1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you at the grocery store 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Shares a 7 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 1: Ford Motor down a little bit more than one per 8 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: cent today, let's find out more about Ford's results. We've 9 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: got Bob Shanks. He is the chief financial officer of 10 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: Ford Motor Company. Bob Shanks, thank you very much for 11 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: being with us. Thank you. It's great to be with 12 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:45,639 Speaker 1: you once again. All right, so where do you want 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: to Where do you want to begin? Because I was 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: going to go to the F one fifty and go 15 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: into some detail there, but maybe you want to just 16 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: give us an overview because stocks lower, I mean, you know, 17 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: the headline speaks for itself, profit down. What's going on? Well, 18 00:00:57,840 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: it's uh. For the first thing, I guess I would 19 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: say keim that everything is in line with our expectations. 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: In fact, we came in at a billion flour in 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: terms of adjusted pretext profit for the company. That was 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: a bit better than what we had guided to, but 23 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: it's surround things that we expect to just be calndarization 24 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: or timing things that will offset in the fourth quarter. 25 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: So very much in line with expectations. I think the 26 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: markets responding sort of consistent with that. UH One one 27 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: thing of note for it has been spending big time 28 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: on its aluminum bodied superduty pick up. This is an 29 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: effort to compete with Uber and Google um to transform 30 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 1: Forward into more of a mobility company. Do you have 31 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: any insights about whether this big investment is starting to 32 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: pay off. Well, we're just in the process of launching 33 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: the Super Duty. We did make a similar investment on 34 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: the F one fifty a year year and a half 35 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: ago and that's paid off beautifully. So the super Duty 36 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: is following, and actually next year are large utilities, the 37 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: Expedition and the Navigator. UH those will also go aluminum. 38 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: So it makes a lot of sense because consumers get 39 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: the benefit of a lighter vehicle but much better performance. 40 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: That's certainly been the case with the F one fifty. 41 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: I'm sure it's going to be what we see with 42 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: the Super Duty as it continues to go to market, 43 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about inventory levels, because you know, 44 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: we've heard that you've really cut back, right, halting one 45 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: of the two plants that builds the F one fifty. Well, 46 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: everything that we're doing is consistent with, you know, our 47 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: longstanding practice of matching productions to demand. We said throughout 48 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: the course of the first half the year that we 49 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: would be adjusting our stocks as a year progress, and 50 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: that's exactly what we're doing. PIM. We haven't actually shut 51 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: any of our FEIF plants, but next week, for example, 52 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: we have three crews that build in Kansas City, and 53 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 1: one of those crews won't be operating so that we 54 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: can make sure that our production stays in line to demand. 55 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: Our our stock levels are are fine and where we 56 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: want them. But these plants run three crews constantly, so 57 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: sometimes we just have to make tweaks or adjustments to 58 00:02:58,120 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: make sure o'mventry stay where we want them to be. 59 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: Got it. But But having said having said that, and 60 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: I'm sure you're scratching your head just as much as 61 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: everybody else is. But you know the Mustang factory right 62 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: that was idle because of a decline in sales. You 63 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,399 Speaker 1: have the Louisville plant also, you know, I mean you're 64 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: doing what you need to do obviously, but what how 65 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 1: do you read into the industry or into the environment 66 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: that's making these kinds of things happen. Well, that's a 67 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: good question. I Mean, what we've been saying since at 68 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: least the second quarter earnest called so three months ago, 69 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: is that we're starting to see a bit of a 70 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: softening in the industry here in the US, and that's 71 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: on the retail side as well as uh. We saw 72 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: in the third quarter a bit on the fleet side 73 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: as well. So still very strong levels, but slightly less 74 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: than what we had seen in our case. The other 75 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: thing that we talked about the very beginning of the 76 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: years that we were going to have a an upfront 77 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: counterization of our rental vehicles that we sell to the 78 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: rental fleets, and that was based on their request and 79 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: that would be sort of, if you will, paid back 80 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: in terms of uh the second half the year. So 81 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: that's that's a factor. Is that What does that mean? 82 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: Maybe just define that for people. Sure, So we sell 83 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: we sell to individual customers, we also sell to fleets, 84 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: commercial governments both federal and state, but also the rental 85 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: car companies. UH. We sold about two hundred and eighty 86 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: thousand units to fleet or to to rental last year. 87 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: We'll do the same this year. Normally that calendarization is 88 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: UH is timed more towards the second half in the 89 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: first half, But in this particular year, UH, the rental 90 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: companies asked us to provide them with our units earlier 91 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 1: in the year, which we did. So Therefore, in the 92 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: year of a year basis, you know, we don't have 93 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: those units that we're providing in the second half, and 94 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 1: so that's one of the factors that's affecting some of 95 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: the adjustments that we're making, particularly on the car side 96 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: of the business. One concern that I've heard from a 97 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: lot of people who speak to is that you have 98 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 1: auto loans which are poised to top one trillion dollars 99 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: are already have topped one trillion dollars the first time 100 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,799 Speaker 1: ever UH this year, and you're starting to see some firms, 101 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: including JP Morgan UH pull back raise the borrowing US 102 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: enters as the values of the underlying cars deteriorate. How 103 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: concerned are you that a tightening of credit conditions in 104 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: the auto lending sector could further weaken profitability afford Well, 105 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: a lot of that's a good question, and I saw 106 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: that article this morning as well. But you have to 107 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: remember we have our own captive finance company, Ford Credit, 108 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: which finances both our wholesales and a very high percentage 109 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: of our sales to individual customers. And we have you know, 110 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: we follow consistent policies in terms of loan standards, origination 111 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: and so forth. The risk profile of our business is 112 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: very constant. We do that whether we're in a down 113 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: cycle or an up cycle. So I think what you're 114 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: talking about more as a phenomenon that probably is going 115 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: to affect banks and credit unions. Uh, you know, we're 116 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: continuing to follow the same policies that we have been. 117 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: What we have seen is a decline in auction values 118 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: for vehicles coming off lease, and that's something that we 119 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: talked about today in our earnings call. Right well, so 120 00:05:58,600 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: that that was sort of what I was going to 121 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: pick up on. You have the resale values going down 122 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: as people are buying more new cars and are not 123 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: looking to sort of buy the older ones. This creates 124 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: a problem for loans that are like sixty eight months long, etcetera. 125 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: Because you have very little value left. Does this affect 126 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: your business at all? And if so, how well, it's 127 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: actually not Normally I'll call it vehicles that are financed 128 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 1: through a pr that type of thing. What it really is, 129 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: it's around the lease vehicles. So the industry has been 130 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: leasing more and more vehicles over the last number of 131 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: years and an increasing or or rising industry. Those vehicles 132 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: are usually leased for two years or three years, and 133 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: so you have more and more of those vehicles coming back. 134 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: So it's it's really a supply and demand factor that's 135 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: taking place, So it's more of those units come back. 136 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: It just suppresses the value of auction values for those 137 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: off lease vehicles, and that's the phenomenon that we're seeing. 138 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: It can have an impact in terms of UH the 139 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: ability to get the prices that you want for for 140 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: new vehicles. It can also affect the volume of new 141 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: vehicles because US people have more choices if you will 142 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: have nearly new vehicles as those vehicles come back. So 143 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: that's something that we're watching, and certainly in our Ford 144 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: credit business, it was an effect that that we've seen 145 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: throughout the course of this year as residual values have fallen. 146 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: But it's against something we have forecasting and built into 147 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: our outlook going forward. Bob Shanks, just quickly, I know 148 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: that you joined Ford Motor in nineteen seventy seven. That's amazing. Well, 149 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: I thought I was gonna tell people I was only 150 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: thirty five years old. Now I can't do that. Well, 151 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: you know, you were a child prodigy. The reason the 152 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: reason I bring that up is because I'm just wanting 153 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: to maybe in ten fifteen seconds, tell us what is 154 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: the market feel like to you today? It feels like 155 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: we're in a maturing part of the of the cycle, 156 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: particularly in our industry. We can see that with softening 157 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: industry sales. We see that with the credit cycle. You 158 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: know the discussion we were just having around auction values. 159 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: So still a healthy part of the cycle, but it's 160 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: a maturing part of the cycle. Thank you so much, 161 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: Bob Shanks, chief financial Officer, Afford Motor Company, on what's 162 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: ahead for that company. They had largely expected to see 163 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: UH profits decline as they invest heavily in their new 164 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: fleet of super aluminum super duper trucks. Thank you so 165 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: much for being with us. And right now, what what 166 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: are the shares doing right now? Down about one and 167 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. I want to bring in Laura Keller 168 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg News, who covers the banking industry, as well 169 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 1: as Barrington pitt Miller equity analyst and your market expert 170 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: at Janice Capital. Laura, I want to kick it off 171 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: with you. Uh, Deutsche Bank released earnings today better than expected. 172 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: Its shares go nowhere? What's going on? Yeah? I saw 173 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: that too. UM. I mean when you look though into 174 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: the results and you don't just look at that you know, 175 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: surprise profit. When you dig into some of the things, 176 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know that you can see a 177 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: sustainability UM and some of those numbers, like, for example, 178 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: if you look at the the fixed income results, great good, 179 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: but still the bottom of the pack for peers, bottom 180 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 1: of the pack for advisory. So that's all the investment 181 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: banking side of things. And then I think to a 182 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: lot of UM analysts were not so happy with not 183 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: any more information on where we stand with the litigation 184 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: and the R and B S settlement negotiations. I mean, 185 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:30,719 Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank get self the saying, look, we can't really 186 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: provide you those kinds of things because it actually undermines 187 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: our strategy and negotiation Barrington. So after you saw these results, 188 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: did you go to your PMS and say, all right, 189 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: go ahead, you can buy. Unfortunately, not okay. The reality 190 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: is that the outstanding d o J settlement is the 191 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: big question mark on Deutsche Bank today, And until we 192 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: know therefore what the settlement is, we don't know what 193 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: the share account is, and we don know whether indeed 194 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: this is a bank that's going to face a serious 195 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: capital challenge at a time when it's potentially market cap 196 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: is falling to levels which will make it potentially very 197 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: difficult to refill the whole. It will then lead to 198 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: serious question marks about therefore, okay, then what does the 199 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: shape of the business look like? You can't maybe raise 200 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: enough in the market, so you'll be forced into and 201 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: indeed John grinds that he doesn't want to raise. You 202 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 1: may be forced into strategic decisions such as selling the 203 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: asset management business, which absolutely would address a capital hole, 204 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: but it brings with it aps dilution um. The options 205 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: that Deutsche Bank faces here without knowing the d o 206 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 1: J settlement are too far too broad for John cry 207 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: and the CEO and the management team to really give 208 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 1: the market additional strategic ideas initiatives, because, as I say, 209 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: until you know that number, you don't know whether your 210 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: option is to simply cut the bonus ball or is 211 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: it to sell asset management, is it to try and 212 00:10:58,600 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: raise a bit of capital, is it trying to cap 213 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: the nation of all of the above. So I think 214 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 1: for that reason, hey, we didn't get anything new. I'm 215 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: not surprised we didn't get anything new. The only way 216 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: we would have got a material change and update would 217 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: have been if we had the settlement number. Is there 218 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: any bad news that you can't think of about Deutsche 219 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: Bank right now? I mean, is there anything else out 220 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: there that is bad that might come to the four 221 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: I mean, let's say they do get that. Let's say 222 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 1: they do they are tagged with the fourteen billions from 223 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: the Department of Justice. Let's say they do sell assets, 224 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: they do cut bonuses, they cut staff. Is Deutsche Bank 225 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: is still going to be around let's say in twelve months, 226 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: twenty four months. I think it's highly likely that the 227 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: German state would be forced in a serious crisis to 228 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: step in and provide assurance. Okay, so that's like worst 229 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: case scenario. That is worse. I think that is worst 230 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: case scenario. So curiously, there maybe a number of Europeans 231 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: out there who would be quite excited about that because 232 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: it might take the pressure off them. They might finally 233 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: able to do the same for themselves in Italy. But 234 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: the reason I was going there is because at fourteen 235 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: and a half dollars a share, is Deutsche Bank, you know, 236 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: a buy right now? I mean, is this a start 237 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 1: that you know, there's a lot of bad news out there, 238 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: and you go back, you say, I want to buy 239 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: when there's a lot of bad news if the thing 240 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: is gonna survive, or maybe even someone going to buy 241 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: part of the franchise, right, is it a bottom? Is 242 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: it aboutom here? Or doesn't have to be a bottom, 243 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: It just has to be, you know, decent, not if 244 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: it's a fourteen billion dollar fine, okay, and if you 245 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: then layer on Russian sanctions on top. The market is 246 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: pragmatically saying that is an unrealistic number because it's the 247 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: fourth largest global city bank, it's one of the largest 248 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: capital market counterparties in the world, and particularly US financial institutions. 249 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: Surely the d o J isn't going to undermine all 250 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: the recovery and the financial institutions and potentially threatened the counterparties. 251 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: I think that is um. I think that's the market's 252 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: pragmatic position, and therefore the consensus number is something in 253 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: the ballpark of five to seven billion, So that would 254 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 1: make the start attractive at fourteen and a half and 255 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: that kind of settlement, I think that takes a lot 256 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: of the risk away. And it doesn't. It doesn't mean 257 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: to say that this is, you know, a compelling business mix, 258 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 1: but absolutely it takes away the tail risk, and it's 259 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: that tail risk that I think holds back a lot 260 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: of investors today. Did we get a sense from their 261 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: earnings about how much of their business, their investment banking 262 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: business in particular, has disappeared amid the cloud of uncertainty 263 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: UM They reported debt treating debton currency trading revenue there 264 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: was up the third quarter, but that's versus of an 265 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: increase in debt treading from the five biggest US banks. 266 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: I think it's certainly. On the call, we got the 267 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: impression that they're clearly was business that was taken away 268 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: from them and some of that is returning. It is undeniable. Yes, 269 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: there were stories out there that a number of hedge 270 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: funds and remove prime brokerage business, prime brokeradge and equity 271 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: in fact, weren't. We're actually weak, weak spots versus the 272 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: thick business. So I think it's fair to say, yes, 273 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: we can absolutely identify that trend. But you know, overall, 274 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: the market obviously took a big sigh of relief and said, well, 275 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: the worst fears of franchise erosion haven't come to pass. 276 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: So so that certainly is a positive. But there's no 277 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: question that given the experiences of Lehman, given the kind 278 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: of whole recency bus of European wobbles and worries and 279 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: back in eleven around the sovereign crisis, there's not a 280 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 1: single risk manager out there or counterparty risk committee out 281 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: there that is going to sit by and say and say, well, 282 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: is there a risk? Yes, there might be, Well we'll 283 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: just sit on our hands and do nothing. I think 284 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: it's quite likely we are seeing gradually that risk committees 285 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: are de risking, and logically you don't. You don't lose 286 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: your job for d risking and then putting it back. 287 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: You will lose your job if you have a problem. 288 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: But moving away from prime brokerage, I mean, if you 289 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: talk a little bit more indolved into the investment bank itself. 290 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: So many people have left Deutsche Bank. I mean big 291 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: bankers who are all these deals have gone And if 292 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: you look at their investment advisory business, I mean they 293 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: were the worst of the pack. So if you look 294 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: at that and extrapolate and say, okay, well those are 295 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: the dealmakers help me bring in underwriting equity for example, 296 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: I mean they were in the middle of the pack 297 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: this quarter for that. So will you see in the 298 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: future that if some of these key people have gone, 299 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: that that will be I don't see how you avoid that. 300 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: I think that's fair the franchise. You know, this is 301 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: a people business, and you're setting the people up to 302 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: recognize that. You know, they may not get a cash bonus. 303 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: They may not get a bonus into any sixteen you 304 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: may you may get stocked, you may get some other 305 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: form of interesting asset mix coming out of your non 306 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: core bank. We've seen that done in the past. You're 307 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: also going to potentially risk you know, is there a clawback? 308 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: Is there a clawback on unvested? Is can you convert 309 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: some of the unvested? These are questions that obviously employees 310 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: will be asking themselves. Um, but I think one point 311 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: to remember is we've been through this. UBS has been 312 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: through this. John Crime was a UBS and UBS went 313 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: through it. UM many of the U S banks have 314 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: been through it. Many employees there were whether the storm 315 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: at these U S banks, UM have experienced it. So 316 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: I think short term, yes, there can be erosion, but 317 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: if you can sady the ship. I want to thank 318 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: you very much for joining us, Barrington Pitt Miller equity 319 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: analyst from Janice Capital, and Laura Keller of Bloomberg Finance. 320 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Ben Brody, a reporter for 321 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics. It joins us from Washington, d C, home 322 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg and the one of five point seven h 323 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: D two and he can be followed on Twitter at 324 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 1: Ben Brody d C. All right, Ben Brody, tell us 325 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: about these new leaks, these emails that are in a 326 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: sense compromising the business relationship that former President Bill Clinton 327 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: has with the same organizations that are also donors to 328 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: the Clinton Foundation. Am I getting that right? Yes? You 329 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: basically are. The key here is that these things just 330 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: always overlap. The Clintons have always had a relatively small 331 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 1: group of very loyal staffers who often play a lot 332 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: of roles. And what this most recent alleged hacked email 333 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 1: shows is it was a memo detailing one of these aids, 334 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 1: all the many things that he did for Clinton, helping 335 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 1: to raise money for the foundation, getting Bill Clinton uh 336 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: speeches and private events, and then uh seemingly pressuring this 337 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 1: this particular aid ran a consultancy and seemingly pressuring something. 338 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: This is I mean, you can name him, right, I 339 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: mean Doug. This is Doug band Band and he is 340 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: the co founder of ten Ao Consulting, a l Clinton aide, 341 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: and this came all out from wicked. He calls it 342 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, Inc. I believe. And he has pressuring his 343 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: clients like Coca Cola and al Chemicals to give to 344 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: the foundation. And so all three of those things are 345 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: really lining up well. And Chelsea Clinton raised issues, right, 346 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: I mean, she around this time was questioning whether Doug 347 00:17:56,600 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 1: band Uh sort of had a conflict of interest as 348 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 1: an advisor both to her father and the family foundation 349 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,439 Speaker 1: as he courted clients for the company exactly. She was 350 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: concerned that he was using the Bill Clinton name to 351 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: build his client list, and this memo in some ways 352 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: seems to be a rejection of that. He is saying 353 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: I'm not using Bill Clinton to build my list. I'm 354 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 1: using my list to build the Clinton Foundation because it's 355 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: not meeting its fundraising requirements. Do you think this is 356 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: going to hurt Hillary Clinton? Uh? Certainly. It doubles down 357 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: on the kinds of things that have hurt her, the 358 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: pay to play, Uh, the appearance of friendliness between Wall Street, 359 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: the appearance of influence. But of course, we are in 360 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: the closing days of the election and a lot of 361 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: opinions have already been formed, and it doesn't necessarily touch 362 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: directly on our campaign. It's, you know, rather her husband 363 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: than an aid of his and several of his efforts. 364 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: And how big of an ethical breach is it? Sure, 365 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: it's a big question. You know, lots of us do networking. 366 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: You know, we might be involved with the charity and 367 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 1: we might say to someone the office, hey, could you give. 368 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: On the other hand, it really seems like Doug Band 369 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,439 Speaker 1: has two masters, and one are his paying clients and 370 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,719 Speaker 1: the other is his old boss, and he's trying to 371 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: serve both, and it's not clear to me that he 372 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 1: was doing it in a way that was not conflicted. 373 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 1: There's also the issue of signing a document that would 374 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: preclude a conflict of interest, and according to the email, 375 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: it says that the former president Clinton doesn't have to 376 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: sign such a document, even though according to the email, 377 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: it says he's been paid by three Clinton Global Initiative sponsors, 378 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 1: gets many expensive gifts from them and some that are 379 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: at home. Right also mentions travel, vacation, stays, those kinds 380 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 1: of things, And he's on the payroll of of many 381 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 1: of these companies, like I think there was a three 382 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: point fund, boards and things like that. Makes speeches absolutely um. 383 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: It's unclear exactly what happened at the time. This was 384 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: all happening in the midst of an internal audit, and 385 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 1: whether those kinds of ethical obligations are now in place 386 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: at the foundation we don't know, but it is clear 387 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 1: from the emails at the time that that does not 388 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 1: seem to be the case. How is Chelsea and Clinton 389 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: involved here, because I believe she's had a difficult past 390 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: with this particular Sure, they seem to have a difficult relationship. 391 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: From the email, there's a lot of insults, a lot 392 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: of accusations, hacking, influence, peddling, all kinds of things. It 393 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: basically seems that Chelsea Clinton was coming in to try 394 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: and clean up some of these overlaps, and that she 395 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: had basically brought the audit in um and the band 396 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: was very unhappy with it. He felt that she was 397 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 1: trying to walk into something that he had built just 398 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 1: because she was the natural air. He sort of felt, 399 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: seems to feel in these emails that he was really 400 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: the the architect and she she was butting in where 401 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: she didn't belong. Yeah. Well, and he referred to her 402 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: as a spoiled brat kid. It really is like it 403 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: really is like airing your dirty linen in public. And indeed, 404 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 1: there is a public summary that was prepared by the 405 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: law firm Simpson Thatcher, right, and they talked about strengthening 406 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 1: policies on conflict of interest, absolutely, and that's something that 407 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: it was very clear that a lot of people around 408 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: the foundation wanted to do at that point. But as 409 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: we've seen from a lot of reporting and a lot 410 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 1: of different conflicts, you know, they clearly didn't eliminate the 411 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: appearance of these sorts of things. In twenty seconds, are 412 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: the people who you're speaking to political consultants Bracing for 413 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: another round of releases from Wiki Lakes as we finished 414 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: up the cycle. We see these daily. Sometimes they make 415 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: big news, sometimes they don't, but we are always on 416 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: the lookout for a lot more news that could change 417 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: the momentum of the election or not. Ben Brody, thank 418 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Ben Body, reporter of 419 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Boock Politics in Washington, d c UH. The latest 420 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: breaking down the latest email scandal to emerge from really 421 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 1: getting you're really getting a look at at what goes 422 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: on behind find the scenes. I think that is the 423 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 1: most fascinating, and the detail of all of the companies 424 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: and the amount of money that they gave me only 425 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: to Bill Clinton, but also to the foundation. Well, and 426 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: we would be remiss to mention that this is the 427 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: Wiki leaks, uh, the emails that were their leaked to 428 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: Wiki leagues and are widely believed to have been done 429 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: brought about by Russia. So it's a lot of controversy here, 430 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: but a lot more I'm sure to come in the 431 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: next twelve days. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to 432 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and 433 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform 434 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm pim Fox, I'm out there on Twitter 435 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 436 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 437 00:22:50,119 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio. It