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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Boomberg Day AQ podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty first of October. I'm Caroline Hepka in London and.

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Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, Donald Trump casts

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Speaker 3: doubt on Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia as the US

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Speaker 3: and EU take different paths on sanctioning Moscow.

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Speaker 2: The United States signs a deal with Australia for access

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Speaker 2: to rare earths and other minerals, as Washington tries to

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Speaker 2: count at China's grip on key raw materials.

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Speaker 3: Plus, after fifteen hours of global internet disruption, Amazon Web

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Speaker 3: Services says it's fixed the issue that plagued it's cloud customers.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: US President Donald Trump has cast doubt on Ukraine's ability

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Speaker 3: to defeat Russian forces, marking a dramatic shift from his

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Speaker 3: view that the country could reclaim all of its territory.

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Speaker 3: The change in position comes as Trump for a second

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Speaker 3: summits with Vladimir Putin in Budapest. Speaking to reporters in

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Speaker 3: the White House, Trump said he was unsure how the

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Speaker 3: war would play out.

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Speaker 4: They could still win it.

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Speaker 5: I don't think they will, but they could still win it.

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Speaker 5: I never said they would win it. I said they

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Speaker 5: could win. Anything can happen, you know. War is a

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Speaker 5: very strange thing. A lot of bad things happen, a

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Speaker 5: lot of good things happen.

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Speaker 3: The US President has repeatedly changed his assessment of Ukraine's

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Speaker 3: prospects and the extent of his support for the country's president,

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Speaker 3: Vladimir Zelenski. Last month, Trump said that Ukraine was quote

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Speaker 3: in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine

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Speaker 3: back in its original form. I Meanwhile, the US Senate

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Speaker 3: will hold off considering new sanctions on Russia until after

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Speaker 3: Trump's meeting with Putin. It's a sign of further divergence

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Speaker 3: with European leaders, who are expected to adopt a fresh

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Speaker 3: Russia sanctions package this week. He's Foreign Affairs chief, Kayakalas

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Speaker 3: says Ukraine must negotiate an end to the war from

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Speaker 3: a position of strength.

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Speaker 1: Ukraine has been ready for unconditional ceasefire already since February,

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Speaker 1: but Russia has no genuine interest in peace. We all

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Speaker 1: support Bresid Trump's efforts to end the war, but Putin

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Speaker 1: will only negotiate seriously. If he thinks he's losing, that's.

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Speaker 3: The use Kayakala speaking. The Ukraine's of Latimore Zelenski has

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Speaker 3: said he'd consider an invitation to Budapest. EU foreign ministers

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Speaker 3: have criticize the choice of venue, Francis Foreign Minister saying

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Speaker 3: the presence of Latimir Putin on EU soil only makes

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Speaker 3: sense if it allows for an immediate ceasefire without conditions.

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Speaker 2: The UK is preparing to send well over one hundred

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Speaker 2: million pounds to send its forces into Ukraine if a

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Speaker 2: ceasefar agreement with Russia is reached. It comes as Britain

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Speaker 2: and other European allies are planning to station troops in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine after a peace deal is signed, but away from

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Speaker 2: front lines. The UK's Defense Secretary John Healy says that

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Speaker 2: the cost would cover the initial outlay for troops as

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Speaker 2: well as aircraft for a stabilization force. It's separate for

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Speaker 2: the four and a half billion pounds already promise by

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Speaker 2: the government. Healey also announced that the UK is drawing

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Speaker 2: up new legal powers to shoot down drones over military bases.

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian President Vlodimer Zelinski, meanwhile, will attend talks of the

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Speaker 2: so called Coalition of the Willing in London on Friday,

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Speaker 2: after European leaders hold a summit in Brussels on Thursday.

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Speaker 3: The United States and Australia have signed a pact to

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Speaker 3: increase America's access to rare earths and other critical minerals

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Speaker 3: in a deal to counter China's control over supply chain's.

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Speaker 3: Shares of critical mineral producers have jumped in Sydney after

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Speaker 3: President Trump signed the agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 3: Albanesi in Washington. Here is Australia's Treasurer Jim chalmer Is

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Speaker 3: speaking to Bloomberg after the deal was signed.

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Speaker 6: And what that's all about is about helping to ensure

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Speaker 6: Australia becomes a world later in the export of rare

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Speaker 6: earths and critical minerals. It's all about making sure that

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Speaker 6: we strengthen our trade ties with the US that way

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Speaker 6: strengthen supply chains, and that we make sure that this

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Speaker 6: remarkable opportunity that Australia has with rare earths and critical

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Speaker 6: minerals is properly maximized.

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Speaker 3: The deal will begin with the US and Australia each

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Speaker 3: paying more than a billion dollars over the next six

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Speaker 3: months for initial projects. Meanwhile, President Trump also declared full

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Speaker 3: steam ahead for the Ocus Security pack to Defense deal

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Speaker 3: signed by the US, UK and Australia in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 3: designed to counter China's military expansion in the Indo Pacific region.

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Speaker 2: Now, Sanai Takeichi has become Japan's first female prime minister

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Speaker 2: after winning a vote in the lower house of parliament.

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Speaker 2: She's now preparing to form her cabinet, which is expected

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Speaker 2: to be announced later today. Takei she faces an immediate

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Speaker 2: diplomatic test, with a possible visit to Japan by US

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Speaker 2: person Donald Trump next week. At home, the challenge challenge

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Speaker 2: will be to revive her ruling LDP's fading popularity and

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Speaker 2: easy public anger over the rising cost of living.

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Speaker 3: Amazon Web Services, the world's largest cloud provider, said its

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Speaker 3: operations have returned to normal after an Internet outage disrupted

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Speaker 3: many of the world's biggest websites and apps. It follows

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Speaker 3: a fifteen hour blackout that hit customers across the globe,

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Speaker 3: from government agencies to financial platforms. The episode highlighted how

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Speaker 3: much of the Internet is dependent on the operations of

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Speaker 3: a single company. Bloomberg's Sarah Friar spoke after operations were restored.

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Speaker 7: They have third of a cloud computing market. A large

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Speaker 7: number of services are entirely reliant on that being operational.

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Speaker 7: It really is noticed, and it's simultaneously a moment to

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Speaker 7: recognize how powerful this company has become and how vulnerable

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Speaker 7: these services are to its disruption.

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Speaker 3: AWS blamed the outit on a malfunction and a key

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Speaker 3: database system that caused failures across its data centers on

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Speaker 3: the US East Coast. The company's largest hub.

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Speaker 2: Shares in French bank BNP Paribab plummeted by almost eight

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Speaker 2: percent after a US cord ruling linked it to human

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Speaker 2: rights abuses in Soudan. The ruling has triggered speculation that

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Speaker 2: the lender will ultimately have to pay billions of dollars

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Speaker 2: to settle related cases. On Friday, a jury in Manhattan

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Speaker 2: found the bank liable for its role in enabling genocide

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Speaker 2: in Sudan and awarded about twenty one million dollars to

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Speaker 2: three plaintiffs that scene as opening the door to potentially

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Speaker 2: thousands of other claims. In a statement, BNP Paribab denied

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Speaker 2: it's under pressure to settle and says that it intends

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Speaker 2: to appeal the ruling, which it says, quote ignores important

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Speaker 2: evidence the bank was not permitted to introduce. So those

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Speaker 2: are some of our top stories for you this morning.

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Speaker 2: In terms of the markets this Tuesday, we do have

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Speaker 2: a global stock rally, although stock futures for the US

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Speaker 2: and Europe a bit mixed. U stock twifty futures up

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Speaker 2: by about a tenth of one percent, and what we

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Speaker 2: are seeing is a big jump in Japanese stocks, adding

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Speaker 2: to record highs. The NIK two two five up seven

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Speaker 2: tens of one percent, close to fifty thousand, so edging

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Speaker 2: towards that earnings are in focus today in the US,

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Speaker 2: gold yesterday climbed two and a half percent this morning,

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Speaker 2: taking something of a breather, but we're still near record highs.

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Speaker 2: Rare Earth companies in Australia jumping after that US Aussie deal.

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Speaker 2: Tenia treasury yields this morning below four percent. We have

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Speaker 2: falling oil prices, easing concerns about inflation. Tenire treasury yields

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Speaker 2: this morning trading at three ninety eight. Those are the markets. Well.

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Speaker 3: In a moment, we'll bring you more on Donald Trump's

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Speaker 3: latest comments on Ukraine, plus details of the critical minerals

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Speaker 3: deal between the US and Australia. But another story that

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Speaker 3: we've been reading this morning about the Louver raid just

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Speaker 3: seven minutes to steal those precious jewels from the French museum.

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Speaker 3: But it's actually the third heist from a French museum

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Speaker 3: this year. Our opinion columns, Leonella Rant writes act it's

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Speaker 3: an indication of a broader trend essentially, because we're more cashless,

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Speaker 3: there are fewer banks to rob or registers to empty.

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Speaker 3: So Leonel argues that in fact instead thieves are turning

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Speaker 3: to gold or other precious materials to try and reach

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Speaker 3: raise cash essentially, And you know, it raises a whole

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Speaker 3: load of questions, of course about the security, particularly French museums,

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Speaker 3: given there have been three in the past month, although

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Speaker 3: he points out that there have been other tests as well,

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Speaker 3: from the likes of the Drands Museum and the Netherlands

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Speaker 3: and even going back a couple of.

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Speaker 4: Years the British Museum too.

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Speaker 3: But there, you know, this is something that could be

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Speaker 3: a new trend in crime.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The awful thing though, of course, is that these

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Speaker 2: museums are the embodiment of soft power of history and

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Speaker 2: culture that Europe prides itself on you know, sells itself

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Speaker 2: as a tourist destination for so I think yes, there

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Speaker 2: are fingers being pointed in terms of the security, real

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Speaker 2: worries about what that means for other museums, and also

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Speaker 2: that Leonnel says museums are going to have to be

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Speaker 2: much more careful about how they kind of crudely might

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Speaker 2: be luring visitors with the value of their exhibits. I mean,

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Speaker 2: look the Tower of London. Are they stepping up security?

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Speaker 4: I mean this is famously well guarded.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my speculation, but you know, obviously with the duels there.

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Speaker 2: But I do think the Kasha Society point is fascinating

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Speaker 2: that banks don't hold as much in their vaults. So

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Speaker 2: maybe these these crooks are looking elsewhere.

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Speaker 3: More danger money for the beef heaters in the Tower London,

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Speaker 3: maybe given them these difficult times for museums. Anyway, you

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Speaker 3: can read the full place Bloomberg dot com for its

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Speaker 3: Lash opinion, and we will put a link to it

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Speaker 3: and our podcast show notes. Let's bring you more now

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Speaker 3: on our top story on Ukraine. Whether or not the

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Speaker 3: country accepts Donald Trump's peacemaking, it may be at risk

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Speaker 3: from the US President's changing stance on the war. Tony

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Speaker 3: Hapner leads our team covering Russia joins US. Now for

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Speaker 3: more Tony, this is another ship and possession from Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump on Ukraine. It seems to have reversed. It is

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Speaker 3: this pressure on Ukraine rather than on Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 8: Yes, good morning, I mean this seems to be one

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Speaker 8: of the difficulties in the transactional approach that President Trump

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Speaker 8: has to this war for Ukraine and Europeans. It means

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Speaker 8: that he's constantly switching positions, and he currently seems to

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Speaker 8: be in a position where he's not actually providing much

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Speaker 8: in the way of military aid to Ukraine and at

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Speaker 8: the same time not putting much pressure or indeed any

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Speaker 8: pressure on Vladimir Putin to come to the table to negotiate.

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Speaker 8: So the leverage points seem unclear to Ukraine and to Europe,

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Speaker 8: and that just leaves Putin in many ways free to

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Speaker 8: continue to conduct his war, and he has shown no

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Speaker 8: inclination to do otherwise.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And so also, of course there will be potentially in

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Speaker 2: the next few weeks a second summit and Vladimir puting

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Speaker 2: on European soil, which has caused a lot of pushback,

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Speaker 2: I mean in terms of the piece, thea piece getting

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Speaker 2: to peace. Bloomberg's Mark Champion, in his opinion column today,

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Speaker 2: which I think is fascinating, calls it Putin's poison pill deal.

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Speaker 2: President Trump pushing Ukraine to seed about thirty percent of

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Speaker 2: the Donets province, which is a huge kind of swathe

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Speaker 2: of land, and that that is very strategically crucial to

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and actually to Europe. Can you explain that that

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Speaker 2: that's the extraordinary point here, Yes.

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Speaker 8: And that's the reason Ukraine is very unwilling to even

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Speaker 8: contemplate this idea of giving up Doniette. Donetsk is a

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Speaker 8: fortified area of eastern Ukraine. There are cities there which

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Speaker 8: Ukraine has fortified and held on to throughout this war.

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Speaker 8: And seeding that territy would effectively be handing over those

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Speaker 8: fortified areas to Putin on a plate. And that opens

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Speaker 8: up then other areas of Ukraine which are much less

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Speaker 8: well defended and fortified. So the argument from Kiev all

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Speaker 8: along is that this leads us vulnerable to Putin coming

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Speaker 8: back later once he's reinvigorated his army, to starting again

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Speaker 8: a war that we are finding it then much more

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Speaker 8: difficult to defend, and he will be able to make

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Speaker 8: more progress and take more territory in Ukraine, and that

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Speaker 8: clearly is against our national interests. And as Mark points

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Speaker 8: out in his very interesting piece, Putin is asking for

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Speaker 8: two thirds of the territory that he has managed to

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Speaker 8: take in more than three years of war and at

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Speaker 8: the cost of hundreds of thousands of casualties. So it's

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Speaker 8: no small ask and he's well aware of that.

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Speaker 4: What can the Europeans do now?

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Speaker 3: There are meetings this Turrisday and Friday in Brussels and

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Speaker 3: in London, the European Council and the Coalition of the Willing.

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Speaker 3: They'll be talking about sanctions and other diversions in position

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Speaker 3: from the US, and also this issue of using frozen

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Speaker 3: Russian assets.

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Speaker 8: Yes, I think the Europeans are somewhat in despair, because

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Speaker 8: first they need to figure out how to influence the

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Speaker 8: meeting if it takes place between President Trump and Putin

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Speaker 8: in Budapest. Victor Auburn is not Brussels's favorite leader in

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Speaker 8: the European Union. He's viewed as a much more Russia

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Speaker 8: friendly leader. He will host these talks and Ukraine's allies

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Speaker 8: are still trying to work out how they can get

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Speaker 8: some influence at that meeting in order to divert President

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Speaker 8: Trump away from giving things that might be too damaging

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Speaker 8: for Ukraine. That leaves them with things like sanctions, with

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Speaker 8: things like trying to use the frozen assets to buy

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Speaker 8: more weapons and bolster Ukraine. But they're pretty gloomy as

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Speaker 8: things stand at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Tony, thank you so much for being with us

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Speaker 2: this morning and discussing the latest when it comes to Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Tony Halpin leads Bloomberg's team covering Russia. Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg daybaqube coming up after this.

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Speaker 3: The United States and Australia have agreed a deal to

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Speaker 3: boost America's access to rare earth. It's an effort to

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Speaker 3: counter China's grip on the supply chains of key metals,

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Speaker 3: our metals, and minings. Reporter Paul Anhant joins us.

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Speaker 4: Now for more.

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Speaker 3: Great to have you with us, talk us through for

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Speaker 3: our Well, what's in this deal between the US and Australia.

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Speaker 9: Well, I guess at the heart of it. For the

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Speaker 9: last decade, the West is really it's set in its hands.

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Speaker 9: When it came to building out capacity and rare earths

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Speaker 9: and other critical minerals. So now China has between an

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Speaker 9: eighty to ninety percent share of the supply chain, so

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Speaker 9: in some instances it's even as high as nineteen nine percent,

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Speaker 9: So of course that's been a huge concern for the US. Overnight,

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Speaker 9: they announced that they'd spend a billion dollars each. That's

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Speaker 9: the Australian and the US government a billion dollars each

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Speaker 9: on critical minerals projects. There's been two rare earth companies

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Speaker 9: in that inc non binding agreements for hundreds of millions

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Speaker 9: of dollars. A Referra Rare Earths and Northern Minerals Limited.

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Speaker 9: Global Aluminium Giant ol CoA also announced it would receive

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Speaker 9: funds to process something called gallium at its Australian refineries

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Speaker 9: and also in their traffic Gura's Australian are near start

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Speaker 9: to produce a middle that isn't and talked about called antimony,

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Speaker 9: one of those minor midles that we never really hear about.

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Speaker 9: All of this is to challenge China's dominance, which really

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Speaker 9: has the US and the West more broadly concerned.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so in terms of the funding, I mean a

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Speaker 2: billion dollar project is a lot. What are the terms

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Speaker 2: of where the funding is going to go and how

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Speaker 2: much of a difference this is going to actually make

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Speaker 2: to the supply of critical minerals to the US.

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Speaker 9: It's an interesting point. A lot of these projects actually

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Speaker 9: aren't up and running yet. They're not even they're not commissioned,

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Speaker 9: they're not producing anything. In fact, a lot of them

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Speaker 9: are what we term shove already, so they're ready to

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Speaker 9: be built, but they're going to take twenty six months,

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Speaker 9: two years, three years to build. The funds will go

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Speaker 9: to these companies in helping them construct or take them

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Speaker 9: down the next step of the road, whether that be

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Speaker 9: more feasibility studies or actually building these projects. In the

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Speaker 9: grand scheme of things, just how far does two billion

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Speaker 9: dollars go insuring up the US's domestic supply critical minerals. Well,

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Speaker 9: it's a little bit unclear. What we do know is

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Speaker 9: that critical minerals projects so rare earth's lithium, that sort

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Speaker 9: of stuff, They are really high KPEX, so we spend

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Speaker 9: a lot of money. It's not like iron or it's

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Speaker 9: not like coal where you can just dig up rock

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Speaker 9: and process it. This requires a lot of chemistry, a

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Speaker 9: lot of engineering skill, so yes, a lot more capital intensity.

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Speaker 9: They do cost billions of dollars in themselves, so at

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Speaker 9: two billion dollars, you know just how many projects will

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Speaker 9: get over the line. It really remains to be seen.

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Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 3: You're morning brief on the stories making news from London

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Speaker 4: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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