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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen, twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Five, fifty and the kicks block the Comice Football World Study.

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Speaker 1: Good Bye, Oh my goodness, he's.

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Speaker 4: Stumble the bumble's the lateral turn tyer on the up

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Speaker 4: tu the lad.

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Speaker 2: A table off the field to night. It's not the

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Speaker 2: size of the dog in the fight, it's the size

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Speaker 2: of the fight in the roll. What's up? Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 2: Welcome the Action Network Podcast, the Weekend Betting Preview Special Edition.

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Speaker 2: I'll explain why in just a moment. I'm stucky and

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Speaker 2: with me, as always is Colin Wilson. What's going on? Colin?

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Speaker 2: Knee deep in U Bowl prep?

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Speaker 3: Yes, swimming through forty Bowl previews, but taking my head

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Speaker 3: out just a little bit so that I can throw

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Speaker 3: some money down on the governors.

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Speaker 2: The governors, Well, I believe you're referring to the key

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Speaker 2: and yeah. The reason I said this is a special

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Speaker 2: edition episode is because it's not your normal large Saturday slate.

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Speaker 2: There's obviously only one FBS game on Saturday. That's Army Navy,

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Speaker 2: which we will get to in depth. We also will

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Speaker 2: cover the FCS, as you alluded to with the governors.

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Speaker 2: We will get to all four FCS quarter final betting previews.

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Speaker 2: There's three games on Friday night, only one on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: which is odd to me, especially with two at the

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Speaker 2: same time on Friday night, and then that means what

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Speaker 2: I think maybe Saturday night is Saturday Night at the Heisman,

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Speaker 2: which is all but wrapped up. We'll get into all

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Speaker 2: of that. We'll also get into some updated thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the college football playoff market and where those lines stand

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Speaker 2: and what our thoughts are. We'll talk confidence pools, so

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be, you know, diving into those, and some

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Speaker 2: of you out there are as well, so we'll talk

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Speaker 2: who are top three most confident Pixar And it's not

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Speaker 2: as for me at least, it's not as easy as

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Speaker 2: going with the biggest favorites, but we'll get to that.

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Speaker 2: We'll also talk about maybe a total, a Bowl total

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Speaker 2: that we have on our radar, and for those that

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Speaker 2: don't know, we're gonna have a five part Bowl preview

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Speaker 2: on this podcast, so we're actually gonna five episodes that

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Speaker 2: cover the Bulls chronologically, so you know, we'll cover you know,

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Speaker 2: seven to eight bowls on an episode with you know,

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Speaker 2: for the bulls that are coming up over a four

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Speaker 2: or five day period, et cetera, et cetera throughout, and

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Speaker 2: then we'll obviously have an episode designated for the College

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Speaker 2: Football Playoffs semi finals, and then Colin and I will

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Speaker 2: be in Las Vegas at the Westgate for the College

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Speaker 2: Football National Championship. Speaking of the Westgate, we earlier caught

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Speaker 2: up with a friend of the podcast, an old friend

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Speaker 2: of the podcast, John Murray, my favorite book to watch

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Speaker 2: a game at, and we'll be there for the National Championships.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned. We caught up with him on just a

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Speaker 2: number of topics, you know. We talked about Army, Navy,

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Speaker 2: we talked even about some NFL stuff this weekend, the

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Speaker 2: college wall Playoff market, his principles on setting lines, and

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Speaker 2: it's it's a really solid interview. So let's get to

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Speaker 2: John right now. All right, So now we're joined with

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Speaker 2: a old friend of the podcast, John Mary from the

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Speaker 2: Super Book and Westgate out in Las Vegas. Welcome, thanks

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Speaker 2: for joining us.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 2: Guys, always a pleasure to have you on. We'll start

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Speaker 2: just very basic tell us about you know, early money

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Speaker 2: and subsequent line moves at your shop that you've seen

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Speaker 2: in the two college football playoffs semi final games.

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Speaker 4: You know, in the in the semi finals, these playoff games,

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Speaker 4: actually there is public money. I mean, you're right. In

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Speaker 4: general only sharps usually bet early, but on events there

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Speaker 4: are this high profile like these two college football player

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Speaker 4: off semi final games. The public's already winging on this game.

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Speaker 4: These games, everybody's on Clemson and everybody's on LSU. Not

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Speaker 4: a big surprise there. We'll needed two dogs pretty big

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Speaker 4: in these games.

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Speaker 2: Do you envis yourself ever getting to a flat fourteen?

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Speaker 2: And will anyone beside sharps bet the under in either

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Speaker 2: one of these games?

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Speaker 4: Everybody's been the under in the Peach Bowl here. Actually

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Speaker 4: we've been dealing it. We were dealing at an intentionally

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Speaker 4: high number. We actually like the over here. So in

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Speaker 4: the totals market, for the most part, at this point,

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Speaker 4: it's only arbitrage players guys just playing differences from our

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Speaker 4: book to another book. But in the side market, you're

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Speaker 4: getting a lot of public action on both of these games.

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Speaker 4: I think we'll get the fourteen. That's a good question.

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Speaker 4: And something we've already talked about.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna say no, I don't. Fourteen just seems so

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Speaker 4: high to me. I mean, our our power rating number

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Speaker 4: on this game was more like LSU eight and a

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Speaker 4: half or nine. I know the number got very inflated

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Speaker 4: because LSU demolished Georgia on Saturday, and again that all

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Speaker 4: of us at the book loved Georgia in that game.

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Speaker 4: By the way, that was a great call. Oklahoma really

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Speaker 4: Oklahoma really struggled. I thought they were very lucky to

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Speaker 4: beat Baylor. I think they've been lucky to win four

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Speaker 4: or five games in the last six weeks or so.

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Speaker 4: So Oklahoma kind of sputtering along LSU looks unbeatable. This

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Speaker 4: number is already, in my opinion, very inflated at thirteen.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it'll get all the way to fourteen.

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Speaker 2: You know, I like Oklahoma too at thirteen thirteen and

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Speaker 2: a half, but I'm waiting to see if a fourteen

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Speaker 2: of her pop So I imagine if you do ever

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Speaker 2: get to fourteen, it'll get hit immediately and come back down. Colin,

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Speaker 2: you want to ask a questions about the Ohio State

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Speaker 2: cleansing game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just gonna, I was gonna fallow up

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Speaker 3: and say, there have been a couple of fourteens that

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Speaker 3: showed in the market and those were scooped immediately flashed

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Speaker 3: in the New York minute, so you know, in the number,

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Speaker 3: and I agree with john that I meant between the

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Speaker 3: overtime game with Oklahoma and the Big twelve and what

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Speaker 3: LSU did to Georgia. You know, Georgia left so many

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Speaker 3: points on the table in the first half. I'm not

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Speaker 3: really sure the books are going to stop taking money

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Speaker 3: on LSU because not everybody has a power rating like

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Speaker 3: the west Gate. Not everybody has a power rating like

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Speaker 3: they could care less that we'd make this game eight

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Speaker 3: and a half. And I just you know, I don't

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Speaker 3: know if that number is ever going to come down

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Speaker 3: for LSU unless some large money comes in on Oklahoma

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Speaker 3: at some point. But Johnny offering live betting stuck. And

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Speaker 3: I talk about this all the time. Why take an

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma thirteen pregame when this is like the semi final

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Speaker 3: last year where Kyler Murray got down by you know,

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Speaker 3: twenty one twenty eight points and there was a live

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Speaker 3: number of twenty one to twenty eight, and you know,

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Speaker 3: this Oklahoma offense, if they don't turn the ball over,

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Speaker 3: they could cover any live number, like say over seventeen

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Speaker 3: or twenty one points. Do you feel like that's probably

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Speaker 3: the same situation which happens in this game?

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Speaker 4: Again, I think that's a very good point. I know

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Speaker 4: Alabama was up twenty one and nothing at the end

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Speaker 4: of the first quarter in the Orange Bowl last year,

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Speaker 4: and we could see something like that here. Like if

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Speaker 4: you're LSU and you get out to a really big lead,

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Speaker 4: let's say you're up by three or four touchdowns, you

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Speaker 4: got to kind of take your foot off the gas.

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Speaker 4: You've got a national championship game to then start preparing for,

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Speaker 4: and it could allow Oklahoma to get back into the game,

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Speaker 4: score some late touchdowns, get inside that big number. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: you're probably right. You probably will be able to get

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Speaker 4: more than thirty team on the end game. It's just

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Speaker 4: a dangerous game to play. What if Oklahoma goes down

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Speaker 4: the field and scores a touchdown right away?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know.

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Speaker 4: I mean, if you if you like Oklahoma, you should

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Speaker 4: bet them before the game. But I do agree with

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Speaker 4: your your overall point, you probably probably will be able

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Speaker 4: to get something better at some point during the end game.

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Speaker 3: We need some props on the board at the west

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Speaker 3: Gate for how many turnovers Jalen Hurts is going to have,

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Speaker 3: and a bonus factor for how manovers he has in

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Speaker 3: the red zone. Yeah, inside the red zone.

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Speaker 4: You guys think that Jalen Hurts has had the most

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Speaker 4: interesting career in college football history. I was talking to

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Speaker 4: a buddy of mine about this. This guy started in

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Speaker 4: the Iron Bowl, the Red River Shootout, he started in Bedlam.

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Speaker 4: He won an SEC championship game, a Big twelve championship game.

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Speaker 4: Now he's playing in the College Football Playoff for a

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Speaker 4: different team. I mean, who's who's played in more big

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Speaker 4: games than Jaylen.

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Speaker 3: If there's one guy that's not gonna afraid of the moment,

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Speaker 3: you're right, it's a turn The only thing this guy

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Speaker 3: is missing is a three am Hawaii game. If we

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Speaker 3: could get that on Jalen Hurts's resume, we'd be good.

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Speaker 3: Switching over to the Fiesta Bowl, where I'm sure Ohio

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Speaker 3: State is reminded every day that they were there three

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Speaker 3: years ago got blown out thirty one to zero. Westgate

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Speaker 3: is one of the only books that has Clemson minus

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Speaker 3: two and a half. Does that just indicate that you

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Speaker 3: guys need Ohio State money or is it just a

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Speaker 3: stance that you guys are taking saying we like Clemson

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Speaker 3: at this number a lot.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, we actually opened Ohio State a one

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Speaker 4: point favored in this game because our you know, our

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Speaker 4: power rating numbers. Ohio State's been the number one team

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Speaker 4: in the country since like week two or three. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's been a long time. I know Clemson looked very

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Speaker 4: good in the in the a SEC Championship game, but

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Speaker 4: I think people might be losing sight a little bit

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Speaker 4: of how good Ohio State is. I mean, I know

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Speaker 4: they struggled against Wisconsin, but they went through a big

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Speaker 4: ten that's much better than the ACC and they basically

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Speaker 4: dominated every game they played. I don't I think people

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Speaker 4: might be losing sight of that a little bit. But look,

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Speaker 4: everybody's betting Clemson here, and we think there's a chance

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Speaker 4: this game is going to close higher than this. That's

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Speaker 4: why you see as that a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: higher number. The key to this whole industry is not

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Speaker 4: I know, everybody likes to talk about odds making and

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Speaker 4: what the opening numbers are. That's not what's important. What's

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Speaker 4: important is being at the closing number before everybody else

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Speaker 4: getting to the right number, the closing number first. That's everything.

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Speaker 4: That's the most important part of this game from our

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Speaker 4: side of the counter, and we do think there's a

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Speaker 4: chance this thing might close a little bit higher. With

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Speaker 4: everybody betting Clemson. You got to consider too, think of

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Speaker 4: how many LSU Clemson parlays there's going to be that day,

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Speaker 4: and then LSU covers the first game. Everything's going to

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Speaker 4: roll the Clemson in the second game. You just mentioned

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Speaker 4: that game three years ago. Everybody bet Clemson in that

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Speaker 4: game like crazy. We got killed on that game, and

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Speaker 4: we're thinking that we might get similar action this year.

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Speaker 2: The Clemson perceptions is crazy to me that we've been

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Speaker 2: we'd like Clemson all year, just like Ohio State. But

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Speaker 2: everyone went from oh Clemson, they haven't played anybody, to

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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, all right, they're this good.

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Speaker 2: They're beating Ohio State when really they still haven't played anybody.

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Speaker 2: But the perception flip just because of you know, a

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Speaker 2: number of blowouts and covers has been crazy to me.

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Speaker 3: It's like you kind of have to protect yourself on

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Speaker 3: the money line too, because I know when I'm once

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Speaker 3: I land in Vegas and all my apps start working,

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Speaker 3: which I love the Westgate for those of you guys listening,

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Speaker 3: Westgate is one of the few Vegas apps where, whether

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Speaker 3: you're in state or not, you could check the odds

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Speaker 3: from anywhere in the nation as long as you have

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Speaker 3: their app. So huge, huge shout out for Westgate for that.

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Speaker 3: But when I land in Vegas, the first thing I'm

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Speaker 3: doing on spreads that are like one and two is

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Speaker 3: I'll just start looking at moneyline because I don't want

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Speaker 3: to mess with points. It doesn't matter what sport, if

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Speaker 3: it's college basketball or if it's college football, it's a

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Speaker 3: one and a half or a one, and I can

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Speaker 3: find a really cheap, you know, minus one twenty five

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Speaker 3: money line. You guys have to protect yourself on that

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Speaker 3: with Clemson too, right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure. I mean I think that, especially in

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Speaker 4: the money line parlay markets, there's gonna be so many

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Speaker 4: moneyline parlays that week of like all the favorites going

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Speaker 4: to LSU and Clemson. We're going to need Ohio State

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Speaker 4: pretty big in that game, I think, But we win

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Speaker 4: a ton on Clemson. In the future book, we've seen

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Speaker 4: this coming pretty much the whole way. You guys just

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Speaker 4: mentioned the Clemson schedule. You guys are absolutely right. I mean,

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Speaker 4: we knew they were going to be in the College

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Speaker 4: Football Playoff basically like in the summer, so we really

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Speaker 4: wanted to make sure we were in a good position

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Speaker 4: on them in the future book, and we've we've structured

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Speaker 4: it that way.

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Speaker 3: So as let's switch topics here, as somebody that's been

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Speaker 3: running to the Westgate for the last eighteen months and

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Speaker 3: throwing as much money as I had spare on me

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Speaker 3: free money to you guys, donating to you guys on

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence two years in a row for the Heisman.

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Speaker 3: By the way, I'll be back for Trevor Lawrence next year.

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Speaker 3: Whatever you guys putt about. Where do you got? You

250
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Speaker 3: guys had a three hundred to one when he took

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Speaker 3: over for Kelly Bryan. It was a three hundred to one,

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Speaker 3: and I said, oh, no, oh no, We're gonna have

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Speaker 3: to get some money down here just because of my

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Speaker 3: love for this kid. Let's see, where where does the

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Speaker 3: book fall on the decision for Joe Burrow to win

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Speaker 3: the Heisman this weekend?

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I think you're absolutely right about

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Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence. I think Trevor Lawrence is already better than

259
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Speaker 4: about a dozen starting NFL quarterbacks. And it's a complete

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Speaker 4: joke that he has to go back to Clemson next

261
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Speaker 4: year when he would be he would be the first

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Speaker 4: overall pick in the draft. I mean, I'm a longtime

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Speaker 4: Redskins fan. I've said the best thing the Redskins can

264
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Speaker 4: do is hire Hugh Jackson, go own sixteen next year,

265
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Speaker 4: and then draft Lawrence with the first pick in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty one. It's a better plan than anything they got

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Speaker 4: going on, I'll tell you that much. Now. To answer

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Speaker 4: your question, we're going to get absolutely killed on Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 4: You know, we had him at two hundred and one,

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Speaker 4: and we took eleven tickets to two hundred and one.

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Speaker 4: One guy's got one hundred and fifty bucks to win

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Speaker 4: thirty thousand. Two other guys got one hundred bucks each

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Speaker 4: to win twenty thousand. It's a pretty big loss for us.

275
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Speaker 4: And then there are people betting him throughout the season,

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Speaker 4: of course, and there's.

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Speaker 2: No hedge too. It's not like to have the hedge

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Speaker 2: because it's pretty much known that he's gonna win.

279
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Speaker 4: He should get every first place vote, Like, how could

280
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Speaker 4: you even vote for somebody else? Not only has he

281
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Speaker 4: been playing so great, but Hurts and Fields and those guys,

282
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Speaker 4: they really haven't been that great down the stretch. So

283
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Speaker 4: it shouldn't even be a question. He should get every

284
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Speaker 4: first place vote.

285
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Speaker 3: And I think I've seen some props up about, you know,

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Speaker 3: how many votes exactly will he get. I would take

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Speaker 3: the over on anything that's posted out there, and so

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Speaker 3: this is, you know, it's a good question for how

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Speaker 3: do you guys, Like, when you have a two hundred

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Speaker 3: to one is it based upon how much the ticket

291
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Speaker 3: could actually win? When do you start dropping that number?

292
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Speaker 3: Is it respected money? Is it the size of a

293
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,439
Speaker 3: ticket that would take it two hundred to one? Like

294
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Speaker 3: when you say you have eleven tickets on it? What

295
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,840
Speaker 3: was the trigger to maybe start dropping it and saying, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: we got to think about what we've got here.

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Speaker 4: It's all about the liability. We took a bunch of

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Speaker 4: bets on Mitchell Trubisky to win the NFL MVP, which

299
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Speaker 4: we laughed at, but we still had to lower the number, guys,

300
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Speaker 4: because you can't look Our job here is to protect

301
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Speaker 4: the book. Ultimately, that's our number one responsibility to protect

302
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Speaker 4: the house. We can't allow this book to lose some

303
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,080
Speaker 4: astronomical amount of money. None of us thought Joe Burrow

304
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Speaker 4: who was going to win the Heisman. That's why we

305
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Speaker 4: opened it two hundred and one. But there was a

306
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Speaker 4: point where our liability got so big into the six

307
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Speaker 4: figure range. We had a lower and we ended up

308
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Speaker 4: going to forty to one in July, and then obviously

309
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Speaker 4: when the season started, we just had to keep lowering

310
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Speaker 4: and lowering because the kid just kept playing so well.

311
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Speaker 4: But I give credit to the people that bet him,

312
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Speaker 4: of course, but I just it wasn't a guy that

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Speaker 4: was even on my radar as a Heisman Trophy winner

314
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Speaker 4: back in the summer, right.

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Speaker 3: We're all going to have to pay attention to who

316
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Speaker 3: hires a passing game coordinator from the NFL. Now switching

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Speaker 3: over to that, there was a prop that just dominated

318
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Speaker 3: the summer conversation, which you know, I looked at the

319
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Speaker 3: prop and I said, it's priced correctly. I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to get involved with it. But what I do want

321
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Speaker 3: to buy is Alabama to not make the playoff. So

322
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Speaker 3: when I came to town, that's all I was looking for.

323
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Speaker 3: Was Alabama to not make the playoff instead of the

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Speaker 3: prop of Alabama and Clemson versus the field for the

325
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Speaker 3: national championship. Alabama's out of it. Clemson is still the

326
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Speaker 3: one running with that. But you have a lot of

327
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Speaker 3: liability on people that came in said, oh, yeah, Alabama

328
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Speaker 3: Clemson for the national time. Yeah.

329
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Speaker 4: Actually we win a lot on the Alabama Clemson side

330
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Speaker 4: right now. We took a lot of field bets there

331
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Speaker 4: in the summer. I mean it looks like we took

332
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Speaker 4: about we took well into five figures on the field

333
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,600
Speaker 4: at plus one fifty and plus one sixty. We took

334
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Speaker 4: some big bets at like minus one eighty minus one seventy,

335
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,280
Speaker 4: minus one sixty on the Alabama Clemson side. Well, really

336
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 4: good two way action there. But we actually win on

337
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 4: Alabama Clemson and lose on the field. So really not

338
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 4: in a great position there with Alabama not getting into

339
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Speaker 4: the playoffs. But I thought it was a great prop

340
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,520
Speaker 4: and we'll probably look to do something similar next year.

341
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Speaker 4: Although I guess next year it's just going to be

342
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Speaker 4: like all Clemson. I mean, Clemson's bringing like all these

343
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Speaker 4: kids back, right.

344
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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, yeah, absolutely, which I've never understood anybody taking

345
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Speaker 3: minus one eighty or bigger on a prop like this

346
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:48,960
Speaker 3: when there's going to be a money line on a

347
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 3: national championship gave you know, it's like, why would you

348
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,480
Speaker 3: lock up that kind of money on minus one eighty?

349
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Speaker 4: So I guess everybody at that time was thinking it

350
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 4: was going to be Alabama Clemson the championship game.

351
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Speaker 2: That's fair.

352
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Speaker 4: Yeah, but but yeah, I know, I know what you're saying.

353
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Speaker 4: Fun prop though, and we'll revisit it next year. I

354
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,800
Speaker 4: mean Alabama, I'm gonna go out on limb here. Guys,

355
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,080
Speaker 4: they're probably gonna be pretty competitive next season. So maybe

356
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Speaker 4: we could just do Alabama Clemson again.

357
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Speaker 2: No, they should be pretty good. You mentioned you mentioned

358
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Speaker 2: this earlier that about your liability and you guys will

359
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 2: be winners on Clemson. Do you want to just run

360
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 2: through quickly what happens if the other teams win? And

361
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,120
Speaker 2: are you a big loser if one or the other

362
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,320
Speaker 2: on one of the other trios wins the national championship?

363
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're a big loser on Oklahoma. Oklahoma's is a

364
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,560
Speaker 4: pretty big loss for us. Here, we're a small loser

365
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,120
Speaker 4: to LSU. We win a good number on Ohio State,

366
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 4: and we really clean up on Clemson. Clemson is is

367
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 4: the home run hit for us here. Oklahoma is a

368
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 4: big loser. But it's hard to picture any team winning

369
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Speaker 4: a combination of two games against two of those three

370
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 4: other teams, talking about LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. To

371
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,400
Speaker 4: stream together two wins against those those teams just doesn't

372
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 4: seem possible to Yeah, Yeah.

373
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Speaker 3: And especially beating LSU if els who makes the National

374
00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,400
Speaker 3: Championship game. They're gonna be playing it down in New Orleans.

375
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Speaker 3: That's going to be a tough that's gonna be don't

376
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 3: care which you say about homefield and be a neutral

377
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:03,800
Speaker 3: that's not going to be a neutral site game. I

378
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,760
Speaker 3: would think there was a robust number for props for

379
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,960
Speaker 3: Clemson Alabama last year when stuck Knife flew in for

380
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 3: the National Championship. This is why the west Gate is

381
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 3: like the greatest book to ever watch a big time game.

382
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 3: Is there going to be NFL style offerings on props

383
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,720
Speaker 3: this year for this year's National title game? Because I

384
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 3: know last year I was cashing Trevor over to TDS

385
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 3: ETN props all kinds of it.

386
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 2: Was Austin Sheen and we did a contest with each

387
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:32,640
Speaker 2: other where you props for and then whoever comes out

388
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 2: on top, you know, takes some of the pot. So

389
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 2: it's just creates so much fun in so many different ways.

390
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we'll definitely have a huge prop menu for

391
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 4: the National Championship game. I mean really, regardless of the matchup,

392
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,000
Speaker 4: you're gonna have two high powered teams, which is good

393
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 4: for props. When you when you do these prop numbers,

394
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 4: you always want it to be like a crazy we

395
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 4: Actually we don't want it to be a high scoring game.

396
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 4: Beca's gonna get killed on the props because the public

397
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,000
Speaker 4: bets everything over But having these really high powered offenses

398
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 4: does make doing prop numbers more fun, I think a

399
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 4: little bit more interesting, and regardless of what the matchup is,

400
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,479
Speaker 4: we'll have a nice big menu of props again this year.

401
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 2: That's why that Super Bowl must have been so fun

402
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:09,719
Speaker 2: to watch for you guys last year.

403
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 4: Well you know what it was, guys, But I told

404
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,399
Speaker 4: this story back in February. You know, we told all

405
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,440
Speaker 4: the we told all the executives here like root for

406
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 4: nothing to happen. That's great, that's great, But we would

407
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 4: have got absolutely killed if there had been no touchdowns

408
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 4: in the game because people bet like no touchdowns at

409
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 4: a huge price. So eventually we're like, we got to

410
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: a point where we're just rooting for anyone to find

411
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,200
Speaker 4: the ends because we were gonna We're gonna give away

412
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,680
Speaker 4: our entire day on this ridiculous no touchdowns problem. So

413
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,640
Speaker 4: certainly that Super Bowl is great for us. The one

414
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,199
Speaker 4: the year before Philadelphia not so good for us.

415
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess you have like one touchdown, no safety

416
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 2: and low scoring.

417
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 4: When you give the like the really the higher ups

418
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 4: here a report and say like, here's what you should

419
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 4: be rooting for, it never dawns on you to say, oh,

420
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 4: by the way, root for someone to score a touchdown

421
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,480
Speaker 4: like that. That's never something you're thinking about before the game. Yeah,

422
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,640
Speaker 4: we really do poorly if nobody's go as a touchdown.

423
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 4: That never really thought crossed my mind. Honestly.

424
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Speaker 2: That's funny. All right, we'll switching gears into this weekend.

425
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 2: It's something more pertinent for betters out there. I'm always curious.

426
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 2: This is a question I always ask Odds Baker's books.

427
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 2: I always say Army Navy. It's an isolated game. You know,

428
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 2: everyone likes to watch it. It's all the tradition. Number one,

429
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,639
Speaker 2: how much volume do you get on that game, you know,

430
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:26,159
Speaker 2: in comparison to like an isolated big college football no

431
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 2: game on a on a weeknight, or even an NFL game.

432
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 2: And then number two, what kind of money are you

433
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 2: taking there? So far?

434
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,160
Speaker 4: We did have one guy he came in a couple

435
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 4: of days ago. He bet he laid Navy minus ten

436
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,120
Speaker 4: for ten thousand. That's really the only significant that we've

437
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 4: seen so far on this game. But it'll be a

438
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 4: good handled game. Just because it's the only game in town.

439
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,880
Speaker 4: It'll be the only thing going on on Saturday. People

440
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 4: will force themselves to bet on the game because there's

441
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 4: really nothing else to bet on. I mean, yeah, there's

442
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,160
Speaker 4: college basketball, but for the most part, the general public

443
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 4: is still in a football state of mind until the

444
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 4: NFL season ends. So they'll find a way to bet

445
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 4: this game, I'm sure. And you know the number. If

446
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 4: you go back into the summer, the look ahead number

447
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 4: on this game was like basically a reversal of what

448
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 4: it is now. I think you could bet Navy close

449
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 4: to plus ten at some shops in the summer. Yeah,

450
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 4: because the Army had such a good year last year. Yeah,

451
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 4: Navy had a really bad year last year. Our number

452
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 4: was lower. We kept it low because we thought the

453
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 4: Army Navy numbers around town were a little too high.

454
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 4: We had like six six and a half something like that.

455
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 4: Army minus six and a half. But certainly it's not

456
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 4: like we were right about the game. And maybe now

457
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 4: an eleven point favorite.

458
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's pretty pretty wild the flips those two teams

459
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 2: have done. And then getting to Sunday. I know this

460
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: is our college football episode, but just a touch on

461
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 2: some NFL on Sunday. The reason I wanted to bring

462
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 2: this up is, you know, I don't think when's the

463
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 2: last time we've seen potentially it's still early, but the

464
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 2: house really need Dallas at home minus one is maybe

465
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 2: one of the biggest decisions of the weekend. Is that

466
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 2: one of the biggest or what else are you seeing

467
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: there in regards to Sunday's cards so far early midweek?

468
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 4: Well, you nailed it. We're gonna need the Cowboys huge,

469
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 4: and it's very bizarre to see the Cowboys, you know,

470
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 4: in like in Dallas, in like that high profile America's

471
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 4: Game of the Week scenario, and we need the Cowboys huge.

472
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 4: Tickets are like nine to one on the Rams. You know,

473
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 4: we actually open this game on Sunday Dallas minus three.

474
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 4: That was before the Rams really impressive win on Sunday

475
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 4: Night football against Seattle, a game they probably dominated even

476
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 4: more than the score indicates. But I think the thing

477
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 4: to keep in mind with this game is Dallas doesn't

478
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 4: really need to win this game as long as they

479
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 4: beat Philadelphia and then I think they play the Redskins

480
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 4: Week seventeen. As long as they win those two games,

481
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,399
Speaker 4: they win the division no matter what happens on Sunday,

482
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 4: Whereas the Rams they have to win this game to

483
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 4: keep their playoff hopes alive. Everybody's aware of these things,

484
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 4: and everybody is betting the Rams like crazy.

485
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,400
Speaker 3: And don't think for one second that you're not gonna

486
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 3: need the Cowboys again when they make the playoffs as

487
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 3: like a seven and nine team, and then they're gonna

488
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: get you into the wildcard round.

489
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 4: Right, that'll be interesting line, But I don't think they're

490
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: going to be that big of a dog against Seattle.

491
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 4: Seattle is a team that we've been saying for a

492
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 4: while that they're really not as good as their record.

493
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 4: They've made me look extremely bad a few times because

494
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 4: I picked the forty nine ers against them on Monday

495
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 4: Night Football. I picked the Vikings against them on Money

496
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 4: Night Football. But I really I don't think Seattle is

497
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 4: as good as that record indicate. So I don't know

498
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,199
Speaker 4: that they'll be a huge favorite in Dallas. Yeah, if

499
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 4: that is the game we get.

500
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I completely agree. It's if you look back,

501
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 2: it's I think last week was more of an indictment

502
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: of Seattle, who's winning all these games. I won to

503
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: getting a bunch of turnoverluck, and the Rams always play

504
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 2: well against their offense just matches up really well. So

505
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: I was happy to see that this line has now

506
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: come to Dallas plus one because I'm going to be

507
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 2: on the Cowboys, maybe I can get a little more.

508
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: And the other other game I ask you about is

509
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: where are you on Packers Bears? Because that's to me

510
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 2: when I look at it. Look, Cowboys last week minus

511
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 2: three in Chicago, now this week Packers minus four and

512
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: a half five For somewhere in that ball part. This

513
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: line's come down at home against the Bears. I think

514
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 2: the love for the Bears has gotten a little and

515
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: I think the Packer has been pretty fortunate this year.

516
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: But what are you what are you seeing on that game?

517
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 2: That's an intriguing line to me.

518
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 4: First of all, you be careful bending your money on

519
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 4: Jason Garrett. Now, just be careful on Sunday.

520
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 2: I trust me.

521
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 4: Everybody's on green Bay. And actually the number is moving

522
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 4: down anyway. We moved this number down from five down

523
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: to four right now, Packers minus four. All the public

524
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 4: here is on the Packers. You know, it does seem

525
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 4: like it's because I've been anti green Bay all season,

526
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 4: and it does seem like it's probably gotten a little

527
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 4: bit too cheap. Though we are still talking about Mitchell

528
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 4: Trubisky and Matt Naggy here. Green Bay was just on

529
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 4: cruise control last Sunday against just a completely hopeless Redskins team.

530
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 4: But green Bay probably the value does seem like it's

531
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 4: shifted over to that side at this point.

532
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're taking bigger money on Chicago moving that down.

533
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 3: You know what.

534
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 4: We're just moving with the market on that one, to

535
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 4: tell you the truth. I mean, there are some games

536
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 4: where we've taken some big bets, but at that game,

537
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: we've mostly just been moving with the market. Anybody, any bookie,

538
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 4: you guys have on this show that tells you he

539
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 4: doesn't move with the market is a liar. I absolutely,

540
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 4: We do that.

541
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 3: All the time, all the time.

542
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 2: All right, well, we'll close it up there and we'll

543
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 2: see you out in Las Vegas for the National Championship.

544
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 2: Looking forward to catching up and thanks as always for

545
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 2: your time and valuable insight.

546
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 4: All right, guys, thanks for having me on the show.

547
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 2: Thanks cheers, brother, thanks again to John for joining us.

548
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 2: Just some great insight all around college football, NFL, just

549
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: the market in general. I think a natural transition from

550
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 2: that is to go right into the Army Navy game,

551
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 2: that game which all you know, all eyes will be

552
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 2: on it. Although we do have and you know we're

553
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: going to start doing college basketball episodes, you know, a

554
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: really good college basketball slate coming up on Saturday. But

555
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 2: let's talk Army Navy. Here. Navy's ten and a half,

556
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 2: eleven point favorite. This game is in Philly, there's gonna

557
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: be some rain to keep an eye on. Over unders

558
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: down to forty and a half. The first thing that

559
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: you have to mention talking Army Navy is the unders. Right.

560
00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 2: Thirteen straight times this game has gone under the total,

561
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 2: and that's the closing total. These things usually drop. Now

562
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: what I will say, and we've talked about this ad

563
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: nauseum about you know, option teams break models, and especially

564
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: when they play each other. You have two teams that

565
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 2: are just bleeding the clock, controlling possession. You got to

566
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 2: throw out your yards per play because a lot of

567
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 2: times they're just gonna go three yards, three yards, three yards,

568
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: take up three minutes, go for it on fourth down

569
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: and get it so the clock will be running. But listen,

570
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: just because, and this is a really important point, just

571
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 2: because a trend has worked in the past doesn't guarantee

572
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: it to work in the future, especially one that everyone

573
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 2: now is extremely cognizant of, and that's this. You know,

574
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: Army Navy under and you saw this open at forty four.

575
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: It went right down immediately to forty and a half.

576
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 2: I actually show a little value in the over now.

577
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: It goes against everything that I know with service academies.

578
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 2: But in this game you have to adjust. And by game,

579
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: I mean the betting game. So I'll throw it to you.

580
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 2: What are you seeing here in regards to the side

581
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: total and just overall for this game in Philly at

582
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 2: three o'clock eastern on Saturday.

583
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, see I mean for the side I I somebody

584
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: posted a Jersey book posted a Navy minus four a

585
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. I was happy to jump on that.

586
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: And I know that this. You know, if they're gonna

587
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 3: post Clemson minus twenty one in the ACC Championship game,

588
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: they're gonna post Navy minus four. Listen if it's a

589
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: touchdown or so off. And I put it in the

590
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 3: app and it's like a look aheadline. Hopefully that helps

591
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 3: alert users are in that market that have access to

592
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: that number that hey, this is incorrect, and this is

593
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 3: something we can take advantage of. As far as the

594
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: current number at ten and a half, it's spot onto

595
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 3: what we have in the power ratings. But at the

596
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 3: same time, this rivalry is just so close, and these

597
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 3: teams know each other so well, and considering the pace

598
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 3: of play, it seems like it's a pretty outrageous number.

599
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 3: I know Navy's kind of done a complete three sixty

600
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 3: this year, but you're right, just because you know something

601
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: has happened thirteen times in a row with an under

602
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that you know the under is absolutely guaranteed

603
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 3: to happen again. Oddsmakers have adjusted the total, you know

604
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 3: is down to forty and a half. The forties are

605
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: starting to disappear, by the way. So I put in

606
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 3: a live bet here while we're while we're recording our podcast.

607
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 3: But for me, it was all about the over in

608
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 3: this game. Now that I've got the side. If I

609
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 3: was playing the side and I had to make a

610
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 3: pick and a pick and pool, I would probably take Army.

611
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: This is a lot of points, especially when you consider that,

612
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: you know, the power success rate for Navy is one

613
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 3: of the worst on the nation. There are one hundred

614
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: and twenty fifth in offensive power success that measures if

615
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: you can get two yards on third and fourth down.

616
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: There's a lot of third and fourth downs here, and

617
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 3: that's what Navy's rank is, I'm sorry on the defensive

618
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: side of the ball. So Army, who's thirteenth in the

619
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 3: nation in power success, is going to be able to

620
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 3: line up and get those third and fourth down conversions

621
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: all day long. So I just think the point spread

622
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: is way too high as far as the total goes.

623
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: Listen and seconds per play and pace, these teams are

624
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifteenth and one hundred and twentieth. We

625
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 3: know that, you know, when they play against Air Force

626
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 3: it's usually a very low scoring game. It's just how

627
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: these Service Academy games are going. So I'm going to

628
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 3: go with the over here. I think you and I

629
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 3: have talked about this, you know, previous this week. There's

630
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 3: some them with these two teams that is different than

631
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 3: years past, and it's their finishing drives, their offensive finishing drives,

632
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 3: and generally these teams have a very high red zone

633
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 3: TD percentage. I went through like the last ten years

634
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 3: of data and Army and Navy are always top twenty five,

635
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 3: top thirty in red zone TD percentage, meaning they always

636
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 3: get a touchdown when they get down to the red zone.

637
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 3: But then I started doing a deep dive into finishing drives,

638
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: and finishing drives is a measurement of your points per

639
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 3: attempt past the opponent forty yard line. And this year

640
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 3: they ranked first and fourteenth. Navy is first in the

641
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: country and finishing drives Army is fourteenth. I went back

642
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 3: and looked at a whole number of years. I looked

643
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: at twenty eighteen, seventeen, sixteen, fifteen. I could not find

644
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 3: a combination of these two teams being ranked this high

645
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 3: in finishing drives. So I think if either team is

646
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 3: able to get past midfield, we're going to get points

647
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: on the board. For me, I'm taking the over in

648
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 3: this game. I'm not scared of the thirteen year trend.

649
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: I do think field position is going to be a

650
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 3: serious issue for Army. They have one of the worst

651
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 3: punt return efficiency ranks in the nation as to where

652
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 3: Navy is like eighteenth in the nation and punting. So

653
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 3: I think there is going to be a field position

654
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: problem for Army. But I mean forties just it could

655
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 3: be any kind of defensive score. It could be you know,

656
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 3: a Malcolm Perry draws everybody in on third down and

657
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 3: goes deep. It could be anything to get this over.

658
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to highlight another example, there used to

659
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: be a trend in the NFL that was pretty profitable

660
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 2: years ago where you could fade West Coast teams coming

661
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: east for the one o'clock kick. Well, that's no longer

662
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: problem for a number of reasons. The one, it's been

663
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: priced into the market, and number two, teams have gotten

664
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: smarter when it comes to travel and preparation. But you know,

665
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: some of these things that become very obvious, they're not

666
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: going to be obvious and inefficient in the market forever.

667
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 2: They're eventually going to get priced out. This I think

668
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: is one of them. I mean, if you look back

669
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 2: historically at the over unders in this game, you're talking

670
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: what I think, I don't know, the less thirteen years,

671
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 2: you're probably talking forty eight to fifty on average, when

672
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: I it's at forty And it's not like these teams

673
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 2: change drastically their triple option offenses. So yeah, I think

674
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: that the value may have swung the other way now.

675
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: And I mean there's a couple of the factors working in,

676
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,239
Speaker 2: you know, in favor of the under which is one

677
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: is the weather. Now wind doesn't really matter, and you

678
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: know with with the rain, you know it's it's the

679
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: rain all night on Friday in Philly all day and Saturday.

680
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: It actually could end up working in the overs favor,

681
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: right if you're you know you're gonna be pitching the

682
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: ball depending on where these turnovers happen. It just does

683
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: introduce more variants. The footing might not be as good

684
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: as well. But there's a couple of other factors here

685
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 2: with Army coming back from Hawaii but not a factor

686
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 2: to me. You know, they had two weeks before that

687
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: game and they've had two weeks before this this this game,

688
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 2: Kelvin Hopkins has banged up, you know, but their Army's quarterback.

689
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: But I didn't see much difference with Christian Anderson running

690
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 2: the show. He looked fine to me against Hawaii, So

691
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a massive drop off of he's

692
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 2: in there or has to come in or starts. But

693
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 2: I will say that Army. You saw them against Michigan,

694
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: and we know the triple option is the great equalizer,

695
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: so they're always going to play these you know, far

696
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: superior teams closer. But they've and then they've really disappointed since.

697
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: But what a lot of people don't realize is they've

698
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: been really injured. And you know it's the Army injury

699
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: reports and news out of Army you're not really getting.

700
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: But in that game against Michigan, twelve of their starters

701
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 2: from that game have missed at least one game. So

702
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 2: they've had extremely poor injury luckso have been banged up

703
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 2: all year, which is why I think, you know, they've

704
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: underperformed all season, and now why I think they might

705
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: have a little value. I mean, taking a triple option

706
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: offense to me a service academy even against another service academy.

707
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: When you're catching double digits is always enticing.

708
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: I completely agree the market, and especially about the part

709
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: where the market is adjusted. It's not like all the

710
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: totals for the previous games were set at forty. I mean,

711
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 3: they they have set this, They know where the public

712
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 3: is going to come in, they know where sharps are

713
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 3: going to come in, and there's no more key numbers,

714
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 3: no more key numbers to cross. I mean, I would

715
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: definitely want to get this at forty one. I would

716
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: definitely want to get this at forty. I could see

717
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 3: that it's starting to take off. I think there's going

718
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:08,959
Speaker 3: to be some over money kind of come in here

719
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 3: before kick.

720
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. The other thing is is that I throw out

721
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 2: motivation in this game. If you read that, you know,

722
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: if you read that, there's hey, look, Army has won

723
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: the past three games, and then before the Navy won

724
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: a bunch in a row, you also might read Navy

725
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: has another bowl game coming up in Army doesn't know.

726
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: This is Army Navy. This is the game they want

727
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: to win. This is the most important game of the

728
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: year to both teams. There's no motivation going to be

729
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: missing from either side.

730
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 3: This is the game, Like when these players are sixty

731
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 3: years old, this is the game that they will talk

732
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: to their grandchildren about. Not the Quick Laying Bowl or

733
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 3: whatever wherever you're going. They're not going to talk about that.

734
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: They're going to talk about the Army Navy game when

735
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: they were a senior. So this is it's a big deal.

736
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you don't have any money on it, or

737
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: you want to just throw a couple of hours on

738
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: it for entertainment purposes just to enjoy it, you should.

739
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: You know, these are the kids that are willing to

740
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: sacrifice everything so that we can sit here on a

741
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: Saturday and watch and bet on college football. So if

742
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: you have some free time on Saturday, throw it on

743
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: for a little bit while you're sweating some college basketball

744
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: with me, just to you know, throw out these scores lately,

745
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 2: Like even if the over under was forty over the

746
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 2: last ten years seventeen ten, fourteen, thirteen, twenty one, seventeen

747
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: twenty one, seventeen, seventeen, ten, thirty four seven, there's an

748
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: over seventeen thirteen, twenty seven and twenty one to twenty

749
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: one thirty one seventeen, so back twenty ten and then seventeen, thirteen,

750
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 2: thirty four nothing, thirty eight three. So you see a

751
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: lot of these like thirty eight three, thirty four seven.

752
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: These are the games that go you know, would have

753
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 2: easily went under before. But getting to forty one now

754
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: at this total, it gets you over. But having said that,

755
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,479
Speaker 2: you know, the last five or six still didn't get

756
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: to forty, right.

757
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 3: And I mean, I know that we're gonna have a

758
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 3: full preview out on Action Network about this game, and

759
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 3: I know I would deep into last year's box score

760
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 3: and you know, each there were over there were double

761
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 3: digit drives that went into opponent territory and almost none

762
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 3: of them, you know, came out with any points whatsoever,

763
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 3: whether it was turnover, on downs, fumbles, the finishing drives.

764
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 3: Stat took a huge hit last year with these two

765
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: teams seventeen to ten and they you know, they each

766
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 3: crossed over into opponent territory at ten times. So last

767
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 3: year was a classic under.

768
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Navy offense is so much better this year,

769
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 2: and the Army defense is worse. I know that there's

770
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 2: familiarity with the options, which is why another reason why

771
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 2: these things go under. But you know, the Army defense

772
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: has taken a step back some of its injuries, some

773
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: of it's the loss of coordinator j Bateman, but maybe

774
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: should have a lot more success on offense this time around.

775
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, like you mentioned, we'll have a preview

776
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: up on actionework dot Com and the Action app diving

777
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: into this game. All right, let's move on to a

778
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: segment I have been dying to get to for weeks.

779
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 2: We are bringing it back. For the last you know,

780
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 2: hour or two, I was digging into some FCS numbers.

781
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: So let's get to FCS or.

782
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: No, Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's

783
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: time to play FC yes or no.

784
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 2: Let's talk to four FCS quarter final games, just to

785
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: give you a lay of the land for those who

786
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: haven't been following the FCS, and we'll jump into it now,

787
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: you know, with the quarterfinals this week, then the semis

788
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: and then the championship. Just for betting purposes. Usually North

789
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: Dakota State is head and shoulders above everyone else, and

790
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: they're probably the best team once again, you know, if

791
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 2: you go by Sagan ratings, I think they're top forty

792
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 2: in the nation. In the nation that includes FBS teams

793
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: as well. You know, in yours past, they've been in

794
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 2: the top twenty five, so not as quite as dominant

795
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: of the North Dakota State team in years past, but

796
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 2: it's really really good. They won every game by double digits.

797
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: But right on their heels is James Madison, and I

798
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: only have that James Madison is like a couple points

799
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: and you know this is I don't spend too much time,

800
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 2: but just a couple points worse than North Dakota State,

801
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 2: you know. So that's clearly the first tier of teams

802
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 2: and the most likely final that we're going to get,

803
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 2: which will be awesome. And then you know, the next

804
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 2: tier of teams, you know, maybe about ten to twelve

805
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: points worse than those two. You have Montana, Montana State

806
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: and Weaver State, and then after that it's probably Northern

807
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: Iowa whose offense is terrible, Illinois State and Austin p

808
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: Also keep in mind favorites, you know, and this isn't

809
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 2: a huge market, you know, there's the limits aren't big,

810
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 2: but favorites historically have crushed. Since two thousand and five,

811
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 2: favorites are more than three points sixty nine to fifty

812
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,439
Speaker 2: three and one. It's about fifty seven percent, So they've

813
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: done very well, but let's get into these games here,

814
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: the first of which is on Friday night at seven

815
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 2: pm Eastern on ESPN two. Northern Iowa at James Madison

816
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: in Harrisonburg, Virginia, one of my favorite schools to go

817
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 2: party at when I was in college way back in

818
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 2: the day. James Madison's twelve and one on the year.

819
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 2: They've been so good. Their one loss came out at

820
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: West Virginia in Morgantown in a game they really should

821
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: have won. Northern Iowa, on the other hand, is ten

822
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 2: and four on the year. But if you look back

823
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,399
Speaker 2: at Northern Iowa, they played Iowa State in the first

824
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: week of the year in Ames and lost twenty nine

825
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 2: twenty six in triple overtime. So I was in Ames

826
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 2: and they could have went. Then there's a bunch of

827
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 2: weather in that game, which there will be here as well,

828
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 2: which I'm sure you'll talk to com But you know,

829
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 2: they had a chance to go for two a couple

830
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 2: times and didn't, which I'm still surprised by to get

831
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 2: that win. They also went to the Fargo Dome and

832
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:47,959
Speaker 2: played at in North Dakota State. Now they lost forty

833
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: six to fourteen for reference, but that's one of the

834
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 2: toughest places to play in the country. So the one

835
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 2: thing I can say is they won't be afraid of

836
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 2: the stage or the atmosphere, having already played games at

837
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 2: the Fargo Doome and at AIMS and competing with Iowa

838
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 2: State and almost winning that game. The problem is, you

839
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: know with Northern Iowa is their offense is really ugly.

840
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: It's outside the top one hundred in FCS and yards

841
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: per game. They only average five yards per play. You know,

842
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 2: they allow over seven seven tackles per loss per game.

843
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 2: That's like eightieth in the country. And that's going against

844
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 2: a JMU defense that average is close over nine, which

845
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: is third in the country. You know, their quarterback, their

846
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 2: freshman is just not very good. And you know it's

847
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,919
Speaker 2: just they rely on their defense. They've held seven straight

848
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: opponents to ten points or fewer. They're only one of

849
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: ten teams at the FCS level allowing fewer than three

850
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 2: hundred yards per game. And both of these defense are

851
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 2: in the top five in yards per play. But the

852
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 2: JMU defense, I mean, it really should dominate this game.

853
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: They have two outstanding defensive ends and Rondell Carter and

854
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 2: John Deka and they should just be in the backfield

855
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 2: all day and the offensive side, you know. And jmu's

856
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 2: top you know, if you look at their statues, like

857
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 2: North Dakota State, their top of fcs and everything. They're

858
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 2: number one with averaging forty four points per game. They're

859
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: third nationally in scaring defense, third and third down defense,

860
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 2: third and total yards, and lead the nation and rush defense.

861
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 2: So it's going to be really difficult for Northern Iowa

862
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 2: to move the ball in this game, you know, especially

863
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 2: with all their injuries. There's a number of injuries to

864
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: keep in mind here. They're all American tight end Briley Moore,

865
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 2: who hasn't played since Week one. He's questionable. They're number

866
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 2: one receiver Isaiah Weston, he's questionable concussion. It's tough. They're

867
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 2: also under man on special teams. JAMU special teams are

868
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: really good. So this is a really tall order for

869
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: a Northern Iowa you know team going up against this

870
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: jam U powerhouse that's good in all three phases. I

871
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 2: didn't even talk about their offense. With Ben de Nucci

872
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 2: at quarterback to pit transfer, they have a thousand yard

873
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 2: receiver and Brandon Polk at a Penn State transfer. And

874
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 2: then they're just awesome on the ground. They're average over

875
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty yards per game on the ground,

876
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: so it's just a really complete good team. I can't

877
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 2: see possibly how Northern Iowa pulls off this game. They're

878
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: catching nineteen and a half here over under forty six,

879
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: forty seven. What do you see?

880
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you got it all because you got

881
00:38:58,080 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 3: all my bullet points. So I'm not sure what else

882
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 3: I can add here, But the one thing that Northern

883
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,760
Speaker 3: Iowa does have is that they are an excellent defense.

884
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 3: They are in the top seven and total defense along

885
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: with JMU, so you know, at least that's what they've

886
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 3: been hanging their hat on the last few weeks. And

887
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 3: their defense is so good that their last seven games,

888
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 3: all Northern Iowa games, have been at least forty five

889
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: points or less. So notice that the total here is

890
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: set at forty six, just a little bit to the

891
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 3: under here and probably going to move down a little bit.

892
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 3: The S and P plus and sagur and ratings make

893
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,919
Speaker 3: this game. Spplus makes it seventeen point nine in James

894
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 3: Madison's favor, Sagurin makes this minus fourteen and a half

895
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 3: in James Madison favor, but I don't really understand how

896
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 3: you could play that side unless you think mother Nature

897
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 3: is going to have a huge part of the game here,

898
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 3: which could happen. The forecast is set for fifty percent

899
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 3: ice and rain. It's not going to be fluffy snow

900
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 3: that we can run around in. It looks like it's

901
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: going to be nasty. Now there's no wind involved whatsoever,

902
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: but it is going to be ice and rain, and

903
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 3: it's supposed to be a downpour, so it doesn't look

904
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 3: like weather's going to be great. That could turn into

905
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: a big, sloppy, muddy track, which would completely favor Northern Iowa.

906
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:10,760
Speaker 3: So if you're going to back them on the side,

907
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 3: then you probably want to get a full weather report

908
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,800
Speaker 3: before you go and grab them. Considering Saguran's at fourteen

909
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: and a half, the nineteen would probably have some value there.

910
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: For me, I played the under. I took an under

911
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 3: forty six. Considering that both these teams are what I think,

912
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 3: top three in scoring defense, top seven in total defense.

913
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:29,800
Speaker 3: It's been the bread and butter for you and I

914
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 3: and I know James Madison just had like a sixty

915
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 3: point game, but at the same time, this is a

916
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: very long playoff run that they have to endure. They

917
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 3: have the semifinals next week and then they'll get a

918
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: big break before the national championship game. But I think

919
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 3: more thn Iowa's defense can stand up here. I think

920
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: we're going to get an assist from the weather. So

921
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 3: if Sagurn can project a total at thirty seven, taking

922
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 3: an under forty six was good enough for me.

923
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I make this game right around seventeen ish,

924
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 2: but I don't want to be especially with the questions

925
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: with the offensive injuries on Northern Iowa, it's just tough

926
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: to imagine them, you know, hanging around here. So yeah,

927
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: I mean I could easily see this game being like

928
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 2: twenty eight three, thirty five to three or something like that.

929
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: So I'll keep eye on the Northern Iowa injuries. But yeah,

930
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,919
Speaker 2: especially with this weather and if they have a couple

931
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 2: guys out, I don't know how they score. All right,

932
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 2: So let's move on to the second quarter final game

933
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,399
Speaker 2: on Friday night, and I'll let you cover the bulk

934
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 2: of this. Because you were itching to talk to governors.

935
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: We have the Austin Peak governors eleven and three. I

936
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: think this is their first playoff, their first playoff appearance ever.

937
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 2: They're eleven and three on the year. They're at Montana

938
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 2: State ten and three on the year. Montanna, say's laying

939
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 2: six and a half here over under fifty five and

940
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: a half. This game is Friday, eight pm Eastern, I

941
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: think on ESPN APP. I mean they should just put

942
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 2: this game on Saturday, so two at the same time.

943
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 2: It's crazy. A couple things I just want to mention

944
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,959
Speaker 2: is that neither kicker is really reliable. They're both around

945
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 2: sixty percent on the year. Austin p is a very,

946
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 2: very heavily penalized team. There are not discipline, which is

947
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 2: one thing just to be concerned about, especially on the road.

948
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: They're averaging I think eighty seven penalty yards per game,

949
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 2: which is bottom the one hundred and twenty first up

950
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty four teams. They've had more penalties

951
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 2: than every other team except Prairie View. So that's just

952
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 2: one thing to keep in mind. But you are itching

953
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 2: to tell us why you like the governor, so have

954
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 2: at it.

955
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 3: Well, the Governors dominated the number three team in all

956
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: of FCS. We're talking outside of James Madison and North

957
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 3: Dakota State, Sack State, the Bees, which you know I've

958
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 3: won money on the last couple of years when they've

959
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 3: stepped up and played FBS competition. They took him to

960
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 3: the woodshed last week. So Austin P traveled all the

961
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: way from Tennessee out to California, landed in Sacramento Sack State.

962
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 3: Out of their their seven first half drives last week,

963
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 3: five of them ended in a three and out, another

964
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 3: drive ended in a four and out. They completely dominated

965
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: Sacramento State. This is the same Sacramento State team that

966
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: went in and gave a huge scare to Arizona State

967
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 3: earlier this season. So I mean, this is legitimately one

968
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 3: of the best offenses and defenses in the nation. And

969
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 3: Austin P has been on such a role lately that

970
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 3: they just went in and shut them down completely. So

971
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: this is your dark horse. This is your team that's

972
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 3: not getting enough mentioned. This is an Austin P team.

973
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: It's two years removed from a huge FCS run. They

974
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 3: lost our coach Will Healey to Charlotte. You can see

975
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 3: how good Charlotte is doing here. So there's a pedigree here.

976
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 3: They've done this before. Some of the senior players on

977
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 3: this team. You know, it's not like they're inexperienced. I

978
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 3: think that they've adopted a lot of things Heale was

979
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 3: running there and it's paying off for them. And you know,

980
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 3: I'm not really that worried in this game.

981
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 2: Now.

982
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: It's a different story about Illinois State. I'm not really

983
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: worried in this game about travel. So you got to

984
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 3: think about how they beat Sacramento State out in California.

985
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 3: Then they had to get to a remote place in

986
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 3: Tennessee on Sunday, and then this game is on a

987
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 3: Friday night, so they got to turn around and come

988
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,359
Speaker 3: back out to Montana State. So it has been quite

989
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 3: the miles that they're getting here on a short week,

990
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 3: and so it's not a fluke at all that they

991
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 3: beat Sacramento State. And I absolutely think they're gonna beat

992
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 3: Montana State here. I don't understand the line at six

993
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 3: and a half. Montana State, by s and P plus's

994
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 3: numbers is four, and by siren rating, Montana State should

995
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: be minus two. So the six and a half that's

996
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 3: out there right now doesn't make any sense to me.

997
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: I took a piece of it, put it on the

998
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: action app for those of you that are using the

999
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 3: Action app, because we had a lot of questions about

1000
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 3: this last year. If you go up to the top

1001
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 3: left where it says all fbs, just click on them,

1002
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 3: there'll be an all fcs and there's where all your

1003
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 3: FCS lines will be. So that's a good thing, you know,

1004
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: for people that are using the app. But I'm going

1005
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: to back them here. Very balanced offense and a great defense.

1006
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 2: Well, one thing to keep in mind that you haven't

1007
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 2: mentioned we can talk about you want to talk about dinosaurs,

1008
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 2: we could talk about dinosaurs. So for those who have

1009
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 2: been to Bozeman, Montana, which is where Montana State is,

1010
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 2: we'll get to Montana who's on the road, but they're

1011
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,959
Speaker 2: in Missoula, Montana, in Bozeman, which has a really cool

1012
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 2: dinosaur museum with like a bunch of t Rex skeletons there.

1013
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 2: It's it's pretty cool. But you know what else there

1014
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 2: is about Bozeman. It's in the Rocky Mountains elevation right

1015
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 2: around five thousand feet. You know. With the short week

1016
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: and the travel and out in California, that is something

1017
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: I'm potentially watching for second half bet So if your

1018
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 2: governor's up at the half, I may be looking to

1019
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 2: get in on the more well conditioned Montana State Bobcats

1020
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,239
Speaker 2: in the second half. And because I mean last week

1021
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 2: Montana State they won, they rolled at home forty seven

1022
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 2: to twenty one. So they stay at home, they stay

1023
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 2: in their elevation, they're used to it. Meanwhile, you just

1024
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: talked about Austin b and all that travel, so it

1025
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 2: could end up catching up to them late in this game.

1026
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 3: Clarksville, Tennessee, where Austin p is elevation of four hundred

1027
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 3: and seventy six feet. But no, I mean that strategy

1028
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 3: would have worked with Sacramento State a Sacramento State scored

1029
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 3: all their points after the first half. So yeah, it's

1030
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 3: definitely a good strategy all right.

1031
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: So that's what I'll be looking into there. Let's move

1032
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 2: on to the last game on Friday night. This is

1033
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 2: Montana at Weber State. These are two teams that are

1034
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: ten and three in the same conference. Weber State's a

1035
00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 2: two and a half point home dog. Keep in mind,

1036
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 2: Weber State two of the three losses came against FBS teams.

1037
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,879
Speaker 2: They played at Nevada, they had like one hundred total

1038
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 2: yards but barely lost. They just make games ugly. And

1039
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 2: then they played San Diego State, had one hundred and

1040
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 2: ten total yards. They lost six nothing only because they

1041
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: had a kickoff return called back for a touchdown. So

1042
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 2: those are two of their games that Montana also played Oregon,

1043
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: which was one of their losses. So this game will

1044
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 2: be played in Ogden, Utah, and you know it should

1045
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 2: be a really really speaking of elevation, Ogden, Utah's up

1046
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 2: there as well on four five thousand, But I don't

1047
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 2: think it's much of a concern with Montana and Weaver State.

1048
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 2: Montana their offense led by a quarterback, Dalton Sneed. He's

1049
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 2: now healthy. He was hurt midseason with an ankle injury,

1050
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: missed a couple of games. Their quarterback play is so

1051
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 2: much better in their passing attack than Weaver States. I

1052
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 2: mean Weber State with Jake Constantine, he has twelve touchdowns

1053
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 2: and ten picks on the air. He's outside the top

1054
00:46:56,800 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 2: seventy and pass efficiency in FCS, so they don't really

1055
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 2: have much of a passing attack. These are two good

1056
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 2: special teams teams as well. But when they met, they

1057
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: met earlier this year in Montana, and you know the

1058
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 2: conference was potentially on the line at the time. And

1059
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:17,879
Speaker 2: Montana absolutely rolled Weaver State. Now granted this was at home.

1060
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,320
Speaker 2: And the weird thing with Montana this year is some

1061
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 2: of their results away from home. They've played significantly better

1062
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 2: all year at home. And that was, you know, I

1063
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: mean last month, almost a month ago to the day,

1064
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 2: Montana won thirty five sixteen over Weaver State, just to

1065
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 2: throw that out there, you know. But then the next

1066
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 2: week they went to Montana State and they lost forty

1067
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 2: eight to fourteen. Then last week at home in the

1068
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 2: playoffs against SELA Southeast Louisiana, they won seventy three to

1069
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: twenty eight. So this offense is potent with Dalton Sneed,

1070
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 2: they have three really good receivers, they have good special teams,

1071
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 2: but the defense is really questionable. It's not a solid

1072
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 2: FCS defense, and they you know, they can get absolutely

1073
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: just destroyed by good offense. Is I'm not sure if

1074
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 2: Weaber State can necessarily take advantage. I just trust their

1075
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 2: quarterback in Dalton Steed in that offense so much more

1076
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 2: than Weaver. But Weaber Will just finds ways with their

1077
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 2: special teams with their defense to ugly up and muck

1078
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 2: up games and keep them close. Do you see anything here?

1079
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm actually leaning towards Weber. I haven't made a

1080
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 3: play on it yet, I think I am. I mean,

1081
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 3: it's at plus two. I'd love to see a plus three.

1082
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 3: Not sure which way this line's going to move. Sp

1083
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 3: plus has this barely in Montana's favor, would be like

1084
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 3: a minus one fifteen on the pick and the sagging

1085
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 3: rating is what Weber minus one. So the numbers relatively

1086
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 3: close to where the two projection systems are. And I

1087
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 3: think really the difference for me is that these are

1088
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 3: two of the best teams in the all of FCS

1089
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: as far as home field advantage goes. Trying to play

1090
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 3: in Missoula is tough. I mean, it's one of the

1091
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 3: toughest places in all of FCS to play. It's a

1092
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 3: site and I wish someday I could get up there

1093
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: and watch a game because it's a great game to experience.

1094
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 3: So the one thing that we really got a paid

1095
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: attention to, though, Like I do like Weber at home

1096
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 3: because they've been rolling people at home, So does that

1097
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 3: mean that I should take them because they're killing people

1098
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 3: at home and beat They beat Northern Iowa at home,

1099
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 3: they beat Sacramento, stayed at home they just beat eleven

1100
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 3: and three. Kennesaus stayed at home and Montana. You mentioned

1101
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 3: Montana's defense is a little bit questionable. They are eighty

1102
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 3: fifth in total defense in FCS. But quick check of

1103
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 3: the box score because the game we like to play

1104
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 3: on this podcast is box score fraud. So if you

1105
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 3: go and you look at Montana and we were their

1106
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 3: first go around, which happened in Missoula, it was a

1107
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 3: complete box score fraud.

1108
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 2: Now.

1109
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 3: I know Montana got up thirty five to three, but

1110
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 3: the Grizz. The Grizz scored their first four touchdowns of

1111
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 3: drives of four plays or less. I mean, it happened

1112
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 3: super fast. And there were four turnovers that Weber had

1113
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 3: just given up to Montana, three of them inside their

1114
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 3: own territory. Once was an interception when they got down

1115
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 3: in the red zone on the seven yard line, so

1116
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 3: Weaver kind of handed them in the game. I think

1117
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 3: if Weaver has a turnover free game, they're going to

1118
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 3: take advantage of the Montana's eighty fifth defense. So I'm

1119
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 3: leaning with Weber here, but I'd love to see it three. Yeah.

1120
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 2: Something to keep in mind is that with Weber state

1121
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 2: that I mean just constant team was just so poor.

1122
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just not that great, but he's probably

1123
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 2: gonna play a lot better at home. And he had

1124
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:10,880
Speaker 2: three picks and no touchdowns in that game. The backup

1125
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 2: came in up through two touchdowns. So yeah, it's a

1126
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: tough game to figure out with the home road splits

1127
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: of each team. So I gotta do a little more

1128
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 2: digging in that game. And obviously we're gonna have a

1129
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 2: big FCS preview up, so make sure you check out

1130
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 2: our updated thoughts and then any bets either there or

1131
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 2: on the Action app. All right, let's finish up with

1132
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 2: the loan game on Saturday at noon. Illinois State, who

1133
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 2: is ten and four on the year, at North Dakota State.

1134
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: North Dakota State is thirteen and oh they are twenty

1135
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 2: three point home favorites here at the Fargodom over under

1136
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 2: forty one. This game is Saturday at noon Eastern on ESPN.

1137
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: I mean, look, what else can we say about North

1138
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 2: Kota State? I mean their powerhouse. What are you want

1139
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 2: thirty four to thirty five straight games in a row?

1140
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 2: If what every game by double digits this year, It's

1141
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 2: ridiculously hard place to play. They have five turnovers on

1142
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 2: the entire year. Their quarterback who won the Jerry Rice

1143
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 2: Award with the best Player, he freshman Trey Lance. He

1144
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: twenty five passing touchdowns and no picks on the year.

1145
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 2: You know, Illinois State, their offense is ugly. They can't

1146
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 2: throw the ball number one, so their quarterback Brady Davis

1147
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 2: has nine touchdowns and nine picks on the year. Nine

1148
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: touchdowns and nine picks. Mitch Bortles level, so they're not

1149
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: going to do anything through the air. North Gonna State

1150
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 2: is the best secondary in all of FCS. But what

1151
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 2: Illinois State does do is they just pound it. They

1152
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: absolutely pound it with their star back James Robinson, and

1153
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 2: he's been on fire. I mean they've played and this

1154
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,479
Speaker 2: is something to note, they've already played two playoff games

1155
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,359
Speaker 2: on the road. This will be the third straight road game.

1156
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,720
Speaker 2: Not ideal, but James Robinson has carried the ball seventy

1157
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 2: eight times for over five hundred yards in the first

1158
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 2: two playoff games, so he's on fire. They were at

1159
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 2: Cimo and then in Conway in Central Arkansas where they

1160
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 2: didn't where they didn't drink, but Robinson went wild. But

1161
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 2: you know, here's North Dakota State can simply just stack

1162
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: the box and stop him, and Bray Davis isn't gonna

1163
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: beat him. They've played. This is a conference game. These

1164
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 2: teams are in the same conference. They played three times before,

1165
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: and Robinson has average about one hundred yards a game,

1166
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 2: which is still impressive, which is what you can probably

1167
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 2: expect him to get unless he somehow breaks a really

1168
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 2: long one when they played it. They played earlier this

1169
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: year in normal on the road at Illinois State. North

1170
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 2: Dakota State won thirty seven to three. Illinois State had

1171
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: two hundred total yards. So what Illinois State. Their offense

1172
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: is ugly. They just hand it off a ton, They

1173
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 2: just feed Robinson. They rely on their defense, which is

1174
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 2: forced thirty three turnovers. They have fifty sacks. They're also

1175
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 2: really good in the red zone. They're number one in

1176
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,879
Speaker 2: the country in red zone defense, and they're I think

1177
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 2: top five in red zone offense. That's Robinson, but I

1178
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 2: don't think you could slow down this North Dakota State

1179
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 2: offense in the red zone. And they don't turn it

1180
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 2: over and they don't give up sacks. It's just a

1181
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 2: horrible matchup for Illinois State. I'm thinking of laying in here,

1182
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 2: especially in the third straight road game. It's just tough

1183
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 2: to see. All North Kota State has to do is

1184
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 2: take away Robinson and I mean, this is the best

1185
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 2: team in FCS at home. What do you see here?

1186
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, James Robinson eighteen hundred yards on the season. He

1187
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 3: is a machine. But the problem is that's all that

1188
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 3: Illinois State has. They are one dimensional to the max,

1189
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 3: and really they're you can't do this to North Dakota State.

1190
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: They're just too good to They're too good to fall

1191
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 3: to some team who only has just a running game

1192
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 3: with one running back. It's easy to key on that

1193
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 3: guy and have multiple defenders ready to go. Now, the

1194
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 3: number I think is too high, but there's a reason

1195
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 3: for that. Illinois State Stuck mentioned that, you know playoff

1196
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 3: game being on the road. Well, if you go back

1197
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,840
Speaker 3: to the regular season, this is actually Illinois State's fourth

1198
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:48,239
Speaker 3: straight road game. They've not had a bye week, so

1199
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 3: that's September twenty eighth. These players have not had a

1200
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 3: week off since September and this is their fourth straight

1201
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 3: road game. So we can talk about how James Robinson's

1202
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 3: probably one of the best running backs all of FCS,

1203
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 3: but the gas is coming out of it got to

1204
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 3: be out of the tank. We got to be running

1205
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 3: on e here after you know, beating Simo in Central Arkansas.

1206
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 3: Now we're back on the road again, up to the

1207
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 3: Fargo Dome and another thing to look at. Why I mean,

1208
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 3: and the number is inflated, but North Dakota State is

1209
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,319
Speaker 3: thirtieth and rush defense not like previous season, so they

1210
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: have tailed off a little bit in rush defense being thirtieth,

1211
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,399
Speaker 3: but they're third best in the nation and limiting red

1212
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: zone rush tds. They've only allowed five the entire season,

1213
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,800
Speaker 3: So I'm not sure how Illinois State, how the Redbirds

1214
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 3: are going to score their touchdowns through their main guy

1215
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 3: when the Bison have only allowed five all season on

1216
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 3: the ground. So you know, North Dakota State had a

1217
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,840
Speaker 3: buyo on November thirtieth, so they're fresh. This is a

1218
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 3: game that I'm going to be staying away from because

1219
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 3: I think the number is over the projections of sagar

1220
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: and at minus twenty two over the s and P

1221
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:50,840
Speaker 3: plus projection at minus sixteen and a half. I wouldn't

1222
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 3: mind taking in Illinois State first half because it's going

1223
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 3: to have a ton of value considering everybody's going to

1224
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 3: be on North Dakota State and the fact that Illinois

1225
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,399
Speaker 3: State should run out of gas here and completely peter out.

1226
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: So you know, the road travel, the one dimensional offense,

1227
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 3: it's going to catch up with them in the second half.

1228
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 3: I would definitely play North Dakota State in the second

1229
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,320
Speaker 3: half whatever the spread is, and I would like to

1230
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 3: take Illinois State in the first half. But I'm gonna

1231
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 3: wait and see what the number is because those numbers

1232
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 3: aren't posted yet.

1233
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 2: Fair enough. Yeah, it's just it's a terrible spot here

1234
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 2: and in North Dakota State just loves to cover these

1235
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 2: games and it is just absolute looney. Been there. It's

1236
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:28,360
Speaker 2: a really tough place to play. So the place will be.

1237
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 3: Rocking until Austin comes in the Governess.

1238
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 2: Much more on FCS next week and then on the

1239
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 2: championship when we get there. But before we get out

1240
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 2: of here, let's go three and out.

1241
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:45,399
Speaker 3: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

1242
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:51,160
Speaker 2: First down. Let's start with some confidence pool talk, and

1243
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 2: I'll let you start just give a little background, not

1244
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,880
Speaker 2: on confidence bools, but just how you approach it and

1245
00:55:56,960 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 2: then where you're going.

1246
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, with a confidence pool, you're going to

1247
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 3: want to back schemes coaches and players where you have

1248
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 3: stability and you know it's something that hasn't changed because

1249
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 3: this is the time of year where there's moving parts

1250
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 3: with every single team, for instance, like Penn State losing

1251
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 3: their offensive coordinators. Say what you want about Ricky Rain.

1252
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 3: I don't know who's calling the places for Penn State, right,

1253
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:20,879
Speaker 3: So I mean that's a variable that you would want

1254
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 3: to throw out at least when you are ranking your

1255
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 3: confidence pools, like from one up to say forty or however, know,

1256
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 3: if you've got the Celebration Bowl in there, you want

1257
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 3: as many stable constants as possible. You have to read

1258
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 3: the market. It's it's not as simple as saying, well,

1259
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 3: I just like this team and they're heavily favored by seventeen.

1260
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 3: That's there's still a chance to be beat. Ask Eastern

1261
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 3: Michigan against pitt I mean, they're asking Luisiana Tech against Miami.

1262
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 3: So you know that for me, I need a constant

1263
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 3: stable in the players, the coaches, the schemes, everything, and

1264
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 3: a motivation to want to be in the Bowl. We'll

1265
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 3: have this written up next Tuesday, next Wednesday, so be

1266
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 3: looking out for. But I know teams that I am

1267
00:56:57,400 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 3: going to pick in instead of just saying, yeah, we're

1268
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:01,879
Speaker 3: going to take Florida in this spot in the Orange Bowl.

1269
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with some teams that are just

1270
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 3: barely favored, and then one team that is actually a dog.

1271
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 3: The first one's going to be Iowa against USC. Iowa

1272
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 3: is going to be placed pretty high in my confidence pool,

1273
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 3: even though they're only a minus two if you check

1274
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 3: out practice reports, like USC hadn't even figured out when

1275
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: they were going to start practice, They didn't have a

1276
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:22,959
Speaker 3: practice plan, they were focusing on recruiting. He kept his job.

1277
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 3: The players have finals. I don't think they even started

1278
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 3: their first practice till yesterday. I mean recording this on Thursday.

1279
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 3: I think they just started their first practice. Kirk Ferentz

1280
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 3: started practicing the second the game was over against Nebraska.

1281
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 3: If you dig a little bit deeper on Iowa, they

1282
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 3: have played an air raid before. They took on Mason

1283
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 3: Fine two years ago, came up to Kinnick. They had

1284
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 3: no problems beating him thirty one to fourteen. Shut down

1285
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:48,960
Speaker 3: the air raid, and if you look at Ferens's postgame comments,

1286
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:52,560
Speaker 3: he said, it's just like Iowa State. It's an option

1287
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 3: attack through the air it's an you know, we're familiar

1288
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 3: with the air raid because it's a version of what

1289
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 3: Iowa State runs. And by the way, Matt Campbell has

1290
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 3: not beaten Kirk Ferince yet. I was going to be

1291
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 3: way up there. They're going to be well more prepared

1292
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 3: and they're going to have no problems with the air raid.

1293
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 3: They're going to be up there in North Carolina is

1294
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 3: on my list. Like I said, I want a consistent

1295
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 3: in coaches. I want a team that wants to be

1296
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 3: in the Bowl, and I need a bunch of players,

1297
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: a really young roster, juniors in below that are coming

1298
00:58:20,320 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 3: back next year and want to make a statement. I

1299
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 3: get all of that with North Carolina. They were dying

1300
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:26,280
Speaker 3: to be in a bowl and got Mac Brown to

1301
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 3: their first one. That roster is loaded with underclassmen, and

1302
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:32,439
Speaker 3: they're taking on a Temple team that has a coach

1303
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 3: that's never won a Bowl. So there's that, all right.

1304
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 3: So the dog I'll get to and I'll let you

1305
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 3: have at it is Eastern Michigan. Chris Creighton is a

1306
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 3: great coach. So besides them being eleven point underdogs, I'll

1307
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 3: talk more about the pit side. Nardoozi and the players

1308
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 3: wanted nothing to do with this Bowl, with this Quick

1309
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 3: Lane Bowl whatsoever. You go back a month ago when

1310
00:58:52,720 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 3: they were healthy with French and they were actually a

1311
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,560
Speaker 3: contender in the Coastal, they were talking about Orange Bowl.

1312
00:58:57,760 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 3: When their hopes got dashed about an Orange Bowl, it

1313
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: was all all about Tier one and the ACC. If

1314
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 3: you don't know this about the ACC, they fight like

1315
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 3: cats and dogs about the replacement of the bulls and

1316
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 3: who hoped to So once they didn't make the Orange

1317
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,600
Speaker 3: Bowl they had they were told that they were probably

1318
00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 3: going to get the Military Bowl. I think they were

1319
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 3: told by their ad like, hey, we were going to

1320
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 3: get into the Military Bowl. And then there was an

1321
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 3: option that they'd get in the pin Stray bulll so

1322
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 3: nor Doozy could take on his old boss, the Antonio

1323
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 3: for Michigan State. None of that happened. They ended up

1324
00:59:26,560 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 3: in the in the Quick Lane Bowl the day after

1325
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 3: Christmas against Eastern Michigan. Pitt doesn't want to be there

1326
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 3: at all. So Eastern Michigan is going to be in

1327
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 3: my confidence pool. It's going to be a low number

1328
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 3: on the confidence but it's one of the dogs that

1329
00:59:38,160 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 3: I'm taking that.

1330
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 2: Was very good. It's gonna be much more fairer than mine.

1331
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 2: I'll just say, I mean, I don't do these as

1332
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 2: a serious investment. They're more for fun. I've put some

1333
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 2: time into it. But one of the things I like

1334
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 2: to do is put a lot of my most confident picks.

1335
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 2: Unless I really love something, you know, I don't care

1336
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 2: when it is, but I'll put a lot of my

1337
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 2: most confidence picks towards the end. So like, no matter what,

1338
00:59:57,560 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 2: like you know, we come up on December thirty first,

1339
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 2: even if I had a slow start, I still can say,

1340
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: you know, when we send out updates on the pool,

1341
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 2: if I sweep everything, I win, right, So like I

1342
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 2: like to stay alive for as long as Puss was.

1343
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 2: Its supposed to be fun and entertaining. So I could

1344
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 2: already tell you UL my raging Cajun's they'll be my

1345
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 2: most confident pick. Like I know a lot of people

1346
01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 2: have the seventeen point favorites and UCF, which is fine,

1347
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: but UL is the last game. It's on January sixth.

1348
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 2: They'll be my most confident pick for sure. And then

1349
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 2: you know, I'll probably take some shots on New Year's

1350
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 2: Eve in New Year's Day with some dogs and Florida

1351
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 2: also will be up there. I cannot see any world

1352
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:38,440
Speaker 2: where Virginia beats Florida, you know, And I trusted Mullen

1353
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:41,200
Speaker 2: to get that team ready and they should just shred

1354
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 2: to Virginia secondary. But you know, if you're looking for

1355
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 2: a couple shots, I've already talked at and I was

1356
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 2: about Texas who might be worth a shot and then

1357
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 2: potentially bailor. Those are games on December thirty first, in

1358
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 2: January first against teams that I don't necessarily know really

1359
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 2: want to be there. Right. You have Georgia and Utah

1360
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 2: who were potentially fighting for the last playoff spot up

1361
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,919
Speaker 2: till the last day of the regular season. Now they're

1362
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 2: not there. So those are two, you know, underdogs that

1363
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to have in a straight up up there.

1364
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 2: Confidence wise, I like them all.

1365
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 3: I agree with them, and I really like to punt

1366
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 3: on bigger points until you know, the until closer to

1367
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 3: the end of bowl season. I don't think you should

1368
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 3: be putting a whole bunch of confidence points in the

1369
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 3: first weekend.

1370
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely not the Celebration Bowl either. All right, so

1371
01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 2: let's move on to second down here. I'll just throw

1372
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 2: this to you a couple of bowl totals. You have

1373
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:35,440
Speaker 2: your eyes on.

1374
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 3: Keep your eyes on the Wazoo Air Force cheeze A bowl.

1375
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 3: The total of sixty seven I projected actually lower, but

1376
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter because I went deep dive air Force

1377
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 3: cannot take care of the air raid. And then I

1378
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 3: went deep into the interim look for the write up

1379
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 3: on Action Network, but I went deep into the interim

1380
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 3: defensive coordinator for Washington State who was formerly at Buffalo

1381
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 3: and he was torn apart by two triple option offenses

1382
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 3: last year. Miami LA Tech. Look for the under there.

1383
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 3: These are Christmas post Christmas Day unders Miami LA Tech.

1384
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 3: Miami's motivation is zero. Don't expect a lot of points there,

1385
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 3: Pitt Eastern Michigan. Everything that I just talked about there

1386
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 3: under Remember these players have to be in these cities

1387
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:22,200
Speaker 3: during Christmas Day and so do their families. So I

1388
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 3: just don't see a lot of points being scored in

1389
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 3: those events like it.

1390
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Wazus is what the heaviest pass team

1391
01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 2: in the nation, and air Force can't stop the past,

1392
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:33,440
Speaker 2: and air Force is the heaviest run team and Wazoo

1393
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 2: can't stop the run. So yeah, it's up for a

1394
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:39,560
Speaker 2: big time over and then they're down before we get

1395
01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 2: out of here. How about just one or two coaching

1396
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 2: or player news updates and we'll have these obviously for

1397
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 2: every single specific bowl when we do those previews. But

1398
01:02:48,840 --> 01:02:49,640
Speaker 2: where do you want to go here?

1399
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:52,000
Speaker 3: One is a fact and two are rumors that are

1400
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 3: that are being started by me. But you know the

1401
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 3: fact that I have is that app State is named

1402
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 3: Sean Clark. He is confirmed as the head coach for

1403
01:02:58,320 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 3: the Mountaineers. He was around in the Sadderfield days that

1404
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 3: entire administration. He was there for drinkquitz, and now he

1405
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 3: has been promoted to head coach. I think that only

1406
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 3: helps Appalachi State in their return to a bowl that

1407
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 3: they played in last year with an interim coach and

1408
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:15,200
Speaker 3: still one and covered against Middle Tennessee. The other two.

1409
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 3: Just keep your eyes on the NFL, keep your eyes

1410
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys coaching situation, keep your eyes in other

1411
01:03:20,840 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: places because Matt rule is long respected from all NFL

1412
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 3: general managers and owners about coming in and being a

1413
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:30,680
Speaker 3: head coach. Someday their bowl game is scheduled to happen.

1414
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 3: I think after, you know, right after the end of

1415
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 3: the NFL season, so keep your eyes on the on

1416
01:03:35,840 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 3: what's going on with Matt Ruhle as far as Baylor

1417
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 3: and as far as him taking an NFL job, and

1418
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 3: then Napier. Listen, not all of I know you like

1419
01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 3: lo and I like him too, but their bowl game

1420
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 3: is January sixth. There are still open vacant positions on

1421
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 3: the FBS level, and these things can happen like Domino's

1422
01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:53,840
Speaker 3: and Billy Napier's name is going to continue to get

1423
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 3: thrown around all the time, So just keep your eyars

1424
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 3: open for some of these vacant positions that are going

1425
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,640
Speaker 3: to get filled, because Billion Napier is always going to

1426
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 3: be at the top of some AD's list of coming

1427
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 3: into interview for a job.

1428
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 2: Perfect. Yeah, we'll have so much more of that all

1429
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 2: our Bowl previews upcoming podcast episodes. So thanks for joining me, Colin,

1430
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: Thanks again to John Murray, Thanks everyone for listening. We'll

1431
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 2: be back on Monday morning with a recap of the weekend.

1432
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 2: We're also going to do some NFL futures talk, so

1433
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:25,400
Speaker 2: tune in for that NFL recap. By the way, rate review,

1434
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 2: subscribe to a friend you know the deal, leave a

1435
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:32,000
Speaker 2: review with the words dinosaur museum, dinosaur museum in there.

1436
01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 2: If there's a couple of you, I'll put it in

1437
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 2: a raffle and we'll send you stuff. And Colin and

1438
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 2: I are going to have a Bowl contest coming winner,

1439
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 2: maybe comes out to the National Championship. Just get the

1440
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 2: Vegas drink for free, hang out with us. More to

1441
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:46,760
Speaker 2: come on that. So thanks for listening again and we'll

1442
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 2: catch you all later.

1443
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:58,080
Speaker 3: Cheers, peace out, We're finished talking.