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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?
Speaker 1: Instant reaction on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five
Speaker 1: to thirty four, another great Thursday night football game, one
Speaker 1: of the best games of the year. This is I
Speaker 1: had the Bengals plus sixth tonight for this very reason.
Speaker 1: These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses,
Speaker 1: you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored
Speaker 1: to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work.
Speaker 1: In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would
Speaker 1: have gone for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses,
Speaker 1: you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense
Speaker 1: first half a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great,
Speaker 1: they've got momentum. But eventually a bad defense gets more tired,
Speaker 1: it gets more beat up. You lose a couple of
Speaker 1: players who get banged up, and by the end of
Speaker 1: the game, you know, Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they
Speaker 1: get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good
Speaker 1: first quarter. A lot of defenses you know when they've
Speaker 1: got great energy. They're aggressive offenses, and big games can
Speaker 1: be a little tight, restrictive, conservative. But over the course
Speaker 1: of a game, these are not great defenses, and both
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up.
Speaker 1: I would have gone for it. First of all, I
Speaker 1: think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it. Teams
Speaker 1: that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the
Speaker 1: next week. The extra fifteen snaps or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But
Speaker 1: you know, I want to talk about something. Is one
Speaker 1: of the things the media does that really frustrates me
Speaker 1: that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things.
Speaker 1: I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to
Speaker 1: a podcast recently and the guy was talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: one hundred years ago or more, you know, people thought
Speaker 1: we were going to run out of food, but you know,
Speaker 1: things happen, fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more
Speaker 1: people die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I
Speaker 1: remember when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
Speaker 1: eighty seven, eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
Speaker 1: from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
Speaker 1: now it's it can be faster than that. But there
Speaker 1: was this, you know sense from the media it was
Speaker 1: car desks, we're going to explode, and they did increase
Speaker 1: initially on rural roads. But over the course of time,
Speaker 1: there's technology advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars,
Speaker 1: and society adapts and the media has to do a
Speaker 1: better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll
Speaker 1: give you another example. During COVID college football, media is
Speaker 1: like myocarditis. You can get an infection through a virus.
Speaker 1: It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all,
Speaker 1: on average, it's treatable, and on average, the person that
Speaker 1: gets myocarditis is in their mid forty not nineteen to
Speaker 1: twenty years old in elite shape. So again, it's the
Speaker 1: overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in
Speaker 1: the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies
Speaker 1: it out of just apathy or laziness, or they don't
Speaker 1: do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering.
Speaker 1: There's just a lot of smart people out there, whether
Speaker 1: it's on the processing of food, the creation of food,
Speaker 1: whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines.
Speaker 1: During COVID, people figure stuff out. And the reason I
Speaker 1: bring this up we had another great Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one
Speaker 1: of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the
Speaker 1: Rams was a good Thursday night game San Francisco in Seattle,
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good
Speaker 1: as an NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins showing off is that I remember about four
Speaker 1: years ago and the media was going through a weird
Speaker 1: time time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the
Speaker 1: word woke started being used a lot, and you know
Speaker 1: it can be overused and was overused, but it does exist.
Speaker 1: And the media was just on this thing that Thursday
Speaker 1: Night football. It was unfair to players, and it was
Speaker 1: like I talked to NFL players and they liked Thursday
Speaker 1: Night Football. You didn't hit that week. It was a
Speaker 1: real light week of practice and then you know you're
Speaker 1: off after the game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday.
Speaker 1: So a lot of guys it's like a second by
Speaker 1: a lot of guys on the West Coast would go
Speaker 1: to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the
Speaker 1: East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it
Speaker 1: as a second bye week. And so this idea that
Speaker 1: it was too much for NFL players. These are twenty
Speaker 1: five year old world class athletes that spend six and
Speaker 1: seven figures on their bodies. They've got great training staffs
Speaker 1: around them. They're going to be okay. And I think
Speaker 1: again today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do
Speaker 1: they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game?
Speaker 1: Of course not. And again it's just and I'm part
Speaker 1: of the media and I've overreacted before, but I thought
Speaker 1: what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they
Speaker 1: like to get these divisional rival games that are close.
Speaker 1: They don't want to have to travel too far on
Speaker 1: a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional,
Speaker 1: and these this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great
Speaker 1: quarterback play, two teams that know each other, uh to
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I think Zach Taytor is a smart,
Speaker 1: clever offensive coach, and I think John Harbaugh's great and
Speaker 1: the teams. You know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early,
Speaker 1: but you know, they adapt their pro athletes. I thought
Speaker 1: it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I
Speaker 1: mean Baltimore's isn't great either, but through the years it
Speaker 1: has been pretty consistently solid. Now, the Ravens have really
Speaker 1: poured more money into their off offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley.
Speaker 1: They just and got Deontay Johnson, so they're pouring more
Speaker 1: of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams
Speaker 1: should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore
Speaker 1: being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or there,
Speaker 1: or Cincinnati. That's the Brown family's history. So I just
Speaker 1: feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA.
Speaker 1: He's not going to demand a trade, but I do
Speaker 1: think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting
Speaker 1: up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they
Speaker 1: did everything they could possibly do. Thought I thought that
Speaker 1: it was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion
Speaker 1: that was un called, not called, which is unfortunate, and
Speaker 1: I you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen,
Speaker 1: when you give up the points in the yards that
Speaker 1: Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
Speaker 1: and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
Speaker 1: in the games officials are best served swallowing the whistle.
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure you've noticed this is over the course
Speaker 1: of the last eight to ten to twelve years, the
Speaker 1: amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane.
Speaker 1: You could call pass interference on every play. And I
Speaker 1: think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence on the sport, where
Speaker 1: you know, the Patriots just they were physical, they grabbed,
Speaker 1: they touched, they'd wear the same colored gloves as the
Speaker 1: team they were playing's uniform, and they were just it
Speaker 1: was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call
Speaker 1: pass interference on every play, and so the reality over
Speaker 1: time it's been normalized on the edges that you just
Speaker 1: you got to grab. Now you can't put your arm
Speaker 1: around a guy, but you can call pass interference constantly
Speaker 1: in this league. And they and Baltimore was flagged for
Speaker 1: it tonight several times. Personal fouls and pass interference on
Speaker 1: a play like that. Good luck on the road getting
Speaker 1: that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football.
Speaker 1: Their defense was a mess. They're tackling was bad. I
Speaker 1: do love this about Lamar Jackson, and I've said this
Speaker 1: before and I'll say it again. The guy was two
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety yards, four touchdowns, trailed by fourteen and
Speaker 1: the third. One of the things I love about Lamar,
Speaker 1: and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen
Speaker 1: and to Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're
Speaker 1: trailing if you watch them play. They don't play any
Speaker 1: different when they're trailing them when they're leading. And I've
Speaker 1: always thought the line in this league, the difference between
Speaker 1: the haves and the have nuts in quarterback play is
Speaker 1: the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind,
Speaker 1: when you know they have to throw. A Geno Smith
Speaker 1: a good player, but they don't feel the same. You're
Speaker 1: watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and a half in
Speaker 1: the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't
Speaker 1: tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change his body language,
Speaker 1: his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special all
Speaker 1: time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback,
Speaker 1: which thankfully that's people have moved away from that. He's exceptional.
Speaker 1: He does a really good job too. He's got a
Speaker 1: little bit of a different throwing style, so did Philip Rivers.
Speaker 1: You know, some guys just have a little bit of
Speaker 1: a different you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could
Speaker 1: be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance, you
Speaker 1: know how like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the
Speaker 1: late Jerry West. Justin Herbert. If the NFL ever did
Speaker 1: a player logo, it would be a quarterback and Justin
Speaker 1: Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect
Speaker 1: long stride. But a lot of these guys have kind
Speaker 1: of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes throws off his he's
Speaker 1: not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little
Speaker 1: bit of a different style. It's a little bit more
Speaker 1: of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of
Speaker 1: the prettiest throws throwing motions in the league. But it
Speaker 1: just works, and he has an ability. Lamar has an
Speaker 1: ability to I think it's body confidence that he can
Speaker 1: stare all over the field and then just in a
Speaker 1: quarter second suddenly look over to the sideline where they
Speaker 1: camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight
Speaker 1: to twelve yards. He's just he's really got a sense
Speaker 1: of composure and self aware and accuracy, and you know,
Speaker 1: he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow put aduct click tonight.
Speaker 1: It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again,
Speaker 1: these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the
Speaker 1: only thing I don't like about Thursday night football two
Speaker 1: of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday.
Speaker 1: And that's the downside to you know, if you do
Speaker 1: Thursday night football and you do Monday night football. So
Speaker 1: you know, Monday night Tua and Matt Stafford are playing
Speaker 1: and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. So
Speaker 1: four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks in the league
Speaker 1: are not playing Sunday. You know. So you know, I
Speaker 1: can only take so much. Will Levis Sorry, it's that's
Speaker 1: the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games.
Speaker 1: Seven years ago, these games six years ago, the games
Speaker 1: were awful. I mean it was like you felt like
Speaker 1: you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing bumblebee uniforms.
Speaker 1: Now they you know, they're putting up an almost every
Speaker 1: Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the
Speaker 1: best Thursday Night schedule. You've got a star quarterback tonight
Speaker 1: you had two. And if you didn't enjoy that, I
Speaker 1: don't you know. I like defense occasionally, but if you
Speaker 1: didn't enjoy that, like it's you, it's not your sport.
Speaker 1: That was just great. Great. Also had Cincinnati plus six.
Speaker 1: Didn't know if I was going to win that at
Speaker 1: one point, But I don't think less of Baltimore because
Speaker 1: it's close. These division rival games. You get four, five
Speaker 1: six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a
Speaker 1: division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one
Speaker 1: of the I think he's five and zero this year
Speaker 1: as a as an underdog against the spread on the
Speaker 1: road this year, Joe Burrow, he's a great He's now
Speaker 1: seventeen and three. Is Joe Burrow as a three point
Speaker 1: or more underdog as an NFL quarterback? Seventeen and three now,
Speaker 1: So congratulations to those who followed me on DraftKings. Now
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Speaker 1: All right, I am feeling good about my picks this week.
Speaker 1: I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
Speaker 1: three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
Speaker 1: By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
Speaker 1: co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
Speaker 1: like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay short week,
Speaker 1: all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye,
Speaker 1: in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
Speaker 1: all the things you'd want short week over time other
Speaker 1: team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
Speaker 1: you DraftKings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet
Speaker 1: skis tonight, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: Totally sharp. The wise guys have loved this one. It
Speaker 3: was at five and a half, got up to six,
Speaker 3: got up to six and a half. Now it's settled
Speaker 3: in around six. I will not be surprised if this
Speaker 3: gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about
Speaker 3: this game is, you know we talk all the time
Speaker 3: about the pro joe split, right the professionals on one side,
Speaker 3: the amateurs on another. Normally, what you get is the joe's.
Speaker 3: The amateurs like the big, fancy favorite. In this case,
Speaker 3: the joe's have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have
Speaker 3: actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season,
Speaker 3: And because they look so good in overtime against the
Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the joe's have been
Speaker 3: coming in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For
Speaker 3: your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like
Speaker 3: the Niners coming off a bye. They like having to
Speaker 3: fade the Bucks traveling back home in a short week
Speaker 3: overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
Speaker 3: And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking at,
Speaker 3: and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Speaker 3: Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
Speaker 3: of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
Speaker 3: five and a half or more off a by on
Speaker 3: the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
Speaker 3: you is that when a team is good and they're
Speaker 3: off the by and they go on the road in
Speaker 3: their favorites, they tend to overperform, and then you got
Speaker 3: the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
Speaker 3: terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
Speaker 3: against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
Speaker 3: are with you, Simon Simon? Whyse guys are with you, Colin.
Speaker 3: I was thinking about my bff, Simon one hundred percent
Speaker 3: on the Niners.
Speaker 1: Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals plus one. Now.
Speaker 1: Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
Speaker 1: put me in a good mood. But I think extra
Speaker 1: time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
Speaker 1: in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
Speaker 1: they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
Speaker 1: that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
Speaker 1: at home now getting a point. I think people, I
Speaker 1: know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
Speaker 1: on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
Speaker 1: They got really good offensive players and this is getting
Speaker 1: to the point in the year when defensive players, I
Speaker 1: mean the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not
Speaker 1: that good. I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square,
Speaker 1: all right, Well it's square.
Speaker 3: And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer
Speaker 3: of what this team is, right, because the Niners in
Speaker 3: that game, they didn't have a kicker. They literally would
Speaker 3: not kick a field goal when they were in the
Speaker 3: red zone. They had to keep running it. And one
Speaker 3: of those times, even though they were ahead, their running
Speaker 3: back fumbled the ball and it sent them the Cardinals
Speaker 3: towards a win in which they had about a five
Speaker 3: percent chance of winning the game. In that exact moment.
Speaker 3: The Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in
Speaker 3: first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams,
Speaker 3: ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of the Niners. There is
Speaker 3: a lot of glow on this team right now, and
Speaker 3: it is a team. To its credit, it has come
Speaker 3: back from double digit downs in a couple of games,
Speaker 3: and then it destroyed a Bear's team, which you and
Speaker 3: I both know like they were primed to be destroyed.
Speaker 3: I know I listened to your show. I know how
Speaker 3: you feel about Ibra Flus. I know the stat you've
Speaker 3: been drumming about him on the road. I agree with
Speaker 3: you as a Bears fan. Terrible coach. That was the
Speaker 3: exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: The Jets with an anybuy getting healthier. No pressure on
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean the Cardinals
Speaker 3: cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league.
Speaker 3: That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers to bring this
Speaker 3: team back down to earth. The wise guys like the Jets.
Speaker 3: The line has moved. The Jets were underdogs. The Jets
Speaker 3: are now favorites.
Speaker 1: Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
Speaker 1: like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
Speaker 1: a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
Speaker 1: over time, Kansas City is not a team that blows
Speaker 1: people out Denver. Meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
Speaker 1: realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
Speaker 1: play an angry Ravens team they hammered last year, The Niners,
Speaker 1: the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Speaker 1: Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
Speaker 1: just like not any other place in the league. Nobody,
Speaker 1: no team humiliates more teams than Baltimore in a bad
Speaker 1: mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
Speaker 1: McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
Speaker 1: coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
Speaker 1: I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
Speaker 1: they didn't get crushed, okay, So don't just wipe that away.
Speaker 1: Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Speaker 1: Division rivals. One team's humiliated one team on a short
Speaker 1: weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
Speaker 1: I still like Denverse seven and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 3: It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
Speaker 3: at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
Speaker 3: a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
Speaker 3: you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
Speaker 3: not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
Speaker 3: are going to be on a huge and in this case,
Speaker 3: seven is huge Division road underdog. Those ten to two
Speaker 3: favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
Speaker 3: he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
Speaker 3: the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
Speaker 3: this as well. They are not a blow them out
Speaker 3: team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more unto the flow
Speaker 3: and then understanding who they are offensively now, but they
Speaker 3: are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
Speaker 3: they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
Speaker 3: right so they are not the kind of team, and
Speaker 3: especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
Speaker 3: get leads in the first half, and then they slow
Speaker 3: it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
Speaker 3: great defense, and you can say everything you just said
Speaker 3: about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
Speaker 3: They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
Speaker 3: play of the game, bo Nicks throws an interception off
Speaker 3: of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
Speaker 3: for them the rest of the day. But this is
Speaker 3: a team that continues to grind and play to the
Speaker 3: whistle and play to the end of the game. I
Speaker 3: know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
Speaker 3: because bo Nicks is being treated as if he's a
Speaker 3: third or fourth year quarterback. Not a first year quarterback.
Speaker 3: So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in
Speaker 3: this game and keep the back door open, and the
Speaker 3: Chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
Speaker 3: one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
Speaker 3: are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
Speaker 3: Broncos are fifty percent against spread So.
Speaker 1: There are times when I just don't think teams are
Speaker 1: going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Speaker 1: Texans at home against the Lions and Detroit has This
Speaker 1: is not a game that you have circled as a
Speaker 1: Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
Speaker 1: in division teams. This is kind of one of those
Speaker 1: weird Hey we got to go on the road and
Speaker 1: play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
Speaker 1: and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
Speaker 1: is we got to get right three and a half.
Speaker 1: I think you come out of a divisional game with
Speaker 1: Green Bay you really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
Speaker 1: but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
Speaker 1: the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
Speaker 1: to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
Speaker 1: and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
Speaker 3: three and a half, and I think that the wise
Speaker 3: guys are with you here, but three will be the
Speaker 3: tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
Speaker 3: will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
Speaker 3: The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
Speaker 3: in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
Speaker 3: physical travels in football, right, running backs can have a
Speaker 3: bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
Speaker 3: outdoors than indoors. Offensive lines all you're doing is lining
Speaker 3: up across the guy in front of you and beating
Speaker 3: him up, and the Lions do that better than any
Speaker 3: offensive line in the league. I think that is why
Speaker 3: I you know, last week, all the professional betters were
Speaker 3: all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the
Speaker 3: Lions are going to be outside. Jared Goff has a
Speaker 3: bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to
Speaker 3: fade a team that everybody had been making money on,
Speaker 3: even as big favorites, because they thought we thought we'd
Speaker 3: see the letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't
Speaker 3: happen like the physical travel So I do worry about
Speaker 3: the Texans being able to out physical the Lions especially.
Speaker 3: We don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in
Speaker 3: that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out,
Speaker 3: the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the
Speaker 3: Jets took that game over. So it is, it's the
Speaker 3: right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not
Speaker 3: my favorite.
Speaker 1: Though, here's a game where I understand the hook and
Speaker 1: so people won't bet this side. But there are teams
Speaker 1: that I think get healthy or get right, and the
Speaker 1: market's not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going
Speaker 1: to be a problem this point forward. When you look
Speaker 1: at that receiving cor last week and all of a
Speaker 1: sudden you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now,
Speaker 1: it's actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
Speaker 1: you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
Speaker 1: punishing dominant wins. Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
Speaker 1: even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued.
Speaker 1: I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
Speaker 1: take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans. For the record,
Speaker 1: when we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
Speaker 1: gold like they can hang with bad teams. I've seen
Speaker 1: overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square Chargers
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 3: What say you, Yeah, it's totally square. The only side
Speaker 3: to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it
Speaker 3: or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game. I'm
Speaker 3: a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the
Speaker 3: Browns are cresting. You gotta get the Browns right now.
Speaker 3: Jamis is back and I looked at that game and
Speaker 3: we talked about this on the favorites several times because
Speaker 3: it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two
Speaker 3: point favorites on the road, and if you break down
Speaker 3: that handicap, Chargers should have been two point favorites on
Speaker 3: the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn
Speaker 3: the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line.
Speaker 3: We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers
Speaker 3: built in the same mold as the Lions. As we
Speaker 3: build the next twelve twenty four to thirty six months
Speaker 3: with what Harribaugh was trying to do there. I love
Speaker 3: this Chargers team. I think seven and a half points
Speaker 3: is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come
Speaker 3: into play in these games when the number is that
Speaker 3: high and there's.
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Speaker 1: a paid advertisement. Okay, here's a game, and I hate
Speaker 1: to do this because I really really like the Rams
Speaker 1: and their young defense a lot. It was plus two
Speaker 1: and a half and I really like Miami at two
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's down to one, so I
Speaker 1: think it won. I would take the Rams, but there's
Speaker 1: a game every week where I'm like, tell me what
Speaker 1: to bet. I really I think the Rams are so
Speaker 1: talented defensely. Defensively, they have not missed on a draft pick,
Speaker 1: a defensive draft pick in two years. They one of
Speaker 1: their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee. The volunteers
Speaker 1: hess four picks. The other kid from Miami is a
Speaker 1: pick six kid. I mean like they're hitting on everybody
Speaker 1: verse the two Florida State guys young. Yeah, I mean everyone.
Speaker 1: They all Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good.
Speaker 1: They're all better than their draft spot. I want to
Speaker 1: take the Rams so bad, but that numbers moving around,
Speaker 1: it tells me the Sharps were on Miami right.
Speaker 3: The wise guys have been all over Miami, and I'll
Speaker 3: tell you. You know, you and I when we did
Speaker 3: our Sunday show at ESPN, we always had a pick
Speaker 3: where we went against the wise guys and we called
Speaker 3: it the executive decision, and you just nailed the game.
Speaker 3: That is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
Speaker 3: I feel like the Ram. I bet the Rams last
Speaker 3: week as favorites against the Seahawks a miracle cover. But
Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford, there are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
Speaker 3: it's the end of the game. I need this guy
Speaker 3: to get me the cover or I don't want to
Speaker 3: be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
Speaker 3: that you don't want to be against. I don't want
Speaker 3: to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
Speaker 3: was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
Speaker 3: the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
Speaker 3: game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
Speaker 3: think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like, you know, I'm
Speaker 3: revealing a secret. His offense, as magical as it is,
Speaker 3: as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Pooka
Speaker 3: Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
Speaker 3: basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
Speaker 3: a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
Speaker 3: running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Speaker 3: Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
Speaker 3: I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
Speaker 3: I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I don't see it.
Speaker 3: I don't see why the wise guys are on the Dolphins.
Speaker 3: If you want to exact decision this, I'm with you
Speaker 3: one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
Speaker 1: four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
Speaker 1: division game, it's different. I do worry about this quarterbacks
Speaker 1: off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
Speaker 1: the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
Speaker 1: better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
Speaker 1: Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
Speaker 1: not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
Speaker 1: at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed, no
Speaker 1: old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours,
Speaker 1: I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
Speaker 1: really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 3: Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
Speaker 3: four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
Speaker 3: A lot of three and a half's out there now.
Speaker 3: The wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Speaker 3: Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
Speaker 3: like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
Speaker 3: The Bills are seventy two. They just came off of
Speaker 3: a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field goal
Speaker 3: Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the
Speaker 3: first week in November, huge huge cell high situation. The Colts,
Speaker 3: big Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson. That gives us
Speaker 3: a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in
Speaker 3: prime time. They can't even get past the twenty yard line, right,
Speaker 3: They cannot score, So all of a sudden, you've got
Speaker 3: to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the
Speaker 3: wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened
Speaker 3: in national television for the Colts, and then you got
Speaker 3: to look. The Colts have a dominant run blocking unit
Speaker 3: that is to the detriment of the Bills rush defense.
Speaker 3: So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards
Speaker 3: per play, yards are expected points on the rush, total
Speaker 3: rushes of ten plus yards, which is sort of an
Speaker 3: explosive metric, the Colts are top five. The Bills are
Speaker 3: not very good defending against the runs, so there is
Speaker 3: an advantage there, and the Cults rush defense has been
Speaker 3: getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with
Speaker 3: Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there is an opportunity
Speaker 3: here against what is the strength of the Bills defense
Speaker 3: or offense to stop them. So the wise guys are huge,
Speaker 3: huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 1: Every week there's a game I miss it's usually egregiously
Speaker 1: bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites,
Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings, what's the game I missed?
Speaker 1: It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 3: Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
Speaker 3: with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
Speaker 3: jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
Speaker 3: I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
Speaker 3: people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
Speaker 3: ask you to do anything with that game. I will
Speaker 3: say the wise guys have been on the Giants against
Speaker 3: the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask
Speaker 3: you to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised,
Speaker 3: like you brought up all the games that are most
Speaker 3: interesting to me one game. There are two games we
Speaker 3: didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised
Speaker 3: you to bring it up. Which is the Steeler and
Speaker 3: the Commander.
Speaker 1: I want it so there's every week there's a game
Speaker 1: I want to watch. I just want to watch it.
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating game. There's an argument to
Speaker 1: be made the Steelers have the best defense in the league.
Speaker 1: They've really figured out, by the way, how to use
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. Like Greg Cosell told me today, I said,
Speaker 1: it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run,
Speaker 1: defensive culture, one one, two, good weapons, a tough place
Speaker 1: to play at home. He goes, But that's exactly what
Speaker 1: the video tells you it's a poor man Seahawks team.
Speaker 1: I kind of like Pittsburgh here right getting points, Yes,
Speaker 1: you do.
Speaker 3: What's scary is you can't get to three anymore, right
Speaker 3: because it was at three. When it got to three,
Speaker 3: the wise guys, they immediately bet the three and it
Speaker 3: went down to two and a half, and it's just
Speaker 3: sort of sitting at two and a half. I would
Speaker 3: still play the two and a half. Two is a
Speaker 3: key number in the NFL now with all the extra
Speaker 3: points being missed or teams going for two more offense,
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half.
Speaker 3: But this is really the best defense. You just noted
Speaker 3: that Jad and Daniels has faced from two defensive ends
Speaker 3: who can really rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith
Speaker 3: was out for most of October, their rush metrics are
Speaker 3: not as high as they normally are. But he's been
Speaker 3: back and this is really a stellar defense. It's also
Speaker 3: a raw rob Mike Tomlin. Spot you got Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 1: He's the best underdog coach Burrow is the best underdog quarterback.
Speaker 1: I believe, yes, and I believe Tomlin getting two and
Speaker 1: a half points here against Washington's the best underdog coach colin.
Speaker 3: The numbers back you up the Mike Tomlin sixty one
Speaker 3: percent against the spread as a dog on the road
Speaker 3: in his career. He is the most profitable coach as
Speaker 3: an underdog against the spread this generation, in the history
Speaker 3: of data that we have tracking all this stuff going
Speaker 3: back about two years. The most profitable coach in this
Speaker 3: situation also twenty five and five straight up against rookie QBS.
Speaker 3: Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the Commanders
Speaker 3: because they've been extraordinarily good. The Steelers off a bye
Speaker 3: with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach,
Speaker 3: might be the time to do it. But I didn't
Speaker 3: give you the gross game, all right? Can I interest
Speaker 3: you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a
Speaker 3: half against the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1: No, you can't at all.
Speaker 3: We are playing We are playing the dead cat bounce.
Speaker 3: We have a team that has a new coach that
Speaker 3: got rid of the guy who by all accounts, and
Speaker 3: we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
Speaker 3: hated Dennis Allen.
Speaker 1: How many point Dennis Allen? They're getting three and a half.
Speaker 1: They were here. Here's the thing.
Speaker 3: The Saints are getting three and a half. They were
Speaker 3: getting four. It's down to three and a half. So
Speaker 3: you know, the wise guy on them because the public
Speaker 3: is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro joe
Speaker 3: split here. This team played so badly last week. The
Speaker 3: most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized on Twitter and if
Speaker 3: you look at the games Derek Carr started. Look, they've
Speaker 3: lost seven in a row for those games with Derek Carr.
Speaker 3: One of those games Kansas City, they lost twenty six
Speaker 3: to thirteen, but it was closer than the score the
Speaker 3: other The other three games they were by three points,
Speaker 3: two points, in one point, including one of these games
Speaker 3: against Atlanta. So I know, like the receivers are out.
Speaker 3: They just traded Lattimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to
Speaker 3: the Commanders. But this is the spot to back the Saints.
Speaker 3: You just got to hold your nose and do it.
Speaker 3: You might not bet them again the rest of the year.
Speaker 3: It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in,
Speaker 3: because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek
Speaker 3: Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 1: This is it. There's the whole ball.
Speaker 3: Of wax So, and this Atlanta team has generally been mediocre,
Speaker 3: Like they're not blowing teams out, they're getting really lucky.
Speaker 3: It's it's a situation where the number is a little
Speaker 3: bit inflated because the Falcons have been doing so well
Speaker 3: and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low.
Speaker 3: So the wise guys are on the Saints.
Speaker 1: And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
Speaker 1: it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
Speaker 1: like Pro Bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
Speaker 1: a hamstring issue, so good storied with it. Do it?
Speaker 2: Do It?
Speaker 1: Come on the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If
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