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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Jolle Wisenthal.

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Speaker 2: Joe, does it feel like we're at a turning point

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Speaker 2: of some sort? I feel like that's always a dangerous

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Speaker 2: question to ask on a podcast, because the tendency is

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Speaker 2: to call turning points or say we're at, you know,

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Speaker 2: the beginning of some new structural shift. Yeah, because that's

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Speaker 2: kind of what everyone wants to hear, Right, You.

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Speaker 3: Don't have been thinking about That's like super meta and

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Speaker 3: maybe beyond the scope of anything that we talk about

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Speaker 3: on a podcast. But just since we're talking about big moments.

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Speaker 3: When I was a kid, probably my parents thought that

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Speaker 3: the future would look very different when I'm an adult,

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Speaker 3: you know. But now I think that for my kids

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Speaker 3: the future will look so radically different that that I

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Speaker 3: just can't imagine twenty or thirty years from now anything

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Speaker 3: being remotely similar to it is today, due to various

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Speaker 3: things that we're seeing with tech and geopolitics and things

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Speaker 3: like that.

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Speaker 2: Particularly Ai, I don't know, back to the future promised

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Speaker 2: we'd have flying cars by now, and I'm still waiting.

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Speaker 3: They did get video conference. I guess that's too right,

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Speaker 3: So that's one thing, but yes, you're right.

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Speaker 2: All right. Well, there's obviously plenty that we could talk

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Speaker 2: about when it comes to the future, like what is

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Speaker 2: realistic and what is sort of pie in the sky

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Speaker 2: thinking like flying cars. I suspect we're not going to

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Speaker 2: have those for a while because of various reasons. But

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Speaker 2: one person we do like to speak to when it

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Speaker 2: comes to thinking big picture and kind of talking about

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Speaker 2: these potential paradigm shifts is Steve Eisman. Of course, he's

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Speaker 2: been on the show a couple of times. He's the

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Speaker 2: managing director at Newburger Berman and Steve, thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for coming back on all thoughts.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for having me again.

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Speaker 2: So big picture thoughts, what are you thinking at the moment?

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Speaker 2: The last time we had you on, you were talking

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Speaker 2: about a paradigm shift as interest rates got higher, And

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Speaker 2: it seems like investors are starting to ratchet down their

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Speaker 2: expectations for cuts right now, so we might actually get

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Speaker 2: that higher interest rate environment for longer.

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Speaker 4: You know, let's just start with the FED so we

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Speaker 4: get that out of the way as quickly as possible.

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Speaker 4: I have felt for a long time. The FED is

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Speaker 4: extremely insensitive to its own impact on markets. You know,

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Speaker 4: last was it last week when Powell.

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Speaker 3: Spoke, So we're recording this April second, but he spoke

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Speaker 3: on for I'm.

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Speaker 4: Good, you know, when he said that he thought that

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Speaker 4: because rates are higher, financial conditions are tight. That was

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Speaker 4: a little weird. I mean, right, credit spreads are extremely narrow.

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Speaker 4: I've always felt that, like I said, the Fed's insensitive

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Speaker 4: to its own impact on the markets. It's clearly Fed

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Speaker 4: wants to cut rates. It once seems to want to

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Speaker 4: cut rates very very badly. Why wants to cut rates

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Speaker 4: so badly? I don't understand in that they've engineered something

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Speaker 4: that's really pretty fantastic. You know. Not only is there

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Speaker 4: no soft landing, there doesn't need to be any landing.

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Speaker 4: And as far as you know, the data that I

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Speaker 4: can see, there seems to be something of a reacceleration

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Speaker 4: in the economy right now. So why would you cut rates?

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Speaker 4: What's your rush? You know? The actual What I would say,

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Speaker 4: even though I think the FED is going to cut rates,

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Speaker 4: the fear that I think should be out there is

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Speaker 4: that if they do cut rates and be even more

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Speaker 4: of resurgence in the economy and there'd be a resurgence

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Speaker 4: and inflation. So what's why would you rush to take

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Speaker 4: that risk? I don't get it.

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Speaker 3: It's funny you start off. You started off talking about

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Speaker 3: financial conditions. Actually I wrote about them a little bit

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Speaker 3: more a little bit this morning, and the question that

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Speaker 3: I have in my mind measures of financial conditions are

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Speaker 3: clearly loose, right, so the stock market is basically at

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Speaker 3: all time highs and put into financial conditions as you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: credit spreads are pretty tough, and then of course crypto,

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Speaker 3: which maybe you have thoughts about going to the moon.

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Speaker 3: So all kinds of measures of in liquid market loosening.

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Speaker 3: On the other hand, the IPO window still hasn't totally reopened.

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Speaker 3: It's not obvious that private investment is reaccelerating in some

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Speaker 3: dramatic way, hiring intentions. The labor market continues to at

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Speaker 3: least normalize. It's not falling apart by any stretch, but

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Speaker 3: it's nowhere near where it was. You know a couple

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Speaker 3: of years ago. Are those tight credit spreads and high

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Speaker 3: stock prices translating into the economic variables employment and inflation

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Speaker 3: that the federally cares about.

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Speaker 4: Inflation, I can say I think it's too early to

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Speaker 4: say what's happening there. I mean, the other thing I

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Speaker 4: could say is that from the companies that I speak

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Speaker 4: to on the industrial side, things seem to have reaccelerated

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Speaker 4: this year. Orders it picked up, Supply chain problems aren't

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Speaker 4: as much of an issue. Nobody's really talking about firing anybody,

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Speaker 4: you know. Is it perfect? Yeah? What's perfect?

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Speaker 3: Sure?

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Speaker 4: But things are pretty good. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: My framework for understanding this is that the FED basically

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Speaker 2: can look through loose financial conditions on the assumption that

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Speaker 2: if it does build out investment and a lot of

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Speaker 2: the inflationary pressures that we've seen have come about from

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Speaker 2: supply constraints, then it maybe is reducing inflation longer term

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Speaker 2: rather than leading to additional inflationary pressures. But one thing

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Speaker 2: I have to imagine they might not be huge fans

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Speaker 2: of is crypto. Crypto's back, right. I think bitcoins down

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Speaker 2: as we're recording this, but it surged to a new

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Speaker 2: all time high. I don't think anyone was really expecting

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Speaker 2: crypto to come back in this way when rates are

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Speaker 2: you still at the highest level in DEPA.

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Speaker 4: That's because it has nothing to do with rates. Okay,

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Speaker 4: so well, let's backtrack first. Sure, here's my big uber picture.

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Speaker 4: You look, in bad times, people focus on balance sheets

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Speaker 4: and credit quality, and good times they focus on stories.

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Speaker 4: And there are three I think great stories of our

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Speaker 4: time right now, and those are AI and everything having

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Speaker 4: to do with it, infrastructure, and crypto. And I believe

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Speaker 4: in the first two and I don't believe in the third,

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Speaker 4: the thing about crypto. And here's me getting on my soapbox,

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Speaker 4: so everybody can take this with the grainess whole. I

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Speaker 4: have no position in crypto, and I never have. But

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Speaker 4: you know, there are two issues with respect to crypto.

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Speaker 4: Number one, is it a currency? And number two, if

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Speaker 4: it's a currency, why should you own it? So let's

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Speaker 4: bypass issue number one because that's kind of philosophical and say, okay,

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Speaker 4: it's a currency, why should you own it? And the

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Speaker 4: people who are advocates of crypto will say exactly the

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Speaker 4: same thing, which is that there's a problem with FIA currencies,

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Speaker 4: which is government currencies. There's been too much of it,

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Speaker 4: there's too much bonduitions, there's too much debt, blah blah blah.

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Speaker 4: And so if you want to hedge against FIA currency

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Speaker 4: by crypto, in other words, crypto is like digital gold.

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Speaker 4: If that's the case and the theory is correct, then

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Speaker 4: how should crypto act. Crypto should do well when on

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Speaker 4: days like today where people are starting to worry about

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Speaker 4: inflation again, interest rates are up and the market is

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Speaker 4: down and NASDAK is down, and crypto should do poorly

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Speaker 4: when interest rates are lower, nobody cares about inflation, and

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Speaker 4: Nvidia is up twenty five percent. And how does crypto

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Speaker 4: actually act. It acts exactly opposite to its own thesis,

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Speaker 4: which is the correlation between crypto and NASDAK is very,

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Speaker 4: very very high. So what does that say to me?

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Speaker 4: That crypto is just another way that people like to

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Speaker 4: speculate on because they like to speculate. That's all. That's all.

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Speaker 4: That's its only use. That and money.

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Speaker 3: Laundering, which is a use. Okay, So the three big

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Speaker 3: stories of our time that people are into AI, infrastructure,

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Speaker 3: and crypto, two of which you believe in. We know

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Speaker 3: you don't believe in one of them. Let's go to

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Speaker 3: infrastructure for a second, because you mentioned that you talked

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Speaker 3: to a lot of industrial companies. Companies that would be theoretically,

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Speaker 3: I assume prime to take advantage of a lot of

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Speaker 3: the building out that's going on. So what are they

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Speaker 3: saying to you specifically right now? I mean you mentioned

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Speaker 3: that they're not talking about job cuts, But where are

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Speaker 3: we in the broader infrastructure cycle Because we saw all

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Speaker 3: of this money, we saw these various bill We're.

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Speaker 4: At the beginning. So here's my soapbox again. I think

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Speaker 4: that there are several sort of themes that weave its

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Speaker 4: way into infrastructure. So one is on shoring. You know,

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Speaker 4: the world spent forty years creating global supply chain that

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Speaker 4: was incredibly efficient and inexpensive and deflationary and turned out

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Speaker 4: we all learned during COVID also very brittle. So you're

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Speaker 4: a CEO. You got a free pass the first time.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you had supply chain problems, nobody's going

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Speaker 4: to blame you that you had supply chain problems because

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Speaker 4: of pandemic. Nobody predicted you get one buy that apple.

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Speaker 4: If for some reason you have a supply chain problem, again,

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Speaker 4: that's on you. You get fired for that. So companies

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Speaker 4: are bringing parts of their supply chain back to the

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Speaker 4: United States. That's a ten year story and we're like

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Speaker 4: in year two. That's them one theme. Two is data centers,

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Speaker 4: which is AI offset offshoot, but it also has industrial

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Speaker 4: o implications because number one, the GPUs that Nvidia and

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Speaker 4: AMD is selling utilize three times more electricity than a CPU,

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Speaker 4: and they're also incredibly hotter, so they require a lot

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Speaker 4: more of the whole cooling systems that you have to

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Speaker 4: put into those data centers and brings us to theme three,

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Speaker 4: which is improvement in the grid. Now, the grid needed

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Speaker 4: improvement before because of all the pressure that we're putting

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Speaker 4: on it from electrification, etc. But now that you add

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Speaker 4: the GPUs on top of it, the pressure on the

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Speaker 4: grid is even higher. So you know all the industrial

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Speaker 4: companies that deal with utility that are spending a ton

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Speaker 4: of money to improve their grids. That's also a very

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Speaker 4: long term theme and also pretty much in its early stages.

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Speaker 4: And the last part is greenification, which has been a

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Speaker 4: long standing theme, but it's going to keep going. And

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Speaker 4: you take all four of those boxes and you turbocharge them.

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Speaker 4: By the fact that the United States has not had

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Speaker 4: an industrial policy in anyone's lifetime, and it has one now.

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Speaker 4: The combination of the IRA and the IIJA adds up

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Speaker 4: to about one point two trillion dollars over ten years,

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Speaker 4: So that'll turbocharge all the four themes that it just

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Speaker 4: spoke about. That's why infrastructure is so interesting.

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Speaker 2: So I remember one of the last times we spoke

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Speaker 2: to you, you mentioned a specific company, Quantus Services, which

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Speaker 2: does electrification of the grids something like that.

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Speaker 4: It's an engineering construction company, and one of the things

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Speaker 4: that it does is if utility wants to build a

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Speaker 4: new plant, et cetera, Quanta builds it for.

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Speaker 2: Them, and that one is up. I think around forty

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Speaker 2: percent since we spoke to you, which has been like

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Speaker 2: less than a year or so. Are those the kind

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Speaker 2: of companies that you're trying to find?

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Speaker 4: Yes, they're those. Then there are some, you know, materials

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Speaker 4: companies that are going to be building the roads, the bridges,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, and you know, everything basically that surrounds that world.

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Speaker 2: Would you do pure commodity plays? I mean, copper was

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Speaker 2: a big one.

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Speaker 4: I don't do commodities. These are the things I don't do.

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Speaker 4: I don't do commodities. I don't do oil, I don't

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Speaker 4: trade currency. I don't trade commodities and do any of

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Speaker 4: that stuff. I just buy stocks.

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Speaker 3: Say more about some of these because everyone knows in video,

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Speaker 3: but you do see this in the sell side research

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Speaker 3: that's coming out, which is that everyone is looking for

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Speaker 3: these secondary and tertiary plays on AI and so quantus services.

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Speaker 3: Congratulations on the good pick there, But what are the

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Speaker 3: other types of companies that you're looking at as part

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Speaker 3: of this in areas like cooling, which is obviously going

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Speaker 3: to be huge, or you know, electrical component We got

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Speaker 3: ism manufacturing out yesterday, transformers can you to be in

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Speaker 3: shortage for basically three straight years? What is your process

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Speaker 3: and how are you going about identifying the secondary and

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Speaker 3: tertiary maybe AI data center plays out there.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean there are it's you know, it's all

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Speaker 4: the offshoots of the four boxes that I mentioned. There

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Speaker 4: is the cooling part, there's the grid construction part that

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Speaker 4: there are the utilities that are more on the green

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Speaker 4: side than on the not green side. I mean, there's

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Speaker 4: just a lot to do. I mean, the other thing

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Speaker 4: that people are that we're trying to figure out is, Okay,

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Speaker 4: there's Nvidia, there's a MD There's there's Microsoft, you know,

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Speaker 4: one of our newer stocks. There's Oracle, you know, anyone

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Speaker 4: who has a huge database of anything consumer businesses. You know,

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Speaker 4: in the world of AI is probably sitting on a

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Speaker 4: gold mine. Whether the question is whether they can monetize it.

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Speaker 4: And then then the next level, which I don't have

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Speaker 4: an answer to, is Okay, everybody's trying to invent apps.

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Speaker 4: Whose apps are going to do well? Although my guess

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Speaker 4: is that one of the bigger beneficiaries is probably going

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Speaker 4: to be Apple, because at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: the consumer I can't possibly predict what apps are going

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Speaker 4: to do well. But let's assume they're a bunch of them,

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Speaker 4: and let's assume that a bunch of them are for

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Speaker 4: the consumer. I have no idea what those are, but

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Speaker 4: let's assume that they exist, they are created, people are

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Speaker 4: going to use them on their phone, so AI is

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Speaker 4: going to have to be on the phone, which so

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Speaker 4: you know, assume what I'm hearing is that Apple is

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Speaker 4: talking to every AI creator in the world to say,

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Speaker 4: you know, come on our platform because we'll make your

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Speaker 4: app more efficient. They'll probably roll something out in June

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Speaker 4: when they have their I don't know if it's an

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Speaker 4: investor day or tech day, but you know, Apple potentially

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Speaker 4: eventually is going to be one of the bigger beneficiaries

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Speaker 4: in the second wave.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of waves, This is one of the reasons we

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Speaker 2: wanted to talk to you. How do you separate the

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Speaker 2: hype around owned AI versus the reality the real opportunity

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Speaker 2: there because we are seeing this dynamic in the market

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Speaker 2: now where you know, companies are just mentioning AI in

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Speaker 2: their press release. Right, everyone's doing AI, everyone's looking into AI.

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Speaker 2: And again, one of the reasons we like talking to

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Speaker 2: you is because you are well known for the due

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Speaker 2: diligence that you do on various things, most famously on

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Speaker 2: the housing market before two thousand and eight. So how

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Speaker 2: are you separating the sort of fact from fiction here?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, the facts are that AI at this

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Speaker 4: point is really only benefiting a very small number of companies,

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Speaker 4: most of whom were very, very very large. So that's

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Speaker 4: we have focused our attention on everything else at this

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Speaker 4: point seems to me to be hype or potential, and

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Speaker 4: we don't own those companies. We own the ones where

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Speaker 4: what's obvious. After that, we'll sing.

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Speaker 3: It, you know. Tracy asked about the due diligence process,

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Speaker 3: and I sort of want to keep driving at this

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Speaker 3: because you mentioned one company, but like, there are a

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Speaker 3: bunch of companies out there that probably sell some component

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Speaker 3: that is useful for utilities. There's probably various companies out

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Speaker 3: there that sell cables that connect those and video chips

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Speaker 3: from one to another, and there's various companies that sell

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Speaker 3: cooling solutions, et cetera. And so in that due diligence process,

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Speaker 3: like how do you start that, Like what is your

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Speaker 3: sort of open up the window of like what does

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Speaker 3: it look like the process of identifying them?

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Speaker 4: Well in terms of let's talk on the infrastructure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's the part of it.

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Speaker 4: I have narrowed down that world to where I think

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Speaker 4: it's significant to about eighty company Okay, And of those eighty,

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Speaker 4: I would say about thirty are very very interesting. The

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Speaker 4: other fifty or not so interesting at this point?

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Speaker 3: Is that a function of when it's the eighty or

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Speaker 3: the thirty? Is that about talking to people in the

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Speaker 3: space and saying, hey, what products do you use?

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Speaker 4: No, I mean it's I mean, I've been doing research

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Speaker 4: on this for the last two years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so what does that look like.

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Speaker 4: It's a lot of work, It's a lot of reading,

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Speaker 4: you know, it's going to a lot of meetings. You know.

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Speaker 4: The area that I find is not interesting, for example,

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Speaker 4: is residential solar Resisolar, I think is just an area

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Speaker 4: that did very, very well during COVID, but was actually

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Speaker 4: a major beneficiary of zero rates because people who put

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Speaker 4: a you know, it costs about thirty thousand dollars to

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Speaker 4: put a solar system on your roof, and ninety nine

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Speaker 4: percent of people finance it. And when they were financing

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Speaker 4: it during COVID, they were financing it at three percent,

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Speaker 4: and today, if they need to finance it, they're going

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Speaker 4: to need to fancy it at around nine And one

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Speaker 4: thing I learned in great school is that nine is

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Speaker 4: a lot more than three, and so sales are negative.

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Speaker 4: Now how long they'll stay negative, I don't know, but

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Speaker 4: I'm not interested in speculating about it, because the fundamentals

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Speaker 4: right now are poor. On the other hand, you know,

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Speaker 4: just from a pure fundamental perspective, some of the solar

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Speaker 4: panel companies that sell stuff to utility they're doing quite well.

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Speaker 2: So the other thing that's happened since we last spoke

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Speaker 2: to you is that we are about ten or twelve

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Speaker 2: months closer to a presidential election in the US. Does

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Speaker 2: the infrastructure thesis take a hit if we were to

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Speaker 2: get Trump in office?

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Speaker 4: This perception is reality, so the perception would be that

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Speaker 4: a Republican administration would be less positive on gratification, and

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Speaker 4: so maybe some of those stocks would take a hit

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Speaker 4: because of rhetoric. I think the reality is number one,

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Speaker 4: and the states that benefit for most of this stuff

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Speaker 4: are actually red states, including on the solar side. And

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Speaker 4: number two. You know, one of the reasons why US

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Speaker 4: solar panel companies, like a coupley like First Solar doing

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Speaker 4: so well is because there are major tariffs against Chinese

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Speaker 4: solar producers. Those tariffs were created by President Trump, not

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Speaker 4: by President Biden. President Biden just reaffirmed them. So at

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Speaker 4: the end of the day, I don't think it's gonna matter,

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Speaker 4: although there'll be a lot of noise.

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Speaker 3: On the near shoring. You know, this is one of

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Speaker 3: those things where it's always hard, at least from my

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Speaker 3: perspective to disentangle like what's talk. You know, you see

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Speaker 3: a lot of like there might be like a McKinsey

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Speaker 3: white paper about the benefits of near shoring, and it's like, okay.

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Speaker 4: But oh I don't care about stuff.

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Speaker 3: Yeah no, no, I know, I know. So I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to like understand like the what are they doing specifically

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Speaker 3: the companies, the industrial companies that you're talking to, what

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Speaker 3: actually is being built either in the US.

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Speaker 4: You know it is a long like, you know, two

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Speaker 4: hour conversation kind of Look, there's some factories that are

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Speaker 4: being built here. There's some chip factories being bilit here.

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Speaker 4: There's some other kinds of factories being built here. You

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Speaker 4: know they All you need to do is listen to

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Speaker 4: let's say the Eaton conference call when they report, to

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Speaker 4: understand that they're doing very very well, and they'll do

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Speaker 4: very well for a long time because of those trends.

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Speaker 4: Eating corp Yes, etn etn'. I don't own it, but

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Speaker 4: I done a lot of research on it. You can't

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Speaker 4: own everything. And they're a company saying what, that's a

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Speaker 4: company that does electrification for factories.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this stalks on well, and they're saying what specifically on.

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Speaker 4: Their calls, they got a lot of orders.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that's what they're saying. I'm looking at those share

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Speaker 3: Eating Corporation, POC manufacturers engineered products for industrial vehicle construction,

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Speaker 3: commercial on aerospace markets.

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Speaker 4: Or take a company right products, fluid connect Take a

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Speaker 4: company like a newer company. It's not it's an older company,

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Speaker 4: but it's a new company listen called CRH which is

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Speaker 4: a materials company. The headquarters is in Ireland, but seventy

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Speaker 4: five percent of the business in the United States. They

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Speaker 4: do roads, cement, all that stuff. And on the commercial side,

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Speaker 4: things are picking up, and they're partially picking up because

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Speaker 4: of the IRA and the IgA. Money just starting to

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Speaker 4: be spent. And one of the things that was sent

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Speaker 4: on the conference call by the CFO was that this

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Speaker 4: is this is now golden age for infrastructure. I never

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Speaker 4: heard anybody say I call this a golden age for

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Speaker 4: their industry, but he said it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, some of the stocks they look a little ai

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Speaker 2: ish when you look at the charts.

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Speaker 3: Street line yeah, straight line up.

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Speaker 4: So CRCH is funny because this is a perfect example

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Speaker 4: of why the thesis that markets are efficient is sometimes nonsense.

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Speaker 4: So CRCH was a Irish listed UK listed company with

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Speaker 4: seventy five percent of its businesses in the US. So

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Speaker 4: materials companies in Europe sell it literally half the multiples

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Speaker 4: of US companies for whatever reason. And of course all

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Speaker 4: the cell side analysts who covered CRCH were European analysts,

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Speaker 4: and the people who cover Volcan materials, let's say, are

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Speaker 4: US analysts. So crch and September relisted in the US

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Speaker 4: under thesis said hey, we might get a better valuation

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Speaker 4: because we're seventy five percent US, and all of a

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Speaker 4: sudden people are And that's what we started to buy

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Speaker 4: it because we said to ourselves, this thing sells it

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Speaker 4: less than half the multiple of its US comps because

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Speaker 4: it has a different audience.

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Speaker 2: That's so funn that's like cell side analyst arbitrage.

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Speaker 4: That's exactly what, exactly right, it was cell side analyst arbitrage,

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Speaker 4: and all of a sudden you had US analysts pick

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Speaker 4: it up and say, wait a second, this is seventy

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Speaker 4: five percent US. What am I missing? Huh?

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Speaker 2: So one thing that comes up in infrastructure conversations is

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Speaker 2: this idea of crowding out. So the government is spending

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Speaker 2: billions and billions of dollars through various programs on building

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Speaker 2: out infrastructure, I identifying new opportunities, and you know, we

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Speaker 2: speak to people like Jiggershaw from the Department of Energy's

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Speaker 2: Loan Office program about how he makes his investments as

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Speaker 2: a private investor. Do you ever feel like you're competing

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Speaker 2: with the government in this area in things like renewables

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Speaker 2: or green energy, or innation.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I don't do private investing, so it's not

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Speaker 4: my problem. I just do public equities.

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Speaker 2: Okay, But as a non government investor, do you feel

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Speaker 2: like it's harder to identify opportunities because the government is

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Speaker 2: in the mix now more than they used to be, or.

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Speaker 4: It's just another part of the story.

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Speaker 2: Huh, how do you take it into account?

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Speaker 4: They're spending money just trying to figure out who's benefiting.

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Speaker 4: Just follow the money, follow the money.

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Speaker 3: On electrification, you mentioned the grid, and there seems to

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Speaker 3: be this incredibly wide consensus that the grid is not

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Speaker 3: currently sufficient.

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Speaker 4: That is what in Silicon Valley and the tech world.

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Speaker 4: That's what they're worried about. They're all talking, they're all

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Speaker 4: petrified of it.

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Speaker 3: Who's going to pay for it?

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Speaker 2: Is?

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Speaker 3: This was not something the IRA spent a lot of

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Speaker 3: money in a lot of areas, but it did not

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Speaker 3: really do anything for the grid itself. And there is

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Speaker 3: even a lot of acknowledgement.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's five hundred billion dollars in tax credits for

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Speaker 4: green energy stuff. Sure, absolutely, And so you know a

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Speaker 4: company Lightinexterra, which is will build let's say a solar field,

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Speaker 4: gets a tax credit to do it. Yes, so that

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Speaker 4: does that does help.

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Speaker 3: Then there's the lines and the wires, and so there's

434
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 3: all these questions about regulations, and there's the question about money,

435
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: et cetera. Who's paying for basically the I mean you

436
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 3: mentioned generation on the solar field side, who's paying for

437
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 3: the lines that will connect all these solar fields?

438
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 4: All the utilities are doing that. Okay, So if you

439
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 4: look at the end of every year, when all the

440
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 4: utilities are put their fourth quarter, at least most of them,

441
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:06,479
Speaker 4: they put out their three year capex budget projections, so

442
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 4: they only comes out once a year. So we just

443
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 4: went through that period. So of the twenty companies that

444
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 4: are very good Newburger Bermam Utility Analyst covers, the average

445
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 4: increase in the three year capex budget is twenty percent.

446
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: Over the last year over the last year.

447
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 4: In other words, a three year combined forward is twenty

448
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 4: percent higher than than last year's three year budget. That's

449
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 4: basically twenty percent because you're adding one more year or

450
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,239
Speaker 4: something like that. That's a lot of money, you know,

451
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 4: and it's been going up and up and up and

452
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 4: up and up every single year because utilities keep spending

453
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 4: money to improve their grids.

454
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: What's the investment opportunity there though? Do you buy the

455
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: actual utilities or do you buy the sort of like peripheration.

456
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 4: You can buy some of the utilities, you know, Unfortunately,

457
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 4: utilities are very interest rate sensitive stocks. So and you know,

458
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 4: in a day life today, probably I'm guessing because rates

459
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 4: or op utilities will go down.

460
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: But the market opens in two minutes.

461
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 4: But I think some of the utilities that are more

462
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: on the greenish side are an interesting opportunity.

463
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: So you've been looking at the infrastructure space for two

464
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: years now, as you mentioned, what was the surprising thing

465
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: you learned or how does this particular industry vary from

466
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: other areas that you have looked at previously.

467
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 4: I think the big change is that if you take

468
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 4: all the eighty companies, most of them are what would

469
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 4: traditionally be considered very cyclical companies, very traditional cyclical, cyclical

470
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 4: companies with no good secular story other than how's the

471
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 4: economy doing. And for the first time and since I

472
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 4: can remember, this whole group now has a real secular story.

473
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 4: You know, not that they're not sick, they are cyclical,

474
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 4: but they have secular tailwinds that they've never really had before,

475
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 4: and those tailwinds are going to last quite a long time.

476
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 3: That's the change the xcel u E t F has opened.

477
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 3: It's down a little bit, but down about a tenth

478
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 3: of a percent. There you go. You can count that.

479
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: Count that count for me. Yeah, count that as a

480
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: w So. Sticking on this theme of the grid and electrification,

481
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 3: actually you mentioned oh now it's up, it's up, so

482
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: I'm taking it all. Okay, now it's flat.

483
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 4: Well, you know what they say about our business. Peacock today,

484
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 4: feather duster tomorrow.

485
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 3: That's a good one. No, this is the question I

486
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 3: want to ask those three year projections that the utilities

487
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 3: are coming up with, and you sort of talk about

488
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 3: this shift from cyclical industries to secular, how did those

489
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 3: three year projections compare us a five years ago and

490
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: no one was talking about AI and no one was

491
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 3: talking about the elect or very.

492
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 4: I wish I wrot my charge, okay, and I don't

493
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 4: have my chart, but my guess is that the cap

494
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 4: the three year CAPEX budget today versus five years ago,

495
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 4: it's probably fifty percent higher at least. Yeah.

496
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 3: This is something that Jiggershah who Tracy mentioned, has talked

497
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 3: about which is then basically for the first time and

498
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: forever actual there's growth, and then demand which there basically

499
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: wasn't before.

500
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 4: Correct.

501
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,239
Speaker 2: Wait, can I ask something slightly off topic, but I

502
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: think is of interest. So we recently had the sentencing

503
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: of Sam Bankman freed, and he was the subject of

504
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: a Michael Lewis book, as were you in a very

505
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,959
Speaker 2: different capacity. Have you heard from Michael Lewis at all?

506
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 2: Do you keep in touch with him?

507
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 4: We haven't spoken in a couple of years now.

508
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: Did you follow the SPF trial very marginally?

509
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 4: I have really an opinion about it.

510
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 2: Did you read the book?

511
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 4: I did not read the book.

512
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 2: Okay, this isn't a very interesting line.

513
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 3: I like that was a good line of questioning, Tracy.

514
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: I try.

515
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 3: It had the potential, had.

516
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 4: The potential to go somewhere. Unfortunately it's not going on.

517
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 4: The guest shot it down.

518
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right. So I hear all this stuff about

519
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 2: excitement about data centers, and as far as I can tell,

520
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 2: like part of the play is investing in I guess

521
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 2: data center reads something like that, Well they're only two.

522
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, right?

523
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: Or you invest in like HVAC and the companies that

524
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 2: do the cooling around them. Yeah, so how do you

525
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: actually play that thesis? That's what I don't get.

526
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, like I said, you can own everything,

527
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 4: So I mean, I'm not gonna talk about what I

528
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: have a position at these things. You know, Verdive is

529
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 4: the sort of the pure play to sell cooling stuff

530
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 4: into data centers. The stock has gone stratispheric. You know,

531
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 4: the multiple is really high, so you're playing there's a

532
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 4: lot of risk in that, not that the fundamentals are bad.

533
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 4: Equin X and Digital Realty are a more steady eddy

534
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 4: kind of play. You know, what you're dealing with is

535
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: that the whole AI story is coming and so the

536
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 4: demand is going to go up, but you're still dealing

537
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 4: with CAPEX budgets having come down in tech, so the

538
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 4: growth is still not great or as good as people

539
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: would hope, but it's coming. So that that's seen and

540
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 4: yang on the data centers and they are only two

541
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 4: of them.

542
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: One of the things that we've seen with data centers,

543
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: and I think it was a few weeks ago, there

544
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 3: were some headlines about Microsoft wanting to have on site

545
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 3: nuclear power generation and we've talked a little bit about

546
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: on this show about the hope the promise of small

547
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 3: modular reactors, which haven't really taken off, but maybe that

548
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 3: could be a solution for some of these huge CAPEX data.

549
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: Have you looked at nuclear at all?

550
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 4: I haven't looked at nuclear. The regulatory situation there is

551
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: just so complicated, you know. The one kind of I

552
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: think it was a Constellation Energy is the utility that's

553
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 4: done incredibly well because it has nuclear, but it's not creating,

554
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 4: as far as I know, more nuclear plants. It's just

555
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 4: that the value of its existing nuclear plants have gone

556
00:29:59,400 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 4: up a lot.

557
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 3: That is a nice looking stock. On the other hand,

558
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 3: New Scale who's tickers literally SMR standing for small modular reactors,

559
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 3: That stock has not done so well, though it did

560
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 3: get a pop. I guess on that Microsoft headline.

561
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 2: It is interesting. One of the things that's sort of

562
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: emerging from those conversation is even though we're talking about

563
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: new technologies and things like that, a lot of the

564
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,719
Speaker 2: benefits seem to be accruing to the biggest players in

565
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 2: the market. So like the big companies, I don't think

566
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: this time last year anyone would have expected Microsoft to

567
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: emerge as a leader in AI, and yet that's exactly

568
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: what's happened. Is that what people should be focused on, Like,

569
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: who's going to dominate these CAPEX heavy tech plays. It's

570
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 2: going to be the guys with the money and the

571
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: like existing connections.

572
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 4: I mean, that's two parts to this. There's no question

573
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 4: at this point the dominant players are the big boys

574
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 4: and they're going to be spending the money. And then

575
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 4: you know, they'll be interesting smaller companies that create apps,

576
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 4: and we have no idea who those are at this point.

577
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 4: None one day they'll show up on your phone.

578
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: Something I'm curious about with the data center reads is

579
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 3: that their reads. I mean, I'm sure, I know they

580
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 3: talk about the AI opportunity and the demand for compute

581
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,959
Speaker 3: that's going to in theoretic theoretically keep exploding for years.

582
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: But on the other hand, like they're not Google, they're

583
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: not Amazon with AWS, they're not in Nvidia. Is there

584
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: a risk that like they just can't compete with the

585
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 3: sort of like specialized, more tech forward companies that are

586
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: at the very cutting edge of this.

587
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, the hyperscalers want to build their

588
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 4: own data centers, but you know, an Equinex for example,

589
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 4: services everybody who's not a hyperscaler, So they will do

590
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 4: really well when all the apps that are going to

591
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 4: be created get created and people need to put their

592
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 4: stuff in the cloud, they'll do it through equinex. So

593
00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 4: it really Digital Realty is more of a hyperscaler.

594
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: Can you see more about Oracle? For a long time

595
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: I sort of thought of that. They always seem to

596
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: be straddling in my mind where it's like, and I

597
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: don't know that much about the company, but they always

598
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 3: seem to be sort of on the cusp of like,

599
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: are they in the category of the hyperscalers. Are they

600
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 3: sort of a legacy software database business that you know, well, they.

601
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: Are legacy software database business that's moving to the cloud. Yes,

602
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 4: they're an AI play. You know. The problem with the

603
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 4: stock has been that every couple of quarters they have

604
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 4: a really bad quarter and they say sorry by this

605
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 4: most right, But in this most recent quarter it seems

606
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 4: to have at least for now gotten their act together.

607
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 3: And what's working for them.

608
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 4: You know, the demand because of AI or moving stuff

609
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: into the cloud, to move their database into the cloud,

610
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 4: seems to be increasing. Their problem, they say, is that

611
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 4: they haven't been able to buy enough chips to satisfy

612
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 4: the demand. You know, when you think about that, that's

613
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 4: probably it's a better problem to have than the alternative.

614
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 4: And they seem to be getting their act together, so

615
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 4: you know, they finally announced a good quarter and people

616
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 4: got excited about it, which is why the stock finally

617
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 4: did well. That's a more recent purchase of ours.

618
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 2: Have you tried any of the AI chatbots yet? Chat gpt,

619
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 2: you're too old? You know you can make you can

620
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 2: make comic books on some of them.

621
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 4: Yes, that you should make a comic book on a

622
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 4: chat chat Joe.

623
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: I didn't realize Steve's a comic book fan.

624
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: Yes, so is there what's the comic book play?

625
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 4: There's no comic book investing plan that I know of

626
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 4: comic You know, the comic bit is a small.

627
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: Business, but you're really into comic books totally.

628
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 4: I own the one of the largest digital comic book

629
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 4: collections in the world.

630
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: What does it mean?

631
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 2: What is that.

632
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 4: Way?

633
00:33:58,720 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 3: What is it?

634
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 4: Instead of buying a physical book, you now read your

635
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 4: book on your kindle. So comic books became the same thing.

636
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 4: There was an app called Comicsology where you would buy

637
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 4: your comic on Comicsology and you read it on your iPad,

638
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 4: and Amazon bought it, and so my comic book collection

639
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 4: is now in my kindle. So the size of my

640
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 4: comic book collection, I'm very proud to say, as of

641
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 4: this morning, was ten eight hundred and sixty three comics,

642
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 4: on which I have read every single one, for real,

643
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 4: for real, I'm doing this since twenty twelve.

644
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 3: You know, I imagine, like, I don't know, I mean,

645
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: what's the attraction, what's the attraction spending so much of

646
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 3: your time here in life?

647
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 4: I like to read.

648
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: I read a lot of books, read non comic books.

649
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 4: I read a tremendous number of books, books, nonfiction and fiction,

650
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 4: and I've always enjoyed reading comics, and the comics have

651
00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 4: actually gotten very, very sophisticated in terms of literature, and

652
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 4: I enjoy reading them.

653
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 2: What's your favorite?

654
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 4: Oh, that's easy. The greatest comic book ever written is

655
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 4: Sandman Oh by Neil gam Yeah.

656
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 2: I used to have a Sandman themed tarot card deck

657
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: for some reason, even though I know.

658
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 4: The first season on Netflix was actually quite good.

659
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 3: What's it about? I don't know anything about.

660
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 4: Salmon is the god of dreams.

661
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 3: My son is into Spider Man, so I'm trying to

662
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: like bond with him by like getting him.

663
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 4: I could write a dissertation on Spider Man.

664
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 3: Oh literally, what would.

665
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 4: You actually have a little might have a literary theory

666
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 4: of Spider Man.

667
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 3: Good, tell me this. I need some stuff to like

668
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 3: bond with my son over this.

669
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 4: Well, you should get your son to read the newer

670
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 4: Spider Man who's called Miles Morales. Oh yeah, he loves

671
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 4: Lyles Miles. So my literary theory on Spider Man is

672
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 4: that Peter Parker was actually Jewish.

673
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 3: Metaphor keep going, see here's why.

674
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 4: So first of all, the guy who created him, Stanley

675
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 4: is Jewish or was Jewish. Who is Peter Parker? So

676
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 4: Peter Parker is raised by his elderly, kindly aunt who

677
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 4: looks like your Jewish grandmother. He marries the girl next door,

678
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 4: who's who's the gorgeous non Jewish girls every Jewish boys fantasy,

679
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 4: and and and he and he's consumed by he's a

680
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 4: science geek nerd. And he's consumed by a sense of

681
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 4: guilt and social responsibility. So who is that? That's that

682
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,439
Speaker 4: Jewish kid? This is this that's my literary theory. I've

683
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 4: had it for a very long time.

684
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 3: Do you think Superman is Jewish.

685
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 4: Definitely not, absolutely not, although he was created by Jewish guys.

686
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, because I thought he was Jewish because some of

687
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 3: the other names of his like relatives, and I don't Again,

688
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 3: I'm not a big comic person, but like they have

689
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: sort of I thought they sounded sort of Niskay, you're

690
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: way off.

691
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm desperately trying to think of some sort of

692
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: finance or markets related.

693
00:36:58,800 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 3: Comic book, some way to bring this.

694
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 2: We could just talk about comic books.

695
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 4: Well, the only thing you could bring it up to

696
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 4: is I have no opinion on Disney, Okay, but I

697
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 4: can tell you what I think is wrong with the

698
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 4: Marvel comic book movies.

699
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 2: Tell us Disney owns.

700
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: Disney owns Marvel, and that's been a big source of

701
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 4: their profitability. So I think the problem with Marvel is

702
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 4: that they've lost their story. And they are two parts

703
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 4: of this. So part one was they had a great story.

704
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 4: It was a very complicated story where the villain only

705
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 4: got revealed years after they started the whole process. You know,

706
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 4: it was multiple stories with tangents, but in the end

707
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 4: all wolve it's way back into the last two movies.

708
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 4: And then it was over, and they have not been

709
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 4: able to find a new story, and they've been basically

710
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,720
Speaker 4: floundering because they don't have one. And the other major problem,

711
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 4: which is even more serious than the first, is that

712
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 4: there's a concept in comics called the trinity. So in

713
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,760
Speaker 4: DC it's Superman, Batman, and Wonder Woman. That's the core,

714
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 4: And in Marvel it's Captain America, Thor and Iron Man.

715
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 4: And at the end of the last Marvel comic, iron

716
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 4: Man's dead. Captain America is over ninety years old, and unfortunately,

717
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 4: since then, Thor has been made into a comedic joke.

718
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: So you've lost your trinity. So even if you had

719
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,479
Speaker 4: a story, nobody, I don't who's going to care because

720
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 4: because people care about those three characters with anything else

721
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 4: and they're gone, can't make thesis.

722
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 2: They you just start the whole thing over. Well, you

723
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: can read both Spider.

724
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 4: Man, but you know you have to get new, Uh,

725
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 4: you have to start for fresh. I don't know if

726
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 4: they're willing to do that yet.

727
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 3: This is such a refreshing, interesting take. We could just

728
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: talk about this because I do know like as someone

729
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 3: who I kind of like going to the movies, but

730
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: unlike you, I was never a big comic book reader

731
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 3: during that sort of Marvel era of movies, when it

732
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 3: just seemed like the only movies that were in the

733
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 3: theaters were just these endless superhero movies. I just like

734
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: totally tuned down, and so I was there religiously.

735
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 4: Yeah.

736
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 3: So, but I for one was like kind of I

737
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 3: am relieved and sort of the idea of Hollywood's are

738
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 3: going post superhero and maybe making movies again like Oppenheimer

739
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 3: with normal people.

740
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 4: By the way, Dune Part two was very good.

741
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: I've been meaning to.

742
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 2: I haven't seen it yet.

743
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 3: No spoilers, I haven't seen it yet either, but I

744
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 3: don't know. I for one am excited about a sort

745
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 3: of post superhero.

746
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: That's that's fine. I'm just talking about the problem with Marvelers. Yeah,

747
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 4: but it's but it's a big connect to Disney.

748
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 3: But right, but it's connected.

749
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 4: Right.

750
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 3: So it's like these stories have just gotten tired for

751
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 3: people because there's nowhere to go for them.

752
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 4: Well, you you need a new story, you need and

753
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 4: they haven't found one, you know. So if I go back,

754
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 4: you know, and I'll show you how into this. I

755
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 4: Am Loki. Season three was terrible. The Marvel's movie, which

756
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 4: is recently was awful. Guardians of the Game, Like, what

757
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 4: made it awful? Because they all look awful. It was

758
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 4: just stupid. The story was dumb, it wasn't interesting, and

759
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 4: they tried to make it too much of a They

760
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 4: have a tendency to try and make the movies too funny,

761
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 4: and it doesn't translate very well anymore. And then the

762
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 4: Guardians of the Galaxy Part three was so boring. I

763
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 4: almost walked out three times.

764
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 2: Was that one disturbed me because there's a lot of

765
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 2: animal cruelty in that one and it was just kind

766
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 2: of sad to watch.

767
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 4: There was a lot of animal cruelty to it. They

768
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: tried to make it relevant. Yeah, it was just a

769
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 4: bad story.

770
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. Has the market for comic books changed in the

771
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 2: sense that so everyone knows if you have a really

772
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,720
Speaker 2: successful comic book. Nowadays you can get a franchise attached

773
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 2: to a film franchise. Does anyone come up with characters

774
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 2: based on the idea of like what will play well

775
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 2: on screen? Overall? It feels like you don't actually get

776
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 2: that many new characters in new comic books.

777
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 4: That many new comics there really.

778
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: Are seems a shame. It seems like it would solve

779
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 2: the story problem if we were actually coming up with

780
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 2: new stories.

781
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 4: Well, there's new stories, and then there's new characters. There's

782
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 4: always new stories. But you know the problem with Marvel

783
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 4: is they don't have a story. They just don't have

784
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 4: a story.

785
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 3: I didn't realize that. I didn't anything about this. I

786
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 3: just sort of assumed that there every superhero thing was

787
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 3: just sort of this endless story that could go on forever.

788
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 3: Well it does.

789
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 4: But when you're making movies, yeah, you know, they what

790
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 4: they had was this They had all these different origin stories.

791
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 4: But then at the end of the day, all the

792
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 4: movies were going towards this one central story, which was

793
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 4: the last two movies, and then it was over. So

794
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 4: now you got to like start again, and they haven't

795
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 4: been able to find how to start again.

796
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 2: Here's my desperate attempt to bring us back to our

797
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 2: core content. If you could come up with a comic finance,

798
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 2: investing markets economics crossover, what would it be?

799
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 4: Oh, boy, I don't know, I don't know.

800
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 2: That's that's that's super portfolio.

801
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 4: No, no, you know. I used to joke when I

802
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 4: was Halloween, I'd take my kids around just as me

803
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 4: and they'd say, who I say, I'm a hedge fund manager.

804
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 4: I'm the scariest person.

805
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: That's low effort.

806
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 3: Should we go back to some of your big themes?

807
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 4: Sure? Why not? Okay, this was more fun though.

808
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 3: I mean, actually, this has been a true light bulb

809
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 3: moment because all I knew is that people weren't really

810
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 3: watching the Marvel movie is the way they were three

811
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 3: or four year old. And now for the first time

812
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 3: it took me.

813
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 4: Especially now that one of my favorite characters has always

814
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 4: been four h huh and the last movie was so bad.

815
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 4: I was offended. Really, yes, it's like, how dare you

816
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 4: do that to my character?

817
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 3: Interesting? God, I really don't know exactly where to take this,

818
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 3: but let's I want to let's just maybe go back

819
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 3: to some of the infrastructure sure questions. It sounds to

820
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 3: me like and maybe this is a sort of investing

821
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 3: philosophy question. And you mentioned the sort of the cell

822
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 3: side analyst arbitrage with that one company that got listed here.

823
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 3: You mentioned the fact that even if there's a change

824
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 3: in administration, that doesn't necessarily change the underlying stories. It

825
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 3: sounds to me like, from a philosophical perspective, your view

826
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 3: is there are big long term trends and don't count.

827
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: Don't presume they're all priced in immediately. Even if we

828
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 3: can all agree that there's ten years of growing electricity demand,

829
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 3: there's ten years of demand for greater cooling solutions or

830
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 3: whatever it is, or more cement or more copper.

831
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: I'm not a great believer in it's all priced in. Yeah,

832
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 4: that's I don't subscribe to me.

833
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's sort of one that I wanted to get

834
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 3: you on, Like, how do you think about that question?

835
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 3: Because I have, like the way I think I have

836
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 3: journalists brands, so I assumed if I know about it,

837
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 3: it's already priced in.

838
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 4: I mean, you know what people say, it's all priced in.

839
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 4: My question to them is always how do you know?

840
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 4: Did you get the old planet Earth into group therapy?

841
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 4: And ask everybody like is it priced in?

842
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 1: Like?

843
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 4: How would you know that? Look, this is a story.

844
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 4: It's a story that's going to last a long time,

845
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 4: and as long as it keeps going, people are going

846
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 4: to want to own it. I mean it gets back

847
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 4: to what I said before. In good times, people traffic

848
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 4: and stories and as long as the story is there

849
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 4: by the stock. I mean, if you go back to

850
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: you know the Internet bubble. What killed the Internet bubble?

851
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 4: It wasn't valuation. It wasn't that it was all priced in.

852
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 4: What killed it was that the US engine to a

853
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 4: recession and these companies' fundamentals fell apart. That's what killed It.

854
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 4: Wasn't that that they were very expensive. Well obviously they

855
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 4: were in retrospect. So this, you know, they have this

856
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 4: infrastructure store. I think it is just going to go

857
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 4: on for a very very long time. And as long

858
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 4: as that's the case, people want to own so many stocks.

859
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 2: All right, Steve, it was so good talking to you again.

860
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: We talked about infrastructure, AI, crypto, and of course comic books.

861
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: Slightly unexpected, but a lot of fun. Thank you so

862
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: much for coming back on our thoughts. Thank you, Joe.

863
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 2: That was really fun. I did not expect us to

864
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 2: spend twenty minutes talking about books, but I enjoyed it.

865
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: No, I'm really excited tonight. Like I said, I'm going

866
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: to go home and tell my son that like him,

867
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 3: Peter Parker is Jewish, and see if that mean. Like

868
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 3: I said, I got a bond with my son over

869
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 3: his Spider Man affinity. So that'll be a line.

870
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 2: You got to develop a literary theory of Spider Man,

871
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 2: just like Steve. That's what you need to do. No,

872
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 2: there is a lot of interesting stuff in there. I

873
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:23,399
Speaker 2: thought the point about stories, so you know, in good

874
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,720
Speaker 2: times people are into stories, and then what really tends

875
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 2: to knock those theses are when the bad times start,

876
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 2: and that's when things start crumbling. So far, you know, again,

877
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: it is now April of twenty twenty four. We do

878
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 2: not seem to be on the immediate cusp of a recession,

879
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 2: so you can see why people continue to get excited

880
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 2: about these stories. The other thing I thought was interesting

881
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 2: was the idea that like, okay, well, a lot of

882
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 2: the infrastructure programs have been started under the Biden administration. Yeah,

883
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 2: but there are aspects and themes that emanated from the

884
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 2: Trump administration, so things like the subsidy for solar panels

885
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: in the fact that we're not importing as many Chinese

886
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 2: solar power panels as we used to and that would

887
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: be expected to continue. So yeah, that was interesting totally.

888
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 3: In general, I liked his point at the very end

889
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: about his belief that things aren't just priced in immediately

890
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 3: and as long as things are good, people will write

891
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 3: the story I mean, look, so a year ago. By

892
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 3: a year ago, so April twenty twenty three, it was

893
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 3: unambiguously understood that in video was a key player in AI, right,

894
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 3: it was everyone had used Chad GPT by that point,

895
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: everyone knew was trained on in video chips. Everyone's like, oh,

896
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 3: this is crazy, And in that time, in video is

897
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: up over fourfold. And I don't think there's like some

898
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 3: new information that about in video or AI that's come out.

899
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 3: It's basically like, oh, just the storage is very good.

900
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 3: And maybe some of the numbers and the degree to

901
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 3: which other companies have piled in or wanted to buy

902
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 3: chips is true. But to his point, these this idea

903
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 3: that it's all priced in the moment we're aware of

904
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: the situation is probably a good thing to internalize.

905
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 2: Yes, And I always think life would be so boring

906
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 2: if you went around just assuming that everything was priced

907
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 2: in immediately, right, Like, what are we even doing here?

908
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 2: If we really believe that?

909
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, why do we have a investment industry at all?

910
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,359
Speaker 3: If everything I kind of still believe that, but.

911
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 2: I don't take I refuse to believe it.

912
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 3: Well, you would be a better investor than I would, No.

913
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,799
Speaker 2: I wouldn't okay, shall we leave it there?

914
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 3: Let's leave it there.

915
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

916
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and.

917
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

918
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 3: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman Arman dash Ol

919
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 3: Bennett at Dashbot and kel Brooks at Keil Brooks. Thank

920
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 3: you to our producer Moses Ondam. For more odd Lots content,

921
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 3: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we

922
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 3: have transcripts, blog and a newsletter and you can chat

923
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,919
Speaker 3: about all of these topics in the discord twenty four

924
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 3: to seven with fellow listeners dot gg slash oud Lots.

925
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 2: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like it

926
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: when we talk to Steve Eisman about comic books, then

927
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,880
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928
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,040
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