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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. I'm

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's

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Speaker 1: training camp time.

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Speaker 2: We're finally here.

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Speaker 1: From Loola Marramount to Saint John Fisher University. Training camps

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Speaker 1: are in session for all thirty two NFL teams. Even

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey made it from a Taylor Swift concert all

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Speaker 1: the way to the Kansas City Chiefs training camp. I

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Speaker 1: can't think of two people with whom I'd rather discuss

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Speaker 1: training camp than the two folks I'm going to do

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Speaker 1: it with today. First, as always, my cost, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter, l Osyman.

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Speaker 3: Oh ched, isn't this the best? We're going crazy about

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes throwing deep balls and about William's just completing

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Speaker 3: passes over the middle. I mean, what a time to

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Speaker 3: be alive.

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Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna lie to you.

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Speaker 1: Of course, I've watched the Patrick Mahomes Xavier Worthy throw.

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Speaker 3: Maybe one of the best throws I've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: Probably fifty times today. And I did go to the

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Speaker 1: Bears Instagram and did swipe through every single image, because

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Speaker 1: what they do is they get you with the still

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Speaker 1: and then you have to swipe and then give you

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Speaker 1: a highlight, and then you go still in a highlight.

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Speaker 2: What I loved was two things.

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Speaker 1: One like, everything is Caleb Williams and I'm like, I'm

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Speaker 1: dissecting does he throwing the ball better than justin Field?

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Speaker 2: And two, I see my kid.

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Speaker 1: He has liked every single one of the every single

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Speaker 1: one of the posts. We're in full swing returning to

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Speaker 1: the show a very special guest, one of ESPN's most

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Speaker 1: beloved personalities, a fierce around the horn competitor, just two

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Speaker 1: weeks removed from his momentous fortieth birthday, host of the

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Speaker 1: popular Bill Barnwell Show podcast, NFL Expert, one of the

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Speaker 1: most read writers on espn dot com.

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Speaker 2: That's rights, Bill Barnwell.

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Speaker 4: I would have accepted one of ESPN's personalities, let alone

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Speaker 4: being beloved. So that's a major feather in my cap.

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Speaker 1: By the way, just being one of the ESPN's personalities

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Speaker 1: these days, that's kind of a big deal.

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Speaker 4: Sure, no, quite, at anytime, it's a big deal. I'll

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Speaker 5: Just being there better that works there.

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Speaker 1: Well, you're all of those for us, Bill Barnwell. As

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Speaker 1: fun college football action this season. All right, Bill, you

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Speaker 1: had a great column the other day. I want to

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Speaker 1: start right there because you admit that you have made

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs your super Bowl pick. Going past,

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Speaker 1: going back, going through the past four seasons, going back

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Speaker 1: for seasons.

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Speaker 2: Took me a second to put that together. You had

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Speaker 2: a column this week.

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Speaker 1: We had to put it in quotes sexy super Bowl

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Speaker 1: picks before we even talk about like who you put

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Speaker 1: on that list. Okay, explain like your methodology for how

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Speaker 1: you came to the conclusion of what defines a sexy

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl pick?

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Speaker 4: Okay. So there's no like perfect example, and it's because

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Speaker 4: the idea of what's trendy or quote unquote sexy changes

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Speaker 4: from year to year. The Jets last year are a

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Speaker 4: good example. This time last year, the Jets were a

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Speaker 4: sexy pick. But I don't think typically that was.

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Speaker 5: A very unique scenario.

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Speaker 4: I would say typically, I think when we think about

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Speaker 4: sexy teams, it's a few criteria that makes sense to me.

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Speaker 4: So I went with teams who greatly outplayed their preseason expectations.

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Speaker 4: So their preseason over unders, I grabbed from pofootball Reference

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Speaker 4: dot com. You had to overperform that by like two

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Speaker 4: two and a half wins minimum, just because you were

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Speaker 4: you know, you blew away what people were expecting from

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Speaker 4: the year the year before. Had to be competitive, ideally

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Speaker 4: win a postseason game. I was willing to take a

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Speaker 4: team that lost in the postseason if they were competitive

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Speaker 4: in that game. And I think, most importantly, the one

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Speaker 4: that's kind of the through line through so many of

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Speaker 4: these teams a young quarterback that broke through last year.

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Speaker 4: Either it was a rookie who had a great season,

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Speaker 4: maybe exceeded expectations, maybe a guy in his second or

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Speaker 4: third year who took that jump forward and really looked

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Speaker 4: like a superstar in the making, maybe an MVP candidate

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Speaker 4: for the upcoming season. And I went through history and

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Speaker 4: went through all those teams and entirely history about through

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Speaker 4: about twenty eleven. So that was kind of when the

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Speaker 4: NFL went to the sloted draft model, really kind of

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Speaker 4: the line of demarcation between the past NFL and the

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Speaker 4: current kind of NFL market. And I have to say

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Speaker 4: I was kind of expecting to dispel the idea that

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Speaker 4: the sexy teams should be sexy. But as it turns out,

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Speaker 4: there might be something behind this trend and these trendy

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Speaker 4: teams being a little better than we might hope.

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Speaker 1: Give me an example of why that is going to

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Speaker 1: the past if passed his prologue, give me an example

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Speaker 1: of the sexy teams that proved this theory.

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Speaker 4: Yep, So let's go back to I want to say

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Speaker 4: this is twenty thirteen. This would have been the second

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Speaker 4: year for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, where that

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Speaker 4: team did exceed expectations. Remember, Russ wasn't even supposed to

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Speaker 4: start his rookie season. Matt Flynn, who they signed from

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Speaker 4: the Packers, was supposed to be the supposed to be

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Speaker 4: the starter. Russ wins the job in training camp from

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Speaker 4: Matt Flynn. Seahawks have a good year. Russ got better

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Speaker 4: as the year went along, but he was still Really

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Speaker 4: it was really Marshall and Lynch in the defense and

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Speaker 4: Russ kind of along for the ride. He plays well

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Speaker 4: late into the year. In the postseason, they beat beat

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Speaker 4: Washington in that really ugly game of Robert Griffin Tori's ACL.

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Speaker 4: That Washington team also would have been a trendy team.

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Speaker 4: The next year, and then they lose to the Falcons

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Speaker 4: in a classic in the divisional round. So young Quarterback

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Speaker 4: exceeded expectations, won a playoff game, perfect criteria, perfect example

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Speaker 4: of a trendy team. They go the next year, Russ improves,

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Speaker 4: they have a young roster that gets better. They win

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Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. Another start back being the twenty nineteen Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: the Patrick Mahomes third season. His first year, he's on

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Speaker 4: the bench most of the year, your two he wins MVP.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs do exceed expectations there, I think the top

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Speaker 4: seed in the AFC that year, but they do lose

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Speaker 4: to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. So the

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Speaker 4: following year, you know, young Quarterback took them as far

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Speaker 4: as they could go. MVP from the year ago, classic

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Speaker 4: trendy super Bowl pick, and they go out and win

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Speaker 4: a Super Bowl. There are plenty of examples of teams

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Speaker 4: that didn't live up to expectations. The Mits Trubisky Bears

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Speaker 4: after the double doink might be the most classic example.

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Speaker 4: The Browns with Baker Mayfield a couple of times where

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Speaker 4: he looked like he was breaking out. You know, teams

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Speaker 4: like that were again young quarterback, exceeded expectations. But we

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Speaker 4: have a few teams this year who kind of fit

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Speaker 4: this criteria that makes for an exciting mix we don't

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Speaker 4: normally have. I would say at least three teams who

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Speaker 4: come close to fitting our idea of what a trendy

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl pick might be here in July.

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Speaker 1: All right, So before we get to that, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: ask Simon to guests which ones you're talking about. But

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Speaker 1: one team that was randy last year that didn't get

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Speaker 1: there the Jags, And like, when you think about those

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Speaker 1: teams that they were over that two and a half

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Speaker 1: win beyond their expectations threshold, they had a young quarterback,

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Speaker 1: they advanced in the playoffs, that team cratered in the

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Speaker 1: second half of the year. Why were they an exception

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Speaker 1: to this rule?

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Speaker 4: Well, treffor Lawrence got hurt. I mean, they were in

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Speaker 4: position to be the one seed in the AFC. Remember

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Speaker 4: they had that Monday night game they were playing the Bengals.

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Speaker 4: It was the Joe Burrow less Bengals, and they were

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Speaker 4: I want to say they had either inherited the one

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Speaker 4: seed because teams had lost on Sunday, or a win

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Speaker 4: would have put them in the position to be the

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Speaker 4: one seed in the AFC heading into the final few

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Speaker 4: weeks of the year. They lose treffor Lawrence gets injured

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Speaker 4: and they don't win a single game the rest of

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Speaker 4: the way. There were other issues with that team really

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Speaker 4: never really fit the way that I think people were

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Speaker 4: hoping that he was this time last year. The defense,

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen had a great year, but Chervon Walker was good,

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Speaker 4: not great. Secondary had some issues. But we could be

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Speaker 4: sitting here having the same conversation about the teams we're

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Speaker 4: going to mention as trendy teams heading into this season

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Speaker 4: where on paper, you know, you can see a scenario

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Speaker 4: where they everything goes right for them and they are

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl contenders. We just know that historically, typically, unless

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Speaker 4: you're that Seahawks team or that Chiefs team, or you know,

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Speaker 4: other teams in the past, usually something does go wrong.

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Speaker 4: There is something that seems great on paper that doesn't

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Speaker 4: actually play out that well in reality.

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Speaker 1: Hi, Simon, who do you think these these sexy teams

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Speaker 1: are that Bill was referring to?

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Speaker 2: He mentioned three of them.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm just gonna pick it back what we's saying that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not saying that football has become boring,

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Speaker 3: but I feel like there's guys like Bill out that

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Speaker 3: are so smart now that you know, I like to

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Speaker 3: say that people get things.

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Speaker 5: Wrong all the time.

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Speaker 4: We've been pretty right.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 3: The most hypes up team two years ago is the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: They made to the super Bowl last year forty nine

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Speaker 3: ers were I mean, people did not stop them with

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers in the offseason. Last year they

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Speaker 3: made it the super Bowl. So we've kind of seen

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Speaker 3: it catch up, right. There's so many smart people in

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Speaker 3: the industry now they know what they're talking about. They're

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Speaker 3: gonna nail these teams, and then, unfortunately for them and us,

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Speaker 3: we have to talk about them for five months until

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Speaker 3: the season kicked off. So that's why people are like

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Speaker 3: all these hype teams, and I can nail two of

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Speaker 3: them right at the top because I know easy it

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Speaker 3: is the third one. I'm not going to be so

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Speaker 3: sure about, but I know it's me Houston for one,

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Speaker 3: We've already talked about. They dominated this offseason, adding pieces

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Speaker 3: to that offense, offensive line, defensive line, wide receiver position,

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Speaker 3: the running back position. He's got to have Houston. And

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Speaker 3: then the second one is going to be everyone's favorite pick,

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Speaker 3: right Chad. It's Green Bay. I mean Green Bay. We

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Speaker 3: talked about. They are going to be the all hype team.

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Speaker 3: It's all there. Jordan Love finished the season going eighteen

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Speaker 3: to one touchdown interception ratio. It's like, how can Bill

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Speaker 3: not have them on his list? The third one, I

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Speaker 3: don't know, so I'm excited to hear what that one is.

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Speaker 3: But those will be my two guesses on teams. I

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Speaker 3: feel like they have to be on the list because

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Speaker 3: they're just They're sexy. There they are, and I hope

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Speaker 3: they are in that list.

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Speaker 5: Very stupid from Simon.

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Speaker 2: Simon. Simon is nailing it.

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Speaker 1: And when I read the story, I was I was

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Speaker 1: a little bit bummed when I read the story because

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Speaker 1: I wanted to be surprised and it speaks a little

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Speaker 1: bit to what Simon is talking about. And obviously we

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Speaker 1: haven't named the third team yet. The third team was

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Speaker 1: the same team that everybody was so excited about last

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Speaker 1: year as well, and then kind of met expectations this

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Speaker 1: past year. We're talking about the Lions, So the Lions

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Speaker 1: and the Texans. It's a it's a little like the

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Speaker 1: texts that you can forget about the Lions almost because

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Speaker 1: they met so many of the expectations and they were

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Speaker 1: a sexy team the year before.

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Speaker 2: But Simon's not wrong.

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Speaker 1: Like everybody can see it, like what your philosophy about

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Speaker 1: the sexy team is bringing structure and rigor to an

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Speaker 1: idea that sort of everybody feels that is in the atmosphere,

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Speaker 1: and so I'm glad you you did it, but are

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Speaker 1: also like, it's the same teams everybody's talking about, and

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Speaker 1: they're sexy. It's why they're sexy. But it also makes

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Speaker 1: you feel like I can't back these teams because everybody

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Speaker 1: is back in these teams at this point, so now

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Speaker 1: I got to go against it. The Packers have a

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Speaker 1: significant issue right now. Quote significant. It's the quote s

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Speaker 1: words podcast. Jordan Love isn't practicing and he's not going

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Speaker 1: to practice until he gets a new deal. In your mind,

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Speaker 1: what kind of impact does that have on anything about

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Speaker 1: to do with the Packers' success not.

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Speaker 4: Much, because I really it's hard for me to believe

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Speaker 4: that deal's not going to get done. Jordan Love is

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Speaker 4: in the actual final year of his current contract that

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Speaker 4: he signed as sort of like a hedge almost like

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Speaker 4: he really he didn't get his fift year option picked up,

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Speaker 4: but the Packers also didn't decline it. They sort of

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Speaker 4: found this weird middle ground where they gave a little

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Speaker 4: bit more than what a little bit less than what

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Speaker 4: the fifthye option would have guaranteed him, but we're able

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Speaker 4: to spread it that over two years for cat purposes.

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Speaker 4: It's really unique. There's not really any other players who

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Speaker 4: have done that.

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Speaker 5: And so.

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Speaker 4: What's made this tough in a way is that there's

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Speaker 4: not really comparables. You have that element where you know,

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Speaker 4: like with a Trevor Lawrence contract, it's okay, what are

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Speaker 4: the other quarterbacks after your three kit who are playing

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Speaker 4: at Trevor Lawrence's level, that's not a hard deal to negotiate.

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Speaker 4: This one is because there's not really that contractual comparable.

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Speaker 4: And then in terms of his experience, Jordan Love sat

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Speaker 4: for three years basically before becoming the starter in Green Bay,

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Speaker 4: and the only other quarterback who's really done that happens

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Speaker 4: to be Aaron Rodgers, the guy who proceeded Jordan.

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Speaker 5: Love all those years ago.

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Speaker 4: So it's not there's not that contractual comparable in terms

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Speaker 4: of or the experience comparable, and so it's a little

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Speaker 4: harder to get this done than it would be for

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Speaker 4: other quarterbacks. But I do think this is going to

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Speaker 4: get done for camp even really you know, gets into

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Speaker 4: high gears. So to me, it doesn't it seem like

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Speaker 4: it's going to be a big hindrance to the Packers.

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Speaker 4: If we get to the end of camp, or we're

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Speaker 4: halfway through camp in preseason starting and then he's still

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Speaker 4: not practicing, that's a concern. But I would be surprised

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Speaker 4: if this wasn't done by you know, Arthur at the

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Speaker 4: end of this week or at the latest the end

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Speaker 4: of next week.

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Speaker 2: So here's the question.

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Speaker 1: Yes, take the Packers out of it, Simon. I want

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Speaker 1: your answer on this too. Take the Packers out of it,

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Speaker 1: because I think of the Packers, Lions and Texans, I

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Speaker 1: think the Packers are probably the.

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Speaker 2: Most likely to regress.

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Speaker 1: There's too much there's a lot of sort of noise

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Speaker 1: in all those signals from last year, even Bill, you

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Speaker 1: pointed out in your story like they barely were above

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Speaker 1: that threshold. In fact, they might not have even been above.

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Speaker 1: I think they were only one and a half games

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Speaker 1: above the threshold of what you have sort of established.

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Speaker 1: So we're above their expected win total. I think they

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Speaker 1: were at nine. They were at seven and a half

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Speaker 1: for the expected win total. Someone is going to regress.

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Speaker 2: The Texans in the Lions are not going.

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Speaker 1: To meet in the Super Bowl, right, so you don't know,

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Speaker 1: but you also do know and so and by the way,

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Speaker 1: I'm totally making that bet. I am one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: making a future's bet on the Texans and the Lions.

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Speaker 1: I did this last year. Evan Abrams, our research genius,

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Speaker 1: has a stat that now it's now true for ten

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Speaker 1: of the last eleven years, the teams with the five

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Speaker 1: lowest odds to make the Super Bowl, and they all

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Speaker 1: had to be I think twelve to one or shorter

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Speaker 1: have played each other in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: So I made a round robin bet last year.

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Speaker 1: I had, you know, Chiefs Eagles, Chiefs, Niners, Bengals, Eagles, Bagels, Niners,

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Speaker 1: Bill's Eagles, Bill's Niners. And you know that was one

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Speaker 1: of my bigger pay days of the year because I

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Speaker 1: think it was like thirty to one. But who's more

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Speaker 1: likely to regress, Simon, Lions or Texans.

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Speaker 3: I would go with the Lions just because I do

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Speaker 3: think their division is harder than it was last year.

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Speaker 3: Like they're not going to have her Kirk Cousins injured,

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Speaker 3: They're not gonna have a note adjustin fields. Who's you know,

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Speaker 3: he was kind of banged up and he wasn't playing

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Speaker 3: the highest level. And Green Bay was so improven they

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Speaker 3: really five find their prove until you know, week what nine,

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Speaker 3: week ten? So I could definitely see the Lions. But

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Speaker 3: at the same time, you could say the same thing

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Speaker 3: about the Houston's division. I mean, they're much improved as well.

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Speaker 3: But if I'm just looking at, you know, little chinks

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Speaker 3: in the army that I could believe in, I guess

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Speaker 3: it would be Detroit.

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Speaker 2: But it's really tough.

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Speaker 5: Chad.

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Speaker 3: Like both these teams, I just I can't see either

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Speaker 3: of them not making the PLAYFFS or just they just

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Speaker 3: they've really nailed the off season, both these teams.

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Speaker 4: Bill, I'm gonna I'm gonna make the case for both teams,

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Speaker 4: and I want to hear what you think, Chad, I

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Speaker 4: want your pick between these two. So the Lions had

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Speaker 4: the point differential of a ten win team. They were

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Speaker 4: twelve and five, but they're point differential plug it into

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Speaker 4: a formula that I believe they were well moorriable people

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Speaker 4: came up with back in the day, and they really

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Speaker 4: were more of a ten win team than a twelve

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Speaker 4: win team, and that was a little surprising to me.

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Speaker 4: I think they were a team that, you know, they

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Speaker 4: didn't feel very weak, but you go back and look,

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Speaker 4: I mean, they got blown out by the Ravens in

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Speaker 4: mid season, they lost to the Packers, they lost to

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Speaker 4: the Bears by two touchdowns. They lost to the Cowboys

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Speaker 4: in that game. More realistically, they probably should have won,

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Speaker 4: but they lost to the Cowboys. But there was not

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Speaker 4: that underlying level of the lead performance that comes with

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Speaker 4: other twelve win teams, So that was a concern for me.

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Speaker 4: Simon mentioned the division. Their schedule is tougher. They're playing

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Speaker 4: the first place schedule this year in the NFC norths

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Speaker 4: and that it's a difference. The Texans, on the other hand,

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Speaker 4: ten and seven, so they kind of were about as

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Speaker 4: good as their underlying performance suggested. They had a ton

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Speaker 4: of injuries, especially along the offensive line, which are not

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Speaker 4: likely to recur. But there's this unique thing about the

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Speaker 4: Texans that's different from most of the other sexy teams

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Speaker 4: we would talk about from the past, or most of

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Speaker 4: the other teams we expect to kind of make that breakthrough.

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Speaker 4: You think about the Texans, you think about CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 4: Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, Nico Collins, Tank Dell. Those are

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Speaker 4: all young players in the prime of their careers, and

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Speaker 4: that's great. They do have a young core around that core. Nickossario,

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Speaker 4: the former Patriots general manager, has really been aggressive in

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Speaker 4: adding free agents, not just this year with Daniel Hunter

381
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Speaker 4: and guys like that, but really to fill out the roster.

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Speaker 4: Of the last few years, they've been a team that's

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Speaker 4: heavily relied on veteran free agents on short term deals.

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Speaker 4: And so the Packers were the youngest team in football

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Speaker 4: last year. The Lions were one of the five youngest

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Speaker 4: teams in football last year. The Texans, I believe I'd

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Speaker 4: have to get the exact number in front of me.

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Speaker 4: They were on the older side. I think they were

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Speaker 4: one of the ten oldest teams in football a year ago.

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Speaker 4: On a stat by staff basis just strictly who is

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Speaker 4: on the field and how old each player is at

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Speaker 4: that time. So I know the Texans their best players

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Speaker 4: are young, and that's viable because you want those guys

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Speaker 4: to keep improving and that's what typically leads to a

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Speaker 4: breakthrough for some of these trendy teams. But there's a

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Speaker 4: lot of older players surrounding that core, and so I

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Speaker 4: kind of feel like maybe our expectations for the rest

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Speaker 4: of the players around that young core are a little

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Speaker 4: too high. I don't know which are either of those

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Speaker 4: we're convincing. I don't know if you want to believe

401
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Speaker 4: in either of them, but.

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Speaker 1: Oh I don't need convincing on either one. I have

403
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Speaker 1: a very specific opinion on this, and it pains me

404
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Speaker 1: because I love the Detroit Lions.

405
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Speaker 2: I love the ethos, I.

406
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Speaker 1: Love Dan Campbell, I love Jared Goff as a comebacks story.

407
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Speaker 1: I love the way they draft, I love the way

408
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Speaker 1: they play. But they are also a.

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Speaker 2: Thin line team.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean is every single game they could

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Speaker 1: be a fourth down away. We saw the dichotomy in

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Speaker 1: that championship game against the Niners. Right in the first half,

413
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Speaker 1: everything's going perfectly they take the right risks, they all

414
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Speaker 1: go well. In the second half everything's going badly. They

415
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Speaker 1: take the same risks, it goes badly.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 1: The way that their games play, they've got to win

418
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Speaker 1: a lot of the risky plays in order to achieve

419
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Speaker 1: at the level that they achieved last year. And I

420
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Speaker 1: think that makes them ripe for aggression, whereas the Texans

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Speaker 1: to me, have such a higher ceiling. Also because I

422
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Speaker 1: think CJ. Stroud is better than Jared Goff. I think

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Speaker 1: on the end with Will Anderson, he's equal to Aiden Hutchinson.

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Speaker 1: Now they've added Hunter on the other side, Like, this

425
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: is a team that has a very good mix. To me,

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Speaker 1: the biggest challenge with them is we talked about the Jaguars.

427
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Speaker 1: The Jaguars got snake bit in the second half of

428
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Speaker 1: the year last year. So if Trevor Lawrence all of

429
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Speaker 1: a sudden is good again, then they're that much more

430
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Speaker 1: competitive with the Texans. That makes it a lot more challenging.

431
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Speaker 1: But if you look at me, if you're asking me,

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Speaker 1: the Lions are ripe for regression right now. The Lions

433
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Speaker 1: twelve to one to win the Super Bowl, the Texans

434
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Speaker 1: nineteen to one to win the Super Bowl. So I

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Speaker 1: go to you, Simon Hunter, are you more likely to

436
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Speaker 1: bet the Lions to win the Super Bowl or the

437
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Speaker 1: Texans to win the Super Bowl?

438
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: I'm going to go lines, even though it's not a

439
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 3: great price, just because I don't need to face my homes.

440
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: Like we've seen a time with them again, things going

441
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 3: to break a certain way where if he's not there,

442
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 3: every team in the NFC has a chance now, And yeah,

443
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 3: I totally agree with what both of you guys have said,

444
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 3: but it is one of those things where they're a

445
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 3: high variance team right just because of their coach. So

446
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 3: at that number, I honestly think it's a fair price

447
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 3: for Houston as well, Like twenty to one nineteen o one,

448
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 3: that sounds right for them.

449
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 2: I wish it was a little higher.

450
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: Obviously for the Lions, but twelve to one in a

451
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 3: no Mahomes conference like, that's a good price to me.

452
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 1: By the way, Simon, you and I have been banging

453
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 1: on the Bengals since early in the offseason when they

454
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:21,479
Speaker 1: were in the plus twenty two to one category. They

455
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: are now thirteen to one.

456
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: They the shortest.

457
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 1: Odds ahead of the Buffalo Bills. Bill do you have

458
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: an opinion on the Bengals.

459
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 5: I love the Bengals.

460
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 4: I think they are super underrated. I don't know that

461
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 4: I agree with Joe Burrow that he's been forgotten, but

462
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 4: I do believe that the Bengals are a team that

463
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 4: last year kind of everything that could have gone wrong.

464
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 4: I mean, Burrow was hurt heading into the year. It

465
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 4: was only really healthy for a couple of weeks in

466
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,479
Speaker 4: the defense. Really, you know, I thought like they were

467
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 4: limited with what they could do because of the changes

468
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 4: they made. So they as part of you know, accounting

469
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: for Burrow's contract, which was going to grow dramatically after

470
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 4: he signed his deal, they sort of prepared to lose

471
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 4: move on from players, like they let Jesse Bates, their

472
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 4: star safety go. They let Von Bell and other very

473
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 4: talented starting safety go and they used young players to

474
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 4: replace those guys, and they weren't up to the task.

475
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 4: Blue Annaarumo, they're really talented defensive coordinator to such a

476
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 4: good job of coming up with exotic blitzes, exotic pressures.

477
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 4: You know, he'll play, he'll blit seven to one play,

478
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 4: he'll drop aiden to coverage on the next and to

479
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 4: do that, you have to have a back end, you trust,

480
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 4: you have to have safeties who can play both spots,

481
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 4: safeties who can cover half the field, who can play

482
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 4: center field. And they didn't have that last year, and

483
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: so it led to too many big plays and they

484
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 4: had to be more vanilla on defense. This year, they

485
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 4: bring back Von Bell, they spend you know, Stone away

486
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 4: from the Ravens. Now they have that ability to be

487
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 4: more creative on the defensive side of the ball. And

488
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 4: that's the only thing in the playoffs historically, well two things.

489
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 4: Either Mahomes that does not have his entire offensive line

490
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 4: and the Buccaneers can blitz them and win easily, or

491
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 4: you slow him down as a post that processor that

492
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 4: to the comeback in the second half for the Bengals

493
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 4: in the AFC Championship Game a few years ago. Now,

494
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 4: I have a question for you guys, Besse, I trust you,

495
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 4: I respect you. I feel like this is a we

496
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 4: can have a more thoughtful conversation than just strictly the

497
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 4: sexy picks for twenty twenty four. Here's my question for

498
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 4: you both. If you had to pick the sexy or

499
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: trendy team that we're going to be having this conversation

500
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five about who's that team.

501
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: We're going to get to that answer right after this

502
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: message from game Time. Simon, can you name the fastest

503
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?

504
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 5: Game Time?

505
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 1: That's right, it's game Time. I love Game Time for

506
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I

507
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing

508
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: last minute deals including pro and college basketball and football,

509
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: speaking of which, I'm actually opening the game Time app

510
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: right now from my home here in Connecticut.

511
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: And guess what I.

512
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 1: Can get in to see New York Yankees baseball tomorrow

513
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: night in the Bronx for less than sixty bucks. No

514
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game Time app. Get

515
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: out have some fun this week.

516
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 2: You deserve it.

517
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your

518
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: first purchased terms apply again. Just download the game Time

519
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: app and use code Favorites for twenty dollars off your

520
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 1: first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices gear run te.

521
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 1: I love Burnwall's question. There's only one team that is

522
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: the right answer. But Simon, I'll let you. I'll let you.

523
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: Give an answer, and then I'll give the right answer.

524
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 3: I wont still chests. We're on the same page of

525
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 3: that one. So I'll go instead of NFC, I'll go AFC.

526
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Colts. I'm really drinking the

527
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: cool it. I love stiching, and you know, Chad knows.

528
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 3: I'm a big believe for Anthony Richardson if he does

529
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 3: take that next step right because we only saw a

530
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: little bit of it, but I love what we saw,

531
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 3: like him picking his time to run with like third

532
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: design plays everything about the Colts. I mean, pidman and

533
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 3: historically underrated as a wide receiver, I think he's incredible.

534
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: Third D line has a rotation of a bunch of

535
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: no name guys. They're all good though, they all can

536
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 3: get pressure, and their detached are solid. To me, it's

537
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 3: all there for the cold team that if they shocked

538
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 3: the one they won that division, I could easily see

539
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 3: them being the darling next year. I mean, just as

540
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 3: body type two that Cam Newton look like that big,

541
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 3: strong athletic runner we love. I mean, it's just visually

542
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 3: pleasing to us. So I'll go to AFC. Chad, go ahead.

543
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 2: I was gonna say that.

544
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: I mean, there's no doubt that's a team we got

545
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 3: to talk about Go ahead, Chad.

546
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 1: It's the Bears, bill, How is it not the Bears,

547
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: Like what they're going to do this year with Caleb Williams,

548
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 1: what they're going to do with Roma DOONSDA, what they

549
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:40,120
Speaker 1: can do with a revamped defense. It is a critical year,

550
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: like if they end up having to blow up the

551
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 1: coaching staff, and I don't know what's sort of the

552
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: line of demarcation or what the criteria to put her

553
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 1: in corporate speak, with the KPIs are going to be

554
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 1: for that coaching staff to be able to keep their

555
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: job into the next season.

556
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: But how could it not be the Bears.

557
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 4: Well, the Bears are the team I expected Chad to pick.

558
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 4: I know this podcast thoughts about the Bears. I know

559
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 4: this is a known Bears loving podcast going back to

560
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 4: last year as well.

561
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 2: I am nothing if not predictable.

562
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 4: Well that is fine. I think the Bears are a

563
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 4: very very reasonable pick.

564
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 2: And I do have another team though, but I want.

565
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 4: To have the team I was going to say, it's

566
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 4: not the Bears or the culture. I think both those

567
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 4: picks are very solid. I think the Bears are a

568
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: good pick because I think the Bears are likely to improve,

569
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 4: but not be a super Bowl caliber team, Like they're

570
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 4: going to be just good enough that people can see

571
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 4: the Caleb Williams magic happening. They can say, Okay, you

572
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 4: know we're gonna sitting here next offseason.

573
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 2: Man.

574
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: The Bears finally addressed their offensive line. They went out

575
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 4: and drafted a tackle in the first round. They added

576
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 4: that other edge rusher next to Montest Sweat. They finally

577
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: got the pieces they need. They went nine, they went

578
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 4: eight and nine, and they went they went nine and eight.

579
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 4: They went nine and eight, but they won six of

580
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 4: their last eight games. Caleb Williams had fourteen touchdowns against

581
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 4: two picks in that stretch. This is going to be

582
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 4: a team that takes that leap. I don't. I think

583
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: that's a very reasonable and even likely scenario. But there's

584
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 4: a team that nobody is talking about right now, and

585
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 4: I don't understand it because we've seen it work before.

586
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:25,719
Speaker 4: Do you know who it is?

587
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: Well, is it the Arizona Cardinals.

588
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 4: It's not.

589
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 5: It's not the Arizona Cardinals.

590
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 4: Okay, we're talking about this team even less than the

591
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 4: Arizona Cardinals. And I don't understand why this team is

592
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Chargers Chad and Simon ah Arger Idea

593
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 4: who have a head coach in Jim Harbaugh who took

594
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 4: over a Niners team that have not had a winning

595
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 4: season in eight years and went thirteen and three. The

596
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 4: quarterback of the team is Alex Smith, who the fans

597
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 4: were chanting we want David Carr at the year before

598
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 4: he left in three agency did not want to go.

599
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,719
Speaker 4: Harbaugh brought him back and they won thirteen games. They

600
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 4: immediately improved. The Chargers have Justin Herbert. They have a

601
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 4: quarterback who I think we all love. He has had

602
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 4: his ifty games here were there, But like I don't

603
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 4: need to sell you on Justin Herbert playing at a

604
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 4: high level. They were a team that greatly underperformed their

605
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 4: point differential last year five and twelve with a seven

606
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 4: point differential. Even though the Raiders dropped like one hundred

607
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: and seventeen points on them in December, there was still

608
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 4: much below expectations. They're getting a massive coaching upgrade, their

609
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: quarterback is playing at a high level. They massively improved

610
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 4: their offensive line this offseason. They're not a sexy pick

611
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 4: right now, but would you not see a scenario where

612
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 4: they go nine and eight or ten and seven next year,

613
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 4: and we're sitting saying, man, they got an elite coach,

614
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 4: they have an elite quarterback. They finally got the defensive

615
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 4: pieces they needed next to Jolly Bosa and Khalil Mack.

616
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 4: They improved in the secondary. Hardbaugh's got them going. They

617
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: they beat the let's pick on a team, they beat

618
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 4: the Ravens, and the postseason they beat the Ravens in

619
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 4: Baltimore in the wildcard round. They lost to by three

620
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: points to the Chiefs and the division roun But they'd

621
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 4: not be a team you see as a sexy pick

622
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 4: next year.

623
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: Completely, can totally see it. The challenge I have with

624
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: with AFC teams is the quarterback lineup is just stacked, right,

625
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: So Patrick Mahomes is going to be Tom Brady esque, Right,

626
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 1: It's always going to be something no matter what is

627
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: happening with the talents on his team, You're always going

628
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: to have to beat.

629
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, all right.

630
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson now a two time MVP, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow,

631
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: who is the only guy who can beat Patrick Mahomes, Like,

632
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: you go up and down without that lineup? And the

633
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: AFC is loaded and in the NFC there's more of

634
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: a chance to be sexy because there's fewer teams and

635
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that are sexy. So to me, I would lean

636
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: NFC teams. That's why I also I was I thought

637
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: you might say the Cardinals because they showed some promise

638
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 1: last year and I was impressed with how much heart

639
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: they had and with the way Kyler Murray played with

640
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: that team, and they got better and they got more talented.

641
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: So that's why I thought, like, h, the Cardinals could

642
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: be interesting in what is generally a weaker conference, no.

643
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 4: Question, And that's a really valid argument for the teams

644
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 4: in the ANFC. I think the you know, a team

645
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 4: like the Panthers, who I'm not high on, but like

646
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: if Bryke hung totally turns things around, they could be

647
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: that team because there's the division is so weak. But

648
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 4: I would point out c J. Stroud like, who would

649
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: have thought a year ago, Yeah, that's sitting here having

650
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: a conversation. All those quarterbacks were there. We were more

651
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: high on Lawrence when they were a year ago. We

652
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 4: were more high on Herbert a year ago than we

653
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 4: are now, and CJ. Stroud still managed to break through.

654
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 4: So I feel like, if you get the right caliber

655
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 4: of quarterback, and I think Justin Herbert can be that guy.

656
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: You're going to get sort of admitted to that club

657
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 4: where even if you're not you don't have Mahomes, you

658
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 4: would still have a quarterback who can beat Mahomes on

659
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 4: his best day. And I think Justin Herbert are showing

660
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 4: you can do that in the years past.

661
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting, Simon, we have not mentioned the

662
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys once, and Bill, who was excited to be

663
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: an ESPN personality, might have his ESPN personality badge taken

664
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:30,239
Speaker 1: away because we have not mentioned the Cowboys as a

665
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: sexy team this year or as a sexy team for

666
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: the future. Why do you think they don't qualify to

667
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: be a sexy team now and into the future.

668
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 3: Ah, I mean, there's a bunch of reasons. I think

669
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 3: I think everyone's come around Chad. Right, Even last year

670
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 3: people were still drinking the dak cool. They they're like,

671
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 3: you know what, you can't fault them for all their

672
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 3: woes in the playoffs everything like that. After last year,

673
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: those people are totally off the boat, right. You don't

674
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: hear those people at all, just because those pick sixes,

675
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 3: we're so alarming and so not Dak, Like you just

676
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 3: don't see Dak play that way where he just looked

677
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: totally lost throwing balls over the middle in a triple coverage.

678
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 3: It was really it was bizarre. So to me, they're

679
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 3: not sexy just because I think people have been burned

680
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 3: so hard. And we've never had a team that has

681
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 3: they're all Pro number one receiver not signed for the future,

682
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 3: and then they're all Pro number one quarterback not signed

683
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 3: for the future. We've never seen this chat at least

684
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: I can't remember my lifetime a team that has the

685
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 3: guy quarterback the guy receiver and both of them are

686
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 3: playing on their final year their deal. In we've never

687
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 3: seen a quarterback like Dak. Well, I guess Kirk Cousins

688
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: had the power, but Dak did something crazy to this contract,

689
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 3: which I would love to help hear.

690
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 4: Bill's take on.

691
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 3: Dak's contract cannot be tagged when his contract runs out

692
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 3: the end of this season, which means Dak, if he

693
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 3: doesn't want to sign a contract for sixty million per year,

694
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: he can go test the market. There is not a

695
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 3: thing Dallas can do. And if he does do this,

696
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 3: I mean again, Bill can check this. I think it's

697
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: fifty million. It's to cap dead cap next year. Like,

698
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: that's that's the power Dak has right now over the Cowboys.

699
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 3: So I would love her Bill's take on it because

700
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 3: it's we've never seen anything like this, and this is

701
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: the lowest I feel like the public perception is on

702
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 3: the Cowboys since Dak's been there at the quarterback position.

703
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, leverage is a juicy thing when it comes to

704
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 4: NFL contract Some would say some would say, quote unquote sexy.

705
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 4: The leverage is a very valuable thing because it's it

706
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 4: forces teams to do things they don't necessarily want to do.

707
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 4: When Dak signed his last deal a few years ago,

708
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 4: remember he signed if he played on a franchise tag

709
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 4: the year he got hurt, and then the following year

710
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 4: he was going to play in a second franchise tag.

711
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 4: If the Cowboys didn't sign him, which would have been

712
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,479
Speaker 4: the following year, he would have become a free agent.

713
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 4: Teams can franchise guys three times technically, but in reality

714
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 4: it is not something that teams do in practice. It

715
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 4: would have been an astronomical sum for Dak. So really

716
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 4: he was one year away from the exact situation he

717
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 4: is now unrestricted free agency Cowboys using him for nothing,

718
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 4: and the Cowboys capitulated for all to talk about what

719
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 4: they didn't want to do. They didn't want to pay

720
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 4: him forty million dollars a year, they didn't want to

721
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 4: give him any any no franchise tags. They got to

722
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 4: give him everything he wanted because he had all that leverage.

723
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 4: And now he's in an even more advantageous spot this

724
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 4: time around. He has all that money to work with.

725
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 4: He has, you know, it doesn't need It's like he

726
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 4: needs life changing money. He already has that from this

727
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 4: last deal. He has the ability to push this all

728
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 4: the way to free agency if he's so inclined. And

729
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,959
Speaker 4: that has the Cowboys trapped, like they can't go out

730
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 4: and sign a bunch of free agents because they don't

731
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 4: know if they're going to need to have that have

732
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 4: sixty million dollars for Dak next year. They haven't been

733
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 4: able to get the CD lambkiel done, they have not

734
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 4: been able to get the Micro Parsons deal done, and

735
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 4: Parsons is eligible for a deal this offseason because they

736
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 4: don't know what they're going to have to do about Dak,

737
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 4: and so that's fundamentally changed their offseason. They have not

738
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 4: been able to go out and sign anybody. Their two

739
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 4: free agent signings this year Ezekiel Elliott, who is by

740
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 4: by running back years, forty nine years old. I think

741
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 4: in the NFL your is hundred thirty, which is sad.

742
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 4: But and they signed Eric Kendrick Say, a veteran linebacker's

743
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 4: been a cap casualty each of the last two seasons.

744
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 4: But he knows Mike Singer's defense, their new defensive coordinator.

745
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 4: So I think they're not sexy because you've seen a

746
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 4: lot of talent leave the organization, very little talent come

747
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,439
Speaker 4: into the organization. And you know, I think Simon's pointing

748
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 4: out the playoff issues are valid. I mean, put it

749
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 4: this way, how many people heading into the NFL season

750
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 4: remember that Dak Prescott was second in MVP balloting last season.

751
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 4: That's how good he was last year, and how much

752
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: of that was washed away by how bad he and

753
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 4: the Cowboys were in the postseason. The only reason I'm

754
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 4: optimistic about the Cowboys this year is that I am

755
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 4: pessimistic about everybody else in the NFC East. But if

756
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 4: the Eagles are better than I think, I'm very skeptical

757
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 4: of the Eagles. I would not think that there's any

758
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 4: reason to back the Cowboys because they're the opposite of

759
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 4: a sexy pick, Like they're the pick that you you

760
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 4: keep around because you're used to what they look like

761
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 4: and you don't have to worry about dressing up and

762
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 4: putting on airs for them.

763
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it did feel like the Cowboys last year. A

764
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:14,240
Speaker 1: lot of it was not smoking mirrors, but lacking in substance,

765
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: sort of making it happen when the moments weren't the

766
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 1: most important, and Dak lighting it up in a way

767
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: that felt to me superficial. Right, And what we saw

768
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,720
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, I think is what we all expected

769
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: to see. I don't know a single person who wasn't

770
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: betting against the Cowboys and betting the Packers at plus

771
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 1: seven in that in that first round game, it was such.

772
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 3: An plus, like was an up plus. It was like

773
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 3: plus eight or nine at open and I think it

774
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 3: did get down a plus.

775
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 2: It got down to seven.

776
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 5: It was just everyone it was.

777
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: It was ridiculous.

778
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys are so interesting for all these reasons.

779
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 1: They are always going to be talking points. But Jerry Jones,

780
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 1: what kind of messes he created as a GM that

781
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: he gets himself in this situation with Dak.

782
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: They can't improve the team.

783
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: He keeps Mike McCarthy, He kept Jason Garrett forever for

784
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: all his sort of Hall of Fame accolades as a genius,

785
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: as someone who has turned the Cowboys into the most

786
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: powerful and valuable franchise in all the sports. Feels like

787
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 1: the guy kind of doesn't know what he's doing. He's

788
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: putting together a team.

789
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 4: I mean, owners can be stubborn, rich people. They don't

790
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 4: get told no a lot, and so I believe with

791
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 4: Jerry Jones there's an element of like having to fight

792
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 4: him as an organization, right like like in some ways,

793
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 4: the Cowboys are a very modern and progressive organization. They

794
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 4: are a team that drafts really well historically year after year.

795
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 4: They're a team that has heavy investments and analytics. They're

796
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 4: a team that has really produced a lot of young talent.

797
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 4: But at the same time that can not always be

798
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 4: the case if you have a meddlesome shall we say,

799
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 4: owner who wants to make decisions when it comes to football.

800
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 4: And I think about the classic one, the famous argument

801
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 4: between Jerry Jones and his sons and the staff about

802
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 4: whether they should draft Johnny Manziel in the first round

803
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 4: all those years ago, they talked Jerry Jones out of it.

804
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 4: They drafted Zach Martin, who was going to be a

805
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 4: Hall of Fame guard for the Cowboys, who's played there

806
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 4: have been incredible there for a decade. That's kind of

807
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 4: the thing you have to do. And every real NFL

808
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 4: organization pretty much has to have a moment like that

809
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 4: with their owner here and there. Owners, even the most

810
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 4: hands off owners, they find they watch a guy one

811
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 4: time in college, they like him. They see a guy

812
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 4: during the draft and they like him. Like there's plenty

813
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 4: of things. Plenty of times this stuff happens, and being

814
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 4: a good GM is talking your owner out of some

815
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 4: bad decisions. But Jerry Jones is the owner and the GM,

816
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 4: and so he has the not only the clout and

817
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 4: the ability, but also the self confidence after winning all

818
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 4: those Super Bowls early in his run to think that

819
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 4: his decisions are always going to be right. And so

820
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 4: at some point Jerry goes to the organization it says, Okay,

821
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 4: we have to get this DAC deal done. Do whatever

822
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 4: it takes to get it done. The problem, he's done

823
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 4: that too late, and so that is sort of the

824
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 4: conuntry and the cowboys find themselves in is. I think

825
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 4: if the people who are not Jerry Jones in that

826
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 4: front office wanted to get this Dak deal done, they

827
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 4: would have done it two years ago. They would have

828
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 4: done it last year before it got to this point

829
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 4: where they had no leverage, where they could not go

830
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 4: out and improve the roster. And because Jerry Jones sort

831
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 4: of decided that he didn't want to pay back until

832
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 4: the last possible second, because he decided he wanted to

833
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 4: wait for all these other wide receiver contracts to get

834
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 4: done before he gave cd Lamb the contract Cede Lamb once,

835
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 4: it's going to cost them extra money it is. It's

836
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 4: over confidence. It's over confidence and well, you know, I'm

837
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 4: gonna make them wait. It's just not thinking prudently about

838
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 4: the finances of an NFL team and the finances of

839
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 4: building an NFL team. Jerry Jones has all the money.

840
00:41:58,040 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 4: The issue is not paying those guys he could afford

841
00:41:59,960 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 4: to pay them. It's just the reality of wanting to

842
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 4: make certain players on this roster wait until the last

843
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 4: possible second to get a deal done. Whether that's you

844
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 4: brist whether that's confidence. Whether it's fullhardedness or a full hardedness,

845
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 4: I can't say. But it has cost the Cowboys already

846
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 4: cost them on this current dact deal, and it's going

847
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 4: to cost them a a lot more if Dak leaves

848
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 4: in free agency.

849
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 1: One more team I want to ask you about, because

850
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 1: every year every Better knows they want to bet on

851
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers over season win total. It always ends

852
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: up in that eight and a half range. Mike Tomlin

853
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 1: always pulls it out of the bag somehow. Bill Barnwell,

854
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: is this the year where the Steelers finally don't go

855
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: over their season win total?

856
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 4: I hope so, because I'm going to pick them to

857
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 4: be a team that declines this upcoming season. They just

858
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 4: exhaust me because like every year I make this argument

859
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 4: for why they're going to decline, every year, they do

860
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,439
Speaker 4: exactly what I'm saying on the field, and then they

861
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 4: still managed to find a different way to put it off.

862
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 4: Last two years ago, I was like, Okay, like they

863
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 4: got an incredible season out of TJ. Watt. There's no

864
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 4: way he's gonna be that good again if he gets

865
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 4: hurt there in trouble, TJ watckets hurt in like Week two,

866
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 4: I'm like, okay, this is great. I know I don't

867
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 4: want to skinerwack get hurt, but like, okay, I know

868
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 4: what I'm talking about. Steelers are going to struggle. They

869
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 4: don't have Ben Roethlisberger and they still went nine to

870
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: seven in one last year. It was okay. People are

871
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 4: too excited about the offense. You know. Kenny Pickett, I

872
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 4: know people think he's an MVP because I have some

873
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 4: preseason stats. He's not that good. Kem Hayward is in

874
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 4: his thirties. He might not be the same guy. Ken

875
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 4: Heard gets hurt, Kenny Pickett stinks. They still go ten

876
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 4: and seven and they've managed to do something that I

877
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 4: don't understand how it's possible, because, like in theory, guess

878
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 4: you want to be a team that protects the football.

879
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 4: That's a smart way to win games. But it's hard

880
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 4: to do, especially if you don't have an Aaron Rodgers

881
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 4: or a Tom Brady at quarterback. The Steelers managed to

882
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 4: win the turnover battle with Mitchell Trubisky as their quarterback,

883
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 4: with Mason Rudolph as their quarterback, and that's the only

884
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 4: way they've won games. I think they are, like I

885
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 4: think they're literally winless over the last three years. When

886
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 4: they don't have they don't win the turnover battle, but

887
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 4: they're like fifteen and four when they do. And let's say,

888
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,439
Speaker 4: credit is a great coaching, a credit to knowing your

889
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 4: limitations on offense, to having a great defense. But this

890
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 4: team is just not that good. Their schedule is tough.

891
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 4: Tomlin had no ability to win a bunch of his

892
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 4: close games before the last couple of years. Their quarterback situation,

893
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 4: they're starting to cast off from two different organizations. They

894
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 4: got rid of Deontay Johnson for cap reasons. Their offensive

895
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 4: line is just okay. Their defense is old. I think

896
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 4: the oldest in football last year. Have some young sage

897
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 4: pieces and enjoying Porter and counter in Benton. But like this,

898
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 4: if Mike Toma was not coaching this team, they'd have

899
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 4: a six and a half win total. Probably we'd be

900
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 4: I guess. And that is a testament to how good

901
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 4: my Tomlin is, but also just how underwhelming this team

902
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 4: looks at paper. I'm going to if you trust the numbers,

903
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 4: it's got to be right. Before the Packers defied me

904
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 4: for a couple of years with the Aaron Rodgers era,

905
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 4: they finally went my way. Tennessee under Mike Vrabel for

906
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 4: a couple of years, just just absolutely breaking my brain.

907
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 4: Eventually they had that losing streak in the second half

908
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 4: of twenty two, they got right. I feel like the

909
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 4: Steelers can't pull this off, but they keep proving me wrong.

910
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 4: So I'm getting really frustrated about this entire Look.

911
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 1: We last week, we had Nick Giffen and Sean Kerner

912
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 1: on the podcast, and they will establish the Luck Rankings,

913
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:41,280
Speaker 1: which is this brilliant methodology and formula that basically baselines

914
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: luck out of the equation and tells you what teams

915
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 1: should have done in a game and what they did

916
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: because of the luck factors in the game. And we

917
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 1: were talking about the Steelers, and all we did last

918
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 1: year was talking about how anemic their offense is and

919
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: how terrible their offenses. The Steelers also had more explosive

920
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 1: plays than anybody else in football, and so that's why

921
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 1: they were getting to those wins. But the problem is

922
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 1: that's what happens for them every single year.

923
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 2: Simon.

924
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: Every year, the Steelers will have that freakish explosive play,

925
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: that freakish interception return for a touchdown, that freakish force

926
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: fumble in the three straight games that TJ wat plays

927
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: between his bicep injury and his hamstring injury, Like it

928
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: just freaking happens, Yes or no, Simon, Are you over

929
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,240
Speaker 1: the Steelers? Are you under the Steelers and their win total?

930
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 3: I am finally after I think I talked about a

931
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 3: good ten year run of always take on the Rover.

932
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 4: I am finally on the under this year. And it's

933
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:46,879
Speaker 4: what Bill just talked about.

934
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: I think last year that had an incredible amount of

935
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 3: luck about the quarterbacks that got injured in the division

936
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 3: when they played those certain teams. This year, it doesn't

937
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 3: feel that way right. Their division is even harder this year,

938
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 3: and their their schedule is brutal. If you go through

939
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 3: a look at their skins, it's just a brutal line

940
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 3: up and just the way that the schedule plays out

941
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 3: for them, it's brutal. So finally chat on Under on

942
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 3: a Tomlin team for the first time in my professional career.

943
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 2: We have consensus.

944
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Speaker 1: Simon and I return with our next episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, eleven am

960
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Speaker 1: Eastern to talk NFL, look rankings, Download us on Spotify,

961
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,240
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