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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: A discussion with someone where all of global Wall Street

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Speaker 3: loans forward. Ian Lincoln is the demon capital. And of

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Speaker 3: course on the bond markets, you got Belski's optimism on equities.

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Speaker 3: You know all that Ian lingoln on the percent effect

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Speaker 3: right now, Ian, thank you so much for joining. Do

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Speaker 3: you have a vector in place as you did six

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Speaker 3: months nine months ago, of a ten year yield that

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Speaker 3: will slide below four percent?

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Speaker 4: Yes, I still see the path of least resistance fourteen

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Speaker 4: year yields being lower, not higher. And I think that

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Speaker 4: the decision about the Treasury Secretary has been appropriately read

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Speaker 4: as a net positive for the bond market. I think

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Speaker 4: that this particular move does have a little bit further

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Speaker 4: to run. But I don't see tens going to five.

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Speaker 4: I see us going below four percent.

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Speaker 3: Four point two nine percent right now is a handle

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Speaker 3: on ten year yield exactly.

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Speaker 5: Tom So in how do you think this fed is

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Speaker 5: going to perceive here, proceed here with this December meeting

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Speaker 5: coming up here, given some of the economic data that

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Speaker 5: we've seen already, we're going to get some PCE data

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Speaker 5: later this week on Wednesday. How do you think this

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Speaker 5: Fed's going to move here?

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Speaker 4: Well, I do think they're going to cut twenty five

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Speaker 4: basis points in December. They also going to offer a

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Speaker 4: new updated dot plot, and I think that that's the

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Speaker 4: biggest risk, and that's because the debate in the market

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Speaker 4: at the moment is whether or not terminal should be

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Speaker 4: revised higher simply because of the results of the election.

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Speaker 4: The FED has told us that it's too soon for

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Speaker 4: such a change, and so I suspect that the market

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Speaker 4: will get a cut if nothing else.

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Speaker 5: How about going forward here? I mean again, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 5: the election has had a material impact on this market

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Speaker 5: and on the economic outlook of a lot of participants

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Speaker 5: in this market. How do you think the election may

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Speaker 5: or may not impact kind of where this FED goes?

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Speaker 4: Well, at a minimum, the FED has already acknowledged in

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Speaker 4: the process of normalizing rates, and there's a very big

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Speaker 4: difference from the Fed's perspective between normalizing and easing the

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Speaker 4: economic data is unreasonably strong footing, so they don't have

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Speaker 4: any urgency to move back to neutral. However, it won't

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Speaker 4: be until the second half of next year that any

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Speaker 4: potential policy change could come from the FMC based on

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Speaker 4: what Trump does early in his presidency. And it is

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Speaker 4: worth noting that there's tariffs are one off increases and

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Speaker 4: they're not the type of demand inflation that the FED

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Speaker 4: worries about.

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Speaker 3: Lee In the heartier note, it's the densest node on

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Speaker 3: fixed in come on Wall Street to claim by all

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Speaker 3: buried in it is looming month, Then bond demand is

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Speaker 3: it foreign appetite, is it domestic? Is it Fidelity or

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Speaker 3: Blackrock need to touch up their portfolios? What do you

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Speaker 3: mean by looming month and demand? Price up, yield down?

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Speaker 4: Well, it was a refunding month, and so that means

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Speaker 4: that we'll have new bonds being added to the benchmark index,

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Speaker 4: which implies that even someone who wants to be neutral

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Speaker 4: on duration is going to need to buy in into

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Speaker 4: the month. That's true for real money domestic players, and

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Speaker 4: that's true for any overseas buyers that are based off

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Speaker 4: of a benchmark. As a theme, though we do tend

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Speaker 4: to think of looming month and demand being more of

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Speaker 4: a domestic affair as opposed to being a strong overseas story.

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Speaker 5: So stepping back here, what was your take when you

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Speaker 5: see the nomination of a Scott Bessant for treasury secretaries

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Speaker 5: is as simple as well, there's an adult in the

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Speaker 5: room and maybe take more measured you know, look towards

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Speaker 5: Tariff's kind of what do you think the market's discounting here?

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Speaker 4: I think that that was the knee jerk response, and

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Speaker 4: the perception is that he will be a more balanced, methodical,

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Speaker 4: thoughtful Treasury secretary then might have otherwise been at risk.

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Speaker 4: And there's also this observation that he's already made about

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Speaker 4: taking a gradual approach on the tearff side, and if

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Speaker 4: he's successful in being able to orchestrate that, that could

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Speaker 4: take a lot of the shock and a lot of

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Speaker 4: the tension out of the process as we recalibrate on

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Speaker 4: the global trade stage.

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Speaker 3: Link your tone of price up yield down with Belski's

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Speaker 3: tone of a solid equity market. Is it just ian

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Speaker 3: our underestimation of continue to ample real GDP and surprisingly

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Speaker 3: good animal spirits is signaled by nominal GDP.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that the case for outperformance of the

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Speaker 4: equity market can be made, and I'm on board with

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Speaker 4: Belski's expectations. If we're going to be moving to a

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Speaker 4: familiar doesn't have to be particularly lower rate environment. But

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Speaker 4: if we don't have a spike in ten and thirty

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Speaker 4: year rates, then equities can can continue to grind higher

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Speaker 4: from here. My biggest worry for risk assets is that

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Speaker 4: we do see a spike in term premium, a spike

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Speaker 4: in break evens and more reflationary anks. That gets us

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Speaker 4: to an October twenty twenty three moment where we saw

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Speaker 4: that correction lower in stock.

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Speaker 3: See how Ian did that? I mean Brian, you know,

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Speaker 3: for next year he's only going to be called Belski.

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Speaker 3: It's like share exactly. It's just like Belski. Yep. It's

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Speaker 3: just one one word iling and thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: What a team it is at being capital markets and

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Speaker 3: there are many different parts the Bank of Montreal cours

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Speaker 3: Pemo capital market.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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Speaker 2: Applecarplay and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 2: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: I love doing seminars with Francis Donald of the Royal

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Speaker 3: Bank of Canada. She writes a very terse note, always

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Speaker 3: wrapped around the core function Y equal C plus I

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Speaker 3: plus G plus export import dynamic. She darkens the door

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Speaker 3: today visiting us from Montreal as well. Nominal GDP to me,

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Speaker 3: has been the great miss call this year. Can you,

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Speaker 3: with your K shape theme, with American exceptionalism, with the

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Speaker 3: bascent Treasury Secretary celebration, can you model nominal GDP about

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Speaker 3: five percent twelve months forward?

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Speaker 6: Oh well, that'll depend on the size, scope, timing and

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Speaker 6: sequencing of a whole lot of policies that are going

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Speaker 6: to come down delight or the ability be delayed. And

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Speaker 6: you know, in my almost two decades of doing this,

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Speaker 6: I know that I can't rely on Washington probabilities to

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Speaker 6: dictate my economic forecast. What we do know is the

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Speaker 6: direction of a lot of policies that are going to

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Speaker 6: come in and maybe skew our forecasts. And problematically, tom

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Speaker 6: some of them are growth positive deregulation, corporate tax cuts,

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Speaker 6: and some of them are growth negative things like tariffs

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Speaker 6: or even and we don't talk about it enough immigration

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Speaker 6: policies and the risks to lower labor supply. So at

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Speaker 6: the end of twenty twenty five, depending on the sequencing,

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Speaker 6: we could very much have an economy that's doing quite well,

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Speaker 6: the where animal spirits have helped lift confidence in small

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Speaker 6: business confidence which I'm acutely focusing on, and the FED

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Speaker 6: we'll have to be thinking about hikes not cuts. The

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Speaker 6: flip side of that is, if the sequencing is different,

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Speaker 6: we could see us trip this soft landing and have

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Speaker 6: a FED that continues to focus on cuts. And that's

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Speaker 6: not me not having conviction in a forecast refusing to

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Speaker 6: make a call. It's me acknowledging that the tails around

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Speaker 6: our calls are much fatter, and every corporate, every household,

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Speaker 6: every market participant has to take a look at a

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Speaker 6: broader set of scenarios now than they were a couple

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Speaker 6: of months ago.

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Speaker 5: What's some hindsight here to the labor data. What has

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Speaker 5: the migrant influx of people into this country over the

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Speaker 5: last several years. What does it meant for the labor

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Speaker 5: market and our economy, because now it's front and center

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Speaker 5: yet again, but maybe on the other side.

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Speaker 6: This is such an important question, and thank you for

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Speaker 6: asking it. Because I'm frankly more focused on immigration policy

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Speaker 6: than i am on tariffs. Okay, tariffs are a price

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Speaker 6: level shock. We got a playbook for tariffs. We generally

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Speaker 6: know what happened. Every economist with their salt knows a

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Speaker 6: ton about washing machines from twenty eighteen. But that's not

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Speaker 6: what's going to keep an economistep at night. That's a

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Speaker 6: one time in fla shock. What worries us is labor

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Speaker 6: supply shortages and persistent wage growth. That's the type of

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Speaker 6: more nefarious inflation that creeps in and requires much higher

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Speaker 6: interest rates. And we are heading into a period where

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Speaker 6: we expect to see well, no, we've already seen record retirements,

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Speaker 6: record retire We have three retirees for every one new

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Speaker 6: entrant looking for work in the United States. It is

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Speaker 6: really sweat.

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Speaker 3: Why it is that? What's the why on? It's stunning statistics.

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Speaker 6: It's just demographics, Tom, People get older and they retire.

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Speaker 3: They do.

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Speaker 6: Really, that's what happens. It's hard for us to accept,

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Speaker 6: but no, it's demographics. And we you know, my whole life.

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Speaker 6: Demographics is something that we thought about as being relevant

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Speaker 6: over a five, ten, twenty year horizon. It is relevant

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Speaker 6: in twenty twenty five. It's also why that unemployment rate

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Speaker 6: is staying very low. It's mechanically pushing down and it

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Speaker 6: puts pressure on the Fed.

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Speaker 3: Paul Dow up four hundred and fifty points, Nasdick up,

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Speaker 3: rather SPX up seven tents of a percent. Just Apple

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Speaker 3: is one model up two and a half dollars. We

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Speaker 3: call that two and five eights.

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Speaker 5: Okay, and talk to us about this K shaped economy.

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Speaker 5: What does it mean to you and how problematic is

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Speaker 5: it for the broader economy out there?

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Speaker 6: Well, it depends who you are. But one of the

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Speaker 6: big challenges over the past year is if you were

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Speaker 6: running any type of model based off of a data

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Speaker 6: point like the ism or consumer confidence, which waits every

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Speaker 6: participant in that survey equally, you and I get the

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Speaker 6: same weight, it looked recessionary. And that's because small businesses

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Speaker 6: and low income households have been in a very real recession.

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Speaker 6: It's not just sentiment. It's not just that they have

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Speaker 6: bad expectations. But any data point that actually captured the

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Speaker 6: economy as a whole, that was in real dollars looked

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Speaker 6: just fine. And the trap was focusing on those standard

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Speaker 6: indicators that weighted everybody equally, because high income households and

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Speaker 6: large corporations, they are the drivers of what happens next.

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Speaker 6: If you're the FED, this is a problem though, because

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Speaker 6: you really would need two monetary policies to help those

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Speaker 6: who are struggling and require much lower rates. And then

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Speaker 6: the resilient CEOs, the large households. They actually are large companies,

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Speaker 6: they actually could probably merit rates around four percent or above.

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Speaker 6: So if that's going to have to make a choice,

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Speaker 6: does it target the aggregate of the economy and let

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Speaker 6: one element lag behind more significantly than it has in

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Speaker 6: the past, or does it say we actually need to

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Speaker 6: be a little bit quote unquote fairer in the way

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Speaker 6: that we look at this. I think the challenge is

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Speaker 6: that inflation runs off of the aggregate, not the individual.

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Speaker 6: This is going to continue to muck up a lot

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Speaker 6: of our statistics and a lot of our models, But

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Speaker 6: at least now there's more of a general realization of

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Speaker 6: why standard economic models hasn't worked for us in the

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Speaker 6: past year or two.

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Speaker 5: Scott Bessant, nominated to be Treasury Secretary, that the markets

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Speaker 5: seem to like it this morning. As an economist, do

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Speaker 5: you read anything into it. Are you kind of thinking

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Speaker 5: more just bigger picture?

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Speaker 6: All I want is less uncertainty. We are still in

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Speaker 6: a massive uncertainty shock. Even though we know the outcome

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Speaker 6: of the election, we still don't have a good sense

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Speaker 6: of what the next one to two years is going

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Speaker 6: to look like. So this is one of these weeks

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Speaker 6: We're getting a huge amount of economic data and I

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Speaker 6: almost don't care because I'm looking for clarity. Oh whoa, whoah, whah, whoah.

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Speaker 3: Don't say that we need people to tune in at

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Speaker 3: least through Wednesday.

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Speaker 6: Go you don't care, well, listen, I care about PC.

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Speaker 6: I care about where are we stating right now, because

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Speaker 6: we do want to know is inflation already too hot?

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Speaker 6: That'll be really key for the Federal Reserve. But broadly,

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Speaker 6: the focus now turns towards what is the path for

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Speaker 6: the next one to two years. I did not anticipate

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Speaker 6: a few months ago that we would be talking on

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Speaker 6: our teams about twenty twenty five rate hikes. That is

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Speaker 6: not our base case, but we are now having to discuss.

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Speaker 6: We've got, you know, a vision for what rate cuts

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Speaker 6: could look like and a vision for rate hikes at

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Speaker 6: the same time. Two sided risk to a lot of

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Speaker 6: economic forecasts right now. So any clarity I get is

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Speaker 6: welcome clarity, and I think clarity for markets as well.

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Speaker 3: Help me here with the Canadian elections. I don't want

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Speaker 3: to get you in trouble with the General Counsel of OURBC,

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Speaker 3: but is there a Trump valent and the Conservative to

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Speaker 3: go after the Trudeau politics of Canada.

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Speaker 6: Well, there is an anticipation that there will be a

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Speaker 6: new election in Canada at some point, so it hasn't

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Speaker 6: been called yet, it has not been called.

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Speaker 3: There's crazy British yep.

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Speaker 6: Exactly, but at any point, again, we're looking for more

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Speaker 6: certainty for what will happen next. And just a reminder,

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Speaker 6: Canada is not in the same shape as the United States.

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Speaker 6: Productivity is really severe, they've cut immigration. We're actually going

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Speaker 6: to see population declines in Canada in the next few years.

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Speaker 6: That is a very weak economy on the prespit of

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Speaker 6: recession and a big Canada that's probably heading down to

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Speaker 6: two percent. So those factors are going to be the

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Speaker 6: dominant stories in Canada. Election are no election, just keep winning. Well,

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Speaker 6: there's some good things going on.

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Speaker 3: You're right, that's right. Is tell me about like Vancouver

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Speaker 3: in British Columbia. I mean you fly out there, what

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Speaker 3: every second week or so?

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Speaker 6: Well, here's something. Taylor Swift is ending her concert tour,

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Speaker 6: the Heiress Tour, in Vancouver, also known as the Emerald City,

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Speaker 6: so they'll get a little bit of a boosting. Me too.

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Speaker 6: I got to experience it in Toronto. But we're proudly

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Speaker 6: Canadian getting the last Taylor Swift airs tour.

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Speaker 3: And now, folks with Francis Donald and Lisa Matteo, we

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Speaker 3: brief you on Wednesdays, mowana too, Are you going to

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Speaker 3: are you taking the offspring? To?

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Speaker 6: No question? Why not have children except to bring them

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Speaker 6: to the movies you really want to see but can't

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Speaker 6: go alone to Ye?

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Speaker 3: Okay, you think so, Lisa.

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Speaker 1: She makes up a great point because you don't want

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Speaker 1: to go by yourself and just say like, hey, I'm

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Speaker 1: watching an animated movie. Your kids are the excuse.

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Speaker 6: Really, I didn't know that.

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Speaker 3: You know how far back I go? Like Cinderella. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's like ancient street They did it by hand. Now

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Speaker 3: it's all raze, kung fu pan.

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Speaker 5: You're not taking a soldier of the guy, are you?

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Speaker 7: You're not gonna.

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Speaker 3: Can't get them, Francis Donald, thank you so much with

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Speaker 3: RBC Capital Markets.

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Speaker 2: These Here's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now William Lee Chi for Kindamist Milkin Institute. Bill.

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Speaker 3: This could be a three hour conversation. Let's cut it short.

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Speaker 3: What do Trump tariffs mean for Beijing?

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Speaker 8: Oh, it's going to mean a change of life from

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Speaker 8: where it was for the last four years. One of

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Speaker 8: the things we have to remember, Tom, is that the

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Speaker 8: make America Great objective has really one ultimate objective of

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Speaker 8: maximized domestic employment and income.

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Speaker 7: Right.

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Speaker 8: That is the feature that we have to keep in mind,

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Speaker 8: and Beijing really realizes that. Up till now, President Biden

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Speaker 8: has been emphasizing getting everybody together in trade packs, multi

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Speaker 8: level trade packs.

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Speaker 7: Some difficulties negotiating them.

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Speaker 8: But Donald Trump is a deal maker and he goes

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Speaker 8: for not only bilateral deals with countries, he goes for

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Speaker 8: bilottle deals with companies. So I think Beijing is preparing

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Speaker 8: himself for a whole bunch of company specific deals, sector

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Speaker 8: specific deals, and I think that gives him flexibility. You

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Speaker 8: can read tailor you know that same industry. You can

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Speaker 8: negotiate with the Korea and you negotiate with Taiwan on

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Speaker 8: semiconductors and have two different deals that try to benefit right. So,

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Speaker 8: I just came back from a meeting in South Korea

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Speaker 8: not so long ago, and they were really excited about

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Speaker 8: having more and more US trying to trade tensions because they.

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Speaker 7: Trade with both sides. Okay, let them do that.

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Speaker 3: You're on the IMF desk as you were for years.

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Speaker 3: What about magnitude Lightheiser and Trump want magnitude large tariffs?

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Speaker 3: The Treasury Secretary designate does not. Does it make a

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Speaker 3: difference if if Billy gets a marginal or a massive

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Speaker 3: tariff regime?

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Speaker 8: Well, tom As you know, as a deal maker, the

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Speaker 8: one thing you never negotiate is your final position, and

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Speaker 8: right now the opening round is massive prohibitive tariffs. In fact,

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Speaker 8: we had heard him say if it takes one hundred percent, great,

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Speaker 8: If it takes two hundred percent, I'm going to put

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Speaker 8: them in.

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Speaker 7: But that the.

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Speaker 8: Negotiating open employ and what the objectives had said before

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Speaker 8: is the restructured trade routes, restructured trade packs, and restructure

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Speaker 8: the US manufacturing base in a way that replicates more

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Speaker 8: supply chains domestically and French shoring.

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Speaker 7: And these tariffs are one way of negotiating that.

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Speaker 8: Remember, Tom, restructuring America is both the democratic and Republican

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Speaker 8: objective right to maximize domestic income and employment. And I

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Speaker 8: think President Trump is going to be using trade policy

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Speaker 8: as a tool. As you know, Tom, I come from

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Speaker 8: the tradition of Bob Mundell and Carlos from Vegas, and

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Speaker 8: you know Mo Calvo where in a distorted world and

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Speaker 8: Kelvin Lancaster's world the second best where you don't have

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Speaker 8: free trade, putting on tariffs or negotiating industrial policy can

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Speaker 8: make countries better off. Because we come in a distorted

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Speaker 8: world where there is no free trade, there is no

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Speaker 8: perfect competition.

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Speaker 5: So where is the concept of free trade? What was

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Speaker 5: it ever a reality? And is it now gone for

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Speaker 5: the foreseeable future?

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Speaker 8: If you go back to days at Alexander Hamilton, right,

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Speaker 8: he already put the stake in the heart of free

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Speaker 8: trade when he said we've got to build up US industries.

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Speaker 8: We cannot depend on the UK for manufactured goods. That alone,

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Speaker 8: I think goes to show that we never had that

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Speaker 8: world of free trade. It was only taught by people

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Speaker 8: like me when in international economics and undergrads to give

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Speaker 8: you a baseline model for where it is that we

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Speaker 8: can dry for. But I think the minute you hit

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Speaker 8: graduate school, you learn about the world at the second

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Speaker 8: best where in a world's distortions, adding on at the

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Speaker 8: story can actually make the world better off than before.

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Speaker 8: And I think Donald Trump has been saying that all along,

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Speaker 8: and President Biden has been on too, the Chips.

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Speaker 7: Act and the.

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Speaker 8: Subseas that we've been giving to build plants in Arizona

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Speaker 8: for TSMC to come here was the lesson that we

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Speaker 8: learned from COVID that we cannot depend on one source

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Speaker 8: of supply chains. My former boss, Jane Alexander Jane Fraser

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Speaker 8: said at a military meeting, you know, the problem with

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Speaker 8: ESG is that we're missing some essays. We need some

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Speaker 8: stability and safety and soundness to our supply chain. And

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Speaker 8: I think that's something the hard the message of the

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Speaker 8: heart of the message that President Trump is also trying

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Speaker 8: to emphasize.

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Speaker 5: Is there, how valid is the argument that tariffs are

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Speaker 5: inflationary on the US consumer?

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Speaker 8: Well, Paul, I guess I hate to be the e

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Speaker 8: contectory again. But a tariff, even with retaliations, the step

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Speaker 8: wise increase in price levels right in order to get

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Speaker 8: inflation would need continuous increases in the price level. And

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Speaker 8: so we can have higher prices but not higher inflation

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Speaker 8: due to tariffs unless we have repeated rounds of retaliation.

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Speaker 3: Doctor Lee. And I'm gonna get a little nerdy here, folks.

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Speaker 3: The people that invented this again out of Columbia was Borrow,

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Speaker 3: Professor Barrow and a guy named Xavier sally E. Martin,

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Speaker 3: who were the bright you know, Lis or Dan Ives

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Speaker 3: got the sport code. Thing though, is the sport codes

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Speaker 3: of sally E Martin and their work. Is that in

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Speaker 3: America the people hammer by trade converge towards where the

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Speaker 3: better part of America is. Now we have a trump

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Speaker 3: of grievance, a trump of so many people in America

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Speaker 3: have missed the boat on free trade. Is that academics

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Speaker 3: Bill Lee still in place or is it a new

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Speaker 3: regime after Barrows silt E Martin.

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Speaker 8: I think we combine both of those elements, because one

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Speaker 8: thing that we also have to remember is there's technological

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Speaker 8: change and shaping technological change is one way of converging

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Speaker 8: trade theory and growth theory. Technology gives us the opportunity

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Speaker 8: to produce. As Mike Milkon once told me, you know,

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Speaker 8: bill is cheaper to produce sneakers in Atlanta than it

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Speaker 8: is in China if you have the right technology in place.

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Speaker 8: And so I think one of the things that we're

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Speaker 8: going to see is the use of technology to drive

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Speaker 8: a lot of the industrial policy that both President Biden

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Speaker 8: and President Trump want to do, which is to say,

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Speaker 8: reshaped supply routes don't depend on single sources where they're

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Speaker 8: their efficiency comes at a cost, and at a cost

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Speaker 8: not just the US, but to Europe as well. And

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Speaker 8: I think Europe and the United States are trying to

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Speaker 8: replicate the supply chains. If I were China, I'd be

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Speaker 8: more afraid of the European tariffs that they're gonna be

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Speaker 8: putting in to protect their auto industries and their industrial base,

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Speaker 8: their pharmaceuticals than the United States tariffs, because I think

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Speaker 8: President Trump is much more willing to negotiate. You bring

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Speaker 8: jobs in the United States. You invest the United States

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Speaker 8: and you can circumvent our tariffs. If you don't do

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Speaker 8: that and try to insist on competing with our strategic industries,

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Speaker 8: you'terated with not just fifty but one hundred percent tariffs.

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Speaker 3: We went too long, Billy, don't be a stranger. We'll

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Speaker 3: do this again soon with the milk in the institute.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

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Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 3: They look at the front pages of Lisa Matteo our Lisa,

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Speaker 3: what do you have?

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Speaker 1: Okay? It was a little bit of slow day today.

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Speaker 1: I was struggling, but I did find some good ones.

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Speaker 1: This is in the Wall Street Journal. It's a growing

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Speaker 1: trend among couples. They're buying the house now and they're

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Speaker 1: getting married later. So that is the recent trend. Twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three, five hundred and fifty five thousand unmarried couples

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Speaker 1: said they bought their home in the previous year, and

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Speaker 1: that's up forty six percent from ten years earlier, so

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Speaker 1: more people doing it.

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Speaker 5: But yes, there's the risk.

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Speaker 1: What if you break up? You know, what if something

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Speaker 1: happens to the other partner. So family law attorneys, they

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Speaker 1: are busy, they're getting all these questions about it. You know,

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Speaker 1: prenup cohabitation agreements can cost like three grand. So they're saying,

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Speaker 1: people surely have to.

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Speaker 3: Consider this is the question you sell the house before

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Speaker 3: you get divorced.

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Speaker 1: See, those are questions you.

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Speaker 5: Have to ask, you know, Like I think the big

440
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 5: issues I don't know how young people afford Yeah, I

441
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 5: mean home affordabilities out of control. The prices are high,

442
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 5: interest rates, mortgan rates are high. You know, I never

443
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 5: saw I haven't seen a correction in the housing market.

444
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 5: I'm not sure where.

445
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: And that's why they're going for the home instead of

446
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: paying for the wedding. Like what goes first the wedding

447
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: or the homes?

448
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 3: And then there's a destination. He does a great cartoon.

449
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: This, Oh oh yes.

450
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 3: About the destination wedding. Oh, I've had a couple recently,

451
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 3: and you gotta be kidding me.

452
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: It's tough because you as the guests, have to fork

453
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: about this.

454
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 3: Money for people who got kids is sort of. You know,

455
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 3: one guy wanted to have it intuition it's a city

456
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 3: in Southeast Asia or so next.

457
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 1: Oh, yes, we talked about it. Wicked, Gladiator too. Write

458
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: the box office? How much it did? One hundred and

459
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 1: seventy million between both of them. Okay, not close to

460
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 1: the two forty five that you know, the Barbenheimer brought in,

461
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,479
Speaker 1: but it's still brought in a significant amount. But what

462
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: the New York Times was interesting is that they talked

463
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: about the money behind it, like the big marketing cost,

464
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 1: how much Wicked's universal one of the largest marketing campaigns

465
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: in Hollywood history. I mean they started back in February

466
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: at the Super Bowl, and you're going to see more

467
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: Wicked at the Thanksgiving Day Brandon Macy's on others, you know,

468
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 1: so brand partnerships. I mean you saw the Wicked dolls,

469
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: the drinks at Starbucks, the Wicked lego sets, Wicked Cardigan's

470
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: at Target. I mean, it's unbelievable. Even Gladiator too, they

471
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: put a lot of partners.

472
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: Miss Russell Crowe cut to the chick.

473
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: Oh I did, I did? The new guy was good though.

474
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 1: The new guy Mescal I think is his last name,

475
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 1: but he was really good. Yes, he was really good,

476
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: and Denzel was phenomenal.

477
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 5: Wicked Part two is scheduled for release next year. So excited.

478
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 3: This is like I can't remember Game of Zones or whatever.

479
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: They make two of the movies at the same time.

480
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 5: Is that what they did here?

481
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 3: I think that's what they do, so they.

482
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 5: Can probably save the Sunny Man. Yeah, yeah, but that's

483
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 5: a bunch.

484
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 3: It's huge.

485
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 5: Gladiator too, cost at least three hundred and fifty million

486
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 5: dollar to make and market, so that's that's a big note.

487
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: How do we count for one hundred million dollars of

488
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: Areaana grande, you know exactly? Prancing around?

489
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 5: Don't know?

490
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 3: I mean, this is an expense deduction.

491
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,239
Speaker 5: I don't know. One of the questions I have is

492
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 5: how are these things going to play in China, if

493
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 5: at all? Because that had become a market right in

494
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 5: line with the size of the US market, and Hollywood

495
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 5: made a lot of money over the last twenty years

496
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 5: in China. I'm not sure if that's still the case

497
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 5: next it's a big thing.

498
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: It's okay, so you mentioned China, Yeah, well, so we'll

499
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: switch there. China no longer made source of US imports,

500
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: but tariffs really haven't slowed America's demand for foreign goods.

501
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: I mean this was really in the Wall Street Journal too.

502
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: Mexico took the top spot last year. And it's a

503
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: shift started in twenty eighteen, Like we saw it starting

504
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: to change there with then president President Trump and now

505
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: with his promise to impose another round of tariffs. What

506
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: type of goods are we talking about? Smartphones one of

507
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: the big things South Korea, India, of Vietnam forty two

508
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: percent increase from six years earlier. Then the value of

509
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: laptops tablets imported from Vietnam Taiwan, that's also on the

510
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: rise too.

511
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 3: John Micklethwaite with his interview with the President elect Trump

512
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 3: in Chicago before the election, and Trump talked about the

513
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: magnitude of tarriffs to force jobs to America. But Paul,

514
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 3: that's not what we're hearing from Secretary of Biscent. According

515
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 3: to Henrietta Trace, he wants tenC ween see terriff increases.

516
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, the debate and the numbers

517
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 5: don't lie. Last year, products coming from China made up

518
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 5: fourteen percent of all important goods. That's the lowest share

519
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 5: in nearly those A few decades. I mean, but many

520
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 5: of the goods arriving from factories in Mexico and Vietnam,

521
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 5: they still include components that originate in China.

522
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: Exactly. How is like twenty five percent of what they

523
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: output comes to America? Now, yep, it's it's complex, would

524
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 3: be my answer, folks, do you have anything else?

525
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 4: I do?

526
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 5: I do your gi answer?

527
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 3: Bark play of the eagles?

528
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 6: So please?

529
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: That was very sad okay Chinese fash fashion retailer in

530
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: the spotlight. So parents, are you know if you're getting

531
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: stuff for your kids? A lot of sometimes they turn

532
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 1: to these cheap retailers like Tamu, like I'll express like shean.

533
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: But the government of South Korea putting out this warning, Hey,

534
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: these clothes can have toxic substances. So this is what

535
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: they're putting out the warning work They tested twenty six

536
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: pieces of children's winter wear. Yeah, and seven of them

537
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: contain these toxic substances. But they're saying one of them,

538
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: I mean, there was this jacket from Tamu six d

539
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 1: and twenty two times I legal limit of toxics?

540
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: Can I do this with fend?

541
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 5: Can you tell that it's not gonna work?

542
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: Not gonna work.

543
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: Well, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much for the newspaper Sick.

544
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

545
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

546
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

547
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

548
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

549
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal