WEBVTT - Investors Ready for FOMC and Campus Protests Intesify 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.959 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We could 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.680 talk of Rebecca Patterson of Bridgewater, and she's a long 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:56.959 garden leave right now we hop place to place. Yeah, 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:00.000 you know she's out on garden leave now. She's the Bridgewak. 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:03.800 She's the bestsemer, trust I know, the managing careful money. 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.600 But when I first met her she was hurting yen 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:12.320 in JP Morgan. She is expert on currency intervention. We 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:16.720 are on and just start strong this morning with Mss Patterson. Rebecca, 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.440 can you do a unilateral intervention where it works? Every 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.440 textbook I know? Iss, No, you can't. 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:26.319 The textbooks are right in this case. So Japan is 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.720 trying to slow the weakening yen trend, but I think 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.720 they know full well they can't turn the trend just 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.920 by intervening. They can spend a lot of money to 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:36.440 try to slow it down, but that's all they're going 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:38.720 to get. To have a real turn in a currency, 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.959 you need coordinated intervention. So you have to have several 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.240 countries working together, ideally including the US. That sends a 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.320 big signal, and you want policy moving in the same 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:50.960 direction as the intervention. So in this case, if they 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.440 want a stronger yen, they would need to be raising 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.560 interest rates by a lot more than what's currently expected 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:57.080 in the market. 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:00.280 What's so important here is a multi dimensionality. But the 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:04.000 simplistic media approaches. What about the FED? Forget about that, 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.320 they have to worry about the entire Pacific Rim. They're 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.799 getting a free launch right now with enhanced exports? Are 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:16.399 you going there this summer? Everybody else's I know told 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:16.760 me about it. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.240 I know a huge You can get a lot of 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:20.160 sushi right now. 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.560 What the censor is? There's a Pacific Rim impact? 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:25.160 What is it? 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:25.520 Right? 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.480 So a lot of these countries compete with each other 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:32.720 for the US, for Europe. So Japan going down puts 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:37.600 pressure on countries like South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, China 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.960 to also have weaker currency. So Korea is making a 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:44.120 lot of comments now that they're in some pain. Could 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:47.360 see intervention in other countries across Asia too, So they're 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:49.880 all going to be fighting against this trend, but it's 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:50.840 a fight they can't win. 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:54.919 So all right, Just keeping on top of that Japan story, 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:58.560 we think about the US exceptionalism from an economic perspective. 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.040 That's been the discussion over the last six to twelve 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.640 months here. How unusual is it that you have a 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.560 US economy growing at the rate it's growing versus China, 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.760 versus Europe. How unusual is that? And how do you 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:12.160 play that? 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.560 Well, it's not that unusual to see the US as 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:18.520 kind of the main engine of global growth. And when 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.760 that is the case, it is pretty normal that the 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:24.640 US equity market would be outperforming, that the dollar would 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.920 be strong because foreign capitals coming here to invest in 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:31.040 the US. US capital is staying here because it's more attractive. 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:33.960 What I think will be interesting as we look ahead 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:35.960 to this summer. You saw the news I'm sure, and 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:39.640 you've already reported on China this morning talking about having 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:44.400 a policy maker session in July talking about additional stimulus 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:48.520 elements probably before that, including rate cuts, et cetera. Can 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.680 they do enough so it's not one engine of growth, 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:55.520 it's multiple engines of growth. I'm skeptical. I don't think 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:57.320 they'll be able to pull it off, but they're going 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:58.280 to be given us more. 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:03.720 What does your PAS travails mean for American citizens? How 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:06.640 does it redound back to our listeners of viewers this 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:07.840 morning in America? 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:11.880 Well, again, the weak yen is a reflection of the 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:15.120 broadly strong dollar. The dollar is up against almost every 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:18.600 currency around the world ear to date, so you do 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:20.640 need to think about what does the strong dollar mean. 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.760 The strong dollar tends to be a pretty big headwind 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:27.839 for emerging market equities. So that's an area that already 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.599 has idiosyncratic risk around China, but now you have this 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.640 broad macro risk as well. The strong dollar is the 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.080 Fed's best friend. If the FED is trying to get 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.560 inflation back down to two percent. A strong dollar slows 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:44.560 down US growth by making our exports more expensive, less 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.919 competitive overseas. That tends to weigh on manufacturing, slowing growth, 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:53.200 disinflationary that helps the FED. So again back to intervention. 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.760 The FED doesn't want to help Japan here. The FED 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.680 wants a strong dollar, so it's good for getting inflation down, 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.440 it's bad for our exporters, and it's bad for anyone 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.039 looking at emerging markets right now for diversification. 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:09.440 Then what does our feeder reserve do tomorrow? We're going 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.520 to have Tom Tom and that surveillance team and they'll 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.839 be you know, full coverage tomorrow afternoon. But what do 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:16.359 we expect from our feeder reserve tomorrow. 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:18.920 I definitely think you could have a BINGO card ready 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:24.560 with words like more confidence, words like patience. I think 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:26.880 obviously they're going to be on hold. They're going to 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:29.240 want to see a couple months of inflation coming back 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:32.960 down after these three months of sticky numbers. But I 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.599 do think we'll get more chatter about what they're doing 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:39.279 with their balance sheet and slowing down QT and I 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:42.559 think that could be at the margin, something that helps 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.280 take some of the upward pressure off us heels at 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.360 the long end. And it also could take a little 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:51.280 pressure off some of the regional banks because they tend 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:53.440 to get hit harder by what's going on with you? 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.480 Elk, So let me ask you a best of your question, 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:58.520 and that we're in a bull market. Some would say 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:02.000 it's a second leg ofable market. What is your wisdom 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.280 for people that have missed the boat leaving the duck 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:07.599 you got to get back on? Do you load the 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:11.520 boat on Amazon this afternoon? How do you don't tell 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.280 me you're going to dollar cost average in none on 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:14.720 the patients for that? I'm wave on. 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.840 If someone handed me a big check today and I 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:20.280 had to figure out what do I do with it? 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:24.239 Do I stay on the sidelines? Do I invest? Because 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:27.560 equity markets go up eight years out of ten on average, 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.960 if the economy is growing, if there's earnings coming through, 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.960 equities tend to benefit from that. It's pretty common sense. 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:37.039 So I would be getting into the equity market even here, 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:39.920 even at these valuations. I would not just be loading 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.400 up on the magnificent whatever number you want to use, 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:46.680 six seven four, But I would probably look for diversified 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:50.479 exposure to the US market, overweight the US, maybe some 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.560 exposure to Japan as well. I think they can keep 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:57.040 riding this a while longer and then interesting with fixed 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.800 income you know US bond yields are rising, it's hurting 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:03.400 those returns. You can buy a nine month treasury right 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:07.680 now for almost five percent. You hold it through maturity, 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:09.400 so you know you're going to get that, You're not 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:11.520 going to lose value, and it gets you through the election. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:13.280 So if we have any. 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:17.000 Wonky little happenings around the election, you know you're going 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.680 to get that return to me. That would be some diversification. 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.920 I also think gold is a good thing to have 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:24.320 here for diversification, even at these levels. 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:26.520 We're out of time. Can you come back and go 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:27.400 Gator a on us? 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:28.280 I would love to go. 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:32.160 She live Gator, but as a child she was all Gator. 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:35.640 Her father major Gator. Oh okay, you know so we'll 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:39.000 Rebecca Patterson, thank you so much. Thank you for joining 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.480 us today, particularly careful discussion of again, you have to 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.680 get up out of that chair because John Tucker's he says, 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.240 I know, Michael Barr and I got to come in, 0:07:49.960 --> 0:08:02.880 so think Rebecca, thank you, good to see you. George 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:06.440 Kankalvas joins right now. We're on Apple car Play, on YouTube, 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:09.680 search Bloomberg Podcasts out there. There's a live chat. It's 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.320 sort of people are waking up Whitefish, Montana. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.600 Oh do you think they fish out there? I'm guessing 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:16.400 they fish. 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:20.480 Whitefish, Montana. Life is tough. Good morning in Whitefish, Montana. 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:23.679 Good morning. Is George conkalvas As well, head of macro 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.560 strategy at MUFG. That's a Japanese firm, and I think 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.240 it would be more than inappropriate to talk to mister 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.920 Gounkalas about yen that is between the major banks and 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.880 the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. George, 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:39.960 the challenge is that companies are having. Is it just 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:44.240 because after inflation the real yield is two point two 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.800 one percent? Does that just make it harder to do business? 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:51.520 Good morning, Tom, Good morning everyone. Good to be honest 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.480 with your listeners. I do think that there's a number 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.800 of things working. Yes, real rates do matter. In general, 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:01.440 rates matter. Overall, we're starting to feel the full brunt 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:05.120 of these higher debt servicing costs, especially for the more 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:08.640 smaller mid sized businesses, but even for the large corporates 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:12.320 that really uh, those that had pricing powers. Some still do. 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:16.120 But as you've been reporting all morning long, Coca Cola, Yeah, 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:17.960 even if yeah, if you have pricing power. You can 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.599 kind of pass it through, but everyone else isn't to 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.120 realize that you can't just pass it through. So you're 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.240 losing your earnings momentum that we have for the last 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:27.880 three years. So inflation helped in many ways kind of 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.280 to mask that, lifted all boats in a very odd 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:32.800 way for earnings. And now the real costs with the 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.320 FED raising rates as much as they did, real rates 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:36.600 matter and they start to bite now. 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:41.480 So George here, we're probably roughly halfway through earnings here 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:43.680 for the S and P five hundred this cycle. Any 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:45.959 takeaways here, because again, like as Thomas calling a for 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.720 Coca Cola, some companies still have a lot of pricing 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:49.360 power out there. 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:54.520 Yeah, and look, the same sort of repeat story around tech. 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:57.560 We get misses here and there, but by and large 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:01.480 it texts another area that's lot of pricing power and 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.440 low overall kind of service costs. So yeah, I feel 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.880 like we haven't seen a real new trend forming, but 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:12.080 it's building upon the idea that we're we're on the 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.880 on the other side of almost going back to the 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.200 pre twenty twenties, if I can kind of say that, 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:18.720 I mean back to the way things used to be 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:19.920 where it's gonna be. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.960 Those with power and now, folks, we descend the cone 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:26.440 of silence, just like Get Smart years ago. Because there's 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:29.240 a FED meeting tomorrow, George can gov us. What is 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:31.960 Powell not going to say at the FED meeting? 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:39.560 Well, we think that he will avoid saying that hikes 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.400 are on the table, that there there anything goes, or 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:46.520 that policy can be adjusted both up and down. We 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:48.800 think he'll try to avoid doing that, although I wouldn't 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.280 be surprised if the Press Corps tries to ask him. 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:55.160 And Mike McKee would ask him, is it a possibility, 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.920 as Lindsey Piggs, as Stephel says, as you really should 0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:59.720 raise rates, that's not gonna happen. 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.360 Joy which that's not gonna happen. I mean, if I'd 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.000 rather stay on hold for longer then end up let's 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:07.400 say that we do get a slow down in the 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:09.719 economy the next six months to a year, they will 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.320 end up owning it for hiking last minute. So they'd 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.200 rather just do nothing to stay on hole for longer. 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:22.800 Tomorrow, Pharaoh Bramo in myself the FED deicides we return. 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:26.000 This is part of my eighty hundred page agreement of course, 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.880 most of it's on the food court. But with the 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.000 FED decides tomorrow, we look forward to that. You will 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:34.840 see that out on YouTube Live Bloomberg Podcast, that's a 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:37.800 good place to see this is on YouTube tomorrow. The 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:39.400 FED deicides at one thirty Paul. 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.600 So, George, what do you what are you thinking about here? 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.559 Because we're gonna have the FED either holding rates or 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.320 at some point later in near cutting rates. We have 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:52.360 the European banks probably cutting rates. Here Where do we 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.760 go here? I mean, are you kind of leaning more 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:58.600 towards you know, equities fixed income? Where do you think 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.000 the opportunities are for the next six to twelve months. 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:03.880 I think buying the dips, buying the dips and have 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.760 to be significant dips in fixed income, and we're starting 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.960 to get there. I mean, look, the dollar can be 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.240 the wrecking ball if you get the ECB going one 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.199 way and the FED going the other way, and Bank 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:16.839 of Japan is reluctant to raise rates. I mean, we 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.200 really have like a dollar is the only game in town. 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:21.600 And and when the dollar strengthens it causes issues around 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:25.120 the world for both corporates that translate back earnings and 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.200 a number of other things. In terms of dollar liquidity. 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:29.439 So I'm really focusing on the dollar and the ten 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.280 year treasury. Those are the two most important indicators. I 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:36.040 mean oil as a kind of third, distant third, but 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:37.560 but it's a dollar in the ten year. If the 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:39.959 tenure makes a run above four seventy five and doesn't 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.160 slow down, that's going to hurt equities and might be 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:43.640 buying opportunity for bonds. 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.600 Tomorrow with the Fed, is a two year of value 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.680 to watch? We have the sweeny five percent level right 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.760 now four point ninety seven percent. Is it valid to 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.359 use the two year, George Congalvas? Is it FED barometer? 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:00.200 You could always use a two year, But I think 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.240 that they've now like almost what they did last year 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:06.440 around August September October when we last spoke about these things. 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.880 The bear steep in her and the long term rates 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.480 will matter more because we've had rates under the FED 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.640 funds from all this period, So the thing year won't 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.040 matter as much. It's going to be if the ten 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:17.040 years's moving more. 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.559 Okay, George, thank you so much. Georg Kankovas with his 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:29.680 MUFG greatly greatly appreciate that we do economics, finance, investment 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:33.800 in international relations. We do politics. We've tried to stay 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.360 away from some of the Washington story. Everyone just covering it, 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:42.120 covering it, covering it, including an encyclopedic. Now it's Laura Davison. 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.240 She spoiled the short straw right now, and we have 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.360 to ask her about this breaking news of the former 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.480 president of the United States, Donald Trump. And let me 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:54.960 quote exactly Donald Trump. This is our Patricia Hurtado, who's 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:59.439 incredibly experienced. Donald Trump was found in contempt to court 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:02.960 and find nine thousand after New York judge overseeing his 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:07.520 criminal hush money case ruled. The former president repeatedly blasted 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:11.280 key trial witnesses and social media and violation of a 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.320 gag order. Laurie, I know you're unprepared for this and 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.640 not writ in, but at the same time you followed 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:20.600 it tick by tick. What are the political ramifications to 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.720 the former president? Does this help him or hinder him? 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.080 To have this contempt of court? 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:31.800 This really shows that the judge is, you know, not 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.080 afraid to kind of follow up on what she said. 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:37.840 The punishment might be so this, you know, Trump, whenever 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.280 he is punished in some way, whether it's an indictment, 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:42.680 this case, he's able to fundraise off of it and 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.560 bring in some money. However, politically, whether this you know, 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:48.520 helps him more broadly, you know, a kind of an 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.240 electoral sense that still remains to be seen. You know, 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.120 we could start to see indications here that the judge 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:55.880 is not going to rule in Trump's favor, and we 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.320 know that if Trump is convicted, a majority of swing 0:14:58.360 --> 0:14:59.880 state voters say they won't vote for him. 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:04.560 The exhausting news flow that's out there, are people like 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:09.600 you within the Beltway. Are they transfixed by these trials 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:13.160 or are they separate from other major political issues. 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.200 I think that right now the trial is the is 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.200 the main political issue for Trump. You know, it's basically 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.800 how he's campaigning. He's in court most days. He's you know, 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.400 making this part of a key part of his campaign strategy. 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.640 All these appearances he's done around New York. You know, 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:29.680 we'll see him on the campaign trail out in the 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:32.080 battleground states tomorrow for the first time in several weeks. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.760 So he's going to Michigan and Wisconsin. But even there 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.280 he's talking a lot about these trials, right you know, 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:38.960 calling him the witch hunt, that sort of thing, and 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:39.480 Paul I. 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.000 Was struck this week, and I believe it was to 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.120 see him meeting with Governor DeSantis down in Florida. I mean, 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:46.160 think about it. The guy's working three or four days 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.200 up here. We see it with midtown traffic, frike tower 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.760 locked up where he's living, I assume, and then he 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.480 you know, he's working the weekend down in Florida. It's remarkable. 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:58.920 Yeah, absolutely so, Lauren, let's talk about what's happening in 0:15:58.960 --> 0:15:59.440 the Middle East. 0:15:59.480 --> 0:15:59.560 Here. 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:01.800 We have Second Harry Blincoln, I guess, back in the 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:05.800 Middle East trying to broker some type of negotiation here. 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.480 What's the feeling with they need administration as to the 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.240 role it can play and how this might play out 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:13.400 over the coming days and weeks. 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:17.000 So the administration is hopeful that a deal is coming together. 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.000 You know, they've been, you know, sort of pushing for this. 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:20.640 You know, we heard yesterday you know, blink and talk 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.440 about how you know, it's really just up to Hamas 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.760 to accept this deal. You know. The idea here is 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:27.240 that there would be a long ceasefire, you know, a 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:30.080 hostage deal, and it would really turn down the temperature 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.520 on what is both you know, a been a major 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:34.440 problem for the administration, and both have broad as well 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:37.320 as domestically, as the protest on college campuses have really 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.520 rammed up and become both a with a political problem 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:41.880 for them as well as you know, kind of a 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:43.880 crisis on some of these campuses as they're dealing with 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.480 you know, how to go about, you know, handling the 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.840 protest and you know, how to discipline students. 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.160 So, have we heard anything from the administration about some 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.480 of these protests on the college campuses. I mean, it's 0:16:56.520 --> 0:17:00.880 it's obviously a very fluid situation and strong feelings on 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:03.840 both sides, But if we heard anything from the administration 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:07.560 and is there any sense that maybe impacting their strategy. 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.760 The administration has been quite quiet about this. You know, 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.920 we've heard you know, Biden say that you know that 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.240 that you know, anti Semitism as bad and students, you know, 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:18.760 should you know, be refraining from that sort of rhetoric 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:24.480 and pushing back on some of these things. However, the 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:26.760 campaign has kind of, you know privately been saying, look, 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:29.560 you know, this isn't really going to affect our you know, 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.320 electoral chances. People put on the economy, not on board policy, 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.080 and they're not saying this is a big drag on them, 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:34.600 comfort ball. 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:35.119 Laura. 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:36.960 One find of question. We know you got to go 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.960 to Breaking News. What how did the president do with 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.639 the White House Correspondence dinner. What was the grade score 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.760 that you and others would give him of this inside 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:46.600 Washington event. 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:49.800 You know, this was really uh, you know, a sort 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.800 of his next big speech, you know, kind of after 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:54.920 you at least kind of for the general audience, after 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.119 the State Union. And you know, he started out, you know, 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:01.320 you know, cracking jokes, making of a Trump, of Colin Jose, 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.879 of the press, but then pivoting into this more serious 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:08.280 message about democracy and you know that perceived dangerous that 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.639 that Trump poses. You know, for him, it was a 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.760 good night, less so for Colin Jos who was more 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:15.400 roasted and criticized for his performance. 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:18.200 Laura, Well, let's you go to Breaking News, Lord Davidson 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:21.280 in Washington with our team here and again to get 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.240 to that news. Let me get it up here exactly, Paul, 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.560 I'm remiss not to have it up. The former president 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:29.000 of the United States, Donald Trump, finned nine thousand dollars 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:32.160 for violating gag order in a hush money trial. 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:51.840 That from Patricia Hurtado. 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.919 On the front pages today. It's an active front pages 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.639 because Lisa is back. What do we approve yesterday? Lisa 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:51.920 John Tucker is no Lisa Matayo. 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:52.560 What do you got? 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:54.359 We got a lot in store for you. 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:57.680 First of all, Comcast NBC Universal, they really want to 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.280 get into NBA games. They're willing to offer big Bucks 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.359 two and a half billion dollars a year to air 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:05.879 a package of NBA games, So they really want to 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:08.920 get into this playoff, regular season games. They'd appear in 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:12.040 NBC as well as their peacock streaming service. 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:14.440 Warner brother Discovery. They're really fighting to keep those rights. 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:15.119 They want to keep them. 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:15.880 Your real house. 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:20.320 Warner Brothers Discovery TNT has had the NBA for decades. 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:22.320 I mean, so they haven't really built up a nice, 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.480 nice franchise here, but it's gonna and I think they're 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.359 gonna have right of first refusal here. But Comcast Universal 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:29.880 is making a big bid to kind of get into 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.240 the NBA because my my questions. I can't wait to 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.800 see what the w NBA rights go for now to 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.560 Kaylan Clark and all that kind of stuff. Now they're 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.240 under a longer term contract, but I think the WNBA 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:41.719 may try to come back and renegotiate. 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.280 Why are they doing ity bitty moves. Why don't they 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:46.240 just come in and say, we have ka jillions of 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.520 dollars we want to do in Comcast streamers. 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:53.280 Streamers. Yeah, yeah, they haven't had You're exactly right, Tom, 0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:57.159 they haven't really jumped in full force yet into programming. 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.920 But you know, most expectations that are in the NFL, 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:03.439 which has the big, big price tags, a lot of 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:05.280 that is going to go streaming over the next five 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:05.960