1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is 11 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 2: well timed. We are really going to digress from debate 12 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 2: chat economics, finance, and you know what, folks were just 13 00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 2: going to concentrate on yen and on intervention this week. 14 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 2: And Derren Meyer is hugely qualified with the Hong Kong 15 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 2: and Shanghai Banking Corporation. He's just be seeing and joins 16 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: us in the studio. Is there a convenient time to 17 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 2: do a unilateral intervention like this? Sunday our time, six 18 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 2: seven pm work Monday morning, Japan time. 19 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 3: It's certainly on the list of possibilities. I suspect Friday 20 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 3: afternoon is a good one in New York time, as. 21 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: We Friday in New York time. 22 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's dinner liquidity, bigger bank falls. 23 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: On the sea streak, yep on the deck in Atlanta Highlands. 24 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 2: Lise is going to costco let's intervene. Is that how 25 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: it works? 26 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 3: I think that'll be exactly what Japan's MOF has in mind. 27 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 3: They'll be thinking about Costco the look it's ten liquidity 28 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: and an acchi. I guess. Look, the way we have 29 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 3: to think about it is the other way around. Under 30 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 3: what conditions might the spot market be racing higher? That 31 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 3: will give the MOF cover to come in because at 32 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 3: the moment what we have hire is dolly En grinding higher. 33 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 3: That isn't a trigger. That isn't a trigger. 34 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 2: You went to one of the toughest schools out there, 35 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: U see Dublin, Okay, and they taught you intervention. Where 36 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 2: in your literature does it say unilateral intervention works. I've 37 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 2: never found it. 38 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 3: I've never found it. And I was told by tough 39 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 3: Catholic priests, so you know there was harsh lessons there. 40 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: I would say, I would say it's working. So I'm 41 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 3: going to push back on that, I would say it's 42 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 3: working because what we have to think about is a counterfactual. 43 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 3: Had there not been all this chatter about possible intervention, 44 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 3: the actual intervention, where would dollar en be trading right now? 45 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's safe to say a whole 46 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 3: lot higher. So you know, it depends how you define success. 47 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 3: And you know, this has been a market where it's 48 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 3: very hard to find people who will kind of play 49 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 3: the downside dollary en trade. They might talk about it, 50 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 3: we do in our forecast three months, six months, and 51 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 3: we all end up snow plowing it further into the 52 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 3: future as dolly n just keeps grinding higher. And I 53 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 3: think that's what the MF and you know and the 54 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 3: boj on their behalf are are going to have to 55 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 3: step in potentially to try and reintroduce meaningful two way risk. 56 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 4: There is there a barecase for the US dollar anywhere. 57 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 3: It's a narrow path to a weaker dollar. You kind 58 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 3: of need that global Goldilock scenario of falling inflation and 59 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 3: growth recovering, and you know, you get patches of it, 60 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 3: and we've had them a couple of months ago in Europe, 61 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 3: and then you get another soft patch in Europe as 62 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 3: we've had over the last couple of weeks, and at 63 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 3: the end of the day, the US economy, I know 64 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 3: this morning, you know, we've had a small revision, but 65 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 3: final domestic demands still strong. Atlanta fed GDP now punching 66 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 3: along at three percent for the second quarter. It's the 67 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 3: US exceptions that the joke I make as Goldilocks as 68 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 3: an American accent, you know, and I think that's true, 69 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: and so long as that remains true, it's hard to 70 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: be I think a pervasive seller of the dollar. 71 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 4: All right, we've got some political issues in France in 72 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 4: the UK, how does that impact the ural the pounds 73 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: to it? 74 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: Certainly impacted euro I mean you can see that in 75 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 3: terms of the relationship with the euro and the French 76 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 3: spreads over German buns. That's that's been quite evident. I 77 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: think we've reached kind of holding point ahead of the 78 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 3: first round of the elections in France. The Marks want 79 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: to see how that plays out, how many of Macron's 80 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 3: candidates make it through the second round. So I think 81 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: we're kind of in a holding pattern there. UK, do 82 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 3: you know, I think I don't think Sterling cares I 83 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 3: really don't think Sterling cares, which is my sales team 84 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: back in the trading for a now, we will be 85 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 3: wincing because you know, I've kind of killed a whole 86 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 3: trade for the least call clients. But yeah, I think 87 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 3: that's the reality. 88 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: At the moment, I'm looking at the cacophony of like 89 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety two out to nineteen ninety eight as well. 90 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: Something totally obscure is sing dollars Singapore dollar well versus 91 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 2: the Japanese yen soap opera off the pandemic. I have 92 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 2: roughly sixty percent appreciation of the Japanese yen versus a 93 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 2: vibrant Singapore, And even if I go center tendency back 94 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: three decades, I'm still talking a massive depreciation. How many 95 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 2: toyotas are they buying in Singapore? 96 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 3: Well, apparently not that many Japanese exports are not exactly 97 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 3: surging at the moment. Well, I don't know. I can 98 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 3: give you one reason. I lived in Singapore in the 99 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 3: in the mid nineties, and they add a lot of 100 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 3: They add a lot of money to what I cost 101 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 3: to import a car into Singapore, So maybe there's different 102 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 3: things going on there. It's a weird thing. It's you 103 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 3: are seeing the compression of import demand in Japan, which 104 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 3: is to be expected. You are seeing tourists visiting Japan 105 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 3: because it is a super place in relative terms. 106 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 2: To me official in a rescue I said, yesterday's Chinese 107 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 2: are going to Japan to. 108 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 3: Shut Yeah, and you can see why. The difficulty is 109 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: you are still trying to export into a weak global economy. 110 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 3: So it's fine saying we're price competitive and we're cheaper 111 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 3: now than we wear back in the nineties or even 112 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: six months ago. But if demand isn't there in the 113 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 3: quantum you need, then perhaps you can't kill The. 114 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 2: Large question which goes to Hspecies Wheelhouse with huge heritage 115 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 2: here is their inflation, their overt inflation experiment. A is 116 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: it done? And B it does it fail? Is they 117 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: go back to disinflation and painful deflation. 118 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 3: It doesn't feel that way. It feels as though they 119 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 3: have kind of broken the cycle of inflation deflation expectations 120 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 3: within Japan, and that's the key. And also I think 121 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 3: what's happening on the wages front in Japan will give 122 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 3: the boj some degree of comfort that they might have 123 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 3: begun to create a virtuous circle between wages and sustaining 124 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 3: those inflation expectations. So look, I think we've moved a 125 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 3: long way from a really persistent deflation mindset in Japan. 126 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 3: But you know, at the end of the day, it's 127 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 3: been helped a lot by this week currency. It adds 128 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,599 Speaker 3: to Japanese prices, that adds the perception of inflation for 129 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 3: everything that you're importing. So the job's not done. But look, 130 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,119 Speaker 3: it's amazing that we're talking about Japan raising rates when 131 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 3: the rest of g Tennis cutting rates. I mean, how 132 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: many times have we had that conversation, So it's really weird. 133 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 2: Dermier, thank you so much. He's with HSBC. Dana Peterson. Yeah, 134 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 2: the last time she was on, she was just lights 135 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: out on the American consumer. Dana, it's unfair with the 136 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 2: data coming out, But what is your model of Q 137 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,239 Speaker 2: two GDP right now? We had someone on earlier modeling 138 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: a sprightly two point three percent. Do you agree? 139 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: Well, we actually have GDP growth probably between zero and 140 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: one percent annualized in the second quarter. Now we could 141 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: revise that up a little bit. It really depends on 142 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: what we see tomorrow with the personal income and spending data. 143 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: But consumers are pulling back, and it's a reflection of 144 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: the fact that excess savings are gone, real incomes are 145 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: below real spending, and people are levering up and paying 146 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: a lot of interest on their debt. 147 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is what surveillance is about. We like the 148 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 2: difference of opinions. We don't have an opinion, but we're 149 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 2: going to listen to those more optimistic and those like 150 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 2: Dana Peterson sub one percent exactly. 151 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,679 Speaker 4: So Dana, talk to us about the consumer out there. 152 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 4: I mean, essentially, the consumer wants a job. He or 153 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 4: she has a job, Wages are increasing. How do you 154 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 4: see the consumer here today? 155 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: It's really mixed. Consumers are saying, yes, I'm working, I 156 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: like that, my finances are okay. The present situation is fine, 157 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: but they're still complaining about elevated prices, you know, eggs 158 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: or eight bucks, bread ten you know. And they're also 159 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: concerned more concerned about the future, their expectations for the 160 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: labor Marketer story, you wrote a bit. They're concerned about 161 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: their incomes. They're also very concerned about business conditions going forward, 162 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: and we're seeing this tug of war. It looks like 163 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 1: expectations that are weakening or starting to take over a 164 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: little bit in the numbers. 165 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 4: So where are we going to see that? We are 166 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 4: we going to see that in? Where were we going 167 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 4: to see weakness in this economy? If it does in 168 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 4: fact accelerate to some degree, will it be in the 169 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 4: labor market? What we see unemployment kind of inching above 170 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 4: four percent? 171 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: Oh, we think the unemployment rate could take up to 172 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: maybe four point two percent, but that's really low, and 173 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: that's still a pretty good labor market. I think the 174 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: thing is that consumers if the FED season, consumers are 175 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: still working, but they pull back on spending and that 176 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: helps cool inflation. That's a perfect scenario. It's when people 177 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: start losing jobs. I think that's when the FED gets 178 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: really worried and might accelerate interest rate cuts. 179 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 4: So do you expect this Fed to sit pat here 180 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 4: in the upcoming meetings and maybe wait until maybe even 181 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 4: December or maybe even later. 182 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: Yes, we think the Fed's going to stay put. Certainly 183 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 1: inflation is their biggest issue and it's still sticky. So 184 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: tomorrow's number again will be really important to see if 185 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: the easing that we saw in CPI shows up in PCE. 186 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: We have the FED cutting in November and December, I. 187 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 2: Stand corrected, had egsit ten dollars? No boy, and I said, 188 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 2: you gotta be kidding me. Dana Peterson, of course, nailing it. 189 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: On the research side, the basic hole paycheck eggs are 190 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 2: four dollars nineteen cents, and then you work yourself up six, seven, 191 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 2: eight dollars. I don't know. The ones I buy are 192 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 2: seven dollars twenty nine cents, and there is a dozen 193 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: eggs for nine dollars ninety nine cents. 194 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 3: Dana Peterson nailed it, nails it cares about exactly, Dana. 195 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 2: Are we substituting? Am I looking at nine dollars ninety 196 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 2: nine cent eggs and saying, oh, no, I'm not going 197 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: to do it. I'm gonna buy the seven dollars twenty 198 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 2: nine cent eggs. 199 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: Yes, people are definitely trading down. They're buying the store brands, 200 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: and so we're seeing that with goods and big ticket 201 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 1: items they're not purchasing like cars that they are buying 202 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: a car, they're buying a used one, not a new one. 203 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: But also with services, they're saying I'm not going to 204 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: go to the movies, I will stay at home and 205 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: stream and if I do payper services. It's going to 206 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: be my health insurance and it's also going to be 207 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:06,479 Speaker 1: my car insurance. 208 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:11,319 Speaker 4: So the expectations for inflation, I know that's important for 209 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,719 Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve. What does your data show about consumers 210 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 4: expectations for inflation? 211 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: Well, the good news is that our one year inflation 212 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: expectations gauge continues to take downward. It was very elevated 213 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. It's much better now. Even 214 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: though consumers are complaining now, they're saying, well, we hope 215 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 1: things will be better in the future, and that our 216 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: wallets will be happy about that. 217 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 4: All right. So at the end of the day here, 218 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 4: I mean this Federal Reserve probably going to ease. Is 219 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 4: that gonna be enough for this US economy? Does this 220 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 4: US economy need more rate cuts faster? Or do you 221 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 4: think this economy can kind of hang in there and 222 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 4: that soft landing can continue. 223 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: I think the economy can hang in there. Again, the 224 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 1: key is people working. Long as people have some income 225 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: coming in and they can still pay for the basics, 226 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 1: then that's a good economy. People may not feel that 227 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: way because people like to have excess and they like 228 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: to be able to spend but from the Fed's point 229 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: of point of view, a healthy labor market is important. 230 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: But more importantly, they need to get inflation down because 231 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: everyone feels inflation. 232 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 2: At least I'm to tell you. Can you get eggsit Costcote's. 233 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 5: Only place you want to get them? 234 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 2: Okay, Really, what's what's a dozen. 235 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 5: Outsc No, you don't get a dozen, You get the 236 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 5: tune dozen, like the double whammy pack. 237 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: Yes, so, so, Dana Peterson, is a double wham consumption 238 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 2: in America because people are totally strapped. I mean we are. 239 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: Yes, that's definitely what we're seeing in the data and 240 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: what we're hearing from the writings from consumers. But again, 241 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 1: the economy probably was a little bit overheated last year, 242 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: and the thing is that we're seeing this cooling and 243 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: that's necessar for inflation to get lower. But again, their 244 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: key elements of inflation that the FED is kind of 245 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 1: losing the war on, certainly when it comes to insurance 246 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: costs and even wages, and that's a reflection of tightness 247 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: in the labor market and labor shorages, and that's feeding 248 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: through to inflation. 249 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: Dana, you got to talk to Lisa Mattel, you know, 250 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 2: as you do your wonderful research for the conference board. 251 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 2: Joining us now. The only person I want to talk 252 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 2: to on this day, Wendy Schiller, is definitive, whatever your 253 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 2: politics at Brown University, on all that we're observing here, Wendy, 254 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: I'm just going to frame the ages for you. Nixon 255 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 2: and JFK were something like forty two, forty three, and 256 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 2: forty seven. At the nineteen sixty debate. I went back 257 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 2: and I looked, and Woodrow Wilson with a deceased wife 258 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 2: in the White House would have been something like sixty 259 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 2: three sixty four, it had debate if it had happened 260 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 2: in nine teen sixteen, And tonight we have a seventy 261 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,599 Speaker 2: eight year old and an eighty one year old debating 262 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 2: this is just flat out historic. How do you frame 263 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 2: the age issue around what we will see tonight at 264 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:16,239 Speaker 2: nine pm? 265 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I think it's an interesting thing for 266 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 6: all of americ to watch. I mean, on the one hand, 267 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 6: you can feel pretty happy about life expectancy in America 268 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 6: and functionality. 269 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 7: I mean, forty years ago, Ronald. 270 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 6: Reagan was you know, pretty old by most standards when 271 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 6: he assumed the presidency. 272 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 7: So it's not as if we haven't seen this before. 273 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 6: And if you think, well, we're in better shape than 274 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 6: we were forty years ago, you know, why not somebody 275 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 6: in their mid seventies. But we're not even in the 276 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 6: mid seventies. We're at, you know, seventy eight and eighty one. 277 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 6: So I think, you know it's up there, and I'm 278 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 6: curious at nine o'clock. 279 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 7: At night for ninety minutes. You know, who could function well. 280 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 6: Under those circumstances, either in your forties or or your seventies. 281 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 7: That's going to be interesting thing. 282 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 6: But we know these candidate and we know their frailties 283 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 6: and their flaws, and we know their strengths. You know, 284 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 6: you've got to figure Trump will look more energetic and 285 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 6: more vibrant because that's just the way he rolls. And 286 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 6: Biden's going to have to do everything he can, I think, 287 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 6: to keep up with that kind of energy. 288 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 4: Wendy, who do you think has more to lose tonight? 289 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 7: Paul, I definitely think Biden. 290 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 6: President Biden has more to lose tonight. You know, we 291 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 6: have seen these polls tightened. You know, let's go back 292 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 6: to January December. Even in swing states. Now Trump's ahead, 293 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 6: but by less and you know the national polls. There's 294 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 6: three major national polls this week. They all have them 295 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 6: within the Cisco margin of error. They're all tied, essentially, 296 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 6: So the person who has the most to lose is 297 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 6: the incommon president who's been catching up slowly but surely 298 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 6: to Donald Trump. And sort of people are saying, well, 299 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 6: maybe Biden won't be that bad, maybe he's in better 300 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 6: shape than we think. But if he stumbles badly tonight, 301 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 6: I think that's going to bring those levels of concern 302 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 6: about his age back into the mix, and I think 303 00:15:58,800 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 6: it could cost him. 304 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 4: Wendy, what do you think about the debate parameters here 305 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 4: tonight in terms of no audience, muting the other candidates, Mike, 306 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 4: what's that all about? 307 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 6: Actually, both to my previous point, I think muting the 308 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 6: mic helps Biden more than it helps Trump because Trump's off. 309 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 7: The cup remarks. 310 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 6: Really, you know that his audience loves that. In other words, 311 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 6: you know, his base loves that. You know, most Democrats 312 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 6: cringe when Biden goes off off remarks, you know, off script. 313 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 6: So those sort of miked comments I think by Biden 314 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 6: could get him in more trouble than Trump. So this 315 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 6: is a good thing for Biden. The studio audience, I 316 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 6: think is a shame. I mean, it's America. 317 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 7: We have elections regularly. 318 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 6: Scheduled, constitutionally mandated elections, and part of that process is 319 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 6: audience input voter input. So it's unfortunate that the audience 320 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 6: won't be allowed to be in the studio with the candidate. 321 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 2: What is your guest, Professor Schiller, of the topic that 322 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 2: will cause both candidates to pause? 323 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 6: Well, I think Biden is going to really I mean, 324 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 6: the strategy has got to be make Trump lose it, 325 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:04,880 Speaker 6: you know, in a way that you know Trump can 326 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 6: lose it, but really lose it and really scare those 327 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 6: independents who have stayed away from Trump and Trump backed candidates. 328 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 6: We've even seen that this week in Republican primaries. Trump 329 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 6: candidates did not do so well in their house races. 330 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 6: So really scare people about the prospect of Donald Trump. 331 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 6: And Trump has to get Biden to stumble, stumble stumble. 332 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 6: The border border border, I think it's really going even 333 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 6: things are better at the border since the executive order 334 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 6: a couple of weeks ago, but still, you know, Trump's 335 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,640 Speaker 6: gotta get under Biden's skin and vice versa. 336 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: My guess is a complete amateur. I defer to David 337 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 2: gerge Oman thep caia lines, the wull border thing. Is 338 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 2: that going to be what's a tinder box? 339 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely, yes, Wendy, Why are we having this debate 340 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 4: so early in the campaign cycle season. 341 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 6: I think it was a moment of opportunity for each 342 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 6: candidate to before the conventions, to go into the summer 343 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 6: with some momentum. Right, as we just said, they're tied, right, 344 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 6: Biden has slow momentum catching up to Trump, but they're. 345 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 7: Tied, so this could be breakout. 346 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 6: Right, Trump seems more reasonable, let's say tonight and independence 347 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 6: come back to him. 348 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 7: Biden seems stronger, more vibrant than people thought. 349 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:14,360 Speaker 6: Then he gets some momentum swaying going before the conventions, 350 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 6: not after, and I think that is a big thing 351 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 6: for both candidates. 352 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,479 Speaker 2: And now we Segiwy for one final question with Wendy Schiller. 353 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 2: We can do this, folks, Lisa Matteo, Wendy featured a 354 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal article on the rise of Hispanic America. 355 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 2: What will be the impact of Hispanic America on November fifth. 356 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 7: Well, Lisa, that's a great thing to look at. 357 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 6: We have this conversation every four years at least for 358 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 6: the last decade, how the Latino vote Hispanic vote will 359 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 6: make the difference. Forty eight percent turnout of registered Hispanic 360 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 6: votes stays pretty much the same in the last three 361 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 6: presidential cycles. I'm not thinking that's changing much, except if Trump, 362 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 6: let's say, picks Mark or Rubio who's of Cuban descent. 363 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 7: Latinos are not monolithic. 364 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 6: Doesn't mean every Latino vote for and Rubio, but it 365 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 6: certainly is a very significant sign by the Republican Party. 366 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 6: They're going after Latino votes in a much stronger way 367 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 6: than ever before. So maybe we see a difference, but 368 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 6: we have not seen the condo of surgeon turn out 369 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 6: in the last three presidential. 370 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 5: Life sort of go yeah, Wenny, the age of the 371 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,959 Speaker 5: Hispanic population, they also skew younger. How is that going 372 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 5: to be in relation to how they react to it. 373 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 5: Are they looking for that younger voter? 374 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, Lisa, that's a really good point because, especially in 375 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 6: the last ten to fifteen years, those younger voters now 376 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 6: can vote right. So we've always had a young Dish population, 377 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 6: but now we've got younger voters, and the question is 378 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 6: things like abortion, reproductive services, Latinos tend to be more Catholic, 379 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 6: tend to be. 380 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 7: More conservative on abortion and other social issues. 381 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 6: However, younger Latinos in some segments of the Latino population 382 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 6: are strong supporters of the right to abortion. So that's 383 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 6: going to be a big issue. And that's where Biden 384 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 6: can get Trump. Can he get Trump to commit to 385 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 6: not enforcing a ban, in other words, not deny contraception. 386 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 7: Can he get them on. 387 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 6: The record, and can you go after a portion in 388 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 6: the Republicans. That's going to be a big thing for 389 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 6: even young Latino voters. 390 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller thrilled. Will being honored to have you on 391 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 2: tomorrow if we can figure out your schedule. Wendy Schiller 392 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 2: at Brown University. Her Civics textbooks are Her Civics textbooks 393 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 2: are definitive. The Lisa Matteo's show, the front page is Lisa, 394 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 2: what do you have? 395 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 5: Okay? The latest Census Bureau stats came out, so I 396 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 5: want to point out something the growing number of Hispanics. 397 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 5: This is what stood out to the Wall Street Journal. 398 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 5: They have this great breakdown of it US. Hispanic population 399 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 5: grew by one point one to six million to more 400 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 5: than sixty five million in the recently estimated year, so 401 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 5: that accounts for about seventy percent of overall population growth 402 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 5: in that period. Now, about one third of that gain 403 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,880 Speaker 5: it was due to migrants entering the US. The rest 404 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,119 Speaker 5: came from Hispanic birth's out numbering deaths. But what stands 405 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 5: out is that that growth help offset the shrinking non 406 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 5: Hispanic population, especially places like Philadelphia. Milwaukee was another one 407 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 5: sawt Lake City, Louisville, Kentucky, parts several counties in Florida, 408 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 5: and the breakdown. The biggest part of that was Mexicans 409 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 5: and then the Venezuelan population is growing the fastest. 410 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a terrific article and it really harkens 411 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 2: the changes I remember pushing twenty years ago. Somebody said 412 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 2: two thy forty five is a tip point demographically for America. 413 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 2: I think it's pulled in and you're going to hear 414 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 2: it in tonight's debate. 415 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 4: I'll tell you what about thirty years ago. I was 416 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 4: part of a group that took Univision Television public here 417 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 4: in the United States. The demographics you just mentioned were 418 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 4: the exact same demographics we talked about thirty years ago, exactly. 419 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,959 Speaker 2: Okay, it's just trends in place and it's all it's 420 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: a really really thorough article that was by the journal. 421 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 5: Was yes, by the Wall Street Journals. 422 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 4: Seventeen percent of the US population is Hispanic eighteen percent 423 00:21:58,320 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 4: something like that. 424 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it goes right to too nice to debate. 425 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 5: Next exactly most definitely, congestion pricing have to talk about. 426 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 2: They're going to talk about that. 427 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 5: They will. But now the MTA is saying, because of 428 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 5: halting it, you know, the congestion pricing plan, they're saying, 429 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 5: it's going to have to cut capital. It's capital plan 430 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 5: sixteen point five billion dollars in subway upgrades, that's what 431 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 5: they're pointing to. How that breaks down. They plan to 432 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 5: make subway stations more accessible, to write it with disabilities. 433 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 5: Now they can't do that. Repairs to infrastructure that's like 434 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 5: a century old. You have the expansion of the Second 435 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 5: Avenue subway line could be affected, and also other projects 436 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 5: as well. So they're saying, because this was paused, now 437 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 5: you have where are we going to get the money 438 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 5: to do all these things? 439 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 2: Has anybody's seen a body count of how many a 440 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 2: jobs are lost or how many jobs won't be formed 441 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 2: because of this decision? To me, it's a big number. 442 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 2: I don't know what the number is. 443 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, well yesterday we did that story with that one 444 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 5: group saying that about I was hundred thousand jobs. Yeah, yeah, 445 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 5: out of lot. 446 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 4: Knowre's where those numbers come from. I mean, yeah, if 447 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 4: you're for the MTA, they've they've got to figure out 448 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 4: a way here to a balance the budget and b 449 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 4: find some capital to continue to put up the maintenance 450 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 4: capexcept nothing else. 451 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 2: I don't know. I have no pearls of wisdom. I 452 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 2: don't know no other than folks. When you go up 453 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 2: the roads here, you know, when I leave the building, 454 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 2: like at five point thirty, you know there's those big 455 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 2: cameras that John Tucker talks about. 456 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 4: Who's span for those? 457 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 5: They're dark? 458 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 2: Yep, there's no other way to put it. Next. 459 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,880 Speaker 5: All right, we talked about Amazon the two trillion dollar 460 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 5: market valuation, right, but some new data is showing that 461 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 5: more people are watching Amazon Prime Video. Okay, this is 462 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 5: an evercore is SI study. It did it of Amazon users. 463 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 5: So Amazon's Prime video engagement eighty percent, fifty percent polled 464 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 5: said they're watching more than before. Sports is helping a 465 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 5: big thing, they said. Fifty eight percent of Prime members 466 00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 5: watch at least part of that. You know, they had 467 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 5: the NFL Thursday Night Football, But they said why it's 468 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,919 Speaker 5: important is because it's helping keep people paying the one 469 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,399 Speaker 5: hundred and thirty nine dollars a year for Amazon Prime. 470 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 2: Is that how much Amazon price it is? 471 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 1: It is? 472 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 2: It asked me, I would have said ninety nine dollars. 473 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,959 Speaker 5: No, it's like forty higher than that. It's crazy. And 474 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 5: so because they get the people who want the Prime, 475 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 5: they get more people to to buy on Amazon because 476 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 5: they're getting competition from places like Timu and and all 477 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 5: that other kind of stuff. But it also shows that 478 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 5: Amazon has this big opportunity which Paul was talking about 479 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 5: in advertising. So it shows the potentially. 480 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 2: This brilliant yesterday for folks. One of the reasons to 481 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 2: be part of Bloomberg Podcasts is you get to see 482 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 2: everything on Bloomberg Radio, including extensive comments from mister Weezer 483 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 2: about this. My amateur take is Prime Video's got a 484 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 2: new spirit, It's got a new energy because they're not 485 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: apologizing about ads. They show ads all the rest are 486 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: tiptowing around, as Brian alluded to it. 487 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 5: And they have the original movies. I mean, they have 488 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 5: a lot of movies that I watched just for Amazon. 489 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 5: I mean, after I watch it, I'm like, why did 490 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 5: I watch that? But they do offer the original and 491 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 5: they really. 492 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 4: Sad and quite frankly, if they ever really wanted to 493 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 4: get into this market, I either the entertainment market, they 494 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,959 Speaker 4: could get in a huge way. I mean, I think 495 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 4: Amazon Prime is good, it's fine, and you know, it's 496 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,239 Speaker 4: a great it's a good streaming church. But if they 497 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 4: ever wanted to really get into it, they could. 498 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 5: Next all right, we're talking about pebbling and if you 499 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,880 Speaker 5: do this with your children, it's a new trend if 500 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,640 Speaker 5: you think about it. This was in Parents magazine. 501 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 4: It's great because pebbling is used to do what is pebbling. 502 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 5: Pebbling is kind of used to describe a courding, like 503 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 5: in a relationship, when you're kind of courting someone. It 504 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 5: came actually from penguins and edit article, because they present 505 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 5: rocks to each other when they want to court one another. 506 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 5: This is the origin of it. But now parents are 507 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,160 Speaker 5: doing it with their kids. They're courting them with communication. 508 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,880 Speaker 5: So how they're doing it. If you're having a tough 509 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 5: time talking with your kids, they're texting them funny memes 510 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 5: like they're sending them a link to a song that 511 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 5: reminds me. 512 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 7: Call those dad jokes. 513 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 5: You can send them dad jokes. Okay, you can put 514 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 5: up little post it notes on the mirror your conspiration. 515 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 5: Here's the reason. 516 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 2: Do you do this at the matos? Can you see her? 517 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 2: Can you see her Saturday morning on the way to Costco. 518 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 2: She's in the kitchen screaming in the west wing. If 519 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 2: you don't empty the dishwasher, kill you. 520 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 5: They get those text messages too, Yes, please empty the dishwasher. 521 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 5: But it's also about sending you know, like if they 522 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 5: have a game, you know, like good luck, you're gonna 523 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 5: do great. Love you like sending those positive little things 524 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 5: to your kids because it actually experts say it sends 525 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 5: off this little signal to your brain releases dopamines. Okay, 526 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 5: so there's some some signs. 527 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 2: This new contract. We have to do this garbage? Is 528 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 2: that what the sensit of? Lisa? 529 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 4: I love it because tough Lisa. No junk food in 530 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 4: my household. 531 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 7: That's the like, that's. 532 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 5: The one too. But nowadays parents have a tough time 533 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 5: talking to their kids so because of technology, So this 534 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 5: is one way for them to kind of break the 535 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 5: ice so that you become cool again. 536 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 2: Maybe do you put post it notes on their mirrors? 537 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 5: I did like twice. 538 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 2: Maybe can I just say I can't get to afterthoughts 539 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 2: mirrors because there's so much Sephora investment. That is true, 540 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 2: that is true. Do we get this five days a 541 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 2: week from you? Yes? 542 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 5: You are have the pleasure of getting this. 543 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 4: Is sponsored coming on, I'm going to get this sponsored. 544 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 1: This I'm telling you. 545 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 5: I bet people are talking on the chat about pebbling 546 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 5: if they do it with their kids. 547 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 4: I'm telling you it's going to be a thing. 548 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 2: I guess. Lisa Matello, thank you so much for the newspapers. 549 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 550 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 551 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 552 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 553 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 554 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 555 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, 556 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.