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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday, have an amazing show for

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Speaker 2: everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, prysonal indeed, we do, guess what, guys,

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Speaker 1: one week, seven day to election day. We are taking

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Speaker 1: a look this morning at the top ads for each

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Speaker 1: campaign where they are spending the most dollars, making their

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Speaker 1: closing cases very interesting. Contrast in terms of what their

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Speaker 1: theory of how to move voters in these final days.

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Speaker 4: Are is whatever. I don't know. Well, thank flish. Language

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Speaker 4: is really going well this morning, all right.

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Speaker 1: We also are going to take a look at the

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Speaker 1: bull case for Kamala. We've been looking at some negative

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Speaker 1: indicators for her, some positive indicators for Trump, so today

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Speaker 1: we wanted to flip the script into there are a

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Speaker 1: few pieces of news that fit nicely into.

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Speaker 4: That, So we're going to make that case.

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Speaker 1: We also are going to take a look at how

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Speaker 1: Trump is prepping Stop the Steal two point zero and

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Speaker 1: whether or not those efforts could be successful given that

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Speaker 1: you have new legislation that's passed, given that he is

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Speaker 1: no longer president of the United States. So we'll dig

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Speaker 1: into the weeds with that, so everybody knows what to

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Speaker 1: expect were he to lose the race next week. Both

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Speaker 1: camps out there playing for the Muslim vote, especially in

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Speaker 1: the state of Michigan. Barack Obama making some interesting comments

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Speaker 1: yesterday that comes on the heels of Trump securing some

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Speaker 1: Muslim endorsements that he touted in that state, which of

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Speaker 1: course is crucial. Elon is being sued over his big

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Speaker 1: daily million dollar lottery by the Philly DA and he

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Speaker 1: also his organizing efforts on the ground have come under

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Speaker 1: scrutiny to see whether or not they have been successful.

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Speaker 1: On the Trump campaign's behalf. We're also doing a little

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Speaker 1: follow up, just a quick follow up on this whole

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Speaker 1: Washington Post story. We added this yesterday when we found

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Speaker 1: out that after Bezos decided that they were not going

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Speaker 1: to endure in this race. They have lost more than

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Speaker 1: two hundred thousand subscribers.

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Speaker 4: Yesterday the number we were getting was two thousand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, then NPR was able to report by yesterday midday,

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Speaker 1: so it's undoubtedly more than this.

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Speaker 4: At this point, they had lost.

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Speaker 1: More than two hundred thousand subscribers. That is like ten

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Speaker 1: percent of their subscriber base, so they are bleading subscribers

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Speaker 1: at this point. Bezos himself felt the need to come

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Speaker 1: out and publish it on BED. I don't think it

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Speaker 1: helped matter, So we'll bring you all of that, and

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Speaker 1: then I have a monolog today and taking a look

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Speaker 1: at Trump's most important potentially moment on Joe Rogan, which

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Speaker 1: went a little bit undernoticed given the Wale psychologists discussion

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Speaker 1: and then the whole Madison Square gardens situation. But something

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Speaker 1: important that we should all take a look at. There

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Speaker 1: we go, that's what's on TEP.

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Speaker 2: Before we get to that. Thank you to all of

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Speaker 2: our premium subscribers. We're really excited one week to election day,

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Speaker 2: Breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 3: You can take advantage.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of fun stuff literally running a

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Speaker 2: bunch of tests today for election night. We've got an

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Speaker 2: exclusive partnership with Logan Phillips with Decision Desk HQ, we

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Speaker 2: are going to be a full fledged newsroom on election Night,

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Speaker 2: which is really exciting. That's something that you guys have

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Speaker 2: been asking for for years and we invested.

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Speaker 3: A lot into it.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to sign up support that, Breakingpoints

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Speaker 2: dot Com will also have some subscriber benefits that you

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Speaker 2: guys will be able to take advantage of on election Night.

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Speaker 2: So we're really excited. We've got a whole week of

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Speaker 2: coverage and all that planned. No matter what happens, we

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Speaker 2: will be there right there with you. So, as Chrystal said,

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Speaker 2: let's start with the ads, and the ads give us

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Speaker 2: a lot of insight into the dollar figures that are

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Speaker 2: being spent and similarly, what most people are hearing. I

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Speaker 2: know a lot of people will watch this show and

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Speaker 2: who are online. You guys are consuming a lot of stuff.

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Speaker 2: But if you're just you know, living your life in

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Speaker 2: the Pennsylvania and Arizona, in Wisconsin or others, this is

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Speaker 2: most likely what you are going to see on your airwave.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to start with Kamala Harris and the

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Speaker 2: two ads that have the most money behind them in

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Speaker 2: the Swing States.

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Speaker 3: Let's take a listen a lot of money. I know,

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Speaker 3: Richard Well, we're going to Twitter.

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Speaker 5: I am not rich as hell. I work hard. I

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Speaker 5: scrape to get by. Donald Trump wants to give tax

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Speaker 5: breaks to billionaires, but Kamala Harris has plans to help us.

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Speaker 5: She's going to crack down on price gouging and cut

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Speaker 5: taxes for working people like me. I voted for Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump before, but this time I'm voting for Kamala.

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Speaker 4: I no, what are you doing.

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Speaker 3: You're rich as hell. I'm going to give you. I'm

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Speaker 3: not rich as hell.

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Speaker 6: I'm the one that really needs to break not the

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Speaker 6: people that are already rich and have the money. The

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Speaker 6: one percent don't serve anybody but themselves, So for them

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Speaker 6: to get a tax break, no, that's not cool. Kamala

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Speaker 6: Harris is gonna make billionaires pay their fair share, and

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Speaker 6: she's gonna cut taxes for working people like me. I'm buddy,

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Speaker 6: and I'm not rich as hell, and I'm voting for

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Speaker 6: Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: F F Pact is responsible for the content of this ad.

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Speaker 2: So those were the two ads. They've got what forty

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Speaker 2: something million dollars behind them. Now you can clearly see

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Speaker 2: that it's very focused on the richest. Hell comment, I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't note that that second ad that resident is from Allentown, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: I've come to know the region well, it's for my

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Speaker 2: wife's family is from. Ronald Trump will actually be there

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Speaker 2: today because of a big swinging area. It also is

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Speaker 2: the first test. It has one of the largest Puerto

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Speaker 2: Rican populations in the state. And having been there, I

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Speaker 2: can tell you there's yard signs everywhere for both candidates.

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Speaker 2: So in terms of the enthusiasm, they certainly take it

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Speaker 2: seriously for who they're going to vote for. But it

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Speaker 2: is certainly that last part is one that you're seeing

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Speaker 2: quite a bit on the airwaves, specifically for Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: on that And frankly, I was a little bit surprised

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Speaker 2: because if you also from my own experience having been there,

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Speaker 2: watch some Eagle game or Phillies game. Well there it

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Speaker 2: was a lot more abortion ads that I saw. But

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Speaker 2: it maybe things have changed in the last month or

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Speaker 2: so on this tax and a billionaire one.

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Speaker 3: But look, it's not a bad strategy.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, It's one that anybody who watches this show would

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Speaker 2: be able to connect to and could understand why that

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Speaker 2: would move swing voters so very much, could be the

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Speaker 2: thing that pushes over the edge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're going for class war, and obviously I'm here

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Speaker 1: for it. You know, I've been seeing one in Virginia

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Speaker 1: that is similar that says, like, you know, Canada Day

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Speaker 1: is for the billionaires and actually even has a picture

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Speaker 1: of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and a bunch of other Yeah,

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Speaker 1: which is kind of noteworthy. And then Canada be is

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Speaker 1: for you is basically the idea so very much in

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Speaker 1: line with this. The first one we showed you also

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Speaker 1: hit the note of like, listen, I voted for Trump

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Speaker 1: in the past, this time I'm going with Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: So one thing that's noteworthy to me is while a

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Speaker 1: lot of what is you know, what the speeches are

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Speaker 1: about Kama's coming out and doing this speech on the ellipse,

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Speaker 1: is that today that might be today actually, but she's

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Speaker 1: giving that big, like closing speech on the Ellipse that's

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Speaker 1: supposed to be about like democracy and those larger threats.

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Speaker 1: They're talking a lot about the comments from John Kelly saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: I serve with this guy and he is a.

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Speaker 4: Fascist to the core.

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Speaker 1: While they're doing that in terms of the sort of

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Speaker 1: national media messaging, what they're actually putting paid and like

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Speaker 1: what they're running paid ads on is this much more

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Speaker 1: class economic focus message. And you know, some of the

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Speaker 1: polling indicates that this has helped to move voters so

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Speaker 1: that she has at the very least narrowed the gap

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Speaker 1: with Trump on the economy. Some polls show that she

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Speaker 1: is actually exceeding him or has matched him with regard

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Speaker 1: to who people feel will be better for the economy.

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Speaker 1: Every pole I've seen shows voters giving her an edge

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Speaker 1: on who would be better for the middle class. That's

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Speaker 1: obviously the message they're driving here. So you know, in general,

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Speaker 1: I think it's pretty smart strategy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And then for Trump, I mean clearly, and I've been

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Speaker 2: talking about this, it's immigration all day long, and we're

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Speaker 2: going to get to issues and what people say is

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Speaker 2: their top I honestly kind of don't believe them anymore.

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Speaker 2: I've gotten to that just because of where the way

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Speaker 2: that the dollar figures are being spent on various different things,

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Speaker 2: and also in terms of.

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Speaker 3: What's moving the needle.

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Speaker 2: Could be wrong, though Kamala certainly does win. So here

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Speaker 2: are two of the biggest ads with money behind Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 7: His San Francisco DA liberal Kamala Harris later killers go free,

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Speaker 7: and as California Attorney Gender, Kamala continued to put criminals first.

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Speaker 7: After a little girl was raped and buried alive, laws

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Speaker 7: were passed to keep sex offenders away from children, Kamala

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Speaker 7: ignored Jessica's law and allowed convicted sex offenders to live

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Speaker 7: near schools and parks. Kamala Harris has always put criminals first.

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Speaker 7: Don't make America her next victim. Make America Great Again, Inc.

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Speaker 7: Is responsible for the content of this advertising.

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Speaker 8: He murdered a father of three sentenced to life in prison.

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Speaker 8: Kamala Harris pushed to use tax dollars to pay for

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Speaker 8: his sex change.

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Speaker 9: I made sure that they changed the policy so that

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Speaker 9: every transgender inmate would have access.

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Speaker 8: It sounds insane because it is insane. Kamala was the

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Speaker 8: first to help pay for a prisoner's sex change.

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Speaker 9: The power that I had, I used it in a

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Speaker 9: way that was about pushing for the movement. Frankly, and

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Speaker 9: the agenda.

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Speaker 8: Kamala's agenda is they them, not you.

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Speaker 3: I'm Donald J. Trump, and I approved this message.

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Speaker 2: That last when I heard over and over again when

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Speaker 2: I was there in Pennsylvania. But I mean, look, I

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Speaker 2: think it's clearly that they have some different theories about

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Speaker 2: what is going to move people, and actually, can we

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Speaker 2: put a sticks up on the screen, because this is

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Speaker 2: really what it all comes down to our people. What

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Speaker 2: do people mean when they say certain things are their

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Speaker 2: top issues? So here is from Pew researchers came out

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Speaker 2: last month. The economy is the top issues for voters

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. Number one is the economy amongst

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Speaker 2: Harris and Trump supporters and all voters at eighty one percent.

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Speaker 2: Number two is healthcare at sixty five. Three is Supreme Court, four,

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Speaker 2: foreign policy, five, violent crime six Immigration. But the thing is,

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Speaker 2: how can you look at those ads where that are

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Speaker 2: being run and say that this comports with that and

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Speaker 2: specifically in terms of what switches it like If healthcare

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Speaker 2: is truly number two, I don't see a single person

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Speaker 2: talking about healthcare in terms of that concepts of a

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Speaker 2: plan answer from Trump, which obviously was ridiculous, But then

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Speaker 2: you would assume if that was so devastating that the

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Speaker 2: Harris campaign would be pumping it into every swing state

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Speaker 2: living room.

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Speaker 3: They seem to believe that they can compete.

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Speaker 2: As you said on this better for the middle class question,

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Speaker 2: a lot of people still do trust Trump on the economy.

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Speaker 2: The spread is not the way that it used to be,

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Speaker 2: but it's pretty clear that immigration is that number one now.

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Speaker 2: The other theory is that if you do look at

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Speaker 2: the spread between immigration and between immigration for Democrats and Republicans,

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Speaker 2: immigration is a number two issue for Republicans, right, and

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Speaker 2: then violent crime is what I think number three, just

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Speaker 2: eyeballing it there. So if that's true, then the other

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Speaker 2: way we could read it is that Trump's ads are

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Speaker 2: all about driving his base and making sure that turnout

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Speaker 2: is as high as possible, whereas with Kamala, obviously they

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Speaker 2: have abortion, which is one of their top issues. But

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Speaker 2: for them it says, what, if I'm reading correctly, healthcare,

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court are their top issues.

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Speaker 3: I don't hear a lot of that coming out of them.

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Speaker 2: So maybe theirs is more of a swing state strategy

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Speaker 2: and they're just banking on these voters who are already

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Speaker 2: committed Dems on abortion to come out and vote. But

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Speaker 2: either way, none of this is one hundred percent like

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Speaker 2: aligns with the app As we've seen Crystal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's culture war versus class war in

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Speaker 1: terms of the closing messages that they are making on

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Speaker 1: the airwaves. And I don't think that it's necessarily surprising

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Speaker 1: given the way that Trump has run campaigns in the past,

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Speaker 1: that his is a base turnout strategy. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's part of why you see the like Madison Square

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Speaker 1: Garden rally and letting their freak flag fly, like very

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Speaker 1: different from how you would normally position yourself for a

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Speaker 1: general election. And you know, we'll see I've seen some

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Speaker 1: polling that suggested that the you know, the ad attack

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Speaker 1: attacking Kamala Harris on transgender issues in particular, has been

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Speaker 1: very ineffective in that many voters couldn't even recall that

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Speaker 1: they'd seen it, in spite of the fact that it's

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Speaker 1: blanketed the airwaves. And then you know, on the hair side,

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Speaker 1: I think you're right that they're looking more at That's

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Speaker 1: part of why having the Republican they're saying I used

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Speaker 1: to be with Trump, now I'm with Kamala. They're really

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Speaker 1: trying to go at that sort of moderate swing voter

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Speaker 1: they're still in.

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Speaker 4: They're in the mode of still trying.

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Speaker 1: To persuade some of those swing voters that they think

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Speaker 1: are gettable for them, potentially in the suburbs. And so

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Speaker 1: that's the direction that they're ultimately going in. You know,

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Speaker 1: from based on the polling research that that we've seen

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Speaker 1: what Matt KRP shared with us from the Center for

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Speaker 1: Working Class Politics about the messages that work best, especially

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Speaker 1: in the swing state of Pennsylvania. You know, they found

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Speaker 1: that the uh, basically class war like the strong populist

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Speaker 1: message pulled best in terms of moving voters. The second

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Speaker 1: was progressive economics that you know move voters, and then

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Speaker 1: way down the list was the threat to democracy message.

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Speaker 1: So you know, it seems like the Harris people are

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Speaker 1: seeing that and at least in terms of their paid communications,

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Speaker 1: are responding accordingly. And you know, I guess one of

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Speaker 1: the big questions is how much paid community communications to

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Speaker 1: move anybody at this point, you know, is it? But

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Speaker 1: even if it's marginal, the tens of millions of dollars

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Speaker 1: that are blanketing the airwaves, you have to think that

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Speaker 1: it accounts for something. The last thing I'll say about

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Speaker 1: the Trump campaign strategy, which we mentioned before, is these

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Speaker 1: ads are not just about those specific issues they're also

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Speaker 1: about painting a portrait of Kamala Harris as having these

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Speaker 1: like weird extreme ideas and it's not worthy to me too.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the different strategies, this was something we

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Speaker 1: saw in the dollar figures previously. The Democratic campaign is

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Speaker 1: doing some straight negative but most of their ad dollars

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Speaker 1: and that's what we saw on the two ads that

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Speaker 1: we ran for you are a contrast, right, They're about,

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Speaker 1: here's a positive for Kamala Harris in contrast to a

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Speaker 1: negative for Donald Trump. The Trump is campaign is leaning

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Speaker 1: heavily into just negatives, not building up Trump. Not a contrast,

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Speaker 1: but like, let's try to dirty u Kamala Harris, Let's

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Speaker 1: make you question whether she's really the person that you

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Speaker 1: want there as commander in chief.

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Speaker 4: And probably that has to do, you know.

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Speaker 1: Partly with just like a different philosophy about what moves voters,

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Speaker 1: and also the fact that she does have a higher

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Speaker 1: approval rating than him, so they probably feel like they

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Speaker 1: need to bring her back.

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Speaker 3: Down there as a bit. That's what I mean for Trump.

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Speaker 2: Everybody on Earth at this point knows how they feel

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Speaker 2: about Donald Trump, positively or negatively. I don't think building

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Speaker 2: him up is going to change all of that. But

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Speaker 2: the last part I would really get to is this

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Speaker 2: theory paid communications versus earned media, And I'm just a

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Speaker 2: firm believer that earned media in the national media environment

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Speaker 2: is just so much more important.

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Speaker 3: Even putting earned a side.

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Speaker 2: So, for example, Kamala may be done by how much

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Speaker 2: is it forty million behind those two ads? I think

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Speaker 2: we just said, But I mean the truth is is

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Speaker 2: that the majority of her media coverage in the last

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Speaker 2: two weeks has been almost all Liz Cheney democracy focused.

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Speaker 2: That was what her event, and I think it was

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Speaker 2: in Malvern, Pennsylvania, one of the wealthiest suburbs of the

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia mainline with Liz Cheney was all about similar in Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Her her event, I think today is about democracy the fascism.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this has become like basically mainstream if you

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Speaker 2: look on CNN or any elsewhere in terms of what

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Speaker 2: the majority discussion is is all about, like Trump is

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Speaker 2: a fascist and all that. I mean, Frank, look again,

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Speaker 2: I could be two twenty sixteen rose colored glasses, but

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Speaker 2: it's all been tried before, and if any I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's the least original argument in the book. Trump is

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Speaker 2: going to be a fascist. Trump is going to be

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Speaker 2: a dictator. The other side of it would be exactly

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Speaker 2: what I just said about Donald Trump. This is a

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Speaker 2: base turnout strategy. Democrats hate Trump. You know, I'm walking

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Speaker 2: around my neighborhood, which is ninety something percent for Biden dictatorship.

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Speaker 2: Bad signs are everywhere. Stop Project twenty. I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is the beating heart of true Blue. But I mean

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Speaker 2: these people are fired up, They're ready to vote. And

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Speaker 2: I saw somebody say that Democrats seem more enthusiastic than

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Speaker 2: they have been since a campaign.

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Speaker 3: Of Barack Obama.

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Speaker 2: Obviously Barack Obama won twice, right, so that's not a

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Speaker 2: bad thing, yeah, to be at, but some of the

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Speaker 2: turnout data doesn't necessarily comport with that. We're going to

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Speaker 2: do a segment soon about early vote. It actually is

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Speaker 2: not looking terrible for a comma, but I have seen

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Speaker 2: the warning signs. I think is in Milwaukee, for example,

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Speaker 2: black turnout is like a forty year low. There's a

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Speaker 2: little bit different signs in Georgia, but low blackturn it

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Speaker 2: would not be what happened with Barack Obama.

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Speaker 3: So of course, you know, we can look in every

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Speaker 3: different direction.

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Speaker 2: What we're all just trying to do here is just

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Speaker 2: show people this is what swing voters are more likely

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Speaker 2: to see. But they're also very likely to consume a

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Speaker 2: lot of national media through the ether, not through watching

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Speaker 2: CNN or elsewhere, through online, through clips, through this show,

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Speaker 2: any other podcast that people listen to, and I'm just

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Speaker 2: generally going.

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Speaker 3: To bet on the ladder for what people are really

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Speaker 3: going to hear.

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Speaker 1: I think probably for Democrats, the messaging about fascism and

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Speaker 1: the danger, the sort of existential danger that Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: poses to the country, that's probably about bringing their.

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Speaker 4: Own voters home.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I was thinking, And.

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Speaker 1: There has been some signs of that, by the way.

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Speaker 1: For example, there was a poll, an NDABLEACP poll of

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Speaker 1: black men in particular, and they had pulled them before,

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Speaker 1: and it showed black men shifting back towards Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 1: her winning especially among young black men, her winning black

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Speaker 1: men in this particular poll overall at the same rates

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Speaker 1: as Joe Biden. So I do think some of the messaging,

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Speaker 1: the sort of earned media messaging from the Harris campaign

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Speaker 1: and the speech she's giving, etc. Is about kind of

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Speaker 1: bringing people who typically vote Democratic, who are maybe disgusted

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Speaker 1: with the Biden policy potentially on the Warren Gaza trying

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Speaker 1: to bring them back home. I think it's probably some

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Speaker 1: of the strategy there. And then you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: Trump doesn't do himself any favors with having this Madison

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Speaker 1: Square Garden rally where he's calling where his warm up

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Speaker 1: backs is calling Puerto Rico and island garbage and making

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Speaker 1: all kinds of other offensive comments throughout the night, not

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Speaker 1: just from the comedian, and that Nate Silver had a

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Speaker 1: write up of whether or not he thought that would

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Speaker 1: make a difference. Move the needle can put that up

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Speaker 1: in the screen.

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Speaker 4: He thinks it could be. And the reason is he

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Speaker 4: looks at in.

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Speaker 1: Particular the Google search traffic for Trump and it has

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Speaker 1: spiked after the Madison Square Garden rally. Now maybe you

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Speaker 1: think that's the positive because hey, Trump's you know, dominating

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Speaker 1: the narrative, blah blah blah. But I think more this

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Speaker 1: is feeding a democratic narrative about the reminding people of

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Speaker 1: the negatives, the reasons they soured on Donald Trump before,

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Speaker 1: and his approval rating had especially post assassination, had assassination

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Speaker 1: attempt had creeped up and kind of stayed there. So

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Speaker 1: there is room for him for those negatives to creep

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Speaker 1: back up.

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Speaker 4: So in that sense, I don't really agree with. I

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Speaker 4: know it's a common analysis.

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Speaker 1: I understand where it comes from, that like none of

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Speaker 1: these scandals really stick to him, but he does historically.

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Speaker 4: Have like a low approval rating.

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Speaker 1: He did lose in twenty twenty, his party did poorly

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Speaker 1: in both twenty eighteen and surprisingly in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 4: So and I don't know.

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Speaker 1: That it's totally accurate. He can, there is no doubt

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Speaker 1: he can get away with things that would be total

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Speaker 1: career enders for virtually any other politician. But the idea

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Speaker 1: has no impact at all. I don't really buy that,

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Speaker 1: because we have seen how his approval rating has been

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Speaker 1: consistently negative in part because of these sorts of stuns

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Speaker 1: as usual.

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Speaker 2: The state the case can be overstated in both directions.

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Speaker 2: I would put it what you just said is that

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Speaker 2: in general, these things don't tend to stick. In twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: lose by some forty thousand votes across three states. It's

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Speaker 2: not exactly an overwhelming mandate by Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: And if we consider I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, he won the popular vote by four and a

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Speaker 1: half percentage, right, But that doesn't matter any won all

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Speaker 1: the critical battleground states. So yeah, it's I mean, sometimes

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Speaker 1: on how.

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Speaker 2: You look at Georgia ten thousand in Arizona. I forget

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Speaker 2: what the other I think is Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Right, But I'm just saying, you know, when you lose

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Speaker 1: the popular vote by almost five percentage points, like that

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Speaker 1: is a significant vote against you. And given the fact

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Speaker 1: that now the gap has likely closed between the electoral

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Speaker 1: college and the popular vote, like you know, if you certainly,

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Speaker 1: if you if he faced today a four and a

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Speaker 1: half point loss, it would be a landslide in terms

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Speaker 1: of the battleground states all going to Kamala Harrison definitely.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't look like if that's going be the case.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if anything, what I think with Trump is

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Speaker 2: a lot of this stuff is baked in and ultimately

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Speaker 2: what will swing the so called swing independent voters. And

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Speaker 2: it's just difficult, I think for anybody who does this

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Speaker 2: for a living or has long standing and well held

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Speaker 2: political beliefs to understand it's just not how those people

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Speaker 2: think maybe this will be enough to push them over

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Speaker 2: the edge. But something that has been consistent with these

441
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 2: swinging independent voters, the things that piss them off or

442
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 2: not the things that may piss you off, or any

443
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 2: other like liberal commentator, same vice versa. By the way,

444
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: for you know, anybody who's on the right, you know,

445
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 2: somebody who's saying that is something verboten to us or ridiculous,

446
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 2: doesn't sound all that ridiculous.

447
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 3: Whenever it goes to a swing voter.

448
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 2: What actually moves them is almost impossible to determine. It's

449
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 2: like alchemy in terms of what the actual like spotlight

450
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 2: on Trump is going to see. One of the reasons

451
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 2: my bias, and again this is a bias tells me

452
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: that it's probably good for him, is that the more

453
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 2: reason control of the conversation, the better off that he is.

454
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 2: As it has been in the past for his approval ratings. Now,

455
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 2: the question is about whether things have shifted enough from

456
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two onward for people to take this very

457
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: very seriously in the way that they did then that

458
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 2: they didn't, let's say, in twenty and sixteen, and same

459
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: with Republican voters. Now, the Republican voter data would have

460
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 2: to comport with the idea that there is some long

461
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 2: heald like revulsion with Trump, but there hasn't it hasn't happened. Like,

462
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 2: if the Liz Cheney Democratic theory of like, oh, drump

463
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: is so bad that he's turning people off were true,

464
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 2: you would see higher percentage of Republicans not wanting to

465
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 2: vote for him. But I mean, in the New York

466
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 2: Times Santa Poal, Trump is actually doing better with Republicans

467
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: and Kama is doing with Democrats. Now we're talking about

468
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: two and four points. Okay, so let's not overstate the

469
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 2: case either direction. But my point is you would want

470
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: that number to be like ten percent.

471
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 4: Now.

472
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 2: The other theory is anybody who's still pissed off by Trump,

473
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 2: they're not Democrats or they're not Republicans anymore. They left

474
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 2: the party a long time ago. And in fact, if

475
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: you roll the tape, I kind of predicted that in

476
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 2: twenty twenty.

477
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was totally wrong.

478
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 2: I've thought that there actually would be, you know, some

479
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: sort of pushback or whatever. But yeah, by and large,

480
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 2: it hasn't been the case people reconcile themselves to Trump.

481
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 2: I think the Biden presidency has not been good, and

482
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 2: so based on that a lot of people are willing

483
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: to just come home and have negative polarization and partisanship.

484
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 2: I genuinely have no clue. We will obviously find out

485
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 2: on election day. But everybody who thinks that these are

486
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 2: enders for Trump, I mean, how many times does an

487
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: old Donnie need to wriggle his way out for us

488
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 2: to learn a different lesson? In terms of what people

489
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,479
Speaker 2: actually see when they see this man, It's almost certainly

490
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: not what most people will commentate on this for a

491
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 2: living as I.

492
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: Just think that analysis is very twenty sixteen, Yeah, when

493
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: he has been consistently losing since then, and so two

494
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 1: things are different. I mean, the major thing that's different

495
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: is that he himself is trying for a different coalition

496
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: than he was in twenty sixteen. In twenty sixteen, it

497
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 1: was all about let me just juice the numbers with

498
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: the white working class, and obviously in key swing states

499
00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 1: that was enough. This time, they have seen erosion with

500
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: white voters, especially white college educated voters. So to try

501
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: to make up for that, it's about going after you know,

502
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: these less frequent black and brown younger men in particular,

503
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: and so you know, it's not the same group that

504
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 1: you're going after. And I think the campaign realizes that

505
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 1: there may be more sensitivity around some of these comments

506
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: with their aspired to voting coalition than there was in

507
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: the past. So, for example, the Trump campaign distanced themselves

508
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 1: from the Tony Hinchcliff joke about Puerto Rico being an

509
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: island of trash. Every single Republican I think in Florida immediately,

510
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, all these different Republican members of

511
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 1: Congress in Florida came out and condemned the comments. The

512
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: head of the Republican Party in Puerto Rico condemned the comments.

513
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: So you know, it's not just like me, some lefty

514
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 1: liberal commentator saying it. The Trump campaign clearly sees it

515
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: as an issue as well.

516
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 2: Yeah maybe, I mean, frankly, I think that's kind of

517
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: a stupid strategy. First of all, because it was literally

518
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 2: at your rally, so there's.

519
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 3: No disowning it. Number one.

520
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 2: But number two is again like, if we really believe

521
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: this theory of black and Latino voters, it's just incorrect.

522
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 2: If it's going to push you over the finish line,

523
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 2: Like we're this tiny slice of the electorate. It's maybe

524
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 2: eight percent in the swing states, especially in the wider

525
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: states across the blue wall white voters is the whole ballgame. Ironically,

526
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 2: there are a lot of like, very racist commentators who

527
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 2: often throw this at Trump because they're like, hey, man,

528
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: why are you've chasing the black vote? Whites are the

529
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 2: only ones who actually matter for you, and look, you know,

530
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: weird horseshoe theory. I kind of agree with them, just

531
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 2: on a statistical basis that their whole like you know,

532
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 2: what was it First Step Act and all this, it

533
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 2: hasn't really done anything in terms of pushing people to

534
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: come out and vote for Trump predominantly.

535
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: I just read a study yesterday.

536
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 2: A big part of the reason that the Latino shift

537
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 2: has happened amongst Latino men's specific is based on literally

538
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 2: Latin x verbiage and on an aversion to cultural liberalism

539
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 2: that has nothing to do with Trump or even like

540
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,239
Speaker 2: a Puerto Rico comment or whatever. It has to do

541
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: much more with like cultural conservatism deep at heart. And also, frankly,

542
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: a lot of these people are more working class and

543
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 2: are not college educated and thus have a very different

544
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: like cultural more that they swim in as opposed to

545
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 2: everybody else. So that seems to be, you know, the

546
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 2: only reason it's happened, I guess is a long way

547
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: of saying is I don't think the Puerto Rico joke

548
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 2: is gonna matter that much.

549
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: I really don't.

550
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: I mean again, like if if somebody makes a joke

551
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 2: about where you're from and that's literally enough for you

552
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: to come out and vote for somebody.

553
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 3: Else, to me, that seems insane.

554
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 2: But I mean, maybe you know all the Puerto Ricans

555
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: this country thing differently than me.

556
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 3: I don't know.

557
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,199
Speaker 2: I'd like to think I'm more like everybody else. It

558
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: just seems to me that the reason why they would

559
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: come out to vote is number one of this long standing,

560
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: like years long aversion to cultural liberalism.

561
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 3: As they said in.

562
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: That I think as an NBER study, we can maybe

563
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 2: talk about it next week.

564
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 3: But that's that's.

565
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: What the driver just seems to be behind a lot

566
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 2: of this black and Latino movement. But at the end

567
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 2: of the day, you know, the ballgame is still white

568
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 2: working class voters, because all he needs to do, with believe,

569
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 2: is turn out at twenty sixteen levels or slightly above

570
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: from twenty twenty, and he could still win with no

571
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: more increase in the black or the Latino vote.

572
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and when a race is really really close,

573
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: like If it's as close in the Swing States as

574
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 1: it was last time, then you could look at any

575
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: one community and say a little bit of a erosion year,

576
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,479
Speaker 1: a little bit of erosion there is what made the difference.

577
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: I mean, PENNSYL Vnue what they're like half a million

578
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: people who are of Puerto Rican descent, and I have

579
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: no special insights into that community, but I do know

580
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: that it's been reported.

581
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 4: Like you know, Spanish language talk radio is all over it.

582
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: Bad Bunny has apparently moved elections in the past, and

583
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: he is all over like every basically Puerto Rican star

584
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: is all over it. People are calling into radio stations

585
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: locally in Philly and saying, I was thinking about Trump,

586
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: but there's no way I'm going to vote for that man. So,

587
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: you know, can it make some difference on the margins?

588
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: I think it's possible. I think it's possible. I don't

589
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: want to oversell it, right, I don't want to say, leoh,

590
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: this is the ballgame.

591
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 4: It's over for him.

592
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: But when you tie that into not just the specific

593
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: impact on like you know, Puerto Ricans, but how it

594
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: feeds into the Harris messaging about how this person is,

595
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: what does she say, she says like unhinged, unstable, and

596
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: the messaging about you know, him being a danger and

597
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: just someone you really don't want a position of power.

598
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: He gave them ammunition in the final week, and I

599
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: think it's pretty clear from his campaign's reaction that they

600
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: think it could be a problem for him. I just

601
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 1: know if I was looking at, you know, how the

602
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: Democrats were closing and there was some equivalent you know,

603
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: scandal on the Democratic side, and all of their ad

604
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: dollars were going to, like, let me push out these

605
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 1: niche culture war issue ads that really only appealed to

606
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 1: the Democratic base, I would be like, this is you,

607
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: this is preposterous that you're closing this way. And so

608
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: now I don't think that the Trump campaign is closing. Well,

609
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean they're going to lose, but you know,

610
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: I don't think that they're putting their best forward, in

611
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 1: my foot forward, in my opinion, in this final week.

612
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 3: Let's go and.

613
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 4: Shift to the.

614
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: Bowl case for Kamala Harris, because we have talked about,

615
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: you know, yesterday we talked about the polls shifting towards Trump.

616
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 1: We showed you some of those indications that his campaign

617
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 1: feels very confident about where they're standing at this point.

618
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris will start with this.

619
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: She went on Club Shayshay, this is Shannon Sharp's program.

620
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: This was released yesterday, and you know it was a

621
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: very like friendly.

622
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: It was all.

623
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: It was as all these podcast interviews have been. It

624
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: was again makes me deeply depressed about the media landscape

625
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: in which we exist. But in any case, let's take

626
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: a listen to a little bit of how that went.

627
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: Well.

628
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 9: So I'm really glad you brought that up, Shannon. So

629
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 9: first of all, let's clear up certain myths. Okay, you

630
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 9: know those checks that went out.

631
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 5: Yes, those Skimmy's right, stimulus check?

632
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:12,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, well, right, we gotta be stimulus. But

633
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 3: they called him stimmy. It's okay.

634
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 9: The reason those came about is because there was a

635
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 9: Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in Congress, people

636
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 9: like Maxine Waters, people like Hakeem Jeffries right, yes, who

637
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 9: did the work of pushing to say people need help

638
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 9: right now and we need to send out checks. There

639
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 9: was a whole lot of opposition to it, including from

640
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 9: Donald Trump's White House.

641
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: Yes, even him, I think he was Yes.

642
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 9: That's why those checks.

643
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 4: Remember Congress holds the purse.

644
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 9: Yes, so really Congress wrote those checks. But then Donald Trump,

645
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 9: unlike any president before after, decided he put his name

646
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 9: on those checks.

647
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: So therefore people thought.

648
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 9: So people thought, Donald Trump, they gave me that check.

649
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: So similar messaging has been coming from Barack Obama when

650
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: he's been on the trail about like, oh, Trump's taking

651
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: credit for the economy being good. When he came in,

652
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 1: that was me. I'm the one who built that economy.

653
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: So her trying to you know, close the gap again

654
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: with Trump on the economic issues, and obviously on this podcast,

655
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: attempt to reach young men, young black men in particular,

656
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: and sort of you know, humanize herself with that group.

657
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 3: I guess.

658
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: I mean, if you listen to it that by the way,

659
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 2: that was like thirty minutes into the convent, maybe twenty

660
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: five minutes. I believe the rest of the time was

661
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: about music or whatever, and man, we need to fundraise.

662
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 2: If you know, there was how many ad breaks were there?

663
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: I counted nine. I could be wrong while I was

664
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,959
Speaker 2: listening to it. So Shannon, buy yourself a new sup bro.

665
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 2: Contact me, let me know I can help you out

666
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 2: in terms of in terms of the actual content.

667
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: I don't know. It seemed to deeply cringe worthy to me.

668
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: As you said, it's been fitting with this politic this

669
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: U the podcast Election.

670
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 4: Podcast, Election sucks basically a lot of fans.

671
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just bullshit, is the best way I

672
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: could describe. He even opened the interview, He's like, and

673
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,239
Speaker 2: we hope that you win. I was like, come on, bro, Like,

674
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 2: what are we doing here. It's not even a pretense

675
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: of a challenge on anything. Now, let's shift to the billcase,

676
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: because they obviously these you know, stimulus checks didn't matter

677
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: last time around. And let's think about where the signs

678
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: could be for Kamala Harris that most people are not

679
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: aware of right now, and in the early vote, there

680
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: are some signs that show that there's actually quite a

681
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: bit of strength. Let's put this up there on the screen.

682
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: This was really interesting. This was what you go amongst

683
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 2: forty eight, seven hundred and thirty two, like thos actually

684
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: a huge sample. And then if you actually dig into it,

685
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: what you start to look at is the swing from

686
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: fifty one percent for Kamala Harris and then forty seven

687
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 2: percent for Donald Trump that would crystal would be the

688
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: same four points that Biden effectively won the popular vote

689
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 2: by last time around, Yeah, which could be enough to

690
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 2: put him over the edge. And if you combine that

691
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 2: with some of the other early vote numbers that were

692
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: beginning to see it could be a sign of strength. Frame.

693
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, if we leave this up on the screen, you know,

694
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: this is a large enough stamp. This is the largest

695
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: survey of voters that we will get. Forty eight thousand

696
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: likely voters is a preposterously large number. The methodology here

697
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: is a little bit different. They do a pre and

698
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: post election interview. The data from that study they make

699
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: available to scholars. This is something that's done every year,

700
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: so this is a large scale survey of political attitudes.

701
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 1: They run it then through their own likely voter model

702
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: in order to come up with these numbers. So they

703
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: give a four point gap in favor of Kamala Harris.

704
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: That's the same amount that ipso's ABC poll that we

705
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: covered yesterday had in favor of Kamala Harris, and your

706
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: right to point out that's roughly the margin of victory

707
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: and the popular for Joe Biden as well.

708
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 4: Just keep this up for another second.

709
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: You know a couple things that jump out here, The

710
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: gender gap, they have Kamala Harris actually winning men forty

711
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: nine eight, very different than other surveys that we've seen.

712
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: You know, that could indicate they're picking up something that

713
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: other surveys aren't. They could indicate that their survey is wrong.

714
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: They have Kamala Harris with a significant gap with women

715
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: fifty three forty two, so that's noteworthy. They show her

716
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: per performing basically the way Biden did among young voters

717
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: eighteen to thirty nine. She wins them fifty nine to

718
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: thirty seven. If you look at the rural urban suburban split,

719
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: they have her dominating the urban category, winning the suburban category,

720
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: which I believe Trump has won in the past, and

721
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: then obviously losing bad in the rurals to Donald Trump.

722
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: So that's the data that they show here, and so

723
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: we can ask the question, Okay, well, how has this

724
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: survey done in the past, since this is something that

725
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: they do every time. Last time in twenty twenty, they

726
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: actually precisely nailed Biden's nationwide percentage, so they got exactly

727
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: right what percent of the popular vote he would get. However,

728
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 1: they did underestimate Trump by four so you know, they

729
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: they got Biden's number right, But they underestimated Trump, so

730
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: that's you know, worth noting they found Trump losing to

731
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 1: Biden fifty one to forty three. The twenty sixteen survey

732
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: apparently underestimated both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, with Clinton

733
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: taking forty three percent Trump taking thirty nine percent in

734
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: their pre election survey. They would go on to win

735
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: forty eight percent and forty six percent respectively. Of course,

736
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: we remember Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two

737
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: percentage points but lost in the electoral college, so they

738
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: had the the margin was pretty close, and they had

739
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton getting more of the popular vote, but in

740
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: the end, you know, they actually underestimated both of those candidates.

741
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 4: So take that for what it's worth.

742
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 1: But the fact that it's such a large sample makes

743
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 1: people take this particular survey relatively seriously.

744
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, that's why it mattered. Let's go to the

745
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 2: next one. This was one that we wanted to highlight,

746
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,720
Speaker 2: and actually we mentioned it a little bit with Logan,

747
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 2: but it's still very important to dig into and look

748
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 2: particularly at that Nebraska number. So what they have is

749
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 2: that in Nebraska, Dan Osborne of course in a tight

750
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: race there, but more important Dan, Yeah, I mean, I'm

751
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: rooting for a shock. What they have most importantly within

752
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 2: this is that they have Kamala up by what some

753
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: twelve points or so in that special district. Now, the

754
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 2: reason why that matters is that that special district is

755
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: Nebraska not only has its own electoral college vote, which

756
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 2: is what would put her at two seventy two sixty

757
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: eight if Trump does win Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, but

758
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: that Omaha suburb and white college educated vote was one

759
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: that Biden only won by seven or eight last time around.

760
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 3: So it actually shows.

761
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,879
Speaker 2: An overperformance amongst white college educated voters, which last time

762
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 2: was a big precursor for what the twenty twenty vote

763
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: ended up looking like in the suburban vote shift. So

764
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 2: what would see is that not only would you have

765
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: Kamala doing as well as Biden last time around with

766
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: white college educated voters, but even better. Now can we

767
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 2: transpose that to the swing states? I mean, you know,

768
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: not entirely, but it is an indicator of strength with

769
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 2: that core demographic group and one that if it were

770
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: to bear out on election day, would be enough to

771
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 2: put her over the edge.

772
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if Kamala actually won this district that

773
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: Biden won by six if she wins it by twelve,

774
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: that is not consistent with her losing yea, you know,

775
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: I mean because it would certainly extrapolate out to you know,

776
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: Midwestern states or Midwestern college educative voters or whatever like.

777
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: If she is winning these type of districts by a

778
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: significant amount more than Biden was winning these districts, that

779
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 1: would be very indicative. It's one survey. Take it with

780
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: grains of salt, blah blah blah. But one of the

781
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 1: things that we've been noting is that there have been

782
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: a few surveys like this, a few polls that have

783
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: found that when you drill down to to the congressional

784
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: district level, as this poll does, or to the county

785
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: wide level, the more granular you go, the better. It

786
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: seems like the numbers are for Kamala Harris. So we

787
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: can put this one up on the screen. This is

788
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: from USA today. So they found in Wisconsin a deadlocked race.

789
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: Trump actually with a one point lead forty eight to

790
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: forty seven in the state overall. However, when you drill

791
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: down into Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bell

792
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: weather for the state, meaning whichever way this county goes,

793
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 1: the state tends to go.

794
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris has an edge.

795
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 1: She leads Trump in that area fifty to forty seven,

796
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 1: and that is larger than what Biden won that district by.

797
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 1: He won that county by one and a half percentage points,

798
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 1: again margin of vera one survey. The overall top line

799
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: result not great for her, since it shows it tied

800
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 1: with Trump with a one point lead, But there have

801
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: been a number of these that have consistently found when

802
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: you look at the county level, when you look at

803
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: the congressional district level, it seems like she's doing better

804
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: than the statewide or the national polling would indicate.

805
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 4: There's another thing.

806
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 1: That is a positive sign for the Harris people, which

807
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: is that we can put this up on the screen.

808
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:17,720
Speaker 4: Some of the polls.

809
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 1: Now that you have people who have already voted, right,

810
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: who have already cast their ballots, some of the pollsters

811
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 1: have been breaking down, okay, among people who have already voted,

812
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: who are they voting for?

813
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 4: Who is leading?

814
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 1: And these have consistently found an almost preposterously high level

815
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: of support for Kamala Harris in the early vote, much

816
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: higher than you would expect given the partisan breakdown of

817
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 1: the data that we know from the early votes. So

818
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: in Arizona they have Kamala leading. This is according to

819
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,439
Speaker 1: Marriswing state polls among early voters fifty six forty four.

820
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: In Georgia they have her leading fifty five forty five.

821
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: In North Carolina they have her leading fifty five forty three.

822
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 1: This person opines, Yes, these are essentially stabs, not waited

823
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: to be representative of that population, but it is an

824
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: unmistakable pattern. In addition, we can put the next one

825
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is another USA Today poll.

826
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 1: They also looked at voters who had already cast their

827
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: ballots and asked, okay, well, who did you vote for

828
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 1: you person that has already voted early by mail or

829
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: early in person, and they found Kamala Harris leading by

830
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: a two to one margin among those early voters.

831
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 4: Sixty three thirty four.

832
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: They say that preference turns around among those who plan

833
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: to wait until election day to vote, with Trump ahead

834
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: fifty two thirty five. And I've seen other instances that

835
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: have also found very positive trends in favor of Kamala

836
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 1: Harris among early voters. Now, on the other hand, Sager,

837
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: you would expect Democrats to have an advantage in the

838
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: early vote because of habits that were established during COVID,

839
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: because you still have Donald Trump even to this day

840
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,439
Speaker 1: running around and in Elon Munk too, by the way,

841
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 1: casting doubt on mail in balloting. Republicans are buy and

842
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: large trying to show up to vote early in person.

843
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: That is their preferred method of early voting in the

844
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania. That's actually an onerous process. I was

845
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 1: reading yesterday. They don't have a normal like you just

846
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: show up and it's like election day and you just

847
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: go and cast your ballot and feed in the voting machin.

848
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: You have to go request an absence, see ballot, go home,

849
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: fill it out, come back. It's like very cumbersome and

850
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 1: it's stupid, right, and people are getting very frustrated with

851
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: that process. But in any case, so especially given the

852
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: way that things have trended historically recently, there have been

853
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: the voting patterns early have been kind of all over

854
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: the place. Makes it very difficult to read into what

855
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 1: these early numbers are indicative of. But like I said,

856
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: what they seem to indicate in terms of the hopeful

857
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 1: case is if you look at the partisan breakdown of

858
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,959
Speaker 1: who we know is voted early based on Target Smart

859
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 1: and other data analysts, and then you look at this

860
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: level of margin, it seems to indicate that some substantial

861
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 1: proportion of independence are also coming into the Democratic camp,

862
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: which is precisely what put them over the top in

863
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: so many places in twenty twenty two.

864
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so I was just looking this morning and

865
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 2: I saw a very good concise summary from Mark Caputo,

866
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 2: who's a reporter. He usually covers Florida, and he just says, look,

867
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 2: number one, Trump is doing well in sun Belt. It's

868
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 2: not enough. He needs one third of rust Belt states

869
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 2: to swing. So Harris has a bigger Roust Belt voter

870
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 2: pool to draw them, but they are not showing up

871
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: early in the way that she needs so far. If

872
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 2: they do, she wins three seven days ago. I thought

873
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 2: that was a very concise way of looking at it.

874
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 2: In terms of the numbers. The big question mark is

875
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:34,240
Speaker 2: about those similar early vote domination that happened last time around.

876
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 3: People are trying.

877
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: To say, oh, well, it's possible that that shows depressed

878
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: democratic turnout, but it just seems way more likely that

879
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 2: everybody is fundamentally different from four years ago from the

880
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 2: way that they vote part of why it is so

881
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 2: difficult to look at any of the patterns the other

882
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 2: in the independent category that you just flagged. Yeah, and

883
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 2: that's really important too, where the non identified and what

884
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 2: they vote for is really matters a lot. Now, if

885
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 2: that is true, that is an indicator of a twenty

886
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 2: twenty two style dynamic where our voter is super high turnout,

887
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: but the independence predominantly swing in one direction, which is

888
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 2: just enough to put you over the edge. So, I mean, look,

889
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 2: we wanted to make sure that you guys got a

890
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 2: very clear picture that there's a very real path for

891
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris victory.

892
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 3: The other thing, that's the key.

893
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: The other thing I would say that is the point

894
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 1: you've been making Soger, is that back in twenty sixteen,

895
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: some of the warning signs for Hillary Clinton was that

896
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: when you dug down into that district or county level data.

897
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, she was host things didn't look good. They

898
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:40,479
Speaker 4: didn't look good.

899
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 1: And so you had these sort of canary and the

900
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: coal mines of different congressional districts that were like, oh,

901
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: I don't know, that doesn't that doesn't look great.

902
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 4: But there was so much, you know, there was so.

903
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: Much assumption, so many assumptions about the inevitability of Hillary

904
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 1: Clinton that that was all sort of papered over until

905
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 1: after the fact when people looked back and said, you know,

906
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,879
Speaker 1: there were some warnings here, people just totally ignored them

907
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: this time. If anything, those warning signs are going in

908
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: the other direction. The congressional district and county level data

909
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: looks better for Kamala Harris, looks very poor for Donald Trump. Now,

910
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 1: these district level samples are can also be faulty. They

911
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: can also have a significant margin of error. But I

912
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: think after election day, if she overperforms, these are some

913
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: of the things that we will look back to and say, ah,

914
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: that was an indication of something that was going on

915
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: that pollsters were missing at the top line. The other

916
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 1: thing that I'll mention is, I don't know if you

917
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 1: saw this, but somebody wrote a post yesterday, like a

918
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 1: polster wrote out a post about how important the assumptions

919
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: that they make in waiting their likely voter models are

920
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 1: in terms of determining the ultimate result of the poll. So,

921
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: and this is something we talked to Logan about. It's

922
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: going to post for everybody on Friday. It's available now

923
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 1: for premium subscribers. But this idea that polsters were so

924
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 1: burned in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty that they're effectively

925
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: hedging their bets and potentially even subconsciously kind of putting

926
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 1: their finger, their you know, finger on the scales, I'm

927
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: on the scale of these polls to try to engineer

928
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: a result that's roughly fifty to fifty because that feels

929
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 1: comfortable for them, because they don't want to be the

930
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: outlier that becomes the you know, the what was a

931
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: Wisconsin by seventeen for Joe Biden pulled but got a

932
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 1: business preposterous? This was a preposterous result, like how dare you?

933
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: How can we ever trust anything? They don't want to

934
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: be in that situation. So if you have a bunch

935
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: of posters that all are all hurting around this like

936
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty race, then number one, you're not going

937
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: to get single down, and number two, the race is

938
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 1: likely to be within a few points of that, so

939
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 1: you're not going to get burned as having been wildly wrong.

940
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 1: So it's possible there's some of that going on and

941
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 1: that the electorate has changed postdobs in a way that

942
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: pollsters haven't aren't really reflecting and haven't really accounted for

943
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: the last thing I'll put up on the screen that

944
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: people are sharing is, let's say we've thought about, Okay,

945
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: if the polling miss is what it was in twenty sixteen,

946
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 1: or if the polling miss is what it was in

947
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, Donald Trump is going to win, that's where

948
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 1: we are.

949
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 4: But if the polling miss is.

950
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: What it was in twenty twenty two, that is a

951
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 1: very different picture. I can put this up on the

952
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 1: screen in that instance, so you can see in the

953
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 1: first column that's where the polls.

954
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 4: Are right now.

955
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: I think this is according to the New York Times.

956
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 1: So you've got Kamala plus one overall, plus one in Wisconsin,

957
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of states that are deadlocked, and then

958
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 1: Georgia and Arizona plus two for Trump. If the polls

959
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: missed like they did in twenty twenty two, Kamala wins

960
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: every state except Georgia, where the polls actually in twenty

961
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,240
Speaker 1: twenty two were accurate, which was different from the norm.

962
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:45,919
Speaker 1: So you know, it's possible that this is the world

963
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 1: that we're living in post next week election, where even

964
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: if they're off by just a couple points in these

965
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: swing states. If you have a miss, if they you know,

966
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: if they don't take account of the post roll electorate

967
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 1: in a way that they did in twenty twenty two

968
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 1: and they have a similar miss, that it's going to

969
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 1: end up being a very clear cut result in favor

970
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 1: of Kamala.

971
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 3: Harris, Yeah, that's right.

972
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 2: H can't help but look at that other category, right, Yeah, funny,

973
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 2: no doubt about whins every single swing stage. Yeah, and

974
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:14,800
Speaker 2: that blowout victory.

975
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 1: Honestly, either one of those scenarios I think nobody should

976
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: be surprised by.

977
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 4: Oh no, nobody should be surprised by.

978
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,319
Speaker 2: It's a weird thing to go into an election and

979
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,879
Speaker 2: not be surprised by any result. I guess the only

980
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 2: one that would truly shock me is a tie, like

981
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 2: a sixty nine two sixty nine.

982
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 3: Yeah. The other one that.

983
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 1: Especially because that would require this Nebraska district that we

984
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 1: just covered that seems to be going very clearly for Kamala,

985
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 1: that would require that to flip the Trump.

986
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 2: The only other one that would surprise me is is

987
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 2: not just a tie. Is Kamala wins the electoral college

988
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 2: loses the popular vote.

989
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 3: That would be genuinely shocked.

990
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 4: That would be fun, but that fun.

991
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: I am low key cheering for that one because I

992
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: do think that would be the end of the electoral college.

993
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 4: That I would I own cheering for the end of

994
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 4: the elect.

995
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 3: Have some interesting results. Yeah, it would end the electoral college.

996
00:46:57,840 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 2: The Republicans would almost certainly have to ditch the pro

997
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 2: life coalition if you ever want to win the popular vote.

998
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 3: So yea, it's certainly possible. Maybe I should cheer towards.

999
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 10: So.

1000
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: As we have mentioned multiple times, at this point, we

1001
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 1: are one week out from election day and things are

1002
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: starting to get very edgy, I guess, very a little

1003
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 1: bit ominous.

1004
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 4: We can put this up on the screen.

1005
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 1: We had a number of ballot drop boxes three different

1006
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 1: places in the state of Washington and also in the

1007
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 1: state of Oregon that were set on fire, according to

1008
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,879
Speaker 1: local authorities. In this particular video that you can see

1009
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:36,359
Speaker 1: here where the ballots are on fire, this was in

1010
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 1: Clark County at the Fisher's Landing Transit Center. They say

1011
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: that hundreds of ballots were inside at the time. The

1012
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: last pickup had been eleven am on Saturday. A Vancouver

1013
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 1: ballot box had also burned us in Washington in an

1014
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: arson Monday morning, authorities report with hundreds of ballots they're

1015
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: possibly damaged in a fire. They also think that that

1016
00:47:55,880 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: is connected to another arson incident in Portland, Oregon. You know,

1017
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 1: the police have put out an image of a car

1018
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: that they think, you know, that is a person of

1019
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: interest potentially in these arsons which they believe to be connected.

1020
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: You know, you might think, like Oregon and Washington, these

1021
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 1: are not swing states, what is going on here? But

1022
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 1: one of these areas actually is a swing district in

1023
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 1: terms of a congressional race. Marie Lousen camp Perez won

1024
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 1: this district very narrowly last time around. And of course

1025
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: even if it's not a swing state, people are voting

1026
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 1: on a variety of things. To have their ballots in

1027
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 1: the mail burned up is you know, is very troubling

1028
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: and also of course causes people to be concerned, Hey

1029
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: did my ballot make it in? Was it in that box?

1030
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 1: Is my vote going to actually count here? So this

1031
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: is this is troubling.

1032
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 2: And say, well, well, in uh An, Oregon specifically, it's

1033
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 2: all mail in voting, so that that's what people need.

1034
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 2: Unders that's right, Yeah, about they don't even do in

1035
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 2: person voting. Everything is mailing kind of interesting. They have

1036
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 2: a very high voter participation, but that's a secondary conversation

1037
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 2: for the people who are anti mail in voting. The

1038
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 2: key that you also mentioned is that this is the

1039
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 2: how do you say her name is a Gluesen comonlu

1040
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 2: Camp Gluesen Camp, Perez and Joe Kent, which was a

1041
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 2: complete nail bier last time.

1042
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 4: What was a few thousand votes?

1043
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 2: Maybe barely anything? Yeah, Ken, just a lot of people

1044
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 2: might know him. He's like a maga guy.

1045
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 3: Oh that podcast. It was a former Green Beret. I forget.

1046
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 3: He's an interesting guy. I'll put it that way.

1047
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 2: My point though, is that he would became a big

1048
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 2: celebrity online that in twenty twenty two swing vote against him,

1049
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,279
Speaker 2: A lot of people watching that for potential signs of

1050
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 2: where things could go. Interestingly enough, it remains a toss

1051
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 2: up in the polls today. Last time around, Kent actually

1052
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: appeared to have a major advantage and it was a shock.

1053
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 2: So it's a big question mark two about the reliability

1054
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 2: of polls. And obviously that would be one of those

1055
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: districts that could be precursor where if she does win reelection,

1056
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 2: that could be one that we could look to and

1057
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 2: be like, oh, that's you know, similar to the twenty

1058
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 2: twenty two D wave that ended up materializing or at

1059
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 2: least blunting the red wave. Whereas if he wins, and

1060
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 2: he wins handily, that would indicate like a Trump vote.

1061
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, potentially.

1062
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 1: So in any case, it's something we have an eye on,

1063
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 1: and you know, obviously troubling series of events, we wanted

1064
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 1: to take some time and teasing this for a while

1065
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: to lay out what is likely to happen in the

1066
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 1: event which obviously far from certain, in the event that

1067
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 1: Donald Trump loses, what will stop the steal two point.

1068
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 4: Zero look like?

1069
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 1: And as Saga is rightly pointed out here, there are

1070
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 1: a few things that are positive that have happened since

1071
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:32,760
Speaker 1: January sixth. You had in a legislation that was passed

1072
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: that was meant to prevent the sequence of events that

1073
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 1: occurred last time, where there were big question marks about

1074
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: what Mike Pence's role as the vice president is in

1075
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 1: certifying the results and whether or not the state legislators

1076
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: just have like cart blanche to pick whatever the hell's

1077
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: later electors they want to pick. There was legislation that

1078
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: was passed that sought to provide clarity to avoid that

1079
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: same sequence of events. So that's positive. And then the

1080
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 1: other thing is just that Donald Trump is not in

1081
00:50:57,840 --> 00:50:59,240
Speaker 1: charge of the federal government right now.

1082
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 4: So we has tools at his disposal.

1083
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean that he's not going to try

1084
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 1: some stuff, and that doesn't mean that he isn't already

1085
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: laying the groundwork to contest the results in the event

1086
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,280
Speaker 1: that he does actually lose.

1087
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 4: We've heard this in a lot of his rhetoric.

1088
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 1: We also hear it from Elon Musk, both at his

1089
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 1: town halls and also on his own platform of Twitter.

1090
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: You hear it from all sorts of Republicans. Republicans are

1091
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:26,759
Speaker 1: starting to get asked. I saw Jim Jordan was just

1092
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 1: asked whether or not he would urge Donald Trump to

1093
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: accept the results of the election.

1094
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 4: He refused to say so.

1095
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: Just as a reminder of that, here is a little

1096
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 1: taste of how Donald Trump is talking about the election

1097
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 1: when he's asked whether or not he will accept the

1098
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 1: results either way?

1099
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 4: Will you accept the results about the action?

1100
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, sure, if it's a fair election, always I would

1101
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 10: always accept it. I consays to be a fair election.

1102
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 10: We're leading in all the balls and then we're leading

1103
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 10: in every swing state. Real well, it's now I think so.

1104
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 10: In fact, they just had an RCP said you're a

1105
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 10: ninety three point three terms of winning. As that's pretty good.

1106
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 1: So one of the key things he says there's soccer

1107
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 1: that we've talked about, is he says I have a

1108
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: ninety three point two percent chance of winning. And part

1109
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 1: of the MAGA approach right now led by the Trump

1110
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 1: campaign is to protect total and complete confidence that there

1111
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: is no way that they can lose this race. Now,

1112
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 1: on the one hand, that may just be like there,

1113
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: you know, that's a very Donald Trump kind of thing

1114
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 1: to do, like, of course I'm.

1115
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 4: Going to win, I'm a winner, blah blah.

1116
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 1: Blah, But it also helps to lay the groundwork for

1117
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: if he were to lose this say I had a

1118
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 1: ninety three percent chance of winning, like there's no way

1119
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 1: that I could have possibly lost, And then you pair

1120
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 1: that with I don't know if you just saw he

1121
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 1: just put out a true social in this, again consistent

1122
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: with other things that he's been doing where he's already

1123
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: claiming that there's fraud in Pennsylvania that could be determinative

1124
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:54,879
Speaker 1: referring to a ballot registration issue in Lancaster County, which

1125
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 1: is interesting in and of itself and could be actually

1126
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: from the Republican side of the aisle, but using that

1127
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 1: in incident to already call into question the legitimacy of

1128
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 1: the Pennsylvania elections, he's.

1129
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: Going to declare that a one no matter what. So

1130
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 2: if the question is really like if he actually does

1131
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 2: win or not. The interesting part, too, is on the

1132
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 2: legal stuff. As you mentioned, can we please put C

1133
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 2: three up there on the screen. From all of my reading,

1134
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 2: a lot of it is going to focus here. This

1135
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 2: is a Wall Street Journal article which is actually very important.

1136
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 2: It's called, quote the Secret of Billionaire network funding, Stop

1137
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,959
Speaker 2: the Steal two point zero one hundred and forty million dollars,

1138
00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: nearly fifty groups working on quote election integrity and another

1139
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 2: crusade of hours. And what it focuses on specifically are

1140
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 2: quote training an army of volunteers to monitor voting on

1141
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 2: election day two hundred thousand dollars, poll watchers, poll workers,

1142
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 2: legal experts recruited by the RNC. One group is essentially

1143
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: Facebook for election fraud, allowing users to post, comment, and

1144
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 2: share anything that they deem to be quote election regularities,

1145
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,839
Speaker 2: filing incident reports with US are then followed up by

1146
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:59,359
Speaker 2: lawyers and the legal team they focus specifically on this

1147
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 2: is what is it the Center for Election Innovation and Research,

1148
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: and they talk about some of the quote unquote like

1149
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 2: different things that they are looking out for, but the

1150
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 2: actual legal maneuverability inside of this. Specifically, because of the

1151
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 2: passage of the Electoral count Act, has significantly going to

1152
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 2: change the way that both certification works at the congressional

1153
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 2: level and at the state level. I believe that what

1154
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 2: this will look like is it's going to push the

1155
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 2: certification fight down and that is based on this article

1156
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:34,399
Speaker 2: and when we're about to talk to Because previously certification

1157
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: was both at the state legislature level without gubernatorial approval

1158
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 2: and then being sent to the so called slate to Congress,

1159
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 2: it was kind of elevated up Now certification fights are

1160
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 2: going to happen more at the county level and specifically

1161
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: local officials, people who have been elected to whatever where

1162
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 2: you have seen the so called Election Integrity Network has

1163
00:54:56,920 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 2: a lot of people, specifically more redder areas that have

1164
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:03,399
Speaker 2: put themselves on those and that is where you could

1165
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 2: see the alternate slate push come from. But yeah, there

1166
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 2: is a change fundamentally from the way that things worked

1167
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty, back in the twenty twenty election,

1168
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 2: and it's going to be a lot less I would

1169
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: say institutional. The other thing is is that even with

1170
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 2: this army of lawyers and I can't keep getting away

1171
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 2: from this. Look at Rudy at Giuliani, he is literally bankrupt.

1172
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 2: And if you look at all of the who is

1173
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 2: it Jenna Ellis, if Sidney Powell was che cheeseborough, I

1174
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,879
Speaker 2: forget how to put whatever his name is, all pled

1175
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 2: guilty and Georgia, all of them are out hundreds.

1176
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:40,879
Speaker 3: Of thousands of dollars in legal fees.

1177
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:42,919
Speaker 2: Trump's the only guy not out any money on legal

1178
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 2: fees because what is it Super America pack or whatever?

1179
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:48,839
Speaker 2: Are the people who paid for it, so, you know,

1180
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 2: and that's your hard earned money. You can do what

1181
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 2: you want with it to donate. The point I think

1182
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 2: just comes back to what stopped. Still two point zero

1183
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 2: is going to look like is much more local this

1184
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 2: time around. Lots of fight to the county level for certification,

1185
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 2: potentially fights around the Secretary of State for certification as well,

1186
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 2: although a lot of that has changed because the Electoral

1187
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: Count Act.

1188
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let me do a couple things and just

1189
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: bear with me for a moment. So, on the one

1190
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 1: side of the ledger, in terms of positive sort of bulwarks,

1191
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 1: you have number one, Trump isn't president and number two

1192
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 1: the Electoral Count Act, and those are significant. On the

1193
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 1: other side of the ledger, you have a more premeditated,

1194
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:31,440
Speaker 1: more organized plan in advance than you did before, as

1195
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 1: evidenced by the secretive network of billionaires who have been

1196
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 1: already they're already filing lawsuits. They were upset that Trump

1197
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 1: was not more effective in contesting the election results last

1198
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,879
Speaker 1: time around, so they vowed that this time they would

1199
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 1: have a plan and they would be ready, and it's

1200
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 1: extremely well funded, and it is well organized, and they've

1201
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: already filed a bunch of these lawsuits. In addition, I

1202
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to see the same level of

1203
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 1: Republican elected Republican resistance to Trump fraudulently claiming that he

1204
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 1: won the election, because they've seen how this went before,

1205
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 1: and people who were you know, who really resisted. First

1206
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: of all, they were ousted in Republican primaries. They see

1207
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 1: where the Republican bases at this point where they're overwhelmingly

1208
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,439
Speaker 1: believe that Joe Biden lost, that Donald Trump won, They're

1209
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly primed to believe once again that Donald Trump is

1210
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:30,840
Speaker 1: inevitable and there is no way that he could possibly lose.

1211
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 1: And they see the way that that position has in

1212
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: most instances, not all, but in most instances been rewarded

1213
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 1: within the party.

1214
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 4: So let's put this up on the screen.

1215
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 1: From Politico, they chart kind of a worst case scenario

1216
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 1: for how this could all go down. They say, the

1217
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: very real scenario where Trump loses and takes power. Anyway, now,

1218
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:51,880
Speaker 1: as you go through these steps, and I Am going

1219
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 1: to take the time to go through these steps just

1220
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 1: so you guys can see how.

1221
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 4: This might all play out.

1222
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: But it is very tenuous, like it would require a

1223
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: lot happen, and it's a very like narrow That's why.

1224
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 3: They say out and I'm like, come on, but I mean,

1225
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 3: I think it's worth policy.

1226
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 1: You have to, like, you know, plan for Okay, what's

1227
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: the worst case scenario. I think that would be a

1228
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 1: better case scenario.

1229
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 4: It is probably a.

1230
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 1: Better way to freda But in any case, I think

1231
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 1: it's good that they went through and lay this out.

1232
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 1: It was at least helpful for me to think about it.

1233
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 1: So they have bullet points here that I'll just go

1234
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 1: through so you could see the sequence of events that

1235
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 1: would have to happen. Number one is already happening. He

1236
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 1: will deepen distrust the election results, making unsupported or hyperbolic

1237
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 1: claims of widespread voter fraud, mounting long shot losses, challenging

1238
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 1: enough ballots to flip the income in key states. That

1239
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 1: plan is already being executed on, even in advance of

1240
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 1: election day. Next, he will lean on friendly county and

1241
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 1: state officials to resist certifying election results, a futile errand

1242
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 1: they say that would nevertheless fuel a campaign to put

1243
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 1: pressure on elected Republican legislators in state houses and Congress.

1244
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:00,919
Speaker 1: So in a number of the battleground states, you have

1245
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 1: legislatures that are Republican controlled, even as in many of

1246
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: these same states you have governors who are either like

1247
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp, a Republican but already has a pretty established

1248
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 1: track record of standing up to Trump on his bullshit.

1249
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 4: Or they're Democrats.

1250
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 1: So you could end up with a situation where the

1251
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 1: state legislatures send the fraudulent Trump slate of electors to Congress,

1252
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: and the governor sends the legitimate actual electors for Kamala

1253
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 1: Harris in that state. This is of course, in the

1254
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 1: event that Trump were to in reality lose.

1255
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 4: That sends it to Congress.

1256
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 1: Now this is where the Electoral Account Act comes into play,

1257
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 1: because it should. The language of the law makes it

1258
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 1: such that it should be an open and closed case

1259
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 1: that Kamala Harris actually as Vice President, presides over the

1260
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 1: certification at the Senate level. They say this is just

1261
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 1: a ceremonial position. They also say that the state legislators

1262
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 1: aren't the ones who get to determine who are the

1263
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 1: legitimate electors from the state. So you would think that

1264
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 1: would be open and shut, and perhaps it is. However,

1265
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 1: John Eastman, who was key in crafting the previous you know,

1266
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 1: fake elector's legal strategy last time around, he contests that

1267
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 1: the Electoral Count Act is constitutional and that has not

1268
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,560
Speaker 1: been determined yet. He believes that based on the language

1269
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:22,960
Speaker 1: of the Constitution. I don't think that there are a

1270
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 1: lot of people that agree with him, but he thinks

1271
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 1: this is still the case that.

1272
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 4: The state legislatures.

1273
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:31,280
Speaker 1: Still hold all the power and that even with this

1274
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 1: legislation because he sees it as unconstitutional. He doesn't think

1275
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:39,560
Speaker 1: the legislation changes anything whatsoever. Mike Johnson, who is of

1276
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 1: course currently Speaker of the House and would you know,

1277
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 1: potentially continue to be Speaker of the House if Republicans

1278
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 1: are able to hold onto the House. He has not

1279
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 1: said how he would handle such a scenario. So if

1280
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:55,840
Speaker 1: you have, you know, either congressional foot dragging, or if

1281
01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 1: it ends up going to the Supreme Court and they're

1282
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 1: able to keep Kama Harris from getting to two hundred

1283
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 1: and seventy Electoral College votes, then it's a contest contingent election.

1284
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:10,640
Speaker 1: It goes to the House houses run by Republicans. Donald

1285
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 1: Trump elected president. So the most tenuous part of this.

1286
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 1: A lot of these pieces are like, yeah, I could

1287
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: totally see that happening. The most tenuous part of it

1288
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 1: is the John Eastpi constitutional theory, which to my knowledge

1289
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:27,680
Speaker 1: is not supported widely. And the Supreme Court obviously very conservative,

1290
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 1: many of the justices appointed by Donald Trump, but they

1291
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 1: have also ruled against Donald Trump, and the court's last

1292
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 1: time around did overwhelmingly rule against Donald Trump. Now, I

1293
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:38,919
Speaker 1: would prefer not to have to bet on that kind

1294
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 1: of a like, you know, last ditch effort to prohibit

1295
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 1: him from stealing the election. But I do feel like

1296
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:48,960
Speaker 1: there is enough of a track record in place there

1297
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 1: that we can feel like they probably are not going

1298
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 1: to go along with this, relatively like Kakamami legal theory

1299
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 1: of John Baseman.

1300
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 2: I will give you the case for that, which is

1301
01:01:58,040 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: that if let's say, in this scenario where that happened,

1302
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 2: then why would the Dems not nuke the court forever?

1303
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 2: Like if from that point forward, because also remember in

1304
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 2: this scenario, you would still have some sort of divided government.

1305
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:15,160
Speaker 2: You would probably have some insane situation where one chamber

1306
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 2: is democratic and they like refuse to I mean, we

1307
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 2: can go on this hypothetical forever in terms of refusing

1308
01:02:21,160 --> 01:02:24,480
Speaker 2: to swear people in and what that would all look like.

1309
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 2: But irl the reason why I doubt it the most

1310
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: is because all of it hinges on the Supreme Court.

1311
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:34,840
Speaker 2: The Roberts Court is extremely small sea conservative people misunderstand. Yes,

1312
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 2: that both means that the Dobbs thing and the presidential

1313
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 2: immunity stuff will go through, But fundamentally, what Roberts cares

1314
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:45,560
Speaker 2: about more than anything else is preventing court packing and

1315
01:02:45,640 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 2: preserving the quote unquote like institutional respect of the court.

1316
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 3: If they did this, it would be over.

1317
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 2: Basically, I mean we would be in full on Banana

1318
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 2: Republic territory. And I mean, could you blame anybody, Like,

1319
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 2: what would you say if that happened, if you're on

1320
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 2: the left and that and this scenario played out.

1321
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 3: Honestly, you would be an idiot not to say, all right,

1322
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 3: that's it, let's go. You know, the Supreme Court is yeah, exactly.

1323
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 2: But if you know, if somebody did at the left

1324
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:10,920
Speaker 2: of that, I'll be like, Okay, it's over, let's go.

1325
01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 2: You know, it's like it's on in terms of like

1326
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:16,360
Speaker 2: law fair and everything where things are right now this

1327
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 2: that would make it look like child's play. So this

1328
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 2: is why, you know, I know, I know it's caused

1329
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 2: some heartburn over on certain YouTube channels, but I have

1330
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 2: a lot of faith in the Electoral count Act and

1331
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 2: specifically in the way that the reform has now happened,

1332
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 2: specifically because of what even the institutional question marks were

1333
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 2: last time around, on top of all of the punishment

1334
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:43,400
Speaker 2: that you saw for all of those that participated last

1335
01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 2: time around. Like, if anything, if John Eastman and Sydney

1336
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 2: Powell were the best you could get last time around,

1337
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 2: and both of them are either under censure or have

1338
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 2: now been effectively bankrupt. Who do you think you're going

1339
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 2: to get this time to really co sign some of

1340
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 2: this stuff now? Lawsuits in Michigan court, Texas court and

1341
01:03:59,080 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 2: all that.

1342
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 3: I mean, is it annoying? Yeah for sure?

1343
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 2: But you know every was it sixty something suits, It

1344
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 2: all got struck down last time around, right December. I

1345
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 2: wanted twenty eighth. I could be wrong. We covered them

1346
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 2: all in and out last time. Yeah, I used to

1347
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 2: haven psyclopedic knowledge, but I think it was December twenty eighth.

1348
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 3: Every single court case was lost, you know. I mean

1349
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 3: you'll know quite soon.

1350
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,400
Speaker 1: Well, here's a couple of things that I would say.

1351
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: First of all, you know, I think we already see

1352
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:26,160
Speaker 1: who will support Trump in the new stop the Seal

1353
01:04:26,200 --> 01:04:27,360
Speaker 1: two point zero claims.

1354
01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:29,040
Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, his vice president.

1355
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 2: Second of all, he doesn't have this MS, he doesn't

1356
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:34,479
Speaker 2: have the same impact. He doesn't even certification doesn't even matter.

1357
01:04:34,680 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 2: First of all, he's not even the vice president. So

1358
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 2: if you want to object to the electors, like, okay,

1359
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 2: go for it.

1360
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 1: But what I'm saying is you're you're submitting that Trump

1361
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:44,880
Speaker 1: is going to be on an island this time and

1362
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 1: he's not going to have the you know, lawyers and

1363
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 1: institutional backing. That's not true, because we already see.

1364
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:52,520
Speaker 3: There's I'm saying, it's going to be very different than

1365
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:52,960
Speaker 3: last night.

1366
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: But hold on, it's not going to hold on a second,

1367
01:04:55,400 --> 01:04:57,360
Speaker 1: because we cover that Wall Street. We just showed that

1368
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal article where you actually have a more

1369
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 1: stout network of donors and lawyers in advance who are

1370
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 1: prepped and ready to go.

1371
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 4: So I don't think that that is true.

1372
01:05:08,800 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, the part about like

1373
01:05:10,800 --> 01:05:12,959
Speaker 1: it is better that we have the Electoral Account Act,

1374
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 1: and that definitely, you know, provides another tool in the

1375
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:19,040
Speaker 1: arsenal to try to prevent any sort of like effectively

1376
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 1: coup from occurring. Where I maybe differ with you, I

1377
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe we don't differ on this is that

1378
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 1: even if it doesn't get to the place of like

1379
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 1: Trump is actually going to steal the election, there is

1380
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 1: so much damage that can be done between here and there.

1381
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 1: So last time around, he didn't steal the election, but

1382
01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:41,760
Speaker 1: it still was really bad for the country and it

1383
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,720
Speaker 1: was really ugly and has created deep fissures that to

1384
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 1: this day have not healed and are not going to

1385
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 1: heal for a very long time. The possible, you know,

1386
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 1: the possibility of more political violence, I think, really, you know,

1387
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 1: looms quite large and significant, especially if you see you know,

1388
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:00,080
Speaker 1: we're already seeing we don't know who did it, and

1389
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 1: I don't want to place blame on any particular partisan camp,

1390
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 1: but you know, we already see ballot box being blown

1391
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 1: up in advance of election day using incendiary devices. So

1392
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 1: that's why I don't want to downplay even if I

1393
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:16,520
Speaker 1: do think it's more difficult for him this time around

1394
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:19,480
Speaker 1: to have a plausible path to actually steal the election.

1395
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,920
Speaker 1: I don't want to downplay that, even just going through

1396
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 1: these steps of like we're gonna say it's rigged, we're

1397
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:28,160
Speaker 1: going to claim it's fraudulent. Guess what, the Republicans, they're

1398
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 1: gonna believe it, and many more. I believe Republican elected

1399
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 1: officials are going to go along with it and accept

1400
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 1: it this time than they did last time around, because

1401
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 1: that's where all of the incentives for like conservative maga

1402
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:43,960
Speaker 1: world stardom lie. So I don't disagree with you that

1403
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 1: I think it's less likely this time that there's a

1404
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 1: plausible path where he, like you know, fraudulently in a coup,

1405
01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:54,200
Speaker 1: takes power, which also didn't happen last time either. But

1406
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 1: I think that there's still a lot of damage that

1407
01:06:56,880 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: can be done that is short of you know, actual

1408
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: banana republic whop.

1409
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I guess you know

1410
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:05,880
Speaker 2: what the response would be. The American people have spoken,

1411
01:07:05,960 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 2: who are Republicans, and this is what they like, they

1412
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 2: so they can rue you know, the consequences of it,

1413
01:07:11,280 --> 01:07:12,880
Speaker 2: and that's just the country we live in.

1414
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 3: I don't know what.

1415
01:07:13,360 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 2: I don't think that there is anything to be done

1416
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 2: about it outside of Donald Trump literally being a different

1417
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 2: human being and being rejected by the voters. And they

1418
01:07:20,840 --> 01:07:23,080
Speaker 2: have decided that not only do they like him, but

1419
01:07:23,120 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 2: they literally love him on the Republican side, and it's

1420
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:28,760
Speaker 2: up to the primary and we're at a situation where

1421
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 2: probably forty something percent or more people are going to

1422
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 2: vote for him and see it as legitimate. I wouldn't

1423
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:37,160
Speaker 2: say it's the best thing I've said before. I don't

1424
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 2: know how you really look at a guy like JD

1425
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:40,440
Speaker 2: next to Trump, and you're like, yeah, Trump is the

1426
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 2: person who he used to be president, but.

1427
01:07:42,600 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 3: I'm not the electorate.

1428
01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:45,840
Speaker 2: I don't really know what to say other than people

1429
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:50,640
Speaker 2: seem to not care as much people seem to believe it.

1430
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:53,960
Speaker 2: Does Trump have a responsibility certainly, you know, to try

1431
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 2: and tone down things, but he's not going to. So

1432
01:07:56,720 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 2: everything that you're worried about, I think is just simply,

1433
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:03,080
Speaker 2: I guess, baken to the overall political consensus and direction

1434
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:05,440
Speaker 2: of the country. I mean, one thing you should maybe

1435
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 2: hope for is that the more they go pack down

1436
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 2: that path, you'll have two successful elections where the American

1437
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 2: people would have rejected it wholesale and outright. And if anything,

1438
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 2: it will lead to even more democratic control and institutional

1439
01:08:19,120 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 2: backstops through the Electoral count Act, maybe even more so

1440
01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:25,400
Speaker 2: whatever they try last time around, on top of criminal

1441
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 2: charges if it goes down that way. So, because we

1442
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 2: can't say sit here and say that Trump did not

1443
01:08:30,120 --> 01:08:33,040
Speaker 2: pay a price for January sixth, right, it's probably the

1444
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:37,080
Speaker 2: biggest price that the Republicans have paid, maybe up next

1445
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 2: to Roe versus weigh. We can't say that those who

1446
01:08:40,240 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 2: participated walked away Scott free. I mean, look, literally look

1447
01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:46,680
Speaker 2: at Rudy Giuliani. I mean, Steve Bannon just came out

1448
01:08:46,720 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 2: of prison today, served time in a federal penitentiary. So

1449
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 2: it's not like these things have been cost lists to

1450
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:56,360
Speaker 2: Republicans or to Republican elites that they can just go

1451
01:08:56,439 --> 01:08:59,479
Speaker 2: along in a similar way as last time around. I mean,

1452
01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 2: there's I just think it's fundamentally different. Like if you're

1453
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,920
Speaker 2: going to vote to not certify the election, yeah, I

1454
01:09:03,920 --> 01:09:04,519
Speaker 2: think it's dumb.

1455
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:05,639
Speaker 3: But you know, on the.

1456
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:08,760
Speaker 2: Other case of it would be David Perdue ran a

1457
01:09:08,760 --> 01:09:11,760
Speaker 2: whole campaign against what's his name, Brian camp.

1458
01:09:11,560 --> 01:09:13,439
Speaker 3: Based on office feel and he lost. In the state

1459
01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:13,920
Speaker 3: of Georgia.

1460
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:19,320
Speaker 2: Tom Cotton voted emphatically for certification. He didn't pay any price.

1461
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:22,479
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty, I believe Marco Rubio voted to certify.

1462
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 2: He didn't pay any price. Trump, you know, endorsed all

1463
01:09:25,479 --> 01:09:28,720
Speaker 2: kinds of people who voted to certify the election, of

1464
01:09:28,760 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 2: all the people who even voted for impeachment. Some of

1465
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:34,559
Speaker 2: them lost, you know, on the Republican ground, but a

1466
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:38,439
Speaker 2: lot of them remain, like remain in office quite quiet

1467
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:41,040
Speaker 2: and still popular Republicans in their home state.

1468
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:43,600
Speaker 3: So you know, it's not necessarily like the total.

1469
01:09:43,520 --> 01:09:45,640
Speaker 2: Dividing line that people thought going into twenty twenty three,

1470
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:47,640
Speaker 2: I thought it would be, But these days there's a

1471
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 2: real electoral path for people who don't go along with this,

1472
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:52,479
Speaker 2: and they don't pay any price for it at the

1473
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:53,080
Speaker 2: ballot box.

1474
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 1: I don't think that that's necessarily true. I mean, I

1475
01:09:56,520 --> 01:09:59,759
Speaker 1: agree with your cases, Like Brian Camp is the clearest

1476
01:09:59,760 --> 01:10:02,880
Speaker 1: case right where you know truth. They're the famous phone call.

1477
01:10:02,960 --> 01:10:05,080
Speaker 1: Trump's like, find me the votes I need. He's like, no,

1478
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:08,840
Speaker 1: they go to war basically, and now because they need him,

1479
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:09,880
Speaker 1: because they want to win the.

1480
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 4: State of Georgia.

1481
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:13,640
Speaker 1: They've had to effectively kiss and make up. On the

1482
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:16,800
Speaker 1: other hand, you know where the incentives are in like

1483
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 1: the mega influencer sphere which many of these but hold on,

1484
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:23,320
Speaker 1: which many of these elected officials, you know, basically traffic

1485
01:10:23,400 --> 01:10:27,800
Speaker 1: in the like maga influencer sphere, is to indulge all

1486
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 1: of the most deranged conspiracies about this. And you have

1487
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:32,960
Speaker 1: Elon Musk, who was the richest and one of the

1488
01:10:33,000 --> 01:10:36,160
Speaker 1: most powerful people in the world, who was already indulging

1489
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 1: in advance in pre election conspiracies about fraud et cetera.

1490
01:10:43,680 --> 01:10:46,880
Speaker 1: So you know, I personally think this has been much

1491
01:10:46,880 --> 01:10:50,479
Speaker 1: more normalized within the Republican Party than it was last

1492
01:10:50,479 --> 01:10:53,120
Speaker 1: time around, and you're going to see less resistance this.

1493
01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 4: Time than you did.

1494
01:10:54,280 --> 01:10:56,760
Speaker 1: You know, that's why even you know Mike Johnson, who

1495
01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 1: is Speaker of the House right now, he won't say

1496
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:03,519
Speaker 1: what he'll do. Jordan won't say what he'll do. So anyway,

1497
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 1: we're going to see how it's all going to play out.

1498
01:11:05,520 --> 01:11:09,200
Speaker 1: I just would say, like my whole goal in wanting

1499
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:11,960
Speaker 1: to lay this all out is just so people know

1500
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:14,960
Speaker 1: what to expect, right too, as much as best as

1501
01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:19,040
Speaker 1: we can lay out here's how things could unfold. Right

1502
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 1: if Trump loses, Here's how things could unfold. Here's the

1503
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:25,240
Speaker 1: playbook that they have ready to go, that they're already

1504
01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 1: planning to run, So that you're not caught off guard,

1505
01:11:28,800 --> 01:11:31,960
Speaker 1: so you know what to expect, so that perhaps it's less,

1506
01:11:32,080 --> 01:11:35,160
Speaker 1: you know, less unsettling. Perhaps it's just you know, by

1507
01:11:35,479 --> 01:11:38,960
Speaker 1: understanding what's going on, perhaps you are not yourself bamboozled

1508
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:43,719
Speaker 1: by the inevitable conspiracy theories and inevitable claiming of victory

1509
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:46,479
Speaker 1: no matter what happens on election day, so that you

1510
01:11:46,600 --> 01:11:49,320
Speaker 1: just are mentally prepared for like, Okay, here's the playbook

1511
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:52,400
Speaker 1: they're going to run, and here's you know, here's how

1512
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:54,719
Speaker 1: they're already laying out the groundwork for that, and here's

1513
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:56,680
Speaker 1: what to expect so that you don't get, you know,

1514
01:11:56,760 --> 01:11:57,559
Speaker 1: fooled by any of them.

1515
01:11:57,600 --> 01:11:58,320
Speaker 3: I think that's fair.

1516
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 2: That said, anybody who watched this segment and isn't immediately

1517
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 2: convinced and is willing to be like, well, what about

1518
01:12:04,120 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 2: you know, this one viral clip that I saw, Good

1519
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:07,559
Speaker 2: luck to you.

1520
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 3: It's probably not much that we can say to help you.

1521
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:13,280
Speaker 2: That's actually been my experience with most stop to steal people.

1522
01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:15,719
Speaker 2: There is basically nothing that you can tell these people

1523
01:12:15,760 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 2: that won't convince them. They are swimming in an island

1524
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:20,760
Speaker 2: of bullshit. And you know, I mean that's what you

1525
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 2: were talking about with mag influencers. If you pay the

1526
01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:25,840
Speaker 2: political price and they continue to want to go down

1527
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:28,400
Speaker 2: that rabbit hole, and they will just continue to sign

1528
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:31,120
Speaker 2: their own death warrants of irrelevance. So that's the free

1529
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 2: market at work. You know, that's democracy in action. I

1530
01:12:34,120 --> 01:12:36,400
Speaker 2: don't care, you know, if people want to Matt Gates

1531
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:38,639
Speaker 2: and all these other folks want to just continue doing

1532
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 2: this and they just continue losing like popular vote and

1533
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 2: the electoral college. In this scenario, if something like that happened,

1534
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:47,160
Speaker 2: one thing that we do know is that Trump does

1535
01:12:47,200 --> 01:12:49,760
Speaker 2: lose this election, then he likely well he said he

1536
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:50,479
Speaker 2: won't run again.

1537
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:51,880
Speaker 3: Well, what does that show you?

1538
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:54,440
Speaker 2: Then we're going to try and get an entire generation

1539
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:57,080
Speaker 2: of people without any of the charisma or the celebrity

1540
01:12:57,479 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 2: or the like, you know, plot armor of Donald Trump

1541
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:01,920
Speaker 2: who are trying to recreate. Well, I think we all

1542
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:05,760
Speaker 2: know how that works out, Madam Carey Lake. So I'm

1543
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:08,280
Speaker 2: not worried about it in terms of the political fix

1544
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:10,599
Speaker 2: outside of Yeah, do I think damage will be done

1545
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:13,120
Speaker 2: institutionally and trustwise, yes, certainly.

1546
01:13:13,160 --> 01:13:15,719
Speaker 3: But you know, at a certain point, that's what people want.

1547
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:17,000
Speaker 3: I don't know what else to say.

1548
01:13:17,120 --> 01:13:19,680
Speaker 2: Like, people like it, they believe it, they forgive it,

1549
01:13:19,720 --> 01:13:22,759
Speaker 2: they look past it, at least on the Republican side,

1550
01:13:22,840 --> 01:13:25,559
Speaker 2: and until they learn a different lesson, then that's just

1551
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:27,680
Speaker 2: simply the direction that people want to go down. You know,

1552
01:13:27,960 --> 01:13:30,040
Speaker 2: what can you say to people at a certain point,

1553
01:13:30,160 --> 01:13:32,320
Speaker 2: they don't want to listen anymore. That's been my experience

1554
01:13:32,320 --> 01:13:34,160
Speaker 2: and why I don't even try to talk to these

1555
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:38,080
Speaker 2: folks anymore. Just because you know, if you see some

1556
01:13:38,120 --> 01:13:40,080
Speaker 2: of the stuff they go down, you know, in terms

1557
01:13:40,160 --> 01:13:44,559
Speaker 2: of what they put dominion aside and the way that

1558
01:13:44,640 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 2: they can explain about every judge is corrupt and why

1559
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:49,040
Speaker 2: this happens, and.

1560
01:13:49,200 --> 01:13:51,800
Speaker 3: Well really the Hunter Biden.

1561
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:55,639
Speaker 2: Laptop actually, and it's like it's just it never ends

1562
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:56,720
Speaker 2: with them.

1563
01:13:56,840 --> 01:13:59,919
Speaker 3: So you know, we'll see with the prices, I guess.

1564
01:13:59,680 --> 01:14:02,640
Speaker 1: One, well note that, I'll, i'll, we can wrap this

1565
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 1: up and move to the next block. On is last election,

1566
01:14:06,680 --> 01:14:12,280
Speaker 1: Kyle was on Rogan's podcast that night and beforehand, before

1567
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:15,200
Speaker 1: the results came in, he laid out, like, you know,

1568
01:14:15,200 --> 01:14:17,760
Speaker 1: there's probably going to be the red mirage effect, where

1569
01:14:17,880 --> 01:14:19,759
Speaker 1: you know, the first ballots that come in from rural

1570
01:14:19,800 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 1: areas or in day of voting are likely to be

1571
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:24,720
Speaker 1: more Republican, and then as the night goes on, things

1572
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:29,600
Speaker 1: are likely to shift. And because he had laid that

1573
01:14:29,640 --> 01:14:32,360
Speaker 1: out in advance, when it all happened, then it didn't

1574
01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:34,640
Speaker 1: feel like fraud. It was like, oh, well, you know,

1575
01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:37,559
Speaker 1: this was predicted, like Kyle told me this was going

1576
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:39,599
Speaker 1: to happen, and this is what happened. So I'm not

1577
01:14:39,720 --> 01:14:43,280
Speaker 1: going to like really buy into or indulge these election conspiracies.

1578
01:14:43,680 --> 01:14:46,360
Speaker 1: And so there are people, you know, like Joe and

1579
01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:48,680
Speaker 1: like others out there who are trying to figure out

1580
01:14:48,720 --> 01:14:51,760
Speaker 1: what's going on who have some skepticism of institutions. But

1581
01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:54,120
Speaker 1: if you can tell them in advance, like no, here's

1582
01:14:54,160 --> 01:14:55,679
Speaker 1: and by the way, there is likely to be another

1583
01:14:55,680 --> 01:14:58,200
Speaker 1: red mirage effect at least in certain states this election.

1584
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:00,519
Speaker 1: But if you can anticipate like this is what it's

1585
01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:02,599
Speaker 1: going to look like, this is the arguments that they're

1586
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:04,240
Speaker 1: going to make, this is how it's all going to

1587
01:15:04,320 --> 01:15:07,400
Speaker 1: go down, then it can help to inoculate some people

1588
01:15:07,400 --> 01:15:10,680
Speaker 1: out there from falling into you know, you know, like

1589
01:15:10,800 --> 01:15:15,200
Speaker 1: an understandable mistrust of institutions can keep from leading them

1590
01:15:15,200 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 1: down the path of believing things that ultimately are not true.

1591
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:19,160
Speaker 3: I hope you're right.

1592
01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:19,760
Speaker 4: That's all I'm saying.

1593
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:21,280
Speaker 3: You have a lot more faith in people than I do.