1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: All Zone Media. 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 2: Hi everyone, and welcome to it could happen here. 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 3: I'm James and today I am joined by Billy Ford 4 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 3: from the United States Institute Piece. 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: A third time podcast guest. 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: Billy. 7 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: How many? 8 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 4: I think it's just my second, but thanks for second? 9 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, well I'll give you a bonus one. 10 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 4: Thanks for the invite. 11 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're here to discuss the revolution in Memma 12 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 3: and bring you up to date on conflict stuff and 13 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 3: natural disaster stuff and answer some questions people have asked 14 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 3: me by emailing me. So yeah, thanks for joining us, Biddy. 15 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 3: We're at another crossroads in the conflicts we talked about 16 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 3: before we started recording. Can you pres explain to folks 17 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 3: like what has happened since ten twenty seven? 18 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 2: Part two? 19 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 4: Sure? 20 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think last time we talked, we 21 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 5: were just kind of in the throes of the initial 22 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,959 Speaker 5: ten twenty seven things. I mean, I think zooming out 23 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 5: for a second, the you know, February twenty twenty one, coup, 24 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 5: September seventh, twenty twenty one, defensive wars announced and armed 25 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 5: resistance really kicks off. And then twenty twenty three October 26 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 5: things really escalate. After a few years of steady gains 27 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 5: by the resistance. Then there was a major level change 28 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 5: in the trajectory of the war favoring the resistance forces. Yeah, 29 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 5: I think, as you mentioned, there was a second phase 30 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 5: of ten twenty seven in July in early August that 31 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 5: took things kind of to another level, although it is 32 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 5: kind of just a continuation of a sustained. 33 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 4: Push by the resistance. I think some have perceived these. 34 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 5: Moments of October twenty twenty three in August twenty four 35 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 5: adds real watershed moments. But I think we can see 36 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 5: how these are illustrative or broader trends, trends in which 37 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 5: the mem or military is losing its capability to defend 38 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 5: strategic positions, it's inability to counter attack on the resistance side, 39 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 5: much greater coordination among resistance armed stakeholders, growing fighting capability, 40 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 5: better weapons access, all these sorts of factors that have 41 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 5: swung the balance of military power further in the favor 42 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 5: of resistance forces. But essentially what happened in July and 43 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 5: August was, building off of the October advances, the resistance 44 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 5: in northern Shan State, not far from the Chinese border, 45 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 5: pushed further into central miandmar In collaboration. This was essentially 46 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 5: ethnic based armed organizations collaborating with Bamar People's Defense Forces 47 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 5: under the command structure of the National Unity Government, and 48 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 5: they started making advances into central Burma. So whereas the 49 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 5: initial phase of the war and the NUG strategy was 50 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 5: to focus on building relationships between the People's Defense forces 51 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 5: under their command with ethnic based armed organizations and focusing 52 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 5: strategically on the peripheries to build those relationships, to build 53 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 5: ethnic buy into the broader revolution, to get access to weapons, 54 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 5: and to make steady advances. Now we're at a phase 55 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 5: where the resistance is pushing into central Meanmar. Now the 56 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 5: focus is on the city of Mandalay and central Burma, 57 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 5: which is the biggest commercial center of the country. So yeah, 58 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 5: I mean this has sparked another phase of I think 59 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 5: pressure and anxiety within Napida and the capital among the 60 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 5: state Administrative Council, hunta leadership, and yeah, more energy on 61 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 5: the resistance side. And it's kind of it's occurred alongside 62 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 5: advances on multiple other fronts. I mean, in the very 63 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 5: north of the country, Chen State, starting in March, the 64 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 5: Kachin force has pushed the Memori military out of it, it 65 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 5: was two hundred posts within four months. Similarly in Rakine State, 66 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 5: which I think, well, maybe we'll touch on more. The 67 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 5: aur Accon Army has made steady advances, so it's not 68 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 5: just in these subregions. It's happening virtually all over the 69 00:03:59,000 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 5: country at this point. 70 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, it does seem and like clearly the essays the 71 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 3: Hunter is kind of on the back foot, like it 72 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 3: started to forcibly conscript people, which in turn kind of 73 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 3: get people a choice between the resistance or the military, 74 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: and seems like more of them a choosing their resistance. 75 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 3: Some of the conscriptions, you know, people can buy out 76 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 3: of them, which obviously causes not great for the morale 77 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 3: of the population. And that's combined with shortages and inflation. 78 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 3: Pretty shit situation for folks living under Hunter. 79 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, absolutely, I mean I think the memor of military, 80 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 5: I mean, there's a big question here about like the 81 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 5: resilience of this meam or military. I mean, frankly in 82 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 5: militaries in other countries have collapsed and are much less pressure. 83 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,239 Speaker 5: So there's a question here about like what is holding 84 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 5: this all together, particularly given that its primary resilience factors 85 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 5: are heavily degraded. I mean things like its ideological value. 86 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 5: I mean it's historically been about what we hold the 87 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 5: country together. We manage the diversity of this complex country. 88 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 5: We defend the Bamar and the Buddhist populations. These factors 89 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 5: are no longer credible. I think it's more than one 90 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 5: hundred thousand homes in central Burma have been burnt to 91 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 5: the grounds. Most of those are Bamar Buddhists. And you know, 92 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 5: someone in the Sanga have risen up. The Buddhist Songa 93 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 5: have risen up in protests, including a recent killing of 94 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 5: a senior monk. So I think that ideological foundation is 95 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 5: totally degraded. The other factors, which are economic, the economic 96 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 5: benefits of being in this institution are also withering, as 97 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 5: like the entire economy is collapsing as your reference. And 98 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 5: then the third component is like the social status that 99 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 5: want to cheese through. Being a member of this institution 100 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 5: used to be a place where you could get economic 101 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 5: benefits and social benefits, and now it's really neither. 102 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 4: I mean you're reviled or a target. 103 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 5: For resistance assassination if you're affiliated with the institution. 104 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 4: So I think the question remains as. 105 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 5: To like what are the key factors keeping it in 106 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 5: place given all of these pressures that it's facing, And 107 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 5: you know, happy to go into that, but I think 108 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 5: there's there. It's an interesting case study in institutional resilience 109 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 5: and the challenges faced by a resistance movement that has 110 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 5: major resource constraints and you're fighting up against a military 111 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 5: institution that has learned how to orchestrate and sustain authoritarian 112 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 5: governance structures for decades. 113 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, yeah, I think we can maybe circle 114 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: back to that. One thing I did want to talk 115 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 3: about before we move on to talking about what's happening 116 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: in recind State is I wanted to talk about the 117 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 3: recent flooding that people will have probably seen if they 118 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 3: have these friends on social media or keep keep an 119 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 3: eye on publications in a region. Can you explain a 120 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 3: little bit about like the scale of the flooding and 121 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,679 Speaker 3: the absolutely bungled if any response from NAPYDAL. 122 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 4: Sure. 123 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the latest figures that I've seen were 124 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 5: one hundred and sixty thousand displaced, six hundred and thirty 125 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,119 Speaker 5: affected by the floods, two one hundred and thirty dead, 126 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 5: and seventy missing. 127 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 4: I think that's what I saw this morning. 128 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean I think that gives you a 129 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 5: sense that this is another humanitarian catastrophe on top of 130 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 5: a I think what is now rated the second most 131 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 5: intense violent conflict in the world by Accolade. 132 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 4: So this is just one crisis on top of another. 133 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 5: And yeah, as you kind of alluded to, the Memora 134 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 5: military is incapable and in unwilling to kind of address 135 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 5: the needs here of the population. 136 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 4: I mean, the one factor is that they. 137 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 5: Don't have territorial control to move resources if they had 138 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 5: the political will to provide assistance. But of course they're 139 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,559 Speaker 5: doing the exact opposite. In some of the most flood 140 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 5: affected parts of the country, they are continuing to conduct 141 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 5: air strikes on civilian populations. I mean, it's it's just 142 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 5: kind of a level of brutality that's kind of hard 143 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 5: to have them. 144 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean there's all these other kind of 145 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 4: ancillary effects of this. 146 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 5: I think there's signs of a cholera outbreak and yen Gon. 147 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 5: The economic conditions, as you mentioned a little bit earlier, 148 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 5: are horrendous. I mean, like the economy's lost thirty percent 149 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 5: of its value, and it's not a rich country to 150 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 5: begin with. Inflation is I think thirty two percent year 151 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 5: on year, with the memoar Chat having lost two hundred 152 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 5: percent of its value, I mean. 153 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's two hundred percent less value than it was. Yeah. 154 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 4: So this is like, you know, it's just. 155 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 5: One catastrophe on top of another, and it's really testing 156 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 5: the Memur public's capacity to kind of support one another, 157 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 5: which is that's really been the incredible story here, and 158 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 5: it's not the first time that the MEMMR military, the 159 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 5: governing stakeholder, has failed to meet the needs and that 160 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 5: moment of crisis. Of course, psychloanargus one of the worst 161 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 5: natural disasters in the region's history was another instance in 162 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 5: which the Memmur military refused international assistance and kind of 163 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 5: instrumentalized humanitarian catastrophe for political aims. 164 00:08:58,960 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. 165 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people it's worth reading up on that 166 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 3: if you're interested in like the sort of longer term 167 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 3: history of the conflict and of sort of the military 168 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 3: in Miamma. Maybe now it's a good time to take 169 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 3: a break and we'll come back and discuss a little 170 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 3: bit about Racine state. 171 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 2: And we're back. Okay. 172 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 3: So I think if people follow the conflict, they will 173 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 3: have probably seen like a series of conflicting and confusing 174 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 3: articles and messages about what's going on in Rakine State, 175 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 3: and some of that is because there's not a great 176 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 3: deal of reporting in the English language, a great deal 177 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 3: of sources in the English language. And even if there 178 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,199 Speaker 3: is that, none of us can really make it to 179 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: Racine State right now. Going through Bangladesh would be quite 180 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 3: quite a challenging thing to do with that at this time. 181 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 3: And so I guess we should start breaking down if 182 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 3: people aren't aware the people who live and have lived 183 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 3: for a long time in Rakine State and the conflicts 184 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 3: have fixed it between them and the Burmese state. 185 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 4: Sure, yeah, I. 186 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,719 Speaker 5: Mean Rakine State borders Bangladesh on the western side of 187 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 5: the Arts along coastal border as well, and the site 188 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 5: of some of the largest extractive oil and gas projects, 189 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 5: including the terminal for a major gas pipeline that feeds 190 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 5: fourteen percent of u Non Province's GP, So it has 191 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 5: huge strategic value. It's also China's aiming to kind of 192 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 5: access the Indian Ocean and circumvent the Strait of Malacca 193 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 5: by going directly to this kind of region of the country, 194 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 5: So it's highly strategically important. But it's also I think 195 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 5: it's the second poorest state in the entire country and 196 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 5: arguably the most conflict affected. 197 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 4: At least since twenty twelve ish. 198 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 5: So the population of Rakind state is highly diverse, kind 199 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 5: of the last to have the broader country's demographics. Woods 200 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 5: of Bamar population, which is the dominant ethnic group at 201 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 5: the national level, the ethnic majority is kind. There's I mean, 202 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 5: historically a very large Muslim population of Rahinja Muslims primarily, 203 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 5: but also other Muslim minority groups including Kahman Muslims, and 204 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 5: then a number of other smaller ethnic minority groups Murmaji, 205 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 5: Kami and others, as well as a small Hindu population. 206 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 5: So you can kind of get the sense that this 207 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 5: is a highly diverse space. I mean, many of the 208 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 5: listeners will have heard twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, Go was 209 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 5: the site of a massive clearance operation and the genocide 210 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 5: of Rhinja Muslims, about seven hundred and fifty thousand of 211 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 5: whom were pushed into Bangladesh and almost all of them 212 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 5: are still there inhabiting the largest refugee camp in the world. Yeah, 213 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 5: I mean, overall conditions for the Rhinja it's hard to 214 00:11:54,200 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: imagine a more difficult set of conditions. The Bangladesh government 215 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 5: is quite impatient have hosted many hundreds of thousands of Rahinja, 216 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 5: some for seven years but others for actually for much 217 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 5: longer than that, as twenty sixteen twenty seventeen was a 218 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 5: moment in a genocide, but there have been instances of 219 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:19,719 Speaker 5: memoir military atrocities against the Hindu population dating back to 220 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 5: the nineteen seventies as well. 221 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 4: So this is a long term kind of situation in 222 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 4: which the Bungadesh have been coasting Rehinja. 223 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 5: And yeah, I mean I think conditions in those camps 224 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 5: are really really challenging. The major issue now is the 225 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 5: arising and security in the camps, as some Rhinja militia 226 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 5: groups have gained ascendency in the camps, most of which 227 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 5: have very little public support, and when the Renja population 228 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 5: should be noted, the major dynamic that that's happened recently, 229 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 5: I mean the Arakan Army, which is almost entirely of 230 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 5: Kine ethnic groups and has broad public support among the 231 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 5: Rakine population of Rakind State, has made massive advances across 232 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 5: Hine State and now controls virtually all of northern Rakine 233 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 5: State and is pushing south. It took the city of 234 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 5: Tondue and the airport, which is the first time a 235 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 5: resistance group had taken an airport. It recently took a 236 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 5: naval base, the first time that has ever happened in 237 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 5: the history of the Memory military, and now it's pushing 238 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 5: its forest south as guas potentially threatening to control the 239 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 5: entire state. So as this has occurred, the MR military 240 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 5: is in a state of complete panic, and as it 241 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 5: is losing forces on this front, but also on numerous 242 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 5: other fronts, it has attempted to kind of buttress its 243 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 5: forces through force conscription and in the most potentially the 244 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:46,359 Speaker 5: most horrifying move imaginable, it is forcibly conscripted the Rowhinja 245 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 5: into the MR military. They conducted genocide against the Rhinda 246 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 5: population and now they are forcing them to wear the 247 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 5: uniform of their genocider. It's kind of a level of horror. 248 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 5: It's hard to understand. 249 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 4: And one way. 250 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 5: In which they've undertaken this effort is by collaborating with 251 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 5: Rehindra militia forces including ARSA, the Salvation Army and the 252 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 5: Rhindra Saldarity Organization ARSO, which have presence in the camps 253 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 5: and have been facilitating recruitment from the camps. So the 254 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 5: primary aim here as a military one, but a secondary aim, 255 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 5: which is really critical, is undermining interching cohesion in rekind 256 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 5: state because ultimately, like the BMW or military operates through coercion, 257 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 5: force and violence, but also through fragmentation so that it 258 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 5: doesn't face a unified resistance. And in this case they 259 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 5: want to incite instability by creating hatred between the Rhindra 260 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 5: and Rekine population and building off of the vitriol that 261 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 5: had built over decades. So this is kind of a 262 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 5: new paradigm that everyone is trying to better understand. But yeah, 263 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 5: it's it's kind of a new level. 264 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 3: Of r Yeah, and it's particularly horrific. As you say, 265 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 3: I think sometimes the tendency, especially with people who perhaps 266 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 3: are not as familiar with the situation and history there 267 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: to lump ethnic groups in as sort of monolithic actors, 268 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 3: right or homogeneous to be like, okay, so they re 269 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: Hinja as represented by ARSA and the RSO have joined 270 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 3: the Hunter, which is not the case. Like every Hinger 271 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 3: person I speak to, everyone I speak to in Cox's 272 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 3: Bizarre shares a loathing for those organizations. They're forced conscription 273 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 3: of young people, and yeah, their solidarity with the hunter 274 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 3: that committed the genocide against and it continued to commit 275 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 3: the genocide against these people. And I think the first 276 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 3: thing we need to do is move away from that 277 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 3: kind of homogeneous perspective. But maybe we could explain there 278 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 3: have been a few accusations of the our Econ army 279 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 3: making attacks against a hiner people, right NGA specifically hinder 280 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 3: people who are not armed, who are not part of 281 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 3: ROSO or A. Yeah, can you explain like what we 282 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 3: know and what we don't know there? 283 00:15:57,360 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 4: Sure? 284 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think there's just just are There is a 285 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 5: massive fog of war in Rekind state, may be worse 286 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 5: than any other part of the country, so it is 287 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 5: really difficult to disentangle fact from fiction here. But I 288 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 5: think there's pretty credible evidence that the Arkhan Army have 289 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 5: committed atrocities against hind Of civilian populations. In early August, 290 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 5: there was a specific incident in which hundreds of Rahinja 291 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 5: were killed in a drone strike, and Fortified Rights, which 292 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 5: is a human rights organization, conducted investigation to the incident 293 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 5: and asserts that the ark On Army was responsible for 294 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 5: that of course, the AA disputes these claims, and I 295 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 5: think there's a few recent interviews with the commander in 296 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 5: chief of the Army to nine where you know, he 297 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 5: articulates his side of the story, which you could find 298 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 5: on Irwadi dot com and. 299 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 4: I think in a few other news outlets. 300 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, the diplomat did one as well. He's been on 301 00:16:55,400 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 3: a publicity tour I guess recently. Yeah, absolutely, you've seen this. 302 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 3: But like his tendency to cool or hint of people 303 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 3: bangladeshis it is unfortunate given that that's a language that 304 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 3: was used to justify the genocide. 305 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 5: Right, absolutely, Yeah, it reflects kind of the language that 306 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 5: the Memora military used. 307 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 2: Well, Bengali's he'll call them exactly. Yeah, it's very reflective 308 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 2: of that. 309 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 5: Yeah, So this is really challenging, and part because I 310 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 5: think that there is kind of an important distinction between 311 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 5: the Metamora military and the ark On Army in this case, 312 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 5: in part because the ark On Army has a raw 313 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: public support among the rekind public and so it has 314 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 5: a more of a legitimate stake to governance than the 315 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 5: Menmora military, which has none. And so this is it's 316 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 5: kind of an issue that requires attention and an honest 317 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 5: accounting of the facts and a long process of reconciliation. 318 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 5: Part because of the ark On Army is likely there 319 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 5: to stay as a governing stakeholder. Yeah, so that that 320 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 5: is a really tricky kind of set of conditions. 321 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 4: And the other side of this is that the re 322 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 4: kind of public. 323 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 5: I think there is a deep sense of a grievance 324 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 5: among the rekind public. And this is a population that 325 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 5: has also faced years of intense political alienation and persecution. 326 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 4: Not to mention war and violence. 327 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 5: You know, last year when Cyclo and Moca hit the 328 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 5: Kind State, the Memora military did virtually nothing to help them. 329 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 4: So it's a population with. 330 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 5: Legitimate a grievances and they and their perception is that 331 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 5: the international community only focuses on the rehint of public's 332 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 5: well being. And I think the international community can do 333 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 5: a better job of showing sympathy for the rekind public's interests. 334 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 5: I think sympathy is not like zero sum in that sense, 335 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 5: and that needs to be done better. Yeah, But honestly, 336 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 5: like the equating a grievances is also really kind of 337 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 5: unfair and dishonest. 338 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 4: And you know this. 339 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 5: Rehindered population is marginalized to just such an extreme degree. 340 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 4: And so those are a really interesting report by Doctors 341 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 4: Without Borders not. 342 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 5: Too long ago it that showed that only like six 343 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 5: hundred thousand of the two point eight million were Hinja 344 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 5: in the world, that in MR fifty seven percent of 345 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,959 Speaker 5: living in camps and Bangladesh or in IDP camps and MEMR. 346 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 5: So it's like there's just like a highly vulnerable population 347 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 5: that has experienced genocide, you know. 348 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 4: It's like there are there's a power in balance, you know. 349 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 2: So it's like, I think it's not the same. 350 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 4: I don't know. 351 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:24,479 Speaker 5: The whole process of kind Rhinda reorconciliation is one that 352 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 5: deserves immediate and urgent attention, but there's also a long 353 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 5: term process of constructing, you know, a governance structure that 354 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 5: is acceptable and that's not a highly exclusionary of Rhinda and. 355 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 4: These sorts of things. So it's a it's a highly 356 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 4: and beyond the. 357 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 5: Fact that we need more a deliberate investigation in some 358 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 5: of these incidents, I think a broader conversational reconciliation and 359 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 5: justice needs to needs to take place. 360 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's definitely one at least you know, I 361 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 3: speak to people who are probably on the more progressive 362 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 3: side of the resistance, and it's one that they've acknowledged, 363 00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 3: like it's something that they need to address, and kind 364 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 3: of the litmus test for like a post hunter mean mars, 365 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 3: like are there places for these people who they weren't 366 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 3: places for in this state before? But yeah, how we 367 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 3: get there is it's difficult, and I don't think that's 368 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 3: not that's not a clear pathway that anyone's kind of 369 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 3: pointed to this yet. 370 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 4: Yeah. 371 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 5: The one thing I would add is like this is 372 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 5: sort of emblematic of broader perceptions of MEMR and approaches 373 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 5: to peace building a MEMR is that there's there's often 374 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 5: a horizontal approach that like we need to work on 375 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 5: the intercommunal level, individual level trust building, that sort of thing. 376 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 5: And I think there is a place for that for sure. 377 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,239 Speaker 5: But we've done a couple pieces of research with an 378 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 5: academic at UG Austin who has found some really interesting 379 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 5: stuff about like the nature of conflict in the country 380 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,719 Speaker 5: and nature of cohesion in the country. And she's found 381 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 5: including through some experimental research, studies and designs which are 382 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 5: quite revealing. I think that national identity is often more 383 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 5: important to respondence in her surveys than ethnic identity, which 384 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 5: is which kind of cuts against like the traditional perceptions 385 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 5: of how Memra is, like, Oh, it's this irreconcilably fractious 386 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 5: place and it's so hard to build trust between communities. 387 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 4: And that sort of thing. 388 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 5: But for her research kind of points to the vertical dimension, 389 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 5: where it's the nature of Memor politics and the nature 390 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 5: of governance structures that highly exclusionary, discriminatory governance structures have 391 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 5: sustained conflict for so long in the country. 392 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 4: And this is kind of like the main argument for 393 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 4: the resistance. 394 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 5: You know, it's like a lot of the stakeholders, at 395 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 5: least a critical mass within this resistance movement, they're trying 396 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 5: to assert a new political paradigm in the country, you know, 397 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 5: a more stable political paradigm in which the Memour military 398 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 5: is not a dominant stakeholder, in which violence is not 399 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 5: your source of power, in which that's not built on 400 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,439 Speaker 5: exclusionary norms of belonging. So it's like it is genuinely 401 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,360 Speaker 5: a revolution in this sense, and that is why they're 402 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 5: they're kind of pushing against the international pressures to enter 403 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 5: into a power sharing your dream with the VMR military 404 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 5: because there's a perception that if them our military it 405 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 5: remains in a position of political power, they will interrupt 406 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 5: this reform process and then violence world persist. 407 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 4: In the country. 408 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and I think that's probably a reasonable assumption 409 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 3: to make. Like, again, this is like one of those 410 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 3: things that I see a lot in different places in 411 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 3: the world where I go, right, there's this tendency to 412 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 3: see things, I think from sort of colonial perspective and 413 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 3: just be like, oh, these ethnicities will squabble and fight, 414 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 3: and like that's not necessarily the case at all, And 415 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 3: like if you look even to the PDFs, Like I 416 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 3: was speaking to someone the other day who was saying, like, 417 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 3: there are jib Muslim women fighting with the koren right now, 418 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 3: which is something that doesn't align up with this idea 419 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 3: of like ethnicities which are clashing and can't combine. And 420 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 3: we saw like a statement of solidarity from the Karenni 421 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,919 Speaker 3: to the Kurdish people, which doesn't line up with this 422 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 3: idea of an inherently Islamophobic like you know, sort of 423 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 3: massive of Buddhist people in the Amma, which I think, Yeah, 424 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 3: it's a little oversimplified to say that stuff and I 425 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 3: think sometimes reductive, and it's the analysis of me and 426 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 3: Mark as a place where colonialism is still occurring, and 427 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 3: the methods of colonialism, like lots of the things you 428 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 3: describe right, like promoting fractures, promoting these different ethnic identities 429 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 3: which are seen as kind of zero sum and mutually exclusive. 430 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 3: These are things that the United Kingdom did or Britain 431 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 3: did all around the world for centuries. And it's not 432 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 3: rocket science to see how that jumps to another group 433 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 3: which especially in some cases was trained by the British 434 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 3: or had relations with the British, and you know, to 435 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 3: see how we got there. But I think we'll take 436 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 3: another little break here, we'll come back, and I want 437 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 3: to discuss the resilience of the Hunter and how it's 438 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:56,719 Speaker 3: hanging on. 439 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 2: All right, we're back. 440 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 3: So for the last little segment of this podcast, I 441 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 3: would like to discuss how the Burmese military is holding 442 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 3: onto powers. When I speak to soldiers who have defected, 443 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 3: I speak to I've spoken to about half a dozen, 444 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 3: I guess soldiers who have defected over time. It's almost 445 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 3: comic how disorganized and chaotic things are, and at the 446 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 3: same time it's terrible the way like every single one 447 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 3: of them has described to me that their families are 448 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 3: essentially held as collateral to stop them deserting, right, and 449 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 3: so they had to work with the civil disobedience movement 450 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 3: to first extract their families before they themselves took their 451 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 3: weapons in most cases because they get a bounty for 452 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 3: their weapons and went to join the resistance or in 453 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 3: some cases went into exile. So like, maybe that gives 454 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 3: us a good view on how the Hunter is it's 455 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 3: continuing to force people to fight in this war that 456 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 3: it's losing. Can you explain a little bit of how 457 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 3: they've held onto power? 458 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 5: Sure, Yeah, I guess the first thing to note is 459 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 5: that rates of defection are totally historic. I mean, yeah, 460 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 5: by our account, about fifteen thousand deserters, which is actually 461 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 5: not radically different than historical norms. The mem Our military 462 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 5: has comparatively high rates of desertion even before the coup, 463 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 5: so that's not, you know, far outside of the norm. 464 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 5: But the defection, I think there's about fifty eight hundred 465 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 5: defectors by our account since the coup, which is unprecedented. 466 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 5: There's never never really been defection to resistance in memr's history. 467 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,159 Speaker 5: The other factor is the number of individuals who are 468 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 5: surrendering without a fight with you know, without with putting 469 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 5: up little resistance. That number is hard to count, but 470 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 5: it's our by our raid, it seems to be quite high. 471 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 5: There's forms of acts of disloyalty occurring that are not, 472 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 5: you know, spurring institutional collapse, but are that are degrading 473 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 5: the memoir of military's fighting capabilities, which is a really 474 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 5: important dynamic. So say that at the outset outset. The 475 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 5: other thing I'd say is that, like, I think we 476 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 5: need to sort of think about this at three levels. So, 477 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 5: like the rank and file soldiers, they are significantly demoralized. 478 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 5: Most did not join the military to fight. They joined 479 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 5: the military for economic stability and for social status, and 480 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 5: neither of those are available to them under this military's leadership. 481 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 5: They certainly did not join to commit atrocities against the 482 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 5: Bamar Buddhist population, which. 483 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 4: Is now what they're enforced to. 484 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 5: So I think that population, the large number of rank 485 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 5: and file soldiers, is highly demoralized, and that's where you 486 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 5: have seen lots of desertion, defection, often from the front lines. 487 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 5: Though that population's defection desertion is not going to trigger 488 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:50,439 Speaker 5: institutional collapse. 489 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 4: At the second level, you have like. 490 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 5: A command or core major, major and above, and these 491 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 5: I think since Operation ten twenty seven you've seen their 492 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 5: morale to drop. And I mean there's been the fall 493 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 5: of Latio and the loss of the Northeast Regional Command, 494 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 5: the first time in the Memors history that a regional 495 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 5: commands been taken that had sent shockways through the commander level. 496 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 5: The other thing is that min Onligne, the Commander in Chief, 497 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 5: in his attempt to consolidate power and protect himself from 498 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 5: from internal fragmentation, he's rotating commanders based on loyalty, not 499 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 5: based on effectiveness, which is also degrading the Memora Military's 500 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:35,440 Speaker 5: fighting capability. 501 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 4: But it's also that's maybe. 502 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 5: One reason why you haven't seen less acts of disloyalty 503 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 5: within that layer. 504 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 4: At the senior levels. 505 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 5: I mean mostly most of those senior Memorial military officials 506 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 5: who are based in Apida, I think they until the 507 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 5: fall of Lastio and the resistance moving into Mandalay, there 508 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 5: was relatively high levels of sense of security and morale 509 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 5: was was okay, I suppose, but the full of Lastio 510 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 5: and the ensuing events has really inflamed internal frustration from 511 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 5: what we understand so, and this has also triggered some 512 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 5: some shifts in the way in which the MEMR military 513 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 5: operates its patronage structures. 514 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 4: So traditionally the patriot in structure is essentially like a 515 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 4: feudal state. 516 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,199 Speaker 5: I mean you have like a commander in chief that 517 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 5: is extremely powerful, has authority to rotate or fire or 518 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 5: arrest virtually anyone. 519 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 4: I mean, just huge amounts of powers centralized there. 520 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 5: The deputy commander in chief has little capability to challenge 521 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 5: the commander in chief's authority. But then you have these 522 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 5: regional commanders that operate as feudal lords at the regional level. 523 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 5: They're able to extract huge amounts of value or wealth 524 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 5: through you know, attractive. 525 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 4: Industries, illegal industries, all with total impunity. 526 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 5: But often you know, with the approval of nipidal and 527 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 5: that approval was often just given. Now it's less it's 528 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 5: less easily given. I mean you've seen nineties senior officers shuffled, 529 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 5: changed positions since the coup, and fifty have been removed 530 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 5: or arrested by our tracking. And you've also seen individuals 531 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 5: detained and arrested. Because I think there's fifteen kernels or 532 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,479 Speaker 5: above mostly brigadier generals and major generals who have been 533 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 5: arrested for business related activities, which I think is emblematic 534 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 5: of the restructuring of the patronage network and centralizing the 535 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 5: patronage network with men Online himself. If you do not 536 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 5: have his personal approval, you cannot conduct business activities, including 537 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 5: these highly lucrative scam operations that are generating billions in 538 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 5: value but also really frustrating the Chinese. 539 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 4: So this whole patronage structure. 540 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 5: Which is critical to sustaining the Memora military, is being reoriented, 541 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 5: and we'll see whether or not that. 542 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 4: Helps sustain the institution or introduces more instability. 543 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 5: But ultimately, the forms of resilience I guess you would 544 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 5: call it are the one maybe you pointed to. I 545 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 5: mean their structure. I mean it's like rotating officer, commanders 546 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 5: and senior officers regularly holding families hostage. Essentially, you know, 547 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 5: a soldier sent to the front lines, its family remains 548 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 5: in the barracks. Payment is often made to the families, 549 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 5: not to the front line's soldier, and there's retribution if 550 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 5: the frontline soldier defects or deserts. This is also where 551 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 5: the fifty eight hundred number I mentioned earlier is likely 552 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 5: irradical undercounting because and also the fifteen thousand desertions because 553 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 5: a lot of people are recorded as KIA when they're. 554 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 4: Actually they've deserted or defected. 555 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 5: So anyways, I'm not sure if that answers your question, 556 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 5: which some thoughts relatives tosiliencia. 557 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 2: No, I think it does. 558 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, one of the guys I met, we've described basically 559 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 3: his entire I guess squad went out on a patrol 560 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 3: and defected. I guess the PDF have been I had 561 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: to describe it really, but it's basically shit talking them 562 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 3: in their barracks or like in the position for months 563 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 3: right there. 564 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 2: Like you see this a lot. It's a kind of. 565 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 3: Unique feature of the of the conflict in the MR 566 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 3: guys with megaphones, just being like, you can surrender if 567 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 3: you want. 568 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: You know, your life is miserable. 569 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 3: And I guess in this case it worked, And yeah, 570 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 3: they will be read to as KIA. They went out 571 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 3: in a patrol and never came back. 572 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, I guess the other dynamic is that, 573 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 5: like you need to align motivation and opportunity for defection 574 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 5: desertion and the motivation is there in a lot of cases, 575 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 5: but opportunity is not. You know. The resistance is committing 576 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 5: some resources to these efforts, but it's really limited given 577 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 5: the scale of the challenge. 578 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot. 579 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 5: Of factors that need to kind of come together, like 580 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 5: the ability to safely communicate with resistance, the ability to 581 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 5: move into resistance, all the areas of the perception that we. 582 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 4: Were accepted and not phase retribution. 583 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,240 Speaker 5: The perception there was that living conditions are acceptable to them. 584 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 4: You know. 585 00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 5: So there's all these conditions and given the call of 586 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 5: defection desertion which could be like major attribution against your family, 587 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 5: and deep uncertainty about leaving this institution that is kind 588 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 5: of a. 589 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 4: State within a state. 590 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 5: That's why we're not seeing the kind of large scale, 591 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 5: commander level defection desertion I think. 592 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 3: Right, So, one last thing I wanted to talk about 593 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 3: before we finish up. If people, I guess keep tabs 594 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 3: on the conflict, they would have seen recently a video 595 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 3: I'm sure you've seen the Kachin Independence Army shooting down 596 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,239 Speaker 3: in aircraft with an FN six Chinese man portaal air 597 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 3: defense system. It's what they sort of called manpads. I'm 598 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 3: sure women can carry them to just fine or anyone 599 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 3: else for that matter. But I think it happened in 600 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 3: January and the video has just come out. Can you 601 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 3: explain the significance of that within the conflict landscape? 602 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 2: And we am a yeah. 603 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 5: I guess there's a couple of points. One is about 604 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 5: China's posture and the other is about the military balance. 605 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 5: I think the Menomour military's air power is its primary 606 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 5: comparative advantage. I think this point it has fewer by 607 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 5: infantry forces than the resistance, but that it's heavy artillery 608 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 5: and especially it's air power. You know, that's how it 609 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 5: terrorizes the population. But it's also been a source of 610 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 5: It's been a very powerful mobilizing force. I mean, I 611 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 5: think after Phase one of ten twenty seven, the mmdaa 612 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 5: Ko Kong armed group, essentially it took back territory that 613 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 5: it proceeds to be their own and took the town 614 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 5: of Lau Kai, which was really surprising but a major advance. 615 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 5: And then everyone kind of perceived, Okay, they'll just stay 616 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 5: in the quote unquote Ko Kong areas, They'll stay where 617 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 5: they are. 618 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 4: But I think there's a deep perception. 619 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 5: Among the MDAA but also broader ethnic minority groups that 620 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,000 Speaker 5: as long as the MR Military is in power and 621 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 5: has air capability. 622 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 4: It will terrorize the public. 623 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 5: Even if it cannot reach or ever take back lau Kai, 624 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 5: it will vomit. And that's exactly what we saw after 625 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 5: ten twenty seven. You saw air strikes and Laukai. You 626 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 5: saw air strikes and lights of the headquarters of the 627 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 5: Kachin Independence Army. You see airstrikes in parts of her 628 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 5: kind state that the mem R Military has no chance 629 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 5: of recapturing. 630 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 4: You know, it's a terrorizing the pumbplic thing. 631 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a punitive thing. 632 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's punitive thing. So and it also is powerfully motivating. 633 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 5: It's like, okay, now you see the MNDA pushing all 634 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,359 Speaker 5: the way to Lascio, and a lot of people didn't 635 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 5: think they would do that. 636 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 4: But it's like, if you have a perception. 637 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 5: That this m R military can hurt me from a distance, 638 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 5: they may need to eliminate them altogether in order to 639 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,960 Speaker 5: achieve the level of stability and safety that they pursue. 640 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 4: So like it's the double edged sword in that regard. 641 00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 5: But going back to your question, I mean, think like 642 00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 5: if the resistance is capable of constraining the MR military's 643 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 5: air capability, it radically changes the balance of power. 644 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 4: I mean, I think there are. 645 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 5: Some elements of this that are been a primary focus 646 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 5: of some of the international human rights community, for example, 647 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,960 Speaker 5: constraining access to jet fuel and these sorts of things 648 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 5: trying to push right arms margo, none of which I've succeeded, 649 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 5: but there's been kind of progress on the margins. 650 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 4: Although I think we just saw Russia. 651 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 5: Delivered jet fuel and the maritime routes in Southern Mars. 652 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 3: So yeah, in exchange for the artillery shows that the 653 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,839 Speaker 3: Mamma has sent to Russia, right, Oh. 654 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 5: Okay, and realize okay, yeah, so I mean they're continued, 655 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 5: they're able to sustain that, and you know, and the 656 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 5: Chinese has sold i think six aircrafts last year, so yeah, 657 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 5: they still have this fighting capability, and they're still able 658 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 5: to extract foreign exchange essentially by stealing from exporters. But 659 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,919 Speaker 5: that's a whole different conversation. But anyway, like I think, yeah, 660 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,800 Speaker 5: this is a key dynamic if they're able to affect 661 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 5: their their air power. The other thing is that like 662 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 5: China is attempted to play both sides. I mean historically, 663 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,240 Speaker 5: that's sort of their approach. I mean, they have deep 664 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:56,320 Speaker 5: connections with armed organizations along its border, maybe closer even 665 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,320 Speaker 5: than with the VMW or military. But they also provide 666 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,080 Speaker 5: politically tuitimacy and material assistance to the Menmoral military. They 667 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 5: just actually signed an MU on law enforcement and security 668 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 5: or some sort with the military. That's a deep and 669 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 5: abiding relationship, in part because the Chinese don't see an alternative. 670 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,320 Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think they have much trust for 671 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 4: dan U G or other. 672 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 5: Resistance groups, and despite the fact that they don't, they 673 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,839 Speaker 5: don't also don't really trust the Memora military or perceed 674 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 5: them to be competent. They see them kind of as 675 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 5: their only potential partner in ipudot. But it's kind of 676 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 5: a question as to whether this strategy is still working 677 00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,359 Speaker 5: for them. I think we've seen lots of acts of 678 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 5: defiance from both sides, the meum Or military and resistance 679 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 5: groups visa China, I mean. 680 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,919 Speaker 4: The Man military. They've been pressuring. 681 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,359 Speaker 5: Them to hold elections for since the coup essentially, and 682 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,279 Speaker 5: they're really no closer yeah to that happening. I mean, 683 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 5: I think they dissolve the NLD something the Chinese said 684 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 5: not to do, and more recently, they've designated a number 685 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:04,760 Speaker 5: of resistance groups as terrorist organizations, which essentially obviates political negotiations, 686 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 5: which I think would certainly frustrate the Chinese, given that 687 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:12,319 Speaker 5: they hope to achieve stability through political ingratiations between a 688 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 5: subset of resistance groups and the Manama military. So there 689 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 5: are these kind of acts of defiance also on the 690 00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,879 Speaker 5: resistance side. I mean, the Chinese are pushing for ceasefires, 691 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,960 Speaker 5: and yet the resistance continues to push into the country, 692 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,760 Speaker 5: and they're sort of a perception that, like, as the 693 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 5: resistance groups aligned with China, quote unquote aligned with China, 694 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,920 Speaker 5: maybe they aren't a gain ascendency on the battlefield, in 695 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 5: particular that China's influenced gains. 696 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:40,799 Speaker 4: But I'm not sure whether that's the case. 697 00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,240 Speaker 5: It might actually be in verse, like, as these groups 698 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,440 Speaker 5: push into memmore and have more charitorial control, maybe they 699 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 5: have more options and they're less dependent on the Chinese. 700 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,720 Speaker 5: So that relationship in the north along the Chinese border 701 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 5: is also very much in flux. 702 00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,759 Speaker 4: I don't think it's clear exactly how that will play out. 703 00:37:58,080 --> 00:37:59,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's not, And I think that's sort of 704 00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 3: a big question that's overhanging. Obviously, you have actors that 705 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,080 Speaker 3: are more close your line with China, like the United 706 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:09,760 Speaker 3: Worst Date Army, who have sort of largely remained aloof 707 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,120 Speaker 3: from the conflict or a loof maybe it's your own word, 708 00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,400 Speaker 3: but are not like directly committing most of their forces 709 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,320 Speaker 3: to the Conflict's really a better way of saying it, right. 710 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so. 711 00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,680 Speaker 5: And now that there's a ton of pressure on them 712 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 5: to stop selling arms to other groups, So we'll see 713 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:25,560 Speaker 5: where there that happens. 714 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, which is probably where the Kaschin Independence Army was 715 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,120 Speaker 3: able to get the surface where missiles from, which brings 716 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,879 Speaker 3: us back to that. Yeah, it's it's never not complicated, 717 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,480 Speaker 3: but it's always very sad that, like the folks quit 718 00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:43,279 Speaker 3: in the middle of this are suffering horrendously and sometimes 719 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 3: suffering kind of out of sight and out of mind 720 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,400 Speaker 3: for so many people. As you know, a news cycle 721 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,319 Speaker 3: continues to kind of either trivialize or completely ignore what's 722 00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:57,200 Speaker 3: happening in me, amma, which is really sad. People often 723 00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 3: ask me like where they can find reliable news sources 724 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,359 Speaker 3: and where they can send them money if they want 725 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,000 Speaker 3: to help people in Mema. Do you have any good 726 00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:04,920 Speaker 3: suggestions for that? 727 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 5: Sure? Yeah, I mean I think for news, I guess 728 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,880 Speaker 5: for like day to day news like Fronter Memr is 729 00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 5: a fantastic source, as is Meanmar Now and the Irawadi. 730 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,319 Speaker 4: These are they have English. 731 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:22,280 Speaker 5: Language content that would be really interesting and accessible. My organization, 732 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,760 Speaker 5: the US in suit Piece. You can check out our website. 733 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,200 Speaker 5: We publish a lot of analytical work on there related 734 00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,319 Speaker 5: to the conflict. You're welcome to check there. I think 735 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,480 Speaker 5: there's a really good another podcast, it's really good, Insight MEMR, 736 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 5: that is worth checking out. Started as like a Buddhism 737 00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 5: oriented podcast talking about in Pasuma. Now its branched into 738 00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 5: a much broader range of issues. 739 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,440 Speaker 4: Some of the best stuff I've heard and actually affiliated with. 740 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,880 Speaker 5: INSIGHTEMMR is an organization called Beta Burma that provides humanitarian. 741 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 4: Assistance in one you could contribute to. 742 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,360 Speaker 5: There's an organization called Skills for Humanity that provides a 743 00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 5: lot of humanitarian systems on the ground. 744 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:00,560 Speaker 2: Ye and you. 745 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:04,200 Speaker 5: Mentioned Liberate the NMAR before we start recording. That can 746 00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:05,920 Speaker 5: also be a good support. 747 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:06,319 Speaker 2: Yeah. 748 00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think schools to humanity also accept maybe they 749 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,320 Speaker 3: accept direct I was speaking to them about like medical 750 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:16,360 Speaker 3: equipment that they needed. Yeah, they they accept direct donations 751 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,560 Speaker 3: or not. But people who want to volunteer medically, let's 752 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:20,520 Speaker 3: want to look out for. 753 00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was fantastic. Billy is there anyway? 754 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 3: And I think you else you'd like to plug like 755 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:29,000 Speaker 3: why people can follow you or us i P online. 756 00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,640 Speaker 4: Us i P dot org. Most of my writing is 757 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:32,000 Speaker 4: on there. 758 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:36,200 Speaker 5: I'm on Twitter, Twitter at b I L L e E, 759 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,000 Speaker 5: the number four, the letter D. But yeah, I mean 760 00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,680 Speaker 5: I checked those sources I mentioned. It's rather there's not 761 00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,960 Speaker 5: more kind of content in the mainstream media, but there's 762 00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,759 Speaker 5: there's a lot of really incredible reporting coming from the 763 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:54,200 Speaker 5: ground from people taking incredible risks to share information. So 764 00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,280 Speaker 5: encourage you to support some of those local outlets. 765 00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, including financially if you can. It's like they're 766 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,400 Speaker 3: doing the work that really needs to be done. 767 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:04,799 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your time. 768 00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 3: Thank you, James, and we appreciate you being our host. 769 00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:11,680 Speaker 2: Jeers It could. 770 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,080 Speaker 1: Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media from 771 00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,759 Speaker 1: one podcast from cool Zone Media. Visit our website folzonmedia 772 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,600 Speaker 1: dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 773 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,239 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Wherever you listen to podcasts, you can 774 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,600 Speaker 1: now find sources for it could happen here, listed directly 775 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,920 Speaker 1: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.