1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: Sweating. The sweat calculation is an interesting one, but like 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: it would go up when I'm in dance presence, Sweet 3 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: sweet sweat, sweat, sweat. This episode is brought to you 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: by Nadex, the Binary Options Exchange. Binary Options let you 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: let me your risk and trade stock in disese commodities 6 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: for x and more from a single account. Nat X 7 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: is a CFTC regulated exchange with transparency, free market data, 8 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: and fairness guaranteed. The future of trading is here now 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: at n A d e x, dot com futures options 10 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: and spots. Trading involves risk and may not be appropriate 11 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: for all investors. Hi, and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark, 12 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,200 Speaker 1: a podcast about the global economy. It is Thursday, January seven, 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: and I'm Tory Stillwell and economics reporter with Bloomberg News 14 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: in d C. And I am joined by my co 15 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: host Ao Today, our editor for Benchmark in Sanford, Cisco. Happy, Happy, 16 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: say pretty solid. I was in Atlanta. I got all 17 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: fancy for a wedding. Did it up real big? What 18 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: about you? I went skiing over Christmas, which was really fun. 19 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: We've been getting almost record snow I think in Tahoe. 20 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: So yeah, it was amazing. Um when we drove up there, 21 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: it was right after a big storm, so it was 22 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: some of the best skiing I've done in a long time. 23 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: Well with it being New Year's uh, I personally love resolutions. Yes, 24 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: I think that they're so much fun, even though I 25 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: don't really keep them all the time. They're nice, a 26 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: nice way to like center yourself into the new year. 27 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: But some people are like really cynical about them and 28 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: think they're a total waste of time. I'm usually in 29 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: that camp. Um, what's your what's your new New Year's 30 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: resolution this year? So? Uh, I like in years past, 31 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: I would always the first day just like make a 32 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: list of ten resolutions. But last year I took a 33 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: different tack that I'm also replicating again this year. And 34 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: that's where I like give up a bad habit or 35 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: something that I want to tweak a little bit every 36 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: single month. So this month is uh, sober January. I 37 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: will be giving up alcohol. It has been pretty miserable 38 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: so far, the one week that we've enjoyed so far 39 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: of January. Yeah, exactly. At least it's not February, which 40 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: is giving up Chipotle, which is a pretty sad month. 41 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: And also like the shortest month, so give myself a 42 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: little bit of a break there. What about you, what 43 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: are you doing for? What are your resolutions? Well, um, 44 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: this makes me sound like a complete lame San Francisco hippie, 45 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: but it is to meditate seven times a week. Um. 46 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: I used to meditate a lot more, but I've recently 47 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,679 Speaker 1: kind of fallen out of the habit, so I want 48 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: to redevelop this habit again. It's like one of those things, 49 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: you know, like running or anything else that's good for you. 50 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: I know it's good for me in the long run. Um, 51 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 1: and I'm really glad I did it once I did it, 52 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: but it's kind of hard for me to get myself 53 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: to do it beforehand. Yeah. Well, Twitter actually put out 54 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: a list this week of the most tweeted resolutions for 55 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: and let's see if any of ours made the list. 56 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: They are to get in shape is number one. Number 57 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: to eat healthier, three, be a better person, four, be nicer, 58 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: which seems kind of similar to number three. Number five, 59 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: learned something new, six, drink more water, seven be happy, Hey, 60 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: quit smoking, and I drink less alcohol. And to save money. Yeah, 61 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: so a little bit of overlap there, But as we 62 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: both know and have witnessed in our own lives. Resolutions 63 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: are pretty hard to keep, and when we fail, it 64 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: can be sometimes be expensive. Let's take that top resolution, 65 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: for example, to get in shape. So if we walk 66 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: through it. You want to get in shape, so you 67 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: get a gym membership, and that's roughly fifty dollars a 68 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: month more in some cities less than others. Uh. And 69 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: then you decide you also need to get a fresh 70 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: pair of kicks, so you spend like a hundred dollars 71 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: on a new pair of running shoes. You get new 72 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: workout clothes another hundred dollars. Maybe you want a fitbit 73 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 1: like you have, so that's another hundred dollars. Or do 74 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: you have an Apple Watch? Now have you upgraded? I 75 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 1: have a fit Bit and um, what's called the Basis 76 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: watch that tracks not just your continuous heart rate, but 77 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: also how much you're sweating and your surface body temperature sweating. 78 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: The sweat calculation is an interesting one. Yeah, it would 79 00:04:55,360 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 1: go up when I'm in dance presence sweat sweat, sweet sweat. Anyways, Okay, 80 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: so we we've we've we've spent all of our stuff 81 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: on getting in shape. But then say, we do all that, 82 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: and after a week or two, we get bored with 83 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: working out, We hate going to the the gym, a treadmill 84 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: is awful, and our commitment to the resolution fades and 85 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: we don't do it for the rest of the year. 86 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: That's like a thousand dollars over the course of a 87 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: year that we've wasted. Once you add all those things together, 88 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,679 Speaker 1: and when you multiply that by all the thousands, probably 89 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: millions of people that this happens to, you've got quite 90 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: a big cost of society there. Yeah. Well, you know, 91 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: lucky for us, there's now a growing body of research 92 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: in economics of all things, that helps you stick to 93 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: your resolutions. That's right, and beyond keeping us all from 94 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: needlessly blowing lots of money, Let's walk through what economics 95 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: has to do with keeping our resolutions and making you 96 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: meditate every day hockey. Well, you know, economics traditionally thought 97 00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: about people as these rational, disciplined asians constantly per suing 98 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: their self interest, kind of like robots, and in that universe, 99 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: everyone would deliver on their New year's resolutions. Right, But 100 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: we all know that these resolutions are incredibly hard to keep, 101 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: even if we want to stick to them, even if 102 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: we know in our heads that exercising more, or meditating more, 103 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: or calling our parents more is good for us in 104 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: the long run. So there's this rising part of economics 105 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: called behavioral economics that recognizes us for the irrational and 106 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: often undisciplined humans that we are. And they are now 107 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: all these researchers who study how our behavior deviates from 108 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: what would be the rational thing to do, and by 109 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: understanding all those quirks, we can come up with ways 110 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: to save us from ourselves. Exactly. For today's show, we 111 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: are going to distill the best research into seven different tricks, 112 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: and we have a great expert to guide us along 113 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 1: the way. Katie Milkman is a professor from the University 114 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania is Wharton Business School, and she is on 115 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: the frontier of this research on self control failures. Hello, Katie, Hi, 116 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. It's my pleasure 117 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: to be here. Thanks for having me, Katy. I. I 118 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: always thought New Year's resolutions were kind of this arbitrary thing, 119 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: but apparently there's actual evidence that the start of the 120 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: year is a great time to set these goals. Um, 121 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: can you tell us about your research into fresh starts. Absolutely. 122 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: I've spent some time with a couple of wonderful collaborators, 123 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: hanschen Die at Washington University in St. Louis and Jason 124 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: Reese's here with me at Wharton, thinking about fresh starts 125 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: and studying them. And what we found is that there 126 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: are these moments in our lives that feel like new beginnings, 127 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: and New Year's is one of them, but there are 128 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: lots of others. So the start of a new week, 129 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: or the beginning of a new month, or following a 130 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: birthday or holiday, a new baby that's right, having a 131 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: new baby, um, getting married or getting engaged, starting a 132 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: new jobs, starting at a new school would be other 133 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: moments that feel like the beginning of new cycles. And 134 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: at all of those times, we feel like we have 135 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: a clean slate and it's a great opportunity for us 136 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: to make changes in our lives. We have extra motivation. 137 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: And we've seen this play out in lots of different settings. 138 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: But a couple of my favorites are Google searches for 139 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: the term diet spike at these fresh chart moments, and 140 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: you can you can imagine why. In some cases it 141 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: might be that we behave badly before these fresh start 142 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: moments in some cases, but we see it also with 143 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: gym attendance and with goal setting. People set more goals 144 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: and that's in health relevant context and health irrelevant ones 145 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: like goals around finance and education at these fresh dart moments. Interesting. 146 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: Interesting is it that we set these goals at these 147 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: fresh start moments um more frequently or is it that 148 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: they're actually effective when we set these goals at these 149 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: particular times. It's a fantastic question. So our research is 150 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: focused on showing that people are more motivated, and so 151 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: we set the goals, but we also go to the 152 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: gym and so um, so people are executing more and 153 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: they're also planning more. So it seems to be a combination. 154 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: And of course, if you don't have a goal, and 155 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: if you don't start, you can't be effective. You gotta 156 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: start somewhere exactly. So that was our first strategy, to 157 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: use these memorable occasions as time to set new goals. UM. 158 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: Our second strategy here is what you have called temptation bundling. UM. 159 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: Can you talk to our listeners about what this is? 160 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: Absolutely this is one of my favorite tricks and I 161 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: devised it to trick myself actually, so I realized I 162 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: had two problems. Um, at the end of a long day, 163 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: I found that I really wasn't motivated enough to get 164 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: myself to the gym. It just sounded like a horrible 165 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: way to spend time, even though I knew I should 166 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: do it. And at the end of a long day, 167 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: I also found myself wanting to waste time binge watching 168 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: junk TV shows and reading what was your worst guilty 169 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: pleasure t V show? Oh? No, well, now I have 170 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: to insult someone, some producer. Um, let's see when I 171 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: struggle with. Now is scandal? I had a lot of 172 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: trouble with loss. Oh I love these shows. Gossip Girls 173 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: another one I've struggled with. But I should probably be 174 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: writing my next paper, working on on grading students or 175 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: helping doctoral students develop, rather than spending time watching these 176 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: TV shows at a rapid pace. So I have these 177 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: two problems, and I realized that perhaps I could actually 178 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 1: solve them simultaneously. What if I, for instance, only let 179 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: myself watch the next episode of my favorite low brow 180 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: TV show while I was exercising at the gym, I'd 181 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: stop wasting time at home watching those shows, and I'd 182 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: start craving trips to the gym to find out what 183 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: happened next. So I've done some research on this concept. 184 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: I call it temptation bundling. I've done it actually with 185 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 1: audio novels which I personally use. My favorite one ever 186 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: is The Hunger Games, which bundles beautifully with exercise. That's 187 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: great trilogy, lots of um cliffhangers which keep you coming 188 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: back for more craving the next trip to the gym. 189 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: And we found that not only is it an effective 190 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: means of increasing gym attendants to give people access to 191 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: tempting audio novels that they can only listen to when 192 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: working out, as opposed to giving them other equally valuable gifts, 193 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: but people actually value it. So one amazing thing that 194 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: we found is that at the end of our study, 195 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 1: people are actually willing to pay us for temptation bundling devices. 196 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,719 Speaker 1: That's what we call them. So people who owned iPods 197 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 1: that were loaded with tempting audio novels would actually pay 198 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: us to take away those iPods their own possessions unlock 199 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: them at the gym so they could only access the 200 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: tempting content while they were exercising. Wow, that's amazing and 201 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 1: that's not what traditional economics would predict, right, for people 202 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: to pay someone else to restrict their future options, that's right. 203 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: Traditional economic theory would say people shouldn't pay for that 204 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: kind of restriction, but we found about sixty percent of 205 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: people would pay for this type of restriction. Let's uh, 206 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and talked about our third strategy, which 207 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: is is related here is putting money on the line. 208 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: And you mentioned commitment devices. Act. I feel like you 209 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: told me about your experience with something along these lines 210 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: not too long ago, when you were here visiting me 211 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: in d C. Yeah, that's right. So about two years ago, 212 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: I was using this app that used a GPS tracker 213 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: to let you check into a gym or track your 214 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: runs outside. And so you you set this goal of 215 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: exercising let's say three times a week, and every week 216 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 1: you made your goal, you earned this small amount of money, 217 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: and every week you didn't make your goal, they automatically 218 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 1: deducted ten dollars from your bank account. So the fear 219 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: of losing this money really kept me going for a while. 220 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: It's a fantastic example of a commitment device, and there's 221 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: a lot of research showing that these are highly effective. 222 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 1: So any any situation where you're able to put money 223 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: on the line that you'll forfeit if you fail to 224 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: achieve your goal is called the commitment device. And this 225 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: is another situation where traditional economics would say, who would 226 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: ever do that? Why would you ever put money on 227 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: the line, Why would you want to punish yourself? But 228 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: self flagellation turns out to be really motivating, and so 229 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: there's some studies that have shown it is effective for 230 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: helping people lose weight if they can put money on 231 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: the line that they'll forfeit if they fail to lose weight. 232 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: In fact, one of my co authors and colleagues here 233 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: at Wharton, Kevin Volpe, has led one particularly impactful study 234 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: on that. There's also work showing it helps with smoking cessation. 235 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: So if you give people the opportunity to create an 236 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: account where they can put money that they'll forfeit if 237 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: they haven't successfully quit smoking in six months, that significantly 238 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: increases smoking cessation rates. So those are a couple of 239 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: important settings where it's been studied. And there's a great 240 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: website that I like to promote because I think it's 241 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: so fun and so effective called um stick dot com 242 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: S t I c K K two ks dot com 243 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: and you can go there and actually set up commitment 244 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: contract acts around any kind of goal that you hope 245 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: to achieve. You can put money on the line and 246 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 1: choose a referee who will report back to the site 247 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 1: about whether or not you've actually stuck to your guns 248 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: and achieved the goal, and you can do fun things 249 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: with the money. For instance, they have anti charities, so 250 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 1: they have charities that are on either side of contentious issues, like, 251 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: for instance, um the National Rifle Association versus a gun 252 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: control charitable organization. You can pick your poison which of 253 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: those would make you angrier to donate to, and then 254 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: so you'd allocate your money to whichever of those painful 255 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: and punishing. Well, let's take a short break for now 256 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: for a word from our sponsor, and when we get 257 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: back we'll go through smart strategies for how to keep 258 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: your New Year's resolutions. What do traders want to limit risk? 259 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: Access every opportunity and trade on a level playing field. 260 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: Nate x binary options let you set your maximum profit 261 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: and loss before the trade, so your risk is always limited. 262 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: Find opportunities in multip markets, stock in dissees, commodities, for 263 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: US even economic numbers and bitcoin, all from one account 264 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 1: and platform. Nat X is a CSTC regulated exchange with transparency, 265 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: free market data, and fairness guaranteed innovations of financial industry 266 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: needs and nat X already has. That's why we think 267 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: binary options are the future of trading, and it's here 268 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: now at n A d e X dot com futures 269 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: options and swaps. Trading involves risk and may not be 270 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: appropriate for all investors. So, Katie, our fourth strategy is 271 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: actually planned out the specifics of how you're going to 272 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: implement your plan. Can you tell us about this? Yeah? Absolutely. 273 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,479 Speaker 1: There's some really fantastic research out there on the importance 274 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: of having concrete if then plans to help you follow 275 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: throwing your goals. And really the leader in this work 276 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: as as someone named Peter Goldwitzer at n y U. 277 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: He's done dozens of studies showing how important it is 278 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: to have those if then plans. UM. But I've done 279 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: some follow up work my self on this, and so 280 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: I'll tell you about one of my own studies because 281 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: it's near and dear to me and also close to 282 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: top of mind UM right now. And that is a 283 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: study we did where We show that simply encouraging people 284 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: to write down the date and time when they intended 285 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: to engage in a healthy behavior. We looked at this 286 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: in the context of getting a flu shot was incredibly 287 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: effective at increasing follow through rates. And the idea here 288 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: is that when you have that kind of an if 289 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: then plan, you've thought through exactly the date and time 290 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: when you intend to follow through. First, you've made a 291 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: commitment to yourself, and and that is something that it's 292 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: uncomfortable to break. Lots of research has shown it's uncomfortable. 293 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 1: Not to follow through when we make commitments makes us 294 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: feel like flip floppers. Um. Second, you've thought more deeply 295 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: about it, so it's embedded more deeply in memory. And 296 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: you you've also associated a queue with follow through. So 297 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: if you've chosen a date and time, for instance, when 298 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: you'll get a flu shot, now, if you look at 299 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: your calendar and look at your watch and realize it's 300 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: that date and time, you're more likely to remember this 301 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: is what I said, I'd i'd follow through and get 302 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: my flu shot, for instance. It can also help us 303 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: anticipate obstacles along the way. So, for instance, if I 304 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: realized I want to get a flu shot on Friday 305 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: at noon, I might think, well, I better line up 306 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: childcare and come up with a transportation strategy and so 307 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: those things won't trip me up when Friday comes around 308 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: and I want to get that flu shot. I feel 309 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: like I'm really seeing the benefits of this one specifically. 310 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: So I'm running the Paris Marathon in April, and this 311 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: is my second marathon. I want to do better than 312 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,719 Speaker 1: the first one, and I had a training plan for 313 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: the first one, but I didn't adhere to it very 314 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: well and only ended up running like thirteen miles before 315 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: the marathon. So that was kind of a tragedy. But 316 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: did you make it? I did somehow. That's impressive. But 317 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: this time I obviously want to do a lot better. 318 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: So um, I am using the Nike Running app and 319 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: it has planned out every single day what I should 320 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: be doing up until the day of the marathon. And 321 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: it's been really nice because I get like a check 322 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: mark every single time it tracks a run. And I know, 323 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: like when I was thinking about what I was going 324 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 1: to do when I went home for Christmas and New Years, 325 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: for example, I knew it's going to be much harder 326 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: because I was going to be on a loser schedule, 327 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: but it was great to have those specific distances on 328 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: the specific days that I could just plan my whole 329 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 1: day around, even a week or two in advance. Yeah, 330 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: that's fantastic, And that sounds like that app is not 331 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: only taking advantages of advantage of the benefits of planning, 332 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 1: but also how powerful it can be to set goals 333 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: and have concrete, achievable but challenging goals that you set 334 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: up for yourself, and and having plans about how to 335 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: achieve those as them of critical importance as well. Well. 336 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 1: I think our fifth strategy here is related to what 337 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: not to do, which is to set up a backup plan. 338 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: Why can't we have a plan? B Katie. That's a 339 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 1: great question, and I wouldn't always say you shouldn't. Sometimes 340 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: you actually do want to plan. It's important to have 341 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: those in some contexts. But I've done some research with 342 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: a wonderful collaborator named g Haitian at the University of 343 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: Wisconsin who thought a lot about this when she was 344 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: uh finishing her doctoral program and she was thinking about 345 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: what she would do if she didn't get an academic 346 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: job and realized that if she made a backup plan 347 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: for herself. For instance, if she told herself, you know 348 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: it's gonna be okay, I'll just go work in industry 349 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: and I'll start looking for jobs at companies that might 350 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 1: be exciting, that might actually diminish her motivation to really 351 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: tackle all the things she needed to do to succeed 352 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 1: on the academic job market. So having a backup plan 353 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: or a fallback strategy in case your plan A fails 354 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: or go south. While it may reduce uncertainty and make 355 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: you feel better, it also may reduce your motivation to 356 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: achieve your primary goals. And we've shown that in a 357 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 1: bunch of our research together. That's right, So just thinking 358 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: about failure increases your chances of failure. It's not just 359 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: thinking about failure, it's just thinking about an alternative strategy 360 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: you would deploy in case of failure and doing that, 361 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: giving yourself that backup plan, giving yourself that cushion makes 362 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 1: you less motivated to tackle your primary goal. Amazing um. 363 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 1: Our sixth strategy here is to post your nears resolution 364 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,959 Speaker 1: on Twitter like we talked about earlier Tory, or on Facebook. 365 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 1: Katie tell us why this is effective, Absolutely well, it's 366 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,160 Speaker 1: it's simply a shaming strategy, right, So that turns out 367 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: making your goals public makes you feel a lot worse 368 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 1: about not following through. And there's some great work by 369 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: um Holland Beck and collaborators actually from the showing how 370 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: important it is to make your goals public and how 371 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: that motivates us to work harder. So if you put 372 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: it on Twitter, if you put it on Facebook, if 373 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 1: you tell your boss, someone who you really care about 374 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 1: thinking highly of you, and then know that they're going 375 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: to check up on you, you're much more likely to 376 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: follow through. That really increases motivation. And Katie, if all 377 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 1: these tricks still don't keep you on track and we 378 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 1: end up veering off, let's say around maybe mid March 379 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: is all hope lost? All hope is not lost. This 380 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 1: work we've done on the fresh start effects, as you 381 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: can find a new fresh start opportunity and start again. 382 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: And in fact, you might even think about reminding yourself 383 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: or your loved ones of dates that I feel like 384 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: fresh arts that they might have forgotten about. So we've 385 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: shown that reminding people, for instance, that March is the 386 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: first day of spring inspires renewed motivation and and encourages 387 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: people to start tackling their roles anew on that date. 388 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: So is that our seventh strategy. Seventh strategy is to 389 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:40,199 Speaker 1: go back to the first strategy when in doubt, start again, right, 390 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: start all over. Wonder I love it well, I'm setting 391 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: my calendar reminders now, Kitty, do you have any last 392 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: words of advice for listeners who are about to go 393 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: and implement all these tricks. One one piece of advice 394 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: is not to be disheartened for sure if you if 395 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: you fail. I think that almost all of us el 396 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 1: to achieve our goals, whether they're resolutions, made it New 397 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: Year's or some other time of year when we set 398 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: ambitious schools. But that's just part of the journey. And 399 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: you have to pick yourself up and try again, recognize 400 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: that there are new opportunities at every corner, and and 401 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: just don't let yourself, don't let yourself get down, keep 402 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: trying and keep trying these strategies and you'll get there. 403 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: And Katie, we would be totally remiss if we didn't 404 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: ask you what your resolutions were for the year. I 405 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: knew that was coming. And my husband, if he's listening, 406 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: will be very happy to hear that. Um My, my 407 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: big resolution is to stop checking email after nine pm 408 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 1: and just relax. Great one. Oh I like that one 409 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: a lot. We'll see how I do well. Thank you 410 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: so much for joining us, Kat, This has been great 411 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: and put all my strategies to work. A sap. Oh 412 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: my pleasure. Thanks again for having me. It's been It's 413 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: been a lot of fun and thanks to you all 414 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark. We'll be back next week. 415 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the bloom Burgs 416 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: terminal and Bloomberg dot Com, as well as on iTunes, podcast, Stitcher, 417 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: Google Play, et cetera. And while you're there, please take 418 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: a minute to rate and review the show. 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This episode was brought to you 435 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: by nate X. You know, any long term investment is 436 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 1: going to go through short term dips and price fluctuations. 437 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: Nate X Binary options that you turn those short term 438 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: movements into trading opportunities. You decide your maximum profit and 439 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: loss before each trade, so your risk is always limited. 440 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 1: Trade stock in diussees, commodities for X, even bitcoin, and 441 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: economic numbers, all from one account on a CFTC regulated 442 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: US exchange. 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