1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,319 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: Brounoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I 6 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 2: have news Before we get to the news. This is 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: the last edition of Sound On as you know it, 8 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 2: as I know it. When we come back on Monday, 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: we'll be at an earlier time, twelve noon Washington time, 10 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: and it's going to work a little bit differently here, 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: and by that I mean in a better way. We'll 12 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 2: have our first hour on the radio as it is 13 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: now and on YouTube, and our second hour will be 14 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: carried when Kaylee Lines joins us for hour two will 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: be carried on Bloomberg TV. And I hope that you'll 16 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 2: be with us for the process. Our signature panel will 17 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: be here, Rick Davis and Gdi Shanzano, and you know 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: we like to do things big. We're going to start 19 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: this in New Hampshire on Monday. Yes, we're all getting 20 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: on planes this weekend to bring you the very latest 21 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,279 Speaker 2: from the first in the nation primary which could be 22 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: a last stand for Nicki Haley, it could be the 23 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: galvanizing moment for Donald Trump. It could be embarrassing for 24 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 2: Ronda Santis. We'll go through it together. And I have 25 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: news here. We've been talking poles all week, but this 26 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 2: is interesting and not the headline that I thought we'd 27 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: see today. Senator Tim Scott now set to endorse Donald 28 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: Trump just days out from the primary. A former candidate 29 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 2: and a man who is widely admired throughout the Republican 30 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: Party getting involved on this level is pretty incredible. 31 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 3: This is where we start. 32 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 2: Our conversation with Tim O'Brien Bloomberg opinion columnists, and of course, 33 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 2: as I mentioned, the man who wrote the book on 34 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,839 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, Trump Nation, The Art of being the Donald, 35 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 2: is with us in studio. It's always a pleasure to 36 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: have you in Washington. 37 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 3: Washington. 38 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 4: Snow is not bad snow. 39 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 3: I grew up in Chicago. It's sweepable, right, No one's 40 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 3: having a heart attack. 41 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 4: It always cracks me up how it shuts the city down. 42 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 3: It canceled school last night before a flake. It's coming on. 43 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 3: Do a whole show, all right. 44 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: Donald Trump would still fly in and go back home 45 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 2: and sleep in his own bed based on what we've seen. 46 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: I'm just are I want to talk to you about 47 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: the apparent inevitability storyline here, But. 48 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 3: First of all, are you surprised to hear about Tim Scott? 49 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 4: I'm not. I mean I think that, you know, I 50 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: think that anybody who sees them sees themselves as a 51 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 4: Republican in Donald Trump's Republican Party is inevitably going to 52 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 4: come in behind him. I think I think it's craven 53 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 4: because it's we're in primary season and so we haven't 54 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 4: really road tested these ideas with a general electorate. And 55 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 4: I think it was ordained that he was going to 56 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 4: do well in this primary because the most motivated part 57 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 4: of the Republican base comes out in the primaries, and 58 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 4: that's right now, the MAGA base. 59 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 2: Yes, you'd think maybe he'd do this on the eve 60 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: of South Carolina, which is still weeks away, but he's 61 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: jumping in before New Hampshire clearly an attempt to win 62 00:02:57,919 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 2: ow the field or maybe eliminate the field. 63 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 4: And I also think to get you know, a possible 64 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 4: position in a Trump administration, which is you know, and 65 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 4: I think, you know, I think one of the problems 66 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 4: with Nikki Haley's candidacy is that she hasn't been sharply 67 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 4: defining herself apart from Trump. She's watching people like Chris 68 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 4: Christy who fell by the wayside, who did so there's 69 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 4: a political calculation here in the. 70 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: Door open for something or just wants to be available 71 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: for the magabase if Donald Trump is not, I can't. 72 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: I I you know, that was Ronda Santis' strategies and 73 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 4: that has failed. And there is only one Donald Trump 74 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 4: for the MAGA bass And and I don't think Ronda 75 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: Santis was was Trump light. I think he was a 76 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 4: bad candidate. He lacks Trump's charisma, he lacks the real 77 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 4: emotional bond Trump has with his voters. And I don't 78 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 4: you can't fake that and and and it's a real 79 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 4: It's It's one of Trump's great political strengths and advantages 80 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 4: is that he has an authentic emotional bond with his 81 00:03:58,080 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 4: core supporters. 82 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: Well, so annoying him to the extent that you do, 83 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: are we really going through this all over again? Have 84 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 2: you committed yourself to another Trump Biden race? 85 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think it's gonna absolutely going to be 86 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: Donald Trump and Joe Biden. I think people that thought 87 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 4: Joe Biden was going to step aside misunderstand how long 88 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 4: he's wanted that job. People who thought Donald Trump was 89 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 4: going to step aside misunderstood how long he's wanted to 90 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 4: be perpetually in the public spotlight, and he's got legal 91 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 4: issues hanging over his head that his presidency would solve. 92 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 2: Joe Biden's conventional wisdom until now was that's the one 93 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 2: guy we want because we know we can beat it. 94 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 2: We were afraid more of a nicky Haley or maybe 95 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 2: Iron de Santis becoming the nominee. Is that a foolish view, 96 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 2: based particularly on some of the swing state. 97 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: Polling that Bloomberg has done. 98 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 4: I think that I think it's true that Trump is 99 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 4: the most ideal candidate for Joe Biden to run again. 100 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 3: You think he can beat him again. 101 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: I think it's going to be on our razor's edge. 102 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 4: I think that I think he would have had more 103 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 4: trouble with Nikki Haley than he will have with Donald Trump. 104 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 4: I think, yeah, I think she's I think she's she's 105 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 4: probably done. I think both she and Ran DeSantis are 106 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 4: done by South Carolina. I could be I could end 107 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 4: up being wrong. I think she'll come in second in 108 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 4: New Hampshire. The polls are suggesting she's eight points behind. 109 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 4: It might be more than that. DeSantis will be nowhere 110 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 4: in New Hampshire. And if she loses in South Carolina, 111 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 4: which is her home state, she was the governor of 112 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: South Carolina, I don't see how you know, Michigan follows 113 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 4: and then you have Super Tuesday, but we don't really 114 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 4: may not even get to Super Tuesday. And obviously it's 115 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 4: the same as true of Biden with the Democrats. It's 116 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 4: it's you know, he's going to be the nominae. 117 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: So this is be Donald Trump's well third technically presidential campaign. 118 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 2: What will in an emboldened post January sixth, emboldened Trump 119 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: look like this time. 120 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 4: Around as a candida, as president, as a candidate, as 121 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 4: a candidate, I think he'll do what he's continue to do, 122 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 4: which is you know that both the entrance and the 123 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 4: exit polls in Iowa two of the top responses for 124 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 4: why Trump appealed to his voters where he fights for 125 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 4: us and he shares our values. And I think when 126 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 4: when his supporters say he fights for us, he is 127 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 4: fighting for he identifies as being a victim despite the 128 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 4: fact that is a wealthy, white male who's had every 129 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 4: advantage in life. Uh, the idea that he's a victim 130 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 4: is comically absurd, but he understands, and he's played that 131 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 4: card repeatedly. I feel your pain. The institutions are out 132 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 4: to get you. They're out to get me. They're coming 133 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 4: at me in a different way. But yeah, yeah, and 134 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 4: a celebrity and a president, he has so many disadvantages, wealth, celebrity, 135 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 4: h white American like I just it's the things he's 136 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 4: had to struggle with or extraordinary, right, but spurs Yeah. 137 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 4: But uh, but you know he has said that, you know, 138 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 4: there's no traction of these legal against him, and is 139 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 4: the institution's coming at him in the same way they've 140 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 4: come after you, dear voters. Therefore, I might be a 141 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 4: dictator for a day. It'll only be a day. I 142 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 4: might try to run again after this administration. Who knows. 143 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 4: I know that legally I'm not allowed to, but I 144 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 4: might do it anyway, because you need a dictator to 145 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 4: take care of you. And you know this has real 146 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 4: traction with his voters. 147 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: A lot of people think they do. 148 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: Apparently, Yeah, and would go through thirty degree below zero 149 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 2: whether to caucus for him after dinner in Iowa. We're 150 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 2: watching this happen in real time. How far out of 151 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 2: the lines though? Could he be playing as a candidate 152 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: this time because he knows that he's the exception to 153 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 2: everywhere he is. 154 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 4: But also, you know, one of the things he's doing 155 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 4: now that he didn't do in twenty sixteen when he 156 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 4: first came on a scene in a seismic way, is 157 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 4: he has professionalized as campaign operation. You know, he had 158 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 4: I think over one thousand precinct captives on the ground 159 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 4: in Iowa. He wasn't there. He didn't need to be there. 160 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 4: The victory speech he gave in Iowa was for Donald 161 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 4: Trump about it as diplomatic as you get. It lasted 162 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 4: about ten seconds, but you got together like yes, you know, 163 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 4: and good job Mickey, and good job Ron, and my 164 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 4: mom and dad are looking at me from heaven and 165 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 4: all that stuff. And as opposed to you know, I'm 166 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 4: going to rip your your guts out and hang you 167 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,559 Speaker 4: in the public square, which is generally where he resides. 168 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: About twenty four hours before the racial slurs started, started 169 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 2: on Special Truth Social Yeah, the missives on Truth Social 170 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: or will suggest that we have not matured, may be 171 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,239 Speaker 2: gotten worse when. 172 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: It comes to that. 173 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 4: It works for him. It's not just I mean, we 174 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 4: have to really understand Donald Trump through the prism of 175 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 4: the people who support him, not just Donald Trump himself. 176 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 4: And what he has done is peeled back this band 177 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 4: aid on ideas we have in the US about how 178 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 4: much progress we've made around racial justice or economic equity 179 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 4: that that you know, there's still a lot of that 180 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 4: boiling over with the electorate itself. 181 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 3: Well, he sink a border deal if one comes along. 182 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 2: You know, he's on the phone apparently with the Speaker 183 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: of the House on the regular. 184 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 4: This Congress, and this Republican Congress has no interest in 185 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 4: getting a border deal done because they want to hang 186 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 4: the immigration albatross around. 187 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 3: So this is all Biden's neck there. 188 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 4: Are you know, Lindsey Graham is saying, there's a number 189 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 4: of Republicans We're saying, this is the best border deal 190 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 4: they're going to get, even if Trump comes in the 191 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 4: White House, it should get done. 192 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 3: Yet they're not going with experience. 193 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, so if they cared about public policy and taking 194 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 4: care of the border and our border states that are 195 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 4: dealing with an out of control migration problem. They would 196 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:25,559 Speaker 4: get this deal done, and they're not getting it done 197 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 4: to score political points. It doesn't make sense from a 198 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 4: public policy standpoint, it doesn't make sense from a national standpoint, 199 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 4: but it does make sense from scoring points. And I 200 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 4: think the Biden administration will have to point out to 201 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 4: voters that the reason immigration is now in chaos from 202 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 4: a policy standpoint and from an enforcement standpoint along the 203 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 4: border is because this Congress doesn't want to pass the 204 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 4: legislation that would address it. 205 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 2: It's going to be a tough sell because they hold 206 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 2: up HR two and then the thing goes around again. 207 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 2: You asked me as a candidate or as a president. 208 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: Now Donald Trump is a president. Let's see he closes 209 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 2: the deal. Then then we really drain the swamp. We 210 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 2: put in the action plan to replace the bureaucracy with 211 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 2: something we've never seen before. 212 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: Right. 213 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 4: I think there's two things that he will not drain 214 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 4: the swamp because he lives in the swamp and he 215 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 4: said he's going to drain it last time, and he 216 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 4: just brought in bigger alligators. 217 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 5: OK. 218 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 4: So he has no interest in sort of ending the 219 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 4: money wheel in Washington. I do think he has an 220 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 4: interest in dismantling the federal government the agencies that exists 221 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 4: as part of the executive branch. And I think in 222 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 4: an ideal world, we would have a very healthy public 223 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 4: debate about where expertise should reside around policy making, does 224 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 4: it should belong an agency should belong in the Congress 225 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 4: or in the Supreme Court, and then how do we 226 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 4: use that effectively to drive policy. That's not the conversation 227 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 4: he wants to have. He just wants to get rid 228 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 4: of most agencies, but keep the Defense Department and the 229 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 4: Justice Department so he can weaponize both against his critics. 230 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 3: Wow, are you ready to cover that? 231 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 4: We have to cover that. This is a seismic moment 232 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 4: in American history. This isn't just another political race. This 233 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 4: is really testing how we think about American democracy and 234 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 4: the rule of law and the constitution. I think the 235 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 4: more we covered as a horse race, and the less 236 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 4: we look at at foundationally who we are as a country. 237 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 4: I don't think we serve our listeners and readers, Well. 238 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 3: Well, you stay in touch with us through the year 239 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 3: on this program. 240 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 4: If you'll stay in touch with me, because I always 241 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 4: like talking. 242 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: To you, this is really important. I don't know if 243 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 2: I'm allowed to ask you this. What's it like to 244 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 2: be sued by Donald Trump? 245 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 4: Oh? You can ask me and I'll give you an 246 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 4: answer that drives my wife, who's a lawyer or not, 247 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 4: is that I actually enjoyed the process because we deposed him, 248 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 4: and we got access to his business records and bank records, 249 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 4: and through the litigation and the work stood up. The 250 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 4: court upheld the integrity of the work. 251 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 3: He lost. The case was. 252 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: Your phone ringing at night though people were driving by 253 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 2: the house. 254 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: Uh. 255 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 4: You know, there's always a price of covering Donald Trump, 256 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 4: where the people who support him come after you personally. 257 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 4: But se Levi Tim O'Brien, great to see you, Thanks 258 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 4: for coming. 259 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 2: We're off to New Hampshire tomorrow and we'll talk to 260 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 2: you when we get back. He runs the Bloomberg Opinion 261 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 2: operation here, which you can always find on the terminal 262 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: and at Bloomberg dot com. Tim O'Brien the author of 263 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 2: the book Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald. 264 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 2: As we get things started here going into a weekend 265 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 2: that might play in a very big way for Donald Trump. 266 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 3: Let's assemble the panel. Rick Davis and Geenie shanzin O. 267 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 2: We're here Bloomberg Politics contributors, Rick, you've spent more time 268 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 2: in New Hampshire than most Republican strategists. How are you 269 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 2: feeling on this weekend before the primary? 270 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 6: You know, I'm actually surprised there's not more sort of 271 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 6: cliff hanging indecision by people. The polls are all coming 272 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 6: in really consistent. You know, polling has got a rich 273 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 6: history in New Hampshire. There's an enormous amount of data 274 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 6: available from just really fantastic organizations that are used to 275 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 6: doing it, and it all usually turns out to be 276 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 6: a little bit wrong. So today we wake up and 277 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 6: Donald Trump winning this thing. He's got over fifty percent 278 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 6: and a few of these really credible surveys, and that's 279 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 6: going to be really hard to overcome for Nicky Haley. 280 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 6: For whatever reason, Donald Trump benefited from his time in 281 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 6: iowand she didn't. She's kind of stalled out in these 282 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 6: polls with what she had going into Iowa. And maybe 283 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 6: it was Vivic Ramaswami's the Vagus Ramaswami's endorsement in his votes, 284 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 6: But the bottom line is she's got to be really 285 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 6: coming from behind to make this work. And tons of 286 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 6: good questions out there about what level the independents are 287 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 6: going to show up, the unaffiliateds they always play an 288 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 6: important role in New Hampshire primary politics, and that's probably 289 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 6: the biggest question right now. 290 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 2: Genie Nicki Haley held a town hall on CNN last night. 291 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: She was asked about some of the insults that she's 292 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 2: been getting from Donald Trump recently. She said, do you 293 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 2: really want to eighty year olds running for president when 294 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 2: we have a country in a world on fire? But 295 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 2: she said I will continue to focus on things people 296 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 2: want to talk about and not get into name calling. 297 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 2: Is that the right tone here on the eve of 298 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 2: the primary? 299 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 7: It's not working for her, and the polls tell the story. 300 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 7: And I'm glad she was out on CNN, but quite frankly, 301 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 7: people in New Hampshire report she hasn't been out on 302 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 7: their airways enough. She needs a hail Mary at this point. 303 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 7: She doesn't seem like she is jumping at one. She's 304 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 7: turned down some interviews. She's been out on the stump, 305 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 7: but it's been in northern New Hampshire and other places, 306 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 7: so I'm not sure that her argument she's going to 307 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 7: stay above the freight is working for her. And in fact, 308 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 7: if you believe the polls they're saying it's not. 309 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 2: We're going to find out together. Rick and Jenie are 310 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: going with us. We're headed to New Hampshire this weekend. 311 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 2: We're going to pick up on this news of an 312 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 2: endorsement though as we get the panel's reaction to Tim 313 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 2: Scott making it official, coming in behind Donald Trump just 314 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 2: before New Hampshire. It's the fastest show in politics. From 315 00:14:55,880 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 2: Snowy Washington. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening 316 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken just live 317 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 2: weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay. 318 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: And enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 319 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 320 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 321 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 3: Piece of news from the White House. 322 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 2: In my constant effort to say something positive on this broadcast, 323 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 2: the government is not going to shut down today. 324 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 3: I say that officially. Just got word from the White House. 325 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 2: The President has signed the stopgap government funding bill that 326 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: Congress ushered through yesterday. 327 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 3: So there we go. 328 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 2: We head into this weekend without a shutdown on our hands. 329 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 2: The question is what happens in March, because we've got 330 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 2: another ladder here. This would mean an expiration March first 331 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 2: and on March eighth. And if you think about what's 332 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 2: going to happen in that period of time between Super Tuesday, 333 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: the potential start, the scheduled start of Donald Trump's trial, 334 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: and President Biden's State of the Union, that should be interesting. 335 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: None of these things happen in a vacuum, right, Keep 336 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 2: that in mind. Speaking of which, big news on the 337 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 2: campaign trail as we prepare to go to New Hampshire, 338 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 2: this is the one Nikki Haley was gosh, she must 339 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 2: have been hoping for everybody was to get the endorsement 340 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 2: of Senator Tim Scott. It's going to Donald Trump. And 341 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: this is an important bit of reporting on behalf of Bloomberg. 342 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 2: He will endorse Donald Trump this evening at a rally 343 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 2: in conquered New Hampshire. According to those familiar, speaking on 344 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 2: condition of anonymity, let's reassemble the panel, Rick Davis and 345 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. This is one that actually 346 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 2: could make a difference in terms of helping Donald Trump. 347 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 3: Genie no, it could. 348 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 7: I mean it is her home state. He is Senator 349 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 7: in large part because of her. They did mix it 350 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 7: up a bit in the debates, of course, but the 351 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 7: idea that he would endorse now, it really, i think 352 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 7: shows you and is a reflection of how much the 353 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 7: Republican establishment and not just the mega wing of the 354 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 7: party is owned by Donald Trump. You know, Tim Scott 355 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 7: follows Marco Rubio. You know, just the sheer number of 356 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 7: endorsements that Donald Trump has out of Congress is a 357 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 7: reflection of his strength and his ownership of the party, 358 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,679 Speaker 7: making it all that much more tougher for Nicky Haley 359 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 7: to have any kind of surprise win in New Hampshire. 360 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 7: It could happen, but it is becoming increasingly less likely 361 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 7: as the hours go by. 362 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 2: What do you make of the timing here, Rick, Not 363 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 2: only is the call coming from inside the house, this 364 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 2: endorsement from South Carolina that he could have waited a 365 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 2: couple of weeks, you know, to have an impact in 366 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 2: his own state. Doing this on the eve of New Hampshire. 367 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 2: Does this feel like a party that wants to get 368 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 2: this over with. 369 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm sure the Trump people pressed him to do 370 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 6: it while they are in the pre New Hampshire balloting look, 371 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 6: I mean, it's not like he's going to help Donald 372 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 6: Trump with conservatives, which is his base, and especially evangelicals, 373 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 6: because Trump's already getting a line's share of those votes. 374 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 6: There's nothing really going to be beneficial to him. But 375 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 6: he could have been a gateway to those voters looking 376 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 6: and saying, well, if Tim Scott's going to go for 377 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 6: Nicki Haley, then we're comfortable doing that too. So the 378 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 6: predicate now isn't going to get set and Nicki although 379 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 6: she's doing extremely well with independence in New Hampshire and 380 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 6: she failed and really crossover it voting and getting conservatives 381 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 6: in Iowa, and she needs those conservatives in New Hampshire 382 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 6: to compete with Donald Trump, and she's. 383 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 3: Just not getting them. 384 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 6: So this is a huge disappointment, I'm sure for Nicki 385 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 6: Haley and her campaign because they I think saw Tim 386 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 6: Scott as that permission structure for Republicans who are conservative 387 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 6: or evangelical to be willing to support her, and now 388 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 6: she's not going to get it. You can frame that 389 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 6: Rick about how sought after that was. Maybe I should 390 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 6: ask that in a different way. How popular he is 391 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 6: inside the party. He has the respect of his colleagues, yes, 392 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 6: I mean both on Capitol Hill with his fellow senators, 393 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 6: you know, so within the institution of the Senate, he's 394 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 6: considered a very solid, very thoughtful member. But at home, 395 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,160 Speaker 6: he's the hometown kid. He's the guy from the other 396 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 6: side of the tracks who made good his his personal 397 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 6: story is immensely compelling to South Carolinian voters. And even 398 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 6: though he didn't he wasn't successful conveying that to a 399 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 6: broader audience of Republicans around the country, he was able 400 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 6: to have an impact in a lot of circles in 401 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 6: this campaign. And so yeah, I mean he's he's kind 402 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 6: of the gold standard of Republicans, especially in the South 403 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 6: right now when you have the swirl of discussions around 404 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 6: slavery and and racism that have sort of populated this 405 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 6: last couple of days on the campaign trail, you know, 406 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 6: he's he is the safest harbor you're gonna find politically. 407 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: GINI are you feeling like this is over now, that 408 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 2: it's a party that wants to pull the ripcord and 409 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 2: just make Donald Trump the nominee. 410 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 7: Well, historically New Hampshire has delivered surprises, so that is 411 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 7: always something I keep in the back of my mind. 412 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 7: But if and Rick knows that better than anybody. But 413 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 7: if you trust the polls, which I know a lot 414 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 7: of people don't I do, they would have to be 415 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 7: wildly off for her to win. Could she come in close? 416 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 7: I think that's possible. But even if she does, she's 417 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 7: gonna do it on the backs of independence Democrats, and 418 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 7: that is going to be something that Donald Trump is 419 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 7: just chomping at the bit to use. You know, she 420 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 7: has a big problem now. She has been defined oddly 421 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 7: as Chris Christy and Asa Hutchinson and other never Trumpers 422 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 7: have left the race. She has become really the poster 423 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 7: child of the never Trumpers, which is, you know, not 424 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 7: a place she wants to be if she hopes to 425 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 7: win the Republican primary at this point. And of course 426 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 7: it's stunning because this is Nicky Haley. Let's not forget 427 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 7: she had the endorsements of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin 428 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 7: to become governor. She was part of that Tea Party movement. 429 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 7: But now she is nothing of the sort she is 430 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 7: you know, Chris Christy, you know of the female variety, 431 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 7: and you know, it's not a fair way she's been characterized. 432 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 7: But you know, going back to how Donald Trump now 433 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 7: wants to make her Hillary Clinton. This is what she 434 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 7: has become. They had to fight that hard early, and 435 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 7: her campaign has stumbled in doing that. 436 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,239 Speaker 3: You just said a lot there. That's fascinating, Jennie Rick. 437 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 2: What do you think about the fact that Nicky Haley 438 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 2: was rebranded to such an extent from others. Is that 439 00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 2: the biggest failure of this campaign? 440 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's the biggest failure of Nicki Haley's campaign. 441 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 3: You know, Yeah, Genie's right. 442 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 6: I mean, she is a conservatives conservative in South Carolina. 443 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 6: She got elected ahead of the current governor, who's considered 444 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 6: a sky and of conservatism in South Carolina. I mean, 445 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 6: you know, her credentials as a conservative are impeccable. But 446 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 6: when you go through a campaign, you get redefined. And 447 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 6: when you run against Donald Trump, he's the one who 448 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 6: gets to define you. Remember, he's got the megaphone, right, 449 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,479 Speaker 6: He's got one hundred percent name id. They've all had 450 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 6: to try to earn it. In the course of doing that, 451 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 6: He's been able to define Rond de Santis very effectively, 452 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 6: long before Ronde Santa's even actually got into the race, 453 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 6: and with Nicki Haley turning his sights on her around 454 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 6: the time of the Iowa Caucuses. The barrage has been 455 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 6: very significant, both in advertising and of course in his 456 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 6: own comments that get picked up all over the world. 457 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 6: So yeah, it's very hard to maintain your ideological clarity 458 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 6: in the campaign against Donald Trump, who actually has no 459 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 6: ideological clarity. He benefits from being whatever he wants to 460 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 6: be any given day, and so it's very hard to 461 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 6: pin him down. So yeah, as I said, you know, 462 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 6: she's been identified as someone the Independence want because it's 463 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 6: not Donald Trump, she's she has not cut into that 464 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 6: conservative base of people who want an option to Trump 465 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 6: but want to be comfortable that they have someone who 466 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 6: will pursue his policies without all the chaos that was her. 467 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 3: Campaign, and it just hasn't stupp Genie. You mentioned the polls. 468 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 2: We've got it now, a daily tracking poll leading up 469 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 2: to the primary that's being done by Suffolk University David Paleologos, 470 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 2: who was on with us a couple of days ago 471 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 2: working with the Boston Globe. Trump fifty two, Haley thirty five. 472 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 2: He's got a seventeen point lead here. It really doesn't 473 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 2: matter the rest of the field. Ron DeSantis is all 474 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 2: the way down at six. By the way, Trump in 475 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 2: this poll up to since the last one. Hayley is 476 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,919 Speaker 2: down one. If we're gauging momentum and direction, at least 477 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 2: that's where we stand, and I'll keep tabs on that 478 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: for you throughout the weekend and leading into Monday. We'll 479 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 2: have mister Paleologos with us from Manchester next week to 480 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 2: set the baseline on where we are when voting begins. 481 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 482 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay, and then 483 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 1: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 484 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 485 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 2: It's like a snow globe up here in the Bloomberg 486 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 2: Bureau in DC. It's actually beautiful as long as you 487 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 2: don't have to go outside. 488 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,880 Speaker 8: I guess, yeah, it feels very cozy on the inside, 489 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 8: and I take some personal solace in knowing that the 490 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 8: outside isn't as cold as it was the last time 491 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 8: I saw snow, which was in Iowa. 492 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 2: No, it's actually not that cold out. But this is 493 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 2: the reason why the government's open. Basically right, they felt 494 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 2: the need to get out of the before the snow started. 495 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 2: It turned out to be a real snowstorm, so God 496 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 2: bless it. The schools are closed, but the government is open. 497 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 2: We'll go with that. Did they get that markup? Going 498 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 2: the ways and means? These are like the only people 499 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 2: who had to go to work at the capitol today 500 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 2: at nine am, steal, thank you very much. Richie Neil 501 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 2: had his snow boots ready and it. 502 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 8: Passed out of the committee. I guess we'll see what 503 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 8: the fate is now of this tax deal because a 504 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 8: lot of people were pushing for changes that they didn't 505 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 8: necessarily get. 506 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 3: Well, that's true. 507 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 2: I suspect that barat Rama Murdy has some thoughts on 508 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 2: that an expanded child tax credit was a huge priority 509 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 2: for the administration while he was working for Joe Biden. 510 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 8: Yeah. Absolutely, and theoretically could be growth positive if it 511 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,439 Speaker 8: were to come through at what is a pretty critical 512 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 8: moment for a Biden administration that is still struggling with 513 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,120 Speaker 8: getting credit for the strength of the economy that we're 514 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 8: still seeing. 515 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 2: That's true, and it would come in exchange for more 516 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 2: business friendly taxes. Everything is a bargain, of course in 517 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,159 Speaker 2: Washington and let's bring in barat Rama Murdy, now a 518 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,159 Speaker 2: senior advisor for economic strategy at the American Economic Liberties Project. 519 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 2: Of course, former deputy Director National Economic Council, as you 520 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: probably remember seeing and hearing in his days, if the 521 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 2: White House brought welcome back, it's good to see you. 522 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 2: Is that a fair trade? I was going to start 523 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 2: on something else, but while we're talking about this, this 524 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 2: was a big deal. This goes back to build back, 525 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 2: better to trade an expanded child tax credit for more 526 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 2: business friendly, more corporate taxes. 527 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 3: Does that end up being a wash in a way 528 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 3: that's good for the country. 529 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 9: I guess I would say this. I think it's the 530 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 9: travesty that in the wealthiest planet on Earth, you have 531 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 9: millions of children growing up in poverty. And I think 532 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 9: any step we take towards reducing the number of children 533 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 9: in poverty is a step worth taking. And this deal, 534 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 9: as you noted, expands the child tax credit. It will 535 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 9: lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty, and 536 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 9: I think that that makes it worthwhile. I think the 537 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 9: corporate elements of it are frankly a little disappointing and 538 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 9: not necessary. 539 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 3: For example, one portion of. 540 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 9: It is a set of retroactive tax cuts for the 541 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 9: twenty twenty three tax Here, the entire theory behind these 542 00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,880 Speaker 9: corporate tax cuts is that they're intended to create an 543 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 9: incentive for more investment. It's hard to go back in 544 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 9: time and create an incentive in twenty twenty three with 545 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 9: this change. That's just a pure giveaway. But if it's 546 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 9: the price that we have to pay to lift more 547 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 9: children out of poverty, I think it's a small price 548 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 9: that's worth paying. 549 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 8: I wonder about your thoughts on the order this is 550 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 8: being done, though, if we could potentially see a tax 551 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 8: deal on the revenue side pass before we actually get 552 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 8: a budget for the fiscal year that started months ago. 553 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 8: On the spending side of the. 554 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 9: Ledger, yeah, I think you always see this kind of 555 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 9: disjunction between some of the revenue measures moving at a 556 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 9: different pace than the spending side. To go to your 557 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,239 Speaker 9: point about spending, if you all remember when we had 558 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 9: the debt sealing standoff several months ago. The outcome of 559 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,199 Speaker 9: that was that the President and the House Republicans agreed 560 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 9: on a deal where they set a top line for 561 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 9: spending in the coming fiscal year, and the only thing 562 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 9: that had to happen after that was that House Republicans 563 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 9: had to go back and actually write individual spending bills 564 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 9: to match that top line. Instead, what's happened is that 565 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 9: there's been repeat we did attempts to renegotiate the deal 566 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 9: that was struck to avoid the debt sealing crisis, and 567 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 9: that's what's brought us to this position where you have 568 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 9: these repeated continuing resolutions. I think it's unfortunate. I think 569 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,440 Speaker 9: at the end of the day, everyone benefits from having 570 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 9: individual appropriations bills where you decide to tweak spending levels 571 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 9: and rather than just carrying forward the levels that existed 572 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 9: the previous year. But really the onus is on House 573 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 9: Republicans now to honor the deal that they cut several 574 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 9: months ago. 575 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,880 Speaker 2: But you see the votes in the House yesterday, Barada 576 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 2: says a lot. I mean, Mike Johnson's leadership team voted no. 577 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 2: The chairs of eight committees voted no. And it wasn't 578 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 2: just Maga time Brian style. The share of the Admin 579 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 2: Committee is on this list, the Budget chair is on 580 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 2: this list. 581 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 3: What would be your view. 582 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: If you were working for the president at this point, 583 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 2: to say, you know there is no budget coming mister President, 584 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 2: this is CRS the rest of the year. 585 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 3: Right. 586 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 9: Well, look, the positive news from that, from the administration's 587 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 9: perspective is that the last fiscal year was a year 588 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 9: in which Democrats controlled the House and Senate and the 589 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 9: White House, and they set spending levels at a level 590 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 9: that they liked. And so if we continue with continuing resolutions, 591 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 9: you're basically extending spending levels that Democrats work together to set. 592 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,239 Speaker 9: And so I think the leverage here is ultimately with 593 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 9: the Democrats to wait this out. I think the President 594 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 9: has been clear he wants the deal here, he wants 595 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 9: to honor the deal that he's cut. But if Republicans 596 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 9: insist on one CR after another, at the end of 597 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 9: the day, all they are doing is in shrining levels 598 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 9: that Democrats set in the first place. 599 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 8: So as we have this talk about spending, about potentially 600 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 8: keeping it at the same or looking for more cuts, 601 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 8: if you're some members of the Republican Party at least 602 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,719 Speaker 8: in the House, is against a backdrop broad of what 603 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 8: has been consistently a strong economy, and recent data we've 604 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 8: gotten this week suggests perhaps is even more so than 605 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 8: we would be expecting at this point in the cycle. 606 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 8: Considering how hart far the FED has hyped rates. Do 607 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 8: you look at the humish consumer sentiment numbers. They've improved 608 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 8: according to the latest reading, while inflation expectations have gone down. 609 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 8: Have we turned a corner here? Are we actually going 610 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 8: to start this start showing up not just in the 611 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 8: economic data, but actually in sentiment when voters think about 612 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 8: the president and his job on the economy. 613 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 4: Yeah. 614 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 9: Actually, I was on Bloomberg about six weeks ago and 615 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 9: I said that at that moment, I thought the worm 616 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 9: was turning. And I really think that that was the 617 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 9: key moment. You started to see a surge in consumer 618 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 9: sentiment in December that's carried forward into the data that 619 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 9: we got today from the University of Michigan. The two 620 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 9: month increase we've seen in the last two months is 621 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 9: the highest we've seen since the nineteen nineties. So we 622 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 9: really do have a surge and consumer sentiment that I 623 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 9: think is basically catching up to the other economic data 624 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 9: that we've seen now for months and months, declining inflation, 625 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 9: wages continuing to grow at a steady pace, job growth 626 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 9: continuing to power forward, and so I think sentiment is 627 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 9: trying to catch up with the data. And if anything, 628 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 9: the sentiment should continue to improve going into twenty twenty four. 629 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 9: I mean, look at what we have on tap. Likely 630 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 9: to have several interest rate cuts, which will reduce the 631 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 9: cost of getting a mortgage, reduce the cost of credit 632 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 9: cards and so on. You should have continued job growth, 633 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 9: and you should have more and more months of inflation 634 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 9: that's basically at or near the head's two percent target, 635 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 9: which means inflation will be less salient than it was before. 636 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 9: I would project that the sentiment will continue to increase 637 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 9: as we get closer to the election. 638 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 2: Spending time with Rama Murdy today on Bloomberg Sound On, 639 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 2: I know you didn't work for the communications shop in 640 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 2: the White House, Barot, but I wonder what you make 641 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 2: of the pitch Bidenomics. The President getting back on the road. 642 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 2: Isn't Raleigh this week making the case. He'll continue to 643 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: do that, I'm sure throughout the campaign, But this is 644 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 2: a moving target. Sometimes you're updating, you're refining that pitch, 645 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 2: and I wonder to what extent you would want to 646 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 2: put a finer point on what Bidenomics is so it 647 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 2: can begin connecting with people and show up in the polls. 648 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, at its core, the Bidenomics is about evaluating the 649 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 9: economy based on the well being of your typical middle 650 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 9: class family. I think what the President has consistently cared 651 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 9: about in his time in office, and frankly for decades 652 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 9: before that is your typical middle class family doing well, 653 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 9: our people who are on the lower end of the 654 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 9: income scale getting a chance to climb the ladder into 655 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,479 Speaker 9: the middle class, and what kind of financial security are 656 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 9: we providing for middle class families. I think that that's 657 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 9: underlies the type of response he brought to the pandemic 658 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 9: in twenty twenty one with the American Rescue Plan, that's 659 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 9: at the heart of his maiden America agenda, and trying 660 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 9: to bring back manufacturing jobs, and that's at the head 661 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 9: of his at the heart of his regulatory agenda. And 662 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 9: I think if you look at the data, which is 663 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 9: starting to get stronger with each passing day, you see 664 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 9: that wealth for the typical family has gone up thirty 665 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 9: seven percent since the beginning of the pandemic. You see 666 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 9: that wages adjusted for inflation gone up quite a bit 667 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 9: since the beginning of the pandemic. You see that job 668 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 9: satisfaction is that it's high level in thirty six years, 669 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 9: so that the President had a clear agenda, which was 670 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,719 Speaker 9: to deliver gains to your typical household in the United States, 671 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 9: and I think that even though we've come through global 672 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 9: inflation surge, he has delivered that. And it's worth noting 673 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 9: that a lot of other countries haven't, and that whether 674 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 9: it's the United Kingdom or the EU or Japan, those 675 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 9: countries are limping while the United States is running ahead. 676 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 8: Brod. It's interesting you to talk about how wealth has 677 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,479 Speaker 8: gone up because obviously a lot of wealth is centered 678 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 8: in home ownership on the one hand, but also in 679 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 8: financial investments. And we're talking to you on a day 680 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 8: where the S and P five hundred has reached an 681 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 8: intra day record high. The stock market has been on fire. 682 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 8: But unlike his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, Biden doesn't 683 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 8: really seem to want to talk about that much. Should 684 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 8: he be doing it more. 685 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 9: It's not really the president's style. And me, I think 686 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 9: it's worth remembering that about fifty percent of American households 687 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 9: don't have any exposure to the stock market whatsoever. What 688 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,680 Speaker 9: the stock market is, it's an important economic metric, one 689 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 9: of many, but it's really a metric that applies to 690 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 9: the top half of Americans, and so the President's always 691 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,959 Speaker 9: going to be more focused on what percentage of people 692 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 9: are unemployed, what our wages doing at the lower end 693 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 9: of the spectrum, in the middle end of the spectrum, 694 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,600 Speaker 9: and I think on all those metrics we're seeing really 695 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,080 Speaker 9: strong performance. I do think it helps with overall economic 696 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 9: sentiment economic news coverage to see stock market gains. In 697 00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,279 Speaker 9: many ways, it is the economic indicator that gets the 698 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 9: most amount of coverage. Other data points come out on 699 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 9: a monthly or quarterly basis. There's stock market data every hour, 700 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 9: every day, and so I think when you have good 701 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:38,759 Speaker 9: news in the stock market, it tends to drive better 702 00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,240 Speaker 9: overall economic news coverage, and that will end up benefiting 703 00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 9: the president. But it's not the focus of his policies. 704 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 2: What's the campaign look like then, in delivering that message? 705 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 2: Is it more in person broad I know you're not 706 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 2: a campaign strategist, but what would you want to see? 707 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,840 Speaker 2: You had your fingerprints on this policy, And I wonder 708 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,920 Speaker 2: what the most effective way to bring that forth is. 709 00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 2: Is it the president himself speaking, is it more folks 710 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill or something I'm not thinking of. 711 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 3: Maybe you can enlist Hollywood here. 712 00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:09,799 Speaker 4: Yeah. 713 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 9: I mean, look, the most effective spokesperson for the president's 714 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 9: policies is the president. And what I have, what I've 715 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,439 Speaker 9: seen over the last three years when I was working 716 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,880 Speaker 9: in the White House, is that when the President is 717 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 9: out there interacting with voters in a more informal way 718 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 9: and is able to talk through his rationale for why 719 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 9: he did the things he did, when he's able to 720 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 9: take on concerns from voters and explain why he thinks 721 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 9: things are going to get better, I think really that's 722 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,359 Speaker 9: when he's at his best. So, as you said, I'm 723 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 9: not in a position to tell the campaign what to do, 724 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,279 Speaker 9: but if I were, I would tell them that trying 725 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 9: to get the president out there to do these kinds 726 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 9: of events will be beneficial because he's a likable, relatable 727 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 9: guy who really cares very deeply about the well being 728 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 9: at the typical American and that'll shine through the more 729 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 9: you get to see him. 730 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,320 Speaker 8: And another thing that maybe separates his style from the 731 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,800 Speaker 8: former president style, as he has been very reluctant to 732 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,800 Speaker 8: weigh in on the policy of the Federal Reserve. Brot 733 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 8: just a final minute with you. We have seen after 734 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 8: the data today, the odds of a March cut from 735 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,960 Speaker 8: the FED going down at least in terms of how 736 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 8: it's priced by the market. Do you think it would 737 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,880 Speaker 8: be a mistake for the FED not to cut rates 738 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 8: at that point, Well, I guess. 739 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,720 Speaker 9: I would say I think the data leans in favor 740 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,719 Speaker 9: of the FED starting to cut in March. I think 741 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 9: it's a close call, but I think that that's what 742 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 9: the data suggest, in part because the CPI and other 743 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 9: inflation data that we have now is a little bit 744 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 9: out of date. It doesn't reflect fully the housing disinflation 745 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 9: that's in the pipeline and that we know is coming. 746 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,000 Speaker 9: And so I think that if the FED is going 747 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 9: to do several cuts over the course of twenty twenty four, 748 00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:43,840 Speaker 9: which is what they're predicting, that it makes sense for 749 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,560 Speaker 9: them to get started in March. That said, you're right, 750 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 9: the President it really respects the independence of the FED. 751 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,400 Speaker 9: He wants them to be data driven. He wants to 752 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 9: He has appointed people there that he trusts to interpret 753 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 9: the data and to make the decisions that they're going 754 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,200 Speaker 9: to make on that data. That's not going to change 755 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 9: going forward, and I think by the way that that 756 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 9: President's approach on that has been vindicated. He stood back 757 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 9: and let the Fed do what it needed to do. 758 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 8: It's right now, Look all right, Barat, we got to 759 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,439 Speaker 8: leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us today. 760 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 8: That's Barat Ramamurti, former Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, 761 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 8: now at the American Economic Liberties Project. This is Bloomberg. 762 00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken 763 00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay and 764 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 1: then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 765 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,400 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 766 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 767 00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,239 Speaker 2: On the Eve, I guess we can say of the 768 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 2: New Hampshire primary. Obviously that'll be Monday, but it's the 769 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 2: eve before we all delve into the final week of. 770 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 8: Our trip to New Hampshire because we're going to try 771 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:56,839 Speaker 8: to get there tomorrow. 772 00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 3: And it's the final weekend. 773 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 2: This is like closing argument time, which is a big 774 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,239 Speaker 2: deal if your name Nicki Haley, because boy, this news 775 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:06,280 Speaker 2: today that Senator Tim Scott is going to endorse Donald 776 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,399 Speaker 2: Trump tonight just made this a little bit. 777 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:09,279 Speaker 3: Harder for her to pull off. 778 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,279 Speaker 8: Yeah, pretty remarkable to see this news. Of course, she 779 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 8: hasn't gotten that many endorsements so far in this race. 780 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,720 Speaker 8: She did get the very critical endorsement of the Governor 781 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,839 Speaker 8: of New Hampshire, Christa Nunu, but hasn't gotten that many 782 00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,560 Speaker 8: congressional endorsements. And obviously Tim Scott not going to be 783 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,320 Speaker 8: counted among those as he throws his hat in the 784 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,000 Speaker 8: ring for Trump, despite the fact that Nicky Haley is 785 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 8: the one who nominated him to the Senate in the 786 00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 8: first place. 787 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible and as we get ready to get on 788 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,160 Speaker 2: the ground in Manchester, we're bringing a lot of voices 789 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,040 Speaker 2: from that part of the country who understand politics there 790 00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,240 Speaker 2: beyond Rick Davis of course, who has away with New Hampshire. 791 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,399 Speaker 2: But when we get into the geography, the demographics, there's 792 00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,160 Speaker 2: just something unique about New Hampshire, the role that independence play, 793 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,799 Speaker 2: and we wanted to bring in Colin Reid for part 794 00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,280 Speaker 2: of that conversation today used to work for Senator Scott 795 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,680 Speaker 2: Brown in fact, was campaign manager for Scott Brown or 796 00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 2: New Hampshire described as I read by a leading polster 797 00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 2: as the best campaign in the country. That's not that 798 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 2: you know what else they say about Colin Reid. He's 799 00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,400 Speaker 2: been on this program before, a veteran. This is the 800 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 2: hill of the OPO research wars that have helped define 801 00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,279 Speaker 2: presidential races. So Colin, we're gonna get more OPO on 802 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,799 Speaker 2: Nikki Haley this weekend. What are we in for here 803 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:22,280 Speaker 2: in the last couple of days of the campaign. 804 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 5: Well, first of all, it's great to be with you both, 805 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,400 Speaker 5: and I'm jealous that you'll be traveling up there tomorrow. 806 00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:30,960 Speaker 7: And you're right, we are. 807 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:35,120 Speaker 5: We're in that closing final stage. Voters are less It's 808 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,160 Speaker 5: less about being persuaded at this point than it is 809 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,279 Speaker 5: about the various candidates and campaigns making sure they get 810 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 5: their people out of the polls in what has very 811 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 5: very quickly become a two person race between former President 812 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,480 Speaker 5: Trump and Governor Haley. And to think that after the 813 00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 5: twenty sixteen Republican primary, when there were so many people 814 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,320 Speaker 5: on that stage they had to have multiple debates, and 815 00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,520 Speaker 5: even earlier in this campaign when they were eight nine 816 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,879 Speaker 5: qualified people to get down to two, it's a pretty 817 00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,200 Speaker 5: remarkable thing and it allows both campaigns to really have 818 00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 5: a clean shot at the other. So we're in that 819 00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,839 Speaker 5: final stretch and it's an exciting time for sure. 820 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,880 Speaker 8: Yeah, And in this final stretch, Nikki Haley remains at 821 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,840 Speaker 8: least in the latest polls we're seeing there's been a 822 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:23,120 Speaker 8: few outliers, but behind Trump by a significant margin. And 823 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:27,439 Speaker 8: she's not debating in New Hampshire as we maybe thought 824 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,800 Speaker 8: she would be just about a week ago before we 825 00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 8: got the result from Iowa. So how hard is it 826 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 8: in these final days to actually make a dent improve 827 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,719 Speaker 8: her numbers if she's not doing it on that kind 828 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:39,360 Speaker 8: of platform. 829 00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,680 Speaker 5: Well, Governor Haley has run a quintessential New Hampshire campaign 830 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,280 Speaker 5: from start to finish. She's done the town hall meetings, 831 00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 5: she's been up there, she's been grinding it out, and 832 00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,399 Speaker 5: she and her team placed an emphasis in the state 833 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,120 Speaker 5: early on. And it makes sense because forty percent of 834 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,040 Speaker 5: the state's electorate don't belong to either political party, and 835 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,959 Speaker 5: those independents can vote in the report in primary, and frankly, 836 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,759 Speaker 5: why wouldn't they because there's not a whole lot going 837 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,839 Speaker 5: on on the Democratic side. In fact, Democratic president can't 838 00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,400 Speaker 5: even be bothered to put his name on the ballot. 839 00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,600 Speaker 5: So if you're an independent, Republican game is the entire 840 00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 5: show in town now as it relates to the final stretch. 841 00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 5: President Trump, we haven't been in this situation since eighteen 842 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,959 Speaker 5: ninety two, and we've had a non incumbent essentially running 843 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,399 Speaker 5: as an incumbent, and that was Grover Cleveland's back then. 844 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 5: Things have changed a lot since then, and President Trump, 845 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,600 Speaker 5: for everything all the challenges he faces in the court 846 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,040 Speaker 5: of legal and public opinion, he still is by and 847 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,839 Speaker 5: large the sitting incumbent president. And in Iowa he won 848 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,239 Speaker 5: with fifty percent of the vote. That means about half 849 00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,319 Speaker 5: the people voted for somebody else. And if you're an 850 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,480 Speaker 5: incumbent president you're only getting half the vote. That's not 851 00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,600 Speaker 5: necessarily a place you want to be. So Nikki Haley's 852 00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,200 Speaker 5: got her work cut out, for no doubt. It looks 853 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 5: like consistently across the boards. The polls have her across 854 00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,000 Speaker 5: the board. The polls have her a few points down, 855 00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,480 Speaker 5: but she's closing hard, she's closing strong, and she's got 856 00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,840 Speaker 5: a message Taylor made for that independent minded New Hampshire electorate. 857 00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:05,839 Speaker 2: Sure seems like Donald Trump is going to be hard 858 00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,919 Speaker 2: to catch. Though, here what's the path Colin? If Nicki 859 00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:12,719 Speaker 2: Haley even wins New Hampshire, where do we go from here? 860 00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:16,520 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is topping her by fifty to twenty five 861 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,920 Speaker 2: or some ridiculous spread in her home state of South Carolina. 862 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 3: How much of a gift would even a win be 863 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 3: in New Hampshire. 864 00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:27,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, the thing with New Hampshire is it allowed 865 00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,800 Speaker 5: Invessareeley to move on. It'll allow the race to continue. 866 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,080 Speaker 5: Governor DeSantis isn't really competing in New Hampshire for all 867 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,080 Speaker 5: intensive purposes, So he's just he's placed all his marbles 868 00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,239 Speaker 5: in the South Carolina bucket and then look, it's going 869 00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,160 Speaker 5: to be a challenge, no doubt. The one thing I'd 870 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,800 Speaker 5: say that Haley Camp has going for them is that 871 00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,000 Speaker 5: a lot of these primaries you look towards Super Tuesday, 872 00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,880 Speaker 5: I believe it's of the fourteen states that are voting, 873 00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,800 Speaker 5: nine of them have an independent. They're not a closed primary, 874 00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:59,440 Speaker 5: meaning independents can vote. And again, if you're an independent, 875 00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,840 Speaker 5: mind of if you're unenrolled either political party. We know 876 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,440 Speaker 5: poll after poll after poll tells us that Americans buy 877 00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,279 Speaker 5: and large are extremely unhappy with the idea of a 878 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,440 Speaker 5: Joe Biden versus Donald Trump repeat, and I think you're 879 00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,919 Speaker 5: starting to see that in Ambassador Haley's messaging these last 880 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,239 Speaker 5: few days, she started to take more shots directly at 881 00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 5: former President Trump, and there's only one way to get 882 00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:22,520 Speaker 5: to get by him, and that has to go through them. 883 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,719 Speaker 5: So she seems like she's reached that conclusion, and we'll 884 00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:27,759 Speaker 5: see if it's enough to get her to where she 885 00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:29,200 Speaker 5: needs to go coming out of Tuesday. 886 00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,200 Speaker 8: Yeah, but Colin, did she reach that conclusion too late? 887 00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,600 Speaker 8: We're pretty far away into this thing, and that's not 888 00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,719 Speaker 8: the song she's been singing this entire time. 889 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, and we'll find out. Look, I think the critiques 890 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 5: she's made on both of them as being kind of 891 00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 5: elderly past their promp. 892 00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:49,080 Speaker 4: Over the hill. 893 00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,600 Speaker 5: Candidates is one that's resonant, especially beyond just a hardened 894 00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,400 Speaker 5: Republican base, which is by and large gonna be with Trump, 895 00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,600 Speaker 5: so you know, but at the same time, it's it's 896 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,399 Speaker 5: almost the impossible real because the former president does enjoy 897 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:08,839 Speaker 5: such high favoraball ratings amongst hardline voters. Politics one on one, 898 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:10,880 Speaker 5: you don't want to be saying negative things about a 899 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,279 Speaker 5: person that is viewed very favorably. So we'll find out, 900 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,320 Speaker 5: and that'll be the that'll be There'll be plenty of 901 00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,279 Speaker 5: inks built on that on Wednesday morning. But I think 902 00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,360 Speaker 5: the way she's been able to offer Republicans a different 903 00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,520 Speaker 5: path forward. Again, there's a there's in New Hampshire is 904 00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,120 Speaker 5: just tailor made for her because there's a lot of 905 00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,520 Speaker 5: people up there really unhappy with the way things are going, 906 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,040 Speaker 5: really don't like Joe Biden. Joe Biden is not someone 907 00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,560 Speaker 5: who's ever done well in New Hampshire throughout his three 908 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,040 Speaker 5: runs for office. He left the state early in twenty twenty. 909 00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,200 Speaker 5: He just got blown out so badly. So uh, and 910 00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,680 Speaker 5: we've seen it before, so New Hampshire's delivered surprizes before. 911 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,800 Speaker 5: And I wouldn't count Governor Haley out. But yeah, that 912 00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,879 Speaker 5: that being said, President Trump is is a political force 913 00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:52,399 Speaker 5: for sure. 914 00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,160 Speaker 2: Colin, let's go to ground in our remaining moment or 915 00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,799 Speaker 2: two here, what will you be watching, you know, New 916 00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,440 Speaker 2: hamp I'm sure what will you be watching on Tuesday night? 917 00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:06,480 Speaker 2: Will it be those conservative suburbs along the Massachusetts border 918 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:08,680 Speaker 2: or are you gonna wait to see what happens in 919 00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:12,080 Speaker 2: the rural areas that might help to turn this into 920 00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:13,080 Speaker 2: Nikki Haley's favor. 921 00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,279 Speaker 5: The entire ballgame in terms of population is right on 922 00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,799 Speaker 5: the mass border or at least in that Boston media market, 923 00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,640 Speaker 5: like seven to ten voters get their news from Boston, 924 00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,000 Speaker 5: and that's where it's gonna be. And these are people 925 00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,160 Speaker 5: who are a lot of them commute down to Boston, 926 00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,239 Speaker 5: a lot of them living in Hampshire because they don't 927 00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,960 Speaker 5: like the high taxation states of some of the neighboring states. 928 00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,560 Speaker 5: And these are people who really don't like the Biden policies, 929 00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:39,120 Speaker 5: probably didn't really love the Trump policies. And these are 930 00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,200 Speaker 5: the people who or whom Nicky Haley needs to come 931 00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 5: out and vote for. And look, it's a small state. 932 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,880 Speaker 5: This is why these small states matter. Because between the 933 00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,360 Speaker 5: next ninety six hours or however much time until the 934 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,320 Speaker 5: polls close, there's a pretty good chance that if you 935 00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:52,960 Speaker 5: work it hard enough, you can meet a lot of 936 00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,160 Speaker 5: these people up close and personal on a market, basket 937 00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,640 Speaker 5: of Duncan donuts, you name it. And these candidates break 938 00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,719 Speaker 5: these these these voters to break late and break hard. 939 00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,200 Speaker 5: And Governor Haley's got a lot to get some time 940 00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,000 Speaker 5: between now and Tuesday to kind of make the case 941 00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,879 Speaker 5: and get them out because after this New Hampshire, it's 942 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,760 Speaker 5: it gets awfully late early in terms of this primary process. 943 00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:17,960 Speaker 8: All right, Colin read South and Hill Strategies co founder 944 00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,759 Speaker 8: and Republican Strategists, thank you so much for joining us, 945 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,120 Speaker 8: and of course show The other thing we have to 946 00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,239 Speaker 8: consider about New Hampshire is maybe what turnout is going 947 00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,279 Speaker 8: to look like, considering it is not going to be 948 00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:31,240 Speaker 8: the historic wind chills we saw in Iowa. And because 949 00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,680 Speaker 8: it's a primary, people can show up and vote throughout 950 00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,760 Speaker 8: the day versus having to be at a certain location 951 00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:37,440 Speaker 8: right at a certain time. 952 00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,080 Speaker 3: In order to participate. It's also considered you know, sport 953 00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:41,080 Speaker 3: in New Hampshire like that. 954 00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,800 Speaker 2: Everyone's like you'll have guys with like no shirt on 955 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,680 Speaker 2: and make up like they're going to a football game, going, well, 956 00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,120 Speaker 2: that'll be the Trump rally, not going to vote. We'll 957 00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,879 Speaker 2: find out at some polling areas, but you know you'll 958 00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,600 Speaker 2: see the guy, like the Trump impersonators in the orange 959 00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,759 Speaker 2: jumpsuits walking on Elm Street. It does seem to be 960 00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,800 Speaker 2: something that that people want to be involved. And in 961 00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:00,719 Speaker 2: to your point, it's going to be forty degrees on 962 00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,000 Speaker 2: primary day. That's shorts weather up there. 963 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're bringing your shorts, right, I should. 964 00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:12,239 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 965 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 966 00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,960 Speaker 1: and then Proud with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 967 00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:21,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 968 00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:22,040 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 969 00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:28,120 Speaker 2: Some pretty cool stuff going on in the next couple 970 00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:29,960 Speaker 2: of days, not just the new Anture primary, but on 971 00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:33,640 Speaker 2: this very program, kayleie, this right here, look at this 972 00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:37,040 Speaker 2: with our loyal viewers and listeners on the radio and YouTube, 973 00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,400 Speaker 2: the final two minutes ever of sound on Bloomberg. 974 00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,399 Speaker 8: Yes, as Sound On, We're not going away. 975 00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,160 Speaker 2: We did not get fired. There is still time for that. 976 00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,719 Speaker 2: But we're going to be going to an earlier time slot. Yeah, 977 00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:55,040 Speaker 2: twelve noon to two pm Washington time, and it's going 978 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,239 Speaker 2: to be called Balance of Power as we expand the 979 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,920 Speaker 2: franchise from TV here to Sound On and this is 980 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,000 Speaker 2: going to be kind of our vehicle to cover an 981 00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:07,120 Speaker 2: incredible and historic campaign season, but starting on Monday, a 982 00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,480 Speaker 2: little bit of a different look at different time. Our 983 00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,480 Speaker 2: second hour will be on television when you grace this 984 00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:13,319 Speaker 2: with your presence, and it's all up from here. 985 00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:14,759 Speaker 3: Right Yeah, I'm going to do it. 986 00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:15,520 Speaker 8: Super excited. 987 00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:16,240 Speaker 3: That was perfect. 988 00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:16,640 Speaker 4: You. 989 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:18,640 Speaker 8: I feel like we should probably also you know, tweet 990 00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,520 Speaker 8: this out so people get there times luck we shall. 991 00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,200 Speaker 3: We'll follow up on social media with that. 992 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,920 Speaker 2: But yes, when you find us on Monday, we're going 993 00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,080 Speaker 2: to be in Manchester, yep, and it's going to be 994 00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:31,839 Speaker 2: pretty wild up there. We'll start at noontime, Manchester time, 995 00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:34,960 Speaker 2: and we'll go through two pm. Our colleagues at Bloomberg 996 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,600 Speaker 2: Business Week will follow us as well with their hour 997 00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,640 Speaker 2: that's going to be on Bloomberg TV, and you know, 998 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,160 Speaker 2: it's going to be something to experience together. I'm just 999 00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:44,759 Speaker 2: delighted that you're going to be along for the ride. 1000 00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:48,040 Speaker 2: We get to do this on TV on Balance of Power, 1001 00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:49,640 Speaker 2: which will also be now shared on the radio. 1002 00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,000 Speaker 3: So we're pure play baby. Is that what they call 1003 00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:53,640 Speaker 3: it in the business. 1004 00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,880 Speaker 8: Two hours of Kaylee and Joe every day just what 1005 00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:58,560 Speaker 8: every one to two, five to six. 1006 00:48:59,480 --> 00:48:59,920 Speaker 3: They need that. 1007 00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:00,880 Speaker 4: And radio. 1008 00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:02,040 Speaker 9: I'm excited. 1009 00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:02,960 Speaker 4: I am too. 1010 00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:03,920 Speaker 3: This is fantastic. 1011 00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:05,759 Speaker 2: I started here a few years ago doing this one 1012 00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,120 Speaker 2: hour of political radio in the afternoon sort of randomly 1013 00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,440 Speaker 2: happening on Bloomberg. Now, of course we're in the throes 1014 00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,440 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four and it's very important to us 1015 00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:14,960 Speaker 2: here at Bloomberg TV and radio and We're going to 1016 00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,120 Speaker 2: share our resources here on the satellite, on the radio, 1017 00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,560 Speaker 2: on YouTube, and on Bloomberg TV. And boy, we're going 1018 00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:22,400 Speaker 2: to experience a lot together in the next. 1019 00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:22,799 Speaker 3: Couple of months. 1020 00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:26,239 Speaker 8: And there's no better place for a debut than Manchester, New. 1021 00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:30,719 Speaker 3: Ye Yes, exactly zero to one hundred. Joe hardline go wrong, 1022 00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,520 Speaker 3: Hey Carol, then Tim, we'll meet you on Monday. I'm 1023 00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:37,120 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew along with Kayley Lines in Washington. Don't forget 1024 00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,240 Speaker 3: to shovel. I'll meet you in Manchester. 1025 00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:40,200 Speaker 8: Sounds good.