WEBVTT - A 2-6-Month Lasting 'Vaccine' Could Soon See Approval: Fazeli 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.200 we bring you interviews from CEOs, A, market pros, and 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:12.800 Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find the 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.320 Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:20.520 to podcasts, and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:24.240 for Bloomberg Opinion. We're joined by Sam Fizzelli. Sam is, 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:27.440 as we all know, senior pharmaceutical analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.800 He also manages Bloomberg Intelligence for all of Europe, and 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.479 as of today he's adding a third hat as an 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.600 opinion columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, and he's kind of really 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:41.320 fascinating column out today talking about vaccines when they could 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:45.720 become available, specifically talking about President Trump and his contention 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:49.559 that the U s could have a vaccine before election day. Sam, 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.320 once again, thanks so much for joining us here. Give 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:56.200 us your thoughts about the timing of a vaccine, if 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:59.560 specifically about President's Trump's contention that there could be a 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:04.680 vaccine in the U S. Bio action day. Hi, Paul, 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.920 it's very nice to talk to you again. So basically 0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:12.680 the if we're looking at traditional vaccines, then you still 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:17.520 have a fighter who who CEO continues to talk about 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:22.720 the possibility of getting data as early as October or 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:27.160 end of October, So there is still that possibility hanging around. 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:31.320 But the majority of companies, if they follow the same 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:34.120 path as Johnson and Johnson has done in their Phase 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:39.160 three by not looking at efficacy data until half their 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.720 patients have had at least two months after their last dose, 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.600 or that there is only one dose in the Genera trial, 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:48.880 then there's no way fights that can read out there 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.520 and Moderna we already know they've said they won't read out. 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:54.400 So it all depends what fights that does. It all 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:57.360 depends what's going on with these conversations have happened between 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:02.360 the White House and the CEO of Fights apparently. But 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.560 there is another angle, which is what I looked at 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:08.560 in my in my Pista road today poll. We'll do 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:13.160 tell them, okay, and that is that the there is 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:18.240 another version of vaccines, so called passive vaccines, so not 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.240 the usual one that you and I think about. But 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.520 somebody much cleverer than me put it very nicely and 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:27.720 called it an immune system in a bottle or immunity 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:31.360 in a bottle, so it's already it's just loads you 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:35.120 up with antibodies against the virus, so that either if 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:38.239 you've just been infected or you are at risk of 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:41.240 an infection, you could be protected for several months or 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:42.880 you could get a treatment out of it. Now, we've 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:46.720 had two companies in general and really report data, and 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.640 our contention is that there is a risk and I 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:53.679 use that word on purpose, that the FDA may give 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:58.360 these so called passive vaccines and approval before or in 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.440 the next month. And if that happens, and of course 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:04.720 the White House can claim that they achieved what they 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.520 were talking about. All right, So the difference between an 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:11.880 active and a passive just highlight that force against SAM. Yeah. Sure, 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:15.919 so you you, you and I have had many vaccines 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.080 in our lives. So the ones that you would normally 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:23.120 know as active vaccines are the flu vaccine or polio vaccine, 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:25.839 or the measles vaccine, etcetera. So those are the ones 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:30.600 that are injected into and you'll teach your body to 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:33.480 raise an immune response so that if you get you 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:36.440 see the virus, then you're already prepared to react to it. 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.840 The passive vaccines give you the antibodies that a vaccine 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:43.560 induces in new normally an active vaccine, they just put 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.040 them in a bottle and injected into So it doesn't 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:49.360 last as long as a as an active vaccination as 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.960 you know. You know, I don't know, fifty years ago 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.640 I had my small pox vaccine right or whatever it 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:58.240 was BCG vaccine. So all of those, you know, there's 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:01.520 no these things don't last as fifty years. But what 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:04.000 they could do is give you two years two months protection. 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.080 But in fact Clackso and Astro are working on things 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.360 they give you six months protection. UM, so you can 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:12.240 just keep going back every six months and get your 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.200 top hop I mean they're not cheap, but top up 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:21.240 and keep yourself protected potentially. So what's your hope, UM, 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.320 I mean, when are you anticipating being able to get 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:27.760 a vaccine and walking around your neighborhood. Oh gosh, you're 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:32.880 tantalizing me. Then I would love to UM to believe 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:36.320 that one of these vaccines, the active vaccines Fiser Moderna 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:41.559 novo vax is looking quite interesting, UM actually have their 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:44.880 vaccine ready by the end of this year and next year. 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:47.919 I would hope that they're better than the minimum that 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:53.600 the FDA has required, which is protection. And frankly, even 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:58.080 if it's he reduces your risk of disease or severe 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:02.520 disease by I would still take it. Um you spend 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:05.880 a couple of days feeling pretty gruelty, and then after 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.560 that you protected for hopefully year, two years, three years, 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.719 four years. I would like that, Sam, What do you 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:14.680 know what's going on in China? You know, we see 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:18.600 reports that uh Chinese pharmacyttal companies in the government are 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:22.080 are having running tests of tens of thousands and injecting 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.560 people with some type of quote unquote vaccine. What's going 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.320 on there? You know? Yeah? But what were you doing 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.040 that too, Paul? We've got if you add up at 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.039 the number sixty thousand four Johnson and Johnson forty four 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:37.640 thousand four find there, you get up to over two 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.839 hundred thousand people being injected with vaccines, or least half 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:45.320 of them anyway with vaccine in the trials. Now. So 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:47.479 I don't know the detail of what's going on in China, 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:50.240 but I don't think this is massive news in that 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.280 they already started with the with the military apparently, and 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:58.160 then of course the broader population slowly running out at 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:01.880 the end of the day, this um this vaccine that 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.279 they're using, at least the one that I just read 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:08.839 in the article that we were referring to, is one 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:12.640 that's based on an older technology. Nothing wrong with that, 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:17.120 but it's an older technology and we've seen some data 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:20.920 for it. It does give you some protection, and they're 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:25.920 just rulling it out some Is there a danger that 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.320 one country will get it and be you know, covered 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:33.480 us about it and keep it and we won't see it. Well, 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:37.560 the the companies were developing these just all signed up, 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:41.720 there was the news yesterday, signed up to equitable and 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.799 making these vaccines that they're developing, at least the Western 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:50.520 companies available to low income countries in an affordable way. 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.799 So I don't think this will happen that. The bigger 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:57.520 question really is would you in the United States be 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.440 even have the possibility to get access to the Chinese 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:06.119 vaccine or a Chinese individual in the country over there, 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:09.600 would they ever have access to the Western vaccine? So 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.080 I think what's going on here is that the countries 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:16.040 who got the technology are developing the vaccines themselves. So 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:23.640 if you look around Germany, France, England, UK US, China, Russia. 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:27.160 They're all they're all developing their vaccines, and between them, 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.640 I'm sure there'll be enough to hanger hand around them. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:31.720 Which one is the most effective. We've just no idea 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.480 somewhere out of time. But is there any newcomer on 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.560 the scene, you know, is it entirely possible that one 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.480 of these days you've got an email from some companies 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:45.400 saying they've discovered some you know, massive new thing. Well 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.960 not really, I mean, we are waiting for antivirals and 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.840 therapies to continue to roll out, so we should get 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:56.000 some data on those novovacs. Should have something new data 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.480 in the next couple of weeks. That's not expectation. And 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.520 there's a come Penny Frost that nobody talks about called 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:07.240 val Neva, just developing a vaccine that's similar to the 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.480 older technology val Neva. We certainly will keep an eye 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.440 on all of those. Sampa Zali, head of E M 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:19.080 e A Research and senior pharmaceutical analist Bloomberg Intelligence. Time 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.880 now to talk cars. A great story on the Bloomberg 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:24.520 Today discussing whether you should buy a COVID car. It's 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.840 been notoriously difficult to rent cars. Pricing has gone up 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.560 as people in big cities trying to get out, even 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.080 if it's just for the weekend, the ones that I've 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.520 had to stay behind. And then overall auto sales have 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:37.400 pretty much held up. So let's bring in someone who 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.360 can't give us more detail about all of this. Jessica 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:43.680 Coldwell is executive director of Insights at Edmonds dot com. 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:48.280 Jessica Q three Auto sales. Maybe we're not as quite 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.560 as strong as anticipated, but they're still holding in there. 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:57.400 There's like fifty million sales in the quarter. Yeah, definitely, 0:08:57.440 --> 0:08:59.960 And I think this is where Quarterly Cells probably heard 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.880 the the knowledge of seeing what's actually going on in 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.640 the industry, because if you look month to month throughout 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.440 the third quarter, you would see an improvement. September Cells, 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.640 especially in terms of retail, the average consumer buying cars 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.679 was actually quite strong. So I think that that can 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:18.360 definitely give us some optimism in this market. And I 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.440 would say overall the American consumer is holding up the 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:24.640 auto market. It is the what we call fleet sale. 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.080 So that's the budget, the hurts, the you know, the 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.760 commercial the business fleet. Um folks that are are you know, 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:32.960 are not buying as many cars. So I think that 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:35.959 really speaks strongly for consumer confidence that people are willing 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:39.360 to make these big purchases. So, Jessica, I have a 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.480 good buddy of mine who manages a dealership here in 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.920 New Jersey and he tells me, and he's been telling 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:46.920 you this for a couple of months now. The big 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.640 issue is inventory. They just can't get enough cars on 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:53.120 the lot to sell. What's the status of the inventory 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:55.920 in this country? Yeah, I think that has been a 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:58.240 really interesting thing. I mean, who would have thought that 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:01.240 in the beginning of March, when the pandemic started, that 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.640 we would be having this conversation. I mean, I think 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.679 what happened was, of course, factories across the US they 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:09.720 shut down it's on average about six weeks during the pandemic, 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.920 and at that time, no cars were being built. And 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.520 you know, at the same time, people were still buying cars. 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:17.400 I mean, not as many during that time period, but 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:19.920 people will still And that's that's a really long time 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.720 for a factory. And if we think back till last year, 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.840 General Motors in particular had issues with with labor strikes, 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:29.679 so they had that at the end of twenty nine 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.440 and then going into with the pandemic. Um. You know, 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:35.679 I think that they've been particularly hard hit with with 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:38.840 with inventory issues because of it. UM. So I think 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.720 that automakers have been really trying to figure this out 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.000 to to try to increase production where they can. Of 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.719 course doesn't apply to everyone in every factory, but particularly 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.880 for things like pickup trucks, which have done really well. Um. 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:54.520 You know, trying to eat more out of those is 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.400 of course a goal for the auto companies, particularly as 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.440 they they are, you know, they provide a lot of 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.640 profitabilit be for them. So we know that numbers for 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:07.280 sales were pretty strong and inventory is a little bit 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.319 hard to come by, perhaps, but what about pricing and 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:15.400 what about financing? So our dealers willing to finance more? 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:18.360 Are they getting a break from the people that are 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:20.839 supplying them, from the car makers and so on? Because 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:22.679 we know that, you know, with the exception of the 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.319 stock market, a lot of people are out of work, 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.400 they're furloughed, they're digging into their savings, and you know, 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:30.600 may not be the right time for them to buy 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:33.720 a big purchase. M h. Yeah, I mean I think 0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:35.880 that what we're what we're seeing in terms of pricing 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:39.319 in terms of consumer composition, that the people that are 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.520 buying cars, particularly new cars, are people that are definitely 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:46.120 more financially secured through the pandemic. They're not necessarily as 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:49.200 worried about being laid off or being furloughed or taking 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.040 new pay cuts, or even if they take a pay cut, 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.520 it's still, you know, enough to buy a car because 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.000 you can tell that transaction prices are going up or 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.920 seeing things like higher down payments, um, lower interest rate. 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.760 Of course, that's a big driver, and I think that 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.560 that's helped a lot of consumers buy cars because not 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:07.959 only is the interest rate low, you also have the 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:12.840 automate automakers subsidized incentives which make the interest rates even lower. 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:14.880 So I think that that is encouraging people to buy, 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.280 especially when you think of some of these loan terms 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.600 out there. It's not unusual to see now seventy two 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.720 eighty four months and if you're getting you know, something 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.160 close to zero percent that you know, that kind of 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:30.440 makes that new vehicle worth it. How about the used 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:34.040 car market, Jessica, how's that faring right now? Yeah, the 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.160 youth car market is pretty much going like gangbusters. Um 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:41.240 they I mean, we're really seeing unprecedented things in that 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:44.679 in the sense that pricing for you know, let's say 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.600 a three year old vehicle has actually gone up over 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:49.520 the summer, and that I mean that never happens. I mean, 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.360 you think about a used car every month it ages, 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.560 you you know, the piers should go down. It's older, 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:57.160 more miles, more wear and tear. But we're seeing the 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.000 opposite um and we have through the summer um because 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.079 as there has been just so much demand. I think 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.560 people are you know, folks that maybe would have bought 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.280 a new car in pre pandemic times, want to be 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.720 a bit more financially conservative, are thinking maybe I should 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:13.600 go to the used car market. You have perhaps some 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.680 people that are uncomfortable taking a public transportation and think 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.360 I just want something that's not too expensive to some 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.800 basic transportation to get me around. Okay, let me go 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:26.400 into the US market. So as a result, dealers essentially 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.760 cannot get enough used cars. I mean, we'll start to 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.360 see prices decline as the calendar ure ends in the 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.959 in the car's officially age. But I mean the market 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.640 has been incredibly strong the past few months. So we 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.840 were at tifting point two at the last reading, million 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.200 on annualized basis. How long for can that continue? Do 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:46.680 you see you know, beyond fifteen million number for the 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.280 rest of the year. Yeah, I mean it's possible. I 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.120 mean I think fifteen million for this years is you know, 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.920 still requires a you know, a strong clothes and I 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:58.920 think some of the worries about as it's getting colder, 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.360 will they be and not there um, you know, another 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.000 round of lockdowns as related to the pandemic. How will 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:08.640 the election affect consumer confidence and and just sales in generals. 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.720 I think that that is, um, you know, definitely a concern. 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.640 But you know, if we look through what we have seen, um, 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.760 you know, consumers have largely held up auto sales. So 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.600 I think that them being the largest part of uh, 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:23.800 you know, of the of the mix. Um, I think 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.360 that really speaks strongly as we head into next year 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.240 and you know, perhaps people are you know, doing it 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:34.120 a bit better financially. Jessica Caldwell, thank you so much 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:37.480 for joining us. We appreciate that. Jessica Caldwell, executive director 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.640 of Insights for Edmunds dot Com, giving us her thoughts 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:44.000 on the auto industry again, uh, stronger than expected. Some 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.160 of the expectations at the beginning of the pandemic that 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.440 it would be disastrous for the industry turned out to 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:54.640 be not so so. The job has claims that we 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:58.600 saw this morning came in slightly better than forecast, although 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:01.640 stubbornly high. And what we're starting to see really over 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.640 the last several days is some big blue chip companies, 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.160 ranging from the airlines to the Walt Disney Company to 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:13.600 financial services companies, announced some significant layoffs. Shnei, Bostic, Wall Street, 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:15.840 Border for Bloomberg News joints us to talk about some 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.160 of those financial institutions Socionale, we're seen in lakes, the 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:23.920 likes of JP Morgan, Goldman, sachs Uh, some international banks 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:28.200 talk about some reinstating, some furloughs and layoffs. What do 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.280 you have for us, Yeah, we we've been talking about 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:33.120 this for a while. We knew it was coming, and 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.520 now we know what the scale looks like, and now 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.640 we know where the cuts are really coming from. At 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.680 a bank like Goldman, you're seeing a lot of these 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.080 costs only one percent of the workforce, but it's not 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.600 it's some hundreds of jobs. It's a lot of back 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.880 office jobs. But then when you look at JP Morgan. 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.600 There's some job cuts at the consumer unit as well 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.320 as other lines of businesses. So this um, this sleep 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:01.080 is not discriminating. The other issue you, I would say, Paul, 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:04.920 is if you are a contractor for a bank, if 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.520 you're a service provider for a bank, you should be 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:12.280 a little concerned right now too, Shinali. You know banks 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.800 lay off a certain small percentage every year. It's churn. 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.040 It's the people who come in post internships who maybe 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.120 don't make the cut, on so on. How is this 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.080 your different and timing wise? Is this when banks normally 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.320 do it? Yeah, this this is when you would see them. 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:29.840 But remember a lot of it, and make no mistake, 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:33.240 A lot of this is pandemic driven, partially because people 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.800 believe and you saw this in all State, which is 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.960 cutting almost four thousand jobs right. A lot of this 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.120 is because the economy is not necessarily improving to the 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.760 point that can justify keeping so much staff on payroll. 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:48.960 So I mean, let's let's be very clear that some 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:50.560 of this is because of the A lot of this 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:54.520 is because of the pandemic. But also remember the banks 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:58.920 are looking around and saying, okay, they started cutting jobs 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:03.000 last year when times are very good in anticipation of 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.000 a rainy day. The rainy day is now here. We 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.480 don't know how long that will last. A lot of 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.159 the businesses that are making them do very well, we 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:15.240 also don't know how long that will those tailines will last, 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.320 and so they really need to be cutting where they can. 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.160 They want to be improving their returns through shareholders, which 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.639 will be pretty discriminating, and they just want to be 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.440 prepared to be competitive for the year ahead, especially when 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.840 so much of their staff um can be found out 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:34.760 they can do their work in a way that's more 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:39.200 automated and in lower cost location like Texas and Florida 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.440 or the suburbs rather than the highest um cost cities 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.680 in the world. That's interesting, Stionnale. I guess a lot 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.600 of industries and a lot of companies. I think, you 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.359 know what we're hearing from them is they are really 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:55.280 rethinking the scale of their workforce, the location of their workforce, 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:59.199 the deployability of their workforce. Is there that kind of 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.920 discussion going on the financial services that maybe I don't 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:07.320 need all the numbers I thought I needed before. Perhaps 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:11.439 with technology, perhaps with automation, you know, there can be 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:18.520 a significant reduction in the permanent um jobs within financial services. Yes, absolutely. 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:21.400 You know one business that has taken a long time 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.320 to automate and now people are looking to you know, 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:26.920 maybe this can move a little faster. It's been happening 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.159 for a while, but you know, THECUS discussion, there's definitely 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:35.560 elevated UH places like fixed income trading where automation has 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:37.920 not really taken hold in the same way as other 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.600 parts of financial services. That's a place, for example, that 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.159 we can look for much more automation in the coming years, 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.840 and then at least the questions of what does that 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.760 mean for jobs. Is that famous example of Goldman where 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.480 a five hundred person trading unit was cut down to 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:57.080 three people because of the effects of automation. They just 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.480 didn't need that many people anymore. So we're seeing that 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:03.000 another part of high catch businesses. Then there's also the 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:06.640 consumer business that you know, in the coming years you'll 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.320 have a lot of questions about because this pandemic is 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:13.600 shown that consumers want to bank online. They're not going 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:15.280 to the branches like they used to be going to 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:19.400 the branches. These firms used to have major branch networks 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:23.040 employing many thousands of people across the entirety of the 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:26.640 United States, So do they need those anymore? For now, 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.720 they're saying they like to have a physical footprint. But 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:32.560 let's see if they hold true to that. Given this 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.480 acceleration of digital banking. We heard from JP Morgan that 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.920 it's eliminating more than one hundred jobs in an annual cuts, 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.280 which obviously is not as many as Goldman Sachs. But 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.480 those who took funds improperly, and you know, of five 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.880 hundred people that were investigated, at least a few took 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.119 it took them improperly. You would wonder why any any 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.280 you know, pandemic funds were necessary for a Japing Morgan employee. 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:59.280 But you know, are they going to be among the fired? 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:04.600 You know, there there's cost cuts for the purposes of 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.960 cutting people in the consumer bank that need to be cut, 0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:10.320 but there's also cost cuts happening. I mean, yeah, that 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.240 that is a one off situation and super unfortunate. There's 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.760 no other way to put that, right, I mean, those 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:19.879 are those are firings for misconduct, right, so they're not 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.400 hiring for but you know, it goes to show, you know, uh, 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.720 the banks really don't have room, right now to allow 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:32.240 employees to misbehave in any fashion, whether that's taking PPC 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:35.080 funds or whether that's at this point any sort of 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:39.960 racial discrimination or anything else. Um, when when Morgan Stanley 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:42.040 set out at the beginning of the year and put 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:44.600 their moratorium on job cuts, that that will last to 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:46.879 the end of this year, which was what their promise was, 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:48.440 So that's another bank, by the way, we're gonna look 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:50.320 too in the beginning next year. They made it very 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:53.720 clear that, um, you know, bad behavior was the clear 0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:56.280 exception to that rule. And you know, the banks are 0:20:56.320 --> 0:20:58.560 really trying to come out as a good guys in 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:02.480 this crisis, so this is really a zero tolerance policy 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:06.400 for this kind of behavior. Shenali, thank you as always 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:09.520 for your perspective that particular program that was topped at 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:13.400 JP Morgan, the Economic Injury Disaster loan program, and it's 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:16.000 at all of a hasty probe, the full effect of 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:19.240 which hasn't been previously reported. Do check out Michelle Davis 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:21.440 the story on the Bloomberg for that one. And thanks 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:27.040 again to Shinnali Bazac. We're now joined by Lauren Simmons, 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.400 entrepreneur and youngest ever female trader on the New York 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.600 Stock and Change. She has a a new series coming up. 0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:37.400 Going Public will follow a diverse cast of entrepreneurs as 0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:39.680 they strive to win over investors, make deals, and hit 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:43.800 the ultimate goal for startup listing on the nastac Lauren, 0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:45.840 thanks so much for joining us here. Tell us about 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:50.680 the work you're doing now in your upcoming project. Yeah. So, 0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:53.680 I'm so excited to be the host of Going Public, 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:57.000 and essentially I'm here to educate and empower the next 0:21:57.040 --> 0:22:03.320 generation in finance and inspire the new generation of retail investors. 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:07.040 The right way going public is, you know, groundbreaking in 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:10.160 the sense that we are following five founders that are 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:14.120 taking their companies public at the nastac UM. This isn't 0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:19.840