WEBVTT - Trump Tariffs Roil Markets, Treasury's Bessent Issues Warning on Retaliation

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump's announcement on US tariffs is sending shockwaves through

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<v Speaker 2>global markets at this hour. Earlier, the President established a

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<v Speaker 2>minimum baseline tariff of ten percent now that will go

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<v Speaker 2>into effect at midnight on Saturday, and it will affect

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<v Speaker 2>roughly sixty nations with the largest trade imbalances with the US.

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<v Speaker 2>And the President also announced reciprocal tariffs at rates roughly

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<v Speaker 2>fifty percent below what foreign countries place on US imports,

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<v Speaker 2>and those reciprocal tariffs will go into effect April ninth

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<v Speaker 2>at twelve oh one am. For a closer look, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>joined now by Sean Donnan, senior economics reporter for Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 2>Sewn is on the line from Washington.

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<v Speaker 3>D C.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for making time for us. Sean, Let's begin

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<v Speaker 2>with this baseline tariff of ten percent. It'll happen on

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<v Speaker 2>all US imports. It goes into effect at midnight on Saturday.

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<v Speaker 2>Was that at all surprising?

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<v Speaker 4>Look? I think what was surprising overall about what we've

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<v Speaker 4>seen today is just the scale of these tariffs. Overall.

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<v Speaker 4>We will get that ten percent baseline tariff that goes

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<v Speaker 4>into effect on Saturday, and then a few days later,

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<v Speaker 4>on April ninth, we will get a second set of tariffs,

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<v Speaker 4>and these are what the President is calling reciprocal tariffs

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<v Speaker 4>that will apply to major trading partners like China, the

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<v Speaker 4>European Union, South Korea, Japan, all of those at much

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<v Speaker 4>higher rates than that ten percent.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you look at why this was much worse

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<v Speaker 2>than feared, is that because there were simply no exemptions.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's that's it. There have been some exemptions.

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<v Speaker 4>Canada and Mexico seem to be exempted for the time being,

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<v Speaker 4>but that's only because they are facing their own twenty

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<v Speaker 4>five percent tariffs that were announced already by the President

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<v Speaker 4>a few weeks ago. And we're seeing some exemptions from

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<v Speaker 4>further tariffs from other sectors of the economy, like still

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<v Speaker 4>in aluminum that are the subject of separate tariffs again,

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<v Speaker 4>but we're not seeing anyone escape this new tariff wall

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<v Speaker 4>that the President is putting up around the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned a moment ago that these reciprocal tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>do not take effect until April ninth. What's the likelihood

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<v Speaker 2>in your view that there will be some type of

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<v Speaker 2>last minute negotiation that may ameliorate the threat, the final

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<v Speaker 2>threat of tariffs.

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<v Speaker 4>It's very hard to say. All we do know that

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<v Speaker 4>people at the White House were saying they were fielding

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of calls from a lot of countries looking

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<v Speaker 4>to get out of these tariffs. We expect that there

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<v Speaker 4>will be a lot of conversations going on, but the

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<v Speaker 4>President seems pretty clear that he wants to put these

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs in place and then start talking. And the question

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<v Speaker 4>is then how long do they stay in effect? And

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of people are already expecting these tariffs to

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<v Speaker 4>be in place for a long time. I think, look,

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<v Speaker 4>the bottom line here today is, and this is what

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump said he was setting out to do, is

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<v Speaker 4>he is ripping up global trade rules. He's changing the

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<v Speaker 4>global economic order, and he's imposing his will and his

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs on imports from everywhere right now. Yes, there will

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<v Speaker 4>be a lot of talks in the future, but whether

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<v Speaker 4>those tariffs go away anytime soon seems unlikely. The other

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<v Speaker 4>thing that we should mention is, you know, in the

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<v Speaker 4>lead up to this announcement, one of the things we

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<v Speaker 4>heard a lot from CEOs and investors was they wanted

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<v Speaker 4>an end to the uncertainty over trade policy and tariffs

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<v Speaker 4>coming out of Washington. I think a lot of people

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<v Speaker 4>tonight are thinking that this is only going to extend

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<v Speaker 4>the uncertain.

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<v Speaker 2>In the case of China, Treasury Secretary Besant was saying

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<v Speaker 2>earlier he that China will now see a fifty four

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<v Speaker 2>percent tariff, the thirty four percent announced today on top

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<v Speaker 2>of the existing twenty percent levy. That seems pretty dramatic.

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<v Speaker 2>Very quickly, last question before I let you go, the

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<v Speaker 2>probability of recession? Does it not seem a lot higher now?

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<v Speaker 4>I think if you read the notes coming out of economists,

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<v Speaker 4>and if you talk to economists tonight, all of them

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<v Speaker 4>will tell you that the odds not just of a

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<v Speaker 4>US recession, but of recessions and other parts of the

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<v Speaker 4>world have gone up significantly just in the last couple

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<v Speaker 4>of hours.

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<v Speaker 2>That is Sean Donnan, senior economics reporter for Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 2>For more on Wednesday's tariff announcement, we heard from Treasury

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Scott Bessant. He spoke with Bloomberg's and Marie hor

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<v Speaker 2>Dern outside the White House.

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<v Speaker 5>We're going to have the baseline terriffs come into effect first.

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<v Speaker 5>Then they're reciprocal tariffs, a little bit more of a

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<v Speaker 5>different rate for each individual trading partner. Are you preparing

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<v Speaker 5>to negotiate with some of these trading partners before that

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<v Speaker 5>tariff frey comes into effect on April nine?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there's been a lot of discussions, but

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<v Speaker 3>I think we're just going to have to wait and

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<v Speaker 3>see what would happen. What I would say and Marie,

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<v Speaker 3>I would advise none of the countries to panic. I

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<v Speaker 3>wouldn't try to retaliate, because as long as you don't retaliate,

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<v Speaker 3>this is the high end of the number, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think the market could have certainty that this is the

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<v Speaker 3>number barring retaliation. So we've got a ceiling, and then

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<v Speaker 3>we can see if there's a different floor.

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<v Speaker 5>So you sound like you're ready for a negotiation. A

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<v Speaker 5>number of these partners. Has the European Union, has China?

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<v Speaker 5>Has India? Have these countries reached out?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they've all reached out, but it's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>up to President Trump to see what he wants to do.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the mindset might be to let things settle

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<v Speaker 3>for a while. Their terrifts or non tariff barriers have

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<v Speaker 3>been on a long time, So we'll see where it

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<v Speaker 3>goes from here.

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<v Speaker 5>When it comes to China, they have a much higher

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<v Speaker 5>rate on this list. On top of that, there's still

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<v Speaker 5>that twenty percent fentanyl tariff rate. Is all of this

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<v Speaker 5>coming together to be more than a fifty percent tariff

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<v Speaker 5>rate for Beijing?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yes, I think it is, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>a combination of things. And you know again that I

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<v Speaker 3>think China said today that solving the fentanyl crisis depends

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<v Speaker 3>on taking off the fent mayl tariffs, and I'm pretty

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<v Speaker 3>sure that's not the way the sequencing's.

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<v Speaker 4>Going to work.

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<v Speaker 3>They're exporting the precursor chemicals and every every day, every week,

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<v Speaker 3>every month, Americans are dying and it's going to have

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<v Speaker 3>to stop.

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<v Speaker 5>When it comes to places like China, the President has

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<v Speaker 5>mentioned he's willing to even look at things like TikTok

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<v Speaker 5>to potentially do a negotiation. Then when it comes to tariffs,

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<v Speaker 5>I'm sure you're looking at things like the yu Wan.

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<v Speaker 5>What's on the table when it comes to this trade

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<v Speaker 5>realignment between Beijing and Washington.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we have, we haven't started anything yet. We've been

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<v Speaker 3>busy with the with the tariffs, I've been busy. As

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<v Speaker 3>we talked about earlier, the tax bills going very well.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that we will move toward the bilateral

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<v Speaker 3>relationship with China now that we've done the multilateral tariffs.

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<v Speaker 5>Plans for conversations or a trip to Beijing. Nothing eminent

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<v Speaker 5>when it comes to this negotiation. April ninth, these tariffs

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<v Speaker 5>come in place. Do you plan on having negotiations before

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<v Speaker 5>that date?

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<v Speaker 3>Again, I'm not part of the negotiation, so we'll see.

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<v Speaker 3>I am sure that they're going to be a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of calls. I just don't know if they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>be negotiations.

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<v Speaker 5>The President had this huge chart showing all of the

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<v Speaker 5>different rates. Canada and Mexico notably missing on that chart.

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<v Speaker 4>Why is that?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure.

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<v Speaker 5>Sure, Okay, I imagine that it has to do potentially because

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<v Speaker 5>they're ready in negotiations previously with the twenty five percent.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not sure if you saw the initial market reaction,

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<v Speaker 5>I haven't, so. Equity futures slid on the news. You

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<v Speaker 5>had talked about how we're in a detox period. Do

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<v Speaker 5>you feel that we're still in that period or are

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<v Speaker 5>you starting to get a little bit concerned.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the detox period has nothing to do with the terrorists.

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<v Speaker 3>The detox period is off this incredible level of government

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<v Speaker 3>sp that We've had an unsustainable amount of fiscal stimulus

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<v Speaker 3>and looks that's got to stop. That's got to stop. So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>can we continue weaning ourselves off of that? And as

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<v Speaker 3>we see private or public sector borrowing go down, private

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<v Speaker 3>sector borrowing go up, public sector jobs come down, private

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<v Speaker 3>sector jobs go up? Is it going to be perfectly symmetrical? Note,

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<v Speaker 3>but we did see an increase of ten thousand manufacturing

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<v Speaker 3>jobs last.

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<v Speaker 5>Month, So it doesn't concern you today that during the

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<v Speaker 5>tariff announcement, equity futures sold off when initially they were

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<v Speaker 5>rallying when the President only announced a ten percent tariff base,

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<v Speaker 5>and then they fell when he announced the higher rates

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<v Speaker 5>for things like the European Union in China.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and Marie, I've learned not to look what goes

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<v Speaker 3>on in after hours markets.

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<v Speaker 5>Okay, but since the peaks in February, stocks are down

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<v Speaker 5>eight percent. I think the Nasdaq from it's high most

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<v Speaker 5>recently is down twelve percent. Though these kind of this

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<v Speaker 5>kind of market downdraft so far this year is not

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<v Speaker 5>concerning you, well, look.

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<v Speaker 3>In my old business, I was very concerned about market movements,

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<v Speaker 3>and I'm trying to be Secretary of Treasury, not a

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<v Speaker 3>market commentator. What I would point out is that especially

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<v Speaker 3>the nas nasdeck peaked on Deep Seat Day. That so

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<v Speaker 3>that's a mag seven problem, not a MAGA problem.

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<v Speaker 5>Okay, so let's talk about what else you've been spending

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of your time doing. You have been up

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<v Speaker 5>on Capitol Hill constantly. You are really working on trying

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<v Speaker 5>to make sure that this administration can extend the Tax

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<v Speaker 5>Cuts and Jobs Act on top of that more tax cuts.

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<v Speaker 5>Right now, how are the conversations going in Congress?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I actually think the most underreported story in Washington,

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<v Speaker 3>not by Bloomberg of course, is the incredible union enemy

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<v Speaker 3>unity amongst Republicans. And I think it's President Trump's leadership.

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<v Speaker 3>But Mike Johnson, with a very narrow margin, issued the

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<v Speaker 3>reconciliation instructions and then he also passed a clean continuing resolution.

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<v Speaker 3>On the Senate side, they are very attentive, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think they may have something done by this Saturday.

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<v Speaker 2>That is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, speaking earlier with Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>and Marie hor Dern bringing it to you here on

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<v Speaker 2>the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Doug Chrisner. As we continue looking at the fallout

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<v Speaker 2>from the announcement on those US tariffs. We heard a

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<v Speaker 2>moment ago from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, and among the

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<v Speaker 2>points he made, China will now see a fifty four

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<v Speaker 2>percent tariff thirty four percent just announced that would be

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<v Speaker 2>on top of the existing twenty five That would be

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<v Speaker 2>on top of the existing twenty percent levy. For a

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<v Speaker 2>closer look, I'm joined now by Jenny Marsh, China Eco

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<v Speaker 2>Gov team leader. Jenny joins from our studios in Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 2>It's always a pleasure. How do these tariffs kind of

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<v Speaker 2>measure against expectations?

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is coming in at the high end here. So

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<v Speaker 1>I've actually just said this takes the hike to fifty

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<v Speaker 1>four percent, but Bloomberg Economics says, actually, when you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the around thirteen percent overall tariffs that China have

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<v Speaker 1>already facing from the US pre Trump, actually they're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at more of a sort of sixty seven sixty eight

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<v Speaker 1>percent hike tariff right now. So that is above the

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<v Speaker 1>level that last year economists were saying, you know, would

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<v Speaker 1>decimate trade between the world's biggest economies after Trump was

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<v Speaker 1>sort of floating that sixty percent figure on the campaign trail.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've now exceeded that threshold. It's much bigger, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>or rather it's the top end of sort of what

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<v Speaker 1>people were thinking could be possible. But of course, the

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<v Speaker 1>wrinkle here is when economists last year were saying, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>a sixty percent tariff, which is decimate trade. I think

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Economics said it would cut eighty percent of Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>exports to the US. They weren't thinking about an environment

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<v Speaker 1>where the whole world is being tariffed by Trump, and well,

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<v Speaker 1>China is sort of at the high end of that.

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<v Speaker 1>Everyone's facing tariffs now, so it isn't like importers in

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<v Speaker 1>the US can just sort of choose cheaper products from

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<v Speaker 1>elsewhere because everything suddenly got a lot more expensive.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it seems like a full blown trade war at

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<v Speaker 2>this point. We can talk about whether China retaliates in

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<v Speaker 2>a moment. I thought it was very interesting that the

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<v Speaker 2>US has addressed a loophole. It allows packages worth up

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<v Speaker 2>to eight hundred dollars from either China or Hong Kong

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.880
<v Speaker 2>to enter the US duty free. But now we were

0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.480
<v Speaker 2>told that's going to end May second, So it shouldn't

0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.679
<v Speaker 2>come as a surprise when you look at markets and

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.720
<v Speaker 2>see a sell off in shares like Ali Baba ANDJD

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:56.959
<v Speaker 2>dot Com. Was that a surprise at all?

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 1>Not a surprise because he talked about it in the

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:03.520
<v Speaker 1>executive order on the first day, and of course they

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.319
<v Speaker 1>tried sort of putting this break on the dominimous leepart

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:08.319
<v Speaker 1>earlier that they had to sort of lift it because

0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 1>logistically it's very hard to sort of logistics of how

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 1>you actually impose that. So I think that was pretty

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 1>expected and so now it's just a matter of okay,

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.960
<v Speaker 1>how do you sort of how do small companies deal

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 1>with that? But when you add that in as well,

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 1>actually the tariffrate looks even higher than sixty seven percent.

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.760
<v Speaker 2>I noticed that today the South China Morning Post was

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:35.719
<v Speaker 2>reporting that President she is set to visit Vietnam, Malaysia,

0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.960
<v Speaker 2>Cambodia in mid April. Now we know that all of

0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 2>those nations are being hit by this round of US tariffs.

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 2>Is this a part of some type of strategy that

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 2>she has maybe to reconfigure trade relationships.

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think the itinerary is really interesting. I mean,

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.000
<v Speaker 1>the first trip that she takes abroad every year always

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.640
<v Speaker 1>carries huge symbolism. Last year he chose to go to France,

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.839
<v Speaker 1>just the European Union is sort of way in these

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 1>big ev tariffs. This year he's picked Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia,

0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.240
<v Speaker 1>and you know, Vietnam and Malaysia sort of these two

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.960
<v Speaker 1>big countries that have sort of been a key part

0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.439
<v Speaker 1>of the China plus one strategy of sort of rerouting

0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:18.360
<v Speaker 1>trade to the US to sort of skirt tariffs and

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 1>also now facing their own huge levees. I think Vietnam's

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 1>tariffs were higher than China's. Forty six percent was the

0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>reciprocal figure announced today. So this is a big opportunity

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 1>for She, I think, to sort of go to these countries,

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 1>make trade deals, but also just sort of present China

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 1>as the grown up in the room. Vietnam have been

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.480
<v Speaker 1>very carefully balancing its ties. You know, it had hosted

0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Biden in I think it was twenty twenty three and

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.440
<v Speaker 1>then very quickly hosted shooting, paying for a visit and

0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 1>sort of playing this sort of playing both sides equally.

0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.880
<v Speaker 1>And I think now this gives China an opportunity to say, well,

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:01.320
<v Speaker 1>actually we are the best part and so this trip.

0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:03.520
<v Speaker 1>I think the timing of it is very interesting.

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm noticing weakness in the currency, but I would imagine

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 2>that the BBOC does not want the Chinese you want

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.200
<v Speaker 2>to weaken greatly in the face of this trade war.

0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 2>Right now, offshore, I think we're trading around seven spot

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:19.280
<v Speaker 2>three one seven zero against the greenback. Fair statement to

0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 2>say that the PBOC is going to try to keep

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.760
<v Speaker 2>the one as strong as it can under the circumstances.

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's the strategy that we have seen

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.480
<v Speaker 1>so far, and they don't want to invite any more

0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 1>criticism as well from the Trump administration.

0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.040
<v Speaker 2>In terms of the negative impact that this is going

0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 2>to have on Chinese economic growth, particularly as it relates

0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 2>to the exporters. What are you hearing about that.

0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I think it's an interesting reaction this morning from economists

0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:49.040
<v Speaker 1>who are saying they're sort of seeing a hit on

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 1>average of sort of a one percentage point to GDP

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 1>growth this year, but they're not downgraded in their GDP

0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 1>forecasts because I think everyone thinks China will still hit

0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 1>five percent what's going to have to happen now is

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 1>a massive sort of spending stimulus to fill the whole

0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 1>that is going to be left by the hit to

0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>exports to the US, and I think that's sort of

0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 1>what people are going to be looking to. There's the

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.920
<v Speaker 1>external strategy of does she get on the phone with Trump?

0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 1>I think he's extremely unlikely he's going to try and

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:19.960
<v Speaker 1>call him before that eight point nine deadline. Is just

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.520
<v Speaker 1>on how China does things. They're not going to respond

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 1>to strength with weakness. Much more likely they focus on

0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>shoring up their alliances trade partnerships around the world, and

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 1>they've been very careful to save stimulus for exactly this moment,

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>and now they have the chance to sort of roll

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:36.920
<v Speaker 1>out a big support package.

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 2>Jenny, I want you to help me look ahead to

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.160
<v Speaker 2>the inflation data that we're going to get for China

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:46.800
<v Speaker 2>in the coming week PPI CPI. We know the deflationary

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 2>pressures that the economy is facing. Is that going to

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:53.640
<v Speaker 2>be underscored by these data points or is something beginning

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:54.600
<v Speaker 2>to shift right now?

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>The CPI at the beginning of the year is pretty bad,

0:16:57.960 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 1>even when we take out the seasonal factors. It went

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:04.359
<v Speaker 1>down to negative point seven. The survey is for it

0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:07.160
<v Speaker 1>to come back up to zero, but still hovering right

0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.520
<v Speaker 1>on that zero point. You know, China is still facing

0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of deflationary pressures and this is only going

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.879
<v Speaker 1>to make it worse. So I think we're not seeing

0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.719
<v Speaker 1>those go away. I mean that being said before today,

0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 1>before Liberation Day, we has the economies upgrading their expectations

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.680
<v Speaker 1>for China this year because the economy has been looking

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.720
<v Speaker 1>pretty strong on other sort of aspects. The consumer is stirring,

0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.000
<v Speaker 1>these talks of the property market finally bottoming out. Animal

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:37.920
<v Speaker 1>spirits are up. So if China can spend enough to

0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 1>compensate for Trump's actions and then actually gets a bit

0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>of a Trump bump from other countries, now the sort

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.639
<v Speaker 1>of turned to China and away from the US, you know,

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.520
<v Speaker 1>this might not actually be so bad for Beijing.

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 2>Do you think. Can you imagine, let me put it

0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 2>that way, that sometime between now and the ninth of April,

0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:59.679
<v Speaker 2>when the retaliatory tariffs are set to kick in, that

0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:03.360
<v Speaker 2>they're will be some movement here between Washington and Beijing

0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:05.040
<v Speaker 2>in a positive direction.

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't think there will be, is my hunch, because

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 1>I think you had one Ye saying just this week,

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, in order to have talks, those the sort

0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 1>of the unfair fentanyl tariffs have got to come off.

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.880
<v Speaker 1>And when Senator Dane's left Beijing, he said, in order

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 1>to have talks, China has to stop the fental smuggling.

0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:26.199
<v Speaker 1>Neither of those things are going to happen in the

0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 1>next sort of seven days, so I don't see. I

0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:34.359
<v Speaker 1>don't think there'll be sort of scrambles for last minute negotiations.

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:36.480
<v Speaker 2>Jenny will leave it there. Thank you so much for

0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:38.879
<v Speaker 2>making time to chat with us. Jenny Marsh There she

0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.640
<v Speaker 2>is China ecogov team leader, joining from Hong Kong here

0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 2>on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening to today's

0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:52.360
<v Speaker 2>episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday,

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:56.320
<v Speaker 2>we look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 2>in the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple,

0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 2>Spotifyomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join

0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.919
<v Speaker 2>us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from

0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 2>Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:12.720
<v Speaker 2>this is Bloomberg