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Speaker 1: It's time to get inside the Giants. Hunt's let's go.

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Speaker 2: Let's go Giants, Dont come get out my Giants mobile,

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Speaker 2: give me some job.

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Speaker 1: Part of the Giants Podcast Network. Let's roll.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to another edition of The Giants Little Podcast, brought

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Speaker 2: to you by Citizens, the official bank of the New

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Speaker 2: York Football Giants. I've been reading our guest work today

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Speaker 2: for a very long time. He does a fantastic job,

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Speaker 2: and I'm thrilled to finally have him on the show.

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Speaker 2: He's the author of many a Football Almanac's the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four version is out. He is Aaron Shatz, the

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Speaker 2: creator of DVOA and of a lot of other awesome

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Speaker 2: metrics that we now use in the analytics world of

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Speaker 2: the National Football League. Aaron, Welcome to The Giants Little Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much for being with us.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having me. And I should

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Speaker 3: point out one of the authors. There's a lot of

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Speaker 3: folks who write for the Football Almanac. I'm the editor

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Speaker 3: and I do all the numbers and the projections. But

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Speaker 3: there's some great writers too, like Mike Tanear and Brian

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Speaker 3: Knowles and Scott Spratt and Dan Pezuda and just a

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Speaker 3: whole lineage of good people.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I always talked to Mike. Mike Danier.

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Speaker 2: I think he wrote the Giants chapter actually Giants chapter. Yeah, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and I always chat with him. He always goes out

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Speaker 2: to the combine every year. We always have good conversations

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Speaker 2: when he's out there. All right, now, so first of all,

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Speaker 2: tell the people about the book where they can find that,

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Speaker 2: and then also where they can find DVOA, and.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll kind of get into what that means for people.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Sure, you can find our book.

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Speaker 3: Either the physical book with Travis Kelce on the cover

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Speaker 3: is at FTN. Is that sorry as Amazon? Search for

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Speaker 3: FTN Football Almanac at Amazon twenty twenty four or if

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Speaker 3: you go to Ftnfantasy dot Com Slash Almanac you can

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Speaker 3: get the online pdf version. Now you get a discount

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Speaker 3: on the pdf version if you are a subscriber to FTN,

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Speaker 3: and being a subscriber to FTN gets you all of

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Speaker 3: the DVOA splits during the season, all the player DVOA

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Speaker 3: and d YAUR stats during the season, plus our new

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Speaker 3: stats hub, which is going to be really awesome.

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Speaker 4: We're going to have.

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Speaker 3: Updated DVOA during the season with charting filters. So you

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Speaker 3: can get like, for example, which teams play the most

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Speaker 3: man coverage, who has the best DVOA in man coverage,

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Speaker 3: Who has the best DVOA against blitzes? Like all times

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Speaker 3: of stuff. It's gonna be updated weekly during the season.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I subscribe to that, folks. That is invaluable. All right, Aaron,

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Speaker 2: So let's start you. I want to start at the

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Speaker 2: basis before we get into Giants specific stuff. I always

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Speaker 2: reference DVOA I talk to fans about. I think it's

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Speaker 2: one of the best metrics to use in terms of

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Speaker 2: determining how well on offense and defense is playing.

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Speaker 1: So why don't you explain for fans without getting.

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Speaker 2: Into too much math, how you put it together and

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Speaker 2: what makes it superior to maybe some of the traditional

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Speaker 2: stats that fans might normally use to figure out what

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Speaker 2: they think might need a good offense or a good defense.

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Speaker 3: Base sure, simple version is it gives success on every

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Speaker 3: play based on the down and distance right three yards

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Speaker 3: on second and one good, three yards on third and

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Speaker 3: ten bad. Compares it to a league average baseline, which

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Speaker 3: is adjusted for a situation and opponent, and it's tweaked

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Speaker 3: to specifically be predictive. So one of the reasons why

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Speaker 3: it's really good is that it judges for context. It

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Speaker 3: tries to filter out context. It tries to filter out

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Speaker 3: some of the things that are more random, like fumble

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Speaker 3: recoveries or you know, it doesn't count field goals against

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Speaker 3: you like I mean, like when you look at the score.

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Speaker 3: It counts things like you know, you have no control

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Speaker 3: over how many field goals the other team kicks against

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Speaker 3: you unless you block it. You have no control if

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Speaker 3: that thing's going through or not. Right, So, uh, it

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Speaker 3: filters out things like that and gives you a better

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Speaker 3: idea that can then be split into different like which

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Speaker 3: teams are best on first, second, and third down, which

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Speaker 3: teams are best in the red zone. And we know

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Speaker 3: that certain things regress regress to the mean from year

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Speaker 3: to year, which gives us more ability to predict the future.

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Speaker 3: So that's GVOA does all those things.

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Speaker 1: So for you, what are the things that you consider

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Speaker 1: the most random that you like to filter out, and

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Speaker 1: then what aspects of a team's to your most predictive

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Speaker 1: and which ones are least predictive.

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Speaker 3: Well, one that I just mentioned is opposing special teams. Right,

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Speaker 3: For example, you have no control over the opposing kickoff distance,

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Speaker 3: although everything with kickoffs gets different this year, and no

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Speaker 3: control over opposing field goals. Giants actually last year had

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Speaker 3: the league's best luck on opposing field goals, with opposing

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Speaker 3: kickers missing seven field goals, one of which was blocked.

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Speaker 3: So the Giants do have control over that and four

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Speaker 3: extra points and they're not going to be that lucky

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Speaker 3: this year. Things like fumble recovery, things like the fact

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Speaker 3: that turnovers in general are just more random than yards.

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Speaker 3: Like yards per play allowed are more.

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Speaker 4: Predictive of the future over than takeaways.

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Speaker 2: Which, by the way, given the Giants led the league

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Speaker 2: in takeaways last year, that could also be significant.

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Speaker 3: There is a little bit that is a little bit significant.

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Speaker 3: So although if you look at takeaways per they were

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Speaker 3: not They had a lot of drives against them, which

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Speaker 3: is why they had a lot of takeaways, but takeaways

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Speaker 3: per drive they were something like ten, which also will

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Speaker 3: regress a little bit, but not quite as much.

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Speaker 1: That's what happens on your offenses punting all the time,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Right, So.

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Speaker 3: Third, a red zone performance is another one that's interesting.

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Speaker 3: So red zone performance tends to regress over time towards

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Speaker 3: your overall performance, which I've always thought was a really

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Speaker 3: interesting conundrum for coaches. Let's say you're a coach and

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Speaker 3: you believe in analytics, and I go to you and

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Speaker 3: I say, red zone performance is much less stable than

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Speaker 3: other performance. Does that mean that a you should practice

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Speaker 3: the red zone less because it's less stable and therefore

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Speaker 3: you're not going to ever perfect it, so just accept

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Speaker 3: that it's less stable and practice other plays, or do

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Speaker 3: you practice the red zone more and try to basically

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Speaker 3: beat the unstableness. And I don't know the answer to

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Speaker 3: that question, but it's a really interesting question for a

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Speaker 3: coach who's faced with what analytics has discovered over the

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Speaker 3: last twenty years.

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Speaker 1: How about third downs?

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Speaker 3: Aaron is obviously also a little bit more, although it's

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Speaker 3: not When we first started, we thought third.

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Speaker 4: Downs were very inconsistent.

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Speaker 3: It turns out that on offense in particular, they're more

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Speaker 3: consistent than we originally thought, but not as consistent as

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Speaker 3: overall performance. So a team that's really good on first

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Speaker 3: and second and bad on third will tend to improve

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Speaker 3: the next year. And here's another negative for the Giants.

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Speaker 3: The Giants last year on defense twenty seventh, on first

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Speaker 3: eighteenth on second and fourth on third, that's going to

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Speaker 3: tend to regress.

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Speaker 4: From year to year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, and by the way, red zone and third downs,

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Speaker 2: as you well know, those are two of the things

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Speaker 2: that teams really do focus on in them in practice.

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Speaker 2: So I think the way they're taking it as all right,

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Speaker 2: more randomness to it, right.

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Speaker 3: So right, but we can beat the random wars right

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Speaker 3: the way coaches would tend to think, I think is

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Speaker 3: we can beat the randomness by just practicing this more.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know, by the way, I have no

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Speaker 3: idea if they're right or if they're wrong. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to criticize them for it.

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Speaker 2: No, absolutely not. And those plays are obviously some of

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Speaker 2: the most important, especially the red zone, but that's.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, hugely important.

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Speaker 3: But that's the thing is that the since the results

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Speaker 3: of third downs in red zones vary more widely and

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Speaker 3: they're really important, like the results the teams have are

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Speaker 3: very dependent on those situations, which are less consistent, So

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Speaker 3: that makes it harder to predict the future.

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Speaker 2: A couple other things I want to touch on here

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Speaker 2: before we get to the Giants. Specifically, we know how

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Speaker 2: it's now passing the league in passing has much more

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Speaker 2: predictive of scoring and success and rushing is How important

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Speaker 2: is rushing DVOA aaron to a team's overall success and

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Speaker 2: how much specifically does it impact red zone success? Because

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Speaker 2: it is hard to pass in the red zone, there's

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Speaker 2: less space, you feel like you should be the run

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Speaker 2: better in there becomes more important. So how does rushing

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Speaker 2: DVL effect generally how you evaluate these teams?

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Speaker 3: I don't think red zone as much as I think

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Speaker 3: short yardage. Okay, if I ran a team, what would

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Speaker 3: be most important to me about the running game would

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Speaker 3: be getting it right in short yard would be being

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Speaker 3: the Philadelphia right.

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Speaker 4: Okay, right?

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Speaker 3: Like that is the one place where rushing is more

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Speaker 3: efficient than passing is short yardage one or two yards

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Speaker 3: to go, and I would want to be really good

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Speaker 3: running the ball in those situations. Otherwise, it is very

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Speaker 3: rare for a good offense to be more efficient running

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Speaker 3: the ball than passing the ball. For bad offenses, they

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Speaker 3: are often more efficient running the ball than passing the

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Speaker 3: ball because their passing is so negative. Right, But it

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Speaker 3: is very rare for a good offense to be more

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Speaker 3: efficient running all right, twoe or false.

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Speaker 1: Two of the most important hearts to being a high

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Speaker 1: scoring offense is limiting sacks and explosive plays.

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Speaker 3: Yes, very true, although again, explosive plays I don't think

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Speaker 3: quite have the consistency of consistently moving the chains. Our

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Speaker 3: DVOA is a little biased, I think towards moving the

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Speaker 3: change rather than explosive plays, in part because explosive plays

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Speaker 3: are often all the same, no matter how explosive they are.

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Speaker 3: In other words, the difference between a fifty yard touchdown

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Speaker 3: pass and a seventy yard touchdown pass is often just

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Speaker 3: what was the line of scrimmage right right? That fifty

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Speaker 3: yard touchdown pass often would be a seventy yard touchdown

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Speaker 3: pass if the dude had just started twenty yards earlier.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 3: So we lessens as the yardage goes up, we lessen

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Speaker 3: the value of the plays a little bit, and so

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Speaker 3: that ends up biasing things, I think properly biasing things

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Speaker 3: a little bit more towards the ability to move the

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Speaker 3: chains being more predictive than the ability to get explosive plays.

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Speaker 4: But explosive plays.

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Speaker 3: Are huguely important and preventing sacks you do not want

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Speaker 3: to be in second and eighteen. And by the way,

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Speaker 3: that's a hidden thing that we don't talk about much

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Speaker 3: is the yardage on the sacks. You don't want to

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Speaker 3: be in second and eighteen, but if you had to choose,

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Speaker 3: you would rather be in second and twelve than second

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Speaker 3: and eighteen. Those are both sacks. You got sacked on

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Speaker 3: first down both times, but second and twelve is an

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Speaker 3: easier down than second and eighteen.

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Speaker 2: And I imagine you're a big adherent too. Even though

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Speaker 2: obviously better to be in third and four than third

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Speaker 2: and eight, it's much better to probably try to avoid

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Speaker 2: being in third down at all, trying to get the

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Speaker 2: first down on first or second down.

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Speaker 3: Mike Lombardi used this term once, and I really like it.

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Speaker 3: You want to have a CFL mindset. There are no

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Speaker 3: third downs.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I like that.

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Speaker 3: A CFL mindset is the only third down is third

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Speaker 3: and one. Everything else you want you want to convert

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Speaker 3: in two downs. Unless you can get to third and one,

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Speaker 3: you want to convert in two downs.

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Speaker 1: That's very good. I love it.

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Speaker 2: Football season is coming, and so is the next college semester.

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Speaker 2: If you need funding, a citizen student alone could help

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Speaker 2: you pay for one hundred percent of your school Certify costs.

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Speaker 2: Get your rate corn in about two minutes at citizensbank

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Speaker 2: dot com slash pay for College. You know Aaron reading

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Speaker 2: through your Giants chapter understandably, So you guys are a

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Speaker 2: little rough on the performance last year, especially offensively, and

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Speaker 2: if you watch the games, I understand why you would be.

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Speaker 2: The metrics aren't great. They had trouble scoring a lot

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Speaker 2: of points, three different quarterbacks, the offensive line was banged

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Speaker 2: up to all hell couldn't protect early in the season specifically,

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Speaker 2: but you do put a kind of a little of

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Speaker 2: a window together for how the team can turn it

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Speaker 2: around and be better this year before we get there

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Speaker 2: some of the offseason stuff overall. Thoughts on deciding to

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Speaker 2: let Sakuon Barthley go and use that money elsewhere.

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Speaker 3: Two things I'm going to start off First is I

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Speaker 3: have not watched hard, so I will be honest about that.

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Speaker 3: Second is I am more of a fan of Joe

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Speaker 3: Shane and Brian dabol than Mike.

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Speaker 4: Is, who wrote the chapter.

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Speaker 3: I look at the things that Joe Shane has done

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Speaker 3: and I feel like a lot of them made sense

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Speaker 3: individually and they just have not worked out in the collective.

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Speaker 3: And day boll I voted for Coach of the Year

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Speaker 3: two years ago, and I don't think he suddenly forgot

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Speaker 3: how to coach last year. I think that there's a

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Speaker 3: real talent discrepancy with this team.

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Speaker 4: But I think day.

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Speaker 3: Boll is a better coach than I think Mike believes

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Speaker 3: that he is. I think letting Saquon Barkley go made

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Speaker 3: total sense. The fact is, second running back contracts are

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Speaker 3: almost always a bad idea. There are a few running

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Speaker 3: backs who moved the needle, but very few really do.

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Speaker 3: Barkley might be one of those, but do you really

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Speaker 3: want to pay through the nose in order to find

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Speaker 3: out if he is, especially given where the Giants are

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Speaker 3: on the you know, the curve of how you build

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Speaker 3: a team, like on the team building curve, I mean Philadelphia.

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Speaker 4: We'll get to this a little later.

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Speaker 3: I think Philadelphia is not as high up on the

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Speaker 3: team building curve as I think people believe they are

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Speaker 3: right now. But I understand that in their minds they're

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Speaker 3: getting they are Super Bowl contenders, So let's add a

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Speaker 3: Let's add a top running back who can really be

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Speaker 3: active in our receiving game. The Giants are not at

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Speaker 3: that point, so they they need to be spending their

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Speaker 3: money on things like edge Rushers not you know something

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Speaker 3: that's a bit of a luxury item, which is a

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Speaker 3: second contract running.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, I was going to touch on

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Speaker 2: birds when we got to the defense, but since you

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Speaker 2: brought it up, what are your overall thoughts when you

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Speaker 2: talk about team building, Aaron, I think you just made

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Speaker 2: the point. You want to get Edge Rusher's premium position, right.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on having to use draft capital

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Speaker 2: in addition to spending big money on a contract for acquiring.

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Speaker 1: A guy like that.

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Speaker 2: I'm always one that's hesitant to do that, but I

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Speaker 2: also understand for a position like Edge, generally you can't

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Speaker 2: acquire those guys in free agency.

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Speaker 1: You either have to draft them really high.

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Speaker 2: So what are your thoughts on the process and how

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Speaker 2: they went about trying to get Brian Burns.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the same thing goes through Montes Sweat with

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Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears. It I understand the idea, it's still

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Speaker 3: I'm really I'm not really positive on using draft capital

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Speaker 3: and then giving a top level contract.

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Speaker 4: That is a lot of capital to spend. When you use.

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Speaker 3: Draft capital on a position and then you give a

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Speaker 3: top level contract, the only way that that player can

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Speaker 3: be worth what you spent on him is if he

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Speaker 3: is one of the top players at his position. And

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Speaker 3: I don't mean Brian Burns can be a top fifteen

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Speaker 3: edge rusher. I mean Brian Burns is only worth it

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Speaker 3: if he is a top five edge rusher.

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Speaker 1: Nick Bosa, Michael Parsons, that level of players.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And the fact is Burns is not in that class,

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Speaker 3: or has not been previously in that class.

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Speaker 4: He's a little bit below that class not. You know.

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Speaker 3: That is not to criticize him as a player. He's

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Speaker 3: a very good player. But only a couple of guys

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Speaker 3: can be the top couple guys, right, That's how top

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Speaker 3: couple guys works. And I mean this is not as

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Speaker 3: bad as giving up draft capital and a major contract

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Speaker 3: for a strong safety like Seattle did when they traded

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Speaker 3: for Jamal Adams, which everyone in the analytics world completely

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Speaker 3: destroyed them for. But it is a when you give

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Speaker 3: that contract and the draft capitol, it's tough. That's why

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Speaker 3: a lot of players who get traded don't get traded

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Speaker 3: for as much draft capital as you would expect, because

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Speaker 3: if you're gonna have to give them that cop contract too,

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Speaker 3: you don't want to give up a first round pick

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Speaker 3: for Brandon Ayuk.

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Speaker 2: Right, because you can say a right, Well, if you

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Speaker 2: don't make that trade or acquire that player, you can

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Speaker 2: then spend that money on one or two other players,

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Speaker 2: and then you get the draft pick too, which would

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Speaker 2: be a top of the second round player. So theoretically,

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Speaker 2: you know, you could get a you know, multiple gap.

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Speaker 3: And I know people use that family guy meme of

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Speaker 3: sure we have a boat, but that box could be anything,

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Speaker 3: even a boat, but with a draft pick, that's not

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Speaker 3: what it is with the draft pickets. Sure we have

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Speaker 3: an expensive boat, but that box could be anything, even

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Speaker 3: a cheap boat. Like, yes, you're asking with a draft

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Speaker 3: pick to get the same as the really good player,

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Speaker 3: but you'd be getting that for much cheaper.

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Speaker 5: You're ready for a change. Pay Day comes early with citizens,

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Speaker 5: So go to that retreat. Knew you move to the country.

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Speaker 5: Now you're raising goats and launching a lifestyle brand. Are

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Speaker 5: you ready for all that life brings?

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Speaker 3: All?

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Speaker 2: Right? Since on the defense, why why don't we stick

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Speaker 2: with this? When you look at teams and their defensive DVOA,

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Speaker 2: the Giants have clearly made the bet that we're going

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Speaker 2: to create a very good defensive front here right paid

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Speaker 2: Dexter Lawrence. We talked about the Burns transaction drafted to

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Speaker 2: Keavon Thibbadau in the top ten three years ago. They're

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Speaker 2: betting on their defensive front to carry this defense with

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Speaker 2: a very young secondary.

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Speaker 3: Can I just say, does Cathon Thibodeau get a little

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Speaker 3: bit more crap than he deserves.

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Speaker 2: Or what I think he does, especially after year where

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Speaker 2: he had doubled jud sacks and I know his pressure

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Speaker 2: rate and stuff like that maybe didn't coincide with the

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Speaker 2: sack number, but I gest pressures.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he had a really good season and he gets

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Speaker 3: a lot of nonsense.

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Speaker 1: No, I agree, And by the way, he even looks better.

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Speaker 2: And he he had his way with Taylor decler against

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Speaker 2: the Lions in practice this past week, so he's even

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Speaker 2: looked better to be honest with.

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Speaker 4: You, So sorry, go on with what you were saying

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Speaker 4: about the.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no problem, it's okay.

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Speaker 2: When when you take a look at successfully building successful

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Speaker 2: defenses and what impacts defensive DVOA the most, is investing

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Speaker 2: in your defensive front usually the best way to maximize

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Speaker 2: your effect.

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Speaker 4: I don't have an answer to that, Okay, I don't

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Speaker 4: have an answer to that.

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Speaker 3: Because I mean, some defenses are built from the secondary

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Speaker 3: more than the front, and some defenses, you know, like

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Speaker 3: the Legion of Boom or the current Jets. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Jets have good stuff in the front, but I

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Speaker 3: mean they have a Mod Gardner and DJ Reid and

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Speaker 3: Michael Carter who's very underrated. And some defenses are built

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Speaker 3: from the lines out. I mean, I guess I'd prefer

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Speaker 3: the lines out, but don't.

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Speaker 4: I can't tell you.

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Speaker 3: I've done research and it's better to build from the

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Speaker 3: lines out than to build from the secondary. What I

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Speaker 3: can tell you is that analytics has shown pretty good

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Speaker 3: that what you don't build is from the linebackers. Right,

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Speaker 3: That off ball linebacker is just a less important position.

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Speaker 3: And yes, there are a couple of off ball linebackers,

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Speaker 3: just like there are is a Christian McCaffrey, there is

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Speaker 3: also a ro Quand Smith. Right, there are a couple

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Speaker 3: of off ball linebackers that are transcendent. But for the

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Speaker 3: most part, those guys are more replaceable. So that's not where.

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Speaker 4: You start building.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, how about young secondaries? Is that a danger

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Speaker 2: thing to roll out there for your defense? Because the

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Speaker 2: Giants right now, their slokeye could be a rookie. Their

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Speaker 2: one outside cornerback could be a third year guy. They

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Speaker 2: have a second year player and a rookie competing for

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Speaker 2: a safety spot next to Jason Pinnock, who, by the way,

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Speaker 2: is just a one year starter at the position. Deontae

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Speaker 2: Banks is a second year player their best corner What

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Speaker 2: is history and DVOA tell you about putting out a

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Speaker 2: largely young secondary.

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Speaker 3: I have never seen any evidence, okay, that that is

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Speaker 3: a particularly bad move. I will say you do expect

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Speaker 3: rookies to struggle more than players at other positions, but

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Speaker 3: by the time you get to like year two, I

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Speaker 3: don't think you expect that anymore. And secondary play is

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Speaker 3: just pretty inconsistent. So it's not like rookies come in

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Speaker 3: and all suck like some of them are very good

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Speaker 3: as rookies. Look, you have situations like Tyreek Stevenson in

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Speaker 3: Chicago last year where he was horrendous for the first

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Speaker 3: half of the year and then above average for the

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Speaker 3: second half of the year. Like, cornerback players just very inconsistent.

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Speaker 3: I've never seen any evidence that specifically being young at

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Speaker 3: cornerback is a problem.

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Speaker 2: Well, well, let me follo out them because I agree

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Speaker 2: with you, I do think covers from year to year,

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Speaker 2: and I think you know in some of the stuff

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Speaker 2: no matter how you measure it, by the way, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: because I mean grade from.

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Speaker 3: Just anecdotally, it's just the most inconsistent position, which is

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Speaker 3: tough because it is a very important. It is a

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Speaker 3: very important, but inconsistent and hard to predict position.

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Speaker 2: So with that said that, I'm going to go back

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Speaker 2: to a previous question. You might not have the data,

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Speaker 2: but then anecdotically, does it make more sense then to

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Speaker 2: put your investment up front on defense because that is

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Speaker 2: less inconsistent and less volatile and more predictable.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be a reasonable Uh, that would be

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Speaker 3: a reasonable argument for why you should build from the

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Speaker 3: line out rather than from the secondary end.

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Speaker 4: Is that yes?

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Speaker 3: Is that I don't know about safety play per se,

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Speaker 3: but cornerback play is much more inconsistent when you have

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Speaker 3: a The odds that Brian Burns will be media yocre

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Speaker 3: this year are much lower than the odds that ah

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Speaker 3: Maud Gardner will be mediocre this year because Patrick certain

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Speaker 3: was frankly mediocre last year. He was I'm sorry, but

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Speaker 3: he was like, that doesn't mean I don't think that

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Speaker 3: when you look at like inherent skill, Patrick certain is

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Speaker 3: one of the best cornerbacks in the league. And if

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Speaker 3: I was to predict who was likely to be one

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Speaker 3: of the best cornerbacks in the league this year, I

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Speaker 3: would definitely predict Patrick's certain But he was mediocre last year,

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Speaker 3: and you don't get that from top edge rushers. Miles

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Speaker 3: Garrett doesn't suddenly finish thirty fifth in pressures all.

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Speaker 1: Right, one hundred percent.

441
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: The maybe the biggest edition for the Giants on defense,

442
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: aside from Burns. They changed defensive coordinators. They're bring Shane

443
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 2: Bowen in from Tennessee. What are some of the history

444
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: with what he did in Tennessee? Aaron stand out to

445
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 2: you in terms of what Giant fans should look for

446
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 2: with Bowen arriving and installing his defense, which is very

447
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: different than what Wing Martindale had here previously.

448
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, they will blitz.

449
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 3: A lot lessens last year were sixth and how often

450
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: they rushed four and they were fifth in the percentage

451
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: of sacks that came from edge rushers. So they're gonna

452
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 3: play more zone and they're gonna leave their cornerbacks on

453
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 3: sides and they're gonna rush only four and they were

454
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: an average defense last year, So I you know, I don't.

455
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 3: I'm not like whooh Sharon Boonen. But it's not like, oh,

456
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 3: Shane Bonen's history is that he sucks like.

457
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 4: It's not either of those things.

458
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 2: Now, I will ask you this because he does have

459
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 2: a very good history too of defending the run well.

460
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 1: For you, when you look at this from year to year?

461
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: Is run defense more personnel based? Is it simply how

462
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 1: many guys you have in the box? It is in

463
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: a numbers game?

464
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 4: Is it a lot of It is a numbers game.

465
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: That's not a year to year thing. If you look

466
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 3: at run if you look at the efficiency of runs,

467
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 3: a lot of it depends on just how many men

468
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 3: are in the box.

469
00:22:58,160 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 4: That's it.

470
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 3: Like the best way to play defense is if you're

471
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: back four or good enough that you can have seven

472
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: men in the box all the time, because then you

473
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 3: can stop the run more. If you can stop the

474
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 3: pass that way, you can stop the run more. So, Yeah,

475
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 3: it matters a lot how many men are in the ball.

476
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 2: And I got to imagine with as teams go to

477
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: more this split safety defense stuff, and they try to

478
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: have two safeties deep all the time. That's why I

479
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: think a lot of this power running game. You see

480
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: the Rams going to more duo type of stuff in

481
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,959
Speaker 2: the RUNFL cyclical, Baby, everything goes back to what it

482
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 2: was before.

483
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, now go ahead, I'm sorry.

484
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 3: It's say just NFL is cyclical, right, Like the run

485
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: will be on the rise and then defense safeties will

486
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 3: come in and then the run will drop and the

487
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 3: safeties will move back, And that's just the NFL is cyclical.

488
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 2: It really is. It's amazing. And you went from the

489
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 2: Bears back in the day. You know all those cover

490
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: two defenses and then you can started running.

491
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: So what do they do? Oh?

492
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: Then you had a lesion of boom cover three stuff

493
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: come in. Now everyone's start to throw. Oh well, it's

494
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: it's it's funny how it always goes back and forth.

495
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's jump back to the offensive side of

496
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 2: the ball here. Aaron you mentioned you thought and you

497
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 2: voted for him for Coach of the Year in twenty

498
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 2: twenty two. When you take a look at how that

499
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 2: Giants offense functioned, frankly, at a higher level than they

500
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: probably should have given the personnel they had that year.

501
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: What is it about that offense that year that stood

502
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: out to you, and do you think it's replicable.

503
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: In some way, shape or form. Do you want to

504
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 1: replicate it?

505
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: Just how do you view twenty twenty two and then

506
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: try to, you know, use that as a as a mirror.

507
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 4: They got guys open.

508
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: They had injuries, a lot of injuries wide receiver, and

509
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 3: yet Dabel was able to get guys open and Jones

510
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 3: was at the top of his game. Twenty twenty two

511
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,959
Speaker 3: was a best case scenario on offense. Like, I mean,

512
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: the only way it could have been a better case

513
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 3: scenario would have been if they had fewer wide receiver injuries.

514
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 3: But like, Jones played about as well as he can play,

515
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 3: and Dabo coached about as well as he can coach.

516
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: So let me follow up.

517
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 2: Then, this is one thing we talk about here is

518
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 2: how a quarterback success is often driven by the pieces

519
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: around him, right, and you know, obviously their own talent,

520
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 2: you know, especially the elite guys like in Alan Mahomes,

521
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: they can succeed regardless of what's around That's.

522
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: What makes them special. Right.

523
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 2: How much though, can improvement in the weapons you're thrown

524
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: to and the offensive line in front of you impact

525
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 2: a quarterbacks performance.

526
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: I mean it does absolutely impact to quarterbacks performance, There's

527
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 3: no question about it. That being said, I do feel

528
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 3: like this is a theory, not something I've proven with research.

529
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 3: But I feel like, no matter how good the quarterback is,

530
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 3: wide receiver one usually gets his. It's two and three

531
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: that suffer when the quarterback is worse. And I think

532
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 3: it's two and three that matter more to the quarterback's performance.

533
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,199
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, there are examples like Stefan Diggs all

534
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 3: of a sudden, that was the year Josh Allen took

535
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 3: a big step forward. But I think when I look

536
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: at the Giants this year, I think to myself, well,

537
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 3: if Neighbors is as good as we think he is,

538
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 3: there's wide receiver one, But what else is there?

539
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 4: Right? So, like wide receiver one will get his.

540
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 3: But is there enough other receivers to get Jones to

541
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 3: improve Jones's production?

542
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think they're counting on two young guys.

543
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: And I know you. I think there's John Hyatt and

544
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: Robinson who who you guys do talk about?

545
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 2: And the one thing I know you guys don't like

546
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 2: about Robinson I think it was his yards per catch, right,

547
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: and how how far downfield he's catching passes correct.

548
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's one of those little guys that does the

549
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 4: little slot things. Yeah, that's what he is.

550
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 2: How about a guy like Hyatt who was a big

551
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 2: downfield threat in college obviously had had a slow go

552
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: his rookie year. How much can a guy, especially a

553
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 2: wide receiver, take a jump after that rookie year? And

554
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 2: then how predictive is that rookie year, even if it's

555
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 2: not that productive be in terms of what that second

556
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 2: year can look like.

557
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: What was interesting to me is so last year I

558
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 3: introduced a new thing called root DVA. Right DVA for

559
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: receivers has always been based on targets because we didn't

560
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 3: have data on roots run. And over the last few years,

561
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 3: research has shown that can are stats that are based

562
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 3: on roots run are more consistent and more predictive. So

563
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 3: last year I created, for the first time, thanks to

564
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 3: the FTN charting data, a DVOA based on roots run.

565
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: We gave both of them in the book because you

566
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 3: can't use the root one to compare to the past

567
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 3: because we only have it for three years. I have

568
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 3: the other one going back to nineteen seventy nine. Hyatt

569
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 3: did really bad. He just wasn't drawing targets, and I

570
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 3: would have to go back and watch the film answer

571
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 3: the question. Is Hyatt not getting open or is it

572
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 3: just that their quarterbacks just could not get the ball.

573
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 4: Downfield to him?

574
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: But it was kind of shocking to me how much

575
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 3: he was ignored in that offense when he was on

576
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: the field. So that has got a change this year.

577
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 3: That's got to change.

578
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, And look, we we talked about the importance of

579
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: explosive plays earlier. He's obviously one of the guys you

580
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 2: would hope could bring some of those explosive plays you

581
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: mentioned Neighbors. He's looked great in camp. What kind of

582
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: impact can getting a number one wide receiver have not

583
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: just on the quarterback, but also on the other wide

584
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,959
Speaker 2: receivers in the group, because, as you know, they've been

585
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: basically rolling out Darius Slayton, who's done as well as

586
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: you could ask him to do over the past three

587
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: years as a number one, but he's just, you know,

588
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 2: not equipped to be that guy you think Neighbors is.

589
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 2: So what kind of impact did a guy like Neighbors

590
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 2: have on this offense the quarterback and the other receivers.

591
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 3: I mean, theoretically it should help, right because he'll draw

592
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 3: a coverage and that will get two and three open

593
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 3: more often, and that will make things better for the quarterback. Now,

594
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: I'm going to tell you two things that will seem contradictory.

595
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: Number One, in our Playmaker score projections, Malik Neighbors was

596
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: the number one receiver in this class, higher than Marvin Harrison,

597
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: and the main reason was that he was so good

598
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: while sharing the ball with Brian Thomas. It matters that

599
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas and Melik Neighbors were so good even though

600
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 3: they had to with each other, and therefore Neighbors and

601
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 3: Thomas were our top two receivers of the year. On

602
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: the other hand, I've talked about this a little bit

603
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 3: on podcasts having to do with Arizona and Chicago as well.

604
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: I've discovered this weird trend, all other things being equal,

605
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: teams that draft a wide receiver or tight end high

606
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: in the draft tend to drop a little bit in

607
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 3: offense and then go up in year two. And it

608
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: sounds weird.

609
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 4: And we certainly can remember anecdotally a.

610
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: Couple of a rookie wide receivers who lifted their team's offenses,

611
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: like Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. But overall, and I'm

612
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 3: not blaming it on the rookie wide receiver. I'm just

613
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: saying rookie wide receivers who are drafted high tend to

614
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: be drafted into situations where that offense for some reason

615
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 3: is you know, maybe it's because they got rid of

616
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: a veteran in order to bring in the rookie, and

617
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 3: the rookie is not as good at but whatever. These

618
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 3: teams tend to drop a little bit in offense in

619
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: the first year and then go up when those receivers

620
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 3: and tight ends are in their second year. So that

621
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 3: is something that does play in our projections for teams

622
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 3: like the Giants, the Cardinals, and the Bears.

623
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: That is interesting. That is interesting that I wouldn't think that.

624
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 2: But I like that you might have already answered this

625
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: already with your yards per route want run answer. How

626
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: do you predict and what do you look at when

627
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: predicting whether or not a wide receiver is going to

628
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: make a jump from year to year, Whether it's because

629
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: you might get more targets, maybe somebody leaves.

630
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: What are some of things you look like?

631
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, honestly, I wouldn't say there's any statistical

632
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 3: flag that goes. That's it.

633
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 4: That's the thing.

634
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 3: You want to look for two things. One were they

635
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 3: efficient with fewer targets? And two what's the opportunity. Neighbors

636
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: is walking in with the opportunity to be number one,

637
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: Harrison is walking in with the opportunity to be number one.

638
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 3: Adunes doesn't have that right, so you naturally expect more

639
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: from Neighbors and Harrison than you do from a Junsay.

640
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 2: I want to put the last question on twenty twenty two,

641
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 2: and then I want to get to the offensive line

642
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: real quick. When you look at twenty twenty two, so

643
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: much of that I think Dvoa and efficiency for the

644
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 2: Giants offense had to do the quarterback running the ball right.

645
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones' ability to scramble, and the scramble can oftentimes

646
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 2: be one of the most efficient plays in the NFL.

647
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: Can you just put in context for a Giant fans,

648
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure if some of them appreciate it

649
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 2: necessarily how good Daniel Jones is as a runner and

650
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: how much he really did help that offense as a

651
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: runner back in twenty twenty two.

652
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 3: Uh, let me see if I can find numbers for

653
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 3: what he did back in twenty twenty two. Hold on

654
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 3: a second, Yeah, no problem, he was. He was two

655
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: hundred and seventeen rushing d waar, which I don't have

656
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: the rank here, but that's got to be the top

657
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 3: of the.

658
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: League or close to it. He was a very efficient

659
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 4: runner in twenty twenty two.

660
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 3: Now he was not in twenty twenty one, and he

661
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 3: was not in twenty twenty three, but he was very,

662
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 3: very efficient in twenty twenty two. So having that, listen,

663
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: there was a year that the Bears where Mitch Trubisky

664
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 3: was a really good runner and it really helped the

665
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: Bears overall, even though we know Mitch Trubisky is really

666
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 3: lacking as a quarterback, So absolutely that helps.

667
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: That's something to keep an eye on this year coming

668
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: off that ACL for sure. We told about the receiver.

669
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 2: The other thing that can help a quarterback, obviously, aaron

670
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: is an offensive line, and the Giants offensive line, except

671
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty two, when they were I think functional,

672
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 2: they've been donk close to non functional for a lot

673
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: of the other years.

674
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: In the past three or four seasons.

675
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: They brought in clari and Bricillo, a new offensive line coach.

676
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: They've brought in two or three vets that have had

677
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: some level of success in the past that you think

678
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: can at least bring the level of the offensive line

679
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: up a little bit. So I got a couple questions here.

680
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 2: I'll start with this. How much can it change an

681
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 2: offensive line coach impact a unit like that as a

682
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: whole in trying to get them back towards average.

683
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 3: I don't know the answer to that, but my guess

684
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 3: is that it does have an impact. Certainly, Bill Callahan

685
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 3: has had an impact. I don't want anything about this, dude,

686
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: but Bill Callahan has absolutely had impact on offensive lines.

687
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: Dante Scarnekia impact line.

688
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: It's hard to measure the impact of Dante's Scarnecia because

689
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 3: he was always there, right, Yeah, Dante s Garnecia obviously

690
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: is I mean, if we're talking about putting position coaches

691
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: in the Hall of Fame, with Bill Callahan and Dante

692
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 3: Scarnecia are started start the top of the list.

693
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: Honestly, I'm with you, all right. So now let's talk

694
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: about offensive line performance in general. A lot of people

695
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 2: will say that it's kind of like a weak link position,

696
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: right where you can have three or four really good players,

697
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 2: you have one bad one that that can sink you.

698
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 2: There are two bad ones, especially you can't really help

699
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 2: two guys. You don't really kind of help one on

700
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: any given play. Is that how you view the offensive

701
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: line too, when you're trying to put it together. Better

702
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 2: to have like five average guys than two great guys

703
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: and then two bad ones.

704
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, if you if your offensive line, if you

705
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 3: were to rank the offensive line from one to five,

706
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: you would rather have all threes than three fives, but

707
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: two ones.

708
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 5: You love turf, you're good at it, so you start

709
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 5: a turf bus business grows, your savings grow, become the

710
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 5: most celebrated name in turf. Are you ready for all

711
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 5: that life brings?

712
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 4: Yes?

713
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: Makes sense?

714
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: At what point when you leave? And I don't know

715
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: what I actually don't know what metrics you used to

716
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 2: to kind of judge offensive line.

717
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 4: I mean, I like the ESPN pass block win rates.

718
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 3: You know, looking at pressures allowed is good, but pressures,

719
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 3: you know, pressures are are somewhat caused by the quarterback.

720
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 3: So offensive line is a hard is a hard position

721
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 3: to judge with.

722
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: Stats, So maybe you don't have to put a number

723
00:34:58,520 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: on it.

724
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 2: Then maybe a ranking based on whatever metric you know

725
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: fans want to use. What's the area you want to

726
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: stay out of if you're a team to keep Just

727
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: make your offense able to function like a normal offense.

728
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: You know what is it bottom quartile? Is it bottom fifth?

729
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 3: What?

730
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 1: Like? How less bad you have to be?

731
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 3: Well? See, I don't believe in defining lines like that,

732
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: Like everything is gradual. And the other thing is the

733
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 3: offensive line plays more of a role in run blocking

734
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 3: than past blocking. Right, quarterbacks have a lot more to

735
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 3: do with their own sacks and pressures. Sure, running backs

736
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 3: have less to do with their yards per carry. Now,

737
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 3: the problem with the Giants is they.

738
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 4: Were bad in every area last year.

739
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: Last year the Giants were last and adjusted lineyards, which

740
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 3: is run blocking, They were last and adjusted sack rate

741
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 3: and last and pressure made allowed. But I feel like

742
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 3: the line themselves has more control over the.

743
00:35:58,320 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 4: Adjusted line yards.

744
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 3: So that's kind of what I would look to improve first,

745
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 3: and I would look to improve how the quarterback takes

746
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 3: pressures in sacks for pass blocking.

747
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: And now generally speaking, quarterback more control over sack rate

748
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 2: than pressure rate.

749
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 3: Correct, yes, but more but more control over pressure rate

750
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 3: than you think would you control over both, but more

751
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 3: over sacks.

752
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 2: Yes, would you say the quarterback or the offensive line

753
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 2: has more control over pressure rate?

754
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 4: Probably still the quarterback.

755
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 3: Wow, Okay, well I would say sack rate is probably

756
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 3: something like eighty twenty and pressure rate is probably something

757
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 3: like sixty forty or fifty five forty five.

758
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 2: So when you talk about quarterback controlling pressure rate, Aaron,

759
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 2: that's more recognizing when he has to get the ball

760
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: out quickly before the pressure can get there, pre snap.

761
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: Doing those types of things. Yes, Yes, interesting.

762
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: Obviously, which if you're watching the game, it's it's it's

763
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: really kind of hard to figure out whether not there

764
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 2: that right or not. You kind of just have to

765
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: look at the results in that way.

766
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, even when we chart, if we chart pressure is allowed,

767
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 3: we don't chart pressure allowed because the quarterback held onto

768
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 3: it long. We chart pressure a lot so teams were

769
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 3: quarterback like last year, let me look at I'm looking

770
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 3: at the numbers here, Ben Brettison thirty seven pressure is allowed.

771
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 4: Some of that is on the quarterbacks, man, Sure, some

772
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 4: of those are pressures. There's no question.

773
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: I mean, is Ben Brettison as good as Creed Humphrey. No,

774
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 3: if Patrick Mahomes was back, there would Ben Brettison have

775
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 3: allowed thirty seven pressures by FTN data charting No.

776
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 1: No, And I think that's absolutely fair.

777
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,439
Speaker 2: How valuable do you consider the average time to throw

778
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: metric in determining how well quarterbacks can control that pressure rate?

779
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 3: I don't know, but a lot of time to throw

780
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 3: is scheme more than.

781
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: Quarterback scrambling has out of quarters. Actors trying to buy

782
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: time with their legs are gonna have a much right, So.

783
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 3: Some of it is the scheme and some of it

784
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 3: is who the quarterback is and does he like to

785
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: scramble and does it like to hold onto the ball?

786
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 4: And yet there's a lot of variables that go into that.

787
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 2: But I would imagine, and again, if you don't have

788
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 2: the data, we could just talk anecdotally. I suppose if

789
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 2: a quarterback has a very high pressure rate but their

790
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 2: average time to throw is, you know, pretty low, that

791
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 2: would probably point towards more offensive line problem than quarterback problem.

792
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: Correct, Probably fair enough?

793
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 2: Probably, all right, Let's take a look at the NFC

794
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 2: East a little bit ter, Aaron, because I do think

795
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 2: it's an interesting division.

796
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: The Eagles are a weird team.

797
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: I think we like their talent, but they are relying

798
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: on a lot of younger players now when they weren't before,

799
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: and we saw they collapse at the end of last year.

800
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 2: So I always start with Philly. How do you view

801
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: Philly this year in terms of team that has two

802
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 2: brand new coordinators, and I think they are making a

803
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:54,720
Speaker 2: bit of a transition from some of their older talent

804
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 2: to some younger players.

805
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 3: I'm lower on the Eagles than the market because they

806
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 3: were something like ninth or tenth in DVOA even when

807
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,839
Speaker 3: they were nine and one, and then they collapsed over

808
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 3: the second half of the season. They were barely an

809
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 3: above average team last year, and I don't see a

810
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 3: lot of reasons to believe that they are suddenly going

811
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 3: to rebound to be a top five team and a

812
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 3: Super Bowl contender. I think that people are underestimating the

813
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 3: loss of Jason Kelsey in particular, It would not surprise

814
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 3: me if the Tush push did not work as well

815
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 3: this year, and that would be a big change for

816
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 3: that team. So I think that the Eagles are much

817
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 3: more of a nine and eight type team than they

818
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:40,839
Speaker 3: are a twelve and.

819
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 4: Five type team.

820
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: What do you think of Jalen Hurts?

821
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 4: He's good?

822
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: How much of that is because of his ability to run,

823
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: and how much of that is because of his ability

824
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 1: to throw.

825
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 3: It more his ability to run. But you know, he's

826
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 3: not a bad thrower. He's an above average quarterback.

827
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 2: I think, I'm we're exactly on the same page. I'm

828
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: with you, all right.

829
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: How about the Cowboys twelve straight wins three years in

830
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: a row. Playoffs not so well, and.

831
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 2: That probably confuses analytics a little bit, right, because you

832
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 2: guys try to view playoff games in regular season games?

833
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: Is the same, right? Right?

834
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 3: I will fully cop to being a Dak believer. I

835
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: will fully cop to I believe that Dak Prescott is

836
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: the best quarterback in the NFC. I think that Dak Prescott,

837
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: I think one of these years is not going to

838
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,879
Speaker 3: get the Yips in the playoffs and they are going

839
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 3: to make it to the super Bowl unless they don't

840
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 3: resign him, in which case, unless it's this year, which

841
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna be, it won't happen. I

842
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 3: mean it could be this year, right, you know. I

843
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 3: mean the main reason why I have San Francisco so

844
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 3: heavily favored is because there's less competition in the NFC

845
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 3: than the AFC. But there is some competition in the NFC,

846
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 3: and the Cowboys are some of that. I mean, I

847
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 3: don't know what the deal is with the Cowboys in

848
00:40:58,200 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 3: the playoffs.

849
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,240
Speaker 4: I don't know how real it is.

850
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: History is filled with teams that couldn't do it in

851
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 3: the playoffs until the year they did. The best example

852
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: for me is the Colts, right the Colts couldn't get

853
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 3: it done in the playoffs until suddenly in two thousand

854
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: and six they did. Suddenly they got it done in

855
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 3: the playoffs. The Rams couldn't get it done in the

856
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 3: playoffs in the seventies until in seventy nine they did.

857
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 3: In other sports of the Celtics, the San Francisco Giants

858
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 3: with Barry Bonds couldn't get it done in the playoffs

859
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 3: until the year that they made it to the World Series. Like,

860
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 3: history is filled with teams that had these strings of

861
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 3: sucking in the playoffs and then they had the year

862
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 3: where they played as well in the playoffs as they

863
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 3: did in the regular season. And I feel like there's

864
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 3: a good chance that that will happen to Dallas one

865
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 3: of these years. The problem is, first of all, given

866
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 3: the way that they're treating signing their players, it better

867
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 3: be this year. And second is they could have that

868
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 3: happen and still lose. The Cowboys could finally play well

869
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 3: in the playoffs and win two games and get to

870
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 3: the NFC Championship game and play well and lose by

871
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 3: three points, and then everybody will just keep talking about

872
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 3: how they can't get it done in the playoffs.

873
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 4: So it's hard.

874
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 3: The other thing is when you have one team win

875
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 3: three championships in five years, it makes it so everybody

876
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: else looks like they can't get over the hump, right right,

877
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 3: Because if you think about the last five years, we

878
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 3: have Tampa, which is no longer part of the discussion,

879
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 3: and the Rams, who are kind of part of the discussion,

880
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 3: and then three Chiefs championships, which means the Bills are

881
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 3: a team that can't get over the hump. The Bengals

882
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 3: are a team that can't.

883
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 4: Get over the hump.

884
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: Okay, the Ravens, Cowboys, the Ravens, the forty nine Ers,

885
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,919
Speaker 3: maybe the Lions. They're all teams that can't get over

886
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: the I mean the Lions. It's only been one year,

887
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 3: but they're all like games that can't get over the hump.

888
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 3: Because the Chiefs keep winning it but one of those

889
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 3: teams could get over. I don't think that all of

890
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 3: those teams magically have something that makes them bad in

891
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs other than the magic of Patrick mahone Homes.

892
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 4: Yeah.

893
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 1: I absolutely agree with you on that.

894
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,479
Speaker 2: And this is a very simple way to put this question,

895
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: and I apologize for it. Do you think you're a

896
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 2: Dak believer? Are you a Dak believer? Where pay him

897
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 2: sixty million to make him the highest paid quarterback?

898
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 4: Yes?

899
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 1: Okay, good, good, firm answer. I like that.

900
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 3: If it was my choice, yes, I wouldn't want to.

901
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 3: But that's how quarterback salaries work. If you're a top

902
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 3: five or six quarterback and you're the next guy up

903
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 3: to get paid. I mean, if we wiped the slate

904
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 3: now and we announced all quarterbacks were gonna get paid

905
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 3: based on how good they were, then I would say

906
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 3: Dak would be the fifth I don't know, fifth best

907
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 3: quarterback put paid quarterback in the game. But that's not

908
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 3: how contracts work.

909
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: Yep.

910
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: But what I really know is this. You can ask

911
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: questions about whether Dak Prescott is not good in the playoffs,

912
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 3: and you can be like, we're not gonna pay him

913
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 3: because he's never going to get down in the playoffs

914
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 3: and we need to move on. But you cannot ask

915
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 3: those questions about Mike Parsons and Cedee Lamb.

916
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 4: Why on earth that they're up in pay yet.

917
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 2: Nope, No, I think that's absolutely okay. And that's why

918
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:08,879
Speaker 2: you and I was gonna say, that's why you pay

919
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 2: guyers early. Man, if you have a chance to pay

920
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: guys early, you pay him early, and then you kind

921
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 2: of go from there and you figure it out. I'm

922
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,720
Speaker 2: with you, and they just quickly.

923
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 4: The third team is the Washington Commanders.

924
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 1: Yes, Oh that's right. I yeah. So how do you

925
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: how do you see them be? I know a lot

926
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 1: of people are bullish on them this year.

927
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,760
Speaker 2: I don't know if I can get past their offensive

928
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: line and their secondary or I think there are some issues.

929
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 3: I'll summarize it. Yeah, bad defense with offense. The same

930
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 3: thing that I've been saying about other teams with rookie quarterbacks.

931
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 3: You cannot project that a rookie quarterback will be good.

932
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: One of them will probably be really good, yep, one

933
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 3: of them will probably be really bad. The rest of

934
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,959
Speaker 3: them will probably be kind of bad. And I don't

935
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: know which of those guys, as Jayden Daniels, and which

936
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 3: of those guys is Caleb Williams, And which of those

937
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: guys is Anthony Richardson, who's effectively a rookie. And so

938
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 3: I don't quite know what the Washington offense is going

939
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,359
Speaker 3: to be, but we don't project them to be good.

940
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. Based on DVA NFC.

941
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: Maybe give me one or two teams you think might

942
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 2: overachieve to where teams people might see him, and maybe

943
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 2: a two or two teams they do you think he

944
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: might underachieve?

945
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 3: Well, the underachieve is Philly and Atlanta, where we really

946
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 3: don't like their defense. The overachieve is very clear. I

947
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 3: am the driver of the New Orleans Saints bandwig.

948
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 1: Boring is good again, Boring is average.

949
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 3: Boring is not good because they're not good. They are

950
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 3: a boring team that has bored everybody into thinking they sucked,

951
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 3: when in reality they are very average. They were fifteenth

952
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 3: in DVA last year. They lost their division on a

953
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 3: time breaker. They are fifteenth in the DVOA projections. They

954
00:45:55,600 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 3: are fifteenth on offense, they are fourteenth on defense. They

955
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 3: are wealth in special teams. That is almost as average

956
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 3: as you can possibly get. They are just phenomenally mediocre

957
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 3: in a bad division with an easy schedule.

958
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 1: I like it all right, same question, AFC.

959
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 3: I think the team that we have lower than expectations

960
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 3: the most as Indianapolis, and that's because I'm not buying

961
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 3: that Richardson's going to be hugely good and because they

962
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 3: were not as good as the Their DVOA was not

963
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: as good as their record last year anyway, But Richardson

964
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: could be good and absolutely proved me wrong.

965
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 2: I don't know, you know, let me follow up on

966
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: the culture real quick before you before you switch us

967
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: out of the question. Do you think it does help

968
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: a quarterback to watch but not play and to be

969
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:44,439
Speaker 2: in the meetings and stuff like that.

970
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: Every time we've done research on this, we get a

971
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 3: very firm answer and the answer is I don't know.

972
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,959
Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough.

973
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

974
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 3: And the team that I like better than the market

975
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: is the New England Patriots. I think that provided that

976
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 3: they do not train made Matt Judon, even with the

977
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: blood clots for brit Christian Barmore, I believe the New

978
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 3: England Patriots will have a top five defense this year.

979
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 3: And even though they have a very tough schedule and

980
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 3: their offense is not good. I think their offense will

981
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 3: be better because I think Jacoby Brissette will start most.

982
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 4: Of the year. Yep. So it will be bad but

983
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 4: not horrendous.

984
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 3: The quarterback is not gonna be giving games away, and

985
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 3: that defense is gonna win games no one expects them

986
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,919
Speaker 3: to win, and they are gonna go over their four

987
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 3: and a half number in Vegas.

988
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 2: How do you measure the impact of losing a guy

989
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: like Belichick just from the defensive side.

990
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 3: I threw in an extra penalty that I've never thrown

991
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 3: in for any team before for losing Belichick and they

992
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 3: still come.

993
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 4: Out with a top five defense.

994
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 1: Wow. Really?

995
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 4: They were ninth.

996
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 3: In defensive DVOA last year despite being thirtieth in takeaways

997
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 3: per drive and missing their best pass rusher and two

998
00:47:57,280 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 3: of their three best cornerbacks for base the entire season.

999
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:04,799
Speaker 3: It's gonna be good this year.

1000
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: I like it all right, Aaron? Anything else you want

1001
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: to add before you go? And if not, you can

1002
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 1: just tell the folks one more time where they can

1003
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: find all your stuff.

1004
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 4: Yeah. FTN Football AAC twenty twenty four.

1005
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 3: Man, it is the best preview of the season with

1006
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 3: the most Accurate Projections Award winning fantasy projections from Jeff

1007
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 3: Radcliffe of FTN. Chapters on every team by our writers,

1008
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 3: lots of writing. It's not just tables of stats, it's

1009
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 3: lots of writings that explain the stats. You get the

1010
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 3: book at Ftnfantasy dot Com slash Almanac, or you want

1011
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 3: to go to Amazon and search for FTN Football Almanac

1012
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. Make sure you get the one with

1013
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey on the cover, not Patrick Mahomes.

1014
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 4: That was last year.

1015
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: Aaron, wonderful. This was great.

1016
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:48,919
Speaker 2: It was so much fun talking to you. Let's make

1017
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: this a yearly offseason tradition. It was great getting all

1018
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 2: the data information from you. Thanks so much of the time,

1019
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 2: and enjoy the season, my friend.

1020
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, good luck to the Giants. May I be wrong?

1021
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: Eric Chats check out all his work. Thank you for

1022
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 2: joining us in the Giants Little podcast. Everybody, brought to

1023
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 2: you by Citizens, the official Bank of the Giants. We'll

1024
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 2: see you next time, Everybody,