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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: Of course we're going to leave the show once again

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Speaker 1: with new polling data. Yesterday we had a bunch of

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Speaker 1: polls that look pretty good for Trump. Today it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a different picture and interesting commentary from

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Speaker 1: Harry Eton, so I will take a look at that.

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Speaker 1: We also have an exclusive from the Center for Working

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Speaker 1: Class Politics. They have some new polling that really breaks

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Speaker 1: down how the working class is thinking about this election

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Speaker 1: in the state of Pennsylvania specifically. Really really recommend this

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Speaker 1: segment to you. We actually recorded it yesterday, so I

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Speaker 1: already know it's going to be fantastic. So you'd have

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Speaker 1: phone a tune in for that interesting from John's Stewart.

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Speaker 1: He confronted Tim Walls over their whole Liz and Dick

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Speaker 1: Cheney strategy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we'll talk to you about that.

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Speaker 1: Also, we're taking a look at Polymarket, which has been

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Speaker 1: really championed by a lot of Republicans, which has shown

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Speaker 1: Trump surging for a while now, could potentially be rigged,

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Speaker 1: so we'll dig into those details. Also got some new

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Speaker 1: allegations we wanted to cover about Diddy. Two other unnamed

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Speaker 1: celebrities also named in this or we don't have specific names,

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Speaker 1: but also alleged to have been involved in this criminal activity.

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Speaker 1: And we're taking a look at THEO vonn choking up

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Speaker 1: over thinking about what is being done to Gods's children

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Speaker 1: and CNN with in the running now for perhaps the

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Speaker 1: worst article written about this kind. I mean, it's just unimaginably.

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Speaker 2: You don't even believe it. I actually couldn't believe that

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Speaker 2: it was real until I read it, so very same.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I pulled it up. I was like, this can't

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Speaker 3: be right.

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Speaker 2: There's no way anyways, but you know they never stoop

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Speaker 2: to new Low So anyway, thank you to so much

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Speaker 2: to our premusbscribers. Who've been signing up. You guys got

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Speaker 2: access to that exclusive Logan interview yesterday. We're down the wire.

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Speaker 2: It is officially two weeks now to election day, which

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Speaker 2: is incredible. Go ahead and sign up at breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 2: Become a premium subscriber because you're going to get access

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Speaker 2: to our exclusive election predictions and all of that first

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Speaker 2: before they go public. So go ahead, take advantage of

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Speaker 2: breakingpoints dot com and you'll see it there.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: As Chrystal said, we've got polls really all over the

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Speaker 2: map one, so we're going to point in a couple

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Speaker 2: of different directions, both into where the polling error might

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Speaker 2: be and to where some potential good bullish news for

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Speaker 2: Kamala might be. Here, Harry Enton has aggregated a bunch

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Speaker 2: of polls and is starting to look at white working

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Speaker 2: class support for Donald Trump and where even though he

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Speaker 2: is winning, by not winning as much, could potentially lose

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Speaker 2: those blue Wall states. Here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 5: We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump's direction. So you would think his core group, his

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Speaker 5: base of support, would be doing the same, but in

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Speaker 5: fact it's moving a little bit away from him. So

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Speaker 5: this is Trump's margin with non college white voters. Unlike

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Speaker 5: most so voting blocks, this group is not moving towards me,

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Speaker 5: it's actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight

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Speaker 5: years ago, he won h buy thirty three. You go

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Speaker 5: back four years ago, he won him buy thirty one.

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Speaker 5: Now what we look is we see that in the

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Speaker 5: latest average of polls, he's only up by twenty seven. Now,

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Speaker 5: that may not seem like a lot, but given that

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Speaker 5: we're seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters

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Speaker 5: or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the

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Speaker 5: fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually

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Speaker 5: moving away from him, not just off of the twenty

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Speaker 5: sixteen baseline, but the twenty twenty baseline as well, I

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Speaker 5: think that's a rather interesting development.

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Speaker 2: Trinckage, as Yeah Front might say.

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Speaker 5: Look at this, Non college white voters make up forty

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Speaker 5: percent of the electorate. That's more than college whites at

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Speaker 5: twenty nine percent, all other groups voters of color at

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Speaker 5: twenty eight percent. So this is something that we've seen

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Speaker 5: throughout the board, right, which is that Donald Trump is

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Speaker 5: making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller

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Speaker 5: percentage of the electorate while he's losing a little bit,

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Speaker 5: but these groups that he's losing a little bit of

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Speaker 5: make up a much large that's your portion of the electorate.

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Speaker 5: But more than that, you know, we're talking about the

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Speaker 5: USFA where they make up forty percent. Why don't you

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Speaker 5: go to those key Great Lake battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

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Speaker 5: They have outsized import in those Great Lake battleground states.

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Speaker 5: Non college white voters. Look at this, they make up

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Speaker 5: the slim majority of voters at fifty one percent, way

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Speaker 5: more than college whites at thirty percent, way more than

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Speaker 5: all other voters at sixteen percent. So if you're seeing

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Speaker 5: movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non college whites,

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Speaker 5: that could be a very big development.

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Speaker 6: John.

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Speaker 2: That is the key point is that if there is

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Speaker 2: movement there, even if it's just a little bit, because

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Speaker 2: there are so many non college whites, and specifically so

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Speaker 2: many non college whites in those blue wall states, it

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Speaker 2: is a problem. You know, I always try and remind

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Speaker 2: people the median voter in the United States is a

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Speaker 2: fifty year old white dude and or woman who did

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Speaker 2: not go to college. So that is the whole ball game.

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Speaker 2: That's where everything is now. The reason we lay that

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Speaker 2: out is because that could either be two things, one

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Speaker 2: genuine movement, or it could be the source of poling miss,

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Speaker 2: just like it was in twenty sixteen. So Amy Walter

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Speaker 2: over at Cook Political put this out. Let's put this

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Speaker 2: on the screen, please, She says, I've been thinking about

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Speaker 2: this a lot. If there is a surprise on election night,

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Speaker 2: it is that Trump does better among white non college

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Speaker 2: than polls suggest, which would likely flip the blue wall.

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Speaker 2: So this really is a choose your own adventure of

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Speaker 2: where things are, because it really I mean that if

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Speaker 2: what Harry laid out is accurate, Trump very well could

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Speaker 2: lose because look, yeah it's great to be up by

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Speaker 2: ten percent amongst black voters, but you know Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's some black people, not a lot. There's way more whites.

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Speaker 2: So if they even move a little bit in the

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Speaker 2: Kamala direction, boom, He's going to lose. Men, if we

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Speaker 2: think about it in terms of a MISS, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. My bias is the mys territory, Like,

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Speaker 2: what evidence do we have that these non college educated

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Speaker 2: whites are not going more in the Trump direction white

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Speaker 2: college You know, we can talk about that. Yeah, all

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Speaker 2: day long. I guess the only answer would be that

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Speaker 2: these would be women who are voting on the issue

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Speaker 2: of abortion. That's the only way I could see this

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Speaker 2: theory playing it well.

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Speaker 1: I think the other evidence for it is the fact

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Speaker 1: that he did actually lose a couple points among white

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Speaker 1: non college educative voters between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: So if that's the trend line and that has continued

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Speaker 1: and perhaps, as you're pointing out, been exacerbated by Roe

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Speaker 1: versus weight among women, wouldn't it be crazy if the

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Speaker 1: story of this election is that Donald Trump picks up

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Speaker 1: significant ground with black and brown voters and loses the

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Speaker 1: election because it.

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Speaker 2: Was kind of a story twenty twelve white votes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it actually a little bit, So it would not

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Speaker 3: be that shocking.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we all have to check our kind

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Speaker 1: of biases and caricatures of different electorates at the door.

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Speaker 1: You know, this idea that the white working class is

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Speaker 1: just like mindlessly in support of Trump, and that's that is,

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Speaker 1: you know, as caricaturist as views of other temographic groups. However,

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Speaker 1: to your point, Soccer, I was reading, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: just like reading every bit of data analysis that I

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Speaker 1: possibly can about what direction the polls may move in

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Speaker 1: and how they may be off, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Nate con has a new analysis out at The New

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Speaker 1: York Times of two different theories of the polling misses

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Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and then you know

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Speaker 1: what happened in twenty twenty two. One of them is

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Speaker 1: what he calls the unified theory of polling miss which

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Speaker 1: is effectively that when Trump's on the ballot and he's

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Speaker 1: driving super high turnout and all these infrequent voters come out,

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Speaker 1: it's just impossible for pollsters to be able to really

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Speaker 1: get an accurate portrait of the electorate. White not in

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Speaker 1: college educated voters would be an.

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Speaker 3: Important part of that.

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Speaker 1: You just even when you're correcting for you know, education

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Speaker 1: levels and trying to adjust as best you can, you

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Speaker 1: just can't get people who have not voted in the past,

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Speaker 1: who you know are not all that politically engaged on

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Speaker 1: the phone to accurately reflect in your survey. And those

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Speaker 1: people tend to go more for Donald Trump than other candidates.

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Speaker 1: If that's the reason for the polling miss in twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty. Then that would indicate that the

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Speaker 1: polls are probably once again understating Donald Trump's support. Very possible.

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Speaker 1: The other explanation is, I think he calls it like

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Speaker 1: the patchwork theory, where the idea goes that in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: the myths was because you didn't have polsters waiting in education,

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Speaker 1: that clearly was a big problem for them. Once you

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Speaker 1: waited in education after the fact, that really made those

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Speaker 1: polls a lot more accurate. So that's what happened in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and then in twenty twenty you had the

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Speaker 1: pandemic and this concept of like white liberals, college educated

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Speaker 1: liberals at home board isolated. You had a partisan difference

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Speaker 1: between how people responded to the pandemic, and there's significant

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Speaker 1: evidence that that is the reason for a significant part

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Speaker 1: of the miss in twenty twenty. So if that's the case,

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Speaker 1: then that was kind of a one off.

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Speaker 3: Pollsters have adjusted.

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Speaker 1: It's possible because you saw in twenty twenty two the

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Speaker 1: miscg go the other way that some of the ways

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Speaker 1: that the pollsters have adjusted could even be overstating Trump

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Speaker 1: support this time around. So those are two of the

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Speaker 1: possibilities of what's going on. And of course the third

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Speaker 1: possibility is that it's something else entirely that you know,

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Speaker 1: could create god knows what in terms of polling era

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Speaker 1: this time around, and obviously, with the poles as close

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Speaker 1: as they've been, a little bit of the polls could

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Speaker 1: be accurate within the margin of error and still completely

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Speaker 1: missed a sweet for Trump or a sweet for Kamala.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I think any of these scenarios is

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Speaker 1: really plausible.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, let's put that on the screen just again to

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Speaker 2: put give it out there and what it all looks like.

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Speaker 2: So here you have this was Washington Post amongst likely voters,

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Speaker 2: and they went state by state. Georgia they have it

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Speaker 2: Harris fifty one forty seven. Keep in mind, that's pretty

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Speaker 2: different from a lot of the other stuff. Ither Wisconsin

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Speaker 2: they had at fifty forty seven for Harris, Michigan forty

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Speaker 2: nine forty seven, Pennsylvania forty nine, forty seven, Nevada forty

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Speaker 2: eight forty eight, tiedes Ship, Nevada, more Tide, North Carolina

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Speaker 2: they had Trump up by three. Arizona they had at

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Speaker 2: forty nine forty six. I would say that's in general

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Speaker 2: a pretty bullish poll right there for Kamala general across them,

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Speaker 2: how much is it real? When you add it to

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Speaker 2: the averages, it kind of nets out a little bit.

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Speaker 2: That's what we saw in terms of the Nate Silver

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Speaker 2: analysis that I looked at just yesterday where he incorporated

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Speaker 2: those in. But what he keeps talking about is a

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Speaker 2: tightening of the nationals and a tightening of the national

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Speaker 2: in general. Not really good for her. So it really,

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Speaker 2: like you said, in terms of the choose your own

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Speaker 2: adventure for where the polling miss and all of that

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Speaker 2: will look like, let's put these up there because these

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Speaker 2: are potentially a little bit more useful when it's not

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Speaker 2: about candidates and instead it's about views of the economy.

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Speaker 2: So when we look at the overall view of the economy,

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Speaker 2: there has been a significant rise from October twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: three to October twenty twenty four of whether the economy

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Speaker 2: is good or bad. Now keep in mind you still

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Speaker 2: it's only thirty eight percent sixty two percent, So sixty

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Speaker 2: two percent of people still say it's bad used to

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Speaker 2: be seventy three amongst Democrats, it's actually a majority sixty

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Speaker 2: one percent the economy is good thirty nine percent the

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Speaker 2: economy is bad. Independent though, that's a troubling number for

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Speaker 2: her because you've got independence only twenty eight percent saying

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Speaker 2: the economy is good, seventy two percent bad, and then

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Speaker 2: thirteen percent Republicans saying good eighty five percent bad. So again,

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Speaker 2: there has been major movement from where things were, let's say,

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Speaker 2: in October twenty twenty one, October twenty twenty three, but

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four that in general, it does look

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Speaker 2: like the Independents are much more coalescing around the idea

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Speaker 2: that the economy is or the independence and specifically are

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Speaker 2: still staying in the economy is bad. Now, of course

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Speaker 2: there has been some movement. It does raise the quest's.

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Speaker 1: Worth pointing out that in October twenty twenty two, just

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Speaker 1: before the midterms, use it when Democrats did pretty well,

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Speaker 1: views of the economy were significantly worse than they are now.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Corrollary to this is you have to believe

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Speaker 2: for this to be impactful, that this will be in

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Speaker 2: economy election, and look, we have very recent evidence to

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Speaker 2: say that that is not the case. Let's go to

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Speaker 2: the next place, because that's where things could get a

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Speaker 2: little bit more interesting. So I'll just read here the

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Speaker 2: division on whether Harris or Trump is trusted to handle

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Speaker 2: many issues, and this is going to explain a lot

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Speaker 2: of why different campaigns are doing what they are doing

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Speaker 2: so right now, Abortion policy is the single best issue

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Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. Fifty one percent say they trust Kamala,

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Speaker 2: only twenty eight percent say Trump. Some thirteen percent say neither.

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Speaker 2: Election integrity aka stop the steal. You've got forty eight

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Speaker 2: percent there for Kamala, only twenty eight percent for Trump.

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Speaker 2: Climate change you have forty seven percent for Kamala, twenty

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Speaker 2: one percent for Trump. But now this is where things

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Speaker 2: are starting to get interesting. Taxes on the middle class.

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Speaker 2: Here you have Kamala actually edging Trump out. You have

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Speaker 2: forty six thirty six natural disaster ly forty four to

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Speaker 2: thirty three jobs in unemployment. This was the most interesting

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Speaker 2: one of all of them. This is effectively a net tie.

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Speaker 2: It has forty three percent Kamala, forty one percent for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. That was traditionally one of his strongest issues.

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Speaker 2: The cost of housing, they have forty two percent Kamala

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Speaker 2: at thirty seven percent Trump. We're gonna do a story

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Speaker 2: on Thursday about that. In the Sun Belt, how that's

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Speaker 2: informing a lot of things here where you see some

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Speaker 2: Trump edge, cost of groceries and gas forty percent for Harris,

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Speaker 2: forty two percent for Trump, Immigration one of Kamala's worst issues,

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Speaker 2: thirty seven percent, forty five percent for Trump. And then

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Speaker 2: actually this might be the most interesting. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 2: a lot about this in a little bit situation in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East only thirty five percent Kamala thirty nine

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Speaker 2: percent Trump. To be fair, there's a big neither the

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Speaker 2: category there, but is the worst category actually for Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris in that entire thing. Now, a lot of people,

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Speaker 2: I would say, the vast, vast majority of Americans are

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Speaker 2: not going to vote quote on the situation in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East, but there could be enough. And we're going

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Speaker 2: to talk to you about those swing state undecided voters.

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Speaker 2: Who those people are. To them, it matters a lot

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Speaker 2: and for them, their views on Gaza are very important

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Speaker 2: to that situation in the Middle East question, which is

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Speaker 2: super interesting from the survey analysis that we've been looking at.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well we've been talking about yesterday we covered for

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Speaker 1: premiums in this will post later in the week for everybody.

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Speaker 1: The way that these campaigns have shifted their ad dollars

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Speaker 1: down the stretch. The Kamala Harris team is really pouring

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Speaker 1: their money in two buckets. One is a contrast message

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Speaker 1: on taxes, saying Trump is for the billionaires, We're going

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Speaker 1: to cut taxes for the middle class, for the working class.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if this poll is to believe be believed,

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Speaker 1: it seems like that relent relentless messaging regarding taxes and

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Speaker 1: economic issues is paying off for Kamala Harris because she's

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Speaker 1: closed that gap and in certain instances is even beating

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Speaker 1: Trump on things like cost of housing and other you know,

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Speaker 1: who's going to be better for taxes on the middle class,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. Meanwhile, you see Trump really leaning into cultural

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Speaker 1: issues in particular, running huge amounts dollar amounts of ads

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Speaker 1: on trans issues specifically. And you know, it's fascinating to

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Speaker 1: me because I think the two campaigns have very different

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Speaker 1: theories about who they can still persuade, who they can

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Speaker 1: still turn out. But I will say, you know, if

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Speaker 1: the shoe was on the other foot and it was

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Speaker 1: Democrats who were just like running obsessively on some sort

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Speaker 1: of like niche culture war issue, I would be like,

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Speaker 1: what is wrong with you? Like, what the hell are

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Speaker 1: you doing? And so I do think there's a risk

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Speaker 1: for Trump that he basically seeds the economic messaging and

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Speaker 1: economic landscape to Kamala because he's still fixated on this

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Speaker 1: one cultural issue that you know, the Republicans really tried

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Speaker 1: to run on a similar landscape back in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: two with how much success.

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Speaker 2: I'll flip it around and I'll just say the only

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Speaker 2: I think the case for it. I've increasingly been thinking about,

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Speaker 2: like why, like what's the purpose, especially when I pair

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Speaker 2: with the podcast strategy, is what this is a men's thing.

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Speaker 2: It's mostly like, if we're all being honest, it's mostly

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Speaker 2: men who are like really into the whole trans debate.

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Speaker 2: I would count myself in that category. You know, for

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Speaker 2: some reason pisses me off a lot more than my wife,

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Speaker 2: right or anybody else. I could. There's probably deep psychological

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Speaker 2: reasons and all that for that, but we'll put that

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Speaker 2: all to the side and we'll just say, if I

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Speaker 2: had to guess, that's probably why. And if you specifically

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Speaker 2: think about the Internet, Internet politics and all that, trans

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Speaker 2: is one of the biggest issues that is out there.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking Internet specifically.

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Speaker 3: This is sere.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean clearly they are betting on that.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: And actually, for example, we don't have time for this

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Speaker 2: because it literally just came out. But the massive gender

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Speaker 2: gap I'm looking at right now. So the final the

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Speaker 2: final AJAC what was that Atlanta Journal constitutional pole just

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Speaker 2: came out of Georgia literally just dropped a few minutes ago,

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Speaker 2: and they have a Trump plus thirty one among men

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Speaker 2: and Harris plus eighteen women. So it's a fifty point

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Speaker 2: spread between the two candidates, the biggest gap in gender

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Speaker 2: than the history of the AJAC poll. And they have

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Speaker 2: some undecided, mostly amongst black men. Actually, if you look

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Speaker 2: at it, so you've got seventeen point six percent of

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Speaker 2: the black voters they're in the AJAC pole that are

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Speaker 2: completely undecided. And I mean that's look, you look at

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Speaker 2: a couple of ways, I would say it's generally bad

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Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. And so I mean, look, you know,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't take a genius to look at some cross

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Speaker 2: tabs about how Black Democrats specifically have always been very

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Speaker 2: culturally out of step with the way that the National

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party and elites are. And so that's the context

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Speaker 2: where I think it does make sense and actually, now

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Speaker 2: that we put this, we're about to show a clip

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Speaker 2: here Trump was talking about this issue actually in a

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Speaker 2: black barbershop in the Bronx. That really could be why

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Speaker 2: let's take a listen to that. This was from a

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Speaker 2: couple of days ago. A five year old sons in

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Speaker 2: public schools.

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Speaker 4: Right now, I have a lot of people asking me

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Speaker 4: questions as far as the failing school systems that we

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Speaker 4: have here in the.

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Speaker 6: Bronx, what are we going failing?

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Speaker 7: What are we going to do.

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Speaker 6: To improve that in our school system?

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Speaker 4: So we're moving them back from Washington, where you have

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Speaker 4: people that don't care about New York. Frankly, you know,

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Speaker 4: in Washington, I don't know if you haven't noticed. Les

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Speaker 4: you got Department of Education, Department of Education. You've got

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Speaker 4: half the buildings of Department of Education.

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Speaker 2: I never saw.

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Speaker 4: You don't need any of them.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 4: I want one person and a secretary to just make

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Speaker 4: sure they're teaching English. Okay, give it a little English. Okay,

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Speaker 4: I'd say reading, writing, and arithmetic. No transgender, no operations.

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Speaker 4: You know, they take your kid. There are some places

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Speaker 4: your boy leaves the school comes back a girl, okay,

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Speaker 4: without parental consent what is that all about. That's like,

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Speaker 4: that's when they talk about a threat to democracy.

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Speaker 7: They're a threat.

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Speaker 4: Could you imagine without parental consent? At first, when I

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Speaker 4: was told that was actually happening, I said, you know,

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Speaker 4: it's an exaggeration. No, it happens.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that in the context of all that,

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Speaker 2: I think it's what makes the most sense. I could

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Speaker 2: be wrong, right, I mean, at the same time, we've

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Speaker 2: seen some pressure from some swing state Democrats to respond

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Speaker 2: to this shared Brown was getting hit by it hard

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Speaker 2: by Bernie Morino. He felt the need to respond and

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Speaker 2: be like, no, I don't believe we should have a

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Speaker 2: man and women's sports. Colin all Read in the state

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Speaker 2: of Texas had a similar thing. That's a little bit

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Speaker 2: different because it's Texas. But I took the Brown one

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Speaker 2: to be a lot more noteworthy to me because it's

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Speaker 2: a genuine like already in a Redish state. Clearly, he

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Speaker 2: felt the need that he needs to respond, even though

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Speaker 2: some of his internal polls have him up by six

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Speaker 2: Moreno thinks he's up by two. Clearly, it's a bit

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Speaker 2: of a toss up over there. So I don't know. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I have no idea it could be like twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: or it actually could be genuinely impactful.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I'm just trying to put

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Speaker 1: the shoe on the other foot. Like if Kama got

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Speaker 1: asked a question about failing schools, where clearly the context

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Speaker 1: of the question is not about like gender ideology, it's about, hey,

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Speaker 1: my kids aren't getting the education that is preparing them

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Speaker 1: for success in the world, and she pivoted to talk

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Speaker 1: about like transgender bathrooms or something. I would be like,

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Speaker 1: what is wrong with you? Like that is an insane

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Speaker 1: direction to take this in And you are not at

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Speaker 1: all meeting this voter where they are. You are not

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Speaker 1: at all responding to the concerns there.

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Speaker 3: And so I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I know they're putting a lot of stock into the

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Speaker 1: podcast strategy, and maybe it'll pay off, you know, especially

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Speaker 1: because in a presidential election turnout is going to be high.

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Speaker 3: You are going to have.

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Speaker 1: Some people who are less frequent voters. But I just

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Speaker 1: have to look back at the candidates who have been

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Speaker 1: like the big podcast world candidates before, and every one

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Speaker 1: of them has failed. I mean, DeSantis was big in

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Speaker 1: the podcast world, vivik Ramaswami, big in the podcast world,

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Speaker 1: Tulsey Gabbard big in the podcast world, Andrew Yang big

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Speaker 1: in the podcast world. And I just haven't seen evidence

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Speaker 1: that that is a group of people who is really

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Speaker 1: turning out to vote, that is really, you know.

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Speaker 3: A coalition of political power.

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Speaker 1: And so I'm skeptical, and I would be skeptical, like

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Speaker 1: I said, if I saw Democrats leaning into like a

436
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: niche culture war issue when you have so many undecided voters,

437
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: who can I mean, the overwhelmingly voters men, women, et

438
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 1: cetera say the economy is my number one issue. That

439
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: is what I cared the most about. And you see

440
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: these issue numbers where Trump, who's always dominated on who

441
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 1: you trust to handle the economy, is slipping and slipping

442
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,239
Speaker 1: and slipping and losing ground to Kamala Harris, even at

443
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: a time when you know she's part of the administration

444
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 1: people are upset about the economy. To me, it seems

445
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: like a missed opportunity for him to really focus in

446
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 1: on those bread and butter issues and relentlessly remind people

447
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 1: of like, weren't things better under my administration? I'm going

448
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: to deliver for you, lean into some of the things

449
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: that he's proposed, you know, the no taxes on tips

450
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 1: and other of his policy. I do all the Social

451
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 1: Security thing is a little bit of a mess because

452
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,439
Speaker 1: it would probably bankrupt the fund and people would end

453
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 1: up with.

454
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:34,640
Speaker 3: Cuts of their benefits.

455
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: But some of these things sound really good and sound

456
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 1: populous that he could lean into that he'll just like

457
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 1: throw out once and then you never hear about again.

458
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

459
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: Look, I don't disagree. I would like for things to

460
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: be that way. People say they vote on the economy,

461
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: what happened in twenty twenty two, People say that they

462
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 2: vote on X, Y and z. They don't do that.

463
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just in terms of what really drives

464
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: people out is a very it is an alchemist story.

465
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it seems like in twenty twenty, I mean

466
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 1: I do think that's part of why Trump was able

467
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 1: to out. Now he's still lost, yeah, but he made

468
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: up ground. I mean that's a big part of why

469
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: those Latino voters in the Rio Grand Valley for example,

470
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 1: were like, you know, I got a check with his

471
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 1: name on it, and that seem pretty cool to me.

472
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: They say that, but then what are the candidates who

473
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 2: have run after Trump, who have won in that Valley

474
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 2: run on They didn't run on the economy, they ran

475
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 2: on immigration, they ran on culture. So what's the truth?

476
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: You know, it's one of those where and look, I'm

477
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 2: not putting people down. I get it. I don't really

478
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 2: know why I vote. I don't really know why a

479
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: lot of people vote. But in terms of self identification,

480
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 2: I mean, any psychologists will tell you this. Anybody who's like,

481
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: this is why I did X, Y and Z, it's

482
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 2: very rarely the answer. It's probably more interesting to say

483
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 2: this is why they think they did it. But the

484
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 2: truth is is, if you look at the performance a

485
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 2: lot of those places, most of it is on culture

486
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 2: and on immigration. So I've really come to that. If

487
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: you look at California, if you look at the movement

488
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: in New York, California and elsewhere specifically amongst Latino voters

489
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 2: and others. Sure, economy is a big part of it,

490
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 2: but theory of the economy and kind of culture around,

491
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: like how people don't even talk about certain issues, seems

492
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: equally as important in terms of orientation as well. So

493
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,360
Speaker 2: like when I look at that Georgia number, and I'm

494
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: looking at a fifty two point spread between men and women,

495
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: that's not economic. I mean, sure it's part of it,

496
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: but it's a lot of it is theory. I mean

497
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: it gets to the barstool. The conservative theory I put

498
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 2: out before about a very libertarian like let me do

499
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: whatever I want to do. I mean, that's that's a

500
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 2: frontier mindset. It's baked into the American story. I think

501
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: that is probably what captures it more than anything. But

502
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 2: I mean, if you really look at like the nitty

503
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: gritty of like people who are like talking about like

504
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: the school issue. The guy know, again, no offense, but

505
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 2: you live in the Bronx, that's a New York that

506
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: is a New York local and state issue. Over ninety

507
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: percent the Department of Education. Probably the only thing that

508
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: can really affect is funding and actually, yeah Title nine

509
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 2: or whatever trans stuff. That's about it if you really

510
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: want to look at it. So in terms of like

511
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 2: what they're thinking and how they're going to the ballot box,

512
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: there's a lot culture just seems to be ruling the day.

513
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: But we saw in twenty twenty two they ran a

514
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 1: lot of this stuff and it didn't work.

515
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, Pierson was huge and like that, but

516
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 2: that's a counter that's almost a confirmation of what I'm saying.

517
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: The economy could be terrible in twenty twenty two, which

518
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 2: objectively it was, and people which independence all came out

519
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 2: for Democrats on the issue of abortion. They're trying to

520
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 2: recreate that magic around this time if again, if I

521
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: had to guess, it really is to try and widen

522
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: again gender gap as much as possible.

523
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 1: And I'm sure that is their theory. I just think

524
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: it's a bad theory. I just think that it's you know,

525
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 1: it's sort of fail. It failed in twenty twenty two,

526
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: not only at the like you know, federal level, but

527
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: there was a whole conservative effort to stack a bunch

528
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: of school boards with people who were super anti trans

529
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: and that didn't really that didn't succeed either.

530
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: Even when you were talking just about the local level.

531
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: They had a lot of high profile failures in trying

532
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: to stack these school boards as well. So, you know,

533
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: even within the Republican primary context, like up until recently,

534
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,959
Speaker 1: Donald Trump wasn't re talking about these is. We noted

535
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: that he really wasn't talking much about these issues. It

536
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 1: was Ron DeSantis and others who leaned into it super hard,

537
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: and even in a Republican primary context, it didn't end

538
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: up winning the day, so I'm just skeptical. I think

539
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: he's his strongest issue has always been the economy, and

540
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: that he's letting her get an edge on that issue

541
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: I think creates a real vulnerability for him with you know,

542
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 1: people who are late deciders, who are not super politically engaged,

543
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: who are just you know, may have some fond memories

544
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: of the Trump administration in that era for them economically,

545
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: and it seems to me like he's not doing what

546
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 1: he should.

547
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 3: To capitalize on it.

548
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: And like I said, I just know if it was

549
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 1: the Democrats running the same strategy, I would be like,

550
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: you're idiots, Like what is wrong with you talk to

551
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: voters about the things they are actually actually care about.

552
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 1: You know, if you ask voters their list of top issues,

553
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: this doesn't rank anywhere in them. And just to go

554
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: back really quick to like the question itself, you know,

555
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 1: I get that obviously most of the school decisions are

556
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: you know, state and local funding issues. But what this

557
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: person's really asking about is like, how is my kid going.

558
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 3: To fare in this world? Sure, and if you're.

559
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 1: An effective politician, like you don't necessarily respond directly to

560
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: a question that doesn't totally make sense in the federal context.

561
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 3: What you want to.

562
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: Speak to is what their hopes and fears that are

563
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: being expressed in that question. And I don't think that.

564
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 1: I don't think Trump at that moment not to make

565
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: too much of it.

566
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see if he loses, you'll be right. Okay. So,

567
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: but if the gender gap is what I think it's

568
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: going to be, and this certainly could be a part

569
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 2: of it, and if, especially if that what we talked

570
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: about at the very top of our show, if those

571
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: white college or if those white non college and numbers

572
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,959
Speaker 2: do end up being incorrect, then I mean, clearly they

573
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: had a theory and I think it was mostly the

574
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: right one. Especially if they can run up the scoreboard

575
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: for the popular vote, come within a point, maybe even

576
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 2: one point five votes or one point five percent of

577
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, and then run it all the way up

578
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: in all swing states, that's going to be very impactful

579
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 2: for what that looks like. Okay, as you just said,

580
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: Matt Karp joined us from what is it The Center

581
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 2: of Working Class Center for.

582
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 1: Working Class Politics. He's also professor at Princeton University and

583
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: contributor editor or something like that to Jacobin Magazine. They

584
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: did an in depth survey of voters in the state

585
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, and you know, really through a class lens,

586
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: so they broke down the electorate into not just college

587
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: and non college but also different economic income ranges and

588
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: different occupations, so you could see which parts of the

589
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: working class are going towards Donald Trump, which parts are

590
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 1: going toward Kamal Harris. And then they tested a range

591
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: of different potential messages from the Harris camp, some of

592
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 1: which have been tried in various forms by the Harris camp,

593
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 1: and then a couple that were sort of, you know,

594
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: their formulation of how she could ramp things up on

595
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: the economic front, to see which were most resonant with

596
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: which groups of voters. Super fascinating results, So let's go

597
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: ahead and get to that. Very excited to be joined

598
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 1: this morning by a great longtime front of the show,

599
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: Matt Carpo's with the Center for Working Class Politics and

600
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: has some extra new, extraordinarily interesting new polling data to

601
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:11,959
Speaker 1: share with us.

602
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: Matt, great to.

603
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 6: See you, Cortina Man, Yeah, happy to be here. Guys.

604
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: All right, so tell us what you are up to

605
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: in the state of Pennsylvania in particular.

606
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,479
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I mean just just zooming out nashally for second. First,

607
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 9: you know, Kamala Harris is struggling with working class voters,

608
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 9: you know, by the most sort of commonly available metric,

609
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 9: you know, voters who don't have college degrees. She's down

610
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 9: ten eleven points double digits in Pennsylvania. Specifically, she's down

611
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 9: between seven and as many as eighteen points a Time

612
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 9: survey found last month. This is the constituency is that

613
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 9: she's most struggling to close the deal with Biden. Remember

614
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 9: lost this group only by two to four points in

615
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 9: twenty twenty.

616
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 6: He made up some ground with working.

617
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 9: Class voters with voters without college degrees from Hillary in

618
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 9: twenty sixteen.

619
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 6: So Kamala has you know, drawn even with.

620
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 9: Trump and the polls, but she's still really behind with

621
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 9: these working class voters. And so we ran a study

622
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 9: in Pennsylvania and it was a regular poll and it showed,

623
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 9: you know, like every other poll and neck and neck

624
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 9: race there, it showed Kamala, you know, and.

625
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 6: Trump close on with lots of demographic groups.

626
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 9: But we ran something a little different alongside that poll,

627
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 9: and we wanted to look at essentially the different kinds

628
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 9: of messages that the Harris campaign is putting out, alongside

629
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 9: a couple other sort of hypothetical messages that the campaign

630
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 9: could put out. So we ran messages on a sort

631
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 9: of a moderate opportunity economy message that she's been you know,

632
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 9: hitting a lot in her in her rhetoric.

633
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 6: We ran a message focused on abortion and Roe v. Wade.

634
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 9: We ran a message based on the sort of Trump

635
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 9: is a threat to democracy, Who's going to cancel the constitution?

636
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 9: We ran about five different sort of versions of Kamala messages,

637
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 9: and then we ran two messages that we'd written that

638
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 9: we're not, you know, maybe not the sort of Bernie

639
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 9: Sanders message I would dream up, you know, underneath my

640
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 9: pillow every night. But there are stronger, tougher messages, you know,

641
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 9: talking about Washington is billionaire run by billionaires, about needing

642
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 9: to stand up to the corporations and price gouching some

643
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 9: things that she said, but a lot stronger in tone on.

644
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 6: The populist the populist sample.

645
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 9: That we ran, and then we ran a more progressive

646
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 9: economic message that married that populist tone to some policy

647
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 9: hits like expanding medicare guaranteeing a job, ending offshoring, et cetera.

648
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 9: You know, stuff again, stuff that's in her ballpark, but

649
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 9: a little bit more aggressive than what she's done. And yeah,

650
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 9: and the results showed that, you know, with Pennsylvania voters

651
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 9: and specifically with independent voters and with working class voters,

652
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 9: by a variety of measures, that these that the populist

653
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 9: and the sort of economic focus message were the messages

654
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 9: the things she's not saying essentially performed a lot stronger

655
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 9: than the things she has been saying.

656
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: And yeah, and while you're talking to let me go

657
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: ahead and put those up on the screen while you

658
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: can continue to explain this, because I do think we

659
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: have this this chart that we can show of how

660
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: the messaging performed visa VI Trump totally.

661
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, I mean this is just a crude graph.

662
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 9: We're still waiting to get the final report together that

663
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 9: should come out very shortly, but essentially you can see

664
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 9: that this populist message, which you know, complain that billionaires

665
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 9: are getting richer, we need to stand up to the

666
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 9: big corporations and the politicians in Washington that serve them,

667
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 9: that didn't really focus in the way that Democrats often do,

668
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 9: just on essentially populism as a part is an issue,

669
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 9: you know, the Republicans and their rich friends, but actually

670
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 9: sort of named the enemy as all big corporations and

671
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 9: billionaires and didn't didn't put it in as just the

672
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 9: billionaires on the other side, unlike our billionaires in parenthesis.

673
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 9: And that message really outperformed every other one in the bag.

674
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 9: And the second strongest message was the one that said,

675
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 9: expand medicare and paid leave in a four doable childcare,

676
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 9: stop price gouging, stop off shoring. They kind of threw

677
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 9: some sort of policy goodies into the works alongside some

678
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 9: of the populism.

679
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 6: And it we were surprised to some extent.

680
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 9: Not only did it outperform the sort of the democratic threat,

681
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 9: you know, democracy under siege, we need to save the

682
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 9: constitution message, but it also it also outperformed abortion, which

683
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 9: you know is conventionally understood is the Democrats' strongest playing card.

684
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: Well, let's go to the next one. Can we put

685
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 2: the next graphic please up on the screen about the

686
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 2: favorability rating, so you have there from the strong populace,

687
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: how it outperformed everything from even progressive economics, modern economics

688
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: is soft, etc. The democratic threat message being the one

689
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: that there's been a lot of Kamala messaging on but

690
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: you haven't even necessarily seen. You don't see it actually

691
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 2: playing out even more interesting, you have it amongst independence.

692
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: Can we put the next one please on the screen,

693
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 2: because that arguably could be the most important. And you

694
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: saw the same thing here where the economics strong populism message.

695
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: Both of those two were really important for independence as

696
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 2: opposed to any of the other stuff that they were testing.

697
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is favorability.

698
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 9: So this is essentially like we we just to clarify

699
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 9: how the study worked. We didn't just sort of put

700
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 9: the messages in front of in front of our sample

701
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 9: of voters as independent items. We actually put them in

702
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 9: in a hedge ahead against under essentially Kamala under Kamala

703
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 9: Harris's name, with Kamala Harris's characteristics, simulating a kind of

704
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 9: ballot box scenario. And then we put Trump, and you know,

705
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 9: we put the message against Trump, and we wrote a

706
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 9: series of Trump messages also like the Harris messages, drawn

707
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 9: from his own rhetoric, and so we have not just

708
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 9: how much do they like the message which you saw

709
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 9: there and you could see that they the voter Pennsylvania voters,

710
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 9: especially the independent voters, were drawn towards the populace and

711
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 9: the progressive messages, but they actually outperformed the Trump messages.

712
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 9: So with independence, the populace message beat the Trump message

713
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 9: by eight points, the abortion message only only one by three,

714
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 9: and the democracy message lost by one.

715
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 6: That's with the overall sorry, that's with overall voters.

716
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 9: With independence, which is a tough tougher crowd, the populist

717
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 9: and progressive economic message is one by about three, and

718
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 9: the abortion of democracy message is actually lost to Trump

719
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 9: messages by six and by eight or nine points. So

720
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 9: with that real swing voter demographic, we saw significant splits

721
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 9: the difference between winning and losing.

722
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 3: Let's take a look also at G four.

723
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: This is how blue collar voters respond to these various messages.

724
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 3: Again, I mean it's kind of a similar.

725
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 1: Similar landscape, only here the strong populism comes first, but

726
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: then the moderate economic message, the whole opportunity economy framing,

727
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: which I kind of hate, but they apparently like pretty

728
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 1: well at the let land second, progressive economics land third.

729
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: Put G five on the screen also because this looks

730
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: at non college educated workers, so blue collar workers was

731
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 1: the last one. These are workers who have high school

732
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: degree or less. Strong populism wins than progressive economics than

733
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: moderate economics. I just tell you, Matt, Like, the thing

734
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 1: that makes me most skeptical of these results is just

735
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,439
Speaker 1: how closely is hues to my own, like preferred view

736
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 1: of the world. I have to sort of check myself

737
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: and I have to go back and say, like, you know,

738
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: when we were going into twenty twenty two, and I,

739
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 1: like many others, thought there was going to be a

740
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: red wave, it's because Democrats were not talking about any.

741
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 3: Of this stuff at all.

742
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: Like, at least Kamala has sometimes talked about price gouging,

743
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: She's running ads saying that Trump is for the billionaires

744
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: and I'm for you. In twenty twenty two, they really

745
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 1: didn't do any of that. It was all democracy and abortion,

746
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: and guess what, it worked pretty well. So, you know,

747
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 1: is it possible that even though when you test these

748
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 1: messages like sort of the overall numbers or yes, they

749
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: favor the economic message, maybe the abortion message is super

750
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 1: motivating for people to turn out, and even though it's

751
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 1: not the preferred message over all of them, it's the

752
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: one that is the most intensely felt among a key

753
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 1: demographic group, Like, how else do we explain what happened

754
00:35:59,920 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two when there was basically no economic

755
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: messaging and the state of the economy was quite a

756
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: significantly worse than it is right now at this point

757
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: in time.

758
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, what troubles me there because I hear you, Crystal,

759
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 9: and I feel the same way about like, wow, this

760
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 9: is exactly what my prior said that there must be

761
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 9: something wrong with the survey. But look, what actually troubles

762
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 9: me about the twenty twenty two analogy is that this

763
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 9: is a different electorate. I mean, you have the midterm

764
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 9: turnout is fifty percent or in a good year like

765
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 9: low fifties. I forget what it was in twenty twenty two,

766
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 9: but it was, you know, between fifty and fifty five percent.

767
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 9: In a presidential year. The turnout is last time it

768
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 9: was over sixty five percent. Maybe it's going to drop

769
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 9: this year. I mean in some ways, Democrats maybe hoping

770
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 9: it does. But you have a broader electorate. You have

771
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 9: a sort of a less reliably less motivated electorate in

772
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 9: terms of hardcore partisans on both sides. And yeah, I

773
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 9: think abortion in democracy do bring out the democratic base.

774
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 9: You saw, you know, looking into the we of our polls,

775
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 9: you saw essentially with professional class voters because we did

776
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 9: a we broke down the data not just by education levels,

777
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 9: which is the most common proxy for class, and I'll

778
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 9: defend that as as a way of thinking about class crudely,

779
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 9: but we also we also looked at occupation and so, yeah,

780
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 9: you saw the blue collar numbers, and we could contrast

781
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 9: that with professional class voters, that is, voters in credential jobs.

782
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 9: And every professional class voters liked every message. They actually

783
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,720
Speaker 9: liked the populist messages too, but they liked the abortion

784
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 9: democracy message. They was all between plus four and plus

785
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 9: seven points. They're all in for the Democrats no matter what.

786
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 9: The question is, what about these disproportionately working class, lower

787
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 9: propensity voters in places like Pennsylvania, What are they coming

788
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 9: out to support or a potentially not coming out to oppose.

789
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 9: What's going to bring them out, What's going to motivate

790
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,439
Speaker 9: them or have them lean one direction or another? And yeah,

791
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 9: we found so again with a blue collar group that's

792
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 9: defined by occupation, and it's one of the two working

793
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 9: class groups we tested. We also tested sort of service

794
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 9: clerical workers, which we consider broadly working class also, and

795
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 9: that's the sort of essentially the democratic working class and

796
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 9: the Republican working class. Right now, the blue collar group,

797
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 9: manual workers, they're plus nineteen Trump, but even they were

798
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 9: in the in positive territory on the populace message and

799
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 9: close to positive on the progressive economic message, whereas the

800
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,720
Speaker 9: democracy message they were minus you know, fourteen or something.

801
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 9: So it's really I really worry that she's preaching, you know,

802
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 9: when she's she's you know, at these rallies and eerie

803
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 9: pa and she's got Trump on the JumboTron, and she's

804
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 9: talking about how unacceptable he is and how he's going

805
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 9: to cancel Roe v. Wade and oppose the Constitution. She's

806
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 9: she's that's a large number of voters are eating that

807
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 9: up enough to win in twenty twenty two. Maybe, look,

808
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 9: it's all close. Maybe it's enough in twenty twenty four. Personally,

809
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 9: I hope so. But I don't think this is the

810
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 9: most effective way to win the swing voters, the working

811
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 9: class voters right now in these in these swing states.

812
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 2: Well, you've got the data to back it up, and

813
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 2: luckily we'll find out.

814
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 1: Ye, Matt, I wanted to ask you one more question

815
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: because you mentioned something that I think is interesting. You

816
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: made this distinction between like the Democratic working class and

817
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,240
Speaker 1: the Republican working class, because in addition to testing these messages,

818
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: you did test these different class groups and you got

819
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: down to a much more granular level than I've seen

820
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: in any other poll in terms of which class groups

821
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: just based on income level are supporting which party and

822
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: based on occupation, which was also super fascinating. Can you

823
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about that and some of the

824
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: cleavages even within what we might define broadly as the

825
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 1: working class.

826
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, because you know the phrase, the keyword for

827
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 9: us is it's not the Republican Party hasn't become the

828
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 9: party of the working class.

829
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 6: We talk about class de alignment, not realignment. Of course.

830
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 9: You know, one might say as a sort of a

831
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 9: left leaning group, we fear realignment because the Republicans seem

832
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 9: to be pushing that direction. But right now the working

833
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 9: class is really divided. It's not aligned with either party.

834
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 9: And one cleavage. Some of the cleavages are around, you know,

835
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 9: lines of gender in some cases race, but you know,

836
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 9: a really vivid cleavage is in occupational category, so blue

837
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 9: collar that is, manual workers, you know, truck drivers, manufacturers generally.

838
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 9: You know, this is according to sociologists, people who work

839
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 9: with their hands. They're you know, yeah, they're Trump plus

840
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 9: nineteen in Pennsylvania right now in our in our sample,

841
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 9: and they were, they were, They were in some ways

842
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 9: the most the differences were most dramatic in terms of

843
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 9: their enthusiasm or at least their their winability, I would

844
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 9: say with the populist and with the economic messages. Whereas

845
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 9: the service workers that's another large portion of the working class.

846
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 6: Actually numerically it's it's a bit larger, and.

847
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 9: It's not as dramatically pro democratic as the blue collar workers.

848
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 6: It's. In our sample it was Harris plus six.

849
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 9: But it's a broadly democratic leaning working working class group.

850
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 9: These are you know, everything from clerical workers to cashiers

851
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 9: to a sort of people who work in service occupations.

852
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 6: You know.

853
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, I guess at the McDonald's, you know, entered

854
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 9: the democratic working class there in Pa. But yeah, this

855
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 9: group was. They also really liked the populist and the

856
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 9: progressive rhetoric. They were populism plus twelve. They were also

857
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 9: fine with abortion. That was a plus eight. This is

858
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 9: a democratic group. The democracy message left them pretty cold too,

859
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 9: though it was only it was like plus two, So

860
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 9: I think even those voters, they're going to pull the

861
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 9: lever for Kamala, a lot of them, But some of

862
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 9: that enthusiasm we might see might be stronger for a

863
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 9: more hard hitting economic message, and I do hope that

864
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 9: the campaign leans into that. I mean, there's some evidence

865
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 9: that they're spending ad money in that direction, and I

866
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 9: do think that the sort of going after Trump is

867
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 9: a billionaire is still the sharpest tool on the table

868
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 9: that Democrats have never actually picked up and wielded with

869
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,240
Speaker 9: all its power.

870
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 3: Yeah.

871
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,959
Speaker 1: Well, potentially Elon must run around dangling a million dollar tecks.

872
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 3: The were just man on the planet.

873
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 1: Couldn't give the potential opening if they choose to take.

874
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 3: It, you know.

875
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, Matt, tell people where they can find this

876
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: the survey research, and also where they can follow your work.

877
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 6: So yeah, the survey drops this week.

878
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 9: I think it should be today, and it's at the

879
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 9: Center for Workingclasspolitics dot org. It will also be featured

880
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 9: on at the Jacobin website. My work is at Jacobin.

881
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 9: I'm writing a column for Harper's Magazine lately, so you

882
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 9: can find me and you can find me on Twitter too.

883
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: I don't know that about Harper's update.

884
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: My reading listen include that great to see you, my friend,

885
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 1: Thank you so much.

886
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 6: Too good to see you guys.

887
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 2: The Cheney question, it's been a big one here for

888
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 2: a long time. I want to put it up there.

889
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 2: It's one of the great questions of all time. Right. Well,

890
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney hit the campaign trail hard for Kamala yesterday,

891
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: three separate appearances in one day. They've been putting it

892
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: out everywhere. They've been talking about it, She's been tweeting

893
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 2: about it. She now is one of the most pre

894
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 2: eminent Cheney or sorry, Kamala surrogates in the entire country.

895
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 2: And it's not just us who have noticed this with

896
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 2: a critical and a sad eye. Also John Stewart, who

897
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: had the opportunity to confront Tim Waltz about it. Let's

898
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: take a lesson the Cheney thing. Do we really have.

899
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 3: To do that? Look?

900
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 8: It goes broad in that look Bernie Sanders, Dick Cheney,

901
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:25,919
Speaker 8: Taylor Swift, No.

902
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: No, no, no no no, having the Cheney's on board.

903
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 6: Nah, you can't Dick Cheney or Taylor Swift.

904
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 2: No, Dick, We're a big twidget We're a big country

905
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 2: to Taylor Swift to get us to invade.

906
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 6: No, yeah, no, don't.

907
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 8: Don't you think though that and I do this.

908
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 2: I believe this.

909
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 8: Yeah, there is still a core group of folks out there,

910
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:50,280
Speaker 8: you know, your point being and not that. Don't tread

911
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 8: on me the Reagan piece of this, the libertarian piece,

912
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 8: but the constitutional piece.

913
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 6: There are a lot of people out there. I think.

914
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 8: I think Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney give permission to

915
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 8: those folks who want to find a reason to do

916
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 8: the right thing. It doesn't mean they agree with this.

917
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 8: We're not going to take their foreign policy decisions and discussions,

918
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 8: you know, and implement those. We're gonna take their honest Yes.

919
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I believe Tim's promised there, Crystal,

920
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 2: I'll be honest with you.

921
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 1: That was uh.

922
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: I mean he's been saying that now for several Yeah,

923
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 2: you weren't here the last time Ryan and I talked

924
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 2: about it.

925
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 6: But this is a hit.

926
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 2: He's been saying this, uh, Amy Klobachar the whole like

927
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 2: the that that line of Bernie Sanders, Taylor's absolutely everywhere.

928
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 1: You know, here's the thing, the list Cheney thing would

929
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 1: be more justifiable. Dick Cheney is like it really is,

930
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 1: like we would take.

931
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:46,720
Speaker 3: The endorsement of Zaidan.

932
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: I mean, this is one of, unambiguously, in my opinion,

933
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 1: one of the most nefarious, evil doing characters in American

934
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: political history period.

935
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 3: So to you know, he's not a the.

936
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 1: Campaign trail, but she said, like, we need to thank

937
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney for his service. They bring them up all

938
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 1: the freaking time. It's like, what are we doing here?

939
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 1: And you know, Tim Walls is laying out their theory

940
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: of the case, which is like, okay, well, we think

941
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 1: that there's some persuadable probably mostly you know, sort of

942
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: moderate Republican women who we can still pull into the

943
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: cam Now you may think they have are allready realigned,

944
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 1: but that's actually not true. If you look at states

945
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: like North Carolina in particular, Joe Biden underperformed among suburban

946
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 1: women in North Carolina versus the rest of the country.

947
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: So they feel like, yo, this is a large group.

948
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: If we can pull one to two points more from

949
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: this group, then that's going to make a big difference.

950
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: But that assumes the only way you can reach this

951
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: group is through odious characters like Liz Cheney or worse yet,

952
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney, which is like, this man had a thirteen

953
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: percent approval rating when he left office. Literally, who do

954
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 1: you think this is appealing to? Because I don't. I

955
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: am not familiar with that person. But you know, they

956
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 1: did a different approach that was way better. That shows

957
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 1: you don't have to go down that path in order

958
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: to show bipartisan support. They went out and campaigned with

959
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: one hundred different Republicans. Some of these were like, you know,

960
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 1: union workers who used to be pro Trump and are

961
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: now pro Kamala and are up there speaking from the

962
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 1: heart about why they think this is a better direction.

963
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: That is a million times better approach than this Liz

964
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 1: changing session. And the last thing I'll say about it

965
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 1: is like, because I've agonized and thought a lot about this,

966
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,479
Speaker 1: is it would be one thing if she was doing

967
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: her whole like bipartisan outreach thing, but then coupling it

968
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: with that Tim Walls Minnesota agenda where they're you know,

969
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: really emphasizing these bread and butter issues and going in

970
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 1: one afternoon where you could name off the top of

971
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 1: your head. Okay, here's the top three things that Kamala

972
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 1: Harris is going to do once she's in office, because

973
00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 1: I think that's ultimately far more persuasive than Liz Chading.

974
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,720
Speaker 3: Well okay, but well there you know that that.

975
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say they don't talk about anything,

976
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: but who could actually name what her top priorities are.

977
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,800
Speaker 2: I mean, even if she could name what her actually

978
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: in the piece that we're going to talk about on

979
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 2: Thursday on housing in the sun Belt, the reporters would

980
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 2: ask people in Nevada who are very they're moving right

981
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 2: and predominantly they're very concerned about housing, and they're like, hey,

982
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: have you heard of the housing the Kamala housing thing?

983
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 2: They're like, what are you talking about? And then when

984
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 2: they did hear about it, they're like, I don't believe

985
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 2: she'll actually do it, So very little credibility. Yeah. Also,

986
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: if she was campaigning with Cheney and with Bernie, I

987
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 2: would be like, okay, that's a little bit different. Yeah,

988
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 2: we'll see Bernie out there. No, that's let's put this

989
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: up there on the screen.

990
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: Bernie is wildly more popular than both Liz Cheney and certainly.

991
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: Chick as evident put this on the screen. Harris hit

992
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 2: three states with Liz Cheney. They're going all in on

993
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 2: this stuff. For example, I mean, and also it's not

994
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 2: just hitting the trail with Liz Cheney, it is now

995
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 2: adopting the Cheney like basically rhetoric on foreign policy, which

996
00:47:56,760 --> 00:48:01,879
Speaker 2: is absolutely insane. Obviously, and for evidence of that, let's

997
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: go ahead and put B two please.

998
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 7: Bringing the allies together is because they are fully aware

999
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:12,919
Speaker 7: of and remember to the congresswoman's point, World War two.

1000
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 7: Remember this concept of isolation. We were once there as

1001
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 7: a nation, and then Pearl Harbor happened. Let's remember recent history.

1002
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 7: Europe remembers it. Well, then when we got attacked Pearl Harbor,

1003
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 7: we jumped in. And it is because America jumped in

1004
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 7: that we were ultimately able.

1005
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 2: To win that war.

1006
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 7: And it should be a constant reminder to us. We

1007
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 7: have to remember history. That isolationism, which is exactly what

1008
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:55,840
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is pushing. Pull out a NATO, abandon our friends.

1009
00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:02,879
Speaker 7: Isolationism is not insolation, It is not insulation. It will

1010
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 7: not insulate us from harm in terms of our national security.

1011
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 7: So I say that to emphasize a point that the

1012
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,720
Speaker 7: congresswoman made, And the other point I'd make is also

1013
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,399
Speaker 7: check out where he's been on how he thinks about

1014
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 7: America's military and service members.

1015
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 2: So we've got McCain, we've got oh, it's isolationists not

1016
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 2: to want to fight and die for Ukraine, which is

1017
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: really what they believe. And look, Cheney, I'm just gonna

1018
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 2: say it. I think she's scum, and I'll give you

1019
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: the real thing. It's not about January sixth. It's the

1020
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 2: fact that actually, Crystal she was a lifelong pro life conservative. Okay, whatever,

1021
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: I'm not pro life, that's fine. She though disavowed in

1022
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 2: this same campaign event her lifelong positions on pro life

1023
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: and said Dobbs Quent went too far in terms of

1024
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 2: the repeal of pro life. This woman disavowed her own

1025
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 2: sister to try and win a whisk of the Wyoming

1026
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 2: Senate seat over gay marriage. Now she's disavowing her lifelong

1027
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 2: positions when she was trying to fake being a Republican

1028
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 2: or whatever to try and win like basically voters for

1029
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,320
Speaker 2: her entire career. But the only thing she won't disavow

1030
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:16,360
Speaker 2: is this fake anti isolationist bullshit, not that anybody is

1031
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 2: an isolationist in this thing, or her lifelong position in

1032
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 2: support of her father and the war in Iraq. So

1033
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 2: it's like what principles do you actually have women?

1034
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 1: Actually, it's disgusting is Jadie Vance for abandoning his lifelong

1035
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: commitments and pro life issues to say like, let's leave

1036
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 1: it to the states.

1037
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: That's not no, that's not the same thing, because he's

1038
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 2: because he's supported he supported well, hold on a second,

1039
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 2: he supported a actual national abortion ban as far as

1040
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 2: I remember correct that enjoined a ticket where he's like, Okay,

1041
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 2: we're going to leave it to the States, but has

1042
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 2: never disavowed his position on being pro life. He can't

1043
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 2: paign for the Ohio But that's not the same.

1044
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 1: Well, Cheney's not saying that she's not pro life anymore.

1045
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: She's doing a similar it to Jadie Van. So saying

1046
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 1: my dabs went so far. Jade Vance said that jd

1047
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 1: Vance was in support of a national abortion ban and

1048
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: is now no longer in supportive national abortion ban and

1049
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: wants to leave it to the States.

1050
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 3: So I'm just.

1051
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 1: Saying, I'm not a big Liz Cheney fan, but I

1052
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 1: feel like there's a different standard being applied here, and

1053
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: I do genuinely think you know, she paid a major

1054
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 1: political price for bucking Donald Trump after January sixth, and

1055
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: I am not a Liz Cheney fan, but I think

1056
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 1: she deserves credit for that thing. In particular, going back

1057
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 1: to Kamala's comments with regard to you know, Trump's isolationism,

1058
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:40,240
Speaker 1: it's just not even accurate. Like Trump is not an isolationist.

1059
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:43,720
Speaker 1: This sort of plays into his false framing that he's

1060
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 1: like the anti war candidate, which is just not true.

1061
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: I mean, especially when it comes to Iran. We can

1062
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: hear his rhetoric. He's calling for Israel to strike Iranian

1063
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: nuclear sites. He pulled us out of the Iranian nuclear deal,

1064
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 1: he assassinated cost some Sola money, risking war. You know,

1065
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 1: his foreign policy record, There are areas of it where

1066
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 1: I definitely give him credit, but he stayed in Afghanistan

1067
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 1: and Joe Biden was the one who actually got us sound.

1068
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 1: So part of why I hate this framing is because, yeah,

1069
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: she's positioning the Democrats is like, you know, they're the

1070
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: party of hawks and Trump is the part of party

1071
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 1: of isolationism. It's just not even an accurate picture of reality.

1072
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 1: And then you know, to get to more of this,

1073
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: it's here you are in really dire straits with Muslim

1074
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 1: American voter, with Arab American voters, And I don't think

1075
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of people who are going to

1076
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 1: be won over by a Liz Shady endorsement, but it

1077
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 1: definitely sends a message to a lot of voters who

1078
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:48,720
Speaker 1: are disgusted with your policy in the Middle East about

1079
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 1: who has your ear and who you're listening to. You know,

1080
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 1: I still recall the fact that at the DNC they

1081
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:59,839
Speaker 1: would not allow a Palestinian American on the stage, even

1082
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 1: one who was pro Kamala and wanted to make the

1083
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 1: case for why people should get on board with her campaign.

1084
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: The tent was big enough for Dick Cheney and certainly

1085
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: big enough for Taylor Swift, but it was not big

1086
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 1: enough for a Palestinia American. And you know, at the

1087
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 1: end of the day, maybe it ends up not mattering.

1088
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 1: Maybe they win enough of those white suburban women voters.

1089
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 1: That's their theory of the case, that moving a couple

1090
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 1: points of them into their column. They think that's doable,

1091
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 1: and they think that will be a game changer for them.

1092
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 1: But they've created tremendous risks on the other side, not

1093
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: just among Arab American voters, either among young voters, among

1094
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: a range of voters of color, and you know, I

1095
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: think the data at this point forson now.

1096
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 2: At the DNC, you know, just for that point, it's

1097
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 2: not even just about the Palata anything. Remember in the

1098
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 2: DNC platform that they disavowed the Iranian nuclear deal, and

1099
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 2: Kamala has now said that Iran is the greatest threat

1100
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 2: of the United States basis So okay, that's a little

1101
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 2: bit ridiculous to return to the Cheney thing.

1102
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 6: Though.

1103
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 2: One of the reasons that I think it is incredibly

1104
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 2: different is that age she's actually campaigning for a literal

1105
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 2: president who wants to codify Roe versus Wade.

1106
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: That.

1107
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 2: But two is that if you look at the stringent

1108
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 2: nature of her positions in the past, in which she

1109
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: was literally willing to disavow her own family members, it

1110
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 2: does tell me that war and commitment to whatever this

1111
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 2: fake democracy thing which happens to help war and the

1112
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 2: at least at the very least like help the neo

1113
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,880
Speaker 2: conservative agenda, which is really what I think she cares

1114
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 2: the most about, is the pre eminent value to her.

1115
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 2: That is fine, I actually am fine with that, but

1116
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 2: you can't be talking and disavowing your own sister spend

1117
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 2: a lifelong representative of Wyoming basically campaigning for wanting to

1118
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:39,399
Speaker 2: overturn Rovers's weight and exactly have the Dobbs decision and

1119
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 2: then reverse on a dime, just simply on the question

1120
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 2: of Trump like working within the confines of yeah, Jad

1121
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 2: as far as I understand, still probably believes in an

1122
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 2: actual national abortion band, doesn't believe it's politically feasible. Is

1123
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 2: with the candidate who says, yeah, we should leave it

1124
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 2: to the States, which is about as good as we're

1125
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: con get and is still personally pro life. I just

1126
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 2: think that's very different on those questions values, and especially

1127
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 2: in terms of the candidates and with what they're campaign

1128
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 2: for than what Liz Cheney has done given her own

1129
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: literal past, and I mean causing rips, not just with

1130
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 2: the sister with her own father, who, if I recall,

1131
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 2: came out and attacked her for her position on gay

1132
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,839
Speaker 2: marriage in that Wyoming stenate race, which she lost, by

1133
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:19,839
Speaker 2: the way, which is the best part of this entire thing.

1134
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: And I'm not just the one saying it's a lot

1135
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 2: of the pro life people are the ones who are

1136
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 2: the most upset. Again, I'm not even proluit, I don't

1137
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 2: just but it's more about saying again nothing.

1138
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: I feel that there is a different standard being a play.

1139
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 3: Jad E.

1140
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: Vance literally said previously that Trump was potentially Americus Hitler,

1141
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 1: and then when it served him in order to get

1142
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 1: a Senate seat, he changes tune.

1143
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 3: Right.

1144
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 1: Colin Harris has shifted her positions. Trump has changed his

1145
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 1: positions on abortion a million times, and I don't hear

1146
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 1: you calling them scum.

1147
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 3: For doing so.

1148
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 2: It's different. For example, on Trump, I never I don't

1149
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 2: think anybody believes that Trump is genuinely pro life, or

1150
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 2: if you do, like I've got something to tell you.

1151
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 2: I think the Cheney's definitely positioned themselves in a very

1152
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 2: different direction on that. I mean Trump and the character

1153
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,359
Speaker 2: question on Hitler and all that that's been nausey, that's

1154
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 2: been like litigated a million times. Either change his position conveniently,

1155
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 2: or he changes mind. I think he probably changed his mind.

1156
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 2: If you ask me, you're welcome to change or have

1157
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 2: a different opinion.

1158
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: I just don't see the difference, even specifically on the

1159
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 1: issue of abortion, between Jade Vance, who is deeply religious

1160
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 1: and Catholic, who five minutes ago was in support of

1161
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 1: a national abortion ban with basically no exceptions to Yeah,

1162
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 1: it's a political reality. He's on a ticket where they

1163
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 1: realize abortion is a problem for him, so he has

1164
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 1: shifted his stance.

1165
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:38,879
Speaker 3: Guess what.

1166
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 1: Liz Cheney is doing something very similar here and recognizes. Okay,

1167
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 1: if I'm going to be acceptable to the Democratic mainstream,

1168
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 1: I see how unpopular Dobbs has been. I need to

1169
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 1: at least say, like, Dobbs has gone too far. None

1170
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: of this I think is particularly principled. I'm just saying

1171
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 1: I know to say she's scummed for that. There are

1172
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:02,319
Speaker 1: many other reasons why I might say that Liz Cheney

1173
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,279
Speaker 1: is gone, but I don't necessarily if you're going to

1174
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:08,359
Speaker 1: apply that standard in this instance, I would say, we have.

1175
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 2: To bring in the Sisters thing in from twenty thirteen,

1176
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 2: which I remember quite well for a lot of the

1177
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 2: liberal press agreed with me at that time for what

1178
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 2: that looked like. But then, in terms of Roe versus Wade,

1179
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: there's a big difference in supporting a candidate who's like,

1180
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 2: leave it to the States, which would effectively allow pro

1181
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 2: life states if they want to pass those things, as

1182
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 2: opposed to a Canada who wants to literally codify Roe

1183
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 2: versus Wade. Do you think abortion National.

1184
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 1: Do you think abortion is murder, which Jade Vance you know,

1185
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 1: previously did, Then it's murder whether it's being done in

1186
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 1: California or Mississippi or wherever. So in any case, there

1187
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 1: have been a lot of politicians who have conveniently shifted

1188
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: their position on the issue of abortion post obs because

1189
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 1: they recognize how wildly unpopular the previous position of the

1190
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: Republican Party was, and Liz Cheney happens to be among

1191
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 1: those people.

1192
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit different, but I guess

1193
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 2: we'll just agree on that or disagree on that one.

1194
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: On the issue of Cheney, what do we have an

1195
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 2: interesting fissure where Trump is now trying to use the

1196
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 2: Cheney support to try and win over Muslim and Arab

1197
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 2: American voters. Let's put this up there on the screen.

1198
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 2: This is a tweet or truth, I guess you will

1199
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:22,160
Speaker 2: call it. He says. Arab voters are very upset. Kamala

1200
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,640
Speaker 2: Harris the worst vice president and history of the United States.

1201
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: Any low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a

1202
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 2: rock warhawk, Liz Cheney, who like her father, the man

1203
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 2: that pushed Bush to ridiculously goes to war in the

1204
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 2: Middle East, also wants to go to war with every

1205
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 2: Muslim country known to mankind. Remember Liz Cheney lost her

1206
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: congressional seat by the largest margin in history for sitting

1207
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 2: congress person. If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle

1208
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 2: East will spend the next four decades going up in flames.

1209
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 2: Your kids will be off to war, maybe even the

1210
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 2: Third World War, something that will never happen with President

1211
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 2: Donald J. Trump in charge. For our country's sake and

1212
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 2: for our kids, vote Trump for peace. Now that's the

1213
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 2: first time that I've seen something like that actually come out,

1214
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:05,919
Speaker 2: and interestingly enough, it could be part of a real

1215
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 2: concerted strategy. Let's put B seven please up on the screen,

1216
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 2: because this came out last night and I was really

1217
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 2: interested in this quote. Trump holds edge with Arab Americans.

1218
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: According to a new Arab News Ugov poll, some forty

1219
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 2: five percent of respondents so they are more likely to

1220
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 2: vote for Trump, while forty three percent that they would

1221
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 2: cast their ballot for Kamala Harris. Obviously, that's within the

1222
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 2: margin of error, and they have Jill Stein at a

1223
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 2: six percent. Two percent say that they would decline to

1224
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 2: give their choice. But I think when you put those

1225
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 2: together on top of some New York Times analysis, Crystal

1226
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 2: that you found this really does show that within swing

1227
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 2: voters and around this question of Cheney, that there actually

1228
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 2: could be some organic pushback in the Arab American community

1229
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 2: around this and potentially enough to swing the state of Michigan. Yeah.

1230
00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 3: Well, it's funny Trump's truth there.

1231
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 1: I seem to recall last election cycle him campaigning quite

1232
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 1: happily with Liz Cha, so you know, for him, Oh yeah,

1233
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 1: the only the only question that really matters at the

1234
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 1: end of the day is how you feel about Donald Trump.

1235
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: Let's put V six up on the screen, though, because

1236
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 1: this explains where this true social came from, and you

1237
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 1: know why they are moving this direction of trying to

1238
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,560
Speaker 1: make some sort of appeal to the Arab American community

1239
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 1: and some sort of pivot on gods.

1240
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 3: In particular.

1241
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 1: The Trump campaign's research, they write in this, found that

1242
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: up for Grab voters were about six times as likely

1243
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 1: as other battleground state voters who motivated by their views of.

1244
01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 3: Israel's war in Gasa.

1245
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely

1246
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 1: to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall, and

1247
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:45,520
Speaker 1: were likely to be black about twenty five percent of

1248
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 1: undecided voters are black, according.

1249
01:00:47,640 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 3: To the Trump team.

1250
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:53,920
Speaker 1: And these two things go together, because we've tracked that

1251
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 1: in the polling all along, African Americans have much higher

1252
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 1: support for for Palestine, which lower support in general for

1253
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:07,160
Speaker 1: the US policy of unconditional support vis a vis Israel.

1254
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 1: And so, you know, some of us have been warning

1255
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 1: all along that this was a massive risk for Democrats,

1256
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:18,000
Speaker 1: not just among Arab American voters, but among a much

1257
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 1: broader coalition. And this is what the Trump team has

1258
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 1: picked up on that in the fact, you have a real,

1259
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: you know, schism in the Democratic base primarily honestly between

1260
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:31,080
Speaker 1: Democratic elites and the rest of the party, just judging

1261
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 1: by the polling. And so they're trying to you know,

1262
01:01:34,720 --> 01:01:37,920
Speaker 1: signal like you know, signal some sort of empathy or

1263
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 1: some sort of support or some sort of contrast with

1264
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,280
Speaker 1: the Democrats here to try to pull off as many

1265
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 1: voters as they possibly can. You know, will it be successful,

1266
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 1: I don't know. But for Democrats to be losing Arab

1267
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 1: Americans in the state of Michigan is just utterly it's disgraceful.

1268
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 1: They did it to themselves. She did it to herself.

1269
01:01:57,000 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 1: This is the issue we showed you previously where she

1270
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 1: has the lowest approval rating from voters, and you have

1271
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 1: voters who desperately want to see her being different from

1272
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, this is the issue where you can do it.

1273
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, when you look at the polls, you know,

1274
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 1: there was a lot of conversation earlier in the cycle

1275
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: where it was like, oh, barely anybody even cares about

1276
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 1: Israel and Gaza. This is not that important to voters.

1277
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter where Common positions herself on this.

1278
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 1: But if it's important to a key group of swing

1279
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:32,720
Speaker 1: voters in battleground states, then yeah, guess what, it ends

1280
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: up mattering a lot. So you know, if she ends

1281
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 1: up losing, which I think is possible because of her

1282
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:46,680
Speaker 1: unconditional support for Biden's policy of supporting a genocide in

1283
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 1: the Gaza strip, they only have themselves to blame for

1284
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 1: going down in flames because what the way she has

1285
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: consistently stood by that policy has been deeply disappointing and

1286
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 1: utterly disgraceful.

1287
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 2: It's interesting too, if you look further in that Undecided research,

1288
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 2: they say that these people describe themselves as non ideological

1289
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 2: and then looking then at those issues that are going

1290
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 2: to push them the most, and they found that Israel

1291
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:17,280
Speaker 2: Gaza is one of those where I mean again, to

1292
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:21,040
Speaker 2: be one that is six times as likely as other

1293
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 2: battleground state voters to be moted by motivated by is

1294
01:03:24,400 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 2: pretty ridiculous considering I mean, Israel, God's Middle East in

1295
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:30,760
Speaker 2: general usually at the bottom tier of most people's ranking

1296
01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 2: if you look at the overall aggregate, even amongst young

1297
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:37,920
Speaker 2: voters that we've seen before, but with this tiny slice

1298
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 2: and with the Arab Americans, we could be looking at

1299
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 2: a real thing. I mean, I'll be honest, I don't

1300
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 2: one hundred percent understand it, but it's clearly a real phenomenon.

1301
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 2: Because what is it we have that mayor of the

1302
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 2: Muslim majority town Amtrak, I forget exactly the day, but

1303
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 2: the guy doors Trump apparently Trump has a office that

1304
01:03:57,160 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: they opened there, which everybody in Michigan was like, why

1305
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 2: we you do this? But now I think we do

1306
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 2: know why about their micro targeting data for that, so

1307
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:05,680
Speaker 2: it certainly is something.

1308
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 6: Now.

1309
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 2: Again, like I said, the reason I don't particularly understand

1310
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 2: it is for all being honest, like Trump, you know,

1311
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:13,800
Speaker 2: definitely is a lot more pro Israel than commonly, no

1312
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 2: doubt about it.

1313
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 1: First, and his coalition is more consistently pro Israel. So

1314
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,440
Speaker 1: if even if he's just a creature of like you know,

1315
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: his supporters and donor network, he's going to end up

1316
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 1: in a much more pro Israel position.

1317
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:25,000
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1318
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 2: So like for example, we have Michael Tracy pulled this out.

1319
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 2: This is from a more recent I think it was

1320
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 2: a town hall on Trump asked about Iran and nuclear

1321
01:04:33,440 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 2: facilities and whether Israel should be able to hit them.

1322
01:04:35,760 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.

1323
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 10: They asked him, what do you think about what do you.

1324
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 6: Think about Iran?

1325
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 10: Would you hit around? And he goes, as long as

1326
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 10: they don't hit the nuclear stuff, that's the thing you

1327
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 10: want to hit, right, I said, I think he's got

1328
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 10: that one wrong. Is that the what you're supposed to hit?

1329
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 10: I mean, it's the biggest risk. We have nuclear weapons,

1330
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 10: the power of nuclear weapons, the power of weaponry. You know,

1331
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 10: I rebuilt the entire military jets, everything I built it,

1332
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:09,080
Speaker 10: including nuclear and I hated to build the nuclear but

1333
01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,520
Speaker 10: I got to know firsthand the power of that stuff.

1334
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:12,360
Speaker 10: And I'll tell you what.

1335
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 6: We have to be totally prepared. We have to be

1336
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 6: absolutely prepared.

1337
01:05:17,720 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 10: But when they asked him that question, the answer should

1338
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 10: have been hit the nuclear first and worry about the

1339
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 10: rest later.

1340
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 2: All right, So if we're all being honest here about

1341
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:29,760
Speaker 2: what exactly that looks like. I mean, it's one of

1342
01:05:29,760 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 2: those where I didn't really want to like put this

1343
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 2: woman down yesterday, but we played that video of that

1344
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: what was it the side of the American voters and

1345
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:42,120
Speaker 2: she's like, I'm voting for Trump to punish Kamala Harris,

1346
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 2: And I was like, look, I understand that, Like I'm

1347
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:47,480
Speaker 2: not going to shame you, but if your ongoing concern

1348
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 2: is about that, I mean, Trump has shown literally no

1349
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 2: care whatsoever. Now listen, you know it's not my top priority,

1350
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:57,680
Speaker 2: so whatever, But if that's your top priority, I don't

1351
01:05:57,680 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 2: get it, you know, in terms of like this is

1352
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 2: the most pro Saudi you know, pro like Golf Arab

1353
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:08,960
Speaker 2: Emirates state president. Yeah, in modern history, the Saudi's and

1354
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 2: the Gulf have a real plan for Gaza. It's called

1355
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:13,560
Speaker 2: they get to take it over and we get to

1356
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 2: fund it. I mean, if you support that, it's fine,

1357
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 2: you know, but I don't know, I don't understand. I

1358
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 2: don't know how you can be like the whole like

1359
01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:23,960
Speaker 2: genocide person and also vote for Donald Trump. Again, it's

1360
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 2: not my top priority, so it's not like something that

1361
01:06:26,240 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 2: keeps me up at night in terms of like, oh,

1362
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:31,120
Speaker 2: how to agonize for my vote. But if it is,

1363
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 2: then you know, that's just one of those where I

1364
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:34,560
Speaker 2: find myst Fine.

1365
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it doesn't make any logical sense, bottom line.

1366
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:41,840
Speaker 1: And he's consistently at this point been hitting Joe Biden

1367
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 1: from the right on him not doing enough to support

1368
01:06:45,840 --> 01:06:47,320
Speaker 1: Israel or another example of that.

1369
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 3: This is b five.

1370
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:52,120
Speaker 1: He got asked a question about exactly this issue, and

1371
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:55,080
Speaker 1: he says Biden's trying to hold Babe back, no evidence

1372
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 1: of that. He probably should be doing the opposite. Actually,

1373
01:06:58,000 --> 01:06:58,960
Speaker 1: let's take a listen to that.

1374
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 3: Here.

1375
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:03,560
Speaker 8: More than I think it makes it easier, I'm going

1376
01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:06,360
Speaker 8: to talk to Prime Minister Dan God about it.

1377
01:07:06,560 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 10: He's called me, Yes, he's called me.

1378
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:11,080
Speaker 6: I have not spoken.

1379
01:07:11,120 --> 01:07:11,960
Speaker 2: I'm going to speak to it.

1380
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:14,200
Speaker 3: Probably now you want to tell them.

1381
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 10: Well, look, you're doing a good job. Biden is trying

1382
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:20,040
Speaker 10: to hold him back. Just so you understand, Biden is

1383
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:24,640
Speaker 10: far superior to the to the VP. He's trying to

1384
01:07:24,640 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 10: hold him back and he probably should be doing the opposite.

1385
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 6: Actually, I'm glad.

1386
01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 10: That BB decided to do what he had to do.

1387
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 6: But it's moving along pretty good. Everything's moving a lin.

1388
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 3: So there you go.

1389
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 1: As we pointed out yesterday, Sar, you flagged this, some

1390
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:43,440
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of israelis.

1391
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 2: For Donald Trump.

1392
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:48,720
Speaker 1: And one thing that I wanted to point out about

1393
01:07:48,760 --> 01:07:51,160
Speaker 1: the polling is there had previously been a poll showing

1394
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:55,720
Speaker 1: Jill Stein leading among I believe it was our American

1395
01:07:55,800 --> 01:07:58,360
Speaker 1: voters in some of these insation I thank you, in

1396
01:07:58,560 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 1: several of the swing states. So this polling is really

1397
01:08:01,160 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 1: dissonant from that. So just to put an asterisk there.

1398
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 1: But the other thing I saw recently, I don't know

1399
01:08:06,080 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 1: if you saw this Aga, that there's been two separate

1400
01:08:09,600 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 1: polls that showed dyl Stein is now taking war from

1401
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:17,639
Speaker 1: Donald Trump than from Kamala Harris. And if these survey

1402
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:21,479
Speaker 1: results are correct, that would make some sense because if

1403
01:08:21,479 --> 01:08:25,080
Speaker 1: it's basically like Arab American voters have ruled out Kamala

1404
01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:28,320
Speaker 1: and now they're deciding between the other options, Jill Stein

1405
01:08:28,360 --> 01:08:30,240
Speaker 1: being one of them and Trump being the other one,

1406
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: it makes some kind of sense. So just who knows

1407
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 1: if that's accurate? Who knows if this poll is exactly accurate.

1408
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,720
Speaker 1: But I think there's no doubt Kamala Harris has a

1409
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:45,360
Speaker 1: massive issue with these voters. It's one hundred percent of

1410
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 1: her own making. And then the only other thing I'll

1411
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:49,680
Speaker 1: say is with regard to Jill sin potentially taking more

1412
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:53,439
Speaker 1: from Donald Trump, you know, just you have to have

1413
01:08:53,520 --> 01:08:56,080
Speaker 1: some humility about how all of these things are going

1414
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 1: to work out. It was considered written in stone that

1415
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:02,000
Speaker 1: she would be more deaf frumental to the Democrats. And

1416
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 1: you know, voters are more complex beings than they're often

1417
01:09:05,160 --> 01:09:08,360
Speaker 1: given credit for, and so you know, it may turn

1418
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 1: out to be the case that she's more of an

1419
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 1: issue for the Republicans than for Gamala Harris, which would

1420
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:13,800
Speaker 1: be kind of wild.

1421
01:09:13,880 --> 01:09:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it would be crazy. How About she just gets

1422
01:09:16,320 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 2: to run and people can decide for themselves, you know,

1423
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:21,639
Speaker 2: how about that? I think that probably works out the best.

1424
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 2: So in general, when we think about all of this,

1425
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 2: I do think it is pretty interesting. Why don't we

1426
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:28,880
Speaker 2: put the last b eight please up on the screen.

1427
01:09:29,479 --> 01:09:33,160
Speaker 2: This was from it says the AP reported that sixty

1428
01:09:33,160 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 2: four percent of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in twenty twenty.

1429
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:40,839
Speaker 2: Thirty five percent supported Trump, and in heavily Arab American

1430
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 2: counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little

1431
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:47,400
Speaker 2: less than seventy percent. So just to underscore what the

1432
01:09:47,400 --> 01:09:50,120
Speaker 2: flip of all of this would look like, I mean,

1433
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,360
Speaker 2: there is an open question how much of this is gaza.

1434
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 2: I mean, how many of these people are voting for

1435
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 2: Trump because of the economy or for something like that.

1436
01:09:56,479 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 2: It's very possible, right, as they correctly point out, it's

1437
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 2: not just Muslim voters. You've got a lot of Christians

1438
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 2: who are Arab American as well. They potentially could be

1439
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:05,960
Speaker 2: voting on that. I mean, there's a lot of different

1440
01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,439
Speaker 2: reasons why people come to America and they vote, So

1441
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:11,479
Speaker 2: the shift in that could be I mean, could be men, right,

1442
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:13,719
Speaker 2: it could be cultural issues. There's a lot of different

1443
01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:17,920
Speaker 2: reasons for why people might shift in different directions. But nonetheless,

1444
01:10:17,960 --> 01:10:20,600
Speaker 2: it is certainly a major phenomenon.