WEBVTT - A Look Ahead to PCE and the Biden-Trump Debate 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.199 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:50.240 well timed. We are really going to digress from debate 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:55.760 chat economics, finance, and you know what, folks were just 0:00:55.840 --> 0:01:01.320 going to concentrate on yen and on intervention this week. 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.640 And Derren Meyer is hugely qualified with the Hong Kong 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.760 and Shanghai Banking Corporation. He's just be seeing and joins 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:11.720 us in the studio. Is there a convenient time to 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:17.560 do a unilateral intervention like this? Sunday our time, six 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.959 seven pm work Monday morning, Japan time. 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:25.400 It's certainly on the list of possibilities. I suspect Friday 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.440 afternoon is a good one in New York time, as. 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:28.600 We Friday in New York time. 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.880 Yeah, it's dinner liquidity, bigger bank falls. 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.920 On the sea streak, yep on the deck in Atlanta Highlands. 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.319 Lise is going to costco let's intervene. Is that how 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:38.800 it works? 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.080 I think that'll be exactly what Japan's MOF has in mind. 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:46.600 They'll be thinking about Costco the look it's ten liquidity 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.840 and an acchi. I guess. Look, the way we have 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:52.000 to think about it is the other way around. Under 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:55.280 what conditions might the spot market be racing higher? That 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.240 will give the MOF cover to come in because at 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.320 the moment what we have hire is dolly En grinding higher. 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:03.200 That isn't a trigger. That isn't a trigger. 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.200 You went to one of the toughest schools out there, 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:11.120 U see Dublin, Okay, and they taught you intervention. Where 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:15.919 in your literature does it say unilateral intervention works. I've 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:16.600 never found it. 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.280 I've never found it. And I was told by tough 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:22.240 Catholic priests, so you know there was harsh lessons there. 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.760 I would say, I would say it's working. So I'm 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:27.639 going to push back on that, I would say it's 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.880 working because what we have to think about is a counterfactual. 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.919 Had there not been all this chatter about possible intervention, 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:37.320 the actual intervention, where would dollar en be trading right now? 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:38.800 I mean, I think it's safe to say a whole 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:42.040 lot higher. So you know, it depends how you define success. 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:45.440 And you know, this has been a market where it's 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:49.240 very hard to find people who will kind of play 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.640 the downside dollary en trade. They might talk about it, 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.520 we do in our forecast three months, six months, and 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:56.760 we all end up snow plowing it further into the 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:59.440 future as dolly n just keeps grinding higher. And I 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:01.240 think that's what the MF and you know and the 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.080 boj on their behalf are are going to have to 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.880 step in potentially to try and reintroduce meaningful two way risk. 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.800 There is there a barecase for the US dollar anywhere. 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:14.480 It's a narrow path to a weaker dollar. You kind 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.800 of need that global Goldilock scenario of falling inflation and 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:23.280 growth recovering, and you know, you get patches of it, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.600 and we've had them a couple of months ago in Europe, 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.120 and then you get another soft patch in Europe as 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.200 we've had over the last couple of weeks, and at 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.240 the end of the day, the US economy, I know 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.520 this morning, you know, we've had a small revision, but 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:39.200 final domestic demands still strong. Atlanta fed GDP now punching 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:41.680 along at three percent for the second quarter. It's the 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.120 US exceptions that the joke I make as Goldilocks as 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.240 an American accent, you know, and I think that's true, 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.440 and so long as that remains true, it's hard to 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:51.240 be I think a pervasive seller of the dollar. 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:55.400 All right, we've got some political issues in France in 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:59.840 the UK, how does that impact the ural the pounds 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:00.720 to it? 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.360 Certainly impacted euro I mean you can see that in 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:05.520 terms of the relationship with the euro and the French 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.080 spreads over German buns. That's that's been quite evident. I 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.680 think we've reached kind of holding point ahead of the 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:15.160 first round of the elections in France. The Marks want 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.080 to see how that plays out, how many of Macron's 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.120 candidates make it through the second round. So I think 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.800 we're kind of in a holding pattern there. UK, do 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:23.960 you know, I think I don't think Sterling cares I 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:27.000 really don't think Sterling cares, which is my sales team 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:28.560 back in the trading for a now, we will be 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.719 wincing because you know, I've kind of killed a whole 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:33.600 trade for the least call clients. But yeah, I think 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:34.320 that's the reality. 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.320 At the moment, I'm looking at the cacophony of like 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.960 nineteen ninety two out to nineteen ninety eight as well. 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:44.800 Something totally obscure is sing dollars Singapore dollar well versus 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:49.560 the Japanese yen soap opera off the pandemic. I have 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:54.840 roughly sixty percent appreciation of the Japanese yen versus a 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:58.839 vibrant Singapore, And even if I go center tendency back 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:03.760 three decades, I'm still talking a massive depreciation. How many 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.480 toyotas are they buying in Singapore? 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:11.040 Well, apparently not that many Japanese exports are not exactly 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:13.000 surging at the moment. Well, I don't know. I can 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:14.600 give you one reason. I lived in Singapore in the 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:16.640 in the mid nineties, and they add a lot of 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:18.360 They add a lot of money to what I cost 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.320 to import a car into Singapore, So maybe there's different 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.360 things going on there. It's a weird thing. It's you 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:26.880 are seeing the compression of import demand in Japan, which 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:30.680 is to be expected. You are seeing tourists visiting Japan 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.160 because it is a super place in relative terms. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.840 To me official in a rescue I said, yesterday's Chinese 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:37.400 are going to Japan to. 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.919 Shut Yeah, and you can see why. The difficulty is 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.800 you are still trying to export into a weak global economy. 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:46.839 So it's fine saying we're price competitive and we're cheaper 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.200 now than we wear back in the nineties or even 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.680 six months ago. But if demand isn't there in the 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:55.480 quantum you need, then perhaps you can't kill The. 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:59.560 Large question which goes to Hspecies Wheelhouse with huge heritage 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:07.039 here is their inflation, their overt inflation experiment. A is 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:10.440 it done? And B it does it fail? Is they 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.080 go back to disinflation and painful deflation. 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:15.640 It doesn't feel that way. It feels as though they 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:19.320 have kind of broken the cycle of inflation deflation expectations 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.480 within Japan, and that's the key. And also I think 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.360 what's happening on the wages front in Japan will give 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:28.840 the boj some degree of comfort that they might have 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:32.320 begun to create a virtuous circle between wages and sustaining 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:35.719 those inflation expectations. So look, I think we've moved a 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:39.720 long way from a really persistent deflation mindset in Japan. 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.120 But you know, at the end of the day, it's 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.400 been helped a lot by this week currency. It adds 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.599 to Japanese prices, that adds the perception of inflation for 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.400 everything that you're importing. So the job's not done. But look, 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:55.119 it's amazing that we're talking about Japan raising rates when 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.120 the rest of g Tennis cutting rates. I mean, how 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:00.000 many times have we had that conversation, So it's really weird. 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:16.400 Dermier, thank you so much. He's with HSBC. Dana Peterson. Yeah, 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.080 the last time she was on, she was just lights 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:23.120 out on the American consumer. Dana, it's unfair with the 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.120 data coming out, But what is your model of Q 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:30.239 two GDP right now? We had someone on earlier modeling 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:35.160 a sprightly two point three percent. Do you agree? 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.840 Well, we actually have GDP growth probably between zero and 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:42.480 one percent annualized in the second quarter. Now we could 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.280 revise that up a little bit. It really depends on 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.520 what we see tomorrow with the personal income and spending data. 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.800 But consumers are pulling back, and it's a reflection of 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.200 the fact that excess savings are gone, real incomes are 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.040 below real spending, and people are levering up and paying 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.400 a lot of interest on their debt. 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:01.840 Yeah, this is what surveillance is about. We like the 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.040 difference of opinions. We don't have an opinion, but we're 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.040 going to listen to those more optimistic and those like 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.720 Dana Peterson sub one percent exactly. 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.679 So Dana, talk to us about the consumer out there. 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.600 I mean, essentially, the consumer wants a job. He or 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:20.000 she has a job, Wages are increasing. How do you 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:21.320 see the consumer here today? 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.560 It's really mixed. Consumers are saying, yes, I'm working, I 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:29.680 like that, my finances are okay. The present situation is fine, 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.400 but they're still complaining about elevated prices, you know, eggs 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:36.720 or eight bucks, bread ten you know. And they're also 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.800 concerned more concerned about the future, their expectations for the 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:43.600 labor Marketer story, you wrote a bit. They're concerned about 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:48.400 their incomes. They're also very concerned about business conditions going forward, 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:50.560 and we're seeing this tug of war. It looks like 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:54.160 expectations that are weakening or starting to take over a 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:55.160 little bit in the numbers. 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.679 So where are we going to see that? We are 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:00.800 we going to see that in? Where were we going 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.040 to see weakness in this economy? If it does in 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.720 fact accelerate to some degree, will it be in the 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:09.000 labor market? What we see unemployment kind of inching above 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:09.720 four percent? 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.960 Oh, we think the unemployment rate could take up to 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:15.240 maybe four point two percent, but that's really low, and 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:17.960 that's still a pretty good labor market. I think the 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:21.120 thing is that consumers if the FED season, consumers are 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.920 still working, but they pull back on spending and that 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.600 helps cool inflation. That's a perfect scenario. It's when people 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.000 start losing jobs. I think that's when the FED gets 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.560 really worried and might accelerate interest rate cuts. 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.280 So do you expect this Fed to sit pat here 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.400 in the upcoming meetings and maybe wait until maybe even 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:40.360 December or maybe even later. 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:44.240 Yes, we think the Fed's going to stay put. Certainly 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.679 inflation is their biggest issue and it's still sticky. So 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:51.600 tomorrow's number again will be really important to see if 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.760 the easing that we saw in CPI shows up in PCE. 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.920 We have the FED cutting in November and December, I. 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:03.240 Stand corrected, had egsit ten dollars? No boy, and I said, 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:07.800 you gotta be kidding me. Dana Peterson, of course, nailing it. 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:12.280 On the research side, the basic hole paycheck eggs are 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:17.120 four dollars nineteen cents, and then you work yourself up six, seven, 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.400 eight dollars. I don't know. The ones I buy are 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:25.280 seven dollars twenty nine cents, and there is a dozen 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:29.240 eggs for nine dollars ninety nine cents. 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:34.360 Dana Peterson nailed it, nails it cares about exactly, Dana. 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:38.199 Are we substituting? Am I looking at nine dollars ninety 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:41.040 nine cent eggs and saying, oh, no, I'm not going 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.480 to do it. I'm gonna buy the seven dollars twenty 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:44.480 nine cent eggs. 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:49.040 Yes, people are definitely trading down. They're buying the store brands, 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:51.920 and so we're seeing that with goods and big ticket 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:54.560 items they're not purchasing like cars that they are buying 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.680 a car, they're buying a used one, not a new one. 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.000 But also with services, they're saying I'm not going to 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:00.920 go to the movies, I will stay at home and 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.560 stream and if I do payper services. It's going to 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.440 be my health insurance and it's also going to be 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:06.479 my car insurance. 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.319 So the expectations for inflation, I know that's important for 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.719 the Federal Reserve. What does your data show about consumers 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:16.840 expectations for inflation? 0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:19.840 Well, the good news is that our one year inflation 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:24.120 expectations gauge continues to take downward. It was very elevated 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:28.200 a couple of years ago. It's much better now. Even 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.120 though consumers are complaining now, they're saying, well, we hope 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:32.959 things will be better in the future, and that our 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.640 wallets will be happy about that. 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.200 All right. So at the end of the day here, 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:44.000 I mean this Federal Reserve probably going to ease. Is 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:45.960 that gonna be enough for this US economy? Does this 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.760 US economy need more rate cuts faster? Or do you 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.360 think this economy can kind of hang in there and 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:54.200 that soft landing can continue. 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.520 I think the economy can hang in there. Again, the 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:01.440 key is people working. Long as people have some income 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.760 coming in and they can still pay for the basics, 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:07.679 then that's a good economy. People may not feel that 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.120 way because people like to have excess and they like 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.360 to be able to spend but from the Fed's point 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:16.360 of point of view, a healthy labor market is important. 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.120 But more importantly, they need to get inflation down because 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:20.400 everyone feels inflation. 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:28.560 At least I'm to tell you. Can you get eggsit Costcote's. 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:26.920 Only place you want to get them? 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:28.880 Okay, Really, what's what's a dozen. 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.520 Outsc No, you don't get a dozen, You get the 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:36.079 tune dozen, like the double whammy pack. 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:41.280 Yes, so, so, Dana Peterson, is a double wham consumption 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.800 in America because people are totally strapped. I mean we are. 0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:48.160 Yes, that's definitely what we're seeing in the data and 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:52.280 what we're hearing from the writings from consumers. But again, 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.680 the economy probably was a little bit overheated last year, 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.360 and the thing is that we're seeing this cooling and 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.400 that's necessar for inflation to get lower. But again, their 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.120 key elements of inflation that the FED is kind of 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:08.679 losing the war on, certainly when it comes to insurance 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.920 costs and even wages, and that's a reflection of tightness 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:14.240 in the labor market and labor shorages, and that's feeding 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:15.640 through to inflation. 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:18.000 Dana, you got to talk to Lisa Mattel, you know, 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.440 as you do your wonderful research for the conference board. 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:28.280 Joining us now. The only person I want to talk 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:32.840 to on this day, Wendy Schiller, is definitive, whatever your 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:38.040 politics at Brown University, on all that we're observing here, Wendy, 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:41.920 I'm just going to frame the ages for you. Nixon 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.160 and JFK were something like forty two, forty three, and 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:49.200 forty seven. At the nineteen sixty debate. I went back 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.880 and I looked, and Woodrow Wilson with a deceased wife 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:56.199 in the White House would have been something like sixty 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:59.600 three sixty four, it had debate if it had happened 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.320 in nine teen sixteen, And tonight we have a seventy 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.599 eight year old and an eighty one year old debating 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:11.000 this is just flat out historic. How do you frame 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.320 the age issue around what we will see tonight at 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:16.239 nine pm? 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:19.720 Well, I mean, I think it's an interesting thing for 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.040 all of americ to watch. I mean, on the one hand, 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.760 you can feel pretty happy about life expectancy in America 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:25.760 and functionality. 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:27.560 I mean, forty years ago, Ronald. 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.480 Reagan was you know, pretty old by most standards when 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:31.720 he assumed the presidency. 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.120 So it's not as if we haven't seen this before. 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.040 And if you think, well, we're in better shape than 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.160 we were forty years ago, you know, why not somebody 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.240 in their mid seventies. But we're not even in the 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:45.000 mid seventies. We're at, you know, seventy eight and eighty one. 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.600 So I think, you know it's up there, and I'm 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.400 curious at nine o'clock. 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:52.920 At night for ninety minutes. You know, who could function well. 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:56.320 Under those circumstances, either in your forties or or your seventies. 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.000 That's going to be interesting thing. 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.040 But we know these candidate and we know their frailties 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.600 and their flaws, and we know their strengths. You know, 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.280 you've got to figure Trump will look more energetic and 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.800 more vibrant because that's just the way he rolls. And 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:14.360 Biden's going to have to do everything he can, I think, 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:15.760 to keep up with that kind of energy. 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:19.880 Wendy, who do you think has more to lose tonight? 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:22.520 Paul, I definitely think Biden. 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.160 President Biden has more to lose tonight. You know, we 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.400 have seen these polls tightened. You know, let's go back 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:31.000 to January December. Even in swing states. Now Trump's ahead, 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.360 but by less and you know the national polls. There's 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:35.840 three major national polls this week. They all have them 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:39.200 within the Cisco margin of error. They're all tied, essentially, 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.120 So the person who has the most to lose is 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:45.560 the incommon president who's been catching up slowly but surely 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.920 to Donald Trump. And sort of people are saying, well, 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:51.360 maybe Biden won't be that bad, maybe he's in better 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.360 shape than we think. But if he stumbles badly tonight, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:56.440 I think that's going to bring those levels of concern 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.800 about his age back into the mix, and I think 0:15:58.800 --> 0:15:59.720 it could cost him. 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.880 Wendy, what do you think about the debate parameters here 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:08.160 tonight in terms of no audience, muting the other candidates, Mike, 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:09.720 what's that all about? 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.400 Actually, both to my previous point, I think muting the 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:17.080 mic helps Biden more than it helps Trump because Trump's off. 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:17.760 The cup remarks. 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:20.520 Really, you know that his audience loves that. In other words, 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.280 you know, his base loves that. You know, most Democrats 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.880 cringe when Biden goes off off remarks, you know, off script. 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.040 So those sort of miked comments I think by Biden 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.080 could get him in more trouble than Trump. So this 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:34.280 is a good thing for Biden. The studio audience, I 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.160 think is a shame. I mean, it's America. 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.120 We have elections regularly. 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:42.480 Scheduled, constitutionally mandated elections, and part of that process is 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:46.760 audience input voter input. So it's unfortunate that the audience 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.400 won't be allowed to be in the studio with the candidate. 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:53.760 What is your guest, Professor Schiller, of the topic that 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.240 will cause both candidates to pause? 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:00.320 Well, I think Biden is going to really I mean, 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.840 the strategy has got to be make Trump lose it, 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:04.880 you know, in a way that you know Trump can 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.560 lose it, but really lose it and really scare those 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:11.120 independents who have stayed away from Trump and Trump backed candidates. 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.840 We've even seen that this week in Republican primaries. Trump 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.240 candidates did not do so well in their house races. 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.399 So really scare people about the prospect of Donald Trump. 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.280 And Trump has to get Biden to stumble, stumble stumble. 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.680 The border border border, I think it's really going even 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.159 things are better at the border since the executive order 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.520 a couple of weeks ago, but still, you know, Trump's 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:33.640 gotta get under Biden's skin and vice versa. 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.000 My guess is a complete amateur. I defer to David 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.159 gerge Oman thep caia lines, the wull border thing. Is 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.080 that going to be what's a tinder box? 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.879 Yeah? Absolutely, yes, Wendy, Why are we having this debate 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.439 so early in the campaign cycle season. 0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:52.360 I think it was a moment of opportunity for each 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.760 candidate to before the conventions, to go into the summer 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.760 with some momentum. Right, as we just said, they're tied, right, 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.120 Biden has slow momentum catching up to Trump, but they're. 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:03.840 Tied, so this could be breakout. 0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:07.240 Right, Trump seems more reasonable, let's say tonight and independence 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:08.000 come back to him. 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.440 Biden seems stronger, more vibrant than people thought. 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:14.360 Then he gets some momentum swaying going before the conventions, 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.240 not after, and I think that is a big thing 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:17.960 for both candidates. 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.479 And now we Segiwy for one final question with Wendy Schiller. 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:24.960 We can do this, folks, Lisa Matteo, Wendy featured a 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:29.440 Wall Street Journal article on the rise of Hispanic America. 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:34.040 What will be the impact of Hispanic America on November fifth. 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:36.440 Well, Lisa, that's a great thing to look at. 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:39.000 We have this conversation every four years at least for 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:42.160 the last decade, how the Latino vote Hispanic vote will 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:46.479 make the difference. Forty eight percent turnout of registered Hispanic 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.000 votes stays pretty much the same in the last three 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:53.920 presidential cycles. I'm not thinking that's changing much, except if Trump, 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.359 let's say, picks Mark or Rubio who's of Cuban descent. 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:58.119 Latinos are not monolithic. 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:01.240 Doesn't mean every Latino vote for and Rubio, but it 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.920 certainly is a very significant sign by the Republican Party. 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.040 They're going after Latino votes in a much stronger way 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.720 than ever before. So maybe we see a difference, but 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:11.880 we have not seen the condo of surgeon turn out 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:13.520 in the last three presidential. 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.919 Life sort of go yeah, Wenny, the age of the 0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:19.959 Hispanic population, they also skew younger. How is that going 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:21.439 to be in relation to how they react to it. 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:22.920 Are they looking for that younger voter? 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.480 Yeah, Lisa, that's a really good point because, especially in 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.080 the last ten to fifteen years, those younger voters now 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:32.240 can vote right. So we've always had a young Dish population, 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.600 but now we've got younger voters, and the question is 0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:39.880 things like abortion, reproductive services, Latinos tend to be more Catholic, 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:40.440 tend to be. 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:42.840 More conservative on abortion and other social issues. 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:47.840 However, younger Latinos in some segments of the Latino population 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.399 are strong supporters of the right to abortion. So that's 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:53.280 going to be a big issue. And that's where Biden 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.199 can get Trump. Can he get Trump to commit to 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.200 not enforcing a ban, in other words, not deny contraception. 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:00.080 Can he get them on. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.119 The record, and can you go after a portion in 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:04.359 the Republicans. That's going to be a big thing for 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:06.080 even young Latino voters. 0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:08.800 Wendy Schiller thrilled. Will being honored to have you on 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:11.159 tomorrow if we can figure out your schedule. Wendy Schiller 0:20:11.520 --> 0:20:18.200 at Brown University. Her Civics textbooks are Her Civics textbooks 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:32.560 are definitive. The Lisa Matteo's show, the front page is Lisa, 0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:33.160 what do you have? 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:36.359 Okay? The latest Census Bureau stats came out, so I 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.040 want to point out something the growing number of Hispanics. 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:40.680 This is what stood out to the Wall Street Journal. 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.760 They have this great breakdown of it US. Hispanic population 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:45.600 grew by one point one to six million to more 0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.960 than sixty five million in the recently estimated year, so 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:52.760