1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's go to 6 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: Gerard Cassidy, with decades of expert he always comes in 7 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: swinging into the lobster restaurants of Portland, Maine. He's with 8 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: RBC Capital Markets. Gerard Cassidy, I want to go to 9 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: cost and geographic reduction as expense control. When you give 10 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: up on retail in Vietnam and in Bay Wren, is 11 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: that nothing more than a closeted cost reduction, Tom, I 12 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: think it is. And when you take a look at 13 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: the markets that they're exiting, the numbers that they've provided 14 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: really do not have a material impact at the bottom line. Now, 15 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: you might recall some years back they exited a handful 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: of these consumer markets and they obviously didn't go all 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: the way. And Jane Fraser with our first strategic move 18 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: is trying to make the company more profitable by exiting 19 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,199 Speaker 1: these markets. Where they really don't earn very much money. 20 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: What's left. What's more Today, it's gonna be interesting because 21 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: this has been the one area that focus for many 22 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: investors that they needed to really trimm down their global 23 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: footprint on the consumer side. They just didn't have the 24 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: scale in certain markets. So then the next question is, 25 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: you know, how do you build up scale in the 26 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: United States? When you take a look at two of 27 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: their biggest piers, JP Morgan Chase in Bank America, they 28 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: had consumer banking franchises in the United States have return 29 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: on equities return unchangeable common equities of over thirty City 30 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: does not match that number, so City, we'll have to 31 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: take a look at how do we get bigger in 32 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: the US? If we asked this question of sale and 33 00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: she answered it delicately, and you can answer it a 34 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: little bit more recifuly on matching because here at OLYMPUG 35 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: we have to be slightly diplomatic, of course, But do 36 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: you see this as a big change from collbat to 37 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: fright up? Absolutely? And you know she indicated on the 38 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: last call, when she participated in the fourth quarter earnings call, 39 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: that there were changes coming and were expect to hear 40 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: more guidelines on new targeted return numbers, what they're going 41 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: to expect to be able to achieve with these strategic changes. 42 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: You know, City has a lot of work to do, 43 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: a lot of heavy lifting, but now with the new 44 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: leadership under Jane Fraser, I think they're gonna be a 45 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: bit to accomplished new and better numbers for shareholders. Gerard, 46 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: so far, who's winning in the capital market space? I mean, 47 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: all of them have been beating across the board, and 48 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: people have been talking about the frothy markets, But who's winning? 49 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: It looks like so far when you compare all the numbers, 50 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: Goldman Sacks came out on top in almost all the 51 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 1: different categories, whether it was E c M, D c M, 52 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: or in trading in markets for FICK or equity. They 53 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: seem to have by far the best numbers out of 54 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: all of them. But to your point, they're all very 55 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: strong numbers, and there's a question of how long this 56 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: can last. And I was looking at a headline about 57 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: City groups incredible equity trading numbers following on the spack 58 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: of spaka blos or whatever you want to call it. 59 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 1: How long can these trends last to continue supporting their earnings. 60 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: It's going to be more challenging as we get into 61 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 1: this year unless we get continued volatility and strengths and 62 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: the markets and they're that's hard to predict. But we 63 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 1: should understand that the spack E c M business that 64 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: has started to obviously slow down because the number of 65 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: the investors and spacts. They've already allocated the money for 66 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: that and there's not as much money to go into spacts. 67 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: So now we need to see the de spacking. That's 68 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: when they actually do the mergers. So that's gonna be 69 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: a lift to advisory businesses as we get into the 70 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: second half of this year. George Cassidy, we talked to 71 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: Thomas Show. Do you know well from KBW earlier were 72 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: reminisced on Bank of New England long ago and far 73 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: away the ultimate roll ups that you were directly involved in. 74 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: Do you presume another season of roll ups because of 75 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: the technological superiority of these winners, Tom, I think you're 76 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: you're right. We are going to see more consolidation. It's 77 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: already started to pick up. As you might recall, Tom, 78 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: when you and I were young men, we had eighteen 79 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: thousand banks in the early nineteen eighties. Today we're down aft. 80 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: We expect continued roll ups or consolidation to to continue 81 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: over the next two to three years, and it will 82 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: be small community banks uh like probably in acquiring USB 83 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: one last year out of New Jersey, but also the 84 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: big deals like we saw with M and T acquiring 85 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: People's Bank of Connecticut. So we're going to see big 86 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: regional deals, we believe over the next two to three years, 87 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 1: and the Canadians will likely get stronger in the US. 88 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: Stron Dominion has indicated they want to get bigger in 89 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: the US and South. Gracious with your time on morning 90 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: slid this morning, can I just squeeze another one in 91 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: just rent for the quarta? We had Bank for America 92 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: early this morning. It's we have the likes of Goldman 93 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: JP Morgan too in the mix in the last twenty 94 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: four hours. Who won the quarta? I would say, so far, 95 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 1: you gotta put Goldman Sacks at the front of the list. 96 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: They have won the quarter. But when you look at 97 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 1: the universal banks, we've had three of the JP Morgan 98 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: city in Bank America, and I would say JP Morgan 99 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: probably came out they had, but they all had the 100 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: same trends. John which is these loan loss reserve releases 101 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: are very meaningful. They're gonna continue throughout the year and 102 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: that's gonna be the bridge until we get loan growth 103 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: and higher revenue growth in the second half of the year. Jed, 104 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: I've gotta half from me, say, I know you gotta 105 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: run J Cassidy that vom PC right now. My conversation 106 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: of the day, I'm banking with Thomas Mchode. Thomas showed 107 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: chief executive officer of Keith Briott in Woods, a stiffer company, 108 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: and we're thrilled that Mr Michode could join us this 109 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: morning because he knows you walk into a banker's office 110 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: and you start to talk about consolidation. Tom, you guys 111 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: invent of it. Back into it are all day and 112 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: all that Tucker Anthony r all day and the merger 113 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: into KBW. You guys literally invented the modern consolidation with 114 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,119 Speaker 1: the Bank of New England. Are we going to see 115 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: a reduct in this bank boom of consolidation? Well, Tom, 116 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: that's a great memory. You do remember a long way back, 117 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,239 Speaker 1: we did work on those deals for Bank of New England. 118 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: But um so the industry has been consolidating for UH 119 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: for many decades, and the question is what's the pace. 120 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: But consolidation is an important theme here and we think 121 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: it is going to continue, and we think it's going 122 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: to continue for a couple of primary reasons. UH. Number 123 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: one is it seems as if, for the first time, 124 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: at least in my thirty five year career, the bigger 125 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: banks are more profitable. You look at our earnings models 126 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: for next year, we see them earning about two bass 127 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: points more return on tangible common equity, and it feels 128 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: like it's going to be consistent. It's not just a 129 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: flash of the band. Those scale seems to be working. 130 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: That's number one. Number two is we're in a really 131 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 1: slow revenue growth environment and one way to grower costs out. 132 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: And then the third reason is we thought fintech was 133 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: important pre COVID. What we've learned during COVID, it's even 134 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: more important than we thought. All the trends that we 135 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: were seeing were accelerated by the pandemic, and that's going 136 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: to try Even for investment, you're going to see more consolidations. 137 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: So I knew you. I knew you were going there. 138 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: I want to go, folks into some inside baseball here 139 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: and we do this on Global Wall Street. What is 140 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: the profitability Tomas showed of a digital dollar of revenue 141 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: versus a traditional consumer banking or business loan banking dollar revenue. 142 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: Is it like technology where it's not to the bottom line, 143 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: where the competition the old technology is fift to the 144 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: bottom line. Well, the way I would answer that question 145 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: is I look at the efficiency ratios of the online 146 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: banks versus the traditional what are they and they may 147 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: end up being lower uh than the more traditional bank 148 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: just you know, just in a big picture of you, 149 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: once they hit a critical mask, you will see that 150 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: they drive much lower efficiency ratios. And that's going to 151 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: be the key, and that's why you're gonna see more 152 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: and more branch rationalization around the country to try to 153 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: get those costs out it's own. Kane. I think that's 154 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: what's so interesting about the last twelve months, the holdouts 155 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: to people that didn't do want to do the online banking, 156 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: the digital banking. They were forced to do it something 157 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: they had no other choice. Thomas show, you've talked about 158 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: the rationalization. Just how big is that going to be 159 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 1: and how many jobs will be lost? Well? There will well, 160 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: there will be consolidation and lots of jobs out in 161 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: those facilities. At the same time, you're seeing an incredible 162 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: amount of hiring happening in the I T groups of 163 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: these companies. Uh, and so I do think that head 164 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: count will come down over time in the banking industry, 165 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: but it will be somewhat of a mixed shift at 166 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: the same time, Tom Kane, that has been the story, 167 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: hasn't it the rationalization that loss that your help, Yes, 168 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: you're right, and we all see that at the four 169 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: branches on the five corners of any I should say, 170 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: the five branches on the four corners of the street. 171 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: That's when young mchowd came out of Middlebury and we 172 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 1: were over banked. Tomas showed to John's point, is it 173 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: one for one? What's the ratio? Because because we're just 174 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: talking about one half of the equation, John, which is 175 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 1: what's happening at the core the traditional banks. At the 176 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: same time, you look at somebody like Galaxy Digital, what's 177 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: happening at that company? I I've heard a quote from 178 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: the CEO that in the last few months they've hired 179 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: over seventy people. These companies that are standing up as competitors, 180 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: we didn't even know about three or four years ago. 181 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: They're hiring, hiring like crazy, so and they're still within 182 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: the financial services industry. So it's all about a shift 183 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: that's occurring, which I think in some ways it's healthy, 184 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: that's evolving as the economies evolved. Tom Tomma show. One 185 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: thing you talked about was the big question is how 186 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: much can they actually increase profits going forward? That really 187 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 1: will stem from loan growth. We've heard from a lot 188 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: of the big banks already that has been a challenging area. 189 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: How concerned are you about the lack of loan originations, 190 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: the lack of demand as a result of cash flush 191 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: consumers and corporations. You hit the tension nail right on 192 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: the head because that is the question. So just to 193 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: set up what the tension is, I think with investors 194 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 1: in the market right now, is credit quality far better 195 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 1: than anyone expected, and results continue to exceed expectations. Negative 196 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: low loss provisions. I saw some banks recently had practically 197 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: zero net charge offs. Remarkable. Capital is building eighty years strong, 198 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: balance sheets getting stronger. There's eight hundred billion dollars of 199 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: excess liquidity we think in the banking system right now, 200 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: that's the fuel for we think a lot of growth. 201 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: The problem is you're not seeing it right now because 202 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: the demand for for credit from the private sector just 203 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: isn't there. And so if the economy is as strong 204 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: as many people think, and we think what the industry 205 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: is saying is some of this excess liquidity will will 206 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: will be soaked up, and we'd like to think that 207 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: by the end of the year you'll start to see 208 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: revenues begin to grow as core loans begin to grow. 209 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 1: If it doesn't happen a year and I think it's 210 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: a question of when, not if, And that's what investors 211 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 1: are looking for right now because you're not seeing it 212 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: right now in the industry. But the industry is in 213 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: great shape to grow when that demand comes back. That's 214 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: the next leg at this rally. But the rally we've 215 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: had since last September is the credit improvement rally. The 216 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: next rally is going to need to be the revenue 217 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: growth rally, which really hasn't started yet, but people believe 218 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: it will. And this is the tension right now, this 219 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: question of how hot can the economy run if that 220 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: loan demand doesn't pick up materially by year end. What 221 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: you're saying is is different from what I'm hearing from 222 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: other analysts. You're saying that if it doesn't pick up 223 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: by your end, it just as a matter of when. 224 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: It's not a question of whether the economy is truly 225 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 1: hot or not. Do you think, for example, that we 226 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: are going to see banks be able to profit from 227 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: this hot economy in a way that perhaps people are 228 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: discounting as a result of not seeing that loan demand. Yeah, 229 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: I I do. I do think that banks will participate, 230 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: but I think that you're gonna really start to see 231 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: a separation between the winners and the losers. And I 232 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: really believe that if you're an old school bank that 233 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 1: is in an area that's not a faster growth area 234 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: and haven't really invested in a lot of the new 235 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: engagement of technology platforms, there's a chance your growth curve 236 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: could be left behind. But I think that the major players, 237 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: and that's why you're seeing the consolidation. You're seeing bigger 238 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: banks stand up so they can compete with really the 239 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: non banking challenge that's happening. And I think that's the 240 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: big surprise, and that's what Jamie Diamond talked about in 241 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: his annual letter to shareholders. I do think the growth 242 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: will be there. I think it's a matter of when, 243 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: not if. And I think the banks have done a 244 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: good job of keeping their companies in good shape to 245 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: be ready for it. I tell me, it's always tried 246 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: to catch out with these sets. Get you throw us 247 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: on this sector. Always appreciate your time, you know that. 248 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: Tell me show that of KVW. Right now, we're gonna digress. 249 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: And this is exactly who I want to talk to 250 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: you about all this coin based stuff, and that is 251 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: Michael Wolf. He has a wonderful cross section of experience 252 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: and new technology. There is a tilt to entertainment, has 253 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: acclaimed books on entertainment and technology. But we're thrilled at 254 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: the gentleman from activate UH could join us this morning. 255 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: Michael Wolf. I look at coin base and as Cathy said, 256 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: it's a distributional force as well. It is set up 257 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: based on an invented scarcity. Bitcoin has a structured scarce 258 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: asset feature. How does coin based deal with the fragility 259 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: of an invented scarcity? How are they going to deal 260 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: with that strategically forward? Well, the way to think about 261 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: about point base is as an exchange and it takes 262 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: half a percentage on point on every transaction. So the 263 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: real comparison is to the is the New York Stock 264 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: Exchange nazac UH. And in fact, by the way point 265 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: basis valuation is UM is about the same as the 266 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: other two's added up. So so it's not a question 267 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: that we when we look at point is we should 268 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: not be worried about the volatility the underlying cryptocurrencies. We 269 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: really should be looking at is the number of transactions 270 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: which are likely to increase. Michael, how much we'd be 271 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: worried about regulation? What regulation? There's there's a lot to 272 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: be ironed out, and one of the issues is is 273 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: tax treatment. The I r S is said that bitcoin 274 00:14:55,760 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: is not currency but rather property. Um the the regulation 275 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: has always taken a while to catch up with technology. 276 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: In this case, it looks like it's keeping keeping paste. 277 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: The bigger issue is that this offering is really more 278 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: about the sort of coming out party, or the first 279 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: public listing of of a currency, which is going to 280 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: be an inflection point for the rest of all digital currencies. Michael, 281 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: I gotta say, I hope I have a hundred billion 282 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: dollars party coming out to some new America. I wonder though, 283 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: going forward, just generally, whether the whether the valuations are 284 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: incredibly inflated based on everybody trying to get ahead of 285 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: growth and the next big thing. How do you parse 286 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: that out at a time when you've got banks flush 287 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: with cash looking to buy fintech, when you've got individuals 288 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: looking for the next way of making efficient payments. The 289 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: what what what's fascinating a backcoin base is this is 290 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: the first way in which individuals can take to take 291 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: part of this new market for cryptocurrencies without being subject 292 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: themselves to the volatility of those currencies. So I think 293 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: we're gonna see that the coin base is going to 294 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: be held widely at this market cap, It's going to 295 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: be held by index funds, and so it's going to 296 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: allow smaller investors as well as individuals to take part 297 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: of this entire move towards cryptocurrencies. Michael Wolfe isn't like 298 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: an eBay equivalent of years ago, where there's been a structure, 299 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: there's been a launch, there's been a huge price repricing, 300 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: an advancement in price, and now basically it's dead money forward. 301 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think that this is once 302 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: again this is an exchange, it's likely to be one 303 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: of the few exchanges that dominates this business. It's actually um, 304 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: the second largest exchange world Why the largest is a 305 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: company called by ITTs and UM. And so this we're 306 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 1: going to cease so much more activity. We've only seen 307 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: so far Bitcoin as as really a vehicle of investment 308 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: and speculation. It's only beginning as a vehicle of payment. 309 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: Good to catch out, Michael, as always gonna hate from me, 310 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: said Michael jay Will of activate joining us right now. 311 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: Andy Barr, he was a congressman from Lexington, that would 312 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: be the sixth Congressional district of Kentucky. Andy, I first 313 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: got to go to the most exciting two minutes in sports. 314 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: You are going to do the Kentucky Derby on May one. 315 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: Tell us about the crowd they're given the pressures of 316 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: this pandemic. Well, Churchill Downs is excited to return the 317 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: Derby to the first Saturday in May. That's the traditional day. 318 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: It's always been run, with two exceptions, uh, once in 319 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: nineteen during World War two and the other was last 320 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 1: year during the pandemic. So we're excited, even if the 321 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: crowd will be a little limited because of social distancing requirements. 322 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 1: Maybe half maybe a little less than half capacity, but 323 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: still the most exciting two minutes in sports will be 324 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 1: returning to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday and May 325 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: Karison Bar. Some of my ancient ancestors were named after 326 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: a gentleman named Henry Clay. There were two generations of 327 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: Henry Clay. Keen. You went to the Henry Clay High 328 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: School in Kentucky, and it is a symbol of the 329 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: tensions of race in this nation back well over a 330 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: hundred years and forever. Please discuss reparations and the tensions 331 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: that you see between the two parties as we engage 332 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 1: this debate again. Well, no doubt there's so much partisanship 333 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: in Washington, and you know President Joe Biden, who is 334 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,719 Speaker 1: a member of the other party for me, gave I 335 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: think an uplifting inaugural address calling for unity and bipartisan solution. 336 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 1: It's unfortunate only ever since that speech we've seen a 337 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: president governed from the hard left, as Uh Karl Rove 338 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: observed recently in the Wall Street Journal. Uh, this so 339 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 1: called infrastructure plan, which is really more of the Green 340 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 1: New Deal and tax increases with no real effort to 341 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: reach out to Republicans. It's really solidifying President Biden's reputation 342 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: as the most profligate and partisan president in history. That's 343 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: a strong statement, but unfortunately there's really not been any 344 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: genuine outreach to the other side of the aisle. Look, 345 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: both parties deserve blame for this, but I would like 346 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: to see this president and congressional Democrats in the majority 347 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: reach out and just at least entertain some of our ideas. Congressman, 348 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: you said, both parties deserve some blame for this, and 349 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: this does seem to be the playbook that every time 350 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: there's a new president, the other side says it's not 351 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: bipartisan at all, and that president goes it alone and says, well, 352 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: we couldn't get anything done if we actually tried to 353 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: do it in a bipartisan level. What could re Publicans 354 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: do right now? Better to actually move closer to a 355 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: bipartisan solution. Well, look, this is not an infrastructure bill 356 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: that the president is proposing. It's a three trillion dollar 357 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: left wing wish list. Only five to six percent can 358 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: be adequately described as financing roads and bridges, which is 359 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: what both parties say. We need. The most generous definition 360 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 1: of infrastructure, which would include things like high speed internet, broadband, ports, airports, uh, 361 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 1: even electrical grid reliability upgrades. Those kinds of infrastructure investments 362 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: I think would earn bipartisan support, but in this bill 363 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: only account for about thirty percent of the total spending. 364 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: We have a new definition of infrastructure, including the care infrastructure, 365 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: which is really just a massive expansion of Medicaid. And 366 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 1: then you have some of these other unrelated items green 367 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: New Deal items that were included. But then on top 368 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: of that, there's no consideration of Republican ideas on financing 369 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: public private partnerships and streamlining of permitting and regulatory reform. 370 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 1: None of those Republican ideas are being even entertained. It's 371 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: just more big government tax and spending, and unfortunately, a huge, 372 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: massive tax increase that will bring us back to the 373 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: bat old days of corporate inversions, moving jobs overseas, stagnant wages, 374 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: and I would argue much lower wages. The National Association 375 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,199 Speaker 1: of Manufacturing says we're gonna lose a million jobs in 376 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 1: the first year if these corporate tax increases go into effect. 377 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: Congress Banner, if there was some sort of agreement that 378 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,119 Speaker 1: was smaller, saying eight hundred billion dollars six hundred and 379 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars. Some Republicans are asking for bipartisan infrastructure 380 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: built targeting the areas that are more commonly thought of 381 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: as infrastructure. Would you be willing to raise taxes to 382 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: pay for it? Well, I think we we ought to 383 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: consider user fees as a way to finance infrastructure. That's 384 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: the way we've always done it in this country. But 385 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: to make America less competitive by not just increasing the 386 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: corporate rate from to but taking our corporate tax rate 387 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: to a level, uh that's higher than the tax rate 388 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: in communist China, raising it to a level that's the 389 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: highest among all developed nations. Because remember, it's not just 390 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: raising the rate from that the President is proposing. He's 391 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: proposing to do so without removing the base broadening reforms 392 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: that we put into place in the Tax Cuts and 393 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 1: Jobs Act. And when you add on top of the 394 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: federal income tax rates, the state and local corporate tax rates, 395 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: that's where you push American corporations into a very non 396 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: competitive position. Congress, And one final question, and I do 397 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,120 Speaker 1: this after President Trump gave support to the Senator from 398 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: Florida a few days ago and a course, with your 399 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: lifelong work with Senator McConnell, I want you to frame 400 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: for us how you perceive your Republican Party right now. 401 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: So much is it's the party of Trump? Is it? Well? Look, 402 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: I mean I think our party is broad and diverse, 403 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: just like the Democratic Party is. These are abroad enveloping coalitions, 404 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 1: but we are still the party of limited governments and 405 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: free enterprise. And what we've seen a troubling trend is 406 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: that a big business wall streets ceo s have kind 407 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: of aligned themselves with the woke left. And um, maybe 408 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: that's a reaction to the Trump phenomenon, where the Republican 409 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: Party is more gravitating toward main street small businesses, farmers, 410 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: a rural America. We represent the grassroots American people, and 411 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 1: large institutions are letting us down. Uh, wall streets, Um, 412 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: and look, I believe in free enterprise. But if if 413 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 1: we're in this battle between capitalism and socialism, and the 414 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: CEOs of the big banks, through their e s g 415 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 1: agenda is aligning themselves with the socialists, where are the 416 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 1: capitalists in this country? I think we need people who 417 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: really believe in free enterprise, and that's main street, small 418 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,919 Speaker 1: businesses and entrepreneurs of cross this country who really believe 419 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 1: in limited government. Congressman, you are a skilled media operator, 420 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: because you must know I've only got forty seconds left 421 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: and can't ask any follow up questions. Andy, can you 422 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: come back so we can pick up where we left 423 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: off place some really important points we need to talk about, 424 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: Congressman Andy bar the Republican from Kentucky, Thank you said. 425 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join 426 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern. I'm 427 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six 428 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 1: to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 429 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 430 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on 431 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,959 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg