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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn. Ten seconds

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Speaker 2: of eating.

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Speaker 1: They just go show under the basket, under the basket,

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Speaker 1: it's the.

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Speaker 2: Troup for the wind. God make go a miracle. I'm

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Speaker 2: just it's up the water. Hit that one from the

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Speaker 2: parking lot. Shuck it all.

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Speaker 1: It's college basketball. It's not the size on the dog

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Speaker 1: in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog. What's

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Speaker 2: up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the college Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview, Part six.

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Speaker 2: I'm stucky enjoining me today a friend of mine and

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Speaker 2: friend of the pod. You know him very well, mister

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Speaker 2: Jim Root the three man weave. It's going on, Jim,

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Speaker 2: not too much.

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Speaker 1: We're getting into the heart of it. I just love

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Speaker 1: at the conference tournament pool. You know, you overreact where

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Speaker 1: you are in the standing stuck. And then oh, there's

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Speaker 1: still like two hundred games to be played this week.

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Speaker 1: There's there's a plethora of basketball ahead of us.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we get a little bit of a breather Monday Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: but we'll still have some tickets to the dance Punched.

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Speaker 2: And then it gets crazy, one of the best weekends

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Speaker 2: of the season coming up, and then obviously the best weekend,

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Speaker 2: so it's uh, it's gonna be madness today. I'm really

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Speaker 2: excited for this episode because we're coming some really really

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Speaker 2: intriguing conferences. We're gonna talk Big East Conference, USA South

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Speaker 2: Plan and maybe the one i'm excited for the most

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Speaker 2: Mountain West, which it just has so many different storylines

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Speaker 2: we can I could spend forever on it, but we'll

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Speaker 2: try to be a little efficient here. But before we

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Speaker 2: dive in, a lot of newsworthy things happened. It looks

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Speaker 2: like John David's gonna be okay. I know that happened today,

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Speaker 2: but Wisconsin went down and Illinois just actually pulled it

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Speaker 2: out against Iowa thanks to some ridiculously bad Iyewa free

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Speaker 2: throw shooting, and they clinched the one seed in the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten tournament. But what's one takeaway that you wanted

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Speaker 2: to mention from the weekend?

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Speaker 1: I was it was a good weekend for ball teams,

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Speaker 1: and not just because a lot of them won by

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Speaker 1: you lost. That was a team that I think was

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Speaker 1: in the outside look an inn had a chance to

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Speaker 1: make a little bit of a run they're probably drawing

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Speaker 1: dead since they're in the clubhouse now. Loyola won their tournament.

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Speaker 1: That was another team that was kind of lurking by

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Speaker 1: the cut line, could have maybe been a bid steeler

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Speaker 1: or allowed a bid stealer in the NBC. And then

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Speaker 1: Murray State took care of business in the OVC, So

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Speaker 1: that is good. The bubble has not shrunk yet. All

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Speaker 1: the teams that are sitting near that cutliner at least

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Speaker 1: feeling good about that aspect. Not having any big steelers

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Speaker 1: so far this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one team that will. We'll talk abut Actually, it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good transition start with the Big East and

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Speaker 2: Xavier is one team that is fading fast. But they

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Speaker 2: had to be happy with some of those results because

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Speaker 2: they're right on the cut line. The Beast the six

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Speaker 2: teams safely in I think if you assume Creighton is

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Speaker 2: in then and then Xavier, I think bracket Matrix has

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Speaker 2: them like barely in right now. But they're obviously trending

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Speaker 2: in the wrong direction. But let's talk. The Big East

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Speaker 2: Conference tournament always a fun one. Eleven teams get in.

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Speaker 2: Played at Madison Square Garden March ninth through the twelfth.

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Speaker 2: There's five buys, Providence, Villanova, Yukon, Creighton, and Marquette. We

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Speaker 2: have our round one games already set. Saint John's De

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Speaker 2: Paul is a bummer. Two teams that are like trending

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Speaker 2: up and playing well and healthy, and they get each

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Speaker 2: other in the first round. Seaton Hall Georgetown Xavier Butler

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Speaker 2: defending champ. Georgetown was an eight seed. I'm just talking

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Speaker 2: about this with Matt. We have Georgetown, who's I don't know,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty to one, Georgia Tech and Oregon

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Speaker 2: State defending champs that have zero chance of winning their

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Speaker 2: conference tournament. Bizarre year last year. I'll start with a

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Speaker 2: trivia question before we dive into the bracket, and the

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Speaker 2: odds lowest seed to win the Big East Tournament ever,

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Speaker 2: which guess or do you know it?

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Speaker 1: Is?

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Speaker 2: It?

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Speaker 1: Not the I guess it's not Georgetown the eighth seed

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Speaker 1: last year. That must not be it. It's not. Does it

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Speaker 1: go back to the sixteen team era? I'll say the

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Speaker 1: nine seed was ukond of the nine seed the year

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Speaker 1: they won the title.

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Speaker 2: Nine seed is correct, ding ding ding, But it was

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Speaker 2: cuse in two thousand and four with all those I

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Speaker 2: think it was like all that year they had all

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Speaker 2: those crazy games and close wins, and they won four

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Speaker 2: or five games in four or five days. But nine

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Speaker 2: seed is correct, so you're starting off with a winner.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's take a look at the odds. A

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Speaker 2: Nova's the favorite plus one sixty five. We know how

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Speaker 2: good they are. They are well coached, well schooled. They're

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Speaker 2: just going to grind down excellent passing team, gonna get

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Speaker 2: excellent offense. They're very good. Yukon actually second plus three fifty,

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Speaker 2: Providence around five to one, Marquette seven to one, Marquette

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Speaker 2: really fading down the stretch, four and five down the stretch,

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Speaker 2: although they did sweep Nova, and so does that make

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Speaker 2: them more intriguing? We'll talk about them. Creighton ten to one,

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Speaker 2: Seaton Hall, uh, you know, then you're getting the Satan Hall,

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Speaker 2: Saint John's twenty seven to one, Xavier thirty to one,

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Speaker 2: Butler thirty five to one, to Paul sixty five to one.

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Speaker 2: So let's attack this well. First, I'll ask you when

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Speaker 2: you first look at this bracket, I can tell you

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Speaker 2: my thoughts, and then i'll get your see if you

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Speaker 2: agree this narrative that you know Providence is lucky. I

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Speaker 2: tweeted it out the other week. I said, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: get Providence like plus three in the first round against

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Speaker 2: like a fourteen seed, and they're gonna win by like

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Speaker 2: forty because everyone's just like they're unlucky. I want to

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Speaker 2: fade them. So I look at and they're you know,

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Speaker 2: five to one. Yukon is plus three fifty and they're

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Speaker 2: in the same side of the bracket as Villanova, and

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Speaker 2: Providence has to play either a fading you know Xavier

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Speaker 2: team Butlers were playing better with Hodges and Enzi, but

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Speaker 2: you know, Providence should have been that game. Then they

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Speaker 2: get a Creighton team that doesn't have Nemar and I

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Speaker 2: think they're trash without him, and or a fading Marquette team.

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Speaker 2: So like their path to the final is is not tough.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you kind of has to play Seaton Hall,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about maybe the status of Richmond, which could

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Speaker 2: be big. And Villanova has to play like it's Saint Johnson,

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Speaker 2: the Paut's team that are playing really well to Paul's

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Speaker 2: a covering wagon. So like that's there's some land mines

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Speaker 2: and that side of the bracket. So I my first

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Speaker 2: thought was that maybe there's some value with Providence here.

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Speaker 2: What were your first thoughts on the bracket be where

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Speaker 2: we dig in here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of even more just higher level. I just

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Speaker 1: looked at it and said, oh, the top half is

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Speaker 1: where I want to bet because the bottom half is

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Speaker 1: loaded with teams that are a playing well, Like the

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Speaker 1: bad teams are playing well that are on the bottom half,

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Speaker 1: and it has the two best teams Villanova and Yukon.

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Speaker 1: So if I want to future, I am hunting the

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Speaker 1: top side of that bracket where the teams aren't playing

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Speaker 1: as well. Honestly, of that top half of the bracket,

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Speaker 1: the five that are up there, I would argue that

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Speaker 1: only Providence is playing really well right now and is healthy. Like,

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Speaker 1: if you put those two qualifiers on it, it's only Providence.

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Speaker 1: So uh, if you wanted to try to force one,

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Speaker 1: like a long shot, I would probably look at the

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Speaker 1: top half too, Like if you think somehow Xavier trends

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Speaker 1: up in the in the postseason or something. But yeah, like,

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Speaker 1: I think there's a very clear divide between the top

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Speaker 1: half and the bottom half. That was my biggest takeaway.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, in the bottom half, if you were gonna like, man,

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Speaker 2: I mean Saint John's there I mean Saint John's is

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Speaker 2: Paul's around sixty five to one. I mean I kind

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Speaker 2: of think I would prefer to Paul over Saint John's.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is, I think Saint John's curious kit.

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Speaker 2: Your thoughts is, I think Saint John's is a better

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Speaker 2: shot of beating Villanova than to Paul, especially after watching

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Speaker 2: this TWI against the Paul kind of just like, you know,

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Speaker 2: they thrive in transition and they they kind of get

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Speaker 2: caught playing how other teams play. But they're healthy now.

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Speaker 2: But I just it's hard for me to see them

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Speaker 2: beating Villanova Saint John's. No matter who they play, they're

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Speaker 2: just gonna muck up the game. So my problem is that,

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Speaker 2: you know, Saint John's De Paul could go either way.

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Speaker 2: You're getting a much better odds with the Paul, But

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Speaker 2: I just don't think that De paul can beat Villanov.

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Speaker 2: But De Paul's been incredible since getting healthier and just

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Speaker 2: a covering machine. Any thoughts on that particular matchup end

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Speaker 2: or the odds there?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean De Paul kind of what you're doing.

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Speaker 1: We call them a pace taker, Like whatever the other

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Speaker 1: team plays, that's what they end up doing. So if

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Speaker 1: they're playing somebody like Saint John's, I can thrive because

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Speaker 1: they're going to get in the track meet that they

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Speaker 1: want to be in. Freeman, Liberty and Jones are so

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Speaker 1: good in transition. But then Villanova, Yeah, they're gonna end

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Speaker 1: up playing a bogged down half court game like Villanova

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Speaker 1: wants them to, and I think they are pretty much

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Speaker 1: hopeless in that situation. But Saint John's has given Villanova

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Speaker 1: trouble in the past. I remember last year Posh got

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Speaker 1: in Colin Gillespie's grill quite a bit and forced him

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Speaker 1: into one of his worst games his college career, and

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Speaker 1: can still potentially do that. Chimpennee's playing a lot better.

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Speaker 1: They have the long athletes to compete with Nova and

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Speaker 1: deal with they're switching. So yeah, Saint John's was a

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Speaker 1: team I was thinking about as a dark horse. If

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Speaker 1: Saint John's had gotten the eight or nine seed, I'd

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Speaker 1: be on them, getting them as a future on that

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Speaker 1: top half of the bracket. I just the hesitance is

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Speaker 1: having to go through Villanova in the second round.

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Speaker 2: Yep, injury concerns with crighton do a Greek. You think

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Speaker 2: Creighton is done? You know, as far as making a

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Speaker 2: run in the tournament or winning this without them Hard

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Speaker 2: and then anything on Steeton. I was actually surprised set

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Speaker 2: and I'll still ended up pulling it out down to

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Speaker 2: their third point guard after they lost Richmond. I haven't

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Speaker 2: seen an update on him, but his hand injury looms

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Speaker 2: large as well. Are those two teams complete Stanleys because

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Speaker 2: of the injury situation?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, especially Creighton for me, I think there's you know,

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Speaker 1: other talent on the rosters. They beat Yukon without Emhard,

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Speaker 1: but he just means so much to them. I think

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Speaker 1: the fact that they did lose the Seaton Hall's third

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Speaker 1: string point guard is reflective of how important he is

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Speaker 1: to them. He's playing basically every minute before he got hurt.

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Speaker 1: So I'm glad they got the Yukon win done because

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Speaker 1: I think they belong in the tournament for what they

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Speaker 1: did all season, and they don't have the excuse of like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you didn't win any games without them Hard. They got

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Speaker 1: a good win without him. I just don't see where

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Speaker 1: they go without like a true creator, somebody to control

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Speaker 1: the game. That that's trouble for the Blue Jays. Uh. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: See.

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Speaker 1: In all, like you said, they've done the third string

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Speaker 1: point guard Aiken was really good before he got hurt.

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Speaker 1: They were like a run and gun team for a while,

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Speaker 1: which is not what I expected coming in. Then he

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Speaker 1: got hurt, they kind of reformed in the defensive identity

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Speaker 1: that I was expecting with a huge lineup Richmond at

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Speaker 1: point guard. But now if he's out, that is going

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Speaker 1: to be a serious problem. So that's that's one that's like,

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Speaker 1: as we record this on Sunday night, we don't know

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Speaker 1: exactly what his status will be. You got to monitor

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Speaker 1: it going forward.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think by the way Marquette there, they're fading here.

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Speaker 2: They were a wagon day, but they swept Villanova. They're

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Speaker 2: in the opposite side of the bracket. Are you souring

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Speaker 2: on this team of late?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've I came into the year and I was like,

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be awesome as an underdog. I

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Speaker 1: like them getting points, like kind of counted out. I

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Speaker 1: think shock is a great motivator. But then they got

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Speaker 1: maybe a little too high in some of the betting

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Speaker 1: markets the value because they won so many games. They

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Speaker 1: swept Villanova, they blew out Providence. They were like, okay,

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Speaker 1: look at this team go and then they were favored

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Speaker 1: a lot, and I just think they got to the

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Speaker 1: point where it was not the right circumstances to back them.

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Speaker 1: And they've obviously lost a few games down the stretch here,

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Speaker 1: so yeah, I'm sorry a little bit. But they do

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Speaker 1: have ab arguably the best player in the league in

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Speaker 1: Justin Lewis, and that's always a huge asset as you

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Speaker 1: enter postseason played because you want to be able to

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Speaker 1: throw in the ball and rely on somebody to get

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Speaker 1: you buckets.

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Speaker 2: Yep, we're kind of an agreement here. I think if

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Speaker 2: you're going to take a future, if you don't want

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Speaker 2: to get too crazy, I think Providence has the value

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Speaker 2: up top. And by the way, everyone's gonnaut they get lucky,

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Speaker 2: they're lucky. They win them every game by one to

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Speaker 2: five points. Well, that works in a big eastornament when

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Speaker 2: you just need to win games. We're not talking about

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Speaker 2: covering six here. We're talking about advancing against some potentially

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Speaker 2: wounded and or fading teams just to get to the final.

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Speaker 2: And then, keep in mind, I mean Providence, with like

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Speaker 2: nothing to play for, played and granted the shock quality

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Speaker 2: market as a seventeen but lost. They didn't have him,

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Speaker 2: but they played Villanova tough. It's a it's a veteran,

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Speaker 2: well coached team. They also got a lot of rest.

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Speaker 2: They didn't play this weekend, and they don't have a bench. Really,

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Speaker 2: it's not a deep team's gonna win three games in

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Speaker 2: three day. So I think that rest helps. And if

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Speaker 2: you want to take a flyer, I think we both

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Speaker 2: agree that it's Saint John's. The problem is you got

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Speaker 2: a land mine with the Paul in a game that

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Speaker 2: could uh you know, de Paul could realistically win in

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Speaker 2: a shootout. Should be a very entertaining game to watch.

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Speaker 2: But look, Saint John's, can they win four games in

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Speaker 2: four days? I mean, it's a team that plays fast,

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Speaker 2: tries to muck it up, and you know, but they're

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Speaker 2: gonna play Nova, They're gonna play Yukon. It's gonna be

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Speaker 2: it's not gonna be as many possessions. But as you said,

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Speaker 2: they've given Nova trouble in the past. This year against

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Speaker 2: Connecticut on the road they lost in overtime, and at

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Speaker 2: home they lost by three. You know, and they have

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Speaker 2: a ton of talent and they kind of just ugly

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Speaker 2: up games. So I think that's the way to go.

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Speaker 1: One more, one more that sort of intrigues me, just

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Speaker 1: because I said, like, if I want to take a flyer,

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Speaker 1: be the top half. I did see one price of

278
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Speaker 1: Butler eighty to one and if they you know, Savis fading.

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Speaker 1: They almost beat Providence. Granted it was without Durham and

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Speaker 1: it was that Hinkle, but they're playing a lot better

281
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Speaker 1: with Hodges eighty to one. And that kind of open

282
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Speaker 1: ish top half of the bracket isn't isn't something. I

283
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Speaker 1: hate that that is getting a little wild with with

284
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Speaker 1: the Bulldogs, but it's at least worth a glance.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, there's no one that when you know

286
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Speaker 2: now that they're fully healthy, and if you look, I

287
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Speaker 2: mean just without Hodges, and I mean the results were ugly,

288
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Speaker 2: but now that they're fully healthy, there's no one on

289
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Speaker 2: that top half the bracket that they can't beat on

290
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Speaker 2: their good day. So yeah, I don't hate that at all.

291
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Speaker 2: First any you know, we have three first round games

292
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Speaker 2: and then we have Creighton. Marquette is already set. Any

293
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Speaker 2: of them stick out for a potential betting opportunity or

294
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Speaker 2: something down the line for a matchup that might pop up.

295
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Speaker 1: I think you should live bet Georgetown when they get

296
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Speaker 1: down twenty points because that's what they do and then

297
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Speaker 1: they always charge back. And we saw you have a

298
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Speaker 1: good tournament last year, So that's one thing I would

299
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Speaker 1: look at. I'm sure they'll get down big againt Seaton Hall,

300
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Speaker 1: and then I'd probably be looking to back Marquette just

301
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Speaker 1: because of the Nemhart injury. I still think Creighton's a

302
00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 1: little bit overvalued in the market because honestly, because they

303
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,520
Speaker 1: had a good performance without him, maybe the line isn't

304
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Speaker 1: getting knocked because of his absence. So Marquette would be

305
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Speaker 1: a team I'd be looking at too.

306
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Speaker 2: Yeah, which Georgetown, I guess it depends someone on Richmond's status.

307
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Speaker 2: George is gonna be plus twelve against against Seaton Hall

308
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Speaker 2: and then lose by eleven on a back door. I

309
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Speaker 2: mean that's I feel like that's been like the last

310
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Speaker 2: two weeks. They're like plus twelve and they lose by

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Speaker 2: eleven after they get down by twenty.

312
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Speaker 1: Yep, it's automatic, like clockwork.

313
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Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there in the Big East. Let's

314
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Speaker 2: move on. Let's let's get the south Land out of

315
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Speaker 2: the way. We have Southland March ninth through the twelfth

316
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Speaker 2: in Katie, Texas eighteen Tournament. Nichols and SELA, Southeast Louisiana

317
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,560
Speaker 2: have double buys, Texas A and M Corpus Christia and

318
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Speaker 2: New Orleans have sing byes. Before we get in another

319
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Speaker 2: trivia question, This one I don't think that you'll ever get,

320
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Speaker 2: but I'll throw it out there. Which team has the

321
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Speaker 2: most Southland titles in its history?

322
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Speaker 1: Does it have to still be in the league or

323
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Speaker 1: is it this ever? Okay, then I will say, ut,

324
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Speaker 1: either Arlington or San Antonio. I'll go with Arlington.

325
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Speaker 2: Not a bad guess, but it's you're in the right conference.

326
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Speaker 2: It's well, it's actually Northeast Louisiana which became UL Monroe. Yeah, so, yeah,

327
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Speaker 2: no one. I didn't know that. I had to look

328
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Speaker 2: it up.

329
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Speaker 1: I just I just wrote. I wrote this up for

330
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Speaker 1: for the for the action site, and I was going

331
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Speaker 1: through the historical winners and I was like, oh, U

332
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Speaker 1: T s A, what a Southland title? U T Arlington.

333
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Speaker 1: So that's the only reason I even knew Arlington could

334
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Speaker 1: be a guest.

335
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Speaker 2: Well, speaking of the craziness, as Southland, last year's champion

336
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Speaker 2: is no longer in the conference. Abilene Christian wanted it

337
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Speaker 2: as a two seed last year. By the way, we

338
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Speaker 2: have to I think we have to talk about that

339
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 2: Houston Baptist McNeese State game four overtime game. One of

340
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,680
Speaker 2: the worst beats I've ever seen. There was mcneice's plus

341
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,480
Speaker 2: mcneese's plus two plus three. They had a game winning three,

342
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:19,840
Speaker 2: but a kid ran on over the court and they

343
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,680
Speaker 2: got a technical. Then I went to four overtimes and

344
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 2: they lost by five. Not the best strategy by those teams,

345
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 2: by the way, ahead of the conference tournament where they

346
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 2: have to win four games in four days, to go

347
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 2: four overtimes.

348
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Speaker 1: On Saturday, one hundred and seventeen possessions. Yeah, that's that's

349
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,040
Speaker 1: not advisable to play like a game and a half

350
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Speaker 1: instead of one game.

351
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I take it. So let's see. I mean, Nichols

352
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 2: State's the favorite. They're plus one fifteen last turning appearance

353
00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 2: for Nichols nineteen ninety eight, New Orleans plus three ninety

354
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 2: se LA plus five hundred McNee seventeen to one. Then

355
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 2: you're getting down like Houston Baptist twenty three to one

356
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 2: or Western State twenty seven one. I just pulled these

357
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,160
Speaker 2: from one book. Obviously, prices are gonna vary. Nickel State

358
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 2: is the favorite. They're the team that I think is

359
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,639
Speaker 2: clearly the best in this conference. I mean, you know,

360
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:08,680
Speaker 2: we saw them earlier this year. They you know, they

361
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,000
Speaker 2: competed at TCU, they competed at Wisconsin. One of the

362
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 2: things that really scares me about them they did get

363
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,680
Speaker 2: triple swept by Southeast Louisiana. They played in like a

364
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:24,239
Speaker 2: non neutral, non conference like conference tournament. It was.

365
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 1: It was at the same same building they played in Katie, Texas.

366
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:28,880
Speaker 1: So everybody's got familiarity here.

367
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Speaker 2: Good point there. The thing that scares me. I had

368
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 2: them at at Nichols in the latest game and they

369
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 2: were up by like twenty three in the second f

370
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 2: and lost by two. And it wasn't I don't. I

371
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,640
Speaker 2: don't even think this was part of the reason. Yeah,

372
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 2: they were only four of eight from the line. But

373
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 2: they are horrendous at the free throw line, which scares me.

374
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 2: With Nickel State, they're like sixty two percent. Just something

375
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:52,960
Speaker 2: that through out there. But I think they're the best

376
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 2: team in the conference. I don't know if I'm running

377
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 2: to bet plus one fifteen, but do you think that

378
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,240
Speaker 2: they're the lear class and is that the side or

379
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,120
Speaker 2: is there a long shot worth investing in what's your

380
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 2: thoughts on this bracket.

381
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:07,479
Speaker 1: I think they're the clear favorite, but I like you,

382
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 1: I don't really like the price. One thing they note

383
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 1: on the free throw percent I think usually a lot

384
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 1: of those teams that are terrible at the line are

385
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,239
Speaker 1: because one guy is like forty percent, but they just

386
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 1: have everybody on their team shoots sixty percent. Like they

387
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 1: don't have two good free throw guys to give it

388
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 1: too late because no one on their team is efficient line.

389
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, that that is a huge problem.

390
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 2: The guys that are in like the forties and thirties too, Yes,

391
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:31,479
Speaker 2: they don't have a high vinue, but it's like I

392
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 2: just go look at their roster and their free throw percentage.

393
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 2: It's it's it's stunning. You don't have like a at

394
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 2: the end of the game. You don't have a guard

395
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: to throw too. That's like your one guard that could

396
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 2: hit eighty five percent. Even if the you know, the

397
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 2: rest of your team, like the Memphis teams that they

398
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 2: would have at least one guard, they don't have any.

399
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, so the the preseason tournament or whatever

400
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 1: they played in early January, Southeast New Louisiana won that

401
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: one because they shot fifty percent from three over three games.

402
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 1: They're forty for seventy nine over that span, which obviously

403
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 1: probably not repeated. But they did triple sweet Nickels, and

404
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 1: I think that's a point worth noting because SILA also

405
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: ended up getting to double buy. Because New Orleans lost

406
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 1: in the final day to Nichols, they dropped from the

407
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 1: one to the three, and that's that kind of sets

408
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 1: up well for SELA that they don't have to play

409
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: Nichols till the final price wise, though, nothing really excited

410
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 1: me here. I feel like the lines are kind of

411
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 1: around where I would put them. None of the long

412
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 1: shots playing that opening day have any intrigued to me whatsoever.

413
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 1: I think all four of those teams are bad. None

414
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 1: of them are going to win four in four days,

415
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 1: so it probably comes down to Nichols. I just I

416
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 1: don't have an exciting future bet here unfortunately.

417
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,119
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean Texas A and m Corpus Christy was

418
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 2: intriguing earlier in the season. They were a really surprising

419
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,199
Speaker 2: team and kind of jumped up the analytical you know,

420
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 2: metrics and power rating systems across the board, because I

421
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 2: mean they were some people, what do they They probably started

422
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 2: at like three forty six or something on Kempom. They

423
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 2: like considered maybe a bottom ten team. They were better

424
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: than expected, but they kind of faded down the stretch,

425
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, some of the teams kind

426
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: of figured out Corpus Christy. Is that kind of your

427
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 2: thoughts on them. I mean, they did end up loot

428
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:18,120
Speaker 2: winning four of five to close the year, but again,

429
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 2: we play some bad teams in this league.

430
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 1: Right and lots is that their new coach, first year coach,

431
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: is a Matt Painter guy, coming off the staff at Purdue.

432
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,360
Speaker 1: So a system that maybe you get better at defending

433
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: the second time you see it because it's a lot

434
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: of motion, a lot of off ball action. So perhaps

435
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: some of the teams to get better. The one thing

436
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 1: I do like, and maybe this is kind of getting

437
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,120
Speaker 1: into the specific matchup stuff, is they're seven and three

438
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: against the spread as a dog. They were really good

439
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: in the non con against power conference teams, and so

440
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 1: I kind of like them. If they get to the

441
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: semi finals, even though they'll be playing a second game

442
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: in two days, whether they're looking at the bracket, they'll

443
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 1: be playing Nickels, I think they can kind of hang

444
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 1: around as a dog in that one. So that's one

445
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: like specific matchup angle I'm looking at. But their future

446
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred or so that seems fair Like I

447
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 1: don't have a strong value take there.

448
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the difference for me, even though they

449
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 2: did get triple swept is like Nickels State has a

450
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 2: decent offense and a decent defense for Disquald, I mean,

451
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 2: I think they're the best the best offense, uh and

452
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: the bet you could argue Sea Lows the best offense,

453
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: not by much, but Sea Liows defense is just terrible,

454
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: like just horrendous. And then you have you know, some

455
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 2: other teams where it's like their offense is good but

456
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: they're defense. So I just think Nichols is the most

457
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 2: solid across the.

458
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: Board and probably has the best player too, which helps.

459
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, and if you like, if you if you're

460
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 2: not familiar with the south Land, a lot of pace.

461
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 2: These teams want to play faster outside of Incarnate Word

462
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 2: who likes to crawl. But there's a lot of pace.

463
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 2: And then you mentioned so here's a curious angle. We'll

464
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 2: get into some because I agree there's not much value

465
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 2: from a few perspective. You said that they played you know,

466
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:07,360
Speaker 2: same building. They played that at that random conference tournament,

467
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 2: non conference conference tournament in the middle of the year

468
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,959
Speaker 2: that didn't count towards their conference record, same building, A

469
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 2: lot of pace in this conference familiarity is the potential

470
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: for some overs here. Is there anything in the first

471
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 2: you know, some of the first round matchups that intrigue

472
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: you or anything there?

473
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: I think overs are worth a look there. The one

474
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 1: thing I remember, and I the last two games of

475
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: that tournament, I blind that the unders on the third

476
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 1: day because clearly like the teams that kind of run

477
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: out of gas, and I think all four unders hit

478
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: on the third day of the tournament. So if you

479
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: get a couple of teams playing third game in three days,

480
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: if you get some upsets in the final, I think

481
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: unders are worth the look. But the early rounds are

482
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: heavy overs. The teams shot really well in this gym

483
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: in that preseason tournament, Sila especially, but other teams did

484
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: did as well, So I think early overs. And then

485
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 1: when the legs go final round, maybe get an inflated

486
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 1: number because of the early round. Then you bet the

487
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 1: under in the final.

488
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be curious. I would definitely prefer with Northwestern

489
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: State and McNeice, But I mean, look, you have to

490
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: worry about the do you have to worry about the

491
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 2: legs for Houston Baptists and the legs for McNeice. Incarnate

492
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 2: word wants to crawl it. So maybe there's more questions

493
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 2: than I thought. And let's see Incarnate Word Houston Baptist.

494
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,719
Speaker 2: Their games were eighty two, sixty eight and sixty eight

495
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: sixty five this year and then Northwestern and McNeice eighty

496
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 2: to seventy five and ninety three to eighty four. And

497
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 2: by the way, legs can also hurt you on defense,

498
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 2: so I think I might prefer the Northwestern state McNeese

499
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 2: state over anything from a side perspective or no, we're

500
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 2: dealing with dregs here.

501
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean the first day, like McNeice is

502
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 1: the only one that's not a complete dumpster fire, So

503
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: maybe they're worth a look if they're dialed in, like

504
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: they have some transfers from like VCU and Southern Illinois,

505
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: like some pretty decent down transfers that can actually be solid.

506
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 1: So I think if they actually play to their level,

507
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 1: they're a category above their opening round opponent.

508
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, let's move on to our next conference.

509
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 2: Let's talk Conference USA takes place March eighth through the

510
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: twelfth the Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. Fourteen team tournament,

511
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 2: North Texas, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, u AB get

512
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: a double buy into the quarter sixteens get a single

513
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 2: by two round one games FYU Marshall and UTSA Southern Miss.

514
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 2: We won't even get into their futures. They'd have to

515
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 2: win five games in five days and they're just not

516
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 2: worth considering defending CHAT North Texas. They were a three

517
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 2: seed since the this, I mean this tournament, This conference

518
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: has changed a lot, you know since post Memphis days,

519
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: which is what it looks like the closest that it's

520
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 2: looked to what it is today. The lowest seeds to

521
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 2: win Marshall four seed into twenty eighteen. But this this tournament,

522
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: the bracket has like weird like three West and four

523
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 2: West and but UABA four seed in twenty to fifteen

524
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: to one trivia qu Here before we get into the odds,

525
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 2: only two current members have multiple Conference USA titles, Charlotte's

526
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: Charlotte and the other is Middle Tennessee the HF two Wow.

527
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: I think Memphis has the most Conference USA titles. Yeah,

528
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 2: I think Memphis has seven.

529
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: Can I say something about just the general setup of

530
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: this league. It's absolutely It's played at a football stadium and

531
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: they have a divider in the middle and they have

532
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: two courts. So it's like this weird shooting background. Unders

533
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: have been really struggles the Beast. So because of this

534
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: weird background, because there's two games going out at once,

535
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: I would keep an eye on unders. If you're on

536
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: the fence, an under is probably a good play here.

537
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's It's really interesting in that markets across the

538
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: board in all sports and in college basketball is included

539
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 2: and that are getting more efficient. But you just have these,

540
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: you know, these certain arenas that I do. The market

541
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 2: just doesn't go low enough on some of these totals.

542
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: We see it. We saw with the Valley again. I

543
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 2: mean I went in ten years, what are the valley

544
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 2: total is going to be one hundred and five? They

545
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: keep going lower and then they keep just going under.

546
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 2: That's I just don't think that that that is conducive

547
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: to the shooting that stadium. But you're right, the Conference

548
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 2: USA under seven, Lute, I'm assuming if you're an early

549
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: better low limits like I'm assuming most of these totals

550
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: are gonna get steamed down. Yeah, I'm open, all right,

551
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: let's uh getting into the av's the favorite, not North Texas.

552
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 2: Who's the one seed plus one? Said? Pretty pretty close?

553
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: North Texas plus one eighty five. You may be one

554
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 2: at North Texas, but they lost by one at home

555
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 2: North Texas. Let me go through these odds first and

556
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 2: we'll get into some of these seams. LA Tech plus

557
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: eight fifty, Western Kentucky plus nine fifty, Middle Tennessee, the

558
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 2: covering machines ten to one, FAU eighteen to one, UTEP

559
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 2: thirty five to one, Charlotte forty to one, ODU sixty

560
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 2: five to one. So North Texas is up top. You

561
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 2: know they have Western Kentucky, LA Tech. Let's start up top.

562
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 2: I mean, North Texas just an incredible defense. They just

563
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 2: grind games to a halt. Very well coached, but they're

564
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 2: gonna be in close games. They tend to just just

565
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: find ways to win all these close games. But it's

566
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: not like once they played some of these good teams,

567
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 2: you're gonna have a shot. Louisiana Tech would be Look,

568
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: I've backed them a couple of times and have not

569
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 2: had success against these top teams. They're zero and four

570
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: against UAB and North Texas LA Tech at plus eight

571
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 2: to fifty. They have to play in the second round,

572
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 2: which means they'd have to win four games in four days,

573
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: which is an ideal. They'd have to beat, you know,

574
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: winner of FIU Marshall as they should, then Western Kentucky,

575
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: then presumably North Texas. Lofton's the stud this team. It's

576
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: just there's just something that's missing. I don't I don't

577
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 2: quite know what it is with La Tech, But can

578
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 2: they put it together here? And is there any value

579
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: in the top half there or is it just North

580
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: Texas gonna strangle everybody.

581
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: I think there's some value with them or Western Kentucky.

582
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: I think both of those teams. Western Kentucky has trended

583
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: way up. They started two and six and are now

584
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: eleven and seven and getting one of the double buys

585
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: like that. That is pretty impressive for a team that

586
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: started floundering like they did. I've got a seven foot

587
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 1: six shot blocker. There's some weird idiosyncrasies about preparing to

588
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: play against that team that I think are tricky in

589
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: a one game turnaround. So I think, yeah, if you

590
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: have a preference between Louisiana Tech or Western Kentucky. Either

591
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: one of those is worth playing. And I saw a

592
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: sixteen to one out there in Western Kentucky that I

593
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 1: thought was definitely worth a look because that they're already

594
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: in the quarterfinals. They've beat in Louisiana Tech. They were

595
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: right there with North Texas, so I think that that

596
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 1: might be worth a looking. North Texas isn't so categorically

597
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 1: above these other teams because of the style they play

598
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: that they're going to like consistently bowl them out, So

599
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: they're not like a huge favorite. I like backing.

600
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, well Western Kentucky, but they lost by one at

601
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech. What can you put your finger on what

602
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: exactly is off just against the top teams for Louisiana Tech,

603
00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: Like what is missing?

604
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: It's probably a little bit guard play. I think their

605
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: guards are fine, but there's not like a Okay Lake

606
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: game run a pick and roll you will create for

607
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 1: yourself or others. It's just tough when your best offensive

608
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: player is clearly a big man that is a lot

609
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: easier to double and keep the ball out of his hands.

610
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 2: Now, North Texas, this I mean North Texas been I'm

611
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 2: a huge fan of McCaslin, North Texas coach and by

612
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: the way, you mentioned like weird prep tournament setting. He's

613
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: an incredible coach. That could hurt North Texas here right,

614
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,719
Speaker 2: like lack of prep time and quick turnarounds. But you know,

615
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: under him, if you look at some of the three

616
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 2: point percentages, it's always gonna be an incredible defense. But

617
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: it's not like they're elite elite in three point percentage allowed.

618
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 2: I didn't think they were gonna be as good as

619
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: last year, but they are. Tyler Perry's a stud. But

620
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 2: teams in the league are shooting twenty eight percent from three.

621
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: They're also shooting forty percent from three. Is that sustainable?

622
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: Is there a potential regression coming from North Texas?

623
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit. I think the the one thing

624
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: they do do is a lot of those attempts are

625
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: late in the shot clock forces because of how they

626
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: elongate the shot clock, they give up the average the

627
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: longest average possession length in the conference. I think that's

628
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: reflective of how many times teams are against the shot

629
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: clock and they just kind of got to throw something up.

630
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, the North Texas offensive three point percentage is

631
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: a little surprising to me. I think they have some

632
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: good shooters. I love Tyler Perry, but the rest of

633
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: the rosters, it's just solid to me. Not really a

634
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: forty percent high volume type of team. So maybe a

635
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: little bit of aggression both ways, but not too severe.

636
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, North Texas. And by the way, they take away

637
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: the three I mean you just like they're the fifth

638
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 2: in the nation in three point eight. All right, let's

639
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: move down to the bottom half of the bracket, which

640
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee is the one seed, one of the most

641
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 2: surprising pleasant surprises in the country. The two seed is UAB,

642
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: who's just a wagon. I love Jordan Jelly Walker. They

643
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: want at North Texas lost by one at Home. Like

644
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: I said, one of the things with you, Ab, maybe

645
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: you can help me crack the code because I love

646
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: this team. I think they'd be dangerous if they get

647
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 2: into the couple head scratching like loss like you know,

648
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: losing at Marshall, losing it Rice, losing at ODU. Just

649
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,239
Speaker 2: didn't expect that from them, those three losses. But this

650
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: team has a ton of potential. There's a reason that

651
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: they're favored, deserve it favored. What do you think? Yeah?

652
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: Probably they also I think set up really well for

653
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: a tournament because they have so much depth that they

654
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: can really kind of go like too deep at every spot.

655
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be deterred by playing

656
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: three games in three days, and they also will press.

657
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: They will take advantage of that depth. It's not just like, hey,

658
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: we've got ten guys that could play, it's we will

659
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: hurl them at you in waves, take out your legs,

660
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: and they will. They're a good second half team because

661
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: of that. The pressure just kind of takes its toll

662
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 1: over time. So I definitely buy them as a viable

663
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: candidate here. They have a ton of transfer talent, Like

664
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: you look at the pedigree of the guys on the

665
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: roster and where they came from. There's a couple of

666
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: SEC guys, there's a couple of ACC guys. That just

667
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: tells you how talented this team is. And yeah, the

668
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: weird balls, I kind of give the losses that you mentioned.

669
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: I give a little bit of the doldrums of the

670
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: season credit to that. They knew they were not really

671
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: in the mix for an at large, so I give

672
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: them a little bit of a pass. And I think

673
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: this is where we see the best version of them

674
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: is in the postseason.

675
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: Staying in the bottom half. Maybe you want to talk

676
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: about Middle Tennessee State, who's the one seed, but they're

677
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 2: ten to one. I think that a lot of people

678
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: might potentially be intrigued by UTEP. They're thirty five to one.

679
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: You know, boom enemy, you got Kennedy back. They just

680
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: beat North Texas to close out the year, pretty much

681
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: competed with all the top teams in the conference. Is

682
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: this team dangerous?

683
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm nodding emphatically as you discussed u TEP. I

684
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: think the odds for them are a little crazy because

685
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, while a cover machine, isn't like this impossible

686
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: team to beat in the quarterfinals. I think it's a

687
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: decent draw for them, Like they don't have to go

688
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: through UAB or North Texas to get to the Semis.

689
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: And yeah, getting Kennedy back is enormous. They lost the

690
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 1: first game with him back, but it was a close

691
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: one to UAB by three, and then that you mentioned

692
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: they beat North Texas. Kennedy played all forty minutes. He's

693
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: averaging almost seventeen a game in his last two since

694
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: coming back. Adds another down transfer wing athlete that upgrades

695
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: the talent and the depth. I think they are definitely

696
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: a live dog in this field. And Joe Golding has

697
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: won postseason games before like that. That is the coach

698
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: who's proven that he can win this kind of single

699
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: elimination tournament. Knocked off Texas last year with inferior talent

700
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: Abboling Christians. So I like the coach combo with the

701
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: roster and the draw. UTEP I think is a really

702
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: good bet.

703
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 2: Yeah. They lost by three at home to UABA, They

704
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,239
Speaker 2: beat North Texas, they won at lock Tech, so they

705
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: can play with anyone, no concerns. But I mean they

706
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: lost by their one meeting with Middle Tennessee State. They

707
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 2: lost by twenty bad shooting variants and Kennedy wasn't back

708
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: for them. There's nothing from a matchup perspective that would

709
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: scare you the I mean, I think they have the

710
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: athletes to Middle Tennessee stay like speed, that's kind of

711
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: what their mo is, and then they get to the

712
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 2: line a ton and then they don't miss from the line.

713
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: But I don't see anything from a matchup perspective that

714
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 2: would scare me away from UTAP, Right, You agree.

715
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, And we don't know for sure what the

716
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: deal is with Josh Jefferson Middle Tennessee. He missed their

717
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: last two games of the year. They lost both. He

718
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: is mega important to them, like the speed and the

719
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: downhill play that you mentioned, like he's the facilitator of

720
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: the straw that serves the drink. I don't know if

721
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 1: it's off court stuff or an injury. They said undisclosed

722
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: was the reason given for why he missed those games.

723
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: So that's that's another small reason that I think UTEP

724
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: has some value because if he's still out or limited

725
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: or something that that just limits Middle Tennessee as a whole.

726
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: Now, I don't think this is going to be the line.

727
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: But if you're looking at this, if you just came

728
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: in blind, you didn't know anything about how dressen. Just

729
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 2: looking at my screen right now, you would say, oh, look,

730
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 2: Ken Pom has the UTEP. Old Dominion game is like

731
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 2: a toss up and Old Dominion is like seventy to

732
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 2: one and UTEP is thirty five to one. I think

733
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: Old Dominion kind of stinks, But any thoughts.

734
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: There, Yeah, I mean I'd love to get that game

735
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: at a pick them because UTEP is better. And yeah,

736
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 1: the Kennedy returns not factored into that the Ken Pom line.

737
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: I'm sure the odds makers will have it, you know,

738
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: lay in two and a half or something to frustrate

739
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: me immenseally. But I'll probably steal back the miners there

740
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: because I just think they're on the rise with Kennedy

741
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: back and a team that's undervalued in the market.

742
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: Still, maybe it'll get a soft open, but it'll it'll

743
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: get popped, trust me, yes, anything else from a future's perspective,

744
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: any other flyers or how about a prediction here.

745
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll predict that UAB wins. North Texas has been

746
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: awesome this year and has built maybe kind of a

747
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: fringe at large candidacy, but they've won a lot of

748
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 1: close games because of Tyler perry heroics. You hit a

749
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,760
Speaker 1: couple of beaters for them late. I don't think they're

750
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 1: quite the best team. They've suffocated some bad teams, which

751
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: has increased their UH analytical ranking. So I think you

752
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 1: a B wins, but not enough to bet the price

753
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: that they're currently laying.

754
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 2: I completely agree with you. Yeah, I think North Texas

755
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 2: has been a bit you know, we talked about some

756
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: of the shooting aggression but I got I want a lot,

757
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: a whole lot of close game. Look, I remember the

758
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 2: Florida Atlantic game. I had Florida Atlantic against them, Floridallantic misses,

759
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 2: a couple of wide open threes, then free throws in

760
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: a wide open lay up at the end, and just

761
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: did everything possible to lose that game. Uh, in a

762
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 2: game they easily could have won. So I agree, and

763
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: uh as you know, greative defense and as much that

764
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 2: I respect Caslyn, like I'm sorry, give me, give me

765
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 2: Jelly Walker and you av in the in the tournament

766
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: over North Texas just from a pure entertainment perspective. So

767
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 2: we're gonna have enough elite defenses like from the big

768
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: twelve that are getting in. We don't need North Texas also,

769
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: and give me you may be, but I agree. I

770
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 2: think Utepa's the shop around, that's the flyer worth taking

771
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: from the bottom half and middle Tennessee State of Jefferson

772
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: Gang Oh just even better.

773
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw forty five to one on them that

774
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 1: I'm probably going to take a swing at.

775
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 2: I agree, Minor Nation. Any first round matchups or potential

776
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 2: matchups from an individual game perspective that you have circled I.

777
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: Think Marshall's probably solid that in that opener, I just

778
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: think FIU is the last year. Look at how badly

779
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: they quit down the stretch, and I kind of feel

780
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: like they've done a little bit the same this year.

781
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: Marshall the team that was actually predicted to be quite

782
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: good in this league and has not been. And I

783
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 1: usually kind of like to trend back a little bit

784
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 1: to preseason expectations to where a team feels like this

785
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: is a reset, we can kind of earn some redemption

786
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: for our underperformance, and Marshall is good enough to do that.

787
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 1: There's also a chance this might be Dan Danntoni's last

788
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 1: coaching hurrah. Maybe there's a win one for Dan. Kind

789
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 1: of vibe going around that team.

790
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,040
Speaker 2: What happened with them this year.

791
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: Ah man, I wish I knew. I think they were

792
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 1: always one guard short, that they just kind of lack

793
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 1: any depth or creation at the point guard spot. When

794
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: Jared West left to go to Louisville, that really hurt him.

795
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: But they're more talented than what they've shown, especially with

796
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 1: Tavi on Kinsey in the lineup. So yeah, I can't

797
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 1: fully explain it, but it's one maybe made them a

798
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: Bilo candidate here.

799
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to what I think a lot

800
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 2: of people are excited for, and the part of this

801
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: episode that I'm most excited for, and that's the Mountain

802
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: West Conference Tournament, which should be electric March ninth through

803
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 2: twelfth to Thomas Max Center in Las Vegas, where Jim resides.

804
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 2: Eleven teams in the tournament. Five Buys, Boise, Wyoming, UNLV,

805
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 2: Colorida State, San Diego State. Round one games already set, Nevada,

806
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: New Mexico. It's a shame. I kind of wanted both

807
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: of them to kind of get a shot at some

808
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: of these big boys. Utah State, Air Force and Fresno,

809
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: San Jose State defending champ San Diego State. They were

810
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: the one seed. San Diego State was the five seed

811
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen, Wyoming was the four seed in twenty fifteen.

812
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: The lowest seed to win it was Colorado State number

813
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: six in two thousand and three. I'll get here's the

814
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: trivia question you might I think you'll know this last time.

815
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: The UNLV one was in two thousand and eight, and

816
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,879
Speaker 2: h who was the tournament MVP on that team.

817
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: Two thousand and eight UNLV man. That one's going to

818
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: escape me, Oh was it Kevin.

819
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: Kruger Not Kevin Krueger. I think he was in twenty

820
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. Yeah, tournament I thought.

821
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, this makes so much sense because

822
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 1: he's the coach.

823
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 2: Now. That's why it's the trivia question, yep, which I

824
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: was going to bring up after, which is why I

825
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 2: have that he was two thousand and seven. But wink Adams.

826
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: Wink Adams the tournament MVP the last time UNLV won it.

827
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 2: This is probably as much optimism as we've seen around you,

828
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 2: and they'll be heading into the Mountain West Conference sortament

829
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 2: in a few years. Let's take a look at the

830
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: odds here, and by the way, like there's seven teams

831
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: in the top eighty five on KEMPAM and you have now,

832
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: you have a healthy Nevada, you have a dangerous New

833
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: Mexico team that can score. This is just a load

834
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: of coverage. There's four teams that are safely in the

835
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 2: tory agree wholding safely in now.

836
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,280
Speaker 1: I think they're fringy. I think they they'd be sweating

837
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 1: if they lost to UNLV. I probably still have them in,

838
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 1: but it's not like a surefire lead Pipelock.

839
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: Okay, but Boise, Colorado State, and San Diego State are

840
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: certainly in. And there's teams that are talented enough to

841
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 2: take this down like UNLV BRCE Hamilton could do it.

842
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 2: Fresno State even I mean, they're gonna grind you down.

843
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 2: They're going to be in the game. We have a

844
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 2: first round draft pick on their team. Utah State even

845
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 2: underperformed but getting healthier. They played a lot of the

846
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 2: top teams very close. They can make a run here.

847
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 1: They want to take early in the year like they've

848
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 1: they've they've won a tournament before this season. Yep.

849
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: You have New Mexico who could just get hot, red hot.

850
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: They don't really play any defensive unfortunately, not gonna play

851
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: at the pit. And I don't think New Next events

852
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: travel as much as they used to. I remember going

853
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 2: to the Mountain West Conference tournament in Vegas back in

854
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: the day. New Mexico fans were incredible.

855
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: I went.

856
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 2: I remember I was at the Furdet game and he

857
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 2: scored fifty two against New Mexico, one of the best

858
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 2: live college because ever been to. But New Mexico could

859
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 2: score I don't think they're gonna take it all down.

860
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,359
Speaker 2: But Novada's healthy. Now. Look, I mean it just gave

861
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: us scare into San Diego State. They got everyone back

862
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 2: to the team some people said could win the conference

863
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 2: before the year started, dealt with some injuries, but now

864
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 2: they're trending back up. Unfortunately, Uh, we're not gonna talk

865
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 2: about San Jose State did not glance at their five

866
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 2: hundred to one uh Indoor air Force at two hundred

867
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 2: and ten one. But air Force could be tricky on

868
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 2: their day. So this is just a fascinating conference tournament.

869
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: The games should be electric. I actually think that you know,

870
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: of the teams that are safety end like Boys Collyouda State,

871
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 2: San Diego State, it might be better off for them

872
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 2: not to win this, like for their obviously they're gonna

873
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: try to win it, but like it's gonna be a

874
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 2: grid to win this, and then you have the and

875
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: then you have the NCATE tournament coming up. It's like,

876
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: you know, win a game or two get out and

877
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 2: because these are gonna be wars, it might end up

878
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: benefiting them next week. But the games are gonna be awesome.

879
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 2: Boise the favorite plus two eighty, they're the one seed

880
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 2: up top. They'll get the winner of Nevada and New

881
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: Mexico and then they would face the winner. If they

882
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 2: win that game, they face the winner of Wyoming and

883
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: U and all day. So let's start up top. We

884
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: did just see UNLB beat Wyoming. I don't think it's

885
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 2: out of the rama possibilities that you know Nevada could

886
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 2: beat Boise State. So a lot of intrigue up top.

887
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 2: We'll get to the bottom next. But what sticks out

888
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 2: to you up there?

889
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think didn Nevada gave him a heck of

890
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 1: a game in Boise recently? I think you and I

891
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: talked about how that line was crazy high at ten and.

892
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 2: Playing to clinch everything and it like came down to

893
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 2: the final minute.

894
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 1: Yep. So yeah, Like I just the the futures market

895
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: for this was so frustrating me because I was like,

896
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: they're also even, and it's it's really a if you

897
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,919
Speaker 1: have a team that you like, have a read on here,

898
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 1: it's that there's going to be a good price on

899
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: them because the market is such mixed opinions on what's

900
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 1: the best team and how to price all these teams

901
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: that if you shop around basically any one of these

902
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 1: squads you can find value on. So in that top half.

903
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 1: I fear for Wyoming. I think that's a tough matchup

904
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: for them with UNLV. They lost to you and LB,

905
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, and they didn't even get a good

906
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 1: Bryce Hamilton game. He only had three field goals in

907
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 1: that one. I think you ONLV played it correctly where

908
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: they guarded Maldonado and ek one v one and kind

909
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: of just took away the shooters and said, all right,

910
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: we dare you to like beat us one v one

911
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: with those guys, and they weren't quite able to. Maldonado

912
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: was dealing with his like I issue, I don't I

913
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: think he's you know, he's back. He's playing probably close

914
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,479
Speaker 1: to one hundred percent and maybe not all the way there.

915
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: So I'm still seeing that UNLV cinderella run with them

916
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: hosting the tournament, I think they at least get to

917
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 1: the semis and we see where they go from there.

918
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 2: You going against Wyoming, that's very rare this year your pokes,

919
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:18,959
Speaker 2: but they have kind of faded a bit. I would

920
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 2: have normally been worried about, like the UNLB post defense

921
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 2: doesn't really grade out excellently if you look at some seniors,

922
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 2: but they they played that great when they played Wyoming

923
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 2: and just face and they're playing awesome and Hamilton could

924
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: just take over a game at any point in time

925
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 2: and go nuclear. Any thoughts on Nevada, I mean like

926
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 2: a hundred, Like I think you could find maybe like

927
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,720
Speaker 2: one hundred to one out there. My problem with NLV

928
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: maybe I'm just stubborn because like you and I just

929
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 2: I should have done it, but I didn't. Like they

930
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 2: were like twenty eight to one like a month ago

931
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:51,879
Speaker 2: and I didn't do it.

932
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: And that I was like, I went to the UNLV

933
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 1: Colorado State game, you like in the week leading up

934
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 1: to that, they were twenty eight to one and I

935
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: I was there with like one of the writers for

936
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,439
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Review Journal. He's like, yeah, the hype

937
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 1: starting to go and then they dominated that game. The

938
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: odds are down and they came back up and they

939
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: were like twelve to one. It just completely shifted off

940
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 1: that game. I think the the momentum behind oh wow,

941
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 1: UNLV is back. So yeah, like I didn't want to

942
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: take the twelve because that twenty eight had been available

943
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 1: and now twelve is nowhere to be found either. So

944
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: that's what happens when they just like get paralyzed and

945
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 1: attached to the anchor to the old price.

946
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: Yep, nah, a biased that you should get rid of,

947
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 2: but it's still there at times. I mean money line rollover.

948
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: I don't think would pay more than ten to one

949
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: on UNLV because there's and you have to factor this

950
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 2: in when you think about my on oors, because there's

951
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,399
Speaker 2: risk of boys he goes down, so that I think

952
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 2: you have to plan to it like Nevadaica beat Boise

953
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,439
Speaker 2: State and then all of a sudden, you know, UNOV wins,

954
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 2: and then your favorite in the semis and so I

955
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 2: don't know if you'd like UNLV, I would still that

956
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: the future, but now that has a ton of potential.

957
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 2: And if they were their guards are hitting, they can

958
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: play with anyone in this conference. So getting you know,

959
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 2: eighty ninety to one for a little flyer, I don't

960
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 2: hate it with the pack.

961
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like what I said about Marshall, where it's

962
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: this team that has been they felt like they've really

963
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 1: underachieved and dealt with some injuries and now like this

964
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 1: is the time to salvage their season. Win four games

965
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,399
Speaker 1: in four days. They're not like when they're healthy, they're

966
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: not anywhere off the map talent wise compared to the

967
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: rest of these teams. Maybe Alford's a little behind in

968
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,439
Speaker 1: the coaching department then some of the other head guys

969
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: in this league. But with the talent they have in

970
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 1: the backcourt, between Shearfield and Cambridge, Warren Washington up front

971
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 1: holding it down in the paint, they are absolutely a

972
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:49,399
Speaker 1: candidate to go on a run. I don't think they're

973
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: anywhere like in a different class than Boise. So that's

974
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 1: a great price considering what the talent they have.

975
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,720
Speaker 2: And as much as I love House, it's just awesome

976
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 2: and him and Mashburn can score or with anyone the

977
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 2: tough shot makers, but I just they don't play enough

978
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 2: defense and away from the pit, don't I don't think

979
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 2: I can't see New Mexico. I could see the Mesico

980
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 2: maybe winning a game or two, and I don't think

981
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 2: they can put it together before in a role would

982
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:14,720
Speaker 2: you be there?

983
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I think the farthest thing would get would

984
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 1: be that semi and then playing with basically two guys

985
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: as their offense, you're gonna run out of gas for sure.

986
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, And they play super fast too, so legs could

987
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 2: become an issue, all right, let's go to the bottom

988
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 2: half of the bracket mentioned. Colorado State is plus three sixty.

989
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:36,959
Speaker 2: San Diego State is plus three seventy. Colorado State got

990
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 2: drilled in bas earlier this year, and then they were

991
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:44,439
Speaker 2: drilling San Diego State, and unfortunately for me, they blew

992
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 2: a twenty point lead like ten minutes ago and then

993
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 2: hit a buzzer beater to win it. So they split.

994
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 2: In the regular season, Colorado State, the two seed will

995
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: have to first play the winner of Utah State and

996
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 2: air Force. Tricky Utah State team might get some value

997
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 2: in Utah State. Again, it's Colorido State in that game.

998
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 2: Talk about that shortly. San Diego State will play the

999
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: winner of San Jose State Fresno State, which means that

1000
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 2: San Diego State will play Fresno State on Thursday. And

1001
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 2: Fresno State just took them to double overtime at San

1002
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 2: Diego State on Thursday. Orlando Robinson is incredible to dian

1003
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: Diego State defense is incredible, but Fresno State can play

1004
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 2: some themselves. The game will probably be like forty eight

1005
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 2: to forty six with a minute to go. Presnoka will

1006
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: have a chance to win that game, So again intriguing

1007
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: bottom half. Can Fresno State or Utah State make some

1008
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: noise here against two teams that are safely in the field,

1009
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: So maybe you get some desperate, a desperate want run

1010
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 2: from one of these teams that definitely has potential to

1011
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 2: make some noise. What are you seeing in the bottom half?

1012
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, you kind of alluded to it with the score

1013
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 1: prediction there, forty forty six with a minute left. Like

1014
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 1: this is the opposite of the Southland, where like almost

1015
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: every team wants to play slow at a crawl besides

1016
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: that of New Mexico who played each other in the

1017
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:08,240
Speaker 1: first round. Fresno games are like close to auto unders

1018
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 1: for me at this point because they are so slow,

1019
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: and they're better defensively and they don't always feed their

1020
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: big man the way they should. But the fact that

1021
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 1: you have a lot of these slow teams means well

1022
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 1: possession games, which can lead to higher variance outcomes, which

1023
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 1: I think is good for taking a shot at somebody

1024
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 1: like Utah State or somebody like Fresno who have proven

1025
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: themselves time again to be as good as some of

1026
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 1: these at large teams that they're facing. They just haven't

1027
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,239
Speaker 1: gotten the wins necessary to be in the picture, but

1028
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: now coming down to a single elimination event, Yeah, I

1029
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: think it's worth taking a stab at them because you know,

1030
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 1: they're not the same quality as Boise in Colorado State

1031
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 1: and San Diego State, but they're good enough to beat

1032
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: them like on any given night. So I wouldn't want

1033
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: to back one of those top dogs at three to one.

1034
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: I'd much rather have Fresno or Utest State or somebody

1035
00:49:58,719 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 1: like ten or eleven to one.

1036
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it also helps with Fresno State the fact that,

1037
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: I mean, now you're gonna have to win four games

1038
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 2: in four days, but the first game is against San

1039
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 2: Jose State, and you mentioned they play slow, low possession games,

1040
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 2: so that helps too. With the legs if you're gonna

1041
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 2: get it done. San Diego State, I mean maybe maybe

1042
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 2: the urgencies there, but there, I mean, their defense is incredible,

1043
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 2: but they're also pretty relyant on like Matt Bradley going off,

1044
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 2: so if he has like an off shooting night, they

1045
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 2: could spell trouble. And like Kenny Just he seems to

1046
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 2: be going off whenever he wants, but he's got to

1047
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 2: do it three days in a row against really good defenses,

1048
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 2: So maybe they're a bit vulnerable. Any thoughts between. I

1049
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 2: guess a two part question. Do you have a preference

1050
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 2: for either you know you're gonna get a little better

1051
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: price on. Let's say Fresno is like ten to one,

1052
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 2: Utah States thirteen is to one at one book that

1053
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 2: I'm looking at right now, do you have any preference

1054
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 2: for one of those two if you wanted to take

1055
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 2: a long shot, And then thoughts on like Colorado State

1056
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 2: san Diego State, if it is indeed the rubber.

1057
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: Match, Yeah, I probably would like team in a vacuum.

1058
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 1: I prefer Uta State because I like their coaching. I

1059
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 1: think they can win in different ways more than Fresno

1060
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: State can. I think they can win basically one way,

1061
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 1: but the draw is better for Fresno. I view San

1062
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 1: Diego State as a little more vulnerable because how reliant

1063
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: they are on Bradley. Like you said, that's another team

1064
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 1: that basically wins by shutting you down and getting enough

1065
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 1: points offensively. They can't have the random game where their

1066
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:31,840
Speaker 1: offense goes crazy. So I would probably lean towards Fresno

1067
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 1: State just because of the path. But if we get

1068
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 1: Colorado State in San Diego State again, I have to

1069
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 1: lean towards the Aztecs. I know our mutual friend Jordan

1070
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 1: Majeski has joked about how Dutcher kind of owns Medved

1071
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,959
Speaker 1: but he has even that big, big comeback in Fort

1072
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,399
Speaker 1: Collins was kind of evidence of it, and how he's

1073
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,439
Speaker 1: able to frustrate a lot of what Colorado State wants

1074
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 1: to do offensively. So I would probably lean towards the

1075
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 1: Aztecs there if they get there. I just think they're

1076
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 1: more vulnerable to an upset in the core finals, which

1077
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 1: makes this one tricky for me to bet futures. I'll

1078
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: probably go and game by game in this one question for.

1079
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 2: Since I think you maybe went to one of these games,

1080
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 2: I know you watched them any maybe then this is

1081
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 2: another point for a un LV future. But UNLV destroyed

1082
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: Colorado State and then they destroyed them again. So was

1083
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 2: there anything to that from a matchup perspective? Was it

1084
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 2: just like fluky results? Is there something that UNLV did

1085
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 2: that really gave Colorado State problems? I mean it was

1086
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,240
Speaker 2: two blocks, pretty surprising them when they did it again.

1087
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got the vibe. It's just like the first half,

1088
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 1: especially Colorado State could not get anything anywhere near the paint.

1089
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 1: Like I don't know if UNLV just played a lot

1090
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 1: more compact and so be dairy to shoot over the

1091
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: top of us. We don't want David Roddy to beat

1092
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 1: us up inside. They didn't give up any driving lanes,

1093
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 1: but you and LV got up early in the home game,

1094
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 1: and it was because Colorado State was just throwing up

1095
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 1: long jumpers, threes or even long twos. I think you

1096
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:04,840
Speaker 1: only is very acutely aware of their lack of true size,

1097
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: so they try to do play a little more compact

1098
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 1: and force teams to beat them over the top. Now

1099
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 1: that caught up to them when Boise State was really

1100
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: hot a week later. I was at that game as well,

1101
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 1: but that definitely was an issue for Colorado State. And

1102
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 1: they have nobody to guard Brice Hamilton, Like, he's too

1103
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 1: quick for Tan Jay, He's too big for any of

1104
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:29,439
Speaker 1: their little guards and too quick for even Roddy as well,

1105
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 1: So I think he's a matchup nightmare. And then the

1106
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 1: way they defended Colorado State was really troublesome for them too.

1107
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, just just if you haven't been, like

1108
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 2: there's been a lot of people here listening that haven't

1109
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 2: been watching college basketball all year, there are some incredible,

1110
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 2: incredible individual players in this conference. I mean that can

1111
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: just take over a game at any point in time.

1112
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 2: If you haven't watched David Roddy play, I think he's

1113
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: is he on draft boards, but I think he might

1114
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 2: should at least start creeping up onto the NBA right Army.

1115
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 2: Matt Bradley is just a human torch. They got Orlando Robinson,

1116
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: who's just a freak at Fresno State, Bryce Hamilton at UNLV.

1117
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 2: You know you have the guards at Nevada, and I

1118
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:17,720
Speaker 2: mean it just goes on and on, just unbelievable talent.

1119
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: It's just a great Mountain West year. I'll end up

1120
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 2: with this question prediction on who too, I guess two

1121
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:25,440
Speaker 2: part question, prediction on who wins it, and then prediction

1122
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: on which team of the four that we think are in.

1123
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,879
Speaker 2: If we're going to assume that Wyoming is in has

1124
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: the highest ceiling in March once they get out of

1125
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 2: this conference, and maybe just some of the matchup I mean,

1126
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 2: like Wyoming is gonna provide matchup issues, just there are

1127
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 2: a lot of teams that can't defend the post and

1128
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 2: with what Modernado does. But who do you think the

1129
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 2: who do you think ends up winning this, and then

1130
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 2: who do you think has the highest ceiling in March.

1131
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:54,760
Speaker 1: I'll go bold and say un LV wins. I'll say

1132
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: they do the little kind of miracle run and the

1133
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 1: home court here, but the Bois matchup would concern me.

1134
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:03,720
Speaker 1: Like I said, I watched that and that was an issue.

1135
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,720
Speaker 1: But they have the capability of beating all these teams,

1136
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 1: So I'll give UNLV the nod there. As far as

1137
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 1: highest ceiling, I'm going to go Colorado State, and it's

1138
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 1: because I think kind of what I was saying earlier,

1139
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 1: they can win games in multiple different ways, whereas I

1140
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 1: think San Diego State kind of has to win with

1141
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,479
Speaker 1: defense and with Bradley having a great game, that's harder

1142
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,759
Speaker 1: to do multiple times in a row against teams that

1143
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 1: are really scouting for it. Boise have an awesome resume,

1144
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: but they won a lot of close games this year too,

1145
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 1: partially because Marcus Shafer is like kind of a late

1146
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 1: game genius just does not miss clutch shots. But I

1147
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 1: feel like Colorado State, with the combination of coaching Roddy

1148
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,399
Speaker 1: being a matchup problem in a really good point guard

1149
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 1: in Stevens, I'll give them the nod as highest ceiling here.

1150
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:51,200
Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, I'm going to go out. I'm

1151
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 2: going to say I'm gonna go out on a limit

1152
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 2: in san Nevada wins it.

1153
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 1: Oh wow, we're both getting bold.

1154
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 2: Here Nevada UNLV semi finals. And by the way, we've

1155
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 2: talked about this. They can talk this in a previous episode.

1156
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 2: Teams that sweep the regular season series, they're fifty two

1157
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: percent against the spread in the postseason covered tournaments. And

1158
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 2: you know that's that whole myth. You can't be the

1159
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 2: team three times, but you have to look at every

1160
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 2: individual case differently. You can't be the team three times.

1161
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 2: It's hard to be the team three dons whatever is

1162
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:23,400
Speaker 2: a myth. But you know you and l be swept Nevada.

1163
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 2: But not taking too much from that, I mean one

1164
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 2: game about it didn't have Sherfield in Washington and the

1165
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 2: other didn't have Cambridge, So like, does the sweet mean

1166
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: that much? No, So that could be an incredible game. Uh,

1167
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 2: I would favor you and'll be, but I'm getting a

1168
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:41,279
Speaker 2: lot better price to uh with the VATA. So yeah,

1169
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna get crazy and then it'll be

1170
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 2: I think I think one of these teams that's not

1171
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:49,759
Speaker 2: in is gonna win it in Vegas, and then we're

1172
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 2: gonna and then it's gonna be and then if you

1173
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:53,359
Speaker 2: want knows that means why we might have a sweat

1174
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:55,919
Speaker 2: and then it's gonna be sweating for five potential five

1175
00:56:55,960 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 2: mountain less teams. Yes in the dance, which is incredible.

1176
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 2: Any any individual games that we didn't touch on, the

1177
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 2: matchups that you were like salivating on first round or potential.

1178
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 1: I will probably back Air Force as a dog, even

1179
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 1: though I do love Uta State. I just think when

1180
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 1: that team is competent, they're playing like the weird Joe

1181
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: Scott zone type stuff. They're really frustrating to play against.

1182
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: And they had one performance against Utah State this year

1183
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: where they just totally frustrated them with that zone. Uta

1184
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 1: State had basically their worst offensive performance of the season.

1185
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 1: So Ken Palm's got that spread at thirteen. Yeah, I'll

1186
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 1: take double digits with the Falcons and that one. I

1187
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 1: think they hang around at least.

1188
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Utah State. I mean something to keep

1189
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 2: in mind here is like Utah State like that, I mean,

1190
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 2: the Air Force is gonna it's gonna grind you down

1191
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 2: right low possessions Utah States not extremely fast, but Utah

1192
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 2: State knows they have to win this to get in, right,

1193
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 2: And I mean, I guess they're on the far end

1194
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 2: of the bubble, but I don't think they have any

1195
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 2: chance of getting in that large. Have to win this

1196
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 2: to get in. They have Corrado State coming up, and

1197
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 2: then you know, get in four gays and four days.

1198
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 2: So like if you're up big late, like you don't

1199
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 2: push it right. So I could open the back door

1200
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 2: if if it's necessary at all, but define to keep

1201
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 2: in mind, I'm sure that they want to kind of

1202
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 2: reserve some minutes here.

1203
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 1: And air Force does not quit. Like if the back

1204
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 1: door's open, they will they will kick it down. That's

1205
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: kind of team that will.

1206
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 2: All right, Great stuff as always, Jim, great discussing these

1207
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: four conference. There's two other episodes. One I did with

1208
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 2: Matt and one I did with Kai. There are two

1209
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 2: members of the Three Men we've earlier today. They are

1210
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 2: out on the Big Bets on Campus feed. We will

1211
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: have episode live episodes Big Bets on Campus Live on Twitter.

1212
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:41,919
Speaker 2: Make sure you follow our feeds there. Follow the Three

1213
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 2: Men weave on Twitter. Follow Jim Route. What's your handle

1214
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 2: at just gym onund score rout.

1215
00:58:47,600 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 1: No, it's at second chance points.

1216
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, at second chance points. When did you come

1217
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 2: up with that? Was that like you're a form name?

1218
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: Or oh yeah, it was like when I first started

1219
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: writing about basketball, it's like I want to have some

1220
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 1: clever name that reflects my opinions and also is basketball related.

1221
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 1: And now it's kind of a bit of how it's

1222
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:08,960
Speaker 1: like an old ale instant messenger kind of name at

1223
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 1: this point.

1224
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all about the second chance points. All right,

1225
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 2: great stuff as always, enjoy the madness. Thanks for joining me,

1226
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:20,000
Speaker 2: Thanks everyone for listening. Good luck with all of your wages.

1227
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 2: Happy futures hunting. Make sure you shop around, by the way,

1228
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 2: there's a lot of books with a lot of different prices.

1229
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 2: There's no need to take a bad price. If you

1230
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 2: can simply open account somewhere else you get a better one.

1231
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 2: Can make all the difference in the world at the

1232
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 2: end of all of your future's portfolio and you hit

1233
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 2: a eighty to one instead of a fifty to one

1234
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 2: and matters just like it matters, and spread the betting

1235
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 2: as well. So thanks for listening. Make sure you subscribe

1236
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 2: on subscribe subscribe, Tell a friend tell an enemy, leave

1237
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 2: a review, well, do some giveaways. I think tomorrow my

1238
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 2: story wuld you really helps us out. Thanks for listening.

1239
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 2: Let's have a march, enjoy the madness, and we'll catch

1240
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 2: you all in it. Cheers,