WEBVTT - What Takaichi’s Landslide Election Win Means for Japan 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:09.280 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The nie Ki, of course, 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:12.959 already at a record high after that historic landslide victory 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:15.480 by Prime Minister Takaichi and her party. 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.640 Japanese stocks are on a tear this week. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:23.800 As has welcome the resounding election win for promiss Sanai Takaichi, 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:28.480 the LdB winning a standalone super majority, positioning her. 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:33.000 Japanese equities had searched like fresh record highs on Monday. 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.879 Semiconductor stocks are doing really well. Defense related stocks are 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:37.720 doing really well. 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:42.400 Sakura Murakami covers Japanese politics for Bloomberg out of Tokyo. 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.960 She says the country stocks have gotten a big lift 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:50.720 from Japanese Prime Minister Sanai Takeiichi's historic election win this 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:51.519 past weekend. 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:56.760 I'm not sure anyone was really expecting this level of 0:00:56.800 --> 0:01:00.840 a landslide. Three hundred and sixteen seats gained only by 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.080 the Liberal Democratic Party. That's the most seats ever for 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.800 the LDP since is founding in nineteen six. 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:11.120 And that landslide victory came after Takichi made a big gamble. 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.200 She came into power four months ago with the razor 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.959 thin majority in parliament, but she wanted a mandate for 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:23.320 a combination of conservative social policies and populist big spending pledges. 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:25.520 So she called a snap election. 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:30.160 I think everyone was expecting the LDP and Takeichi to win, 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:32.319 but not to this extent. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.920 Takeiichi's win gives her ruling party an outright majority in 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:38.119 Japan's lower house. 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:41.280 She'll be able to kind of push through a lot 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.280 of the policies that she wants to do. She's pushed 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:49.760 forward this idea of Japan being strong and assertive on 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:56.840 the global scene, whether that's economically or militarily or diplomatically. 0:01:57.400 --> 0:02:00.000 It's a historic win. But while she has the pace 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.440 people behind her, the bond market remains skeptical of her 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:04.680 plans for the economy. 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:09.959 The single biggest challenge that Takaichi faces now is delivering 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:14.600 on her campaign promises. That's crucial both for markets and 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:19.920 in terms of regaining investors' trust, and also politically. You know, 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:22.880 if she's seen as weak or enabled to deliver on 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:28.280 her promises, that's going to undermine her political strength as well. 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:31.440 So it all comes down to the execution. 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.120 This is the big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha. 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:44.200 Every week we take you inside some of the world's 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:48.200 biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:52.480 businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:58.160 show Unpacking Sinai Takeiichi's landslide victory, what her vision for 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.720 a more assertive free spending drip looks like, and can 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:05.320 she sell anxious global investors on her bold but risky 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:14.720 economic plans. When Sinnai Takeiichi called a nap election last month, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.760 she was governing from a very shaky position. Her Liberal 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:23.239 Democratic Party combined with its junior coalition partner, we're struggling 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.000 to get by with a slim majority in parliament. 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:28.760 That means she had to do a lot of haggling, 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.639 a lot of negotiating, a lot of discussing with smaller 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:36.000 parties that had leverage over her because she didn't have 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:40.240 a majority. She did have this razor thin majority in 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.720 the lower House, which is more powerful, but it was 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:45.880 two hundred and thirty three seats out of four hundred 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.600 and sixty five. If one person couldn't make it to vote, 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:51.840 she would have lost the majority. So that was how 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:57.440 close she was. And to consolidate her power to really 0:03:57.480 --> 0:03:59.920 push through the policies that she wanted to see implement 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.720 that was a gambit that's obviously paid off. 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:07.640 Now Takeichi's viewed generally as a right wing conservative, but 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:11.200 obviously the election results show that she has such massive, 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:15.880 widespread public support. What's behind her broad appeal. 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:18.919 When I was at her rally, I noticed that she 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.200 would go into her politicies, and the crowd responded the 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:26.720 most when she talked about a strong independent Japan, and 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.359 that wasn't strong and independent in terms of just the 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.880 military and defense, but in terms of the economy. So 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:36.640 when she talked about rare earth and not being so 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:41.200 reliant on certain countries for rare earth supplies, she got 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:44.159 like big cheers basically. So I think that goes to 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:48.919 show that people have been concerned about the economy and 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:53.120 they see the strength that she's portraying and that she's 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:57.640 trying to present to the public as a way forward, 0:04:58.120 --> 0:04:59.960 something they can be hopeful about for the future. 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:05.000 And she's hugely charismatic, especially with her personal story, right. 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:09.520 She's got a great personal story. She rides motorbikes, heavy 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:13.920 metal drummer. She's a drummer. When she was in university, 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.680 you know, she would rock up to her classes with 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.599 pink hair. She had long hair had pink streaks in them. 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.160 She's such a character and you can see that in 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:27.599 the way that she presents herself on social media as well. 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.280 So one of the moments that went viral for her 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.520 was this big hug that she gave Italian Prime Minister 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:38.800 Georgia Maloney at the g twenty last year. It was 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:42.000 the first time that they met, but their eyes locked 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:44.560 across the room and they just like jumped into this 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:47.960 huge embrace, which kind of went viral. And it's very 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:51.880 unusual for a Japanese leader, I think, to have that 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:56.400 level of closeness immediately and immediate rapport with a foreign leader. 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.400 Now, Taki she styles herself as a conservative, but some 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.200 say her economic strategy isn't what you expect of a conservative. 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:08.839 Talk is through her political branding and what her particular 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.120 vision of conservatism looks like. 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:15.800 So she kind of takes all those boxes of like 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.960 a standard Japanese right wing politician. She wants to see 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:23.920 a strong Japanese military, she wants to take a bold 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:29.520 stance on China. So those are classically politically conservative issues 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:34.440 in Japan. Economically, though, I think Takaichi wants to see 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.280 a kind of rejuvenation of the Japanese economy, and that 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:44.400 also includes letting companies fail, which was not really something 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:49.000 politicians wanted to do previously, especially in terms of winning 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:52.159 votes and having the political strength that comes from these 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.640 sorts of companies that aren't doing too well but are 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:59.279 being propped up by subsidies from the government. And I 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:03.719 think the focus is on productivity. Where can Japan's economy 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:08.840 be more productive and what areas is the Japanese government 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:13.280 subsidizing that isn't actually as productive as it could be. 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:17.600 And that is very much focused on investing in the 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:22.440 areas that need investment, but then slimming down the government 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.800 and being very efficient in governmance in general. 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.920 Now Techichi and her Liberal Democratic Party have secured a 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:33.640 super majority in the important lower house. What does this 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:37.679 mean for her politically and the party's ability to push 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:38.760 through its agenda. 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:43.160 Now this is huge for Takeichi because it gives her 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:48.280 such a huge mandate. The ruling coalition still doesn't have 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:53.000 a majority in the upper house, so there is that roadblock. 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:55.600 But if you have a supermajority in the lower house, 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:58.000 the lower house is more powerful than the upper house, 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:02.360 and it can overrule the Upper House, so that just 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:06.160 gives her so much of a free hand to push 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.480 through the policies that she wants to see implemented. Overall, 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.120 it's about spending more investing in the areas that need 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:18.200 investment and seeing Japan's economy grow again, investing in an 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:23.280 economy for Japan that actually sees more growth, like semiconductor 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:28.120 related sectors and defense companies. She's talked so many times 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:31.480 on the campaign trail about this island off the coast 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:36.680 of Japan, Minami Tadishima, that has apparently has rare earth, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:41.120 and she's talking about digging up these rare earths to 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:44.800 ensure that Japan isn't so reliant on other countries or 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.720 a single country for its supply chain of rare earth. 0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:50.560 So this is kind of like the idea, the vision 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:51.720 that she has for Japan. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:58.680 Voters love Prime Minister Sanaitakiichi and overwhelmingly back her vision 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:02.760 for more assertive but the bond market is spooked by 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:06.319 her fiscal policies, why her spending plan could be risky, 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:10.680 and what her win means for Japan's geopolitical ties. That's 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:27.800 after the break Japan has grappled with economic stagnation for decades, 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:32.760 but inflation kicked in during the pandemic bloomberg. Zakura Murakami 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.679 says that it's now one of the most pressing issues 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:36.760 facing the government. 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:41.440 So Japan in the past thirty years hasn't seen prices 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.960 rise at all. That's a whole generation of people who 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:49.679 have not experienced inflation. But now in the past couple 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.920 of years or so, we're actually seeing inflation in earnest. 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.079 One of the most emblematic changes is the price of rice. 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.800 It doubled in about a year, and rice is basically 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:05.080 like the eggs or you know, the bread of the 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:09.199 average household in Japan. It's the staple grain. Before you know, 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.920 the price of everything has just gone up, and this 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:16.760 is really weighing on the average Japanese household. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:22.160 To help families struggling with inflation, Takeiichi promised a two 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.040 year cut to the sales tax on food and non 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:29.000 alcoholic drinks, but it was a controversial pledge. The move 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:33.240 would cost about thirty two billion dollars in lost revenue annually. 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.600 That's about six percent of what the country collects in taxes. 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:42.079 Sakura says that investors were already uneasy about Japan's massive 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:46.600 public debt, the highest among developed nations, and they're now 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:50.319 rattled about a big spending plan with no clear way 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:51.200 to pay for it. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:55.880 When she started her campaign, she put the sales tax 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.440 cut on food front and center. Through the campaign trail, 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:03.720 she's really toned down that messaging. She barely mentioned the 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:08.200 sales tax cut in her rallies in her speeches while 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.160 she was on the campaign trail. I think that goes 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:16.439 to show the impact the market jitters. Since the election win, 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:21.319 she's said, well, continue to discuss this. Takayji herself has 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:25.679 also said, as has the Finance Minister Katayama, that the 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:30.560 planned tax cut wouldn't require additional bond issuance. They've kind 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:34.160 of said, we are going to spend aggressively, but an 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.839 important part of that is also spending responsibly. I think 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.439 it's difficult for Takaichu to back out of it at 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.320 this point, but you know, it is really about showing 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.120 that this is doable, this is feasible, that there is 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:51.400 alternative funding, and we haven't seen that yet. 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.480 Yeah, that seems to be important since we obviously in 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.880 the last few weeks we saw meltdown in Japan's bond market, right, 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.400 is the election results you think like to calm nerves 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:04.320 in the long run or does it make investors even 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:07.520 more jittery now that she has public support to push 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:08.800 her spending policy through. 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:13.280 So far there's relative calm in the currency. Also in 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.280 the fixed income markets, we're not seeing the kind of 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.320 meltdown that we saw with Liz Trust when she announced 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:22.680 her kind of physical plans. So I do think the 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:27.960 aggressive spending part, the sort of tax cut part, tends 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:32.200 to get more play, but she is really trying to 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:37.040 emphasize the responsible part of it. She has been consistent 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:41.840 about saying the plan tax cut won't require additional bond issuance, 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:45.040 and that's kind of part of the fiscal finance that 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:46.880 she's trying to portray as well. 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.959 So Gurda, I do want to pivot to geopolitics. Takichi 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:55.760 made headlines shortly after becoming Prime Minister with controversial remarks 0:12:55.800 --> 0:13:00.800 that suggested Japan could intervene militarily if chinad tag Taiwan. 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.520 Of course, that's stoked tensions with China that are still 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.640 simmering today. With her win at the polls, are we 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:10.280 likely to see Taki she really doubled down on that 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.040 Hawker stance on China. 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.160 Yeah, part of her appeal has been this kind of 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:21.480 strong stand she's taken with China and just in general, 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.760 she's like very straightforward, and I think this kind of 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:29.320 unwillingness to back down under the economic pressure of China 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:33.240 after her comments on Taiwan really appealed to the public. 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:37.000 Polls showed that the general public was kind of generally 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:41.280 in favor with Takaichi's comments and also with how Takaichi 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.040 handled the issue that being said. You know, as I 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:49.640 mentioned earlier, she's a conventional right wing politician. I think 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.160 one of the things, for example, that she would want 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:56.080 to do personally is visit Yeskuni Shrine, which is a 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.839 very controversial shrine that honors the Japanese warted, but also 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:04.920 war criminals passed. Visits to the shrine by Koizumi by 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:10.080 Abe have really angered, for example, China and South Korea. 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.640 When she was asked about a potential visit to Yescony 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:17.199 yesterday after the election, she said she wanted to create 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:22.200 an environment where all countries and all people can honor 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:24.280 the war dead in the way that they want to. 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.800 Now, we saw President Donald Trump indoors Takeichi before the election, 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.400 and he since congratulated her on the win. US Treasury 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.360 Secretary Scott Bessont also wighed in. 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.360 Boy, has she had a big victory today President Trump 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.960 in doorst last week. She is a great ally, great 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.960 relationship with a president. And when Japan is strong, the 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.040 US is strong in Asia. 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.600 I wonder what we can expect out of these warmer 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:54.000 US Japan ties. Japan is a US ally sitting right 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:57.600 next to the biggest US rival, China? How is she 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:01.320 going to navigate being sandwiched between the to global rivals 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:02.600 on the world stage. 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:08.960 So she's very much sort of leaning into her personal 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:13.760 relationship with Trump. They have this natural rapport. She'll be 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.640 going to the US in March ahead of Trump's visit 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:22.280 to China. Trump has always grumbled about the US having 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.840 to defend other countries and other countries not really paying 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:30.080 up for their own defense, and Takaiji is aligned on 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.880 that thinking. She wants Japan's military to be stronger. She 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:38.400 wants Japan to be capable of defending itself. So when 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.640 she goes to the US in March, that'll probably be 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:45.880 a topic of discussion between them. Takaichi already has plans 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:51.240 to revise Japan's defense spending and Japan's defense policy as well. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:53.680 On the other hand, China's not going to be too 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:58.520 happy about that, but that also plays into Takaichi's sort 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.160 of policy with China. In the four months that she's 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.880 been in office, she's already taken quite a strong stand 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.640 against China. She's been very firm about holding her ground 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.520 and I think we'll see more of that during her term. 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:16.080 And obviously, Japan's economy is very reliant on China's economy 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.080 as well. There's a very strong trade relationship there, but 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:24.920 Takichi maybe looking into decoupling and making Japan more assertive 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.960 and independent in that respect as well. 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.200 With this huge mandate that Takichi and the party is won, 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.120 she has the power to move her agenda forward. How 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.480 do you think that changes her political calculus going forward. 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.640 I mean, she's been in office for four months and 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:47.320 the budget that she has passed so far was the 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:52.200 budget from a previous prime minister. So this is the 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.440 first time that she can actually do things her own 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:58.000 way and pull together a budget that she wants to 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.360 push through. And obviously, with the huge mandate, from the public. 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.080 She'll be able to push it through Parliament as well. 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.800 So far, given that her hands were tied politically, given 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.120 that she didn't have a clear majority, she didn't quite 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:14.919 have the space to maneuver in the way that she 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.040 wanted to. But now she has a clear mandate. The 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:22.480 question now is how effectively can she actually implement the 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:26.359 policies that she's pledged so far. It's been some talk 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:31.560 for some time, but will we actually see these policies 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.200 being realized and actually implemented. 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.400 It sounds like this is actually where the hard work 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:36.760 comes in. 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:48.320 Right after this, Yeah, right after the Big Wing exactly. Yeah. 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.600 This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha. 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.160 To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:58.320 to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.600 dot com slash podcast Offer. 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