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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Aisier podcast. I'm Doug Krisner.
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Speaker 3: Joining us now on the program is Michelle Lamb, Greater
Speaker 3: China economist for Associated General, to take a closer look
Speaker 3: at the Chinese economy. After yesterday we got some PMI
Speaker 3: numbers from both Taishin and from the government the official
Speaker 3: PMI that were better than expected and well above fifty. Michelle,
Speaker 3: thanks very much for joining us here for some discussion
Speaker 3: on the economy. So you had exports that were pretty positive,
Speaker 3: manufacturing looking better, not great, but better, but consumer spending
Speaker 3: still a little bit week. Where are we in this
Speaker 3: process of resuming strength in the economy.
Speaker 4: I think for the Chinese economy this year, it would
Speaker 4: be fair to say that on a cylical basis it
Speaker 4: should be better compared to twenty twenty three. After all,
Speaker 4: we've had the government issuing one trillion special cgbs to
Speaker 4: support more infrastructure investments, which should be coming food in
Speaker 4: the first quarter second quarter this year. And at the
Speaker 4: same time, as for example, you look at the US
Speaker 4: manufacturing PII number yesterday, it seems that the external demand
Speaker 4: is also on a better on a better path for
Speaker 4: this year. So I think that would also be stilled
Speaker 4: back to the China's manufacturing sector. But the only thing
Speaker 4: is that for the consumer demand, it is still pretty weak.
Speaker 4: And there's really to do with the fact that the
Speaker 4: property sector is still in a very bad shape in
Speaker 4: China right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt about that. Deflationary pressures do and strong
Speaker 2: credit expansion has been very very weak. So the question is,
Speaker 2: if you're the authorities in China, what do you do
Speaker 2: to try to rekindle the animal spirit so to speak?
Speaker 2: I mean, is there a policy that you can imagine,
Speaker 2: maybe it's more fiscal than monetary, but is there a
Speaker 2: prescription here that can resuscitate the economy in a more
Speaker 2: durable way.
Speaker 4: I think there's a prescription, but right now I think
Speaker 4: there's still pretty strong hesitation for the government to use it,
Speaker 4: which is to issue some consumption coupons to encourage the
Speaker 4: people to spend, or to actually cut some payments on
Speaker 4: the national contributions for example, or cutting some taxes to
Speaker 4: encourage to support a household income which would feed through
Speaker 4: to household consumption even though timeburary. But I think that's
Speaker 4: too strong hesitation for the government.
Speaker 3: To really use this in looking at the pmis generally
Speaker 3: around Asia. We had some improvement in Taiwan and Japan.
Speaker 3: We had a little bit of weakness in South Korea
Speaker 3: and Vietnam. So mixed, I suppose, But in one sense,
Speaker 3: the policy makers seem to be reasonably patient. So if
Speaker 3: I could draw comparison between the FED, which is showing
Speaker 3: or asking for patients on dealing with inflation, it's willing
Speaker 3: to see some slow progress in getting to the goal,
Speaker 3: and it seems like Chinese policymakers are urging a bit
Speaker 3: of patients. Is that wrong? Should they look for more
Speaker 3: acute action in the near term?
Speaker 4: I think in some sense they're trying to make a
Speaker 4: policy room for the worst. So if you listen to
Speaker 4: some of the speeches by the top policy makers, they
Speaker 4: always advertise on this bottom line mentality, which is their books.
Speaker 5: Sample. The US election at the end of the year
Speaker 5: could be at risk.
Speaker 4: We don't know whether trouble in the presidency or if
Speaker 4: he does, if he's if he's going to impose any
Speaker 4: more parists on Chinese goods. So I think that in
Speaker 4: some sense the postimakers also try to make some room
Speaker 4: for further party stimulus, and at the same time they
Speaker 4: also understand that if they keep stimulating the investment or
Speaker 4: the supply side of the economy, it's not going to
Speaker 4: be sustainable. They want to emphasize on sustainability, So that's
Speaker 4: why they're also being pretty careful and cautious in not
Speaker 4: to do the big bat stimulus that some people expecting,
Speaker 4: like what they did in two thousand and a or
Speaker 4: twenty fifteen.
Speaker 5: So in some sense, I think this is a reasonable
Speaker 5: fair approach.
Speaker 2: Brian and I were talking a short while ago about
Speaker 2: this speech given by President she resurfaced, and it kind
Speaker 2: of suggestion just that maybe there's room for the PBOC
Speaker 2: to begin trading government bonds to regulate liquidity. I mean,
Speaker 2: it seems a little bit like what the FED has
Speaker 2: done in terms of quantitative easing on a number of occasions,
Speaker 2: once during the US financial crisis and more recently at
Speaker 2: the onset of the pandemic. In your view, is this
Speaker 2: something that's conceivable where the PBOC could adopt something similar
Speaker 2: to quantitative easing as a result or way of getting
Speaker 2: more risk into the market.
Speaker 4: So in some sense, I think for China they have
Speaker 4: always been. There are also other ways to support the
Speaker 4: put it this way, So if you talk about the
Speaker 4: PBOC buying the government bonds, it could be some kind
Speaker 4: of open market operations that to smooth the to smooth
Speaker 4: the liquidity, to avoid the volaticity in liquidity that we
Speaker 4: are seeing in China right now due to text pay
Speaker 4: for example, and we could see the more less much
Speaker 4: less volatile path in the short in the interbank bates
Speaker 4: for example.
Speaker 5: And I think that's one way to do it.
Speaker 4: And the other way that people discussing about that which
Speaker 4: is is China hoping to do monetary financing.
Speaker 5: And on this I think I'm.
Speaker 4: A bit skeptical on this because actually there are many
Speaker 4: ways that China can always finance the physical deficits. For example,
Speaker 4: the p BOC has this tool called the PSL which
Speaker 4: is in some way for the PBOC to lend to
Speaker 4: the policy banks, which in turn the policy banks can
Speaker 4: actually channel the credit to the economy, So I think
Speaker 4: actually there's already an existing framework for the for the
Speaker 4: government actually to do a so called court scie fiscal
Speaker 4: financing if they wish to so in some sense, I
Speaker 4: would be skeptical of why the government need to purchase
Speaker 4: the government bonds to do.
Speaker 3: This now, and well, they'd like to get consumer spending
Speaker 3: and housing could be a key part of that time.
Speaker 3: In a few moments ago in our media review that
Speaker 3: in Hong Kong we've seen a pick up in the
Speaker 3: purchase of homes, so they spent a lot more transactions,
Speaker 3: the most we've seen in eleven years or so. They
Speaker 3: removed a lot of the restrictions on buying. To what
Speaker 3: extent have the authorities remove those restrictions in China? And
Speaker 3: is there any hope to you know, come up with
Speaker 3: something that repeats the story we're seeing in Hong Kong.
Speaker 4: First of all, I think the situation for Hong Kong,
Speaker 4: there's some improvement in the new transactions, which I think
Speaker 4: I would still be skeptical to see if it is sustainable,
Speaker 4: because of course, when the policies relaxed, of course it's
Speaker 4: reasonable for those who have been wanting to purchase that
Speaker 4: there is a short term improvement, but afterwards we need
Speaker 4: to see the microeconomic situation like where the house, the income,
Speaker 4: the confidence are improvement, which I think is really the
Speaker 4: situation for China right now because the job and income
Speaker 4: expectations are still pretty pretty poor and the prices are
Speaker 4: still correcting. So I would think that even though some
Speaker 4: of the top tier cities they could be removing the
Speaker 4: relaxation restriction, yeah, the pressures restrictions, we could see some
Speaker 4: short term rebound that maybe at the same afterwards, we
Speaker 4: really need to focus back on the fundamentals and see
Speaker 4: if this is sustainable, and I think I'm still skeptical
Speaker 4: of whether it is. It is going to work, and
Speaker 4: I think there's still going to be some downward pressure
Speaker 4: for the prices to correct and the top city system
Speaker 4: that they're still pretty over valued.
Speaker 2: So very quickly and Michelle about twenty seconds, what's the
Speaker 2: next move on the part of the PBOC.
Speaker 5: For April.
Speaker 4: I don't expect them to do much because we've seen
Speaker 4: some improvement in the marsh pm I and I think
Speaker 4: for the first quarter GDP is going to be the
Speaker 4: pretty pretty decent as well. The next move going to
Speaker 4: be just wash the PSL if they are ramping up
Speaker 4: that to support the urban ridge the b development.
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, well thanks for how much for joining us, Michelle,
Speaker 3: Very good stuff there, Michelle Lamb, Greater China economist at
Speaker 3: Associate General.
Speaker 2: Well, the Japanese government has approved up to three point
Speaker 2: nine billion dollars in subsidies to the Chip Venture Rapidness Corporation.
Speaker 2: This is a nineteen month old startup. It's amy to
Speaker 2: compete with companies like TSMC and Samsung in the market
Speaker 2: for contact chip making. Let's take a closer look now
Speaker 2: with Bloomberg's Peter Elstrom. He is our executive editor for
Speaker 2: Asia Technology and he joins us from Tokyo. Peters, it's
Speaker 2: always a pleasure. Can you help me understand what's going
Speaker 2: on here?
Speaker 5: Now?
Speaker 2: We've been talking about trying to lessen the reliance on
Speaker 2: chip manufacturing and Taiwan. I get that. And it's kind
Speaker 2: of curious because quite a number of years ago Japan
Speaker 2: did quite a bit when it came to the manufacturing
Speaker 2: of sem conductors.
Speaker 1: What's going on right, right, it was not that long
Speaker 1: ago that the US was very concerned about the rising
Speaker 1: power of Japan and semiconductors. We've come a long way
Speaker 1: since then. Right now we have advanced semiconductor manufacturing concentrated
Speaker 1: in just a couple of locations. Taiwan is by far
Speaker 1: the most important. South Korea is also very very important
Speaker 1: because of the COVID pandemic disruptions to the supply chain,
Speaker 1: because of some concerns over China's claims to Taiwan, We've
Speaker 1: now seen many countries push ahead with trying to build
Speaker 1: up their domestic capabilities in the semiconductor industry. The US,
Speaker 1: of course, is doing that. They've got the chipsack where
Speaker 1: they're allocating tens of billions of dollars to chip companies,
Speaker 1: and here in Japan they've been very very aggressive too.
Speaker 1: They do have that foundation from a few decades ago
Speaker 1: where they were one of the most advanced countries in
Speaker 1: terms of chip making, and they're trying to rebuild some
Speaker 1: of those capabilities in a number of different areas. They
Speaker 1: are giving money to TSM, see the Taiwanese chip company
Speaker 1: that leads the way in what are known as logic
Speaker 1: chips in this case with rapidest. This is as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: it's a brand new venture. It's a domestic company that's
Speaker 1: backed by the government, and their goal is to build
Speaker 1: an advanced semiconductor fabrication facility up on the northern island
Speaker 1: of Hokkaido to produce custom made chips contract. It's contract manufacturing,
Speaker 1: so you specifically devise chips for customers to their designs.
Speaker 1: This is what TMC now does for customers like Apple
Speaker 1: and Nvidia and rapid ESC's case, they'd like some of
Speaker 1: those contracts also in say artificial intelligence. They also want
Speaker 1: to make sure that they're able to make those kinds
Speaker 1: of advanced chips for domestic companies like Toyota and the
Speaker 1: rest of the automotive industry, which is a real foundation
Speaker 1: of the economy here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you sort of phased into what was going to
Speaker 3: be my first question about whether or not this was
Speaker 3: more support for RAPIDUS or actually just in establishing japan
Speaker 3: com on that because they've offered billions to TSMC and
Speaker 3: I think Micron as well. Right, so let's talk a
Speaker 3: little bit about this specific company young as it is.
Speaker 3: It's teaming up with researchers at IBM on exactly what right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they are using some technology from IBM. They've
Speaker 1: also had engineers go out to the state of New
Speaker 1: York to do training with IBM to try to be
Speaker 1: able to build advanced semiconductors that will be two to
Speaker 1: three nanometers at the cutting edge of chip making today,
Speaker 1: probably won't quite be at the cutting edge when they
Speaker 1: plan to come online. They've got a long ways to
Speaker 1: go here. Just to lay out some of the enormous
Speaker 1: challenges ahead for the company right now, TSMC leads this
Speaker 1: market and being able to make three nanometer chips for
Speaker 1: things like the iPhone, and Samsung has been trying to
Speaker 1: compete in that business with TSM, and it has been struggling. Frankly,
Speaker 1: they haven't been able to get customers at the kind
Speaker 1: of rate that they expected. They haven't been able to
Speaker 1: build up their foundry business very successfully. So Rapidess, again,
Speaker 1: a company that only was formed a couple of years
Speaker 1: ago and does not have that track record of being
Speaker 1: able to manufacture chips successfully, is targeting and advanced advanced
Speaker 1: technologies to be able to build cutting edge chips, and
Speaker 1: it's not at all clear that they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to fine tune the manufacturing processes to be able
Speaker 1: to compete with leaders like DSMC.
Speaker 2: Well, they rely on equipment manufactured by ASML, it's a.
Speaker 1: Very good question. The reason that Rapidess has gained so
Speaker 1: much support internally here in Japan is because they have
Speaker 1: a lot of domestic expertise within the country and within
Speaker 1: the staff. They're being led by an executive from Tokyo Electron,
Speaker 1: which makes chip making equipment, and Japan is actually very
Speaker 1: very critical at and phases of the semiconductor supply chain,
Speaker 1: including in what's known as photo resists many of the
Speaker 1: chemicals and materials that go into the chip making supply chain. ASML,
Speaker 1: of course makes the most advanced chip making equipment out there.
Speaker 1: It makes its highest m machines are EUV machines, which
Speaker 1: help make three nanometer in the future two nanimeter technology
Speaker 1: for customers like Nvidia and Apple in Tokyo Electronics a
Speaker 1: little bit behind that, but Rapidus plans on leaning on
Speaker 1: all of those customers to be able to make these
Speaker 1: advanced chips.
Speaker 3: So I guess going back to the original question about
Speaker 3: Japan doing this not just to support Rapidness, but to
Speaker 3: try to establish its own credentials as a place to
Speaker 3: make fabs and to advance and move forward in semiconductor manufacturing.
Speaker 3: Where is it on that along that road in that process.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a very good question, and it's an interesting
Speaker 1: time where we have governments becoming much more active industrial planning.
Speaker 1: In past years, of course, the United States and Japan
Speaker 1: sort of the government entities backed out of the market
Speaker 1: and let private corporations really lead the way. That's in
Speaker 1: contrast to say, Taiwan and South Korea in particular, where
Speaker 1: the governments have been quite successful and helping to support
Speaker 1: some of these local providers. In Japan, they of course
Speaker 1: had a long history of a very active government hand
Speaker 1: in all sorts of sectors, including semiconductors. At this point,
Speaker 1: they are trying to rebuild some of the capabilities that
Speaker 1: they had in the past. Right now, they don't have
Speaker 1: a leading edge logic chip manufacturer like a TSMC, for example,
Speaker 1: or an Intel in the US. Even they do have
Speaker 1: players in the memory chip market, notably Kyoshow, which competes
Speaker 1: with Samsung in memory chips and heinis and memory chips,
Speaker 1: but they're not at the cutting edge anymore. So they
Speaker 1: have quite a bit of ground to make up. As
Speaker 1: you alluded to earlier, they are helping to subsidize Micron,
Speaker 1: another memory chip maker, an American memory chip maker that
Speaker 1: is building out a fab here, but they have some
Speaker 1: ground to make up, both on the memory chip side
Speaker 1: and on the logic chip side of the industry.
Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff, good conversation. Thank you so much, Peter. Peter Elstrom,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Executive Editor for Asia Technology, helping us understand the
Speaker 2: investment being made by the Japanese government in the way
Speaker 2: of subsidies for this new chip venture Rapidness Corporation. David
Speaker 2: Finnerdy is with us. David is Bloomberg FX and rate
Speaker 2: Strategisty joins us from our studios in Singapore. A lot
Speaker 2: of ground to cover here, David. Let's begin with this
Speaker 2: HM number that we had for the US. In terms
Speaker 2: of the PMI data, we're seeing expansion on the manufacturing
Speaker 2: side for the first time since twenty twenty two. And
Speaker 2: the report, maybe a little concerning to the FED, is
Speaker 2: that the cost of materials and other outputs increased a bit.
Speaker 2: Do you think it's enough to really change the calculus
Speaker 2: when we talk about the FED cutting interest rates? Should
Speaker 2: we be looking at not three, but maybe two or
Speaker 2: maybe even one?
Speaker 6: I think definitely, well, certainly I think this step by step.
Speaker 6: I think two is definitely a possibility. I think there's
Speaker 6: no question about that. You know, how it plays up
Speaker 6: between two and three I think obviously depends how data
Speaker 6: comes out. I think arguably more certainly the is and
Speaker 6: manufacturing is important, but really it's the services economy. So
Speaker 6: I think the services data that comes out I think
Speaker 6: it's on Wednesday will arguely more important, and obviously the
Speaker 6: payroll data as well, so let's see how those come out.
Speaker 6: But having said that, the predictions of that will come
Speaker 6: out quite solid. Payrolls about two hundred, the service and
Speaker 6: manufacturing about fifty two point eight, so certainly solid data
Speaker 6: which backs up this idea. As as fed Chepal said
Speaker 6: that we're in no hurry to cut, not that they
Speaker 6: won't cut, but there are no hurry to cut, and
Speaker 6: beg the question, if you keep getting this solid data,
Speaker 6: how many more cuts do you need this year? So
Speaker 6: the market has actually down its pricing to think sixty
Speaker 6: five basis points at the moment, and I think if
Speaker 6: the data stays strong, you could certainly make a good
Speaker 6: case say, look, actually only two rate cuts it's needed
Speaker 6: this year. If it continue strong, then it gets to
Speaker 6: your further point of is actually just one needed, and
Speaker 6: I don't think that could be written off at the moment,
Speaker 6: but certainly for the moment, I think we'll go for
Speaker 6: two to three is the most probable.
Speaker 3: In your view. Is the FAED kind of fudging the
Speaker 3: two percent target at the moment.
Speaker 6: I don't think so. Look it's saying it wants two percent.
Speaker 6: It says that it's going to go be forty percent,
Speaker 6: which makes sense. I mean, you want the trend going
Speaker 6: down there. And I think the fact that you could
Speaker 6: look at that dot plot it was very fifty to fifty.
Speaker 6: I mean you had I think ten people going for
Speaker 6: three or more cuts and you're nine going for two
Speaker 6: or less cut. So I think the FED saying, look,
Speaker 6: we'll do what we need to do to get it
Speaker 6: down there, and if we need to cut less to
Speaker 6: get that target done, we will. So I don't think
Speaker 6: it's it's fudging this at the moment.
Speaker 2: So we had a little bit of an upswing in
Speaker 2: China's economy at least if you look at the official
Speaker 2: PMI data for the month of March released over the weekend,
Speaker 2: the numbers coming in above estimates, What does it say
Speaker 2: to you about how well China is doing?
Speaker 6: I think look, it's certainly a positive I think you know,
Speaker 6: when you factory in you know, lunar year and all
Speaker 6: this sort of effects around that, you want, you know,
Speaker 6: one piece of data doesn't make a trend. Shall we say, well,
Speaker 6: suddenly it's positive. I think you obviously want a few
Speaker 6: more pieces of data to support that and corroborate that
Speaker 6: idea that it's rebounding the coast for China. So even
Speaker 6: if it's rebounding, it's slowing. It was just in you know,
Speaker 6: over fifty it wasn't like fifty three or fifty four
Speaker 6: where strong growth. So has it kind of potentially plateaued
Speaker 6: in terms of weakness? You go yes, But it doesn't
Speaker 6: all go well that it's like really, you know, churning
Speaker 6: a head on a very strong footing, certainly not the
Speaker 6: same footing that the US economy appears to be on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we had good export data too, so the
Speaker 3: manufacturing and the export data kind of go together. But
Speaker 3: it suggests that the economy is a little bifurcated. Consumer
Speaker 3: activity is still not quite up to snuff. Whereas you know,
Speaker 3: you're getting this little bit of pickup on the industrial side.
Speaker 3: You have a lot of people calling for and the
Speaker 3: reason they say that consumers are not spending is because
Speaker 3: the housing market isn't fixed. So how do you fix
Speaker 3: the housing market without taking on more debt? Some people
Speaker 3: think debt isn't even bigger problem when you look at that.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is all sort of big picture stuff.
Speaker 3: How do you separate the big picture from you know,
Speaker 3: the short term.
Speaker 6: I think it is tricky. I mean, I mean it
Speaker 6: makes good points. I think because some parts economy performing
Speaker 6: better than the others, and you said the consumers saying
Speaker 6: lagging a bit compared to other parts. So it is
Speaker 6: tricky to eventuate the two, particularly because the market when
Speaker 6: he does look at a macro picture, and at the
Speaker 6: end of the day, it's you know, how's the big
Speaker 6: picture doing. You can't just focus on one specific bit
Speaker 6: because there's always going to be something that doesn't perform
Speaker 6: how as well as you like it too, So I
Speaker 6: think you have to look at the big picture. Having
Speaker 6: said that, the property is always something that's worrying. Trend
Speaker 6: and well, it seems to have improved over the last
Speaker 6: few months, should we say from the everground and other companies, Yeah,
Speaker 6: those obviously could resurface. I think they do reservice, particularly
Speaker 6: consumers being a bit sluggish. That wouldn't bode well for
Speaker 6: consumer sentiment. You'd have to guess which could see another
Speaker 6: downturn in the Chinese economy. So I think the market
Speaker 6: would definitely like the property sector to be improving more quickly,
Speaker 6: should we say.
Speaker 2: So if you look at a potential policy response. Brian
Speaker 2: was talking earlier about something he read where maybe you
Speaker 2: have the central bank using its balance sheet in a
Speaker 2: way that would resemble quantitative easing. I know when we've
Speaker 2: talked about this in the past that the people who
Speaker 2: are really close watchers of the Central Bank say no
Speaker 2: way that China would ever do that. But are we
Speaker 2: getting closer to some type of creative exercise here on
Speaker 2: the part of the PBOC.
Speaker 6: Well, I think the market always wants to interpret anything
Speaker 6: positively that it can if I'm on it, So you
Speaker 6: can't and unfortunately a bit of a black box and
Speaker 6: we don't know exactly for sure what it's going to do.
Speaker 6: So the recent wording has potentially been interpreted that way,
Speaker 6: and you could go look at one. They've had different
Speaker 6: measures to come out to support the economy. So I
Speaker 6: don't think you can never say never I think that
Speaker 6: would always be mistakes. They never say never, and are
Speaker 6: we heading in that way slowly potentially, But I don't
Speaker 6: think it's something that's going to happen overnight. And I
Speaker 6: think that's the best way to put it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've got the Bank of Japan's story as well,
Speaker 3: possible intervention looming with the end continuing the week and
Speaker 3: dolly en one fifty one sixty four people talk about
Speaker 3: one fifty two maybe as a line. The authorities said
Speaker 3: they generally don't try to drive the end in a
Speaker 3: certain direction, maybe just to send some warning signals. What
Speaker 3: are you expecting there?
Speaker 6: Well, I think what was so interesting is I think
Speaker 6: with Susuki came out today in the Finance Minister and
Speaker 6: we're saying we're looking for excessive moves. Dolly End's gone nowhere,
Speaker 6: I mean really over the last few days. It's just
Speaker 6: it's one fifty two range. So you know, I think
Speaker 6: they're obviously very worried that they keep banging this over
Speaker 6: when it's not even really moving. So I think the
Speaker 6: next port of call I want to be seen to
Speaker 6: rate check come out soon. I think one fits to
Speaker 6: his key because if it does go, it will trigger
Speaker 6: some barriers to be triggered with in options. Okay, you
Speaker 6: see some short covering, so may asascerbate.
Speaker 2: One five to two. That's the number from David Finnerty
Speaker 2: in Dollar Yen. David Finnerty from Singapore. Here on Daybreak Asia.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
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