Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into BP NFL. We sit on
Speaker 1: the precipice of week ten of the NFL season, which
Speaker 1: means it's time to give you our best bets.
Speaker 2: I'm your Hosteth Wilcock, sitting.
Speaker 1: In for Joey p that unfortunately needs no Italian references
Speaker 1: on today's show, but we do have a full cast
Speaker 1: with some pretty sick heads that led us as well.
Speaker 1: I'm joined by the Undertaker Andrew Rickson, who I met
Speaker 1: this summer in person for the first time, and I
Speaker 1: gotta say the dude's more jack.
Speaker 2: Than you would think. What's uf Ericson?
Speaker 1: Thanks for taking time out of crushing creatine and lifting
Speaker 1: to join us today.
Speaker 3: Oh what an intro.
Speaker 4: I can go grab some reganow if we need get
Speaker 4: The Italian juice is following, but Seth happy to have
Speaker 4: you on here.
Speaker 3: Excited to break down Week ten.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be fun awesome.
Speaker 1: I'm also joined by a man who will be making
Speaker 1: breakfast early Sunday morning as he takes in his giants
Speaker 1: overseas in Germany, Treel Furman Junior.
Speaker 5: What's good, boss, oh Man? I mean the Italian references.
Speaker 5: I'm glad they're getting rid of Italians, like the Giants
Speaker 5: have gotten rid of Tommy Debido and they just said
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones is going to be the guy. And so
Speaker 5: this show and Giants two organizations that do hate Italians
Speaker 5: and not giving them the love that they need this
Speaker 5: week because Tommy DeVito probably should be starting over Daniel Jones.
Speaker 5: Drew Locke should be starting over, honestly, Anthony Richardson should
Speaker 5: be starting over Daniel Jones. Bryce Young should be starting
Speaker 5: over Daniel Jones. Everybody should be starting over Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: Maybe you should be starting over Daniel Jones as well.
Speaker 5: I'll bet you will win a game. We would have
Speaker 5: bet the Commanders if I started.
Speaker 1: The outline for today's program looks like this. We'll get
Speaker 1: to the Gentleman's top ats and Total Picks. Will also
Speaker 1: give you my Upset special and Parlay of the Week.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be glorious. Thanks for everyone tuning in. The
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Speaker 1: on the upgrade screen. All right, and let's go ahead
Speaker 1: and jump into the picks. Tarl, I want to start
Speaker 1: with you. You're expecting maybe a bounce back from the
Speaker 1: Saints after Dennis Allen is out.
Speaker 5: Okay, I'll admit I would love to stray together multiple
Speaker 5: really good weeks. And last week the Saints pick was,
Speaker 5: in hindsight, not a good pick in hindsight, all the
Speaker 5: favorites one except the Saints. Nonetheless, Dennis Allen got canned.
Speaker 5: And I mean, this is the ultimate get up spot.
Speaker 5: You got the head coach that has gone, You're bringing
Speaker 5: in somebody new. And also I was listening to a
Speaker 5: podcast and one of the offensive linemen I forgot his name,
Speaker 5: but last year for the New Orleans Saints talking about
Speaker 5: how Dennis Allen lost the locker room last year when
Speaker 5: they played guess who the Atlanta foulks. And they were
Speaker 5: killing them and they wanted to get Jamal Williams his
Speaker 5: first touchdown of the season, and they did, and Dennis
Speaker 5: Allen did not have their back. He started copping please.
Speaker 5: He started telling Arthur Smith that he by in the way.
Speaker 5: Arthur Smith a coach that got fired, a coach that
Speaker 5: got fired. He was trying to go over there and
Speaker 5: be like, hey man, hey man, I'm sorry about that.
Speaker 5: I really do mean to faure all that. No, he
Speaker 5: lost the locker room. The locker room is then lost
Speaker 5: all season. If I told you to bet the Saints
Speaker 5: before this, I am sorry, but I'm telling you right
Speaker 5: now plus three and a half, the game after Dennis
Speaker 5: Smith against this Falcons team that I've been telling you
Speaker 5: all year is not legit, that they are not legit.
Speaker 5: They're one hundred percent getting up for this game. I
Speaker 5: think that they're gonna be able to tack the secondary.
Speaker 5: Derek Carr will look competent, and they're gonna be able
Speaker 5: to run the football on this Falcons front. But the
Speaker 5: biggest thing is that matchup with the secondary, because the
Speaker 5: Falcons have zero pass rush. I think the Saints defense
Speaker 5: still can get to Kirk Cousins and rattle Kirk Cousins here.
Speaker 5: But there's nobody on the Falcons side of the ball
Speaker 5: that's really gonna give a consistent threat to this Saints
Speaker 5: team in terms of a pass rush. They haven't done
Speaker 5: it all season. So I like the Saints. I think
Speaker 5: they easily covered at three and a half. I think
Speaker 5: the money line is a play as well. I think
Speaker 5: this is the game after the game, and they get
Speaker 5: it done with the with the new head coach against
Speaker 5: the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 2: I like the call.
Speaker 1: I think it's definitely a little bit ballsy, but I
Speaker 1: like the confidence. And man, what about this Falcons pass rush?
Speaker 1: They've invested so many first round picks and offseason capital
Speaker 1: into it, and it feels like they can just never
Speaker 1: get to the quarterback. And if there's anyone motivated ericson,
Speaker 1: it's gotta be Derek Carr after getting just destroyed on
Speaker 1: Twitter by Michael Thomas last week.
Speaker 4: Means the classic dead cat bounce right, head coach gets fired.
Speaker 4: What happens next week? The team covers. They don't always win,
Speaker 4: but it seems like they always seem to cover jets.
Speaker 4: Happened this year first head coach got fired. Next week
Speaker 4: Jets cover. So again these trends, like the the Honolulu
Speaker 4: Flu teams that played the Lions, you gotta fain him
Speaker 4: to oblivion. Yep, same thing with back of these coaches.
Speaker 4: So Furman, Yeah, I like the call on the Saints.
Speaker 1: Ericson You're going overseas with your first pick U the week?
Speaker 2: What is it?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So the Giants taken on the Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany,
Speaker 4: and I'm going to bet the under in the game
Speaker 4: at forty one and a half points. International games, the
Speaker 4: trends are clear. You bet the unders in the game,
Speaker 4: and you bet on the favorites. I don't want to
Speaker 4: bet on the Giants as basically now up to touchdown favorites,
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna do an off for the under
Speaker 4: in the game total. You look at seven of the
Speaker 4: giants last ten games have gone under the points line,
Speaker 4: and you look at these two teams. They're coming off
Speaker 4: of impromptu two overs for both the New York Giants
Speaker 4: in Carolina Panthers come up games where there were points scored.
Speaker 4: I as much as I love for Germany to get
Speaker 4: an excellent game, you know, high flying offenses across the
Speaker 4: board point blank. This is Daniel Jones versus Bryce Young.
Speaker 4: If you just blindly bet that in the under, I
Speaker 4: think that you're going to come out in the green
Speaker 4: more often than not.
Speaker 3: So I like the under here.
Speaker 4: The Giants still have a decent red zone defense, top
Speaker 4: five red zone defense, and I think that both teams
Speaker 4: want established to run. Last week we saw the New
Speaker 4: York Giants establish they did not want to throw the
Speaker 4: ball whatsoever. I think that their pass right over expectation
Speaker 4: was mine six percent. After we watch that game in
Speaker 4: the first half, I looked up, have they thrown a
Speaker 4: pass yet? I was baffled because it was either Daniel
Speaker 4: Jones scrambling, Tyrone Tracy runs, Devin Singletary runs. The Carolina
Speaker 4: Panthers have the NFL's worst run defense. Brian Davell knows
Speaker 4: what he has to do offensively, and it's just pound
Speaker 4: the rock. So I don't think that's conducive to a
Speaker 4: lot of points necessarily, So for me, it's gonna be
Speaker 4: an under. I'm gonna fllow the trends in International Series
Speaker 4: six in one the last seven games overseas towards the under.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I love how The one game that went over was
Speaker 1: that Jaguars Bears game, and of course I was on
Speaker 1: the under of that one. So maybe I'll tell you here,
Speaker 1: maybe I'll get back in the winning side of the
Speaker 1: international games. Let's go to Terrell with his second pick. Trell,
Speaker 1: you're once again back in bo Nicks here.
Speaker 5: Oh, let's come on now. I mean, first of all,
Speaker 5: last week I apologize, and despite watching it again, last
Speaker 5: week was and you know what, last week wasn't horrible
Speaker 5: like it was two to three.
Speaker 3: It was Furman. The process was right, yes, stop.
Speaker 5: And not even the process was right. But watching the game,
Speaker 5: they fell short on a first on a fourth down
Speaker 5: when they ran a freaking end around instead of going,
Speaker 5: you know, bo Nick, straight up the middle and go
Speaker 5: get the first down. It was so many questionable decisions
Speaker 5: around the goal line. I even thought the Philly Special
Speaker 5: was questionable. It worked out, but I thought it was questionable.
Speaker 5: I don't know why you don't just go back to
Speaker 5: Courtland Sutton there and just let Courtland Sutton. But I
Speaker 5: guess Courtland Sutton did technically get a touchdown. Nonetheless, that
Speaker 5: game got ugly, really really fast. However, that means that
Speaker 5: the Broncos are closed your Eyes special here ericson and
Speaker 5: guess what close your eye special has been profitable when
Speaker 5: it's not the Carolina Panthers. So we can we can
Speaker 5: look at it this week and so we got a
Speaker 5: close your Eye special against Kansas City Chiefs. We also
Speaker 5: have a Kansas City Chiefs team that only cares about
Speaker 5: winning the game and doesn't care about covering the spread.
Speaker 5: This season, when they have been laying more than a touchdown,
Speaker 5: they are actually three and one against the spread. They
Speaker 5: have not covered a single game, not one. I think
Speaker 5: that this Broncos defense in a in a division game
Speaker 5: is going to get up for this team. They are
Speaker 5: going to hold Kansas City defensively, just not to a
Speaker 5: high point total. And we know how the Kansas City
Speaker 5: defense gets down. They rush the quarterback, they're able to
Speaker 5: get to the passer, and then they have a very
Speaker 5: strong secondary that I think is gonna rattle bow Knicks
Speaker 5: a little bit. So I don't think that there's gonna
Speaker 5: be a lot of points, but I don't think that
Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs are gonna be able to run away
Speaker 5: with this as well. I think that bo Nicks is
Speaker 5: gonna be able to do enough. Sean Payton has hitched
Speaker 5: his horse to bon Nicks and he said, we're gonna
Speaker 5: make sure that bon Knicks doesn't look horrible. Well, guess
Speaker 5: what he looked horrible last week. I think they have
Speaker 5: a bounce back week this week. Again, Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 5: do not cover this, right, they do not. I will
Speaker 5: take the points easily.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Fading them against high spreads is always something I think
Speaker 1: it is usually in the best interest of a better Ericson.
Speaker 1: I think you believe in the Broncos as well.
Speaker 2: This week.
Speaker 4: I do, and it's for a lot of the reasons
Speaker 4: that we pointed out last week. Liking the Denver Broncos
Speaker 4: because you look at Bonnicks what he's been able to
Speaker 4: do as an underdog.
Speaker 3: It's been great four and one against.
Speaker 4: This three and two straight up, So he's been someone
Speaker 4: that's been able to rise above and this has been
Speaker 4: bigger spreads by more than six points, where Bonnicks and
Speaker 4: then Denver Broncs have been kind of counted out and
Speaker 4: they've shown up. Last week it didn't work out because
Speaker 4: it was a pissed off Ravens team and they give
Speaker 4: a ton of points. Their defense played horrible, but that
Speaker 4: every defense plays horrible when they play the Ravens. So yes,
Speaker 4: in a game that's gonna be much tighter. You have
Speaker 4: the Chiefs coming off a short week, playing on Monday
Speaker 4: night in an overtime game. Nonetheless, so it's a divisional game.
Speaker 4: You know, there's always one team with all these dominating teams, right,
Speaker 4: there's always one team that seems to have the number
Speaker 4: of the Chiefs, and it's been the Denver Broncos more
Speaker 4: often than not that have given Patrick Mahomes trouble. The
Speaker 4: last five games against the Chiefs, the Broncs have covered
Speaker 4: in four of them. So similar to my Patriots and
Speaker 4: the Dolphins always bet against them every time they play
Speaker 4: in Miami, even during the Tom Brady era. It's similar
Speaker 4: here with Denver playing the Kansas City Chiefs. So we
Speaker 4: talked about how the Chiefs they don't blow teams out.
Speaker 4: Six of the chiefs eight wins this year have been
Speaker 4: in close games. So the Broncos have played teams really
Speaker 4: tight all year. Last week was the first time they
Speaker 4: had lost by more than one possession. So I think
Speaker 4: that they keep this game closed to the divisional game.
Speaker 4: Again at the end of the day, Chiefs are gonna
Speaker 4: be remain undefeated and be nine to zero, But Owenick's
Speaker 4: gonna be standing there another one against the spread.
Speaker 3: Let's go.
Speaker 1: Well, that was my question. Could the Broncos actually be
Speaker 1: live to win this outright? You guys think because the
Speaker 1: letdown spot for the Chiefs it has to come. I
Speaker 1: thought it was on Monday night and they came all
Speaker 1: the way back.
Speaker 5: I mean, I am, I'm one hundred percent for fading
Speaker 5: Kansas City in any game that they are looking ahead
Speaker 5: to the Buffalo Bills. So I think that if you're
Speaker 5: gonna take a week, like if there was gonna be
Speaker 5: a week where you'd take the Kansas City Chiefs to
Speaker 5: not cover the spread but win the game out right,
Speaker 5: I don't think it would be this one. I think
Speaker 5: this is the week, especially in that loss against the
Speaker 5: and how bad they looked against the Ravens, that the
Speaker 5: Chiefs could one hundred percent sleepwalk through this game into
Speaker 5: a big matchup against the Buffalo Bills next week. So
Speaker 5: maybe not this one.
Speaker 1: Erickson, you're kind of on that same mindset. You like
Speaker 1: the Broncos to cover here but not win out right.
Speaker 3: Probably not.
Speaker 4: But I mean the fact that you're talking about. Look,
Speaker 4: Chiefs are playing so close to the desk with some
Speaker 4: of these matchups. Eventually they're gonna drop one, and it's
Speaker 4: gonna be one that no one really expected. Again against Buffalo, Yes,
Speaker 4: that's a game that could go either way.
Speaker 3: But sermon, now that.
Speaker 4: Now that you're the king of you're the king of
Speaker 4: a sprinkle baby.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a little ratitude going on over there. And before
Speaker 1: we continue, I did remind everyone about the Betting Pros discord.
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Speaker 1: some free prizes. And Torell, We're going back to you
Speaker 1: where you like Jim Harballs guys to bow up here?
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, absolutely? Do you know how many games. The
Speaker 5: Chargers have given up over three touchdowns this season twenty
Speaker 5: one points any.
Speaker 1: Maybe one, maybe one, though NOTUS zero, none at all.
Speaker 5: The Steelers, by the way, Justin Fields, so for Mike
Speaker 5: Tomlin that is still playing Russ Justin Fields had the
Speaker 5: highest points total against the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Let's go by.
Speaker 5: Throwing it out there. Here we are with the five
Speaker 5: to two and one ATS Chargers team going up against
Speaker 5: a one in seven ACS Titans team. I could very
Speaker 5: well be falling into the trap here. I could. But
Speaker 5: if it's a trap, I'm dead. And I'm perfectly fine
Speaker 5: dying to the trap this week because the Chargers and
Speaker 5: these are two good defenses. But at the end of
Speaker 5: the day, the Chargers have been able to find offense
Speaker 5: when they couldn't run the ball, and I don't think
Speaker 5: the Tennessee can find any offense at all whatsoever. I
Speaker 5: think that they're still having this low key internal battle
Speaker 5: of who is the better quarterback on their roster right now,
Speaker 5: and I don't think they understand because Mason Rudolph hasn't
Speaker 5: been very good at all. I didn't think he played
Speaker 5: well against the New England Patriots, and a thing that
Speaker 5: is gonna set this over the top and get me
Speaker 5: Chargers laying seven and a half. Here is the fact
Speaker 5: that it did not cash last week on the live string,
Speaker 5: but it's going to cash this week. Titans are going
Speaker 5: to give up a defensive touchdown in this game, like
Speaker 5: I am almost, whether it's a block punt, whether it's
Speaker 5: a point return on special teams, whether if it's just
Speaker 5: old fashioned scoop and score pick six, baby, they are
Speaker 5: going to give up a defensive touchdown and seth. I
Speaker 5: have told you defensive touchdowns get you covers in this world.
Speaker 5: So hey, maybe if you if you want to take
Speaker 5: the plus money and just take the defensive touchdown, then
Speaker 5: I say do that. I think there's ways that the
Speaker 5: Chargers cover the spread without it, but I think the
Speaker 5: defensive touchdown is one hundred percent could be the thing
Speaker 5: to get us there. I don't trust this Tennessee offense
Speaker 5: at all. I don't think they're playing well at all.
Speaker 5: That's why I was fading the Browns this week on
Speaker 5: the string because I didn't think that they could do
Speaker 5: anything against the Chargers defense. Hardball just has the defense
Speaker 5: rolling and I can't. It's creating offense for him, and
Speaker 5: they're playing low scoring games, but they're covering the numbers.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I love the charges here laying seven and
Speaker 5: a half.
Speaker 1: I gotta say I'm pretty disappointed in Mason Rudolph. I
Speaker 1: took him in the last round of a couple of
Speaker 1: deep best ball leagues. Just hey, what are the chances
Speaker 1: he gets in there? I thought Will Levis might not
Speaker 1: be the guy full time. Yeah, yeah, but I you know,
Speaker 1: this isn't vintage Mason Rudolph that we got last year
Speaker 1: with the Steelers.
Speaker 3: I feel like, I mean, seth.
Speaker 4: I mean, if you just watched the first quarter, Mason
Speaker 4: Rudolf looks pretty good. It's just after the first drive,
Speaker 4: it's just not you.
Speaker 1: Know, he's good scripted. He's good scripted for sure. Absolutely
Speaker 1: he needs Matt Canada out there. I think that that's
Speaker 1: where he was at his.
Speaker 2: Best last.
Speaker 5: These guys are not relevant when they're not playing for Tomlin.
Speaker 1: I mean, Duck Hodges is out there. He's married Delaney
Speaker 1: Wilson right now, and that's the only time he ever
Speaker 1: gets in the spotlights. You'll see him on like a
Speaker 1: CMT red carpet.
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, Mike Tomlin was able to get
Speaker 4: Deontay Johnson on the Ravens. Maybe the one we may
Speaker 4: look and be like espionage at its finest.
Speaker 1: Honestly, when he went to the Ravens, Bogs and I
Speaker 1: were both texting back and forth.
Speaker 2: But oh, this is good news for us.
Speaker 5: The drop, that first drop against the Steelers is gonna
Speaker 5: be It's gonna feed families, right, the first drop he
Speaker 5: has is gonna feed families.
Speaker 1: Ericson in true Undertaker fashion, you're going with a couple
Speaker 1: unders to round us out here.
Speaker 2: What's your first one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings taking on
Speaker 4: the Jacksonville Jaguars under forty four and a half. So
Speaker 4: we're getting news today here on Thursday that we're recording
Speaker 4: where Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play, so that means
Speaker 4: we're gonna get mac Jones. We've seen the spread move,
Speaker 4: but the total hasn't moved as much. So I still
Speaker 4: want to take advantage because I want to bet the
Speaker 4: under look. The Jaguars for the most part the season
Speaker 4: have been an overmachine, and the Vikings are two and
Speaker 4: out towards the over in their last two road games.
Speaker 4: But when you look at which games have gone over
Speaker 4: when Minnesota has played on the road. It's in offenses
Speaker 4: like the Rams, the Lions, the Packers. Would you put
Speaker 4: a Mac Jones led Jaguars team in that bucket, guys,
Speaker 4: I wouldn't.
Speaker 3: Personally.
Speaker 4: I've seen that Jones play a lot of football as
Speaker 4: a Patriots fan, and I can say that when he
Speaker 4: doesn't have a support strong supporting cast, which Jacksonville does not,
Speaker 4: oppositive line issues, backfield issues. I just I like the
Speaker 4: under in this game. Again, I think that the value's
Speaker 4: gone with the spread now that it's out to a
Speaker 4: touchdown for the Vikings on the road, and Sam Donald just.
Speaker 3: Still at the end of the day.
Speaker 4: Again, I talked about this in the Sunday night preview
Speaker 4: before the Vikings and Colts game. At the end of
Speaker 4: the day, this is Sam Donald verus Joe Flacco, and
Speaker 4: now we're looking at this is Sam Donald versus Back Jones.
Speaker 4: Again blindly betting this, you're gonna want to take the
Speaker 4: under and those types of matchup. So for me and
Speaker 4: I will say, I will give a little a credit
Speaker 4: to the Jaguars defense. I thought they looked pretty decent
Speaker 4: against the Eagles, who are just filled with high offensive players.
Speaker 4: I mean their offense couldn't do anything, and I think
Speaker 4: they're they're generating some decent pass rush. And we just
Speaker 4: seen with Sam Donald like every game he makes one
Speaker 4: or two just absolutely bone headed decisions. It's like, God, dude,
Speaker 4: just stick to the script.
Speaker 2: Old Sam, darnold ye jetson.
Speaker 4: Nor always shows up at certain points, which caused the
Speaker 4: Vikings to have issues. So I just think that this
Speaker 4: game is gonna go under the total.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 4: I also just have no expectations for Jacksonville's offense to
Speaker 4: score against Brian Flores. I mean, he's gonna put the
Speaker 4: clamps on Mac Jones and that concerns me for points,
Speaker 4: So again, I think points will be a premium, so
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go under.
Speaker 1: That's probably my favorite pick on this entire slate that
Speaker 1: you guys have laid out here. So good on you there,
Speaker 1: Eric Sonterrell. I want to come back to you. You
Speaker 1: like the forty nine ers this week going up against
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Potentially Christian McCaffrey will be active in this one,
Speaker 1: that's still to be determined. But what do you like
Speaker 1: about the Niners?
Speaker 5: This is a very very hard pick for me because
Speaker 5: we have Kyle Shanahan lang and touchdown on the route,
Speaker 5: and that is not the best trend in historical speaking. However,
Speaker 5: we have something that doesn't happen very often in the
Speaker 5: National Football League, and the schedule makers have decided to
Speaker 5: give Tampa Bay that is off a bye while they
Speaker 5: are off Monday night football.
Speaker 4: In overtime, and oh, ericson, ericson, you're doing too much
Speaker 4: here when we're about to break the matrix.
Speaker 2: Whoa, whoa, whoa.
Speaker 5: I can't. I can't type that into into the query here.
Speaker 5: We're gonna break the matrix here. But what I will
Speaker 5: say is that teams that are teams that are coming
Speaker 5: off of bye and playing a team on Monday Night
Speaker 5: football are nine to five against the spread sixty four percent.
Speaker 5: I think that this is a spot where the offense
Speaker 5: for the forty nine ers, whether Christian McCaffrey plays or not,
Speaker 5: and it sounds like he's gonna play, can be really,
Speaker 5: really good. I think we're gonna see what Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 5: does to this offense. The fact that they're not gonna
Speaker 5: have drives stall out like they have in the past
Speaker 5: through this run without Christian McAffrey, because christiramccaffrey is so
Speaker 5: good in the passing game, and he's gonna be He's
Speaker 5: gonna be the option on third down. I think they
Speaker 5: get better on third down. I think overall they look
Speaker 5: better as an offense. And I still still still question
Speaker 5: the Baker Mayfield led team without Chris Godwin and without
Speaker 5: Mike Evans. I just think that that offense completely. They
Speaker 5: need something on the outside. They need somebody that can
Speaker 5: get separation. I think that's going to be really really
Speaker 5: hard against this forty nine ers front. So unfortunately, I
Speaker 5: do like the forty nine ers laying the big number here.
Speaker 5: This is a great Caesar leg this week. I think
Speaker 5: there's a lot of good Caesar plays this week. I
Speaker 5: think this is a great Caesar play this week. But
Speaker 5: I do like them still to cover the number. I
Speaker 5: think that this is going to be ugly. I think
Speaker 5: that Tampa Bay had their game last week where they
Speaker 5: were kind of end it and they lost it at
Speaker 5: the end. This is going to be the route and
Speaker 5: then they'll figure it out pick up the piece after that.
Speaker 1: Do we have any word if Jalen McMillan is active Erickson.
Speaker 4: I think that he opened this week with a d NP.
Speaker 4: So considering they're going on a bye week next week.
Speaker 4: This is the second time he's been dealing with the hamstring.
Speaker 4: I doubt that he plays Sterling. Shepherd also didn't practice.
Speaker 4: They're in a short week, so.
Speaker 2: He's on the Steelers.
Speaker 3: Baby, this is.
Speaker 2: Palmer, Trey Palmer.
Speaker 4: Yeah there, so he's getting his cardio in, not getting
Speaker 4: targets unfortunately.
Speaker 3: Targets yeah, targets yeah.
Speaker 1: Bety over on Kate Auduins for sure, ericson, I'm coming
Speaker 1: back to you. Indianapolis and Indiana the state in general
Speaker 1: has a big weekend of football ahead. I U is
Speaker 1: rolling top ten in the college football rankings. They got
Speaker 1: Michigan coming to town, and Indianapolis Colts are also at
Speaker 1: home against the Buffalo Bills. Where do you see this
Speaker 1: game going?
Speaker 4: So, yeah, another under for me. I was thinking about
Speaker 4: the Colts as underdogs here. I did think about it,
Speaker 4: but a little Flacco special bounce back after the Vikings,
Speaker 4: But ultimately I think that the total still is way
Speaker 4: too high at forty eight. So you look at Bill's
Speaker 4: last eight road games, six of them have gone under
Speaker 4: the total. Colts are four and oh towards the under
Speaker 4: in their last four games. There hasn't been a Bills
Speaker 4: road game this year that has exceeded forty five points,
Speaker 4: So why are we just assuming, oh, like like forty
Speaker 4: eight this is I mean, forty eight to me seems
Speaker 4: oh shootout. I just don't see that from this game.
Speaker 4: From the optics of it, I think that the Colts
Speaker 4: will have some success running the football. That's how you
Speaker 4: beat the Buffalo defense, and that's ball control. And we're
Speaker 4: dealing with Josh Allen, with these receivers missing time, dealing
Speaker 4: with injuries their offense. Again, they always find a way
Speaker 4: to kind of pull it out at the end. I
Speaker 4: think that this is gonna be a closer game than
Speaker 4: most people expect, which is kind of why I like
Speaker 4: teasing the Colts a little bit. Colts will play in
Speaker 4: a lot of close games this season. I don't think
Speaker 4: it's a blowout, and I think it's just gonna be
Speaker 4: under the total for that reason, So the trends have
Speaker 4: kind of pointed towards the under. And usually I'm just
Speaker 4: better at betting totals and sides anyway, So even though
Speaker 4: I did mention the Colts as kind of an underdog,
Speaker 4: I like, I'm just gonna ultimately bet the total at
Speaker 4: forty eight take the under.
Speaker 1: He's got a brand, he's sticking to it. I can't
Speaker 1: blame him at all. Let's move to Washington, where I
Speaker 1: was looking at tickets for this game before the season starts,
Speaker 1: Steelers and the Washington Commanders. I was like, there's no
Speaker 1: way I'm paying two hundred dollars for a ticket against
Speaker 1: the Commanders, which is going to be a blowout. Turns
Speaker 1: out Steelers are dogs in this one. They're dogs by
Speaker 1: three points. Hereterrell, you'll be at this game, So what
Speaker 1: are you gonna be laying down?
Speaker 5: Yeah? I will be in the game, and I might
Speaker 5: be swinging a terrible towel when you see the the
Speaker 5: crowd pan over me, because let's go.
Speaker 1: I got a couple I got I got white, I
Speaker 1: got yellow, I got.
Speaker 2: Pink, I got all the colors you need.
Speaker 5: Right yeah, oh yeah, go ahead, send that, Send that
Speaker 5: to Va to me. I will one hundred percent be
Speaker 5: in there, and I think I have the motion right
Speaker 5: of swick. Let me see, I got a rag here.
Speaker 5: I think I have the motion right of doing the towel. Yeah,
Speaker 5: look good, there you go, Yeah, there we go. Look
Speaker 5: at that. That's that's great towel motion. Right there.
Speaker 2: I just can't hit your neighbor. I just don't hit
Speaker 2: your neighbor.
Speaker 1: I've smacked some people in the face before. They've been
Speaker 1: Browns fans. We're not happy.
Speaker 5: On the home side of the field too, So I'm
Speaker 5: definitely And you know what, would you believe would you
Speaker 5: believe that they have towels that they're giving out. They're
Speaker 5: giving out red towels for the game. The commander said,
Speaker 5: they're giving out red towels for the game. That is disgusting,
Speaker 5: a disgusting act. And because of that, we're gonna fade them.
Speaker 5: We're gonna fade them in this game. Plus three for
Speaker 5: the Steelers. But there's other reasons as well. We got
Speaker 5: Mike Tomlin coming off of a bye. Well, who's been
Speaker 5: really really good since twenty eighteen. Mike Tomlin is five
Speaker 5: and one ats six and oh straight off of a bye. Like,
Speaker 5: the only time he did not cover is when he
Speaker 5: was laying fourteen points against the Miami Dolphins, and he
Speaker 5: didn't end up covering that line, and in fact, he
Speaker 5: only won that game by thirteen. So Mike Tomlin really
Speaker 5: really locked in off of the bye, really really locked
Speaker 5: in as a dog. As we all know. I'm gonna
Speaker 5: take him as a road dog here because I think
Speaker 5: this Pittsburgh Steelers defense is live. I think they're gonna
Speaker 5: be able to get to Jay and Daniels the quarterback.
Speaker 5: I think TJ. Watt is gonna feast in the backfield.
Speaker 5: They've been really really good stopping the run, and that
Speaker 5: run has been really really good in what has kept
Speaker 5: the Commander's drives going. Trust me, I know I'm a
Speaker 5: Giants fan. I saw them run the ball last week
Speaker 5: and keep drives going when they probably shouldn't, and so
Speaker 5: I'm still very, very questionable of this Commander's defense. They
Speaker 5: are twenty six in the NFL. In rush Dvoa, I
Speaker 5: think Naji's gonna have a great game and make it
Speaker 5: a lot easier on Russ. I think that they're not
Speaker 5: as good in the passing game as everybody tries to
Speaker 5: make them out to be. I swear they're not as
Speaker 5: good in the passing game, and I think Russ can
Speaker 5: take advantage of that. I think this is Steelers and
Speaker 5: Steelers in how Tom does is as a dog with
Speaker 5: low expectations. He comes out and gets a wins. So
Speaker 5: in close games, you play Mike Tomlin. I'm taking Mike
Speaker 5: Tomlin here.
Speaker 1: Erickson, you also like another play here in Washington.
Speaker 4: What is it shocking? It's an under play, an under
Speaker 4: forty five and a half. So I think Furman did
Speaker 4: a good Jokana outlining the Steelers defense and how this
Speaker 4: is a big challenge for the Commander's offense. But I
Speaker 4: want to spend to the other side where I really
Speaker 4: like this Commander's defense and what they've done over the season.
Speaker 4: Have gotten better and have gotten better, They've improved dramatically.
Speaker 4: They're bringing in Marshall Lattimore again. Now they have a
Speaker 4: defensive back that can match up with some of these
Speaker 4: big body wide receivers from George Pickens with Mike Williams.
Speaker 4: Now add into the fold when you look at the
Speaker 4: Commanders this season at home. No team has scored more
Speaker 4: than eighteen points against them at home this year. Third
Speaker 4: fewest points per game allowed at home, Number one, fewest
Speaker 4: yards per game at home this season. So I know
Speaker 4: home roads splits can sometimes be a little noisy when
Speaker 4: it comes to well, who have you played? Things like that,
Speaker 4: but last year it was so stark with the Cleveland Browns,
Speaker 4: for example, and there was a edge to taking advantage
Speaker 4: of it where they're at home. Back to the Browns defense.
Speaker 4: They're on the road. It's a sief. It's gonna give
Speaker 4: up points all over the board. So that's what I
Speaker 4: like the under here. Forty five and a half. It's
Speaker 4: kind of in that sweet spot range where the market
Speaker 4: isn't really sold.
Speaker 3: Is it gonna be a shootout? Not so sure?
Speaker 4: Is it gonna because usually Steelers road games thirty eight
Speaker 4: and a half, like like you just lie every single
Speaker 4: time as Steelers road game three eight and a half,
Speaker 4: thirty seven and a half. So at forty five and
Speaker 4: a half, I think there's some value here. So again,
Speaker 4: Steelers are gonna keep it close. Mike Tommins record, I
Speaker 4: don't think this is gonna be a bloat in any way.
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna take the under.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's stay there in the Nation's capital with
Speaker 1: my upset special of the week. I'm going Steelers plus
Speaker 1: one twenty five at bet Rivers against the Commanders. And
Speaker 1: you have to bet this at bet Rivers because Bette Rivers.
Speaker 1: This is out of Pittsburgh. It's a Pittsburgh book, it's
Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh casino. You gotta bet it. At bet Rivers
Speaker 1: or it's not gonna hit, so make sure you have
Speaker 1: bet Rivers installed. They have a lengthy, very lengthy registration process.
Speaker 1: I had to send them my birth root, tiscuit, my ID.
Speaker 1: Everything they had to know, I.
Speaker 3: Mean social Security number him, yes.
Speaker 2: Yes, so all you have to go through that.
Speaker 1: But once you get there, Bette Rivers, that's a nice book.
Speaker 1: It's a good book. Good book out there in the burg. Honestly, though,
Speaker 1: I prefer not to bet on any of my teams,
Speaker 1: whether that's the Steelers or Penn State, but this is
Speaker 1: a great spot for the Lures. Mike Tomlin thirteen and
Speaker 1: four off a week's rest all time, including winning six
Speaker 1: straight three and one against the Commis in his career
Speaker 1: as well, and this Commander's defense, it's much improved, especially
Speaker 1: in the secondary as Andrew alluded to, but they still
Speaker 1: have been leaky to the running back position. Rbs are
Speaker 1: averaging one hundred and thirteen point five rushing yards per
Speaker 1: game and one point twenty five touchdowns per game over
Speaker 1: the past month. I think Arthur Smith's gonna dial up
Speaker 1: a heavy run game, especially now that Jalen Warren's getting
Speaker 1: back off the by should be fully healthy. He's looked
Speaker 1: terrible all season long, so I think he'll be healthy.
Speaker 1: I think nausey will get going here. And Jane Daniels,
Speaker 1: he's been awesome. We can't deny that at all, guys.
Speaker 1: But has he ever seen anything in the NFL like
Speaker 1: TJ Watt coming from one side, Alex Highsmith coming off
Speaker 1: the edge on the other side. This defense in Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: allowing the second fewest points per game fourteen point nine.
Speaker 2: I think it's just gonna be too much for Washington.
Speaker 1: So give me them to take down the Commanders in
Speaker 1: the stadium with the poop pipe boys.
Speaker 5: Hey, no, I like it. I mean, I'm I'm on Steelers,
Speaker 5: and I hope, I hope I see a Steelers win
Speaker 5: in the stadium. I will be so disappointed if the
Speaker 5: Commanders get a win and I have to walk out
Speaker 5: the stadium with the Commanders fans cheering, but especially with
Speaker 5: their falsy terrible towels that that is that is just
Speaker 5: an American to jock their terrible towels like that. There.
Speaker 5: They are one hundred percent taking a loss here.
Speaker 2: Just don't sit under the poop pipes. I don't know
Speaker 2: where those are. I don't know what's going on with
Speaker 2: that and.
Speaker 1: The renovations of that stadium, but just keep your head
Speaker 1: on a swivel out there.
Speaker 5: I don't want to I don't want to brag, but
Speaker 5: they're pretty good seats. They're pretty good seats.
Speaker 3: So okay, be all right.
Speaker 1: I'll keep an eye out for you. I'll keep an
Speaker 1: eye out for you. I'll round out the program with
Speaker 1: my parlay of the week. It's a four legger for
Speaker 1: combined odds of plus three to h eight coming from
Speaker 1: DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm going Steelers plus three minus one eighteen,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna put a couple of money lines in here.
Speaker 1: Eagles money line minus three sixty Cooper Rush versus an
Speaker 1: Eagles team fire on all cylinders right now.
Speaker 2: Sign me up.
Speaker 1: Chargers money line minus three fifty five. The two and
Speaker 1: six Titans on the road to face Jim Harble, and
Speaker 1: I mean this team has been All gears are turning
Speaker 1: right now for them. JJ Watt was out there earlier
Speaker 1: this week and he said, like, the vibes are just
Speaker 1: immaculate in that building.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna back hardball there.
Speaker 1: And then the Giants money line minus two eighty five
Speaker 1: can Bryce Young do it twice in a row?
Speaker 2: I don't think so. On the road in Germany.
Speaker 1: Against the team with thirty five sacks, the most in
Speaker 1: the league by wide margin. Giddy up ericson what's the
Speaker 1: one leg of this.
Speaker 2: Do you think that sinks?
Speaker 6: It?
Speaker 2: Is it the Eagles money line?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 4: Man? I mean, if it wasn't Mike McCarthy, I feel
Speaker 4: that way. But it's Nick Sirianni versus Mike McCarthy. So
Speaker 4: they're gonna find it. I mean, I just yeah, I
Speaker 4: mean what I mean firm and I'm looking at the Giants.
Speaker 4: They're gonna win this game, right, I mean, favorites always
Speaker 4: win in international games. Their favored, so they should win, right.
Speaker 5: I will admit the Giants are very good when we
Speaker 5: go overseas. We when we go overseas we get wins Packers,
Speaker 5: I will admit that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, And Daniel Jones going to show up pregame
Speaker 4: with the leader hoses and like be ready to go probably.
Speaker 5: Not hopefully defensive touchdown for the Giants is how we
Speaker 5: get to win, and that that is I think Bryce
Speaker 5: Young is going to be I mean, I'm currently sitting
Speaker 5: on Giants to lead the league in sacks fifty to one,
Speaker 5: so I expect.
Speaker 3: To you need.
Speaker 5: Yeah, preseason bat, I'm not bragging or anything, but you know,
Speaker 5: the Giants have been really really good in the front seven,
Speaker 5: and we kept Illusion who I don't know why we
Speaker 5: kept him because he's just gonna walk for free yet
Speaker 5: again just like Sakuan. But you know, I'm not the
Speaker 5: GM of the team. I'm not the coach of the team.
Speaker 5: And that's why the team is where they're at now.
Speaker 3: So when's the when's Tippeteau coming back?
Speaker 5: Is he coming back a couple of weeks, take a
Speaker 5: couple of weeks. He's close though, I know he's close.
Speaker 5: So yeah, here we are. You know, it is what
Speaker 5: it is. If I had to pick one, it's probably
Speaker 5: Cooper Rush pissing everybody off and get anyway like that's
Speaker 5: that's before I think the Cowboys are horrible. I think
Speaker 5: the Cowboys can potentially lose every single game rest of
Speaker 5: the season. But if there was one time the Cowboys
Speaker 5: were to piss me off, it's probably when Cooper Rush
Speaker 5: is quarterback. Okay, I'm still playing this all for sure
Speaker 5: percent fading Cooper Rush.
Speaker 1: Well, we can check out this pick and all of
Speaker 1: our picks on the Betting Pro Sports betting app. Trell
Speaker 1: is at Bettingpros dot com, slash till ericson Betting Pros
Speaker 1: dot com slash ericson, and I don't have the sweet
Speaker 1: the sweet u r L yet, I'm just Betting Pros
Speaker 1: dot Com slash you slash between underscore FF.
Speaker 2: So I'm off to work on that. Maybe I can
Speaker 2: pull a couple of strengths.
Speaker 3: When your four legger hits, you'll get.
Speaker 2: The r Okay, Okay, I appreciate that deal.
Speaker 1: Okay, I will make sure I'll bring that up with
Speaker 1: Blaine and Mic and everybody.
Speaker 5: And if the four leg hits, we're getting him a
Speaker 5: regular fame.
Speaker 2: Man, Well, that will do it for us today on
Speaker 2: VP NFL. Make sure you like this video.
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed it, subscribe to the Bank Pros YouTube
Speaker 1: channel and podcast feed, plus, download the Bank Pros app
Speaker 1: and synk your sportsbooks Today. For Andrew Erickson, Terrell Furman Junior,
Speaker 1: I'm Seth Wilcock.
Speaker 2: Thanks for watching. Take care of y'all.
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