Speaker 1: Check it on Man Now Down Man Dating the Book
Speaker 1: podcast is Kill aleg Bag Fall Gig. This is your episode.
Speaker 1: Paul four, our old staple from Fangrass is here. Also
Speaker 1: the host of the Sleeper in the Bus podcast, will
Speaker 1: do all things major League Baseball here. Season wins, will
Speaker 1: do props, will have division odds actually woven throughout the
Speaker 1: betting aspect woven throughout this podcast episode second hour, though
Speaker 1: the emphasis will be on your season long fantasy leagues.
Speaker 1: PAULI will talk about over and undervalued starting pitchers, and
Speaker 1: then we'll do the same four position players as we
Speaker 1: go around the horn. All Baseball All Show. Right here
Speaker 1: on the Beating the Book Podcast, South Point Hotel and Casino,
Speaker 1: it's Gil Alexander Power number two of the numbers game
Speaker 1: right here at bast of the Vegas Stats and Information
Speaker 1: Network series some channel to at four Visa dot Com,
Speaker 1: the Visa app, food Boat TV, Baseball Time. We talked
Speaker 1: with Josh Towards about this yesterday, but I want to
Speaker 1: bring in my old buddy Um from fan Graphs. He
Speaker 1: works at fan Graphs, does the Sleeper in the Bus podcast.
Speaker 1: Over there. We we started talking about baseball. Me and
Speaker 1: paulse War about eight nine years ago. We had never
Speaker 1: met face to face, and then like two months ago,
Speaker 1: we're in an airport security line. Neither one of us
Speaker 1: was doing t s A. I was with my girlfriend.
Speaker 1: She didn't have tesday, so I had to be in
Speaker 1: the you know, security line till That's how what I
Speaker 1: was rolling that day. And uh, it was this like
Speaker 1: a peasant and it was this long, long, winding, taking
Speaker 1: forever security line. And there's PAULI with his girlfriend right
Speaker 1: like just the sort of the lane behind me. And
Speaker 1: so here we are meeting for the first time, and
Speaker 1: we awkwardly had to like swerve into each other like
Speaker 1: five or six different times. And so the first time
Speaker 1: I'm like, hey, Paul, give each other hug. Second time like,
Speaker 1: oh my god, I can't believe we we met. Third time,
Speaker 1: few small dog. Fourth time we're like hey man, a
Speaker 1: fifth time You're like, I have nothing else. It's very
Speaker 1: awkward right now. Six times like okay, bye, take care
Speaker 1: Paul Smorleys gentleman, good morning, Pauli, Gil. How's it going man? Amazing?
Speaker 1: It was an amazing way to meet too, because you know,
Speaker 1: I mentioned to you that I that I'm going to
Speaker 1: be in town. You're like, oh, you know, I'm not
Speaker 1: really gonna be there. I'm traveling for the holidays. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna dip in for a small period of time and
Speaker 1: we meet in the line. That was unbelievable. But I
Speaker 1: gotta get back out there and and spent some quality
Speaker 1: time with you. Baseball is coming up. I am beyond excited. Yeah,
Speaker 1: what do you like? Six five? By the way, Paul,
Speaker 1: I just want to get a visual purple six correct five?
Speaker 1: I think basically Chris Sale six five and and lean
Speaker 1: Taylor Swift, Chris Sale, that's the body type that you're
Speaker 1: thinking there, Taylor Swift, Chris all right, that's good visual
Speaker 1: right there. Um. By the way, later on the show,
Speaker 1: Tristan Thompson talking all about the Chloe Guardashian it's a
Speaker 1: lot of the people don't like. Okay, I don't have on.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Let's start, Matteo, what are we gonna start
Speaker 1: with here? Let's throw up some on the screen here,
Speaker 1: let's start with home runs. Why don't we start there?
Speaker 1: Gen Carlo Stanton, he of the three hundred fifteen million
Speaker 1: dollar contract. I believe it is, but it's three hundred plus,
Speaker 1: don't don't only do three fifteen. He's the he's the
Speaker 1: top person in the market forty and a half. That's
Speaker 1: where his home run total has been set in the Bronx.
Speaker 1: Then Joey Gallo, who in some seasons has had the
Speaker 1: most interesting stats of anybody, all Homer's and then nothing else.
Speaker 1: Pretty much sort of the Dave Kingman of his generation.
Speaker 1: If you will, Joey Joey Gallo thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Chris Davis, Oakland Athletics reigning home run champ, who I
Speaker 1: had to have the most home runs two years ago
Speaker 1: at fifty one and then didn't play him last year.
Speaker 1: Way to go me? Yeah, yeah, Mike Trout thirty seven
Speaker 1: and a half, Nolan Arronado and Corps at thirty six
Speaker 1: and a half. On down the list, j D and
Speaker 1: Aaron Judge both both at the or, she said, j
Speaker 1: D Martinez at thirty six and a a half, Aaron Judge
Speaker 1: at thirty five and a half, and then on down
Speaker 1: including Harper and Machado at thirty four and a half,
Speaker 1: along with Riese. Hoskins. Who do you like? If anybody here? Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's some tight lines, but I do think there are
Speaker 1: some interesting ones here. Uh, No one Aeronado somebody I
Speaker 1: definitely like a plus thirty six and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't really see a scenario where he's going to be
Speaker 1: traded out. Um, you know, I know that there is
Speaker 1: some concern about that. I've heard some chatter about that
Speaker 1: in the fantasy community that they're worried that will be
Speaker 1: traded out if they're not doing well. First off, I
Speaker 1: just don't think that they're going to do poorly enough.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, I don't think that the Rockies are
Speaker 1: gonna bottom out and have to start selling off pieces.
Speaker 1: And he's at thirty seven thirty eight the last four years,
Speaker 1: so plus thirty six and a half feels pretty good.
Speaker 1: Of course, with any of these uh sort of stat totals,
Speaker 1: you are better betting on a measure of health without
Speaker 1: a doubt, and that's a wild card. But as far
Speaker 1: as you know, if he continues to put up a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five plus games the way he's done
Speaker 1: each of the last four years, I don't know how
Speaker 1: no one Aeronado doesn't get plus thirty six and a half.
Speaker 1: Homers plus thirty six apisode over on thirty six and
Speaker 1: a half, and PAULI said it right there, Mateo. And
Speaker 1: he's the first person I ever heard say it, many
Speaker 1: years ago when he was like twelve years old at
Speaker 1: the time. Staying healthy is the skill, and so for
Speaker 1: all these counting stats, you are basically if you're going over,
Speaker 1: you're betting against injury. That's how we lost the al
Speaker 1: Tuove hits over last year, for instance, we couldn't get
Speaker 1: there because he was out for a certain amount of games.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go and move to the next one. Here,
Speaker 1: Mateo talking to Paul Spore from fan Graphs right here
Speaker 1: on the let me let me throw a couple other
Speaker 1: stockings on the homers appen. It wasn't sure if you
Speaker 1: wanted me to give him all at once. Also love J. D.
Speaker 1: Martinez arguably the best at bad craft bat hitter in
Speaker 1: the game. Plus thirty six and a half for him,
Speaker 1: you know, the more and more he stays off the field,
Speaker 1: the better it is for his health. And then two
Speaker 1: smaller ones Matt Olsen. Matt Olson's a thirty five home
Speaker 1: run hitter and he's at thirty two and a half.
Speaker 1: I really like that one. I believe Reese Hoskins is
Speaker 1: a thirty five to forty home run hitter. As well,
Speaker 1: and so he's at thirty four and a half. So
Speaker 1: I got four overs with Eronado, j D. Martinez, Matt Olson,
Speaker 1: and Reese Hoskins. All right, four Eronado, um, j D Martinez, Hoskins,
Speaker 1: and Matt Olsen. Matt Olsen of the Oakland Athletics. Sort of,
Speaker 1: that one might be my favorite to be on it
Speaker 1: at thirty two and a half. Okay, yeah, interesting, I
Speaker 1: did not expect you to go that way. So let's right,
Speaker 1: let's mark those down. So all overs on those four
Speaker 1: bullish he likes human achievement. Four overs there, All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to hit totals here real quick. These also
Speaker 1: provided by the west Gate this past Sunday. It is
Speaker 1: the affirm mentioned Jose alt with the most one seventy
Speaker 1: eight and a half. If Altuve stays healthy, that's a
Speaker 1: drop in the bucket. And then easy, I mean that one,
Speaker 1: that one, That one's easy right there, if he stays healthy,
Speaker 1: I totally agree. You know, you got the surgery and
Speaker 1: everything looks like he's going to be coming out healthy.
Speaker 1: He almost got there, uh you know, given given back
Speaker 1: twenty games last year. So I definitely like that one
Speaker 1: with Altuve. If you believe that he's gonna stay healthy
Speaker 1: this year, had never really been hurt before this season.
Speaker 1: So the rebound I do like that. Out they won,
Speaker 1: all right. And then you have in uh in order,
Speaker 1: Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackman just a hit behind him at
Speaker 1: one seventy seven and a half. That's where the market
Speaker 1: was established. Yet lets one seventy two and a half,
Speaker 1: a trio of players at one seventy and a half,
Speaker 1: tray Turner again, Nolan Arronado, and then Wit Marrifield of
Speaker 1: the Royals, and then Jean Sigura Jean Segura New Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: Philly at one sixty nine and a half. On down
Speaker 1: the line, Trout one fifty four and a half. U A.
Speaker 1: Kunya Jr. At one sixty five and a half. Uh,
Speaker 1: Trout's gotta stay healthy. I mean all these guys do,
Speaker 1: but Trout someone who, uh you would want to stay
Speaker 1: healthy to get to that. What do you think about
Speaker 1: the rest of these guys? I mean, that's the one
Speaker 1: for me though. It's Trout, and it is it is
Speaker 1: of course a major bet on house because the last
Speaker 1: two seasons he's gotten, but before that it was five
Speaker 1: straight seasons of at least a hundred and seventy three hits,
Speaker 1: So I feel like they're giving you a little something here. Um,
Speaker 1: and anytime I can bet on Mike Trout and and
Speaker 1: and feel like, oh, I really need to sit for
Speaker 1: him to not get another injury. You know, these have
Speaker 1: not been chronic injuries. I don't see a major issue
Speaker 1: with with Mike Trout's health profile right now. One was
Speaker 1: sliding into a base. That's kind of a fluke situation there.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm gonna bet on now. And that's my favorite.
Speaker 1: That's really the only one that I dope in on
Speaker 1: outside of my liking how Tobe give me Trout over
Speaker 1: a hundred fifty four and a half hits for sure?
Speaker 1: Is there an under there that you're looking at? Is
Speaker 1: there is there one of these where like that seems
Speaker 1: way too high? None that felt way too high? Um.
Speaker 1: You know, the fantasy community has really kind of come
Speaker 1: around that went Maryorfield is kind of you know, is
Speaker 1: a legit hitter, and the things that we've seen out
Speaker 1: of him have been pretty nice. He is gonna be
Speaker 1: aged thirties. Oh so if I am picking an under
Speaker 1: I think just kind of going against the grain on
Speaker 1: him off of a career year. Uh, you know, he
Speaker 1: was off of a career year going into eighteen two.
Speaker 1: You know, but I think just betting on him to
Speaker 1: maybe an injury is all you really need. They're not
Speaker 1: that you're rooting for injury, but one injury I think
Speaker 1: kind of derails that for went Maryfield. He had a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty nine. Uh, a nice hit total in
Speaker 1: So I'll go under on wit Mayorfield. All right, I
Speaker 1: just went going under on wit Mayorfield. By the way,
Speaker 1: Wit Mayorfield. It's funny that you say these things because
Speaker 1: now I'm looking up the exact number right at the
Speaker 1: current moment, Wit Maryfield still at one seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Altuve did go up one hit. So Altuve, the market
Speaker 1: agrees with you. He's at one seventy nine and a
Speaker 1: half now, it's still in over for me. Uh. And
Speaker 1: and Mike Trout did go up one hit as well.
Speaker 1: He's at one fifty five and a half, so the
Speaker 1: market agrees with you. Here. Yeah, me too, still early,
Speaker 1: but uh, you're you're reflecting the market. Last one here, Uh,
Speaker 1: this is win totals for pictures now obviously in this
Speaker 1: day and age, especially with the the advent of the opener,
Speaker 1: and some of these h for some of these teams,
Speaker 1: but just more bullpen by the by the year um
Speaker 1: tougher for guys to get to certain win totals. Corey
Speaker 1: Kloper has been a guy that gets wins though he's
Speaker 1: the top guy. Sixteen and a half. Then you have Sales, Severino,
Speaker 1: carrasco Verlander and Scherzer murderers row All at fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half, and then uh Snell and Nole at fourteen
Speaker 1: and a half, and then a six a sex head
Speaker 1: if you will, Pitchers to Graham, Cole Price, Kershaw, Paxton
Speaker 1: Bower thirteen and a half. Kershaw is an interesting one
Speaker 1: because to me he's not even the ace of that
Speaker 1: staff anymore. And I've sort of been barrished on. I know,
Speaker 1: I know it's sacrilege. Um. What do you like here
Speaker 1: over under? You know, I didn't really think i'd like
Speaker 1: much of this um, but but I ended up with
Speaker 1: five names that I kind of like. First off, I
Speaker 1: think the gram's kind of a layup. You know, they
Speaker 1: got a lot better the way he pitched last year.
Speaker 1: He probably deserved like dirty Winds yea, he was that good.
Speaker 1: Put him on like a league average offense, and he
Speaker 1: seriously would have won like twenty three games probably, So
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half is kind of a gift there.
Speaker 1: I'll definitely take that one. I'll go under on a
Speaker 1: couple of thirteen and a half's John Lester and Za
Speaker 1: Granky Lester. You know they're both getting up there in age.
Speaker 1: The Lester one is a bet against him and the Cubs,
Speaker 1: whereas the Grinky one is a little bit of a bet,
Speaker 1: more against the Diamondbacks than him specifically. I just said
Speaker 1: that they don't have a great situation over there. I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be kind of a middling team, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that's gonna be under for Zac
Speaker 1: Granky and then two overs on the lower end. I
Speaker 1: love Jamison tie On this year and think he's poised
Speaker 1: for a massive year. So over eleven and a half
Speaker 1: feels pretty big for me. Like, I love that one.
Speaker 1: I think even if he just repeats what he did
Speaker 1: last year, well, obviously if he just repeats to get fourteen,
Speaker 1: but I mean skills wise, I mean, just repeats what
Speaker 1: he did last year, tie on the lock for that
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. And you mentioned the opener and
Speaker 1: right now they've said that Charlie Morton won't get an
Speaker 1: opener necessarily, but if he does, then nine and a
Speaker 1: half isn't is an absolute lock because then he's coming
Speaker 1: in in the second inning. So I would almost love
Speaker 1: for Charlie Morton to get an opener. He is a
Speaker 1: five six inning kind of guy, he's getting older, he's great.
Speaker 1: But slap an opener on the front there and Charlie
Speaker 1: Morton could win sixteen seventeen gay of so plus nine
Speaker 1: and a half. That's easy peasy for me, easy peasy.
Speaker 1: I like that the the angle that the opener actually
Speaker 1: helps story because you uh, as you say, slap it
Speaker 1: inning there off the top um, so you think that's
Speaker 1: actually better for the for him getting the win um,
Speaker 1: which is yeah, it makes sense. Again, this is so
Speaker 1: much of modeling with baseball is how many times you
Speaker 1: go through the lineup. And the whole story with the
Speaker 1: opener is that opener faces the first three batters and
Speaker 1: then it starts with the number four batter technically for
Speaker 1: for what would be the would be starter? Yeah, ideally
Speaker 1: what for the would be starter if you will, um.
Speaker 1: So it's a whole complicated puzzle a whole different way
Speaker 1: to calculate these things these days. Good stuff right there.
Speaker 1: So you're give me your your best over and your
Speaker 1: best under and all that. My best over would be
Speaker 1: give me Jamison time, because we don't know if Charlie
Speaker 1: Morton is going to get an opener at plus eleven
Speaker 1: over eleven and a half. And my best under is
Speaker 1: John Lester thirteen and a half. I think I think
Speaker 1: I'm over to grum. I think is my number one over.
Speaker 1: I like the Lester call as ll uh coming back
Speaker 1: Paul Sport from fan graps at sporer s p O
Speaker 1: r e Er on Twitter. We'll talk American League season wins,
Speaker 1: National League season wins. We've been getting some futures. I
Speaker 1: don't love futures pre flop for lots of reasons which
Speaker 1: I'll talk about. But we'll get police take on all
Speaker 1: of that. It's next on a numbers game right here
Speaker 1: at Visa. Back to a numbers game with your host
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa Studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Back on the numbers game. As the man said, right
Speaker 1: here at Visa, Matt Jones and I already again we've
Speaker 1: set the over under on Bryce Harper being signed by
Speaker 1: whatever team fifteen minutes what was it, twenty two minutes
Speaker 1: after the show Pacific. Everything always goes down right after
Speaker 1: the show, just like Macado yesterday. So well we assume that, uh,
Speaker 1: that will happen with Harper this morning. A virtual lock
Speaker 1: back with Paul Sport from fan Graps still doing Sleeper
Speaker 1: in the Bus that podcast. PAULI the award winning Sleeper
Speaker 1: in the Bus. Wee We won an award a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. So
Speaker 1: very happy about that. We're pumping them out. We're in
Speaker 1: full We're in a full ladder over there, getting ready
Speaker 1: for the season. Absolutely. Congratulations, man, that's awesome. I have
Speaker 1: always said that if first of all, no one likes
Speaker 1: anything as much as Paul loves baseball. Uh again, what
Speaker 1: was it? I said, you love baseball as much as
Speaker 1: people love their cats. When I said dogs, you said,
Speaker 1: don't go crazy, don't go crazy with dogs. I love
Speaker 1: my dogs. You love your cat. You don't love your
Speaker 1: cat as much as Paul loves baseball. You don't I
Speaker 1: love baseball more than you love your cat. That's right, definitely, well,
Speaker 1: you definitely love baseball. More than my cat loves me.
Speaker 1: That's that's well, that's that's not hard. That's the problem. See,
Speaker 1: cats they're they're they're mean. That's why dogs are better.
Speaker 1: But we don't need to get into that because I
Speaker 1: can do a whole mean spirited UM. Matt's can. I
Speaker 1: don't know what I know anybody else's um. But that
Speaker 1: is the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. The Sleeper in
Speaker 1: the Bus podcast is a deep dive into baseball. Do
Speaker 1: you guys still like what's your average length podcast? Oh,
Speaker 1: we've been putting up some some gems here in the
Speaker 1: off season. We definitely go an hour plus, but with
Speaker 1: these position previews we're clocking to two plus hours. We
Speaker 1: try to break it up. So if you added up
Speaker 1: the two parts of say the first base preview, we
Speaker 1: legitimately got five hours of fantasy first base and it's
Speaker 1: it's been kind of wild. But whenever we apologize to
Speaker 1: you know at the end, like oh you know, sorry,
Speaker 1: that's went long, guaranteed we get five six tweets or
Speaker 1: more saying no, no no, no, We like it when it's
Speaker 1: when it's super long, keep keep going. It's all good.
Speaker 1: So you know, people break it up obviously, you're not
Speaker 1: getting it done in one commute. You've got it to
Speaker 1: kind of listen to over the course of a few days.
Speaker 1: So people like it, and so we're just gonna get
Speaker 1: where we're long form. That's what we do long form.
Speaker 1: I like that. I get the same thing the other
Speaker 1: day when I was doing Pythagrian theorem and base runs
Speaker 1: and one run outcomes talking about season win totals. There's
Speaker 1: always your right I apologize, I do the same thing.
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, I know that's a little little too
Speaker 1: much in the weeds for some people. There's always five
Speaker 1: or six people like no, no, no no, no, no no, please
Speaker 1: please please do do more of that. All right, let's
Speaker 1: do Let's do American League here first, PAULI. Let's do
Speaker 1: season win totals on American League teams, and we'll just
Speaker 1: I'll throw out the East here first, and you can
Speaker 1: just tell me by division, is there an over under
Speaker 1: that you love or do you have a lean or
Speaker 1: do you have nothing. Let's start with the American League East,
Speaker 1: and we'll do it um. Whenever you want to throw
Speaker 1: up here, mateo. If you want to do Caesar's or Westgate,
Speaker 1: we'll throw them up on the screen. At Visa dot com.
Speaker 1: The visa happen with Fobo TV. But obviously it's the
Speaker 1: Red Sox who had a lot of I was pointing
Speaker 1: out the other day, a lot of uh overachievement versus
Speaker 1: their pythag last year eight win team in your standings
Speaker 1: during the regular season. But they're about a nine win team.
Speaker 1: Still great, right, Uh, here's here are the Caesar's numbers. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's the Yankees who have the most. They've gone up
Speaker 1: from ninety six and a half tone the Red Sox,
Speaker 1: who I was talking about both from a Pythagrian theorem
Speaker 1: base runs perspective, even if one run outcomes perspective, UM.
Speaker 1: As great as they were World Series champs, probably it
Speaker 1: shouldn't have been a one eight win team. That doesn't
Speaker 1: mean that they're not good at baseball. Their season win
Speaker 1: total for next year starts out at ninety five and
Speaker 1: a half. It is dropped to ninety four and a
Speaker 1: half at Caesar's raised from eight five and a half
Speaker 1: to eighty four, Jays from seventy six and a half
Speaker 1: to seventy four, the Orioles from fifty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: You have the Westgate numbers. Those don't vary that much.
Speaker 1: The Red Sox are the one team in baseball where
Speaker 1: the difference is the most a two game difference, so
Speaker 1: here they are from the West. We just flashed him up,
Speaker 1: so the right around there, So anything in the A
Speaker 1: at least over or under, sir. Yeah, I'm I'm a
Speaker 1: little little bearish on the Red Sox as well, coming
Speaker 1: off obviously the big World Series win. Uh you talked
Speaker 1: about the Cammeberell situation. They they're saying now that they're
Speaker 1: not going to bring him back. I don't know what
Speaker 1: they really got going on in their bullpen. I know
Speaker 1: you can kind of build a bullpen on the fly,
Speaker 1: but I don't love what they've got, So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go under on the Red Sox and over on the Race.
Speaker 1: I like what the Rays have done. Obviously, they had
Speaker 1: that nine season last year that unfortunately really didn't result
Speaker 1: in anything because of the difficult division that they're in.
Speaker 1: Could be the same thing this year. They could put up,
Speaker 1: you know, an eight win season and still find themselves
Speaker 1: at home if another team in probably and probably have
Speaker 1: to be the A L West because I don't know
Speaker 1: that anybody's going to emerge in the AL Central to
Speaker 1: take the second wild card, but the same thing could
Speaker 1: happen again. I like a lot of the moves that
Speaker 1: they made. They already mentioned Charlie Morton. They've got some
Speaker 1: depth of pitching. Brent Honeywell is eventually going to come back.
Speaker 1: They're always working the edges to improve their team. So
Speaker 1: they don't even need to repeat their ninety because they're
Speaker 1: giving us a number of eighty four and a half.
Speaker 1: So down on the red sox, up on the rays,
Speaker 1: down on the red sox, up on the rays. Interesting
Speaker 1: to note that the Orioles at fifty nine and a
Speaker 1: half is right where it ought to be, so we're right.
Speaker 1: So we're right in that pocket. Uh, let's go to
Speaker 1: the al Central. Obviously, the Indians. I'm I'm very bullish
Speaker 1: on the Indians. I tend to be in recent history
Speaker 1: all the time. Um, they're at one again. If you
Speaker 1: base it on stuff like with Agrian theorem and base runs,
Speaker 1: they were probably a better team last year than their
Speaker 1: record indicated. I can tell by your reaction you may
Speaker 1: not agree with this. Uh, Twins at eighty four right now?
Speaker 1: These are via Caesar's white socks seventy five and a
Speaker 1: half Royal seventy, Tigers sixty eight, and again the Westgate
Speaker 1: numbers really right in those pockets. Not much difference between
Speaker 1: them and those at Caesar's. Currently, what do you like?
Speaker 1: What do you not like? Here? Gil? You know who's
Speaker 1: playing center field for the for the Indians for April
Speaker 1: and may me you got I'm going I'm going in
Speaker 1: man because they didn't have any outfield. There's the hell
Speaker 1: o raffle for whoever the heck wanted to do it.
Speaker 1: I said, you know what, I'll run it out down
Speaker 1: thirty seven. I'm trashed, but I can't be any worse
Speaker 1: than what they got. They don't have an outfield. I
Speaker 1: don't understand what the heck this team is doing. They're
Speaker 1: sitting on their hands. Now here's where the tough part
Speaker 1: comes in, because I really hate Cleveland for October. But
Speaker 1: I don't know that I can go aggressive on the
Speaker 1: under because they are that they're They're pitching is so
Speaker 1: strong that they can kind of coast and that division
Speaker 1: is is pretty crummy. Um, But don't sleep on the Twins.
Speaker 1: They've had a good season. If I really wish, obviously
Speaker 1: that the White Sox would have gotten a Machado or
Speaker 1: a Harper. I don't think they're gonna get Harper. I
Speaker 1: think Machado was the one that they were angling for,
Speaker 1: and I thought they could have made some noise. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't have a whole lot of love
Speaker 1: for the Royals of the Tigers. They're not going to
Speaker 1: be super challenged in the regular season, so that's probably
Speaker 1: a good number that they have there where they got wins.
Speaker 1: But I really don't like this team, and I think
Speaker 1: that they're living by a thread. Uh, they don't have
Speaker 1: an outfield. I'm not impressed with what they've done. That
Speaker 1: pitching is great, but when you're fully built on pitching,
Speaker 1: you know, little little injury bug strikes the club and
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you're looking at like an eight
Speaker 1: seven wins and that could still win the division. So
Speaker 1: I it's a soft under on Cleveland. I just don't
Speaker 1: like what they've got and I definitely hate them for October.
Speaker 1: So there's no universe where I would bet them for
Speaker 1: World Series or a l futures. Yeah, I give you
Speaker 1: the outfield, I really, I mean, no Tyler Naquin right,
Speaker 1: no Leonis Martine to start things off at all and
Speaker 1: in Yeah, Greg Allen is in there, and I don't
Speaker 1: know who else besides Greg Allen, really who slots in
Speaker 1: exactly anything else with Twins, White Sox, Royals or your
Speaker 1: beloved Tigers. No, my beloved Tiger sixty nine and a
Speaker 1: half nights. That's that's that's about what it's gonna be.
Speaker 1: Twins are kind of sneaky, but they put them at
Speaker 1: at over eight already, so I don't know, I can't
Speaker 1: really get two hypes there. So now it's a it's
Speaker 1: a pretty well well structured division there as far as
Speaker 1: the wind total scope, because even Cleveland, I can't really
Speaker 1: express my disdain for them at a nine total. If
Speaker 1: they had a more in the nine three plus range,
Speaker 1: I'd be hammering the ender. Okay, so so not even
Speaker 1: so not even a play on the Indians. Then you're
Speaker 1: a little too alright, so nothing in the central, but
Speaker 1: you like so far it's the Red Sox under in
Speaker 1: the raise over correct, All right, Let's go to the
Speaker 1: ale West real quick here before the break um Astros
Speaker 1: of course ruling the roost ninety six and a half.
Speaker 1: Right now it's Caesar's and then it's everybody else. Let's
Speaker 1: face it angels right in the Angels kind of pocket there,
Speaker 1: PAULI low eighties eighty three at Caesar's. I think it's
Speaker 1: a little less at Westgate. Athletics just changed right there
Speaker 1: on the screen, eighty two and a half Athletics a
Speaker 1: D three and a half. And then there's the Mariners
Speaker 1: and the Rangers. This is interesting on the Mariners, right,
Speaker 1: because if I go to Pythagrian theorem and base runs
Speaker 1: and one run outcomes, particularly extra aning outcomes last year
Speaker 1: where they were fourteen and one with Edwin Diaz closing.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's insane, right, They're they're at seventy, so
Speaker 1: even if you even if you factor in all those things,
Speaker 1: they become sort of a baseline seventy eight win team
Speaker 1: from last year. But ob obviously they've purged there at seventy.
Speaker 1: Do you feel any which way about them or any
Speaker 1: other team in this division? I do like because I
Speaker 1: was kind of looking at that same one there too,
Speaker 1: where I don't know that they're a seventy win kind
Speaker 1: of team because they purge all out of their talent,
Speaker 1: but not to bottom out and rebuild. Really, it's more
Speaker 1: of a retool and they're trying to they're almost kind
Speaker 1: of trying to go Tampa Bay raised with with no
Speaker 1: name guys, you know, telling the big name for some
Speaker 1: of the no names stuff. And they have some name guys,
Speaker 1: you know, Jay Bruce and and Edwin and Canarcon. But no,
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go over on the Mariners there.
Speaker 1: And I'm surprised that I feel that way. But it's
Speaker 1: you know, based on where the number is, I actually
Speaker 1: lean closer to saying they can beat that seventy You
Speaker 1: really only need obviously, you only need a seventy one
Speaker 1: win season, but I think they can definitely do that. Uh,
Speaker 1: They've priced the Angels and Athletics pretty tightly. It's tough.
Speaker 1: I like both those clubs. You know, we're big on
Speaker 1: the A's last year, they came through for sure. Uh
Speaker 1: you know, no, they're not sneaking up on anyone this year.
Speaker 1: The Angels are the one that I I am vascillating
Speaker 1: on right now. Wouldn't you say they that's a tough one. Um.
Speaker 1: I do think that they've got a good club. They're
Speaker 1: they're pitching is a little bit fragile health wise, for sure,
Speaker 1: but I like a lot of the moves that they've made. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, taking gambles. I know he's already got a
Speaker 1: glut strain or whatever, but that's nothing for Harvey Trevor K.
Speaker 1: Hill like it's injury gambles that they've taken. I like
Speaker 1: signing Cody Allen. I think he can bounce back. That
Speaker 1: lineup is deep. I wish I had just a little
Speaker 1: bit more confidence in their pitching. They should go out
Speaker 1: and sign Kimbrill and then I would, oh my god,
Speaker 1: I would love that. Of course their number would go up,
Speaker 1: but I think they're a good fit. So I have
Speaker 1: a slight lean on the Angels over, just because I
Speaker 1: think once so Tony gets back, that lineup runs really deep,
Speaker 1: and they're pitching is playable. So I wouldn't hammer that
Speaker 1: one by any stretch. But the Mariners one, I would.
Speaker 1: I would put a real beat over. And that's the
Speaker 1: thing about Kimbrill too. He really would move these markets
Speaker 1: in a way that I'm not sure even Bryce Harper does.
Speaker 1: Quite frankly, at least it wouldn't have book, you know, so,
Speaker 1: um so Mariners over is the big one there. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: all right, we'll do the National League Paul Sport fan graphs.
Speaker 1: We'll get to it maybe some futures at the end
Speaker 1: as well. Right here on a Numbers game at Visa.
Speaker 1: Back to a Numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Duke and North Carolina again tonight, we were talking about
Speaker 1: Duke Carolina some forty years ago. What are they like?
Speaker 1: What's one oh two to one on one in the
Speaker 1: last two hundred three games some some ridiculous number, and
Speaker 1: Duke has outscored Carolina by three points. Don't hold me
Speaker 1: to the one two, one on one, but basically it's
Speaker 1: it's almost five or one. Team Carolina has one game
Speaker 1: up on Duke. Might be one and like the last
Speaker 1: a hundred and three games, but Duke's outscored them by
Speaker 1: three points in that process. That's how close that rivalry
Speaker 1: has been through the years. Talking baseball with Paul Spore
Speaker 1: right here from Fan Graphs. Let's go to the National League.
Speaker 1: Let's try to get some season win totals. Let's start
Speaker 1: in the East, maybe the most interesting division at all
Speaker 1: of baseball this year and maybe the most top heavy. Uh.
Speaker 1: Apologies to the Marlins, apologies to you guys. At sixty
Speaker 1: four wins, but everybody else Nationals maybe better without Bryce
Speaker 1: Harper at eight eight and a half currently at Caesar's Braves,
Speaker 1: defending National League East champs with ninety wins. Last year
Speaker 1: they got eight seven. The Mets, who have done the
Speaker 1: opposite of the tear down. They're like, we're winning now
Speaker 1: there at eighty six, and then there's the Phillies at
Speaker 1: eight seven. Just moved up there on the screen. We
Speaker 1: reverse the order, Phillies eighties seven, anticipating perhaps Bryce Harper
Speaker 1: coming to play at Citizens Bank anything here, because they're
Speaker 1: all but the exception, with the exception of the Marlins, obviously,
Speaker 1: they're all pretty much right in the same pocket. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that that's pretty tight, and it is tough. It's definitely
Speaker 1: something that if I if I were going to jump in,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be at at a major bet. But I
Speaker 1: do kind of like the Phillies. I like jumping in
Speaker 1: before potential harpersonic because I really do think they are
Speaker 1: going to get him, So I think I might make
Speaker 1: a little small play there. And as much as I
Speaker 1: like the praise, particularly as a long term situation, I
Speaker 1: do think that last year was kind of the beginning
Speaker 1: of a of a nice open window. That doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that it's a straight upward trajectory. I feel like this
Speaker 1: year they could kind of bounce back down a little bit,
Speaker 1: maybe have the proverbial sophomore slump, but as a team,
Speaker 1: and it's it's really you to that starting pitching. Now.
Speaker 1: The tough part there's they have so much starting pitching
Speaker 1: in the minors that if some of these guys that
Speaker 1: they currently have, like Tehran and Newcombe and and Tucson,
Speaker 1: who I like it probably more as a reliever because
Speaker 1: he's a little bit wild than it doesn't have a
Speaker 1: great depth of arsenal, they can replace them with so
Speaker 1: many guys. So again, I I can't get super excited
Speaker 1: and bet the under there. But that's that's my lean
Speaker 1: with the Braves is under over with the Phillies. I
Speaker 1: feel stronger about the Phillies than the Braves. It's just
Speaker 1: such a tight division. Though they're gonna beat the heck
Speaker 1: out of each other. Honestly, I think the best moves
Speaker 1: probably to just go under on the Marlins because every
Speaker 1: team is gonna pummel them, and we should probably have
Speaker 1: prefaced it. I probably buried the headline last year before
Speaker 1: the season Uh, PAULI was very bullish on the Braves
Speaker 1: when very few people were, And I would say you
Speaker 1: were the only person, because I did hear a couple
Speaker 1: of our other experts talk braves. You were the only
Speaker 1: person I heard that was super bullish on the athletics.
Speaker 1: And you hit that in spades as well. So obviously
Speaker 1: your your words weigh heavily here. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: central where you have a a a team in the
Speaker 1: Cubbies that based on Pakoda versus season win totals in
Speaker 1: the betting market is the widest gap. So in the
Speaker 1: betting markets, you got the Cubbies at eighty nine at
Speaker 1: Caesar's right around there at the West Gate as well,
Speaker 1: which you have in your hand, Cardinals eighty eight and
Speaker 1: a half. Obviously, Paul goldschmant one slotted right there in
Speaker 1: the three spot in that lineup this year, Brew Crew
Speaker 1: at eight seven and then the Reds at seventy nine,
Speaker 1: the Pirates at seventy seven and a half. Um, Pakoda
Speaker 1: Cubs now below eighty Paul, how do you feel about them? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I I tend to lean closer to Pakoda than than
Speaker 1: to the betting markets. There. I'm just not really in on.
Speaker 1: The Cubs kind of mentioned it a little bit with
Speaker 1: the John Lester situation. Uh, it's an old rotation. Um,
Speaker 1: it's weird. Like I I like aspects of it. I
Speaker 1: think Darmish can bounce back, have a nice diasy someone
Speaker 1: I'm I'm drafting in fantasy. But the rest of the
Speaker 1: rotation is really starting to get up there in age.
Speaker 1: You've got a couple of thirty five year olds. You've
Speaker 1: got pretty much everyone I think north of thirty. Hendricks
Speaker 1: might be or thirty himself. Um, the lineup is hardly bad.
Speaker 1: In fact, there's some improvement potential there with a few
Speaker 1: guys namely Ian Happ and Wilson and Trais getting back
Speaker 1: on track. But I also think that there's uh, you know,
Speaker 1: gonna be some comeback on somebody like a Jabier by it.
Speaker 1: I think my biggest issue with this ball club is
Speaker 1: their bullpen. I like, I actually like their main asset,
Speaker 1: Pedro Stroke. I think he's gonna kind of hold the
Speaker 1: closer's job all year. I just don't believe in Brandon
Speaker 1: Morrow's health at all. But it's a thin bullpen and
Speaker 1: they're they've really tightened the purse strings. They're crying poor here.
Speaker 1: They they've had a quiet offseason as they cried poor.
Speaker 1: These Chicago Cubs are gonna try to convince us that
Speaker 1: they don't have any money. That's hilarious. Uh So hopefully
Speaker 1: they they suffer the consequences. They're tightening the purse strings
Speaker 1: and take bosses. That's a very difficult division. That's another
Speaker 1: reason that I don't really like them. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go under on the Cubbies there at eighty nine and
Speaker 1: a half pretty easily because they can still be a
Speaker 1: quality even playoff team and not go eighty nine and
Speaker 1: a half. So that's an easy under there. Definitely agree there,
Speaker 1: Brewers difficult to jump back in on the team that
Speaker 1: had kind of the big season, the big dream season.
Speaker 1: They're going ninety six wins, but they only got him
Speaker 1: at eighty six and a half. I don't see them
Speaker 1: losing ten wins. The main reason is because, yes, the
Speaker 1: bullpen is gonna regress, because anytime you get that good
Speaker 1: of a bullpen, it's gonna come back to the pack.
Speaker 1: I like their rotation to sneak tip be an asset
Speaker 1: this year, whereas last year they kind of meandered through
Speaker 1: it and and and muddled around with some of these
Speaker 1: guys and and pieced it together. I think this year
Speaker 1: it could be a strength. Jimmy Nelson coming back for
Speaker 1: a full season. I really like him, some youngsters like
Speaker 1: Brandon Woodriff, Corbin Burns, and then they have a lot
Speaker 1: of that that solid, if un spectacular, you know, the
Speaker 1: guys that they had last year, like you leash Shot
Speaker 1: seen Chase Anderson, Zack Davis kind of at the back end.
Speaker 1: So I like the Brewers still at plus eighty six
Speaker 1: and a half, and they priced the Reds very fairly,
Speaker 1: so I wanted to be like hardcore in on them,
Speaker 1: but seventy nine and a half pretty good. I do
Speaker 1: think there are five ball club though, so I will
Speaker 1: put a little one on the Reds as well. I
Speaker 1: love what they've done this offseason. They were kind of
Speaker 1: a sneak tip offense last year that people probably didn't
Speaker 1: realize what's very good. I mean, your audience knows because
Speaker 1: they're in the numbers. But they had a good offense
Speaker 1: last year and they've added some pitching. So I'll go
Speaker 1: with the Reds as well for a small bat. All right,
Speaker 1: Cubs under though, I'm with you, that's sort of. I
Speaker 1: don't want to say anything's in auto fade, but that's
Speaker 1: about as close to it gets. You almost just on principle,
Speaker 1: have to go under if you're doing this by by
Speaker 1: the Numbers, talking to Paul Sport from Fan Graphs, also
Speaker 1: the host of their co host of the award winning
Speaker 1: Sleeper in the Bus podcast, Let's go to the West
Speaker 1: in the National League real quick here, Dodgers World Series,
Speaker 1: Bridesmaid last two years, it's a championship or bust. They're
Speaker 1: at ninety three and a half right now at Caesar's.
Speaker 1: The Rockies, who I always find interesting when it comes
Speaker 1: to season in totals because no matter what, uh, although
Speaker 1: I will say last year wasn't a sweat for Rockies overs,
Speaker 1: it wasn't. They cruised into a too and over last
Speaker 1: year there are eighty five and a half over at Caesar's.
Speaker 1: Then you got the Padres again with Manny Machadow up
Speaker 1: seventy eight and a half. We'll check with that number,
Speaker 1: is it right now? Exactly? The Back's Giants both at
Speaker 1: seventy four and a half. By the way, shout out
Speaker 1: Bruce Bocci, who was retiring at the end of the
Speaker 1: season three Times World Series Champion Manager four the Giants ineen,
Speaker 1: what sticks out for you here? Not a whole lot
Speaker 1: another another division that's kind of well priced there. I
Speaker 1: think the Rockies will be a solid team yet again,
Speaker 1: but I don't know that they're necessarily added wins, so um,
Speaker 1: they wanted what they win last year, uh, and they
Speaker 1: got them for and they got him for eighty four
Speaker 1: and a half. So I mean, I could see a
Speaker 1: small play on the over there because I don't think
Speaker 1: that they're necessarily gonna come all the way down to
Speaker 1: eighty four. I think they're more of an upper eighties
Speaker 1: win team, so kind of like what the Rockies are
Speaker 1: doing there. Um again, I don't think they're gonna fall
Speaker 1: apart and start trading pieces, which is a concern for
Speaker 1: some folks, but I just don't see it. But my
Speaker 1: main play in the West would be the Giants under
Speaker 1: seventy three and a half. Obviously, this is priced with
Speaker 1: the pieces that they have because they didn't make any
Speaker 1: moves to start selling off anything. And I know that
Speaker 1: they've been rumored on Harper. In fact, even today there's
Speaker 1: another report that says that they're kind of been I
Speaker 1: don't want to get off on a whole tangent. But
Speaker 1: why in God's name would Bryce Harper go to that
Speaker 1: stadium for his prime I'm sorry, Like, the stadium is beautiful,
Speaker 1: the city's great, you know nothing. I'm not shading San Francisco,
Speaker 1: but I'm shading their park as a left handed power hitter,
Speaker 1: and the state of their team. They have no farm system,
Speaker 1: like they need to tear it down. So the fact
Speaker 1: that they're even talking to Harper is so delusional it's
Speaker 1: not even funny. But yeah, they've got all these old
Speaker 1: pieces that they haven't sold off yet, so that's why
Speaker 1: they got seventy three and a half. This should be
Speaker 1: a sub seventy win team. So I'd on a hammer
Speaker 1: the under with the Giants there. I think that they're
Speaker 1: going to move some of these pieces, including Madison bum
Speaker 1: Garner in season once they realize that they're not good.
Speaker 1: Madison bub Garden Sai. If you put an opener in
Speaker 1: my games, I'm walking off the I'm walking out of
Speaker 1: the stadium right at that moment. It's such an unnecessary
Speaker 1: tough talker. Nobody was going to put an opener on
Speaker 1: the game, dude. They don't put openers on stud so
Speaker 1: just shut your mouth, stop a tving, and go pitch.
Speaker 1: No one was threatening you with an opener. So true,
Speaker 1: you're a TV uh shot at Madison bub Garner, who
Speaker 1: of course is a World Series legend. Let's just point
Speaker 1: that out. But everybody in the bag, oh man, that hurt.
Speaker 1: That hurt to hear them as a sub seventy team.
Speaker 1: And I think you're right about Bryce Harper. Listen, I
Speaker 1: would love I spent most of my adult life in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I'd love to see Bryce Harper in Giant's uniform.
Speaker 1: But not for one second, Paul, have I believed it
Speaker 1: would ever happen. I always thought that was just noise.
Speaker 1: We'll come back with PAULI will do little futures here
Speaker 1: at the end, wrapping it up on a numbers game
Speaker 1: right here at Visa. Now back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our studios
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. Remember, when it comes to finding value,
Speaker 1: price shopping always key. Whether you're buying a car or
Speaker 1: making a sports bet, you always want to make sure
Speaker 1: you're getting the best number. That's how this works, and
Speaker 1: a props whip you'll find the best numbers on futures props,
Speaker 1: marketplace where people buy and sell active sports bets. Last year,
Speaker 1: thousands of tickets were sold at odds better than any
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Speaker 1: to prop swap dot com or download the prop swap app.
Speaker 1: Speaking of futures, Paul Sporer here from fan Graphs in
Speaker 1: our remaining minute. Here, PAULI the futures market. I always
Speaker 1: say this about about Baseball. I say it about other sports,
Speaker 1: but primarily in baseball. Pre flop futures suck in terms
Speaker 1: of bang for your buck, wait till there's a swoon,
Speaker 1: and then jumping on a team that you had a
Speaker 1: conviction on. I did it with the Dodgers last year
Speaker 1: when they were sick. Steen in twenty six timed it perfectly,
Speaker 1: almost got to the promised land. Didn't quite work out,
Speaker 1: but you get much more value at that point in
Speaker 1: the pre flop market. Here the Red Sox, actually the
Speaker 1: Astros and the Yankees at six to one, the Red Sox,
Speaker 1: and the Dodgers at seven and one, all the way
Speaker 1: down to is the biggest longest shot on the board
Speaker 1: the Orioles, of course, uh two thousand and one, um
Speaker 1: any any value pre flop on this real quick. It's tough.
Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. It's not something I necessarily
Speaker 1: like to get into the Mets. I'm kind of bought
Speaker 1: in on what they did. I'm trying not to get
Speaker 1: two bought in on it, because you know, you don't
Speaker 1: always want to go with the team that kind of
Speaker 1: wins the off season. But I really like a lot
Speaker 1: of what they've done after they did the canoe move.
Speaker 1: I want to see if they would do other stuff
Speaker 1: or just kind of sit on that, And they've done
Speaker 1: a whole lot of other stuff that I like. But again,
Speaker 1: that division is tough because I also like the Gnats,
Speaker 1: and you know, you got those two teams bus Phillies
Speaker 1: and Braves. It's really tough when there's four strong teams
Speaker 1: to want to bet on the team winning the entire
Speaker 1: thing coming out of that division. So it's really difficult.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to the Brewers again. I'm kind of
Speaker 1: staying on them after what they did last year. I
Speaker 1: mentioned them in the win totals plus sixteen hundred for
Speaker 1: the World Series. I think that that offense is still
Speaker 1: good even with the regression that you're gonna put for
Speaker 1: some of the guys who broke out like Aguilar and
Speaker 1: yelloch Um, and I think that the rotation improving is
Speaker 1: going to make up for some of the bullpen regressing.
Speaker 1: So the Brewers are my favorite one, and then probably
Speaker 1: the Mets and Nets. I might pick my favorite between
Speaker 1: those two and put a little something on that if
Speaker 1: I were going to be in this market, but I'm
Speaker 1: like you, I'd rather not. There are other avenues where
Speaker 1: I can kind of get in and express my interest
Speaker 1: on these teams, besides putting a Futures World series. Pet Paul,
Speaker 1: I love you, Thank you. Man. Appreciated support for today's
Speaker 1: show has always comes from Bookmaker dot eu and Industry
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Speaker 1: onus of the three hundred dollars right now, and do
Speaker 1: not forget. As I mentioned on last podcast, to bracket
Speaker 1: contests this year. They're a sixty three team bracket with
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Speaker 1: this podcast now live from the Visa in studios in
Speaker 1: the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gill Alexander. It
Speaker 1: is Kill Alexander. Good morning to Everybody's series sext some
Speaker 1: channel to a four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app,
Speaker 1: Fubo TV. It is a numbers game right here where
Speaker 1: sports betting analytics live, actionable sports betting information. Matt Jones
Speaker 1: is here as well. Good morning, mateo, Hey mateo, who
Speaker 1: took a I want to let you know? Yeah, please,
Speaker 1: Yesterday I was a little distracted during the show. There's
Speaker 1: some stuff going on. I understand. Yes today, locked in,
Speaker 1: I'm ready to go. It's a different mateo, a different
Speaker 1: mateo turning over a new leaf. You are forgiven for
Speaker 1: being distracted. There was other stuff going on in the world.
Speaker 1: I understand, good stuff. I too may have been somewhat
Speaker 1: distracted with screens on here in the uh in the
Speaker 1: studio as as a crawl the old chiron for would
Speaker 1: would give highlights of some things that were happening at
Speaker 1: the hearings that had national interests. Not today though, Oh no,
Speaker 1: we're all about um two things. Bill Krackenburger coming up.
Speaker 1: Second hour. We always love when the crack man's in studio.
Speaker 1: Lord knows what we'll talk about, who knows. We'll do
Speaker 1: a little degenerate Olympics on Kyler Murray. We'll talk about
Speaker 1: what his measurements came back in. This is what our
Speaker 1: world has come to that we care about Kyler Murray's
Speaker 1: hand size, is weight, his height. It's important stuff, very
Speaker 1: important stuff, very important. An inch could make all the difference.
Speaker 1: And let me tell you, he just he just just
Speaker 1: draft stock, just went high and hire today. We'll do
Speaker 1: that Greg Peterson little instant offense, little college basketball picks
Speaker 1: in the second hour as well. He'll he'll just we'll
Speaker 1: sort of do a break and have like Greg Peterson
Speaker 1: for five minutes just spewing out college basketball picks. And
Speaker 1: I do think spewing is the correct verb when speaking
Speaker 1: of Greg Coops Peterson. We'll do that next hour. But first, Uh,
Speaker 1: he is our old time friend talking baseball with us
Speaker 1: all the time, and uh, we're gonna talk to him.
Speaker 1: We've We did a whole bunch of stuff with him already,
Speaker 1: season wins, futures. What else did we do? We did props,
Speaker 1: certain props. We'll have more props with him today. We'll
Speaker 1: do Cy Young Award, A L and n L which
Speaker 1: is released over at the Westgate. But we want to
Speaker 1: talk fantasy baseball for those who are in leagues and
Speaker 1: want to know a position by position breakdown pictures and
Speaker 1: then around the horn, ladies and gentlemen. He's our guy
Speaker 1: from fan Graphs, also the co host of the Sleeper
Speaker 1: in the Bust podcast, which is hosted over there at
Speaker 1: fan Grafts. Our buddy Paul Sport, Good morning, PAULI, Good
Speaker 1: morning Gale. How's it going. It's going very well. You
Speaker 1: don't mind also if in through through your appearance here,
Speaker 1: if we also do a is Rob Manfred crazy thread
Speaker 1: every once in a while, you know the answer is
Speaker 1: gonna be yes every time. But sure, let's let's let's
Speaker 1: go back and forth on that. All right, Let's start
Speaker 1: with one, which is what we were dealing with the
Speaker 1: other day, before we get into the other stuff. Rob
Speaker 1: Manfred uh decided the other day that Major League Baseball
Speaker 1: decided they didn't want people here in Nevada betting on
Speaker 1: preseason baseball games and a spring training baseball games. Actually
Speaker 1: extended it to other jurisdictions now as well. Uh, and
Speaker 1: we here in Nevada are like, uh, yeah, pick the
Speaker 1: sport with the lowest limits. Uh. First of all, it
Speaker 1: was only in Nevada, which made no sense that he
Speaker 1: was going after it. What in the world, like he
Speaker 1: came out of nowhere. Why does Rob Manfred care that
Speaker 1: people are betting on spring training baseball games? I don't know.
Speaker 1: And this this seems to be a kind of a
Speaker 1: constant with Rob where he gets his attention focused on
Speaker 1: the absolute wrong and dumbest things to try to, you know,
Speaker 1: for example, going to the picking up the pace of
Speaker 1: play and then and then instituting the intentional walk thing
Speaker 1: that doesn't do anything, that doesn't help it. So you're
Speaker 1: not addressing the problem, you know, if you're worried about
Speaker 1: any potential old corruption, which I don't think again with
Speaker 1: with with the with the what athletes make these days,
Speaker 1: there's just not that much potential for corruption and stuff.
Speaker 1: But going after spring training betting like it's such a
Speaker 1: nothing factor. I've really I really soured on Manfred as
Speaker 1: a commissioner, and I'm greatly concerned with him at the
Speaker 1: Helm for twenty one negotiations, um, because I just I
Speaker 1: don't trust his judgment right now. He's given me nothing
Speaker 1: to feel that his judgment is worth while. You know,
Speaker 1: he gave up the pitch clock thing, um, which I
Speaker 1: think was stupid too, because I think that's one of
Speaker 1: those things that people make a big deal about. And
Speaker 1: I know some of the old timer guys, um, you know,
Speaker 1: the top dogs usually come out and say stuff against it,
Speaker 1: like Sherzer and and Justin Berlander and type of guys
Speaker 1: like that, And I get it, you know, they're locked
Speaker 1: into something. I totally understand that. But they would barely
Speaker 1: notice it a week into the season. That's like how
Speaker 1: quickly it would be. I see it every year at
Speaker 1: the Arizona Fall League. I don't even notice it now,
Speaker 1: like it's not a thing I've seen anything now for
Speaker 1: the last two or three years at the Arizona Falling
Speaker 1: I think I've seen two balls and they're from the
Speaker 1: same guy, Justice Sheffield, and it was in the All
Speaker 1: Star Game, and I think maybe he was just taking
Speaker 1: his time a little bit to regroup and ended up
Speaker 1: ended up running out the clock twice. But it's a
Speaker 1: nothing factor, and so him giving that up to I
Speaker 1: just I don't know what the heck he's doing. I
Speaker 1: don't trust his judgment, and I'm nervous about the game
Speaker 1: with Manford at the Helm. Yeah, I I when he
Speaker 1: first appeared, I remember I was at the Sloan Sports
Speaker 1: Conference at the at M I T And by the way,
Speaker 1: shout out to the Sloan Sports Conference which begins tomorrow
Speaker 1: and goes through Saturday. They have stolen Matteo. They have
Speaker 1: stolen our hashtag a numbers game. So for the next
Speaker 1: two days everybody at the conference will be seeing our
Speaker 1: videos on this show. Thanks for the free pub you know,
Speaker 1: so thank you, Thank you, Daryl Morey. By the way,
Speaker 1: Darryl Mourray will also be rocking my one of those
Speaker 1: idiots who believes in an lytic shirts as well. Uh
Speaker 1: as well. So it's a little uh, it's a little
Speaker 1: You have a shirt that says that I heard the clip. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's for my buddy Tim Lawson. You want one of
Speaker 1: those shirts, we'll get it to you, of course I do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, Darryl Morrie, me and you, we're gonna start
Speaker 1: trend on this, all right, So let's start. Well, we'll
Speaker 1: continue with Rob Manford later because I do agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think he is approaching He'll never approach Goodell status,
Speaker 1: but he is going. He's going in the Bettman direction,
Speaker 1: away from Adam Silk. Yeah, away from him, Yeah yeah,
Speaker 1: way from Adams part of the spectrum. Although Adam Silver's
Speaker 1: gotta stop those players only broadcast. Let me just throw
Speaker 1: that in there, because those are all right. So let's
Speaker 1: start with starting pitchers, because this is where you made
Speaker 1: your Hey so many years ago, Paul used to passport
Speaker 1: right here from Fangraphs. Paul used to write this just
Speaker 1: unbelievably dense starting Pitchers guide before. I mean, what were
Speaker 1: you like eight years old, nine years old at that
Speaker 1: time when you wrote that? Guy, it's amazing, I'm old.
Speaker 1: That's the thing that you forgive is that you know
Speaker 1: I was in my twenties doing that because I'm third
Speaker 1: seven now, despite the fact that I don't necessarily look
Speaker 1: that that old, but yeah, I was doing that. I
Speaker 1: started on a message board, turned it into a PDF,
Speaker 1: ended up becoming a little something. Uh you know, it's
Speaker 1: how we met via that, and so starting picture guide
Speaker 1: always going to have a soft spot in my heart,
Speaker 1: but it owned the winter and so it's hard to
Speaker 1: do that with a full time gig. And so that's
Speaker 1: the main reason that it has gone by the way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was too much. I understand. Now you actually have
Speaker 1: employments as though there you can't do it. You can't
Speaker 1: do everything anymore. But now the one thing you you
Speaker 1: are great at here is still. We're gonna break down
Speaker 1: fantasy positions for league long players. Now, how do you
Speaker 1: do this? Because there's different formats in leagues? Do you
Speaker 1: want to do it by tier? How? I leave it
Speaker 1: to you? Yeah, I mean so usually I focus on
Speaker 1: rodo rotissary, the five five by five categories. Um, I know,
Speaker 1: I've been wit points leagues. The differences aren't that stark
Speaker 1: that that one can't work for the other. But I
Speaker 1: think the still roto is more popular. So we can go, uh,
Speaker 1: we we can go with that as a format, and
Speaker 1: then we can go however you want, Like, are you
Speaker 1: looking for some for some sleepers? You want to run
Speaker 1: down the entire obviously we can't go down a hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty pictures. What do you want to do? I
Speaker 1: can definitely cater to what you've got here. I got
Speaker 1: my list ready to go. Let's do it this way.
Speaker 1: Let's just go overachievers and underachievers, So overvalued and undervalued,
Speaker 1: if you will. So let's start with the pictures. And
Speaker 1: I guess we haven't been that far into any draft
Speaker 1: season where we can really get an exceptional average draft
Speaker 1: position at this point. You'd be surprised. You would be surprised.
Speaker 1: The National Fantasy Baseball Championships been running leagues all winter,
Speaker 1: and they're definitely uh, there's definitely enough data that I
Speaker 1: can look at and and have some some real thoughts
Speaker 1: on that and in fact, what I'll even do. Just
Speaker 1: since February one, they've got enough data that I can
Speaker 1: kind of look here and uh and and make some judgments.
Speaker 1: So we got we got enough data for that. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, So let's do the overvalued starting pitchers right
Speaker 1: now nineteen fantasy baseball drafts, all right. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: put too kind of off to the side, because they're
Speaker 1: their prices are constantly evolving, and they could they can
Speaker 1: actually start to push down towards under value. And obviously,
Speaker 1: with all the Kershawn news, if you're gonna look at
Speaker 1: his a DP right now, you're gonna say, oh, that's
Speaker 1: too high, But of course it was without the benefit
Speaker 1: of all the bad news and so um, you know,
Speaker 1: he's definitely going to come down and it's gonna be
Speaker 1: interesting to kind of see where he lands. Like I said,
Speaker 1: he could actually shift into a value. I was among
Speaker 1: those who are saying, stay on the Kershaw train. He's
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw. Then we got this bad news to open
Speaker 1: spring and it's it's it's a little less interesting, uh,
Speaker 1: to stay on that bandwagon. But if the price gets
Speaker 1: to a certain point, you better believe that I'm gonna
Speaker 1: buy Clayton Kershaw at a discount. Madison Bumgarner same sort
Speaker 1: of deal where he's kind of fluctuating wildly. So those
Speaker 1: two are kind of off to the side. A few
Speaker 1: guys that I don't really like, Uh what include I'm
Speaker 1: a little bit nervous on Trevor Bauer, and I feel
Speaker 1: bad because I'm on a Stat's oriented. It's funny, by
Speaker 1: the way, I'm gonna contradict myself down the line, just
Speaker 1: a little heads up there, but uh, I'm a little
Speaker 1: I'm the Stat's Oriented show to say that it's a
Speaker 1: bit of a gut feel. And what it is with
Speaker 1: Bauer is that he's so good at kind of figuring
Speaker 1: things out and tinkering that I'm worried that he out
Speaker 1: tinkers himself at some point during the season and kind
Speaker 1: of loses loses the greatness that we saw this past year.
Speaker 1: It was his first great year. He was short by it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not he He's always been that way though, hasn't he?
Speaker 1: Like even didn't that sort of get him run out
Speaker 1: of Arizona? That he was like that and he was
Speaker 1: sort of uncoachable to them exactly, And that's why he
Speaker 1: took so long to break out, I think, because he
Speaker 1: would just kind of guardrail to guardrail, tinker things. And
Speaker 1: he was a decent picture, perfectly capable, like number four
Speaker 1: starter for several years, and then last year had the
Speaker 1: ace turn. So I'm just a little worried that he
Speaker 1: might eight push back to like a you know, a
Speaker 1: quality three R A and one tip Like there's nothing
Speaker 1: wrong with that. But he is the ninth pitcher off
Speaker 1: the board. He's a top thirty pick, and so that's
Speaker 1: where that concern. It's not a bust concern, it's a
Speaker 1: you're drafting an ace and getting a number three type
Speaker 1: of deal. So I got a little bit of concern
Speaker 1: with Trevor Bauer. And again, it's not a great statistical thing.
Speaker 1: It's more of a gut thing. Um z Granky is one.
Speaker 1: It's like it's a hot potato. I know he comes
Speaker 1: in the spring every year throwing like seventy one on
Speaker 1: his fastball and everyone breaks out and then he ends
Speaker 1: up doing his thing. Um, I just don't want to
Speaker 1: be holding that hot potato. Right, I've gotten enough great
Speaker 1: that Granky seasons of my own. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: prices over the top as the pitcher at sixty eight
Speaker 1: pick like, it's that's not so egregious that I think
Speaker 1: someone's crazy for doing it, But there's so many pictures
Speaker 1: around him that I'd rather have that. Like I said,
Speaker 1: it's the hot potato. You hang onto this one because
Speaker 1: it is going to come down at some point, and
Speaker 1: I just don't want to be left holding the bag
Speaker 1: on Zac Grinky understood. So again, Paulie not saying these
Speaker 1: guys are bad at baseball, just saying they're being overdrafted. Currently,
Speaker 1: Trevor Bauer Zach Grinky for the reasons stated, how about
Speaker 1: how about a couple. I mean, you may have some
Speaker 1: more names on the overside. If you want to, you
Speaker 1: can just listen. But how about some under drafted players,
Speaker 1: players that are undervalued. Yeah, the under the unders where
Speaker 1: where I love to live, and so I'll definitely get
Speaker 1: in on some of that. I like Nathan Levaldi. I
Speaker 1: really like the changes that he made last year. That
Speaker 1: cutter was absolutely amazing. And one of the big differences
Speaker 1: in fantasy baseball these days is that with so few
Speaker 1: guys actually going two hundred innings, somebody like a Nathan Levaldi,
Speaker 1: who you can really only plan for about a hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty innings. He might get more, but you can't
Speaker 1: plan for that. You can't think get into your projections.
Speaker 1: But that's okay because so many guys kind of live
Speaker 1: in the one, twenty two, one seventy range that a
Speaker 1: really sharp a hundred and twenty five minutes from Nathan
Speaker 1: Eovaldi could be like a top thirties starter and he's
Speaker 1: going off the board at like fiftie among starters. Do
Speaker 1: you worry that he ends up being a closer in Boston? Well,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what if he became a closer for fantasy,
Speaker 1: that wouldn't be a problem. If he became a middle reliever,
Speaker 1: more of a Josh Hayter type, that would be a
Speaker 1: little bit of an issue, but even that would still
Speaker 1: be usable. Again, with the way the game is going.
Speaker 1: Back in like five years ago, even a Josh Hayter
Speaker 1: as good as he was would be available on the
Speaker 1: waiver wire in some leagues because he wasn't getting saves,
Speaker 1: and like a middle reliever like that just wasn't that
Speaker 1: valuable because so many starters were out there getting a
Speaker 1: d eighty puts innings. Nowadays, that's valuable. So I think
Speaker 1: whatever role they put the evolve the in he can
Speaker 1: be useful. I'd almost almost perform as a closer because
Speaker 1: he would be so devastating and racking up saves, and
Speaker 1: most leagues still use saves, So I will take it
Speaker 1: whatever hybrid role they want to use for him. I'm
Speaker 1: in Another one I really like is Joe Musgrove out
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh. Really impressive. You know, when that Garrett Coltrane happened,
Speaker 1: I thought it was a win win deal. I was really,
Speaker 1: really really excited about what Cole could do with Houston,
Speaker 1: and he of course, was amazing, and I thought they
Speaker 1: did not get ripped off for him though. Joe Musgrove
Speaker 1: is a really strong picture and he showed a lot
Speaker 1: of it last year. The four oh six c r
Speaker 1: A might might be misleading folks into thinking that he
Speaker 1: wasn't that good, but he was. He had a one
Speaker 1: eighteen whip and and really good strikeout in walk ratio.
Speaker 1: So I think Joe Musgrove can have a big breakout
Speaker 1: season this year. I really like what he's up to.
Speaker 1: Jimmy Nelson on the bounce back. He missed all of
Speaker 1: last year with a shoulder injury. He's gonna come back strong.
Speaker 1: I really really like what he did in seventeen. And
Speaker 1: then Annibal Sanchez, the grandpa who busted out that cutter
Speaker 1: last year and was dominant. Do not sleep on him.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be ready to and again he's gonna come
Speaker 1: back from what he did last year and with Washington. Uh,
Speaker 1: he did it with Atlanta. He's gonna be with Washington
Speaker 1: this year. But Annibal Sanchez is going to be good
Speaker 1: and he's free in Fantasy League. These are such interesting
Speaker 1: names because Jimmy Nelson, it's like the proverbial this is
Speaker 1: the year where he bounces back, right, This is the
Speaker 1: year that you get some Jimmy Nelson. And then in
Speaker 1: the case of Sanchez, man did he bought them out right?
Speaker 1: Like he was dreadful. At one point he was allowing
Speaker 1: Homer's at just such an amazing clip. I mean, you
Speaker 1: and I would have gone yard on him. It was crazy.
Speaker 1: The thing of it was, and you know he was
Speaker 1: a tiger, so I watched him front and center. The
Speaker 1: thing of it was, he still kind of had his
Speaker 1: strikeout and walk ratio. We're doing pretty well. It's just
Speaker 1: that anytime someone got on it was a two or
Speaker 1: three run Homer coming up. And so as the r
Speaker 1: A was just through the roof, well, he cut the
Speaker 1: home runs and a big part of it was getting
Speaker 1: that cutter last year. And so again I don't expect
Speaker 1: the two three r A. He was amazing last year,
Speaker 1: but give him like a three sixty and he's still
Speaker 1: worth where he's going. I mean, Annibale Sanchez is so
Speaker 1: cheap because nobody wants the old guy, and he's like
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixtieth overall pick in fantasy this year.
Speaker 1: Talking over valued and undervalued pictures and Fantasy Leagues of
Speaker 1: Baseball with Paul Sport from fan Graphs. By the way,
Speaker 1: those who were watching at UH Visa dot Com, Visa
Speaker 1: and app and Foobo TV, you'll see blue shaded blue
Speaker 1: highlighted UH names here on Pauli's list of the top pitchers.
Speaker 1: What those did note Paul help me out here is
Speaker 1: that is where a tear break. It does the tear
Speaker 1: break happen right after the blue are on the blue?
Speaker 1: You know, people ask me that, and I was like,
Speaker 1: I I should have made clear what which it was.
Speaker 1: It starts the new tier, and I will I'm gonna
Speaker 1: do my March update soon and I will make that
Speaker 1: more distinct because I was like, yeah, that's that's a
Speaker 1: that's a good question there. So like Blake Snell starts
Speaker 1: the second tier, Steven Strasburg starts the third tier. I see,
Speaker 1: So sheers are the Graham, Sale, Verlander, Cole Klueber, Nolah
Speaker 1: Syndergard and then next tier Snell, Kershaw or so forth. Um,
Speaker 1: let me ask you about one guy. Let me cherry
Speaker 1: pick a guy. I'm sure there's no there's no secret
Speaker 1: on you say cokucha in Seattle, but where do you
Speaker 1: say couch? But but where does he get where does where?
Speaker 1: Is it appropriate to draft him? And it's appropriate to
Speaker 1: draft him where he's going right now, because he's going
Speaker 1: at a pretty good value. The hund pick off the board.
Speaker 1: He's around the pitcher and the way this average draft
Speaker 1: position works is that it combines starters and relievers. So
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly where he's going among starters here.
Speaker 1: They don't they don't delineate, unfortunately, but he's the sixty
Speaker 1: four pitcher taken. That's a pretty good bargain right there.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't even think it's that big of
Speaker 1: a gamble, like when you're getting somebody at past pick
Speaker 1: one fifty um that they can be a bigger gamble
Speaker 1: and it's not going to cost you too much if
Speaker 1: they go by the wayside. But I really like Cokuchi.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of intrigued by what he can do. I
Speaker 1: think he's going to be a solid, sort of mid
Speaker 1: rotation type. He's not going to be amazing for fantasy
Speaker 1: because he is going to be on that schedule where
Speaker 1: he's pitching every sixth day so that the volume will
Speaker 1: be capped, but his per inning performance could be really good.
Speaker 1: And of course he had a nice spring training start.
Speaker 1: Joey Vado was speaking highly of of what he was
Speaker 1: able to do with the is curveball and things like that. Obviously,
Speaker 1: that's one spring training start. Don't go crazy on that.
Speaker 1: But Kakouchi is a nice, solid mid rotation guy for
Speaker 1: your fantasy team for sure. All right, give me a
Speaker 1: sleeper too here then before we get off pitch. All right, So,
Speaker 1: as far as going going deep on some folks, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna stick with Milwaukee a little bit here and go
Speaker 1: with Brandon Woodrift. He and Corbin Burns are are fighting
Speaker 1: it out a bit for for a role. I'll take
Speaker 1: whoever wins. To be quite honest, I'm I'm a Brandon
Speaker 1: Woodrift guy. But if if Corbin Burns happens to win
Speaker 1: that spot, sign me up. I would. I would have
Speaker 1: been prepared to come on here and talk up the
Speaker 1: virtues of of gambling on like a Colin McKee or
Speaker 1: Brad Peacock. But Colin mc kee himself got a little
Speaker 1: bit nicked up, as did Joshua James, which opened the
Speaker 1: door for Peacock, and he won't be so sneaky anymore.
Speaker 1: People will be going crazy for him. So that one's
Speaker 1: not as as sharp as it was, say you know
Speaker 1: too three days ago. I also like another one that's
Speaker 1: more of a gamble. He doesn't have the role right now,
Speaker 1: but Seth Lugo a monster with the mess. And there's
Speaker 1: no universe where I'm gonna believe that that Jason Vargas
Speaker 1: is going to keep him out of the rotation all year.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm just not willing to believe that. And
Speaker 1: another older one that you know, everyone knows the name,
Speaker 1: but they've probably forgotten Jeff some marsha keep a close
Speaker 1: eye on him, and if he comes back, if we
Speaker 1: get all the good progress reports of health and he's
Speaker 1: not missing uh spring training stars or falling short of
Speaker 1: you know, if they say he's supposed to come out
Speaker 1: and do fifty pitches and he only does twenty or
Speaker 1: things like that, that's a concern. But if he's hitting
Speaker 1: all the targets that he's supposed to, I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna come back and be strong. Because the fantasy community
Speaker 1: has just ditched him. He's the one hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: first pitcher off the board picked three fifty six. That
Speaker 1: is a free pick up, that is an afterthought and
Speaker 1: I absolutely uh think he can bounce back and be
Speaker 1: strong one more. By the way, sorry, I gotta get
Speaker 1: in ross stripling. But similar to Peacock, he's a little
Speaker 1: bit more known now because of Kershaw's injury. Everyone's back
Speaker 1: on the stripling train. But I want to say that
Speaker 1: I was out in front center on it because if
Speaker 1: you look on those rankings, he's ranked thirty six, and
Speaker 1: nobody had Ross stripling that high. So I was first
Speaker 1: on Ross Stripling. I'm gonna pat myself on the back. There.
Speaker 1: You got him thirty six there. Wow. Yeah, So Marja,
Speaker 1: from your lips to God. As my mother would say,
Speaker 1: for Giants fans, they would love for that manifest for
Speaker 1: Jeff some Margin, the shark in San Francisco who had
Speaker 1: a ridiculous strikeout to uh walk rate two seasons ago
Speaker 1: and then stripling. I actually held a three to one
Speaker 1: young ticket on him last year at one point, just
Speaker 1: on a flyer, just in case. He was pitching so well,
Speaker 1: and and then in the second half, you know, just
Speaker 1: he didn't quite he wasn't quite able to hold up.
Speaker 1: But by the way, he's a great example what I'm
Speaker 1: talking about about a hundred and twenty two innings of
Speaker 1: excellence can be so fantasy valuable. I think he would
Speaker 1: ended up as a top twenty pitcher, not top twenty.
Speaker 1: I think he was top eight. I think he was
Speaker 1: like ninth last year, So we'll call it top thirty,
Speaker 1: but only with a hundred and twenty winnings. That shows
Speaker 1: you that you just don't need the volume these days.
Speaker 1: And I like him to get his shots this year
Speaker 1: because listen, even without Kershaw's injury, you know Rich Hills
Speaker 1: not going more than a hundred and thirty, Young jen Ryu,
Speaker 1: Kenta Maeda, they're always getting hurt or having their innings protected.
Speaker 1: Strippling is going to get his opportunities, and I loved
Speaker 1: what he did last year, and so that's why I'm
Speaker 1: so bullish on him. You don't have to take him
Speaker 1: as the thirty six pitcher. These rankings that aren't really
Speaker 1: a draft sheet. It's more of a how I like them,
Speaker 1: so you kind of mixed it with the average draft
Speaker 1: position and then you figure out where to take them. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and Strippling much less of a chance that will go
Speaker 1: to the pen this year for all the reasons stated,
Speaker 1: because he was shipped to the pen last year at
Speaker 1: some point as well. We'll come back, We'll get Paul's opinions.
Speaker 1: We'll shift it to betting, get Paul's opinions on A
Speaker 1: L and n L say Young Award props that are
Speaker 1: just out at the West Gate, and then we'll shift
Speaker 1: to infield around the horn and outfield as well, Fantasy
Speaker 1: baseball with PAULI. Bill Crackenberger on deck as well. It's
Speaker 1: a numbers game right here at VESTA. Now back to
Speaker 1: a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live
Speaker 1: from our vs IN studios in Las Vegas. Back on
Speaker 1: the numbers game with Paul Spoor from Fan Graphs, talking
Speaker 1: fantasy baseball. Uh and uh, let's do a little betting
Speaker 1: here and El say Young, Al say Young, Rob Manfred
Speaker 1: is Rob Manfred Crazy? Part two, PAULI, the Atlantic League
Speaker 1: will become a testing ground for new rules and tweaks
Speaker 1: for its Major League Baseball brethren. This from the New
Speaker 1: York Post one of the considered things moving the mound back,
Speaker 1: moving it back further. What the hell fallI are either?
Speaker 1: Paulli is speechless, I'm here all right? What do you
Speaker 1: think about that? He? No, No, we couldn't. Now we're
Speaker 1: now we can what what in the world. Okay, I'm
Speaker 1: going to support him a little bit on this one.
Speaker 1: I don't hate it because of where it's being done.
Speaker 1: Right in the Atlantic League. You know, you gotta test
Speaker 1: these things out somewhere, right. It's a lot better than
Speaker 1: doing it and say triple a um or or having
Speaker 1: forbid the majors too. So you've got to try these
Speaker 1: things out somewhere. We have far too many strikeouts right now, right,
Speaker 1: plain and simple. It's become a three true outcome gaming
Speaker 1: for those who don't know what that is. That means strikeout,
Speaker 1: home run, and walk. Those are the three true skill
Speaker 1: based outcomes. A single can be flukey, hex o can double,
Speaker 1: and almost all triples have some measure of fluke to them.
Speaker 1: So that's why they call them the three true outcomes.
Speaker 1: And it becomes too much of that, and that's part
Speaker 1: of what drives the pace down. The ball isn't in play.
Speaker 1: We don't have a lot of options for what we
Speaker 1: can do to kind of fix that because we can't
Speaker 1: make pictures throw slower, and part of it is the
Speaker 1: v low. Moving the mound back a little bit could
Speaker 1: change it. Now. I think I would do more of
Speaker 1: lowering the mound, that would be what happened to the
Speaker 1: oldest raising or lowering the mound. That that would be smarter,
Speaker 1: because I do wonder all the unintended consequences of perhaps
Speaker 1: moving it back, maybe with injuries or what. I don't know.
Speaker 1: But it's an independent league. I think that's an interesting
Speaker 1: testing ground. So I'm gonna give him credit for where
Speaker 1: he's doing it, not so much everything that he is doing,
Speaker 1: but I'm okay with trying this stuff out in the
Speaker 1: independent league and a well and a well uh well
Speaker 1: regarded one to right. It's not just it's not nothing baseball.
Speaker 1: We know a handful of those teams. Guys have gone
Speaker 1: through the Long Island Ducks, Sugar Land Skeeters, etcetera. So
Speaker 1: I don't hate this so much for rob Manfreend. So
Speaker 1: I'll give theim a little bit of a check mark
Speaker 1: here after hammering him in the last segment. Well, I
Speaker 1: I think it's a hair brained scheme. I think you're right.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's good that he's doing it in the
Speaker 1: league that's not the majors. But good lord, if this
Speaker 1: ever were to come to the major leagues, every stat
Speaker 1: we've ever known is done, done, nothing matters, right right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: So that's I mean, you're effectively starting a new sport
Speaker 1: from scratch. It's like, and really, this is best comparison
Speaker 1: off the top of my head. Let's just raise the
Speaker 1: rims to eleven feet. Yeah, and let's just you know,
Speaker 1: play basketball different way than we ever have before. Anyway,
Speaker 1: exactly inches has been perfect. Ninety feet. It's amazing how
Speaker 1: perfect ninety feet is to deliver enough close plays and
Speaker 1: give the routine out. It's like, I agree with you
Speaker 1: on that. I think raising and lowering the mound is
Speaker 1: the right way to go as opposed to moving it back.
Speaker 1: But I am interested to see the results here at
Speaker 1: least let's do before we get off pitching. Then here,
Speaker 1: So the west Gate posted a l SI Young Award
Speaker 1: odds and uh, this is a lot more of a
Speaker 1: free for all than it is in the National League.
Speaker 1: At the top of the American League. Corey Kluber still
Speaker 1: still a member of the tribe PAULI never never moved
Speaker 1: plus three fIF Yeah, I thought it was gonna be
Speaker 1: a Dodger at one point. Nope, Chris Sale your doppelganger
Speaker 1: four to one. Luis Severino with the Yankees got a
Speaker 1: big extension. He's at seven to one, and then everybody
Speaker 1: in double digits. Verlander and Carrasco both at twelve to one,
Speaker 1: and on down the line, the aforementioned Garrett Cole fifteen
Speaker 1: to one, and you see the rest of the names. Um,
Speaker 1: Trevor Bower one. What do you like here? Yeah, if
Speaker 1: I'm trying to like not just go hard on the favorites,
Speaker 1: which sale would probably be my favorite among the single
Speaker 1: digit one? Berlander's up there, for sure, he has. I'm
Speaker 1: a long time for anyone who's been hearing my spots
Speaker 1: with you on the podcast dating until now knows I
Speaker 1: love Borlanders, So I'll get that token mentioned in there.
Speaker 1: But for me, it really starts with Garrett Cole. I
Speaker 1: talked about how much I loved what he did last
Speaker 1: year with Houston. He was a cy young contender, without
Speaker 1: a doubt. I think you can actually build on that.
Speaker 1: I know, you know the smartest thing to do statistically
Speaker 1: is to peel back and put some regression on what
Speaker 1: he did. But you look at everything that Garrett Cole
Speaker 1: did and the way his arsenal works, and I just
Speaker 1: don't really see where the regression comes. So I feel
Speaker 1: like he's gonna put up another amazing season and actually
Speaker 1: be in contention for the cy Young And here's where
Speaker 1: my contradictory play comes is because I am gonna say
Speaker 1: Bower as a consideration. So while I am concerned with
Speaker 1: him in fantasy because he's the night picture of the board,
Speaker 1: twenty one is actually a little bit of appealing. So
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a hedge there that if
Speaker 1: I'm wrong, because it is not some very strong statistical
Speaker 1: case that I have against and and if he is
Speaker 1: going to be this guy that we saw last year
Speaker 1: and not you know, fall victim to a batted ball
Speaker 1: that that cuts him out and only allows him to
Speaker 1: have a hundred thirty five minutes. If he does this
Speaker 1: for a full to tent, he's the workhorse type two.
Speaker 1: I think pitching well and and being efficient, I think
Speaker 1: Bauer can push the two twenty type, the old school
Speaker 1: type of numbers there. So at twenty it becomes a
Speaker 1: little bit more appealing. So that's where my contradictory statement is.
Speaker 1: And then a little bit on my long shot, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go Blake China the reliever because I'm looking and
Speaker 1: I just didn't see a whole lot that I loved on.
Speaker 1: On the long shot, I wanted to bring a long
Speaker 1: shot for each somebody in the uh the plus ten
Speaker 1: thousand or or later, and I just didn't see a lot.
Speaker 1: You know, Cokuchi, I was glad you brought him up
Speaker 1: because he's somebody I considered. But like I said, the
Speaker 1: volume is gonna be too tough with him, Brent Honeywell
Speaker 1: maybe next year that's something I'd be interested in. And
Speaker 1: just a lot of these other guys have too many
Speaker 1: flaws that I can't get over, whereas Blake tryin. And
Speaker 1: I mean, if he does the kind of amazing stuff
Speaker 1: that we saw last year, which is going to be hard,
Speaker 1: but a point seventy eight r a a point eight
Speaker 1: three whip, if he's amazing again, he was already a
Speaker 1: down ballot guy. If the rest of the pool just
Speaker 1: kind of clusters and opens the door for a reliever,
Speaker 1: he could be the guy. So that's my long shot there,
Speaker 1: and an emphasis heavy emphasis on long shot, But those
Speaker 1: are my al guys. Blake trying in three hundred to
Speaker 1: one for the American League, cy Young National League, same story,
Speaker 1: although this is obviously more top heavy, not surprisingly sures
Speaker 1: are plus two fifty d gram plus three fifty the
Speaker 1: reigning Cy Young Cham Aaron Nola for the Phillies at
Speaker 1: seven to one, and then everybody else in double digits.
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw still getting some love at twelve to one.
Speaker 1: Do not do that. Move that down? Yeah, don't take
Speaker 1: out to move move that one way down before I
Speaker 1: would take a shot on that one at this point,
Speaker 1: I actually found more appealing options here as far as
Speaker 1: UH feeling confident about some of the longer odds that
Speaker 1: I was taking my my cold camp here would be
Speaker 1: Noah Syndergard. Absolutely loved him. We still haven't seen the
Speaker 1: best out of him. Fifteen to one. That's kind of
Speaker 1: an easy one. I would definitely get in on that.
Speaker 1: I mean, he has arguably the best stuff in baseball
Speaker 1: playing and simple now it's in the guard as an
Speaker 1: absolute monster. We haven't seen that full two any season yet.
Speaker 1: Last year it was an index finger issue and hand
Speaker 1: foot mouth disease like so met for those injuries. So
Speaker 1: he just stays healthy. We're getting two hundred plus innings
Speaker 1: of just amazing baseball, and then I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: two uh pirates that I absolutely love this year one.
Speaker 1: I already mentioned Jamison town is one of them, and uh,
Speaker 1: I think he's a total monster. He had a slider
Speaker 1: last year that really took off in the second half,
Speaker 1: and he's gonna have gonna have it from day one
Speaker 1: this year. I think it's gonna make him a bit
Speaker 1: more of a strikeout guy while not costing him efficiency.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons he doesn't get a lot of
Speaker 1: strikeouts in previous years is it didn't want to rob
Speaker 1: him of his efficiency. He didn't want to build up,
Speaker 1: you know, six seven, eight pitch at bats just to
Speaker 1: get strikeouts. I can get you out in three pitches,
Speaker 1: three four pitches. Why wouldn't I. This slider really amped
Speaker 1: his other stuff and was a good pitch on its own.
Speaker 1: So fifty two one for Jamison ty On. Definitely like him.
Speaker 1: And then my my long shot here, hundred to one.
Speaker 1: Joe Musgrove. I already told you what I liked about him.
Speaker 1: What I will say is I was I did this
Speaker 1: recent piece where I was kind of looking at last
Speaker 1: year's guys and trying to find this year's version of them,
Speaker 1: and I was looking for a this year Joe this
Speaker 1: year Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove was who I landed on. Now,
Speaker 1: I understand that might not jive when you kind of
Speaker 1: think about it, But then I looked at what Snell
Speaker 1: had done through seventeen and what Musgrove has done to
Speaker 1: his day, you know, through so far, and they were
Speaker 1: pretty deadlocked. In fact, Musgrove's walk great was much better.
Speaker 1: It was half what Snell did and and it's strikeout
Speaker 1: rate was only one percent below twenty one. So I
Speaker 1: know Snells known as this big strikeout guy in must
Speaker 1: Grove isn't really, but it shows you that these guys
Speaker 1: can jump. When they get going, the strikeouts follow. So
Speaker 1: I really love Joe must Grove and so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: put him as my long shot there too, So thor
Speaker 1: tywn and must grow and must grow if you're seeing
Speaker 1: at what number right now? I got a hundred here? Yeah,
Speaker 1: um must grow. Could Joe Musgrove be this year's Blake's
Speaker 1: new Interesting? Interesting? And no no love for Bueller, no
Speaker 1: love for Buller at Corbin at twenty one? Nothing there
Speaker 1: that that I do love Bueller, But I think the
Speaker 1: markets already kind of set that and and really kind
Speaker 1: of robbed out of any sort of value there to
Speaker 1: where it just kind of has to perform. And so
Speaker 1: you know the same thing in fantasy, he's going really high.
Speaker 1: There's a big playoff fantasy tacks. I call it when
Speaker 1: a guy just beasts out on the national stage. So
Speaker 1: I mean, he's kind of already established as an ace,
Speaker 1: even though he has a hundred and forty five Major
Speaker 1: League inunings under his spells. So I didn't really like that.
Speaker 1: And I don't like guys in the first year of
Speaker 1: a big contract pictures specifically, not so much for hitters,
Speaker 1: but picture I really just stay away from them in
Speaker 1: fantasy and something like this kind of bat So I
Speaker 1: I'm not anti Corbin, but I'm just laying off this year.
Speaker 1: I want to see how he adjusts to Washington, and
Speaker 1: then maybe next year we jumped back in. Okay, Paul,
Speaker 1: stick around. When when we come back, I'm gonna stay
Speaker 1: completely out of your way. We're gonna go catch her.
Speaker 1: We're gonna go all around the horn here catch her
Speaker 1: first second, short third and outfield. Uh. Underachievers or excuse me, undervalued,
Speaker 1: overvalued rapid fire coming back with Paul Sport from fag
Speaker 1: Graphs right here on the numbers game at Feasta. Now
Speaker 1: back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Don't forget Greg Peterson coming up on the show as
Speaker 1: well with Bill Crackenburg a little uh, we'll do a
Speaker 1: little uh college basketball tonight, and the big Dances around
Speaker 1: the corner. Of course, prop Swap wants it to be
Speaker 1: your most profitable tournament yet. Props wapp a marketplace where
Speaker 1: you can buy and sell active sports bets. Think of
Speaker 1: it like a stock market, if you will, but for
Speaker 1: betting tickets by low on a team with long odds
Speaker 1: and then sell high for big profit. Last year, Larry
Speaker 1: Has bet ten dollars on Loyola and then Bam sold
Speaker 1: it for a thousand dollars four games later as they
Speaker 1: got to the final four. As Brent says, cashing tickets
Speaker 1: is what it's all about. So at prop Swap, turn
Speaker 1: your tickets into cash. Go to prop swap dot com
Speaker 1: or download the prop swap app today. All right. Paul
Speaker 1: sport fan Graphs hosted the Sleeper in the Bus podcast
Speaker 1: as well. Really can find him everywhere in the baseball universe.
Speaker 1: Let's go Catchers, overvalued, undervalued, go alright, so overvalue, there's
Speaker 1: really not that many. It's a it's a weird pool
Speaker 1: this year. It's pretty crappy, to be quite honest. So
Speaker 1: the two studs at the top I think are being drafted. Fine.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say MIKEO though, because I just don't like
Speaker 1: Mike Sanino. Planeman simple. He trought me a bet he
Speaker 1: inexplicably hit. I suckered someone into betting on his batting
Speaker 1: average one year that he wouldn't hit over two thirty,
Speaker 1: and that year he inexplicably hit two fifty. Alp forever.
Speaker 1: Dislike Mike Sanino, So don't draft minalt Care's pretty undervalued, Yeah, superrational,
Speaker 1: super logical, undervalued. I like Danny Jansen with Toronto, with
Speaker 1: Russell Martin out of there. He's really sharp. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna get the full time playing time. He looks
Speaker 1: really good. And Austin Barnes, I'm I'm kind of buying
Speaker 1: him back in he was a disaster. I kind of
Speaker 1: was excited about him. I playoff tax him a few
Speaker 1: years ago after he had a nice little October and
Speaker 1: it definitely didn't work. He's sound, he's sunk, completely. Now
Speaker 1: he is an afterthought at catcher, but I like him
Speaker 1: to bounce back there. I don't think Russell Martin is
Speaker 1: going to take the job from him. Uh do you
Speaker 1: want to have you want to say something about them
Speaker 1: and then go to the next position, or just jump
Speaker 1: right now? Go ahead, first base? Go ahead, all right,
Speaker 1: first base. Joey Gallo overvalued. Listen. I get that he
Speaker 1: hits forty homers, but he does it with a like
Speaker 1: a two oh five average, And so I can get
Speaker 1: my undervalued guys who might not hit forty, they might
Speaker 1: only hit thirty two, thirty three. But I'll take the
Speaker 1: seven homer tradeoff for thirty five plus points of batting average.
Speaker 1: And that would be Matt Olson, who I absolutely love
Speaker 1: him by the way I sneaked hit. Believe he can
Speaker 1: hit forty plus homers this year. In fact, I think
Speaker 1: I talked about him on the home run So I
Speaker 1: love mad Olson. And then Ryan O'Hearn I actually see
Speaker 1: us kind of a a baby Matt Olson out there
Speaker 1: in Kansas City, not getting a whole lot of attention.
Speaker 1: He's really interesting too. So Gallo fade Olsen O'Hearn by,
Speaker 1: and then at second base, overvalued hobby by is and
Speaker 1: this is one of those who is similar to what
Speaker 1: I was talking about earlier with like a Bower. It's
Speaker 1: not that I think Bias is going to be a
Speaker 1: complete trash bag. He has three positions in fantasy, which
Speaker 1: is great, second, short, and third, so that's always valuable.
Speaker 1: And he's gonna be good. He's gonna hit you some
Speaker 1: power and steal you some bass. I just don't know
Speaker 1: that he's worth the seventeenth pick this year. I just
Speaker 1: I worry about the volatility of his plate approach, so
Speaker 1: I got him a little bit overvalued. I love and
Speaker 1: everyone does, but his price doesn't quite reflected yet. I
Speaker 1: love Daniel Murphy and Colorado. Never has a park and
Speaker 1: player been so perfectly matched. He could hit three fifty
Speaker 1: this year, like that's actually realistically possible. And then for
Speaker 1: a deeper one, I'll go with Catel Marte, and I'm
Speaker 1: a recent Marte convert. I was never really a big
Speaker 1: fan until with some offseason research on his previous season. Here. Now,
Speaker 1: the one thing is he's always been known or perceived
Speaker 1: as some big stolen base guy, and he's never really
Speaker 1: done that. That's why I haven't liked him. I'm like,
Speaker 1: why do people keep projecting him for Steels. I'm actually
Speaker 1: more intrigued by his power boost from last year and
Speaker 1: what he was able to do there. He's going to
Speaker 1: play full time with with some of the trains that
Speaker 1: move that they've done with Pollock Free Signing and Goldie Gone.
Speaker 1: So I think Marte can tell Marte is gonna get
Speaker 1: a full time playing playing role, and I think he
Speaker 1: can go with twenty plus homers and then maybe run
Speaker 1: a little bit. I mean, he's had eleven in the
Speaker 1: season before. If he can get up to fifteen, if
Speaker 1: you're talking with a two sixty five average, that's really
Speaker 1: valuab when he qualifies the second In short, so, I
Speaker 1: like to tell Marte of my three positions there, I'm
Speaker 1: glad you brought up Daniel Murphy because obviously the move
Speaker 1: to Cours is just everything. You haven't listed fourth here
Speaker 1: and understandably so behind Al two B Buiez in Maryfield.
Speaker 1: But Daniel Murphy and Colorado could be a big blow
Speaker 1: up kind of thing. It's the same reason why probably
Speaker 1: Eronado should be your number one third baseman in perpetuity
Speaker 1: right in Colorado. The one question I would ask you
Speaker 1: on that second base list. If you could throw that
Speaker 1: up one more time. Matteo is Minnesota, and I just
Speaker 1: relate this to football. Uh. Sometimes in football there's a
Speaker 1: quirk where you can use somebody at one position even
Speaker 1: though he's actually playing another. Marwin Gonzalez going to Minnesota. Uh, platooning.
Speaker 1: I don't have platooning is the right word here with
Speaker 1: Jonathan School because I don't think that's what's gonna end
Speaker 1: up happening. But you have Marawin here listed at second base, yet, Um,
Speaker 1: you know he's playing other positions as well. Could you
Speaker 1: fudge something with him? No, you can put them everywhere.
Speaker 1: That's what makes them so valuable. And and the deeper
Speaker 1: your league, where you know injuries can strike, and and
Speaker 1: the waiver wire is thinner. A guy like Marwin Gonzalez,
Speaker 1: who isn't you know, some superstar offensively, he's very valuable though,
Speaker 1: because you can move them to all those spots. And
Speaker 1: so when a key free agent comes up, if it's
Speaker 1: a second baseman and you have your second base locked
Speaker 1: well with Marwin, you move them around and then you
Speaker 1: can afford to get the free agent flavor of the week.
Speaker 1: So I love Marwin for that reason alone. I value
Speaker 1: positional flexibility quite a bit, maybe more than the rest
Speaker 1: of the industry. I think it's very valuable season to
Speaker 1: have guys who can move around. It really keeps your flexibility.
Speaker 1: So somebody like Marwin, I do like, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna get him as playing time. He's a super
Speaker 1: utility He's he's he's a Bens Obris you know, at
Speaker 1: Ben's Obriss Peak, he was playing everywhere, but he was
Speaker 1: playing every day. So he's not a utility hitter who
Speaker 1: only plays four times a week. He's he's a utility
Speaker 1: guy who plays six seven days a week. And that's
Speaker 1: what Marwin is. Gonna be great flex player for fantasy baseball.
Speaker 1: We'll come back. We'll do third base and excuse me,
Speaker 1: shortstop third base in the outfield. Paul Spoor from fan
Speaker 1: Graphs talking fantasy right here on a numbers game in Visa.
Speaker 1: Now back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our Visa In studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Back in the numbers game here at Visa Series Sex
Speaker 1: and shade to a four. If you sign up for
Speaker 1: the free daily Visa City newsletter, you'll also get our
Speaker 1: special betting god, Visa's Racers Odds. It should be pointed
Speaker 1: out for Sunday's Big Race here in Las Vegas Big
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Speaker 1: in depth race preview focusing on analysis of pass race
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Speaker 1: dot com Slash Race. That's Visa dot Com Slash Race,
Speaker 1: and we'll have Jeff Coleandro in tomorrow on the show
Speaker 1: to discuss that race as well. Paul Sporer is on
Speaker 1: with us UH kind enough to join us all our
Speaker 1: long talking fantasy baseball little betting props as well, UH,
Speaker 1: and should be noted by the way Paul at Sporer
Speaker 1: on Twitter at s p O R e Er and Pauli,
Speaker 1: you are tweeting out links to your rankings on every position,
Speaker 1: correct as as you make them. Yes, and so um
Speaker 1: I did first and second yesterday. Startners are already up,
Speaker 1: but the rest will actually be out today and tomorrow,
Speaker 1: so they won't have the new ones to flash up
Speaker 1: on the screen there, but there will be some extras today,
Speaker 1: so folks that want to follow me on Twitter, they'll
Speaker 1: get the links to those today, including uh, shortstop and
Speaker 1: third base, which I know we're about to cover here,
Speaker 1: so you want to dive in right now, sneak preview
Speaker 1: on those. All right, let's talk a little bit about shortstops. Sorry,
Speaker 1: Yankees fans. Deal overvalued for me is a little bit
Speaker 1: on Glabor Torres. And again it's not it's not the
Speaker 1: outright and bust that I think he's going to completely
Speaker 1: fall on his face, but I do you know, the
Speaker 1: sophomore slumpthing gets thrown around a lot, but there is
Speaker 1: value to it. And it's not so much that, um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's guaranteed every year. It's just that when
Speaker 1: you have an amazing rookie year, you usually only have
Speaker 1: one place to go, and that's down is to kind
Speaker 1: of you know, smooth back out as the league adjusts
Speaker 1: to you. And there's an adage that I learned years ago.
Speaker 1: I believe it was Ron Shambler who coined it, or
Speaker 1: at least that's where I heard it from. Prospect growth
Speaker 1: isn't linear, And I use that all the time because
Speaker 1: it's a it's a good reminder that just because somebody
Speaker 1: had a big season, I mean they're going to build
Speaker 1: on that and continue to stare step up into a star.
Speaker 1: And this works for even non prospects, uh you know,
Speaker 1: who have who have graduated off prospect list. They might
Speaker 1: be in their third year or whatever. It's not always
Speaker 1: going to be this perfect rise into excellence. So I
Speaker 1: think Glabor Torres kind of comes back to the pack
Speaker 1: a little bit this year, he's okay, not great, and
Speaker 1: then maybe takes off into superstardom for as far as undervalued.
Speaker 1: I really like Jorge Polanco out in Minnesota. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna be really interesting. By the way, could can tell.
Speaker 1: Marte also counts it shortstops, so there's a little bonus
Speaker 1: one there. He count counts that both positions. But I
Speaker 1: like Jorge Polanco. I think he's you know, he did
Speaker 1: get pop for p E. D S. I'm not too
Speaker 1: worried about that, though. I don't hold that against guys
Speaker 1: once they come back and you know, it's whatever. I mean.
Speaker 1: I don't play the moral police with that. He's served
Speaker 1: to suspension. It's time to move on. And then another
Speaker 1: one who's actually going to be playing second base, but
Speaker 1: he only qualifies that shortcoming into the season is Garrett
Speaker 1: Hampson out in Colorado. Absolutely love him. First off, ABC
Speaker 1: of Fantasy Baseball always been on course. It's that simple,
Speaker 1: it's not that hard, it's not cheating to do it,
Speaker 1: it's not cheesy to do it. It's the smart play. Yeah, DFS.
Speaker 1: First question I asked every die every day. Is there
Speaker 1: a game at Cores or not? That's the first question,
Speaker 1: Bingo exactly. And so Garrett Hampson is an interesting prospect.
Speaker 1: He's got great back to ball skills, he knows how
Speaker 1: to take a walk, and he's got premium speed and
Speaker 1: speed is hard to come by in fantasy these days.
Speaker 1: A perfect world scenario, this is not the projection I
Speaker 1: would give him. But but a a whow everything really
Speaker 1: broke right is forty stolen basis for Garrett Hampson. That's
Speaker 1: the kind of speed that he has, and he has
Speaker 1: good bat to ball skills, So I really like him
Speaker 1: as a breakout at short and then third base. Uh sorry,
Speaker 1: Yankees fans, it's Miguel Andohar. And honestly, he's even a
Speaker 1: bigger case for a sophomore slump than than Glaver Taurus,
Speaker 1: because he was better than Taurus and so, like I said,
Speaker 1: there's really only one spot to come, and that's down
Speaker 1: to kind of smooth out a little bit and as
Speaker 1: the league kind of catches up and adjust back to
Speaker 1: Miguel Andahr. He's a quality player for sure, but I
Speaker 1: just don't know that he's gonna hit two nine seven
Speaker 1: again with the Homers. And his defense is so wretched
Speaker 1: that I wonder if it will cost him some time
Speaker 1: as well, and he might not get that six hundred
Speaker 1: and six plate appearances again. So that's actually by bigger
Speaker 1: concerned than the best and then underrated. Oh God, I
Speaker 1: love Max Mounsey and I just don't think he's getting
Speaker 1: enough love off of what he did last year. And
Speaker 1: I know you might say, well, why wouldn't he have
Speaker 1: a sophomore slump, like, well, technically he wasn't a rookie,
Speaker 1: so that's one reason, but also because of the skills
Speaker 1: that he put underneath his season. I'm not necessarily saying
Speaker 1: that he's going to add to his thirty five homers.
Speaker 1: He might only hit another thirty five, but instead of
Speaker 1: doing it in four or eighty one plate appearances, it's
Speaker 1: in six hundred and twenty, so it's like a full season.
Speaker 1: But the undernight, underneath skills with the scent walk rate
Speaker 1: is just so impressive, and he's much more aggressive on
Speaker 1: the pictures that he can do damage with. And I
Speaker 1: just love what Max Monsey did. I think he can
Speaker 1: put up a hundred runs and a hundred ribbies in
Speaker 1: that Dodge is lined up to. I know there are
Speaker 1: some concerns that he'll get put tuned. He's too good
Speaker 1: to be put in, so they might take him out
Speaker 1: against lefties here and there a little bit early on,
Speaker 1: but I think they're going to realize that he can
Speaker 1: play against lefties and he should be an everyday player.
Speaker 1: So I love Max Munsey and then outfield finishing it up.
Speaker 1: This one is another one that where I don't hate him.
Speaker 1: I just don't like him at this cause that's George
Speaker 1: Springer He's a little bit of an accumulator, and so
Speaker 1: you really need him to stay healthy to pan out.
Speaker 1: He's the present day Adam Jones, Hunter Pence and Go
Speaker 1: kind of look at their career trajectory. They eventually, you know,
Speaker 1: they were always solid, but then they just kind of
Speaker 1: meandered off into being mediocre. And so he doesn't have
Speaker 1: any standout skills. He doesn't run anymore either, So that's
Speaker 1: George Springer. Just don't love him. There there's other guys
Speaker 1: I'd like to chase. And then I got I got
Speaker 1: a little bit of a couple of veteran types here,
Speaker 1: one who was a little bit unknown, well not anymore
Speaker 1: after the contract he got. But Andrew McCutchen is the
Speaker 1: one that everyone knows. Of course, he was great last year.
Speaker 1: I don't think people realize that because he was in
Speaker 1: San Francisco and so that that hid some of his production.
Speaker 1: But then when he went to New York, the skills
Speaker 1: like they they shown again, they shown brightly. So I
Speaker 1: love him in Philly for a whole year. I think
Speaker 1: he's being a bit underrated. And then the guy who
Speaker 1: I thought, you know before he got seven years seventy
Speaker 1: mill Aaron Hicks might have been a little bit underrated
Speaker 1: for New York, but now everyone kind of knows the name,
Speaker 1: and they should. This guy is health just staying healthy,
Speaker 1: one season away from a thirty twenty breakout type of season.
Speaker 1: He is that electric. He's got great skills. He also
Speaker 1: takes walks, so he is on base, stays high premium defenders,
Speaker 1: So you should always be in the lineup. I love
Speaker 1: Aaron Hicks. I'm gonna keep calling for the breakout, Gail.
Speaker 1: I don't care if he's thirty five. I'm still going
Speaker 1: to be calling for the breakout season for Aaron Hicks.
Speaker 1: I just believe in him so much. Can I just
Speaker 1: sprinkle some health dust on him? And I mean I
Speaker 1: guess that would be p ds, but no, so don't
Speaker 1: take pds. But um, if we could just keep him
Speaker 1: healthy for a hundred and fifty five games, he'd be
Speaker 1: an absolute monster. And no Miami Marlin in sight. Have
Speaker 1: you ever seen a team that is more bereft of
Speaker 1: fantasy talent than this team in all your years playing fantasy? No,
Speaker 1: because they're also in a in a brutal part. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so none of their hitters are all that appealing. They
Speaker 1: actually have some interesting pictures, but that division is an
Speaker 1: absolute nightmare, and so then and they don't get to
Speaker 1: face themselves. So I don't even want to take a
Speaker 1: shot on those pictures going against Atlanta, Washington, Philly and
Speaker 1: the Mets all the time. So no, completely the raft
Speaker 1: of talent. I might spot start one of their pictures
Speaker 1: every once in a blue moon, but for the most part,
Speaker 1: I'm completely ignoring that team. All Right, we'll see if
Speaker 1: Peter O'Brien has some breakout like Jason Weingarten hoped with
Speaker 1: his home run long shot pick. Paul Spore from fan
Speaker 1: Graphs The Sleeper in the Bust is the name of
Speaker 1: his podcast again. He'll tweet out all of these position
Speaker 1: rankings at spore s p O R. E Er on Twitter.
Speaker 1: PAULI can't thank you enough. Man. We'll put this in
Speaker 1: podcast for him for days in Mr G. I appreciate it.