WEBVTT - Apple Sales Crush Estimates in Record Quarter for the iPhone

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine

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<v Speaker 2>that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,

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<v Speaker 2>and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance

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<v Speaker 2>and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Weekdaily

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, got to say investors like in this report in

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<v Speaker 3>the aftermarket stock still up about two percent here in

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<v Speaker 3>the postmarket trade. Hey, let's see what Bloomberg News Managing

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<v Speaker 3>editor for Global Tech Consumer Tech thinks about this. He

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<v Speaker 3>is Mark German, knows everything about this company, lots of exclusives.

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<v Speaker 3>This feels pretty good.

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<v Speaker 4>Jim Cook has to keep his job, at least for now.

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<v Speaker 4>This is a massive, massive, massive quarter. This is a

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<v Speaker 4>home run. Their greatest quarter ever by orders of magnitude.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a gigantic beat on overall revenue. China is back.

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<v Speaker 4>You have a big beat on the iPhone in particular.

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<v Speaker 4>Eighty five billion dollar quarter is just insane. The installed

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<v Speaker 4>base two and a half billion, The numbers are just

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<v Speaker 4>beyond excellent. We could ignore the fact that they missed

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<v Speaker 4>on wearables, home and accessories. We can ignore the fact

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<v Speaker 4>they missed on Mac. We could ignore the fact that

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<v Speaker 4>they barely you know, crossed expectations on services. I guess

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<v Speaker 4>none of that matters when the iPhone is selling so well.

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<v Speaker 4>But still there's the big existential question of what's next.

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<v Speaker 4>It's an important question because of AI and Apple absolutely

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<v Speaker 4>needs to figure out it's AI strategy. There needs to

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<v Speaker 4>be an AI reckoning of some sort there. But they

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<v Speaker 4>just bought themselves a very long time with this just

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<v Speaker 4>insanely great quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about a couple of the areas that

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<v Speaker 1>you highlighted there, China, and another one is the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the concerns that people had about memory chips in

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<v Speaker 1>this quarter and the rising prices of memory chips. How

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<v Speaker 1>was Apple able to navigate this so it didn't hit

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<v Speaker 1>its margins like people thought it would.

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<v Speaker 4>They buy components and memory components quarters and months in advance,

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<v Speaker 4>sometimes years in advance. They have these deals struck, so

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<v Speaker 4>they're working off of numbers and pricing and materials here

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<v Speaker 4>that really give them extensive pricing power over competitors. So

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<v Speaker 4>we'll hear more about that on the call today. But

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<v Speaker 4>it seems like they're fine.

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<v Speaker 3>Mark, I love this. I mean, I'm looking at our

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<v Speaker 3>live blog, so you must have kicked this out before

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<v Speaker 3>you jumped on air with us. But you did mention

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<v Speaker 3>that the significant things on the call, You've already talked

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<v Speaker 3>about the AI strategy succession. You've kind of said maybe

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<v Speaker 3>that's off the table for now because this was such

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<v Speaker 3>a blowout quarter. You talk about the long term viability

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<v Speaker 3>of the business if it doesn't get its AI act together.

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<v Speaker 3>It's hard to even think about that when you see

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<v Speaker 3>the numbers here and just what a big company this

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<v Speaker 3>is and how significant is I feel like in so

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<v Speaker 3>many different people's lives, like I have an Apple household.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Tim has an Apple household. Is that is

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<v Speaker 3>that really the long term viability if they don't get

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<v Speaker 3>AI together, call me Tim Apple In fact they do,

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<v Speaker 3>that's yes.

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<v Speaker 4>I said long term, right and the fucking really and

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<v Speaker 4>talking really long okay, the little, the little, the really

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<v Speaker 4>long term here, right, Like, at some point there is

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<v Speaker 4>going to be a need to fulfill these AI desires

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<v Speaker 4>and you know they're going to have to figure that out.

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<v Speaker 2>Well.

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<v Speaker 3>On o agranav Our BI team, he talked with Tim

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<v Speaker 3>and I just moments ago, and he talked about, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>how they're working with Google when it comes to AI,

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<v Speaker 3>relying on them right now for their models, and so

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<v Speaker 3>they're not doing the big AI spend. That makes sense

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<v Speaker 3>for now too. So do you agree that that's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of a smart strategy now and kind of waiting it

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<v Speaker 3>out a little bit, But at some point they've got

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<v Speaker 3>to kind of do their own thing.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not that they're waiting it out. Oh, it's that

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<v Speaker 4>they have no choice, they have nothing internal. It's not

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<v Speaker 4>that they're waiting it out. It's that they need to

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<v Speaker 4>do it, and so they're partnering with the best partner

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<v Speaker 4>they can. It's going to offer them the best pricing power,

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<v Speaker 4>which for now is Google. They initially wanted to work

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<v Speaker 4>with Anthropic, but from a pricing standpoint, that didn't work out.

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<v Speaker 4>They couldn't work with open Ai because they're you know,

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<v Speaker 4>hardcore competitors at this point. So Google was all who

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<v Speaker 4>was left. And obviously the judge didn't break up the

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<v Speaker 4>search deal there, so it made sense and it'll aligned

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<v Speaker 4>pretty nicely for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, do we know yet how Apple was able to

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<v Speaker 1>beat expectations in China once again for the first quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>the most recent quarter, Greater China revenue came in at

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five point five to three billion dollars. Twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>point eighty two was the estimate you said it minutes ago.

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<v Speaker 1>It is back in China. You're holding up an iPhone

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<v Speaker 1>right now. That's what they did.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm answering your question. I'm answering your question.

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<v Speaker 1>It was the iPhone seven color orange. Oh, it's the

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<v Speaker 1>color orange. It's that easy.

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<v Speaker 4>Because the promax. No, it's designed. People buy the new designs.

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<v Speaker 4>This is the first new in half a decade. You

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<v Speaker 4>got it done. That's why you do new designs, because

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<v Speaker 4>you're trying to bring in new customers. Why is for upgrades?

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<v Speaker 4>And but that's the way to do it.

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<v Speaker 1>Didn't they know that?

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<v Speaker 4>Of course they know that. But it takes time to

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<v Speaker 4>do these new designs, and you kind of want to

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<v Speaker 4>get it right. And then you can't do it too

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<v Speaker 4>often because if you do it too often, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>have the power that it has if you do it

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<v Speaker 4>only every so often.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, I want to roll into this a story you've

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<v Speaker 3>got on the Bloomberg that you put out today, and

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<v Speaker 3>this has to do with Apple buying the Israeli AI

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<v Speaker 3>startup that interprets facial movement. QAI is this important.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's going to enable some features for future

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<v Speaker 4>air pods and smart glasses and mixed reality headsets and

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<v Speaker 4>all that, but it's not fundamental to the overall AI strategy,

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<v Speaker 4>which I think they're still trying to figure out. Also,

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<v Speaker 4>just one piece of the puzzle.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Mark. Another story that you reported on this week,

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<v Speaker 1>Apple's Tim Cook calls for a DS after Alex Pretti's

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<v Speaker 1>shooting in Minneapolis. There's this thread that Tim Cook is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to a needle that Tim Cook is trying to thread.

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<v Speaker 1>He was at the White House on Saturday, and.

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<v Speaker 4>They do a very good job. Why not the needle? Well,

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<v Speaker 4>I think his statement was kind of worthless in some respects.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that he spent I don't know if it's

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<v Speaker 4>at a statement talking about how the president, the one

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<v Speaker 4>who's overseeing the policies that led to the situation of Minneapolis,

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<v Speaker 4>has his ears wide open to listen to feedback. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure that's what his employees, who are sort

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<v Speaker 4>of revolting internally about this, we're looking for. I think

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<v Speaker 4>they were looking for Tim Cook to take some sort

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<v Speaker 4>of stand here, and he really didn't. You know. From

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<v Speaker 4>his perspective is he's scared to upset Trump and get

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs and other policies slapped onto Apple's business. So you'll

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<v Speaker 4>see him continue to do what he's doing because this

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<v Speaker 4>is not about taking a stand at this point for him,

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<v Speaker 4>This is about protecting the underlying business. And the results

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<v Speaker 4>speak for themselves. Underlying business seems pretty well protected, all right, like.

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<v Speaker 3>We like to do, and you know we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>go there. What do you think are the top two

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<v Speaker 3>questions that's got to be asked on this call?

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<v Speaker 4>They got to ask about AI and they got to

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<v Speaker 4>ask about succession. I'm sure they're not going to though,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean maybe AI, but like they're not going to

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<v Speaker 4>ask about succession and risk not being invited back next

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<v Speaker 4>quarter to ask more questions.

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<v Speaker 3>Are they going to ask about him being at the

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<v Speaker 3>White House to see the Millennia movie?

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<v Speaker 4>Like I said, they don't want to risk being banned

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<v Speaker 4>from asking questions next quarter, So no one's going to

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<v Speaker 4>ask anything that rocks the boat. All right, we'll see

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<v Speaker 4>I hope I'm wrong.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, great stuff as always, and we'll be looking for

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<v Speaker 3>your reporting after that call as well. He is Mark,

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<v Speaker 3>or he's thank you, Mark, Managing Editor for Global Consumer

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<v Speaker 3>Tech for Bloomberg News. Out there out there on the

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<v Speaker 3>West Coast.

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<v Speaker 1>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

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<v Speaker 1>up after this.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, catch

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's bring in Ed Ludlow. He's the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg TV. He joins us from our

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco bureau.

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<v Speaker 4>Ed.

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<v Speaker 1>The story from Mark German is out sales trouncing estimates

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<v Speaker 1>after iPhone fuels record quarter. Tim Cook called the demand

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<v Speaker 1>quote unprecedented. Is this all about the iPhone doing well

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<v Speaker 1>around the world?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, all about the iPhone, And in some ways it's

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<v Speaker 5>like an issue of chronology and timing.

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<v Speaker 6>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>Think about when Apple announces the iPhone seventeen generation and

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<v Speaker 5>we're all there in Cooper Tino for it, and then

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<v Speaker 5>it goes on sale when you have the holiday quarter,

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<v Speaker 5>so you know, actually it goes a little bit beyond that. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, this is where the Bloomberg terminal comes in useful.

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<v Speaker 5>So that is a big beat. You can just see

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<v Speaker 5>it looking at the headline on a dollar basis. But

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<v Speaker 5>not only is it nine percent above consensus even the

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<v Speaker 5>top end of the most bullish ranges on how this

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<v Speaker 5>iPhone would do, we're only about eighty one billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 5>I think it came in above eighty five billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 5>So they've done something. Either the phone has got traction

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<v Speaker 5>or they've done something smart with the timing of it

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<v Speaker 5>and it's sold well. The bit that's missing, of course,

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<v Speaker 5>is that that commentary does not have anything specific to

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<v Speaker 5>do with Greater China. We know the numbers in Greater

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<v Speaker 5>China are really good, but how did this iPhone do there?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, like, is it just WHOA just a good quarter

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<v Speaker 3>or do was it luck or was it really strategy?

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<v Speaker 4>Right?

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<v Speaker 5>I've understod I'm super cautious because sometimes we've relied on

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<v Speaker 5>third party data, like you know, I won't name it,

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<v Speaker 5>it would be a bit unfair, but there are various

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<v Speaker 5>third party data sets that say, oh no, Apple's doing

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<v Speaker 5>really bad.

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<v Speaker 1>And knows what you're talking about.

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<v Speaker 5>It's okay, okay, I'll stick to my guns, you know.

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<v Speaker 5>And then Apple comes around with earnings and the opposite

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<v Speaker 5>has been true on more than one occasion. But this occasion,

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<v Speaker 5>like the third party data, this sort of incremental and

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<v Speaker 5>anecdote or of people queuing up for the iPhone seventeen

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<v Speaker 5>in all markets, but like Greater China, it was kind

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<v Speaker 5>of there. So that's interesting. Where else do you want

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<v Speaker 5>to go? I mean this, you know, this is Apple.

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<v Speaker 5>There's anything we want to go to AI?

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<v Speaker 1>Because you want to.

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<v Speaker 5>Ask me about the thing that they have nothing to

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<v Speaker 5>say about that?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sure, thanks jam.

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<v Speaker 1>Every analyst has really pointed to that. I mean, we

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<v Speaker 1>can we can talk about the relationship that Apple has

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<v Speaker 1>with Google and Progemini. We could talk about all the

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<v Speaker 1>money going to Open AI potentially from Amazon and other companies,

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<v Speaker 1>about a potential one hundred billion dollar fundraising around. We

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<v Speaker 1>could talk about Apple relying on third parties rather than

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<v Speaker 1>building its own Is there a risk in doing that?

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<v Speaker 5>I go back to basics, and you know, I kind

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<v Speaker 5>of rely on Bloomberg's Mark Gumman, who is one of

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<v Speaker 5>the world's leading journalists when it comes to covering not

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<v Speaker 5>just Apple, but can Humor, electronics, and in the context

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<v Speaker 5>of this earnings print. What he's written is probably true

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<v Speaker 5>that Apple has done enough to mask over or allay

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<v Speaker 5>the concerns that investors have about a lack of progress

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<v Speaker 5>in AI as a product. You know, the reporting's quite clear,

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<v Speaker 5>and it's been announced now officially, right that at least

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<v Speaker 5>on the interim, Apple's AI generation of Siri will be

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<v Speaker 5>underpin underpinned by Gemini. And Mark's reported a lot about

0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:32.119
<v Speaker 5>the financials around that, right, it's a one billion perannum agreement.

0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.520
<v Speaker 5>We don't we don't and we won't get this sort

0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.080
<v Speaker 5>of announcement like here it is, here's the date it's coming,

0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.280
<v Speaker 5>and this is what it can do until it's here.

0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.160
<v Speaker 5>You know, that's not how Apple operates.

0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:50.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's just you know, I mean it's pretty like

0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:52.080
<v Speaker 3>where do you go? Where do you go?

0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:53.640
<v Speaker 4>You know?

0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:56.280
<v Speaker 3>Here we are looking. I mean, the stock isn't up

0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.520
<v Speaker 3>as much as it was earlier. We were talking about,

0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, more than a two percent gain I think

0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.240
<v Speaker 3>at its highs here in the aftermarket, it's just up

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.120
<v Speaker 3>about three quarters of one percentage point. What is it

0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.439
<v Speaker 3>that they need to do? Maybe on the call? Is

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.400
<v Speaker 3>it AI? Is it that this is sustainable. This is

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.280
<v Speaker 3>a strategy. This is you know, we figured out China,

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 3>Like what is it?

0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:20.599
<v Speaker 5>Well, you know that I didn't forgive me because I

0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:22.560
<v Speaker 5>was blogging. I didn't hear what you guys were talking

0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:27.000
<v Speaker 5>about just before. But in this very limited earnings release

0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 5>and statement, you guys maybe you went over the risk

0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:30.320
<v Speaker 5>factors and forward looking.

0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we talked about that. We talked about that, you know,

0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:34.920
<v Speaker 1>I talked about how you started pointing that out back

0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:36.280
<v Speaker 1>in May of last year.

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:38.880
<v Speaker 5>Middle in May of last year, I was sat next

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.160
<v Speaker 5>to the you two in New York studio, do you remember,

0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:42.840
<v Speaker 5>and we were like, oh, well, that's interesting, and they've

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 5>never said that before.

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.439
<v Speaker 1>But that was only your first report post Liberation Day.

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.800
<v Speaker 5>Right that. The only observation I'll make in line with

0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 5>that is that this release also says nothing about the

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 5>environment for memory chips. And you know, like memory chip

0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:58.680
<v Speaker 5>prices are very.

0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.239
<v Speaker 3>High, but their market was so sad, right.

0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 5>And their margins were pretty good, and there's a scarcity,

0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 5>and that the principal difference is like this, This is

0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.360
<v Speaker 5>why it's so fun to cover hardware companies, and it's

0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 5>a privilege to be a technology journalist when you get

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.800
<v Speaker 5>access to all these companies and speak to the CEOs.

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 5>If you're a very big company, you have leverage with

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.040
<v Speaker 5>your supply base. If a supplier has to choose, I've

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.320
<v Speaker 5>got this number of things, and I can only send

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.000
<v Speaker 5>them here, or I can send them there, or I

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 5>can split. It helps to be Apple, is what I'm saying.

0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 5>And there are companies that I've covered whose CEOs you know,

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 5>will privately just agonize over how difficult it is to

0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 5>convince supplies to give them the things they need. So

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:38.719
<v Speaker 5>on the call that will come up, you know, the

0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 5>cell sider likely to ask about it.

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.880
<v Speaker 1>But you know there are high prices, and then there's

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Apple dealing with high prices. And when I asked Mark

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.440
<v Speaker 1>this question about how they were able to successfully navigate

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.760
<v Speaker 1>these higher memory prices, he said, well, one they're Apple,

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>and two they buy so far in advance, and they

0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.080
<v Speaker 1>buy the components too that go in. So at a

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.959
<v Speaker 1>certain point ed it hit them right.

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:08.559
<v Speaker 5>Well, it's not just that the memory prices are high.

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.439
<v Speaker 5>The reason that memory prices are high is that historically

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 5>memory dram and and flash memory is a very cyclical

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 5>up and down business boom and bust. You know, That's

0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 5>what Iaan King would say, boom and bust In King

0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:26.760
<v Speaker 5>leads our semiconductor coverages right at at Bloomberg. And it

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 5>is correct that Apple's supply chain teams are its secret source.

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 5>That was Tim Cooks whole thing. He was coo like,

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.160
<v Speaker 5>that's what he was good at. But the reason prices

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 5>are high is because of scarcity of availability, you know,

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 5>because there is such demand for the equivalent chips that

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 5>are going to data centers. And so, like Mark's answer

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.000
<v Speaker 5>is appropriate. Apple has leverage and the ability of scale

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 5>to say like, okay, we have got ahead of this,

0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 5>and one would imagine that their supply chain team is

0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 5>sophisticated enough to have foreseen some of the things that

0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:00.040
<v Speaker 5>we're now experiencing in that man.

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 1>So one one the first thing Mark said to us,

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>I no, no, you were blogging ed and you were

0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 1>you were looking at the results. Was Tim Cook just

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 1>bought himself time? Tim Cook gets to keep his job.

0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:16.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's been a lot of questions about succession.

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 1>Mark says, That's one of two questions he would ask

0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>on the call. The other would be about AI. In

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 1>your view, was was his job not not at risk?

0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 1>But you know there are questions about who leads this

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:29.280
<v Speaker 1>company after Tim Cook.

0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 5>I am not Bloomberg's Mark Gum nor am I right?

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 5>Is that when Mark did that recent reporting and it's

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 5>been it's been over a period of time about which

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 5>executives are now more at the forefront of Apple's future,

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 5>he was crystal clear in that reporting that there is

0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 5>no suggestion that Tim Cook being replaced or stepping down

0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 5>or retiring is imm and you know that this was

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:06.840
<v Speaker 5>a longer term thing. What I would reflect on is

0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 5>the conversations that I have with people in industry and

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.080
<v Speaker 5>those that come on the show and talk about it,

0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 5>is you know, Tim Cook is the operator that many

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 5>people would want. In an environment like this where we

0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 5>still have trade and tariff considerations, the movement of goods

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.600
<v Speaker 5>between borders from point A to point B is quite difficult.

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 5>And as we just talked about, you know, like specifically

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.360
<v Speaker 5>memory pricing, that's within his you know, his range. This

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.480
<v Speaker 5>is not me speaking, This is how people would relay

0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 5>it to me. Mark when he goes on air and

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 5>when he writes, and again I'm not speaking on his behalf,

0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 5>he would talk a lot more about the product, you know,

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:49.360
<v Speaker 5>fresh products reiterated and renewed products and the product pipeline

0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 5>for the future, and right now, I don't know that

0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:55.600
<v Speaker 5>people are necessarily so worried about that, at least in

0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 5>my world, they are worried about when they're going to

0:16:57.760 --> 0:16:59.240
<v Speaker 5>get the software bit right with AI.

0:16:59.720 --> 0:16:59.920
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.360
<v Speaker 3>So it's interesting, you say AI. It's something we talked

0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.439
<v Speaker 3>about just briefly with Mark German. It's a story that

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.080
<v Speaker 3>he put out Apple Buys is really AI startup that

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 3>interprets facial movements. He's like, you know, interesting will help

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.560
<v Speaker 3>in terms of I guess product development, but not necessarily

0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 3>a big, big deal. But you know, what is the

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:21.800
<v Speaker 3>number one question from that they should be getting on

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 3>the call when it comes to AI.

0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:27.040
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, you know, if I had the opportunity to interview

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:28.960
<v Speaker 5>Tim Kirk, and let me be honest about it, I

0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:32.639
<v Speaker 5>haven't had that opportunity or in any other of Apple executive.

0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.280
<v Speaker 5>You know, the big question is in the future, what

0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.679
<v Speaker 5>is the form factor by which we interact with our

0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:44.959
<v Speaker 5>official intelligence, in particular voice based AI assistance? Right For

0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 5>the most part, I use and I don't know about

0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 5>you guys, but I use chat GPT's voice mode quite

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.880
<v Speaker 5>a lot on my phone, and I use other generative

0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:57.399
<v Speaker 5>AI tools through my laptops. And because I'm a nerd,

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.439
<v Speaker 5>and because Bloomberg issues me different things, I have my

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 5>own MacBook and I have a Windows based PC. Right,

0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.199
<v Speaker 5>there are other people that envisage a world where the

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 5>form factor device, the thing that we interact with is

0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:12.679
<v Speaker 5>not a phone. It's the glasses per Meta, And look

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:17.400
<v Speaker 5>at the surprise upside from Meta's earnings about aiglasses tripling.

0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.119
<v Speaker 5>You know, That's what i'd ask Apple, what do you

0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:22.760
<v Speaker 5>see in the future about how people use your AI?

0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 1>So and we have one time for one more question,

0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>and we'd be really remiss if we didn't ask you

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.199
<v Speaker 1>your view on Amazon. This news coming just late in

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 1>the day, switching gears a little bit still on AI.

0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Amazon talk and talks to invest fifty billion dollars and

0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.640
<v Speaker 1>open ai expandize. This could be part of a one

0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 1>hundred billion dollar funding round, which would value open ai

0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 1>at more than eight hundred billion dollars. When we're talking

0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.399
<v Speaker 1>about a funding round of one hundred billion dollars, I

0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:56.159
<v Speaker 1>mean we're talking about just the massive, massive scale. What

0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 1>does it mean that that Amazon could invest this much money.

0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:04.320
<v Speaker 5>Well, Amazon probably can invest that much money. You know,

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.320
<v Speaker 5>what we've seen is most of the hyperscalers that were

0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 5>wedded to one player have diversified, and Thropic and Microsoft

0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 5>have deepened their interaction. And Thropic was very heavily aligned

0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.880
<v Speaker 5>with Amazon. Google and Anthropic have very heavily aligned. Afropic

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:23.200
<v Speaker 5>relies on TPUs. Amazon, from a software perspective, has tried

0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.680
<v Speaker 5>to accommodate all the players on its Bedrock platform, which

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 5>is basically a workplace where you can either train or

0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:32.680
<v Speaker 5>build on top of existing models. So the financials are there,

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 5>like if you if people are watching that are investors

0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:38.080
<v Speaker 5>in those companies, phone me explain the dilution to me,

0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 5>explain the post and pre money valuation. But open ai

0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:47.760
<v Speaker 5>needs capital. It is coming from multiple places apparently, and

0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.720
<v Speaker 5>one would imagine based on the reporting that's been done

0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:54.359
<v Speaker 5>by Bloomberg and others, this is a big, large anchor

0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 5>round before a future IPO as well of some part

0:19:57.560 --> 0:19:58.679
<v Speaker 5>of the open ai entity.

0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 1>The scale is just other words, the amounts of money

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 1>that we're talking about right now.

0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:05.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, just kind of close our mind. Yeah, all right,

0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.800
<v Speaker 3>we get a run. We know you're gonna be we

0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:11.840
<v Speaker 3>know the Apple call, what the Analyson investors is coming

0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:13.480
<v Speaker 3>up in just about four and a half minutes time,

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.240
<v Speaker 3>and we know Ed'll be on it and our live blog.

0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:18.119
<v Speaker 3>We'll be tracking all of it at Ludlow. Thank you,

0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.680
<v Speaker 3>Thank you, of course, co host at Bloomberg Tech on

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.960
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg TV. Catch it at eleven am to noon with

0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:27.880
<v Speaker 3>Caroline Hi, another co host. It's always on Bloomberg TV

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:28.760
<v Speaker 3>Monday through Friday.

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live

0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.359
<v Speaker 2>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:43.560
<v Speaker 2>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:48.040
<v Speaker 2>New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 3>We want to talk a bit more about Tesla.

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Tom Ryan is lead equity analyst Global Autos at RBC

0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:55.760
<v Speaker 1>Capital Markets. Tom good to have you on the program

0:20:55.840 --> 0:20:59.000
<v Speaker 1>and joins us from New York. I want to start

0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 1>with the sort of the headlines out of the Tesla

0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:06.200
<v Speaker 1>call yesterday, as somebody who's followed the company for quite

0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:09.840
<v Speaker 1>a while were all surprised about the models and model acts, essentially,

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 1>in the words of Craig Trudell, being put out to pastor.

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:17.080
<v Speaker 6>Out no not at all. I think that was pretty

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:20.840
<v Speaker 6>much expected, right, I mean this company is moving to

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:27.160
<v Speaker 6>more towards autonomy. It's more of an AI investment, right, robotaxi, humanoids. Right,

0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:31.600
<v Speaker 6>the car business is in the past. Really, we've known

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 6>about this for a while now. Maybe it's the final

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:35.879
<v Speaker 6>nail in the confidence so to speak.

0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:38.399
<v Speaker 1>Well, wait, you just said that the car business is

0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:41.680
<v Speaker 1>Wait repeat what you said about the car business, because

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>I think people still even though they don't value the

0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.359
<v Speaker 1>company as a car company, but you know, it's still

0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:49.800
<v Speaker 1>thought of by many people as a car company. The

0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:51.280
<v Speaker 1>car business is what at Tesla?

0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, in terms of valuation, right, it's a one point

0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:59.399
<v Speaker 6>four trillion dollar market cap. Right, the most all of

0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.720
<v Speaker 6>new cars sales could ever be is something like two

0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:05.280
<v Speaker 6>point seven trillion dollars. They sell two percent of all

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:08.639
<v Speaker 6>the cars in the world. Right, So mathematically it's not

0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 6>a car company. Right, How do you get to one

0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 6>point four trillion dollars of value?

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:13.280
<v Speaker 4>Then?

0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:13.800
<v Speaker 1>What is it?

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:19.359
<v Speaker 6>Clearly that it's a it's an autonomy company, right, it's humanoids,

0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:23.399
<v Speaker 6>it's robotaxi. Right, it's not a private car that you

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 6>and you and I buy and drive around.

0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:26.480
<v Speaker 4>Oh, that's it.

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:29.280
<v Speaker 6>You'll never get to one point four trillion dollars of value.

0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:32.800
<v Speaker 3>That's because those business segments are already contributing so much

0:22:32.880 --> 0:22:33.800
<v Speaker 3>to the top line.

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:36.919
<v Speaker 1>She's being sarcastic, Tom, she's being sarcastical.

0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:39.000
<v Speaker 3>Look at the FA page on the Bloomberg. You know

0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:43.040
<v Speaker 3>where they make money right now. Automotive eighty six billion

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 3>in revenue expected in the twenty twenty six year and

0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:50.359
<v Speaker 3>then energy generation and stewage that's almost Yeah, it's a

0:22:50.359 --> 0:22:52.920
<v Speaker 3>little bit more than seventeen billions, So that's where they

0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:57.800
<v Speaker 3>make it. I get what everybody's saying. And I feel

0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:00.240
<v Speaker 3>like Tesla's always been like, well, wait, not what we're doing,

0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:02.560
<v Speaker 3>but what we're going to be doing. But how long

0:23:02.600 --> 0:23:04.600
<v Speaker 3>do we have to wait to have it grow into

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 3>that valuation that is much more like a tech company.

0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:11.720
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you have a long way to go to get there. Absolutely,

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:14.320
<v Speaker 6>But I think the way to look at this is

0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 6>not the bottom up, right, how many cars are selling each.

0:23:17.520 --> 0:23:18.359
<v Speaker 4>Quarter, et cetera.

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 6>But you look top down, what is the market value

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:27.960
<v Speaker 6>of robotaxis? It is enormous, Right, It's a much more

0:23:28.200 --> 0:23:31.880
<v Speaker 6>economical and it's a much more efficient mode of transportation,

0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:35.720
<v Speaker 6>and it's going to generate a lot more revenues. Look

0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 6>how much you spend on ubers relative to what you

0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:41.320
<v Speaker 6>were willing to spend on owning a private car. And

0:23:41.359 --> 0:23:43.840
<v Speaker 6>then the humanoid space, which I don't know if that's

0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 6>the right word humanoid. I think it's better to look

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:50.400
<v Speaker 6>at robotics. Okay, so many industries are being upended by this.

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:53.720
<v Speaker 6>The tams for both of these are in the multiple

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:58.120
<v Speaker 6>trillions of value. All Tesla needs to do is capture

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:02.600
<v Speaker 6>small percentages of this to get to its market capitalization

0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 6>that it has today. So I get it. This is

0:24:05.520 --> 0:24:07.880
<v Speaker 6>far in the future. But I mean you could said

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:09.800
<v Speaker 6>the same thing about a lot of companies. Right, Netflix

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.919
<v Speaker 6>when it was renting DVDs. Right, it's not doing that anymore.

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:14.960
<v Speaker 6>It's doing something totally different, and I haven't years.

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:17.959
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's a really good looking I think

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:21.120
<v Speaker 1>that's a good corollary. And at a certain point Netflix

0:24:21.160 --> 0:24:24.640
<v Speaker 1>stopped sending DVDs by mail. It wasn't that long ago,

0:24:25.040 --> 0:24:27.439
<v Speaker 1>But before they did that, they made it very difficult

0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:29.680
<v Speaker 1>to actually, you know, sort of subscribe to that. They

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:34.639
<v Speaker 1>wanted to really push people to the digital video on demand,

0:24:34.720 --> 0:24:37.639
<v Speaker 1>which is obviously the right direction if you were to

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:40.240
<v Speaker 1>do that for Tesla, though, then then why even bother

0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:44.159
<v Speaker 1>selling cars to consumers right now? Why not just focus

0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:47.959
<v Speaker 1>on creating these fleets of robotaxis and work on autonomy,

0:24:48.000 --> 0:24:51.400
<v Speaker 1>work on robotics, and really go all in there.

0:24:53.359 --> 0:24:56.320
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think you can't really have one without the other. Right.

0:24:56.440 --> 0:25:01.200
<v Speaker 6>Remember FSD the software that powers the robotaxis, especially unsupervised,

0:25:01.600 --> 0:25:04.080
<v Speaker 6>it comes from all the millions of miles and data

0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:08.360
<v Speaker 6>collected from the cars that have FSD or have autopilot, etc.

0:25:08.680 --> 0:25:11.600
<v Speaker 6>So it's a flywheel. You need to have the data

0:25:11.720 --> 0:25:15.280
<v Speaker 6>to build upon that. And then once you have the robotaxis,

0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:19.119
<v Speaker 6>there is a theory that that could then go backwards

0:25:19.160 --> 0:25:22.800
<v Speaker 6>and make people buy more cars, and the subscription for

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:27.439
<v Speaker 6>FSD on private cars could be another profit center. So

0:25:28.840 --> 0:25:31.320
<v Speaker 6>while I do agree that in the year twenty fifty,

0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:33.639
<v Speaker 6>I don't know if selling boxes with wheels is going

0:25:33.720 --> 0:25:36.560
<v Speaker 6>to be the meaningful driver of value for Tesla. I

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:39.639
<v Speaker 6>don't think it will. I think in the evolution of

0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:43.160
<v Speaker 6>the company, you need this to build the next generations

0:25:43.200 --> 0:25:47.200
<v Speaker 6>and to get to these autonomy innovations that they're trying

0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:47.679
<v Speaker 6>to achieve.

0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:50.080
<v Speaker 3>All right, So when does Tesla grow into this valuation

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 3>I mean, when does the reality growing like match up

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:55.320
<v Speaker 3>with the valuation. I'm looking at a pe. This is

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:57.560
<v Speaker 3>just one metric three forty five, so three hundred and

0:25:57.560 --> 0:26:03.399
<v Speaker 3>forty five times current earnings, almost two hundred times future earnings.

0:26:03.440 --> 0:26:05.200
<v Speaker 3>So how long do we You said it's gonna take

0:26:05.200 --> 0:26:06.520
<v Speaker 3>a long time. How long?

0:26:08.040 --> 0:26:10.800
<v Speaker 6>So my evaluation, right, I have FSD. I look at

0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.959
<v Speaker 6>it at twenty thirty five, ROBOTAXI I look at it

0:26:14.000 --> 0:26:17.080
<v Speaker 6>on twenty forty, right, Humanoids, I look at it at

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:21.160
<v Speaker 6>twenty fifty basis and then I discount those back, right,

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:24.439
<v Speaker 6>So you may have to wait a long time to

0:26:24.760 --> 0:26:28.120
<v Speaker 6>actually see the earnings where it results in a multiple

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:32.440
<v Speaker 6>that's a market multiple, right, But that's you could say

0:26:32.440 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 6>that about a lot of companies. Right Again, I think

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:38.359
<v Speaker 6>the way to look at it is, what do you

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 6>think about these and markets? And these you know, robotaxis

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:46.840
<v Speaker 6>the market and humanoids is a market, and what penetration

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:48.960
<v Speaker 6>do you think these guys could achieve?

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:50.720
<v Speaker 3>Is that captured?

0:26:50.760 --> 0:26:53.080
<v Speaker 6>And where the stock is now? That I think is

0:26:53.119 --> 0:26:53.919
<v Speaker 6>the way to think about it.

0:26:53.920 --> 0:26:56.000
<v Speaker 3>Well, the stock right now down about three points seven

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:59.119
<v Speaker 3>percent four hundred and fifteen dollars a share. Tom n

0:26:59.200 --> 0:27:02.320
<v Speaker 3>Ryan thinks so much. Appreciate it. Lead equity analyst Global

0:27:02.359 --> 0:27:04.320
<v Speaker 3>Autos over at RBC Capital Markets.

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.440
<v Speaker 1>Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:27:08.520 --> 0:27:09.480
<v Speaker 1>up after this.

0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Catch us

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:20.639
<v Speaker 2>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 2>on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

0:27:24.400 --> 0:27:27.760
<v Speaker 1>Or watch us live on YouTube. A lot to get

0:27:27.760 --> 0:27:30.240
<v Speaker 1>to with Lauren Goodwin. She's an economist. She's Chief market

0:27:30.280 --> 0:27:32.959
<v Speaker 1>strategist at New York Life Investments. She joins us here

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 1>in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. We kind of went

0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.760
<v Speaker 1>through a lot right there, but I want to get

0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to sort of those individually. But before we do that,

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:44.160
<v Speaker 1>I just want you to answer for us. The biggest

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:46.359
<v Speaker 1>risk out there for markets right now that you see

0:27:46.359 --> 0:27:46.680
<v Speaker 1>and the.

0:27:46.640 --> 0:27:50.560
<v Speaker 7>Economy right now, it's if in a couple of weeks

0:27:50.600 --> 0:27:53.280
<v Speaker 7>we have an inflation report that shows inflation is moving

0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:55.600
<v Speaker 7>back up. I think that the reason that the market

0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:59.080
<v Speaker 7>has been able to digest so many big developments and

0:27:59.119 --> 0:28:03.240
<v Speaker 7>so many questions uncertainties is because we have contained inflation.

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:06.639
<v Speaker 7>If that data looks a little different, then the Fed's

0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 7>dynamic looks different, people's economic forecasts look different. I think

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:13.159
<v Speaker 7>it really disrupts the frankly, the consensus that the market

0:28:13.200 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 7>has right now.

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 1>She didn't say geopolitics.

0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:16.399
<v Speaker 3>You didn't say geopologics.

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:17.680
<v Speaker 1>I saw you geopology.

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:19.399
<v Speaker 3>I want to want I want to come back to that,

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:21.440
<v Speaker 3>but I want to go back to what you said

0:28:21.440 --> 0:28:25.600
<v Speaker 3>about inflation, because J. Powell, FED Chair, of course said

0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:29.240
<v Speaker 3>it pretty confident about the mandate, right, the dual mandate

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 3>of the Federal Reserve, and in terms of inflation and

0:28:32.119 --> 0:28:34.960
<v Speaker 3>in terms of the labor market. I mean pretty confident,

0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 3>don't you think I do? And I, for what it's worth,

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 3>I agree with him. Okay, our base case economic scenario

0:28:41.560 --> 0:28:44.360
<v Speaker 3>calls for inflation to stay around where it is, maybe

0:28:44.360 --> 0:28:46.320
<v Speaker 3>move a little closer to three percent, a little over.

0:28:46.920 --> 0:28:50.320
<v Speaker 3>That's not a horrifically bad scenario. And that's probably a

0:28:50.320 --> 0:28:52.040
<v Speaker 3>scenario where you get one or two cuts from the

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:54.360
<v Speaker 3>FED this year and they stay put that and for

0:28:54.440 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 3>markets in the economy, that's really still a goldilocks backdrop.

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 3>Oh louyjah, Because I have to say, going through what

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:05.800
<v Speaker 3>he said, especially initially but even throughout, that's what I

0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:08.960
<v Speaker 3>came to mind, Lauren is goldilocks, like this is a

0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:10.880
<v Speaker 3>pretty good spot to be in, right.

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:12.440
<v Speaker 7>It is a good spot, and that's why I think that.

0:29:12.560 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 7>I mean, look, geopolitics would be a way more interesting

0:29:15.320 --> 0:29:18.000
<v Speaker 7>and fun key risk to talk about. But when it

0:29:18.040 --> 0:29:21.200
<v Speaker 7>comes to what really disrupts the market, we've been talking

0:29:21.240 --> 0:29:23.880
<v Speaker 7>on the desk constantly that six months ago it was

0:29:23.920 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 7>impossible to have any sort of certainty or any sort

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:30.240
<v Speaker 7>of view. Now it's really difficult to get out of consensus.

0:29:30.360 --> 0:29:33.000
<v Speaker 7>Most people are expecting a pretty good growth backdrop, but

0:29:33.080 --> 0:29:37.200
<v Speaker 7>pretty good earnings backdrop thanks to a FED that's moderately easing,

0:29:37.680 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 7>good fiscal policy support out of keep.

0:29:39.520 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 3>Hearing about the tax refunds that everybody's going to get

0:29:41.720 --> 0:29:44.680
<v Speaker 3>and tax advantages for corporations.

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:46.960
<v Speaker 7>A little bit of dollar weekening, a lot of portfolio

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:50.680
<v Speaker 7>sort of diversification and rebalancing. That's our view too, But

0:29:50.720 --> 0:29:53.080
<v Speaker 7>it's difficult to break outside of that consensus. And I

0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 7>think the one thing that really disrupts the consensus for us,

0:29:56.240 --> 0:29:59.400
<v Speaker 7>but for the FED as well is if that sort

0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 7>of single idea that we will get a couple of

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:04.080
<v Speaker 7>rate cuts and certainly rates wouldn't be moving back the

0:30:04.120 --> 0:30:07.920
<v Speaker 7>other direction just gets questioned. I think it also, you know,

0:30:07.920 --> 0:30:09.600
<v Speaker 7>we talk a lot about the short end of the

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:12.200
<v Speaker 7>curve with the Fed's policy rate on FED Day especially,

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 7>but inflation starts to call into question this conversation that

0:30:18.160 --> 0:30:21.640
<v Speaker 7>FED is having about independence and really impacts the long

0:30:21.760 --> 0:30:24.560
<v Speaker 7>end of the curve. Now, so much of not only

0:30:24.560 --> 0:30:27.160
<v Speaker 7>the affordability question in the US, but also risk assets

0:30:27.160 --> 0:30:29.800
<v Speaker 7>are priced off of the long end. And so it's

0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:31.960
<v Speaker 7>a boring answer, but I think that inflation number is

0:30:32.040 --> 0:30:34.720
<v Speaker 7>just a key to keeping the market as well behaved

0:30:34.720 --> 0:30:35.240
<v Speaker 7>as it's been.

0:30:35.360 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>So why why aren't geopolitics, to you the number one risk?

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:40.680
<v Speaker 1>We have an armada according to the President heading to

0:30:40.720 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 1>Iran yesterday, these the President and the Iranians were trading

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 1>barbs about that. I think has some people concerned that

0:30:51.680 --> 0:30:56.320
<v Speaker 1>things could escalate, potentially what we saw in Venezuela something similar.

0:30:56.400 --> 0:30:59.760
<v Speaker 1>We've already bombed that country.

0:31:01.240 --> 0:31:04.720
<v Speaker 7>Two parts to this answer. The first is that there's

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:07.640
<v Speaker 7>no doubt in my mind that the change in the

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 7>geopolitical backdrop is meaningfully impacting the way we need to

0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:14.400
<v Speaker 7>think about portfolio construction. No doubt in my mind this

0:31:14.560 --> 0:31:18.440
<v Speaker 7>is not about a single administration. This is a fifteen

0:31:18.520 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 7>year post financial crisis.

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:23.360
<v Speaker 3>In the flows right starting and elsewhere, and it's.

0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 7>Been exacerbated by a pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.320
<v Speaker 7>and all these things that just brought more attention to

0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:31.560
<v Speaker 7>the fact that supply chains are vulnerable and that you

0:31:31.640 --> 0:31:35.600
<v Speaker 7>might want technology, healthcare, energy, and a couple of other

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:39.320
<v Speaker 7>things at home, and that sort of the competition that

0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:41.719
<v Speaker 7>that's bringing that matters. That's why we are seeing so

0:31:42.120 --> 0:31:47.360
<v Speaker 7>many countries investing in and really trying to secure commodities

0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:48.719
<v Speaker 7>in certain other supply chains.

0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 3>So when you say those sectors, are you saying diversification

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 3>here in the US in terms of your exposure? Are

0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:55.840
<v Speaker 3>you saying also diversification outside the US?

0:31:56.080 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 7>I'm saying that countries and companies are realizing that we

0:31:59.040 --> 0:32:01.200
<v Speaker 7>had just in time so apply chains for those things.

0:32:01.240 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 7>And unlike maybe many other goods and services, those are

0:32:03.920 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 7>ones that you have to have secure access to it,

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:09.400
<v Speaker 7>not at home than somewhere else. And so that's impacting

0:32:09.520 --> 0:32:12.480
<v Speaker 7>the way we think about a global portfolio in a

0:32:12.640 --> 0:32:16.760
<v Speaker 7>major way. But when I think about individual risks, they

0:32:16.920 --> 0:32:20.280
<v Speaker 7>certainly matter for the societies in which they happen, for

0:32:20.720 --> 0:32:22.520
<v Speaker 7>human beings, for the way that we think about the

0:32:22.560 --> 0:32:25.480
<v Speaker 7>world in general. But when I think about what disrupts

0:32:25.480 --> 0:32:30.000
<v Speaker 7>the market, if you have US companies printing reasonable profits,

0:32:30.040 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 7>then what happens to oil prices when so much energy

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:36.360
<v Speaker 7>production has come online in the US doesn't matter nearly

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:38.400
<v Speaker 7>the same way that it used to. And so again

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:41.000
<v Speaker 7>I'm not saying that it doesn't matter. It wouldn't prompt volatility,

0:32:41.000 --> 0:32:44.000
<v Speaker 7>but those tend to be shorter lived unless they disrupt

0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:46.160
<v Speaker 7>that market consensus in the way I was.

0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:48.280
<v Speaker 3>But the only thing I would say is those supply chains, right,

0:32:48.280 --> 0:32:51.440
<v Speaker 3>they don't move overnight. And we've talked to lots of

0:32:51.520 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 3>CEOs that yeah, I mean they are thinking about supply

0:32:55.280 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 3>chains around the world, like to where they sell. But

0:32:58.440 --> 0:33:00.880
<v Speaker 3>some of this build, whether it's manufacturing here in the

0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:04.640
<v Speaker 3>US right to reduce our exposure overseas. None of this

0:33:04.720 --> 0:33:05.880
<v Speaker 3>happens overnight.

0:33:06.000 --> 0:33:08.080
<v Speaker 7>Oh that's right. That's why I think it's become more

0:33:08.120 --> 0:33:10.800
<v Speaker 7>of a part of the base case allocation question for

0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:12.480
<v Speaker 7>investors and less of a risk.

0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:12.960
<v Speaker 2>Now.

0:33:13.000 --> 0:33:15.400
<v Speaker 7>One thing I think, though, that's really interesting about the

0:33:15.440 --> 0:33:19.280
<v Speaker 7>business business decision that you're bringing up is and I

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.200
<v Speaker 7>was speaking about this last last night, we had a

0:33:22.240 --> 0:33:25.000
<v Speaker 7>global roundtable of our investment leads talking about some of

0:33:25.040 --> 0:33:27.160
<v Speaker 7>these sticky issues, and one of the things that we

0:33:27.160 --> 0:33:30.720
<v Speaker 7>were speaking to was you have a again a lot

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:35.880
<v Speaker 7>of investor consensus around a constructive economic backdrop investment, et cetera.

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:39.840
<v Speaker 7>But it hinges on you know, the top very small

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:42.680
<v Speaker 7>percent of consumers deciding that they're still going to spend.

0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:45.920
<v Speaker 7>It hinges on businesses continuing to make the decision that

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:48.920
<v Speaker 7>it is worth investing in these areas that are becoming

0:33:48.920 --> 0:33:50.880
<v Speaker 7>more and more fragile. It's a little bit of a

0:33:51.080 --> 0:33:54.600
<v Speaker 7>of a behavioral question, very difficult to answer in the aggregate.

0:33:54.840 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 7>And so though I think that that inflation number is

0:33:58.400 --> 0:34:00.680
<v Speaker 7>or that inflation dynamic is one of the kept the

0:34:00.720 --> 0:34:03.640
<v Speaker 7>markets the most stable, you could see how over the

0:34:03.680 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 7>course of the year worries could build up.

0:34:06.640 --> 0:34:06.840
<v Speaker 4>Again.

0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:08.680
<v Speaker 7>It's not our base case, but I think it's a

0:34:08.840 --> 0:34:10.239
<v Speaker 7>very reasonable question to raise.

0:34:10.440 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 1>We are going to be speaking with Josh Green in

0:34:12.640 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 1>just a minute. He wrote the Bloomberg Business Week cover

0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:17.879
<v Speaker 1>story on Gavin Newsom, who we just heard from with

0:34:17.920 --> 0:34:22.240
<v Speaker 1>our own Brad Stone in a fireside chat. Governor Newsom

0:34:22.320 --> 0:34:25.040
<v Speaker 1>said during that chat that markets and their negative reactions

0:34:25.040 --> 0:34:27.760
<v Speaker 1>to some policies have been a check on the president.

0:34:28.000 --> 0:34:31.839
<v Speaker 1>Do you agree with that? It's not and I don't

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:33.400
<v Speaker 1>mean it to be a political question. It's just like

0:34:33.480 --> 0:34:36.200
<v Speaker 1>we have seen just the reality and the reality. But

0:34:36.280 --> 0:34:38.279
<v Speaker 1>we saw the president, you know, in April said the

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:41.840
<v Speaker 1>bond market got yippie. We did see him soften his

0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:45.320
<v Speaker 1>stance in Davos post a selloff last week, stopped in

0:34:45.360 --> 0:34:49.080
<v Speaker 1>his stance toward Greenland. People accused him then of that,

0:34:49.160 --> 0:34:50.399
<v Speaker 1>of tackling on that.

0:34:51.560 --> 0:34:55.200
<v Speaker 7>I do believe that the market is an incredibly important

0:34:55.760 --> 0:34:59.719
<v Speaker 7>constraint on not just this administration, but frankly anymore on

0:34:59.760 --> 0:35:03.480
<v Speaker 7>the economy. One just to give an example of something

0:35:03.480 --> 0:35:06.840
<v Speaker 7>that we've been researching really in depth, is the concept

0:35:06.840 --> 0:35:09.160
<v Speaker 7>that you've spoken about a lot of the key shaped economy.

0:35:09.200 --> 0:35:13.800
<v Speaker 7>You have sort of wealthier consumer spending, the lower income

0:35:13.800 --> 0:35:16.640
<v Speaker 7>consumers really really struggling in this environment. And people say, well,

0:35:16.640 --> 0:35:19.400
<v Speaker 7>that doesn't really matter for the market. I beg to differ.

0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:24.080
<v Speaker 7>Not only has it impacted sort of the political backdrop

0:35:24.160 --> 0:35:27.280
<v Speaker 7>in a meaningful way, but what it's done, more importantly

0:35:27.320 --> 0:35:30.400
<v Speaker 7>to your question, is it's brought what happens in the

0:35:30.440 --> 0:35:33.839
<v Speaker 7>market closer to what happens in the real economy. If

0:35:33.840 --> 0:35:37.399
<v Speaker 7>we see the ten year run up and a ten

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:39.520
<v Speaker 7>to fifteen to twenty percent correction in the S and

0:35:39.520 --> 0:35:43.839
<v Speaker 7>P five hundred relative to wealth for these wealthy spenders

0:35:43.960 --> 0:35:46.240
<v Speaker 7>two years ago, that's not a big deal. The market's

0:35:46.280 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 7>been so constructive. But if they pull back spending from

0:35:50.640 --> 0:35:53.640
<v Speaker 7>their pockets by five, ten, fifteen percent as a result,

0:35:53.960 --> 0:35:56.520
<v Speaker 7>that's a major hit to this economy right now. That's

0:35:56.560 --> 0:35:59.400
<v Speaker 7>a major change in people's expectations.

0:35:59.440 --> 0:36:01.600
<v Speaker 3>I love you because I feel like we all so

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:04.520
<v Speaker 3>many people point, well, the market another record, this is great,

0:36:04.600 --> 0:36:07.920
<v Speaker 3>this is all good. But we've also done some reporting

0:36:07.920 --> 0:36:11.120
<v Speaker 3>about how much of the consumer spending is that wealthier group.

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:14.600
<v Speaker 3>One last question, Chris Waller fed governor one of the

0:36:14.600 --> 0:36:17.600
<v Speaker 3>descents yesterday, the other one Stephen Myron, which we expected

0:36:17.600 --> 0:36:21.239
<v Speaker 3>to be a descent. Having said that, is that his

0:36:21.400 --> 0:36:24.600
<v Speaker 3>move in your view, that he really wants to be

0:36:24.600 --> 0:36:25.120
<v Speaker 3>fed chair.

0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:29.279
<v Speaker 7>I have no idea, but I do think that we're

0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:33.319
<v Speaker 7>very lucky as a sort of investing populist that right

0:36:33.400 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 7>now there is still actually real debate about whether the

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:42.400
<v Speaker 7>policy rate should be one or two twenty five bases.

0:36:42.440 --> 0:36:44.360
<v Speaker 3>So that doesn't say to you that maybe that's a

0:36:44.400 --> 0:36:48.680
<v Speaker 3>sign of the FED not being independent. Not yet, Okay,

0:36:48.760 --> 0:36:49.279
<v Speaker 3>not yet.

0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:52.560
<v Speaker 7>That's what I want to ask that it's such an

0:36:52.600 --> 0:36:55.280
<v Speaker 7>important question, but we're still in the range where debate

0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:55.960
<v Speaker 7>is reasonable.

0:36:56.120 --> 0:36:57.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, debate's good. We love debate.

0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:00.799
<v Speaker 1>Lauren Goodwin, economists and chief market strategy at New York

0:37:00.840 --> 0:37:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Life Investments, joining us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio.

0:37:04.480 --> 0:37:09.840
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:37:09.960 --> 0:37:13.680
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0:37:13.719 --> 0:37:17.760
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