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Speaker 1: All right, woman Lake, it is live. It is Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: September twenty, first year of Our Lord, twenty twenty one

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Speaker 1: jam Packed. It's Tuesday, which means it's time to predict

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Speaker 1: some things about the coming weekend. We're already in week four.

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Speaker 1: We've gotten past the quarter pole of the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: one college football season. So of course we've got three

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Speaker 1: games that we're going to hit tonight. We're gonna preview them,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna predict them. We are, of course talking about

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Speaker 1: the game will be at Saturday, which is Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M versus Arkansas. We are going to talk about

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Speaker 1: the game that we were almost at, which is Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame versus Wisconsin. And I'll tell you what, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's going to get a lot of Marquee treatment.

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Speaker 1: There's a game at noon Eastern time on what is

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Speaker 1: it ESPN Saturday that I think is a huge hinge game,

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Speaker 1: so much so that we're going to talk about it tonight.

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Speaker 1: It is LSU at Mississippi State.

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Speaker 2: And again, for those of.

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Speaker 1: You out there who are not LSU or State fans,

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Speaker 1: but you love the sport, this is a game that

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Speaker 1: you need to have a close eye on because again

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Speaker 1: when I say hinge, when we talk about hinge games

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Speaker 1: on this particular show, that means things are going to

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Speaker 1: really really go hard one way or another, potentially depending

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Speaker 1: on the outcome. We have got a brand new JP

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Speaker 1: pole tonight. It's going to be so controversial. I disagree

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Speaker 1: with some of it. Don't know how that happens, but

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Speaker 1: I do. And also we have got another added best

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Speaker 1: bet on the Ramnudle Express, which is just chugging merrily

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Speaker 1: along sixty two percent. It's early, obviously, but we went

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Speaker 1: sixty point nine percent against the number last year, so

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Speaker 1: we're doing okay. Hey, we had a little conundrum and

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Speaker 1: it's not been solved out in the Bomb Shelter office

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Speaker 1: before we went on air tonight. As you know, I

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Speaker 1: always love when you guys hit me up and you

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Speaker 1: tell me number one, where and how you listen to

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Speaker 1: the show, and number two, I love the location. Like

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Speaker 1: I gave shout outs to Pokeatella, I Pokatello because it's

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Speaker 1: the masculine version.

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Speaker 2: If it was the feminine version, it would be.

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Speaker 1: Pokeatella, but Pokeatello Idaho, and they loved it up there Montana.

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Speaker 2: We hit them the other night loaded up there.

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Speaker 1: Well, we got hit up from one of our viewers

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine, and that's the good news. The bad news

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Speaker 1: is neither Colin nor I have the slightest clue how

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Speaker 1: to pronounce this town. So I'm about to play it

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Speaker 1: for you here. You figure this out for me. That place,

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Speaker 1: it's where they're that's where they're watching us. So we

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Speaker 1: really appreciate you guys and yeah watching us tonight, and

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Speaker 1: we appreciate you wherever you are watching us tonight. So

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Speaker 1: we've got a loaded show. Let's dive right in. I

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Speaker 1: would also encourage you. We got a lot of really

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Speaker 1: good feedback today from the Late Cack Extra mail bag

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Speaker 1: that we do every Tuesday morning and Thursday morning. Our

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Speaker 1: numbers have just hockey sticked. We've added thousands and thousands

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Speaker 1: and thousands of listeners per episode there, and it's really

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Speaker 1: fun because it's a lot looser. We just get to

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Speaker 1: more stuff than we get to on Late Caick Live.

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Speaker 1: Late Cack Live's great too. Obviously that's what you're watching

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Speaker 1: right now, but it's just an added element and added layer.

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Speaker 1: It's all driven by you. It's all Q and A.

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Speaker 1: So we released a new episode this morning and I

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Speaker 1: would encourage you to check that out give us a

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Speaker 1: five star review.

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Speaker 2: While you're there, let's predict some games.

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Speaker 1: Boy oh boy, consequential games coming up this weekend. Don't

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Speaker 1: ever let them tell you it's the down week in

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Speaker 1: college football. They tried to tell you that last weekend.

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Speaker 1: Was anyone at the end of the day saying Hugh,

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Speaker 1: this day didn't deliver. No, no, rarely do you say that.

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Speaker 1: So let's dive in here. Arkansas versus Texas A and M.

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Speaker 1: This one is in Dallas. That is the only drawback.

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Speaker 1: Wish it was on campus, but I digress. We're going

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Speaker 1: to be there either way. It's a three thirty Eastern

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Speaker 1: time kickoff. That is where the Rama Noodle Express will

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Speaker 1: probably stop by the end of the week. Hint, hint,

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Speaker 1: But that's absolutely where the Late Kick Renaissance Tour is

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Speaker 1: going to be Saturday. Have you noticed how subtly things

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Speaker 1: are shifting, And by shifting, I mean just the whole

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Speaker 1: perception of Arkansas as a team. Remember in the early

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Speaker 1: portion of let's say preview magazine season, when everyone looked

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Speaker 1: at Arkansas, we were trying to get a record gauge,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we don't really do that on this

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Speaker 1: show all that much. But a lot of people like

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Speaker 1: to predict absolute wins and losses game by game. And

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Speaker 1: everyone looked at Arkansas and they said a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: By and large, they said, Arkansas nice solid team. They

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Speaker 1: also probably won't make a bowl, and so we're not

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Speaker 1: even gonna bother to rank them. Why well not because

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Speaker 1: of the quality of team. Most people admitted, probably a

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Speaker 1: pretty good team. They just looked at the schedule. Schedule

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Speaker 1: is something you look at in summer. Games are what

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Speaker 1: you look at once the season gets here. Well, Arkansas

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Speaker 1: is now playing game by game. You don't play a

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Speaker 1: schedule on Saturday. You play games on Saturday. So when

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Speaker 1: Arkansas welcomed very very unfavorably, might I add the Longhorns

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Speaker 1: into Reynolds Razorback Stadium a couple of weeks ago. That

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Speaker 1: wasn't a schedule, That was just one piece of that schedule,

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Speaker 1: and it was a game they were not favored in,

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Speaker 1: and it was a game they won. So they knocked

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Speaker 1: one of those blocks down from that huge wall you

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Speaker 1: had built between Arkansas and any kind of hope of

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Speaker 1: a legitimate postseason birth. Well, this is another one of

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Speaker 1: those blocks that made up that big wall. But here's

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Speaker 1: again the good news. It's the most basic Senate you

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Speaker 1: could ever say. Arkansas's only playing Texas A and M Saturday.

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Speaker 1: They are only what Jessea five and a half point

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Speaker 1: underdog Saturday. That's not the most insurmountable thing in the world,

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Speaker 1: if you choose to look at it that way.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of people in the preseason didn't.

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Speaker 1: They looked at schedule and they threw any hopes that

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Speaker 1: Arkansas had out in the garbage with what they perceived

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Speaker 1: to be an insurmountable task.

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Speaker 2: Well, now starting to evolve.

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Speaker 1: A little bit because what they do well, they shows

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Speaker 1: you not only could they beat one of those teams

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Speaker 1: they weren't going to be favored against, they could thrash them.

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Speaker 1: And now they get another shot against another team from Texas. Hey,

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Speaker 1: quick question, what if they go to and oh what

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Speaker 1: if they go undefeated against the State of Texas?

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Speaker 2: My do things change very quickly?

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Speaker 1: You still don't think they're going to go to Georgia,

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Speaker 1: and when you still don't think they're going to beat Alabama,

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Speaker 1: But it really wouldn't matter to them because a lot

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Speaker 1: of you don't think they can beat A and M.

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Speaker 1: You didn't think they could beat Texas and so who

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Speaker 1: really cares at that point? So let's dive in here.

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Speaker 1: Zach Calzada is the starting quarterback now for Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M. There are mixed feelings about him out there,

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Speaker 1: even within the A and M fan base, not about

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Speaker 1: his quality of character or anything, just strictly can he

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Speaker 1: play good enough to win the game. Well, unequivocally yes,

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Speaker 1: I think Zach Calzada can play good enough football to

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Speaker 1: beat Arkans. So I think he can play good enough

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Speaker 1: football for A and M if everything else around him

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Speaker 1: clicks to do a lot of damage this season. I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you though, when you go back and you look

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Speaker 1: at his performance, albeit very small sample size, last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, he has turned it over. This has been

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Speaker 1: talked a lot. I know goodwell. A and M fans

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Speaker 1: already tired of hearing about this because they think it's

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Speaker 1: very it's very nitpicky, it's very anecdotal. Been using that

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Speaker 1: word too much. But the fact remains, we have what

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Speaker 1: we have to go on, was Zack Calzada. He did

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Speaker 1: turn it over against Colorado. He d did turn it

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Speaker 1: over against New Mexico last week. And so the reason

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Speaker 1: I say that is because Texas A and M's running

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Speaker 1: backs are very clearly the nucleus of this team right now.

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Speaker 1: And that's good news for Zach Calzada. I don't just

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Speaker 1: mean handing the ball off. I mean passing the ball

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Speaker 1: out of the backfield. That's how they're going to win

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Speaker 1: the game if they win the game. That and avoiding turnovers.

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Speaker 1: But Zach Calzada, one of the keys for them, them

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Speaker 1: being A and M, to win this game Saturday is

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Speaker 1: Calzada has got to at least present the elude vision

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Speaker 1: of balance in play calling. It doesn't matter if it's

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Speaker 1: actually fifty to fifty, but he has to show bury otom.

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Speaker 1: He has to show that Arkansas defensive staff early on

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Speaker 1: that Texas A and M is willing. And here's the

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Speaker 1: other keyword, able to throw the ball or pass the

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Speaker 1: ball almost any down and distant situation. Because I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you what could happen in this game, what could happen

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Speaker 1: for both sides. Now, I think the biggest key to

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Speaker 1: the game actually is early down tendencies, which I think

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Speaker 1: someone's going to fall into the trap of here. See

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Speaker 1: early down tendencies get picked up on sometimes even by

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Speaker 1: fans and broadcasters, but absolutely by the random staffers you

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Speaker 1: have charting such things. And when early down tendencies start

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Speaker 1: to get figured out, they by default create third down tendencies.

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Speaker 1: And third down tendencies are no bueno for either one

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Speaker 1: of those teams, because these teams cannot afford to be

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Speaker 1: predictable on third down because that equals turnovers for either

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Speaker 1: one of them. It probably equals that, and that will

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Speaker 1: be the difference in this game if it does start

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Speaker 1: to happen. The other biggest question here is can Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M make kJ Jefferson, who is the Arkansas quarterback?

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Speaker 1: Can they actually make him throw the ball to win

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Speaker 1: this game? If you're an Arkansas fan right now, you

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Speaker 1: are shaking your head. No, not that you doubt kJ Jefferson.

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Speaker 1: You don't think he's gonna have to throw the ball

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Speaker 1: to win the game. Do you you think you're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to run the ball in Texas A and M?

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Speaker 1: Thus the crux of this entire matchup. Sometimes it's really

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Speaker 1: complicated and sometimes it's not. You got a bunch of

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Speaker 1: folks in College Station, Texas right now saying they are

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Speaker 1: running the ball on us. We are not Texas, and

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Speaker 1: you got a bunch of folks in Favle, Arkansas saying

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Speaker 1: we're gonna run the ball whenever we want to. Eventually

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Speaker 1: that dam will break. You will not be able to

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Speaker 1: withstand this for four quarters, maybe first quarter, maybe quarter

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Speaker 1: and a half. But by the fourth quarter, the game

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Speaker 1: will be ours and the day will be ours because

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Speaker 1: of what we do to you on the ground. And

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Speaker 1: at that point we can pick and choose when kJ

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Speaker 1: Jefferson puts the ball in the air. Those are the

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Speaker 1: two game plans. Obviously, we can't have both of those

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Speaker 1: things play out simultaneously Saturday. Some obviously something's got to give.

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Speaker 1: We don't know the status of Anaya Smith. It was

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Speaker 1: one of the most important and dynamic playmakers for Texas.

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Speaker 1: A and M did a lot of damage against Alabama

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Speaker 1: last year in their big games. He steps up and

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Speaker 1: it's not that he's been ruled out. It's just he

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Speaker 1: got hurt last week in Jimbo Fisher. To this point,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. He's been kind of kind of coy.

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Speaker 1: Why use that word this year, Colin, it's been kind

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Speaker 1: of coy about the status. Hadn't ruled him out. They

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Speaker 1: actually think he's going to play Saturday. To what degree

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Speaker 1: do we get him? Do we get a NYA Smith,

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Speaker 1: Zach Calzada, I'll tell you to his credit did include

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Speaker 1: I think it was seven wide receivers in well, not

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Speaker 1: wide outs. He included seven receivers. They could play all

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Speaker 1: kinds of different positions in their game against New Mexico.

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Speaker 1: So he did establish contact through the air with multiple players.

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Speaker 1: That will probably not be the way Jimbo Fisher and

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M go about attacking Arkansas Saturday. And

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Speaker 1: he knows he being Jimbo Fisher knows goodwell Barry Odom's

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Speaker 1: modus operandi. He is more than happy to sit back

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Speaker 1: and let you give it to him. Don't care if

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Speaker 1: you complete one for twelve yards, fifteen yards, fourteen yards,

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Speaker 1: they don't care. They don't think you can get it

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Speaker 1: done in the red zone. And if you've watched Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M in the red zone, there's good reason

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Speaker 1: to think they will struggle down there. Bury oed them

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Speaker 1: and that defensive staff at Arkansas. They are better, They

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Speaker 1: are deeper, they are more sec caliber and able to

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Speaker 1: rotate a little better in the defensive front. But they

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Speaker 1: still are not Georgia or Alabama. Part B is they

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Speaker 1: don't have to be. They play very complimentary football. They

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Speaker 1: are keenly aware. There is not a program in this

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Speaker 1: conference right now that is more keenly aware of their

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Speaker 1: identity and their strengths and weaknesses and had a game

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Speaker 1: plan around them than Arkansas right now. So I have

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Speaker 1: had a rule that we put on full display on

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Speaker 1: the show last week, and we made money off of it.

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Speaker 1: I always love running towards the teams that are starting

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Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks. When Skylar Thompson was out with Kansas State,

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Speaker 1: we loved them.

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Speaker 2: When Haines King went down with.

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M, we loved them last week, and

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Speaker 1: both teams delivered for us.

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Speaker 2: Well that's rule number one.

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Speaker 1: But rule number two is as soon as we get

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Speaker 1: what we wanted out of those well, as soon as

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Speaker 1: we see I would say, the production that we thought

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Speaker 1: we would get, then we kind of shy away because

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Speaker 1: we don't view it as sustainable. Our model does not

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Speaker 1: view that as sustainable. It's more like a sugar high

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Speaker 1: and eventually it comes down. And by and large, a

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Speaker 1: backup is a backup for a reason. And the more

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Speaker 1: tape that gets out on that backup, the less favorable

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Speaker 1: the matchup's going to be down the road. There are

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Speaker 1: always outliers. Zack Calzada could be an outlier. There are

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Speaker 1: always outliers to that rule. But in general, that's how

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Speaker 1: that works. So Jesse, let's go ahead and take a

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Speaker 1: look at what the model thinks here, and I'm going

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Speaker 1: to tell you what my pick is in just a second. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Vegas line here is we've shown you on the

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Speaker 1: lower third most of this segment is Texas A and

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Speaker 1: M minus five and a half. Our model is well

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Speaker 1: under that number. The model is under a field goal.

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Speaker 1: It has Texas A and M minus two and a half,

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Speaker 1: so it thinks it's going to be a much tighter game.

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Speaker 2: And let me tell you what it came down to.

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Speaker 1: For me, I see no major quarterback edge on the

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Speaker 1: side of the favorite. It's thee no major identity edge

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Speaker 1: on the side of the favorite, which bothers me even

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Speaker 1: more about Texas A and M. I've watched Arkansas play.

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Speaker 1: They are totally aware of who they are and what

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Speaker 1: they are and what they need to do. Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M they look to me like someone who's walking

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Speaker 1: on thin ice and they're trying not to fall through.

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Speaker 1: There is no certainty and confidence behind how they're going

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Speaker 1: about things. It's not totally their fault. They've been dealt

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Speaker 1: a rash of injuries up to an including the quarterback position.

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Speaker 1: But it's football. You know, you recruit the way A

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Speaker 1: ANDM does, so you hopefully can fill those voids. Are

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Speaker 1: they good enough to win this game? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Are they going to? I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: For the first time in nine years, I think Arkansas

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Speaker 1: is actually going to beat Texas A and M. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to take them to win, and of course because

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Speaker 1: of that, we will take Arkansas to cover and we'll

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Speaker 1: be there either way. All right, let's roll on because

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Speaker 1: we've got several more games to pick here. But first,

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Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't matter whether you're on campus or

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Speaker 1: whether you are in a neutral site. You know, there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of games, for example, happening in big

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Speaker 1: time environments that are on campus this weekend. But as

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Speaker 1: I told you when I was in college, well when

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Speaker 1: I was in Happy Valley last week, or whether it

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Speaker 1: was Aims the week before, the tailgate scenes we've.

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Speaker 2: Seen so far this year have been out of this world.

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Speaker 1: And I've gotten feedback from a lot of you who

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Speaker 1: have been out there on the road or well, for you,

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Speaker 1: it may be home. The end stadium environments have been crazy,

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Speaker 1: and those are also reflected in the out.

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Speaker 2: Of stadium environments.

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Speaker 1: They've been crazy, and a lot of you have taken

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Speaker 1: to heading to Academy Sports and Outdoors and purchasing products

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Speaker 1: that you need for those tailgating experiences. One of you

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Speaker 1: bought a grill the other day, or one of you

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Speaker 1: bought a couple of grills. You sent the screenshots to

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Speaker 1: prove it. We appreciate that. Academy appreciates that, but look,

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Speaker 1: you need it anyway, and if you're watching the show,

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Speaker 1: hopefully that means you support the show.

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Speaker 2: So I would just ask.

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Speaker 1: You be nice, be kind, be thoughtful, and support those

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Speaker 1: who support us because they keep the show free. And

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Speaker 1: if you need the tents, and if you need the canopies,

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Speaker 1: and if you need the t shirt to put on

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Speaker 1: your back, or if you need those grills with which

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Speaker 1: to put all assortment of protein on this Saturday, Academy

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Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors is your one stop shop. Quite literally,

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Speaker 1: there's not much you could need on a Saturday in

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Speaker 1: the way of tailgate equipment that they're not going to have.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, a lot of you have taken

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Speaker 1: advantage of the website Academy dot com. You may not

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Speaker 1: have access to an Academy store right there in your

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Speaker 1: back yard. It doesn't matter. Go to Academy dot com

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Speaker 1: and then get that thing shipped right to your door.

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Speaker 1: It's a click it and forget it sort of deal.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if they've patented that saying yet. They should, though,

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Speaker 1: it's not set it and forget it. It's not that

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Speaker 1: wrong code grill. So Academy Sports and Outdoors they are

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Speaker 1: the official outdoor sporting goods supplier of Late Kick, and

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Speaker 1: boy are we glad they are. Okay, let's move it on.

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Speaker 1: I told you when we brought the show on the

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Speaker 1: air tonight. There is a game that is not exactly

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Speaker 1: on the lead marquee for a lot of networks, but boy,

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Speaker 1: it's huge.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you're a more.

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Speaker 1: Diehard college football fan, you just look at the logos

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Speaker 1: LSU in Mississippi State. You just look at these logos

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Speaker 1: and you know, oh, I remember that from last year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: everybody does, and so here we go. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a huge hinge game for LSU. They're favored by two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Are the Bayou Bengals. They're going on

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Speaker 1: the road. This is a noon kickoff. It's a very

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Speaker 1: funny Saturday slate. All three games were breaking down tonight.

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Speaker 1: The Wisconsin Notre Dame games at noon Eastern time, this

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Speaker 1: LSU Mississippi State games at noon Eastern time, the A

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Speaker 1: and m Arkansas games at three point thirty. Most of

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Speaker 1: the big games r out of the way by the

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Speaker 1: time the sun goes down. I'm not bothered by that.

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Speaker 1: Some people are, but this has hinge written all over it.

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Speaker 1: Remember how we talked about Penn State Wisconsin in Week

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Speaker 1: one and how whether Penn State won or lost was

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Speaker 1: going to be a massive hinge moment for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the season.

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Speaker 2: That is where LSU is right now.

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Speaker 1: I want you to picture your stuff living in a

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Speaker 1: world where it is not even It's not even the

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Speaker 1: last week of September and LSU has two losses, one

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Speaker 1: of them do UCLA and one of them Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: You cannot fathom how uncomfortable things would get down in

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Speaker 1: Baton Rouge. They already are, but you know, if this

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Speaker 1: were to happen, I think in a lot of ways.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of not pushing it to the edge of

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Speaker 1: the cliff. It's kind of pushing it over the cliff.

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Speaker 1: Huge hinge moment, because here's the other side of that coin.

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Speaker 1: What happens. If they go into Starkville. They win thirty

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Speaker 1: six to seventeen, passing game clicks, secondary plays a whole

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Speaker 1: lot better, and all of a sudden, you say, oh,

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Speaker 1: that's the LSU team. I thought it was going to

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Speaker 1: show up in week one. As we've said several times

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Speaker 1: in the last week, there's going to be some team

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Speaker 1: out there, maybe more than one, teams that are left

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Speaker 1: for dead, that get off the deck, dust themselves off,

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Speaker 1: look around and realize, look at all these players we have,

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden they find that gear

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Speaker 1: could be LSU. You see what I mean when I

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Speaker 1: say hinge. So we're taking a look at LSU schedule.

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Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, it gets no easier. So

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Speaker 1: they got to get it done this weekend. When you

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Speaker 1: say this out loud, boy, it sounds like it favors LSU,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it. Think about the matchup. Mississippi State does not

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Speaker 1: run it. They are a horrible run team. They don't

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Speaker 1: even pretend to try and do it. You've got the

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Speaker 1: total inverse therefore, of the matchup that gave LSU nightmares

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Speaker 1: in Week one. UCLA ran it all over LSU, And

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Speaker 1: so you may think styles make fights. Well, if they do,

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Speaker 1: and I would agree with that, this couldn't be any

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Speaker 1: different a team than LSU faced and got beat by

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Speaker 1: in Week one. Maybe that means something, maybe it means nothing.

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Speaker 1: But if your strength is through the air, and if

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Speaker 1: we're gonna find a strength of the LSU defense, so

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Speaker 1: far it's the secondary. Even though I'd like to see

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Speaker 1: him play a lot better, you would think the matchup

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Speaker 1: would favor LSU. Shouldn't they win? I mean that's what

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Speaker 1: I would ask, shouldn't they win? Well, Mississippi State, there's

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Speaker 1: if you watch them, you understand what I'm about to say.

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Speaker 1: There's a difference in throwing the ball to win. You

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Speaker 1: can do it a lot of different ways. You could

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Speaker 1: do Clemson versus Alabama circa twenty eighteen and just say

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Speaker 1: our guys are gonna beat your guys and just throw

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Speaker 1: it up and let them win fifty to fifty balls.

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Speaker 1: Or you can scheme guys open and you can acknowledge hey,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of talent in this LSU secondary. There

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Speaker 1: was last year too, and we scheme guys open. Now

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Speaker 1: last year and this year are gonna look totally different

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Speaker 1: because last year it was Bo Polini outright refusing to

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Speaker 1: do anything than run press man coverage all day. So

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Speaker 1: there is a Z word sometimes you insert defensively, it's

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Speaker 1: called zone. I'm not so we may not see it

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Speaker 1: a few more times this Saturday than we.

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Speaker 2: Did last year.

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Speaker 1: But by and large, Mike Leach understands, and that offense

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Speaker 1: is predicated on scheming guys open, at which point it

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Speaker 1: comes down to either execution and or yards after catch

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Speaker 1: as to who's going to win this game. But LSU

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Speaker 1: leads the nation and tackles for loss right now, it's

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Speaker 1: early in the season. There's a reason because of the

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Speaker 1: way games have tilted that they lead the nation, but

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Speaker 1: they do.

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Speaker 2: They're up there in.

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Speaker 1: Sacks, they're up there and tackles for loss. So part

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Speaker 1: B here that LSU's really got to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: is Will Rogers and that Mike Leach offense. It's also

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Speaker 1: predicated on getting the ball out quick, so you're looking

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Speaker 1: at trying to negate a couple of perceived strengths of

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Speaker 1: this LSU defense. It all comes down to execution. It

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Speaker 1: all comes down to winning those early downs, and it

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Speaker 1: all comes down to holding serve. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at LSU on offense, and then you look at the

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Speaker 1: feeling you've had if you've watched them the last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, where it's anything but perfect, but at least

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Speaker 1: you feel like some things are starting to click offensively.

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Speaker 1: You feel like Max Johnson is starting to build some chemistry.

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Speaker 1: The problem is up to and including this very moment,

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Speaker 1: no one has any confidence in ULSU being able to

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Speaker 1: run the ball to win football games. And until that changes,

432
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 1: they're going to be a wildly volatile offensive product. They

433
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 1: are not going to run the ball to win this

434
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 1: game Saturday. They're not. At Oorzeran confirmed it. Tyrian Davis

435
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: probably is going to be a starter. I'd bet you

436
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 1: money he doesn't get the most carries in this game Saturday.

437
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 1: And I'd also bet you money that when we watch LSU,

438
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 1: if they do win, it's going to be because Max

439
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 1: Johnson and this passing game and some of those receivers

440
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 1: that have thus far underachieved started to hit stride a

441
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,239
Speaker 1: little bit that's what it's gonna take. This is not

442
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 1: going to be some Michigan seventeen passes to forty seven

443
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 1: runs type effort. It's going to be throwing the ball.

444
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 1: And as a result, and there's a line of thinking

445
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 1: out there that these defense these defensive units may may

446
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 1: rule the day.

447
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

448
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:51,719
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a game in the

449
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 1: thirties instead of a game in the low to mid twenties.

450
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: And so let's take a look, Jesse, oh boy, roll

451
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 1: the dice here.

452
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: If you will.

453
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the model thinks and

454
00:19:59,240 --> 00:19:59,880
Speaker 1: what the Vegas.

455
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: Number is again.

456
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: Right now at Caesar's, LSU is a two and a

457
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 1: half point favorite our models. Inside of that, it's got

458
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 1: LSU minus one. Here's what I arrived at. I could

459
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 1: find just enough margin to where I liked LSU. So

460
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to take LSU to win. I'm going to

461
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 1: take LSU to cover. And I'm going to tell you

462
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: what I told director Colin out there in the bomb

463
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 1: shelter before the show started. I said, Colin, if you

464
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: wanted to argue with me that Mississippi State's going to

465
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: win this game, I wouldn't push back on you all

466
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: that hard. But if they do, it creates an alternative

467
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,120
Speaker 1: universe in my mind that I just don't think we've

468
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 1: arrived at yet, and the universe that we will enter

469
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 1: on Saturday afternoon. If Mississippi State beats LSU will be

470
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 1: a fundamental shift down there. It will be nothing less

471
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 1: than a fundamental over the cliff type shift, because anybody

472
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 1: who's holding out hope will relinquish that hope if they

473
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 1: being LSU can't get it done Saturday. Thus the definition

474
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: of a hinge game to take LSU to win. I'm

475
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: going to take LSU to cover and hope for you

476
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: all's sake, I'm right down there. How in the world

477
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 1: do I even broach what we're about to have to

478
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 1: talk about here? Okay, so we have had a lot

479
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 1: of fun and a lot of misunderstanding with the JP pole.

480
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: It is a power rating. I cannot, in strong enough

481
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: and slow enough terms explain the difference between a ranking

482
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 1: and a rating. Nothing about this is merit based.

483
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 2: You don't earn the.

484
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: Ability to move up or down. It is only predicated

485
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: on how our model would pit you against another team

486
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 1: if you played on a neutral field this Saturday our

487
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 1: model has had times where it would favor a one

488
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: to two team over a three to zero team. You

489
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 1: are not what your record says you are in terms

490
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 1: of predictability variants in college football. Anybody who is still

491
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 1: under that misguided notion is destined to light their money

492
00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: on fire if they're ever betting on this stuff cheap code.

493
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: Don't bet on it if you think that way. And

494
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: so this is not an ap ballot. This is not

495
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: how I would rank you if I were on the committee.

496
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: If I were on the committee, Iowa would be in

497
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: my top five. Iowa is not in our top ten.

498
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 1: There is a big difference, and odds makers would agree

499
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 1: with that.

500
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: By the way, I.

501
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: Always reach out to them as reference points to make

502
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: sure I'm not crazy. But the reason I'm teeing all

503
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: this up this way is to hopefully avoid a lot

504
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: of unnecessary arguments, but be to tell you, even having

505
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: said that, there is some stuff that this model spat

506
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: out to me that I fundamentally disagree with. So let

507
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: me just show you what it's all about. Jesse. Let's

508
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 1: start at twenty five. We're going to run through it

509
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: right quick, and I'm gonna tell you what I disagree

510
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: with again. Like Jake row put it on Twitter today,

511
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 1: I am a man at war with myself because this

512
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: is essentially my power ratings, and I disagree.

513
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: With some of them.

514
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: Texas Texas keeps floating in and out of the top

515
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: twenty five. They're right there at twenty five. Brigham Young

516
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: has cracked the top twenty five. They're at twenty fourth.

517
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: They go up seven spots. That is one of the

518
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 1: biggest movers up or down this week, and we had

519
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 1: money on them last week, so we appreciate it. Cougar's

520
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 1: TCU drops a few spots twenty three, and sometimes a

521
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: team looks like they have dropped, but in reality what

522
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 1: happens is their actual power ratings unchanged. It's just some

523
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 1: other teams jumped ahead of them, so by default it

524
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: looks like they fell. TCUs at twenty third, Michigan State's

525
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: up six spots. They are to number twenty two, and

526
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: Kentucky is right there, up three spots at number twenty one.

527
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 1: Now let's go to number twenty. We did not drop

528
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: UCLA a whole lot because we think a really, really

529
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,719
Speaker 1: good Fresno State team beat them. Fresno, by the way,

530
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: is our twenty sixth team, so they're one spot outside

531
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: the top twenty five. UCLA's at twenty. They are down

532
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: three Notre Dame even in a win. We dropped them

533
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: because the more we get into the season, the more

534
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 1: obviously the model starts baking in this year's numbers and

535
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: relinquishing preseason default settings. And Notre Dame has not shown

536
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: the propensity to perform at anything relatively close to a

537
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 1: top fifteen level yet, and so they're at nineteen. Auburn

538
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: jumps five spots in a loss, because that's how a

539
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 1: power rating works, they are at number eighteen. Now Arkansas's

540
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: up two spots to seventeen. Listen, the model actually loved

541
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 1: that Arkansas took care of business against Georgia Southern.

542
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 2: That's a game that was off everyone's radar.

543
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: But Arkansas did above and beyond from a point spread standpoint,

544
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: what they were supposed to do, so they jumped two spots.

545
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's down four spots. I'm not even sure they played

546
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: last week, but this is a situation where some teams

547
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 1: jumped ahead of them and their ratings stayed relatively unchanged.

548
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: If anything, Wisconsin's rating, I think we ticked a little

549
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 1: bit up because they have a game against Penn State

550
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: baked into their rating, and Penn State continues to rise.

551
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: So that was actually a good thing for Wisconsin. Even

552
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: though they didn't play top fifteen. We go Iowa State

553
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 1: and Iowa Iowa was fourteenth Iowa State's fifteen. We view

554
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: those teams as dead even right now there are percentage

555
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: points difference. North Carolina is interesting. The model has North

556
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: Carolina up five spots. It has not given up on

557
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: the tar Heels. They are at number thirteen right now.

558
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 1: The most diametrically opposed team stylistically in America from North

559
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: Carolina is Michigan.

560
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 2: Michigan is at twelve.

561
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: I went back last night and watched their entire game

562
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: against Northern Illinois. They are a team with an unmistakable identity.

563
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: It may cost him down the road if they get

564
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 1: down early and they have to play catchup. It may

565
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: cost them, But I credit them at least Jim Harball

566
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 1: was feeling some horrible questions this week.

567
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: By the way, in press conferences. I credit them.

568
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 1: For figuring out something they want to be instead of

569
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: dabbling in a whole lot. It's not the direction I

570
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: thought they'd be going when they hired Josh Gaddis a

571
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 1: few years ago. It's probably not the direction Harball thought

572
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: he'd be going, but they have and they're blowing people

573
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: off the line of scrimmage. Cannot wait to see them

574
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 1: against Rutgers Saturday. That sentence just came out of my mouth.

575
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: We have got swear We at number eleven Texas A

576
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 1: and M. This is again with Zach Calzada being their

577
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 1: starter temporarily factored in. So if Haines King re emerged

578
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 1: today without them even playing a game, just his overall

579
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: player rating would.

580
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 2: Vault them back up into the top ten.

581
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: What I'm trying to say is Calzada still has something

582
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: to prove to us. Number ten. Boy, this is a

583
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 1: big drop. I mean it's a really big drop. You

584
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: don't see this very often. The Clemson Tigers dropped to

585
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: number ten because again this week, the model started to

586
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 1: heavily factor in this year's results, and it shaved off

587
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:29,239
Speaker 1: an entire layer again proportionately of preseason default ratings. And

588
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: if you're just factoring in this year, and that's what

589
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: the model is starting to do more and more, Boy, Clemson,

590
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: it doesn't like him at all. Clemson barely in the

591
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: top ten. Right now, they're down six spots. I agree

592
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: with that. Ohio State is down two more spots to

593
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: number nine. If you told me, even if they've lost games,

594
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: if you told me Ohio State and Clemson would both

595
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: be out the top eight by the time we get

596
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: to week four, I would have questioned, well, I would

597
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: have questioned what model you're using. Well, I'm using mind

598
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: and there they are. Some of you don't think they've

599
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 1: fallen far enough. I'm telling you that's right for a

600
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,479
Speaker 1: power rating, because keep in mind, in our model, we

601
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: are heavily factoring in talent level. And it has to

602
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: tell you a lot because it's hard. It's very hard

603
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 1: to ever see a roster as loaded as Ohio State

604
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: or Clemson anywhere outside the top five, even if they

605
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: lose games, because it's about forward thinking and who would.

606
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 2: Be favored against two.

607
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 1: The Vegas folks still have both of them top seven,

608
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 1: top six.

609
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 2: I think they may have them top five.

610
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: We don't. We don't. We just run things a little

611
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: bit differently. So Florida is at number eight now. I

612
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: mean Florida, there was no question they were going to

613
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 1: move up. We increase their power rating. The only question

614
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: was how far were they going to move up? And

615
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: only because of Cincinnati and Oregon really performing well did

616
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: Florida not move up further.

617
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 2: So they're at number eight right now.

618
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: We got Cincinnati at seven, virtually unchanged, We've got Oregon

619
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: at six, virtually unchanged, and then we get into the

620
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 1: top five. We are the outlier on Old Miss. We

621
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 1: have been all year. I think the AP just now

622
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: has Old where we had them in the preseason. We've

623
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: got Old Miss at number five. Let me break it

624
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: down for you this way. There are not five other

625
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: teams that our model would pick against Ole Miss on

626
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: a neutral field tomorrow. And that's all this is about.

627
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: That's all this model is about. Number four is Penn State.

628
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: You want a fascinating dichotomy of styles. If I were

629
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 1: to put those two on a field tomorrow, what would

630
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: it look like. Would it be a first to forty

631
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: or would it be a first to twenty four? I

632
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 1: don't know. Here's where I'm thoroughly aggravated with the model.

633
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's not the third best team in the country.

634
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: There's no way. There is absolutely no way.

635
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: But I've told you above and beyond anything, we have

636
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: built this to take feelings and gut and emotion out

637
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: of it. So I wholeheartedly disagree with this. If you

638
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: guys are pushing back out there on Oklahoma being third

639
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: right now, you have my blessing. There is no prayer

640
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: I would pick Oklahoma to beat Old Miss right now.

641
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: I don't think I would pick them to beat Penn

642
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: State right now. But I will tell you what's happening here,

643
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: even if I disagree with that. The model is looking

644
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: again at player, overall talent rating, overall unit rating. It's

645
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: looking at that. It's looking at everything up to an

646
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: including coordinator and head coaching grades. But it's also looking

647
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: at the fact that it does not believe Oklahoma has

648
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: played its complete game. We always view games as the

649
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: grab claw machine. There are one hundred versions in there,

650
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: and each Saturday you just draw one out and it

651
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: just thinks Oklahoma's had some bad draws. I disagree with this.

652
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: I don't think Oklahoma is as good a team maybe

653
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: as the model things. I know this sounds very confusing

654
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: because it's my model, it's our model.

655
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 2: Doesn't mean I have to agree with it all the time.

656
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: So I wholeheartedly disagree with Oklahoma at three Georgia at two. Yep,

657
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: I'm on board, Alabama at one, yep, I'm on board.

658
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: We have a nine. I think it's a seven point

659
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: nine point gap between number two and number three, and

660
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: I can assure you, friends, I think the gap probably

661
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: is a little bit wider than that. I always tell

662
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: you if there are any kind of analog data comparative points,

663
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: at least those words in some order makes sense if

664
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: this year is synonymous within a year, if the model

665
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 1: is starting to ping that and it keeps ping in

666
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,239
Speaker 1: twenty eleven and that was the year that you had

667
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: two SEC teams in Bama and LSU just continue to

668
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: distance themselves from the pack. And right now, through four weeks,

669
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: of course, or through three weeks, the model is saying

670
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: this has a very twenty eleven feel to it, and

671
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: that we've got two SEC teams here, Bama and Georgia,

672
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: and then there's this growing chasm every week. First time

673
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: we've used that word on the air this year between

674
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: number two and the rest of the field. Now, what's

675
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: equally as interesting is there is no second gap right now.

676
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: Normally what you have is you have a Tier one gap,

677
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: Tier two another gap, and then it's just a bunch

678
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: of hodgepodge, bunch of alphabet soup.

679
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: We don't have that.

680
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: We got one tier and it's two teams deep, and

681
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: then everything else is wide open. That spells renaissance season.

682
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this too. Now, this is just

683
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: something to watch. There is a lot of argument out

684
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: there that Georgia should be number one right now. And

685
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: I get the argument. If you're filling out an AP ballot,

686
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: go for it.

687
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: I don't care.

688
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: I never even know what the AP has said until

689
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: Colin comes in here and tells me half the time.

690
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: But I will tell you this. Alabama played Miami in

691
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: Week one, remember that. Yeah, And Miami at the time

692
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: was a top twenty team and Bama thrashed him, and

693
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: so everyone for one week at least anointed Alabama as

694
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: the overwhelming best team in the country. And then there

695
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: was a gap, and then there was everyone else. Remember that,

696
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: even though Georgia had beaten Clemson, there was a gap

697
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: and there was everyone else. And then you obviously saw

698
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: Bama struggle, albeit in a win against Florida, and in retrospect,

699
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: they were doing that about the same time Miami was

700
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 1: getting woodshdded at home against Michigan State, and so you

701
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: were able to say, you know, in retrospect, Miami wasn't

702
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: all that impressive a win. We should have known. Maybe

703
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: we overinflated that win. Well, friends, that's happening with Georgia two,

704
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: and no one seems to realize it. Clemson's not a

705
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: good football team right now relative to what you expect

706
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: them to be. And George beat them ten to three

707
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: in week one, and there is some lofty praise being

708
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: passed around for Georgia right now. And I'm telling you,

709
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: you do not talk things into existence. You do not

710
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: write things into existence. There is some vulnerability on that

711
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: Georgia defense. It looks impenetrable right now. I know that

712
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: there's gonna come a time, even against a relatively inferior

713
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: schedule for Georgia, where someone's gonna throw the ball on them.

714
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: Someone's gonna move the ball a little bit better. My

715
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: point is, I'm starting to see that over inflation that

716
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: happened with Alabama for a couple of weeks is happening with

717
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: Georgia right now. It'll cycle. You'll see someone push Georgia

718
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: more than they should, and all of a sudden you'll

719
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: start asking the same questions about Georgia. But even when

720
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 1: that happens, as much as it sounds like I'm saying

721
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: george is overrated right now, I'll then be there to

722
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: tell you no, no, no, no, Georgia not overrated.

723
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 2: You may have had them overrated.

724
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: We think we've got them properly rated, and we're telling you,

725
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: even after you saw Georgia struggle a little bit, they're

726
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: still that much better. And then we'll be able to

727
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: go to work. So right now, Jesse the full screen.

728
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: There is a lot of disagreement. In my own head.

729
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: It's a staff of one here on the poll. We

730
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: got a lot of disagreement because Oklahoma, that paper that

731
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: this is written on it has a smell to it.

732
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: That's how suspicious that is that Oklahoma's at number three.

733
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,719
Speaker 1: I don't like it. Okay, let's move on. Let's got

734
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: I got one more game to predict. Actually we put

735
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: it at the end. I kind of forgot about this.

736
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: Notre Dame Wisconsin. This game is Saturday at Soldier Field

737
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: at high noon eleven local time there and Wisconsin's favored

738
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: by six. What do we think about this? Because I

739
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: don't think a lot of you saw that coming in

740
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: the preseason. What do we think about this interesting dynamics

741
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: in play. It's like a whole dynamics game, cause the

742
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: postgame win probability metrics tell you Wisconsin's undefeated, but the

743
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: scoreboard tells you otherwise.

744
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 2: It says they lost. In week one, they did.

745
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go through the box score again,

746
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: but those it was one of those games where Wisconsin

747
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: they outgain. First down edge was insane time, a possession

748
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: edge was in saying the yard jadge, all that stuff,

749
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 1: but turnovers cost them a game. Inefficiency in the red

750
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: zone cost them a game. Well that means what, Well,

751
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 1: it means they're a one loss team. But from a

752
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 1: dynamics standpoint, Notre Dame also was on the ropes in

753
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: Week one, but they happen to win. And they've been

754
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 1: on the ropes again since then, but they've happened to win.

755
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: But from a again future thinking standpoint, from a forward

756
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: thinking predictability standpoint, the records are thrown out like the

757
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's the better team. Like that's what they're telling you,

758
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 1: even with one loss, they're the better team. Notre Dame

759
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: has not had to pay the price for their ineffectiveness

760
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: yet Wisconsin has That's what I'm telling you, And from

761
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: a dynamics standpoint, that puts Wisconsin back then to the

762
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: corner badger and all. They are the wounded animal here.

763
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: They are in must win mode. They're the one in

764
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: desperation mode. There's still a safety net under Notre Dame.

765
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: There is not under Wisconsin. Jack Cone is going to

766
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: be talked about a lot this this week, And unlike

767
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: some cases where the storyline crowd just has it all wrong,

768
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: I think Jack Cone actually is the most important player

769
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 1: in this game, the one time Wisconsin quarterback now piloting

770
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: the offense for Tommy Reese and Notre Dame.

771
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 2: I would not be surprised.

772
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 1: Well, you know what, I take this back, I started

773
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: to say it the wrong way. I'd be very surprised.

774
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: If Notre Dame has a ton of success on the ground,

775
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: and because of that, it's probably going to be on

776
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 1: Jack Cone. If they move the ball offensively, it's probably

777
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: going to be on him. Stands to reason he is

778
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Now. The good news is if we were

779
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: just running seven on seven, if we were just running

780
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: skeleton here, there are some plays to be had on

781
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 1: that Wisconsin secondary Jack Cone is good enough to make

782
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: some of those plays. He's had some good numbers this

783
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 1: fall so far. Here's the bad news. I don't know

784
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 1: how much time he's going to be given, which is

785
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: why that passing on early downs, you know, three step drop,

786
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: quick slant game, the screen game, it's going to be imperative.

787
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: They got to manufacture some loosening of that box early

788
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: on early downs, and they've also I had to establish

789
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: them rhythm and tempo and actually move the ball a

790
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: little bit because what we don't want to see here

791
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: is we don't want to turn this game on and

792
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: there's two minutes to go in the first quarter and

793
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: it's just been three series of three and outs for

794
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Because if that happens, it's going to be

795
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: hard to settle in to anything that even reeks of

796
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: rhythm for them. So that's important on early downs early

797
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: in the game. But this strange shift is started to happen.

798
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: I felt it this week. If you have listened to

799
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: anyone talk about this game, you've probably felt it this week.

800
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: A lot of people have looked as I just did

801
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: at Notre Dame's relative inefficiency offensively and just as a

802
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: team overall, they've looked at him and they've said that's

803
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: not going to work against Wisconsin. Afraid not guys, even

804
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 1: some Notre Dame fans feel that way, And so I

805
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 1: get it, like there's a lot of validity if you're

806
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: looking at Notre Dame in a vacuum. But can I

807
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: ask you this, when in the world did Graham Mertz

808
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 1: all of a sudden become a quarterback that everyone is

809
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 1: tripping over each other to cast their lot with. Graham

810
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 1: Mertz has been bad under pressure so far this year,

811
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: like this Wisconsin offense, I'm kind of disappointed in because

812
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 1: I thought there'd be more than they are. So I'm

813
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: telling you I agree that the right team is favored here.

814
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 1: I'm about to give you my prediction in a second,

815
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 1: But there is no ton of confidence to be had

816
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: picking Wisconsin in this game. Even if you've got a

817
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 1: model like we do that's gonna lean solidly one way

818
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: or solidly the other. This is gonna be a game

819
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 1: where one bob play, one bounce of ball play could

820
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 1: be the difference an outcome. This is not some offense

821
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: that is waiting to strike. You're not going to see

822
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: the Graham Mertz of Week one and it's still Ainois

823
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: last year in other words, or if you do, it's

824
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 1: gonna be something different than we've seen so far this year.

825
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: So if we were to flip the Week one results,

826
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 1: what would the line look like. If let's say FSU

827
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: were to make one more play and they beat Notre

828
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: Dame in overtime, it wouldn't mean the teams are any different.

829
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: If Wisconsin has one less turnover against Penn State and

830
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: they win in Week one, if the teams wouldn't.

831
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 2: Be any different.

832
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: A couple of plays would be different, the record would

833
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 1: be different, but the quality of teams as it relates

834
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: to this Saturday, they wouldn't be any different. Points spread would.

835
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: I think the point spread would look a whole lot different.

836
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 1: There's a lot of perception I think based or baked

837
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: into this line, and I normally want to be contrarian

838
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 1: with that, but I can't do it because I also

839
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: think that through three weeks now, I don't think it's

840
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: just random happenstance. I think Notre Dame has shown us

841
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,720
Speaker 1: who they are, and when teams do you the favor

842
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 1: of showing you who they are, you need to believe them.

843
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 1: Do yourself a favor and believe them. So let's take

844
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 1: a look, Jesse at what the model says. And I'm

845
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: going to tell you it says that Wisconsin is right

846
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: to be favored as much as they are. So I

847
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: actually sent Jesse a wrong number. I see it now.

848
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: Wisconsin is favored by six in Vegas. True enough, our

849
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: model actually has Wisconsin by seven, not four as it

850
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: says on the screen, and I agree with that. There's

851
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: not a ton of confidence, by the way, behind my

852
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: pick of Graham Merch, but I agree with that. I

853
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: think Wisconsin's got more edge here. I think they're going

854
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: to own the line of scrimmage a lot more. I

855
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: think Wisconsin's going to win the game, and I actually

856
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: think they're going to cover in a matchup that ends

857
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: up feeling a whole lot like Penn State versus Auburn

858
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 1: last week.

859
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: There was never a.

860
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: Time where Penn State's pulling away, But the cumulative effect

861
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: of incremental margins over the span of four quarters gives

862
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: you a twenty eight to twenty win, And I.

863
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 2: Think that's kind of the final that.

864
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: You're going to see here, somewhere in that range with Wisconsin,

865
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: having enough edges. But that game at noon very interesting.

866
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: I'm all for it. I love the early games, but

867
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 1: most of you don't.

868
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: I get it.

869
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: But we'll take Wisconsin to win and Wisconsin to cover.

870
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: All right, final order of business here, we got another

871
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: best bet to add to the Ram and Noodle Express.

872
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 1: So far, we've handled out four. We came out four.

873
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 1: That's a record. I checked the archives. That is a

874
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: record for the Sunday Show. Well, now we've given out five.

875
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: If you were following on Twitter earlier today, I hope

876
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 1: you were at late Kick Josh. The number already moved.

877
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 1: Some say we moved it. I'm not one of those people,

878
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: but some say we moved it. So here's what we

879
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: have so far. We've got Army minus six and a half.

880
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: That one moved as soon as we put it out.

881
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 1: You've probably missed the opportunity to get on that one.

882
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: If you weren't following Central Michigan minus ten and a half.

883
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: They're playing fiu Utah State plus nine and a half.

884
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: They are playing Boise, San Jose State plus one and

885
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 1: a half at Western Michigan. I'm going to go back

886
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: to that game in a second. Here's the newest edition

887
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 1: Colorado plus fourteen and a half. They are playing Arizona

888
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: State on the road. Our model has an eighty one

889
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 1: percent cover probability on Colorado. So either it's broken or

890
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: this is like the lock of the century. And I

891
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 1: don't believe in locks, but I also don't believe the

892
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 1: model's totally broken. We are going to take Colorado. I mean, guys,

893
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: give a good, full hearted effort, lose by eight, and

894
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: we'll be proud of you this San Jose State game.

895
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 2: Let me tell you.

896
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: Why they're a dog. I still believe in them, We're

897
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 1: still betting them. They played at Hawaii last week.

898
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 2: That is a hall.

899
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:58,879
Speaker 1: I don't care if you're on the West coast, that's

900
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: a hall. Then when they come back and now they've

901
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: got to go on the road again to Kalamazoo, Michigan,

902
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: and that is a tough back to back road stretch.

903
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 1: Like I'm over here feeling if I'm feeling bad for

904
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: Arkansas because they got to get on a plane three

905
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: weeks in a row to go to Dallas, Athens and Oxford,

906
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: And meanwhile you got San Jose State flying halfway to

907
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 1: Japan kind of literally, and then flying halfway to Europe

908
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: kind of literally, and so boy it's gonna be tough,

909
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: but we're gonna take him anyway.

910
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: Look at me chopping up, Jesse. It's probably just cause

911
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: I'm talking about fast.

912
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: If you're on podcast, be thankful, all right, since our

913
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: video is about to go, I think I'll go to

914
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: thank you so much for watching, for director Colin and

915
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 1: our entire crew in Connecticut.

916
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: I'm Josh Pate.

917
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: Have a great rest of your evening, and God bless