WEBVTT - An Update On The Revolution in Myanmar 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.000 All Zone Media. 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:07.760 Hi everyone, and welcome to it could happen here. 0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:11.559 I'm James and today I am joined by Billy Ford 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:13.680 from the United States Institute Piece. 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:15.640 A third time podcast guest. 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:16.000 Billy. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:16.320 How many? 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:18.480 I think it's just my second, but thanks for second? 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:20.599 Okay, Yeah, well I'll give you a bonus one. 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:21.600 Thanks for the invite. 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:26.520 Yeah, and we're here to discuss the revolution in Memma 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.840 and bring you up to date on conflict stuff and 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:33.800 natural disaster stuff and answer some questions people have asked 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:37.240 me by emailing me. So yeah, thanks for joining us, Biddy. 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:39.840 We're at another crossroads in the conflicts we talked about 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.360 before we started recording. Can you pres explain to folks 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:46.080 like what has happened since ten twenty seven? 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:46.560 Part two? 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:47.360 Sure? 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.159 Yeah, I mean, I think last time we talked, we 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:54.040 were just kind of in the throes of the initial 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:56.959 ten twenty seven things. I mean, I think zooming out 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:59.920 for a second, the you know, February twenty twenty one, coup, 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:06.240 September seventh, twenty twenty one, defensive wars announced and armed 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:10.399 resistance really kicks off. And then twenty twenty three October 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:14.520 things really escalate. After a few years of steady gains 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.080 by the resistance. Then there was a major level change 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:21.920 in the trajectory of the war favoring the resistance forces. Yeah, 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.160 I think, as you mentioned, there was a second phase 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:29.880 of ten twenty seven in July in early August that 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.200 took things kind of to another level, although it is 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:37.560 kind of just a continuation of a sustained. 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.840 Push by the resistance. I think some have perceived these. 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.800 Moments of October twenty twenty three in August twenty four 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:49.000 adds real watershed moments. But I think we can see 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:53.360 how these are illustrative or broader trends, trends in which 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.600 the mem or military is losing its capability to defend 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:02.760 strategic positions, it's inability to counter attack on the resistance side, 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:08.000 much greater coordination among resistance armed stakeholders, growing fighting capability, 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:12.280 better weapons access, all these sorts of factors that have 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.400 swung the balance of military power further in the favor 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.359 of resistance forces. But essentially what happened in July and 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:24.480 August was, building off of the October advances, the resistance 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.200 in northern Shan State, not far from the Chinese border, 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:32.079 pushed further into central miandmar In collaboration. This was essentially 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:37.400 ethnic based armed organizations collaborating with Bamar People's Defense Forces 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:40.919 under the command structure of the National Unity Government, and 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.840 they started making advances into central Burma. So whereas the 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.720 initial phase of the war and the NUG strategy was 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.799 to focus on building relationships between the People's Defense forces 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:56.919 under their command with ethnic based armed organizations and focusing 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:01.240 strategically on the peripheries to build those relationships, to build 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:04.800 ethnic buy into the broader revolution, to get access to weapons, 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:07.720 and to make steady advances. Now we're at a phase 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.120 where the resistance is pushing into central Meanmar. Now the 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:14.560 focus is on the city of Mandalay and central Burma, 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:19.560 which is the biggest commercial center of the country. So yeah, 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:24.040 I mean this has sparked another phase of I think 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:27.079 pressure and anxiety within Napida and the capital among the 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:32.800 state Administrative Council, hunta leadership, and yeah, more energy on 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:36.400 the resistance side. And it's kind of it's occurred alongside 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.840 advances on multiple other fronts. I mean, in the very 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.520 north of the country, Chen State, starting in March, the 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.680 Kachin force has pushed the Memori military out of it, it 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:50.160 was two hundred posts within four months. Similarly in Rakine State, 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.440 which I think, well, maybe we'll touch on more. The 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.120 aur Accon Army has made steady advances, so it's not 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.960 just in these subregions. It's happening virtually all over the 0:03:59.000 --> 0:03:59.880 country at this point. 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:04.040 Yeah, it does seem and like clearly the essays the 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:06.400 Hunter is kind of on the back foot, like it 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:10.760 started to forcibly conscript people, which in turn kind of 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.480 get people a choice between the resistance or the military, 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:15.840 and seems like more of them a choosing their resistance. 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:19.240 Some of the conscriptions, you know, people can buy out 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:22.479 of them, which obviously causes not great for the morale 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:26.120 of the population. And that's combined with shortages and inflation. 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.719 Pretty shit situation for folks living under Hunter. 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.880 Oh yeah, absolutely, I mean I think the memor of military, 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:34.359 I mean, there's a big question here about like the 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.960 resilience of this meam or military. I mean, frankly in 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:41.839 militaries in other countries have collapsed and are much less pressure. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.239 So there's a question here about like what is holding 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:50.240 this all together, particularly given that its primary resilience factors 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:54.480 are heavily degraded. I mean things like its ideological value. 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:56.680 I mean it's historically been about what we hold the 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.560 country together. We manage the diversity of this complex country. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:05.600 We defend the Bamar and the Buddhist populations. These factors 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.800 are no longer credible. I think it's more than one 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:11.520 hundred thousand homes in central Burma have been burnt to 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:14.760 the grounds. Most of those are Bamar Buddhists. And you know, 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.320 someone in the Sanga have risen up. The Buddhist Songa 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:19.920 have risen up in protests, including a recent killing of 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:23.719 a senior monk. So I think that ideological foundation is 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.560 totally degraded. The other factors, which are economic, the economic 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:31.360 benefits of being in this institution are also withering, as 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.479 like the entire economy is collapsing as your reference. And 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:36.880 then the third component is like the social status that 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.440 want to cheese through. Being a member of this institution 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.719 used to be a place where you could get economic 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.799 benefits and social benefits, and now it's really neither. 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.240 I mean you're reviled or a target. 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:52.880 For resistance assassination if you're affiliated with the institution. 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:54.920 So I think the question remains as. 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:56.520 To like what are the key factors keeping it in 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.720 place given all of these pressures that it's facing, And 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:01.120 you know, happy to go into that, but I think 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.400 there's there. It's an interesting case study in institutional resilience 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:09.400 and the challenges faced by a resistance movement that has 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.520 major resource constraints and you're fighting up against a military 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:19.839 institution that has learned how to orchestrate and sustain authoritarian 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.560 governance structures for decades. 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.680 So yeah, yeah, yeah, I think we can maybe circle 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:27.560 back to that. One thing I did want to talk 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.040 about before we move on to talking about what's happening 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:32.200 in recind State is I wanted to talk about the 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.479 recent flooding that people will have probably seen if they 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.680 have these friends on social media or keep keep an 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:42.840 eye on publications in a region. Can you explain a 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.160 little bit about like the scale of the flooding and 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:48.679 the absolutely bungled if any response from NAPYDAL. 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:49.320 Sure. 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.680 Yeah, I think the latest figures that I've seen were 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.919 one hundred and sixty thousand displaced, six hundred and thirty 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:59.119 affected by the floods, two one hundred and thirty dead, 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:00.839 and seventy missing. 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:02.039 I think that's what I saw this morning. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:04.080 But yeah, I mean I think that gives you a 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:08.599 sense that this is another humanitarian catastrophe on top of 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.800 a I think what is now rated the second most 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.880 intense violent conflict in the world by Accolade. 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.320 So this is just one crisis on top of another. 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.640 And yeah, as you kind of alluded to, the Memora 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:26.000 military is incapable and in unwilling to kind of address 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:27.960 the needs here of the population. 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:30.400 I mean, the one factor is that they. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:34.080 Don't have territorial control to move resources if they had 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:37.640 the political will to provide assistance. But of course they're 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.559 doing the exact opposite. In some of the most flood 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:44.320 affected parts of the country, they are continuing to conduct 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:48.320 air strikes on civilian populations. I mean, it's it's just 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:50.920 kind of a level of brutality that's kind of hard 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:51.400 to have them. 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.800 But yeah, I mean there's all these other kind of 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:54.880 ancillary effects of this. 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:58.360 I think there's signs of a cholera outbreak and yen Gon. 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:02.440 The economic conditions, as you mentioned a little bit earlier, 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:06.400 are horrendous. I mean, like the economy's lost thirty percent 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:08.080 of its value, and it's not a rich country to 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:11.280 begin with. Inflation is I think thirty two percent year 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:14.760 on year, with the memoar Chat having lost two hundred 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:16.880 percent of its value, I mean. 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.120 Yeah, it's two hundred percent less value than it was. Yeah. 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:22.800 So this is like, you know, it's just. 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.920 One catastrophe on top of another, and it's really testing 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:31.000 the Memur public's capacity to kind of support one another, 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.640 which is that's really been the incredible story here, and 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:37.200 it's not the first time that the MEMMR military, the 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:41.280 governing stakeholder, has failed to meet the needs and that 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:45.200 moment of crisis. Of course, psychloanargus one of the worst 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:49.880 natural disasters in the region's history was another instance in 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:53.600 which the Memmur military refused international assistance and kind of 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:58.400 instrumentalized humanitarian catastrophe for political aims. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:08:59.200 Yeah. 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:01.800 Yeah, I think people it's worth reading up on that 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.800 if you're interested in like the sort of longer term 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.679 history of the conflict and of sort of the military 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:10.720 in Miamma. Maybe now it's a good time to take 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:12.480 a break and we'll come back and discuss a little 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:14.200 bit about Racine state. 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:24.960 And we're back. Okay. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:29.720 So I think if people follow the conflict, they will 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:33.439 have probably seen like a series of conflicting and confusing 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:37.640 articles and messages about what's going on in Rakine State, 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.920 and some of that is because there's not a great 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.480 deal of reporting in the English language, a great deal 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:46.200 of sources in the English language. And even if there 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.199 is that, none of us can really make it to 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:51.160 Racine State right now. Going through Bangladesh would be quite 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.000 quite a challenging thing to do with that at this time. 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.320 And so I guess we should start breaking down if 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:00.480 people aren't aware the people who live and have lived 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.439 for a long time in Rakine State and the conflicts 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.000 have fixed it between them and the Burmese state. 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:06.160 Sure, yeah, I. 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.719 Mean Rakine State borders Bangladesh on the western side of 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:14.120 the Arts along coastal border as well, and the site 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.400 of some of the largest extractive oil and gas projects, 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.439 including the terminal for a major gas pipeline that feeds 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:24.360 fourteen percent of u Non Province's GP, So it has 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:28.720 huge strategic value. It's also China's aiming to kind of 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:34.040 access the Indian Ocean and circumvent the Strait of Malacca 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:37.360 by going directly to this kind of region of the country, 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:43.480 So it's highly strategically important. But it's also I think 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.800 it's the second poorest state in the entire country and 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:48.920 arguably the most conflict affected. 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:51.120 At least since twenty twelve ish. 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:56.079 So the population of Rakind state is highly diverse, kind 0:10:56.120 --> 0:11:00.360 of the last to have the broader country's demographics. Woods 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.960 of Bamar population, which is the dominant ethnic group at 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:07.760 the national level, the ethnic majority is kind. There's I mean, 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:13.000 historically a very large Muslim population of Rahinja Muslims primarily, 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:16.440 but also other Muslim minority groups including Kahman Muslims, and 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:21.199 then a number of other smaller ethnic minority groups Murmaji, 0:11:21.679 --> 0:11:24.960 Kami and others, as well as a small Hindu population. 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:26.200 So you can kind of get the sense that this 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:30.120 is a highly diverse space. I mean, many of the 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:34.199 listeners will have heard twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, Go was 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:37.520 the site of a massive clearance operation and the genocide 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:41.199 of Rhinja Muslims, about seven hundred and fifty thousand of 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.040 whom were pushed into Bangladesh and almost all of them 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:48.920 are still there inhabiting the largest refugee camp in the world. Yeah, 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:54.040 I mean, overall conditions for the Rhinja it's hard to 0:11:54.200 --> 0:12:00.400 imagine a more difficult set of conditions. The Bangladesh government 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:05.560 is quite impatient have hosted many hundreds of thousands of Rahinja, 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:08.960 some for seven years but others for actually for much 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:12.480 longer than that, as twenty sixteen twenty seventeen was a 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.959 moment in a genocide, but there have been instances of 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.719 memoir military atrocities against the Hindu population dating back to 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:21.040 the nineteen seventies as well. 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:24.880 So this is a long term kind of situation in 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:26.640 which the Bungadesh have been coasting Rehinja. 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.679 And yeah, I mean I think conditions in those camps 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:33.200 are really really challenging. The major issue now is the 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:37.280 arising and security in the camps, as some Rhinja militia 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.960 groups have gained ascendency in the camps, most of which 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:43.800 have very little public support, and when the Renja population 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:48.080 should be noted, the major dynamic that that's happened recently, 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.920 I mean the Arakan Army, which is almost entirely of 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:55.320 Kine ethnic groups and has broad public support among the 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:59.720 Rakine population of Rakind State, has made massive advances across 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.360 Hine State and now controls virtually all of northern Rakine 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.840 State and is pushing south. It took the city of 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.520 Tondue and the airport, which is the first time a 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:13.160 resistance group had taken an airport. It recently took a 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.280 naval base, the first time that has ever happened in 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.120 the history of the Memory military, and now it's pushing 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.440 its forest south as guas potentially threatening to control the 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:26.440 entire state. So as this has occurred, the MR military 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:30.200 is in a state of complete panic, and as it 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:34.840 is losing forces on this front, but also on numerous 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.880 other fronts, it has attempted to kind of buttress its 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:41.800 forces through force conscription and in the most potentially the 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:46.359 most horrifying move imaginable, it is forcibly conscripted the Rowhinja 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:51.079 into the MR military. They conducted genocide against the Rhinda 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:53.440 population and now they are forcing them to wear the 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.360 uniform of their genocider. It's kind of a level of horror. 0:13:57.720 --> 0:13:59.600 It's hard to understand. 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:01.400 And one way. 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:05.840 In which they've undertaken this effort is by collaborating with 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:11.120 Rehindra militia forces including ARSA, the Salvation Army and the 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.800 Rhindra Saldarity Organization ARSO, which have presence in the camps 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.760 and have been facilitating recruitment from the camps. So the 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.680 primary aim here as a military one, but a secondary aim, 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:27.320 which is really critical, is undermining interching cohesion in rekind 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:31.440 state because ultimately, like the BMW or military operates through coercion, 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.640 force and violence, but also through fragmentation so that it 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:38.240 doesn't face a unified resistance. And in this case they 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:42.840 want to incite instability by creating hatred between the Rhindra 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.120 and Rekine population and building off of the vitriol that 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.840 had built over decades. So this is kind of a 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:53.880 new paradigm that everyone is trying to better understand. But yeah, 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.960 it's it's kind of a new level. 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.880 Of r Yeah, and it's particularly horrific. As you say, 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.960 I think sometimes the tendency, especially with people who perhaps 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.520 are not as familiar with the situation and history there 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.720 to lump ethnic groups in as sort of monolithic actors, 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.320 right or homogeneous to be like, okay, so they re 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.800 Hinja as represented by ARSA and the RSO have joined 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.680 the Hunter, which is not the case. Like every Hinger 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.040 person I speak to, everyone I speak to in Cox's 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:26.040 Bizarre shares a loathing for those organizations. They're forced conscription 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.200 of young people, and yeah, their solidarity with the hunter 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:31.560 that committed the genocide against and it continued to commit 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:35.160 the genocide against these people. And I think the first 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:36.600 thing we need to do is move away from that 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.440 kind of homogeneous perspective. But maybe we could explain there 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:45.600 have been a few accusations of the our Econ army 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:50.720 making attacks against a hiner people, right NGA specifically hinder 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:52.520 people who are not armed, who are not part of 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.320 ROSO or A. Yeah, can you explain like what we 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:56.960 know and what we don't know there? 0:15:57.360 --> 0:15:57.720 Sure? 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:01.080 Yeah, I think there's just just are There is a 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:04.760 massive fog of war in Rekind state, may be worse 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.000 than any other part of the country, so it is 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.360 really difficult to disentangle fact from fiction here. But I 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:15.000 think there's pretty credible evidence that the Arkhan Army have 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:19.520 committed atrocities against hind Of civilian populations. In early August, 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.480 there was a specific incident in which hundreds of Rahinja 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:27.240 were killed in a drone strike, and Fortified Rights, which 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:31.720 is a human rights organization, conducted investigation to the incident 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.960 and asserts that the ark On Army was responsible for 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:39.600 that of course, the AA disputes these claims, and I 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.200 think there's a few recent interviews with the commander in 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.480 chief of the Army to nine where you know, he 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:48.720 articulates his side of the story, which you could find 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.360 on Irwadi dot com and. 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:52.560 I think in a few other news outlets. 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.360 Yeah, the diplomat did one as well. He's been on 0:16:55.400 --> 0:17:00.600 a publicity tour I guess recently. Yeah, absolutely, you've seen this. 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:04.240 But like his tendency to cool or hint of people 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:08.280 bangladeshis it is unfortunate given that that's a language that 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.440 was used to justify the genocide. 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.040 Right, absolutely, Yeah, it reflects kind of the language that 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:14.480 the Memora military used. 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:18.080 Well, Bengali's he'll call them exactly. Yeah, it's very reflective 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:18.280 of that. 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.439 Yeah, So this is really challenging, and part because I 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.760 think that there is kind of an important distinction between 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.120 the Metamora military and the ark On Army in this case, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.320 in part because the ark On Army has a raw 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:34.280 public support among the rekind public and so it has 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:38.119 a more of a legitimate stake to governance than the 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.840 Menmora military, which has none. And so this is it's 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:45.159 kind of an issue that requires attention and an honest 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:49.480 accounting of the facts and a long process of reconciliation. 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.200 Part because of the ark On Army is likely there 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:55.600 to stay as a governing stakeholder. Yeah, so that that 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.240 is a really tricky kind of set of conditions. 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:00.840 And the other side of this is that the re 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:01.640 kind of public. 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.520 I think there is a deep sense of a grievance 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.000 among the rekind public. And this is a population that 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:12.600 has also faced years of intense political alienation and persecution. 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.040 Not to mention war and violence. 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.000 You know, last year when Cyclo and Moca hit the 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:21.000 Kind State, the Memora military did virtually nothing to help them. 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:22.920 So it's a population with. 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.520 Legitimate a grievances and they and their perception is that 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.919 the international community only focuses on the rehint of public's 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.240 well being. And I think the international community can do 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.960 a better job of showing sympathy for the rekind public's interests. 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.879 I think sympathy is not like zero sum in that sense, 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.200 and that needs to be done better. Yeah, But honestly, 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:44.520 like the equating a grievances is also really kind of 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:45.520 unfair and dishonest. 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:46.359 And you know this. 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:51.600 Rehindered population is marginalized to just such an extreme degree. 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.080 And so those are a really interesting report by Doctors 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:55.000 Without Borders not. 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.600 Too long ago it that showed that only like six 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.320 hundred thousand of the two point eight million were Hinja 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.600 in the world, that in MR fifty seven percent of 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:07.959 living in camps and Bangladesh or in IDP camps and MEMR. 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.160 So it's like there's just like a highly vulnerable population 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:13.520 that has experienced genocide, you know. 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.280 It's like there are there's a power in balance, you know. 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.120 So it's like, I think it's not the same. 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:18.920 I don't know. 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:24.479 The whole process of kind Rhinda reorconciliation is one that 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:28.439 deserves immediate and urgent attention, but there's also a long 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:32.480 term process of constructing, you know, a governance structure that 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.200 is acceptable and that's not a highly exclusionary of Rhinda and. 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.800 These sorts of things. So it's a it's a highly 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:39.440 and beyond the. 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:43.119 Fact that we need more a deliberate investigation in some 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.800 of these incidents, I think a broader conversational reconciliation and 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:48.560 justice needs to needs to take place. 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:51.760 Yeah, and it's definitely one at least you know, I 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:53.680 speak to people who are probably on the more progressive 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:57.359 side of the resistance, and it's one that they've acknowledged, 0:19:57.400 --> 0:19:59.360 like it's something that they need to address, and kind 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:05.080 of the litmus test for like a post hunter mean mars, 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.160 like are there places for these people who they weren't 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:10.119 places for in this state before? But yeah, how we 0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.760 get there is it's difficult, and I don't think that's 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:16.000 not that's not a clear pathway that anyone's kind of 0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:17.600 pointed to this yet. 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:18.120 Yeah. 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.679 The one thing I would add is like this is 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:25.320 sort of emblematic of broader perceptions of MEMR and approaches 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.119 to peace building a MEMR is that there's there's often 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:30.399 a horizontal approach that like we need to work on 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:34.920 the intercommunal level, individual level trust building, that sort of thing. 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.240 And I think there is a place for that for sure. 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:41.239 But we've done a couple pieces of research with an 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:44.720 academic at UG Austin who has found some really interesting 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.600 stuff about like the nature of conflict in the country 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:50.719 and nature of cohesion in the country. And she's found 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:54.280 including through some experimental research, studies and designs which are 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:59.320 quite revealing. I think that national identity is often more 0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:03.840 important to respondence in her surveys than ethnic identity, which 0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:07.000 is which kind of cuts against like the traditional perceptions 0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:10.720 of how Memra is, like, Oh, it's this irreconcilably fractious 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:13.919 place and it's so hard to build trust between communities. 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:14.440 And that sort of thing. 0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:17.480 But for her research kind of points to the vertical dimension, 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:21.520 where it's the nature of Memor politics and the nature 0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:26.560 of governance structures that highly exclusionary, discriminatory governance structures have 0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:29.920 sustained conflict for so long in the country. 0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:32.480 And this is kind of like the main argument for 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:33.240 the resistance. 0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:35.600 You know, it's like a lot of the stakeholders, at 0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:38.959 least a critical mass within this resistance movement, they're trying 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.520 to assert a new political paradigm in the country, you know, 0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:47.000 a more stable political paradigm in which the Memour military 0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:49.679 is not a dominant stakeholder, in which violence is not 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.639 your source of power, in which that's not built on 0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:57.439 exclusionary norms of belonging. So it's like it is genuinely 0:21:57.440 --> 0:22:00.360