1 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: Once up, guys, how are you happy Saturday? Welcome into 2 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: another episode of the Daily Juice podcast. I'm your host, 3 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: Matt Perolt. You guys can follow me across all my 4 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk met and last night was either 5 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: two and two or one and two depending upon did 6 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: you bet the second period over like I told you 7 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: to first period under, second period over? Both those bets 8 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: bets cash if you do that. We were down small 9 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: because the WNBA play Connecticut was always the worry. Connecticut 10 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: didn't score any points. I got blown out by the 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: Vegas Aces, who, by the way, should that the bet 12 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: should have been Vegas minus six. That should have been 13 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: the bet. That's my bat on that I liked Vegas. 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: I did a bad bet. Should have bet the over. 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: I should have bet the not the over, should have 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: bet minus six, and said, I bet the over. Stupid 17 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,639 Speaker 1: play my so that was bad. And then the Red 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: Sox and the Reds hit five home runs and the 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: game went under five solo shots. That's just bad luck. 20 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: I mean, there's nothing that was handicapped properly. That's just 21 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 1: bad luck. Like, there's no other way around it. They 22 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: scored five runs in the first four innings. All on 23 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: solo shots five to two. Final we bet over nine, 24 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,279 Speaker 1: so we lost on that but first period under, second 25 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: period over for the hockey game in high Edmonton, Monday 26 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: is going to be a trip. Game seven for history. 27 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: Can they become the first hockey team since nineteen forty 28 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: two in the Cup Finals to rally down three to 29 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: win a series four games to three? Would be unbelievable 30 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: from a collapse perspective. For the Florida Panthers, oh my, 31 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: what a game, what a win? What a game Monday 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: is going to be. It's going to be a ton 33 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: of fun. We get one more hockey game and the 34 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: best thing in hockey, a game seven in a game 35 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: seven to see if the Panthers can avoid becoming well 36 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: a footnote in history nineteen forty two. Toronto did it 37 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: in nineteen forty two. Other than that, it's never been 38 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: done in the Cup finals. One team has come back 39 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: down three? Could Edmonton be the second? So two and two, 40 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: I'll call it two and two for the night we 41 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: go to Saturday. Two baseball plays, one UFC play. Let's 42 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: start with the UFC fight night. It's over in Saudi Arabia, 43 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: So this is going to be a fight card that's 44 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: going to start at a little bit of a weird time. 45 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: So just take a look at the start time here 46 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: for this on ABC for you for UFC Fight Night 47 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: in Australia. I want to look at the Komaine volkoff 48 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: against Pelovich. So Sergei is a machine. He really has 49 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: been just tremendous. He's eighteen and two. Average fight time 50 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: is two thirteen. This guy lost his last fight to 51 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: Tom Aspital but beat Blades, beat Tuivasa, beat Lewis, has 52 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: some pretty good names on his resume. Volkov equally good 53 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 1: names on his resume, beating Romanov and tu Vasa rosen 54 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 1: Strike lost also to Tom Mostrol in the first round. 55 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: Much similar to serge But these two guys used to 56 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: train with each other, and there's something interesting about that. 57 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: The time for Alexander Volkov, his average fight time is 58 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: twelve forty three. I know in heavyweights it can be 59 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: difficult here and it can be dangerous to go ahead 60 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 1: and bet on overs. But the rounds it's a three 61 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: round fight, okay, it's over one and a half rounds 62 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: at plus money. It's plus one sixteen for the over 63 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: one and a half rounds. So that's the full first 64 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: round and two and a half minutes into the second round. 65 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: That's we have to get to that basically, you know 66 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: that magic two thirty mark in round two. I don't 67 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: know if these guys are going to come out swinging 68 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: with each other now. Pabovich is a pretty big favorite 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: to twenty five favorite. Volkov's a pretty big dog here. 70 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: I do think betting on heavyweight underdogs is a pretty 71 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: good play. But the stats are kind of stark, are 72 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: pretty glaring to me. You look at strikes landed per minute. 73 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 1: Pavlovich is eight point two, Volkov is five point one. 74 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: Striking accuracy fifty seven percent to forty eight percent, and 75 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: defense fifty four percent to fifty five percent. Strikes absorbed 76 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: just three for Volkov. So you can throw at this guy, 77 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 1: but he's not hitable. You don't hit him all that much. 78 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,559 Speaker 1: I think there's real value here. On the over last 79 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: fight against Tuivasa, we went to the second round, four 80 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: thirty seven of the second round for Volkov. The three 81 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: fights before that were all first round knockouts, so it 82 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: was two wins and a loss or one submission, sorry, 83 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: two knockouts in one submission. But he had a decision 84 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: against Tiber. He went five rounds against Cereal, Gone went 85 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: over two rounds two runs against Alistair Overeim. Now that's 86 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one. But I don't know how 87 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: aggressive Volkov's going to be here, Okay, I don't know 88 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: how we're gonna see these guys come out and just 89 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 1: start swinging with each other and going nuts. I think 90 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 1: that there's a real opportunity here to bet. Now, you 91 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: could bet to start the second round if you want 92 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: to bet that it's minus one twenty six at FanDuel. 93 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: That's not a bad way to play. If you want 94 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: to bet they'll start the third round, that's plus one seventy, 95 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: So somewhere in the second round this fight is going 96 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: to begin. I'll take the shot here at plus one 97 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: sixteen that we get two and a half minutes, that 98 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: it doesn't end quickly in the second round. Again, you 99 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: can bet you want to lay the juice at minus 100 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: one twenty six, you can do that. But I'll lay 101 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: the one unit down to win one point one point 102 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: one six with the over one and a half rounds 103 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 1: and the co main event between two guys to know 104 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: each other in Volkov in Paulovich, and I think a 105 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: car a fight that very well might go deeper than 106 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: people think. So Palovich is a pop power puncher, but 107 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: I could see him winning on the carts. I can 108 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: see it's going all three rounds. It's not like you're 109 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: going to have a massive firefight here. That's just not 110 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: what Volkov does. It'd be very interesting to see if, 111 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: like how aggressive these guys are going to be given 112 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: the Volkoff's You know, see a lot of fights that 113 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: have gone into the third round. Twelve forty three average 114 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: fight time for him is quite remarkable, and yes, things 115 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: have been going faster of late in twenty twenty two. 116 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, I got you there, but again 117 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 1: his last fight went into the second round four thirty 118 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: seven done into the second round when he defeated two 119 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: Vessels two Vasa Taijouvasa by a submission. I'm going over 120 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,799 Speaker 1: over one and a half rounds in Fight Night Saudi 121 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: Arabia for the UFC. Over one and a half rounds 122 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: at plus one sixteen Okay to baseball. Zach Wheeler's on 123 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: the mound for the Phillies. Zach Wheeler lost his last start. 124 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 1: He was horrific four you give eight earned runs in 125 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: four and a third innings worth of work. He was 126 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: good against the Red Sox seven innings, pitched just one 127 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: earned run. But at home where he is today three 128 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: to one win, five to two win, four to two win, 129 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: three straight run line victories for Zach Wheeler. At home, 130 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,679 Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler has a one point seventy to one ERA. 131 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: He's five and two in the posing batting average of 132 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: one seventy one, just ten earned runs given up in 133 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: fifty two and two thirds innings worth of work. Sixty 134 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: one k's opposite fifteen walks for Zach Wheeler. He's been 135 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: tremendous at the bank at home this year. Yesterday the 136 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: Phillies lost the Diamondbacks five to four. The Phillies well, 137 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: since the London trip, they've been kind of up and down. 138 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: They lost two straight. Now lost to the Padres five 139 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: to two and then Diamondbacks five four. Phillies will face 140 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: up against Tommy Henry, left handed pitcher, and we know 141 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: the Phillies can hit lefties. He's a guy on the 142 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: road this year. Has a three point four to four 143 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: eras two to zero posing batting average of two forty 144 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: eighteen k's to eight walks, eighteen to one third innings 145 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: worth of work. He's going up seven runs, four home 146 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: runs in a home run hitting ballpark. He's much worse 147 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: at home nine to thirty seven ERA at home for 148 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: Tommy Henry. But up against Zach Wheeler, this is not 149 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: the guy I think you want to be throwing. He 150 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: lost his last start nine to two to the White Sox. 151 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: The White Sox beat the Padres, but then lost to 152 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: the Dodgers eight to four. Those were home games. One 153 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: on the road nine to three. He won fourteen to 154 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: one against the Cardinals, and he won against the Rockies 155 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: five to three, lost to the Braves on the road 156 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: six to five. But this is too tough a matchup here. 157 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: In fact, I think we can go run line here. 158 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: Three straight run line wins for Zach Wheeler, home for 159 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: the Phillies. Let's see these bats come to life for 160 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: Philadelphia and score some runs here and even up this 161 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 1: series at one run at one game piece. You can 162 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: you can lay it if you want to lay just 163 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: the money line price, but it's over two dollars. It's 164 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 1: expensive to do this, so I think you have to 165 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: kind of take a shot on the run line rather 166 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: than get involved heavily. Here. It's only misus one oh five, 167 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,719 Speaker 1: so I think it's a decent shot. It's minus two 168 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 1: forty five on the money line. It's expensive. It's more expensive. 169 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: I ever recommend you guys playing Phillies run line misus 170 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: one oh five one point zero five units laying the 171 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: one and a half runs for Philadelphia. And finally, Nick 172 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: Pivetta's on the mountain for the Red Sox. They lost yesterday. 173 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: They had their five game win streak snapped by the Reds. 174 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: We talked about it. We were on the over. It's 175 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: a five to two win for Cincinnati. This is a 176 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: guy who's won three straight starts seven three, eight, six, 177 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: nine to nothing. Nick Pivetta. You know, seven earned runs 178 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 1: and eighteen ins were worth of work so far in 179 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: the month of June. He's a guy that on the 180 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: road this year hasn't been horrible. It's been better at 181 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: home on the road than at home. Twenty one three 182 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: and two opposing batting average of two forty ten earned 183 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 1: runs in twenty eight innings worth of work twenty six 184 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,199 Speaker 1: k is just three walks for Nick Pivetta here for 185 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: the Red Sox. And look, I think Boston could bounce 186 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: right back here after losing five to two in the 187 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: first time. They'll frank They'll go up against Frankie Montas, 188 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:20,599 Speaker 1: a guy who the Yankees thought was going to be 189 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: good and he really wasn't. He's lost four of his 190 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: five last five starts. He's given up, you know, a 191 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: bunch of earn runs every time. Seven earned runs given 192 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: up in June and thirteen and a third innings worth 193 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: of work in the month of May. He gave up 194 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: fifteen earned runs in twenty seven and two thirds innings 195 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,599 Speaker 1: worth of work his last He's won one game in 196 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: the month of June in the month of May, lost 197 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 1: every start in May with zero to five. He's one 198 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: and two so far here during this during this month 199 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: of June, but three earn runs and four earn runs 200 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: given up. He only lasted one in one third innings 201 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: against the Cubs. In his last home start, he got 202 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: tattooed in a four to two lost to Chicago. The 203 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: bullpen wasn't bad for the Reds in that game, but 204 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: they yanked him in the second inning and they lost 205 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: the game four to two. Red Sox are minus one 206 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: twenty on the money line not expensive. Just take Boston 207 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: and bounce back like the Red Sox minus one twenty 208 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: one point two units down on Boston to beat the 209 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:23,559 Speaker 1: Reds today. Okay, over in the Comaine over one and 210 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 1: a half rounds at plus one sixteen for one unit, 211 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: Philly's run line minus one oh five at one point 212 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 1: zero five units down, and the Red Sox money line 213 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 1: at minus one twenty one point two units down on Vat. 214 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: Those are our plays for Saturday. Hopefully we can have 215 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: a hot Saturday Sunday. Let's see if we can get 216 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: out of this week a winner. We're still losing for 217 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: the week. Let's see if we're gonna have a winning 218 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: week here on the weekend Mius Matt Perolt following across 219 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: all socials every single morning, where every podcasts go and 220 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: find it. It's the Daily Juice