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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Focused on politics at this hour here on Balance of

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Speaker 2: Power and if you were with us on this show yesterday.

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Speaker 2: At this time, we weren't quite sure if the House Speaker,

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson was going to be able to pull this

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Speaker 2: whole thing off, as he was dealing with competing factions

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Speaker 2: in his conference, having made the saltcock as happy with

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Speaker 2: a lift of the cap of forty thousand dollars, anchoring

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Speaker 2: conservatives in the process, having to offer them in exchange

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Speaker 2: an acceleration in the implementation of stricter work requirements around

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Speaker 2: Medicaid in the rollback of clean energy subsidies from the

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Speaker 2: Inflation Reduction Act. There was also a visit to the

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Speaker 2: White House with President Trump in there as well to

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Speaker 2: convince some of the holdouts, but the job was done.

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Speaker 2: The bill passed narrowly two fifteen to two fourteen, and

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Speaker 2: the Speaker was sounding pretty happy about it this morning.

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Speaker 3: We look forward to the Senate's timely consideration of this

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Speaker 3: once in a generation legislation. We stand ready to continue

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Speaker 3: our work together to deliver on the one big, Beautiful bill,

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Speaker 3: as President Trump named it himself. We're going to send

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Speaker 3: that to his desk. We're going to get there by

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Speaker 3: Independence Day on July fourth, and we are going to

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Speaker 3: celebrate a new golden age in.

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Speaker 4: America July fourth. An aggressive timeline, maybe not. Let's talk

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Speaker 4: about it with Chuck Edwards, the Republican congressman from North

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Speaker 4: Carolina's eleventh district, is with US Congressman, it's good to

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Speaker 4: see its still in Washington. With a lot of questions

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Speaker 4: about what comes next. I know this is a day

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Speaker 4: that Republicans are feeling pretty great about, but it's going

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Speaker 4: to go through the grinder in the Senate, and I

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Speaker 4: wonder if you're prepared for the changes that will come back.

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Speaker 4: Are we going to have to go through this all

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Speaker 4: over again.

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Speaker 5: Well, you're right. It is a great day for America.

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Speaker 6: And what we saw take place at about ten am

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Speaker 6: this morning was the culmination of many, many months of

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Speaker 6: grueling work to put the American agenda back on the

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Speaker 6: plate and turn this country around. It's an exciting day.

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Speaker 2: Well when we consider what actually happened today, everything embedded

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Speaker 2: in this legislation, Congressman, obviously, the House was having to

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Speaker 2: work under different parameters than the Senate. Will you know this?

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Speaker 2: Having a seat on the Budget Committee, the Senate has

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Speaker 2: more wiggle room to extend tax cuts, perhaps even further,

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Speaker 2: as they use the current policy baseline. Are you expecting

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Speaker 2: that the end result of this bill, once it's gone

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Speaker 2: through both chambers, is going to be a bigger price

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Speaker 2: tag than what you and your colleagues just passed.

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Speaker 6: I believe that we're at a point right now where

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Speaker 6: Americans are demanding more fiscal responsibility, and I think we're

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Speaker 6: going to see that out of the Senate's product. Know

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Speaker 6: that Americans are desperate to not see taxes go up.

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Speaker 6: I think we're going to see that come out of

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Speaker 6: the Senate product. I know that Americans are demanding stricter

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Speaker 6: border control. We're going to see that come out of

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Speaker 6: the Senate product. I believe that the bill that we

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Speaker 6: see back out of the Senate is going to very

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Speaker 6: closely mirror what we will send them later today.

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Speaker 4: Your colleague from Kentucky, Tom Massey, who was of course

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Speaker 4: a no and had been through the duration, said this

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Speaker 4: bill is a debt bomb ticking. Congress can do funny

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Speaker 4: math if it wants, but bond investors don't. Congressman, is

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Speaker 4: he wrong about the money that's being added to the

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Speaker 4: debt and deficit.

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Speaker 6: Well, there's no question we have curbed our thirst for

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Speaker 6: spending by about one point five trillion dollars. There's plenty

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Speaker 6: more work to do, but I think that we have

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Speaker 6: to take a moment and celebrate what we were a

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Speaker 6: to accomplish at this momentous time, and we'll come back

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Speaker 6: to work. And once we begin to see the results

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Speaker 6: of this bill and the economy grow by not allowing

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Speaker 6: taxes to go up and putting that money back into

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Speaker 6: the economy, we'll be able to take another more stringent

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Speaker 6: look at the spending bills of the future. But we

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Speaker 6: have curbed the thirst for spending it in a way

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Speaker 6: that you've not seen up here in DC for a while.

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Speaker 2: Well, as you talk about the potential economic benefits of

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Speaker 2: this legislation, Congressman, are they in no way in your

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Speaker 2: mind offset by existing tariff policy or the risk of

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Speaker 2: higher tariffs that still could come in the future.

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Speaker 6: Well, what we're seeing out of tariffs right now is

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Speaker 6: budget surpluses. We're seeing income that has not been yet

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Speaker 6: placed on the balance sheet of the United States, that

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Speaker 6: is not fully baked in. I think what we're also

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Speaker 6: going to see as President Trump continues to negotiate with

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Speaker 6: these tariffs would be even a stronger economy with more

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Speaker 6: investment here in the US and more jobs.

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Speaker 4: That said, Congress, when the CBO says this bill will

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Speaker 4: boost the incomes of the richest ten percent of Americans

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Speaker 4: while lowering the incomes of the lowest ten percent of Americans,

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Speaker 4: how does that resonate in your district.

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Speaker 6: Well, CBO has not had a very good record in

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Speaker 6: being right. The reality is right now, the tax rate

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Speaker 6: for the highest earners in America is thirty seven percent,

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Speaker 6: and when this bill comes into law, the highest tax

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Speaker 6: rate will be thirty seven percent. The Left is not

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Speaker 6: bothering to tell you that. They're using the old fashioned talking.

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Speaker 7: Point that is the CBO.

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Speaker 6: The left, the CBO is just inefficient. I'm not going

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Speaker 6: to say that they're partisan or not, but when you

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Speaker 6: go back and look at their record, they do not

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Speaker 6: have a history of being accurate. We believe that the

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Speaker 6: economy is going to grow at a far, far quicker

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Speaker 6: rate than what they've got baked in right now, just

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Speaker 6: as it did under Trump forty five when the Tax

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Speaker 6: Cuts and Jobs Act was initially put into law.

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Speaker 2: Congressman, considering your district in North Carolina, I also want

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Speaker 2: to ask you, as we approach the beginning of hurricane

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Speaker 2: season here, knowing you've called for reforms to FEMA, about

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Speaker 2: the warnings internally that FEMA has delivered about being unprepared

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Speaker 2: for this hurricane season, in which there's now suggestions that

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Speaker 2: we could have up to nineteen named storm storms. Are

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Speaker 2: you concerned about the impact potentially on North Carolina, about

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Speaker 2: a lack of preparedness as we enter these next months.

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Speaker 6: Well, I certainly believe that western North Carolina has seen

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Speaker 6: its worst hurricane in many, many decades. I'm more concerned

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Speaker 6: about rebuilding from last year's hurricane. There's no question FEMA

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Speaker 6: needs to be reformed. It failed North Carolina in so

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Speaker 6: many different ways. I'm happy to have had the opportunity

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Speaker 6: to suggest to the President and reforms that should be

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Speaker 6: put into place now to help whoever the victims of

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Speaker 6: the next storm might be.

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Speaker 4: A lot of people remember your response to Hurricane Helene

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Speaker 4: and your attempt to debunk some of the myths that

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Speaker 4: surrounded the response, going so far as having to write

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Speaker 4: that Hurricane Eleen was not geo engineered by the government

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Speaker 4: to seize and access lithium deposits in Chimney Rock. This

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Speaker 4: is back in October of twenty twenty four. Congressman, I'm

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Speaker 4: glad that you brought this up. What else does Asheville

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Speaker 4: and the Hilltown's need at this point to rebuild.

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Speaker 6: The biggest thing that we need right now is to

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Speaker 6: continue to dismantle the bureaucracy in Washington, d C. I'm

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Speaker 6: really happy that President Trump has been to western North

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Speaker 6: Carolina on a couple of occasions. I'm excited that he

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Speaker 6: signed me to a special task force to offer recommendations

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Speaker 6: on how to accelerate our recovery. But there's much much

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Speaker 6: more that we have to get out of the way

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Speaker 6: in Washington, d C. We have a substantial funding package

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Speaker 6: that I authored back in December, and now there's hundreds

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Speaker 6: of millions of dollars in the hands of federal agencies,

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Speaker 6: but we're having a really tough time getting it into

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Speaker 6: the hands of the people. That need it most. That's

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Speaker 6: the number one thing that we need in western North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Right now, all right, representing Western North Carolina, specifically North

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Speaker 2: Carolina is eleventh Congressional District Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards, joining

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Speaker 2: live from Capitol Hill here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: We appreciate your time, and we want to turn now

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Speaker 2: to our political panel as we continue to assess the

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Speaker 2: legislation that the House was able to narrowly pass early

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Speaker 2: this morning, and turned to Rick Davis, partner at Stone

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Speaker 2: Court Capital, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist, alongside fellow

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Schanzino, our Democratic analyst and senior

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Speaker 2: Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study of the

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Speaker 2: Presidency and Congress. We just heard from the congressman, their Genie,

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Speaker 2: sounding pretty confident that he thinks the Senate isn't going

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Speaker 2: to make many changes to what he and his colleagues

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Speaker 2: were able to get across the House floor this morning.

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Speaker 2: Is that also your working assumption?

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Speaker 8: It is not. I give him a lot of credit

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Speaker 8: for being so optimistic. I'm sure he's on a high

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Speaker 8: right now that they passed this bill because of course

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Speaker 8: that wasn't certain. But you know, I just go back

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Speaker 8: to what Lindsay Edwards, Lindsay grahmm brother said. Wendy said that,

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Speaker 8: you know, you had your turn of the House, and

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Speaker 8: now it's our turn. And what we're hearing out of

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Speaker 8: the Senator is that they are going to be moving

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Speaker 8: this bill in a direction that is not going to

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Speaker 8: be beloved by members of the House Freedom Caucus, in

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Speaker 8: particular as it pertains to budget and spending. I mean,

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Speaker 8: the reality is this bill adds an enormous amount to

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Speaker 8: the deficit, and that's why those who are fiscally conservative

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Speaker 8: and are consistent in that, like Massey, voted against it.

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Speaker 8: It is a you know, will blow up the deficit,

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Speaker 8: and that's something our kids and our grandkids will have

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Speaker 8: to pay for or reconcile with.

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Speaker 4: We heard from Hakim Jeffries this morning. Ricky says Democrats

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Speaker 4: just won the midterms. Of course he's looking specifically at

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Speaker 4: medicaid cuts along with some other items here.

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Speaker 7: Can the Senate change that course or is he right?

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Speaker 9: I think the Senate can soften that up a little bit.

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Speaker 9: There's no question that there are senators very concerned about

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Speaker 9: the Medicaid cuts put in by the House of Representatives

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Speaker 9: and are likely to change some of those visions. But

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Speaker 9: the reality is you just can't get the addition to

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Speaker 9: add to be right on this unless you find spending

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Speaker 9: cuts that can defray some of these other spending items.

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Speaker 9: And so the Senate has a tough job because it's

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Speaker 9: not only the math, but it's also as you point out,

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Speaker 9: the messaging on this, you know what is going to

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Speaker 9: be the Republican talking point. We just heard Congressman Edwards

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Speaker 9: talk about tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts, and the

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Speaker 9: irony is that these are tax cuts that everybody enjoys today.

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Speaker 9: So it's really the extension of those tax cuts with

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Speaker 9: some additions like no tax on tips and some other

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Speaker 9: things that the President campaigned on. So I think we've

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Speaker 9: heard the Republican talking points, and I think we now

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Speaker 9: know what the Democratic tack lines are going to be

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Speaker 9: relative to Medicaid, and and I think we're already seeing

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Speaker 9: the midterm play out in real time right now.

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Speaker 7: So game on.

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Speaker 9: Let's let's let's see how this all shapes up. But

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Speaker 9: you know, it's awful hard to convince the American public

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Speaker 9: voters that they're getting something special. When they look at

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Speaker 9: their tax bill, it's going to be the same as

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Speaker 9: it was last year.

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Speaker 2: Well, Rix, there's also the consideration of the parliamentarian in

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Speaker 2: the Senate and whether they will rule that everything that

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Speaker 2: was in the House bill is actually acceptable under the

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Speaker 2: rules of what can actually be in a budget reconciliation package.

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Speaker 2: Knowing that the Senate just today voted to block California's

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Speaker 2: ban on gasoline powered cars starting in twenty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: despite a ruling from the parliamentarian that the Senate did

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Speaker 2: not actually have the authority through the Congressional Review Act

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Speaker 2: to overturn that EPA waiver that was of course done

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Speaker 2: during the Biden administration. Does that suggest to you that

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Speaker 2: they would be willing to overlook the rulings of the

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Speaker 2: parliamentarian in this process or in any in the future.

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Speaker 9: I think it's a little bit of a one off,

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Speaker 9: and every Senator I've talked to indicates that the Bird rule,

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Speaker 9: This idea that reconciliation bills have to pass certain scrutiny

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Speaker 9: and it must be fiscal issues involved and not policy issues,

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Speaker 9: is from what I can tell, still going to be

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Speaker 9: a major hurdle for a lot of the things that

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Speaker 9: are in the House bill and will simply be dropped

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Speaker 9: from the bill based on the parliamentarian's ruling. Now what's

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Speaker 9: replacing them is the big question mark. And the House

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Speaker 9: bill also didn't have a lot of detail in the reconciliation.

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Speaker 9: It had huge chunks of money, hundreds of millions of

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Speaker 9: dollars for things like border control, but they did not

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Speaker 9: articulate what the border control would be, whether it's just

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Speaker 9: general policing of the border or building a fence. There's

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Speaker 9: typically in budget bills you have a lot of detail.

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Speaker 9: I think we'll see more detail coming out of the

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Speaker 9: Senate on how they want to see all that administration spending.

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Speaker 4: Genie, you just heard our conversation with Chuck Edwards, the

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Speaker 4: congressman from North Carolina. He likened the CBO to the left,

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Speaker 4: suggesting that there may be political motivations here. And we've

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Speaker 4: talked to a lot of Republican lawmakers who simply don't

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Speaker 4: think that the Congressional Budget Office, build as nonpartisan, is trustworthy.

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Speaker 4: They're looking for dynamic scoring. They don't believe the numbers

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Speaker 4: that they're hearing from the CBO when it comes to

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Speaker 4: increasing the debt, and deficit. How do we get around

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Speaker 4: this and how do we find an objective arbiter when

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Speaker 4: it comes to legislation.

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Speaker 8: You know, the CBO is an objective arbiter. The problem

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Speaker 8: is whether it is the Democrats or Republicans. Any pronouncement

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Speaker 8: by the CBO is in if it's in violation or

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Speaker 8: if it goes against what they want and what they hope,

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Speaker 8: they then describe it as partisan, describe it as untrustworthy.

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Speaker 8: And the reality is the CBO is made up of

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Speaker 8: very very good people, smart people, economists, other people who

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Speaker 8: know what they are doing, and they are not driven

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Speaker 8: by partisan needs. So I think we have to, you know,

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Speaker 8: listen to some of those complaints with a bit of

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Speaker 8: you know, just understanding that a when the CBO says

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Speaker 8: something they don't like, that's always been response.

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Speaker 4: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis will be back a little

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Speaker 4: bit later on this hour with a breaking headline on

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Speaker 4: the terminal. Now, President Trump will attend the G seven

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Speaker 4: meeting in Canada. That's according to Caroline Levitt, the Press Secretary,

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Speaker 4: just now briefing reporters at the White House. We'll have

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Speaker 4: a lot more ahead, including our conversation with the US

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Speaker 4: Ambassador to Nado. Straight ahead here on Balance of Power

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Speaker 4: on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: This is Balance of Power Live on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: I'm Kailee Lines alongside Joe Matthew in Washington, where, of course,

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Speaker 2: much of the capital has been focused on Capitol Hill

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Speaker 2: today for what happened in the House the passage of

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Speaker 2: the budget Reconciliation Plan, the so called One Big Beautiful

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Speaker 2: Bill two fifteen to two fourteen. It now goes to

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Speaker 2: the US Senate. But on the floor of the US

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Speaker 2: Senate today, the Senate Majority Leader John Thune was actually

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Speaker 2: focused on something else, and that is the ongoing war

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Speaker 2: between Russia and Ukraine and the pressure that the US

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Speaker 2: the Senate included, is willing to put on Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 2: to agree to a ceasefire, including a bill, of course,

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Speaker 2: drafted by Senator Lindsay Graham that threatens further sanctions on

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Speaker 2: Russia if there is not progress made on that front soon.

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Speaker 2: Here is Senator Thun on the floor earlier.

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Speaker 10: The Senate stands ready to act. Thanks to the doged

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Speaker 10: work of Senator Graham, we have bipartisan legislation co sponsored

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Speaker 10: by eighty of my colleagues to impose additional economic sanctions

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Speaker 10: and tariffs on Russia if Russia is not willing to

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Speaker 10: engage in serious diplomacy. The Senate will work with the

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Speaker 10: Trump administration to consider additional sanctions to force Putin to

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Speaker 10: start negotia.

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Speaker 4: This is where we start our conversation with Matthew Whitaker,

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Speaker 4: the US Ambassador to NATO, joins US live now from

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Speaker 4: the north lawn of the White House. Mister ambassador, Welcome

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Speaker 4: to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 7: It's great to have you.

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Speaker 4: Are you concerned that Capitol Hill that the legislature could

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Speaker 4: complicate matters and in fact interfere with peace talks between

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Speaker 4: Russia and Ukraine.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, well, obviously, first of all, it's good to be

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Speaker 11: with you, and I think that you know, the peace

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Speaker 11: talks while ongoing. I think we're you know, struck a

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Speaker 11: small blow with you know Putin sending a low level

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Speaker 11: delegation last week to Turkey, and and.

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Speaker 5: Where we find ourselves.

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Speaker 11: You know, I've been reading news reports this morning suggesting that,

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Speaker 11: you know, President Trump continues to be frustrated, and obviously

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Speaker 11: anything that happens up on Capitol Hill, you know, will

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Speaker 11: most likely be as Senator Thune said, we'll be in

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Speaker 11: concert with President Trump, so I fully expect that that

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Speaker 11: will be hand in glove and help hopefully advance the

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Speaker 11: peace process ultimately.

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Speaker 2: Well, mister ambassador, you reference news reports. I would love

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Speaker 2: your take on the news that was reported in the

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal that President Trump told European leaders in

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Speaker 2: a call earlier this week that Putin is not ready

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Speaker 2: to end the war because he thinks he's winning. Is

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Speaker 2: that a sentiment he's shared with you? Have you shared

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Speaker 2: that with Arnado allies?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 11: I have not, But I think you can just look

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Speaker 11: at you know, we've said often that you don't listen

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Speaker 11: to the words of President Putin and President Zelensky, you

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Speaker 11: listen to their actions. And right now, Putin continues to

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Speaker 11: fight the war in Ukraine, continues to send hundreds of

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Speaker 11: drones almost on a daily basis against oftentimes civilian targets.

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Speaker 5: So I think that you know, would suggest that.

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Speaker 11: President Putin doesn't want peace yet, and so obviously the

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Speaker 11: United States has a lot of cards to play in

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Speaker 11: this situation. But you know, President Trump wants peace. And

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Speaker 11: what I've talked to him about is that, you know,

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Speaker 11: this this hot war in Europe should end, but it

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Speaker 11: should end you know when it's when both sides can

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Speaker 11: agree to some cease fire framework and some peace plan

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Speaker 11: that make sure it doesn't fire up again. Because I

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Speaker 11: think that's the biggest risk, is that we might end

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Speaker 11: the near term killing, but we need want to end

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Speaker 11: the long term killing. We have five thousand people every day,

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Speaker 11: I mean every week that are dying on the battlefield,

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Speaker 11: including civilians, and I think that's just a human trategy

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Speaker 11: needs to stop.

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Speaker 4: Have you also talked to the president ambassador about walking away?

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Speaker 4: We've heard President Trump suggest this as well as Secretary

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Speaker 4: of State Marco Ruby.

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Speaker 7: I think JD.

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Speaker 4: Vance, the Vice President, has suggested this as well, that

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Speaker 4: there will be at some point a line of diminishing

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Speaker 4: returns where the US will simply back off and leave.

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Speaker 7: This up to the parties who are directly involved.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, I think President Trump likes to keep all options

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Speaker 11: on the table and keep as much negotiating space as possible.

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Speaker 5: There are several things that he could do.

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Speaker 11: On really either side of the equation to try to

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Speaker 11: end this war in an asymmetrical kind of way. But

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Speaker 11: I think you know, President Trump is trying to find

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Speaker 11: the right circumstances and the right situation to end the

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Speaker 11: killing that I mentioned earlier. But at the same time,

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Speaker 11: he does not have unlimited patients, and so at some

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Speaker 11: point in time, as Secretary of Rubio has said, we

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Speaker 11: need to, you know, address other critical issues, and we

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Speaker 11: can't spend all our time trying to mediate a war

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Speaker 11: that neither side appears, but especially Russia appears be unwilling

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Speaker 11: to end.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about something else that Secretary

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Speaker 2: Rubio has said recently, mister ambassador, and that is by

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Speaker 2: next month's NATO meeting, which is scheduled for late June,

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Speaker 2: that members will have all agreed to hit a five

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Speaker 2: percent defense spending target. How confident are you about that

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Speaker 2: target being easily reached and on what realistic time for you?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, well, right now, Secretary Rubio has said that that

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Speaker 11: timeline would be ten years. Obviously we're working with all

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Speaker 11: our violeized to figure out what makes sense. But we

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Speaker 11: need something that's different from what was the Whales Pledge

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Speaker 11: from eleven years ago, where everyone agreed to two percent

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Speaker 11: of GDP GDP being spent on defense, and some of

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Speaker 11: our allies are just getting to that like right now,

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Speaker 11: and so we need to have clear stare steps to

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Speaker 11: that to meet those goals. And at the same time,

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Speaker 11: we need to make sure all of our allies understand

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Speaker 11: that it's got, you know, primarily be on hard defense

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Speaker 11: capabilities according to the NATO war fighting plans that actually

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Speaker 11: make the alignce stronger. But remember, as I mentioned before,

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Speaker 11: President Trump wants peace and deterrence and strength are the

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Speaker 11: way to bring that peace to the continent. But for

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Speaker 11: too long, the European allies have relied on the United

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Speaker 11: States as the primary security provider in Europe and that

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Speaker 11: they need to equalize and that's where we're This pledge

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Speaker 11: and this commitment that we're going to see out of

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Speaker 11: the HAG really gets us to that point where they equalize,

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Speaker 11: they share the burden with the United States of America,

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Speaker 11: and the United States of America can address other very

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Speaker 11: important security needs across the globe.

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Speaker 4: All that said, Ambassador, I go back to your chest

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Speaker 4: stimony in your confirmation hearing, and I wonder if you

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Speaker 4: see your primary goal or if the President has told

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Speaker 4: you your primary charge is to keep the peace in

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Speaker 4: Europe or to get NATO members to pay more on

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Speaker 4: defense and reach that five percent goal.

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Speaker 5: Well, I don't see that as any either or answer,

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Speaker 5: you know.

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Speaker 11: For me, I see that we need our NATO allies

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Speaker 11: to be strong. We need them to equalize with the

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Speaker 11: United States of America, and at the same time, the

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Speaker 11: strength will deter Russia and other adversaries from making a

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Speaker 11: move on NATO territory, and therefore we will have peace.

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Speaker 11: You cannot be weak and have peace. You will be

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Speaker 11: taken advantage of by those that are stronger. And so

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Speaker 11: the United States is a great ally and a great friend,

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Speaker 11: and we're just making sure that all of our NATO allies,

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Speaker 11: all thirty one other allies are strong as well with us.

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Speaker 2: All right, mister ambassador, we appreciate you joining us here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio today. That's the US Ambassador

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Speaker 2: to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, joining us live from the north

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Speaker 2: lawn of the White House and inside the White House. Actually,

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Speaker 2: right now inside the briefing room, the White House Press

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Speaker 2: Secretary Caroline Levitt is speaking to reporters talking about another

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Speaker 2: area of conflicts, specifically the Middle East and Iran, saying

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Speaker 2: that President Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

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Speaker 2: today about talks with Iran, but about also something that

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Speaker 2: happened here in Washington, DC last night, a shooting of

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Speaker 2: a couple two individuals who worked at the Israeli embassy

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Speaker 2: as they were leaving the capital Jewish Museum. The assailant,

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Speaker 2: according to police, who fatally shot them, chanting Free Palestine

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Speaker 2: as he was taken into custody. And as there's bipartisan

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Speaker 2: condemnation against this attack, what is being described as terrorist

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Speaker 2: attack and an anti Semitic hate crime, we wanted to

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Speaker 2: get the reaction from our political panel, Rick Davis and

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Speaker 2: Genie Shanze. No Bloomberg Politics contributors are still with us. Rick,

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Speaker 2: as we consider the events of last night, knowing if

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Speaker 2: they happened elsewhere in Gaza, for example, or in another

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Speaker 2: area other than the nation's capital where other things have

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Speaker 2: been taking place, I would imagine there would be a

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Speaker 2: great deal more attention on it. But what is the

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Speaker 2: implication here as we consider a White House that has

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Speaker 2: been incredibly focused on combating anti Semitism in this country.

439
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 5: I think it's actually a message that it needs to

440
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 5: be not just.

441
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 9: The White House, but all other institutions that we have

442
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 9: in public and private sector. You know, Uronletinski and Sarah

443
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 9: Milgram were beautiful young people just starting their lives together

444
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 9: and struck down in a political hate crime. There's no

445
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 9: question in my mind what has motivated this just four

446
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 9: blocks from the White or from the Capitol building itself.

447
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 9: It has to be unacceptable to everybody, regardless of what

448
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 9: their political views are, what party they're in, what views

449
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 9: are about Gaza and Israel. This should be condemned at

450
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 9: every level, and it really needs to be a moment

451
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 9: where we spend time on it because if we don't,

452
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 9: we subscribe this to history that it'll happen again. So,

453
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 9: you know, I appreciate you bringing it up on the

454
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 9: show because I really think it's a moment in time

455
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 9: that's important.

456
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 4: I'm glad you said their names, Rick ron Lishinsky Sarah

457
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 4: Milgrim were going to be married. They were said to

458
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 4: be engaged this summer. Genie, what does it tell you

459
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 4: when stories like this are emerging here on us soil,

460
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: you know, it.

461
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 8: Is so distressing, what a heinous act, you know. I

462
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 8: was just learning more about Sarah, just twenty six years old.

463
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 8: She was a peace activist. She believed in reconciliation, coming

464
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 8: to common understanding between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Everything

465
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 8: you would want in somebody seeking peace and deeply committed

466
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 8: to that, and just twenty six for both of them

467
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 8: to be gunned down. We've seen a shocking rise in

468
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 8: anti Semitism in the United States and around the world,

469
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 8: and sadly, this unfortunately is not surprising anybody who is

470
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 8: familiar with any Jewish organization in this country. I live

471
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 8: in New York. We have a lot of them. They

472
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 8: have extra security. Young Jewish people grow up knowing that

473
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 8: they are a target. And of course Sarah ander fiance

474
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 8: or soon to be fiance, they knew that as well.

475
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 8: And so we do need a serious conversation about dealing

476
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 8: with anti Semitism that starts at the White House, as

477
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 8: it has, but goes beyond that. Torix's point, and let's

478
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 8: not forget this is coming not that long after the

479
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 8: Governor of Pennsylvania's house was firebomb So this is a recurring,

480
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 8: sad and unfortunate situation in which two promising young people

481
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 8: have been killed.

482
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 2: Well, and we also have to consider with the lives

483
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: lost here Rick, the wider context, the backdrop with which

484
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 2: this attack happened, which is we've been talking for weeks

485
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: now about what seems to be a distancing between the

486
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: Trump administration and the net Yahoo government in Israel and

487
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 2: kind of a break in some areas of policy, not

488
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 2: just on Iran, but also in Israel's current conduct in Gaza.

489
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,959
Speaker 2: What does this tragedy add or how does it potentially

490
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: alter the way in which these two are going to

491
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 2: be interacting From here, well, there's.

492
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 9: No question it refocuses the public's attention and the media

493
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 9: on the relationship between the US and Israel, on issues

494
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 9: related to anti Semitism, on the Gulf region, and specifically

495
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,479
Speaker 9: what's happening in Gaza. And there's plenty to report on.

496
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 9: This is a area that needs lots of attention, and

497
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 9: if there is a legacy to Iran and Sarah, it

498
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 9: would be that we spend time thinking about how to

499
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 9: cure some of these problems. Israel can't continue to live

500
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 9: in a hostile environment. As Jennie said, children here in

501
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 9: the United States who are Jewish grow up knowing they're

502
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 9: a target. But the entire state of Israel wakes up

503
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 9: every morning thinking that somebody is there to kill them.

504
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 9: That is just unacceptable in a world we live in today.

505
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 9: I think that it is a positive that we are

506
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 9: now going to refocus because of this heinous crime on

507
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 9: an area of the world that if it is not fixed,

508
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 9: we'll come back to haunt us in the future.

509
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 4: Well, it does make you wonder what the fallout would

510
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 4: be if Israel did follow through on reports of an

511
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 4: attack against Iran Genie. We heard from Dan Bongino, the

512
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 4: deputy FBI director after this happened. He says, early indicators

513
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 4: are that this is an act of targeted violence. I

514
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 4: think Rick referred to this as political violence. Isn't this

515
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 4: a terror attack that happened in Washington, d C.

516
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 8: It is, you know, in the nineteenth twentieth century they

517
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 8: used to call it propaganda of the deed, and it's

518
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 8: and a violent action meant to influence and change public opinion.

519
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 8: And if the reports that we heard but from what

520
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 8: happened last night, are to be believed, and we've seen

521
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 8: some of the videos. This is part of that. So

522
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 8: whether we call it, you know, an act of political violence,

523
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 8: propaganda of the deed, or just an act of violence

524
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 8: and terrorism, the result is it does have a very

525
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 8: difficult chilling effect, not to mention the people's lives lost.

526
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 8: And so there really has to be an effort in

527
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 8: this country and around the world to combat hate of

528
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 8: all kinds, but anti Semitism in this case, and we

529
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 8: haven't done a good job on that. I'm at a

530
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 8: university on college campuses. This is an enormous, enormous challenge

531
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 8: and part of what is driving this is what young

532
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 8: people are seeing in the pictures that are coming over

533
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 8: from Gaza and from that war. So we have a

534
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 8: president who just came from the Middle East. He did

535
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 8: not visit with net and Yahoo or even stop in Israel.

536
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 8: So we have to think very carefully about how we

537
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 8: deal with the challenge that is the Middle East and

538
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 8: the war that has gone on since October seventh.

539
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: Well, Genie, I'm glad you raised that you spend a

540
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: lot of time on college campuses where obviously we have

541
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: seen a lot of protest activity, though not necessarily all

542
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: of it violent. And this is what has come to

543
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: issue in the actions from the Secretary of State Mark Rubio,

544
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: for example, in the attempt to revoke visas of those

545
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: who were found to be anti Semitic, or in the

546
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: allegations of this administration sympathizing with terrorists. How does an

547
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 2: attack like this, which obviously is very very different in

548
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 2: actual crime and violence committed here versus words that are

549
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 2: spoken at a protest or that kind of thing, what

550
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 2: does this add to the complications around how free speech

551
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: and anti semitism arguments are at play here.

552
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm so glad you raised that, Kelly, because this

553
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 8: is what makes it very difficult to distinguish between speech

554
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 8: and violence. And we must because we live in a

555
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 8: country where we protect speech and we find any form

556
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 8: of violence deplorable. And when these acts of violence happen,

557
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 8: it gives rise to a lot of fear, understandably, and

558
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 8: then there are pushes to do what the administration has

559
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 8: been doing with some of these folks on Columbia and elsewhere,

560
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 8: and we cannot allow that unless, of course, the law

561
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 8: is broken. In any act of violence is a violation

562
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 8: of the law.

563
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 4: We're glad we could have this conversation with Rick Davis

564
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 4: and Jeanie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. A great panel today,

565
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 4: and thank you both for the insights.

566
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

567
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: US Live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

568
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

569
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch US

570
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: Live on YouTube.

571
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: To see what's happening in the bond market today, yield's

572
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 2: moving a bit back lower after a massive spike at

573
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 2: the long end yesterday amid concerns about fiscal policy in

574
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: the US, knowing that the House did just this morning

575
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: pass the one big beautiful bill as they call it,

576
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 2: that could add trillions of dollars to the deficit, and

577
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: of course feeds into concerns about fiscal responsibility in the

578
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: aftermath of last week's downgrade of the US sovereign credit

579
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 2: rating by Moody's. And while we've been characterizing the next

580
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: big hurdle in this here on Balance of Power as

581
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: being the US Senate, which gets this bill next, interesting

582
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: to see the reporting from our colleagues that you can

583
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 2: find on the terminal and online today that actually the

584
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 2: next big hurdle might just be the bond market.

585
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. I think we've been on this bead

586
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 4: appropriately this week. You've still got a thirty year above

587
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 4: five percent of ten year above four point five, and

588
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 4: this is pretty good stuff. Liz McCormick sharing the byline

589
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: Trump's next hurdle. Indeed, the bond market hates this beautiful bill.

590
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 4: She's with us now, Bloomberg Chief corresponding Global macro Markets.

591
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 5: Liz.

592
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 4: We've been trying to get you on the program since

593
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 4: it came to Washington, so this must be an important day.

594
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 4: It's great to have you with us here. The bond

595
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 4: market has spoken. I guess I'm just curious to see

596
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 4: what might come next from here. The Senate is supposed

597
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: to soften the edges around some of these matters.

598
00:32:58,760 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 7: Is this factored in?

599
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 12: Yeah, well, I think people are saying, you know, show me,

600
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 12: you know, in the sense of, no one's going to believe, oh,

601
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 12: it could get better with the Senate unless it really does, right.

602
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 12: I think that's what the bond investors have gotten to that,

603
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 12: you know, because a few people said, kind of what's new,

604
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 12: We kind of knew this projections of how this package

605
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 12: would go. And you know, there was some massaging, like

606
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 12: you said, the overnight deals, but I think, like you mentioned,

607
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 12: the Moody's downgrade late on Friday, brought it more top

608
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 12: of mind, the fiscal and then the budget going through,

609
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 12: and I think a lot of it is investors are

610
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 12: saying to me, well, they're saying, well, we'll grow our

611
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 12: way out of this, but we don't quite believe that right,

612
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 12: you know, So if you do the numbers, and the

613
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 12: people that have scored this smarter than me have said,

614
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 12: it's still going to increase the debt, you know, in

615
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 12: the long run, the debit that's going up. So I

616
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 12: think the bond market is just kind of saying kind

617
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 12: of enough, you know, we want to see something to

618
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 12: change the outlook.

619
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 13: And remember there's a kind of a.

620
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 12: Global bond sell off going on, you know, with this

621
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 12: kind of fiscal top of mind in many countries, So

622
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 12: it's adding momentum.

623
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 13: So I think that's the thing.

624
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 12: And people are just worried, like, what in the end

625
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 12: is the final package.

626
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 13: I don't think it'll get better, that's what they keep saying.

627
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 2: Well, so if the idea is that the final package

628
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: could add to the deficit. All of it underscores the

629
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 2: potential growing credibility problem for the United States and questions

630
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 2: around the full faith and credit of the United States.

631
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: Is there actually a chance list that there is a

632
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 2: lack of demand for treasuries, that we actually see the

633
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 2: bond market having difficulties with functioning properly that would require say,

634
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: intervention from the Federal Reserve, as we've seen in the past.

635
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 12: Well, we're not there yet, you know. I try to

636
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 12: be calm in a voice of reason, and you know,

637
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 12: like people were saying to me yesterday, it's the speed

638
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 12: of the move so so far it's been you know high,

639
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 12: you know, above five percent, but we're not kind of

640
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 12: going twenty five basis points a day, which would be scary.

641
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 12: So I think for now the Federal Reserve can take

642
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 12: calm that the market it is functioning, so that's not

643
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 12: top of mind for them. But I do think, like

644
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 12: people were saying, something else has to change. We need

645
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 12: another catalyst. Let's say, you know, the budget is what

646
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 12: it is, we need something different to really see signs

647
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 12: that the economy is slowing. Right, There's several factors that

648
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 12: weigh into bonds and right now, the fiscal is top

649
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 12: of mind. But if we start in higher rates slow

650
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 12: the economy. Right The housing market doesn't do as well

651
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 12: with higher rates. So people are saying it might be

652
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 12: a little self reinforcing that if bond yields go so high,

653
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 12: it may slow the economy, which may make you think, oh,

654
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 12: maybe the Fed's going to actually cut more than we

655
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 12: think right now, which kind of is a pull down

656
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 12: on yields. People still prefer to stay in the shorter

657
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 12: end of the longer end, but I think that's what

658
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 12: we want to see. You know, does the labor market

659
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 12: ever crack? You know, not that people want that, and

660
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 12: you know the administration doesn't want that, but that may

661
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 12: slow the rise and yields overall.

662
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 2: All right, Liz McCormick, Bloomberg Chief Global macro Markets correspondent

663
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: here with us on balance of power with an eye

664
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 2: on the market. Thank you so much. And we also

665
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,479
Speaker 2: have our eye on the wire where a breaking news

666
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 2: headline has just crossed from the New York Times as

667
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: the US has now halted Harvard's ability to enroll international students.

668
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: This according to a letter that was sent to the

669
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 2: university by the Department of Homeland Security Secretary Christinome. The

670
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 2: copy of that letter was obtained by The New York Times,

671
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: in which she writes that they are informing you, effective immediately,

672
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: Harvard University Student and Exchange Visitors Program certification is revoked. This,

673
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: of course, show would mark a major escalation in an

674
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 2: ongoing feud between the Trump administration and Harvard, now not

675
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 2: just limiting it to the revoking of funding in federal grants,

676
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 2: but actually halting their ability to enroll internationalist Yeah, this

677
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 2: is amazing.

678
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 4: They've got their hands on the letter, The New York

679
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 4: Times quoting three people with knowledge of the negotiations as

680
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 4: sources here.

681
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 7: I suspect this is.

682
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 4: Something we'll be hearing about from the White House. But

683
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 4: indeed in escalation after the President threatened to pull all

684
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 4: federal funding from Harvard as well.

685
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: Which of course is in the billions of dollars. This

686
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: story will continue to follow for you here on balance

687
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: of power. But we also want to get back to

688
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 2: what happened this morning on Capitol Hill, something else President

689
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 2: Trump has been heavily involved in and cared a lot about,

690
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 2: and that was the passage of the so called One

691
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 2: Big Beautiful Bill in the House of Representatives.

692
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 13: This thing was a squeaker.

693
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 2: Wasn't clear if Speaker Johnson was actually going to be

694
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:23,399
Speaker 2: able to get your bill vote two fifteen to two fourteen. Yeah,

695
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: basically first thing this morning after the House had to

696
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 2: go all night getting everyone in line.

697
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 4: Wasn't that something A lot of us woke up wondering

698
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 4: when this was going to happen. In about ten minutes later,

699
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 4: they were pushing this to the floor. Timing was everything here,

700
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 4: and clearly Speaker Johnson was ahead of the curve on this.

701
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 4: As people were doubting whether this could even get to

702
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: a vote this week, he was telling us it would

703
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 4: happen by the.

704
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 7: End of the day today and it sure.

705
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 2: Did met his self imposed Memorial Day deadline. So for

706
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 2: more we turned to Sarah Chamberlain, who's president and CEO

707
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 2: of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which of course has

708
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: many members that voted for this legislation today. Welcome back

709
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Sarah, obvious, this was hard fought.

710
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 2: It was not easy for the Speaker to get this

711
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: done this morning, knowing that this is going to head

712
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: to the Senate next and possibly changed form. Is he

713
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:10,800
Speaker 2: going to be able to pull it off a second

714
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: time if this bill does not stay exactly as it

715
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 2: is currently written.

716
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 13: Yes, you will. I mean, it's what he did was

717
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 13: kind of a little bit of magic. It was fascinating

718
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 13: to watch it because a lot of it happened as

719
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 13: we've talked about before at the Main Street townhouse. But yes,

720
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 13: when when it comes back from the Senate, he will

721
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 13: have the votes again, and it would have been a

722
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 13: little higher margin today. But fortunate at least warning somebody heard.

723
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, nobody will, so you can confirm that, I

724
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 2: can confirm.

725
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 7: Unfortunately, there were two who didn't make it. It was

726
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 7: a schliker didn't get there either.

727
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 13: Well, they were kind of there, but at least one

728
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 13: of them was there, but sleeping.

729
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 7: Honestly, if it had been me, I would have been

730
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 7: dozing off that.

731
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean they'd been up. I mean, actually some

732
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 13: of them have been up forty eight hours. Absolutely, they

733
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 13: were exhaust.

734
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 7: Twenty one hour long rules committee hearing or something like that.

735
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 13: It's been a very long Well, you.

736
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 4: Get a gold star again for pointing us to what

737
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 4: was going to happen. You told this this was going

738
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 4: to happen, and I find it interesting that we spent

739
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 4: so much time obsessing over moderates from New York and

740
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 4: members of the Freedom Caucus, But it was actually the

741
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 4: chair of the Republican main Street Caucus, right, Dusty Johnson,

742
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 4: who played a very pivotal and quiet role in.

743
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 13: Making this work one hundred percent. I didn't realize you

744
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 13: knew that. Yes, yeah, so Dusty. So Dusty is very

745
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 13: close with the speaker. The Speaker is a really he's

746
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 13: very religious and he really does believe that. I mean,

747
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 13: he fouls his religion. He does not lie to the members,

748
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 13: he does not do back door deals. He trusts Dusty

749
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 13: one hundred percent. So Dusty last night came over to

750
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 13: the Townhouse and said, listen, we think we have a

751
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 13: deal here. It is, but he needs to know what

752
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 13: the main Street Caucus feels. So reported back. Dusty went back.

753
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 13: But Dusty, I mean, he's absolutely the right hand of

754
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 13: the Speaker. There's a couple others that are as well,

755
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 13: but Dusty really is pivotal.

756
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 7: And something about the moderates in this caucus, then it does.

757
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 13: The main Street conc is very powerful, extremely powerful. They

758
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 13: hate call themselves to moderates. Yeah, the main Street Conservatives.

759
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 13: But they're They're very important, and of course the Salt

760
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 13: Caucus was also part of Main Street, so they worked

761
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 13: very hard and making sure they could cover the Salt

762
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 13: woman who gets a lot of credit for that as

763
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 13: Young Kim. She's not much covered in the media, but

764
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 13: she fought really hard along with the New York members.

765
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 2: Okay, so when we consider the changes that the Salt

766
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 2: Caucus were able to secure, a lifting of the cap

767
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: to forty thousand dollars, the changes that needed to be

768
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 2: made to appease the hardcore fiscal conservatives because of that

769
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,720
Speaker 2: higher salt cap and bringing forward work requirements around Medicaid

770
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,720
Speaker 2: and rollbacks to the Inflation Reduction Act of those things,

771
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: or potentially, I guess we could add other things in

772
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: there as well in terms of Medicaid changes and things

773
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 2: like that. What are you expecting the Senate is going

774
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: to be most eager to tweak here, even if you

775
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 2: think it can get back through the House. What are

776
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: you anticipating is the end product from the Upper.

777
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 13: Chamber Actually neither one of those. We think those will

778
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 13: probably stay pretty close. It is the funding for solar

779
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 13: and nuclear that that area got really caught. We think

780
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 13: the Sunate would probably put some money back into back

781
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 13: into that, but that the medicaid. Nobody is opposed to

782
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 13: a twenty hour work week, and you know that could

783
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,280
Speaker 13: be volunteering too. And it's only the healthy, I mean children.

784
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 13: I know, the Democrats a running commercials like little born

785
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 13: in wheelchair. He's not going to lose his coverage. It

786
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 13: is people who can go to work in some form

787
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 13: of work in just twenty hours. Get them up, get

788
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 13: him out of the house, get them you know, doing something.

789
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 7: Able bodied manage.

790
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 4: Right, So if that gets tweaked in the Senate, is

791
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 4: that unpalatable? So for instance, members of the Freedom Caucus,

792
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 4: other conservative Republicans in the House, or to your point,

793
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 4: that's expected and they're going to vote yes either way anyway.

794
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 13: I think it's expected. I don't think the sun is

795
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 13: going to tweak that. I think they're going to leave

796
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 13: that now. It is very popular when pulled out there.

797
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 13: Most people are not against people doing something, you know,

798
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 13: working for their benefits. We're not cutting medicaid, I mean

799
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 13: that's the big everybody talks about that. It's not being cut.

800
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 13: The illegals that are being removed, and that's a big thing.

801
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 13: And the other thing they're going to do with Medicaid,

802
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 13: which we've talked about before, is they're going to keep

803
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 13: reviewing the roles and make sure people who are on

804
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 13: the rolls should still be on the roles. They haven't

805
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:16,320
Speaker 13: been cleaned up in years.

806
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,919
Speaker 2: When we think about those changes to Medicaid, though, having

807
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: been brought forward to December of twenty twenty six, very

808
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 2: very close to the midterms. Knowing at the Main Street

809
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 2: Partnership you also are focused on retaining that majority and

810
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: in those swing districts in particular that make or break it.

811
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 2: Are you even just a little bit worried about the

812
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 2: electoral implications here?

813
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 13: No, not really, because if it's explained correctly, which I

814
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 13: have an outbed that does, it's going to be fine.

815
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 13: It's very popular. The work requirements actually extremely popular back

816
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 13: in our districts. In removing the illegals from the roles

817
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 13: are also very popular.

818
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 4: This is going to require some nuanced messaging though, and

819
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 4: I suspect the Main Street Partnership will be deeply involved

820
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 4: in that.

821
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 7: Right you have an op ed up tell us where

822
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 7: it is.

823
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 13: This is something that yeah, we're getting ready to place it.

824
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 7: Crating this now is the point.

825
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 13: Crafting it now, so really it can be explained this

826
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 13: is really what this bill does, and stop hearing the

827
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 13: rhetoric and kind of both sides. Here are the facts

828
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 13: and that is what that's what we've done.

829
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 2: Well, of course, the bill can't do it yet until

830
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 2: final passage and it's signed by President Trump. We heard

831
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 2: the Speaker today say July fourth. We heard Russ Fotheo

832
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 2: and b Director also saying the President wants to see

833
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 2: this on his desk by July fourth. Considering that Speaker

834
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 2: Johnson was able to do this pre Memorial Day recess,

835
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: is that next holiday deadline now looking like a realistic

836
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 2: possible You.

837
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 13: Have to ask Senator Thuon on that one. I think

838
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 13: probably the President has been he gets what he wants.

839
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 13: I mean, he really does get the members in line,

840
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 13: so potentially, yes, I wasn't sure we'd get it done now.

841
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 13: To be honest, man, I talked about when it might

842
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 13: go into June. So we're certainly thrilled that it did.

843
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 13: So hopefully Senator Thune will get it done.

844
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 4: The Senate side, do we frame this relationship between the

845
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 4: House and the Senate in the right way? Does the

846
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 4: Senate respect process in the House, will they be sensitive

847
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 4: to the five families, to the factions that we're talking

848
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 4: about here on all of these issues, or is the

849
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 4: Upper Chamber going to fulfill its reputation of jamming the

850
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 4: House and doing whatever it wants.

851
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 13: I think they understand there's new leadership. They understand the

852
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 13: important of the House. The House is so close, the

853
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 13: margins are right there. They understand if the bill doesn't

854
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 13: come back similar to what was sent over, it won't

855
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 13: pass again, and that then President Trump will not get

856
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 13: his agenda.

857
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: Well, so, while the Senate has this in hand and

858
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 2: works on it for however many weeks in June, what's

859
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: the next thing for the House to focus on? In

860
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 2: the meantime, we haven't seen a great deal of legislating

861
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 2: so far.

862
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 13: This scums. I think they're going to sleep for a while,

863
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 13: To be honest, I don't know they're beginning to talk

864
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 13: about what the next bill should be. But to be honest,

865
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 13: all they've talked about is getting this done. So I

866
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 13: really can't tell you if they're going to take a

867
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 13: break and then they'll be back and start getting back

868
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 13: to you should come back.

869
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 5: With some steam.

870
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 4: They're going to be marketing parades and having town all meetings,

871
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 4: talking with the neighbors right right.

872
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 13: And hopefully the people back home will be supporting what

873
00:44:59,640 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 13: they did.

874
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 4: We'll come back and see us post Memorial Day. I

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Speaker 4: hope you have a great and long weekend. Sarah Chamberlain,

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Speaker 4: Thank you for pointing.

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Speaker 7: The way here.

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Speaker 4: The President's CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership and

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Speaker 4: a great source for us when it comes to all

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Speaker 4: things Capitol Hill and in the House. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 4: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

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Speaker 4: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

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Speaker 4: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

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Speaker 4: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.