WEBVTT - MLB Post Break Futures Update (Ep. 94) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:02.640 It's time to place your bets right coming down, let's 0:00:02.680 --> 0:00:07.200 talk to the pros one. Welcome to everybody to betting pros. 0:00:07.240 --> 0:00:09.320 It's me Joey p Joe Pizza for you. We got 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:12.680 a great show for you today as always. Yes, we're 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.720 past the halfway part of the Major League Baseball season. Yes, 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:17.800 so the home run Derby is in the rear view, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:19.960 so is the All Star Game. But there have been 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.520 a lot of injuries to talk about here that really 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.479 are going to affect not only futures of players, but 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.280 futures of teams. And there's nobody better to get the 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.880 inside information than a real Major League Baseball insider. He 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.159 is my former co host of Fantasy Sports Today and 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.320 the current co host there at Sports Grid as well. 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.360 And not only that, he also covers the Marlins everything 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.960 going on with them. He's the one, the only Craig Mish. 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:44.560 Mish Welcome to the show, my friend. It's been too 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:47.040 long and here we are talking little baseball today. It's 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:47.840 good to see your face. 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:49.839 It is great to see you, Joe. Hope you and 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:51.519 your family are well. Thanks for the invitation. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:53.680 By the way, Yeah, well you know we're gonna be 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:56.120 doing some Football and Sports Grid together every Sunday, and 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:58.720 I figured, you know what, I haven't talked to Miss 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:01.800 in a few weeks here months. Maybe it's time to 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:04.800 make sure we dust off the old brand, which is 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.520 Joey P and Craignish, which you can't kill. I mean, 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.720 really share man, it is. It is stunning. You know, 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:12.360 we're coming up on a decade. I don't know what 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:14.800 you're gonna get me for the ten year anniversary. 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.640 But I know the nice you know, it's funny. It's 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:18.760 funny that you bring that up because we were talking 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:21.560 about you the other day on the show. We were 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.640 on the air and something came up. I think it 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:25.480 was Space Jam. I want to say, I don't know 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:27.560 what it was, but I said, if Joe Piece of 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.840 P was on this show, this is what he would 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:32.880 say about Space Jam. I'm not gonna watch it now, 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:36.440 but I promise you eventually I will. It may not 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.119 be today, it may not be tomorrow, but I guarantee 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.720 you eventually, and then and then I and I will 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:44.200 ask Joe about this weekly. He still will not watch it, 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:46.760 he does not have the time, but eventually he will 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.080 and he will give a fair review on it at 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:49.600 his pace. 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:51.880 Well, I got a show for you when baseball is 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:53.960 over and you get some more time. We're not traveling 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:57.120 anymore or do anything. The Boys. Have you watched The Boys? 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:02.040 I don't know, Amazon Prime. Let the Superheroes are kind 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.600 of the bad guys. So The Heroes is like the 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:07.480 anti hero kind of thing going on. It is amazing. 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:10.520 It is one of the most clever, dark, funny shows 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.399 I've ever seen, turns all that superhero stuff on its 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:16.480 ear and it is really well acted. So there you go. 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.080 So you got a little shows, you get that, you 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.320 get a little everything here. But let's talk here with 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:22.840 Craig Mitch because the Jacob de Gram injury in the 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:25.560 National League has really changed the dynamic of what's going 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.000 on all of a sudden. Now the MVP odds have 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.560 come down from all the places here over I'm betting 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:33.600 pros and you can't wager on that, can't wager on 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:37.080 this young right now. And I'm curious to ask you this, Craig, 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.399 because you have the Acunya injury just a few weeks 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:42.800 ago to which changed the dynamic of that race. Tatist 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:44.720 kind of was the guy that I thought people should 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:47.079 be on, but now it's just Jacob de gram injury. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.519 If da Grom comes back healthy, what do you think 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:52.200 that line's going to look like in anticipation? Is this 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.880 the last time also to get in and tatus or 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:56.919 maybe is there a third guy like Juan Sota who's 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.720 getting red hot, who could finish and maybe carry the 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:02.919 now single handedly to the playoffs. What's your thoughts about 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:05.200 the National League right now? MVP race the way. 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.920 It stands, Yeah, look, I mean at this point you 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.440 can make a case for a lot of different players 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.760 for the MVP. It was interesting that two weeks ago, 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:14.360 if you would have asked this question, you would have 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:16.720 said the Grama's got the cy Young and the MVP 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.600 locked up. I still think he's got a great shot 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.720 at the Cy Young Award, especially if he only misses 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:23.920 two or three starts. But I think that as you 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:25.520 look around the league and you look at some of 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:28.400 the teams in the National League, it's unfortunate, but no 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.120 one really sticks out. Milwaukee has kind of had a 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.079 great pitching season, but their hitting has sort of been 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.360 ah so far. You can't throw Christian Yelich into that category, 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.520 and certainly they've gotten enough done to be where there are, 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.320 but I don't see an MVP on that team. The 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:47.000 Los Angeles Dodgers, Joe are just so well rounded that 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.360 you could name five or six guys on that club 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:52.040 and say, hey, I mean they have MVP type numbers. 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.720 But with that takeaway from the others. So of course 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.560 you mentioned the key name, and that is Fernando Tattis, 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.560 junior on the San Diego Padres, and I think that, look, 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.080 you still have an opportunity, whatever his odds are at 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.280 this point, whenever they get reposted, to take advantage of that. 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.400 The Giants, I mean, look, Buster Posey, by the way, 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:11.640 is making the case for an MVP season. I mean, 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:13.800 he's not gonna win, probably, but my gosh, this guy 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:15.440 just was on the injured list. He comes right back, 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:17.680 hits a home run in his first game back. The 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:20.520 Giants are having a great season as well. You mentioned 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:24.200 Sodo the Nationals first half MVP to stay in. It 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.880 was Schwarber. It was not Sodo. So I'm curious when 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.120 Schwarber comes back next week or the week after, how 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.520 that will affect Soda. Will it make him better? Will 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.960 it put more light on Schwarber at this point? But look, 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.479 you can make the case that if Sodo goes on 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.440 in absolute tear, he potentially could win it. Put Joe, 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.440 I don't see the Nationals winning the division, and usually 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:48.760 they try to give the MVP to a player that's 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.240 on a winning team. Mike Trout may have something else 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:54.000 to say about that over the last decade, but I 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.240 think in this case, Tatis is the name that you mentioned, 0:04:57.320 --> 0:04:59.880 and it would really seem to me that if they 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.159 make the postseason that he would be the favorite. 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:04.600 And he's got the narrative to playing through the season 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:07.120 with that shoulder injury too. He also had a COVID 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.000 test earlier in the year to miss some time there. 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:11.560 So I think he's just had a brilliant season. To me, 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:13.840 that was the guy you know when you look at 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.400 the MV. Excuse me the Cy Young race though, now too, 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:19.159 with Jacob de Gram on pause, is it time to 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.080 start after now? This is not the first time, the 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:22.800 second time, this is the third time Jacob de Grom 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:25.600 has experienced some issues here with different parts of the 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.320 arm right, is it time to start kicking the tires 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.320 on Brandon Woodruff or Corbyn Burns or maybe even a 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.479 Kevin Gosman we mentioned the Giants and Buster Post, and 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:35.560 we kind of forget about the Giants quite a bit. 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.240 I know this past week wasn't the best start for 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.800 Kevin Gosman that he's had this year, but still Gossman's 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:43.960 been spectacular from a number standpoint. Is it worth throwing 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:45.599 any long shot money in any of those guys? 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.240 Yeah, I mean, look, they shouldn't really be long shots 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.080 honestly at this point. Burns was the one that I 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.839 liked going into the season, and then unfortunately he had 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:54.960 the COVID at the at the beginning of the season 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:57.159 that kind of shut him down. He and Burns have 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:00.440 really close numbers in terms of their stats the course 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:02.240 of the season, so it could be either of those 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:04.720 guys going on a run. That's how Jake Arietta won 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.279 the Cy Young Award a couple of years ago. His 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.960 first half was okay, his second half was unbelievable and 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.240 he just pushed his way all the way to the 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:16.520 Cy Young. But yes, Kevin Gossman, unfortunately for me, that 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.680 is the name of the guy that has has had 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:22.440 a fantastic season. He plays on a really good team. 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.520 He could potentially carry them to the best record in 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:29.040 the entire Major League Baseball. So yeah, Joe, I definitely 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:34.160 think that's him a very deep dart throw at this point, 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:38.520 if you have a player that saves forty games at 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.200 a forty tries in his first forty tries, I think 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.400 you at least have to have him in the conversation 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:46.880 in Alex Reyes. I don't think he's gonna win the 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.880 Cy Young Award, But you're talking about somebody that is 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.080 on pace to do, somebody something that no one else 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:53.920 has in the history of baseball, which is from your 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.600 first save to the end, not blow one. And I 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.679 just at least want to mention that because if things 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:01.560 go and a couple of the other names that you 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.440 mentioned go down, maybe that's part of the conversation. But 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:06.360 I don't see him winning a deep dark throw there. 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.440 All right, let's talk about the American League here for 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:10.600 a second and show Hey, Tani, you know, I gotta 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:13.040 tell you I learned from my good pal Craig Mish 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.720 from doing show after show with him. He said, just 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.200 get the guy you want before you think it's gonna 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:20.400 get away from you, and don't go betting a million things. 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.360 Just go find the thing that you think you believe 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:24.640 in and then watch it and then get in before 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:26.080 you think it's going to get away. And I did. 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:27.840 I got in on show hal Tan and be very 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.920 proud of me. But nice fat bet there at six 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:34.680 point fifty for the MVP odds now he is at 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:37.600 minus three sixty and the plus side of that, so 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.840 that is way gone. Yeah, here's my question to you, 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.440 is this it's over? We all think it's over. If 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.480 there's a scenario where shoe Aotani, let's say, injury did 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.120 happen like all of a sudden, we have injury to 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.280 Ronald Cooney and all of a sudden that changes the dynamic. 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.200 Has Otani already done enough that it doesn't matter? But 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.720 or is Vlad's possibility of winning a triple crown? Does 0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:58.280 that really kind of match up at all? I keep saying, no, 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:00.640 it doesn't matter because Otani's already built up so much 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:02.880 equity with the pitching side. Do you think that Vlad 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:05.679 can do anything to get this award back on his side? 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.480 Well, I mean, let's be fair. If Otani decided to 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.040 leave the United States today and go back to Japan 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:14.720 and never play again, he would not win the MVP 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:17.440 somebody else would win it, But that's the kind of 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.560 extraordinary circumstance that I think that it would require. I 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:23.160 would say, I'm looking at the calendar the twentieth of July. 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:26.600 I think if Otani just makes two more weeks or 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:28.880 three more weeks, I don't think it'll matter, but not 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:33.000 quite yet because vladd is having an unbelievable season, but 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:37.240 a triple crown or not Otani that was the right call. 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:39.240 I think you and I talked about betting Otani last 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.760 year before the season. Winning the MVP is just it 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.080 had to happen at some point, even if he was 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.440 just decent, they had to give him the MVP. I 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:49.440 think the bigger story, Joe is that for the next 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:54.040 ten years, if Shohei Otani is just does eighty percent 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.800 of what he's doing now, not great, but just good, 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.480 how do they not give him the MVP? Like this 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:02.959 is what they're setting themselves up for for the next decade. 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.880 So it's gonna be really interesting moving forward because somebody 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.559 could have an unbelievable year and Otani just kind of 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.400 does what he does, and then what are you just 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:12.160 not going to give him the MVP the next year? 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:15.080 So fascinating moving forward. But you got Otani this year 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:15.440 for sure. 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.080 Yeah, And of course the regret is not getting it 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:20.120 at twenty to one. But I think part of it 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:21.840 is when you look at those numbers in the preseason, 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.160 you like things and you go, yeah, but he's gotta 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:26.120 hit a certain number of innings first, Like it's got 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:27.640 to get to a point where you start to believe 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:29.599 the narrative of the two way player, that it's not 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:31.839 a gimmick, that it's a reality. And I feel like 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:33.560 we got to a point where it's actually the reality 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:35.520 with Otani, and then you started to see it go 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.480 from twenty to fifteen to ten, and it kept going 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:39.040 and going, and I said, all right, I can't wait 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.040 anymore for this. But it stinks for Vlad because Vlats 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.440 is having a transcendent breakout year that we've all been 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.640 waiting for. The race that's kind of close in the 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.640 American League, though, is not the MVP. It's the Saw 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:52.440 Young Because you got lanceln at plus four hundred on 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.360 betting pros that's a consensus number. You got carls renon 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.200 plus two hundred, and of course Garrett Cole at the 0:09:57.200 --> 0:09:59.640 top at minus one thirty four, he is still the 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.720 prohibit favorite, and with the Yankee struggles, do you think 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.240 he should still be the prohibitive favorite. I know, Rodonn's 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:07.160 kind of came out of nowhere and that's been a 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.720 great story. And maybe if it weren't for Trey Mancini, 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:11.720 maybe Comeback Player of the Year would be his award. 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.040 But I think that one might be locked up for Trey. 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:16.360 But what about Lance Linn. I keep kind of pounding 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:17.800 the table for this guy because I feel like he 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:19.920 doesn't get a lot of respect. The White Sox just 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:23.480 extended him two more years. Do you see any value 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.880 there putting plus four hundred over on lanceln for the 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:28.079 sy in in the American League? 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.280 Yeah, not really, not really. I think he profiles as 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:36.120 a very good pitcher that it probably does not get 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:37.839 the respect that he deserves because he's one of the 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:39.920 few guys that gets very deep into the games. But 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.120 Rodonna has the No hitter behind him, and I think 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:44.920 that if it came down to those two, I think 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.559 Rodnan would end up winning the cy Young. Look, We're 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:49.280 gonna have to see what happens with Garrett Cole. It 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.040 was a rocky first couple of starts after the non 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.160 sticky stuff, but then even in the rain, he pitched 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.800 really well last time out. So my guess is that 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.400 it's gonna be between Cole and Rodin. And of course 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:01.840 we still have seventy games to play, so anybody could 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:04.200 jump into the mix at this point. But those are 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:05.880 the names. I think that you nailed all the names 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:07.080 that are possible. 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:09.000 Now with those seventy games left to play, Let's talk 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.120 a little bit of win totals here. Let's start with 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.000 those Yankees where at ninety five and a half minus 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.120 won twelve on the under on the over minus one ten. 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:20.760 Your feelings on the Yankees right now and that number 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.320 ninety five and a half, I know you know that 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:26.520 injury to Tyra Glass now really change the dynamic. What 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:29.240 the Rays look like without that true ace every fifth day. 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.680 I think they're a very different team. Boston's played very well, 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:35.480 the Toronto Blue Jays like they are going to be 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:38.080 an up and coming team here in these last seventy 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:41.240 games to deal with and contend with. And let's be honest, 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.240 I mean, the Yankees have not played up to their abilities. 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:44.760 So when you're looking at this team right now, do 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.800 you think ninety five and a half. They are going 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.880 to come close to that number this year, And do 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.480 they have a run in them the way they're currently constituted. 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.000 Yeah, I don't think that they'll hit the ninety five. 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.439 But the other part of this, too is that the 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.760 better conversation is to do this on August first, because 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.240 you just don't know which direction the Yankees are going 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.840 to go and what they would add and how much 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:10.199 that could add to what they have. So on paper, no, 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.319 I don't think that they I don't think they win 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:17.560 ninety games right now. But truthfully, Joe, the market is 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:19.840 not going to dictate the outcome of this until the 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.440 trade deadline comes and goes on the thirtieth. We really 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:25.120 didn't have a genuine trade deadline last year. We played 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.160 thirty days of baseball a trade deadline, and then go 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.559 and run toward the rest of the season. This is 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:32.200 going to be very different this year. Other thing that 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.800 I would say is, unlike previous years, you're in a 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.360 better position to know which teams are going to get 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.520 better from both a reality and wagering standpoint than you 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.880 ever have, Joe. We can actually identify the teams that 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:48.000 are out this year, it's pretty easy to do. Usually 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.920 everyone complains we don't know who's in and who's out. 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:52.840 I think you do. I mean, you know who the 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.400 teams of the National League pretty much are. The three 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.160 teams of the National League West are going to get in. 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.400 Cincinnati has fallen back, you could throw a dart them, 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.360 but Milwaukee's the Central winner. And then look, the East 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:05.280 is definitely a wreck and that's up for grabs. But 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:07.720 you pretty much know everyone in the NL. You know 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:11.000 the Astros are in in the AL. Boston would have 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:15.120 to completely fall flat. I mean, you probably know that 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:16.840 the good teams are gonna get better and the bad 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:17.920 teams are gonna get worse. 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.280 So where the Yankees are a buyer or seller? 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.440 You think they always are buyers. They're never seller, So 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.760 they'll buy something. I just don't know how far they'll go. 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.360 All right, let's talk about the Astros since you mentioned 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:30.280 them to eighty seven and a half. Is that number 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.160 here minus one eighteen on the over, minus one ten 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.480 on the under on consensus line at betting pros. So 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.280 do you think with this Astros team lately? You've seen 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.959 Lance mccullor's pitch very well. Garcia They've gotten a lot 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:43.880 for Amber Valdez came back and was a house on 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:45.679 fire and then kind of cooled off recently, maybe a 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:47.439 little dead arm. I'm not sure what's going on there, 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.240 but look, this team scores a ton of runs and 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:50.600 they have a lot of depth. When they have guys 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.079 like Christian Javier, they could throw in there if they 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.560 have to into a rotation spot. Do you think the 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.640 Astros run away with this division? You think eighty seven 0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:58.920 and a half is going to be their thing? Or 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:00.000 do you think the A's are going to stay there 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:01.360 all the way to the bitter end? With them? 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.200 I think Houston will be a team that adds at 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.240 the deadline, and I think that they are well positioned 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:09.880 to even win the American League Pennant. So if I 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.600 had to go one way or the other on them, 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.480 it would be over the eighty seven. Remember, they're going 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:16.920 to get a lot of games against Texas down the stretch. 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.320 That's going to be pretty easy for them. The Rangers 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.920 have looked horrible virtually from the start of the season, 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:26.120 So Houston, some people feel like they have overachieved. I 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.320 really don't think so. I feel like the talent has 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.200 always been there. They just haven't all put it together 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:33.320 since they won that World Series a couple of years ago. 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.080 But it seems like the mental stuff is gone. They're 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.000 going to get Alex Pregman back, They're gonna get Carlos 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.400 Korea back. You mentioned the pitching. They're probably another starter 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:45.440 away from getting over the top. But look, I mean, 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:48.640 they're saying that Justin Verlander is not going to pitch 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:53.160 this season. They're saying that, but talk to me on 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.640 September first to see if that is really the case. 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:57.720 And by the way, we haven't heard anything from him 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:58.800 in a lot of PEP. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:00.640 I was gonna ask, you know, we've really you haven't heard, 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.760 and usually there's some kind of well he's he's doing 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.120 baseball activities, which I'm not even sure at this point 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.160 what that is. I'm sure you can actually answer that 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:10.600 question what baseball activities really mean. I don't know if 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.040 that means like you're just playing RBI baseball Nintendo. I 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:14.920 don't know if you just like trading baseball cars. But 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:17.920 baseball activities, that's what we've got. Let's talk about the 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:19.520 West of the National League, because you said three teams 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.200 are gonna come out into the playoffs from there, ninety 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.200 four and a half is the number for the Padres 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.480 minus one twelve on the over, minus one ten on 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.880 the under. For the Dodgers. That number is one oh 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:32.640 two and a half, and that is minus one to 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:34.680 eighteen minus one ten, so one oh two and a 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:37.360 half for the Dodgers. For the Padres side, you got 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.200 ninety four and a half. Any feelings one way or 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.320 another about these two teams because the Dodgers clearly right 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.800 now with the Bower issues going on with playt Kershaw's injury, 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.920 we have Gavin Luck sitting the DL, and obviously we 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:53.360 still have some questions regarding Mookie Bett's health too, which 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.000 is not great. Bellinger has been terrible. Some no wonder 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.120 a little bit. I know they keep winning games, but 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:00.240 a little concerned with the Dodgers and the Padres feel 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:03.160 like the opposite, even though they've had their hurdles. It 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:04.920 feels to me like the Padres, you and I have 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.320 said it, they're all in. They've got the goods in 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.040 the minor league system to make a huge acquisition, be 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.920 at a Barrios, be it a big time pitcher like that, 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.440 maybe you could bring in and really change the dynamic 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.280 of this rotation. Do you think ninety four and a 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.000 half and the total for the Dodgers world two and 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.720 a half is within their reach there? Do you like 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:24.760 the over under if you had a lean on either. 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.640 Yeah, Well, with the Dodgers, it's the kind of thing 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.280 where I still go back to the beginning of the 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.680 season when I see a total of one hundred or over. 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.200 There's just so much variance, Joe. In the last two 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:36.360 weeks of the season. The Dodgers clearly are not playing 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.760 for September. They're playing to win at all. We don't 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.480 know how injured Clayton Kershaw is, Joe. There's a chance 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.040 if they needed him the pitch, could he tomorrow maybe? 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:46.760 But do they need him right now? 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:46.880 No? 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.280 And they've shown a propensity to just throw their guys 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:51.080 on the injured list and let them sit for weeks. 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.480 Bellinger has been out, Speaker's been out, Bets has been out, 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.080 They've all been out, and they simply don't care. They 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.680 just need to get themselves into a position at the 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.360 end of September to fight with the Padres and fight 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.840 with the Giants. So no real lean for me on 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.200 the Dodgers, because I could honestly see them with ninety 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.119