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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Ero podcast. Good morning, It's Monday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty ninth of December. I'm Stephen Caroll in London.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today Donald Trump. Holl's face to face talks

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Speaker 2: at Vladimir Zlenski. As sticking points remain in the Ukraine

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Speaker 2: peace plan. Global stocks continue their rise, with precious metals

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Speaker 2: and copper joining the end of year rally, plus a

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Speaker 2: stern warning. China kicks off military drills around Taiwan following

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Speaker 2: a US arms deal. Let's start with a roundup of

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Speaker 2: our top stories. A Russia Ukraine peace deal is closer

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Speaker 2: than ever, according to the US President Donald Trump made

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Speaker 2: the pronouncement after hosting his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelenski for

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Speaker 2: talks in Florida. Speaking after the meeting, Trump offered an

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Speaker 2: upbeat assessment of a possible peace deal, but said it

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Speaker 2: may take a few weeks to finalize.

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Speaker 3: I really believe we're probably missed a president closer than

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Speaker 3: by far closer than ever before with both parties. We

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Speaker 3: had sometimes when he was close and president, butten wasn't

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Speaker 3: then when that president button was close and he wasn't

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Speaker 3: you saw that in the White House, But I think

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Speaker 3: they both want to see it happen.

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Speaker 2: President Trump there, speaking as v Vladimir Zelenski said the

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Speaker 2: peace framework is ninety percent to greed and the US

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Speaker 2: Ukraine security guarantees are one hundred percent of greed, but

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Speaker 2: the key issues relating to territory remain unresolved. The US

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Speaker 2: president says he's now aiming to convene a meeting with

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Speaker 2: Zelenski and European leaders in January. Global stocks have risen

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Speaker 2: to yet another record high as a much expected year

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Speaker 2: end rally took hold the MSCILE Country World Index steady

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Speaker 2: and age after climbing by one point four percent last

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Speaker 2: week as the tech sector led the gains. The moves

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Speaker 2: in the stock market came as silver gyrated after smashing

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Speaker 2: through eighty dollars announce for the first time, powered by

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Speaker 2: speculative trades in a persistent mismatch between supply and demand.

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Speaker 2: It's currently trading just slightly below that level. Meanwhile, copper

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Speaker 2: is also surged towards a record thirteen thousand dollars a

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Speaker 2: ton on the London Metal Exchange in a stunning end

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Speaker 2: of ye rally. Fueled by concerns over tighter supply. Gainst

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Speaker 2: top fifteen percent in December as investors bet that are

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Speaker 2: rushed to get metal to the US ahead of a

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Speaker 2: possible import tariff will force buyers elsewhere to pay more.

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Speaker 2: In the UK, opposition parties are calling for a British

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Speaker 2: Egyptian democracy activist, Allah Abdel Fatta to be deported after

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Speaker 2: it emerged that he had posted social media mesages over

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Speaker 2: a decade ago calling for Zionists to be killed. Fata

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Speaker 2: returned to the UK on Friday after being detained for

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Speaker 2: six years in Egypt on charges of spreading false news.

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Speaker 2: He was pardoned after years of lobbying by conservative and

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Speaker 2: labor governments. Toy leader Kemmi Baideno Can Reform UK's Nigel

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Speaker 2: Farage have called for the Home Secretary to look into

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Speaker 2: whether the Egyptian dissident can be stripped of his UK

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Speaker 2: citizenship sworted. In a statement, Fata has apologized for the posts,

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Speaker 2: some of which he said had been completely twisted out

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Speaker 2: of their meeting. A former EU official hit with the

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Speaker 2: US visa ban has called on the block to fight back.

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Speaker 2: Terry Breton says that you should resist US attempts to

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Speaker 2: influence its legislation aimed at regulating social media. Speaking of

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Speaker 2: Francis Teafan television, Breton said counteraction is needed.

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Speaker 4: They cannot force us to change laws that we voted

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Speaker 4: for democratically, just to please, to please who, to please

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Speaker 4: the US social media platforms. No, we must stand up,

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Speaker 4: we must resist.

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Speaker 2: That was former EU Digital chief Terry Breton, speaking on

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Speaker 2: French television yesterday. Recently, the US administration imposed visa bans

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Speaker 2: on Breton, as well as several activists, describing their attempts

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Speaker 2: to fight online hate speech as censorship aimed at American

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Speaker 2: tech companies. Breton went on to say that he has

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Speaker 2: received widespread political backing following the US visa ban announcement.

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Speaker 2: Bank of America's CEO expects the Trump administration to de

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Speaker 2: escalate trade tensions next year after tariff related shocks in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Speaking to CBS News, Brian moynihan says

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Speaker 2: he expects an average of fifteen percent tariffs for the

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Speaker 2: broad base of countries, with higher rates for those that

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Speaker 2: won't commit to lowering non tariff barriers.

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Speaker 5: You're starting to see the resolution of the discussions in

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Speaker 5: the fifteen percent here seventeen different numbers. When you put China,

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Speaker 5: Chin is a different question because the national security interests,

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Speaker 5: the rare orse minerals, magnet's batteries, just the AI all

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Speaker 5: that stuff.

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Speaker 6: It's a very different case.

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Speaker 2: Bank of America's Brian moynihan, speaking there to CBS has

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Speaker 2: faced the nation. In April, Trump announced a baseline rate

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Speaker 2: of ten percent tariffs on all imports into the US.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average US tariff right rows

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Speaker 2: two fourteen percent and from two percent after Trump returned

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Speaker 2: to the White House. And China has begun military drills

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Speaker 2: around Taiwan following a US deal to sell the island

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Speaker 2: arms worth up to eleven billion dollars. The operation underscore

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Speaker 2: is how sensitive the Taiwan question is to Beijing. According

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Speaker 2: to a statement from the Chinese military, the exercises will

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Speaker 2: include live fire drills and involve all major branches of

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Speaker 2: the military. The maneuvers follow the decision on Friday to

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Speaker 2: unveil largely symbolic sanctions against twenty US defense companies and

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Speaker 2: ten executives. And those are your top stories. In a moment,

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Speaker 2: will bring you the latest on the Ukraine, peace talks,

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Speaker 2: plus what's driven the price of silver to a record high.

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Speaker 2: Another story that we've been reading this morning on how

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Speaker 2: AI is affecting not only the work that we're doing,

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Speaker 2: but the games that we're playing as well. Nikitchell has

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Speaker 2: written a great essay about this. He looks at how

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Speaker 2: technology has been encroaching on our leisure activities right, and

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Speaker 2: that software has matched or surpassed us in virtually any

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Speaker 2: activity involving cards, boards, or dice. And even if you've

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Speaker 2: bet on horse races or doing fantasy sports, you've probably

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Speaker 2: competed against artificial intelligence without realizing it. Nothing is safe.

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Speaker 2: Even managed to find researchers teaching neural networks to play

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Speaker 2: the board game Katan. So there are questions, of course,

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Speaker 2: about what this means for the human experience of game

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Speaker 2: playing as well. Kit spoke to the philosopher Susan Schneider

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Speaker 2: about this. She talked about her worries about so called

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Speaker 2: intellectual leveling. So what if large language models end up

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Speaker 2: steering us all towards the same TV shows, the same destinations,

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Speaker 2: the same games, while telling all of us that it's

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Speaker 2: just for you. This kind of flattening, Kit says, is

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Speaker 2: already happening in poker. He's been writing a book about

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Speaker 2: that in particular. But can games still be fun if

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Speaker 2: machines are involved? Does it take away the key element

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Speaker 2: of competition and what makes it challenging? Some food for

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Speaker 2: thought as we're coming towards the end of this year, where,

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Speaker 2: of course, so much of the conversation has been dominated

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Speaker 2: by how AI is changing the world we live in.

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Speaker 2: We'll find that piece on Bloomberg dot com or put

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Speaker 2: a link to it in our podcast show notes. Well,

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Speaker 2: let's bring you more in now though. On the talks

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Speaker 2: between the US and Ukrainian leaders in Florida, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: says a lot of progress was made. We'll get the

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Speaker 2: details now with our TI Phaser correspondent Rosalind Mathson has

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Speaker 2: been following this story for us RAS. Good Morning, vlosmore

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Speaker 2: Zelenski talked about several areas being one hundred percent agreed

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Speaker 2: after these talks. What do we know about where progress

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Speaker 2: was made?

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Speaker 1: Well, in terms of where progress was made, it was

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Speaker 1: mainly things around security guarantees according to the Ukrainian leader,

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Speaker 1: at least that those are agreed US Ukraine's security guarantees.

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Speaker 1: That is, the US President Donald Trump also talked about that.

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Speaker 1: On the question of US europe Ukraine security guarantees, Zelensky said,

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Speaker 1: these were almost agreed, and that's where Europe will have

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Speaker 1: a big role in assuring the future security of Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and that's something that Donald Trump has been insisting on.

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Speaker 1: He also talked about progress around the role of the military.

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Speaker 1: That probably includes the size of the military after the

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Speaker 1: war and continued military support for Ukraine. It also, you know,

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Speaker 1: as understandings around Ukraine's economy, and that includes trade arrangements

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Speaker 1: with the US in essence, how to ensure that US

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Speaker 1: gets some kind of economic benefit from the support it's

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Speaker 1: given Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: So there seems to have been progress in all those areas.

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Speaker 1: Certainly the conversations between Zelensky and Donald Trump seemed to

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Speaker 1: be much warmer than they were, you know, at least

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Speaker 1: a year ago, and that there is progress there, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of other areas and really key areas where

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Speaker 1: progress has not been made.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, indeed, such a change since that particular White Eyes

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Speaker 2: meeting that we can all remember between the presidents as well.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about the sticking points then, where do we

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Speaker 2: see I suppose the party's furthest apart on this plan, Well.

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Speaker 1: The biggest areas obviously land, and that's this question of territory,

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Speaker 1: and Russia obviously wants Ukraine to seed territory still held

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Speaker 1: by Ukraine in the Dombas region, and that's territory that

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Speaker 1: Russia has failed to take and hold in the years

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Speaker 1: that this war has gone on. Ukraine is obviously refusing that,

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Speaker 1: and territory really is the fundamental issue here for Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Sadinsky's talked about a potential demilitarized zone in that area

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Speaker 1: of the Dombas as long as Russia pulls back its forces,

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Speaker 1: but that's something Moscow is unlikely to agree to, so

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Speaker 1: fundamental questions around land. There's also a question on the

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Speaker 1: Zaparizia and nuclear power plant, which is occupied at the

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Speaker 1: moment by Russia. Ukraine wants to share ownership of that

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Speaker 1: plant with the US. There's possible that it could be

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Speaker 1: joint ownership split three ways including Russia, the US and Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: although very unwieldy as a result, So questions around land

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Speaker 1: who controls what? And Ukraine's still wanting a sense in

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Speaker 1: the end of what happens if Russia were to attack again,

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Speaker 1: what kind of guarantees really in all of this, how

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Speaker 1: binding are they particularly, And that's where Donald Trump has

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Speaker 1: prevaricated a bit, is how binding.

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Speaker 6: Would all of this be?

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Speaker 1: So still quite a few very significant sticking points there, and.

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Speaker 2: Of course these are talks that were happening between the

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Speaker 2: US and Ukraine. How acceptable is any of this likely

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Speaker 2: to be to Russia.

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Speaker 1: Well, Donald Trump's been doing a bit of a double

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Speaker 1: track here where he's been talking to the Russian leader

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Speaker 1: and then separately talking to the Ukrainian leader. He does

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Speaker 1: talk about possibly still trying to get them together at

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Speaker 1: some point, So he's doing a dance between these two sides.

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Speaker 1: And obviously for Russia, there are questions around territory. There

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Speaker 1: are also questions around the size of Ukraine's army after

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Speaker 1: the war. Russia wants guarantees against future eastward expansion by NATO,

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Speaker 1: that's the military alliance. They want guarantees on Ukraine's neutral

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Speaker 1: status if it joins the European Union. So there are

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Speaker 1: still things here that Russia says that they want. And

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Speaker 1: we see these agreements edging a little bit one way,

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Speaker 1: and then Russia says, hang on, that's too far in

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Speaker 1: favor of Ukraine and then Ukraine says, hang on, these are.

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Speaker 6: Too far in favor obviously of Russia.

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Speaker 1: And so we're still in that area where Trump is

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Speaker 1: negotiating separately with each leader, but you're not getting any

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Speaker 1: real negotiation still between Russia and Ukraine directly.

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Speaker 2: And on that point, then how much closer or how

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Speaker 2: far away does an end to the war look like

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Speaker 2: after what we've seen this ramping up of diplomatic activity

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Speaker 2: in recent weeks.

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Speaker 1: That's right, we have seen a ramp up in diplomatic activity.

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Speaker 1: We're also seeing fighting going on still on the ground.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing energy, you know, strikes on energy facilities, shipping facilities.

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Speaker 1: On the weekend, Moscow launched a very large air strike

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Speaker 1: on Kiev and on energy facilities. And Vladimir Putin has

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Speaker 1: refused Donald Trump's calls for a truce. He's saying we

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Speaker 1: have to have an agreement first before there's any truth.

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Speaker 1: So the fighting goes on, and Donald Trump himself, you know,

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Speaker 1: he says, after all these conversations on the weekend, it

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Speaker 1: might take weeks.

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Speaker 6: There's no set timeline.

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Speaker 1: He's been very careful to move away from specific dates

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Speaker 1: he used to sort of claim that he would get

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Speaker 1: this war done very quickly, and obviously it's a year

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Speaker 1: on and he hasn't so now he's talking in general

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Speaker 1: terms about weeks. The question is does he have a

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Speaker 1: follow up conversation with the Russian leader today? What does

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Speaker 1: that call achieve? If anything? Is there potentially a meeting

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Speaker 1: between the US, Europe and Ukraine in January?

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Speaker 6: Does that propel things forward?

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Speaker 1: But there's no set timeline here and no great sense

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Speaker 1: again that they're making much progress on these fundamental issues

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Speaker 1: around land.

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Speaker 6: So for now, at least, no end to the war

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Speaker 6: is in sight.

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Speaker 2: Okay, ros Mathsen, our chief Asia correspondent, thank you very

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Speaker 2: much for joining us. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak Europe coming up after this. On the markets now,

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Speaker 2: the price of silver hit a record high this morning,

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Speaker 2: after a blistering run for precious metals this year. Our

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Speaker 2: executive editor for Asian Markets, Paul Dobson, joins us now

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Speaker 2: for more. Paul starting and with silver, bit of a

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Speaker 2: wild ride going on. Every time I look at the price,

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Speaker 2: it's moved pretty significantly. What's driving the rally that we're

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Speaker 2: seeing today and over the past number of days.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Hi there, good morning, Stephen, As you say, very

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Speaker 7: volatile market conditions for precious metals and silver in particular.

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Speaker 7: We've really had a big burst hire at the open

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Speaker 7: in Asia today. I think the things that are behind

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Speaker 7: the move are one, quite a lot of hype. Precious

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Speaker 7: metals tend to attract a lot of retail investment interest,

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Speaker 7: which can be very much want to jump on the

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Speaker 7: trend mentality, So there's definitely quite a lot of speculative bets,

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Speaker 7: people piling into ETFs and betting that the price will

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Speaker 7: just continue to ramp up. But behind that there's this

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Speaker 7: underlying picture of an imbalance in supply and demand. We've

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Speaker 7: seen central bank buying throughout the year use of silver

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Speaker 7: in industrial processes which makes it and out a little

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Speaker 7: bit differently to gold as well, particularly in solar power equipment.

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Speaker 7: And you know, people looking forwards to the prospect of

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Speaker 7: more interest rate cuts from central banks after the three

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Speaker 7: that we've seen in reasonably quick succession from the Fed

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Speaker 7: at the end of this year, making people more confident

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Speaker 7: in precious medals which don't carry a gield relative to

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Speaker 7: our high currency, which of course does carry some sort

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Speaker 7: of interest rate on deposits.

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Speaker 2: So thinking about that then going into next year is

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Speaker 2: that a trade that's likely to continue in that direction.

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Speaker 2: What's the outlook then for these prescious metals in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six.

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Speaker 7: It certainly feels like the bulls are outnumbering the bears

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Speaker 7: at the moment. Now that might make you feel potentially

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Speaker 7: that this is a one sided trade and that the

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Speaker 7: rug could get pulled from unto the feed of investors

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Speaker 7: and calls calling quite nasty corrections along the way, which

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Speaker 7: you know, we sort of saw in a microcosmic way

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Speaker 7: intra day today with the silver move. But there's definitely

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Speaker 7: consensus on higher prices provided that central bank demand continues,

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Speaker 7: particularly from the likes of China and emerging market. So

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Speaker 7: Goldman Sachs for example, has gold pegged at four nine

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Speaker 7: hundred or more going into twenty twenty six, but there

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Speaker 7: are plenty of calls for five thousand dollars and even

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Speaker 7: higher than that. You know, we've had that narrative as

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Speaker 7: well this year about the debasement trade, the idea that

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Speaker 7: people don't want any traditional currency, they would rather hold

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Speaker 7: something physical in their hands, gold, silver, platinum, whatever they

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Speaker 7: can do, and that does become something of a self

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Speaker 7: fulfilling prophecy if people are worried that the price is

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Speaker 7: going to go higher, they'll want to jump in and

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Speaker 7: buy it now rather than wait until later. So you know,

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Speaker 7: it's quite possible that at some point we reach it

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Speaker 7: much higher levels. But it's also certain that as we

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Speaker 7: get quite thin liquidity at these stretched levels, we're going

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Speaker 7: to see much more volatility and rapid corrections backwards, as

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Speaker 7: well as the rally or that underlying sentiment offering some

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Speaker 7: sort of support.

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