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Speaker 2: well timed. We are really going to digress from debate
Speaker 2: chat economics, finance, and you know what, folks were just
Speaker 2: going to concentrate on yen and on intervention this week.
Speaker 2: And Derren Meyer is hugely qualified with the Hong Kong
Speaker 2: and Shanghai Banking Corporation. He's just be seeing and joins
Speaker 2: us in the studio. Is there a convenient time to
Speaker 2: do a unilateral intervention like this? Sunday our time, six
Speaker 2: seven pm work Monday morning, Japan time.
Speaker 3: It's certainly on the list of possibilities. I suspect Friday
Speaker 3: afternoon is a good one in New York time, as.
Speaker 2: We Friday in New York time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's dinner liquidity, bigger bank falls.
Speaker 2: On the sea streak, yep on the deck in Atlanta Highlands.
Speaker 2: Lise is going to costco let's intervene. Is that how
Speaker 2: it works?
Speaker 3: I think that'll be exactly what Japan's MOF has in mind.
Speaker 3: They'll be thinking about Costco the look it's ten liquidity
Speaker 3: and an acchi. I guess. Look, the way we have
Speaker 3: to think about it is the other way around. Under
Speaker 3: what conditions might the spot market be racing higher? That
Speaker 3: will give the MOF cover to come in because at
Speaker 3: the moment what we have hire is dolly En grinding higher.
Speaker 3: That isn't a trigger. That isn't a trigger.
Speaker 2: You went to one of the toughest schools out there,
Speaker 2: U see Dublin, Okay, and they taught you intervention. Where
Speaker 2: in your literature does it say unilateral intervention works. I've
Speaker 2: never found it.
Speaker 3: I've never found it. And I was told by tough
Speaker 3: Catholic priests, so you know there was harsh lessons there.
Speaker 3: I would say, I would say it's working. So I'm
Speaker 3: going to push back on that, I would say it's
Speaker 3: working because what we have to think about is a counterfactual.
Speaker 3: Had there not been all this chatter about possible intervention,
Speaker 3: the actual intervention, where would dollar en be trading right now?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's safe to say a whole
Speaker 3: lot higher. So you know, it depends how you define success.
Speaker 3: And you know, this has been a market where it's
Speaker 3: very hard to find people who will kind of play
Speaker 3: the downside dollary en trade. They might talk about it,
Speaker 3: we do in our forecast three months, six months, and
Speaker 3: we all end up snow plowing it further into the
Speaker 3: future as dolly n just keeps grinding higher. And I
Speaker 3: think that's what the MF and you know and the
Speaker 3: boj on their behalf are are going to have to
Speaker 3: step in potentially to try and reintroduce meaningful two way risk.
Speaker 4: There is there a barecase for the US dollar anywhere.
Speaker 3: It's a narrow path to a weaker dollar. You kind
Speaker 3: of need that global Goldilock scenario of falling inflation and
Speaker 3: growth recovering, and you know, you get patches of it,
Speaker 3: and we've had them a couple of months ago in Europe,
Speaker 3: and then you get another soft patch in Europe as
Speaker 3: we've had over the last couple of weeks, and at
Speaker 3: the end of the day, the US economy, I know
Speaker 3: this morning, you know, we've had a small revision, but
Speaker 3: final domestic demands still strong. Atlanta fed GDP now punching
Speaker 3: along at three percent for the second quarter. It's the
Speaker 3: US exceptions that the joke I make as Goldilocks as
Speaker 3: an American accent, you know, and I think that's true,
Speaker 3: and so long as that remains true, it's hard to
Speaker 3: be I think a pervasive seller of the dollar.
Speaker 4: All right, we've got some political issues in France in
Speaker 4: the UK, how does that impact the ural the pounds
Speaker 4: to it?
Speaker 3: Certainly impacted euro I mean you can see that in
Speaker 3: terms of the relationship with the euro and the French
Speaker 3: spreads over German buns. That's that's been quite evident. I
Speaker 3: think we've reached kind of holding point ahead of the
Speaker 3: first round of the elections in France. The Marks want
Speaker 3: to see how that plays out, how many of Macron's
Speaker 3: candidates make it through the second round. So I think
Speaker 3: we're kind of in a holding pattern there. UK, do
Speaker 3: you know, I think I don't think Sterling cares I
Speaker 3: really don't think Sterling cares, which is my sales team
Speaker 3: back in the trading for a now, we will be
Speaker 3: wincing because you know, I've kind of killed a whole
Speaker 3: trade for the least call clients. But yeah, I think
Speaker 3: that's the reality.
Speaker 2: At the moment, I'm looking at the cacophony of like
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety two out to nineteen ninety eight as well.
Speaker 2: Something totally obscure is sing dollars Singapore dollar well versus
Speaker 2: the Japanese yen soap opera off the pandemic. I have
Speaker 2: roughly sixty percent appreciation of the Japanese yen versus a
Speaker 2: vibrant Singapore, And even if I go center tendency back
Speaker 2: three decades, I'm still talking a massive depreciation. How many
Speaker 2: toyotas are they buying in Singapore?
Speaker 3: Well, apparently not that many Japanese exports are not exactly
Speaker 3: surging at the moment. Well, I don't know. I can
Speaker 3: give you one reason. I lived in Singapore in the
Speaker 3: in the mid nineties, and they add a lot of
Speaker 3: They add a lot of money to what I cost
Speaker 3: to import a car into Singapore, So maybe there's different
Speaker 3: things going on there. It's a weird thing. It's you
Speaker 3: are seeing the compression of import demand in Japan, which
Speaker 3: is to be expected. You are seeing tourists visiting Japan
Speaker 3: because it is a super place in relative terms.
Speaker 2: To me official in a rescue I said, yesterday's Chinese
Speaker 2: are going to Japan to.
Speaker 3: Shut Yeah, and you can see why. The difficulty is
Speaker 3: you are still trying to export into a weak global economy.
Speaker 3: So it's fine saying we're price competitive and we're cheaper
Speaker 3: now than we wear back in the nineties or even
Speaker 3: six months ago. But if demand isn't there in the
Speaker 3: quantum you need, then perhaps you can't kill The.
Speaker 2: Large question which goes to Hspecies Wheelhouse with huge heritage
Speaker 2: here is their inflation, their overt inflation experiment. A is
Speaker 2: it done? And B it does it fail? Is they
Speaker 2: go back to disinflation and painful deflation.
Speaker 3: It doesn't feel that way. It feels as though they
Speaker 3: have kind of broken the cycle of inflation deflation expectations
Speaker 3: within Japan, and that's the key. And also I think
Speaker 3: what's happening on the wages front in Japan will give
Speaker 3: the boj some degree of comfort that they might have
Speaker 3: begun to create a virtuous circle between wages and sustaining
Speaker 3: those inflation expectations. So look, I think we've moved a
Speaker 3: long way from a really persistent deflation mindset in Japan.
Speaker 3: But you know, at the end of the day, it's
Speaker 3: been helped a lot by this week currency. It adds
Speaker 3: to Japanese prices, that adds the perception of inflation for
Speaker 3: everything that you're importing. So the job's not done. But look,
Speaker 3: it's amazing that we're talking about Japan raising rates when
Speaker 3: the rest of g Tennis cutting rates. I mean, how
Speaker 3: many times have we had that conversation, So it's really weird.
Speaker 2: Dermier, thank you so much. He's with HSBC. Dana Peterson. Yeah,
Speaker 2: the last time she was on, she was just lights
Speaker 2: out on the American consumer. Dana, it's unfair with the
Speaker 2: data coming out, But what is your model of Q
Speaker 2: two GDP right now? We had someone on earlier modeling
Speaker 2: a sprightly two point three percent. Do you agree?
Speaker 1: Well, we actually have GDP growth probably between zero and
Speaker 1: one percent annualized in the second quarter. Now we could
Speaker 1: revise that up a little bit. It really depends on
Speaker 1: what we see tomorrow with the personal income and spending data.
Speaker 1: But consumers are pulling back, and it's a reflection of
Speaker 1: the fact that excess savings are gone, real incomes are
Speaker 1: below real spending, and people are levering up and paying
Speaker 1: a lot of interest on their debt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is what surveillance is about. We like the
Speaker 2: difference of opinions. We don't have an opinion, but we're
Speaker 2: going to listen to those more optimistic and those like
Speaker 2: Dana Peterson sub one percent exactly.
Speaker 4: So Dana, talk to us about the consumer out there.
Speaker 4: I mean, essentially, the consumer wants a job. He or
Speaker 4: she has a job, Wages are increasing. How do you
Speaker 4: see the consumer here today?
Speaker 1: It's really mixed. Consumers are saying, yes, I'm working, I
Speaker 1: like that, my finances are okay. The present situation is fine,
Speaker 1: but they're still complaining about elevated prices, you know, eggs
Speaker 1: or eight bucks, bread ten you know. And they're also
Speaker 1: concerned more concerned about the future, their expectations for the
Speaker 1: labor Marketer story, you wrote a bit. They're concerned about
Speaker 1: their incomes. They're also very concerned about business conditions going forward,
Speaker 1: and we're seeing this tug of war. It looks like
Speaker 1: expectations that are weakening or starting to take over a
Speaker 1: little bit in the numbers.
Speaker 4: So where are we going to see that? We are
Speaker 4: we going to see that in? Where were we going
Speaker 4: to see weakness in this economy? If it does in
Speaker 4: fact accelerate to some degree, will it be in the
Speaker 4: labor market? What we see unemployment kind of inching above
Speaker 4: four percent?
Speaker 1: Oh, we think the unemployment rate could take up to
Speaker 1: maybe four point two percent, but that's really low, and
Speaker 1: that's still a pretty good labor market. I think the
Speaker 1: thing is that consumers if the FED season, consumers are
Speaker 1: still working, but they pull back on spending and that
Speaker 1: helps cool inflation. That's a perfect scenario. It's when people
Speaker 1: start losing jobs. I think that's when the FED gets
Speaker 1: really worried and might accelerate interest rate cuts.
Speaker 4: So do you expect this Fed to sit pat here
Speaker 4: in the upcoming meetings and maybe wait until maybe even
Speaker 4: December or maybe even later.
Speaker 1: Yes, we think the Fed's going to stay put. Certainly
Speaker 1: inflation is their biggest issue and it's still sticky. So
Speaker 1: tomorrow's number again will be really important to see if
Speaker 1: the easing that we saw in CPI shows up in PCE.
Speaker 1: We have the FED cutting in November and December, I.
Speaker 2: Stand corrected, had egsit ten dollars? No boy, and I said,
Speaker 2: you gotta be kidding me. Dana Peterson, of course, nailing it.
Speaker 2: On the research side, the basic hole paycheck eggs are
Speaker 2: four dollars nineteen cents, and then you work yourself up six, seven,
Speaker 2: eight dollars. I don't know. The ones I buy are
Speaker 2: seven dollars twenty nine cents, and there is a dozen
Speaker 2: eggs for nine dollars ninety nine cents.
Speaker 3: Dana Peterson nailed it, nails it cares about exactly, Dana.
Speaker 2: Are we substituting? Am I looking at nine dollars ninety
Speaker 2: nine cent eggs and saying, oh, no, I'm not going
Speaker 2: to do it. I'm gonna buy the seven dollars twenty
Speaker 2: nine cent eggs.
Speaker 1: Yes, people are definitely trading down. They're buying the store brands,
Speaker 1: and so we're seeing that with goods and big ticket
Speaker 1: items they're not purchasing like cars that they are buying
Speaker 1: a car, they're buying a used one, not a new one.
Speaker 1: But also with services, they're saying I'm not going to
Speaker 1: go to the movies, I will stay at home and
Speaker 1: stream and if I do payper services. It's going to
Speaker 1: be my health insurance and it's also going to be
Speaker 1: my car insurance.
Speaker 4: So the expectations for inflation, I know that's important for
Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve. What does your data show about consumers
Speaker 4: expectations for inflation?
Speaker 1: Well, the good news is that our one year inflation
Speaker 1: expectations gauge continues to take downward. It was very elevated
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. It's much better now. Even
Speaker 1: though consumers are complaining now, they're saying, well, we hope
Speaker 1: things will be better in the future, and that our
Speaker 1: wallets will be happy about that.
Speaker 4: All right. So at the end of the day here,
Speaker 4: I mean this Federal Reserve probably going to ease. Is
Speaker 4: that gonna be enough for this US economy? Does this
Speaker 4: US economy need more rate cuts faster? Or do you
Speaker 4: think this economy can kind of hang in there and
Speaker 4: that soft landing can continue.
Speaker 1: I think the economy can hang in there. Again, the
Speaker 1: key is people working. Long as people have some income
Speaker 1: coming in and they can still pay for the basics,
Speaker 1: then that's a good economy. People may not feel that
Speaker 1: way because people like to have excess and they like
Speaker 1: to be able to spend but from the Fed's point
Speaker 1: of point of view, a healthy labor market is important.
Speaker 1: But more importantly, they need to get inflation down because
Speaker 1: everyone feels inflation.
Speaker 2: At least I'm to tell you. Can you get eggsit Costcote's.
Speaker 5: Only place you want to get them?
Speaker 2: Okay, Really, what's what's a dozen.
Speaker 5: Outsc No, you don't get a dozen, You get the
Speaker 5: tune dozen, like the double whammy pack.
Speaker 2: Yes, so, so, Dana Peterson, is a double wham consumption
Speaker 2: in America because people are totally strapped. I mean we are.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's definitely what we're seeing in the data and
Speaker 1: what we're hearing from the writings from consumers. But again,
Speaker 1: the economy probably was a little bit overheated last year,
Speaker 1: and the thing is that we're seeing this cooling and
Speaker 1: that's necessar for inflation to get lower. But again, their
Speaker 1: key elements of inflation that the FED is kind of
Speaker 1: losing the war on, certainly when it comes to insurance
Speaker 1: costs and even wages, and that's a reflection of tightness
Speaker 1: in the labor market and labor shorages, and that's feeding
Speaker 1: through to inflation.
Speaker 2: Dana, you got to talk to Lisa Mattel, you know,
Speaker 2: as you do your wonderful research for the conference board.
Speaker 2: Joining us now. The only person I want to talk
Speaker 2: to on this day, Wendy Schiller, is definitive, whatever your
Speaker 2: politics at Brown University, on all that we're observing here, Wendy,
Speaker 2: I'm just going to frame the ages for you. Nixon
Speaker 2: and JFK were something like forty two, forty three, and
Speaker 2: forty seven. At the nineteen sixty debate. I went back
Speaker 2: and I looked, and Woodrow Wilson with a deceased wife
Speaker 2: in the White House would have been something like sixty
Speaker 2: three sixty four, it had debate if it had happened
Speaker 2: in nine teen sixteen, And tonight we have a seventy
Speaker 2: eight year old and an eighty one year old debating
Speaker 2: this is just flat out historic. How do you frame
Speaker 2: the age issue around what we will see tonight at
Speaker 2: nine pm?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I think it's an interesting thing for
Speaker 6: all of americ to watch. I mean, on the one hand,
Speaker 6: you can feel pretty happy about life expectancy in America
Speaker 6: and functionality.
Speaker 7: I mean, forty years ago, Ronald.
Speaker 6: Reagan was you know, pretty old by most standards when
Speaker 6: he assumed the presidency.
Speaker 7: So it's not as if we haven't seen this before.
Speaker 6: And if you think, well, we're in better shape than
Speaker 6: we were forty years ago, you know, why not somebody
Speaker 6: in their mid seventies. But we're not even in the
Speaker 6: mid seventies. We're at, you know, seventy eight and eighty one.
Speaker 6: So I think, you know it's up there, and I'm
Speaker 6: curious at nine o'clock.
Speaker 7: At night for ninety minutes. You know, who could function well.
Speaker 6: Under those circumstances, either in your forties or or your seventies.
Speaker 7: That's going to be interesting thing.
Speaker 6: But we know these candidate and we know their frailties
Speaker 6: and their flaws, and we know their strengths. You know,
Speaker 6: you've got to figure Trump will look more energetic and
Speaker 6: more vibrant because that's just the way he rolls. And
Speaker 6: Biden's going to have to do everything he can, I think,
Speaker 6: to keep up with that kind of energy.
Speaker 4: Wendy, who do you think has more to lose tonight?
Speaker 7: Paul, I definitely think Biden.
Speaker 6: President Biden has more to lose tonight. You know, we
Speaker 6: have seen these polls tightened. You know, let's go back
Speaker 6: to January December. Even in swing states. Now Trump's ahead,
Speaker 6: but by less and you know the national polls. There's
Speaker 6: three major national polls this week. They all have them
Speaker 6: within the Cisco margin of error. They're all tied, essentially,
Speaker 6: So the person who has the most to lose is
Speaker 6: the incommon president who's been catching up slowly but surely
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump. And sort of people are saying, well,
Speaker 6: maybe Biden won't be that bad, maybe he's in better
Speaker 6: shape than we think. But if he stumbles badly tonight,
Speaker 6: I think that's going to bring those levels of concern
Speaker 6: about his age back into the mix, and I think
Speaker 6: it could cost him.
Speaker 4: Wendy, what do you think about the debate parameters here
Speaker 4: tonight in terms of no audience, muting the other candidates, Mike,
Speaker 4: what's that all about?
Speaker 6: Actually, both to my previous point, I think muting the
Speaker 6: mic helps Biden more than it helps Trump because Trump's off.
Speaker 7: The cup remarks.
Speaker 6: Really, you know that his audience loves that. In other words,
Speaker 6: you know, his base loves that. You know, most Democrats
Speaker 6: cringe when Biden goes off off remarks, you know, off script.
Speaker 6: So those sort of miked comments I think by Biden
Speaker 6: could get him in more trouble than Trump. So this
Speaker 6: is a good thing for Biden. The studio audience, I
Speaker 6: think is a shame. I mean, it's America.
Speaker 7: We have elections regularly.
Speaker 6: Scheduled, constitutionally mandated elections, and part of that process is
Speaker 6: audience input voter input. So it's unfortunate that the audience
Speaker 6: won't be allowed to be in the studio with the candidate.
Speaker 2: What is your guest, Professor Schiller, of the topic that
Speaker 2: will cause both candidates to pause?
Speaker 6: Well, I think Biden is going to really I mean,
Speaker 6: the strategy has got to be make Trump lose it,
Speaker 6: you know, in a way that you know Trump can
Speaker 6: lose it, but really lose it and really scare those
Speaker 6: independents who have stayed away from Trump and Trump backed candidates.
Speaker 6: We've even seen that this week in Republican primaries. Trump
Speaker 6: candidates did not do so well in their house races.
Speaker 6: So really scare people about the prospect of Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: And Trump has to get Biden to stumble, stumble stumble.
Speaker 6: The border border border, I think it's really going even
Speaker 6: things are better at the border since the executive order
Speaker 6: a couple of weeks ago, but still, you know, Trump's
Speaker 6: gotta get under Biden's skin and vice versa.
Speaker 2: My guess is a complete amateur. I defer to David
Speaker 2: gerge Oman thep caia lines, the wull border thing. Is
Speaker 2: that going to be what's a tinder box?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely, yes, Wendy, Why are we having this debate
Speaker 4: so early in the campaign cycle season.
Speaker 6: I think it was a moment of opportunity for each
Speaker 6: candidate to before the conventions, to go into the summer
Speaker 6: with some momentum. Right, as we just said, they're tied, right,
Speaker 6: Biden has slow momentum catching up to Trump, but they're.
Speaker 7: Tied, so this could be breakout.
Speaker 6: Right, Trump seems more reasonable, let's say tonight and independence
Speaker 6: come back to him.
Speaker 7: Biden seems stronger, more vibrant than people thought.
Speaker 6: Then he gets some momentum swaying going before the conventions,
Speaker 6: not after, and I think that is a big thing
Speaker 6: for both candidates.
Speaker 2: And now we Segiwy for one final question with Wendy Schiller.
Speaker 2: We can do this, folks, Lisa Matteo, Wendy featured a
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal article on the rise of Hispanic America.
Speaker 2: What will be the impact of Hispanic America on November fifth.
Speaker 7: Well, Lisa, that's a great thing to look at.
Speaker 6: We have this conversation every four years at least for
Speaker 6: the last decade, how the Latino vote Hispanic vote will
Speaker 6: make the difference. Forty eight percent turnout of registered Hispanic
Speaker 6: votes stays pretty much the same in the last three
Speaker 6: presidential cycles. I'm not thinking that's changing much, except if Trump,
Speaker 6: let's say, picks Mark or Rubio who's of Cuban descent.
Speaker 7: Latinos are not monolithic.
Speaker 6: Doesn't mean every Latino vote for and Rubio, but it
Speaker 6: certainly is a very significant sign by the Republican Party.
Speaker 6: They're going after Latino votes in a much stronger way
Speaker 6: than ever before. So maybe we see a difference, but
Speaker 6: we have not seen the condo of surgeon turn out
Speaker 6: in the last three presidential.
Speaker 5: Life sort of go yeah, Wenny, the age of the
Speaker 5: Hispanic population, they also skew younger. How is that going
Speaker 5: to be in relation to how they react to it.
Speaker 5: Are they looking for that younger voter?
Speaker 6: Yeah, Lisa, that's a really good point because, especially in
Speaker 6: the last ten to fifteen years, those younger voters now
Speaker 6: can vote right. So we've always had a young Dish population,
Speaker 6: but now we've got younger voters, and the question is
Speaker 6: things like abortion, reproductive services, Latinos tend to be more Catholic,
Speaker 6: tend to be.
Speaker 7: More conservative on abortion and other social issues.
Speaker 6: However, younger Latinos in some segments of the Latino population
Speaker 6: are strong supporters of the right to abortion. So that's
Speaker 6: going to be a big issue. And that's where Biden
Speaker 6: can get Trump. Can he get Trump to commit to
Speaker 6: not enforcing a ban, in other words, not deny contraception.
Speaker 7: Can he get them on.
Speaker 6: The record, and can you go after a portion in
Speaker 6: the Republicans. That's going to be a big thing for
Speaker 6: even young Latino voters.
Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller thrilled. Will being honored to have you on
Speaker 2: tomorrow if we can figure out your schedule. Wendy Schiller
Speaker 2: at Brown University. Her Civics textbooks are Her Civics textbooks
Speaker 2: are definitive. The Lisa Matteo's show, the front page is Lisa,
Speaker 2: what do you have?
Speaker 5: Okay? The latest Census Bureau stats came out, so I
Speaker 5: want to point out something the growing number of Hispanics.
Speaker 5: This is what stood out to the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 5: They have this great breakdown of it US. Hispanic population
Speaker 5: grew by one point one to six million to more
Speaker 5: than sixty five million in the recently estimated year, so
Speaker 5: that accounts for about seventy percent of overall population growth
Speaker 5: in that period. Now, about one third of that gain
Speaker 5: it was due to migrants entering the US. The rest
Speaker 5: came from Hispanic birth's out numbering deaths. But what stands
Speaker 5: out is that that growth help offset the shrinking non
Speaker 5: Hispanic population, especially places like Philadelphia. Milwaukee was another one
Speaker 5: sawt Lake City, Louisville, Kentucky, parts several counties in Florida,
Speaker 5: and the breakdown. The biggest part of that was Mexicans
Speaker 5: and then the Venezuelan population is growing the fastest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a terrific article and it really harkens
Speaker 2: the changes I remember pushing twenty years ago. Somebody said
Speaker 2: two thy forty five is a tip point demographically for America.
Speaker 2: I think it's pulled in and you're going to hear
Speaker 2: it in tonight's debate.
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what about thirty years ago. I was
Speaker 4: part of a group that took Univision Television public here
Speaker 4: in the United States. The demographics you just mentioned were
Speaker 4: the exact same demographics we talked about thirty years ago, exactly.
Speaker 2: Okay, it's just trends in place and it's all it's
Speaker 2: a really really thorough article that was by the journal.
Speaker 5: Was yes, by the Wall Street Journals.
Speaker 4: Seventeen percent of the US population is Hispanic eighteen percent
Speaker 4: something like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it goes right to too nice to debate.
Speaker 5: Next exactly most definitely, congestion pricing have to talk about.
Speaker 2: They're going to talk about that.
Speaker 5: They will. But now the MTA is saying, because of
Speaker 5: halting it, you know, the congestion pricing plan, they're saying,
Speaker 5: it's going to have to cut capital. It's capital plan
Speaker 5: sixteen point five billion dollars in subway upgrades, that's what
Speaker 5: they're pointing to. How that breaks down. They plan to
Speaker 5: make subway stations more accessible, to write it with disabilities.
Speaker 5: Now they can't do that. Repairs to infrastructure that's like
Speaker 5: a century old. You have the expansion of the Second
Speaker 5: Avenue subway line could be affected, and also other projects
Speaker 5: as well. So they're saying, because this was paused, now
Speaker 5: you have where are we going to get the money
Speaker 5: to do all these things?
Speaker 2: Has anybody's seen a body count of how many a
Speaker 2: jobs are lost or how many jobs won't be formed
Speaker 2: because of this decision? To me, it's a big number.
Speaker 2: I don't know what the number is.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well yesterday we did that story with that one
Speaker 5: group saying that about I was hundred thousand jobs. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 5: out of lot.
Speaker 4: Knowre's where those numbers come from. I mean, yeah, if
Speaker 4: you're for the MTA, they've they've got to figure out
Speaker 4: a way here to a balance the budget and b
Speaker 4: find some capital to continue to put up the maintenance
Speaker 4: capexcept nothing else.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I have no pearls of wisdom. I
Speaker 2: don't know no other than folks. When you go up
Speaker 2: the roads here, you know, when I leave the building,
Speaker 2: like at five point thirty, you know there's those big
Speaker 2: cameras that John Tucker talks about.
Speaker 4: Who's span for those?
Speaker 5: They're dark?
Speaker 2: Yep, there's no other way to put it. Next.
Speaker 5: All right, we talked about Amazon the two trillion dollar
Speaker 5: market valuation, right, but some new data is showing that
Speaker 5: more people are watching Amazon Prime Video. Okay, this is
Speaker 5: an evercore is SI study. It did it of Amazon users.
Speaker 5: So Amazon's Prime video engagement eighty percent, fifty percent polled
Speaker 5: said they're watching more than before. Sports is helping a
Speaker 5: big thing, they said. Fifty eight percent of Prime members
Speaker 5: watch at least part of that. You know, they had
Speaker 5: the NFL Thursday Night Football, But they said why it's
Speaker 5: important is because it's helping keep people paying the one
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty nine dollars a year for Amazon Prime.
Speaker 2: Is that how much Amazon price it is?
Speaker 1: It is?
Speaker 2: It asked me, I would have said ninety nine dollars.
Speaker 5: No, it's like forty higher than that. It's crazy. And
Speaker 5: so because they get the people who want the Prime,
Speaker 5: they get more people to to buy on Amazon because
Speaker 5: they're getting competition from places like Timu and and all
Speaker 5: that other kind of stuff. But it also shows that
Speaker 5: Amazon has this big opportunity which Paul was talking about
Speaker 5: in advertising. So it shows the potentially.
Speaker 2: This brilliant yesterday for folks. One of the reasons to
Speaker 2: be part of Bloomberg Podcasts is you get to see
Speaker 2: everything on Bloomberg Radio, including extensive comments from mister Weezer
Speaker 2: about this. My amateur take is Prime Video's got a
Speaker 2: new spirit, It's got a new energy because they're not
Speaker 2: apologizing about ads. They show ads all the rest are
Speaker 2: tiptowing around, as Brian alluded to it.
Speaker 5: And they have the original movies. I mean, they have
Speaker 5: a lot of movies that I watched just for Amazon.
Speaker 5: I mean, after I watch it, I'm like, why did
Speaker 5: I watch that? But they do offer the original and
Speaker 5: they really.
Speaker 4: Sad and quite frankly, if they ever really wanted to
Speaker 4: get into this market, I either the entertainment market, they
Speaker 4: could get in a huge way. I mean, I think
Speaker 4: Amazon Prime is good, it's fine, and you know, it's
Speaker 4: a great it's a good streaming church. But if they
Speaker 4: ever wanted to really get into it, they could.
Speaker 5: Next all right, we're talking about pebbling and if you
Speaker 5: do this with your children, it's a new trend if
Speaker 5: you think about it. This was in Parents magazine.
Speaker 4: It's great because pebbling is used to do what is pebbling.
Speaker 5: Pebbling is kind of used to describe a courding, like
Speaker 5: in a relationship, when you're kind of courting someone. It
Speaker 5: came actually from penguins and edit article, because they present
Speaker 5: rocks to each other when they want to court one another.
Speaker 5: This is the origin of it. But now parents are
Speaker 5: doing it with their kids. They're courting them with communication.
Speaker 5: So how they're doing it. If you're having a tough
Speaker 5: time talking with your kids, they're texting them funny memes
Speaker 5: like they're sending them a link to a song that
Speaker 5: reminds me.
Speaker 7: Call those dad jokes.
Speaker 5: You can send them dad jokes. Okay, you can put
Speaker 5: up little post it notes on the mirror your conspiration.
Speaker 5: Here's the reason.
Speaker 2: Do you do this at the matos? Can you see her?
Speaker 2: Can you see her Saturday morning on the way to Costco.
Speaker 2: She's in the kitchen screaming in the west wing. If
Speaker 2: you don't empty the dishwasher, kill you.
Speaker 5: They get those text messages too, Yes, please empty the dishwasher.
Speaker 5: But it's also about sending you know, like if they
Speaker 5: have a game, you know, like good luck, you're gonna
Speaker 5: do great. Love you like sending those positive little things
Speaker 5: to your kids because it actually experts say it sends
Speaker 5: off this little signal to your brain releases dopamines. Okay,
Speaker 5: so there's some some signs.
Speaker 2: This new contract. We have to do this garbage? Is
Speaker 2: that what the sensit of? Lisa?
Speaker 4: I love it because tough Lisa. No junk food in
Speaker 4: my household.
Speaker 7: That's the like, that's.
Speaker 5: The one too. But nowadays parents have a tough time
Speaker 5: talking to their kids so because of technology, So this
Speaker 5: is one way for them to kind of break the
Speaker 5: ice so that you become cool again.
Speaker 2: Maybe do you put post it notes on their mirrors?
Speaker 5: I did like twice.
Speaker 2: Maybe can I just say I can't get to afterthoughts
Speaker 2: mirrors because there's so much Sephora investment. That is true,
Speaker 2: that is true. Do we get this five days a
Speaker 2: week from you? Yes?
Speaker 5: You are have the pleasure of getting this.
Speaker 4: Is sponsored coming on, I'm going to get this sponsored.
Speaker 1: This I'm telling you.
Speaker 5: I bet people are talking on the chat about pebbling
Speaker 5: if they do it with their kids.
Speaker 4: I'm telling you it's going to be a thing.
Speaker 2: I guess. Lisa Matello, thank you so much for the newspapers.
Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best
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