1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome back to Drilled. I'm Amy Westervelt. In 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: a little under a week the annual UN Climate Summit, 3 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: the Conference of the Parties. It's called that because these 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: are all of the people who are party to the 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or the unf Triple C, 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: and they meet every year to talk about what their 7 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 1: governments are going to do about climate change. This is 8 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: year thirty and I think it's fair to say that 9 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: this process is facing a real crisis of legitimacy at 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: the moment. This year, the US government has barred any 11 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: of its officials from attending to negotiate, so that should 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: be interesting. For the last couple of years, the gloves 13 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: have been completely off when it comes to fossil fuel 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: executives being involved in this process. 15 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: We had first COP. 16 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: Twenty eight in Abu Dhabi, where the president of the 17 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: national oil company was also the President of the Climate Summit, 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: and then last year in Baku in Azerbaijan, where similarly, 19 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: loads of folks involved in the petroleum business were part 20 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: of the COP organizing committee and there were just blatant 21 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: oil deals happening all over the conference. This year's COP 22 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: is being held in the Brazilian Amazon, which is quite interesting, 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: and the Brazilian government and the conference organizing committee have 24 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: really made a commitment to information integrity around climate. They 25 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: want to highlight this issue. They would like to see 26 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: something around information integrity actually being adopted into the final 27 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: commitments coming out of this COP and they have made 28 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: a big commitment to keeping things like climate denial out 29 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: of this conference. However, as we know on this show, 30 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: there are lots of different ways that disinformation can make 31 00:01:55,440 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: its way into climate conversations, and what we're going to 32 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 1: talk about today is the way that climate obstruction makes 33 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: its way into international negotiations. So not just the cop 34 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: but also the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 2: These are not, you know, super. 36 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: Objective, uncorrupted and uncorruptible processes, as much as they are 37 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 1: often described that way, and as much as we might 38 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: like for them to be. So today a very interesting 39 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: conversation with Kerrie Duprick from University of Geneva and Eduardo 40 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: Viola from the Institute of International Relations in Brazil about 41 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: how climate obstruction shows up in international negotiations. That conversation 42 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: is coming up after this quick break. 43 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to start with the very very basics, which 44 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 3: is to have you guys define for people what is 45 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 3: the UN Framework conventioned on Climate Change and the Inner 46 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 3: Governmental Panel on Climate Change and. 47 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 2: Why are we looking at these bodies for climate instruction. 48 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 4: The United Nations Frame or Convention on Climate Change is 49 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 4: the basic document, the foundational document of the climate regime. 50 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 5: The most important thing. 51 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 4: Is it settled the goal that humanity should reduce emissions 52 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 4: for avoiding dangerous climate change. This was very important document 53 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 4: signed in nineteen ninety two, was a very important example 54 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 4: of multilateralms at the end of the Cold War and 55 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 4: with the optimistic spirit, let's say, of great potential of 56 00:03:58,440 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 4: human collaboration. 57 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 6: Gay and we have the unit to policy because the IPCC, 58 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 6: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was established in nineteen 59 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 6: eighty eight before the unf T policy was established to 60 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 6: build the case scientifically for an international climate negotiations. And 61 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 6: since the nineties, the IPCC has been producing main assessment reports. 62 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 6: So now we are entering the seventh assessment cycle and 63 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 6: all those reports and assessments have been the scientific basis 64 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 6: of the negotiations. That's why the IPCC does play a 65 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 6: key role in how we understand the climate problems as 66 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 6: well as the solutions. It's being discussed a lot in 67 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 6: the negotiations and that's why we also wanted to include 68 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 6: it because it's quite related and we often see that 69 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 6: many of the x spirts, the government representatives, they actually 70 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 6: travel from IPCC to n f T COOCY meeting, so 71 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 6: there is a clear connection and links between those two institutions. 72 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 2: Great, okay, and you mentioned in the chapter that there's 73 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 2: only kind of recently been research that's laid out of 74 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: framework for looking at obstruction in the unf Triple C. 75 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 2: Can you say a little bit more about that. What 76 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 2: is that research and what is the framework for looking 77 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: at obstruction? 78 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:33,679 Speaker 6: So there has been already quite some research on climate 79 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 6: obstruction in the unf tpolcy by Johanna Deeblett, for instance, 80 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 6: but they were focusing on some specific countries. And what 81 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 6: we've seen with the publication recently by Danie Lee Phelson 82 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 6: and her colleagues is these kind of first attempts at 83 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 6: having a comprehensive framework of what climate obstruction means in 84 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 6: the unf T policy and in their paper publishing Global 85 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 6: Environmental Politics, they do identify four different main ways to 86 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 6: do obstruction, one being limiting the scope of an issue, 87 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 6: whether it's being only discussed within a dialogue, whether it's 88 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 6: going to lead to some decisions that parties are supposed 89 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 6: to take into account. We have also the question of 90 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 6: reducing transparency in terms of how much data is available 91 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 6: to understand a specific problem. Knowing that the authors actually 92 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 6: use the case of loss and damage in their study. 93 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 6: We have also questions around manipulating language. How are we 94 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 6: going to define and speak about loss in damage? And 95 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 6: for instance, there is this interesting case in the negotiations 96 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 6: where the negotiations with use and speak of loss and 97 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 6: damage in the same and with capital letters, whereas in 98 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 6: the IPCC and in some of the technical discussions in 99 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 6: the UNFTY policy they well mentioned losses and damages, so 100 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 6: using the plural and lower cases. And the final element 101 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 6: is the question of promoting non transformative solutions, so solutions 102 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 6: that do not necessarily question the structural aspects and reasons 103 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 6: that are responsible for the climate crisis we're in. 104 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would like to add the kind of more 105 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 4: structural dimension of the struct that is, what are the 106 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 4: basis of the behavior of states, And it's a lot 107 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 4: related to some strong structural dimasion, like for example, the 108 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:03,239 Speaker 4: carbon intensity of their economists, the share of global carbon issues, 109 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 4: the capita emissions, the dependence of their economists of fossive fuels. 110 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 4: So those issues are not a matter of negotiation, but 111 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 4: they shape the behavior of most the states, not all 112 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 4: the states, but most the states. And so there is 113 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 4: is always present in the negotiation that the states don't 114 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 4: want to do. 115 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 5: For example, if they have high carbon. 116 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 4: Intensity in their economy, don't want to reduce the carbon intensity, 117 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: or if they have a trajectory of growing carbon emissions, 118 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 4: they don't want to diminish a growing trajectory of their 119 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 4: carbonymission and so on. 120 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 2: Right, and that comes up in the IPCC as well. 121 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 2: Right that they the higher well at least the fossil 122 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 2: fuel producers or the bigger agg producers tend to bring 123 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 2: those issues in at the IPCC level as well, Right, 124 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 2: not just at the cops for. 125 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 6: Both, yes, totally and maybe to name a few what 126 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 6: we have seen from different studies, I mean, we have 127 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 6: the usual suspects like Saudi Arabia offerens, and there has 128 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 6: been a lot of work on how the SODIA is 129 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 6: trying to obstruct the deliberations within the UNFT policy and 130 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 6: the IPCC. But we have also seen, notably around questions 131 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 6: of loss and damage equity issues, the United States as 132 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 6: well European countries also being more and more critical about 133 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 6: acknowledging what it means to take seriously, especially financially, what 134 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 6: it means to take loss and damage and compensation seriously. 135 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 6: But we have also seen global seuce countries as well 136 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 6: and Edward who probably knows better, but also countries like 137 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 6: China India also tend to try to put more emphasis 138 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 6: on their right to development, not acknowledging that today they 139 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 6: also are big economies and also put out far more 140 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 6: than they did ten years ago. 141 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: M yeah, Actually, I wanted to ask you to define 142 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: the principle of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities. 143 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 2: Can you define what that means and how it gets 144 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 2: leveraged in these negotiations and IBCC. 145 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 4: I mean, this is a key thriller of the Rio Convention, 146 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 4: but it is vague, okay, and depart from dividing the 147 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 4: world in a very simplified world develop the countries and 148 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 4: developing countries okay, And so it doesn't caused that developing 149 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 4: countries are extremely stratified. I mean in terms of capital income. 150 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 4: So this is one of the problems of the Rio 151 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 4: Convention that this has not used the classification of countries 152 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 4: of the World Bank that is much better, much sophistical, 153 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 4: and classify the countries in four levels high income, high 154 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 4: mid the Lincoln, low middle Lincoln, and low income. 155 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 5: Okay, So one problem with. 156 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 4: This principle is how high mid the Lincoln countries use 157 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 4: being in the category of developing countries for avoiding tanking 158 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 4: significant responsibilities. Okay, but the principle say that everybody is 159 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 4: responsible for climate change, but some countries are more responsible, 160 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 4: and some countries have the obligation. The countries that are 161 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 4: more responsible that have produced historically the idea historically is 162 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,319 Speaker 4: the data well, a lot of things remained vague, so 163 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 4: the interpretation of the principle became. 164 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 5: A major role in the dynamic of the convege. 165 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 4: In my view, this is one of the weakest port 166 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 4: not the principle, but the fact that there was not 167 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 4: a more complex classification of developing countries. 168 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 6: What we can also add is that the signature of 169 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 6: the Various agreement in twenty fifteen kind of changed a bit. 170 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 6: How CIBI there is being interpreted and discussed because it 171 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 6: adds in the light of national circumstances. And that's kind 172 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 6: of supposed another of those very vague expressions that you 173 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 6: find in the Paris Agreement and in the unit people see, 174 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 6: But it is supposed to highlight the fact that some 175 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 6: economies now in some countries do play a big role 176 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 6: in how much they emit, and especially emerging countries, and 177 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 6: that's supposed to be a sign to bring them on 178 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 6: board also to take ambitious actions. So it's an time 179 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 6: to try to add another layer of differentiation in the 180 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 6: unif people see. But knowing that it's still very contested 181 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 6: and still today being discussed a lot in the negotiations. 182 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you more about that as well, 183 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 2: because there was that change, and there were a few 184 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 2: other kind of key changes and the Pairents agreement that 185 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 2: shifted things a little bit. So I was hoping you 186 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 2: could talk about that. You mentioned like this difference around 187 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 2: developing countries, but I know there was also a hybrid 188 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 2: and multilateralism saying introduced and kind of bringing Nansen actors 189 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 2: in more So I wonder if you could talk a 190 00:13:53,320 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 2: bit about how Paris changed the negotiations and also the 191 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 2: pathways to obstruction. 192 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 4: Of the Paricis linion is a product of the failure 193 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 4: of the reform of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol 194 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 4: settled a kind of mandatory goals of reduction emission for 195 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 4: developer countis okay, So the Kyoto Protocol was basing the 196 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 4: idea of precision in relation to the obligations of developer counts, 197 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 4: but not in relation to developing county of course. So 198 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 4: what happened is that at the time of the reform 199 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 4: of the Kyoto Protocol, there was an idea that the 200 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 4: principle of mandatory, the principle of having mandatory goals should 201 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 4: be extended to all kinds of course, very different kind 202 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 4: of mandator according to their capita income and kappabis, let's say. 203 00:14:54,920 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 4: But this fail, okay for many reasons, and so the 204 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 4: party's agreement was the kind of second best in relation 205 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 4: to something a strong agreement. At the same time, it's 206 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 4: the principle that bought on up. Each country says what 207 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 4: I can't do, and I will implement, and there is 208 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 4: no idea of any punishment if you don't implement. 209 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,119 Speaker 5: Significant punishment. Okay. 210 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 4: That it wasn't the Guiodo Protocol, but was for didn't 211 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 4: have enough teath anyway. 212 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 5: So from this point of view, this is a major change. 213 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 4: It's universal that any country had obligations, but the obligations 214 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 4: are defined by each country according to whatever criteria, okay, 215 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 4: and these obligations are not mandatory. There we are attempts 216 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 4: of saying, okay, these are the goals, should be mandatory, 217 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 4: should be legal eviding, okay, But there was the strong 218 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 4: opposition of the United States and the India to this 219 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 4: kind of Well, India is more complex, okay, but the 220 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 4: United States not because of the not necessarily the Obama 221 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 4: administration was agaged, but the Obama administration was saying and 222 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 4: we all knew that to pass in the American Senate, 223 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 4: any treaty that had legally binding goals of reduction emissions 224 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 4: would not pass that the Americans read that is very 225 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 4: difficult to pass any international treaty in the American Senate historically. 226 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 6: And on your point on the role of non state actors, 227 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 6: I think that's also an important shift that we saw 228 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 6: with the signature of the Paris Agreement, where we knew 229 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 6: why negotiating the treaty that adding up the voluntary commitments 230 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 6: by countries wouldn't lead us to limit the global warming 231 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 6: to two degree or one point five. That's what is 232 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 6: being called the emission gap. And the idea was that 233 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 6: this emission gap could be reduced by giving non stead actors, 234 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 6: and especially if you see the private sector a bigger 235 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 6: role in the transition. That that's why with the Paris Agreement, 236 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 6: we have these whole discussions around hybrid multilateralism, about orchestration 237 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 6: of the action of non state actors to try to 238 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 6: reduce this emission gap in a context in which in 239 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 6: the past the private sector was kind of more like 240 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 6: either opposed or in favor of a treaty of the 241 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 6: pure protocol notably. But then we so really changes around 242 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 6: the Paris Agreement, with the private sectors and the industry 243 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 6: wanting to play also a bigger role and also not 244 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 6: only at the national level but also internationally to bring 245 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,360 Speaker 6: up and to have this kind of bigger dialogue and 246 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 6: initiatives being also discussed at the multilateral level. 247 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: So you mentioned in this chapter, and we talked a 248 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: little bit about it already, but the sort of operations 249 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: of the unf tripleC. 250 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 2: And the IPCC and how those enable or empower obstruction 251 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 2: and I was hoping you could talk about that a 252 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 2: little bit. Just what are some of the ways that 253 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 2: these organizations are set up to allow obstruction. 254 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 6: I can start and mentioned two and then Eduardo can 255 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 6: jump in any time. I think first, there is the 256 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 6: question of access and participation to both the IPCC and 257 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 6: UNF tripleC. In the sense that even so everyone like 258 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 6: every representative of a country is welcome to participate and 259 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 6: be part of those institutions, it does require quite a 260 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 6: lot of resources human resources but also financial resources. For 261 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 6: the IPCC, it also means quite a lot of epistemic 262 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 6: resources being able to understand the very technical discussions that 263 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 6: go on in the IPCC. And that does mean because 264 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 6: they are huge a symmetries and structural asim trees between countries, 265 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 6: that does mean that often those who have the most 266 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 6: capacities are also the most represented in those institutions because 267 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 6: they can send more delegates, they can also stay overnight, 268 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 6: they can stay longer if the negotiations do not finish 269 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 6: on time, and so abcy that makes them have bigger 270 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 6: influence on what's going on in those institutions. And the 271 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 6: second I think is and that's also similar, and it's 272 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 6: a practice and procedure in both institutions. The fact that 273 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 6: decisions are taken by consensus, which means that every country 274 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 6: has a say and a voice and can at any 275 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 6: time oppose a decision, pose an agreement, which means that 276 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 6: everything has to be made to try to find a 277 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 6: compromise to get them on board. And that gives some countries, 278 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 6: and especially those countries who wants to do obstruction also 279 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 6: a big leeway and a big way to kind of 280 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 6: really try to slow down the debate or have their 281 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 6: views reflected in some of those documents negotiated. 282 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is actually the idea of the consensus is 283 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 4: one of the major vulnerabilities of the convention and the 284 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 4: whole history of the trilogy. Okay, so that it is 285 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 4: just one country, and particular is it is a country 286 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 4: with some power, even doesn't mean to be strong. 287 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 5: This power you can diminish. What is the agreement. So 288 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 5: this is the idea that the consensus give the negotiation to. 289 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:19,879 Speaker 4: The final decision of minimal common common de nominate, meaning 290 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 4: the minimal ambition for fighting global war. 291 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 2: When I was reading this chapter, especially this part about 292 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: how access and resources really come to play in the IPCC, 293 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 2: and the unittriblecy. It also made me think about the 294 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 2: academic research and the funding of it, and how much 295 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 2: more industry funding there is for that research in some 296 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: countries than others, and I wonder how much that comes 297 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: into play as an obstruction tactic as well. 298 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a difficult question because the IPCC is not 299 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 6: being funded by the private sector, is being funded by 300 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 6: the governments on a voluntary basis. But it's true that 301 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 6: in the selection of the authors, it's possible because it's 302 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 6: being done based on the list provided by governments, it's 303 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:23,199 Speaker 6: possible to have authors who have been working for fossil 304 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 6: fuel companies. We know, for instance, of authors from Excellent 305 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 6: Mobile or Saudi Aramco. We been authors in some of 306 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 6: the IPCC assessments, and I wouldn't say it's necessarily because 307 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 6: of them that we have this kind of openness to 308 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 6: carbon capturing storage or carbon dioxide removal, which has been 309 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 6: documented in the last reports. I think in general, the 310 00:22:54,600 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 6: IPCC also wants to work very closely with the private 311 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 6: sector and also once and it's part of a bigger 312 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 6: narrative in which nonstate actors and the private sector does 313 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 6: play a big role in providing the solution. So it's 314 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 6: it's really part of a bigger change, and that's what 315 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 6: the I think the interesting point the IPCC was kind 316 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 6: of said, Okay, let's let's have closer links. And we 317 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 6: know from the previous president Hosson Lee for instance, was 318 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 6: really open to having greater dialogues and input from from 319 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 6: the big business industry, and so that might be one 320 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,840 Speaker 6: of the reasons, through the leadership of the IPCC, through 321 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 6: the authors who are being part of the report, that 322 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 6: we tend to give those technologies big roles in the transition. 323 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,360 Speaker 6: Even though it's been criticized a lot. IPCC is aware 324 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 6: of that. There have been discussions about how to also 325 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 6: show some of the negative impacts two technologies can have, 326 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 6: notably on biodiversity for instance, or water security. 327 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 4: Yeah. 328 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 2: Interesting, Okay, can we talk about which countries are the 329 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 2: biggest problem, which countries are the big instructors? We know 330 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,360 Speaker 2: the United States, so we can talk about the United 331 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: States more for sure, But what are the big instructors? 332 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 2: You mentioned them in this chapter, and I'd like to 333 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: have you kind of list them and then give some 334 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 2: examples of the kinds of things that they do to 335 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 2: obstruct at the international level. 336 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, So I guess the most obvious one, the most 337 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 6: that has been discussed a lot in the literature also 338 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 6: in media reporting is Saudi Arabia, because Soudia Arabia is 339 00:24:54,960 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 6: very open and in a way and very like not 340 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 6: deranged or not posing Saudi Arabia or problem of being 341 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 6: finger pointed as obstructing the negotiations and putting it it's veto. 342 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 6: I think it's even part of the DNA. It's part 343 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 6: of the identity of the SODI delegation to have this 344 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 6: very kind of aggressive, very forthcoming position and in the negotiations. 345 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 6: So that's the kind of obvious one, I would say, 346 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 6: but in a way extremely well done. I mean, it's 347 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 6: it's impressive to see the sod navigate the different rooms 348 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 6: and have their point of view being presented and listed 349 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 6: in the discussion. So it's it's very effective and it's 350 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 6: it's not something they are really thinking, I think, very 351 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 6: clearly about how to organize themselves and how to influence 352 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 6: the negotiations. The second one probably the biggest in a way, 353 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 6: but it's the United States United States. I think the 354 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 6: difference with the sodius that the United cares about it's 355 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 6: about the public opinion. It cares about what people are 356 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 6: going to say and see of the United States within 357 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 6: the negotiations but also outside as wanting to have this 358 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 6: kind of leadership role in the negotiation, even though in 359 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 6: practice we know the United States has left and withdrew 360 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 6: from the Kudo Protocol, from the Paris Agreement. Is a 361 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:37,959 Speaker 6: big opposer of historical responsibilities, which I think is obviously 362 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 6: a very big problem given that we need to have 363 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 6: ambitious but also just action. The United States also has 364 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 6: been really opposing a lot of loss and damage discussions 365 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 6: in the negotiations, really opposing any discussions in terms of 366 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 6: reparation and compensation, and that's why it took so many 367 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 6: decades to have the Lost Damage Fund established at COP 368 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 6: twenty seven. 369 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 4: There is a significantly difference between Republican and democratic administration, 370 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 4: so in general speaking is in a country that produced 371 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 4: a lot of obstruction even in democratic administration. But I 372 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 4: mean the particularly Di Biden administration was the first time 373 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 4: that the United State has really a climate police, because 374 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 4: Obama didn't have it. Was take some measures by executive order, 375 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 4: but didn't have a climate police. So we have a 376 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 4: climate police in United sedy for the first time that 377 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 4: is based in promoting renewable energy and energy, not in 378 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 4: reducing emission, because this wouldn't have support in Congress. But anyway, 379 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 4: the difference between the bide And administration and the second 380 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,120 Speaker 4: Tramp administration in terms of the impact in the global 381 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 4: climate police is giant, I mean the impact of And 382 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 4: this is one problem that is very important. We are 383 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 4: now living in a world that's extremely conflicting, extremely based 384 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 4: in the priority of art geopolitics considerations. Okay, in a 385 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 4: well in which the military spending is growing a lot 386 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 4: in most countries. 387 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,919 Speaker 5: And so the will in which we are now is somehow. 388 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 4: The opposite of the world of ninety two when the 389 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 4: Tridment regime was born, and even the world of twenty 390 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 4: to fifteen when the Party's agreement was signed. So negotiations 391 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 4: were always difficult for the reasons we have mentioned and 392 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 4: are in the chapter. And now the negotiations have much 393 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 4: more obstacles because of this new geopolitical and particularly now 394 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 4: with the Trump administration that is not being in the agree. 395 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 4: Women is impacting she's impact in a lot many countries. Okay, 396 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 4: so openly or not so this is a consideration by 397 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 4: the United States and I would say that another old 398 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 4: stackle that has been that this has been important is 399 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,719 Speaker 4: the position of China. 400 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 5: Until twenty fourteen, previous. 401 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 4: To Paris Agreement, China was has a non cooperative policy 402 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 4: at all Okay. In twenty fifth fourteen, after the negotiation 403 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 4: between governmansgi in Pin, there was moved from a non 404 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 4: comparative to partially compared positions in the negotiation. So this 405 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 4: was very important for sure, and Miski the Paris Agreement 406 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 4: would not happen without this change in the Chinese position. 407 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 4: But still until now China has be came right. He 408 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 4: continued building gold feed the term of our plants. But 409 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 4: at the same time it is a super power of renewals, okay, 410 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 4: and this is very important for China and for the web. 411 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 4: But still China continues consider itself as a developing gun 412 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 4: and this is a major problem for the advance of 413 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 4: the lagoship. 414 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 2: Can I have you, guys to find the difference between 415 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 2: procedural and substantive obstruction and then maybe give some examples 416 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 2: of those both in the UNF t PC and IPCC. 417 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, so I can give you broadly a kind of overview, 418 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,440 Speaker 6: and then we can discuss examples, So we wanted this 419 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 6: rupture to have an easy way to look at obstruction 420 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 6: in a way, and that's why we differentiated between procedural 421 00:30:54,360 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 6: obstruction and substantial obstruction, knowing that obviously there also clearly 422 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 6: related So looking at procedural obstruction is more when the 423 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 6: country tried to delay the deliberation when it puts its 424 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 6: veto on some decisions. As we mentioned that it's very 425 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 6: important for decisions to be taken by consensus, so some 426 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 6: countries do use a lot their veto to have the 427 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 6: views reflected in the documents and those can be unit 428 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 6: to posy decisions, but also IPCC summaries for policy makers. 429 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 6: It can be also about taking the floor a lot 430 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 6: to delay the deliberations that can then will be extended 431 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 6: over the days. Sometimes will be also extended overnight, which 432 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 6: makes it very difficult for small delegations to be part 433 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 6: of the negotiations. And substantial obstruction is done more about 434 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 6: being obstructive on how specific thematic area is going to 435 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 6: be addressed and obvious. This can be done by dealing 436 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 6: the discussions and this can be for instance when discussing 437 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 6: fossil fuel phase out in the negotiations and that took 438 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 6: so many years and decades even to finally have a 439 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 6: proper discussion about fossil fuel phase out. But there are 440 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 6: other examples in the chapter about loss and damage discussions 441 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 6: and how for a long time it has been kind 442 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 6: of framed around the question of adaptation, and that only 443 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 6: recently some negotiations have been allowed also to develop independently 444 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 6: on loss and damage. 445 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 2: The something I thought was really interesting in this chapter, 446 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 2: and maybe surprising for people who don't follow this so closely, 447 00:32:56,440 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 2: is that there's almost never is energy being discussed explicitly 448 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 2: in these negotiations. I wonder if you could talk about 449 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 2: that and sort of why it was a big deal that. 450 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 1: At the wrap up of I think it was COP 451 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 1: twenty eight that they actually mentioned fossil fuels in those negotiations. 452 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:23,120 Speaker 1: But yeah, why is energy not being talked about in 453 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: explicit terms in these negotiations? 454 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:31,200 Speaker 4: Well, I mean I would say that there was at 455 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 4: the moment of the real convention, there was. All these 456 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 4: things are related to the limitations and vulnerabilities of the 457 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 4: real convention. 458 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 5: So what happened at that time countries that we are 459 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 5: living like. 460 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 4: The European Union, they were expecting that the most important 461 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 4: was to reach a consensu to reach a treaty. Okay, 462 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 4: so the what example is the United States was against 463 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 4: introduc energy openly in the discussion. Also obviously all the 464 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 4: Oily support for example. 465 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 5: Okay, so it's amazing that energy is not discussive. 466 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,279 Speaker 4: It's amazing that just into any eight there was a 467 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 4: mention to going transition away from fossil fuels. 468 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 5: Really really is and this is kind of say, in 469 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:27,960 Speaker 5: my view. 470 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 4: The general limitations of the convention that anyway has produced 471 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 4: global public aware about the issue, because imagine without the convention, 472 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:45,880 Speaker 4: the well without the convention, without and the annual discussions 473 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 4: about this, so the public awareness in the world about 474 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 4: climate change would be dramatically low. 475 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,280 Speaker 5: Okay, So the convention has been very important. 476 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 4: The negotiations sometimes have been not useful, but generally there 477 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 4: is a trajectory of progress. But with all these limited 478 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 4: so I would say energy is very It's not discussed 479 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:16,400 Speaker 4: because all the companies that are carbon intensive in the 480 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 4: production of energy are against. 481 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:24,479 Speaker 6: And there is this famous statement by Saudi Arabia which 482 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 6: was that the Unity Policy is not an energy treaty, 483 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,360 Speaker 6: so we should discuss we can discuss emissions but we 484 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 6: shouldn't go too much into the details of how we 485 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:40,359 Speaker 6: can reduce those emissions and how we can also think 486 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 6: about fossil fuel phase out. But what is interesting is 487 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,799 Speaker 6: and that's part of the chapter as well, and that's 488 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 6: the work that has been done by a colleague of 489 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 6: hours Stephan I could, which is that in a way 490 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 6: fasil fuels have been discussed in the Unit to POCY meetings, 491 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:06,879 Speaker 6: but through the impact of climate policy on for sil 492 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 6: fuel economies, and that's what is being called response measures, 493 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,920 Speaker 6: and it's agenda items in the negotiation that has been 494 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 6: there for several decades, and that's where the consequences of 495 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 6: the response measures are being discussed and what can be 496 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 6: done to help countries that are heavily dependent on fossil 497 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 6: fuel for the economy, what can be done done to 498 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 6: support their transition. That's obviously an agenda item and thematic 499 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,320 Speaker 6: area where Saudi Arabia has been pushing a lot to 500 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:46,720 Speaker 6: consider those very important, obviously consequences, and today we discuss 501 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 6: that as well on the Just Transition agenda item. 502 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's super super interesting. Kind of related to this. 503 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,759 Speaker 2: I wanted to talk about this phrase unabated emissions. 504 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,240 Speaker 1: Why it's important for people to understand what that means 505 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 1: and how it gets used as a loop. 506 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 5: Call. 507 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 6: Well, it's a bit related to the previous question on 508 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 6: the role of some of the technologies like carbon dioxide 509 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:22,560 Speaker 6: removal and carbon capturing storage in INDIPCC. And it's true 510 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:29,200 Speaker 6: that this unabated emission statement became very important, very much 511 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:33,200 Speaker 6: discussed because it was mentioned in the Glasgow Pact at 512 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 6: COP twenty six and the idea was that they was 513 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:44,799 Speaker 6: supposed to have a phase down of unabated emissions from 514 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 6: call notably and yeah, it's part of those terms that 515 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 6: allow for consensus to be found and because an abated 516 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:02,280 Speaker 6: is supposed to prolong the life of the fossil fuel 517 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 6: industry and infrastructure, because there is this these expectations that 518 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:14,440 Speaker 6: by deploying at large scale carbon dioxide capture and storage, 519 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:20,400 Speaker 6: we can continue to extract fossil fuel from the ground, 520 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:26,520 Speaker 6: but then capture the emissions at the source and store 521 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 6: them underground. And this is a technology that has been 522 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:34,440 Speaker 6: discussed for several decades. There was actually a special report 523 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:39,239 Speaker 6: produced by DIPCC in two thousand and five, if I 524 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 6: remember correctly, which was expected to assess the role that 525 00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 6: ccs could play in the transition. It's still it hasn't 526 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,360 Speaker 6: scaled up as expected. There are still a lot of uncertainties, 527 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,320 Speaker 6: a lot of debate. But we can see that it 528 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:58,400 Speaker 6: came back in the discussions because some countries and economies 529 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:03,439 Speaker 6: really hope, varies strongly that those technologies can help them 530 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:08,759 Speaker 6: continue extract for seal fuel. And there is no very 531 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,480 Speaker 6: interesting discussion going on in the IPCC about how do 532 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:17,280 Speaker 6: we define an abated emissions? What is an abated infrastructure? 533 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 6: And it's been going on because the IPCC, obviously after 534 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 6: Coup twenty six, became involved in the discussions about these 535 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 6: the deposition, So there have been authors IPCC authors trying 536 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 6: to find some kind of definition to assess whether an 537 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 6: infrastructure is really producing an abated emissions or not. 538 00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:40,280 Speaker 2: Interesting. 539 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,560 Speaker 1: Okay, we've talked about non state actors a little bit 540 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 1: and how they've been increasingly welcomed and active in this process. 541 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:55,000 Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit about specifically what types 542 00:39:55,040 --> 00:40:00,239 Speaker 1: of non state actors are getting involved and where do 543 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 1: they play a role in obstruction. 544 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,680 Speaker 4: There had a lot of non state but we can't 545 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:13,480 Speaker 4: classify them in saying in geos and business players, and 546 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,520 Speaker 4: also there is more recently in another non state actor, 547 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,000 Speaker 4: that is non national state tactor, but in some countries 548 00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 4: are important, particularly in democratic federative countries. 549 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,640 Speaker 5: That is the sub national goal. 550 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,560 Speaker 4: But the most importance are the business and in geos 551 00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 4: at the beginning of the coups the idea not of 552 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:40,640 Speaker 4: non state actors. We are much more in geos because 553 00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 4: the business community was reluctant to the whole idea of 554 00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:45,280 Speaker 4: the convention. 555 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,040 Speaker 5: Okay, when there were. 556 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:55,400 Speaker 4: Some changes, some perception in the business community, particularly promoted 557 00:40:55,480 --> 00:41:00,319 Speaker 4: by the World Economic Forum since twenty fourteen fifteen one, 558 00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:05,360 Speaker 4: so the business participation became very very strong and particularly 559 00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:12,160 Speaker 4: increased dramatically then the participation of business that are related 560 00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:18,240 Speaker 4: to fossil fuels corporations. So we have today these worlds 561 00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:23,040 Speaker 4: of the business community and the NGOs community. 562 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,560 Speaker 5: And there are some ENGOs that are. 563 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 4: Not independent ENGOs representing civil society, the more public goods 564 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:38,640 Speaker 4: like in the past, but represent business centers and sometimes 565 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:43,000 Speaker 4: carbon intensive business interests. And you can say that there 566 00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:48,560 Speaker 4: are some business non state actors that are more progressive 567 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,960 Speaker 4: and recognized the need of the carganization. And there are 568 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:57,960 Speaker 4: other businesses non state titles that are clearly conservative with 569 00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:02,800 Speaker 4: the in favorable start to go with different discourses that 570 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 4: are not open. 571 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:08,520 Speaker 5: Saying that, and we have also the NGO community. 572 00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,520 Speaker 4: Most of the NGO community is much more representative of 573 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:18,160 Speaker 4: civil society, national civil societies and global civil society. But 574 00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 4: there are also significant part of the growing of NGOs 575 00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:31,240 Speaker 4: that are much more dependent on related to the business 576 00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:36,240 Speaker 4: community and both sides. But particularly what is the major 577 00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 4: product with NGOs that are related to fossil fuels non state. 578 00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:48,600 Speaker 6: Yeah, maybe beild on that. What we see is because 579 00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:52,759 Speaker 6: of this whole Paris agreement which is expected to orchestrate 580 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 6: action by non seed actors, we see a great interest 581 00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:00,680 Speaker 6: from non set actors and especially the private section during cups. 582 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,600 Speaker 6: They go to cubs because they can showcas they ate 583 00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:08,520 Speaker 6: latest technologies and solutions. They can be part of different 584 00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:13,400 Speaker 6: side events where they show how they are becoming leaders 585 00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:20,640 Speaker 6: in the transition. They are also there to lobby government 586 00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:27,400 Speaker 6: representatives and they have been studies and buy by different organizations, 587 00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:31,799 Speaker 6: really showing how they are More and more lobbists from 588 00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:36,640 Speaker 6: the fossil fuel industry being part not only of government 589 00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 6: delegations but also going to cups to be part of 590 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:47,040 Speaker 6: side events to do also deals with different countries and actors. 591 00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,960 Speaker 6: I think there is still in general, some more knowledge 592 00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,600 Speaker 6: and research that would be needed to really understand what 593 00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:58,359 Speaker 6: those actors are actually doing at cop and what's their 594 00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:04,480 Speaker 6: potential of influencing the negotiations. Knowing that still today and 595 00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,680 Speaker 6: it has always been the case for non state actors 596 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,600 Speaker 6: to have an impact and an influence on decision making processes, 597 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:16,560 Speaker 6: being at angios or the private sectors, it's more effective 598 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:17,920 Speaker 6: to do it nationally. 599 00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:22,239 Speaker 2: But have you talk a little bit about the efforts 600 00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:28,200 Speaker 2: that are working to reveal the substruction or oppose it, 601 00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:33,880 Speaker 2: including your own work, this book, you know, academic research, activism, journalism. 602 00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,640 Speaker 2: What are the things that are pushing back against this 603 00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,680 Speaker 2: and do you see any that are particularly effective. 604 00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,920 Speaker 6: Yes, So, Sadia has been quite a lot going on 605 00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:51,120 Speaker 6: in the negotiations and also in the side events to 606 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:56,280 Speaker 6: try to name and shame in a way those actors 607 00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:02,719 Speaker 6: who are obstructing negotiations, but also policy making nationally. And 608 00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:06,400 Speaker 6: we can mention the notorious Fossil of the day that 609 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:10,640 Speaker 6: is being awarded by NGOs to some of the countries 610 00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:16,439 Speaker 6: who have been obstructing the discussions. So that's yeah, those 611 00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,160 Speaker 6: kind of name and shaming. Naming and shaming practices and 612 00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:25,120 Speaker 6: strategies are being used a lot by civil society, and 613 00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:30,560 Speaker 6: obviously they provide this kind of really important moral dimension 614 00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:34,279 Speaker 6: and moral argument in the negotiations. Is the fact that 615 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:39,440 Speaker 6: we also have a very active and influential coalition of 616 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,520 Speaker 6: countries who are the most vulnerables to climation. And here 617 00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,720 Speaker 6: I'm thinking about the AOSIS, the Alliance of Small Island 618 00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:52,120 Speaker 6: Developing States, which has been very active as well to 619 00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:56,880 Speaker 6: kind of push for more ambitious action. That has been 620 00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,880 Speaker 6: also active in trying to bridge between the different countries 621 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,960 Speaker 6: and developed and developing countries. And that that's something that 622 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,400 Speaker 6: I find very interesting, which because it's an initiative that 623 00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:12,080 Speaker 6: brings together not only these countries is being pushed by them, 624 00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:17,560 Speaker 6: but it also initiated also from discussions academic discussions. Is 625 00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:22,439 Speaker 6: this non proliferation agreement on fossil fuel, and that's being 626 00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:27,920 Speaker 6: discussed and increasingly also supported in the negotiations, which I 627 00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:33,280 Speaker 6: find an an interesting example of how to build collaborations 628 00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 6: and support from different actors, being civil society, government representatives 629 00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:39,920 Speaker 6: as well as researchers. 630 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,040 Speaker 1: We're coming up to the Cup in Brazil and I 631 00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,560 Speaker 1: know Brazil came up in this chapter a couple of 632 00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:49,640 Speaker 1: times too, So I'm curious to hear what you think 633 00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,640 Speaker 1: we can expect to see at this cup what people 634 00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:54,239 Speaker 1: should be looking for. 635 00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:59,120 Speaker 4: International situation in which this scope is going to happen 636 00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:03,640 Speaker 4: isly difficult because of the new American administration. 637 00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:05,480 Speaker 5: This is a major measure problem. 638 00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:10,279 Speaker 4: But also is what I said before about the priority 639 00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:18,600 Speaker 4: of national security today, how this affects all countries that 640 00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:24,280 Speaker 4: has diminished the attention significantly to climate chain mitigation. Okay, 641 00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:30,040 Speaker 4: so this is a major obstacle for the convention for 642 00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:36,399 Speaker 4: three and I would say so, for example, the one 643 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:41,560 Speaker 4: issue that is key in obstacles of the negotiation is 644 00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:46,480 Speaker 4: the major difference of position between developing countries and developing 645 00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:47,800 Speaker 4: countries generally speaking. 646 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,520 Speaker 5: Okay, so this is a major obstacle okay, And that is. 647 00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:57,120 Speaker 4: From one side there is less and less availability for 648 00:47:57,360 --> 00:48:01,759 Speaker 4: financing from developing countries, and from the other side, there 649 00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:07,239 Speaker 4: is growing resentment in developing countries. I would say, particularly 650 00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,560 Speaker 4: in low income and low middle lincoln countries in relation 651 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,959 Speaker 4: to develop the countries. 652 00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,960 Speaker 5: And to the credibility of the negotiation. 653 00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:20,920 Speaker 4: This is something that accumulating a lot okay, and it's 654 00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:22,120 Speaker 4: going to be more difficult. 655 00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:26,800 Speaker 5: In my view, there are two things that are favorable 656 00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:28,000 Speaker 5: in this coupe. 657 00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,080 Speaker 4: One is that the first one in a democratic country 658 00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,960 Speaker 4: after three cops out. So in the environment of the cops, 659 00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:40,000 Speaker 4: there is a diffuse influence of when you have a 660 00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:44,600 Speaker 4: lot of an atmosphere of civil society mobilization that could 661 00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:49,640 Speaker 4: be extremely intense in this case, because Brazil is promoting 662 00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:54,200 Speaker 4: the participation of civil society, national and international, even with 663 00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,880 Speaker 4: all the vulnerability of Brazil because has a good policy 664 00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:02,520 Speaker 4: for controlling deforestation right now, but the land you've changed, 665 00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,840 Speaker 4: but not about oil exploration. That is, Brazil is becoming 666 00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:10,920 Speaker 4: more and more one of the most important oil supported 667 00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:11,959 Speaker 4: in the world. 668 00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:12,320 Speaker 5: Okay. 669 00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:17,080 Speaker 4: So this is the ambivalence or of the schizophrenia of 670 00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:21,480 Speaker 4: the Lula administration. But anyway, it's from the Brazilian government 671 00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:26,040 Speaker 4: is promote And there is another thing that I think 672 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:30,200 Speaker 4: is relevant, and this is an uncerted in my view. 673 00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:34,760 Speaker 4: The uncertainty is what would be the role of China 674 00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:42,400 Speaker 4: in this convection. Okay, would China take advantage of the 675 00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:48,359 Speaker 4: of the vacuum because there is no more European Union 676 00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:53,320 Speaker 4: leadership Okay, and United States is in the opposite side 677 00:49:53,400 --> 00:50:01,040 Speaker 4: of the convention, so all China take advantage and change 678 00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:06,279 Speaker 4: positions saying, Okay, we recognize we are a global superpower, 679 00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:13,720 Speaker 4: global economy superpower and in all dimensions, and we cannot 680 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,520 Speaker 4: be considered anymore developing Gun to have many of the 681 00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,040 Speaker 4: dimensions of developed Gun even if the per capita income 682 00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,040 Speaker 4: is still in the high media Lincoln is not high 683 00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:28,920 Speaker 4: in I think theoretically this could happen. 684 00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,239 Speaker 5: There is a high probability of this to happen. No, 685 00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,680 Speaker 5: it's a low probability. 686 00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,320 Speaker 4: But this if there is a movement of China in 687 00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:42,960 Speaker 4: that direction, but maybe the specificities of this movement, this 688 00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,560 Speaker 4: will create a new kind of environment in this scope 689 00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:51,920 Speaker 4: that could diminish the negative situation of today of the 690 00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,319 Speaker 4: world and global climate policy, and even could be very 691 00:50:55,480 --> 00:51:01,759 Speaker 4: favorable for China. But because could reduce the opposition to 692 00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:07,360 Speaker 4: China in democratic countries, because China is an autocracy. Okay, 693 00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:11,160 Speaker 4: so there is because theoretically, because I don't have any 694 00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:16,239 Speaker 4: inside information about China, Okay, this, I think this could happen. 695 00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,200 Speaker 4: The other thing that I think is important is would 696 00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:22,160 Speaker 4: will be the role of the Brazilian president not the 697 00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:27,120 Speaker 4: Brazilian government behavior in the negotiation that would be like 698 00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:31,640 Speaker 4: any other country. By the Brazilian president. The most important 699 00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:37,680 Speaker 4: goal of the Brazilian president is securing the continuity of 700 00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:43,080 Speaker 4: the negotiation. It's a low ambition goal, okay. So their 701 00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:47,719 Speaker 4: danget is the implosion of the of COP. So this 702 00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:52,640 Speaker 4: is our goal to keep the COP going on. So 703 00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:56,320 Speaker 4: for that we need to have a very low ambition 704 00:51:56,600 --> 00:52:01,680 Speaker 4: position in terms of hard market Let's say, okay, but 705 00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:08,959 Speaker 4: we can create an atmosphere of discussion that is more 706 00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:14,120 Speaker 4: forward thinking without entering in very tought. 707 00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:18,440 Speaker 5: Issues in relation to emission for example. 708 00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:25,080 Speaker 4: But yes, for example, trying to circumvent, try to avoid 709 00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:30,120 Speaker 4: the deepening of the let's say, of the risks of 710 00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:37,600 Speaker 4: the resentment and credibility by developing countries in relation to 711 00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:41,840 Speaker 4: the COP mechans something like this. So it's uncertain, the 712 00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:42,960 Speaker 4: COP is uncertain. 713 00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, I would really agree with the Douardo on the 714 00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,160 Speaker 6: question of trust and the resentment, the lack of trust 715 00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,920 Speaker 6: that we have seen in the last years. I was 716 00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:56,080 Speaker 6: in in Baku at COP twenty nine. I was also 717 00:52:56,200 --> 00:53:00,840 Speaker 6: this tune and burn and the negotiation or stuck on 718 00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:06,880 Speaker 6: several issues because of the disappointment of the new collective 719 00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:14,160 Speaker 6: quantified goal on finance, which is seen as completely way 720 00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,919 Speaker 6: too weak by developing countries. And I think that's being 721 00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:21,919 Speaker 6: a really big challenge for the Brazilian presidency to try 722 00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:27,000 Speaker 6: to bring trust between the countries but also to try 723 00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:31,840 Speaker 6: to restore trust in the process, taking into account also 724 00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,440 Speaker 6: that the United States pulled out that the EU is 725 00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:40,560 Speaker 6: increasingly sometimes having very like having to take the same 726 00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:45,719 Speaker 6: statements and kind of create like obstructive a bit kind 727 00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:49,440 Speaker 6: of positions that the US used to take, for instance 728 00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:53,799 Speaker 6: on finance and loss and damage. So I think it's 729 00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:58,359 Speaker 6: going to be an important cup to try to talk 730 00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,960 Speaker 6: about this question of trusts and resentment and how to 731 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:07,680 Speaker 6: move forward in this new, very complicated, terrifying world. 732 00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:13,520 Speaker 2: That's it for this time. 733 00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,680 Speaker 1: Make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss an episode. 734 00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,719 Speaker 1: You can find more on this season, including transcripts and 735 00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:25,000 Speaker 1: lots of related articles and background information, on our website 736 00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,400 Speaker 1: at drilled dot Media. You can also sign up for 737 00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:33,080 Speaker 1: our newsletter there. Our producers for this season are Martin Saltz, 738 00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:37,040 Speaker 1: Oustwick and Peter duff. Our theme song is Bird in 739 00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:40,920 Speaker 1: the Hand by Fornown. Our cover art is by Matthew Fleming. 740 00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,359 Speaker 1: Our First Amendment Attorney is James Wheaton with the First 741 00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:45,360 Speaker 1: Amendment Project. 742 00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:47,040 Speaker 5: The show was. 743 00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:51,400 Speaker 1: Created, written, and reported by me Amy Westervelt. Thanks for 744 00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:52,920 Speaker 1: listening and see you next time.