WEBVTT - Facebook Is Real Business, But Google Is Better For Ad Exposure

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim

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<v Speaker 1>Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews

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<v Speaker 1>for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery

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<v Speaker 1>store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P and

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<v Speaker 1>L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>The shares of Facebook, they continue their decline to about

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred and seventy five dollars right now. That drop

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<v Speaker 1>being reflected because of the poor report that the company

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<v Speaker 1>gave after the close of trading yesterday, surprising many analysts

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<v Speaker 1>joining us now. Colin gillis Director of Research at Chatham

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<v Speaker 1>Road Partners. Colin gillis always a pleasure if someone said

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<v Speaker 1>to you, gee, I'm an analyst who covers Facebook and

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<v Speaker 1>I just got by what they reported. What are you

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<v Speaker 1>feeling right now? It's a painful day to watch Facebook shares,

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<v Speaker 1>but a little bit of perspective is needed. Right the

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<v Speaker 1>shares are just back to the level they were at

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<v Speaker 1>in May. We knew that Facebook was going to be

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<v Speaker 1>continuing to invest in security. We knew there's gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>some concerns around the g d p R, right, the

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<v Speaker 1>General Data Protection Regulation that's happening in Europe. So the

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<v Speaker 1>magnitude of the pullback is severe. But this is still

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<v Speaker 1>a real company, and it's still a real business, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's still in an area where we're gonna see material growth. Alright.

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<v Speaker 1>So Colin, is this a buying opportunity? You know it is.

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<v Speaker 1>But what I always tell people is, if you're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the space right and you want to have exposure

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<v Speaker 1>to know Internet advertising, why not just own Alphabet You've

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<v Speaker 1>got a very similar type of company, the same revenue stream,

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<v Speaker 1>but you've got a more diversified suite of services, right,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Alphabet a A Google has eight platforms with

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<v Speaker 1>a billion users, right, whether it's Gmail, Chrome, Maps, YouTube, Android,

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<v Speaker 1>the play Store, and Google Drive. So they have a

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<v Speaker 1>much broader diversity of products, whereas Facebook really just has

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<v Speaker 1>their core platform and Facebook and to a separate degree, Instagram.

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<v Speaker 1>When does the bleeding stop in terms of the stocks

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<v Speaker 1>sell off at Facebook? Do you believe right that that

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<v Speaker 1>that's the number one question that's being asked, and you

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<v Speaker 1>know it's gonna take several days to shake out. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the concern is the forward guidance. Right, we

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<v Speaker 1>are going to see revenue decelerate and we are going

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<v Speaker 1>to see expenses likely to tick up, but it may

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<v Speaker 1>not be as bad as people are expecting. So, just

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<v Speaker 1>like what we saw with the March quarter results, right

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<v Speaker 1>where people were expecting the worst, it didn't come in

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<v Speaker 1>quite as bad. And that's why they bit it back

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<v Speaker 1>up to these record levels. You know, let's let it

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<v Speaker 1>settle down for a little bit. I do think that

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook is a real business. I think the advertise users

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<v Speaker 1>are not going to disappear, and I do think that

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<v Speaker 1>people are still going to continue to use it. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>there is some saturation that's happening. They have total about

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<v Speaker 1>two and a half billion users across all their platforms.

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<v Speaker 1>There's only three billion people who have access to the internet. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>but Colin, you know some people could say, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a real business. They still can count more

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<v Speaker 1>than two billion people. You know, this is a huge

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<v Speaker 1>proportion of the globe that uses the platform. So perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>the flaw lies with the management, the executives who didn't

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<v Speaker 1>guide the market better, who didn't basically indicate, look, things

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<v Speaker 1>are slowing down, just hold your horses and and sort

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<v Speaker 1>of and provide better expectations for what's to come in

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<v Speaker 1>real time. Yeah, you could say that, and you could

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<v Speaker 1>also say that they did try to, you know, give

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<v Speaker 1>certain signals right that that this was was coming um

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<v Speaker 1>and that the market did not pay any attention to

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<v Speaker 1>those signals, right, And that's why we're getting the reset

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<v Speaker 1>that's happening today. Colin tell us about Amazon, Right, So, Alexa,

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<v Speaker 1>which company will become the trillion market cap first? And

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to find that out today after Amazon print.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, Amazon is one of these companies that

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<v Speaker 1>has built this incredible ecosystem right around their their prime

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<v Speaker 1>member systems, and it is a strong contender to become

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<v Speaker 1>the first company to rease that trillion dollar market cap.

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<v Speaker 1>So again, an unbelievable run into this earnings print today, right. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're looking at something a fifty year to date,

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<v Speaker 1>So I wouldn't be necessarily surprised if there is, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as a hiccup because expectations are so strong. But that

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<v Speaker 1>being said, for the for the longer term, for the

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<v Speaker 1>longer term view, Amazon is an incredible opportunity to own.

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<v Speaker 1>So Amazon is sort of this interesting company because they

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<v Speaker 1>don't see incredible margins, they actually aren't as profitable as

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<v Speaker 1>their dominance would suggest, because that's their whole business model, right,

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<v Speaker 1>basically to offer the lowest price uh in order for

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<v Speaker 1>bigger market share. So what two investors have to see

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<v Speaker 1>to keep that going to the one trillion to our valuation, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And what they do is is it's the degree of

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<v Speaker 1>leverage that is baked into that Amazon business model. And

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<v Speaker 1>when when you look, when you play around and you see,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what a small decrease in marketing spend UM

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<v Speaker 1>or you know some improvement in shipping costs or you

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<v Speaker 1>know a tick up UH in in AWS. Right. You

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<v Speaker 1>know services that UM are not physical goods, right, but

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<v Speaker 1>more digital goods. Right. That's the area where people want

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<v Speaker 1>to be focusing in on to to to see that profitability.

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<v Speaker 1>And quite honestly, right, you know they've run the core

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<v Speaker 1>business at break even, right. All the profit is coming

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<v Speaker 1>from AWS to to get that market share. But you've

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<v Speaker 1>got one million prime customers. They are winning the entire

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<v Speaker 1>retail battle, and um, that profitability will come just quickly. Colin,

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<v Speaker 1>is there any other company that you need to own

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<v Speaker 1>other than Amazon and Alphabet? It wouldn't be Apple in

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<v Speaker 1>my mind right, you know, certainly you know Apple prints

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<v Speaker 1>next week. Um, they're lagging so far behind in my view.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's the thesis is is that services will

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<v Speaker 1>will make up for a saturated smartphone marketplace. But I

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<v Speaker 1>don't see Apple having the chops in AI. I see

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<v Speaker 1>Siri lagging behind Alexa and Google, and so I'd be

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<v Speaker 1>concerned about that. Colin Gillis, thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us today. Colin Gillis is director of research at

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<v Speaker 1>See our partners take a look at small and mid

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<v Speaker 1>cap stocks with Davils and Blubertocks editor, columnist and blogger

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<v Speaker 1>at M Live. Go on the Bloomberg. The Russell two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand is up, even though you are seeing some turbulence

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<v Speaker 1>in the broader indices. Oh, absolutely, Lisa, and the Russell's

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<v Speaker 1>gain amounts to nine tents of a percent, quite a

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<v Speaker 1>contrast with the SMP five hundred, which is lower by

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<v Speaker 1>a tenth of a percent. The Russell's sharpest game by

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<v Speaker 1>far belongs to Supervalue, whose ticker is s VU. The

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<v Speaker 1>grocery wholesaler and supermarket owner has risen sixty four and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent after agree to a two point nine

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollar takeover by United Natural Foods No Supervalue, had

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<v Speaker 1>been under pressure from activist investor Blackwell's Capital to consider

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<v Speaker 1>a sale United National Their ticker U and f I.

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<v Speaker 1>That stock has one of the Russell's biggest losses in

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<v Speaker 1>response to the deal. It's down thirteen and a half percent. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Another stock lifting the index is Annika Therapeutics tooker a

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<v Speaker 1>n i K, the maker of orthopedic products, is up

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two percent. Anaka's second quarter earnings were more than

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<v Speaker 1>twice analyst average estmate in the Blueberg survey, and sales

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<v Speaker 1>beat projections. And you've got an even bigger gain in

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<v Speaker 1>John Bean Technologies ticker j A b T. It's up

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<v Speaker 1>almost twenty five The food and beverage technology company posts

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<v Speaker 1>a second quarter profit in revenue. Of the top Deestmates

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<v Speaker 1>and UH, the Russell's steepest decline belongs to l s

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<v Speaker 1>B Industries ticker l x U, the chemical companies, down

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<v Speaker 1>fourteen and a half percent. LSB had a wider second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter loss than analysts expected. Thank you very much, Dave Wilson.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember to send Dave an email at d Wilson at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot net to sign up for his daily free

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<v Speaker 1>email newsletter. Well, you know, Lisa, we've been talking on

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<v Speaker 1>a regular basis about the high cost of real estate

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<v Speaker 1>in places such as Seattle, Silicon Valley as well as Austin, Texas.

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<v Speaker 1>But it appears that there might be a slowdown on

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<v Speaker 1>the way. And here to tell us more about it

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<v Speaker 1>is Pressant Gopal, us real estate reporter from Bloomberg News,

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<v Speaker 1>joining us from our one oh six one Boston Newberry

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<v Speaker 1>Studios in Boston. And you can follow Pressant on Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>at Mr Gopal and are god Paul? Alright? Mr Gopaul?

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us about the potential slowdown in these pretty hot

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<v Speaker 1>real estate areas well. I guess you could say it

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<v Speaker 1>was bound to happen, right, So, prices have just been

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<v Speaker 1>um rising at a very rapid pace for for years now. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they're out pacing uh income growth. It's, you know, more

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<v Speaker 1>than twice income growth right now. So um, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you throw in the increase in mortgage rates, and you

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<v Speaker 1>could see that people who are stretching can only stretch

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<v Speaker 1>so much. All right, So here's what I'm struggling to understand.

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<v Speaker 1>Mortgage rates haven't gone up that much. Uh, and you

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<v Speaker 1>have seen a dearth of inventory in recent years. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what people say. People aren't actually selling their homes. So

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<v Speaker 1>how is this sort of how do you how do

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<v Speaker 1>you sort of prove that it really is mortgage rates

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<v Speaker 1>that's causing the slowdown. Well, I mean it's it's the

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<v Speaker 1>one thing that has changed. But if you think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>mortgage rates. You know, the prices that we had, you

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<v Speaker 1>had the low mortgage rates baked in so on a

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<v Speaker 1>you know, percentage basis percentage point. You know, if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the how much mortgage rates increased in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of what it's done to UM monthly payments, it is

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat significant. And then throwing in the uh, these home prices,

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<v Speaker 1>you could you know, people, especially on the bottom end

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<v Speaker 1>where prices are rising the most, UM, are starting to

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<v Speaker 1>feel that, you know, homebuilder today, UM Politic Group just

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<v Speaker 1>had their earnings and they actually, uh, they had a

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<v Speaker 1>drop in orders and UM they blamed the increase in

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<v Speaker 1>in mortgage rates UM and they said it was that

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<v Speaker 1>they were seeing a slowdown, especially with the first time

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<v Speaker 1>buyers pre Shan. We spoke earlier today with Doug Duncan,

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<v Speaker 1>economist at Fannie May. He said houses that have yet

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<v Speaker 1>to be built are already being purchased that you can't

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<v Speaker 1>find a home. What are your thoughts? Uh, Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's there's some truth to that. So there is a

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<v Speaker 1>real shortage of inventory. So you know, it sounds like

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<v Speaker 1>it conflicts with what I've just been saying. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the inventory levels are very low historically. They're just starting

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<v Speaker 1>to rise now from that very low level. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like, um, you know, maybe we're on the

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<v Speaker 1>cusp of a turning point um where you know, things

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<v Speaker 1>still remain strong, but you know they're they're not uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, prices aren't accelerating. Price coross isn't accelerating anymore

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<v Speaker 1>in inventories which have been just dropping um month after

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<v Speaker 1>month or now starting to rise, especially in the UH

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<v Speaker 1>in the hottest markets. So one thing that I think

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of underlying this discrepancy, maybe we could call it,

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<v Speaker 1>is that there seems to be a two tier market,

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<v Speaker 1>which is affordable homes for people who perhaps are first

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<v Speaker 1>time buyers or who are starting families, and homes that

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<v Speaker 1>sell for more than a million dollars and are in

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<v Speaker 1>urban areas um. And that there seems to be plenty

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<v Speaker 1>of the higher end homes for sale, but the inventory

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<v Speaker 1>of lower end homes, isn't there Is that an accurate

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<v Speaker 1>assessment of what's going on. Yeah, you know, it's actually

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<v Speaker 1>even within the markets, right, So if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>some of those price your markets, Uh, there's a shortage

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<v Speaker 1>of starter homes in those markets. Um. You know, there

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<v Speaker 1>may be more expensive homes in the markets, but there

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<v Speaker 1>aren't as many of the entry level homes. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of what's making it really hard for folks to

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<v Speaker 1>get into, um the housing market. Uh. And prices you

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<v Speaker 1>know are rising much faster on the bottom of those markets,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the lower end homes those persons rising much

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<v Speaker 1>faster than they are for the for the more expensive homes.

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<v Speaker 1>Not just real quick, here are we heading for another

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<v Speaker 1>housing crash? Huh? You know, I wish I had my

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<v Speaker 1>crystal ball, I spend it out. Well, I'm not hearing

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<v Speaker 1>that from a lot of people, so I think a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of at least you know, they were wrong the

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<v Speaker 1>last time, of course, but uh they're saying that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a still a strong economy, and um, this

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<v Speaker 1>is just all an affordability problem. And if prices actually

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<v Speaker 1>fall a little bit, it actually helps because people will

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<v Speaker 1>be able to get back in you might see more

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:21.000
<v Speaker 1>sales as a result. Prosianco Paul, thank you so much

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:22.959
<v Speaker 1>for being with us. Always a pleasure to speak with

0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 1>you in your story today on the Bloomberg was really

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 1>good on this issue. Proshanko Poul's US real estate reporter

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg News. Marijuana is a growing business and a

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.680
<v Speaker 1>growing number of professionals are entering the field in a

0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.280
<v Speaker 1>host of very traditional ways. And here joining us now

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 1>is Richie Gautam. He's executive chairman of M. Harden Group,

0:13:57.960 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 1>which is based in Denver. He's here with us in

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>our and three studios in New York. RICHI, Um, you

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.080
<v Speaker 1>worked at Goldman Sachs, you managed money with a private office.

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.319
<v Speaker 1>You're at the original investor four years ago with M

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:14.200
<v Speaker 1>Hardin Group. Why did you get into this business? So

0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 1>as an investor, we were attracted to the market four

0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:18.760
<v Speaker 1>years ago. It was such a new market and a

0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>developing market within the US, and we had an existing

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>relationship with one of the founders of M Hardin who

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:29.280
<v Speaker 1>brought us into uh into the industry to really understand

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 1>the marketplace and how it was so fragmented from state

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:34.720
<v Speaker 1>by state that we wanted to take advantage of the

0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 1>opportunity by creating what is now known as M Martin

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 1>the management company, and the industry being marijuana mostly medical

0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:46.520
<v Speaker 1>or everything predominantly medical. Today it's obviously changing with more

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 1>recreational coming online, but our business today over is focused

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 1>on the medical market. Tell people about your business, what

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 1>actually do you do. M Martin's a management company. So

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 1>we started the business managing cannabis assets on behalf of

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 1>license owners. So anyone who came into the industry and

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.160
<v Speaker 1>got a license, whether it was Colorado or other states,

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 1>frankly didn't have the operational background to run a cannabis asset. Really,

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 1>no one had that background coming into the space in

0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.280
<v Speaker 1>the legal framework. So M Hardan set up a management

0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:17.080
<v Speaker 1>company to come in and operate the assets turn key

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.840
<v Speaker 1>on behalf of the license owner. So not too dissimilar

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.840
<v Speaker 1>from a real estate owner hiring a Marriott or Starwood

0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 1>to come in with a flag and operate a turnkey hotel.

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 1>So our hotel flag was the original genesis of the business. So,

0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>for example, you have actual workers that are employed by

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.760
<v Speaker 1>M Hardan that are working in green houses, that are

0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 1>working in retail establishments. There's three D sixty two employees

0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 1>across the US managing cultivation, processing, and retail facilities and cannabis.

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.880
<v Speaker 1>And for cultivation it's indoor grows, outdoor and greenhouse facilities.

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.720
<v Speaker 1>How big do you think the marijuana industry could become

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.800
<v Speaker 1>in the US if the recreational aspect is legalized? So

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 1>the numbers point to a seven billion or so industry

0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 1>size today in the US that's growing to billion over

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the next few years. We also have exposure to Canada,

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.680
<v Speaker 1>which is about a half a billion dollar industry today

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.320
<v Speaker 1>growing to six or seven billion. That growth is really

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.520
<v Speaker 1>predicated by the opening of the recreational market in those

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 1>in those states and jurisdictions. So so long as recreational

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.400
<v Speaker 1>opens up the way that we expect it to, you'll

0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.560
<v Speaker 1>have that lift. So one big question is, once you

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>do get a legalization, what stops the Philip morris Is

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 1>of the world from plowing right into this field and

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 1>using their vast distribution and cultivation networks to blow everybody

0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>else out of the water. And what would you say

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 1>to that Philip Morris doesn't grow cannabis, And growing cannabis

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 1>is a real specialty commodity. It takes a lot of

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 1>experience and and efficiencies to bring product to market. So

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 1>many folks outside looking into this space really think it's

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.160
<v Speaker 1>just a plant, you grow it, and really don't put

0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 1>a quantum of risk on on what it takes to

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.840
<v Speaker 1>bring product to market. We have mastered that says of

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:05.400
<v Speaker 1>bringing legal cannabis to the market, passing health standards, optimizing

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:08.639
<v Speaker 1>space capture, and all of these production facilities. Our business

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.159
<v Speaker 1>has produced and sold. Our license facilities are produced and

0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.240
<v Speaker 1>sold over one hundred thousand ms of this product since

0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 1>we started. That's a number that no one can match.

0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 1>And that includes Philip Moore's. Now you've got the different segments, right,

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 1>you have cultivation, yes, processing, and then ultimate retail sale.

0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:32.520
<v Speaker 1>How do you scientifically or technically offer consistency across all

0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:36.080
<v Speaker 1>that are there testing facilities or like in any kind

0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:38.680
<v Speaker 1>of let's say drug you know from the pharmaceutical industry,

0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:40.520
<v Speaker 1>you want to make sure that what you're buying from

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.520
<v Speaker 1>one pill bottle is the same as you're getting from

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>another pill bottle. All right, that's a great question. So

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 1>the genesis of our businesses on the cultivation side, we

0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.639
<v Speaker 1>were cultivators first. We we had we bolted on the

0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 1>processing expertise, and we bolted on the retail management side

0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.640
<v Speaker 1>over the years. Cultivation is the driver of the consistency,

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.959
<v Speaker 1>and our facilities that we've stood up, whether it's in

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 1>Hawaii or in Halifax, have a very standardized approach to operations,

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:11.719
<v Speaker 1>to production and ultimately the consistency of the product. Folks

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:13.919
<v Speaker 1>right now have more of a niche approach where you

0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.719
<v Speaker 1>have one particular facility type in California another in Colorado.

0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.160
<v Speaker 1>We've standardized the process of bringing product to market, which

0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:26.080
<v Speaker 1>ultimately will yield to pharmaceutical products with consistency, recreational products

0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:30.119
<v Speaker 1>with consistency across multiple jurisdictions. So you're planning currently in

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>initial public offering and you've raised money, certainly in the

0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.920
<v Speaker 1>debt markets. I'm just wondering, does the fact that you're

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:41.720
<v Speaker 1>dealing with a currently mostly illegal substance complicate your fundraising abilities?

0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 1>Not necessarily complicated. And we've been obviously as an investor

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:48.440
<v Speaker 1>in this business four years ago and understanding the nuances

0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.120
<v Speaker 1>of the industry. What we've done is take the knowledge

0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>of how to raise capital in general from prior experiences

0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.399
<v Speaker 1>and other industries and just a general landscape of capital

0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:00.920
<v Speaker 1>sources today and we've really focused are in tris in Canada.

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Canada is where we're going to list. Canada is our

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.800
<v Speaker 1>h for all intents and purposes are booking center and

0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:08.760
<v Speaker 1>the booking center for many of these cannabis companies that

0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>are public today. So we've spent the last year and

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:15.880
<v Speaker 1>a half um putting together our Canadian capital market strategy.

0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:19.280
<v Speaker 1>Of our company today is owned by Canadian institutions long

0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 1>only money that have really had limited experience in the cannabispace,

0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.639
<v Speaker 1>but they bought our opportunity because it's a managing company.

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:30.840
<v Speaker 1>We have actual revenue, actual earnings, actual operational experience. So

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.120
<v Speaker 1>we've already planted an institutional shareholder base in our company.

0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.000
<v Speaker 1>We've already planted the Canadian landscape there and that's where

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 1>the source of capital has come from, and that's where

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.880
<v Speaker 1>we will be listed. RI should just give you about

0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:45.160
<v Speaker 1>twenty seconds here. What's the biggest mistake people make when

0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:48.280
<v Speaker 1>they hear about investing in the cannabis industry and they

0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.520
<v Speaker 1>want to get into it understanding that there's a difference

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:54.600
<v Speaker 1>between a license owner and an asset manager. So there

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.160
<v Speaker 1>are plenty of companies out there that own licenses. Very

0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.280
<v Speaker 1>few of them actually have the operational expertise to scale

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>their businesses, and that's what we have. I want to

0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:05.399
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for joining us. Richid is the

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:08.719
<v Speaker 1>executive chairman of m hard Dean Group. They are based

0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:13.440
<v Speaker 1>in Denver, giving us details about raising capital and the

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:31.359
<v Speaker 1>intricacies of the legal cannabis industry. A rocky period for

0:20:31.440 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>the automobile industry. There has been widespread disruption on a

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>variety of levels. We have tariffs, we have the peak

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Auto sort of meme that's been going around here to

0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:47.119
<v Speaker 1>talk about all that is. Scott Painter, founder of Fair

0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:52.080
<v Speaker 1>f a i R. Based in Santa Monica, California. Um, Scott,

0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 1>you are the former chief executive and founder of True Car.

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:57.600
<v Speaker 1>Can you just tell us before we get into a

0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:01.360
<v Speaker 1>wood summer calling Carmen Geddon which was yesterday, UM, can

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.960
<v Speaker 1>you just explain what is fair? Sure? Fair is an

0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 1>app that represents a completely new form of ownership. It's

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:10.560
<v Speaker 1>a way to get a car on your phone, and

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 1>you subscribe to it in the same way that you

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:17.119
<v Speaker 1>get your your data, your content, your music, your movies.

0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 1>But there's no long term commitment. You just simply download

0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 1>the app, scan your driver's license, link a form of

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 1>payment shop and you can sign with your finger. So, Scott,

0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:28.639
<v Speaker 1>the reason why I wanted to start with the model

0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:32.479
<v Speaker 1>of your business is because it sort of points to

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 1>a real seismic shift in the automobile industry. Do you

0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:40.160
<v Speaker 1>think that the weakness that we're seeing today, certainly led

0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 1>by Ford, but also in GM and Chrysler, do you

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:47.640
<v Speaker 1>think that the weakness really comes as much from this

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:54.120
<v Speaker 1>changing model of car ownership as it does from tariffs. Well,

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:55.960
<v Speaker 1>I think that this is a really interesting time to

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:58.359
<v Speaker 1>be in the auto industry. If you're an incumbent automaker,

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:00.919
<v Speaker 1>you're certainly thinking about how do you regain the trust

0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:04.120
<v Speaker 1>and the relationship with modern consumers who have almost binarily

0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.240
<v Speaker 1>said they don't want to go into a dealership and

0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:08.719
<v Speaker 1>do battle. They don't want the long term commitment. So

0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:13.119
<v Speaker 1>I think you're seeing all sorts of new business models arrive, arise,

0:22:13.280 --> 0:22:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and you've got a lot of diversification happening, happening. I

0:22:16.520 --> 0:22:19.040
<v Speaker 1>think most of the carmakers at this point are almost

0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.640
<v Speaker 1>invested in just about any new ownership model that comes

0:22:22.680 --> 0:22:25.439
<v Speaker 1>up on the horizon. Just recently we saw you know,

0:22:25.560 --> 0:22:27.480
<v Speaker 1>GM in er the peer to peer market as well,

0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 1>which is, you know, sort of a big question mark

0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:31.639
<v Speaker 1>as to whether or not customers are going to go

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.200
<v Speaker 1>for it, but it does show that they are willing

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 1>to be flexible and explore options that they never would

0:22:36.920 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 1>have before. Now you have been in the autumn more

0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:43.359
<v Speaker 1>of connected to the automobile industry in one way or

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:47.199
<v Speaker 1>another since you were fourteen years old, correct, You know,

0:22:47.280 --> 0:22:51.000
<v Speaker 1>I think that great entrepreneurs and great companies solve real problems.

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>I think the problem of buying and owning a car

0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:57.919
<v Speaker 1>is something that really technology can offer a great solution for.

0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 1>And I do think that, you know, it should be simpler,

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:02.600
<v Speaker 1>it should be more accessible, and I think you know,

0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:06.879
<v Speaker 1>technology can offer that and delivered incredible savings. All right.

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:08.840
<v Speaker 1>What I was going with that is, do you believe

0:23:08.840 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 1>over the course of your career that the large automobile

0:23:12.600 --> 0:23:16.679
<v Speaker 1>manufacturers such as four GM and now Fiat Chrysler, have

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:20.119
<v Speaker 1>they been leaders or are they followers when it comes

0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:24.679
<v Speaker 1>to connecting with customers. Well, I think historically they have

0:23:24.800 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>not been leaders. I think that right now though, they

0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:31.200
<v Speaker 1>are absolutely leading and innovating and doing almost anything they

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>can to reset that relationship with our consumers. So it

0:23:34.960 --> 0:23:39.080
<v Speaker 1>is a time where the smartphone and technology and transparency

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>have really created a real transformational opportunity. And I think

0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:47.879
<v Speaker 1>that companies like Tesla and Uber and all of this

0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:52.119
<v Speaker 1>have really changed the paradigm where it's no longer just

0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:56.120
<v Speaker 1>about making a good product, it is about really shaping

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:59.120
<v Speaker 1>that relationship and how you buy and how you engage

0:23:59.160 --> 0:24:01.160
<v Speaker 1>the car, and so new ownership models like what we're

0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:03.480
<v Speaker 1>building at fair I think, really have a lot to

0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 1>do with it. Certainly, there's a lot of exogenous stuff

0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:09.119
<v Speaker 1>tariffs and the industry and the health of the industry

0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:11.879
<v Speaker 1>that are certainly affecting all of this, But keep in

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:15.120
<v Speaker 1>mind there's also a new and a used car business.

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:18.399
<v Speaker 1>The used car business by dollar volume is twice as

0:24:18.440 --> 0:24:21.440
<v Speaker 1>big as the new car business, and by velocity it's

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:23.600
<v Speaker 1>three times larger. So what are you seeing in the

0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:26.560
<v Speaker 1>used car market right now? Well, right now, I think

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:28.560
<v Speaker 1>we're getting to a place where we've got really great

0:24:28.600 --> 0:24:30.840
<v Speaker 1>information if you're a buyer for a used car, though,

0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:33.400
<v Speaker 1>the used car prices are coming down. In fact, over

0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 1>the last twelve months we've seen used car wholesale and

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 1>retail pricing drop more ratably than we have over the

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:45.879
<v Speaker 1>last one thirty years, almost a decline, and that's in

0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:49.199
<v Speaker 1>large part because we've been at peak production for the

0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>last three or four years, and that's creating an oversupply situation.

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 1>We almost make seventeen million cars. On the new car

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:58.040
<v Speaker 1>side here in the US, We're going to see six

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:01.320
<v Speaker 1>million lease returns coming back into the market over the

0:25:01.320 --> 0:25:03.679
<v Speaker 1>next twelve to eighteen months, and that will have a

0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 1>continued effect on retail and wholesale pricing of used cars,

0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:10.479
<v Speaker 1>and that will make used cars a greater value than

0:25:10.520 --> 0:25:13.400
<v Speaker 1>they've been over the last decade. Scott, what does that

0:25:13.480 --> 0:25:17.280
<v Speaker 1>mean though about where we are in this auto market?

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, does this sort of give steam to the

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 1>peak auto discussions that we're hearing well? I think that

0:25:24.920 --> 0:25:27.479
<v Speaker 1>there's no question that if you look at demand for

0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:30.399
<v Speaker 1>cars over a long period of time, it tends to

0:25:30.440 --> 0:25:33.480
<v Speaker 1>be very linear, but the industry itself tends to also

0:25:33.520 --> 0:25:37.600
<v Speaker 1>behave very cyclically. We go from a peak production and

0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 1>say two thousand, you know, six seven, where we are

0:25:40.600 --> 0:25:43.720
<v Speaker 1>making almost sixteen million cars, down to a low of

0:25:44.280 --> 0:25:47.000
<v Speaker 1>almost nine million cars in two thousand nine and ten,

0:25:47.400 --> 0:25:49.639
<v Speaker 1>and then now we're back up at historic highs of

0:25:49.720 --> 0:25:53.440
<v Speaker 1>seventeen plus million cars being produced. So when those cycles

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:55.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of come through the industry, they have a massive

0:25:56.000 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 1>impact on whether we are buying new cars or buying

0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 1>used cars. And then you also have very interesting financial contracts,

0:26:03.560 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 1>Whereas in two thousand and nine to get the industry

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:10.320
<v Speaker 1>going again in terms of volume, we actually introduced and

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:14.880
<v Speaker 1>overweighted on leasing. Today almost of premium and luxury luxury

0:26:14.920 --> 0:26:20.480
<v Speaker 1>cars are leased. Scott, is there, Ah, Is there a

0:26:20.520 --> 0:26:24.840
<v Speaker 1>model that Tesla is following that you believe will ultimately

0:26:24.920 --> 0:26:28.400
<v Speaker 1>have to change or can you envision that the industry

0:26:28.440 --> 0:26:31.920
<v Speaker 1>is going to follow the Tesla model? Well, I think

0:26:31.920 --> 0:26:34.439
<v Speaker 1>that Tesla is sort of leaning in this direction. But

0:26:34.520 --> 0:26:37.119
<v Speaker 1>I think that the way that we all go to

0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:39.280
<v Speaker 1>the bank to borrow a big pile of money to

0:26:39.400 --> 0:26:42.119
<v Speaker 1>buy a depreciating asset is really what has to change.

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:46.879
<v Speaker 1>You've got almost one point five billion cars on planet

0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:51.119
<v Speaker 1>or carrying five trillion dollars of consumer automotive debt, and

0:26:51.160 --> 0:26:54.560
<v Speaker 1>it's the worst financial decision free somebody just getting started

0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:56.760
<v Speaker 1>in life, or somebody who has maybe got a spotty

0:26:56.760 --> 0:26:59.119
<v Speaker 1>payment history or is in financial trouble or is just

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:01.960
<v Speaker 1>building a family to go out and get into debt

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:05.440
<v Speaker 1>in order to get transportation and the thing they need

0:27:05.480 --> 0:27:07.840
<v Speaker 1>to get a job or to get around. So I

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:11.639
<v Speaker 1>think the model of ownership fundamentally does have to change

0:27:11.720 --> 0:27:15.320
<v Speaker 1>because the you know, it's not just a convenience issue,

0:27:15.359 --> 0:27:17.840
<v Speaker 1>it's just a bad financial bargain to go out and

0:27:17.880 --> 0:27:20.919
<v Speaker 1>borrowed a bunch of money tipped by a depreciating asset.

0:27:21.640 --> 0:27:24.920
<v Speaker 1>And finally, Scott, what kind of car do you drive?

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:28.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, I've got about four cars all from Fair.

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:33.040
<v Speaker 1>And you know this, this model really works for anybody.

0:27:33.040 --> 0:27:35.199
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't matter whether you have great credit and just

0:27:35.240 --> 0:27:37.879
<v Speaker 1>want convenience and you're an early adopter or you're somebody

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:40.040
<v Speaker 1>who's really working a couple of jobs and struggling and

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:43.600
<v Speaker 1>on a budget. Um. But I've got right now, four kids,

0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.440
<v Speaker 1>and I've got different cars for different different things, but

0:27:46.480 --> 0:27:49.520
<v Speaker 1>they're all cars that I subscribed to through Fair. Thank

0:27:49.560 --> 0:27:51.879
<v Speaker 1>you very much for being with us. Scott Painter is

0:27:51.920 --> 0:27:55.640
<v Speaker 1>the founder of Fair. They are based in Santa Monica, California.

0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:59.240
<v Speaker 1>He is the former chief executive and the founder of

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:04.480
<v Speaker 1>True Are. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and

0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:07.640
<v Speaker 1>L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at

0:28:07.680 --> 0:28:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform. You prefer. I'm

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 1>pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on

0:28:15.640 --> 0:28:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You

0:28:18.920 --> 0:28:21.440
<v Speaker 1>can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio