1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 2: Playoffs You kidding me? 3 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Playoffs? 4 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 2: All right? 5 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Here we go, throwing job. 6 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash. 7 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: Most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. 8 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. 9 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. 10 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 2: I like to make money. 11 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 3: All right. This is the ultimate Kaba and we are underway. 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? 13 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fan Duel. 14 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL 15 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 3: Super wild Card Weekend betting preview where we will talk 16 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 3: about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of course crack 17 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 3: open our weekly six pack of best bets with the 18 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: help of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nations, 19 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 3: Stucky Stuck. 20 00:00:58,640 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: What's going on? 21 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: What's brother? Yeah? Playoff times here. You know. It's not 22 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: the most exciting wild Card weekend I've ever seen, mainly 23 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: just because some of the quarterback injuries. But that's why 24 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: we have betting, which always makes the games exciting. I 25 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 2: just really wish and I've said this on Twitter for 26 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: the last two years a lot, so it might sound 27 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 2: like a broken record, but I really should just did 28 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 2: three on Saturday. Three on Sunday. Like, give me the 29 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 2: NFL triple header on Saturday and Sunday and there's no 30 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: worry about rest or anything. But I don't need a 31 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 2: Monday night. I know that that's all about the TV ratings, 32 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 2: but man, I just give me on my couch for 33 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 2: three straight NFL playoff Cancel Saturday and Sunday, and then 34 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 2: let's go to the next weekend, which in my for 35 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,639 Speaker 2: my money, is the best weekend of the NFL season. 36 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 2: And that's the Divisional again, which should be really good 37 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 2: this year. But I'm excited to playals year and hopefully 38 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: we both had a hell of year. You had insane year, 39 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 2: and but let's let's try to get some winners and 40 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 2: keep it going through the Super Bowl. 41 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: ESPN at paid bucket Aikman all to have money to 42 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: not have a Monday night game in the playoffs. 43 00:01:58,120 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: I guess that's probably. 44 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 2: What it is. But yeah, and it always comes down 45 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 2: the money, all right. 46 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 3: And before we jump in to the show, do want 47 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 3: to shout out our guys over on the NFL Best 48 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 3: Bets episodes, which is right here on the Action Network podcast. 49 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 3: They do shows for us every Friday morning, and they 50 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 3: been doing a phenomenal job, especially Brandon Anderson and Luke 51 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 3: swayn aka Vegas refund. They want to combine five and 52 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 3: one last week, including a nice hit on the Titans 53 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 3: and under parlay, so be sure to check them out 54 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: every Friday morning during the playoffs. 55 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 2: Also, congratulations is in order for you end Sean Turner 56 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: for finishing You both finished I think at the top five. 57 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 2: Credible achievement for two of the best and player projections 58 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: in fantasy. Happy to have them both here at Action. 59 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 2: I think you finished THIRDY finished fifth or second and 60 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: fourth something like that. 61 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, second and fifth. I finished second, you finished fifth. 62 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 2: Is there a tilt worthy thing that you like? Oh? Man, 63 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 2: if I did this, I would have finished first. No. I 64 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 2: mean my boy. 65 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Thorman won. He was killing it all year. 66 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 3: Felt good though, and uh I can't complain about second place, 67 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: especially with Karen also finished in top five. 68 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: So appreciate the congrats and try to keep it going 69 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: with the pod. I was jump into the Super wild 70 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: Card Weekend six. 71 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: Pack thursdayper Action Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. 72 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: Gained a point on you last week? You hit your total? 73 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: I did not, but did No, I haven't had a 74 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: losing like six pack week in terms of the three picks, 75 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 3: but in a while but not. 76 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: But it's seventy two fifty three and you're up first. 77 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 2: Were going, did we get our money on dog to 78 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: sweep last week? By the way? 79 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: Yeah? 80 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 2: Nice? Yeah, so if you not doing any more of them, 81 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: but it's like, you know, four to six games, But yeah, 82 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 2: it was a nice way to close off the regular 83 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 2: season six pack. But for my first pick of the 84 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 2: wild card weekend six pack, I am going with the 85 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens plus eight and a half at the Cincinnati Bengals. 86 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 2: I'm assuming no Lamar Jackson. I'm assuming Tyler Huntley's gonna start. 87 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: I know there's a lot of ramblings out there that 88 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 2: Anthony Brown's gonna start again, whose turnovers led directly to 89 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 2: twenty one early Cincinnati points last week. But I'm pretty 90 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: sure that Huntley's going to start. He didn't throw in 91 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 2: the media portion, but he was. He could have started 92 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: last week if they really wanted the game and didn't 93 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: bench everybody. If worst comes to worst, you do have, 94 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 2: like Anthony burn at least got some experience and did 95 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 2: settle in late. But for this game in particular what 96 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 2: I want is I mean, with Lamar Jackson not healthy, 97 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 2: and I've heard many different clicking stories. I just assume 98 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 2: maybe it's contract. Maybe it's not. Now i'm hearing it's not. 99 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: And then he started this afternoon, he started liking tweets 100 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 2: about like trashing the Bengals. So I don't know what 101 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 2: exactly is going on. Should be interesting to watch, but I'm. 102 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: Assuming I think he's just hurt. 103 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, but so maybe that's what I'm thinking too, And 104 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 2: they swelling in the knee. It's a playoff game. Does 105 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: he risk in an organization? Want to risk it in 106 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 2: his contract? Here? I don't know, but there is, like 107 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: I think a small percentage chance that maybe he tries 108 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: to play. But I was in the sportsbook this weekend 109 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 2: and Vegas, and people were asking me, would you rather 110 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,039 Speaker 2: want like north of a touchdown without Lamar or near 111 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 2: a field goal with him? And I was like, I 112 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 2: want give me over the touchdown in this game, which 113 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 2: I think is gonna be lower scoring. Plus Lamar is 114 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 2: gonna be He's just missus sixteenth straight practice. There's gonna 115 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 2: be ross there. And when I won this game is 116 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 2: just hey, we're gonna lie up, We're gonna run the 117 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 2: ball when Humbley, and with Humbley in there, you don't 118 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 2: have to turn of a risk. Now he's not gonna kill, 119 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: he's not gonna throw the ball out of the field. 120 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: Very limited as a passer, he's gonna take a couple 121 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: of shots deep on the outside, and then he's gonna 122 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: try to throw out to Mark Andrews uh you know, 123 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 2: ten times in this game. And but but there's a 124 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: couple of things that why I think that the Ravens 125 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: have value in this game at above a touchdown. Their 126 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 2: ceilings really limited now as far as a contender, but 127 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 2: they were they you know, as a they could win 128 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: this game and then they could be a feisty dog 129 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 2: that'll cover next week in candasity. And that's probably without 130 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: healthy Lamar Jackson. But the Bengals, this Bengals team, not 131 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: enough people are talking about the offensive line injuries. And 132 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 2: if you remember when they played New England three weeks 133 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: ago and Collins went out, that second half was a mess, 134 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 2: Burrows under pressure the entire game. Then I'm watching last 135 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 2: week and as someone who had a Raven's ticket, when 136 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 2: that line went up too much, you know, then you 137 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 2: lose Alex Kappa, who has been one of their best 138 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 2: pass protectors and best offensive lineman in general. So now 139 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: you're talking and he's out and Collins is out too, 140 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 2: So now you're talking about Hakeem Identergy and Max Sharping 141 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: on the right side of that offensive line, and they 142 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 2: were both horrendous and pass coverage. And if you saw 143 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 2: that Ravens defense, which you know wasn't at full strength 144 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 2: last week, they were getting pressure on Burrow and Burrow, 145 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 2: who has struggled when facing the Ravens when both Marcus 146 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: Peters and Marlon Humphrey are in there. He had a 147 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 2: long touchdown pass last week and it was with Darryl 148 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 2: Worley one on one against Jamar Chase, which is hilarious. Really, 149 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 2: they hadn't played all year, wasn't supposed to even play 150 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: in the game, and then people got sick and then 151 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 2: they just decided to hole held out some others. But 152 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 2: he hasn't been great, and I think that Ravens are 153 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 2: going to control the line of scrimmage on both sides 154 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: of the ball. And this is gonna be a It's 155 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 2: gonna be a divisional war. What is home field really 156 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: worth here? Not that much. It's already divisional game. The 157 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 2: Ravens were just here and they actually got their key 158 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 2: players rest last week. This is as healthy as they'll 159 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: be in a while. And I want this game to 160 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: be run to you know, throw it to Mark Andrews 161 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: a couple times, a third down, take a couple of shots, 162 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 2: punt special teams. Huge advantage here, coaching, huge advantage here. 163 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,239 Speaker 2: And now they had the Bengals chirping that the Ravens 164 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: were taking cheap shots last week. It's like pretty worried 165 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 2: about the Ravens were they had eight starters out playing 166 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 2: their third string, drafted free edge of quarterback. So there's like, 167 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 2: are the Ravens in the Bengals head a little bit? 168 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 2: I don't know, but anything over a touchdown here is 169 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: a classic far ball playoff spot. Who's five and zero 170 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: straight up and against the spread on the road in 171 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 2: the Wildcard round in his career, covering by sixteen points 172 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 2: per game in those five games. He's also the most 173 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 2: profitable coach against the spread on the road in NFL history. 174 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 2: It's just an organizational game where the Ravens will end. Look, 175 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 2: the total is sitting at forty one. I think it'll 176 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: be super low scoring last week. Actually, it gave me 177 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 2: a lot of encouragement for how they can look in 178 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 2: this game with Huntley in there and just okay, let's 179 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: play field position, and you know they can match up. 180 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 2: This defense since Roquan Smith has arrived, has been arguably 181 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: the best in the NFL. Their special teams are arguing 182 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 2: with the best in the NFL. Anything over a touchdown 183 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 2: here is all all I was waiting for. So I'll 184 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 2: happily take the Ravens here and what I think will 185 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 2: be like a very close game throughout. 186 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's you know this raven team. I mean, it's 187 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,679 Speaker 3: all defense, I feel like for them at this point. 188 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 3: But it's like the third divisional matchup, second in two weeks. 189 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 3: You wouldn't expect it to go crazy, like you would 190 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 3: expect kind of a tight game. 191 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: And like you said, these are the game. 192 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 2: These are the exact games from two thousand and six 193 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 2: to twenty and eleven when the Ravens would go up 194 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: to New England. They just have defense and special teams. 195 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 2: They would catch seven or eight every time and it 196 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 2: would always be a field goal game against Pete Brady. 197 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 2: So I have a lot of respect for this Bengals 198 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 2: team there and obviously Joe Burrow the receivers, but the 199 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 2: offensive line injuries are key here because Burrow. I think 200 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: it's gonna be under pressure. They're not gonna blitz Tom. 201 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 2: They were getting pressure without blitzing. I think the Ravens 202 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 2: are just gonna turn into turn this into a blood bath. 203 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 2: And like most of their games over without since Lamar 204 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 2: Jackson's going down, it's like seventeen thirteen, twenty to seventeen. 205 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 2: Try to make it in that neighborhood, and I think 206 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 2: they can, similar to the first time they met in 207 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 2: Baltimore when the Ravens won, I think nineteen seventeen. 208 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, and I'll have something on this game 209 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 3: in a bit with in relation to that offensive line. 210 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you. 211 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 3: For my first pick in the second overall of the 212 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 3: wild Card weekend six pack, I'm going with the New 213 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 3: York Giants plus three at the Minnesota Vikings. 214 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: And you know, to me, this is just the best 215 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: underdog on the slate. 216 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 3: Yar, the Giants are on paper, they're better team, and 217 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 3: you know they're facing this Viking team for the second time, 218 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 3: not only do they match up well with them from 219 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 3: a schematic standpoint, you know, Giants play a ton of man. 220 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins has struggled versus man almost a yard per 221 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 3: attempt lower against Manden zone. He's also thirty fourth to 222 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 3: forty two quarterbacks in PFF grade versus the Blitz at 223 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 3: fifty nine point nine, and the Giants blitz most in 224 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 3: the league. But also you have this second matchup and 225 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 3: the Giants actually, you know, rested, everybody got their getting healthy. 226 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 1: Looks like a Dori Jackson should be back. 227 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 3: But they outgained this Minnesota team for forty five three 228 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 3: fifty three in the first matchup. And you look at 229 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 3: Minnesota and what happened to the teams that faced them twice. 230 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 3: In the first meeting against green Bay, Minnesota wins twenty 231 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 3: three to seven. In the rematch, green Bay wins forty 232 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: one to fourteen. In the first meeting with Detroit, Minnesota 233 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 3: twenty eight twenty four. Second meeting, Detroit wins thirty four 234 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 3: twenty three. So I think the Giants are gonna have 235 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 3: an edge here being that they rested everyone just we're 236 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 3: able to prepare for this Minnesota team and are facing 237 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 3: them a second time, because this Minnesota. 238 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: Team is not that hard to beat. 239 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 3: I mean, the Giants came up just short in the 240 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 3: first matchup, had a couple of turnovers, but as I said, 241 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 3: I'll gain them by nearly one hundred yards. And that's 242 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 3: kind of been a story with Minnesota. They've gotten out 243 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 3: gained in most of their games. And this Giant defense 244 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: not great statistically, but does step up in situational spots, 245 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 3: third down, red zone, top five and both. So all 246 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 3: I need is a couple stops here. But because I 247 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 3: don't really think the Giants are out matched at all 248 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 3: in this game. And wild card road dog seven or 249 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 3: less twenty nine and eighteen sixty two percent against the 250 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 3: spread since two thousand and three, and Brian Dabo has 251 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 3: actually won you know, six of eleven if you throw 252 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 3: out the game where they were resting starters as a 253 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 3: money line underdog tied one as well. So love the 254 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 3: Giants in this spot. I think they have the best 255 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 3: upset chances of anyone this on this Wildcard weekend. 256 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, but they should have won that first game. The 257 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 2: only think there's a stat that you'll see floated out 258 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 2: there since two thousand and two, quarterbacks making their first 259 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 2: in the fall Fayleff start against quarterbacks who have one 260 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: or eighteen thirty six straight up seventeen thirty six and 261 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 2: one against the spread. That obviously doesn't apply when you 262 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 2: have two quarterbacks who who are making their first first start, 263 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 2: but it does apply here. But yeah, this, this just 264 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 2: Minnesota team is not good all year. They they escape 265 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 2: with wins. And what do the Giants do? They just 266 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 2: keep games close, They ugly them up. They shine in 267 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 2: this game, as in this role as a road underdog, 268 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 2: have already been to Minnesota this year, helps with the 269 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: familiarity factor, and I would agree, and that will lead 270 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 2: me into my second pick and the third overall of 271 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 2: the wildcard weekend six back. And that's a teaser. So 272 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 2: if we're not gonna have we don't have bets on 273 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 2: all six sides. So the six pack for this week 274 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 2: you can bet really anything. I'm gonna tease the Giants 275 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 2: up from three and to nine. I mean again, we 276 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 2: just talked about this the Vikings. I want eleven straight 277 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 2: games at one point by one possession, and the Giants 278 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 2: all they do is cover as redunder dogs. I also 279 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 2: lean them in this spot with you here, So I'll 280 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 2: tease them through you know, three four, six, seven up 281 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,199 Speaker 2: to nine, and then I'm gonna tease them with the 282 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Bucks from plus two and a half two 283 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: plus eight and a half. I think that this line 284 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: would have been three if the Cowboys didn't get slaughtered 285 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 2: last week by Washington and they kind of down trended 286 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 2: to end the year. Dak Prescott has been struggling of late. 287 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 2: Their past defense has been struggling of late. There's you know, 288 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 2: I would look at Tampa here as a play, but 289 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: I am a little worried about their center play, which 290 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 2: is why I feel safer teasing this so is Ryan 291 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: Jets are gonna play. He'd be a huge addition to 292 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 2: this team if you get him back Howl. He hasn't 293 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 2: played at all this year, but he has started practicing. 294 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: How effective will you be, I don't know because his 295 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 2: backup also got hurt. So there's questions at center. And 296 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 2: then you know the Cowboys, that's the one thing that 297 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 2: they can do really well on defense is generate pressure, 298 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 2: and if you do that up the gut, that's really 299 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: what can give Brady problems. But teasing this up from 300 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 2: you know through three four six, seven up to eight 301 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: and a half. I'm very comfortable with that here, especially 302 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 2: with the defensive side of the ball the Bucks have. 303 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 2: They've really not been fully healthy for most of the season. 304 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 2: Right you either had how many times did they have 305 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 2: their secondary folly inten with Hicks Inveya up front? Not 306 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 2: many times, and that's why some of their stats which 307 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 2: are look very perplexing for this defense, like twentieth in 308 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 2: the NFL in first round run defense. But if you 309 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 2: look at games that Hicks and they have played together, 310 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 2: which they will be here, and their secondaries fully intack, 311 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 2: they were six and one with Hicks and Aya in 312 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: the lineup, two and seven without them, And when they 313 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: did play three point nine yards per rush, allowed fifteen 314 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 2: points per game. When they didn't, four point eight rush 315 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 2: yards per attempt out over you're almost a yard more, 316 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 2: and they out twenty five points per game. So they 317 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 2: make a huge difference up front. And I think right 318 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 2: now with this Dallas offense, if you can really slow 319 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 2: down their early down runs, which I think Tampa will 320 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 2: be able to do here, and I think you're gonna 321 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 2: see a lot of man coverage on the back end. 322 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 2: Jack's really struggling against man right now, I think go 323 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 2: back to that Philadelphia given he went twenty five to 324 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 2: twenty five against Zone with three hundred gards and three 325 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 2: touchdowns and then was like one of nine with a 326 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 2: pick against against Man. But I think you're going to 327 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: see heavy man here, you know, some pressure on Prescott 328 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 2: and he's just really struggling. He's not He's I don't 329 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 2: think he's trusting his reads. He's not seeing the field. 330 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: Well. 331 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 2: I mean, it's pretty amazing for a guy who missed 332 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 2: as much time as he did that led the league 333 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 2: at interceptions. So I think that there's more turnover risk 334 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 2: here on the Dallas side, and I think this Tampa 335 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 2: Bay defense might be the deciding factor. But the offensive 336 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 2: line gives me enough pause where I'm just more comfortable 337 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 2: teasing this with a really strong teaser piece in the 338 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 2: Giants up from three to nine. So yeah, for my 339 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 2: second pick, I'm gonna go Giants and box teaser. 340 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: Yeah. I like that. I like the Bucks too. I 341 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 1: think I think Dallas could be in trouble. 342 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 3: I mean, the reason Dak is struggling is because nobody 343 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 3: could get open aside from Cde Lamb and Ceedee Lamb 344 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 3: struggled a lot in this In the first matchup against 345 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: Tampa Bay, I think he was caught two of eleven 346 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 3: targets for uh like minimal yardage. If that happens again, 347 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 3: I mean, yes, you have gallup, you didn't have gout 348 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 3: the first time, but was not really a guy who's 349 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,120 Speaker 3: getting a lot of separation. Noah Brown isn't either. That's 350 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 3: why they're they brought t Y Hilton that are essentially 351 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 3: retirement and they're given you know, they're giving them a 352 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 3: meaningful role because they can't get guys open. 353 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 2: So this could Yeah, that's a good point, Brad, that 354 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 2: that first matchup, that first matchup kind of speaks to 355 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: a lot of the things that I was just talking 356 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 2: to because that's when the Bucks defense was healthy. Was 357 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,360 Speaker 2: Week one of the regular season. They won that game 358 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 2: nineteen to three, and that was despite Dallas was getting 359 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 2: pressure on Brady throughout that game. So that could happen again. 360 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 2: But it was the Bucks defense that really won that 361 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 2: game for them. And you know, coming into the NFL PLAYFFS, 362 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 2: I I you know the lines are going to be 363 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 2: really it's the NFL market. We've had eighteen weeks. What 364 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: I look trying to look for, is matchup advantages that 365 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 2: I really believe in, or units that I think are 366 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 2: undervalued for various reasons, or in the opposite end. And 367 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: I think for these first two bets, like I've been 368 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 2: saying that the Ravens defense has been just completely underrated 369 00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 2: since because you look at some of their season long metrics, 370 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 2: they don't look great. But I think this is an 371 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 2: elite defense. And then the Bengals offensive line injuries aren't 372 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 2: be accounted for. And I think in this game, it's 373 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 2: the Bucks defense now at full you know, basically full 374 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 2: strength that isn't being properly accounted for because coming into 375 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: the season this is one of the best defenses in 376 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: the NFL and paper, and then dealt with just injuries 377 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 2: in every unit throughout the season, and now it's like, 378 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 2: all right, after rest last week, they're gonna come in 379 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 2: here as you know, pretty close to a full full 380 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 2: strength unit outside of you know, their best pass runcher. 381 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 2: They adjusted two sins. 382 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're at home. 383 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 3: You know, don't underestimate that, you know, Dallas, I mean 384 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 3: they only lost a couple of games down that stretch 385 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 3: with Dak, but they were costly that game against Green 386 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 3: Bay they could have had they were up big in 387 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 3: the second half, and then that game against Jacksonville they 388 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,919 Speaker 3: should have had and if they did that, maybe they 389 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 3: wouldn't have to go on a road here, you know, 390 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 3: to to Tampa Bay, because this is not a matchup 391 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 3: that Dallas wants. I think they could lose this game 392 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 3: nineteen to three again, So I like to pick all 393 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: right for my second pick and the the fourth overall 394 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 3: of the wild card six pack. I'm going with the 395 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 3: Bills first half team total over fourteen and I think 396 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 3: this Buffalo team is going to come out pretty hot 397 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 3: here against Miami. This is just what Buffalo has been 398 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 3: doing at home this year. If you look at their 399 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 3: first half splits home and road, it's just night and day. 400 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 3: At home nineteen point seven first half points per game, 401 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 3: first in the NFL, and then you look at Miami 402 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 3: eighteen point six first half points per game allowed thirty 403 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 3: first in the NFL. Buffalo has scored above fourteen and 404 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 3: six to the eight home games they played. Miami's allowed 405 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 3: seventeen plus in the first half in seven of its 406 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 3: nine road games. Skyra Thompson's gonna get to start now, 407 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 3: which means it's gonna be harder for them. Two sustained drives, 408 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 3: and I think you've still had a turnover risk. You know, 409 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 3: he hasn't had a bunch of degreedious ones yet. But 410 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 3: it's Skyra Thompson in the playoff game. So I think 411 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 3: there's a lot of different ways the Bills could score, 412 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 3: kind of reminiscent of how they it came out again 413 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 3: against the Patriots last year. I think they put up 414 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 3: forty in both playoff games a year ago, so I 415 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 3: expect them to come out hot. You know, at this game. 416 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 3: It could get weird because Skyra Thompson, I mean Miami. 417 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 3: If Miami doesn't get offense going, I don't know how 418 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 3: the second half plays out. That's why I'm going with 419 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: the first half. Don't don't hate the full game team 420 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 3: total over either. This Miami defense, I just I don't 421 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 3: think it's that great. It's been a tiny bit better 422 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 3: than it was early in the year, but they just 423 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 3: don't have enough in my opinion, to handle Buffalo here, 424 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 3: even with even with Bradley Chubb, and now you have 425 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 3: a that quarterback really changes everything because at least with 426 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 3: you know, a guy like Tua, you know, you were 427 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 3: moving the ball up and down the field. You were 428 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 3: you had possessions. Now it's like every every you're you're 429 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 3: at risk of three. And now every time you get 430 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 3: on offense. So give me the Bills over fourteen in 431 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 3: the first half. 432 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, if they're like roll, if they're rolling here, you 433 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 2: know in the second half, and then the Dolphins offense 434 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 2: is doing thing you could That's why I could see why, 435 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 2: you know, the full game, it's like, all right, we 436 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 2: might have to go to play the Bengals and the Chiefs. 437 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 2: Let's just shut this down and go conservative, right, there's 438 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 2: no reason to run it up in the in the playoffs. 439 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 2: But yeah, I agree with you. By the way, it's 440 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 2: awesome to see Hamlet's out of the hospital like doing okay, 441 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 2: if they if they this will Now this is all anecdotal, 442 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: but I would like it for the bet too. If 443 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 2: he comes out to like the they like he leads 444 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,880 Speaker 2: him out of the tunnel. Oh man. And then there's 445 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 2: a I wish I was there even last week after 446 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 2: all that happened with a kick return to start the 447 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 2: game that looked to be electric at in that stadium. 448 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 2: But this is where I think that that that stat 449 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 2: where it's first time starting quarterbacks in the playoffs against 450 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 2: quarterbacks experience, this is where that could really hurt you, 451 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 2: because you know, when you have, you know, Scott Topsin, 452 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 2: is such limited experience. Now you're on the road in 453 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 2: the hostile environment, and you're playing a team that you're 454 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 2: most likely not going to be able to stop, and 455 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 2: then you're it's going to be on you now with 456 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 2: your minute experience in the playoffs on the road in 457 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 2: a hostile environment, if that's you to try to keep 458 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 2: your team in the game or try to come back, 459 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 2: and that usually ends in disaster in a playoff atmosphere 460 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 2: like this, So that's where this stat really could be applicable. 461 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with you there, and that'll lead 462 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 2: me into my third pick and the fifth overall of 463 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 2: the Wildcore we can six pack. I'm curious to get 464 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 2: your thoughts. I don't know where you're gonna go with that, 465 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: but I'm gonna I'm gonna take the Bills again. This 466 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: is a good little transition here. Take the Bill's money 467 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 2: line and I'm gonna pair the Bills with the Chargers. 468 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 2: You could say, why not lay two two and a 469 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 2: half of the Chargers I'm like, well, this is the Chargers. 470 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 2: There's there's ninety percent chance they win this game. They 471 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 2: win by one, but I'm really confident the Bills winning. 472 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 2: The Chargers just find ways to win weird, fluky games 473 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 2: and keep teams in it. But when I look at 474 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 2: this game, the biggest differentiating factor for me, the charge 475 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 2: has been great on the road all yearther seven to 476 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 2: two against the spread. They traveled well when they've come 477 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 2: out here, and they don't have a great home field advantage. 478 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,439 Speaker 2: So it's not I don't mind betting the Chargers on 479 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 2: the road here, but I think that and their defense 480 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 2: is getting healthier. They're trending in the right direction. I 481 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 2: do believe Mike Williams is going to play, but we'll see. 482 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 2: But there's certain coverages that there's certain coverages that Trevor 483 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 2: Lawrence has struggle with in particular this year. This is 484 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 2: a really smart defensive staff. I don't know about the offensively, 485 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 2: and they're play calling, so I think that their defense 486 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 2: is going to be ready here and have a really 487 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 2: good game plan that confuses Trevor Lawrence. But I think 488 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 2: that most importantly what differentiaates this game for me is 489 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 2: two up and coming quarterbacks. I trust Herbert a little 490 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 2: more right now. But I think the worst unit in 491 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 2: this game by far is the Jaguars pass defense, and 492 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 2: I think ultimately that's what we'll decide this game, even 493 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 2: if the charges are downlay and I think they can 494 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 2: come back. The Jacks have a bottom three pass defense 495 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: to me. They also are thirty first defending the short pass, 496 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 2: which I think that's mass here because one of my 497 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 2: biggest complaints, I think it's a lot of people's complaints, 498 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 2: is they the charters don't let Justin Herbert throw the 499 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 2: ball down the field enough. Right, They're not aggressive enough, 500 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 2: and it's a lot of short passes and especially on 501 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 2: early downs. I think that'll work here. And also I 502 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 2: think that the Jags, you know what I spoke to, 503 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: like what's undervalued override. The Jags played nobody all year 504 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 2: from a pass defense perspective. They're the easiest schedule of 505 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 2: opposing quarterbacks that they faced. Look no further than their division. 506 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 2: I mean they're facing I mean they had to win 507 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 2: the division by beating Josh Dobbs. You know, you're playing 508 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 2: the Texans twice, You're playing the Colts twice, and then 509 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 2: you played some other teams when they had injuries at 510 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,360 Speaker 2: receiver and quarterbacks, so if you look at their schedule, 511 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: it was as easy it can get as it can 512 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 2: get for a pass defense that we came into the season. 513 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 2: So this is their biggest weeknes weekness by far. It 514 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 2: was the one thing that almost scared me from not 515 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,479 Speaker 2: vetting them to win the division. But I was like, well, 516 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 2: we don't have to worry about you know, great passing 517 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,439 Speaker 2: offenses in this division. Now you do. You're going up 518 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 2: against Justin Herbert. I think that's ultimately difference here. I 519 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: think that the Chargers defense will confuse Lawrence to Dely 520 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 2: a mistake or two, and Justin Herbert should be able 521 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 2: to carve up this past defense that just really got 522 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 2: a pass for most of this season. So give me 523 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 2: the Chargers money on pair with the Bills money on. 524 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 2: It'll plus money. You get a little another game that 525 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 2: can entertain you if you're looking for another bet, if 526 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 2: you don't follow Raybaun's Bills team total, which I also like. 527 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: But the biggest reason here is Jags passed the Kirsky. 528 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 2: Your thoughts in this game, yeah, this one. 529 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 3: Honestly, I'm struggling a little bit with this game, because 530 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 3: you know, I kind of I do agree. I think 531 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 3: you know, we've kind of talked about Trevor Lawrence. There's 532 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 3: been certain coverages. It's but the numbers have kind of 533 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 3: flipped a little bit. 534 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 2: You know. 535 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 3: It started out it was a lot of those man coverages. 536 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 3: Now a little more of the zones. But I just 537 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 3: can't get a good feel for the Jags because of 538 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 3: their schedule. 539 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: You know, It's like they have this winning streak. 540 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 3: They did beat Dallas, which was a good win in 541 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 3: like that was really the only good win that they had, 542 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,360 Speaker 3: and they put up five hundred yards of offense get destroyed. Yeah, 543 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 3: been fading a little bit now. I don't mind the Charger. 544 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 3: I think they're more likely to win this game. This 545 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 3: JAG's offense I think is solid, but they sometimes I 546 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 3: just feel like they don't take that next step, you know, 547 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 3: Like I feel like they should be putting up more 548 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 3: points in certain spots. 549 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: And they don't. So you know I would I would 550 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 1: wan charges as well. So yeah, I don't I don't 551 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: hate it. 552 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 3: It's a it's a tough game to cap for me. Honestly, 553 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 3: That's why I didn't make a pick on it and 554 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 3: the sixth overall of the Wildcar Weekend six pack. I'm 555 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 3: going with a prop going with Joe Mixon under eighty 556 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 3: five and a half combined rushing and receiving yards. 557 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: And this is some. 558 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 2: Super Bowl Super Bowl memories from mixing props. 559 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 3: Right, yeah, Ryan, mixing, Yeah, yeah, I think that's That's 560 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,199 Speaker 3: not what ended up deciding it too. I think I 561 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 3: went like two and one or one and oh when 562 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 3: you went oh and three on props or like it 563 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 3: was something ridiculous where I was like, p Ryan was 564 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 3: a difference, I think. But so yeah, you know, in 565 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 3: my model, I have mixing projected for seventy eight yards average. 566 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 3: Now the average is different than the median. You know, 567 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,639 Speaker 3: we project the average and then we kind of derived 568 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 3: the median from that. So a seventy eight average means 569 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 3: the medians about seventy five seventy four, and that is 570 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 3: massive value when you're talking about a line that's at 571 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 3: eighty five and a half. And so I'm just kind 572 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 3: of go through it, you know, not with the numbers, 573 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 3: but just kind of break it down. Baltimore great run 574 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 3: defense seventh in yards per carry aloud to running backs 575 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 3: at three point nine to four. They held mix into 576 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 3: eleven for twenty seven on the ground last week. So 577 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 3: it's gonna you're gonna put a lot of pressure on 578 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 3: him to catch passes. I think to hit this total. 579 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 3: And he has been catching a ton of passes, but 580 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 3: his route participation rate for the year, he averages a 581 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 3: route on fifty percent of the dropbacks, but he hasn't 582 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,959 Speaker 3: actually hit that number since Week eight. P Ryan has 583 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 3: been getting more and more useage on passing downs and 584 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 3: that's something that we saw last postseason. 585 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: So I don't expect it to just revert back. 586 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 3: But I actually have mixing projected pretty generously for a 587 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 3: fifty percent even though he hasn't hit that in you know, 588 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 3: half the year, just because that's the season average, and 589 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 3: he still falls well short. He still comes out to 590 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 3: seventy eight total rushing and receiving yards. So and then 591 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,719 Speaker 3: you have this Baltimore team, you know, talked about it 592 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 3: right on defense wants to run the ball on the 593 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 3: other side, could shorten the game. And then on top 594 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 3: of that, you have the Bengals offensive line issues. Not 595 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 3: only does that make it harder to run with efficiency, 596 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 3: but you might have to keep mixing into block on 597 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 3: an extra snap or two. So you have just a 598 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,719 Speaker 3: lot of different things I think working in your favor 599 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 3: in terms of Mixing going under this one. And of course, 600 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 3: you know, if you're right about the Ravens making it 601 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 3: closer than people think, that also helps because probably the 602 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 3: worst thing that could happen is if Mixing just runs 603 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 3: twenty five times for fifty five yards, you know, like 604 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 3: just just slamming them into a wall. 605 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: So that that's how this prop would probably lose. 606 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 3: But I'm just showing massive value here on this number 607 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 3: early in the week, so I'm sure you know, people 608 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 3: haven't really taken too much of a look at props, 609 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 3: probably why the number is up as it is. But yeah, 610 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 3: I have I have the media and in about ten 611 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 3: ten yards lower, So if you're listening and it's moved down, 612 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 3: I would still feel comfortable betting it into the into 613 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 3: the mid seventies. 614 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that, And that speaks to some of 615 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 2: the things why I like the Raids. I mean, they're 616 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 2: run Dy two. You mentioned the Runny looks good all year, 617 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 2: but they're Rundy's number one EPA per rush since Roquon 618 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,959 Speaker 2: Smith got there. And it's basically just no one's been 619 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 2: able to run on them. And then the Bengals offensive line. 620 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 2: I don't think it's being accounted for. And this is 621 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 2: as well what you mentioned. So yeah, and if this 622 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 2: game is lower scoring and closer like I think it 623 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 2: will be, then yeah, that also helps the prop. So yeah, 624 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 2: I love this as well. I'll I'll be joining with 625 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: a rare NFL prop. 626 00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: So I'm fan to get it. 627 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 3: Get it well the last three caps, because we got 628 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 3: this is not the normal six pack. Again, just open 629 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 3: it up to any kind of bet here, since the 630 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 3: market is pretty efficient as you could tell in terms 631 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 3: of the sides and even the totals. I think so 632 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 3: stuck has the Ravens plus eight and a half at 633 00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 3: the Bengals, the teasing the Giants up to nine and 634 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 3: the Bucks up to eight and a half, and then 635 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 3: the parlaying the Chargers money line with the Bills money line. 636 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 3: I have the Giants plus three, the Bills first half 637 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 3: total team total over fourteen, and Joe Mixon under eighty 638 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 3: five and a half rushing plus receiving yards. 639 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 1: That is our six pack. Let's jump into the wildcard weekend. Coaches, 640 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 1: pep talk, you are not losers. 641 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 4: You don't suck. 642 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 2: What you do is not stupid, and I don't give 643 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 2: a shit who tells you that? 644 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 3: All right, this week's Coaches pep Talk is an actual, 645 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 3: real life coaches pep talk. It's the weaked audio of 646 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 3: Georgia coach Kirby Smart before Monday nights college football National 647 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 3: Championship game. 648 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: We want to dedicate this to I think we should 649 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,280 Speaker 1: dedicated to Todd Bowles here. 650 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 2: I don't think it would early Todd Bowles. He's like 651 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 2: Todd Bowles tells Brady, we got to throw it to 652 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 2: like like McDaniel, you have to let's see McDaniels. 653 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 1: Maybe I feel like mcdannel has no chance though I 654 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 1: don't think. I don't think of pep talk's doing any gifts. 655 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 2: Man, Well that's what I need. He's gonna need a 656 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 2: historically great hardball Shanahan. They have, they potentially could have. 657 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 2: They're all starting third string quarterbacks. I think we should 658 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 2: dedicate it to all the all the first time quarterbacks 659 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 2: and third stringers that might have to start, because they're 660 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 2: gonna need to come out. You can't get behind. They're 661 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 2: gonna have to come out fired up and make a 662 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 2: play early. So yeah, we have all these backups potentially starting. 663 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 2: Let's dedicate it to all of them. 664 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 3: All right, Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Skyra Thompson, Tyra Huntley, 665 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 3: slash Anthony Brown. I mean Trevor Lawrence first time, Justin 666 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 3: Herbert first time. 667 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, Dak Prescott could usually use a peptal. I could 668 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 2: use a petal out there his play recently to. 669 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 3: Like, yeah, he gotta stop throwing picks. Man to all 670 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 3: the quarterbacks. Gosh, Allen, do not throw a red zone pick. 671 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 3: That would just I could see that screwing me. 672 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 2: So this goes out to all the quarterbacks except Joe Burrow. 673 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 2: He doesn't need a pepto. 674 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 4: Joe ass is prepared for this shit, for fucking a 675 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 4: three hundred sixty five day. I think about the fuckers 676 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 4: in that locker room, all the shit you went through 677 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 4: this week to get ready for this game. Now it's 678 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,479 Speaker 4: when you play the fucking price. Ain't nobody's rooms nervous 679 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 4: about ship? Go out here and fuck their ass leup, 680 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 4: you knock their asshole. 681 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: The shit's easy. The shit's easy about who the fuck 682 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: we are? I believe in you. 683 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 3: Less no pair. All right, let's get into the uh 684 00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 3: best of the rest, which is the games we haven't 685 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 3: covered in any other segment but are still, as they say, 686 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 3: meaningful to some. That's gonna be a touchdown, but that 687 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 3: may be meaningful to some of you. You what, man, 688 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 3: just one game, you got Seattle going to San Francisco. 689 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,760 Speaker 1: I mean Seattle in the playoffs. Man woo. 690 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 3: Not many people saw that coming. Uh niners favorite nine 691 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 3: and by nine and a half the total was forty 692 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 3: two and a half. I did think about the under 693 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 3: for this game, but then I know Seattle and San 694 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 3: Francisco playto low scoring game. But then I'm looking like 695 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 3: every other game San Francisco puts up thirty plus, So 696 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 3: I don't really trust this thing to stay under. I mean, 697 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 3: you're gonna get a good game point even if it's 698 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 3: running heavy from Shanahan. But what do you think about 699 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 3: about this one? 700 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm kind of tempted to take the points, like 701 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 5: to take I want ten, And then I was looking under. 702 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 5: If I get forty three, it's kind of it's key 703 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 5: number now mid since pushing extra point back a lot 704 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 5: of familiarity here, we've seen the forty nine ers just 705 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 5: botch this. They just don't cover these numbers a lot, 706 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 5: but you know, against teams that they're familiar with and 707 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 5: they'll win. 708 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 2: They're just too conservative at times. Now creadit think a 709 00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 2: little different lately, but just now you have to count 710 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 2: on party like not having some jitters. That again at 711 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,120 Speaker 2: Gino Smith has never made a playoff start either, but 712 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 2: he's been. 713 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,120 Speaker 1: Around for like, how do you forget Geno? 714 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, Geo Smith too, So yeah, it's the weekend 715 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 2: of inexperienced quarterbacks. But uh, but that party like, is 716 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,600 Speaker 2: he is he gonna throw an early pick because an 717 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 2: early picker too? Is he gonna have some jitters here? 718 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 2: And the problem is I Frank can come out and 719 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 2: they's gonna make a heavy run all over Seattle. And 720 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 2: we've talked about Seattle's issues in defending the run. But 721 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,760 Speaker 2: if I can get ten flat and then under forty 722 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 2: three is what I first wanted to look at. But 723 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 2: it's not like I'm not in love with it. This 724 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 2: game's pretty ugly. Is this a Saturday after the first 725 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:41,919 Speaker 2: Saturday afternoon game? 726 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 1: Yep? 727 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,360 Speaker 2: That always is the first Saturday afternon gaon is always 728 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 2: the least advertising. So yeah, I might play Seattle small 729 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 2: if I can get ten San Fran takes some more money. 730 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 2: It's just on a gut feel like I'm close to 731 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 2: I'm actually I make it actually closer to eight. So 732 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 2: if I could get ten, a look like that in 733 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 2: half not enough of a difference to play. But you know, 734 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 2: even though I make it around eight, and that's still 735 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 2: with just some uncertainty with party and it gets to ten, 736 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 2: I you know, that's not a taken into account my 737 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 2: fear of San Fred's running down hill in the ball game. 738 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,759 Speaker 1: Yeah that and they could very well do. 739 00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 3: I mean reminiscent of what was it that Green Bay 740 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,800 Speaker 3: game a couple of years ago? You know last year 741 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,839 Speaker 3: it wasn't you know last year they played close games 742 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,800 Speaker 3: every every week. But I mean, Pete Carroll give them credit. 743 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,760 Speaker 3: And maybe you know, third time they covered last time 744 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,280 Speaker 3: after getting blown out the first time. But yeah, it's 745 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,160 Speaker 3: it's tough for me. I'll probably look at a prop 746 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 3: or something like that. What maybe Elijah Mitchell or one 747 00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,479 Speaker 3: of those those guys, because I think McCaffrey's probably gonna 748 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 3: be too inflated. 749 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 2: But yeah, I see at Seattle at ten under at 750 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 2: forty three or better. I'm not strong about it. I mean, 751 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,359 Speaker 2: these lines are pretty pretty damn sharp. But did some 752 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 2: of the under though, because I get Beau. I think 753 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 2: Sae Fred will be in the ball, but I think 754 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 2: maybe Party is going to have you know, the thing 755 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 2: that can work in both of these these favors of 756 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,359 Speaker 2: Seattle comes out. It's kind of like that home game. 757 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 2: They gotta sell out against the run and then you 758 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 2: got Party's got to make a mistake early and you 759 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,680 Speaker 2: gotta you can't get down in this game like because 760 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 2: then say Franky could still lean on the run. They 761 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 2: don't have to ask Party to do anything. Carol like 762 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,880 Speaker 2: his m own big games like this, He's going to 763 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 2: try to establish the run, try and you know be 764 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 2: he's conservative early on. So yeah, I can make cases 765 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 2: for different sides of this game, which is which is 766 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 2: always the fear. But from a numbers perspective, it gets 767 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 2: to ten, it gets to forty three. I would have 768 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 2: a small edge on the Seahawks in the under, but 769 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,439 Speaker 2: it's nothing I'm in love with here, which is why 770 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 2: it was left out of our six pound. 771 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, Seattle is you know, they have Kenneth Walker and 772 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 3: they're going to try to, like you said, just run 773 00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 3: him down. 774 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,839 Speaker 1: Maybe a first half under ah, you. 775 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:53,960 Speaker 2: Know, but put say it. Yeah, sure, and yeah, I 776 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 2: guess well let's before we leave. That's pretty much it. 777 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,880 Speaker 2: We should we take a stab at saying right now, 778 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,320 Speaker 2: who beat two in the Super Bowl. 779 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 3: Oh, I mean we could just do moneyline dogs just 780 00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 3: you know, like just for the people. 781 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:09,840 Speaker 2: Let's do it. 782 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 1: I mean, just. 783 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,839 Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends. 784 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,960 Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. 785 00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,799 Speaker 2: You got all right, Yeah, let's do Let's do money 786 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:28,719 Speaker 2: line dogs for the people. I have a feeling like 787 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,239 Speaker 2: so I don't think this either, feeling You're gonna go 788 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 2: to the Giants. But I'll see. But like I don't 789 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:36,200 Speaker 2: think that the Seahawks can win. And they could, but 790 00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,759 Speaker 2: I just I don't. I'm not betting it. I don't 791 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 2: think that the Miami has a shot. And it's got 792 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 2: to be the Ravens. We're going Baltimore Ravens Baby in 793 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 2: Sincy twenty to seventeen. Final score talker, walk off field goal. 794 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 1: Oh I like it, all right? 795 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 3: You know what, since I went with the Giants already, 796 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 3: I'll actually go with the Bucks because I feel like 797 00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,319 Speaker 3: the Bucks have a really good shot at winning. Uh 798 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 3: this you're not getting much on the money line, it's 799 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 3: plus one sixteen. But I think Dallas is that that's 800 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,360 Speaker 3: a tough opponent, especially like you said, if the Bucks 801 00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 3: are healthier on defense, which they will be at home. 802 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 3: It just doesn't bode to a Dallas not playing well lately. 803 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 3: Just getting bad vibes here from the Cowboys. 804 00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,920 Speaker 2: Yep, yeah, I love it all right, So Ravens Bucks. 805 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 2: And for one trend that I forgot that did shock me. 806 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,160 Speaker 2: I forgot to mention double dig your underdogs in the 807 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 2: wild card one in seven against the spread the last 808 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:32,280 Speaker 2: twelve years. 809 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why. 810 00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 2: Wow. 811 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:38,080 Speaker 3: You know, I don't hate Buffalo, to be honest, Like, yeah, 812 00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 3: I thought about laying it. I just I mean, it's 813 00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:44,719 Speaker 3: just weighing what thirteen points is tough. That's why I 814 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 3: might actually, wait, you know the first half, you can 815 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 3: find some six and a half juiced up maybe you 816 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,799 Speaker 3: do that too, but I'm trying to find different ways 817 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,960 Speaker 3: to invest in Buffalo. Laying the thirteen just feels kind 818 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,000 Speaker 3: of steep. But I actually don't hate it. I just 819 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 3: with Skylar time, and I know they got some town 820 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 3: on on the skill positions, but with Skylar. 821 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 2: Also, what is that waddles banged up? He didn't practice today, right, 822 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 2: that's as usual. 823 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,200 Speaker 1: I think I think he'll be fine. Tends not to practice, 824 00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 1: but Hill got banged up in the last game. I 825 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 1: know that. Yeah, I'm more worried about the Bills offense, 826 00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,480 Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean the Dolphins. 827 00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 3: They're gonna have to keep up with the Bills to 828 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,880 Speaker 3: like cover that number, and without without two, it's just 829 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:23,799 Speaker 3: gonna be even with Teddy, I think it would be tough. 830 00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,879 Speaker 2: So yep, agreed, all right. 831 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 3: Uh so, yeah, we got Ravens plus three, ten Bucks 832 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:30,480 Speaker 3: plus one sixteen. 833 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:31,440 Speaker 1: See how that plays out. 834 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:33,439 Speaker 3: I do like the Giants to win obviously as well, 835 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,400 Speaker 3: but uh, you know, we already talked about them, so 836 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,400 Speaker 3: uh we'll can show some love to the Bucks. 837 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:40,440 Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. 838 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:44,719 Speaker 3: For the wild Card Weekend Action Network podcast presented by 839 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,840 Speaker 3: Fan Duel. Of course, you can follow Stucky in the 840 00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,879 Speaker 3: Action Network app at Stucky two and meet at Chris 841 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,319 Speaker 3: Raybaun where you can find all of our bets. You 842 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,359 Speaker 3: can track your own as well. You can also find 843 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,360 Speaker 3: all of the content in the app or on Action Network. 844 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 3: Come and we'll be back next week. Keep doing this 845 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,360 Speaker 3: so until next time, we'll get this shwee. 846 00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:19,000 Speaker 2: Of course, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If 847 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,400 Speaker 2: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 848 00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 849 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:24,840 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler