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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?

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Speaker 1: Instant reaction on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five

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Speaker 1: to thirty four, another great Thursday night football game, one

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Speaker 1: of the best games of the year. This is I

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Speaker 1: had the Bengals plus sixth tonight for this very reason.

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Speaker 1: These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored

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Speaker 1: to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work.

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Speaker 1: In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would

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Speaker 1: have gone for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense

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Speaker 1: first half a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great,

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Speaker 1: they've got momentum. But eventually a bad defense gets more tired,

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Speaker 1: it gets more beat up. You lose a couple of

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Speaker 1: players who get banged up, and by the end of

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Speaker 1: the game, you know, Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they

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Speaker 1: get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good

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Speaker 1: first quarter. A lot of defenses you know when they've

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Speaker 1: got great energy. They're aggressive offenses, and big games can

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Speaker 1: be a little tight, restrictive, conservative. But over the course

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Speaker 1: of a game, these are not great defenses, and both

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up.

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Speaker 1: I would have gone for it. First of all, I

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Speaker 1: think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it. Teams

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Speaker 1: that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the

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Speaker 1: next week. The extra fifteen snaps or whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But

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Speaker 1: you know, I want to talk about something. Is one

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Speaker 1: of the things the media does that really frustrates me

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Speaker 1: that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things.

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Speaker 1: I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to

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Speaker 1: a podcast recently and the guy was talking about, you know,

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Speaker 1: one hundred years ago or more, you know, people thought

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Speaker 1: we were going to run out of food, but you know,

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Speaker 1: things happen, fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more

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Speaker 1: people die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I

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Speaker 1: remember when I was a kid back in the late eighties,

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Speaker 1: eighty seven, eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go

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Speaker 1: from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and

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Speaker 1: now it's it can be faster than that. But there

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Speaker 1: was this, you know sense from the media it was

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Speaker 1: car desks, we're going to explode, and they did increase

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Speaker 1: initially on rural roads. But over the course of time,

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Speaker 1: there's technology advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars,

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Speaker 1: and society adapts and the media has to do a

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Speaker 1: better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll

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Speaker 1: give you another example. During COVID college football, media is

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Speaker 1: like myocarditis. You can get an infection through a virus.

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Speaker 1: It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: on average, it's treatable, and on average, the person that

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Speaker 1: gets myocarditis is in their mid forty not nineteen to

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Speaker 1: twenty years old in elite shape. So again, it's the

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Speaker 1: overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in

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Speaker 1: the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies

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Speaker 1: it out of just apathy or laziness, or they don't

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Speaker 1: do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering.

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Speaker 1: There's just a lot of smart people out there, whether

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Speaker 1: it's on the processing of food, the creation of food,

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Speaker 1: whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines.

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Speaker 1: During COVID, people figure stuff out. And the reason I

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Speaker 1: bring this up we had another great Thursday night game.

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Speaker 1: We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one

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Speaker 1: of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the

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Speaker 1: Rams was a good Thursday night game San Francisco in Seattle,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good

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Speaker 1: as an NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins showing off is that I remember about four

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Speaker 1: years ago and the media was going through a weird

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Speaker 1: time time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the

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Speaker 1: word woke started being used a lot, and you know

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Speaker 1: it can be overused and was overused, but it does exist.

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Speaker 1: And the media was just on this thing that Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night football. It was unfair to players, and it was

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Speaker 1: like I talked to NFL players and they liked Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night Football. You didn't hit that week. It was a

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Speaker 1: real light week of practice and then you know you're

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Speaker 1: off after the game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of guys it's like a second by

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys on the West Coast would go

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Speaker 1: to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the

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Speaker 1: East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it

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Speaker 1: as a second bye week. And so this idea that

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Speaker 1: it was too much for NFL players. These are twenty

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Speaker 1: five year old world class athletes that spend six and

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Speaker 1: seven figures on their bodies. They've got great training staffs

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Speaker 1: around them. They're going to be okay. And I think

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Speaker 1: again today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do

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Speaker 1: they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game?

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Speaker 1: Of course not. And again it's just and I'm part

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Speaker 1: of the media and I've overreacted before, but I thought

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Speaker 1: what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they

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Speaker 1: like to get these divisional rival games that are close.

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Speaker 1: They don't want to have to travel too far on

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Speaker 1: a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional,

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Speaker 1: and these this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great

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Speaker 1: quarterback play, two teams that know each other, uh to

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I think Zach Taytor is a smart,

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Speaker 1: clever offensive coach, and I think John Harbaugh's great and

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Speaker 1: the teams. You know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early,

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Speaker 1: but you know, they adapt their pro athletes. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I

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Speaker 1: mean Baltimore's isn't great either, but through the years it

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Speaker 1: has been pretty consistently solid. Now, the Ravens have really

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Speaker 1: poured more money into their off offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley.

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Speaker 1: They just and got Deontay Johnson, so they're pouring more

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Speaker 1: of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams

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Speaker 1: should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore

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Speaker 1: being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or there,

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Speaker 1: or Cincinnati. That's the Brown family's history. So I just

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Speaker 1: feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA.

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Speaker 1: He's not going to demand a trade, but I do

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Speaker 1: think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting

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Speaker 1: up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: did everything they could possibly do. Thought I thought that

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Speaker 1: it was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion

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Speaker 1: that was un called, not called, which is unfortunate, and

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Speaker 1: I you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen,

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Speaker 1: when you give up the points in the yards that

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,

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Speaker 1: and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: in the games officials are best served swallowing the whistle.

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Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sure you've noticed this is over the course

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Speaker 1: of the last eight to ten to twelve years, the

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Speaker 1: amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane.

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Speaker 1: You could call pass interference on every play. And I

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Speaker 1: think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence on the sport, where

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Speaker 1: you know, the Patriots just they were physical, they grabbed,

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Speaker 1: they touched, they'd wear the same colored gloves as the

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Speaker 1: team they were playing's uniform, and they were just it

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Speaker 1: was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call

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Speaker 1: pass interference on every play, and so the reality over

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Speaker 1: time it's been normalized on the edges that you just

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Speaker 1: you got to grab. Now you can't put your arm

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Speaker 1: around a guy, but you can call pass interference constantly

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Speaker 1: in this league. And they and Baltimore was flagged for

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Speaker 1: it tonight several times. Personal fouls and pass interference on

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Speaker 1: a play like that. Good luck on the road getting

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Speaker 1: that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football.

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Speaker 1: Their defense was a mess. They're tackling was bad. I

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Speaker 1: do love this about Lamar Jackson, and I've said this

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Speaker 1: before and I'll say it again. The guy was two

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety yards, four touchdowns, trailed by fourteen and

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Speaker 1: the third. One of the things I love about Lamar,

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Speaker 1: and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: and to Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're

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Speaker 1: trailing if you watch them play. They don't play any

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Speaker 1: different when they're trailing them when they're leading. And I've

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Speaker 1: always thought the line in this league, the difference between

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Speaker 1: the haves and the have nuts in quarterback play is

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Speaker 1: the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind,

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Speaker 1: when you know they have to throw. A Geno Smith

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Speaker 1: a good player, but they don't feel the same. You're

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Speaker 1: watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and a half in

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Speaker 1: the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't

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Speaker 1: tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change his body language,

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Speaker 1: his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special all

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Speaker 1: time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback,

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Speaker 1: which thankfully that's people have moved away from that. He's exceptional.

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Speaker 1: He does a really good job too. He's got a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a different throwing style, so did Philip Rivers.

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Speaker 1: You know, some guys just have a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a different you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could

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Speaker 1: be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance, you

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Speaker 1: know how like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the

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Speaker 1: late Jerry West. Justin Herbert. If the NFL ever did

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Speaker 1: a player logo, it would be a quarterback and Justin

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Speaker 1: Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect

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Speaker 1: long stride. But a lot of these guys have kind

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Speaker 1: of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes throws off his he's

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Speaker 1: not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a different style. It's a little bit more

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Speaker 1: of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of

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Speaker 1: the prettiest throws throwing motions in the league. But it

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Speaker 1: just works, and he has an ability. Lamar has an

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Speaker 1: ability to I think it's body confidence that he can

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Speaker 1: stare all over the field and then just in a

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Speaker 1: quarter second suddenly look over to the sideline where they

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Speaker 1: camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight

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Speaker 1: to twelve yards. He's just he's really got a sense

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Speaker 1: of composure and self aware and accuracy, and you know,

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Speaker 1: he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow put aduct click tonight.

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Speaker 1: It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again,

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Speaker 1: these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the

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Speaker 1: only thing I don't like about Thursday night football two

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Speaker 1: of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday.

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Speaker 1: And that's the downside to you know, if you do

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football and you do Monday night football. So

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Speaker 1: you know, Monday night Tua and Matt Stafford are playing

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Speaker 1: and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. So

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Speaker 1: four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks in the league

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Speaker 1: are not playing Sunday. You know. So you know, I

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Speaker 1: can only take so much. Will Levis Sorry, it's that's

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Speaker 1: the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games.

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Speaker 1: Seven years ago, these games six years ago, the games

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Speaker 1: were awful. I mean it was like you felt like

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Speaker 1: you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing bumblebee uniforms.

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Speaker 1: Now they you know, they're putting up an almost every

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the

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Speaker 1: best Thursday Night schedule. You've got a star quarterback tonight

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Speaker 1: you had two. And if you didn't enjoy that, I

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Speaker 1: don't you know. I like defense occasionally, but if you

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Speaker 1: didn't enjoy that, like it's you, it's not your sport.

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Speaker 1: That was just great. Great. Also had Cincinnati plus six.

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Speaker 1: Didn't know if I was going to win that at

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Speaker 1: one point, But I don't think less of Baltimore because

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Speaker 1: it's close. These division rival games. You get four, five

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Speaker 1: six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a

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Speaker 1: division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one

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Speaker 1: of the I think he's five and zero this year

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Speaker 1: as a as an underdog against the spread on the

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Speaker 1: road this year, Joe Burrow, he's a great He's now

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Speaker 1: seventeen and three. Is Joe Burrow as a three point

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Speaker 1: or more underdog as an NFL quarterback? Seventeen and three now,

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Speaker 1: So congratulations to those who followed me on DraftKings. Now

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Speaker 1: All right, I am feeling good about my picks this week.

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Speaker 1: I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,

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Speaker 1: three of the last four weeks had good college bets.

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Speaker 1: By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel

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Speaker 1: like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay short week,

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Speaker 1: all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye,

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Speaker 1: in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean

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Speaker 1: all the things you'd want short week over time other

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Speaker 1: team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank

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Speaker 1: you DraftKings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet

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Speaker 1: skis tonight, Sharper Square.

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Speaker 3: Totally sharp. The wise guys have loved this one. It

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Speaker 3: was at five and a half, got up to six,

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Speaker 3: got up to six and a half. Now it's settled

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Speaker 3: in around six. I will not be surprised if this

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Speaker 3: gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about

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Speaker 3: this game is, you know we talk all the time

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Speaker 3: about the pro joe split, right the professionals on one side,

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Speaker 3: the amateurs on another. Normally, what you get is the joe's.

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Speaker 3: The amateurs like the big, fancy favorite. In this case,

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Speaker 3: the joe's have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have

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Speaker 3: actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season,

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Speaker 3: And because they look so good in overtime against the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the joe's have been

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Speaker 3: coming in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For

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Speaker 3: your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like

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Speaker 3: the Niners coming off a bye. They like having to

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Speaker 3: fade the Bucks traveling back home in a short week

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Speaker 3: overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.

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Speaker 3: And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking at,

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Speaker 3: and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.

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Speaker 3: Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off

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Speaker 3: of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of

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Speaker 3: five and a half or more off a by on

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Speaker 3: the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells

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Speaker 3: you is that when a team is good and they're

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Speaker 3: off the by and they go on the road in

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Speaker 3: their favorites, they tend to overperform, and then you got

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Speaker 3: the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are

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Speaker 3: terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage

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Speaker 3: against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys

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Speaker 3: are with you, Simon Simon? Whyse guys are with you, Colin.

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Speaker 3: I was thinking about my bff, Simon one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: on the Niners.

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Speaker 1: Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals plus one. Now.

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Speaker 1: Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would

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Speaker 1: put me in a good mood. But I think extra

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Speaker 1: time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses

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Speaker 1: in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,

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Speaker 1: they're on their second play caller. There is no proof

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Speaker 1: that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona

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Speaker 1: at home now getting a point. I think people, I

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Speaker 1: know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high

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Speaker 1: on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.

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Speaker 1: They got really good offensive players and this is getting

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Speaker 1: to the point in the year when defensive players, I

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Speaker 1: mean the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not

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Speaker 1: that good. I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square,

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Speaker 1: all right, Well it's square.

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Speaker 3: And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer

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Speaker 3: of what this team is, right, because the Niners in

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Speaker 3: that game, they didn't have a kicker. They literally would

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Speaker 3: not kick a field goal when they were in the

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Speaker 3: red zone. They had to keep running it. And one

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Speaker 3: of those times, even though they were ahead, their running

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Speaker 3: back fumbled the ball and it sent them the Cardinals

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Speaker 3: towards a win in which they had about a five

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Speaker 3: percent chance of winning the game. In that exact moment.

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Speaker 3: The Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in

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Speaker 3: first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams,

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Speaker 3: ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of the Niners. There is

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Speaker 3: a lot of glow on this team right now, and

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Speaker 3: it is a team. To its credit, it has come

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Speaker 3: back from double digit downs in a couple of games,

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Speaker 3: and then it destroyed a Bear's team, which you and

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Speaker 3: I both know like they were primed to be destroyed.

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Speaker 3: I know I listened to your show. I know how

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Speaker 3: you feel about Ibra Flus. I know the stat you've

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Speaker 3: been drumming about him on the road. I agree with

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Speaker 3: you as a Bears fan. Terrible coach. That was the

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Speaker 3: exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: The Jets with an anybuy getting healthier. No pressure on

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean the Cardinals

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Speaker 3: cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league.

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Speaker 3: That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers to bring this

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Speaker 3: team back down to earth. The wise guys like the Jets.

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Speaker 3: The line has moved. The Jets were underdogs. The Jets

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Speaker 3: are now favorites.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I

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Speaker 1: like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week

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Speaker 1: over time, Kansas City is not a team that blows

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Speaker 1: people out Denver. Meanwhile, faced what teams do and they

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Speaker 1: realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and

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Speaker 1: play an angry Ravens team they hammered last year, The Niners,

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Speaker 1: the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.

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Speaker 1: Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be

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Speaker 1: just like not any other place in the league. Nobody,

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Speaker 1: no team humiliates more teams than Baltimore in a bad

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Speaker 1: mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean

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Speaker 1: McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best

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Speaker 1: coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: they didn't get crushed, okay, So don't just wipe that away.

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Speaker 1: Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.

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Speaker 1: Division rivals. One team's humiliated one team on a short

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Speaker 1: weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.

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Speaker 1: I still like Denverse seven and a half. Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: It was a gift at nine, It was a gift

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Speaker 3: at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and

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Speaker 3: a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where

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Speaker 3: you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do

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Speaker 3: not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys

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Speaker 3: are going to be on a huge and in this case,

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Speaker 3: seven is huge Division road underdog. Those ten to two

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Speaker 3: favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,

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Speaker 3: he has a losing record against the spread. They're not

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Speaker 3: the kind of team. And I know you've talked about

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Speaker 3: this as well. They are not a blow them out

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Speaker 3: team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with

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Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more unto the flow

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00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 3: and then understanding who they are offensively now, but they

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Speaker 3: are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,

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Speaker 3: they're beating teams by five or six points a game,

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Speaker 3: right so they are not the kind of team, and

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Speaker 3: especially in the second half, they slow it down. They

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Speaker 3: get leads in the first half, and then they slow

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Speaker 3: it down in the second half. The Broncos have a

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Speaker 3: great defense, and you can say everything you just said

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Speaker 3: about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.

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00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 3: They went on the road, they got throttled. The first

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Speaker 3: play of the game, bo Nicks throws an interception off

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Speaker 3: of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong

398
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 3: for them the rest of the day. But this is

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00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 3: a team that continues to grind and play to the

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00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 3: whistle and play to the end of the game. I

401
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true

402
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,719
Speaker 3: because bo Nicks is being treated as if he's a

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00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 3: third or fourth year quarterback. Not a first year quarterback.

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00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 3: So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in

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00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 3: this game and keep the back door open, and the

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00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 3: Chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,

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00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 3: one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that

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00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 3: are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the

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00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 3: Broncos are fifty percent against spread So.

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Speaker 1: There are times when I just don't think teams are

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Speaker 1: going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half

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Speaker 1: Texans at home against the Lions and Detroit has This

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00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: is not a game that you have circled as a

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Speaker 1: Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,

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00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: in division teams. This is kind of one of those

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Speaker 1: weird Hey we got to go on the road and

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Speaker 1: play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit

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Speaker 1: and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This

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Speaker 1: is we got to get right three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think you come out of a divisional game with

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00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: Green Bay you really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,

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Speaker 1: but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's

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Speaker 1: the home team where you feel like there's real urgency

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Speaker 1: to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half here Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to

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Speaker 3: three and a half, and I think that the wise

428
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: guys are with you here, but three will be the

429
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys

430
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.

431
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 3: The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is

432
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,

433
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 3: physical travels in football, right, running backs can have a

434
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 3: bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better

435
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 3: outdoors than indoors. Offensive lines all you're doing is lining

436
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 3: up across the guy in front of you and beating

437
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 3: him up, and the Lions do that better than any

438
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: offensive line in the league. I think that is why

439
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 3: I you know, last week, all the professional betters were

440
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the

441
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,239
Speaker 3: Lions are going to be outside. Jared Goff has a

442
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 3: bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to

443
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 3: fade a team that everybody had been making money on,

444
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 3: even as big favorites, because they thought we thought we'd

445
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 3: see the letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't

446
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 3: happen like the physical travel So I do worry about

447
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 3: the Texans being able to out physical the Lions especially.

448
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 3: We don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in

449
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 3: that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out,

450
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 3: the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the

451
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 3: Jets took that game over. So it is, it's the

452
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 3: right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not

453
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: my favorite.

454
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: Though, here's a game where I understand the hook and

455
00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: so people won't bet this side. But there are teams

456
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: that I think get healthy or get right, and the

457
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: market's not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going

458
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: to be a problem this point forward. When you look

459
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: at that receiving cor last week and all of a

460
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: sudden you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now,

461
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: it's actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,

462
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I

463
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: think they're going to start reeling off some kind of

464
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: punishing dominant wins. Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,

465
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued.

466
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would

467
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 1: take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans. For the record,

468
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 1: when we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools

469
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: gold like they can hang with bad teams. I've seen

470
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 1: overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square Chargers

471
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half.

472
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 3: What say you, Yeah, it's totally square. The only side

473
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 3: to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it

474
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 3: or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game. I'm

475
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the

476
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: Browns are cresting. You gotta get the Browns right now.

477
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 3: Jamis is back and I looked at that game and

478
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: we talked about this on the favorites several times because

479
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two

480
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 3: point favorites on the road, and if you break down

481
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 3: that handicap, Chargers should have been two point favorites on

482
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 3: the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn

483
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 3: the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line.

484
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers

485
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: built in the same mold as the Lions. As we

486
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 3: build the next twelve twenty four to thirty six months

487
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 3: with what Harribaugh was trying to do there. I love

488
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: this Chargers team. I think seven and a half points

489
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 3: is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come

490
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 3: into play in these games when the number is that

491
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: high and there's.

492
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: A hook involved. Let's talk about something really really important.

493
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan's America's

494
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495
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496
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497
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498
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Speaker 1: happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan

499
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Speaker 1: and Morgan is really really easy. Like winning in the

500
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Speaker 1: NFL is hard, we know that quarterbacking in the NFL

501
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 1: is hard, Submitting a claim is easy. You're ever injured,

502
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless

503
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: they win. For more information, go to for Thepeople dot

504
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 1: com slash colin or dial pound law from your cell phone.

505
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,240
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506
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: or pound law, pound five to two nine from your

507
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508
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509
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Speaker 1: if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is

510
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: a paid advertisement. Okay, here's a game, and I hate

511
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: to do this because I really really like the Rams

512
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: and their young defense a lot. It was plus two

513
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: and a half and I really like Miami at two

514
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's down to one, so I

515
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: think it won. I would take the Rams, but there's

516
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: a game every week where I'm like, tell me what

517
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:01,479
Speaker 1: to bet. I really I think the Rams are so

518
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: talented defensely. Defensively, they have not missed on a draft pick,

519
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: a defensive draft pick in two years. They one of

520
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee. The volunteers

521
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: hess four picks. The other kid from Miami is a

522
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: pick six kid. I mean like they're hitting on everybody

523
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: verse the two Florida State guys young. Yeah, I mean everyone.

524
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: They all Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good.

525
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: They're all better than their draft spot. I want to

526
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 1: take the Rams so bad, but that numbers moving around,

527
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: it tells me the Sharps were on Miami right.

528
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 3: The wise guys have been all over Miami, and I'll

529
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: tell you. You know, you and I when we did

530
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 3: our Sunday show at ESPN, we always had a pick

531
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 3: where we went against the wise guys and we called

532
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: it the executive decision, and you just nailed the game.

533
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: That is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.

534
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: I feel like the Ram. I bet the Rams last

535
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 3: week as favorites against the Seahawks a miracle cover. But

536
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford, there are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,

537
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: it's the end of the game. I need this guy

538
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: to get me the cover or I don't want to

539
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,

540
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people

541
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 3: that you don't want to be against. I don't want

542
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get

543
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team

544
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 3: was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,

545
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 3: the other guy from Florida State. He had a great

546
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I

547
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like, you know, I'm

548
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 3: revealing a secret. His offense, as magical as it is,

549
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 3: as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Pooka

550
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 3: Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is

551
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is

552
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 3: a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around

553
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: running back in the league right now. And that Miami

554
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So

555
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 3: I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.

556
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking.

557
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I don't see it.

558
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 3: I don't see why the wise guys are on the Dolphins.

559
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 3: If you want to exact decision this, I'm with you

560
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 3: one hundred percent.

561
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus

562
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: four at the Colts. You know, if this is a

563
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: division game, it's different. I do worry about this quarterbacks

564
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember

565
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,

566
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 1: better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.

567
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're

568
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: not the people now look at Buffalo and they look

569
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 1: at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed, no

570
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours,

571
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really

572
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: really one of the better sharp sides of the week.

573
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 3: Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at

574
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.

575
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 3: A lot of three and a half's out there now.

576
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 3: The wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.

577
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys

578
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 3: like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.

579
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 3: The Bills are seventy two. They just came off of

580
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field goal

581
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 3: Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the

582
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 3: first week in November, huge huge cell high situation. The Colts,

583
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: big Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson. That gives us

584
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 3: a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in

585
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: prime time. They can't even get past the twenty yard line, right,

586
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: They cannot score, So all of a sudden, you've got

587
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 3: to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the

588
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened

589
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: in national television for the Colts, and then you got

590
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 3: to look. The Colts have a dominant run blocking unit

591
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: that is to the detriment of the Bills rush defense.

592
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 3: So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards

593
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 3: per play, yards are expected points on the rush, total

594
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,719
Speaker 3: rushes of ten plus yards, which is sort of an

595
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 3: explosive metric, the Colts are top five. The Bills are

596
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: not very good defending against the runs, so there is

597
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: an advantage there, and the Cults rush defense has been

598
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with

599
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 3: Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there is an opportunity

600
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 3: here against what is the strength of the Bills defense

601
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: or offense to stop them. So the wise guys are huge,

602
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 3: huge fans of the culture.

603
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 1: Every week there's a game I miss it's usually egregiously

604
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites,

605
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings, what's the game I missed?

606
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: It doesn't include Jacksonville.

607
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 3: Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,

608
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 3: with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line

609
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 3: jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.

610
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most

611
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 3: people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna

612
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 3: ask you to do anything with that game. I will

613
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 3: say the wise guys have been on the Giants against

614
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 3: the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask

615
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 3: you to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised,

616
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 3: like you brought up all the games that are most

617
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 3: interesting to me one game. There are two games we

618
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 3: didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised

619
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 3: you to bring it up. Which is the Steeler and

620
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 3: the Commander.

621
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: I want it so there's every week there's a game

622
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 1: I want to watch. I just want to watch it.

623
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating game. There's an argument to

624
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,720
Speaker 1: be made the Steelers have the best defense in the league.

625
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: They've really figured out, by the way, how to use

626
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. Like Greg Cosell told me today, I said,

627
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 1: it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run,

628
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: defensive culture, one one, two, good weapons, a tough place

629
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: to play at home. He goes, But that's exactly what

630
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: the video tells you it's a poor man Seahawks team.

631
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 1: I kind of like Pittsburgh here right getting points, Yes,

632
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 1: you do.

633
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 3: What's scary is you can't get to three anymore, right

634
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 3: because it was at three. When it got to three,

635
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 3: the wise guys, they immediately bet the three and it

636
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 3: went down to two and a half, and it's just

637
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 3: sort of sitting at two and a half. I would

638
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 3: still play the two and a half. Two is a

639
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 3: key number in the NFL now with all the extra

640
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 3: points being missed or teams going for two more offense,

641
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half.

642
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: But this is really the best defense. You just noted

643
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 3: that Jad and Daniels has faced from two defensive ends

644
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: who can really rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith

645
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: was out for most of October, their rush metrics are

646
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 3: not as high as they normally are. But he's been

647
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 3: back and this is really a stellar defense. It's also

648
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: a raw rob Mike Tomlin. Spot you got Mike Tomlin.

649
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: He's the best underdog coach Burrow is the best underdog quarterback.

650
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: I believe, yes, and I believe Tomlin getting two and

651
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: a half points here against Washington's the best underdog coach colin.

652
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 3: The numbers back you up the Mike Tomlin sixty one

653
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 3: percent against the spread as a dog on the road

654
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 3: in his career. He is the most profitable coach as

655
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 3: an underdog against the spread this generation, in the history

656
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: of data that we have tracking all this stuff going

657
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: back about two years. The most profitable coach in this

658
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 3: situation also twenty five and five straight up against rookie QBS.

659
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the Commanders

660
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 3: because they've been extraordinarily good. The Steelers off a bye

661
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 3: with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach,

662
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 3: might be the time to do it. But I didn't

663
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 3: give you the gross game, all right? Can I interest

664
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 3: you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a

665
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: half against the Atlanta Falcons.

666
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: No, you can't at all.

667
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 3: We are playing We are playing the dead cat bounce.

668
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: We have a team that has a new coach that

669
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 3: got rid of the guy who by all accounts, and

670
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 3: we've been hearing this for more than a year, they

671
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 3: hated Dennis Allen.

672
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: How many point Dennis Allen? They're getting three and a half.

673
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: They were here. Here's the thing.

674
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: The Saints are getting three and a half. They were

675
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 3: getting four. It's down to three and a half. So

676
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: you know, the wise guy on them because the public

677
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 3: is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro joe

678
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 3: split here. This team played so badly last week. The

679
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 3: most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized on Twitter and if

680
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 3: you look at the games Derek Carr started. Look, they've

681
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 3: lost seven in a row for those games with Derek Carr.

682
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 3: One of those games Kansas City, they lost twenty six

683
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 3: to thirteen, but it was closer than the score the

684
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 3: other The other three games they were by three points,

685
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 3: two points, in one point, including one of these games

686
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 3: against Atlanta. So I know, like the receivers are out.

687
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: They just traded Lattimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to

688
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 3: the Commanders. But this is the spot to back the Saints.

689
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 3: You just got to hold your nose and do it.

690
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: You might not bet them again the rest of the year.

691
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 3: It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in,

692
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 3: because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek

693
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 3: Carr second game back, new coach.

694
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: This is it. There's the whole ball.

695
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 3: Of wax So, and this Atlanta team has generally been mediocre,

696
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 3: Like they're not blowing teams out, they're getting really lucky.

697
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 3: It's it's a situation where the number is a little

698
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 3: bit inflated because the Falcons have been doing so well

699
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 3: and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low.

700
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 3: So the wise guys are on the Saints.

701
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so

702
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used

703
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 1: like Pro Bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got

704
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: a hamstring issue, so good storied with it. Do it?

705
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: Do It?

706
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 1: Come on the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If

707
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 1: you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review,