Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,
Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today.
Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.
Speaker 1: Of course we're going to leave the show once again
Speaker 1: with new polling data. Yesterday we had a bunch of
Speaker 1: polls that look pretty good for Trump. Today it's a
Speaker 1: little bit of a different picture and interesting commentary from
Speaker 1: Harry Eton, so I will take a look at that.
Speaker 1: We also have an exclusive from the Center for Working
Speaker 1: Class Politics. They have some new polling that really breaks
Speaker 1: down how the working class is thinking about this election
Speaker 1: in the state of Pennsylvania specifically. Really really recommend this
Speaker 1: segment to you. We actually recorded it yesterday, so I
Speaker 1: already know it's going to be fantastic. So you'd have
Speaker 1: phone a tune in for that interesting from John's Stewart.
Speaker 1: He confronted Tim Walls over their whole Liz and Dick
Speaker 1: Cheney strategy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we'll talk to you about that.
Speaker 1: Also, we're taking a look at Polymarket, which has been
Speaker 1: really championed by a lot of Republicans, which has shown
Speaker 1: Trump surging for a while now, could potentially be rigged,
Speaker 1: so we'll dig into those details. Also got some new
Speaker 1: allegations we wanted to cover about Diddy. Two other unnamed
Speaker 1: celebrities also named in this or we don't have specific names,
Speaker 1: but also alleged to have been involved in this criminal activity.
Speaker 1: And we're taking a look at THEO vonn choking up
Speaker 1: over thinking about what is being done to Gods's children
Speaker 1: and CNN with in the running now for perhaps the
Speaker 1: worst article written about this kind. I mean, it's just unimaginably.
Speaker 2: You don't even believe it. I actually couldn't believe that
Speaker 2: it was real until I read it, so very same.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I pulled it up. I was like, this can't
Speaker 3: be right.
Speaker 2: There's no way anyways, but you know they never stoop
Speaker 2: to new Low So anyway, thank you to so much
Speaker 2: to our premusbscribers. Who've been signing up. You guys got
Speaker 2: access to that exclusive Logan interview yesterday. We're down the wire.
Speaker 2: It is officially two weeks now to election day, which
Speaker 2: is incredible. Go ahead and sign up at breakingpoints dot com.
Speaker 2: Become a premium subscriber because you're going to get access
Speaker 2: to our exclusive election predictions and all of that first
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Speaker 2: breakingpoints dot com and you'll see it there.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: As Chrystal said, we've got polls really all over the
Speaker 2: map one, so we're going to point in a couple
Speaker 2: of different directions, both into where the polling error might
Speaker 2: be and to where some potential good bullish news for
Speaker 2: Kamala might be. Here, Harry Enton has aggregated a bunch
Speaker 2: of polls and is starting to look at white working
Speaker 2: class support for Donald Trump and where even though he
Speaker 2: is winning, by not winning as much, could potentially lose
Speaker 2: those blue Wall states. Here's what he had to say.
Speaker 5: We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald
Speaker 5: Trump's direction. So you would think his core group, his
Speaker 5: base of support, would be doing the same, but in
Speaker 5: fact it's moving a little bit away from him. So
Speaker 5: this is Trump's margin with non college white voters. Unlike
Speaker 5: most so voting blocks, this group is not moving towards me,
Speaker 5: it's actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight
Speaker 5: years ago, he won h buy thirty three. You go
Speaker 5: back four years ago, he won him buy thirty one.
Speaker 5: Now what we look is we see that in the
Speaker 5: latest average of polls, he's only up by twenty seven. Now,
Speaker 5: that may not seem like a lot, but given that
Speaker 5: we're seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters
Speaker 5: or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the
Speaker 5: fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually
Speaker 5: moving away from him, not just off of the twenty
Speaker 5: sixteen baseline, but the twenty twenty baseline as well, I
Speaker 5: think that's a rather interesting development.
Speaker 2: Trinckage, as Yeah Front might say.
Speaker 5: Look at this, Non college white voters make up forty
Speaker 5: percent of the electorate. That's more than college whites at
Speaker 5: twenty nine percent, all other groups voters of color at
Speaker 5: twenty eight percent. So this is something that we've seen
Speaker 5: throughout the board, right, which is that Donald Trump is
Speaker 5: making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller
Speaker 5: percentage of the electorate while he's losing a little bit,
Speaker 5: but these groups that he's losing a little bit of
Speaker 5: make up a much large that's your portion of the electorate.
Speaker 5: But more than that, you know, we're talking about the
Speaker 5: USFA where they make up forty percent. Why don't you
Speaker 5: go to those key Great Lake battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Speaker 5: They have outsized import in those Great Lake battleground states.
Speaker 5: Non college white voters. Look at this, they make up
Speaker 5: the slim majority of voters at fifty one percent, way
Speaker 5: more than college whites at thirty percent, way more than
Speaker 5: all other voters at sixteen percent. So if you're seeing
Speaker 5: movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non college whites,
Speaker 5: that could be a very big development.
Speaker 6: John.
Speaker 2: That is the key point is that if there is
Speaker 2: movement there, even if it's just a little bit, because
Speaker 2: there are so many non college whites, and specifically so
Speaker 2: many non college whites in those blue wall states, it
Speaker 2: is a problem. You know, I always try and remind
Speaker 2: people the median voter in the United States is a
Speaker 2: fifty year old white dude and or woman who did
Speaker 2: not go to college. So that is the whole ball game.
Speaker 2: That's where everything is now. The reason we lay that
Speaker 2: out is because that could either be two things, one
Speaker 2: genuine movement, or it could be the source of poling miss,
Speaker 2: just like it was in twenty sixteen. So Amy Walter
Speaker 2: over at Cook Political put this out. Let's put this
Speaker 2: on the screen, please, She says, I've been thinking about
Speaker 2: this a lot. If there is a surprise on election night,
Speaker 2: it is that Trump does better among white non college
Speaker 2: than polls suggest, which would likely flip the blue wall.
Speaker 2: So this really is a choose your own adventure of
Speaker 2: where things are, because it really I mean that if
Speaker 2: what Harry laid out is accurate, Trump very well could
Speaker 2: lose because look, yeah it's great to be up by
Speaker 2: ten percent amongst black voters, but you know Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Yeah,
Speaker 2: there's some black people, not a lot. There's way more whites.
Speaker 2: So if they even move a little bit in the
Speaker 2: Kamala direction, boom, He's going to lose. Men, if we
Speaker 2: think about it in terms of a MISS, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. My bias is the mys territory, Like,
Speaker 2: what evidence do we have that these non college educated
Speaker 2: whites are not going more in the Trump direction white
Speaker 2: college You know, we can talk about that. Yeah, all
Speaker 2: day long. I guess the only answer would be that
Speaker 2: these would be women who are voting on the issue
Speaker 2: of abortion. That's the only way I could see this
Speaker 2: theory playing it well.
Speaker 1: I think the other evidence for it is the fact
Speaker 1: that he did actually lose a couple points among white
Speaker 1: non college educative voters between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: So if that's the trend line and that has continued
Speaker 1: and perhaps, as you're pointing out, been exacerbated by Roe
Speaker 1: versus weight among women, wouldn't it be crazy if the
Speaker 1: story of this election is that Donald Trump picks up
Speaker 1: significant ground with black and brown voters and loses the
Speaker 1: election because it.
Speaker 2: Was kind of a story twenty twelve white votes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it actually a little bit, So it would not
Speaker 3: be that shocking.
Speaker 1: And you know, we all have to check our kind
Speaker 1: of biases and caricatures of different electorates at the door.
Speaker 1: You know, this idea that the white working class is
Speaker 1: just like mindlessly in support of Trump, and that's that is,
Speaker 1: you know, as caricaturist as views of other temographic groups. However,
Speaker 1: to your point, Soccer, I was reading, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: just like reading every bit of data analysis that I
Speaker 1: possibly can about what direction the polls may move in
Speaker 1: and how they may be off, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Nate con has a new analysis out at The New
Speaker 1: York Times of two different theories of the polling misses
Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and then you know
Speaker 1: what happened in twenty twenty two. One of them is
Speaker 1: what he calls the unified theory of polling miss which
Speaker 1: is effectively that when Trump's on the ballot and he's
Speaker 1: driving super high turnout and all these infrequent voters come out,
Speaker 1: it's just impossible for pollsters to be able to really
Speaker 1: get an accurate portrait of the electorate. White not in
Speaker 1: college educated voters would be an.
Speaker 3: Important part of that.
Speaker 1: You just even when you're correcting for you know, education
Speaker 1: levels and trying to adjust as best you can, you
Speaker 1: just can't get people who have not voted in the past,
Speaker 1: who you know are not all that politically engaged on
Speaker 1: the phone to accurately reflect in your survey. And those
Speaker 1: people tend to go more for Donald Trump than other candidates.
Speaker 1: If that's the reason for the polling miss in twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty. Then that would indicate that the
Speaker 1: polls are probably once again understating Donald Trump's support. Very possible.
Speaker 1: The other explanation is, I think he calls it like
Speaker 1: the patchwork theory, where the idea goes that in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: the myths was because you didn't have polsters waiting in education,
Speaker 1: that clearly was a big problem for them. Once you
Speaker 1: waited in education after the fact, that really made those
Speaker 1: polls a lot more accurate. So that's what happened in
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and then in twenty twenty you had the
Speaker 1: pandemic and this concept of like white liberals, college educated
Speaker 1: liberals at home board isolated. You had a partisan difference
Speaker 1: between how people responded to the pandemic, and there's significant
Speaker 1: evidence that that is the reason for a significant part
Speaker 1: of the miss in twenty twenty. So if that's the case,
Speaker 1: then that was kind of a one off.
Speaker 3: Pollsters have adjusted.
Speaker 1: It's possible because you saw in twenty twenty two the
Speaker 1: miscg go the other way that some of the ways
Speaker 1: that the pollsters have adjusted could even be overstating Trump
Speaker 1: support this time around. So those are two of the
Speaker 1: possibilities of what's going on. And of course the third
Speaker 1: possibility is that it's something else entirely that you know,
Speaker 1: could create god knows what in terms of polling era
Speaker 1: this time around, and obviously, with the poles as close
Speaker 1: as they've been, a little bit of the polls could
Speaker 1: be accurate within the margin of error and still completely
Speaker 1: missed a sweet for Trump or a sweet for Kamala.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think any of these scenarios is
Speaker 1: really plausible.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, let's put that on the screen just again to
Speaker 2: put give it out there and what it all looks like.
Speaker 2: So here you have this was Washington Post amongst likely voters,
Speaker 2: and they went state by state. Georgia they have it
Speaker 2: Harris fifty one forty seven. Keep in mind, that's pretty
Speaker 2: different from a lot of the other stuff. Ither Wisconsin
Speaker 2: they had at fifty forty seven for Harris, Michigan forty
Speaker 2: nine forty seven, Pennsylvania forty nine, forty seven, Nevada forty
Speaker 2: eight forty eight, tiedes Ship, Nevada, more Tide, North Carolina
Speaker 2: they had Trump up by three. Arizona they had at
Speaker 2: forty nine forty six. I would say that's in general
Speaker 2: a pretty bullish poll right there for Kamala general across them,
Speaker 2: how much is it real? When you add it to
Speaker 2: the averages, it kind of nets out a little bit.
Speaker 2: That's what we saw in terms of the Nate Silver
Speaker 2: analysis that I looked at just yesterday where he incorporated
Speaker 2: those in. But what he keeps talking about is a
Speaker 2: tightening of the nationals and a tightening of the national
Speaker 2: in general. Not really good for her. So it really,
Speaker 2: like you said, in terms of the choose your own
Speaker 2: adventure for where the polling miss and all of that
Speaker 2: will look like, let's put these up there because these
Speaker 2: are potentially a little bit more useful when it's not
Speaker 2: about candidates and instead it's about views of the economy.
Speaker 2: So when we look at the overall view of the economy,
Speaker 2: there has been a significant rise from October twenty twenty
Speaker 2: three to October twenty twenty four of whether the economy
Speaker 2: is good or bad. Now keep in mind you still
Speaker 2: it's only thirty eight percent sixty two percent, So sixty
Speaker 2: two percent of people still say it's bad used to
Speaker 2: be seventy three amongst Democrats, it's actually a majority sixty
Speaker 2: one percent the economy is good thirty nine percent the
Speaker 2: economy is bad. Independent though, that's a troubling number for
Speaker 2: her because you've got independence only twenty eight percent saying
Speaker 2: the economy is good, seventy two percent bad, and then
Speaker 2: thirteen percent Republicans saying good eighty five percent bad. So again,
Speaker 2: there has been major movement from where things were, let's say,
Speaker 2: in October twenty twenty one, October twenty twenty three, but
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four that in general, it does look
Speaker 2: like the Independents are much more coalescing around the idea
Speaker 2: that the economy is or the independence and specifically are
Speaker 2: still staying in the economy is bad. Now, of course
Speaker 2: there has been some movement. It does raise the quest's.
Speaker 1: Worth pointing out that in October twenty twenty two, just
Speaker 1: before the midterms, use it when Democrats did pretty well,
Speaker 1: views of the economy were significantly worse than they are now.
Speaker 2: So yeah, Corrollary to this is you have to believe
Speaker 2: for this to be impactful, that this will be in
Speaker 2: economy election, and look, we have very recent evidence to
Speaker 2: say that that is not the case. Let's go to
Speaker 2: the next place, because that's where things could get a
Speaker 2: little bit more interesting. So I'll just read here the
Speaker 2: division on whether Harris or Trump is trusted to handle
Speaker 2: many issues, and this is going to explain a lot
Speaker 2: of why different campaigns are doing what they are doing
Speaker 2: so right now, Abortion policy is the single best issue
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. Fifty one percent say they trust Kamala,
Speaker 2: only twenty eight percent say Trump. Some thirteen percent say neither.
Speaker 2: Election integrity aka stop the steal. You've got forty eight
Speaker 2: percent there for Kamala, only twenty eight percent for Trump.
Speaker 2: Climate change you have forty seven percent for Kamala, twenty
Speaker 2: one percent for Trump. But now this is where things
Speaker 2: are starting to get interesting. Taxes on the middle class.
Speaker 2: Here you have Kamala actually edging Trump out. You have
Speaker 2: forty six thirty six natural disaster ly forty four to
Speaker 2: thirty three jobs in unemployment. This was the most interesting
Speaker 2: one of all of them. This is effectively a net tie.
Speaker 2: It has forty three percent Kamala, forty one percent for
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. That was traditionally one of his strongest issues.
Speaker 2: The cost of housing, they have forty two percent Kamala
Speaker 2: at thirty seven percent Trump. We're gonna do a story
Speaker 2: on Thursday about that. In the Sun Belt, how that's
Speaker 2: informing a lot of things here where you see some
Speaker 2: Trump edge, cost of groceries and gas forty percent for Harris,
Speaker 2: forty two percent for Trump, Immigration one of Kamala's worst issues,
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent, forty five percent for Trump. And then
Speaker 2: actually this might be the most interesting. We're gonna talk
Speaker 2: a lot about this in a little bit situation in
Speaker 2: the Middle East only thirty five percent Kamala thirty nine
Speaker 2: percent Trump. To be fair, there's a big neither the
Speaker 2: category there, but is the worst category actually for Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris in that entire thing. Now, a lot of people,
Speaker 2: I would say, the vast, vast majority of Americans are
Speaker 2: not going to vote quote on the situation in the
Speaker 2: Middle East, but there could be enough. And we're going
Speaker 2: to talk to you about those swing state undecided voters.
Speaker 2: Who those people are. To them, it matters a lot
Speaker 2: and for them, their views on Gaza are very important
Speaker 2: to that situation in the Middle East question, which is
Speaker 2: super interesting from the survey analysis that we've been looking at.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we've been talking about yesterday we covered for
Speaker 1: premiums in this will post later in the week for everybody.
Speaker 1: The way that these campaigns have shifted their ad dollars
Speaker 1: down the stretch. The Kamala Harris team is really pouring
Speaker 1: their money in two buckets. One is a contrast message
Speaker 1: on taxes, saying Trump is for the billionaires, We're going
Speaker 1: to cut taxes for the middle class, for the working class.
Speaker 1: And you know, if this poll is to believe be believed,
Speaker 1: it seems like that relent relentless messaging regarding taxes and
Speaker 1: economic issues is paying off for Kamala Harris because she's
Speaker 1: closed that gap and in certain instances is even beating
Speaker 1: Trump on things like cost of housing and other you know,
Speaker 1: who's going to be better for taxes on the middle class,
Speaker 1: et cetera. Meanwhile, you see Trump really leaning into cultural
Speaker 1: issues in particular, running huge amounts dollar amounts of ads
Speaker 1: on trans issues specifically. And you know, it's fascinating to
Speaker 1: me because I think the two campaigns have very different
Speaker 1: theories about who they can still persuade, who they can
Speaker 1: still turn out. But I will say, you know, if
Speaker 1: the shoe was on the other foot and it was
Speaker 1: Democrats who were just like running obsessively on some sort
Speaker 1: of like niche culture war issue, I would be like,
Speaker 1: what is wrong with you? Like, what the hell are
Speaker 1: you doing? And so I do think there's a risk
Speaker 1: for Trump that he basically seeds the economic messaging and
Speaker 1: economic landscape to Kamala because he's still fixated on this
Speaker 1: one cultural issue that you know, the Republicans really tried
Speaker 1: to run on a similar landscape back in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two with how much success.
Speaker 2: I'll flip it around and I'll just say the only
Speaker 2: I think the case for it. I've increasingly been thinking about,
Speaker 2: like why, like what's the purpose, especially when I pair
Speaker 2: with the podcast strategy, is what this is a men's thing.
Speaker 2: It's mostly like, if we're all being honest, it's mostly
Speaker 2: men who are like really into the whole trans debate.
Speaker 2: I would count myself in that category. You know, for
Speaker 2: some reason pisses me off a lot more than my wife,
Speaker 2: right or anybody else. I could. There's probably deep psychological
Speaker 2: reasons and all that for that, but we'll put that
Speaker 2: all to the side and we'll just say, if I
Speaker 2: had to guess, that's probably why. And if you specifically
Speaker 2: think about the Internet, Internet politics and all that, trans
Speaker 2: is one of the biggest issues that is out there.
Speaker 2: I'm talking Internet specifically.
Speaker 3: This is sere.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean clearly they are betting on that.
Speaker 1: No.
Speaker 2: And actually, for example, we don't have time for this
Speaker 2: because it literally just came out. But the massive gender
Speaker 2: gap I'm looking at right now. So the final the
Speaker 2: final AJAC what was that Atlanta Journal constitutional pole just
Speaker 2: came out of Georgia literally just dropped a few minutes ago,
Speaker 2: and they have a Trump plus thirty one among men
Speaker 2: and Harris plus eighteen women. So it's a fifty point
Speaker 2: spread between the two candidates, the biggest gap in gender
Speaker 2: than the history of the AJAC poll. And they have
Speaker 2: some undecided, mostly amongst black men. Actually, if you look
Speaker 2: at it, so you've got seventeen point six percent of
Speaker 2: the black voters they're in the AJAC pole that are
Speaker 2: completely undecided. And I mean that's look, you look at
Speaker 2: a couple of ways, I would say it's generally bad
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. And so I mean, look, you know,
Speaker 2: it doesn't take a genius to look at some cross
Speaker 2: tabs about how Black Democrats specifically have always been very
Speaker 2: culturally out of step with the way that the National
Speaker 2: Democratic Party and elites are. And so that's the context
Speaker 2: where I think it does make sense and actually, now
Speaker 2: that we put this, we're about to show a clip
Speaker 2: here Trump was talking about this issue actually in a
Speaker 2: black barbershop in the Bronx. That really could be why
Speaker 2: let's take a listen to that. This was from a
Speaker 2: couple of days ago. A five year old sons in
Speaker 2: public schools.
Speaker 4: Right now, I have a lot of people asking me
Speaker 4: questions as far as the failing school systems that we
Speaker 4: have here in the.
Speaker 6: Bronx, what are we going failing?
Speaker 7: What are we going to do.
Speaker 6: To improve that in our school system?
Speaker 4: So we're moving them back from Washington, where you have
Speaker 4: people that don't care about New York. Frankly, you know,
Speaker 4: in Washington, I don't know if you haven't noticed. Les
Speaker 4: you got Department of Education, Department of Education. You've got
Speaker 4: half the buildings of Department of Education.
Speaker 2: I never saw.
Speaker 4: You don't need any of them.
Speaker 8: You know.
Speaker 4: I want one person and a secretary to just make
Speaker 4: sure they're teaching English. Okay, give it a little English. Okay,
Speaker 4: I'd say reading, writing, and arithmetic. No transgender, no operations.
Speaker 4: You know, they take your kid. There are some places
Speaker 4: your boy leaves the school comes back a girl, okay,
Speaker 4: without parental consent what is that all about. That's like,
Speaker 4: that's when they talk about a threat to democracy.
Speaker 7: They're a threat.
Speaker 4: Could you imagine without parental consent? At first, when I
Speaker 4: was told that was actually happening, I said, you know,
Speaker 4: it's an exaggeration. No, it happens.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that in the context of all that,
Speaker 2: I think it's what makes the most sense. I could
Speaker 2: be wrong, right, I mean, at the same time, we've
Speaker 2: seen some pressure from some swing state Democrats to respond
Speaker 2: to this shared Brown was getting hit by it hard
Speaker 2: by Bernie Morino. He felt the need to respond and
Speaker 2: be like, no, I don't believe we should have a
Speaker 2: man and women's sports. Colin all Read in the state
Speaker 2: of Texas had a similar thing. That's a little bit
Speaker 2: different because it's Texas. But I took the Brown one
Speaker 2: to be a lot more noteworthy to me because it's
Speaker 2: a genuine like already in a Redish state. Clearly, he
Speaker 2: felt the need that he needs to respond, even though
Speaker 2: some of his internal polls have him up by six
Speaker 2: Moreno thinks he's up by two. Clearly, it's a bit
Speaker 2: of a toss up over there. So I don't know. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I have no idea it could be like twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: or it actually could be genuinely impactful.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I'm just trying to put
Speaker 1: the shoe on the other foot. Like if Kama got
Speaker 1: asked a question about failing schools, where clearly the context
Speaker 1: of the question is not about like gender ideology, it's about, hey,
Speaker 1: my kids aren't getting the education that is preparing them
Speaker 1: for success in the world, and she pivoted to talk
Speaker 1: about like transgender bathrooms or something. I would be like,
Speaker 1: what is wrong with you? Like that is an insane
Speaker 1: direction to take this in And you are not at
Speaker 1: all meeting this voter where they are. You are not
Speaker 1: at all responding to the concerns there.
Speaker 3: And so I don't know.
Speaker 1: I know they're putting a lot of stock into the
Speaker 1: podcast strategy, and maybe it'll pay off, you know, especially
Speaker 1: because in a presidential election turnout is going to be high.
Speaker 3: You are going to have.
Speaker 1: Some people who are less frequent voters. But I just
Speaker 1: have to look back at the candidates who have been
Speaker 1: like the big podcast world candidates before, and every one
Speaker 1: of them has failed. I mean, DeSantis was big in
Speaker 1: the podcast world, vivik Ramaswami, big in the podcast world,
Speaker 1: Tulsey Gabbard big in the podcast world, Andrew Yang big
Speaker 1: in the podcast world. And I just haven't seen evidence
Speaker 1: that that is a group of people who is really
Speaker 1: turning out to vote, that is really, you know.
Speaker 3: A coalition of political power.
Speaker 1: And so I'm skeptical, and I would be skeptical, like
Speaker 1: I said, if I saw Democrats leaning into like a
Speaker 1: niche culture war issue when you have so many undecided voters,
Speaker 1: who can I mean, the overwhelmingly voters men, women, et
Speaker 1: cetera say the economy is my number one issue. That
Speaker 1: is what I cared the most about. And you see
Speaker 1: these issue numbers where Trump, who's always dominated on who
Speaker 1: you trust to handle the economy, is slipping and slipping
Speaker 1: and slipping and losing ground to Kamala Harris, even at
Speaker 1: a time when you know she's part of the administration
Speaker 1: people are upset about the economy. To me, it seems
Speaker 1: like a missed opportunity for him to really focus in
Speaker 1: on those bread and butter issues and relentlessly remind people
Speaker 1: of like, weren't things better under my administration? I'm going
Speaker 1: to deliver for you, lean into some of the things
Speaker 1: that he's proposed, you know, the no taxes on tips
Speaker 1: and other of his policy. I do all the Social
Speaker 1: Security thing is a little bit of a mess because
Speaker 1: it would probably bankrupt the fund and people would end
Speaker 1: up with.
Speaker 3: Cuts of their benefits.
Speaker 1: But some of these things sound really good and sound
Speaker 1: populous that he could lean into that he'll just like
Speaker 1: throw out once and then you never hear about again.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Look, I don't disagree. I would like for things to
Speaker 2: be that way. People say they vote on the economy,
Speaker 2: what happened in twenty twenty two, People say that they
Speaker 2: vote on X, Y and z. They don't do that.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just in terms of what really drives
Speaker 2: people out is a very it is an alchemist story.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it seems like in twenty twenty, I mean
Speaker 1: I do think that's part of why Trump was able
Speaker 1: to out. Now he's still lost, yeah, but he made
Speaker 1: up ground. I mean that's a big part of why
Speaker 1: those Latino voters in the Rio Grand Valley for example,
Speaker 1: were like, you know, I got a check with his
Speaker 1: name on it, and that seem pretty cool to me.
Speaker 2: They say that, but then what are the candidates who
Speaker 2: have run after Trump, who have won in that Valley
Speaker 2: run on They didn't run on the economy, they ran
Speaker 2: on immigration, they ran on culture. So what's the truth?
Speaker 2: You know, it's one of those where and look, I'm
Speaker 2: not putting people down. I get it. I don't really
Speaker 2: know why I vote. I don't really know why a
Speaker 2: lot of people vote. But in terms of self identification,
Speaker 2: I mean, any psychologists will tell you this. Anybody who's like,
Speaker 2: this is why I did X, Y and Z, it's
Speaker 2: very rarely the answer. It's probably more interesting to say
Speaker 2: this is why they think they did it. But the
Speaker 2: truth is is, if you look at the performance a
Speaker 2: lot of those places, most of it is on culture
Speaker 2: and on immigration. So I've really come to that. If
Speaker 2: you look at California, if you look at the movement
Speaker 2: in New York, California and elsewhere specifically amongst Latino voters
Speaker 2: and others. Sure, economy is a big part of it,
Speaker 2: but theory of the economy and kind of culture around,
Speaker 2: like how people don't even talk about certain issues, seems
Speaker 2: equally as important in terms of orientation as well. So
Speaker 2: like when I look at that Georgia number, and I'm
Speaker 2: looking at a fifty two point spread between men and women,
Speaker 2: that's not economic. I mean, sure it's part of it,
Speaker 2: but it's a lot of it is theory. I mean
Speaker 2: it gets to the barstool. The conservative theory I put
Speaker 2: out before about a very libertarian like let me do
Speaker 2: whatever I want to do. I mean, that's that's a
Speaker 2: frontier mindset. It's baked into the American story. I think
Speaker 2: that is probably what captures it more than anything. But
Speaker 2: I mean, if you really look at like the nitty
Speaker 2: gritty of like people who are like talking about like
Speaker 2: the school issue. The guy know, again, no offense, but
Speaker 2: you live in the Bronx, that's a New York that
Speaker 2: is a New York local and state issue. Over ninety
Speaker 2: percent the Department of Education. Probably the only thing that
Speaker 2: can really affect is funding and actually, yeah Title nine
Speaker 2: or whatever trans stuff. That's about it if you really
Speaker 2: want to look at it. So in terms of like
Speaker 2: what they're thinking and how they're going to the ballot box,
Speaker 2: there's a lot culture just seems to be ruling the day.
Speaker 1: But we saw in twenty twenty two they ran a
Speaker 1: lot of this stuff and it didn't work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, Pierson was huge and like that, but
Speaker 2: that's a counter that's almost a confirmation of what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: The economy could be terrible in twenty twenty two, which
Speaker 2: objectively it was, and people which independence all came out
Speaker 2: for Democrats on the issue of abortion. They're trying to
Speaker 2: recreate that magic around this time if again, if I
Speaker 2: had to guess, it really is to try and widen
Speaker 2: again gender gap as much as possible.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure that is their theory. I just think
Speaker 1: it's a bad theory. I just think that it's you know,
Speaker 1: it's sort of fail. It failed in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: not only at the like you know, federal level, but
Speaker 1: there was a whole conservative effort to stack a bunch
Speaker 1: of school boards with people who were super anti trans
Speaker 1: and that didn't really that didn't succeed either.
Speaker 3: Even when you were talking just about the local level.
Speaker 1: They had a lot of high profile failures in trying
Speaker 1: to stack these school boards as well. So, you know,
Speaker 1: even within the Republican primary context, like up until recently,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump wasn't re talking about these is. We noted
Speaker 1: that he really wasn't talking much about these issues. It
Speaker 1: was Ron DeSantis and others who leaned into it super hard,
Speaker 1: and even in a Republican primary context, it didn't end
Speaker 1: up winning the day, so I'm just skeptical. I think
Speaker 1: he's his strongest issue has always been the economy, and
Speaker 1: that he's letting her get an edge on that issue
Speaker 1: I think creates a real vulnerability for him with you know,
Speaker 1: people who are late deciders, who are not super politically engaged,
Speaker 1: who are just you know, may have some fond memories
Speaker 1: of the Trump administration in that era for them economically,
Speaker 1: and it seems to me like he's not doing what
Speaker 1: he should.
Speaker 3: To capitalize on it.
Speaker 1: And like I said, I just know if it was
Speaker 1: the Democrats running the same strategy, I would be like,
Speaker 1: you're idiots, Like what is wrong with you talk to
Speaker 1: voters about the things they are actually actually care about.
Speaker 1: You know, if you ask voters their list of top issues,
Speaker 1: this doesn't rank anywhere in them. And just to go
Speaker 1: back really quick to like the question itself, you know,
Speaker 1: I get that obviously most of the school decisions are
Speaker 1: you know, state and local funding issues. But what this
Speaker 1: person's really asking about is like, how is my kid going.
Speaker 3: To fare in this world? Sure, and if you're.
Speaker 1: An effective politician, like you don't necessarily respond directly to
Speaker 1: a question that doesn't totally make sense in the federal context.
Speaker 3: What you want to.
Speaker 1: Speak to is what their hopes and fears that are
Speaker 1: being expressed in that question. And I don't think that.
Speaker 1: I don't think Trump at that moment not to make
Speaker 1: too much of it.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see if he loses, you'll be right. Okay. So,
Speaker 2: but if the gender gap is what I think it's
Speaker 2: going to be, and this certainly could be a part
Speaker 2: of it, and if, especially if that what we talked
Speaker 2: about at the very top of our show, if those
Speaker 2: white college or if those white non college and numbers
Speaker 2: do end up being incorrect, then I mean, clearly they
Speaker 2: had a theory and I think it was mostly the
Speaker 2: right one. Especially if they can run up the scoreboard
Speaker 2: for the popular vote, come within a point, maybe even
Speaker 2: one point five votes or one point five percent of
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, and then run it all the way up
Speaker 2: in all swing states, that's going to be very impactful
Speaker 2: for what that looks like. Okay, as you just said,
Speaker 2: Matt Karp joined us from what is it The Center
Speaker 2: of Working Class Center for.
Speaker 1: Working Class Politics. He's also professor at Princeton University and
Speaker 1: contributor editor or something like that to Jacobin Magazine. They
Speaker 1: did an in depth survey of voters in the state
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, and you know, really through a class lens,
Speaker 1: so they broke down the electorate into not just college
Speaker 1: and non college but also different economic income ranges and
Speaker 1: different occupations, so you could see which parts of the
Speaker 1: working class are going towards Donald Trump, which parts are
Speaker 1: going toward Kamal Harris. And then they tested a range
Speaker 1: of different potential messages from the Harris camp, some of
Speaker 1: which have been tried in various forms by the Harris camp,
Speaker 1: and then a couple that were sort of, you know,
Speaker 1: their formulation of how she could ramp things up on
Speaker 1: the economic front, to see which were most resonant with
Speaker 1: which groups of voters. Super fascinating results, So let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and get to that. Very excited to be joined
Speaker 1: this morning by a great longtime front of the show,
Speaker 1: Matt Carpo's with the Center for Working Class Politics and
Speaker 1: has some extra new, extraordinarily interesting new polling data to
Speaker 1: share with us.
Speaker 3: Matt, great to.
Speaker 6: See you, Cortina Man, Yeah, happy to be here. Guys.
Speaker 1: All right, so tell us what you are up to
Speaker 1: in the state of Pennsylvania in particular.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I mean just just zooming out nashally for second. First,
Speaker 9: you know, Kamala Harris is struggling with working class voters,
Speaker 9: you know, by the most sort of commonly available metric,
Speaker 9: you know, voters who don't have college degrees. She's down
Speaker 9: ten eleven points double digits in Pennsylvania. Specifically, she's down
Speaker 9: between seven and as many as eighteen points a Time
Speaker 9: survey found last month. This is the constituency is that
Speaker 9: she's most struggling to close the deal with Biden. Remember
Speaker 9: lost this group only by two to four points in
Speaker 9: twenty twenty.
Speaker 6: He made up some ground with working.
Speaker 9: Class voters with voters without college degrees from Hillary in
Speaker 9: twenty sixteen.
Speaker 6: So Kamala has you know, drawn even with.
Speaker 9: Trump and the polls, but she's still really behind with
Speaker 9: these working class voters. And so we ran a study
Speaker 9: in Pennsylvania and it was a regular poll and it showed,
Speaker 9: you know, like every other poll and neck and neck
Speaker 9: race there, it showed Kamala, you know, and.
Speaker 6: Trump close on with lots of demographic groups.
Speaker 9: But we ran something a little different alongside that poll,
Speaker 9: and we wanted to look at essentially the different kinds
Speaker 9: of messages that the Harris campaign is putting out, alongside
Speaker 9: a couple other sort of hypothetical messages that the campaign
Speaker 9: could put out. So we ran messages on a sort
Speaker 9: of a moderate opportunity economy message that she's been you know,
Speaker 9: hitting a lot in her in her rhetoric.
Speaker 6: We ran a message focused on abortion and Roe v. Wade.
Speaker 9: We ran a message based on the sort of Trump
Speaker 9: is a threat to democracy, Who's going to cancel the constitution?
Speaker 9: We ran about five different sort of versions of Kamala messages,
Speaker 9: and then we ran two messages that we'd written that
Speaker 9: we're not, you know, maybe not the sort of Bernie
Speaker 9: Sanders message I would dream up, you know, underneath my
Speaker 9: pillow every night. But there are stronger, tougher messages, you know,
Speaker 9: talking about Washington is billionaire run by billionaires, about needing
Speaker 9: to stand up to the corporations and price gouching some
Speaker 9: things that she said, but a lot stronger in tone on.
Speaker 6: The populist the populist sample.
Speaker 9: That we ran, and then we ran a more progressive
Speaker 9: economic message that married that populist tone to some policy
Speaker 9: hits like expanding medicare guaranteeing a job, ending offshoring, et cetera.
Speaker 9: You know, stuff again, stuff that's in her ballpark, but
Speaker 9: a little bit more aggressive than what she's done. And yeah,
Speaker 9: and the results showed that, you know, with Pennsylvania voters
Speaker 9: and specifically with independent voters and with working class voters,
Speaker 9: by a variety of measures, that these that the populist
Speaker 9: and the sort of economic focus message were the messages
Speaker 9: the things she's not saying essentially performed a lot stronger
Speaker 9: than the things she has been saying.
Speaker 1: And yeah, and while you're talking to let me go
Speaker 1: ahead and put those up on the screen while you
Speaker 1: can continue to explain this, because I do think we
Speaker 1: have this this chart that we can show of how
Speaker 1: the messaging performed visa VI Trump totally.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, I mean this is just a crude graph.
Speaker 9: We're still waiting to get the final report together that
Speaker 9: should come out very shortly, but essentially you can see
Speaker 9: that this populist message, which you know, complain that billionaires
Speaker 9: are getting richer, we need to stand up to the
Speaker 9: big corporations and the politicians in Washington that serve them,
Speaker 9: that didn't really focus in the way that Democrats often do,
Speaker 9: just on essentially populism as a part is an issue,
Speaker 9: you know, the Republicans and their rich friends, but actually
Speaker 9: sort of named the enemy as all big corporations and
Speaker 9: billionaires and didn't didn't put it in as just the
Speaker 9: billionaires on the other side, unlike our billionaires in parenthesis.
Speaker 9: And that message really outperformed every other one in the bag.
Speaker 9: And the second strongest message was the one that said,
Speaker 9: expand medicare and paid leave in a four doable childcare,
Speaker 9: stop price gouging, stop off shoring. They kind of threw
Speaker 9: some sort of policy goodies into the works alongside some
Speaker 9: of the populism.
Speaker 6: And it we were surprised to some extent.
Speaker 9: Not only did it outperform the sort of the democratic threat,
Speaker 9: you know, democracy under siege, we need to save the
Speaker 9: constitution message, but it also it also outperformed abortion, which
Speaker 9: you know is conventionally understood is the Democrats' strongest playing card.
Speaker 2: Well, let's go to the next one. Can we put
Speaker 2: the next graphic please up on the screen about the
Speaker 2: favorability rating, so you have there from the strong populace,
Speaker 2: how it outperformed everything from even progressive economics, modern economics
Speaker 2: is soft, etc. The democratic threat message being the one
Speaker 2: that there's been a lot of Kamala messaging on but
Speaker 2: you haven't even necessarily seen. You don't see it actually
Speaker 2: playing out even more interesting, you have it amongst independence.
Speaker 2: Can we put the next one please on the screen,
Speaker 2: because that arguably could be the most important. And you
Speaker 2: saw the same thing here where the economics strong populism message.
Speaker 2: Both of those two were really important for independence as
Speaker 2: opposed to any of the other stuff that they were testing.
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is favorability.
Speaker 9: So this is essentially like we we just to clarify
Speaker 9: how the study worked. We didn't just sort of put
Speaker 9: the messages in front of in front of our sample
Speaker 9: of voters as independent items. We actually put them in
Speaker 9: in a hedge ahead against under essentially Kamala under Kamala
Speaker 9: Harris's name, with Kamala Harris's characteristics, simulating a kind of
Speaker 9: ballot box scenario. And then we put Trump, and you know,
Speaker 9: we put the message against Trump, and we wrote a
Speaker 9: series of Trump messages also like the Harris messages, drawn
Speaker 9: from his own rhetoric, and so we have not just
Speaker 9: how much do they like the message which you saw
Speaker 9: there and you could see that they the voter Pennsylvania voters,
Speaker 9: especially the independent voters, were drawn towards the populace and
Speaker 9: the progressive messages, but they actually outperformed the Trump messages.
Speaker 9: So with independence, the populace message beat the Trump message
Speaker 9: by eight points, the abortion message only only one by three,
Speaker 9: and the democracy message lost by one.
Speaker 6: That's with the overall sorry, that's with overall voters.
Speaker 9: With independence, which is a tough tougher crowd, the populist
Speaker 9: and progressive economic message is one by about three, and
Speaker 9: the abortion of democracy message is actually lost to Trump
Speaker 9: messages by six and by eight or nine points. So
Speaker 9: with that real swing voter demographic, we saw significant splits
Speaker 9: the difference between winning and losing.
Speaker 3: Let's take a look also at G four.
Speaker 1: This is how blue collar voters respond to these various messages.
Speaker 3: Again, I mean it's kind of a similar.
Speaker 1: Similar landscape, only here the strong populism comes first, but
Speaker 1: then the moderate economic message, the whole opportunity economy framing,
Speaker 1: which I kind of hate, but they apparently like pretty
Speaker 1: well at the let land second, progressive economics land third.
Speaker 1: Put G five on the screen also because this looks
Speaker 1: at non college educated workers, so blue collar workers was
Speaker 1: the last one. These are workers who have high school
Speaker 1: degree or less. Strong populism wins than progressive economics than
Speaker 1: moderate economics. I just tell you, Matt, Like, the thing
Speaker 1: that makes me most skeptical of these results is just
Speaker 1: how closely is hues to my own, like preferred view
Speaker 1: of the world. I have to sort of check myself
Speaker 1: and I have to go back and say, like, you know,
Speaker 1: when we were going into twenty twenty two, and I,
Speaker 1: like many others, thought there was going to be a
Speaker 1: red wave, it's because Democrats were not talking about any.
Speaker 3: Of this stuff at all.
Speaker 1: Like, at least Kamala has sometimes talked about price gouging,
Speaker 1: She's running ads saying that Trump is for the billionaires
Speaker 1: and I'm for you. In twenty twenty two, they really
Speaker 1: didn't do any of that. It was all democracy and abortion,
Speaker 1: and guess what, it worked pretty well. So, you know,
Speaker 1: is it possible that even though when you test these
Speaker 1: messages like sort of the overall numbers or yes, they
Speaker 1: favor the economic message, maybe the abortion message is super
Speaker 1: motivating for people to turn out, and even though it's
Speaker 1: not the preferred message over all of them, it's the
Speaker 1: one that is the most intensely felt among a key
Speaker 1: demographic group, Like, how else do we explain what happened
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two when there was basically no economic
Speaker 1: messaging and the state of the economy was quite a
Speaker 1: significantly worse than it is right now at this point
Speaker 1: in time.
Speaker 9: Yeah, what troubles me there because I hear you, Crystal,
Speaker 9: and I feel the same way about like, wow, this
Speaker 9: is exactly what my prior said that there must be
Speaker 9: something wrong with the survey. But look, what actually troubles
Speaker 9: me about the twenty twenty two analogy is that this
Speaker 9: is a different electorate. I mean, you have the midterm
Speaker 9: turnout is fifty percent or in a good year like
Speaker 9: low fifties. I forget what it was in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 9: but it was, you know, between fifty and fifty five percent.
Speaker 9: In a presidential year. The turnout is last time it
Speaker 9: was over sixty five percent. Maybe it's going to drop
Speaker 9: this year. I mean in some ways, Democrats maybe hoping
Speaker 9: it does. But you have a broader electorate. You have
Speaker 9: a sort of a less reliably less motivated electorate in
Speaker 9: terms of hardcore partisans on both sides. And yeah, I
Speaker 9: think abortion in democracy do bring out the democratic base.
Speaker 9: You saw, you know, looking into the we of our polls,
Speaker 9: you saw essentially with professional class voters because we did
Speaker 9: a we broke down the data not just by education levels,
Speaker 9: which is the most common proxy for class, and I'll
Speaker 9: defend that as as a way of thinking about class crudely,
Speaker 9: but we also we also looked at occupation and so, yeah,
Speaker 9: you saw the blue collar numbers, and we could contrast
Speaker 9: that with professional class voters, that is, voters in credential jobs.
Speaker 9: And every professional class voters liked every message. They actually
Speaker 9: liked the populist messages too, but they liked the abortion
Speaker 9: democracy message. They was all between plus four and plus
Speaker 9: seven points. They're all in for the Democrats no matter what.
Speaker 9: The question is, what about these disproportionately working class, lower
Speaker 9: propensity voters in places like Pennsylvania, What are they coming
Speaker 9: out to support or a potentially not coming out to oppose.
Speaker 9: What's going to bring them out, What's going to motivate
Speaker 9: them or have them lean one direction or another? And yeah,
Speaker 9: we found so again with a blue collar group that's
Speaker 9: defined by occupation, and it's one of the two working
Speaker 9: class groups we tested. We also tested sort of service
Speaker 9: clerical workers, which we consider broadly working class also, and
Speaker 9: that's the sort of essentially the democratic working class and
Speaker 9: the Republican working class. Right now, the blue collar group,
Speaker 9: manual workers, they're plus nineteen Trump, but even they were
Speaker 9: in the in positive territory on the populace message and
Speaker 9: close to positive on the progressive economic message, whereas the
Speaker 9: democracy message they were minus you know, fourteen or something.
Speaker 9: So it's really I really worry that she's preaching, you know,
Speaker 9: when she's she's you know, at these rallies and eerie
Speaker 9: pa and she's got Trump on the JumboTron, and she's
Speaker 9: talking about how unacceptable he is and how he's going
Speaker 9: to cancel Roe v. Wade and oppose the Constitution. She's
Speaker 9: she's that's a large number of voters are eating that
Speaker 9: up enough to win in twenty twenty two. Maybe, look,
Speaker 9: it's all close. Maybe it's enough in twenty twenty four. Personally,
Speaker 9: I hope so. But I don't think this is the
Speaker 9: most effective way to win the swing voters, the working
Speaker 9: class voters right now in these in these swing states.
Speaker 2: Well, you've got the data to back it up, and
Speaker 2: luckily we'll find out.
Speaker 1: Ye, Matt, I wanted to ask you one more question
Speaker 1: because you mentioned something that I think is interesting. You
Speaker 1: made this distinction between like the Democratic working class and
Speaker 1: the Republican working class, because in addition to testing these messages,
Speaker 1: you did test these different class groups and you got
Speaker 1: down to a much more granular level than I've seen
Speaker 1: in any other poll in terms of which class groups
Speaker 1: just based on income level are supporting which party and
Speaker 1: based on occupation, which was also super fascinating. Can you
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about that and some of the
Speaker 1: cleavages even within what we might define broadly as the
Speaker 1: working class.
Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, because you know the phrase, the keyword for
Speaker 9: us is it's not the Republican Party hasn't become the
Speaker 9: party of the working class.
Speaker 6: We talk about class de alignment, not realignment. Of course.
Speaker 9: You know, one might say as a sort of a
Speaker 9: left leaning group, we fear realignment because the Republicans seem
Speaker 9: to be pushing that direction. But right now the working
Speaker 9: class is really divided. It's not aligned with either party.
Speaker 9: And one cleavage. Some of the cleavages are around, you know,
Speaker 9: lines of gender in some cases race, but you know,
Speaker 9: a really vivid cleavage is in occupational category, so blue
Speaker 9: collar that is, manual workers, you know, truck drivers, manufacturers generally.
Speaker 9: You know, this is according to sociologists, people who work
Speaker 9: with their hands. They're you know, yeah, they're Trump plus
Speaker 9: nineteen in Pennsylvania right now in our in our sample,
Speaker 9: and they were, they were, They were in some ways
Speaker 9: the most the differences were most dramatic in terms of
Speaker 9: their enthusiasm or at least their their winability, I would
Speaker 9: say with the populist and with the economic messages. Whereas
Speaker 9: the service workers that's another large portion of the working class.
Speaker 6: Actually numerically it's it's a bit larger, and.
Speaker 9: It's not as dramatically pro democratic as the blue collar workers.
Speaker 6: It's. In our sample it was Harris plus six.
Speaker 9: But it's a broadly democratic leaning working working class group.
Speaker 9: These are you know, everything from clerical workers to cashiers
Speaker 9: to a sort of people who work in service occupations.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, I guess at the McDonald's, you know, entered
Speaker 9: the democratic working class there in Pa. But yeah, this
Speaker 9: group was. They also really liked the populist and the
Speaker 9: progressive rhetoric. They were populism plus twelve. They were also
Speaker 9: fine with abortion. That was a plus eight. This is
Speaker 9: a democratic group. The democracy message left them pretty cold too,
Speaker 9: though it was only it was like plus two, So
Speaker 9: I think even those voters, they're going to pull the
Speaker 9: lever for Kamala, a lot of them, But some of
Speaker 9: that enthusiasm we might see might be stronger for a
Speaker 9: more hard hitting economic message, and I do hope that
Speaker 9: the campaign leans into that. I mean, there's some evidence
Speaker 9: that they're spending ad money in that direction, and I
Speaker 9: do think that the sort of going after Trump is
Speaker 9: a billionaire is still the sharpest tool on the table
Speaker 9: that Democrats have never actually picked up and wielded with
Speaker 9: all its power.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well, potentially Elon must run around dangling a million dollar tecks.
Speaker 3: The were just man on the planet.
Speaker 1: Couldn't give the potential opening if they choose to take.
Speaker 3: It, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, Matt, tell people where they can find this
Speaker 1: the survey research, and also where they can follow your work.
Speaker 6: So yeah, the survey drops this week.
Speaker 9: I think it should be today, and it's at the
Speaker 9: Center for Workingclasspolitics dot org. It will also be featured
Speaker 9: on at the Jacobin website. My work is at Jacobin.
Speaker 9: I'm writing a column for Harper's Magazine lately, so you
Speaker 9: can find me and you can find me on Twitter too.
Speaker 3: I don't know that about Harper's update.
Speaker 1: My reading listen include that great to see you, my friend,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much.
Speaker 6: Too good to see you guys.
Speaker 2: The Cheney question, it's been a big one here for
Speaker 2: a long time. I want to put it up there.
Speaker 2: It's one of the great questions of all time. Right. Well,
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney hit the campaign trail hard for Kamala yesterday,
Speaker 2: three separate appearances in one day. They've been putting it
Speaker 2: out everywhere. They've been talking about it, She's been tweeting
Speaker 2: about it. She now is one of the most pre
Speaker 2: eminent Cheney or sorry, Kamala surrogates in the entire country.
Speaker 2: And it's not just us who have noticed this with
Speaker 2: a critical and a sad eye. Also John Stewart, who
Speaker 2: had the opportunity to confront Tim Waltz about it. Let's
Speaker 2: take a lesson the Cheney thing. Do we really have.
Speaker 3: To do that? Look?
Speaker 8: It goes broad in that look Bernie Sanders, Dick Cheney,
Speaker 8: Taylor Swift, No.
Speaker 3: No, no, no no no, having the Cheney's on board.
Speaker 6: Nah, you can't Dick Cheney or Taylor Swift.
Speaker 2: No, Dick, We're a big twidget We're a big country
Speaker 2: to Taylor Swift to get us to invade.
Speaker 6: No, yeah, no, don't.
Speaker 8: Don't you think though that and I do this.
Speaker 2: I believe this.
Speaker 8: Yeah, there is still a core group of folks out there,
Speaker 8: you know, your point being and not that. Don't tread
Speaker 8: on me the Reagan piece of this, the libertarian piece,
Speaker 8: but the constitutional piece.
Speaker 6: There are a lot of people out there. I think.
Speaker 8: I think Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney give permission to
Speaker 8: those folks who want to find a reason to do
Speaker 8: the right thing. It doesn't mean they agree with this.
Speaker 8: We're not going to take their foreign policy decisions and discussions,
Speaker 8: you know, and implement those. We're gonna take their honest Yes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I believe Tim's promised there, Crystal,
Speaker 2: I'll be honest with you.
Speaker 1: That was uh.
Speaker 2: I mean he's been saying that now for several Yeah,
Speaker 2: you weren't here the last time Ryan and I talked
Speaker 2: about it.
Speaker 6: But this is a hit.
Speaker 2: He's been saying this, uh, Amy Klobachar the whole like
Speaker 2: the that that line of Bernie Sanders, Taylor's absolutely everywhere.
Speaker 1: You know, here's the thing, the list Cheney thing would
Speaker 1: be more justifiable. Dick Cheney is like it really is,
Speaker 1: like we would take.
Speaker 3: The endorsement of Zaidan.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is one of, unambiguously, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: one of the most nefarious, evil doing characters in American
Speaker 1: political history period.
Speaker 3: So to you know, he's not a the.
Speaker 1: Campaign trail, but she said, like, we need to thank
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney for his service. They bring them up all
Speaker 1: the freaking time. It's like, what are we doing here?
Speaker 1: And you know, Tim Walls is laying out their theory
Speaker 1: of the case, which is like, okay, well, we think
Speaker 1: that there's some persuadable probably mostly you know, sort of
Speaker 1: moderate Republican women who we can still pull into the
Speaker 1: cam Now you may think they have are allready realigned,
Speaker 1: but that's actually not true. If you look at states
Speaker 1: like North Carolina in particular, Joe Biden underperformed among suburban
Speaker 1: women in North Carolina versus the rest of the country.
Speaker 1: So they feel like, yo, this is a large group.
Speaker 1: If we can pull one to two points more from
Speaker 1: this group, then that's going to make a big difference.
Speaker 1: But that assumes the only way you can reach this
Speaker 1: group is through odious characters like Liz Cheney or worse yet,
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney, which is like, this man had a thirteen
Speaker 1: percent approval rating when he left office. Literally, who do
Speaker 1: you think this is appealing to? Because I don't. I
Speaker 1: am not familiar with that person. But you know, they
Speaker 1: did a different approach that was way better. That shows
Speaker 1: you don't have to go down that path in order
Speaker 1: to show bipartisan support. They went out and campaigned with
Speaker 1: one hundred different Republicans. Some of these were like, you know,
Speaker 1: union workers who used to be pro Trump and are
Speaker 1: now pro Kamala and are up there speaking from the
Speaker 1: heart about why they think this is a better direction.
Speaker 1: That is a million times better approach than this Liz
Speaker 1: changing session. And the last thing I'll say about it
Speaker 1: is like, because I've agonized and thought a lot about this,
Speaker 1: is it would be one thing if she was doing
Speaker 1: her whole like bipartisan outreach thing, but then coupling it
Speaker 1: with that Tim Walls Minnesota agenda where they're you know,
Speaker 1: really emphasizing these bread and butter issues and going in
Speaker 1: one afternoon where you could name off the top of
Speaker 1: your head. Okay, here's the top three things that Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris is going to do once she's in office, because
Speaker 1: I think that's ultimately far more persuasive than Liz Chading.
Speaker 3: Well okay, but well there you know that that.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say they don't talk about anything,
Speaker 1: but who could actually name what her top priorities are.
Speaker 2: I mean, even if she could name what her actually
Speaker 2: in the piece that we're going to talk about on
Speaker 2: Thursday on housing in the sun Belt, the reporters would
Speaker 2: ask people in Nevada who are very they're moving right
Speaker 2: and predominantly they're very concerned about housing, and they're like, hey,
Speaker 2: have you heard of the housing the Kamala housing thing?
Speaker 2: They're like, what are you talking about? And then when
Speaker 2: they did hear about it, they're like, I don't believe
Speaker 2: she'll actually do it, So very little credibility. Yeah. Also,
Speaker 2: if she was campaigning with Cheney and with Bernie, I
Speaker 2: would be like, okay, that's a little bit different. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we'll see Bernie out there. No, that's let's put this
Speaker 2: up there on the screen.
Speaker 1: Bernie is wildly more popular than both Liz Cheney and certainly.
Speaker 2: Chick as evident put this on the screen. Harris hit
Speaker 2: three states with Liz Cheney. They're going all in on
Speaker 2: this stuff. For example, I mean, and also it's not
Speaker 2: just hitting the trail with Liz Cheney, it is now
Speaker 2: adopting the Cheney like basically rhetoric on foreign policy, which
Speaker 2: is absolutely insane. Obviously, and for evidence of that, let's
Speaker 2: go ahead and put B two please.
Speaker 7: Bringing the allies together is because they are fully aware
Speaker 7: of and remember to the congresswoman's point, World War two.
Speaker 7: Remember this concept of isolation. We were once there as
Speaker 7: a nation, and then Pearl Harbor happened. Let's remember recent history.
Speaker 7: Europe remembers it. Well, then when we got attacked Pearl Harbor,
Speaker 7: we jumped in. And it is because America jumped in
Speaker 7: that we were ultimately able.
Speaker 2: To win that war.
Speaker 7: And it should be a constant reminder to us. We
Speaker 7: have to remember history. That isolationism, which is exactly what
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is pushing. Pull out a NATO, abandon our friends.
Speaker 7: Isolationism is not insolation, It is not insulation. It will
Speaker 7: not insulate us from harm in terms of our national security.
Speaker 7: So I say that to emphasize a point that the
Speaker 7: congresswoman made, And the other point I'd make is also
Speaker 7: check out where he's been on how he thinks about
Speaker 7: America's military and service members.
Speaker 2: So we've got McCain, we've got oh, it's isolationists not
Speaker 2: to want to fight and die for Ukraine, which is
Speaker 2: really what they believe. And look, Cheney, I'm just gonna
Speaker 2: say it. I think she's scum, and I'll give you
Speaker 2: the real thing. It's not about January sixth. It's the
Speaker 2: fact that actually, Crystal she was a lifelong pro life conservative. Okay, whatever,
Speaker 2: I'm not pro life, that's fine. She though disavowed in
Speaker 2: this same campaign event her lifelong positions on pro life
Speaker 2: and said Dobbs Quent went too far in terms of
Speaker 2: the repeal of pro life. This woman disavowed her own
Speaker 2: sister to try and win a whisk of the Wyoming
Speaker 2: Senate seat over gay marriage. Now she's disavowing her lifelong
Speaker 2: positions when she was trying to fake being a Republican
Speaker 2: or whatever to try and win like basically voters for
Speaker 2: her entire career. But the only thing she won't disavow
Speaker 2: is this fake anti isolationist bullshit, not that anybody is
Speaker 2: an isolationist in this thing, or her lifelong position in
Speaker 2: support of her father and the war in Iraq. So
Speaker 2: it's like what principles do you actually have women?
Speaker 1: Actually, it's disgusting is Jadie Vance for abandoning his lifelong
Speaker 1: commitments and pro life issues to say like, let's leave
Speaker 1: it to the states.
Speaker 2: That's not no, that's not the same thing, because he's
Speaker 2: because he's supported he supported well, hold on a second,
Speaker 2: he supported a actual national abortion ban as far as
Speaker 2: I remember correct that enjoined a ticket where he's like, Okay,
Speaker 2: we're going to leave it to the States, but has
Speaker 2: never disavowed his position on being pro life. He can't
Speaker 2: paign for the Ohio But that's not the same.
Speaker 1: Well, Cheney's not saying that she's not pro life anymore.
Speaker 1: She's doing a similar it to Jadie Van. So saying
Speaker 1: my dabs went so far. Jade Vance said that jd
Speaker 1: Vance was in support of a national abortion ban and
Speaker 1: is now no longer in supportive national abortion ban and
Speaker 1: wants to leave it to the States.
Speaker 3: So I'm just.
Speaker 1: Saying, I'm not a big Liz Cheney fan, but I
Speaker 1: feel like there's a different standard being applied here, and
Speaker 1: I do genuinely think you know, she paid a major
Speaker 1: political price for bucking Donald Trump after January sixth, and
Speaker 1: I am not a Liz Cheney fan, but I think
Speaker 1: she deserves credit for that thing. In particular, going back
Speaker 1: to Kamala's comments with regard to you know, Trump's isolationism,
Speaker 1: it's just not even accurate. Like Trump is not an isolationist.
Speaker 1: This sort of plays into his false framing that he's
Speaker 1: like the anti war candidate, which is just not true.
Speaker 1: I mean, especially when it comes to Iran. We can
Speaker 1: hear his rhetoric. He's calling for Israel to strike Iranian
Speaker 1: nuclear sites. He pulled us out of the Iranian nuclear deal,
Speaker 1: he assassinated cost some Sola money, risking war. You know,
Speaker 1: his foreign policy record, There are areas of it where
Speaker 1: I definitely give him credit, but he stayed in Afghanistan
Speaker 1: and Joe Biden was the one who actually got us sound.
Speaker 1: So part of why I hate this framing is because, yeah,
Speaker 1: she's positioning the Democrats is like, you know, they're the
Speaker 1: party of hawks and Trump is the part of party
Speaker 1: of isolationism. It's just not even an accurate picture of reality.
Speaker 1: And then you know, to get to more of this,
Speaker 1: it's here you are in really dire straits with Muslim
Speaker 1: American voter, with Arab American voters, And I don't think
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of people who are going to
Speaker 1: be won over by a Liz Shady endorsement, but it
Speaker 1: definitely sends a message to a lot of voters who
Speaker 1: are disgusted with your policy in the Middle East about
Speaker 1: who has your ear and who you're listening to. You know,
Speaker 1: I still recall the fact that at the DNC they
Speaker 1: would not allow a Palestinian American on the stage, even
Speaker 1: one who was pro Kamala and wanted to make the
Speaker 1: case for why people should get on board with her campaign.
Speaker 1: The tent was big enough for Dick Cheney and certainly
Speaker 1: big enough for Taylor Swift, but it was not big
Speaker 1: enough for a Palestinia American. And you know, at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, maybe it ends up not mattering.
Speaker 1: Maybe they win enough of those white suburban women voters.
Speaker 1: That's their theory of the case, that moving a couple
Speaker 1: points of them into their column. They think that's doable,
Speaker 1: and they think that will be a game changer for them.
Speaker 1: But they've created tremendous risks on the other side, not
Speaker 1: just among Arab American voters, either among young voters, among
Speaker 1: a range of voters of color, and you know, I
Speaker 1: think the data at this point forson now.
Speaker 2: At the DNC, you know, just for that point, it's
Speaker 2: not even just about the Palata anything. Remember in the
Speaker 2: DNC platform that they disavowed the Iranian nuclear deal, and
Speaker 2: Kamala has now said that Iran is the greatest threat
Speaker 2: of the United States basis So okay, that's a little
Speaker 2: bit ridiculous to return to the Cheney thing.
Speaker 6: Though.
Speaker 2: One of the reasons that I think it is incredibly
Speaker 2: different is that age she's actually campaigning for a literal
Speaker 2: president who wants to codify Roe versus Wade.
Speaker 1: That.
Speaker 2: But two is that if you look at the stringent
Speaker 2: nature of her positions in the past, in which she
Speaker 2: was literally willing to disavow her own family members, it
Speaker 2: does tell me that war and commitment to whatever this
Speaker 2: fake democracy thing which happens to help war and the
Speaker 2: at least at the very least like help the neo
Speaker 2: conservative agenda, which is really what I think she cares
Speaker 2: the most about, is the pre eminent value to her.
Speaker 2: That is fine, I actually am fine with that, but
Speaker 2: you can't be talking and disavowing your own sister spend
Speaker 2: a lifelong representative of Wyoming basically campaigning for wanting to
Speaker 2: overturn Rovers's weight and exactly have the Dobbs decision and
Speaker 2: then reverse on a dime, just simply on the question
Speaker 2: of Trump like working within the confines of yeah, Jad
Speaker 2: as far as I understand, still probably believes in an
Speaker 2: actual national abortion band, doesn't believe it's politically feasible. Is
Speaker 2: with the candidate who says, yeah, we should leave it
Speaker 2: to the States, which is about as good as we're
Speaker 2: con get and is still personally pro life. I just
Speaker 2: think that's very different on those questions values, and especially
Speaker 2: in terms of the candidates and with what they're campaign
Speaker 2: for than what Liz Cheney has done given her own
Speaker 2: literal past, and I mean causing rips, not just with
Speaker 2: the sister with her own father, who, if I recall,
Speaker 2: came out and attacked her for her position on gay
Speaker 2: marriage in that Wyoming stenate race, which she lost, by
Speaker 2: the way, which is the best part of this entire thing.
Speaker 2: And I'm not just the one saying it's a lot
Speaker 2: of the pro life people are the ones who are
Speaker 2: the most upset. Again, I'm not even proluit, I don't
Speaker 2: just but it's more about saying again nothing.
Speaker 1: I feel that there is a different standard being a play.
Speaker 3: Jad E.
Speaker 1: Vance literally said previously that Trump was potentially Americus Hitler,
Speaker 1: and then when it served him in order to get
Speaker 1: a Senate seat, he changes tune.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: Colin Harris has shifted her positions. Trump has changed his
Speaker 1: positions on abortion a million times, and I don't hear
Speaker 1: you calling them scum.
Speaker 3: For doing so.
Speaker 2: It's different. For example, on Trump, I never I don't
Speaker 2: think anybody believes that Trump is genuinely pro life, or
Speaker 2: if you do, like I've got something to tell you.
Speaker 2: I think the Cheney's definitely positioned themselves in a very
Speaker 2: different direction on that. I mean Trump and the character
Speaker 2: question on Hitler and all that that's been nausey, that's
Speaker 2: been like litigated a million times. Either change his position conveniently,
Speaker 2: or he changes mind. I think he probably changed his mind.
Speaker 2: If you ask me, you're welcome to change or have
Speaker 2: a different opinion.
Speaker 1: I just don't see the difference, even specifically on the
Speaker 1: issue of abortion, between Jade Vance, who is deeply religious
Speaker 1: and Catholic, who five minutes ago was in support of
Speaker 1: a national abortion ban with basically no exceptions to Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a political reality. He's on a ticket where they
Speaker 1: realize abortion is a problem for him, so he has
Speaker 1: shifted his stance.
Speaker 3: Guess what.
Speaker 1: Liz Cheney is doing something very similar here and recognizes. Okay,
Speaker 1: if I'm going to be acceptable to the Democratic mainstream,
Speaker 1: I see how unpopular Dobbs has been. I need to
Speaker 1: at least say, like, Dobbs has gone too far. None
Speaker 1: of this I think is particularly principled. I'm just saying
Speaker 1: I know to say she's scummed for that. There are
Speaker 1: many other reasons why I might say that Liz Cheney
Speaker 1: is gone, but I don't necessarily if you're going to
Speaker 1: apply that standard in this instance, I would say, we have.
Speaker 2: To bring in the Sisters thing in from twenty thirteen,
Speaker 2: which I remember quite well for a lot of the
Speaker 2: liberal press agreed with me at that time for what
Speaker 2: that looked like. But then, in terms of Roe versus Wade,
Speaker 2: there's a big difference in supporting a candidate who's like,
Speaker 2: leave it to the States, which would effectively allow pro
Speaker 2: life states if they want to pass those things, as
Speaker 2: opposed to a Canada who wants to literally codify Roe
Speaker 2: versus Wade. Do you think abortion National.
Speaker 1: Do you think abortion is murder, which Jade Vance you know,
Speaker 1: previously did, Then it's murder whether it's being done in
Speaker 1: California or Mississippi or wherever. So in any case, there
Speaker 1: have been a lot of politicians who have conveniently shifted
Speaker 1: their position on the issue of abortion post obs because
Speaker 1: they recognize how wildly unpopular the previous position of the
Speaker 1: Republican Party was, and Liz Cheney happens to be among
Speaker 1: those people.
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit different, but I guess
Speaker 2: we'll just agree on that or disagree on that one.
Speaker 2: On the issue of Cheney, what do we have an
Speaker 2: interesting fissure where Trump is now trying to use the
Speaker 2: Cheney support to try and win over Muslim and Arab
Speaker 2: American voters. Let's put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: This is a tweet or truth, I guess you will
Speaker 2: call it. He says. Arab voters are very upset. Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris the worst vice president and history of the United States.
Speaker 2: Any low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a
Speaker 2: rock warhawk, Liz Cheney, who like her father, the man
Speaker 2: that pushed Bush to ridiculously goes to war in the
Speaker 2: Middle East, also wants to go to war with every
Speaker 2: Muslim country known to mankind. Remember Liz Cheney lost her
Speaker 2: congressional seat by the largest margin in history for sitting
Speaker 2: congress person. If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle
Speaker 2: East will spend the next four decades going up in flames.
Speaker 2: Your kids will be off to war, maybe even the
Speaker 2: Third World War, something that will never happen with President
Speaker 2: Donald J. Trump in charge. For our country's sake and
Speaker 2: for our kids, vote Trump for peace. Now that's the
Speaker 2: first time that I've seen something like that actually come out,
Speaker 2: and interestingly enough, it could be part of a real
Speaker 2: concerted strategy. Let's put B seven please up on the screen,
Speaker 2: because this came out last night and I was really
Speaker 2: interested in this quote. Trump holds edge with Arab Americans.
Speaker 2: According to a new Arab News Ugov poll, some forty
Speaker 2: five percent of respondents so they are more likely to
Speaker 2: vote for Trump, while forty three percent that they would
Speaker 2: cast their ballot for Kamala Harris. Obviously, that's within the
Speaker 2: margin of error, and they have Jill Stein at a
Speaker 2: six percent. Two percent say that they would decline to
Speaker 2: give their choice. But I think when you put those
Speaker 2: together on top of some New York Times analysis, Crystal
Speaker 2: that you found this really does show that within swing
Speaker 2: voters and around this question of Cheney, that there actually
Speaker 2: could be some organic pushback in the Arab American community
Speaker 2: around this and potentially enough to swing the state of Michigan. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, it's funny Trump's truth there.
Speaker 1: I seem to recall last election cycle him campaigning quite
Speaker 1: happily with Liz Cha, so you know, for him, Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: the only the only question that really matters at the
Speaker 1: end of the day is how you feel about Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Let's put V six up on the screen, though, because
Speaker 1: this explains where this true social came from, and you
Speaker 1: know why they are moving this direction of trying to
Speaker 1: make some sort of appeal to the Arab American community
Speaker 1: and some sort of pivot on gods.
Speaker 3: In particular.
Speaker 1: The Trump campaign's research, they write in this, found that
Speaker 1: up for Grab voters were about six times as likely
Speaker 1: as other battleground state voters who motivated by their views of.
Speaker 3: Israel's war in Gasa.
Speaker 1: The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely
Speaker 1: to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall, and
Speaker 1: were likely to be black about twenty five percent of
Speaker 1: undecided voters are black, according.
Speaker 3: To the Trump team.
Speaker 1: And these two things go together, because we've tracked that
Speaker 1: in the polling all along, African Americans have much higher
Speaker 1: support for for Palestine, which lower support in general for
Speaker 1: the US policy of unconditional support vis a vis Israel.
Speaker 1: And so, you know, some of us have been warning
Speaker 1: all along that this was a massive risk for Democrats,
Speaker 1: not just among Arab American voters, but among a much
Speaker 1: broader coalition. And this is what the Trump team has
Speaker 1: picked up on that in the fact, you have a real,
Speaker 1: you know, schism in the Democratic base primarily honestly between
Speaker 1: Democratic elites and the rest of the party, just judging
Speaker 1: by the polling. And so they're trying to you know,
Speaker 1: signal like you know, signal some sort of empathy or
Speaker 1: some sort of support or some sort of contrast with
Speaker 1: the Democrats here to try to pull off as many
Speaker 1: voters as they possibly can. You know, will it be successful,
Speaker 1: I don't know. But for Democrats to be losing Arab
Speaker 1: Americans in the state of Michigan is just utterly it's disgraceful.
Speaker 1: They did it to themselves. She did it to herself.
Speaker 1: This is the issue we showed you previously where she
Speaker 1: has the lowest approval rating from voters, and you have
Speaker 1: voters who desperately want to see her being different from
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, this is the issue where you can do it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, when you look at the polls, you know,
Speaker 1: there was a lot of conversation earlier in the cycle
Speaker 1: where it was like, oh, barely anybody even cares about
Speaker 1: Israel and Gaza. This is not that important to voters.
Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter where Common positions herself on this.
Speaker 1: But if it's important to a key group of swing
Speaker 1: voters in battleground states, then yeah, guess what, it ends
Speaker 1: up mattering a lot. So you know, if she ends
Speaker 1: up losing, which I think is possible because of her
Speaker 1: unconditional support for Biden's policy of supporting a genocide in
Speaker 1: the Gaza strip, they only have themselves to blame for
Speaker 1: going down in flames because what the way she has
Speaker 1: consistently stood by that policy has been deeply disappointing and
Speaker 1: utterly disgraceful.
Speaker 2: It's interesting too, if you look further in that Undecided research,
Speaker 2: they say that these people describe themselves as non ideological
Speaker 2: and then looking then at those issues that are going
Speaker 2: to push them the most, and they found that Israel
Speaker 2: Gaza is one of those where I mean again, to
Speaker 2: be one that is six times as likely as other
Speaker 2: battleground state voters to be moted by motivated by is
Speaker 2: pretty ridiculous considering I mean, Israel, God's Middle East in
Speaker 2: general usually at the bottom tier of most people's ranking
Speaker 2: if you look at the overall aggregate, even amongst young
Speaker 2: voters that we've seen before, but with this tiny slice
Speaker 2: and with the Arab Americans, we could be looking at
Speaker 2: a real thing. I mean, I'll be honest, I don't
Speaker 2: one hundred percent understand it, but it's clearly a real phenomenon.
Speaker 2: Because what is it we have that mayor of the
Speaker 2: Muslim majority town Amtrak, I forget exactly the day, but
Speaker 2: the guy doors Trump apparently Trump has a office that
Speaker 2: they opened there, which everybody in Michigan was like, why
Speaker 2: we you do this? But now I think we do
Speaker 2: know why about their micro targeting data for that, so
Speaker 2: it certainly is something.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 2: Again, like I said, the reason I don't particularly understand
Speaker 2: it is for all being honest, like Trump, you know,
Speaker 2: definitely is a lot more pro Israel than commonly, no
Speaker 2: doubt about it.
Speaker 1: First, and his coalition is more consistently pro Israel. So
Speaker 1: if even if he's just a creature of like you know,
Speaker 1: his supporters and donor network, he's going to end up
Speaker 1: in a much more pro Israel position.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So like for example, we have Michael Tracy pulled this out.
Speaker 2: This is from a more recent I think it was
Speaker 2: a town hall on Trump asked about Iran and nuclear
Speaker 2: facilities and whether Israel should be able to hit them.
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 10: They asked him, what do you think about what do you.
Speaker 6: Think about Iran?
Speaker 10: Would you hit around? And he goes, as long as
Speaker 10: they don't hit the nuclear stuff, that's the thing you
Speaker 10: want to hit, right, I said, I think he's got
Speaker 10: that one wrong. Is that the what you're supposed to hit?
Speaker 10: I mean, it's the biggest risk. We have nuclear weapons,
Speaker 10: the power of nuclear weapons, the power of weaponry. You know,
Speaker 10: I rebuilt the entire military jets, everything I built it,
Speaker 10: including nuclear and I hated to build the nuclear but
Speaker 10: I got to know firsthand the power of that stuff.
Speaker 10: And I'll tell you what.
Speaker 6: We have to be totally prepared. We have to be
Speaker 6: absolutely prepared.
Speaker 10: But when they asked him that question, the answer should
Speaker 10: have been hit the nuclear first and worry about the
Speaker 10: rest later.
Speaker 2: All right, So if we're all being honest here about
Speaker 2: what exactly that looks like. I mean, it's one of
Speaker 2: those where I didn't really want to like put this
Speaker 2: woman down yesterday, but we played that video of that
Speaker 2: what was it the side of the American voters and
Speaker 2: she's like, I'm voting for Trump to punish Kamala Harris,
Speaker 2: And I was like, look, I understand that, Like I'm
Speaker 2: not going to shame you, but if your ongoing concern
Speaker 2: is about that, I mean, Trump has shown literally no
Speaker 2: care whatsoever. Now listen, you know it's not my top priority,
Speaker 2: so whatever, But if that's your top priority, I don't
Speaker 2: get it, you know, in terms of like this is
Speaker 2: the most pro Saudi you know, pro like Golf Arab
Speaker 2: Emirates state president. Yeah, in modern history, the Saudi's and
Speaker 2: the Gulf have a real plan for Gaza. It's called
Speaker 2: they get to take it over and we get to
Speaker 2: fund it. I mean, if you support that, it's fine,
Speaker 2: you know, but I don't know, I don't understand. I
Speaker 2: don't know how you can be like the whole like
Speaker 2: genocide person and also vote for Donald Trump. Again, it's
Speaker 2: not my top priority, so it's not like something that
Speaker 2: keeps me up at night in terms of like, oh,
Speaker 2: how to agonize for my vote. But if it is,
Speaker 2: then you know, that's just one of those where I
Speaker 2: find myst Fine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it doesn't make any logical sense, bottom line.
Speaker 1: And he's consistently at this point been hitting Joe Biden
Speaker 1: from the right on him not doing enough to support
Speaker 1: Israel or another example of that.
Speaker 3: This is b five.
Speaker 1: He got asked a question about exactly this issue, and
Speaker 1: he says Biden's trying to hold Babe back, no evidence
Speaker 1: of that. He probably should be doing the opposite. Actually,
Speaker 1: let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 8: More than I think it makes it easier, I'm going
Speaker 8: to talk to Prime Minister Dan God about it.
Speaker 10: He's called me, Yes, he's called me.
Speaker 6: I have not spoken.
Speaker 2: I'm going to speak to it.
Speaker 3: Probably now you want to tell them.
Speaker 10: Well, look, you're doing a good job. Biden is trying
Speaker 10: to hold him back. Just so you understand, Biden is
Speaker 10: far superior to the to the VP. He's trying to
Speaker 10: hold him back and he probably should be doing the opposite.
Speaker 6: Actually, I'm glad.
Speaker 10: That BB decided to do what he had to do.
Speaker 6: But it's moving along pretty good. Everything's moving a lin.
Speaker 3: So there you go.
Speaker 1: As we pointed out yesterday, Sar, you flagged this, some
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of israelis.
Speaker 2: For Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: And one thing that I wanted to point out about
Speaker 1: the polling is there had previously been a poll showing
Speaker 1: Jill Stein leading among I believe it was our American
Speaker 1: voters in some of these insation I thank you, in
Speaker 1: several of the swing states. So this polling is really
Speaker 1: dissonant from that. So just to put an asterisk there.
Speaker 1: But the other thing I saw recently, I don't know
Speaker 1: if you saw this Aga, that there's been two separate
Speaker 1: polls that showed dyl Stein is now taking war from
Speaker 1: Donald Trump than from Kamala Harris. And if these survey
Speaker 1: results are correct, that would make some sense because if
Speaker 1: it's basically like Arab American voters have ruled out Kamala
Speaker 1: and now they're deciding between the other options, Jill Stein
Speaker 1: being one of them and Trump being the other one,
Speaker 1: it makes some kind of sense. So just who knows
Speaker 1: if that's accurate? Who knows if this poll is exactly accurate.
Speaker 1: But I think there's no doubt Kamala Harris has a
Speaker 1: massive issue with these voters. It's one hundred percent of
Speaker 1: her own making. And then the only other thing I'll
Speaker 1: say is with regard to Jill sin potentially taking more
Speaker 1: from Donald Trump, you know, just you have to have
Speaker 1: some humility about how all of these things are going
Speaker 1: to work out. It was considered written in stone that
Speaker 1: she would be more deaf frumental to the Democrats. And
Speaker 1: you know, voters are more complex beings than they're often
Speaker 1: given credit for, and so you know, it may turn
Speaker 1: out to be the case that she's more of an
Speaker 1: issue for the Republicans than for Gamala Harris, which would
Speaker 1: be kind of wild.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it would be crazy. How About she just gets
Speaker 2: to run and people can decide for themselves, you know,
Speaker 2: how about that? I think that probably works out the best.
Speaker 2: So in general, when we think about all of this,
Speaker 2: I do think it is pretty interesting. Why don't we
Speaker 2: put the last b eight please up on the screen.
Speaker 2: This was from it says the AP reported that sixty
Speaker 2: four percent of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Thirty five percent supported Trump, and in heavily Arab American
Speaker 2: counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little
Speaker 2: less than seventy percent. So just to underscore what the
Speaker 2: flip of all of this would look like, I mean,
Speaker 2: there is an open question how much of this is gaza.
Speaker 2: I mean, how many of these people are voting for
Speaker 2: Trump because of the economy or for something like that.
Speaker 2: It's very possible, right, as they correctly point out, it's
Speaker 2: not just Muslim voters. You've got a lot of Christians
Speaker 2: who are Arab American as well. They potentially could be
Speaker 2: voting on that. I mean, there's a lot of different
Speaker 2: reasons why people come to America and they vote, So
Speaker 2: the shift in that could be I mean, could be men, right,
Speaker 2: it could be cultural issues. There's a lot of different
Speaker 2: reasons for why people might shift in different directions. But nonetheless,
Speaker 2: it is certainly a major phenomenon.