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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're up for running a game?

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet slid six sing just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with find.

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying the wove.

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Speaker 1: It's left to of the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drill fibus how old earth.

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergold, the

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Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. I am your

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Speaker 1: host BJ Cunningham. Michael leeboffas out for an episode in

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Speaker 1: a second I'll be joined by my co host and friend,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Dbundo. But first, wonder Goal is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up

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Speaker 1: exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet

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Speaker 1: one dollar on any game and get two hundred free.

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Speaker 1: And you may want to use that one dollar on

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Speaker 1: one of these two headliners. In the Premier League. We

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Speaker 1: have two fantastic matches, but it felt only right to

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Speaker 1: start with the Dubundo Darby. Tottenham hosting Liverpool Sunday eleven

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Speaker 1: thirty m Eastern time. Tottenham is a plus two to

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Speaker 1: twenty five home underdog, Liverpool a plus one ten road favorite,

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Speaker 1: with the draw sitting at plus two to sixty. Tottenham

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Speaker 1: obviously coming off a late winner in the Champions League

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Speaker 1: to win their Champions League group against Marseille in the

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Speaker 1: ninety fifth minute. Liverpool coming off a pretty impressive performance

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Speaker 1: against Napoli, also in their Champions League. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the last time Liverpool was out in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: they were losing the Jesse Marsh's leads to one at

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Speaker 1: home Todham obviously coming off of heroic, you know, a

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Speaker 1: two gold deficit against Bournemouth on the road. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: that Tottenham is sitting as a home underdog here. Obviously

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Speaker 1: some injuries have taken into account for that, but I'm

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Speaker 1: curious to get your thoughts on this, Anthony, because it

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Speaker 1: seems a little weird with all the problems that Liverpool's

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Speaker 1: had this season to have them as a plus one

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Speaker 1: ten road favorite at another Big Six club.

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Speaker 4: I generally agree, you know, I think I think Liverpool

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Speaker 4: is a bit inflated here for sure. But that's also

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Speaker 4: coming off the back of the Son news, right, So

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Speaker 4: so he's not going to play in this match on Sunday.

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Speaker 4: That's a big problem for Tottenham because now they're out

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Speaker 4: soon for Charleston and Kuwasevski, and the backup options are

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Speaker 4: Lucas Mora, who's barely played this season, has not looked

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Speaker 4: good when he's played, produced next to nothing in his

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Speaker 4: minutes this season. Brian Heel I guess maybe is the

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Speaker 4: next option? Not inspired there either, So you're looking around

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Speaker 4: and you're thinking who is going to take the shots

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Speaker 4: and produce for Spurs. It's kind of just Harry Kane

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Speaker 4: or bust. And let's talk about tottenham stet piece reliance,

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Speaker 4: because they been extremely reliant on set pieces to create

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Speaker 4: all of their chances for the last two weeks now.

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Speaker 4: Two goals against Bournemouth coming from set pieces, the tying

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Speaker 4: goal against Marseille coming off of a set piece, the

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Speaker 4: equalizer against Sporting coming off of a set piece. So

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Speaker 4: this team's been great on set pieces, there's no doubt

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Speaker 4: about that. But they have not created much otherwise, and

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Speaker 4: I just wonder how many set piece chances they're really

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Speaker 4: going to get in this match against Liverpool, given how

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Speaker 4: much we know Liverpool likes to control possession, Given how

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Speaker 4: well Liverpool has played at times this season when teams

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Speaker 4: aren't pressing them, when teams aren't willing to press high

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Speaker 4: and try to win the ball off Liverpool and force

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Speaker 4: them into a.

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Speaker 3: High pressing match. I don't think Totam's going to do that.

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Speaker 4: I think Tottenham is going to look to sit a

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Speaker 4: little bit deeper because of the injuries. I question whether

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Speaker 4: Liverpool has the ability to break down.

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Speaker 3: This Spurs defense.

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Speaker 4: Though we don't know if Christian Romero will be back,

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Speaker 4: Spurs did an excellent job defensively when these two teams

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Speaker 4: met in the spring of defending in the penalty area.

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Speaker 3: They will be at home.

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Speaker 4: Liverpool's attack has been out a half goal worse away

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Speaker 4: from home this season that it's been at home, So

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Speaker 4: give me the under I grabbed the three if you

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Speaker 4: found them the app you know I grabbed the three

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Speaker 4: as soon as it came out.

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Speaker 3: I still like it.

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Speaker 4: Now it's moved a little bit because of the sown

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Speaker 4: news again with Spurs attack looking a bit more feeble,

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Speaker 4: but I still like the under in this match.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's no surprise that I love Tom.

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Speaker 1: I'm in this match. You know, I'm going to wait

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Speaker 1: on the market and try and see if they can

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Speaker 1: get him plus half goal at minus one thirty or better.

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Speaker 1: But you know the thing with Liverpool, and I think

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Speaker 1: that the reason why you're starting to see is them

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Speaker 1: aggress You know, against Leeds they had nine defensive mistakes

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Speaker 1: defined by OPTA. Four of them came by way of

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Speaker 1: Joe Gomez. Now Konate is back, so I'm sure he'll

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Speaker 1: slot in next to Virgil van Dyck. But the biggest

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Speaker 1: thing with Liverpool is their press just does not have

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Speaker 1: the intensity that it's had in years past. So if

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Speaker 1: you're looking at it this season, their pass per defensive

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Speaker 1: action is eleven point five. Last season it was nine

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Speaker 1: point nine. Last season they averaged eleven point six high

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Speaker 1: turnovers per ninety this season that's nine point three. I

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Speaker 1: know it's only a slight slight difference, but those two

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Speaker 1: or three other chances where teams are able to progress

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Speaker 1: the ball up the pitch, and like we've already mentioned,

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Speaker 1: they look old. They look a lot slower than they

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Speaker 1: have in the past. Plus you also add in that

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Speaker 1: Luis Dias and Diego Jolta are both out. The attacking

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Speaker 1: options are not that great. I mean, they're obviously great,

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Speaker 1: you know, with Mosala and Darwin Nuniez. But do you

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Speaker 1: know who Liverpool's leading goal scorer is this season, Anthony Bobby.

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Speaker 1: Bobby for me is six goals in the Premier like

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Speaker 1: leads Liverpool, which is kind of crazy. So yeah, like

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Speaker 1: you said, yeah, I mean, like you said, Todham's going

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Speaker 1: to sit deep in their low block, which they've done

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Speaker 1: an incredibly good job of this season. Like you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're going to sit in a low block, you

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Speaker 1: have to defend your penalty area well. And Tottenham's allowed

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Speaker 1: the second fewest big scoring chances. You know, they don't

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Speaker 1: allow a lot of box entries, so they are good

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Speaker 1: at that defensively. And I just really question Liverpool is

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Speaker 1: a plus one ten road favorite. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: this is coming off of their match against Napoli where

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Speaker 1: Napolei they just needed to draw essentially to get through.

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Speaker 1: They're obviously very impressive in that match, but in plus

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Speaker 1: one ten is a little steep here for Liverpool, and

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Speaker 1: I even have Liverpool as a favorite here, Anthony, like

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Speaker 1: I have Liverpool at plus one forty eight, like I

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Speaker 1: have them projected as a favorite. So I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: taking Tottenham. I'm gonna wait on the market though, because

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Speaker 1: as we've seen in the past is that Tottenham does

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Speaker 1: not get much love in the market and Liverpool tends

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Speaker 1: to get some love. You saw them get stemed pretty

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Speaker 1: hard against Leeds over their last match. So I'll be

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Speaker 1: on Tottenham, but I'm gonna wait on the market because

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Speaker 1: I think I can get plus half a goal at

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Speaker 1: minus one thirty or better. All right, let's move on

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Speaker 1: to a London derby, Chelsea hosting Arsenal Sunday, early early

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Speaker 1: morning at seven am Eastern Time. Chelsea sitting at a

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Speaker 1: plus one fifty home favorite, Arsenal sitting at plus one eighty,

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Speaker 1: with the draw sitting at plus two forty. Chelsea obviously

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Speaker 1: has not looked that great over the past few weeks.

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Speaker 1: Obviously there's been scheduled congestion, They've played a ton of

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Speaker 1: matches over the past month, but it all kind of culminated.

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Speaker 1: We were talking about this a lot on the podcast

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Speaker 1: that they were overdue for one, not would say one

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Speaker 1: bad result, but overdue to concede some goals and also

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Speaker 1: essentially overdue. They were overforming offensively and it all came

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Speaker 1: at the MX with Brighton getting our boys getting a

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Speaker 1: famous for to one win. They completely dominated the match.

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Speaker 1: It was a great performance, but I mean it just

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Speaker 1: culminated what we've seen since Potter has taken over Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: We thought it was going to be a great hire

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Speaker 1: in that, you know, Chelsea was going to be springboarded towards,

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Speaker 1: you know, back towards you know, the Premier League title race.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea's sitting with a negative expected goal Diffrench will right

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Speaker 1: now on the season like that is concerning you know

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Speaker 1: over there last since Potters took over in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: they've scored nine times off of seven point one expected

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Speaker 1: and they've conceded five goals off of seven point two expected.

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Speaker 1: In last four matches. They've lost the expected goals battle

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Speaker 1: to Aston Villa, Brentford United and obviously Brighton last Saturday.

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Speaker 1: So I actually will be on my gunners on Sunday

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Speaker 1: for the first time, which seems like in a long time,

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Speaker 1: because I do have them projected as a slight road

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Speaker 1: favorite at Stanford Bridge, because what I don't think people

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Speaker 1: are talking about enough with Chelsea. They're struggling with the

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Speaker 1: final third possession turning that into some type of goal

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Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. They don't have an out and out striker

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Speaker 1: since Lukaku left then you know, obviously Timo Werner left,

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Speaker 1: Arbi Leipsig, so it's been Hevert's up top or some

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Speaker 1: or you know, Kerry mcbama hung is getting up there

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Speaker 1: in age, so he hasn't really produced that much. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Chelsea their top six in expected threat box entries like

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Speaker 1: progressive passes and dribbles, like they're able to get the

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Speaker 1: ball off the pitch, but they're tenth in expected goals

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Speaker 1: because they've created the seventh fewest big scoring chances. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're only averaging one point two expected goals per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: Like this is not really that good of an offense.

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Speaker 1: And obviously the Arsenal defense has been incredible. They have

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Speaker 1: obviously got back to their winning ways against Nottingham Forrest

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, you know, five to zero drubbing, really dominant performance.

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Speaker 1: They're only allowing points seven to seven non penalty expected

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Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes, only a lot five big scoring

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Speaker 1: chances in the entirety of the Premier League season, so

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Speaker 1: I think this is a great spot here for Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Like Arsenal is also one of the most efficient set

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Speaker 1: piece teams in the Premier League, like their second and

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Speaker 1: next cheaper set piece, Chelsea is near the bottom in

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Speaker 1: terms of defending set pieces, and Chelsea injuries are starting

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Speaker 1: to mount, like obviously for Fauna and Rhys, James and

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Speaker 1: conteer out. But I can't believe were saying this, but

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Speaker 1: Kepa's out so that's kind of concerning the given the

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Speaker 1: way he's been playing in net. And then Kobacis is

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Speaker 1: also questionable. So Chelsea's very very thin in the midfield.

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Speaker 1: So I actually think there is some value on Arsenal.

200
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Speaker 1: So I'll be on the gunners drohn o Bett at

201
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Speaker 1: minus one o five. So what are you thinking here

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Speaker 1: for this London Derby?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I generally agree it would be Arsenal nothing for

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Speaker 4: me if I had to play a side here, but

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Speaker 4: I don't really have that much interested in playing aside.

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Speaker 4: Arsenal have been pretty lucky away from home this season.

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Speaker 4: You look at their numbers they are about even an

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Speaker 4: expected gold differential away from the Emirates, and it's been

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Speaker 4: a long standing trend. You know. I faded Arsenal on

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Speaker 4: the road their last couple matches, and I'm really not

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Speaker 4: as high on them away from the Emirates as they've

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Speaker 4: been dominant at home. I mean, they are plus one

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Speaker 4: point seventy seven extra difference per ninety at home.

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Speaker 3: We saw that in the.

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Speaker 4: Drubbing against Forrest, complete domination in that match. But away

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Speaker 4: from home they just have not been the same team

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Speaker 4: and teams who press we saw Southampton defensive press was

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Speaker 4: that Leeds as press really bothered Arsenal, and when they've

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Speaker 4: gone on the road they haven't fared that well against teams.

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Speaker 1: Who will press.

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Speaker 4: Since Chelsea's still second passes for defensive action, no Conte

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Speaker 4: potentially no COVID chic definitely hurts. But Gallagher's a capable

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Speaker 4: pressure presser, even if I don't love him as a passer,

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Speaker 4: though he did have a beautiful ball over the weekend.

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Speaker 3: For the goal. That being said, I like the I

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Speaker 3: lean to the under here as well.

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Speaker 4: For the reasons I just mentioned, Arsenal's attack has not

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Speaker 4: been nearly as good away from home, they've only produced

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Speaker 4: about six expected goals in six away matches, and that

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Speaker 4: has translated to the Europa League. They went to Bodo,

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Speaker 4: they went to PSV, the attack was not nearly as

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Speaker 4: good as it was when they played their home matches

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Speaker 4: against those two teams. So I think this is a

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Speaker 4: little bit of an interesting underlying trend we're seeing, maybe

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Speaker 4: you know, Void fading Arsenal at home or they've been

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Speaker 4: perfect this season and look to play against them on

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Speaker 4: the road, and I think that's this is an interesting.

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Speaker 3: Spot for that Chelsea's attack continues to not be right.

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Speaker 3: I think you're right there.

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Speaker 4: I think Arsenal's defense is fine on the road. I

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Speaker 4: think it's more the attack that struggles a little bit

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Speaker 4: to consistently create chances and overwhelm opponents and keep the

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Speaker 4: ball pressure up so they have the ball enough to

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Speaker 4: do damage.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I's an degree. I mean that's been the thing

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Speaker 1: under our teta for a long time, is that Arsenals

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Speaker 1: just as they've been poured away from home and they've

248
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Speaker 1: just been really good at them rets. So let's move

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Speaker 1: on to the Saturday at eleven am Eastern time. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with Jesse Marsh's boys Leads hosting Born a win,

251
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Speaker 1: by the way, what a historic win for Jesse Marsh

252
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Speaker 1: to save his job. Leads is sitting at minus one

253
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Speaker 1: thirty eight, Bournemouth at plus three seventy five, with the

254
00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 1: draw sitting at plus two eighty these odds obviously coming

255
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Speaker 1: from our friends at bet three sixty five. I'm interring

256
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Speaker 1: to get your thoughts because seeing Leads at as this

257
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Speaker 1: steep of a favorite, Obviously they've underperformed quite a bit,

258
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Speaker 1: you know, with the matches leading up to that Liverpool once,

259
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Speaker 1: so it was kind of just a culmination of what

260
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Speaker 1: they were doe for. But are you laying Leads at

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Speaker 1: this big of a number when they have to go

262
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Speaker 1: essentially break down a low block for all ninety minutes.

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Speaker 3: No, I am not.

264
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Speaker 4: It is a little bit too steep for me to play.

265
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Speaker 4: If it got down to about minus one twenty, I

266
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Speaker 4: would hop in on Leads.

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Speaker 3: On the money line.

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Speaker 4: They just have a way of making games very frenetic

269
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Speaker 4: and Bournemuth could pick them off for a chance or

270
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Speaker 4: two on the counter and that is scary for a

271
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Speaker 4: Leads attack that has been good but has not been

272
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Speaker 4: you know, dominant. They have and they've controlled games with

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Speaker 4: their press, but they have not controlled them to the

274
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Speaker 4: point where teams are not also able to get good

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Speaker 4: chances off of them. Right, They're still conceding some big

276
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Speaker 4: scoring chances. They're not finishing. I mean Bamford again and

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Speaker 4: in the game against Liverpool, you know, struggling with the

278
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Speaker 4: finishing leads could have had another goal there and probably

279
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Speaker 4: should have and couldn't quite get the finish down. They

280
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Speaker 4: get gifted the goal in the fourth minute they really

281
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,480
Speaker 4: could have scored end of the first half, and then

282
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Speaker 4: of course Somerville scores the late stunning finish in the

283
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,120
Speaker 4: end of the corner to win it leads from a

284
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Speaker 4: progression point of view, you know, we talk about regressing

285
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Speaker 4: to means and Bournemouth continues to outrun it. They finally

286
00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:59,480
Speaker 4: fell apart and collapsed against Spurs, So you know, from

287
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Speaker 4: a's or nothing. But I'm not laying minus one thirty

288
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,040
Speaker 4: eight and I would need a better number to play

289
00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:06,840
Speaker 4: them here. Not a ton else on this match, just

290
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Speaker 4: that Leeds have been considerably better at home traditionally hasn't

291
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,400
Speaker 4: necessarily held up this season, but they their press tends

292
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Speaker 4: to be much more effective on home soil Boorn myth continues.

293
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Speaker 3: I mean, now they're they're.

294
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Speaker 4: Two more goals off of half of an expected Last

295
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,800
Speaker 4: week was something that's the fourth. You know, they're really

296
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 4: you know, when every counter comes off, it really looks beautiful.

297
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,319
Speaker 3: You know, every time you get a two on one,

298
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 3: you make.

299
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 4: The perfect pass and the guy puts the shot in

300
00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 4: the corner, Like that's awesome to watch and you're like, wow,

301
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,280
Speaker 4: what a great accounter. Attacking team, a majority of the

302
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Speaker 4: time something goes wrong in the chain and you don't

303
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Speaker 4: get the goal right, and that's really what's kind of

304
00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 4: fueling Born with here. The luck will run out and

305
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Speaker 4: they will be relegated, right, Yeah, it's you look at

306
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 4: the markets too. They're still like odds on to be relegated.

307
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:51,000
Speaker 4: So the market knows they suck.

308
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Speaker 1: Yeah, market knows. I mean they've what, they've created over

309
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Speaker 1: one expected goal in one match this season and it

310
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Speaker 1: was against Southampton and they didn't score. I mean they've

311
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Speaker 1: they've scored over two goals and four matches, and all

312
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Speaker 1: four of those matches they have failed to create over

313
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Speaker 1: one expected goal. So, like you said, they're just capitalizing

314
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Speaker 1: on their counter attacking opportunities, like you saw it against Tottenham.

315
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Speaker 1: Two major chances they got they put away and that

316
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Speaker 1: was about it.

317
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Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to a wonderfully wonderful match

318
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Speaker 2: at the at the had at eleven am Eastern Time

319
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Speaker 2: on Saturday, Manchester City hosting Fulham City is a minus

320
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Speaker 2: eight hundred favorite.

321
00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:28,760
Speaker 1: Fulham sitting at sixteen to one on the money line,

322
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,600
Speaker 1: with a draw sitting at plus eight point fifty. I

323
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:33,720
Speaker 1: have a bet that I usually go to in this,

324
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Speaker 1: but first I'll get your thoughts on this wonderful match

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Speaker 1: part of the Saturday eleven am Eastern time window.

326
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the big question is is the status

327
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Speaker 4: of Early Holland didn't play. You know, we knew he

328
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Speaker 4: wasn't going to play against Savilla. We figured he wasn't

329
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,480
Speaker 4: going to play against Leicester. They didn't look great on

330
00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 4: the road in that match. They didn't create a ton

331
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Speaker 4: of chances. And it's fifty to fifty whether he's going

332
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 4: to play for Fulham. But I can't imagine they're going

333
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 4: to start him and rush him.

334
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 3: And there's not really like a reason.

335
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:07,320
Speaker 4: Now, granted he's not in the World Cup, so that's

336
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 4: not really a consideration here, but it's a whole match

337
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 4: against Fulham.

338
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Speaker 3: City can win this with or without him, and so

339
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:14,360
Speaker 3: I think we're.

340
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:18,680
Speaker 4: Going to see what happens with the line here if

341
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,480
Speaker 4: Holland is out, whether it crashes or not.

342
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:22,800
Speaker 3: I think it's very hard to bet Fulham in any

343
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 3: way at this number.

344
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 4: Because they continue to also be a team who struggles

345
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,760
Speaker 4: defensively and won't have any of the ball in this match.

346
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,320
Speaker 4: And you know they can pull off maybe like a

347
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 4: direct counter and get a steel goal, but it's hard

348
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 4: to imagine. And they're a little bit like I thought

349
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,960
Speaker 4: i'd get a better number on Fulham to score, right,

350
00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:39,680
Speaker 4: they do think City can be vulnerable, but the number

351
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 4: is not even good. You know, I have to lay

352
00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 4: juice here.

353
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:42,800
Speaker 3: So I'm not.

354
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 4: Interested in a both teams to score or a Fulham

355
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,640
Speaker 4: the score, because there's really not an angle or a

356
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 4: number at least that's worth it.

357
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm going back to both teams to score. No,

358
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,640
Speaker 1: my City. What I typically do is City here. Yeah,

359
00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,360
Speaker 1: you're looking at City schedule. Imagined they would rest Holland

360
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 1: here because they I mean not to say that they

361
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 1: really care about the Carabell Cup, but you know they

362
00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 1: are playing Chelsea, so if anything, I think Pep would

363
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 1: want to rest Holland and play them in that type

364
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:13,960
Speaker 1: of match because you know, I mean obviously you know

365
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,440
Speaker 1: Treble's matter to City and all these other big teams.

366
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,720
Speaker 4: He talked about the Carabo as like a reason to

367
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 4: have him back for so I think like if they

368
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 4: may just play Holland in the Carabo.

369
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 1: Right, I mean might that just might be what it is,

370
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 1: you know. And the thing is is like, yeah, today

371
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 1: they kind of slept walk for a while against Sylvia

372
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 1: in a completely meaningless match, kind of turned it on,

373
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 1: you know, and won at three to one. But they,

374
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,720
Speaker 1: like you said, that Lester match, they completely that was

375
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: a sleepwalk City, you know, if it wasn't for the

376
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 1: you know, de Bruyna like stunning free kick. I mean,

377
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,120
Speaker 1: City created one expected goal for the entire match against

378
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 1: Lester's defense. Like they've created one. They created one point

379
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,240
Speaker 1: two non penalty against Brighton, one point two against Dortmun

380
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 1: and point nine against Liverpool in their last few matches.

381
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 1: Like the offense really hasn't been there to what we expect,

382
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 1: and I mean Fulham offensively, Like yeah, they've scored a

383
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: couple times against Big six teams, but They've played Arsenal,

384
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: Liverpool and Tottenham, and in those three matches, if you

385
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 1: remove penalties, like they've only created two expected goals, they're

386
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,080
Speaker 1: only averaging about eight shots and they only have and

387
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 1: are averaging thirteen touches in those opponents penalty are so

388
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 1: they're really going to have to capitalize on the one

389
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,479
Speaker 1: or two opportunities. The Majrivich is capable of doing that.

390
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 1: But the reality is is, like you said, City's going

391
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,879
Speaker 1: to control seventy percent possession, They're just going to play slow, intricate.

392
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 1: They're going to hold the ball on Fulham's final third

393
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 1: and I really just don't think Fulham is going to

394
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 1: sniff City's net at all. And the biggest thing is

395
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 1: I was looking at it. I get this question sometimes

396
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,360
Speaker 1: because people tend to ask me like, hey, why don't

397
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 1: you just bet like City to wind nil instead of

398
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 1: both teams of score no. Well in this type of

399
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 1: scenario and this guy, I think this is kind of

400
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,200
Speaker 1: an interesting exercise that I think our listeners actually might

401
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 1: find interesting and if not, well you can just tweet

402
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,440
Speaker 1: at me and say I'm an idiot. But City to

403
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:48,400
Speaker 1: wind Noll is sitting at minus one ten both teams

404
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,320
Speaker 1: to score no is minus one twenty, So the difference

405
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 1: between those from percentage wise just a little over two percent.

406
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 1: So if you look at not even I won't even

407
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: do my projections, But if you look at the odds

408
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 1: of Fulham to wind nil and the odds of a

409
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 1: three of zero zero draw Phone to win Nills thirty

410
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:02,959
Speaker 1: three to one zero, Joe draws twenty five to one.

411
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 1: So if you put those two percentages together, that equates

412
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 1: to a little bit over five percent, about five point

413
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 1: eight percent. So essentially you're getting three percent more value

414
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 1: to take both teams to score no. Because obviously there

415
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 1: is that small percentage chance that let's say City gets

416
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 1: a red card or you know, obviously Hollin's outs that

417
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 1: hurts their offense and it just becomes Sleepwalk City. So

418
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 1: I'm taking both team to score No. Minus one twenty

419
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 1: because I have it projected at around minus one ninety,

420
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:30,400
Speaker 1: so I think there is a little bit of value

421
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 1: on that. So all right, let's move on to another Saturday,

422
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern time. Nottingham Forrest, who is currently sitting

423
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: at the bottom of the table, is hosting our boys, Brentford.

424
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 1: The Bees Nottingham Forrest is sitting at plus one seventy five,

425
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: Brentford at plus one sixty, with the draw at plus

426
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 1: two thirty. I think it has to be Bees or

427
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 1: nothing here. I mean Nottingham Forest. Obviously, we've talked about

428
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 1: it a lot. In their defensive regression, they kind of

429
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 1: came back where they're able to keep a couple of

430
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 1: clean sheets despite giving up a ton of chances and

431
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: a ton of expected goals. But all turn to you first.

432
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 1: But I do, I do like the B's in the spot.

433
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's got to be Brentford to nothing.

434
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: You know.

435
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 4: Nottingham's defense has improved for sure, but they're still so

436
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 4: open at the back. They're still really struggling on set

437
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 4: piece defense, which is a concern going up against Brentford.

438
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 4: I think this is Brentford and nothing. I show a

439
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 4: little bit of value on them. I don't know that

440
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 4: I want to bet them as a road favorite. The

441
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,920
Speaker 4: market seems to be souring a little bit on Brentford.

442
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 4: They haven't gotten.

443
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 1: Haven't all year? Anthony Mark Eight's Brentford.

444
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they're still doing fine. So you know, I

445
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 4: think this is a Brentford nothing spot. But ultimately probably

446
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 4: will not be getting to the window on a ticket

447
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 4: that here.

448
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Notingham Force's offense. I mean they're still

449
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 1: averaging point eight five non penalty expected goals for ninety

450
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: then one of only two teams averaging under ten shots

451
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes them in Bourne myth. Like you said,

452
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: they're very reliant on big scoring chances, mainly office set pieces.

453
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,199
Speaker 1: You know, they are the third most efficient team in

454
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 1: the Premier League. But you know, Brentford, you know, their

455
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 1: last two away matches have been let's just say less

456
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 1: than desirable, losing you know, four to one to ass

457
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 1: and Villa and then five to one two or four

458
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 1: zero excuse me, and then five to one to Newcastle.

459
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 1: But the previous four away matches before that, you know,

460
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 1: against lester Fulham Palace in Bournemouth, they actually did have

461
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 1: a positive expected gold differential. So I think the Bees

462
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 1: have looked better on the road than they did last year.

463
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 1: And this is a spot, you know, just honestly, I mean,

464
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: even if this is at a neutral field, essentially saying

465
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 1: Brentford would only be you know plus one ten plus

466
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,919
Speaker 1: one fifteen against Nottingam Forest, I don't find that to

467
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 1: be true. At all. I have Renford as a plus

468
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 1: one twenty nine road favorite, so I like the Bees

469
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 1: drawn o Bett at minus one fifteen.

470
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 4: By the way, Brentford is going to be seventeen to

471
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 4: one at Man City and two I will be matched, right,

472
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,360
Speaker 4: throwing a few shekels on that.

473
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brentford, I don't think they have.

474
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 3: Sixteen to one.

475
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 1: I don't think I have a bet, right, I don't

476
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 1: think they have too many guys going to the World Cups,

477
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 1: so yeah, they'll have a few, but not give.

478
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 3: The level at mcal damsguard will be winning the World

479
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 3: Cup with.

480
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 4: Denmark, yes, right after, That's true, right after he scores

481
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,119
Speaker 4: the winning goal at City. That is Otherwise, Yeah, I

482
00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 4: mean Tony might also be on the plane. But yeah, yeah,

483
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 4: they're alive next Saturday on the road for sure.

484
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to another eleven am Eastern

485
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 1: Saturday match, Wolves hosting Brighton, coming off that famous win

486
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: against Graham Potter. Wolves sitting at plus two forty, Brighton

487
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 1: a plus one fifteen road favorite, with the draw sitting

488
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 1: at plus two forty. I have nothing on this match.

489
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 1: I think Brighton is a tattle revalued on the road.

490
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: Wolves is obviously for a lot of positive aggression offensively.

491
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: They obviously drew with Brentford over the past weekend with

492
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 1: a one to one draw, still did not look that

493
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: great offensively. But I am passing on this. Do you

494
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: have any thoughts for Wolves and Brighton?

495
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 4: One more note about your point about Fulham and both

496
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 4: teams score. No, it doesn't happen often, but how many

497
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 4: times have we seen the game where the team creates

498
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 4: one and a half plus expected goals, dominates the match,

499
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 4: they can't find the finish.

500
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 3: And then they weren't clinical today and an ends.

501
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 4: No, No, it doesn't happen often, but you know it

502
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 4: happens enough that that little percentage makes a big difference.

503
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 4: So I agree with your point there on that. With

504
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 4: that being said this match, did I not say it?

505
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 3: Last week? Brentford LED's Wolves shoot from distance a bunch

506
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 3: of times and I.

507
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 1: Had both team to score, no, and I was like,

508
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 1: Wolves will probably bang bangs, they're due to bang with.

509
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 3: It's on point.

510
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's basically what happened. Now Diego Costa is suspended

511
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 4: with a red card, so it is it is so

512
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 4: dire in this Wolves attack right now, They're already bad

513
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 4: like you said, the fascinating thing with Wolves, they're eighth

514
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 4: and passes into the penalty area. There's seventh and crosses

515
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 4: and that is actually like pretty good and you're like, man,

516
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 4: this team should be pretty good.

517
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 3: But Jimenez, Collisitch Netto.

518
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 4: Now Costa fall out, mitheus Newt has been out, like

519
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 4: what how how do they score?

520
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 3: And look, it's that's the beauty of it.

521
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 1: I guess why.

522
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 4: Everybody's gonna bet the under and blah blah blah. Brighton

523
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 4: are playing more open defensively. You watch the game against

524
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 4: chelseare aggressive. They're much more aggressive, and I think the

525
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 4: market is not quite pricing that in here away from Home.

526
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: I still don't love the Wolves defense.

527
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,959
Speaker 4: I still think Brighton will score here, but again, you

528
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 4: just feel like there's going to be some transition opportunities.

529
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 3: I'm not betting this now. I got to see what.

530
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 4: The lineup's looking like before I bet this game, because

531
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 4: and I'm not normally a lineups guy, but this is

532
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 4: the kind of game where I need to like visualize

533
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 4: and kind of put together the plan of how Wolves

534
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 4: get at this team. But really it probably comes down

535
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 4: to Brighten over committing away from home and Wolves giving

536
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 4: a good effort at home and maybe Nami Neves will

537
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 4: hit another banger for me. Again, they continue to be

538
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 4: a team who will probably finish at a much higher

539
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 4: rate going forward than they have at this point in

540
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 4: the season.

541
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 3: I want to be there for it. So it's both

542
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 3: teams to score nothing for me, like minus one sixteen

543
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,719
Speaker 3: right now. So even that's like I'm laying juice in this.

544
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 3: I don't do that.

545
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 4: But it's funny because these two teams played at the

546
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 4: end of last season and it was a Pickham.

547
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 3: You know, my favorite bets of the year was Brighton.

548
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 4: Now it's you know, I got to lay a quarter goal,

549
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 4: so no more than a quarter pretty much. So no

550
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 4: interest in the Brighton Seagulls here, but definitely looking toward

551
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 4: the BTTs. But again waiting on a lineup because it's

552
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 4: gonna be really funny to see what they're gonna do.

553
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, the market is definitely just start.

554
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 3: A dominat striker.

555
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, really all we need. Yeah, I mean, the market

556
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: is definitely starting to catch up to Brighton right because,

557
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 1: like you know, you look at it, basically pick them

558
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: against Chelsea at home.

559
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: Last you know, least against Spurs at home.

560
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: Pick them against Spurs minus two fifty against nonnium force.

561
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: Like the the market has kind of caught off to Brighton,

562
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 1: so our chances of being able to bet them are

563
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 1: going to be kind of slim. And again, like we

564
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: say about that, well we'll see, we'll see. But hey,

565
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: you know.

566
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 4: What's what's their schedule looking like that's really what's gonna Yeah,

567
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 4: well what probably determined.

568
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: Is like, but you know what, we gotta break. We

569
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,959
Speaker 1: gotta move on to I'll let you do the schedule

570
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: here really quick, and then we'll move on.

571
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, they got Villa next weekend, Nope, and then Saints away,

572
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 4: Arsenal at home Christmas and New Year's Eve.

573
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: So there you go.

574
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: That'll be the next Brighton spot.

575
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: Okay, perfect, all right, let's move on because we got

576
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: to get to the headliner of SA Saturday at one

577
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern Time during a wonderful college football state.

578
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure everybody is going to be tuned into this

579
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: in the second half instead of getting ready for Tennessee

580
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: Georgia Everton hosting Lester Everton's a plus one forty home

581
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: favorite Lester's at plus one ninety. The Jaw sitting at

582
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: plus two forty. Who cares this line is is priced?

583
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 1: I think it's priced correctly. Like, I guess I could

584
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 1: make a little bit of a case for Everton like

585
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: they have. I mean, but again, like I don't know

586
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: what to make of Everton anymore. Like I will say,

587
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: Lester is starting to get a lot of their positive

588
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 1: aggression back defensively, Danny Hord is actually playing a lot

589
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: better as a goalkeeper.

590
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 4: So yeah, when does the attack regress then? Because yeah,

591
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 4: when they've run so well there, that is kind of insane.

592
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know Lester, especially you know, with a

593
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: lot of their their players are are teeing up for

594
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: January moves. So this could be the last Swan song

595
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 1: if you actually wanted to bet this current Lester team.

596
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm glad Michael's not on this episode to

597
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: try to talk into to Everton at this number, I'll

598
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: be passing. Do you have anything for this wonderful one

599
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: thirty PM headliner?

600
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 3: Easiest pass on the board?

601
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, you make that joke every week, right, But like

602
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 4: it is with Everton's defense is kind of remarkable right now. Yeah,

603
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 4: it is the way that they've the way that they've

604
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 4: run this season. You know we've talked about at Pickford

605
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 4: is second best in post shot works. I mean Everton

606
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,719
Speaker 4: goalkeepers our second best in post shot expected goal difference.

607
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 4: Everton have conceded the fourth most expected goals in the league,

608
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 4: and yet they have only conceded twelve goals, which is

609
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: the fourth best in the league.

610
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: So that really kind of gets to the point they're

611
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 3: the wolves of this year.

612
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: Yep.

613
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 4: It's not just goalies though, Like their defense is also

614
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: getting super lucky with how opponents you're shooting against them.

615
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: But now they play a team.

616
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 4: Who we all agree has finished at an alarmingly good

617
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 4: rate and is not going to continue to do that

618
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 4: for the rest of the season. They're a team that

619
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 4: has twenty one goals from thirteen ex This is it's

620
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 4: like the regression. You know, indicators you can talk about

621
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 4: are like pointing inn opposite directions, And from a tactical

622
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 4: point of view, I think Everton are just gonna let

623
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 4: Lester have the ball and then dare them to break

624
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 4: them down, which they won't really be able to do,

625
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 4: and then Everton will look to counter, which they could

626
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 4: be able to do. Like that's the argument I think

627
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 4: for Everton here. Yeah, Like you look at the aggregates,

628
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 4: like how good has each team been thus far this season?

629
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 4: They're like pretty even. The next few different, so like

630
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 4: a tenth of a goal difference. So you throw in

631
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 4: home field, Everton's a small favorite. If it got to

632
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 4: a true pick them, I'd be on Everton. But otherwise

633
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 4: this feels like an easy stay away and another week

634
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 4: where they put the bad match the twelve thirty.

635
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: If you ask Michael, Everton deserves to be in prime

636
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: time every single week.

637
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 3: That game never made it onto my screen.

638
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 4: I was watching I don't even remember what was on,

639
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 4: whatever was on another league, I was watching that instead, right,

640
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 4: and I.

641
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 1: Think there was a good Bundesliga match. Yeah, I mean

642
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: under two and a half is juiced at minus one

643
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: twenty five. I have no interest in playing that. I

644
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 1: mean Everton in the last three matches they've conceded four

645
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: expected goals and only let one goal in. And that's

646
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: just kind of been the kind of been then their

647
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: entire story this entire season. So yeah, easiest passing the board.

648
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Sunday at nine am Eastern time.

649
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: Let's start with west Ham hosting Crystal Palace. West Ham's

650
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: and minus one ten home favorite Crystal Palace sitting at

651
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: plus three twenty with the draw at plus two fifty.

652
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: I have nothing on this match. I think it's honestly

653
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: correctly priced. I think west Ham is deserving of being

654
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: a minus one ten home favorite. Palace has had some

655
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: kind of up and down results. They've kind of followed

656
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: the trajectory as we've talked about last season, where they're

657
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: very good at Salhurst Park and then they've just really

658
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: struggled on the road. You know, you look at them

659
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: losing three nothing to Everton, getting outplayed by Lester on

660
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: the road, and then obviously gott you know, obliterated by

661
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle their last that's been their last three road matches.

662
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: So but again I have no interest in laying west

663
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: Ham at minus one ten right now. I think it's

664
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: correctly priced. Do you have anything for west Ham in

665
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace? Yeah?

666
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 4: No, not playing Palace away from the park. They have

667
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 4: created three expected goals in five away matches this season,

668
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 4: they've conceded a little over nine. That's the second worst

669
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 4: in the league, behind only Bournemouth. And yet Bournemouth is

670
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 4: actually produced a road win this season, whereas.

671
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: Palace has not.

672
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 4: I'm sure if Leeboff were here, he would be extremely

673
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 4: conflicted by this match because he loves both managers, and

674
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 4: he would probably take Palace on the money line and

675
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 4: say that there's not that much difference between these two teams.

676
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 4: I actually don't have that much difference between these two

677
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 4: teams either. West Ham should be a favorite. I make

678
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 4: them right around even money. They're laying one twenty. This

679
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 4: is another one where I'm not that interested in betting,

680
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 4: but we'll be interested to watch it. Have has implications

681
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 4: for me with futures with Palace, and so hopefully Palace

682
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 4: wins it.

683
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: But I'm not going to be on it.

684
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to another. We'll save the

685
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: best nine am window match for the last. Let's move

686
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: on to Southampton versus Newcastle and Newcastle's of minus one

687
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: ten road favorite Southampton sitting at plus three hundred, the

688
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: draw sitting at plus two sixty. Again, another match that

689
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: I think is actually correctly priced. Like you know, I

690
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: guess you could talk me into Newcastle given the form,

691
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,959
Speaker 1: but Southampton hasn't really been that bad like this season,

692
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: like we've mentioned on the last podcast, Like Hassen huddl

693
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: just when his job is in danger, he finds a

694
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: way to get a couple results and then you know

695
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: they ends up saving its job. I mean they were

696
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 1: you know, obviously Powace scored early on the road there.

697
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: You know they really were in that match. They ended

698
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: up winning unexpected goals. They played arsenal Verry even on XG.

699
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 1: You know, I have no interest again, I think it

700
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: is correctly priced. The Newcastle defense is something to watch

701
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: for maybe some unders and in both teams to score. No. Like,

702
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: they have been one of the best defenses in the

703
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: Premier League this season. They're an outstanding pressing team in

704
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: terms of obviously in terms of counter pressing. But you know,

705
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: Eashak is still out, Joe Linton is out for this match,

706
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 1: so a little bit of question marks with Newcastle. So

707
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: I'll be passing. Do you have anything for Newcastle and Southampton?

708
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 3: I think Southampton might be the most boring team in

709
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: the league.

710
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like we have never had any like

711
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 4: strong takes on them either way, and they're just like

712
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 4: generically bad and they're not even interestingly bad anymore where

713
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 4: they're like competitive with the Big six. So we're like,

714
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 4: oh we want to bet them here. They're not great

715
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 4: at home or away, like their splits are boring. They

716
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 4: had an undeserved palace. I think on the aggregate it

717
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 4: played well at home against Arsenal, like they were fine

718
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 4: at Bourne. Myth like they're just kind of in the doldrums.

719
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 4: They're just a generically bad team that plays above I

720
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 4: think they play above their talent. I think it's very

721
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 4: easy to square out here and take Newcastle and lay

722
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 4: the juice. I would say that Newcastle's getting to the

723
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 4: point where they're a little inflated getting there. They're not

724
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 4: quite there. It was like minus one forty or so.

725
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 4: I think i'd come back on Southampton, but otherwise this

726
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: is to stay away from me, just kind of gathering

727
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: more data on Newcastle though, continue to be impressed by

728
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 4: what they're doing. Another strong performance against Villa, totally dominant,

729
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 4: dominated Everton and have been excellent at home.

730
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 3: They haven't traveled quite as well.

731
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 4: There's something maybe to keep an eye on, but definitely

732
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 4: think Newcastle has a new found respect in me.

733
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to I would say the

734
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: best Sunday, nine am Eastern time, wind no match the

735
00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: syndicate Aston Villa under new management. Our boy, they are

736
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: sitting at plus two sixty home underdog against Manchester United,

737
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 1: who is a plus one hundred road favored, with the

738
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: draw sitting at plus two sixty. Obviously, Unimri was not

739
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: in charge when they got drubbed for nothing on the

740
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: road against Newcastle last week. But I amaged to get

741
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:24,239
Speaker 1: your thoughts on if Uniamory what he can change at

742
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: Aston Villa to turn what is a pretty talented roster

743
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: honestly into essentially what we thought at the beginning of

744
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: the season, which would be a team that would be

745
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: battling as the best team outside of the Big Six. Yeah.

746
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 4: I can't take credit for this take because the double

747
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 4: hiviic guy has made a good point about this and

748
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 4: mentioned how Emory had excellent passers at VI Real like

749
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 4: they were really well built to play how he wanted

750
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 4: in the conservative.

751
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 3: Possession and actually.

752
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 4: Were an effective low block team when they needed to

753
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 4: be in the Champions League. But then when they were

754
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 4: in the league of playing lower sides, they were actually

755
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 4: a very good possession side because of the passing.

756
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: Do they have that at Villa? I don't know. I'm

757
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 3: not so sure.

758
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 4: I think there's some definitely some more of a challenge.

759
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 4: They also have more attackers on the pitch that normally

760
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 4: like Ings and Watkins and Bunda and Catino like. That's

761
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 4: a lot of attacking players and the Emerta is not

762
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 4: known for loading up his lineup full of.

763
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 3: Attackers, so that will be interesting. But I think in

764
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: this match.

765
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 4: Specifically, while he's still working out the kinks, we're going

766
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 4: to see a very conservative Villa approach against a Big

767
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: six team, a United team that's playing much better. The

768
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 4: most impressive thing that I've seen from United has been

769
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 4: that they have been so much better out of possession,

770
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 4: and it really has started in Liverpool match way back

771
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 4: after the Brentford and Brightened debackles. They were much better

772
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 4: out of possession against Liverpool and I think they've remained

773
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: that way in every match. Okay, yeah, they got dropped

774
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: by my Man City, they will not be the only

775
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 4: team to do that.

776
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: But against Arsenal they were pretty good out of possession.

777
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 4: The Everton match they dominated, the Newcastle match, they didn't

778
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 4: create much, but they were good out of possession. Spurs

779
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 4: match control the flow of the game, so I think

780
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 4: what we're seeing now is that.

781
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 3: The defense is making significant improvements.

782
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 4: Under one expected goal all out to Everton, Newcastle Spurs

783
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 4: west Ham. They allowed a little over one to Chelsea,

784
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 4: but again that was with the penalty. So the defense

785
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 4: has made significant improvements just by being better without the ball.

786
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 4: I don't think they're an elite defensive team, but I

787
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 4: think they're better now they go on the road. I

788
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 4: still have questions about the attack they started. Ronaldo he's

789
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 4: cocked man like every time he's out there. Their attack

790
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 4: is just worse and they don't have They're not getting

791
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 4: a lot of production from Sancho and even Antony like

792
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 4: I love him, but like he's not producing a ton

793
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 4: their shots. Average shot distance is super long. That's a concern.

794
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 4: Like the attack is not right. I think that's if

795
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 4: we're talking about United now. Isn't improved United. They're better

796
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 4: defensively than they ever were in the last two years,

797
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 4: and the attack is still not there. I'm betting the

798
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 4: under here two and a half minus one of four.

799
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 4: I think Villa will be very conservative. They'll be at home.

800
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 4: They're going to struggle to to keep the ball here.

801
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 4: But I don't see United running up the score on

802
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: a good defense.

803
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 1: Right yeah, I'll be on aston Villa plus half a

804
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 1: goal minus one thirty. You mentioned the United attack. You

805
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: know Anthony is out, Bruna Fernandz is on a yellow

806
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 1: card suspension, Jayden Sancho is questionable. So now they're going

807
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: to have to roll with Ronaldo, who, like we said,

808
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: is cooked. Marcus Rashfud has been in good for him

809
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: in Anthony Alonga. So that's not the greatest attack when

810
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: you're going up against what we believe is one of

811
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: the better low blocks in the Premier League. And the

812
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 1: good news is Uniamory at Viarel. You know what he

813
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 1: did such a good job of is when they did

814
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: play those bigger sides, is he would just compress the

815
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 1: space in between the lines and essentially create what we

816
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: saw honestly with that Ladi Go Madrid for so many

817
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: years when they got became way way, way too defensive.

818
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: But what he's going to have to fix with aston Villa,

819
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, they had good pastors of via Ral,

820
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: it's that transition into offense which Gerard could not figure out.

821
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,959
Speaker 1: Because aston Villa consistently was near the bottom and expected goals.

822
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 1: They weren't able to transition the ball and get it

823
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: moving forward out of that low block to actually counter people.

824
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 1: So I tend to agree with you that, Yeah, under

825
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: two and a half is you know, a good way

826
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: to look at this. In terms of spots, this is

827
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 1: not a good one for United, like they you know,

828
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 1: they go on the road for a very very important

829
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: Europa League match against Socia Dad on Thursday one. They

830
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: have to win to win the group. This is their

831
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 1: fifth match in fourteen days to back to back travel spot.

832
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: You know, even defensively, Verana is still out. So yeah,

833
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: I have some major question marks about United and Villa.

834
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: They might turn into essentially the Crystal Palace of last season.

835
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 1: Their home road splits are actually quite drastic. They're at

836
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: plus one point nine at home in minus five and

837
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: a half on the road. So we'll be on the

838
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: syndicate plus half a goal at minus one thirty. All right,

839
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: That rats up the Premier League slate. Let's move on

840
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: to the rest of Europe. But first Wonder Goal is

841
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

842
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: Sign Up with promo code action to get BET three

843
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,480
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844
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: Bet one dollar on any game and get two hundred free.

845
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 1: Let's start off with in Germany with the Bundesliga. What's

846
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 1: your best bet in Germany this weekend?

847
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 3: Anthony, Yeah, I'm Stunn.

848
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 4: This is three Shaka and Braymen under I did not

849
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 4: expect it to get this high. The market loves Brayman

850
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 4: and like I've come around on them too, and I've

851
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 4: kind of just been like, okay, yeah, the talent was

852
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 4: better than maybe the you know, every year teams come

853
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 4: up from that second division in Germany and they're always

854
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 4: a little bit underrated because there's the second division in

855
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 4: Germany is one, it's a really fun league for neutrals,

856
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 4: but also two, it's like pretty competitive at the top

857
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 4: and you tend to get some pretty good teams to

858
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 4: come up. The gap between them and the bottom of

859
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 4: the Bundesliga is not that big because there's just not

860
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 4: that much money at the bottom of the Bundesliga. And

861
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 4: what we've seen from Bremen is that they're like a

862
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 4: solid team who you know, should probably be roughly around

863
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 4: the mid table. Right now, they're at home against Shaka Shaka.

864
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 4: New manager Bounce has somewhat been not really materialized, but

865
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 4: I think what you're going to see from Shaka is

866
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 4: going to be a more defensive approach, and I think

867
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 4: that will be the the kind of going situation here.

868
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 4: Do you trust Brahman to create enough chances to get

869
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 4: margin and to get over this three which seems incredible

870
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 4: to think about. Shaka this season have conceded twenty eight

871
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 4: goals from twenty expected.

872
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,240
Speaker 3: They're not going to continue to run that badly.

873
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 4: And yeah, they put in some decent performances their last

874
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 4: two games since the new manager came in, even if

875
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 4: they haven't gotten results, So maybe we're going to see

876
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 4: some improvement from them.

877
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 3: But I'm taking the under.

878
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on Hoffenheim Leipsig over three goals and

879
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: even money. It's a kind of a difficult spot for

880
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 1: Leipzig coming off a road trip to Poland in the

881
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: Champions League, you know, having traveled to Hoffenheim. But this

882
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: the Leipzig offense is ab has been cooking lately and

883
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 1: twelve point seven expected goals in their last five matches.

884
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: They'd put over two expended goals against Real Madrid in

885
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: the Champions League last week. The reason, you know, especially

886
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 1: for Leipzig, they had a difficult start the season. They

887
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: obviously fired to Desco and brought in Marco Rosa, so

888
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: they're sitting in sixth place. They have to take this

889
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: match seriously. They can't just rest guys and kind of

890
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: just say, all right, we're in the top four, like

891
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: we're not catching Bayron Robinson, not catching under Blend because

892
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: they're going to win the Bundesliga, so let's just you know,

893
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: shut it down and let our guys go to the

894
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 1: World Cup. But the reality is that the Leipzig we've

895
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 1: talked about many many times is like transition defense is

896
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 1: still a major major problem. Like in those five matches

897
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: they allowed, they've allowed seven point nine expected goals. So

898
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 1: in Hoefenheim, they don't really get enough love for their offense,

899
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: like it's been top five in the Bundesliga over the

900
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,839
Speaker 1: past two seasons, like they were fourth and expected goals

901
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: last year their fourth this year, averaging one point six

902
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes, and that what they do

903
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: is such a good job is they can play a

904
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: very blending style. You know, they play out of three

905
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: to five to two, so when they play bigger sides,

906
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: they can obviously drop the wayne back's back to be

907
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 1: you know, play five at the back, but they are

908
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: very very quick in transition. You know, they obviously have

909
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: one of the more underrated attackers in Krimerick, the Croatian

910
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: who will be at the World Cup. And essentially what

911
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: they try to do against bigger sides, which they you know,

912
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: have had to some degree of success in the passes,

913
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: they just bait them in and they get them quick

914
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: moving on the counter and so slide stake has been

915
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 1: you know, not that great and transition defense, I think

916
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 1: they'll be able to hurt them quite a bit on

917
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 1: the counter and if Leipzig goes up early, this match

918
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 1: is going to just become incredibly open. So I have

919
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 1: three point three goals projected, so I like over three goals.

920
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: That even money. All right, let's move on to Italy.

921
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: What is your favorite bet in Syria ah this weekend, Anthony, Yeah, it's.

922
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 4: Milan Spetsia under three. I know we have the Rome

923
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 4: Derby and I did take some Roma still like them

924
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 4: at the current number, they have moved a little bit.

925
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 4: Lazzio finally beat those clowns last week with Sourniitana. God

926
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 4: blessed Sournitana an amazing performance. But I like the under here.

927
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 4: This really comes down to Milan's defense still being really good,

928
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 4: and that's continued from last season.

929
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 3: They've actually they've fallen off a little bit, but Le's

930
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 3: they've had a lot of injuries.

931
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 4: So now that they have a healthier back line, Simon

932
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,399
Speaker 4: Pierre looks like he'll be back. Milan expecting a better

933
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,959
Speaker 4: defensive output. They're hosting Spetsia. Spetsia is the second worst

934
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 4: attack in the league by expected goals. They have created

935
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 4: nothing this season, So I down to three.

936
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 3: It's just a little too high.

937
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Adelanta plus half a goal at home.

938
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: The minus went twenty five against Napoli and I tried

939
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 1: to fade Napoli a couple of weeks ago too against

940
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: Roma and it didn't work. But here's the reality is that, yes,

941
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 1: this Napoli team is so much fun. Like they have

942
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys who, you know, bigger clubs didn't

943
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: really want, who they got on the cheap, and these

944
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: guys are starting to prove essentially is how good they are.

945
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: And they finally came back down to earth a little

946
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 1: bit against Liverpool. Obviously it was a spot where they

947
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: just needed a draw, so you could, you know, make

948
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: the case, so they didn't really care about it. But

949
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 1: I mentioned this a few weeks ago. Napoli's schedule in

950
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 1: Syria has been quite easy to begin the season. Nine

951
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 1: of their twelve matches have come against the bottom half

952
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 1: of the table. So while their expected goals numbers are

953
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: very impressive, like they've created twenty five expected goals in

954
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 1: twelve matches, the two biggest matches they've had they've played Milan.

955
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 1: They've beat them to one. They lost the expected goals

956
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: a botut one to one point five. Then they went

957
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 1: on the road and played Roma, beat them one nothing.

958
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: But it was a very low event match. Roma, kind

959
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 1: of Josie Marinham just sat incredibly deep and essentially was

960
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 1: playing for a draw in the second half. You know,

961
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 1: expect goals is only point nine to two point three.

962
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: Adalante is currently sitting in second place, and they are

963
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 1: a very weird team to figure out this season. You know,

964
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 1: in the past, they've been a great pressing team, great

965
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 1: defense and everything. This season they're in the bottom half

966
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 1: of Italy in progressive passes and dribbles allowed expected thread allowed,

967
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 1: which is fine, like you know, as we've seen with Roma,

968
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: you can let teams in your final third as long

969
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 1: as you're you know, elite at defending your penalty area,

970
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: which at Alanta is kind of average at Like they

971
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 1: are allowing a shot distance of twenty yards on average,

972
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 1: which is really good, and they are, you know, one

973
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 1: of the top teams in terms of big scoring chances allow,

974
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: but they're in the middle of the pack in terms

975
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 1: of passes allowed in the penalty are so it's a

976
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: little concerning. But then you know, when you circle back

977
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 1: and say, all right, well they're allowing a pretty large

978
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: shot distance and they're not allowing a lot of big

979
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: scoring chances, it lends itself to say, okay, maybe that

980
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: Napoli is a tat over vald Here. I mean, Adelanta

981
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 1: has had one bad performance in Syria odd this season

982
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: they give they luck box to one hill win against

983
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: Roma and they give two over two expected. And the

984
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: biggest thing with Adelanta is that they have been incredibly

985
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: low block and direct this season, Like they have thirty

986
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: two direct attacks and only five build up attacks, so

987
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: they will be well equipped to sit into a low block,

988
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 1: allow Napole to control most of the possession and then

989
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: look to hit them on the counter so, and I

990
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 1: think it's a bad spot here for Napoli, you know,

991
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: back to back road trips, you know, for Liverpool and

992
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: then at Alanta. So I think I tend to think

993
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,760
Speaker 1: they are over valued as a plus one ten road favorite,

994
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 1: and I don't like that. I have to keep fading.

995
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: How good that fading? This really good Napolete team, but

996
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: the market discontinues to tell them that they are leaps

997
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: and bounds better than anybody in Italy, which you know.

998
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 3: I don't agree with that.

999
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 1: I don't agree with that at all.

1000
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 3: So long before when Napoli were teams fall off.

1001
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 4: Now I love this team like Keavar Scalia is amazing

1002
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 4: and Ocumn's in the middle of breakout.

1003
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 3: But they're definitely inflated here one hundred percent. I mean,

1004
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 3: I allowt to catching a half a goal at home almost.

1005
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait coach at the game time, but I'll

1006
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 4: probably be joining you on ladeya.

1007
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's move over to Spain and La Liga.

1008
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: I tend to know I tend to.

1009
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 4: Teams to score no, right, it's right, eighty eighth minute.

1010
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that's I was watching it.

1011
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 2: That was that was incredible and for people who weren't

1012
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: watching LJA.

1013
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 3: And nobody was watch. What else were you doing on

1014
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: nobody was watching? I had goal alerts on. I saw

1015
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 3: and I'll take out.

1016
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: A penalty on one of the dumbest handball calls I

1017
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: think I've ever seen. It literally hit the guy's shoulder,

1018
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 1: but he moved his arm backwards so it looked like

1019
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: he got it on his arm. Var reviewed it and

1020
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 1: they just upheld it and then the guy saved the penalty.

1021
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 1: So it was justice, honestly, So it wasn't luck. It

1022
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 1: was justice. Anyway. Where are you going in Spain this weekend?

1023
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 3: Ryo, Ryo, Ryo, Ryo? The boys, you know they're good.

1024
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 4: I saw people that said they weren't going to be

1025
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,720
Speaker 4: good this year. I read that people told me relegation candidate.

1026
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 4: It was like two people. But they they have continued

1027
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 4: to be a solid mid table team and now they

1028
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 4: get the big bad boys from Madrid going making the

1029
00:44:58,960 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 4: trip to Madrid.

1030
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: Dark people don't know who Ryo Vakano is.

1031
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,919
Speaker 4: Also in Madrid, the overlooked of the three Madrid teams

1032
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 4: in the league. I love them catching a goal at

1033
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 4: home against Real Madrid. You know, we talk about you

1034
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 4: know we're nearing the World Cup. Yere Real Madrid. I

1035
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 4: don't love that they just drop points to Girona, like

1036
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 4: they're probably going to be super focused. We saw them

1037
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 4: today just completely route Celtic in the Champions League. So

1038
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 4: do we get an angry Madrid. Okay, maybe that's like definitely,

1039
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 4: definitely concerning. But I'm getting a goal at home, So

1040
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 4: I'm going to take that every day of the week

1041
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 4: with this team. Ryo, who outplayed at Leti two weeks ago,

1042
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 4: who has a positive expected goal difference, who is excellent

1043
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 4: at home they generally love to show up at home

1044
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 4: plus point eight seven e actually difference at home this season.

1045
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 4: I get a full goal, I'm gonna sprinkle some money

1046
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:43,879
Speaker 4: line as well.

1047
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably be on there with you. I am

1048
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 1: going with oth is soon a plus half a goal

1049
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 1: of minus one thirty on the road at Celta Vigo.

1050
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: The market seems to love Celta Vigo for some reason.

1051
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure why. Not bad, They're not bad,

1052
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: but they were also a road at Almeria like this

1053
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: past weekend. Obviously, you know, Almeri got lucky because South

1054
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: Viago got a red card. But like they were road,

1055
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 1: they were a minus one fifty at home against Gatafe,

1056
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: and they were essentially a slight home favorite against Sociodad.

1057
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 1: Like I guess you can make the argument that they're

1058
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: due for positive aggression, like they're minus eleven actual goal

1059
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 1: differential only minus four expected, but I mean there's still

1060
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: an averaging under one expect goal per match. They've only

1061
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: created eight big scoring chances in twelve matches, and they

1062
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 1: are the worst team in Laaliga at playing through pressure.

1063
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 1: They're going against a really really good defensive side and

1064
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: Osasuna who's only allowing point seven to eight non penalty

1065
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: expect goals per match. They have a I mean, oh

1066
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 1: stonent's got a plus five expected goaldiffrench on the season.

1067
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: They're in the top half of the Laveliga table and

1068
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: oh Soon as the top five pressing team in Spance.

1069
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: I think that this is way way too high for

1070
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,439
Speaker 1: Selta Beego and what will be a very low, low

1071
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: event match with a total set up too, So I

1072
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 1: like Oh Sooner plus half a goal at minus one thirty.

1073
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to finally to France in

1074
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: League on. Do you have something in France this weekend.

1075
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 4: Yes, Leo hosting Wren this weekend. Pick them on the spread,

1076
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 4: make these two teams very comparable. Ren is one five

1077
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 4: in a row. They've been excellent, no doubt about it.

1078
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 4: Definitely a good sell high spot on them. Leo at

1079
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 4: home taking them with the on the DRAWNO badline.

1080
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like nice minus one twenty at home and

1081
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 1: at St Breast. You know, Brest has gotten a couple

1082
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: of good results. They obviously created three expected goals against

1083
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 1: Claremont foot Uh two weeks ago, and then last week

1084
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 1: they played a neil nil draw with Reems. You know,

1085
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: won the expected goals battle. But this is a team

1086
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 1: that's still sitting in the relegation zone, who still has

1087
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 1: a round of minus five expected Goldiffrenchill, who will be

1088
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 1: without their number one striker ishlm Solimani former lester great

1089
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:49,359
Speaker 1: Niee is a big time positive regression candidate. There around

1090
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 1: a plus four expected gold of French on the season

1091
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 1: minus three actual gold Differnchial. There's a lot of talent

1092
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: on this team, obviously, a bunch of names who we've

1093
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 1: seen in the past, like Nicholas Pepe and Aaron Ram

1094
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 1: and such. But I think the price is a little

1095
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: too cheap here. Your boys for nice, my boys, yeah

1096
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 1: for nice at home. Yeah, unfortunately both my ars my

1097
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: Arsenal reject boys could knock out Tottenham in the Champions

1098
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: League at Marseille. But anyway, all right, let's move on

1099
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: to our favorite segment, our favorite underdogs of the weekend.

1100
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 1: What do you have as your favorite underdog this weekend?

1101
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 4: I just talked about it, or we just talked about it.

1102
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 4: Rather with Marseille, I'm going to take Leon plus two ten.

1103
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,280
Speaker 4: It's funny because these two teams played in the spring

1104
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 4: in Marseille. The line was Leon plus two ten.

1105
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:38,799
Speaker 3: I bet it. They won the match three to zero.

1106
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 3: I don't think that much has really changed between these

1107
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 3: two teams.

1108
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 4: I think they're very comparable when you look at their

1109
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 4: underlying numbers, their overall talent. I think you could make

1110
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 4: an argument that Leon's actually a better team. So I'm

1111
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 4: going to take them plus two to fifteen on the

1112
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 4: money line.

1113
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Majorca five to one on the money

1114
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 1: line at the Real vi Areel obviously on our new manager,

1115
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 1: Key k former Barcelona manager who managed them for essentially

1116
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 1: during the pandemic. They had one match against Athletic Bilbao

1117
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 1: where he was in charge and it was not a

1118
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,919
Speaker 1: good performance at all. Bill Bill completely dominated them one

1119
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: point eight to point three on XG. Majorca has been

1120
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: putting in good performances lately. You know. They drew Espaniel

1121
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: over the past weekend, beat them one point three to

1122
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:18,760
Speaker 1: point three unexpected goals. They won the expected goals battle

1123
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: and beat Valencia on the road a couple of weeks ago.

1124
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 1: You know, played Real soci Dad, very very tough. You know,

1125
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 1: should have won against Sevilla at home. Like this is

1126
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: a team that's that's really should be battling towards the

1127
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: you know, the top half of the table. They've even

1128
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 1: had a performance against Barcelona where they won the expected

1129
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 1: goals battle. So I think the price is way too

1130
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: high on a Vireal not really a new manager bounce

1131
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: when your manager leaves for a different club and you

1132
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: have to find a new one. So I like New

1133
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: Orca at five to one. All right, let's move on

1134
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: to our favorite bets in the Premier League this weekend.

1135
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: What do you what is your favorite bet in England

1136
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: this weekend?

1137
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 4: Anthony Aston Villa and Manchester United under two and a

1138
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:57,919
Speaker 4: half at minus one oh four.

1139
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 3: We've spoken about this game man.

1140
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 4: United has really improved defensively under Eric Tenhawk.

1141
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 3: They've been excellent out of possession. They've been limiting more.

1142
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 4: Chances as time has passed since those first two opening debacles,

1143
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 4: they've been much better. The attack though, has not really

1144
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 4: taken that step forward that I thought that it might starting.

1145
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 4: Christiano Ronaldo not working out as a net positive for

1146
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 4: them with the limited chance creation they're getting and how

1147
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 4: the attack has built around him. Villa should be excellent defensively,

1148
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 4: especially at home. New manager with Emery, we know they're

1149
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 4: going to be defensively solid.

1150
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 3: That's always been true with Villa. Problem has been getting forward.

1151
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,240
Speaker 4: It's going to be a problem for them against United,

1152
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 4: I think, and we do have some injuries and suspensions

1153
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 4: to look out for with United as well. In attack

1154
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 4: already limited in their production now could be even further

1155
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 4: limited by injuries and suspensions.

1156
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 3: So give me the other of two and a half.

1157
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: I like my boys. Arsenal minus one oh five drawn,

1158
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,959
Speaker 1: no Bett at Chelsea. Chelsea has not been good under

1159
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 1: Graham Potter. They've lost the expected goals battle in their

1160
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 1: last four matches against Bradford, against Aston, Villa Manchester United,

1161
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 1: and it all culminated with a four to one drubbing

1162
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: at Brighton over the weekend. Arsenal has been one of

1163
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: the best defensive teams in the Premier Leave don't allowing

1164
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 1: point seven to seven non penalty expected goals per match,

1165
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 1: only allowed five big scoring chances. Chelsea is really struggling

1166
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: to turn final third possession into any type of scoring chance.

1167
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: If you look through their offensive metrics, their top six

1168
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: and progressive passes, expected threat even box entries, but their

1169
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 1: tenth and expected goals because they've created the seventh fewest

1170
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: big scoring chances, So when they don't have a true

1171
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: out and out striker to get on the end of

1172
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 1: those chances, it seems that they are not able to

1173
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: finish off and create a lot of big create a

1174
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 1: lot of expected goals because they're only averaging one point

1175
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 1: two on the season. So I generally think that this

1176
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 1: match should not be a pick them, that Arsenal should

1177
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 1: be a slight favorite here on the road. Give me

1178
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 1: the gunners, John O Bett and minus one oh five.

1179
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 1: All Right, that'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1180
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening. We will be back next

1181
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 1: Wednesday for the last round of Premier League matches as

1182
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 1: we gear up for the World Cup. Also make sure

1183
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 1: to stay tuned to the Wonder Goal podcast feed. As

1184
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 1: we get near the World Cup, we'll have a ton

1185
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: of podcasts, a ton of content coming out for you guys.

1186
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 1: We'll lay it all out either on Twitter or maybe

1187
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 1: on our last episode before the World Cup. But for

1188
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: Anthony Duvndo, I'm BJ Cunningham. Thank you all for listening,

1189
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 1: and good luck with your wagers this weekend.