1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Aisier podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories, 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app well. 8 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 3: Joining us now on the program is Michelle Lamb, Greater 9 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 3: China economist for Associated General, to take a closer look 10 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 3: at the Chinese economy. After yesterday we got some PMI 11 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 3: numbers from both Taishin and from the government the official 12 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 3: PMI that were better than expected and well above fifty. Michelle, 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 3: thanks very much for joining us here for some discussion 14 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 3: on the economy. So you had exports that were pretty positive, 15 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 3: manufacturing looking better, not great, but better, but consumer spending 16 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 3: still a little bit week. Where are we in this 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: process of resuming strength in the economy. 18 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 4: I think for the Chinese economy this year, it would 19 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 4: be fair to say that on a cylical basis it 20 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 4: should be better compared to twenty twenty three. After all, 21 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 4: we've had the government issuing one trillion special cgbs to 22 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 4: support more infrastructure investments, which should be coming food in 23 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 4: the first quarter second quarter this year. And at the 24 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 4: same time, as for example, you look at the US 25 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 4: manufacturing PII number yesterday, it seems that the external demand 26 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 4: is also on a better on a better path for 27 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 4: this year. So I think that would also be stilled 28 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 4: back to the China's manufacturing sector. But the only thing 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 4: is that for the consumer demand, it is still pretty weak. 30 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 4: And there's really to do with the fact that the 31 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 4: property sector is still in a very bad shape in 32 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 4: China right now. 33 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt about that. Deflationary pressures do and strong 34 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: credit expansion has been very very weak. So the question is, 35 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: if you're the authorities in China, what do you do 36 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 2: to try to rekindle the animal spirit so to speak? 37 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: I mean, is there a policy that you can imagine, 38 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 2: maybe it's more fiscal than monetary, but is there a 39 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: prescription here that can resuscitate the economy in a more 40 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 2: durable way. 41 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 4: I think there's a prescription, but right now I think 42 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 4: there's still pretty strong hesitation for the government to use it, 43 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 4: which is to issue some consumption coupons to encourage the 44 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 4: people to spend, or to actually cut some payments on 45 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 4: the national contributions for example, or cutting some taxes to 46 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 4: encourage to support a household income which would feed through 47 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 4: to household consumption even though timeburary. But I think that's 48 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: too strong hesitation for the government. 49 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: To really use this in looking at the pmis generally 50 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 3: around Asia. We had some improvement in Taiwan and Japan. 51 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: We had a little bit of weakness in South Korea 52 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 3: and Vietnam. So mixed, I suppose, But in one sense, 53 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 3: the policy makers seem to be reasonably patient. So if 54 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 3: I could draw comparison between the FED, which is showing 55 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 3: or asking for patients on dealing with inflation, it's willing 56 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 3: to see some slow progress in getting to the goal, 57 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 3: and it seems like Chinese policymakers are urging a bit 58 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 3: of patients. Is that wrong? Should they look for more 59 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 3: acute action in the near term? 60 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 4: I think in some sense they're trying to make a 61 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 4: policy room for the worst. So if you listen to 62 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 4: some of the speeches by the top policy makers, they 63 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: always advertise on this bottom line mentality, which is their books. 64 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 5: Sample. The US election at the end of the year 65 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 5: could be at risk. 66 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 4: We don't know whether trouble in the presidency or if 67 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 4: he does, if he's if he's going to impose any 68 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 4: more parists on Chinese goods. So I think that in 69 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 4: some sense the postimakers also try to make some room 70 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 4: for further party stimulus, and at the same time they 71 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 4: also understand that if they keep stimulating the investment or 72 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 4: the supply side of the economy, it's not going to 73 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 4: be sustainable. They want to emphasize on sustainability, So that's 74 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 4: why they're also being pretty careful and cautious in not 75 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 4: to do the big bat stimulus that some people expecting, 76 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 4: like what they did in two thousand and a or 77 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 4: twenty fifteen. 78 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 5: So in some sense, I think this is a reasonable 79 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 5: fair approach. 80 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 2: Brian and I were talking a short while ago about 81 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 2: this speech given by President she resurfaced, and it kind 82 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 2: of suggestion just that maybe there's room for the PBOC 83 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: to begin trading government bonds to regulate liquidity. I mean, 84 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: it seems a little bit like what the FED has 85 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: done in terms of quantitative easing on a number of occasions, 86 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 2: once during the US financial crisis and more recently at 87 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 2: the onset of the pandemic. In your view, is this 88 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: something that's conceivable where the PBOC could adopt something similar 89 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: to quantitative easing as a result or way of getting 90 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: more risk into the market. 91 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 4: So in some sense, I think for China they have 92 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 4: always been. There are also other ways to support the 93 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 4: put it this way, So if you talk about the 94 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 4: PBOC buying the government bonds, it could be some kind 95 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 4: of open market operations that to smooth the to smooth 96 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 4: the liquidity, to avoid the volaticity in liquidity that we 97 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 4: are seeing in China right now due to text pay 98 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 4: for example, and we could see the more less much 99 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 4: less volatile path in the short in the interbank bates 100 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 4: for example. 101 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 5: And I think that's one way to do it. 102 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 4: And the other way that people discussing about that which 103 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 4: is is China hoping to do monetary financing. 104 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 5: And on this I think I'm. 105 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 4: A bit skeptical on this because actually there are many 106 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 4: ways that China can always finance the physical deficits. For example, 107 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 4: the p BOC has this tool called the PSL which 108 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 4: is in some way for the PBOC to lend to 109 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 4: the policy banks, which in turn the policy banks can 110 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 4: actually channel the credit to the economy, So I think 111 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 4: actually there's already an existing framework for the for the 112 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 4: government actually to do a so called court scie fiscal 113 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 4: financing if they wish to so in some sense, I 114 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,679 Speaker 4: would be skeptical of why the government need to purchase 115 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 4: the government bonds to do. 116 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 3: This now, and well, they'd like to get consumer spending 117 00:06:57,880 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 3: and housing could be a key part of that time. 118 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 3: In a few moments ago in our media review that 119 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 3: in Hong Kong we've seen a pick up in the 120 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 3: purchase of homes, so they spent a lot more transactions, 121 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 3: the most we've seen in eleven years or so. They 122 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 3: removed a lot of the restrictions on buying. To what 123 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: extent have the authorities remove those restrictions in China? And 124 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 3: is there any hope to you know, come up with 125 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 3: something that repeats the story we're seeing in Hong Kong. 126 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 4: First of all, I think the situation for Hong Kong, 127 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 4: there's some improvement in the new transactions, which I think 128 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 4: I would still be skeptical to see if it is sustainable, 129 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 4: because of course, when the policies relaxed, of course it's 130 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 4: reasonable for those who have been wanting to purchase that 131 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 4: there is a short term improvement, but afterwards we need 132 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 4: to see the microeconomic situation like where the house, the income, 133 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 4: the confidence are improvement, which I think is really the 134 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 4: situation for China right now because the job and income 135 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 4: expectations are still pretty pretty poor and the prices are 136 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 4: still correcting. So I would think that even though some 137 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 4: of the top tier cities they could be removing the 138 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 4: relaxation restriction, yeah, the pressures restrictions, we could see some 139 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 4: short term rebound that maybe at the same afterwards, we 140 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 4: really need to focus back on the fundamentals and see 141 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 4: if this is sustainable, and I think I'm still skeptical 142 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 4: of whether it is. It is going to work, and 143 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 4: I think there's still going to be some downward pressure 144 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 4: for the prices to correct and the top city system 145 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 4: that they're still pretty over valued. 146 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 2: So very quickly and Michelle about twenty seconds, what's the 147 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 2: next move on the part of the PBOC. 148 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 5: For April. 149 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 4: I don't expect them to do much because we've seen 150 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 4: some improvement in the marsh pm I and I think 151 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 4: for the first quarter GDP is going to be the 152 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 4: pretty pretty decent as well. The next move going to 153 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 4: be just wash the PSL if they are ramping up 154 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 4: that to support the urban ridge the b development. 155 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, well thanks for how much for joining us, Michelle, 156 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 3: Very good stuff there, Michelle Lamb, Greater China economist at 157 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 3: Associate General. 158 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 2: Well, the Japanese government has approved up to three point 159 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 2: nine billion dollars in subsidies to the Chip Venture Rapidness Corporation. 160 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 2: This is a nineteen month old startup. It's amy to 161 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: compete with companies like TSMC and Samsung in the market 162 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 2: for contact chip making. Let's take a closer look now 163 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg's Peter Elstrom. He is our executive editor for 164 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 2: Asia Technology and he joins us from Tokyo. Peters, it's 165 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 2: always a pleasure. Can you help me understand what's going 166 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: on here? 167 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 5: Now? 168 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 2: We've been talking about trying to lessen the reliance on 169 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 2: chip manufacturing and Taiwan. I get that. And it's kind 170 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 2: of curious because quite a number of years ago Japan 171 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 2: did quite a bit when it came to the manufacturing 172 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: of sem conductors. 173 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: What's going on right, right, it was not that long 174 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: ago that the US was very concerned about the rising 175 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: power of Japan and semiconductors. We've come a long way 176 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: since then. Right now we have advanced semiconductor manufacturing concentrated 177 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: in just a couple of locations. Taiwan is by far 178 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: the most important. South Korea is also very very important 179 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: because of the COVID pandemic disruptions to the supply chain, 180 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: because of some concerns over China's claims to Taiwan, We've 181 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: now seen many countries push ahead with trying to build 182 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 1: up their domestic capabilities in the semiconductor industry. The US, 183 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 1: of course, is doing that. They've got the chipsack where 184 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: they're allocating tens of billions of dollars to chip companies, 185 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: and here in Japan they've been very very aggressive too. 186 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: They do have that foundation from a few decades ago 187 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 1: where they were one of the most advanced countries in 188 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: terms of chip making, and they're trying to rebuild some 189 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: of those capabilities in a number of different areas. They 190 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 1: are giving money to TSM, see the Taiwanese chip company 191 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: that leads the way in what are known as logic 192 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: chips in this case with rapidest. This is as you mentioned, 193 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: it's a brand new venture. It's a domestic company that's 194 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: backed by the government, and their goal is to build 195 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: an advanced semiconductor fabrication facility up on the northern island 196 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: of Hokkaido to produce custom made chips contract. It's contract manufacturing, 197 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: so you specifically devise chips for customers to their designs. 198 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: This is what TMC now does for customers like Apple 199 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: and Nvidia and rapid ESC's case, they'd like some of 200 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: those contracts also in say artificial intelligence. They also want 201 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: to make sure that they're able to make those kinds 202 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: of advanced chips for domestic companies like Toyota and the 203 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: rest of the automotive industry, which is a real foundation 204 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: of the economy here. 205 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, you sort of phased into what was going to 206 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 3: be my first question about whether or not this was 207 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 3: more support for RAPIDUS or actually just in establishing japan 208 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: com on that because they've offered billions to TSMC and 209 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 3: I think Micron as well. Right, so let's talk a 210 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 3: little bit about this specific company young as it is. 211 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 3: It's teaming up with researchers at IBM on exactly what right. 212 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, so they are using some technology from IBM. They've 213 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: also had engineers go out to the state of New 214 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: York to do training with IBM to try to be 215 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: able to build advanced semiconductors that will be two to 216 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: three nanometers at the cutting edge of chip making today, 217 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: probably won't quite be at the cutting edge when they 218 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: plan to come online. They've got a long ways to 219 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: go here. Just to lay out some of the enormous 220 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: challenges ahead for the company right now, TSMC leads this 221 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: market and being able to make three nanometer chips for 222 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 1: things like the iPhone, and Samsung has been trying to 223 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: compete in that business with TSM, and it has been struggling. Frankly, 224 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: they haven't been able to get customers at the kind 225 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: of rate that they expected. They haven't been able to 226 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: build up their foundry business very successfully. So Rapidess, again, 227 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: a company that only was formed a couple of years 228 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 1: ago and does not have that track record of being 229 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: able to manufacture chips successfully, is targeting and advanced advanced 230 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 1: technologies to be able to build cutting edge chips, and 231 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:24,439 Speaker 1: it's not at all clear that they're going to be 232 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: able to fine tune the manufacturing processes to be able 233 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: to compete with leaders like DSMC. 234 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: Well, they rely on equipment manufactured by ASML, it's a. 235 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: Very good question. The reason that Rapidess has gained so 236 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: much support internally here in Japan is because they have 237 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: a lot of domestic expertise within the country and within 238 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:55,119 Speaker 1: the staff. They're being led by an executive from Tokyo Electron, 239 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 1: which makes chip making equipment, and Japan is actually very 240 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: very critical at and phases of the semiconductor supply chain, 241 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: including in what's known as photo resists many of the 242 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: chemicals and materials that go into the chip making supply chain. ASML, 243 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: of course makes the most advanced chip making equipment out there. 244 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: It makes its highest m machines are EUV machines, which 245 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: help make three nanometer in the future two nanimeter technology 246 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: for customers like Nvidia and Apple in Tokyo Electronics a 247 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: little bit behind that, but Rapidus plans on leaning on 248 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: all of those customers to be able to make these 249 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: advanced chips. 250 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 3: So I guess going back to the original question about 251 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: Japan doing this not just to support Rapidness, but to 252 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 3: try to establish its own credentials as a place to 253 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 3: make fabs and to advance and move forward in semiconductor manufacturing. 254 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 3: Where is it on that along that road in that process. 255 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a very good question, and it's an interesting 256 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: time where we have governments becoming much more active industrial planning. 257 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: In past years, of course, the United States and Japan 258 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: sort of the government entities backed out of the market 259 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: and let private corporations really lead the way. That's in 260 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: contrast to say, Taiwan and South Korea in particular, where 261 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: the governments have been quite successful and helping to support 262 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: some of these local providers. In Japan, they of course 263 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: had a long history of a very active government hand 264 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: in all sorts of sectors, including semiconductors. At this point, 265 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: they are trying to rebuild some of the capabilities that 266 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: they had in the past. Right now, they don't have 267 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: a leading edge logic chip manufacturer like a TSMC, for example, 268 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: or an Intel in the US. Even they do have 269 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: players in the memory chip market, notably Kyoshow, which competes 270 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: with Samsung in memory chips and heinis and memory chips, 271 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: but they're not at the cutting edge anymore. So they 272 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: have quite a bit of ground to make up. As 273 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: you alluded to earlier, they are helping to subsidize Micron, 274 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: another memory chip maker, an American memory chip maker that 275 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 1: is building out a fab here, but they have some 276 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 1: ground to make up, both on the memory chip side 277 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: and on the logic chip side of the industry. 278 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff, good conversation. Thank you so much, Peter. Peter Elstrom, 279 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Executive Editor for Asia Technology, helping us understand the 280 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 2: investment being made by the Japanese government in the way 281 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 2: of subsidies for this new chip venture Rapidness Corporation. David 282 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 2: Finnerdy is with us. David is Bloomberg FX and rate 283 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 2: Strategisty joins us from our studios in Singapore. A lot 284 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 2: of ground to cover here, David. Let's begin with this 285 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: HM number that we had for the US. In terms 286 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 2: of the PMI data, we're seeing expansion on the manufacturing 287 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 2: side for the first time since twenty twenty two. And 288 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 2: the report, maybe a little concerning to the FED, is 289 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 2: that the cost of materials and other outputs increased a bit. 290 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 2: Do you think it's enough to really change the calculus 291 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 2: when we talk about the FED cutting interest rates? Should 292 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: we be looking at not three, but maybe two or 293 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 2: maybe even one? 294 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 6: I think definitely, well, certainly I think this step by step. 295 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 6: I think two is definitely a possibility. I think there's 296 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 6: no question about that. You know, how it plays up 297 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 6: between two and three I think obviously depends how data 298 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 6: comes out. I think arguably more certainly the is and 299 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 6: manufacturing is important, but really it's the services economy. So 300 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 6: I think the services data that comes out I think 301 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 6: it's on Wednesday will arguely more important, and obviously the 302 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 6: payroll data as well, so let's see how those come out. 303 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 6: But having said that, the predictions of that will come 304 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 6: out quite solid. Payrolls about two hundred, the service and 305 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 6: manufacturing about fifty two point eight, so certainly solid data 306 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 6: which backs up this idea. As as fed Chepal said 307 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 6: that we're in no hurry to cut, not that they 308 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 6: won't cut, but there are no hurry to cut, and 309 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 6: beg the question, if you keep getting this solid data, 310 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 6: how many more cuts do you need this year? So 311 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 6: the market has actually down its pricing to think sixty 312 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,959 Speaker 6: five basis points at the moment, and I think if 313 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 6: the data stays strong, you could certainly make a good 314 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 6: case say, look, actually only two rate cuts it's needed 315 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 6: this year. If it continue strong, then it gets to 316 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 6: your further point of is actually just one needed, and 317 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 6: I don't think that could be written off at the moment, 318 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 6: but certainly for the moment, I think we'll go for 319 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 6: two to three is the most probable. 320 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 3: In your view. Is the FAED kind of fudging the 321 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 3: two percent target at the moment. 322 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,439 Speaker 6: I don't think so. Look it's saying it wants two percent. 323 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 6: It says that it's going to go be forty percent, 324 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 6: which makes sense. I mean, you want the trend going 325 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 6: down there. And I think the fact that you could 326 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 6: look at that dot plot it was very fifty to fifty. 327 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 6: I mean you had I think ten people going for 328 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 6: three or more cuts and you're nine going for two 329 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 6: or less cut. So I think the FED saying, look, 330 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 6: we'll do what we need to do to get it 331 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 6: down there, and if we need to cut less to 332 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 6: get that target done, we will. So I don't think 333 00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 6: it's it's fudging this at the moment. 334 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: So we had a little bit of an upswing in 335 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 2: China's economy at least if you look at the official 336 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: PMI data for the month of March released over the weekend, 337 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 2: the numbers coming in above estimates, What does it say 338 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:12,880 Speaker 2: to you about how well China is doing? 339 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 6: I think look, it's certainly a positive I think you know, 340 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 6: when you factory in you know, lunar year and all 341 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 6: this sort of effects around that, you want, you know, 342 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,959 Speaker 6: one piece of data doesn't make a trend. Shall we say, well, 343 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 6: suddenly it's positive. I think you obviously want a few 344 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 6: more pieces of data to support that and corroborate that 345 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 6: idea that it's rebounding the coast for China. So even 346 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 6: if it's rebounding, it's slowing. It was just in you know, 347 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 6: over fifty it wasn't like fifty three or fifty four 348 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 6: where strong growth. So has it kind of potentially plateaued 349 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 6: in terms of weakness? You go yes, But it doesn't 350 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 6: all go well that it's like really, you know, churning 351 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 6: a head on a very strong footing, certainly not the 352 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,959 Speaker 6: same footing that the US economy appears to be on. 353 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, well we had good export data too, so the 354 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 3: manufacturing and the export data kind of go together. But 355 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 3: it suggests that the economy is a little bifurcated. Consumer 356 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 3: activity is still not quite up to snuff. Whereas you know, 357 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 3: you're getting this little bit of pickup on the industrial side. 358 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 3: You have a lot of people calling for and the 359 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 3: reason they say that consumers are not spending is because 360 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 3: the housing market isn't fixed. So how do you fix 361 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 3: the housing market without taking on more debt? Some people 362 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 3: think debt isn't even bigger problem when you look at that. 363 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 3: I mean, this is all sort of big picture stuff. 364 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 3: How do you separate the big picture from you know, 365 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 3: the short term. 366 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 6: I think it is tricky. I mean, I mean it 367 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 6: makes good points. I think because some parts economy performing 368 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 6: better than the others, and you said the consumers saying 369 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 6: lagging a bit compared to other parts. So it is 370 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 6: tricky to eventuate the two, particularly because the market when 371 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 6: he does look at a macro picture, and at the 372 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 6: end of the day, it's you know, how's the big 373 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 6: picture doing. You can't just focus on one specific bit 374 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 6: because there's always going to be something that doesn't perform 375 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 6: how as well as you like it too, So I 376 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 6: think you have to look at the big picture. Having 377 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:01,159 Speaker 6: said that, the property is always something that's worrying. Trend 378 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 6: and well, it seems to have improved over the last 379 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 6: few months, should we say from the everground and other companies, Yeah, 380 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 6: those obviously could resurface. I think they do reservice, particularly 381 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 6: consumers being a bit sluggish. That wouldn't bode well for 382 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 6: consumer sentiment. You'd have to guess which could see another 383 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 6: downturn in the Chinese economy. So I think the market 384 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 6: would definitely like the property sector to be improving more quickly, 385 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 6: should we say. 386 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: So if you look at a potential policy response. Brian 387 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 2: was talking earlier about something he read where maybe you 388 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 2: have the central bank using its balance sheet in a 389 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 2: way that would resemble quantitative easing. I know when we've 390 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 2: talked about this in the past that the people who 391 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,199 Speaker 2: are really close watchers of the Central Bank say no 392 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 2: way that China would ever do that. But are we 393 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 2: getting closer to some type of creative exercise here on 394 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 2: the part of the PBOC. 395 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,959 Speaker 6: Well, I think the market always wants to interpret anything 396 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 6: positively that it can if I'm on it, So you 397 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 6: can't and unfortunately a bit of a black box and 398 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 6: we don't know exactly for sure what it's going to do. 399 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 6: So the recent wording has potentially been interpreted that way, 400 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 6: and you could go look at one. They've had different 401 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 6: measures to come out to support the economy. So I 402 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 6: don't think you can never say never I think that 403 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,719 Speaker 6: would always be mistakes. They never say never, and are 404 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 6: we heading in that way slowly potentially, But I don't 405 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 6: think it's something that's going to happen overnight. And I 406 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 6: think that's the best way to put it. 407 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, we've got the Bank of Japan's story as well, 408 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 3: possible intervention looming with the end continuing the week and 409 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 3: dolly en one fifty one sixty four people talk about 410 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 3: one fifty two maybe as a line. The authorities said 411 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,679 Speaker 3: they generally don't try to drive the end in a 412 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 3: certain direction, maybe just to send some warning signals. What 413 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 3: are you expecting there? 414 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 6: Well, I think what was so interesting is I think 415 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 6: with Susuki came out today in the Finance Minister and 416 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 6: we're saying we're looking for excessive moves. Dolly End's gone nowhere, 417 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 6: I mean really over the last few days. It's just 418 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 6: it's one fifty two range. So you know, I think 419 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 6: they're obviously very worried that they keep banging this over 420 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 6: when it's not even really moving. So I think the 421 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 6: next port of call I want to be seen to 422 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 6: rate check come out soon. I think one fits to 423 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 6: his key because if it does go, it will trigger 424 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 6: some barriers to be triggered with in options. Okay, you 425 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 6: see some short covering, so may asascerbate. 426 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 2: One five to two. That's the number from David Finnerty 427 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 2: in Dollar Yen. David Finnerty from Singapore. Here on Daybreak Asia. 428 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. 429 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the 430 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 3: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 431 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 432 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 3: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 433 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 3: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 434 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 3: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 435 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business App.