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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat fitz

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Speaker 1: Morris here with Beau mcbraer, king of the long Shots.

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Speaker 1: Today we're gonna preview the Valero Texas Open from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective. We will also recap the Houston Open, and

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Speaker 1: at the end of the show, we will give you

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Speaker 1: our one and done picks for the week. The Betting

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Speaker 1: pros PGA Podcast is sponsored by Underdog. Fantasy Underdog is

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Speaker 1: the place to go for fantasy football bestball contest, but

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Speaker 1: you might not have known that Underdog also has golf contests.

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Speaker 1: Sign up for Underdog if you haven't already with the

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Speaker 1: promo code b p Golf to get your first deposit

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Speaker 1: matched up to one hundred dollars. Plus there's a special

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Speaker 1: pick available for you in the lobby. More on Underdog

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Speaker 1: and its golf contest a little later. Scotti Scheffler played

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Speaker 1: at tournament and did not win bow, but he came really,

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Speaker 1: really close. Steven Jeger survived in action packed Sunday at

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Speaker 1: the Houston Open. He finished twelve under to win by

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Speaker 1: one shot over Scheffler, Thomas Dietree, Taylor Moore, Tony Fino,

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Speaker 1: and Bao mcbrayer's sleeper pick extraordinaire Alejandro Toasty. Jeger shot

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Speaker 1: four rounds in the sixties and had a final round

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Speaker 1: sixty seven that was good enough, but Yeger did not

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Speaker 1: exactly grab the tournament by the lapels. On Sunday, shot

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Speaker 1: three hundred par thirty two on the front side, but

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Speaker 1: then Yeger merely parted out on the back nine nine

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Speaker 1: straight pars that proved to be just enough. Scheffler seemed

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Speaker 1: poised to win this thing after firing a sixty six

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, but he made a costly bogie on the

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Speaker 1: par three sixteenth going down the stretch on Sunday. Sixteen

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Speaker 1: was a nightmare haul for Scheffler. Double bogie on Saturday

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Speaker 1: when his approach shots spun back off the green into

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Speaker 1: the water, and yeah so then Scheffler birdie's seventeen a

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Speaker 1: par five to keep himself alive on Sunday, hits his

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Speaker 1: approach shot to six feet and just missed the pott

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Speaker 1: that would have forced the playoff left at low side

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Speaker 1: on the left, and there was Steven Jeger got his

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Speaker 1: first PGA Tour win. The tournament was really there for

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Speaker 1: the taking for a lot of these guys. Bo not

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Speaker 1: only Scheffler, but Tony Finow shot a sixty two on

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Speaker 1: Friday and held the lead at nine hunder par going

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Speaker 1: into the weekend, but final shot a two over par

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Speaker 1: seventy two on Saturday. Had to play catch up Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Birdied his last two holes, but it was too little,

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Speaker 1: too late. Alejandro Tosti, man so close the little powder

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Speaker 1: Keg from Argentina, went off at four hundred to one

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Speaker 1: to win the tournament. Bo You touted him as a

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Speaker 1: compelling long shot on last week's show. Compelling indeed right

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Speaker 1: there for him. He had four straight rounds of sixty

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Speaker 1: eight or better and after a birdie on number sixteen

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, he was tied for the league. Toasty is

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Speaker 1: only five foot six, but he is a big hitter.

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Speaker 1: I thought he had a chance to drive the green

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Speaker 1: on seventeen, three hundred and twenty nine yard par four,

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Speaker 1: but Toasty hung his drive out to the left, had

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Speaker 1: to pitch on two, putted for par, and then on

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Speaker 1: eighteen missed the green with his approach shot, didn't get

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Speaker 1: his chip very close to about eighteen feet, missed the

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Speaker 1: pot and the dream was dead.

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Speaker 2: Bo at the Valspar Championship.

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Speaker 1: You recommended Kevin Roy, who was five hundred to one

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Speaker 1: to win, and Roy contended all the way into Sunday.

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Speaker 1: This past week, you came up with Alejandro Toasty at

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Speaker 1: four hundred to one and darn near won it. I

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Speaker 1: know you still made some money on him anyway, So

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Speaker 1: talk to me about that. Talk to me about Yeager's

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Speaker 1: first win, Scottie Scheffler's near miss, anything that struck you

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Speaker 1: from the Houston Open.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of it's luck. I mean, we have

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Speaker 3: all these great golfers, especially Scotti chef flat down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: I fully expected him to make that five footer on

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Speaker 3: eighteen to force the playoff with Yaeger. But then again

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Speaker 3: I also expected Toasty to get up and down for

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Speaker 3: a par on eighteen to force the playoff with Yaeger.

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Speaker 3: I was under the impression, with a couple holes left

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Speaker 3: to play that we were gonna have a three man

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Speaker 3: playoff with Yaeger, Toasty and Scheffler, and it ended up.

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Speaker 3: The Jaeger's par fest on the back nine turned out

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Speaker 3: to be just good enough to avoid all of that hoopla,

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Speaker 3: and it broke my heart because I had a lot

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Speaker 3: of tickets I know a lot of you all that

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Speaker 3: watched the show and listen to our stuff and read

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Speaker 3: our stuff. We're on Toasty with me. I know you

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Speaker 3: tailed me pat It. It was just a heartbreaking moment

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Speaker 3: when he couldn't get up and down on eighteen. That

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Speaker 3: chip shot was terrible and when he hit it eighteen

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Speaker 3: feet past, I was like, there's no ways making that

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Speaker 3: to keep the dream alive. But we will rebuild, we

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Speaker 3: will check out the whole board for the next tournament.

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Speaker 3: And it's it's a lot of luck, but it's also

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Speaker 3: just finding guys that are just too good for the

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Speaker 3: course compared to their odds. That's what this whole show

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Speaker 3: is about. It's not about playing necessarily the best plays

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Speaker 3: in a vacuum. You have to consider what their number

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Speaker 3: is and maybe just how they fit the golf course

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Speaker 3: and how they're playing right now. This is a lot

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Speaker 3: of it comes down to just how well they're playing,

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Speaker 3: how well they're feeling. We can glean recent data to

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Speaker 3: point us in the right direction. So let's do it again.

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Speaker 3: Let's go three weeks in a row, Let's carry it

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Speaker 3: right into Augusta, and let's hit one this time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, even though Toasty couldn't seal the deal. You got

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Speaker 1: some love from some of our viewers who shouted you

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Speaker 1: out for the close one and encouraged you to keep

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Speaker 1: digging up those gems, those hidden gems, because there were

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Speaker 1: definitely some people who telled you on that one, and

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Speaker 1: it was, you know, so painful to come that close

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Speaker 1: and have it slipped through our fingers. So we will

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Speaker 1: get to the Valero Texas Open in just a minute,

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Speaker 1: but first, our friends at Underdog Fantasy are letting you

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Speaker 1: make picks on your favorite golfers all season long. Just

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Speaker 1: pick higher or lower on selected stats for two to

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Speaker 1: five golfers and you can win up to twenty times

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Speaker 1: your money in a single day. You can also make

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Speaker 1: rivals picks, choosing, for example, which of two golfers will

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Speaker 1: shoot a better score in a round. Golf picks can

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Speaker 1: be combined with player stats from other sports too. Go

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Speaker 1: sign up at Underdog Fantasy with the promo CODEVP Golf

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Speaker 1: to get your first deposit matched up tow one hundred dollars,

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Speaker 1: plus there's a special pick available for you in the lobby.

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Speaker 1: Just one more event before the Masters bo and the

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Speaker 1: final tune up is the Valero Texas Open, which will

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Speaker 1: be played at TPZ San Antonio.

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Speaker 2: The Oaks Course.

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Speaker 1: It's a Greg Norman design par seventy two seven, four

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight yards. The fairways in narrow, but

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Speaker 1: the rough at the Oaks Course is not very penal

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Speaker 1: at all. So you're probably gonna be okay if you

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Speaker 1: miss the fair win and end up in the intermediate cuts.

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Speaker 1: But you're probably not gonna be okay if you miss

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Speaker 1: big off the teep because there are trees. It's called

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Speaker 1: the Oaks Course for a reason, after all. There's some

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Speaker 1: heavy underbrush in spots. You can ask Kevin Nah about that.

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Speaker 1: Kevin Not famously made a sixteen on the ninth hole

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Speaker 1: at the Oaks Course a few years ago when he

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Speaker 1: put his drive into some dense underbrush a thicket if

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Speaker 1: you will. And there are lots of bunkers, seventy two

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Speaker 1: of them on the course, I believe.

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Speaker 2: And there's wind.

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Speaker 1: This is Texas after all, although the wind might not

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Speaker 1: be that bad this week. They're expecting wins in the

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Speaker 1: five to ten mile per hour range for Thursday and Sunday,

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Speaker 1: wins in the ten to twenty mile an hour range

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Speaker 1: Friday and Saturday. So breezy at times, but not insanely windy.

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Speaker 1: This course does tend to be extremely firm, and the

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Speaker 1: greens can be hard to hold the greens and regulation

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Speaker 1: percentage of TPC saying Ittonio is under sixty percent. Not

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Speaker 1: a long course, but precise ball striking is definitely a requirement.

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Speaker 2: Just look at who the defending champion is.

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Speaker 1: It's Corey Connors, a terrific ball striker, not such a

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Speaker 1: great potter. Opened with the sixty four last year and

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Speaker 1: then did just enough in his next three rounds to

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Speaker 1: win by a stroke over Sam Stevens with a winning

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Speaker 1: score of minus fifteen. Connors also won here in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Other recent winners JJ Spahn here won here in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two with the score of thirteen under par, two

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Speaker 1: shots better than Matt Coocher and Matt Jones. Dallas native

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Speaker 1: Jordan Speith won here in twenty twenty one, posting a

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Speaker 1: score of minus eighteen, two strokes better than Charlie Hoffman,

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Speaker 1: who won here in twenty sixteen. And let's see what else.

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Speaker 1: No tournament in twenty twenty because of COVID. Corey Connors

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Speaker 1: won in twenty nineteen, Andrew Land Andrew Landry won in

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, Kevin Chapel in twenty s seventeen. But what

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Speaker 1: are you looking for when you're trying to find betting

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Speaker 1: value at TPC San Antonio.

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Speaker 3: Right off the bat, I'm noticing some first timers that

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Speaker 3: have entered the fray. We have Colin more Kawa's in

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Speaker 3: this field now for the first time because of the

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Speaker 3: way the schedule kind of got shuffled about this year.

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Speaker 3: The Masters field isn't necessarily taking this week off. Scotti,

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Speaker 3: Scheffler's not here, a couple of the top guys aren't here,

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Speaker 3: but there's plenty of guys that are here that are

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Speaker 3: going to change the way we think about this tournament,

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Speaker 3: which is typically your guys trying to get FedEx Cup

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Speaker 3: points before the Masters instead of just tuning up for

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Speaker 3: the Masters if they're in that field. We have a

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Speaker 3: good number of guys who are at the top of

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Speaker 3: this board who are using this as a tune up,

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Speaker 3: and it is a pretty decent one. Although the course

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Speaker 3: is pretty bland by tour standards. It's got on the

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Speaker 3: longer side, top ten and distance, but it's also it's

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Speaker 3: a challenge for the guys who haven't been chipping well,

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Speaker 3: they say. If you have guys who have struggled with

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Speaker 3: short game or struggle with windy conditions, I have a

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Speaker 3: feeling that they're going to struggle here. Corey Connors overcame

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Speaker 3: a a horrendous short game last year. His short game

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Speaker 3: is not any better. It's probably a lot worse this

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Speaker 3: year than it was last year. But he overcame that

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Speaker 3: with how good his ball striking was, and a lot

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Speaker 3: of the times you can get away with that if

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Speaker 3: you're coming in hot, and so some of these guys are.

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Speaker 3: They're just a little bit inflated as far as betting

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Speaker 3: odds go, because I don't imagine some of these favorites

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Speaker 3: even coming close to winning this tournament because of the

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Speaker 3: condition of their short game, which is going to be

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Speaker 3: put on very strong emphasis this week. It's going to

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Speaker 3: be approach and around the green, very heavy off the tee.

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Speaker 3: Not like you said, the rough isn't that penal. So

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Speaker 3: as long as you're not crazy wayward under the oaks

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Speaker 3: and in the acorns with the with the chipmunks, you'll

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Speaker 3: be fine. As long as you can have an angle

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Speaker 3: to the green. It's going to be approach and around

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Speaker 3: the green and making birdies where they are present. Avoiding

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Speaker 3: the big number is obviously important, but some of these

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Speaker 3: guys are overinflated, and some of these guys are getting

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Speaker 3: no respect at all from the betting odds. So those

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Speaker 3: are the ones we are attacking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll get to those odds in just one minute.

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Speaker 1: But first, if you want a chance to win a

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Speaker 1: free one year premium Betting Pro subscription, subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment below in this video,

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Speaker 1: and that's it. We'll be announcing a winner right here

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Speaker 1: on the channel, So turn on those notifications to be

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Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

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Speaker 2: All right, bo, let's look at the odds.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we should start with the long shots,

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Speaker 1: just because I'm so anxious to see what you're gonna

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Speaker 1: unearth this week, but we will adhere to tradition and

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Speaker 1: start with the favorites. No Scheffler this week, So Rory

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Speaker 1: McElroy opens with the shortest odds in the field at

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Speaker 1: plus eight hundred, Ludwig Obert plus eleven hundred, Jordan Spieth,

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Speaker 1: Hideki Matsuyama and Max Homa or plus eighteen hundred, the

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Speaker 1: aforementioned Colin Morikawa is plus two thousand, Corey Connors plus

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Speaker 1: twenty two hundred, Matthew Fitzpatrick plus twenty five hundred, Tommy

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Speaker 1: Fleetwood plus twenty eight hundred, and Alex Norin plus three thousand.

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Speaker 1: Do you like anyone from this group?

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Speaker 3: Bo Well, right off the bat. I run my first

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Speaker 3: model this afternoon, and Ludwig Oberg and Rory McElroy are

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Speaker 3: one and two. Just like in the odds, they's just

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Speaker 3: flip flops. So looking at Oberg there for number one

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Speaker 3: in my model, Rory being shorter odds doesn't appeal to

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Speaker 3: me that much because eight to nine to one, that's okay.

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Speaker 3: If you feel great about Rory. His strength is not

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Speaker 3: short game. It's not bad, but it's also not great.

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Speaker 3: Oberg has been so good around the greens this year,

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Speaker 3: and his approach game has been improving markedly the last

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Speaker 3: couple Eventsities so appeared at this guy scores like he

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Speaker 3: is a birdie making machine, and he's actually fifth best

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Speaker 3: in this field at avoiding bogies, which is going to

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Speaker 3: come in play. I like all the things about ludvig

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Speaker 3: Olberg this week, especially at twelve to one versus Rory,

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Speaker 3: and then going in right. Number three in my model

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Speaker 3: is Colin Morikawa a twenty five to one. His ball

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Speaker 3: striking is outstanding. He's your rich man's Cory Connors and

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Speaker 3: it's his first appearance as TPC san Antonio. I have

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Speaker 3: a feeling he's gonna make a lot of noise this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Marikawa, zero top tens and five starts this year, do

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Speaker 1: you feel like he's due?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and maybe it's this week.

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Speaker 1: Obert also a first timer, I believe right, he has

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Speaker 1: not played this before. But man top twenty five and

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Speaker 1: five consecutive tournaments for Obert with three top tens during

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Speaker 1: that stretch, it's just hard to justify that price on Rory,

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Speaker 1: it is, yeah.

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Speaker 3: And that conversely, Morikawa is underprice twenty five to one,

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Speaker 3: and he's a guy that short game isn't his strength either.

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Speaker 3: But it comes down to I would probably go under

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Speaker 3: twenty to one for Morikawa, where I wouldn't necessarily go

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Speaker 3: any shorter for McElroy's. We have a little bit more

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Speaker 3: wiggle room with Morikawa's line here at twenty five to

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Speaker 3: one currently, I could see that get a little shorter,

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Speaker 3: and I would still be interested with how overdue he

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Speaker 3: is without talented he is. This is a disrespectful number

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Speaker 3: for Moricawa and a legacy number for McElroy.

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Speaker 1: It is, yeah, the legacy number for sure. Five events

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Speaker 1: he's played in the last ten weeks hasn't finished better

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Speaker 1: than nineteenth in any good What about Jordan Spieth, the

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Speaker 1: Dallas native one here in twenty twenty one, second here

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Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Local guy, not great form lately though.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's struggling right now, and where he is very

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Speaker 3: strong in the short game, one of the best short

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Speaker 3: game players on planet Earth. He is one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighteenth in this field, and strokes gained on approach was

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Speaker 3: a very heavily weighted metric. His approach game has been

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Speaker 3: awful and that's been a strength of his in years past.

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Speaker 3: Where really, I'm struggling. I'm surprised to see ball striking

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Speaker 3: metrics so bad for speed this year. His short game

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Speaker 3: has kind of held him together near the top of

279
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Speaker 3: the leaderboard every once in a while, but here it's

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Speaker 3: just too good of a field. I know it's local,

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Speaker 3: but that local flair and the win all those years

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Speaker 3: ago has got his number way inflated at twenty to one.

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Speaker 3: I like him, but I don't love him. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to bet him out right here. He just needs

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Speaker 3: to pull it back together with the ball striking, especially

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Speaker 3: on approach. That's a terrible number and it scares me off. Honestly.

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Speaker 1: Let me run through three more of the guys from

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Speaker 1: this group and you can tell me if any of

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Speaker 1: them are the least bit tempting you. Hideki Matsuyama. Here's

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Speaker 1: where he has finished in his last three events. First twelfth, sixth,

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Speaker 1: no top tens and three prior trips to the Valero.

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Speaker 1: But he was fifteenth here last year, which isn't too bad.

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Speaker 1: Corey Connors two wins here. We know his ball striking

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Speaker 1: is well above average, and in his two most recent

295
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Speaker 1: events he finished eighteenth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and

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Speaker 1: thirteenth at the Players Championship and bow My Guy Alex

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Speaker 1: Norin Over the last month, he's finished ninth at the

298
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Speaker 1: Cognizant Classic, nineteenth at the Players Championship, and eleventh last

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Speaker 1: week in Houston. He finished fifteenth here in his debut

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Speaker 1: last year. Wait, but he and Medeki Hideki can't have

301
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Speaker 1: both finished fifteenth, So I'm getting one of those wrong.

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Speaker 1: Don't have that here in front of Uh yeah, it

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Speaker 1: could could have been a T fifteen, must have been.

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Speaker 1: So any of those guys, Norrin, Hideki, were Corey Conners.

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Speaker 3: They all rate out really well here. Obviously, Connors is

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Speaker 3: the crown jewel with two trophies here. Connors comes in

307
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Speaker 3: number one in ball striking, dead last and short games,

308
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Speaker 3: so he's kind of a paradox at this event. We

309
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Speaker 3: don't know how quite how he does it, but twenty

310
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Speaker 3: five to one is just too steep for me with him,

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Speaker 3: he's playing terribly this year. I like both Hideki and

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Speaker 3: Norrin here. I'm more on Hideki in the betting markets

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Speaker 3: where Norn hasn't won anything ever, so I'm more interested

314
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Speaker 3: in the DFS side for Noran, but they're right up

315
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Speaker 3: in the top ten in my model. On both of those,

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Speaker 3: I like Hideki a little bit better. Even at twenty

317
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Speaker 3: to one. It's a fair number and I know I

318
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,439
Speaker 3: can get a good decent line on his top ten finish.

319
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Speaker 3: I think he's going to finally crack through and get

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Speaker 3: a top ten with how well he's been playing this year.

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Speaker 1: Let's look at the mid range options. Harris English, Brian

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Speaker 1: Harmon and Billy Horschell are plus thirty five hundred, Adam

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Speaker 1: Scott's plus four thousand, Christian Bazuon and Howe plus forty

324
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Speaker 1: five hundred, Eric Cole and Aksha Batilla are plus five thousand,

325
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Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell and Tom Kim are plus fifty five hundred,

326
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Speaker 1: and we have a big group at plus six thousand,

327
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Speaker 1: six thousand, Nikolai Hoyguard Bo Hostler, Ricky Fowler, Aaron Raye,

328
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Speaker 1: and Maverick McNeely. Any value here.

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Speaker 3: Ball gotta be careful in this range. There's a lot

330
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Speaker 3: of good names here that raid out well. Christian bozeiden

331
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Speaker 3: Hoot is one of them. He's ninth in my model,

332
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 3: very very good short game player, very accurate player, which

333
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 3: is going to come into play here. His approach is

334
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Speaker 3: not his strong suit, but are actually it is seventh

335
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Speaker 3: in this field. So overall, I think that Bez is

336
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,560
Speaker 3: due for a good showing here. But I'm a little

337
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: bit more interested in the comeback story for Tom Kim

338
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Speaker 3: and the continued hotness hot streak for Aksha Batiya. Those

339
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 3: two guys are just more talented than Christian Bozeidenhot. So

340
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,199
Speaker 3: I'm going to be I'm going to be in on

341
00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 3: Tom Kim because he only missed his last event with

342
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 3: a fever, and I have a feeling that his game

343
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 3: fits this course really well. He's got an outstanding short

344
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 3: game and if it gets windy, we just saw him

345
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 3: contend at the Open Championship and the Scottish Open. He's

346
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 3: got the win game down. Pat Akshavatia is one of

347
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 3: the best wedge players in the world, so on approach

348
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 3: on some of these holes, he's going to be sticking

349
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 3: it closer than the rest of the field. Those two

350
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 3: guys are on my radar at fifty and fifty five

351
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 3: to one, respectively. Those two guys stand out big time

352
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:32,199
Speaker 3: for me.

353
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:36,879
Speaker 1: Brian Harmon hasn't played this event since twenty nineteen, hasn't

354
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 1: really had much success here. Buddy's been in pretty good

355
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: form over the last month. A precision ball striking is

356
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 1: kind of his thing. I'm sort of interested in him.

357
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: Billy Horschell hasn't played the Valero since twenty nineteen either,

358
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: but he finished third here in twenty fifteen, fourth and

359
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,919
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, eleventh, and twenty eighteen. He's finished top twelve

360
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: and three of his last four events, and he shot

361
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 1: at sixty four Sunday at the Houston Open to finish

362
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 1: in a tie for seventh.

363
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 2: He's kind of interesting. And Keith Mitchell, how does he

364
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 2: do in your model bow?

365
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 1: Because it seems like he pops in a lot of

366
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 1: the Valero Texas Open models.

367
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 2: I've seen people touting on Twitter.

368
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 1: He's had two top tens and five top twenties this season,

369
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: and he finished seventeenth in his last appearance here in

370
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one.

371
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 3: I'll skip Kashmir Keith this week. He has one of

372
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,719
Speaker 3: the worst short games on the planet. As good as

373
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: he has off the tee, it's not going to play here.

374
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: He's a really good approach player, and that's what's going

375
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: to keep him in contention here if he is so

376
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: fortunate to be there. Bryan Harmon actually rates up extremely

377
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 3: poorly here for me, just because of the approach distances

378
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: and his short game's been kind of off this year.

379
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 3: He comes in at thirty eighth down the board. Short

380
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: game's okay for him, Okay, not by his standard. It's

381
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 3: not good. What I'm looking at is kind of skipping

382
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 3: down farther down the board here because there's a lot

383
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 3: of great values farther down. Eric Van roy in eighty

384
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: to one rings a bell for me. There's no water

385
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 3: on this course, so Van Ryan's in play. It's funny

386
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: because there's seventy two bunkers. But Van Ryan's got a

387
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 3: great short game, and he's been playing great this year.

388
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 3: He has changed my mind on him. I was completely

389
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 3: off EVR complete last year, didn't want to play him

390
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: at all because he burned me. Every time. I'm back

391
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: on with EVR because he's playing great and all the

392
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 3: rest of my picks are going to be way farther

393
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 3: down the board in deep shot territory.

394
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: Well, for you to say that Keith Mitchell has one

395
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 1: of the worst short games on the planet just means

396
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 1: that you've never played golf with me. Ball We got

397
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 1: a remedy that.

398
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 2: But you might, I.

399
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 3: Meant among tour professionals. But yeah, you're probably right. His

400
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 3: short game is probably quite a bit better than yours

401
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 3: and mine.

402
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, so let's do it.

403
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: Let's enter the bow McBriar zone the long shots that

404
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: secnically includes anyone with odds of sixty five to one

405
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: or longer bowl. But you know, I'm looking for you

406
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: to give me a hitting gym that's going off at

407
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 1: like two hundred to one or longer.

408
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 3: I will disappoint you. I won't disappoint you. Doug gimm

409
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 3: Is on a heater this year. He's coming at ninety

410
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 3: to one. I love him. Bud Colly, I'll keep riding

411
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 3: that train doing top twenty bets on. Bud Cally's paying

412
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 3: right now. He's one hundred to one outright, and I'm

413
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 3: gonna keep going down. We're gonna go deep here, Charlie Hoffman,

414
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: this is his event. This guy, this guy has two

415
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 3: runner ups and a win here. He's played great this

416
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 3: year in the spot starts that he's made. He's going

417
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 3: off at one hundred and thirty to one. Chan Kim

418
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty to one is a fun one.

419
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 3: Chan Kim's playing great golf this year. Just a little

420
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 3: secret he's he's not just a deep shot. He's a

421
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 3: deep shot that's got hot form. Coming in same with

422
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: Hayden Springer at three hundred to one. Who's a dark

423
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 3: horse for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. If something

424
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 3: happens to our guy Jake Knapp, Hayden Springer is gonna

425
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 3: be one of these guys, I'm watching out for this

426
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 3: summer and I had to go super deep. You're gonna

427
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: love this one. The Belgian Adrian Dumont du Chassa six

428
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 3: hundred to one, A d d C is what they

429
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 3: call him. Adrian Dumont de Chassas. Six hundred to one

430
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 3: is my deep, deep, deep, spiciest of all spicy deep shots.

431
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 3: I'll take some made cut bets. I'll take a top forty,

432
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 3: and I'll throw a couple on top twenty. Throw a

433
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: buck or two on his six hundred to one. Outright,

434
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 3: I don't think he'll win, but that's a name to

435
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 3: look out.

436
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: For, a D d C. All right, I like it.

437
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Charlie Hoffman, I like I have to play him,

438
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: you know, like two time runner up here, past winner.

439
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 3: Calls the Valero Hoffman Open pretty much.

440
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, he has done so much well at this tournament

441
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: in the past, and I know he's missed three straight cuts,

442
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: but he did nearly win the Phoenix Open.

443
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: A couple of months ago.

444
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: Of course, what about the masses.

445
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: What about the coucher conundrum? Ball twenty twenty four has

446
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: been awful, but and which is why he's one hundred

447
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: and ten to one, but his track record hit the

448
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: Valero Texas Open is excellent. He was third here last year,

449
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: second in twenty twenty two, twelfth and twenty twenty one,

450
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: seventh and twenty nineteen.

451
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just been so bad this year. I'm not

452
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 3: sure what's going on with him, but it was a

453
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 3: precipitous downfall. And when I'm looking at Coucher, I'm scrolling

454
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 3: all the way down to the bottom of this list

455
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 3: and he is nowhere to be found until you get

456
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: to the very basement of my of my stats. So

457
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: I'm afraid Coucher might be washed. And that's a sad

458
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: thing to say for such a promising player. For so

459
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 3: many years, he was our steady pick. But this guy's

460
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 3: ball striking well at all. He's near the bottom and

461
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: ball striking on approach and what used to be a

462
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 3: world class short game is only a middle of a

463
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: pack this year. He needs a better short game to

464
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 3: contend here, even just to make the cut here. It's

465
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: gonna he's gonna to play better than he has all

466
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 3: season to make the cut here. Sorry, but Matt Kocher

467
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: is out.

468
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to mention a couple more guys who are

469
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: sort of interesting, not deep long shots like add C Bow.

470
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,439
Speaker 1: But Ryan Moore ninety to one, finished seventh here in

471
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, third in twenty nineteen, and his forum has

472
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: been pretty good lately, including a fifth place finish at

473
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: Valspar two weeks ago and kh Lee one.

474
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: Hundred to one.

475
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 1: He's had two top tens in his last four events,

476
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: and that included a fourth at the Cognizant Classic. He's

477
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 1: played this event three times and as a pair of

478
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 1: top twenty fives, including a fourteenth in his Valero debut

479
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. So, all right, bo, what do you

480
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: have in your betting card so far?

481
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 3: I have Ludwig Oberg at twenty, Morikawa at twenty five,

482
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 3: Tom Kim at fifty with a top ten kicker, Akshavatia

483
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: fifty five with a top ten kicker, And I'm going

484
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 3: quarter unit bets outright on Hoffman, Chan Kim, Hayden, Springer

485
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 3: and ADDC always some top twenties or made cup bets

486
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 3: sprinkled in, because what's been keeping us alive other than

487
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: a nice hit on Jake Knapp earlier in the season

488
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: has been our placement bets where we're right about the

489
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 3: right about the golfer doing well. Maybe it didn't come

490
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: all the way through for the gigantic payoff, but we're

491
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 3: we're making good money on these placement bets, and so

492
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: I'm going to keep doing that. Top twenty bets have

493
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 3: just been paying like a fountain of cash all season.

494
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: So let's keep it rolling.

495
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 1: And I've got to tell you on ADDC and Chan

496
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: Kim of course, like I'm not going to stop becking

497
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: you on these long shots now. I'm also betting Jordan

498
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: Speeth each way, like I think he's gonna get it

499
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 1: together for the Masters. This is his time of year. Yeah,

500
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: so he's plus eighteen hundred. I'm betting Billy Horschel at

501
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: plus thirty five hundred, you know the course history, and

502
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: like he's starting to get it together. Betting Ryan Moore

503
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: at ninety to one, kh Lee at one hundred to one,

504
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: and Hollywood Hoffman at one hundred and thirty to one,

505
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 1: and a top twenty on Hollywood.

506
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 2: At plus four fifty.

507
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: So let's get to the one and done picks, bow

508
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: you would Windham Clark last week he finished tied for

509
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: thirty first, good for fifty four four hundred and eighteen.

510
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: I had Saheith Degala. He finished in a tie for

511
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: twenty eighth, good for sixty five thousand and sixty five dollars.

512
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 1: I made up almost eleven thousand dollars on you, Bo,

513
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: you're at about four point four million. I'm at about

514
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: one point three million. I'm still more than three million down.

515
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: But if I can keep chipping away at you like

516
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: I did last week, by my estimate, I will catch

517
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: you sometime in early twenty thirty one.

518
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 3: So good man, I'm up.

519
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: First this week.

520
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Alex norn good form finished fifteenth here

521
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: last year, and Bo Alex Norin has not qualified for

522
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: the Masters yet. That could be a big motivator for him.

523
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: I'm hoping Norn is going to be dialed in this week.

524
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 3: You do know why he hasn't qualified for the Masters yet, right?

525
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: What's that?

526
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 3: Because he's never won anything?

527
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: Good point.

528
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: It's the one and done ball. I don't need to

529
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: win this, I just need.

530
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: To I'm not knocking the pick. I will have a

531
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: good amount of him in DFS because he does fit

532
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 3: well here, so I won't knock you. I'm going to

533
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: go with our guy, Hideki Masayama. I have a good

534
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 3: feeling about his form this year, and he does fit

535
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: this course as well as he's modeled for me, I

536
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 3: might as well use him.

537
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: Here, and that is going to do it. For this

538
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: week's show. I want to thank our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy.

539
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: Sign up for Underdog with the promo CODEVP Golf to

540
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: get your first deposit match up to one hundred dollars

541
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: plus a special pick available for you in the lobby,

542
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: and please come join Bo and I next week for

543
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 1: a very special show. We will be previewing the first

544
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: major of the year, the greatest golf tournament in the world,

545
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 1: played on the greatest golf course on the planets. We'll

546
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 1: be previewing the Masters at Augusta National.

547
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: I can't wait.

548
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: It's going to be an awesome field and an awesome

549
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: spectacle as always, so we'll see you next week for

550
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: the Master's preview.

551
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.

552
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

553
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

554
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

555
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,600
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556
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,360
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557
00:29:53,440 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros