1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,079 Speaker 1: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining to just go 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: show off to the basket under the basket, it's the 5 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: truth for the wind, God make a miracle. 6 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 3: Up the water. 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: Hit that one from. 8 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: The parking lot. 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: March madness is here and you can never have too 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: much action. So if you've already filled out your brackets, 11 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 1: you hopped on the best numbers and you locked in 12 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: those Cinderella parlays, all that's left to do is target 13 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: those NCAA tournament player props on my Calvary's. I'm joined 14 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: by Eric Binfor and we're here to serve up six 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: of these player props in the round of sixty four. 16 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: And as a reminder, we know these markets can be 17 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: a little tricky to find, so we're gonna go ahead 18 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: and drop those quick slip links into the YouTube chat. 19 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: They will immediately populate the props into your bet slip 20 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: on your phone. But first March is the best month 21 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: of the year, not just for but also forgetting the 22 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: best deal on Action Pro. You can get Action Pro 23 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: for just over five dollars a month for the entire 24 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: year and for the NCAA tournament. 25 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 2: You'll get Sean. 26 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: Kerner's bracket simulations, Nick Giffen's player prop projections and pick 27 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: alerts thirty minutes before everyone else. Very important for player 28 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: props this time of year, So go to actionnetwork dot 29 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: com backslast March now to get on board. 30 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: Eric, Welcome to the show, brother. 31 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: This is the best time of year, and this is 32 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: also when everyone's filled with optimism. We want to take overs, 33 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: we want to take those superstars to dominate. But what 34 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: I noticed when I looked at our six player props, 35 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: we avoided the one in two seeds. Maybe we'll save 36 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: them for down the road. But philosophically is that where 37 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: you land right out of the gate in these blowouts. 38 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: You don't want to see a guy get ninety five 39 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: percent to a rebound and assist a point total and 40 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: then hit the bench and not come back for the 41 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: rest of the game. 42 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, the stability in the projection and the playing time. 43 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 2: Generally we might get efficiency or lack thereof on the 44 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: other side in the sixteen to fifteen, but efficiency can 45 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: only take you so far. If you're not playing the 46 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: final ten twelve, you know, we just don't know. There's 47 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 2: so much variance. We got a lot of games to 48 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 2: pick from, we got a lot of player props out 49 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: there to pick from. I just don't feel the need 50 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 2: to kind of wade into those waters. And even on again, 51 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 2: like the sixteen seed side of things, the efficiency is 52 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,399 Speaker 2: going to be really bad. It's really tempting to take 53 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 2: those those unders. But those guys, the ray Sean Taylor's 54 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 2: on Siue of the world might play forty minutes and 55 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: backdoor their way taking twenty two to twenty three shots 56 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 2: against the walk Ons and the you know, the third 57 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: stringers in the final minutes. And so I just want 58 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 2: to stay away from some of that variants and latch 59 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: onto some of these spots that are really really good 60 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 2: that we can hone in on. 61 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: Now I just said, we're kind of avoiding those top seeds, 62 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: those all Americans, just kidding. You're going with Braden Smith 63 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: right out of the gate, arguably the best point guard 64 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: in the entire country. And in terms of him playing 65 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: forty minutes in this game, how does the produce ola 66 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: defense at the rim? Everybody scores inside the two point arc, 67 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: does that keep high point in it for forty minutes? 68 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: And if so, does Braden Smith have a monster performance 69 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: in your opinion. 70 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 2: I think so. I know this is a player prop show. 71 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 2: I'm also on the over game, so I think that 72 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 2: kind of lends into some of the Braiden Smith action. 73 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 2: But this matchup is about as pristine as you can 74 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 2: get in my opinion, for you know, facilitating point guards, 75 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: scoring point guards, but specifically one of Braiden Smith's skill set. 76 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 2: He leads the entire country in assist straight over forty 77 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 2: four percent. You mentioned the forty minutes He's going to 78 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 2: play every minute. He's been playing every minute of essentially 79 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 2: every game down the stretch aside from foul trouble, and 80 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 2: he certainly we would expect him to do that in 81 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: the tournament. High Point is a bad defense. So you combine, 82 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 2: you know, the best facilitating point guard in the entire 83 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 2: country and all American, as you said, with a two 84 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty sixth ranked defense, who I could actually 85 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: see this game get up and down a little bit 86 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 2: more than maybe we would expect from both both of 87 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: these teams because the offensive efficiency I think is going 88 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 2: to be there on both sides. High Point plays a 89 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: deep deep drop coverage, like very very deep drop coverage 90 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: with Justlin Bodo Bodo, and that's where Braiden Smith lives. 91 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: I think he's going to score efficiently too in the 92 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: mid range. But I think if you watch, he's the 93 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 2: king of the pocket pass and the no look bounce pass, 94 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 2: and I think we're going to see tons and tons 95 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: of those if they ever do start to collapse, He's 96 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 2: going to kick out to shooters. I think that this 97 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 2: number is just way way too low. Seven actually opened 98 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: at seven and a half, but we can get up 99 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 2: to plus one twenty on eight and a half for 100 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 2: Braden Smith, and I love that number. 101 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: I'm going to try to counterbalance some of these overs 102 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 1: with at least one under here. I like Graham e 103 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 1: k under sixteen and a half points against the Georgia Bulldogs, 104 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: and really Georgia their strength is on the interior. We 105 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: just talked about two teams that do different things at 106 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 1: the rim high point with that deep drop and pretty 107 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: essentially being non existent on the low of block. But 108 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: Georgia is thirteenth in points per possession allowed when defending 109 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: the post. Where does Graham ek eat on the post? 110 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: So the fact that it's a strength on strength matchup there, 111 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: I think neutralizes him. No one scores more points in 112 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: this field from post up opportunities than Ek. And then additionally, 113 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: it's all about availability. With Braden Smith being on the 114 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: floor for forty minutes, that's great. Grahamy Kay on the 115 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: other side of things, he is a foul machine. As 116 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: of late, three of his past four games, he's racked 117 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: up four fouls. I could see him playing in the 118 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: low twenties in terms of minutes if he gets in 119 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 1: foul trouble in the first half. And then Asian Newle 120 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: has done an incredible job of drawing fouls. If you 121 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: look at their game against Florida, they had three bigs 122 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: that they were throwing at him in that game, racked 123 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: up twelve personal fouls across those three bigs and essentially 124 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: had this revolving door of guys going to the bench 125 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: coming back in. If Ek plays sub twenty five minutes, 126 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: I think this is a phenomenal play. It's my favorite 127 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: under in the round of sixty four. I think there's 128 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: different ways for the Zags to win this game, and 129 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: namely they're going to have to do it on the 130 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: perimeter and use spacing. Ek somebody who can absolutely dominate 131 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: WCC competition when he's the biggest, strongest guy in the floor, 132 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: that is just not the case. Beyond Nule, they have 133 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: other bodies that can throw at him athletically, be able 134 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: to swarm him and at least get the ball out 135 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: of his hand. So sixteen and a half I think 136 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: is a number that's too rich. What's your thought on 137 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: ek in a matchup where people are looking ahead, kind 138 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: of putting the Zags into the round of thirty two, 139 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: I think that could be a mistake, no pun intended. 140 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 2: I think this will be a dogfight. Totally with you. 141 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: I actually picked Georgia in this spot. I'm a little 142 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: weary of the analytical ranking of Gonzaga. Clearly a great team, 143 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: undoubtedly underseated where they're at, but I'm a little bit 144 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: weary of just exactly how good is this Gonzaga team. 145 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 2: And then you combine it with the strength versus strength 146 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 2: matchup here, like you said, of an SEC team who 147 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 2: is battle tested, right, the strength that they have with 148 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: post defense. They've dealt with Broom, and they've dealt with 149 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: the Florida Boys, and they've dealt with a lot of 150 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: really talented big They're not going to be you know, 151 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: overly concerned any more so than a normal SEC game 152 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 2: with Ek and Hoff and the big boys up front 153 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 2: for Gonzaga, and I struggle to see how Gonzaga scores 154 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 2: efficiently here. Maybe it's an undergame as well, but I 155 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 2: really like the Georgia side specifically because of all the 156 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 2: things that you just pointed out with that Ek matchup. 157 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 1: This time of year, it's kyp time know your personnel. 158 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: There's players who are out keish on Gilbert for Iowa State, 159 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: done for the tournament. That's a huge blow to the Cyclones. 160 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: And then you have other players coming back into the 161 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: fold after missing multiple games due to injury. And that's 162 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: the exact situation we had with rain Smith and Louisville. 163 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: Talk to me about what you like on his points. 164 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so rain Smith looks ut to return after about 165 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 2: two weeks. The last game he played was on March fifth, 166 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 2: but he only played six minutes, so we're really getting 167 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 2: to March first, the last time rain Smith has played. 168 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 2: Really fun player. It's unfortunate. No one wants to bet 169 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 2: a rain Smith under I'll tell you that much, But 170 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 2: I don't even really know exactly how to project his 171 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 2: minutes is he going to start, is he going to play? 172 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 2: You know, he was a thirty ish minute a game guy. 173 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 2: His big production over the course of the season came 174 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: often when Chucky Hepperns missed some time, so he kind 175 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: of boosted up, you know, his rates a little bit 176 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 2: in some situations that are not what we're going to 177 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 2: see here. So I don't know exactly what the minute 178 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: floor or even the minute ceiling necessarily is here for 179 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: rain which already puts, you know, some chaos and some 180 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 2: instability into this number. Eleven and a half points is 181 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 2: not nothing, you know, this isn't just a typical kind 182 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 2: of low usage player number that we're getting here in 183 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: a pretty tough spot. He's really just a three point shooter. 184 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: If everybody remembers Jack Golkie of last year, Rain Smith 185 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 2: isn't Jack Golkie, but it's not that far off. He 186 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 2: took two hundred and seventy seven three pointers this season 187 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 2: compared to thirty five two pointers. He also doesn't get 188 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 2: to the free throw line. It's all three pointers. So 189 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 2: you're either you're gonna get four three pointers and he 190 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 2: goes over this number, or he's gonna hit three or 191 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: less and he's gonna go under this number. The problem 192 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 2: for him in this spot is they play Creighton, and 193 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: similar to how Brayden Smith can feast in that deep 194 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: drop coverage that high point offers, it's gonna be very 195 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 2: difficult for range Smith to even get shots off against 196 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: this Creighton drop coverage. The perk of the drop for 197 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,719 Speaker 2: anybody that's you know, the nerd basketball part is you can, 198 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: you know, defend the rim with your big center Ryan 199 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 2: Cockbenner being probably the best in the country at it. 200 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 2: You're kind of dropping back off of ball screens, so 201 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: you can stay on shooters, run them off the three 202 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: point line, don't give up open three point shots, especially 203 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 2: catch and shoot where rain Smith thrives. I don't even 204 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 2: know how many three pointers he's gonna get off in 205 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 2: this game, and he doesn't take two pointers. Combine that 206 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 2: with I don't know how many minutes he's gonna play. 207 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of risk Rainsmith here at 208 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 2: not a super low number in his first game back. 209 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 2: Give me under eleven and a half. I'm going to. 210 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: Piggyback off your Braden Smith play from earlier. I'm going 211 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: to go over thirty one and a half. When you 212 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: can bind his points, assists, and rebounds, and when you 213 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: look at his performance recently, you may say this number 214 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: seems a little bit inflated, but you have to consider 215 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 1: the defensive difference between what he was facing in the 216 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 1: Big ten and high point. You hit on all the 217 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: big points in terms of their drop defense, the fact 218 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: that they're two hundred and twenty six in Ken Pump's 219 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: defensive efficiency. But I essentially see this as a game script, 220 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: game flow kind of situation. When Purdue has hit eighty 221 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: five points this season, they've done that eight times. Smith's 222 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: average of points, assists, in rebounds has been thirty four 223 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: and a half, and having the opportunity to move around 224 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,199 Speaker 1: those picks and get into the mid range, he averages 225 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: seven points per game off the dribble on jumpers. That's 226 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: the highest figure in this entire field of sixty eight. 227 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: So if there was ever a matchup tailor made for 228 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: a player. 229 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 2: This is it. 230 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: He could go for twenty five points, he could have 231 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: twelve to fifteen assists, and he's also someone who chips 232 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: in on the glass. He's not someone who's just sitting 233 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: on the perimeter. So you get four five additional value 234 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: points to this total as well. I just view it 235 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: as TKR is going to be rolling in have easy looks. 236 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: This number is going to be like a slot machine. 237 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: I could see it finishing north of thirty five. So 238 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: thirty one and a half as long as you don't 239 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: have to pay that prohibitive juice, I think that's the 240 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: way to go ahead and play Braden Smith in this 241 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: first round matchup against Hide Point. 242 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 4: Head Coorse Shots and Mad Scott spuzz A, Betaza. 243 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 2: Bush and so us far. 244 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 3: Keep Cheeving disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores. 245 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 1: Now, as we mentioned, March is the best time of 246 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: the year and not just for sports, but also forgetting 247 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: the best deal on Action Pro. You can get Action 248 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: Pro for just over five dollars a month for the 249 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: entire year. After the NCAA tournament, you'll get Sean Kerner's 250 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: bracket simulations, Nick Giffin's player props, and if you care, 251 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: my picks thirty minutes before they go out before anybody else. 252 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: Go to actionework dot com backslast March now to get 253 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: on board. 254 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 2: All right, let's close this out. 255 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: We've had some you know, reasonable totals going over We've 256 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: played some unders. It's time to get a little bit crazy. 257 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: Talk to me about this matchup between Yale and A 258 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: and M. Everyone's sprinting to the window to go with 259 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: the Bulldogs after they upset another SEC team in Auburn 260 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: last year. Do you think they do the same and 261 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: if so, is there an angle in terms of A 262 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: and M having to play catchup in this game? 263 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 2: While I do like Yale in this in this matchup, 264 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 2: especially against the number, it's it's a crazy spot for 265 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: Wade Taylor volume three point shooting. And now that's part 266 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: of why you might like Yale in this spot. Texas 267 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 2: A and M not a great three point shooting team. 268 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 2: Frankly a very bad three point shooting team. Yale is 269 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 2: going to pack it in. They are going to force 270 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 2: A and M to shoot as many three pointers and 271 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: try to protect the offensive glass because that's how you 272 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 2: beat A and M. On the season, Yale's defense has 273 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 2: allowed the fifth highest from a per shot perspective three 274 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 2: pointers in the entire country. Wade Taylor is not gonna 275 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 2: be shy about putting up three pointers over the last 276 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 2: three tournament games. Specifically so last year they won, they 277 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 2: played two games the year before they played one game. 278 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: He took thirty three three pointers in the tournament. He 279 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 2: can go full hero ball, and if Yale is competing 280 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: in this game, I think we get a stark number 281 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 2: of three pointers from Wade Taylor. That can be a 282 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 2: miserable sweat, or you can have a game like last 283 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: season he went seven for ten against Nebraska in a 284 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 2: somewhat similar matchup where Nebraska was giving up a high 285 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 2: volume of three pointers. You're gonna get a ton of 286 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 2: attempts here. So at plus one seventy two to get 287 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 2: to the number four in a game that I think 288 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:51,719 Speaker 2: is going to go down to the wire, ball is 289 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 2: gonna be in Wade Taylor's hands. He's gonna take a 290 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 2: lot of those key shots. You're gonna have every opportunity 291 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 2: to hit four or five six threes here. Will he 292 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 2: do it? You know, that's a very streaky thing, But 293 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 2: at this number, I'm willing to take that shot on 294 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 2: a pretty juicy payout. 295 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: If you're listening and you're interested in a plus one 296 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: seventy two payout, could I interest you in plus six 297 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: point fifty? PJ. Haggerty, the go to scorer for the 298 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: Memphis Tigers, to score thirty plus in their matchup with 299 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: Colorado State plus six fifty. That's just an incredible number. 300 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: And I'm going to get into why right off the bat. 301 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: Haggard is a third leading scorer in the entire country 302 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: and the top scorer in this field. But his backcourt 303 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: mate Tyres Hunter is out, which means even more of 304 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: the scoring load is going to fall on his shoulders. 305 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: In the last game without Hunter there, he fired up 306 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: twenty two shots, which was seven and a half shots 307 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: more than his season average. He was already a go 308 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: to guy, but now, as you just said it, he's 309 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: got to play hero ball. 310 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: Now. 311 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: If this game is played at Memphis preferred tempo, which 312 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: is twenty seventh in the nation, this is going to 313 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: be a very high scoring game. I think there's a 314 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: better than twenty five percent chance that Haggardy gets to 315 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: this number. Now, if Colorado State imposes a slower game 316 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: they play in the two fifties in terms of tempo, 317 00:13:58,200 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: then I think it's going to be difficult for him 318 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: to get north twenty shots. But that's why the payout 319 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: is so lucrative. On a play like this, it can 320 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: be binary in terms of overall possessions and shot volume. 321 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: But if we get there, I love my chances here 322 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 1: because Colorado State has been running so lucky on the 323 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: defensive end from three point range opponents during their ten 324 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 1: game winning streak, shooting twenty seven percent from long range. 325 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: That is not because they are playing a particular strategy 326 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: where they're closing out on every shooter. People are just 327 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: missing open threes, and I think Haggardy certainly has a 328 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: chance to make at least two or three triples in 329 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: this game. And if he does as a thirty eight 330 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: percent career shooter or I should say this year firing 331 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: in thirty eight percent, then all of a sudden, the 332 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: mats starts to work because what does he do better 333 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: than just about anybody in this field get to the 334 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: foul line. He averages eight foul shot attempts per game, 335 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: And if he gets any of the Colorado State players 336 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: in foul trouble and they're playing catch up, then everything 337 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: starts working narratively for me. So when I saw this, 338 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: my eyes lit up. I wanted to hop on PJ. Haggerty. 339 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: I know that Penny sometimes is a polarizing coach. What 340 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: are your thoughts on the Tigers who've been thrown around 341 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: in that overseeded conversation. Do you think they can get 342 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: through the trendy twelve five upset in the first round? 343 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 2: This might be the game I'm most torn on in 344 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 2: the first round. There's a lot of polarizing matchups, you know, 345 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 2: the trendy underdogs, the UC San Diego's of the world, 346 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 2: the Drakes. This game specifically because of Tyree Hunter being out. 347 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 2: If Tyre's Hunter were playing, I think I would kind 348 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: of like Bang's gavel and roll with the Tigers, but 349 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 2: I think he's a big deal. With Nee Clifford on 350 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 2: the other side, Haggardy not the defender. They don't really 351 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 2: bring a defender off the bench that can kind of 352 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: fill that Tyreek Hunter role. He's also kind of the 353 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: adult in the room at times, which is a little 354 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 2: bit required for Memphis. But I do think the Penny 355 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 2: kind of stigma is something of the past. I'm not 356 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 2: particularly worried about, you know, some of Penny's failures in 357 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 2: the past. I actually think PJ. Haggerty, to your point, 358 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 2: is one of those key reasons. If you remember the 359 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 2: Kendrick Davis Memphis teams, those were kind of some of 360 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 2: Penny's best teams. Actually, that Kendrick Davis team lost famously 361 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: lost on kind of a tough situation at the end 362 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 2: to Fau who then went on to run to the 363 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 2: Final four. I think that was Penny's best team, and 364 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 2: this is probably his second best team. So I love 365 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 2: the Haggardy call, and I think Memphis is in a 366 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: better spot than maybe it appears, especially when you combine 367 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 2: that with Mountain West seemingly having some difficulty in the tournament, 368 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: as we saw yet again last night with San Diego 369 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 2: State getting blown out by North Carolina. 370 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: Before we get you out of here, Eric, one question 371 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: in terms of overall strategy, I see that all three 372 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: of your picks are on guards. Do you tend to 373 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: stay away from biggs because of the fact college basketball 374 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: it's just five fouls, you pick up two in the 375 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: first half, it can really eat into your minutes. Do 376 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: you have to be in love with the number for 377 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: a big to play it over I would say I 378 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: have to be more in love with the number to 379 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: play a big in the player prop plan or have 380 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: you know? 381 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 2: Kalkbrenner, as an example, does not foul. We have a 382 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: very very long track record of him not fouling, and 383 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 2: if he does, he's probably still going to have to 384 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 2: play through it. Right, McDermott can't put Kalkbrenner on the 385 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: bench for an extended period. Obviously they are not in 386 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: the tournament. They did play in the NIT last night. 387 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 2: Maxim Renault from Stanford is the same way. Like two 388 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: fouls per forty minutes for US seven foot er is 389 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 2: kind of crazy. There are certain instances like that, but 390 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 2: you're also going to get into the Memphis team. Dane 391 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 2: Dangel love him, absolute superstar. I think he's going to 392 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 2: have a great game, but the foul risk is definitely 393 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 2: there with the player like that. So I want to 394 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 2: find a really good number on those guys or maybe 395 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 2: get into a like a really high efficiency type player. 396 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 2: A guy I like this this weekend is Arizona's Henry Vasar, 397 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 2: So I think he's a really efficient player. I may 398 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 2: not need thirty five minutes, right, his projection isn't necessarily 399 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: thirty five minutes he comes up the bench. He's just 400 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 2: a really high efficiency player in a great matchup. Those 401 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 2: I may lean into, But the big numbers on the 402 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 2: really really high profile, big guys, I'm going to be 403 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: very cautious on those. 404 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: If we've peaked your interests with this NCAA tournament player 405 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: prop appetizer, the main course is right around the corner 406 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: Doctor Nick Sean. That's Nick Giffin Sean Kerner coming up 407 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: at five point thirty giving you all of their picks 408 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: as well for the round A sixty four, so be 409 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 1: sure to stick. 410 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 2: In for that. 411 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: For Eric bin four, I'm Mike Caliberys. Thank you so 412 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: much for listening. Please comments, look into the chat. You're 413 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: gonna be able to see those quick slips to be 414 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: able to tail these plays for the round. 415 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 4: Sixty four head course shots and mascot suzz A Beta. 416 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 3: Saco Bosha that shut us, keep jeering. Disappearing freshman with 417 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 3: a hot hand shoots. 418 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 4: And scores that Sla marches stup you part Oh no 419 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 4: no Mac, got little madness in my eye, Let me 420 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:54,479 Speaker 4: out my moment jump. SR Action Network reminds you please 421 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 4: gamble responsibly. 422 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 423 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 424 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 1: Gambler