1 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:11,399 Speaker 1: It's that time, time, time, time, luck and load. The 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: Michael Very Show is on the air. 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: John Wards, from you A Senator John Cordon out of Texas, 4 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 2: the Republican says former President Donald Trump can't win the 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four general election. For President Cornyon saying, I 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 2: think President Trump's time is passing by. 7 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: Are you saying don't vote for Donald Trump? You know 8 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 1: it too important to. 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 3: Gamble. I do think it's very important that we have 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 3: a candidate who can win in twenty twenty four, and 11 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 3: I'm not sure President Trump is that candidate. 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 1: You've said that you think it's time for the Republican 13 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: Party to move on from President Trump. 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 4: You know, in politics, unless you can win an election, 15 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 4: you're pretty much irrelevant. 16 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 5: To The senator didn't say who he intends to support, 17 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 5: but he then double down on who he believes the 18 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 5: Republican Party should not nominate, and that is former President 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 5: Donald Trump born untold Fox twenty six. 20 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 6: He won't be supporting former President Trump, and neither should 21 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 6: all the Republics. 22 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 7: I can't tell you that I've worked with Senator Cornet, 23 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 7: who is up for re election, a number of times 24 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 7: on a number of pieces of legislation. He's actually not 25 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,639 Speaker 7: been the worst Republican that you can find in the Senate. 26 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 6: To be perfectly honest, I. 27 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 4: Know Republican voters, and as I said earlier, really it's 28 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 4: a question of who bothers to show up. If only 29 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 4: the most radical people show up in the primary, then 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 4: I think that's going to be analog. 31 00:01:46,520 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 6: Prob The song is. 32 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 8: Texas Senator John Cornyan to negotiate with Democrats to see 33 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 8: if there is a compromise to be reached. Cornan joins 34 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 8: a bipartisan group of senators who say they will work 35 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,119 Speaker 8: on the issue throughout the Memorial Day recess. 36 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 4: I expector will be an informed debate about reforms we 37 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 4: can make, and I look forward to participating in those discussions. 38 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 1: I've been working for more than. 39 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 9: Three years on a red flight statute that seems now 40 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 9: to have met its moment. 41 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: Senator John Cordon Conservative like you. 42 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 9: Drop the songs now, there are some Republicans, including former 43 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 9: President Trump, who are ripping this and ripping. 44 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: You as well. 45 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 10: The deal on gun control currently being structured and pushing 46 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 10: this about the radical left Democrats. But the help of 47 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 10: Mitch McConnell, Rhino Senator John corner in Texas and others 48 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 10: will go down in history. 49 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: Is the first step of the movement to take your 50 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: guns away. The wall, I have. 51 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 6: To tell you, Jucture is no. 52 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: I'm going to stop your llegal immigration wall is an immorality. 53 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 2: What we need is a virtual border filled giant wall 54 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 2: from sea to shining sea. 55 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 6: Makes no sense. What's what? 56 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 3: So? 57 00:03:32,639 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: So, it is election day in Texas with the primaries 58 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: that will choose the nominees who will face off in November. 59 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: We have a very interesting statewide race for the US 60 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:22,239 Speaker 1: Senate nomination for the Democrats. A white liberal named James 61 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: tallerco a black woman named Jasmine Crockett. She's a congressman, 62 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: he's a state rep. It's about a fifty to fifty 63 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: race the betting odds or that tall Rico wins. I 64 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: think there's a decent shot that Jasmine Crockett wins. I 65 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: don't normally make predictions because I don't find them to 66 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: be very interesting, but I will tell you where I 67 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: think there is a chance that something could happen. It 68 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: doesn't mean I predicted it will, but I think there's 69 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: a good chance that Jasmine Crockett manages to win the 70 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: Democrat nomine I hope she does, because she's a weaker 71 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: candidate to run against. 72 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 3: But there is. 73 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: It's all going to be a turnout battle. It's going 74 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: to be a question of turnout. And the Democrat primary 75 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: when you have a white liberal and a black candidate, 76 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: gets very, very interesting because race is everything to the Democrats. 77 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: And yeah, so we'll we'll, we'll wait and see. On 78 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: the Republican side, you've got a sitting senator in John Cornyn, 79 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: who is a four term senator, twenty four years. He's 80 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: been there. He has opposed Trump. Therefore, Trump has not 81 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: endorsed him. He has opposed the border wall, said he 82 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: supported it, that he didn't support it. He's on record 83 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: doing both. But most recently he now says, you know, 84 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: he's a big he's big for the border wall and 85 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 1: and for border protection because that will help him in 86 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: his election. Every six years we call him John Wayne mccornyan. 87 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: Every six years, this conservative Texan who's just like us emerges. 88 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: And look, we got primaries today in Arkansas and North Carolina. 89 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 1: These themes come up, these swamp creatures who who tell 90 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: us what we want to hear, then go off to 91 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: DC and screw the lobbyists and get paid by the 92 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: lobbyists and all these sorts of things. And then and 93 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 1: then when they're up for election every two years for congressman, 94 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: every six years for senators for senator, they come back 95 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: and they tell us their weathers again, and they do 96 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: the research to find out what turns us on, and 97 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 1: they tell us that, and it's so hard to beat 98 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: them because they've got the name idea, and they've got 99 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: the money that the swamp paid. Once you're in the club, 100 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: the swamp covers your bills and as long as you 101 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 1: do what the swamp wants. Now, if you don't do 102 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: what the swamp wants, they'll kick you out. But as 103 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: long as you do what the swamp wants, you've got 104 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: a career of it. So once you get in the club, 105 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: you're in. Well, Cornyn is the oh swamp creature. But 106 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: he's being challenged by our Attorney General Ken Paxton, who, 107 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: according to the polling, is leading in the race, Anne 108 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt, who's a relatively new congressman, but he's managed 109 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: to peel off some of that corning vote and so 110 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: it's very likely to be a runoff, could potentially could 111 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: potentially be a Paxton win without a runoff, but we 112 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: will see exactly that should be interesting. You've got Dan 113 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: Crenshaw who has managed to piss off apparently every Navy Seal, 114 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: every politician, the President. He's the only Republican incumbent running 115 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: for Congress in Texas that Donald Trump did not endorse 116 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: for reelection. So you've got some very very interesting elections 117 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: going on today. We're going to focus on Iran for 118 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: the next segment or two or so with our guest 119 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: Colonel Eric Navarro from the Middle East Forum. Will come 120 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: back to politics in the next hour, but just so 121 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: you know, we have not talked enough about Iran, and 122 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: we don't have any election updates yet per se because 123 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: that's going on today. So that's what's coming up. The 124 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: situation in Iran is very, very complicated, and a lot 125 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: of folks want to minimize or simplify that, but that 126 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: can't be done. It needs to be understood for what 127 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: exactly is going on and who the players are and 128 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: what is at stake, and that's not an easy thing 129 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 1: to do. We invite back to the program our expert 130 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: on Middle East matters. It's Colonel Eric Navarro, Director of 131 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: Military and Strategic Programs at the Middle East Forum. Seasoned 132 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: military officer, business leader, and national security strategists, two combat 133 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: tours in Iraq, training evolutions, technology initiatives, real world operations 134 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: around the world, fascinating perspectives, and it's an honor to 135 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: have him back. Colonel Navarro. Let's start with why now? 136 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: Why I strike Iran? 137 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 8: Now? 138 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 1: Why not? Wait? 139 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 3: Well, thanks for having me back. I think what happened 140 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 3: is this was a strategic opportunity that was presented to 141 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 3: both President Trump and then the Israelis. I don't think 142 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 3: it was originally planned. I believe that what happened is 143 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 3: during the Twelve day War and the strike. Even during 144 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 3: the twelve day War, there was an opportunity there. I 145 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: believe the President saw the amazing success the Israeli forces 146 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 3: had in decimating the Iranian air defenses and missiles and 147 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 3: leadership sites, command control sites, and that's when he decided 148 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 3: to strike the ford Al and other nuclear facilities to 149 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 3: strike a blow against Iran's nuclear program. So that was 150 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 3: one strategic opportunity that the President jumped down and sees. 151 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 3: That's what happens often in battle, you have a plan. 152 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 3: Obviously the enemy gets a vote. Then opportunities present themselves 153 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 3: on the battlefield, and if you don't seize them, they're 154 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 3: fleeting and you miss them and you may miss your 155 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 3: chance at ultimate victory. So here, based on the results 156 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 3: of the Twelve Day War and then the uprisings, the 157 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 3: popular uprisings in that country by the people that want 158 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 3: to take their country back, and then the subsequent you know, 159 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 3: suppression of those protests, that all created a started building 160 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 3: the conditions for the regime to be teetering on the 161 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:40,119 Speaker 3: brink right now. The US has been seeking to undermine 162 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 3: and pressure the regime to give up its nuclear ambitions, 163 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 3: to give up its funding and fueling of the regional 164 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 3: chaos through its proxies, and it's been unsuccessful. And that's 165 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 3: just because they they were committed to their own cause 166 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 3: of regional domination and securing a nuclear weapon to protect 167 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 3: their theocratic regime. Right. So, as these conditions have been 168 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 3: set for the regimes to be teetering, it presented yet 169 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,959 Speaker 3: another strategic opportunity to take advantage of. And I believe 170 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: that President and the Israelis, working in concert, understood the 171 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 3: gravity of the situation. This is twenty seven years in 172 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 3: the making, there are so many different advantages to being 173 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 3: able to take out this this terrorist regime that it 174 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 3: made sense to attack. Now. The other part, too, is 175 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 3: in its in its, and it's dying thros, the regime 176 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: is going to be more desperate and more flagrant about 177 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 3: their pursuit of weapons. I believe the latest briefing last 178 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 3: yesterday was talking about how they were already fart at 179 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 3: work rebuilding their ballistic missile stock files and pursuing the 180 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: nuclear weapons. So they were not going to stop. Uh 181 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 3: So it was time to actually take the fight to 182 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: them once and throw. 183 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: Colonel Navarro is our guest. I'm going to ask you 184 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: some very simple questions. I think. I think we tend 185 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: to speak on a very high level, and most public 186 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: conversations are that leave people behind that want of very 187 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: basic understanding of what's going on. And we shouldn't take 188 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: that for granted. The taxpayers pay for this, We staff 189 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: the worst. Let's talk about the dangers. What are the risks, 190 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: worst case and most likely case, because there are consequences 191 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,319 Speaker 1: to this. We've already seen loss of life for instance. 192 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's always risks in all these operations, and there's 193 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 3: always risk and strategic decision making. What you have to 194 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 3: do is weigh the benefits and the rewards of victory 195 00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 3: versus the risks to those operations or those decisions to 196 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 3: be lost of life. When we sign up, we all 197 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 3: know that that's the potential. In fact, I'm actually, I 198 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 3: don't know if an interest your audience, I'm actually going 199 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 3: back on active duty to support the efforts starting tomorrow. Yeah, 200 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 3: and that's just because again, what we all need to 201 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 3: do our part. We need to support the folks that 202 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 3: are down range and try to support and achieve ultimate victory. 203 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: Now, how does that so? What does the logistics is 204 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: that decision you make or you are asked to read? 205 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 1: What does that look like? 206 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 3: I offer to help. So I'm a reservist part of Marcent, 207 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:43,959 Speaker 3: which supports Sycome Right, and so I offered. The team 208 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 3: is busy twenty four hours a day, obviously supporting the 209 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 3: forces that are executing the mission, and so I volunteered 210 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 3: to come in and help assist however I can. And 211 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,359 Speaker 3: I would just say that that's kind of the ethos 212 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 3: that we all have. Those of us that served, they 213 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 3: are of us who have served. So it's not we're 214 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 3: not being put in harm's way willy nilly, or we 215 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 3: go in with our eyes wide open. We believe in 216 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 3: the mission, especially this one. This has some deep roots here. 217 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 3: We're talking again forty seven years. One of the first 218 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 3: acts of the Islamic regime was to take care of 219 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 3: people hostage. As a marine, I think personally we learn 220 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 3: about the Marine barracks bombings by Hesbelah, you know, the 221 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 3: Iranian proxy in the eighties, but also as an Iraq 222 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 3: war veteran, we had intel. We understood that the Iranians 223 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 3: were teaching and training Iraqi militias to develop and employ 224 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 3: what we call explosively formed penetrators, which are extremely deadly IEDs. 225 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 3: And I believe the numbers was at least six hundred 226 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 3: American troops were directly killed by these Iranian made id IDs. 227 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 3: So this was a threat for decades. And what I'll 228 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 3: be honestly, I'll be perfectly honest with your audience. I 229 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 3: don't know why it has taken up until President Trump 230 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 3: to finally do something decisive about this. For the longest time, 231 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 3: we have said this regime is a threat to regional 232 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 3: order and a direct threat to US personnel. Well, they 233 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 3: even tried to assassinate or were planning or plotting to 234 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 3: assassinate President Trump. So at what point do we say, Okay, 235 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 3: we must eliminate that threat. 236 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: You know, I don't. Let me see if I have 237 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: little world. Let me see if I have the audio handy. 238 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: If not, we'll have. In the next segment. In two 239 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, while she's running for president, Hillary Clinton says, 240 00:15:55,360 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: if she's president, there will be strikes on Iran. You 241 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: would attack Iran. It's just interesting. She goes on to 242 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: be Secretary of State for Barack Obama, who cut a 243 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: deal with them and sent palettes of cash. This has 244 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: been talked about for a very, very long time. We 245 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: have that audio, we'll play that. Coming up, our conversation 246 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: with Colonel Eric Navarro, director of Middle and Military and 247 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: Strategic Programs at the Middle East Forum. Allow me to 248 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: introduce myself. 249 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 3: My name is Mitch michael Berry, Genius. 250 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: Our guest is Colonel Eric Navarro, the director of Military 251 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: and Strategic Programs at the Middle East Forum, who will 252 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 1: go back active duty tomorrow in response to what's going 253 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 1: on in Iran, so putting his money where his mouth is, 254 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: putting his life on the line literally to serve his country. 255 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: And this effort. You asked sort of a rhetorical question, 256 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: Colonel Lavarrow. He said, I don't know why it's taken 257 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: till forty seven. Why does it take un till Trump 258 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: to do this, to strike Iran? Because in your opinion, 259 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: that's needed to have been done. This is Hillary Clinton 260 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: running for president in two thousand and eight, and I 261 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 1: want the. 262 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 11: Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will 263 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,719 Speaker 11: attack Iran. Whatever stage of development they might be in 264 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 11: their nuclear weapons program in the next ten years, during 265 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 11: which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, 266 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 11: we would be able to totally obliterate them. That's a 267 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 11: terrible thing to say, but those people who run Iran 268 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 11: need to understand that, because that perhaps will deter them 269 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 11: from doing something that would be reckless, foolish and tragic. 270 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: It's fascinating that's eighteen years ago. You go Reagan, who 271 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: I think really brought them to heal when he comes 272 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 1: into office. You know, they wait until Reagan has sworn 273 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: in to release the hostages because they feared that he 274 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: would attack. But you know, then you go into Bush 275 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 1: and Clinton, and Bush and Obama and then Trump and Biden, 276 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: and here we are Trump again. And it's interesting because 277 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 1: this has been a thorn in the side of our 278 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: country for a very long time, regardless someone's opinions of 279 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 1: Israel and Israel's relationship with them. If you just look 280 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: at American involvement in Iran and their effects on our 281 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 1: wars and our lives, it is sort of surprising that 282 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened until now. Do you have a reason 283 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 1: for that. 284 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 3: Well, it's long and complicated, but to put it, I'll 285 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 3: try to simplify it. We in this country for decades 286 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 3: have had a almost a week. When we fight wars, 287 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 3: we often have not fought to win them, and so 288 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 3: that has caused some of the complications in this For example, 289 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 3: the so called Forever Wars of Iraq and Afghanistan. We 290 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 3: won theil war right and then we lost the aftermath 291 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 3: because of planning or mission, mission expansion and whatnot. But 292 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 3: the point is, once you go in, you need to 293 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 3: go in to win right decisively at the strategic level 294 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 3: and crush the enemy. And until you crush the enemy, 295 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: what's going to happen is they'll keep reconstituting and coming back. 296 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 3: And that's the last several decades. That's exactly what has happened, right, 297 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,959 Speaker 3: So what we're seeing now is that president is willing 298 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 3: to learn the lessons of failed campaigns prior to his 299 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 3: time in office and apply those lessons, but also to 300 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 3: give clear objectives and then say we must achieve those 301 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:49,120 Speaker 3: objectives in order to finally end this conflict or end 302 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 3: this threat. And you heard that in his public comments 303 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 3: talking about we just we have to do it right. 304 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 3: This has been a long time in coming. We tried 305 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 3: to get a deal with them. I believe mister Wickoff 306 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 3: was on TV yesterday talking about one of the first 307 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 3: days that during these recently resumed talks, one of the 308 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 3: first days the Iranians came in and said, essentially, we're 309 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 3: still pursuing the program where we have enough to make 310 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 3: eleven nuclear weapons, and we're going to do it right. 311 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 3: Well again, when somebody tells you who they are over 312 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 3: and over and over again, you must accept it, and 313 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 3: if they're a threat, you must take them out. 314 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: Colonel Eric Navarro is our guests. I find it interesting 315 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: how many nations Iran has now hit. And obviously it 316 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: might appear that they're attacking Americans in hospitals, but they've managed, 317 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 1: you know, Jordan, Uae, Dubai. They've managed to make a 318 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: lot of enemies and do a lot of harm in 319 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 1: the Middle East. And I understand it's a complicated place. 320 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: This isn't Naser in fifty six trying to pull together 321 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: an Arab union. You have Shia and Sunni and the like. 322 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: But it does strike me that they're probably not making 323 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: any friends with their neighbors with strikes on countries that 324 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: might have been inclined to stay out. 325 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 3: Absolutely. But here's the thing. There's a couple of reasons 326 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 3: why this is happening. One on the ground level, most 327 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 3: of their leadership has been taken out, or a lot 328 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 3: of it. The command control nodes have been attacked and destroyed. 329 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 3: A lot of these launches are independent by the battery 330 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 3: commander or the on field commander that has probably old 331 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,199 Speaker 3: orders that he's trying to issue others. It seems like 332 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 3: it's just they're lashing out, almost like the death throes 333 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 3: of the regime. Right they're disconnected there. There doesn't seem 334 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 3: to be a specific military strategic objective with this, other 335 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 3: than to lash down and try to cause as much 336 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 3: pain as possible in the region, maybe force the US 337 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 3: in Israel to cut the campaign short of its final objective. 338 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 3: It's not going to work. But then on top of that, 339 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 3: this gives the lie to the fact that it's only 340 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 3: the US and Israel. Right, so there's reports that Prince 341 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 3: mbs from Saudi Arabia was pushing the president to safe 342 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 3: these actions. We have other allies in the region that 343 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 3: wanted this threat and understood this threat needed to be eliminated, 344 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 3: right and now with the direct action against these countries, 345 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 3: they're even more hardened to go against this Iranian threat. 346 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 3: So if this regime is able to be eliminated and 347 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 3: the Iranian people freed to take their country back, it 348 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 3: will have positive effects throughout the region, both for security, 349 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 3: for economic reasons, and then strategically, it will be a 350 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: huge blow to China and Russia's ambitions in the region. 351 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 3: And we haven't even talked about that, but there's in 352 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 3: great power competition taking this energy and technology exchange that 353 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 3: Russia and China get from, you know, the exporter of 354 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 3: Heed drones to Russia and the exporting of oil to China. 355 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 3: That's a huge blow to both of those countries and 356 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 3: they're obviously are primary strategic geopolitical threats. 357 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: Well, let's move to that subject. There are number of 358 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: things that I want to cover, but China's you know, 359 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 1: I think I read three to four percent of their 360 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: oil was coming from Venezuela, and you know, they had 361 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: boot they had they had folks on the ground, whatever 362 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: their capacity was just just before we attacked and pulled 363 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: Maduro out. But then Iran is something like six to 364 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: eight times the percentage of oil they get from from 365 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 1: the Straight of Horn moves and this is a big 366 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: blow to their economy. They're trying to move obviously to 367 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 1: electric as much as possible. But I got about a 368 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: minute and a half here, and then we can pick 369 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: it up in the next segment. Where do you see 370 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: China's role in this and potential involvement, whether it be diplomatic, military, economic, 371 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: or whatever else. 372 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 3: I think they're going to be standing by. I think 373 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 3: they're going to be shifting. If you notice, in both 374 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 3: Venezuela and Iran, when their proxies or their partner so 375 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 3: called partners come calling, they don't answer because they don't 376 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 3: want to get into a direct conflict with the US. 377 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 3: They view this as a long, long term issue where 378 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 3: they will become the global hegemon. Chinese look at it 379 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 3: through centuries. They think they had the long game, so 380 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 3: they will bide their time. But they're going to make 381 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 3: a mistake here. But they do not want to get 382 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 3: involved in any direct conflict, nor does Russia. I believe 383 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 3: there were phone calls made to Russia for support by 384 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 3: the Iranians, and the Russians gave them moral support and 385 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 3: nothing else. Right, So there's a lot of different complications 386 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 3: here or considerations by our adversaries, but at the end 387 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,640 Speaker 3: of the day, peace, true strength actually works, especially when 388 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 3: the strength is demonstrated at this level. 389 00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: Lieutenant, it's our Colonel Eric Navarro is our gasity, director 390 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,159 Speaker 1: of Military Strategic Programs at the Middle East Forum. We 391 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: will continue our conversation. I want to talk about Russia's role, 392 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: if any, into what extends commute. 393 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 3: Cattle. Cattle, I had a fine box. 394 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:22,199 Speaker 12: Und Michael Barry in the Colonal Eric Navarro, the director 395 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 12: of Military and Strategic Programs at the Middle East Forum, 396 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 12: is our guests. 397 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: We're talking about Iran and what this means for the world. Uh, 398 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: you know the stock market, I haven't checked it since 399 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 1: earlier today, but uh, it took a little it took 400 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 1: a little dive this morning. There is some panic off, 401 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 1: and there is panic at a time like this. I 402 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: spent some time with my financial advisors this afternoon talking 403 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 1: about you know, we talk ahead of time about these 404 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: sorts of things and afterwards, and panic tends to be 405 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: a temporary thing. I'm not giving anybody financial advice, just 406 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:55,239 Speaker 1: the way I approach it. 407 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:55,719 Speaker 3: There. 408 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: Uncertainty tends to make people very uncomfortable. But when people 409 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 1: start talking about World War three, they're typically not people 410 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: with the understanding of what that looks like or any 411 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: real experience or knowledge of it. They just panic, and 412 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: you know, sky's falling. World War three. Russia's involvement would 413 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: complicate things obviously, to what extent militarily economically do you 414 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,679 Speaker 1: see Russia involved in this? Potentially? 415 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to be involved at all. 416 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 3: They they are bogged down with the Ukraine fight. They're 417 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 3: not looking to get entangled in other fights. There's been 418 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,959 Speaker 3: no evidence that they're they're willing to go directly with 419 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 3: any US or Israeli forces in any way. They'll pay 420 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 3: lip service to supporting you know, their their partners in 421 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 3: Iran or Venezuela. But at the same time. There's some 422 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 3: signs that there may be movement on the Ukrainian front 423 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 3: as far as diplomatically as a result of these operations. 424 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 3: But I will say we're in there. We're still in 425 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 3: the early days of this, so things can go, you know, sideways. 426 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 3: So that's why I think, you know, we need to 427 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 3: be completely focused on achieving the actual objective here. What 428 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 3: is that? 429 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, what is the objective? 430 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 3: I think ultimately the objective is to destroy the Iranian 431 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 3: regime's ballistic missile program and nuclear weapons program, and its 432 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 3: ability to attack any of our forces in the region, 433 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 3: and its ability to suppress its own population. Now there's 434 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 3: a fine line between that and regime change. I think 435 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,919 Speaker 3: what the President and others have said is it's not 436 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: directly trying to do regime change, but it's setting the 437 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 3: conditions to allow the Uranian people to take over take 438 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:47,199 Speaker 3: back their country. 439 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I guess we're moving perhaps beyond your immediate 440 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 1: area of expertise, but to the extents you feel comfortable 441 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: talking about it. I am very concerned that we just 442 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: have a natural outpouring of democrat stability. We've not seen 443 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: that in Iraq or Libya or Egypt, or a number 444 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,400 Speaker 1: of other countries. I will tell you, I'm very concerned 445 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,360 Speaker 1: as to what democracy looks like in countries that may 446 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 1: not among the populace share our values. Just because somebody's 447 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: posting a Twitter video doesn't mean that you have stability 448 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: of you know, or a middle class. 449 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 3: You know. 450 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: A lot of Iranis that could have been a part 451 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 1: of a government have fled the country, And I just 452 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: wonder about the institutions capable of birthing and incubating a 453 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 1: democratic society. 454 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 3: Understood. But I'll be honest with you, it doesn't necessarily 455 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 3: have to be a democracy or a Western style democracy. 456 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 3: In fact, that's kind of the flaw in our post 457 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 3: war Iraq posture, trying to impose Jeffersonian democracy in a 458 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 3: country that had no institutions to support that. Right, what 459 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 3: we're looking for is stability and a regime that is 460 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 3: not a threat to the US, to our allies in 461 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 3: the region, to global order, right, that's first and foremost. 462 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 3: If it's a democracy, that's all the better because we 463 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 3: know how successful it could be and how we could 464 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 3: be allied with such a country. But I will say 465 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 3: also that the Iranian Revolution, you know, they're The Iranian 466 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 3: populace was very sophisticated and modern and they just felt 467 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 3: prey to you know, the revolutionary at least a part 468 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 3: of the populace taken up in the revolutionary spirit against 469 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 3: the show to be clear. 470 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: Uh, same with Lebanon, Same with a number of countries, Turkey, 471 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: you know, for periods of time when secularism was more 472 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 1: of the norm. But this sort of we call it 473 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 1: radical Islam, this more orthodox doctrinal Islam, has has tended 474 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: toward this type of tyrannical, oppressive government. We've seen that 475 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 1: in Pakistan, which shares the same cultures as India, other 476 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: than the religious, but you look at the difference between 477 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 1: life in Pakistan and life in India and it's dramatic. 478 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 1: We've seen this in Syria, which once was Damascus was 479 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: a place you would have you'd have been happy to visit. 480 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: It's sort of to me the difference between Havana pre 481 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: Castro and post Castro, where you get these sort of 482 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 1: tyrannical regimes, whether they be Communist or Muslim, whatever the 483 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: reason for the tyranny, and life just goes to hell. 484 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 1: And we've seen a wave of this over the last 485 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 1: four decades across the country, and it's sad for the 486 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 1: people who live there. So this really is a great opportunity. 487 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 3: Absolutely, and you're right, We've seen this around history. These 488 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 3: desk slots come in and immediately their popular population suffer. 489 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 3: I'm all for helping the Iranian people rebuild in a 490 00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 3: positive an economically viable way, but I will say the 491 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 3: first and foremost objective is to ensure that the threat 492 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 3: posed by the Mulas is eliminated is UH and the 493 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 3: region is not under their way or that their proxies 494 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 3: suffer as a result too. Don't forget about the remaining prosties, 495 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 3: especially the Houthis and Yemen, which is one of my 496 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 3: particular areas of focus. UH. They're going to still exist 497 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 3: even if this is fully successful in Iran, and so 498 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 3: they'll still have to be vigilance there. They'll still have 499 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 3: to be potential operations to strike an that would. 500 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: Concern you most, Colonel Vere What would concern you most 501 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,280 Speaker 1: in terms of sparking this thing and you know, the 502 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 1: fire exiting the pit and and and raging and becoming 503 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: more of what we would refer to as the World 504 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: War sort of thing. 505 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 3: Well, there's two parts to it. If this was the 506 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 3: most negative outcome would be that Iran was plunged into 507 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 3: a violent civil war between different factions buying for to 508 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 3: fill the power vacuum. And in that situation and in 509 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 3: that environment, if China or Iran were to get involved 510 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 3: to try to take advantage of it and shape events, 511 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 3: then that would be very concerning and something that we 512 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 3: got to deal with. But I will say I do 513 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 3: not think that that's going to happen, for a variety 514 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 3: of reasons. But for you know, again, peace to strength 515 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 3: is critical when that strength is demonstrated, right, It's not 516 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 3: just talking about it, right, it's actually demonstrating the capacity 517 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 3: to execute these operations in a route to the effective way, right, 518 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 3: the Maduro operation, Right, this operation, the initial days of 519 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 3: strikes to be able to essentially gain air supremacy in 520 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 3: twenty four hours and conduct operations continuously to continue to 521 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 3: attrit the adversaries in Iran. Right. Nobody is going to 522 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 3: see that and go oh, I want to get involved 523 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 3: in that. Right, And that's that's that goes all the 524 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 3: way back down to the schoolyard right with dealing with 525 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 3: schoolyard bullies, Right, you have to stand up to them. 526 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 3: Oftentimes you have to have to punch them in the face, 527 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 3: and that they still don't get that you got to 528 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 3: beat them up, right, And now that's that can be simplified, 529 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 3: overly simplified, but that's what happens. Here's the thing prior 530 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 3: to that. For too many decades, I want to go 531 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 3: back to this. Americans have gotten worked into thinking that 532 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 3: violence is always bad and war is always bad, and 533 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 3: that's just simply not the case. There are oftentimes throughout 534 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 3: history where violence actually solves problems, and that's what you're seeing. 535 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,480 Speaker 1: We could talk at lengths about the rule about the 536 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: tendency of where men and women look at conflict resolution differently, 537 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 1: but that would open a can of worms that I 538 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: will discuss at another time. Colonel Eric Namorrow, director of 539 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 1: Military's Take Strategic Programs they at the Middle East Forum, 540 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: who goes active duty tomorrow, good looks are and thank 541 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:00,959 Speaker 1: you for your service. 542 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 3: Thank you, m HM