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Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, Happy super Bowl Thursday. Right we are. We

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Speaker 1: are now in the ninety six hour window of Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: of the sort of the Super Bowl extravaganza, and I'm

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Speaker 1: tempted to say that the Super Bowl hype feels lessish.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if I'm saying that because I'm

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Speaker 1: buying into the premise that they're you know, we don't

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Speaker 1: have the traditional stars in the Super Bowl right now.

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Speaker 1: There's no Patrick Mahomes and there's no Tom Brady, and

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Speaker 1: there's no Josh Allen, there's no Lamar Jackson, no Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: So I hate to like pile on on that, but

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Speaker 1: there does feel this feels less hyped Or am I

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Speaker 1: just accepting you know, am I putting my own bias

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Speaker 1: on it? I will. I will accept the premise that

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Speaker 1: I might be because the Super Bowl doesn't overly excite me,

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Speaker 1: and I think out of you know, my great fears

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Speaker 1: that it won't be competitive. But I certainly hope we will

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Speaker 1: have a competive more to say about the super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: As I always promise, I want to keep the sports

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Speaker 1: to the end. But speaking of sports, it's actually a

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Speaker 1: we have a derivative story today, which is mobile gambling,

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Speaker 1: mobile gaming and sports gaming and the impact on our youth,

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Speaker 1: the impact on young men, the impact on people's lives.

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Speaker 1: Has this been too much, too soon, too fast? As

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Speaker 1: many of you know, I am not shy about the

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Speaker 1: fact that I enjoy gambling on football. I enjoy point spreads,

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Speaker 1: and I am and I've said this I do. I

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Speaker 1: don't bet player props, I don't bet any individual sports.

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Speaker 1: I don't bet tennis or individual golf. I don't because

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Speaker 1: I think the ind I just think your odds. You're

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Speaker 1: putting your odds in the hands of a single individual

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Speaker 1: versus team sport, etc. So I enjoy gambling on that.

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Speaker 1: And yet we all know this does feel you know

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Speaker 1: what has happened here, how much we went from zero

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Speaker 1: to two hundred rather than doing this incrementally right, It's

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Speaker 1: the akin to if the entire if we had decided

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Speaker 1: we're going to legalize all drugs, anything that had been

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Speaker 1: ruled as an illegal drug, We're going to legalize all

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Speaker 1: of them at the same time, rather than well, let's

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Speaker 1: try marijuana here and somebody else wants to try mushrooms

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Speaker 1: over there, and Okay, we've handled the drug part actually

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Speaker 1: in a very lot more of a responsible way, peacemealing

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Speaker 1: it out little. Seeing how it is with mobile gambling.

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Speaker 1: It went from the Supreme Court saying nobody can have

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Speaker 1: it other than Nevada to suddenly, you know, we're only

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Speaker 1: a handful of states at this point don't have don't

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Speaker 1: have it, And at this because of the prediction markets,

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Speaker 1: essentially every state now has some form of mobile gambling.

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Speaker 1: And so my guest today is a danty fund. He's

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Speaker 1: author of a new book called Everybody Loses and it is.

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Speaker 1: It is a deep dot into the rise of the

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Speaker 1: dominance of you know, these big online casino entities FanDuel,

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Speaker 1: Draft Kings at MGM. But the two behemoths these days

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Speaker 1: are Draft Kings and FanDuel. And so this felt like

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Speaker 1: a pretty you know, I you know the reason I believe,

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Speaker 1: the reason I want to spend a little time on it,

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Speaker 1: and why I think even if you guys aren't those

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Speaker 1: of you that don't come into here for sports, this

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Speaker 1: is a public policy issue that just happens to be

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Speaker 1: sports themed, and that's the focus of this conversation. So

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Speaker 1: this is not something that I think you ought to

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Speaker 1: skip over just because you say I'm not a sports fan.

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Speaker 1: This is not a sports fan conversation. This is about

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Speaker 1: this huge industry that's having a huge impact on people's lives.

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Speaker 1: And there seems to be very little public policy, public

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Speaker 1: pushback here from our elected officials because they're just pocketing

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Speaker 1: all sorts of campaign contributions on this front. And so, yeah,

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Speaker 1: am I using this Super Bowl as a way to

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Speaker 1: talk about this, I am, And that's certainly what a

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Speaker 1: lot of us journalists will usually do with the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, here's an opportunity to have this public

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Speaker 1: policy conversation at a time when a lot of people

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Speaker 1: are going to be paying attention to this issue of

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Speaker 1: gambling on all that stuff. So that's my interview today.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to that, I've made a few

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Speaker 1: references and had a few rants about the Washington Post.

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Speaker 1: But we now know what happened, and I guess you

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Speaker 1: could say I'm this is my official obituary for the

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Speaker 1: Washington Post because my frustration on this. This is not

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Speaker 1: and I think different people go about this a different way.

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Speaker 1: I do not believe Jeff Bezos's job was to be

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Speaker 1: a to treat the Washington Post as a charity case.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not you know, I'm not asking him to

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Speaker 1: lose money to keep the Washington Post up and running.

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Speaker 1: I'm asking him to be honest about what he's up to.

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Speaker 1: I'm asking him to be more straightforward about his motivation,

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Speaker 1: and I'm asking him to acknowledge that he The question

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Speaker 1: is did he hire the wrong people or did he

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Speaker 1: actually make a business decision that has nothing to do

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Speaker 1: with the business of media and everything to do with

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Speaker 1: the business of space before I get to it, but

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Speaker 1: I want to start off with associating myself with something

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos said in twenty thirteen. Thanks to my friend

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Speaker 1: Don Vanada, one of the great sports reporters out there,

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Speaker 1: does a lot of great work over at ESPN, and

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Speaker 1: it's been everywhere times you name it, he re upped this.

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Speaker 1: It's an important quote, and I want to quote from

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos. So when Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty million dollars in twenty thirteen, he

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Speaker 1: did a Q and A in the newsroom with legendary

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Speaker 1: Washington Post reporter Bob Woodwork, and Woodward asked Bezos, in

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Speaker 1: front of all of his Jeff Bezos new employees at

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Speaker 1: the Washington Post, a simple question, Why'd you do it?

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Speaker 1: Let me read you Jeff Bezos's answer. In twenty thirteen,

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Speaker 1: I finally concluded that I could provide runway financial runway

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Speaker 1: because I don't think you can keep shrinking the business.

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Speaker 1: You could be profitable in shrinking, and that's a survival strategy,

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Speaker 1: but it ultimately leads to irrelevance at best, and at worst,

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Speaker 1: it leads to extinction in some ways. I almost want

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Speaker 1: to drop the mic and leave right like, there you go,

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Speaker 1: what's about to happen to the Washington Post? Exactly what

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos said he wasn't going to do. So I

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Speaker 1: wanted to start off with the Jeff Bezos quote so

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Speaker 1: that as I read you, Matt Murray, and I want

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Speaker 1: to say this about Matt Murray's the executive editor of

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Speaker 1: the Washington Post. Matt Murray's had to be the face

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Speaker 1: of all of this. It sucks that anybody has to

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Speaker 1: be the face of this. But what really sucks is

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Speaker 1: he didn't make these decisions. He has to execute a

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Speaker 1: strategy and execute decisions that were made by two people

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Speaker 1: who did not face the public or their employees. So

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Speaker 1: you know, look, I do not I feel poor Matt

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Speaker 1: Murray's been hung out to dry. And you could say,

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Speaker 1: well he could have resigned. Well, look, everybody's got paid bills,

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Speaker 1: so be very careful. It's always easy to say when

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Speaker 1: you don't have that job, to say you could quit,

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Speaker 1: you could do this. Well, you know, your circumstance is

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Speaker 1: your circumstance. If you have the luxury to do it, great,

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Speaker 1: and you think you can make a statement kudos, but

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Speaker 1: not everybody does. Matt Murray is a great, capable editor,

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Speaker 1: managing editor, editor of a newsroom, runs a newsroom. He

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Speaker 1: is not in charge of the business strategy. He executes

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Speaker 1: the strategy. So I say this because I don't I

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Speaker 1: don't want to see Matt Murray demonized. You want to

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Speaker 1: be angry, be angry at Jeff Bezos for hiring Will Lewis,

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Speaker 1: and you don't even have to be angry at him

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Speaker 1: hiring Will Lewis. What you should be angry at is

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Speaker 1: that Will Lewis isn't being shoved out the door along

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Speaker 1: with all these employees because Will Lewis's strategy has been

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Speaker 1: a disaster. Every move he's made has cost the Post money,

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Speaker 1: cost the Post readers, cost the Post relevance. So the

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Speaker 1: idea that Lewis's job is safe, but three hundred Washington

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Speaker 1: Post staffers are being shown the door because hey, this

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Speaker 1: is you know, oh you know, we just no. The

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Speaker 1: media business is hard, but this was a choice. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos in twenty thirteen said, you do this, and

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Speaker 1: you know you may go to extinct irrelevance. So let

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Speaker 1: me read you today's memo that I'm sure was approved

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Speaker 1: by Will Lewis and Jeff Bezos, And I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to read the whole thing, but I'm going to read

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Speaker 1: a few paragraphs, so this one. These moves include substantial

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Speaker 1: newsroom reductions, impacting nearly all news departments. For the immediate future,

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Speaker 1: we will concentrate on areas that demonstrate authority, distinctiveness, and

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Speaker 1: impact and that resonate with readers. Politics, national affairs, people

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Speaker 1: power and trends, national security in DC and abroad. Forces

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Speaker 1: shaping the future, including science, health, medicine, technology, climate in business,

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Speaker 1: journalism that empowers people to take action from advice to wellness,

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Speaker 1: revelatory investigations, and what's capturing attention in culture, online and

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Speaker 1: daily life. So that's the that's the mission. Apparently let

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Speaker 1: me continue, But we take these actions with clarity of purpose.

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Speaker 1: The need has never been more urgent to reposition the post.

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Speaker 1: A more flexible, sustainable model will help us better navigate

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Speaker 1: unprecedented volatility, competition, technological change, news, consumption habits, and cost pressure.

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Speaker 1: As you know, we have grappled with financial challenges for

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Speaker 1: some time. They have affected us multiple in multiple rounds

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Speaker 1: of cost cuts and buyouts, along with periodic constraints on

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Speaker 1: other kinds of spending. We have concluded that the company

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Speaker 1: structure is too rooted in a different era when we

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Speaker 1: were a dominant local print product. This restructure will help

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Speaker 1: to secure our future in service of our journalistic mission

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Speaker 1: and provide us stability moving forward. Then he keeps going,

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Speaker 1: we are far from alone and reevaluate our model and

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Speaker 1: rethinking how we operate. The ecosystem of news and information

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Speaker 1: on and off platform is changing radically. News consumers enjoy

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Speaker 1: more variety voices of platforms and options than ever before.

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Speaker 1: In just the last five years, multiple startups, even in US,

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Speaker 1: have created meaningful products that draw attention and generate impact

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Speaker 1: at low cost. And it goes on to blame search

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Speaker 1: and blame all these other structural issues that were issues

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Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen, that were issues when Marty Baron took over.

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Speaker 1: So the point being there, of course there have been issues.

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Speaker 1: These are issues that The New York Times confronted, and

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Speaker 1: as Nate Silver, if you should check out his substack,

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Speaker 1: he noted that both you know, essentially this gets it

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Speaker 1: to the real business decision that Jeff Bezos made. But

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Speaker 1: he did a terrific sort of showing of that there

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Speaker 1: was this study of sort of like impact, sort of

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Speaker 1: judging how how much impact your news stories had, and

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Speaker 1: the Times in the Post were essentially neck and neck,

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Speaker 1: neck and neck. It's sort of, you know, whether it

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Speaker 1: was attention impact, how often their articles were however you

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Speaker 1: wanted to measure, But there was a pretty good measurement

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Speaker 1: that he was using to do this, and I wasn't

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Speaker 1: familiar with the the specific metric he was using, but

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Speaker 1: it made the larger point that both the Times on

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Speaker 1: the Post were sort of essentially in the same place

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Speaker 1: late twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, even into twenty twenty, twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one. You know, the Times, like the Post experienced

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Speaker 1: you know, this this sort of softening of interest in

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Speaker 1: Washington news with the incoming Biden administration, right, and Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden being sort of catatonic for most of his term,

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Speaker 1: obviously meant that the attention economy when it came to

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Speaker 1: Washington politics was less interested. The Times diversified, right, the

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Speaker 1: Times has all had, you know, decided to use the

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Speaker 1: opportunity when there was attention, and they they went big, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they cut their sports department, but only after they bought

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Speaker 1: the Athletic Okay, the leading national sports news organization in

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Speaker 1: the country. So they actually went bigger on sports, not smaller, right,

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Speaker 1: And they went with a brand, and they took a brand,

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Speaker 1: and they doubled down on a brand, you know. And

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Speaker 1: they've done this with Wirecutter, and they've done this with

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Speaker 1: their recipes, and they've done this with games. The Washington

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Speaker 1: Post was perfectly positioned to potentially do something similar on

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Speaker 1: a variety of fronts. This is among the wealthiest metropolitan

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Speaker 1: areas in the country. You have some of the most

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Speaker 1: well read people. People pay for news. Not every community

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Speaker 1: is is my God. They charge you for everything around here, right,

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Speaker 1: people are buying newsletters from punch Bowl and buying pro

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Speaker 1: political pro subscriptions and National journal and hotline passes and

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Speaker 1: all sorts of things. So this is a market that

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Speaker 1: is very comfortable paying for information. But Jeff Bezos had

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Speaker 1: a problem. His number one competitor for space contracts is

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk. Elon Musk had had all sorts of ties

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Speaker 1: to the two front runners for president in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: three and twenty twenty four, Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: and Elon Musk was leveraging those relationships in any way possible.

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Speaker 1: And when he realized Disantas was going nowhere, right, He's

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Speaker 1: eventually sidled right up to Trump. If there is a

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Speaker 1: competitor in the private space race, to Elon Musk, it's

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos with Blue Origin. The only way to build

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Speaker 1: a private space company is to have access to the

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Speaker 1: government's resources NASA and all sorts of infrastructure. All right,

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Speaker 1: You know, we may be in the privatizing era of space,

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Speaker 1: but the structure is still sort of government. You're very

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Speaker 1: dependent upon government, and you need access to government. And

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Speaker 1: if Donald Trump just shut the door on Jeff Bezos,

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Speaker 1: Blue Origin would be just sort of stuck here, maybe

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Speaker 1: have to work with another country if they wanted to

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Speaker 1: get up and stuff like that. So he looked at

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Speaker 1: the look I think his initial decision to purchase now

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Speaker 1: when you have sort of everything, looks obvious now in hindsight.

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Speaker 1: So why did twenty thirteen Jeff Bezos by the Washington Post.

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Speaker 1: We know what he said. I told you up top

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Speaker 1: what he said. But he's still like, why did he

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Speaker 1: think it was a good idea? Well, if you recall

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Speaker 1: at the time, right, I believe Amazon had just made

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Speaker 1: the decision to create a basically open a second headquarters,

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Speaker 1: and they made the decision to open it in Crystal City, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Why did they do that because the most important government

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Speaker 1: contracts to AWS right the arguably the more profitable arm

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Speaker 1: of Amazon, rather than the product most of us interact

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Speaker 1: with on a on a daily or some of you

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Speaker 1: on an hourly basis, our Pentagon contracts. So Amazon made

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Speaker 1: the decision it needed to be close to Washington. Look,

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest as a as a political anthropologist, the

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Speaker 1: way I looked at it, I was I was rooting.

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Speaker 1: I remember, remember there was this whole campaign who was

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Speaker 1: going to get the second headquarters in? Amazon did a

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Speaker 1: very public, almost American Idol style RFPs right request for

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Speaker 1: proposals from various cities, and they had certain things they needed.

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Speaker 1: They needed easy access to public transportation among you, affordable housing,

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Speaker 1: all sort of. It was. Public transporation was a big thing,

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt. I remember I was hoping he'd picked

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis. And you've probably heard me a few times.

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Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with Saint Louis for a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 1: You know, Saint Louis was I ate the I America

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Speaker 1: all sort of chipped in to figure out, hey, we

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Speaker 1: can't let Detroit spiral, and we got investment in Detroit,

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Speaker 1: and we got Wall Street interested in Detroit. And Detroit

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Speaker 1: is in better shape today than it's been in a while.

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Speaker 1: We've not had that same You know, there was a time,

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Speaker 1: right Saint Louis hosted an Olympics nineteen oh four. I

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Speaker 1: believe it was because it was the gateway to the West, Right,

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis was the most important, Say, before there was

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Speaker 1: LA in San Francisco, there were Saint Louis. Right, it

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Speaker 1: was the western frontier, and it was an extraordinarily important city.

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Speaker 1: And even when I was growing up, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: it was a hub and had lots of corporate headquarters there, right,

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Speaker 1: and iSER Bush being the most iconic. But TWA Transworld

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Speaker 1: Airlines that was a huge airline. That was not a

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Speaker 1: small airline, that was a big airline. And it is withered,

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Speaker 1: and there's a we can There's a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis is one of those. When you if you

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Speaker 1: ever wanted to understand how the interstate highway system really

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Speaker 1: did segregate communities and destroy urban communities go traveling downtown

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis when you go, and I believe it's fifty five.

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Speaker 1: If I have it wrong, I hope, I hope my

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Speaker 1: friends in Saint Louis will will correct me. I've got

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Speaker 1: some I've got off and on ties to Saint Louis,

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Speaker 1: and I'll leave it at that. Some of you will

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Speaker 1: know what I'm referring to. But it's one of those

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Speaker 1: that it's just ugly. It's terrible, like you know that.

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Speaker 1: You know, there was a lot of of of urban

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Speaker 1: planners in the twenties, thirties, forties, and fifties who essentially

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Speaker 1: used African American communities, you know, just almost either bulldozed them,

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Speaker 1: divided them in half. But it was you know, if

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Speaker 1: you were in a if you were fighting a not

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Speaker 1: in my backyard mindset. You know, the black communities lost

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Speaker 1: every one of them. And this was all over. You

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Speaker 1: can read the Power Broker about Robert Moses and what

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Speaker 1: he did in New York and how this was done.

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Speaker 1: You can just see how the interstate system was built

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Speaker 1: in Saint Louis. You can see remnants of this in

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Speaker 1: New Orleans and some other of these cities that this

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Speaker 1: has been done. Do you hate hangovers, well, say goodbye

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Speaker 1: thirty percent off. So I was really but there was

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Speaker 1: a lot of reasons. So Saint Louis, I think needed

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Speaker 1: a shot in the arm. But I also thought it

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Speaker 1: was a Hey, this is a it still has some

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Speaker 1: wealth to it. It still is a highly educated community,

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Speaker 1: and more importantly, it's it's a more politically diverse community.

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Speaker 1: And I would thought the tech industry needed more buy

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Speaker 1: in from Red America. So, hey, don't you know you're

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Speaker 1: going from Seattle? All right? Why don't you you know?

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Speaker 1: I thought Saint Louis. So for a variety of reasons, right,

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Speaker 1: I thought Saint Louis was gonna be a good spot.

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Speaker 1: So but the point was they picked I remember the

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Speaker 1: last thing I expected was DC. So Bezos made a business,

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Speaker 1: and so what did he do? Then he buys the

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Speaker 1: Washington Post. And I think he saw the Washington Post

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Speaker 1: as an investment in being able to curry favor in

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Speaker 1: Washington for Amazon. And it made a ton of sense. Right,

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Speaker 1: you're the owner of the Washington Post. You're going to

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Speaker 1: get more meetings with the lawmakers that you need to

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Speaker 1: have meetings with. And you know, you could say, okay,

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezols, well we'll give him that too, But it

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Speaker 1: only adds. It's only additive, right, It gives you outsized

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Speaker 1: potential influence and all of it, you know, and so

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Speaker 1: but in order in order for that to stay, the

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Speaker 1: Post had to be robust. So he did endorse a

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Speaker 1: robust version of the Washington Post. I think he saw

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Speaker 1: it as a trophy. He did not see it as

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Speaker 1: a business in and of itself, which has always been

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Speaker 1: my frustration. He saw it as a trophy that could

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Speaker 1: help him with his other businesses. So initially that's because

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Speaker 1: he had all these government contracts with aws moves, the

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Speaker 1: second Amazon headquarters, which is all about those Pentagon contracts,

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Speaker 1: and then of course there's this hobby with space, all

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Speaker 1: of it. Having you know, having that kind of of

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Speaker 1: influence in Washington was going to be helpful. All of

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Speaker 1: those businesses. Well in comes Donald Trump and the polarization

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Speaker 1: of media in general and the weaponization by the right

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Speaker 1: to attack any journalists, any journalistic organization that dared try

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Speaker 1: to report accountability stories about anybody left or right. But

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Speaker 1: you know, everything got and Donald Trump personalized everything in

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Speaker 1: that first turn, and the question was how was it

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Speaker 1: going to impact Bezos? And look, the conventional with the

401
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Speaker 1: rest of official Washington was just as alarmed about Donald

402
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Speaker 1: Trump as the Washington Post was, so in some ways,

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Speaker 1: I think Bezos felt comforted that he was still on

404
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Speaker 1: the side. Yes, he was did lose a government contract

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Speaker 1: because Donald Trump essentially punished Amazon punished Bezos because he

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Speaker 1: didn't like the coverage he was getting out of the

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Speaker 1: Washington Post. Passed forward to twenty twenty three, right when

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Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos decides to radically remodel the Washington Post. Yes,

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Speaker 1: there was a moment that the Post was having. They

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Speaker 1: couldn't They were losing some traffic, losing and it had

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Speaker 1: to have less to do with it, you know, They

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Speaker 1: just they didn't do anything right with the upside that

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Speaker 1: they were experiencing in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen and

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Speaker 1: investing in sort of cementing some of the growth that

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Speaker 1: they have. Right, you get growth, you should want to

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Speaker 1: cement it. They didn't. The New York Times did right,

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Speaker 1: just the Salzburger's just but there they own the Times.

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Speaker 1: For the Times to be a successful business, Jeff Bezos

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Speaker 1: bought The Washington Post for the success of his other businesses.

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Speaker 1: He never was that interested in the success of the

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Speaker 1: business of news and information itself, because if he had been,

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Speaker 1: he would have made a lot more different decisions. You

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Speaker 1: don't hire somebody who's just a tabloid editor from the

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Speaker 1: UK who just is a clickbait, attention economy type of journalists.

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Speaker 1: It's a great way to make money if you're an individual,

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Speaker 1: it's not a long term sustaining business. Just go see

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Speaker 1: the UK news market if you need more proof of that.

428
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: And never mind that like will Lewis's journalistic credentials were

429
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: pretty much shit for his connection with the with the

430
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: Murdock scandals, that did cost him a bit of his

431
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: reputation in the UK. But Bezos makes this hire anyway.

432
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 1: You don't hire will Lewis because you think there is

433
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: more money to be made in a transformational business to

434
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: be created that somehow others Fred Ryan and Marty Bearron

435
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: didn't figure out, you hire will Lewis because you want

436
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: to change the tenor and reputation of the Washington Post itself.

437
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: So again, it's twenty twenty three, Donald Trump's front runner

438
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: for president, Donald Trump. Jeff Bezos is watching the entire

439
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: tech community decide, and the crypto community are sort of

440
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: both one and the same as decided. They've given up

441
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: on Biden and Harris and the Democrats and they're going

442
00:28:55,000 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: all in with Trump. They know that any policy proposal,

443
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: if you give enough money, is a policy they can

444
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: get enacted. One of those pokes is Elon Musk, who's

445
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: got SpaceX. So Bezos had a choice to make. Now

446
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: he could have sold the Washington Post. But why wouldn't

447
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: he sell the Washington Post Because whoever he sold the

448
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 1: Washington Post to would likely have kept it a robust

449
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: journalistic organization, more like Marty Baron's Washington Post than the

450
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: one whatever version we're going to see over the next

451
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: six months. And it probably would have been heavy on

452
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: accountability of this administration. Some crazy shit's happening every hour

453
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: of every day, and the Washington Post, this is who

454
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: they are in my entire lifetime. Right, the Washington Post's

455
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: been a major news look. Essentially, Watergate took the Washington

456
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: Post from being one of two major papers in Washington.

457
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: You had the Washington Star in the Washington Post to

458
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: suddenly being, oh, well, there's the New York Times in

459
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 1: the Washington Post. They went from really good local paper

460
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: to very important national paper. So just about anybody running

461
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: the Post is going to have that as the North Star.

462
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: But if he had sold it, Trump would have blamed

463
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: Bezos still probably still punished him. Made it a little

464
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: bit harder to get those space access to the space

465
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: resources that the government controls lose out in just about

466
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: every competitive bid with SpaceX. But if he keeps it,

467
00:30:53,360 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: and he makes a few performative changes, again, it doesn't

468
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 1: matter to him whether the Post succeeds or fails. We

469
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: have all established, right, Peter Baker did a terrific tweet.

470
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: He's a former Washington Poster works at the New York Times,

471
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: where he noted, and actually Jeff Bezos' wealth has been increasing, right,

472
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: you know, the one hundred million dollars is literally a

473
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: rounding error for Jeff Bezos' network worth and remembers it's networth.

474
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: This is he had to give half of his worth

475
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: to his first wife, and he still has this kind

476
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: of network. So it doesn't matter if the Post succeeds

477
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: or fails. What matters is does Blue Origin have access

478
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: to the government space resources? Is ABS going to get

479
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: all of its government contracts right by the Pentagon? So yes,

480
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos made a business decision, but it was not

481
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: about the business of the Washington Post. The Washington Post

482
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: is a paw in his gallery that is used to

483
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: make sure the other businesses aren't punished by a very

484
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: pugilistic president who doesn't believe that there should be a

485
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: free press that's there to be critical of him as

486
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: much as is there's a free press there that can

487
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: be praiseworthy of him if that organization deems it worthy.

488
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: So I do think it's important that I accept the

489
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: premise that this was a business decision. But don't you

490
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: tell me it's about the business of news and information,

491
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: because if he was making that kind of business decision,

492
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: number one, he would have sold it, or number two,

493
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: he would have created the Everything information store. Right now,

494
00:32:55,640 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: as somebody else said to me, you know, it's possible that,

495
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: you know, we Jeff Beason is just not that bright,

496
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: meaning he's really good at one thing building Amazon. There's

497
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: no evidence that Blue origins any good at as a

498
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: private space company. Yet you know he is not you know,

499
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: look whatever. Elon Musk has a lot of character flaws

500
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: as a human being. But the guy's a genius. We

501
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: know that, all right, he is. You know, if you're

502
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: going to tell me, who do you want in charge

503
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: of building a tunnel from LA to San Francisco. Yeah,

504
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: I trust his math before I trust anybody else's math.

505
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: I just don't want Elon Musk worrying about culture and

506
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: society because I think he's a weirdo. But even weirdos

507
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: are geniuses. In fact, a lot of geniuses are weirdos.

508
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: So it's just possible he you know, he's just you know,

509
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: net worth does not a high net worth does not

510
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: always mean in high IQ. Donald Trump wants to believe that, right.

511
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: He wants to believe only dumb people are poor and

512
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: all rich people are smart because he's rich and he

513
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: knows he's not very smart, but he wants people to

514
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 1: think he's smart. So this is sort of the paid

515
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: by numbers perception that way too many people in government

516
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 1: are practicing these days, and I watched it a lot.

517
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: The deference that gets paid to wealthy people in general,

518
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: but particularly by politicians and others is kind of gross

519
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 1: when you know they were an expert at one thing

520
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: either they you know a lot of times right, I

521
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: would say about the super rich people I've ever been around,

522
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 1: about half inherited their money and about half, you know,

523
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: did it because they were a part of building a business.

524
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 1: But it didn't mean they were an expert at that business.

525
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: It didn't automatically mean they were any good at anything else.

526
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: So that is a possibility because if you were to

527
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 1: look at the what the Washington Post is deciding to do,

528
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: it is about the dumbest business decision you can do.

529
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: So let's go back to my Matt Murray emails. You

530
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 1: could say, I've got a lot of strong opinions on this.

531
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: For the immediate future, we're going to concentrate on areas

532
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 1: that demonstrate authority, distinctiveness, and impact and that resonate with readers. Politics,

533
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 1: national affairs, people power and trends, national security and DC

534
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 1: and abroad. Forces shaping the future, including science, health, medicine, technology, climate,

535
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 1: and business. You know who else has that same north star?

536
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: Every other news organization that cover is in Washington or

537
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,439
Speaker 1: covers Washington. That's Politico's north star. I could argue that's

538
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 1: you know, punch Bowl probably covers eighty percent of that.

539
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: National Journal or the Hotline would have said something like that,

540
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 1: The New York Times coverage of Washington has that as

541
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: a north star. So what the Washington Post had that

542
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: none of these other news organizations had is they also

543
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: were the regional and local authority. So they had a distinct.

544
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: You know, last time I checked, do you want to

545
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: stand out from your competitors or do you want to

546
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: look very similar to your competitors. The Washington Post has

547
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: made a decision to go small and to become more

548
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 1: like Politico. And the irony is that, right the founders

549
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: of Political Jim Banheid and John Harris left the Post

550
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: and said, hey, they they basically say there needs to

551
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 1: be you know, the Post, and you know, the Post

552
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: should be focusing more on these areas and they could

553
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: own this area now. Jimpnheid John Harris weren't advocating getting

554
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: rid of sports and culture and all of that. What

555
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,240
Speaker 1: they were arguing is that the Post should be more robust,

556
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 1: be smarter about some of its core authoritative topics, including

557
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 1: politics in the coverage of Washington. And I've always said

558
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 1: that the Washington Post for my adult lifetime used to

559
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: what I said used to say when I worked at

560
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: the National Journal in the Hotline, he said, boy, the

561
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: Washington Post lets a bunch of us live right, roll Call, Politico,

562
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: National Journal, punch Bowl. If the Washington Post chose to

563
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: get involved in any of those areas and become, you know,

564
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 1: hourly authorities on what's happening on Capitol Hill like punch Bowl,

565
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, or daily authorities about what's happening on campaign

566
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: trail like Hotline, or daily and hourly newsletters about all

567
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 1: sorts of industries in Washington, like Politico, they could do it,

568
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: but it would put these others out of business, you know.

569
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: So now the Post wants to retreat and essentially become

570
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: a Washington trade publication that covers the business of Washington.

571
00:37:55,960 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: That's Politico, that's Roll Call, that's National Journal, That's that's

572
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: how the New York Times covered all. You get my point. So,

573
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,240
Speaker 1: if this were a business decision about positioning The Washington

574
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 1: Post in a place to be a successful standalone business

575
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: on its own. This is not what you would do.

576
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 1: So again, it's a business decision, but it had nothing

577
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: to do with the business of The Washington Post. Now

578
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: I'm going to close on this before we get to

579
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: my conversation with Danny fun about mobile gaming and whether

580
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: this is a if we suddenly put a cart and

581
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: of cigarettes, the proverbial cartner cigarettes in the hands of

582
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,959
Speaker 1: every eighteen year old boy in America, I guess, twenty

583
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: one year old boy in America, young man in America.

584
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to confess something I am. I am enthusiastic

585
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: about the future of news and information. I'm enthusiastic about

586
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:09,280
Speaker 1: independent media because look, I think the I think Jeff

587
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 1: Bezos here behaved like an evil rich guy stereotype. Right,

588
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: couldn't faith when he bought the Washington Post, he couldn't

589
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: wait to be in the newsroom. When he absolutely destroys

590
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: the Washington Post. He's meeting with peg Pete Eggseth at

591
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: Blue Origin and his wife's hanging out at a Paris

592
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: fashion show. Right, it is a classic, Like I mean,

593
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: you couldn't script it better, right if you wanted to.

594
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: It is gilded age, let them eat cake. You can

595
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: pick your metaphor, and I'll tell you I do think

596
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 1: the pitchforks are out. Bernie Sanders said something interesting, and

597
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 1: you know, Bernie has a way of taking any issue

598
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 1: and saying it's about the millionaires and the billionaires. But

599
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 1: he made an interesting observation about the Epstein files, and

600
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 1: he says, you know, one of the reasons he thinks

601
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 1: that there's so much interest in the Epstein files beyond

602
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 1: the conspiracy theorists. Right, spiracy theorists love the EPSCENEC files

603
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: for a variety of other reasons. But there's sort of

604
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: there's a next level of interest, right, there's just a

605
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 1: it just garnered, and that is these fucking rich people

606
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: played by their own set of rules, and look at

607
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: the shit they get away with. And so here's Jeff

608
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: Bezos behaving by a whole other set of rules. And

609
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 1: I you know, look, I blame myself for assuming Jeff

610
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 1: Bezos was more Warren Buffett than Elon Musk. Right. You know,

611
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: Warren Buffett bought the Omaha World Herald of years ago

612
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 1: because he wanted a good newspaper to read as he

613
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,479
Speaker 1: stayed in Omaha. And I think I know what I thought.

614
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:39,919
Speaker 1: I thought Jeff Bezos sort of raised middle class kid,

615
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 1: you know, sort of raised in a way that a

616
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 1: lot of Americans go through, you know, single parent for

617
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,280
Speaker 1: a while, stepfather, all, you know, moved around a couple

618
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,959
Speaker 1: of times, sort of lived, had a lived, had a lived,

619
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 1: working class, middle class ferry experience that maybe may have

620
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 1: ground him differently than it grounds a guy like Elon Musk,

621
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: who was you know, raised by a weirdo father, and

622
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: you know, or some of these tech guys who are

623
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: all you know, a lot of them are you know,

624
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: like Bill Gates was you know, his dad had you know,

625
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 1: he wasn't. I think he was born in second base,

626
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: not third base. But you get the drift, right, you

627
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: get my drift. And so I think, you know, I

628
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: was even impressed with how he handled his divorce, right,

629
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: he didn't fight it half and half except that the

630
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 1: premise that he couldn't have built his built Amazon without

631
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:43,479
Speaker 1: a spouse. You know, perhaps he was the guilty party

632
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 1: and he felt like he had to just do it

633
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 1: that way. I don't know, but it's interesting. It feels

634
00:41:56,080 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: like there was one Jeff Bezos that we all thought

635
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: we knew. And then there's the guy who's more interested

636
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: in being in Hollywood, more interested in having these you know,

637
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: weddings in Italy and Europe and having all sort of

638
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: being flashy with his money. Right, it's his prerogative, enjoy it, Sure,

639
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: go ahead, But I don't know if you know it

640
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: is the amount of white collar anger that's going to

641
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 1: be now coupled with blue collar anger. Right if blue

642
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: collar Americans didn't like Mett Romney because he looked like

643
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: the boss that was going to lay them off, and

644
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: that's why some of these guys who may not have

645
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: liked the skin color of Barack Obama but voted for

646
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: him in twenty twelve, because Mett Romney looked like the

647
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: guy that was going to lay him off. Well, now

648
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: blue collar and white collar are going to be pretty

649
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 1: angry at the boss. And you know, it's it is

650
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: actions like this that I this this sort of moment

651
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: that's coming and I and I think, again, I blame myself.

652
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: I thought I've been I've been in a few dinners

653
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: with Jeff Bezos. I, you know, clearly not enough to

654
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 1: truly get the measure of the man. But he seemed

655
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: like a pretty smart, well read, sort of pragmatic individual,

656
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: meaning I thought he could read a room, and I

657
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 1: don't think any of these tech guys can read a

658
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 1: room right now. And you know, whether we call him

659
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,399
Speaker 1: a tech guy, he's kind of more of an old

660
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 1: retail brick and mortar guy that used sort of technology

661
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: to to sort of take over the retail market. But

662
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 1: I I, you know, I don't think this is good politics.

663
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: And the party that associates the most with the wealthiest

664
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 1: people right now is on the right. You know, It's funny.

665
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: For a period of time, all the rich people, the

666
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 1: richest people in America seemed to be Obama supporters, right

667
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: They loved Obama, the celebrity of Obama. And now they

668
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 1: are whether they don't, maybe they don't like hanging with Trump,

669
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: but they're all paying the price to hang with them.

670
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 1: But like I said, the good news is, the public

671
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: is not going to trust corporate owned media or billionaire

672
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 1: owned media. They're only going to trust independent media. And

673
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 1: the good news is there is whether we call it

674
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 1: DMV today, DMV now. But the appetite, I mean, the

675
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis trade for the Washington Wizards has not been

676
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: covered by the Washington Post. It broke about three hours

677
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 1: after the Matt Murray announced the end of the sports department,

678
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 1: and so I was curious if they'd even like NOE, like,

679
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: this is the biggest trade in Washington Wizards for the

680
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 1: Washington Wizards, at least since getting rid of Black Bradley Beal,

681
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: and I think bigger than that, maybe not since Chris

682
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: the acquiring Chris Weber. And there's no Washington Post sports

683
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: section to cover it. I went over to see if

684
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: they had any updates, maybe just carry a wire story.

685
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: So now in order to call you know, I'm going

686
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 1: to check out. I keep for no offense to my

687
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: friends at the Washington Times. I keep forgetting that they're

688
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,439
Speaker 1: still doing some sports coverage there, and good for them.

689
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 1: So I'll check that out and I'll be checking it

690
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 1: out more for obvious reasons. I love my local sports teams,

691
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: not all of them, but if you will. But the

692
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 1: point about sports is this is sports is the community

693
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: glue that builds the trust that gets people to believe

694
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 1: the hard news that's being reported. So don't tell me

695
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: sports is not worth the investment. What that tells me

696
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 1: is you have a bunch of newsroom leaders particularly somebody

697
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: that you're importing in where they don't have you know,

698
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: they they their news organizations, you know they they've never

699
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 1: covered sports the way our news organizations have. So it

700
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: is a cultural disconnect. And I think Will Lewis doesn't

701
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 1: fully appreciate what he has just done or what he

702
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: thinks he's recommended. But here's what I will say. I

703
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 1: don't think the Post will recover from this. They may exist,

704
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 1: just like Newsweek exists, but his newsweek, the newsweek of

705
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 1: Howard Feinman, of Evan Thomas, we all know it's not.

706
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 1: It's kind of newsweek and name only. Now, look, there's

707
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: still some good reporters left. The congressional team at the

708
00:46:51,239 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: Post was fairly untouched. But what's going to look like

709
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: in a year, And let me just tell you, it

710
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 1: is going to be fascinating to see what the subscriber

711
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 1: base looks like in six months. They thought they lost

712
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of subscribers after the bizarre editorial page shakedown,

713
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: another business decision that it was all about space and

714
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 1: nothing about the business of the Post. They ain't say

715
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: nothing yet, So rest in peace, Washington Post. Maybe the

716
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: brand will come back. Maybe somebody else buys it, or

717
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 1: maybe we just build something new. It's okay. The New

718
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 1: York Herald Tribune is no longer here than the World's Okay,

719
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 1: the Washington Star is no longer here. There's some great

720
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 1: journalists looking for work. I am. Many of you know

721
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 1: what I'm up to. I've been quiet lately about what

722
00:47:57,280 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 1: I'm up to, but I'm closer to being in a

723
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: position that hopefully I can help contribute to solving this

724
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: problem in the Washington market in particular. So in that sense,

725
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: thank you Jeff Bezos for giving an entrepreneur like myself

726
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: and a few others the opportunity to show that you

727
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: can do your civic duty for your community and also

728
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: make a dollar or two while you're at it. All

729
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: right with that, we'll sneak in a break when we

730
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:31,240
Speaker 1: come back. My conversation with Danny fun about mobile gangling.

731
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

732
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

733
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

734
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow. Myself

735
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

736
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: pay for college and lo and behold. My dad had

737
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,240
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

738
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

739
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 1: I was a to go to college. Little did he

740
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well,

741
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

742
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: about Ethos Life. They can provide you with peace of

743
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst

744
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes

745
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 1: getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

746
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 1: your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process,

747
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam

748
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: require you just answer a few health questions online. You

749
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: can get a quote in as little as ten minutes,

750
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,720
Speaker 1: and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving

751
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: your home. You can get up to three million dollars

752
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 1: in coverage, and some policies start as low as two

753
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

754
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:49,240
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

755
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

756
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

757
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 1: quote at ethos dot com slash chuck Again, that's Ethos

758
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary, and the

759
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 1: rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

760
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about it, especially

761
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. So joining me now

762
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 1: is the author of a new book. It's called Everybody Loses.

763
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:27,240
Speaker 1: It's by Danny Funt, and it's a book about gambling

764
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 1: and the sort of this new era, right, this is

765
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:34,240
Speaker 1: not even ten years old, this sort of not quite

766
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 1: national legalization of sports gambling. Now. The book itself is

767
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: not necessarily an anti gambling screed, and it's not a

768
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 1: nostalgia soak defense of some pure past, but it is

769
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: an investigation into a policy decision that has had massive,

770
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 1: unintended consequences, this rapid legalization and commercialization of sports betting.

771
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 1: And you could say the core are gament of the

772
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 1: book is this America didn't just legalize sports betting. It

773
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 1: industrialized it financialized it, and embedded it into the media

774
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 1: ecosystem with almost no guardrails. The result has been the following.

775
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: It's an industry where states chase tax revenue, leagues chase engagement.

776
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: Media companies, chase ad dollars. Sports books chase recreational losers

777
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 1: and consumers are trained to lose slowly, constantly, and invisibly,

778
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 1: hence the title Everybody Loses Well. The author joins me, Now, Danny,

779
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 1: welcome to the podcast.

780
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

781
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 1: So let's establish a few things here. You do it

782
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,240
Speaker 1: yourself in the book. You're a sports fan, you gamble.

783
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: I'm everybody that listens to my podcast knows I'm a

784
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 1: sports fan. I gamble, I do picks for Tony Kornheiser.

785
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 1: I've always dabbled in mostly football, in sports gambling, and

786
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: yet there is it all feels like it's been too much,

787
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,280
Speaker 1: too fast, and all of a sudden. Now we're adding

788
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 1: everything else to this prediction, markets and politics and culture,

789
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 1: and there seems to be very little interest in public

790
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:21,360
Speaker 1: policy makers of figuring out, huh should we have erected

791
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: some guardrails? So tell me your motivation for doing this book.

792
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 3: You know, I've been covering it for several years, mainly

793
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 3: for the Washington Post, and I felt like I was

794
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 3: scratching the surface. I felt like two big things were

795
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 3: not answered to my satisfaction. One was, why did the

796
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 3: leagues and so many politicians have this profound change of heart. Right,

797
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 3: they gave certain surface level explanations. I didn't find that

798
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 3: totally satisfying. I felt like there had to be more

799
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 3: to the story that hadn't.

800
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 1: Been but put it pit in this The harshest penalties

801
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: before the era of steroids that professional leagues ever leveled

802
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 1: was over gambling. Whether it's shoeless Joe Jackson in baseball,

803
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 1: Paul Horning in football, rumors of Mickey Mantle back in

804
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 1: the day, Pete Rose, the Michael Jordan rumors that always circulated.

805
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: It has always been this. The leagues were aggressively anti gambling,

806
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 1: to the point where networks would get notes from leagues

807
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: if they mentioned the points spread too much during some things,

808
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 1: which created the al Michael speak right where he always

809
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 1: you know, was al Michaels used to do it before

810
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 1: anybody else do it Now it sounds silly when he

811
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 1: does it. Some people may care about this last store,

812
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 1: Oh shut up, we're all everybody knows it now. Anyway,

813
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,799
Speaker 1: I just wanted to remind people that there was a

814
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 1: time of leagues and this is important because this is

815
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 1: what I think, really, I think is exposes this vulnerability,

816
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: is the is the whiplash the leagues have created on this,

817
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 1: but anyway, continue.

818
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 3: Absolutely, It's not distant history. You know, not only has

819
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,880
Speaker 3: players or coaches betting been the cardinal sin in sports,

820
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 3: but even beyond that, just the influence that gambling, if

821
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:14,239
Speaker 3: it were expanded outside Nevada would have, was referred to

822
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 3: as an evil like barely a decade ago by commissioners

823
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:18,240
Speaker 3: of sports.

824
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 2: I remember the commissioner.

825
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 3: Of Major League Baseball at the hearings in nineteen ninety

826
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 3: two when Congress was considering this federal ban on book making,

827
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 3: was asked if the leagues would ever do business with

828
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 3: gambling operators, and he said that would make a mockery

829
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 3: of my office. And now Vincent yes indeed, yeah, who

830
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 3: spoke with me shortly before his passing.

831
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 2: That.

832
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 3: You know, so, what did it cease being an evil?

833
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 3: Did you learn better? Did the calculus change? I didn't

834
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 3: feel like they had been forthcoming about that, and I

835
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 3: wanted to understand their thinking. The other thing that motivated

836
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 3: the book was these companies are now the sports books

837
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 3: themselves are now household names, obviously, but they don't give

838
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 3: a lot of interviews. They're very secretive in all sorts

839
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,239
Speaker 3: of ways, and I really wanted to spend the time

840
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 3: to cultivate sources within those companies to understand how they

841
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 3: think about customers and how they think about their business

842
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:14,879
Speaker 3: and if they have any misgivings about how things are going.

843
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 3: And that I felt was something I was very glad

844
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 3: to succeed with. Was talking to dozens and dozens of

845
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 3: people who work in the business.

846
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 1: So it is, you know, the Supreme Court finding this

847
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 1: has been something that the states of Delaware and New

848
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 1: Jersey were always the most aggressive on this. They had

849
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 1: filed suit forever they wanted sports books, and the Nevada

850
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 1: exception was always very hard to rationalize and in fairness,

851
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 1: from a pure legal argument, I always thought New Jersey

852
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:51,320
Speaker 1: and Delaware had very strong cases because the Nevada exception

853
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:52,760
Speaker 1: was very hard to explain.

854
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely not like a Tenth Amendment scholar and could.

855
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 3: I don't know if they're comparable states that are exempted

856
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 3: from federal law.

857
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 2: I do think it was.

858
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 3: Noteworthy that when the Supreme Court ruled in twenty eighteen

859
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 3: in favor of New Jersey that they said it wasn't

860
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 3: that Congress lacks the authority to regulate book making. And

861
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 3: I don't even think they specifically said this exempting aspect

862
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,839
Speaker 3: of that law was invalid. It was just passpo was structured.

863
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 3: The ninety two law was structured in a very odd

864
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 3: way where they said states that have ban book making

865
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 3: can't rethink that they can't. You know that those those

866
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 3: laws are locked in place as of ninety two. But

867
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 3: they opened the door for Congress to immediately pass a

868
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 3: bill that would correct the constitutional errors of that law,

869
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,359
Speaker 3: and as so often happens, there wasn't the political will

870
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 3: to do that in states sees that opening right.

871
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 2: This gets that.

872
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not going to go off in this

873
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,880
Speaker 1: tangent with you, but I when everybody expresses frustration with

874
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,240
Speaker 1: you know, why does this happen? This happened, This happened.

875
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 1: It always comes back to Congress. You know, why are

876
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 1: the courts so polite? Size Because Congress won't do its

877
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 1: job and people feel like the only place they can

878
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 1: get relief is the courts, and so the courts have

879
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 1: been forced into becoming legislators. And in this case, they

880
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 1: essentially wrote legislation that allowed for the structure of legalization

881
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 1: of sports gambling in all fifty states.

882
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would suspect that had that decision come

883
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 3: down in nineteen ninety three, Congress would have immediately passed

884
00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 3: an updated law. But you know, the leagues were the

885
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 3: ones that lobbied Congress to put the ban in place

886
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 3: in the first place. And although they were they were

887
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 3: the plaintiffs, I guess in the Murphy and CAA case,

888
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 3: the twenty eighteen case that the Supreme Court ruled on,

889
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 3: there was not nearly the same motive to correct the

890
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 3: Court's decision and lobby Congress. In fact, the leagues were

891
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 3: so aggressive in lobbying states to legalize book making as

892
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 3: quickly as possible.

893
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 1: You know, my friend Tony Corneizer has a saying, they

894
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 1: answer all your questions is money. And I can't help

895
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:08,480
Speaker 1: but wonder if the simple motivation of the leagues here

896
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: is if we want our media rights to continue to

897
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 1: exponentially grow, if it's so therefore growing the perceived value

898
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 1: of these franchises, we have to continue to find new

899
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 1: money into this space. And it turned out right there

900
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 1: was sort of an exhaustion of only so many car

901
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 1: commercials you could sell, only so many other industries wanted

902
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 1: to advertise, And here was this. You know, they knew

903
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 1: this was happening anyway, and they just there was just

904
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 1: too much money to be gobbled up into Andrea. I mean,

905
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 1: it feels like this is the only motivation that basically

906
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,000
Speaker 1: you may have morals and ethics, but clearly there's a

907
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 1: price tag on.

908
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 3: Them, no doubt. And obviously the leagues didn't suddenly get

909
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 3: profit motivated in twenty eighteen, So I think what you

910
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 3: said is exactly right. Media rights was what swung them.

911
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 3: I really wanted to understand the convictions of the commissioners

912
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 3: who had been saying things like this is an evil

913
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 3: to think was that just dramatic languaged because they had

914
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 3: other things motivating them. I do think David Stern, the

915
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:20,520
Speaker 3: former NBA commissioner, really did detest gambling. I think Fae

916
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 3: Vincent also had sincere misgivings about what it would do

917
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 3: to sports. But what I learned was as the leagues

918
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 3: were in federal court fighting New Jersey on this, they

919
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 3: were meetings secretively with representatives of the gambling industry. I

920
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 3: say secretively, so much so that the NFL and Disney,

921
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 3: because they also met with broadcasting partners, insisted that the

922
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 3: meetings take place at park avenue cafes, not at their

923
00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:49,920
Speaker 3: league offices because they just didn't want to welcome gambling

924
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 3: reps through their doors. But in those meetings, the main

925
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 3: point of conversation was your TV audience is aging. People

926
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 3: are cutting the court on cable subscriptions. What can you

927
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 3: do to ensure that people are hooked on sports even

928
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 3: more than they had ever been? And they commissioned more

929
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 3: than a million dollars of studies from Nielsen that found

930
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:17,040
Speaker 3: gamblers watch more than twice as many games as traditional fans.

931
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 2: They're also watching blowouts.

932
01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 3: Because they want to see if a bet wins or loses,

933
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 3: even if the game's been decided and normal people have

934
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 3: changed the channel. And they also studied the direct and

935
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 3: indirect revenue projections for the league, so if you added

936
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 3: the sponsorships that the leagues would get from advertising, but

937
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 3: more importantly, the indirect revenue from having such a hyper

938
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 3: engaged audience of gamblers. The NFL, for example, was shown

939
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 3: findings that they would make more than two billion dollars

940
01:00:48,200 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 3: every year if gambling were legalized across the country. And

941
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 3: because TV rights are their biggest money maker, that was

942
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 3: just too good to pass up.

943
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 1: I guess that's what was done with this. You know,

944
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 1: I was trying to There's been a parallel track of

945
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:09,680
Speaker 1: developments over the last thirty years in our public policy,

946
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 1: and that is we are running out of ways to

947
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:17,920
Speaker 1: tax people, right as you've had a you know, the

948
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 1: the basically, it is just very hard to raise just

949
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 1: ordinary taxes, right, whether you want to raise a property

950
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 1: tax and income tax. The political it is very hard.

951
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 1: And so what have lawmakers figured out? Vice taxes? Right?

952
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 1: It started with the cigarettes and liquor, right, and you'd

953
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 1: have these normal and you know, you throw in some

954
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:43,880
Speaker 1: tourism and they you know, all of these entities, and

955
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 1: then marijuana, right, and then sports gambling and all this stuff.

956
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 1: But I want to single out marijuana here for a

957
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:56,920
Speaker 1: minute because I might argue that marijuana the rollout of

958
01:01:56,920 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: marijuana legalization and the rollout of sports gambling. Right. Essentially,

959
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: what we did is we didn't legalize every drug. We

960
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 1: legalized one drug, a specific drug. With sports gambling, we

961
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 1: went from nothing to everything. There was no piece meal.

962
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 1: If anything, all we've piecemealed is state by state. But

963
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 1: the minute you get in there, we immediately went from

964
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 1: this to betting on every pitch in baseball, or you know,

965
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 1: creating all these you know, extra derivative bets all over

966
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: the place, adding every sport across the planet, right in

967
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 1: high it when you compare to marijuana, it's it's it

968
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 1: like we're looking responsible when it comes to marijuana, well,

969
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:51,960
Speaker 1: looking completely irresponsible on sports gamble and.

970
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 3: Not just that chuck, but it's like it's as if

971
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 3: you legalize a drug. That's the legal industries is ten

972
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 3: times more potent than what you were getting on the

973
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 3: street because there are ways of betting legally that are

974
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 3: so so much vaster, it's so much easier. You can

975
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:09,200
Speaker 3: bet on so many more things than you ever could

976
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 3: have through a street bookie or even in Las Vegas

977
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:13,520
Speaker 3: there are most street bookies.

978
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,440
Speaker 1: Did only a couple of sports, and they were like, right,

979
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:18,000
Speaker 1: and you're not going to probably get player props.

980
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 3: Yeah that same game. Parlays are essentially an invention of

981
01:03:22,600 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 3: online bookmakers. These micro bets where you're betting on a

982
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:30,720
Speaker 3: play by play or possession by possession basis, that's entirely new,

983
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 3: something you could only do if you're betting instantaneously from

984
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:37,480
Speaker 3: your phone. So yeah, I'm right there with you. It's

985
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 3: like you might have thought there'd be baby steps or

986
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 3: such tight guardrails at first, and then you'd ease things up.

987
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 3: It was basically, you know, off to the races immediately.

988
01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:53,000
Speaker 1: And this is where you know where you know, I

989
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 1: go back to if you're really frustrated by this, you

990
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 1: have one entity to blame, Congress. They had no interest

991
01:03:58,200 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 1: and you know in some ways, Look, there was a

992
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: store earlier this week. We're taping on February third, Tuesday second,

993
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,240
Speaker 1: right before the super Bowl. This is going to air

994
01:04:07,240 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 1: before the super Bowl. But I wanted a timestamp it

995
01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 1: because I believe yesterday there was a story on Monday

996
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:17,479
Speaker 1: of how Draftking and FanDuel are suddenly throwing a bunch

997
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 1: of money into federal political coffers because they're basically trying

998
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 1: to prevent federal intervention in this. And what they've pulled off,

999
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:29,120
Speaker 1: which is state by state. Would you do this when

1000
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:33,280
Speaker 1: you can get to pickoff regulation state by state, you

1001
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:36,880
Speaker 1: really get to manipulate the process. Like I was reading,

1002
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 1: Apparently West Virginia allows all sorts of experimentation on their

1003
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 1: mobile gambling, so that governor gets more money from those

1004
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 1: two entities than other governors, and they want to keep

1005
01:04:48,280 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 1: that sort of ability to use West Virginia as a

1006
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:54,280
Speaker 1: peatrie dish to decide, hey, does this work well, this

1007
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 1: new way of offering a bet work, et cetera. It

1008
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 1: does seem as if that Congress is in an uninterest

1009
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 1: or inability to get involved at the beginning has made

1010
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 1: it probably impossible to now erect guardrails after the.

1011
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 3: Fact, no doubt, after the Supreme Court decision, there was

1012
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,880
Speaker 3: a bill proposed by Chuck Schumer and a retiring Utah

1013
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 3: senator who I'm blanking on, and it was sort of

1014
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:25,080
Speaker 3: like just a symbolic you know, let's plan a flag

1015
01:05:25,160 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 3: of oh, we try to do something that got nowhere.

1016
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 3: Since then, Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat from Connecticut, and Paul Tonko,

1017
01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:38,400
Speaker 3: a Congressman from New York, also a Democrat, have proposed

1018
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 3: a very aggressive set of reforms called the Safe Bet

1019
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:46,360
Speaker 3: Act that obviously the industry detests, but even much much

1020
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 3: more modest proposals are resisted so aggressively by the industry

1021
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 3: and industry friendly members of Congress, Like there's always been

1022
01:05:56,680 --> 01:06:00,560
Speaker 3: a federal excise tax on betting, so forever one hundred

1023
01:06:00,600 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 3: dollars bet, Congress or the federal government takes twenty five cents,

1024
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 3: which adds up to a lot, you know, if you're

1025
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 3: betting one hundred and fifty billion dollars a year. A

1026
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 3: few years ago, a few members, Tonko and Andrea Salinas,

1027
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 3: a Democrat from Oregon, proposed diverting. I think half of

1028
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:22,120
Speaker 3: the money that raised toward research, treatment and prevention for

1029
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:28,000
Speaker 3: gambling problems. But research is so conspicuously neglected. You know,

1030
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 3: we don't really have a firm grasp of just how

1031
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 3: many people are betting, let alone how many people have problems.

1032
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 3: And you'd think using an excise tax to study the

1033
01:06:39,080 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 3: breath of the of the sin that you're taxing would

1034
01:06:42,080 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 3: be common sense. It was resistance, you know, the fight

1035
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 3: against that was so aggressive, so severe, and I mean

1036
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:54,120
Speaker 3: that just goes to show.

1037
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:57,160
Speaker 1: How different correctional Yeah, Like, how did they make their

1038
01:06:57,280 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 1: case to not do this, to not divert this one,

1039
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 1: to studying this?

1040
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:01,880
Speaker 2: Right?

1041
01:07:01,960 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 1: It's it's almost as rabbit as the gun manufacturers petrified

1042
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:11,520
Speaker 1: of the CDC studying gunshot wounds as an epidemic issue.

1043
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 2: Right.

1044
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:15,680
Speaker 3: The only thing I heard from people like Congresswoman Dina

1045
01:07:15,760 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 3: Titus of Nevada, who's a very industry friendly member, she's

1046
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 3: a yeah.

1047
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 1: Say no more right, NEVAA okay, I mean, like accept

1048
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 1: the premise that's your industry, right.

1049
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 3: All I remember her saying was this is already covered

1050
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 3: by states, that it would be redundant for Congress to

1051
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 3: fund it, which is just not true. State funding is

1052
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 3: so pitiful by the bare minimum that people advocate for

1053
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 3: on treatment, and you'd think, you know, a lot of

1054
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:48,800
Speaker 3: gamblers who need help, need some safety net to get

1055
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:52,600
Speaker 3: that because they're out of money. And also, yeah, or

1056
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 3: just understanding how much gambling is going on, States are

1057
01:07:57,160 --> 01:08:00,400
Speaker 3: not remotely funding that adequately.

1058
01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:14,080
Speaker 1: When it comes to these sort of bet creations, right,

1059
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:17,599
Speaker 1: And I think that this is you know, I guess

1060
01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:20,919
Speaker 1: I look at it was the original sin allowing mobile gambling,

1061
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:25,519
Speaker 1: because how did we go from allowing states to allow

1062
01:08:25,880 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 1: to be able to do sports books to mobile gambling?

1063
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:34,680
Speaker 1: Like why was that not a larger debate or conversation.

1064
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 1: It just sort of this happened. And then this just

1065
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:42,679
Speaker 1: these wonderful apps and I say it, they're very good.

1066
01:08:43,280 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 1: They're really you know, they're some of they're very user friendly.

1067
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 1: I mean, they're as good as any apps you're going

1068
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:53,680
Speaker 1: to use in fact, they're too good at some point,

1069
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:58,479
Speaker 1: How did that? Why was that immediately legal too?

1070
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,840
Speaker 3: It's so much more profitable. For one, I did think

1071
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,920
Speaker 3: it was a funny footnote on this story that New Jersey.

1072
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:08,960
Speaker 3: You know, when they were petitioning the Supreme Court, they

1073
01:09:08,960 --> 01:09:13,000
Speaker 3: said this is strictly for land based casinos and race tracks,

1074
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 3: and then as soon as the decision came down, they

1075
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:18,320
Speaker 3: updated the law to legalize online betting across the state.

1076
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,080
Speaker 2: So it just makes so much more money.

1077
01:09:21,439 --> 01:09:24,880
Speaker 3: It's so much easier, obviously, and the fact that lawmakers

1078
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:28,800
Speaker 3: didn't put two and two together seems bizarre. And yet

1079
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:31,559
Speaker 3: some of them have copped to that, like the person

1080
01:09:31,560 --> 01:09:33,800
Speaker 3: who stands out in my mind as Charlie Baker, one

1081
01:09:33,840 --> 01:09:37,320
Speaker 3: of his last access governor of Massachusetts, was legalizing book making.

1082
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:41,599
Speaker 3: Months later he became president of the NCAA, and he said,

1083
01:09:41,640 --> 01:09:43,839
Speaker 3: as soon as he started talking to students and college

1084
01:09:43,880 --> 01:09:47,479
Speaker 3: athletes and realizing how out of control online betting was,

1085
01:09:48,200 --> 01:09:50,360
Speaker 3: it dawned on him that if you have to go

1086
01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:52,800
Speaker 3: to Las Vegas or track down a bookie, or use

1087
01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:56,559
Speaker 3: some sketchy offshore website, people are not going to be

1088
01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 3: betting at the rates they are now. And the problems

1089
01:09:58,479 --> 01:10:01,679
Speaker 3: would be a lot more contained. There are some states

1090
01:10:01,720 --> 01:10:06,479
Speaker 3: that restrict it to in person, including sometimes in person

1091
01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:09,519
Speaker 3: only on tribal land, just to simulate tribal economies. But

1092
01:10:10,280 --> 01:10:12,560
Speaker 3: ninety five percent of this business is now online.

1093
01:10:12,920 --> 01:10:16,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, no, I mean, I look at my own habit, Okay,

1094
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:21,000
Speaker 1: I enjoy it. I now I've got my own ethics, right.

1095
01:10:21,040 --> 01:10:25,360
Speaker 1: I won't bet on any individual props or any individual

1096
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:29,720
Speaker 1: games of sport, meaning tennis or any player where you're

1097
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:32,799
Speaker 1: relying on a single individual. You know, I think tennis

1098
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:37,120
Speaker 1: is you know, that's just more corruptible. And I just

1099
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:39,800
Speaker 1: don't think it's a I think there's I look at

1100
01:10:39,840 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 1: it as hey, I think I think there's hidden odds

1101
01:10:42,360 --> 01:10:44,959
Speaker 1: against me on this. I just don't think it's as

1102
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:47,679
Speaker 1: safe as a bet is both betting on a team sport.

1103
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:51,120
Speaker 1: And so I have my own lines in the sand.

1104
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:53,920
Speaker 1: But I think about my own habit. If I had

1105
01:10:53,960 --> 01:10:58,479
Speaker 1: to go down the street to a storefront to place

1106
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:01,920
Speaker 1: my bets rather than just doing it on my couch,

1107
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:07,879
Speaker 1: I'd probably bet I'd probably cut back on my gambling

1108
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:12,920
Speaker 1: by eighty percent. And they know that, right, And yet

1109
01:11:13,080 --> 01:11:18,080
Speaker 1: it's likely the social it is probably the societal change

1110
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:18,880
Speaker 1: we should be making.

1111
01:11:20,439 --> 01:11:22,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, those sorts of friction points do

1112
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:26,560
Speaker 3: make a difference. One thing that's debated now is to

1113
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:30,080
Speaker 3: bet online, you have to enable geolocations. They can pinpoint

1114
01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 3: very precisely exactly where you are. You could they geo

1115
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:37,080
Speaker 3: fence like federal buildings, so you can't bet in Washington.

1116
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 1: You're fascinating in DC where you because I've done this,

1117
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:46,479
Speaker 1: you know where where it allows it. And then you're like,

1118
01:11:46,520 --> 01:11:49,000
Speaker 1: why am I not allowed here? I'm like in the

1119
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:51,519
Speaker 1: middle of the district. But if you're really close to

1120
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:54,160
Speaker 1: a federal building, right, or if you're too close to

1121
01:11:54,720 --> 01:11:58,160
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, there's an extra geofence.

1122
01:11:58,720 --> 01:11:58,960
Speaker 2: Right.

1123
01:11:59,160 --> 01:12:02,120
Speaker 3: So there's some talk now of well we could geofense

1124
01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:08,280
Speaker 3: college campuses, or even more modestly, geofens freshman dorms or classrooms.

1125
01:12:08,720 --> 01:12:11,400
Speaker 3: And people say, well, people will cross the street or

1126
01:12:11,439 --> 01:12:13,720
Speaker 3: you know whatever. It's like, sure, but it would it

1127
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:16,599
Speaker 3: would be a deterrent, or just on principle, it might

1128
01:12:16,640 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 3: make sense.

1129
01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:18,680
Speaker 2: Things like that.

1130
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:23,360
Speaker 3: Friction points are such a buzzword because the industry has

1131
01:12:23,360 --> 01:12:26,320
Speaker 3: been very effective at making it as frictionless as possible.

1132
01:12:26,439 --> 01:12:29,720
Speaker 3: That especially seems like the apt way of describing this

1133
01:12:29,880 --> 01:12:33,000
Speaker 3: micro betting where you're you know, betting play by play

1134
01:12:34,360 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 3: and I you know, a psychologist of the University of

1135
01:12:37,320 --> 01:12:40,479
Speaker 3: New Mexico who study this said, just like we don't

1136
01:12:40,520 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 3: sell you know, two hundred proof ethanol to get you

1137
01:12:43,600 --> 01:12:46,640
Speaker 3: drunk faster, Like maybe you would want to put some

1138
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:50,400
Speaker 3: friction points in place so that people pump the brakes

1139
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:52,920
Speaker 3: a little bit or are given the chance to take

1140
01:12:52,960 --> 01:12:55,559
Speaker 3: a breath and say a you know, am I am

1141
01:12:55,600 --> 01:12:56,840
Speaker 3: I getting out of control here?

1142
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:02,000
Speaker 1: So who is doing research? What were you able to

1143
01:13:02,120 --> 01:13:06,400
Speaker 1: uncover and how what is it being research that should.

1144
01:13:06,080 --> 01:13:10,320
Speaker 3: Be I've seen some compelling studies over the past couple

1145
01:13:10,360 --> 01:13:13,479
Speaker 3: of years that are able to isolate states that have

1146
01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:16,680
Speaker 3: legalized sports betting and those that haven't and see what

1147
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:20,439
Speaker 3: the consequences are. And there is a demonstrable impact where

1148
01:13:20,479 --> 01:13:24,679
Speaker 3: it's legal. Bankruptcies are going up, credit scores are going down,

1149
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:28,040
Speaker 3: personal savings are going down. There was even a study

1150
01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:30,320
Speaker 3: I wish I could remember the university to credit but

1151
01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 3: incidents of domestic violence when the home football team loses

1152
01:13:36,760 --> 01:13:39,679
Speaker 3: are higher in states with legal sports betting than those

1153
01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:43,880
Speaker 3: that aren't. And by the way, like rage induced by

1154
01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:46,679
Speaker 3: gambling and the violence that can motivate is so scary

1155
01:13:46,680 --> 01:13:48,679
Speaker 3: and goes well beyond domestic violence.

1156
01:13:48,840 --> 01:13:51,760
Speaker 1: Well, this is becoming a thing with right. The NCAA

1157
01:13:51,840 --> 01:13:56,280
Speaker 1: even did public service announcement to television adds saying, hey,

1158
01:13:56,840 --> 01:14:00,559
Speaker 1: you know, leave the players, you know, leave the players alone.

1159
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:03,439
Speaker 3: It's a disaster waiting to happen. I get into that

1160
01:14:03,479 --> 01:14:06,519
Speaker 3: in my book, and there are people I spoke one person,

1161
01:14:06,560 --> 01:14:09,760
Speaker 3: the chief security former chief security officer of the NFL,

1162
01:14:10,080 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 3: said it's only a matter of time, as he put it,

1163
01:14:12,280 --> 01:14:14,679
Speaker 3: before someone tries to kill an athlete because they cost

1164
01:14:14,720 --> 01:14:17,440
Speaker 3: them a bed. I think that would make some lawmakers

1165
01:14:17,720 --> 01:14:18,240
Speaker 3: take action.

1166
01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:21,000
Speaker 1: Danny, I can tell you this. Look, I'm a huge

1167
01:14:21,080 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 1: University of Miami fan. Arguably the only reason Miami lost

1168
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:28,920
Speaker 1: was due to a block punt. And on that play

1169
01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 1: there was a missed block. Okay, guy just seemed a

1170
01:14:32,800 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 1: whiff mm hmkay. The most bet on prop, one of

1171
01:14:37,200 --> 01:14:40,479
Speaker 1: the more bet on props was a block punt that

1172
01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:44,400
Speaker 1: it was going to happen, and so immediately social media

1173
01:14:44,439 --> 01:14:47,559
Speaker 1: goes into this conspiratorial mindset. You know, I feel terrible

1174
01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:51,120
Speaker 1: for this kid. Look, everybody has brain fart. It happens.

1175
01:14:51,720 --> 01:14:55,360
Speaker 1: But now, because of all this gambling in there, I

1176
01:14:56,080 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 1: understand why many will jump to that conclusion, right, because

1177
01:15:02,479 --> 01:15:07,160
Speaker 1: has this happened. Yes, We've just had baseball players get

1178
01:15:07,200 --> 01:15:11,519
Speaker 1: indicted for this. Basketball players get indicted for this. So

1179
01:15:11,960 --> 01:15:15,240
Speaker 1: it's not as if it's a crazy thing to assume.

1180
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:20,920
Speaker 1: But wow, does that you know, look at what that

1181
01:15:21,160 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: guy's social media feed, what happened to it? And it's

1182
01:15:25,760 --> 01:15:31,439
Speaker 1: this is this is an uncomfortable development because it is

1183
01:15:31,479 --> 01:15:35,360
Speaker 1: inevitably going to lead to where somebody loses their loses

1184
01:15:35,400 --> 01:15:36,280
Speaker 1: their marbles over.

1185
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,400
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean there've already been people arrested for

1186
01:15:40,479 --> 01:15:44,160
Speaker 3: threatening to kill people in the most gruesome ways. So yeah,

1187
01:15:44,200 --> 01:15:48,000
Speaker 3: sadly that doesn't seem alarmist. The cynicism also that you

1188
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:52,639
Speaker 3: were describing. This kind of conspiratorial thinking is so mainstream now.

1189
01:15:53,160 --> 01:15:56,040
Speaker 3: Sometimes just as a game, I'll search the words rigged

1190
01:15:56,120 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 3: on X when I'm watching it's this one post after another,

1191
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:02,080
Speaker 3: or this is ragged. Here's proof it's ragged.

1192
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:05,680
Speaker 1: You know, sure script, they're following a script, right, the

1193
01:16:05,720 --> 01:16:08,879
Speaker 1: old script. I see them, my son. It's so prevalent

1194
01:16:08,920 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 1: in the conversation that my son will say, well, that's

1195
01:16:11,280 --> 01:16:13,880
Speaker 1: against the script, and I'm just like, you know, it's

1196
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:16,880
Speaker 1: just like he's like, the language is so coded now

1197
01:16:16,920 --> 01:16:18,799
Speaker 1: that everybody speaks it this way.

1198
01:16:18,680 --> 01:16:21,680
Speaker 3: Now, right, And this is why this is such a

1199
01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 3: bigger problem than just how it affects gamblers, because so

1200
01:16:25,080 --> 01:16:29,320
Speaker 3: many fans in general are adopting that kind of cynicism.

1201
01:16:29,360 --> 01:16:32,280
Speaker 3: After a couple of players on the Cleveland Guardians were

1202
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:37,120
Speaker 3: arrested last year for fixing specific pitches that they intentionally

1203
01:16:37,160 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 3: threw his balls allegedly and were able to bet tens

1204
01:16:40,960 --> 01:16:42,639
Speaker 3: of thousands of dollars on that, which.

1205
01:16:42,439 --> 01:16:45,840
Speaker 1: By the way, like I've thought about this incident a lot, right,

1206
01:16:45,880 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 1: you're am Manuel Classe. This is the guy that's been

1207
01:16:48,280 --> 01:16:52,160
Speaker 1: alleged to uses you make a ton of money. You

1208
01:16:52,200 --> 01:16:56,280
Speaker 1: may have a lot of buddies, friends, family relatives, maybe

1209
01:16:56,280 --> 01:16:58,760
Speaker 1: have had their handout. You can't help them all out.

1210
01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:03,519
Speaker 1: But you rationalize doing this because you're like, look, i'll

1211
01:17:03,560 --> 01:17:07,320
Speaker 1: get the guy out, I'll throw him a pitch. I'll

1212
01:17:07,360 --> 01:17:09,519
Speaker 1: go ahead and give him this. I get to help

1213
01:17:09,560 --> 01:17:12,800
Speaker 1: out my buddies or help out my friend. It's no

1214
01:17:12,920 --> 01:17:16,200
Speaker 1: sweat off. You know, it doesn't cost me a thing. Yeah,

1215
01:17:16,240 --> 01:17:18,120
Speaker 1: it cost me a pitch but I'll find my way

1216
01:17:18,160 --> 01:17:20,400
Speaker 1: out of it, right, you know. And in his own

1217
01:17:20,439 --> 01:17:22,400
Speaker 1: head he's like, I'm not you know, I'm not throwing

1218
01:17:22,439 --> 01:17:25,920
Speaker 1: the game, right, I'm I'm I've got I've got this

1219
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:30,120
Speaker 1: under control. And I say this because I'm not trying

1220
01:17:30,160 --> 01:17:33,599
Speaker 1: to rationalize justify what Emmanual Classe is accused of. I'm

1221
01:17:33,640 --> 01:17:37,840
Speaker 1: not doing that at all. But this is how good

1222
01:17:37,920 --> 01:17:41,040
Speaker 1: people end up doing bad things with good intentions.

1223
01:17:42,080 --> 01:17:44,479
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean, I think the argument that today's

1224
01:17:44,479 --> 01:17:48,040
Speaker 3: athletes are uncorruptible is so ridiculous, and there's so many

1225
01:17:48,080 --> 01:17:48,960
Speaker 3: reasons why.

1226
01:17:49,160 --> 01:17:51,679
Speaker 1: No, they're comfortable in the way I just described, and yeah,

1227
01:17:51,680 --> 01:17:55,519
Speaker 1: and they're not, in their mind not being corrupt. They're

1228
01:17:55,560 --> 01:17:57,439
Speaker 1: just throwing a bone to a buddy so that they

1229
01:17:57,479 --> 01:17:59,160
Speaker 1: don't have to write a check themselves.

1230
01:17:59,479 --> 01:18:04,080
Speaker 3: It's even important to remember that fixing doesn't necessarily mean failing, right,

1231
01:18:04,200 --> 01:18:06,400
Speaker 3: Like you could say you could bet on will the

1232
01:18:06,439 --> 01:18:08,800
Speaker 3: next pitch be off speed? So you could just say, hey,

1233
01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:10,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to throw a breaking ball to lead off

1234
01:18:10,800 --> 01:18:14,280
Speaker 3: this batter. Bet on that you're not doing you know,

1235
01:18:14,320 --> 01:18:16,720
Speaker 3: you're not trying to lose, You're just giving them an

1236
01:18:16,720 --> 01:18:19,880
Speaker 3: inside edge. You could bet on who will the first

1237
01:18:19,920 --> 01:18:22,760
Speaker 3: player be to catch a pass in the Super Bowl.

1238
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:25,519
Speaker 3: So if the quarterback said I'm going to throw it

1239
01:18:25,560 --> 01:18:29,479
Speaker 3: to my tight end, you know that's fixing. But it's not.

1240
01:18:29,160 --> 01:18:32,600
Speaker 3: It's not intentionally losing. So that temptation is just so

1241
01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:37,120
Speaker 3: much more. You know, you could easily imagine someone going

1242
01:18:37,160 --> 01:18:37,880
Speaker 3: down that hole.

1243
01:18:40,120 --> 01:18:42,559
Speaker 1: Well, is there any good guys in the sports industry

1244
01:18:42,560 --> 01:18:42,760
Speaker 1: on this?

1245
01:18:46,439 --> 01:18:48,240
Speaker 3: Good guys is a tough way of putting it. I

1246
01:18:48,240 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 3: would say there are definitely people who are alarmed of

1247
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:54,599
Speaker 3: what's happening and speaking up about it. Tony Clark, the

1248
01:18:54,640 --> 01:18:57,080
Speaker 3: former baseball player is now head of the Players Union,

1249
01:18:57,720 --> 01:19:00,519
Speaker 3: spoke to me saying the players Association and was not

1250
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:04,680
Speaker 3: consulted as legalization took off. He's worried about all the

1251
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:07,759
Speaker 3: threats that players are facing, the temptation for them to gamble.

1252
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:13,200
Speaker 3: Thinks something must be done. You've seen athletes recently. Tyrese

1253
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:16,000
Speaker 3: Halliburton in the NBA said, you know, I feel like

1254
01:19:16,040 --> 01:19:20,400
Speaker 3: a prop out there. I don't like what's happening. Michael

1255
01:19:20,439 --> 01:19:24,720
Speaker 3: Porter Junior, whose brother Johntay was banned for life for

1256
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:28,800
Speaker 3: including with gamblers to fix his prop bets, gave a

1257
01:19:28,960 --> 01:19:32,760
Speaker 3: very candid interview this past offseason, saying things are out

1258
01:19:32,760 --> 01:19:35,280
Speaker 3: of control and just the mess that this has made.

1259
01:19:36,560 --> 01:19:40,599
Speaker 3: I can't believe the league embraced this. You're hearing more

1260
01:19:40,640 --> 01:19:42,600
Speaker 3: of that, and yet a lot of I get the

1261
01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:44,559
Speaker 3: sense that a lot of people in sports are walking

1262
01:19:44,600 --> 01:19:48,200
Speaker 3: on eggshells when they talk about gambling. Maybe their friends

1263
01:19:48,720 --> 01:19:51,720
Speaker 3: are doing ads. Maybe they might want to work in

1264
01:19:51,800 --> 01:19:52,920
Speaker 3: media and realize.

1265
01:19:52,640 --> 01:19:54,040
Speaker 1: They're too much money involved.

1266
01:19:54,080 --> 01:19:55,920
Speaker 2: Look, yeah, I mean that simple.

1267
01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:59,479
Speaker 1: You know, thirty years ago. You know, look, I'll give

1268
01:19:59,520 --> 01:20:05,280
Speaker 1: you a I think this is a Apples to Paris comparison. Okay,

1269
01:20:05,360 --> 01:20:08,360
Speaker 1: not quite apples and oranges. And that is the decision

1270
01:20:09,120 --> 01:20:14,960
Speaker 1: by Congress to legalize advertising of prescription drugs. And then

1271
01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:19,360
Speaker 1: how all of a sudden this became a crutch for

1272
01:20:19,400 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 1: the news industry in particular, and it was sort of

1273
01:20:23,360 --> 01:20:26,719
Speaker 1: this lifeline, right, and that's and then so what happens

1274
01:20:26,800 --> 01:20:29,840
Speaker 1: is they get so addicted to that that, you know,

1275
01:20:29,960 --> 01:20:34,760
Speaker 1: even as you have entities that are concerned that, hey,

1276
01:20:34,800 --> 01:20:38,559
Speaker 1: these pharmaceutical companies by advertising, you know, it's misleading people

1277
01:20:38,680 --> 01:20:44,720
Speaker 1: about certain drugs and this and that, and the news

1278
01:20:44,880 --> 01:20:48,800
Speaker 1: organizations were less credible because they so desperately needed to

1279
01:20:48,920 --> 01:20:52,080
Speaker 1: add dollars from those prescription drugs. Right, Look me, just

1280
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:55,599
Speaker 1: doing this segment may put sponsorships. You know, I am

1281
01:20:55,680 --> 01:20:58,400
Speaker 1: not you know I say this. I use a few

1282
01:20:58,400 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 1: of these apps. But you know, the the sudden necessity

1283
01:21:05,240 --> 01:21:10,760
Speaker 1: the sports information world has, right, they so dominate, particularly

1284
01:21:10,840 --> 01:21:15,479
Speaker 1: podcasting and all this other stuff. You know, if you

1285
01:21:15,560 --> 01:21:18,000
Speaker 1: took it away, suddenly you'd have people say, hey, that's

1286
01:21:18,000 --> 01:21:21,080
Speaker 1: going to be my livelihood. There's no advertising. This is

1287
01:21:21,120 --> 01:21:25,400
Speaker 1: going to leave this huge hole in vacuum. And it's

1288
01:21:25,439 --> 01:21:28,240
Speaker 1: just like yeah, I mean, it's like it's like getting yourself.

1289
01:21:29,520 --> 01:21:32,040
Speaker 1: It's like going to the mob for security. Be careful

1290
01:21:32,080 --> 01:21:34,000
Speaker 1: who you get into bed with. You suddenly can't get

1291
01:21:34,000 --> 01:21:34,679
Speaker 1: out of your deal.

1292
01:21:35,479 --> 01:21:38,920
Speaker 3: Right, I'm concerned about being complicit in promoting gambling through

1293
01:21:38,960 --> 01:21:41,920
Speaker 3: those ad deals. I'm maybe even more concerned about how

1294
01:21:41,960 --> 01:21:44,920
Speaker 3: it might cause journalists to think twice about covering something

1295
01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:48,320
Speaker 3: that would embarrass the sports boxer and the leagues for

1296
01:21:48,439 --> 01:21:52,000
Speaker 3: doing business with them. And you know, sometimes I.

1297
01:21:51,960 --> 01:21:53,840
Speaker 2: Can feel like a sort of a J school debate,

1298
01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:54,679
Speaker 2: like to add.

1299
01:21:54,720 --> 01:21:56,960
Speaker 1: I won't echol debate. Look, I'll tell you look, this

1300
01:21:57,040 --> 01:21:59,840
Speaker 1: happened to me with the NFL. I was doing a

1301
01:22:00,040 --> 01:22:03,679
Speaker 1: story during the Super Bowl I Meet the Press, featuring

1302
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:05,640
Speaker 1: a player who was soon in the league over the

1303
01:22:05,680 --> 01:22:08,080
Speaker 1: concussion issue. This is CTE. This goes back about to

1304
01:22:08,080 --> 01:22:11,800
Speaker 1: any and I was going to do the episode of

1305
01:22:11,800 --> 01:22:13,960
Speaker 1: Meet the Press on the field of the Super Bowl

1306
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 1: was an NBC year, and the NFL informed NBC Sports that,

1307
01:22:18,200 --> 01:22:22,599
Speaker 1: you know, no, and so I was basically told, we're

1308
01:22:22,720 --> 01:22:24,599
Speaker 1: not going to tell you what to cover, but if

1309
01:22:24,640 --> 01:22:27,320
Speaker 1: you want to do, if you want to broadcast from here,

1310
01:22:27,439 --> 01:22:30,040
Speaker 1: you can't cover that story. I chose to do the story.

1311
01:22:30,080 --> 01:22:32,360
Speaker 1: So I stayed back in DC. You know, sweat off

1312
01:22:32,400 --> 01:22:35,639
Speaker 1: my back was like, was there a small personal discipline

1313
01:22:35,640 --> 01:22:37,320
Speaker 1: how I missed out on going to a Super Bowl?

1314
01:22:37,960 --> 01:22:42,640
Speaker 1: But that's how the league's strong arm, right, And so

1315
01:22:42,680 --> 01:22:44,800
Speaker 1: they did. They were doing that on concussions. Imagine what

1316
01:22:44,840 --> 01:22:48,000
Speaker 1: they're going to do on anybody of their media partners

1317
01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:51,200
Speaker 1: that questions their relationships with these sportsbooks.

1318
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:52,280
Speaker 2: No question.

1319
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:57,080
Speaker 3: Someone at ESPN said the rule, like the unspoken rule

1320
01:22:57,320 --> 01:23:01,120
Speaker 3: in the newsroom for so long, was you can sort

1321
01:23:01,120 --> 01:23:03,280
Speaker 3: of reference gambling, but don't do anything that will f

1322
01:23:03,360 --> 01:23:06,160
Speaker 3: up our deals with the leagues, which meant, don't push

1323
01:23:06,200 --> 01:23:06,840
Speaker 3: gambling too much.

1324
01:23:06,840 --> 01:23:07,960
Speaker 2: Because the leagues didn't like it.

1325
01:23:09,160 --> 01:23:11,720
Speaker 3: Now it's the other way, right, don't say anything bad

1326
01:23:11,720 --> 01:23:14,000
Speaker 3: about gambling is it'll f up our deals the leagues.

1327
01:23:14,120 --> 01:23:18,679
Speaker 3: Another former ESPN reporter said, it's as if sports media

1328
01:23:18,720 --> 01:23:21,960
Speaker 3: is being bribed by all this ad advertising that they're

1329
01:23:22,000 --> 01:23:26,000
Speaker 3: not covering things they might. They're biting their tongues, pulling punches,

1330
01:23:26,040 --> 01:23:29,000
Speaker 3: you know, choose your metaphor. I think that's very real.

1331
01:23:29,080 --> 01:23:31,080
Speaker 3: That's not just a hypothetical danger here.

1332
01:23:32,000 --> 01:23:36,280
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the sadly, the societal triggers that

1333
01:23:36,400 --> 01:23:40,759
Speaker 1: might sober up policy makers and sober up the leagues.

1334
01:23:41,280 --> 01:23:45,919
Speaker 1: It sounds like number one is a player gets attacked

1335
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:51,960
Speaker 1: by an angry gambler. Is probably the is probably one

1336
01:23:51,960 --> 01:23:53,880
Speaker 1: of those triggers. Yep.

1337
01:23:54,080 --> 01:23:57,040
Speaker 2: I think there's three. They're all pretty disturbing to think about.

1338
01:23:57,240 --> 01:24:00,760
Speaker 3: One is that. The other is a ration of suicides

1339
01:24:00,800 --> 01:24:03,800
Speaker 3: among gambling addicts, which has happened in Europe and been

1340
01:24:03,840 --> 01:24:08,599
Speaker 3: a big motivator for reregulating that industry, saying, the industry

1341
01:24:08,640 --> 01:24:11,000
Speaker 3: can't self police, this is out of control. We must

1342
01:24:11,200 --> 01:24:14,400
Speaker 3: tighten the card rails. And the third would be a

1343
01:24:14,439 --> 01:24:17,599
Speaker 3: major match fixing scandal, you know, even beyond what we've

1344
01:24:17,640 --> 01:24:21,400
Speaker 3: seen now where people say this is destroying sports. Were

1345
01:24:21,479 --> 01:24:23,439
Speaker 3: not going to allow that. Even if it's making.

1346
01:24:23,479 --> 01:24:26,200
Speaker 1: All the money fixing, All the fixes that have been

1347
01:24:26,240 --> 01:24:30,760
Speaker 1: exposed of are always sort of lesser, you know, it's

1348
01:24:30,800 --> 01:24:34,599
Speaker 1: frankly where there's less money at stake, right, or less

1349
01:24:34,720 --> 01:24:38,880
Speaker 1: fewer gamblers in that take the recent indictment, it was

1350
01:24:38,920 --> 01:24:42,760
Speaker 1: almost all involving games, not in the Power for or

1351
01:24:42,800 --> 01:24:44,320
Speaker 1: five conferences in basketball.

1352
01:24:45,880 --> 01:24:48,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was humiliating to me as a Georgetown grad

1353
01:24:48,680 --> 01:24:53,080
Speaker 3: because there was one fix where de Paul allegedly intentionally

1354
01:24:53,320 --> 01:24:56,600
Speaker 3: lost the first half. So the indictments in Georgetown was

1355
01:24:56,640 --> 01:24:58,840
Speaker 3: up double digits and then the fix was over and

1356
01:24:58,880 --> 01:24:59,920
Speaker 3: DePaul came back and won.

1357
01:25:00,200 --> 01:25:02,600
Speaker 2: So stuff like that things.

1358
01:25:02,479 --> 01:25:04,720
Speaker 1: Well that's the story of Georgetown basketball, as my friend

1359
01:25:04,800 --> 01:25:06,679
Speaker 1: chrys Eliza will tell you, Yeah.

1360
01:25:06,479 --> 01:25:07,000
Speaker 2: No doubt.

1361
01:25:07,880 --> 01:25:10,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, if it were something on the scale of

1362
01:25:10,200 --> 01:25:13,600
Speaker 3: a Pete Rose or you know, even it's strange. The

1363
01:25:13,640 --> 01:25:17,679
Speaker 3: biggest scale gambling scandal of this century was Tim Donneghe

1364
01:25:17,720 --> 01:25:20,960
Speaker 3: the NBA ref who was convicted of, you know, betting

1365
01:25:21,040 --> 01:25:24,080
Speaker 3: on more than one hundred games he officiated. It seems

1366
01:25:24,160 --> 01:25:26,599
Speaker 3: quite clear he was blowing the whistle to look out

1367
01:25:26,600 --> 01:25:29,840
Speaker 3: for those bets and people made hundreds of millions of

1368
01:25:29,880 --> 01:25:34,479
Speaker 3: dollars supposedly off of colluding with him. You'd think the

1369
01:25:34,600 --> 01:25:37,160
Speaker 3: NBA would never touch gambling after that. But if something

1370
01:25:37,240 --> 01:25:40,320
Speaker 3: like that were to happen now, I think people would say,

1371
01:25:40,320 --> 01:25:51,080
Speaker 3: this is a direct result of what's happened, you.

1372
01:25:51,040 --> 01:25:54,000
Speaker 1: Know, you get it something here with officiating, And so

1373
01:25:54,080 --> 01:25:56,960
Speaker 1: then it becomes the question is are we going to

1374
01:25:57,000 --> 01:26:03,320
Speaker 1: start regulating sports simply to make or the gambling is honest? Right?

1375
01:26:03,640 --> 01:26:07,960
Speaker 1: Because I've thought about this issue of referees in this respect,

1376
01:26:08,080 --> 01:26:10,920
Speaker 1: I'm very friendly with some college basketball coaches, and I

1377
01:26:10,960 --> 01:26:16,519
Speaker 1: was really curious because I've been very you know, there

1378
01:26:16,520 --> 01:26:19,519
Speaker 1: are no correct me if I'm wrong, but you're there

1379
01:26:19,520 --> 01:26:23,280
Speaker 1: are no full time college basketball officials, nobody whose full

1380
01:26:23,280 --> 01:26:26,439
Speaker 1: time job is this. They all have another job. These

1381
01:26:26,479 --> 01:26:30,840
Speaker 1: are these are side hustles. Some of them are hoping

1382
01:26:30,920 --> 01:26:33,280
Speaker 1: they can get the call to the NBA, or get

1383
01:26:33,280 --> 01:26:35,040
Speaker 1: the call to the NFL, or get the call to

1384
01:26:35,080 --> 01:26:38,559
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. But in that, particularly in these college ranks, right,

1385
01:26:38,640 --> 01:26:41,519
Speaker 1: and that in many cases, this is a second job.

1386
01:26:45,840 --> 01:26:51,320
Speaker 1: If you're a MAC referee, right at this point, maybe

1387
01:26:51,360 --> 01:26:54,080
Speaker 1: you're not. You know, you're you're trying to get to

1388
01:26:54,160 --> 01:26:56,160
Speaker 1: the sec or you're trying to get to the big ten,

1389
01:26:56,280 --> 01:27:00,280
Speaker 1: or you know, and at some point, you know, maybe

1390
01:27:00,520 --> 01:27:07,679
Speaker 1: you know you're It just feels like the corruptibility of

1391
01:27:08,200 --> 01:27:14,760
Speaker 1: underpaid refs in lesser known conferences that are equally available

1392
01:27:14,800 --> 01:27:18,720
Speaker 1: to gamble on by the same people are a huge vulnerability.

1393
01:27:19,479 --> 01:27:22,680
Speaker 1: And yet so there's a part of me that says, hey,

1394
01:27:22,680 --> 01:27:25,280
Speaker 1: we should worry about professionalizing the referee ranks, And then

1395
01:27:25,320 --> 01:27:26,679
Speaker 1: I look at it the other way. It's like, wait

1396
01:27:26,680 --> 01:27:28,680
Speaker 1: a minute, are we going to try to sort of

1397
01:27:29,160 --> 01:27:32,639
Speaker 1: police the sport just to make sure that gambling is

1398
01:27:33,320 --> 01:27:34,080
Speaker 1: on the up and up.

1399
01:27:35,040 --> 01:27:37,640
Speaker 3: I do think that's a reason why there's such a

1400
01:27:37,680 --> 01:27:41,120
Speaker 3: push to automate so much of officiating, you know, automatic

1401
01:27:41,120 --> 01:27:45,000
Speaker 3: ball and stripe calling, using technology to spot the football

1402
01:27:45,120 --> 01:27:47,920
Speaker 3: in a football game, all sorts of stuff like that. Yeah,

1403
01:27:48,000 --> 01:27:50,880
Speaker 3: the technology is very appealing in its own right, but

1404
01:27:50,960 --> 01:27:54,200
Speaker 3: a big argument for it is it removes the corruptibility

1405
01:27:54,280 --> 01:27:57,479
Speaker 3: risk of officials, I think, which is.

1406
01:27:57,479 --> 01:28:00,120
Speaker 1: Sort of strange in it like that we're so wororried

1407
01:28:00,160 --> 01:28:04,920
Speaker 1: about the coruptibility, we don't want to actually limit the

1408
01:28:04,960 --> 01:28:10,040
Speaker 1: potential for corruption. Instead, let's eliminate some jobs.

1409
01:28:11,400 --> 01:28:13,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, there's a lot of evidence of

1410
01:28:13,720 --> 01:28:16,880
Speaker 3: officials being corrupted quickly. One that I thought was very

1411
01:28:16,960 --> 01:28:19,120
Speaker 3: funny is there's this issue in tennis of what's called

1412
01:28:19,160 --> 01:28:22,840
Speaker 3: court siding, where gamblers who are at the matches are

1413
01:28:22,840 --> 01:28:26,240
Speaker 3: betting before the sportsbook heres that a point went a

1414
01:28:26,240 --> 01:28:31,839
Speaker 3: certain way, and sometimes overseas the umpire and a tennis

1415
01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:35,320
Speaker 3: match would input who won a given point, and they

1416
01:28:35,320 --> 01:28:38,200
Speaker 3: were paid off by these court siding gamblers to just

1417
01:28:38,240 --> 01:28:42,840
Speaker 3: be a little slow in tapping the tablet computer and

1418
01:28:42,880 --> 01:28:45,559
Speaker 3: saying this point went this way that way, and if

1419
01:28:45,560 --> 01:28:48,240
Speaker 3: you can get that twenty or thirty second edge, you know,

1420
01:28:48,280 --> 01:28:51,280
Speaker 3: where you're like a step ahead of the sports books,

1421
01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:52,320
Speaker 3: you can make a lot of money.

1422
01:28:52,360 --> 01:28:53,960
Speaker 2: It's as subtle as that. Sometimes.

1423
01:28:54,840 --> 01:29:00,200
Speaker 1: So you, like I said, you confess that you are

1424
01:29:00,200 --> 01:29:04,280
Speaker 1: a modest gambler, you enjoy sports. After you did this

1425
01:29:04,360 --> 01:29:07,160
Speaker 1: whole book, How do you watch sports now?

1426
01:29:10,240 --> 01:29:13,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've honestly, you know, I bet a little bit.

1427
01:29:13,640 --> 01:29:15,519
Speaker 3: I was in New York when they legalized, and who

1428
01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:18,120
Speaker 3: could resist, you know, pocketing thousands of bucks just to

1429
01:29:18,160 --> 01:29:20,200
Speaker 3: sign up for a half dozen sports books. So I

1430
01:29:20,240 --> 01:29:22,280
Speaker 3: was doing a bit of betting. Then I lived in

1431
01:29:22,360 --> 01:29:24,920
Speaker 3: Colorado when my wife was in grad school and I

1432
01:29:24,960 --> 01:29:27,360
Speaker 3: was alone a lot, so definitely betting a little bit

1433
01:29:27,520 --> 01:29:30,160
Speaker 3: back then. Over the past year, I got to say,

1434
01:29:30,240 --> 01:29:33,840
Speaker 3: I haven't been betting nearly as much, sometimes not at all,

1435
01:29:33,960 --> 01:29:37,840
Speaker 3: because part of it is just hearing from professional gamblers

1436
01:29:37,840 --> 01:29:40,600
Speaker 3: and book makers how difficult it is to win. You

1437
01:29:40,640 --> 01:29:43,439
Speaker 3: know that one percent of people are making money, that

1438
01:29:43,520 --> 01:29:45,439
Speaker 3: if you do make money, they'll cut down how much

1439
01:29:45,439 --> 01:29:46,920
Speaker 3: you can wager very aggressively.

1440
01:29:46,960 --> 01:29:49,880
Speaker 1: This is a problem, Like, you know, this is a

1441
01:29:49,920 --> 01:29:52,960
Speaker 1: problem I've run into. I'm I guess I'm a I

1442
01:29:52,960 --> 01:29:56,439
Speaker 1: didn't think I was that good, But the minute you're

1443
01:29:56,520 --> 01:29:59,639
Speaker 1: on a run, you suddenly they like limit and you're

1444
01:29:59,720 --> 01:30:03,680
Speaker 1: just like, will wait a minute, how is that? How

1445
01:30:03,760 --> 01:30:04,320
Speaker 1: is that legal?

1446
01:30:05,560 --> 01:30:08,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? Oh, people say it shouldn't be, but.

1447
01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:11,720
Speaker 1: I don't care. Yeah, I don't know. I don't understand.

1448
01:30:12,880 --> 01:30:17,800
Speaker 1: You know, it should the same, It should be the

1449
01:30:17,840 --> 01:30:20,719
Speaker 1: same amount. If I win too much or lose too much,

1450
01:30:21,400 --> 01:30:23,880
Speaker 1: should be the same metric. But that's not the metric

1451
01:30:23,960 --> 01:30:25,360
Speaker 1: they use to determine, right.

1452
01:30:25,360 --> 01:30:28,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and when you lose, when you're losing.

1453
01:30:27,840 --> 01:30:29,960
Speaker 3: The sky's the limit. Like there's someone who's lost one

1454
01:30:30,040 --> 01:30:32,519
Speaker 3: hundred million dollars betting on sports online, and.

1455
01:30:32,439 --> 01:30:34,599
Speaker 1: They have a bunch of free bets. Hey, look you've

1456
01:30:34,640 --> 01:30:36,799
Speaker 1: got free bets. You got five for your bets. Yeah.

1457
01:30:36,880 --> 01:30:41,839
Speaker 3: So, between that and also just hearing such upsetting stories,

1458
01:30:41,880 --> 01:30:45,320
Speaker 3: honestly of the industry taking advantage of people and praying

1459
01:30:45,320 --> 01:30:48,120
Speaker 3: on people, that turned me off to where I fell

1460
01:30:48,160 --> 01:30:50,360
Speaker 3: a little hooky about patronizing that business.

1461
01:30:50,400 --> 01:30:51,840
Speaker 2: At least for now, What.

1462
01:30:51,840 --> 01:30:55,679
Speaker 1: Have you learned about who controls Fandel and who controls Draftings.

1463
01:30:57,280 --> 01:31:00,479
Speaker 3: Fandel right around the time that legalization to off was

1464
01:31:00,520 --> 01:31:03,920
Speaker 3: acquired by an Irish company called Flutter. Fandal was based

1465
01:31:03,920 --> 01:31:07,120
Speaker 3: in Ireland to begin with. But Flutter is a conglomerate.

1466
01:31:07,200 --> 01:31:11,240
Speaker 3: You'll see Paddy Power betting shops all over England, Patty

1467
01:31:11,320 --> 01:31:15,880
Speaker 3: Powers under Flutter. It's a huge company. DraftKings is based

1468
01:31:15,920 --> 01:31:20,080
Speaker 3: in Boston. It's an American company. They're the two giants

1469
01:31:20,520 --> 01:31:25,280
Speaker 3: and FanDuel's leadership has changed a lot since it's founding.

1470
01:31:25,400 --> 01:31:27,640
Speaker 3: A lot of the people who founded DraftKings are still in,

1471
01:31:27,760 --> 01:31:29,160
Speaker 3: you know, in the c.

1472
01:31:29,240 --> 01:31:32,960
Speaker 1: Suite, are either one of them publicly traded companies.

1473
01:31:34,000 --> 01:31:36,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, DraftKings is in the US and Flutter is in

1474
01:31:36,640 --> 01:31:37,400
Speaker 3: other markets.

1475
01:31:39,800 --> 01:31:42,520
Speaker 1: Aren't the leagues have equity stakes.

1476
01:31:43,040 --> 01:31:47,400
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, early on, which I don't think it's conspiratorial

1477
01:31:47,439 --> 01:31:50,840
Speaker 3: to think that gave them an extra motive to course

1478
01:31:51,160 --> 01:31:53,120
Speaker 3: their business get vastly bigger.

1479
01:31:53,280 --> 01:31:55,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, And there's layers to the.

1480
01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:58,880
Speaker 3: League's stake in the gambling business that even goes beyond that.

1481
01:31:59,640 --> 01:32:02,000
Speaker 2: One that I think is so alarming.

1482
01:32:01,640 --> 01:32:04,080
Speaker 3: Is that the leagues have a stake in these companies

1483
01:32:04,120 --> 01:32:08,160
Speaker 3: that are the so called integrity monitors that are charged

1484
01:32:08,240 --> 01:32:12,240
Speaker 3: with flagging and investigating suspicious bets, bets that shouldn't be placed.

1485
01:32:13,080 --> 01:32:17,559
Speaker 3: Considering that those companies have partial owners who you know,

1486
01:32:17,800 --> 01:32:21,719
Speaker 3: are the leagues themselves, that's a huge conflict of interest.

1487
01:32:21,960 --> 01:32:25,479
Speaker 3: Not only that, but their bigger business is an integrity monitoring.

1488
01:32:26,000 --> 01:32:30,879
Speaker 3: It's facilitating online bookmaking by distributing the data that allows

1489
01:32:31,280 --> 01:32:35,400
Speaker 3: real time betting. So there is such a disincentive for

1490
01:32:35,520 --> 01:32:40,400
Speaker 3: them to expose something that would you know, profoundly damage

1491
01:32:40,439 --> 01:32:42,920
Speaker 3: the betting business and the leagues for being a part

1492
01:32:42,960 --> 01:32:43,240
Speaker 3: of it.

1493
01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:48,400
Speaker 1: You know, you're really just describing are you describing tobacco

1494
01:32:48,479 --> 01:32:49,879
Speaker 1: companies in the nineteen fifties.

1495
01:32:51,479 --> 01:32:53,680
Speaker 3: For a while, I was reluctant to make that comparison,

1496
01:32:53,760 --> 01:32:56,960
Speaker 3: just because it's so inflammatory, and people like really freak

1497
01:32:57,000 --> 01:33:00,160
Speaker 3: out when you say that. I think the advertising is

1498
01:33:00,160 --> 01:33:06,720
Speaker 3: the most undeniable comparison. There's actually a group at Northeastern

1499
01:33:06,800 --> 01:33:10,920
Speaker 3: Law School that were instrumental in exposing industry practices in

1500
01:33:10,960 --> 01:33:13,920
Speaker 3: the tobacco business, and now they've set their sights on

1501
01:33:13,960 --> 01:33:16,680
Speaker 3: sports betting, and they made that comparison. I felt it

1502
01:33:16,720 --> 01:33:21,120
Speaker 3: was pretty convincing that the way celebrities and just beloved

1503
01:33:21,160 --> 01:33:26,479
Speaker 3: people are pushing this, saying it's harmless, suggesting the kids

1504
01:33:26,479 --> 01:33:28,559
Speaker 3: that it's just the thing that adults do or that

1505
01:33:28,600 --> 01:33:32,280
Speaker 3: people do, that has such echoes of how tobacco used

1506
01:33:32,280 --> 01:33:33,120
Speaker 3: to be advertised.

1507
01:33:33,840 --> 01:33:35,759
Speaker 1: So at the end of a lot of the podcasts

1508
01:33:35,840 --> 01:33:38,639
Speaker 1: I listened to, you'll get the perfunctory if you've got

1509
01:33:38,640 --> 01:33:41,559
Speaker 1: a gambling problem in New York, call one eight hundred

1510
01:33:41,600 --> 01:33:45,840
Speaker 1: hooe or something, and Washington, DC it's this, and Virginia's this,

1511
01:33:45,920 --> 01:33:49,559
Speaker 1: and they go through and then build the numbers. Did

1512
01:33:49,600 --> 01:33:51,760
Speaker 1: you call up any of those numbers? Did you see

1513
01:33:51,800 --> 01:33:52,320
Speaker 1: how they work?

1514
01:33:53,120 --> 01:33:56,599
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, that would have been smart. I did

1515
01:33:56,640 --> 01:33:59,280
Speaker 3: talk to someone who did. He was starting a telehealth

1516
01:33:59,320 --> 01:34:03,000
Speaker 3: company and he wanted to investigate what exactly is out

1517
01:34:03,000 --> 01:34:04,760
Speaker 3: there for people. Maybe he has a little bit of

1518
01:34:04,760 --> 01:34:08,000
Speaker 3: a motivation to say it's terrible because his company is

1519
01:34:08,080 --> 01:34:13,520
Speaker 3: filling a supposed void. But he said he'd call helplines

1520
01:34:13,640 --> 01:34:16,240
Speaker 3: and they would direct you to people who've been out

1521
01:34:16,320 --> 01:34:18,920
Speaker 3: of practice for years, or they said, I'm not a

1522
01:34:18,920 --> 01:34:22,000
Speaker 3: gambling counselor how did I ever get on this list?

1523
01:34:22,479 --> 01:34:24,880
Speaker 3: Or there would he would find that they would direct

1524
01:34:24,880 --> 01:34:29,680
Speaker 3: you to, you know, two counselors covering a state like Colorado.

1525
01:34:29,760 --> 01:34:32,320
Speaker 3: That's enormous and if you're on one side of the state,

1526
01:34:32,880 --> 01:34:35,280
Speaker 3: you know, good luck getting weekly helped from someone on

1527
01:34:35,320 --> 01:34:39,880
Speaker 3: the other side. It's it's not at all doing the job.

1528
01:34:41,080 --> 01:34:43,719
Speaker 1: And then how much did you get into the prediction

1529
01:34:43,800 --> 01:34:46,200
Speaker 1: market aspect of things, or did you really stick to

1530
01:34:46,240 --> 01:34:47,559
Speaker 1: sports gambling in this book?

1531
01:34:48,439 --> 01:34:50,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, didn't cover it in the book for a couple

1532
01:34:50,600 --> 01:34:54,040
Speaker 3: of reasons. One is just timing. It's really taken off recently,

1533
01:34:54,080 --> 01:34:56,760
Speaker 3: and as you know, books have to be finalized quite

1534
01:34:56,800 --> 01:34:59,519
Speaker 3: a bit in advance. And the other was I think

1535
01:34:59,520 --> 01:35:03,560
Speaker 3: they are annuinely in legal limbo and might get invalidated

1536
01:35:03,600 --> 01:35:05,880
Speaker 3: at least in some parts of the country as far

1537
01:35:05,880 --> 01:35:09,200
Speaker 3: as taking bets on sports goes. So I didn't want

1538
01:35:09,240 --> 01:35:11,960
Speaker 3: the book to you know, have a short shelf.

1539
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:16,600
Speaker 1: Life, does me? I mean, leave you with this. Europe

1540
01:35:16,400 --> 01:35:21,240
Speaker 1: the culture of gambling has always been much greater in

1541
01:35:21,280 --> 01:35:25,160
Speaker 1: the United Kingdom in general. Right, the fact that FanDuel

1542
01:35:25,280 --> 01:35:28,080
Speaker 1: is Irish owned is not shocking to me. We know

1543
01:35:28,200 --> 01:35:30,919
Speaker 1: you can bet on you could always bet on American

1544
01:35:30,920 --> 01:35:34,559
Speaker 1: politics in London. You know, there's always been a looser.

1545
01:35:34,560 --> 01:35:37,360
Speaker 1: I mean, London is still one of the strangest casino

1546
01:35:37,360 --> 01:35:40,240
Speaker 1: gambling experiences I've ever had, where I'm playing black check

1547
01:35:40,280 --> 01:35:42,400
Speaker 1: and people are betting my hands behind me and all

1548
01:35:42,400 --> 01:35:46,400
Speaker 1: this stuff. Yeah, it's one of those instances. Does Europe

1549
01:35:46,439 --> 01:35:49,920
Speaker 1: do anything better than we do to sort of minimize

1550
01:35:49,960 --> 01:35:54,000
Speaker 1: this risk? Or is it or was it simply because

1551
01:35:54,000 --> 01:35:56,280
Speaker 1: it was embedded in their culture? They're just a little

1552
01:35:56,280 --> 01:35:59,120
Speaker 1: more They've gone through growth. Are we just going through

1553
01:35:59,200 --> 01:36:02,680
Speaker 1: early growing pains? Is there anything to learn from how

1554
01:36:02,680 --> 01:36:04,880
Speaker 1: Europe's done this or is you're having the same problem

1555
01:36:04,960 --> 01:36:06,280
Speaker 1: now that this has all gone mobile.

1556
01:36:07,439 --> 01:36:10,200
Speaker 3: Oh, there's absolutely a ton to learn. And I think

1557
01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 3: one of the most shameful things that happened with legalization

1558
01:36:14,360 --> 01:36:16,200
Speaker 3: here and I guess this is not unique to gambling

1559
01:36:16,200 --> 01:36:20,679
Speaker 3: when it comes to American policymaking was just being totally

1560
01:36:20,720 --> 01:36:24,679
Speaker 3: oblivious to precedent overseas, as if this is some grand

1561
01:36:24,920 --> 01:36:28,479
Speaker 3: American experiment and will figure things out as we go.

1562
01:36:29,280 --> 01:36:33,120
Speaker 3: All of the things that we're debating about, deceptive promotions

1563
01:36:33,160 --> 01:36:36,479
Speaker 3: and excessive advertising and too many ways to bed on

1564
01:36:36,600 --> 01:36:39,920
Speaker 3: things that are easily corruptible, all of those have been

1565
01:36:40,120 --> 01:36:44,080
Speaker 3: litigated in you know, public discourse or in courts in Europe,

1566
01:36:44,280 --> 01:36:47,439
Speaker 3: and there's been this realization that things were out of

1567
01:36:47,520 --> 01:36:50,240
Speaker 3: hand and they had to crack down. And now many

1568
01:36:50,240 --> 01:36:54,360
Speaker 3: of those same companies that were punished overseas for bad

1569
01:36:54,400 --> 01:36:57,679
Speaker 3: practices are doing the exact same things in the US.

1570
01:36:58,080 --> 01:37:01,840
Speaker 3: It's kind of galling, But yeah, as far as you know,

1571
01:37:01,920 --> 01:37:04,559
Speaker 3: are they smarter than us? No, They've just had more

1572
01:37:04,600 --> 01:37:08,240
Speaker 3: time to come to terms with how bad things can

1573
01:37:08,280 --> 01:37:11,720
Speaker 3: get if you don't really regulate this business aggressively.

1574
01:37:14,040 --> 01:37:18,920
Speaker 1: What's the what's left of the black market versus the

1575
01:37:18,920 --> 01:37:21,360
Speaker 1: the free market? I mean? Or is it still hard

1576
01:37:21,360 --> 01:37:23,679
Speaker 1: to assess because you basically two of the biggest states

1577
01:37:23,680 --> 01:37:28,120
Speaker 1: in the Union still aren't legal Texas and California.

1578
01:37:28,160 --> 01:37:30,960
Speaker 3: Right, But they've got prediction market betting now, so plenty

1579
01:37:30,960 --> 01:37:32,760
Speaker 3: of people will be betting on the Super Bowl through

1580
01:37:32,800 --> 01:37:36,560
Speaker 3: prediction markets in ways that are basically indistinguishable from what

1581
01:37:36,600 --> 01:37:37,040
Speaker 3: you can get.

1582
01:37:36,960 --> 01:37:40,280
Speaker 1: On indistinguishable Yeah, I've looked at it and you're like,

1583
01:37:40,360 --> 01:37:43,360
Speaker 1: it's the same point spread, it's the same You're just

1584
01:37:43,400 --> 01:37:45,680
Speaker 1: buying a quote share or something like that. You know.

1585
01:37:45,720 --> 01:37:49,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, they've even introduced they've even introduced so called combos

1586
01:37:49,840 --> 01:37:51,840
Speaker 3: for the Super Bowl that are their parlays.

1587
01:37:52,080 --> 01:37:54,760
Speaker 2: Who are we kidding? Yeah, you know.

1588
01:37:55,200 --> 01:37:57,200
Speaker 3: I don't want to sound like a broken record with

1589
01:37:57,520 --> 01:37:59,960
Speaker 3: the arguments for legalization. I do think it's worthwhile, though,

1590
01:38:00,080 --> 01:38:02,519
Speaker 3: to assess them in light on what's happened. One of

1591
01:38:02,560 --> 01:38:05,679
Speaker 3: the main arguments was it would drive out the black market,

1592
01:38:05,680 --> 01:38:07,559
Speaker 3: that if you could bet legally, why would you bother

1593
01:38:07,800 --> 01:38:10,080
Speaker 3: go into a bookie or some sketchy website.

1594
01:38:10,560 --> 01:38:11,719
Speaker 2: That has not happened.

1595
01:38:12,479 --> 01:38:16,400
Speaker 3: One credible estimate I think is that about fifty billion

1596
01:38:16,479 --> 01:38:20,960
Speaker 3: dollars continue to be wagered illegally. That might be baffling.

1597
01:38:21,040 --> 01:38:23,679
Speaker 3: Even beyond the states that haven't legalized. Why are people

1598
01:38:23,840 --> 01:38:28,120
Speaker 3: in states with legal betting betting illegally. There will always

1599
01:38:28,200 --> 01:38:32,439
Speaker 3: be some inherent appeals to going under the table, you know,

1600
01:38:32,439 --> 01:38:35,880
Speaker 3: betting anonymously betting on credit, betting on things you can't

1601
01:38:35,880 --> 01:38:40,240
Speaker 3: bet on through licensed operators. But again, the idea that

1602
01:38:40,240 --> 01:38:44,000
Speaker 3: we would drive this out through legalization was either naive

1603
01:38:44,080 --> 01:38:48,880
Speaker 3: or disingenuous. And when we're talking about corrupting sports, they said,

1604
01:38:49,080 --> 01:38:51,519
Speaker 3: the legal market will give us this huge window into

1605
01:38:51,560 --> 01:38:55,559
Speaker 3: betting activity. I spoke with all sorts of people inside sports,

1606
01:38:55,600 --> 01:39:00,639
Speaker 3: including at the companies that monitor those bets, say, if

1607
01:39:00,680 --> 01:39:03,879
Speaker 3: we had a real sophisticated fixer and a gambling syndicate

1608
01:39:03,960 --> 01:39:07,040
Speaker 3: working with them, they would obviously still go through the

1609
01:39:07,040 --> 01:39:09,559
Speaker 3: black market and we would have such a difficult time

1610
01:39:09,680 --> 01:39:10,240
Speaker 3: catching that.

1611
01:39:11,040 --> 01:39:13,440
Speaker 2: So that problem by.

1612
01:39:12,240 --> 01:39:15,280
Speaker 1: Only the dumb only really the idiots are going to

1613
01:39:15,520 --> 01:39:18,559
Speaker 1: use the traceable systems of the mobile. I mean, I

1614
01:39:18,600 --> 01:39:20,559
Speaker 1: still think one of the most you know, the greatest

1615
01:39:20,600 --> 01:39:25,759
Speaker 1: trick the Silicon Valley ever polled is if the federal

1616
01:39:25,800 --> 01:39:29,280
Speaker 1: government said, if everybody could please carry a device that

1617
01:39:29,320 --> 01:39:32,200
Speaker 1: we could track you with. Nobody would get that device.

1618
01:39:32,880 --> 01:39:36,320
Speaker 1: But when when Tim Cook says, hey, we've got this

1619
01:39:36,400 --> 01:39:39,240
Speaker 1: really cool device that allows you to track all sorts

1620
01:39:39,240 --> 01:39:41,800
Speaker 1: of things, and here's air tags and here's all sorts

1621
01:39:41,800 --> 01:39:45,120
Speaker 1: of things, you know, we'll gladly submit ourselves, you know,

1622
01:39:45,439 --> 01:39:49,960
Speaker 1: So it does, you know, Thank goodness, we've all been

1623
01:39:50,280 --> 01:39:52,439
Speaker 1: dumb enough for some of these guys to to allow

1624
01:39:52,520 --> 01:39:56,599
Speaker 1: us to carry around a GPS monitor.

1625
01:39:56,680 --> 01:39:59,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like, in a way, legalization is like laying

1626
01:39:59,200 --> 01:40:04,760
Speaker 3: a trap for a really stupid people, and the hardened criminals,

1627
01:40:04,760 --> 01:40:06,680
Speaker 3: the people who know what they're doing, would never be

1628
01:40:06,760 --> 01:40:08,720
Speaker 3: so clumsy.

1629
01:40:08,960 --> 01:40:11,560
Speaker 1: Well, Danny, look, it's an eye opening book. It is

1630
01:40:11,640 --> 01:40:16,320
Speaker 1: one of those. And I don't want this to come

1631
01:40:16,360 --> 01:40:20,360
Speaker 1: across the wrong way, but it's like everything you reported

1632
01:40:20,640 --> 01:40:23,080
Speaker 1: is like, of course, I hate to say that, right,

1633
01:40:23,720 --> 01:40:25,479
Speaker 1: And there were things I didn't know, but yet it

1634
01:40:25,680 --> 01:40:29,519
Speaker 1: still came across of like, oh, duh, right, of course

1635
01:40:29,560 --> 01:40:32,040
Speaker 1: this is how it's working. Of course they're doing this, right,

1636
01:40:32,240 --> 01:40:35,439
Speaker 1: This is all in pursuit of the mighty dollar, right,

1637
01:40:35,520 --> 01:40:37,920
Speaker 1: Like it is. There's no doubt what the motivation is.

1638
01:40:38,640 --> 01:40:43,559
Speaker 1: And we are putting a generation of young men in

1639
01:40:43,680 --> 01:40:47,080
Speaker 1: harm's way. And I think that's the thing that ought

1640
01:40:47,120 --> 01:40:48,880
Speaker 1: have scared the but Jesus out of all of us.

1641
01:40:49,240 --> 01:40:53,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, gosh, say the whole book. I know

1642
01:40:53,840 --> 01:40:55,200
Speaker 2: you preface it how you did.

1643
01:40:55,280 --> 01:40:57,800
Speaker 3: I think there's stuff that will blow people away if

1644
01:40:57,800 --> 01:41:00,360
Speaker 3: they read the book. And I also think even if

1645
01:41:00,360 --> 01:41:02,759
Speaker 3: you suspected that there are some people in the industry

1646
01:41:02,800 --> 01:41:06,240
Speaker 3: who are conflicted about what's happening, to hear them say

1647
01:41:06,280 --> 01:41:10,760
Speaker 3: it so bluntly that they feel like this is ethically problematic,

1648
01:41:10,920 --> 01:41:13,880
Speaker 3: or like shit could really hit the fan if certain.

1649
01:41:13,680 --> 01:41:17,240
Speaker 2: Types of bets take off. I think that is sobering.

1650
01:41:17,560 --> 01:41:19,280
Speaker 3: Even if we sort of had a hunch that people

1651
01:41:19,360 --> 01:41:21,480
Speaker 3: might have felt that way, to hear them say it.

1652
01:41:21,200 --> 01:41:23,519
Speaker 1: Is basically what you're saying. You found people in the

1653
01:41:23,520 --> 01:41:25,680
Speaker 1: industry that is like, I can't believe we get to

1654
01:41:25,720 --> 01:41:32,479
Speaker 1: do this legally exactly. Yeah, Danny, the book's called Everybody Loses,

1655
01:41:34,960 --> 01:41:36,479
Speaker 1: but some of us are still going to chase the

1656
01:41:36,479 --> 01:41:39,400
Speaker 1: win on Super Bowl Sunday. Anyway, Danny, appreciate the time.

1657
01:41:39,960 --> 01:41:40,599
Speaker 2: Thank you, Chuck.

1658
01:41:49,960 --> 01:41:52,679
Speaker 1: All Right, so now you're going to feel guilty about

1659
01:41:52,760 --> 01:41:54,760
Speaker 1: using a mobile app to bet on the Super Bowl.

1660
01:41:56,520 --> 01:41:58,880
Speaker 1: Here's what I will say this. The big thing I

1661
01:41:58,920 --> 01:42:03,760
Speaker 1: took away from this interview is, you know, I am

1662
01:42:03,880 --> 01:42:06,920
Speaker 1: as I confess, right, I have this libertarian in me

1663
01:42:07,040 --> 01:42:10,439
Speaker 1: that is like, look, vices or vices, but I am

1664
01:42:11,200 --> 01:42:13,800
Speaker 1: you know, make the vice available, tax the shit out

1665
01:42:13,840 --> 01:42:18,640
Speaker 1: of it, create a little bit more friction, right, you know,

1666
01:42:19,360 --> 01:42:26,400
Speaker 1: and I think there's there is there is some way here.

1667
01:42:26,400 --> 01:42:28,799
Speaker 1: And I thought, I thought what was helpful from Danny's

1668
01:42:28,840 --> 01:42:32,479
Speaker 1: Like Europe's been through this and they figured out a

1669
01:42:32,760 --> 01:42:37,760
Speaker 1: which gambling's good and which gamblings too addictive and harmful? Right,

1670
01:42:38,439 --> 01:42:45,120
Speaker 1: and you know, everything in moderation. I remember when I

1671
01:42:45,160 --> 01:42:50,760
Speaker 1: was in college they had us take a class about it.

1672
01:42:50,840 --> 01:42:53,519
Speaker 1: Wasn't it was like about moderate drinking. It was like, look,

1673
01:42:53,560 --> 01:42:55,760
Speaker 1: we're not going to tell you to be tea todalers.

1674
01:42:56,640 --> 01:43:05,360
Speaker 1: But it was sort of explaining, essentially celebrating moderation. And

1675
01:43:05,439 --> 01:43:07,599
Speaker 1: I think this is a classic case where a little

1676
01:43:07,640 --> 01:43:12,000
Speaker 1: bit of gambling's fine, A lot of bit of gambling

1677
01:43:12,200 --> 01:43:15,400
Speaker 1: is destructive. Right. It's like a little bit of alcohol

1678
01:43:15,479 --> 01:43:18,640
Speaker 1: is fine, a lot of it can't kill you. You know,

1679
01:43:18,800 --> 01:43:20,799
Speaker 1: one cigarette is not going to give you lung cancer.

1680
01:43:21,280 --> 01:43:24,639
Speaker 1: A cart in mind, you know, it is all of it.

1681
01:43:25,000 --> 01:43:30,759
Speaker 1: You know, in some ways it's arguably what our founders

1682
01:43:30,800 --> 01:43:34,240
Speaker 1: thought about our politics too, Right, It's all about pragmatism

1683
01:43:34,360 --> 01:43:40,040
Speaker 1: and moderation. All right. With that, let me give you

1684
01:43:40,080 --> 01:43:43,200
Speaker 1: a few thoughts on the on the Super Bowl, I Eric,

1685
01:43:43,760 --> 01:43:47,920
Speaker 1: I have my fear is that it's a blowout that

1686
01:43:48,000 --> 01:43:52,240
Speaker 1: we're having eighties nineties super Bowl right where the NFC

1687
01:43:52,320 --> 01:43:55,320
Speaker 1: is so much more dominant than the AFC, and you know,

1688
01:43:55,360 --> 01:43:59,720
Speaker 1: it was like, you know, whatever AFC team sort of

1689
01:44:00,200 --> 01:44:02,800
Speaker 1: hacked their way to the Super Bowl. Remember when the

1690
01:44:02,800 --> 01:44:07,000
Speaker 1: San Diego Chargers with Nate Tron means business, you know,

1691
01:44:07,040 --> 01:44:10,639
Speaker 1: and they got there and they got kind of pummeled

1692
01:44:10,640 --> 01:44:13,960
Speaker 1: by Steve Young's forty nine ers. Right, all those Buffalo

1693
01:44:14,000 --> 01:44:17,519
Speaker 1: bill blowouts from the Jim Kelly era. I mean, the

1694
01:44:17,560 --> 01:44:21,639
Speaker 1: only team NFC team that didn't that would win super

1695
01:44:21,640 --> 01:44:24,559
Speaker 1: Bowls without blowing out the AFC were the Giants, Right.

1696
01:44:24,600 --> 01:44:26,920
Speaker 1: You had the Scott Norwood field goal, and then even

1697
01:44:26,960 --> 01:44:29,400
Speaker 1: the game against the Broncos. I think that the Giants

1698
01:44:29,400 --> 01:44:31,920
Speaker 1: trailed at halftime and then they ended up they ended

1699
01:44:32,000 --> 01:44:34,800
Speaker 1: up beating the Broncos for the first Super Bowl for parcels.

1700
01:44:35,640 --> 01:44:38,960
Speaker 1: So I fear we're gonna have one of those games.

1701
01:44:39,000 --> 01:44:42,280
Speaker 1: I hope not. Right the borings there was there was

1702
01:44:42,360 --> 01:44:47,960
Speaker 1: nothing that I don't know whether super Bowl parties right now,

1703
01:44:48,000 --> 01:44:49,960
Speaker 1: that's that's the That's the other question, is a super

1704
01:44:50,000 --> 01:44:52,720
Speaker 1: Bowl party? Is it better to be at a super

1705
01:44:52,760 --> 01:44:55,640
Speaker 1: Bowl party if the games will blow out? And is

1706
01:44:55,640 --> 01:44:59,000
Speaker 1: it better to be at home if the game is close, right,

1707
01:44:59,120 --> 01:45:02,040
Speaker 1: so that the one upside might be if there is

1708
01:45:02,080 --> 01:45:05,160
Speaker 1: a blowout. It makes for socializing at the super Bowl

1709
01:45:05,160 --> 01:45:07,760
Speaker 1: party a little bit easier. But there's nothing I hate,

1710
01:45:08,000 --> 01:45:09,679
Speaker 1: you know. I love me a good super Bowl party.

1711
01:45:10,000 --> 01:45:12,080
Speaker 1: I've got a great We've got some great friends that

1712
01:45:12,720 --> 01:45:16,639
Speaker 1: love to host. And but my only small peeve about

1713
01:45:16,680 --> 01:45:20,760
Speaker 1: it is if it's a really competitive game, It's like,

1714
01:45:20,840 --> 01:45:22,639
Speaker 1: I don't want to be at a party while I'm

1715
01:45:22,640 --> 01:45:27,120
Speaker 1: watching anyway, So my fear is that, right. I love

1716
01:45:27,160 --> 01:45:31,040
Speaker 1: the Sam Donald story. I still remember Freshman, the freshman

1717
01:45:31,080 --> 01:45:35,200
Speaker 1: at USC who was unbelievable, and I have I've not

1718
01:45:35,320 --> 01:45:37,439
Speaker 1: seen him be that good until he was a Viking. Right,

1719
01:45:39,960 --> 01:45:42,200
Speaker 1: by the way, what an indictment on the Jets, right,

1720
01:45:42,600 --> 01:45:45,719
Speaker 1: Sam donald redemption tour? Basically, once he left the Jets

1721
01:45:45,720 --> 01:45:49,679
Speaker 1: and could get anywhere else, it seemed to over time

1722
01:45:50,560 --> 01:45:55,040
Speaker 1: write his mental state memo to young quarterbacks, pray you

1723
01:45:55,080 --> 01:46:01,240
Speaker 1: don't get drafted by the New York Jets. My gut

1724
01:46:01,280 --> 01:46:03,719
Speaker 1: is also low scoring game because the dirty little secret

1725
01:46:03,800 --> 01:46:06,839
Speaker 1: about watching the Seahawks is they don't seem to want

1726
01:46:07,280 --> 01:46:12,000
Speaker 1: to put the game in Darnald's hands one hundred percent. Right,

1727
01:46:12,040 --> 01:46:13,880
Speaker 1: they've had they had a great one two punch. They

1728
01:46:13,880 --> 01:46:16,519
Speaker 1: only have one running back obviously that they're they one

1729
01:46:16,520 --> 01:46:20,439
Speaker 1: of their two stars there. But I mean, he's been

1730
01:46:20,479 --> 01:46:26,280
Speaker 1: a machine walker the way I mean, I know this

1731
01:46:26,360 --> 01:46:31,160
Speaker 1: is facing him in fantasy, right, and that defense is outstanding.

1732
01:46:33,479 --> 01:46:36,120
Speaker 1: Here's what I think about the Patriots. A Mike Vrabel

1733
01:46:36,400 --> 01:46:38,559
Speaker 1: Patriots team is not going to get blown out. So

1734
01:46:38,680 --> 01:46:41,000
Speaker 1: I do believe that they will muck this game up

1735
01:46:41,000 --> 01:46:46,000
Speaker 1: a little bit. So I am I am smelling very

1736
01:46:46,040 --> 01:46:49,960
Speaker 1: low scoring. You know, I could see twenty to three,

1737
01:46:50,240 --> 01:46:53,200
Speaker 1: I could see sixteen to seven. I could see you

1738
01:46:53,240 --> 01:46:57,800
Speaker 1: know that it could be Seattle's always in control, but

1739
01:46:58,280 --> 01:47:01,880
Speaker 1: right they don't seem to pull away. Maybe a few

1740
01:47:01,920 --> 01:47:06,400
Speaker 1: more field goals than touchdowns. The May injury concerns me

1741
01:47:06,439 --> 01:47:08,639
Speaker 1: a little bit, you know, nothing like having a shoulder

1742
01:47:08,680 --> 01:47:11,920
Speaker 1: issue there, because his great strength is to throw the

1743
01:47:11,960 --> 01:47:14,559
Speaker 1: ball down the field a little bit, so you have

1744
01:47:14,600 --> 01:47:18,320
Speaker 1: to ask yourself about that. So needless to say, you know,

1745
01:47:18,640 --> 01:47:21,840
Speaker 1: I'm if you're gonna make me put money, I'm I

1746
01:47:21,960 --> 01:47:25,920
Speaker 1: would I'd feel the most comfortable with, particularly a first

1747
01:47:25,960 --> 01:47:30,280
Speaker 1: half under and probably the overall as well, and i'd

1748
01:47:30,320 --> 01:47:35,000
Speaker 1: be and I think it's Seahawks or nobody for me.

1749
01:47:35,320 --> 01:47:38,439
Speaker 1: And like I told you, I I you know, there's

1750
01:47:38,720 --> 01:47:42,960
Speaker 1: there's plenty of player props out there, but in some ways,

1751
01:47:43,000 --> 01:47:48,240
Speaker 1: I do think player props are sort of a bigger problem. Right.

1752
01:47:48,320 --> 01:47:50,880
Speaker 1: It's sort of my own more my own small little

1753
01:47:52,120 --> 01:47:55,080
Speaker 1: moral line in the sand that I'm drawing on that.

1754
01:47:55,280 --> 01:48:03,160
Speaker 1: So enjoy the Super Bowl. And you know, I have

1755
01:48:03,200 --> 01:48:06,120
Speaker 1: to say, I'm as you know, I'm a huge football fan.

1756
01:48:08,080 --> 01:48:09,920
Speaker 1: It's going to be a long five months until the

1757
01:48:10,000 --> 01:48:13,840
Speaker 1: start until the Hurricanes first game, which by the way

1758
01:48:13,960 --> 01:48:16,960
Speaker 1: is Labor Day Friday. Get ready, So I will not

1759
01:48:17,080 --> 01:48:24,120
Speaker 1: be talking about college football perhaps until at least September

1760
01:48:24,360 --> 01:48:31,000
Speaker 1: second or third. The one thing I'm going to watch

1761
01:48:31,000 --> 01:48:36,960
Speaker 1: for the advertisements is I am very curious what the

1762
01:48:37,000 --> 01:48:41,080
Speaker 1: AI messaging is. Not how many ads use AI, but

1763
01:48:41,320 --> 01:48:44,520
Speaker 1: how AI is messaged. Right, remember a couple of years ago,

1764
01:48:45,240 --> 01:48:47,200
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl is where we found out how Crypto

1765
01:48:47,280 --> 01:48:50,479
Speaker 1: is going to market itself. I have a feeling right

1766
01:48:50,600 --> 01:48:53,599
Speaker 1: this captive eyeballs we're going to I'm very you know,

1767
01:48:53,720 --> 01:48:57,439
Speaker 1: to watch all the different ways the AI lean in

1768
01:48:57,600 --> 01:49:01,439
Speaker 1: AI companies are going to gemmunicate. I know that's something

1769
01:49:01,479 --> 01:49:05,479
Speaker 1: that I'm intrigued about, curious about, and we'll be making

1770
01:49:05,479 --> 01:49:07,800
Speaker 1: a note up. So with that, let's do a little

1771
01:49:07,840 --> 01:49:10,479
Speaker 1: last check and then we'll get out of here. Ask Chuck,

1772
01:49:12,400 --> 01:49:14,000
Speaker 1: all right, I got six on the screen. I'm going

1773
01:49:14,040 --> 01:49:17,599
Speaker 1: to hit six. That's my goal. I'm sticking to it,

1774
01:49:18,840 --> 01:49:20,800
Speaker 1: all right. This question comes from James. He says, thanks

1775
01:49:20,840 --> 01:49:23,840
Speaker 1: again for the podcast. Listening from France right on helps

1776
01:49:23,880 --> 01:49:26,800
Speaker 1: me think differently about US politics and gives me hope

1777
01:49:26,800 --> 01:49:30,320
Speaker 1: as an institutionalist. I am the king of the institutionalists

1778
01:49:30,920 --> 01:49:34,200
Speaker 1: in independent media. You've said Congress has lost its incentives

1779
01:49:34,240 --> 01:49:36,240
Speaker 1: to act as a check on presidential power, and I

1780
01:49:36,240 --> 01:49:39,439
Speaker 1: wonder if that's partly due to nationalized parties expecting members

1781
01:49:39,439 --> 01:49:41,519
Speaker 1: to fall in line behind the president. But states still

1782
01:49:41,520 --> 01:49:44,559
Speaker 1: defend their authority across party lines. What incentives allow that

1783
01:49:44,840 --> 01:49:48,519
Speaker 1: and could something similar help Congress reclaim its power. Well,

1784
01:49:49,040 --> 01:49:54,240
Speaker 1: so this is where I believe that the fact you know,

1785
01:49:54,280 --> 01:50:01,640
Speaker 1: this is where the power of the primary coupled with

1786
01:50:01,760 --> 01:50:05,360
Speaker 1: the power of gerrymandering, coupled with the power of too

1787
01:50:05,360 --> 01:50:08,120
Speaker 1: big of congressional districts. Right, So I'm on my hobby

1788
01:50:08,160 --> 01:50:11,880
Speaker 1: horse and about that the actual size of the US

1789
01:50:11,920 --> 01:50:15,760
Speaker 1: House is way too small, and the shrinking, the fact

1790
01:50:15,800 --> 01:50:20,360
Speaker 1: that the that the representative democracy is further away from

1791
01:50:20,439 --> 01:50:24,040
Speaker 1: the average person. Right, we have one member of Congress

1792
01:50:24,080 --> 01:50:27,599
Speaker 1: now per eight hundred thousand people, when in nineteen thirty

1793
01:50:27,640 --> 01:50:30,240
Speaker 1: we were one member of Congress per three hundred and

1794
01:50:30,320 --> 01:50:35,160
Speaker 1: fifty thousand people. Eight hundred thousands is the size of

1795
01:50:35,160 --> 01:50:38,559
Speaker 1: a major city in this country. And you can't tell

1796
01:50:38,600 --> 01:50:40,800
Speaker 1: me that is a single community of interest, right. New

1797
01:50:40,880 --> 01:50:43,400
Speaker 1: York City is not a single community of interests. Austin,

1798
01:50:43,439 --> 01:50:46,280
Speaker 1: Texas is not a single community of interests. Detroit, Michigan

1799
01:50:46,400 --> 01:50:48,320
Speaker 1: is not a single community of interest. There are multiple

1800
01:50:48,360 --> 01:50:54,240
Speaker 1: communities of interest within said metro area. So this is

1801
01:50:54,240 --> 01:50:56,080
Speaker 1: where it's like, if you were to ask me, what's

1802
01:50:56,200 --> 01:51:00,679
Speaker 1: one reform that could do this, while well, it's getting

1803
01:51:00,720 --> 01:51:04,599
Speaker 1: rid of partisan primaries, right, if you could empower all

1804
01:51:04,680 --> 01:51:07,400
Speaker 1: voters in every congressional district to have more of a

1805
01:51:07,479 --> 01:51:12,479
Speaker 1: say on who the representative is. So either you're drawing

1806
01:51:12,520 --> 01:51:15,280
Speaker 1: districts to be competitive, which is why I'm always careful

1807
01:51:15,320 --> 01:51:18,080
Speaker 1: not to just trash all jerrymandering because in the way

1808
01:51:18,120 --> 01:51:20,880
Speaker 1: we've all self sorted as a country. We may need

1809
01:51:20,920 --> 01:51:24,679
Speaker 1: a gerrymander to create competition, but you know, you could

1810
01:51:24,720 --> 01:51:29,280
Speaker 1: mandate competition. You could mandate the size of the districts.

1811
01:51:29,520 --> 01:51:31,439
Speaker 1: Maybe no district can be bigger than point zero three

1812
01:51:31,439 --> 01:51:33,360
Speaker 1: percent of the population, which would put it in about

1813
01:51:33,360 --> 01:51:36,840
Speaker 1: one perform in two thousand at the moment. And if

1814
01:51:36,880 --> 01:51:39,320
Speaker 1: you did that, I think it would do. If we

1815
01:51:39,479 --> 01:51:45,320
Speaker 1: did that, and then the gerrymandering doesn't isn't impactful, Partisanship

1816
01:51:45,400 --> 01:51:50,280
Speaker 1: gets diluted, and I think incentives become more regional and

1817
01:51:50,320 --> 01:51:55,760
Speaker 1: geographic rather than partisan. Right now, when you have gerrymandering

1818
01:51:56,479 --> 01:51:59,840
Speaker 1: and partisan primaries, it means the head of the party

1819
01:52:00,080 --> 01:52:04,840
Speaker 1: has all sorts of outsized influence on the individual member

1820
01:52:04,840 --> 01:52:10,040
Speaker 1: of Congress. But if you have if your power comes

1821
01:52:10,080 --> 01:52:13,640
Speaker 1: from because you're you know, the whole of your electorate,

1822
01:52:13,960 --> 01:52:16,320
Speaker 1: well then the electorate itself has more influence on you

1823
01:52:16,439 --> 01:52:18,639
Speaker 1: than the party leader, because the party leader can only

1824
01:52:18,680 --> 01:52:22,440
Speaker 1: help you with one part of your of your constituency,

1825
01:52:23,320 --> 01:52:28,400
Speaker 1: versus having to answer to everybody. So you know, I

1826
01:52:28,400 --> 01:52:30,960
Speaker 1: think we need all three things right Doubling the side

1827
01:52:31,000 --> 01:52:34,200
Speaker 1: of the house right now, it would I would want

1828
01:52:34,479 --> 01:52:36,880
Speaker 1: it should just be one perform a thousand right now.

1829
01:52:36,880 --> 01:52:39,400
Speaker 1: That would mean doubling the sides of the House, that

1830
01:52:39,520 --> 01:52:43,120
Speaker 1: in turn minimizes the impact of gerrymandering. And on top

1831
01:52:43,160 --> 01:52:46,200
Speaker 1: of that, I get rid of partisan primaries and essentially

1832
01:52:46,280 --> 01:52:50,200
Speaker 1: all party you know, everybody votes, and you know, uh

1833
01:52:50,320 --> 01:52:52,439
Speaker 1: for for everybody, top two, whatever it is, you do

1834
01:52:52,479 --> 01:52:55,920
Speaker 1: it that way. Doesn't mean parties can't endorse, doesn't mean

1835
01:52:55,960 --> 01:52:59,880
Speaker 1: parties won't have preferences of who the officially endorsed candidate is,

1836
01:53:00,360 --> 01:53:02,759
Speaker 1: and then they can give those resources in a larger

1837
01:53:03,240 --> 01:53:07,040
Speaker 1: in an all voter primary. But this is how we

1838
01:53:07,080 --> 01:53:09,559
Speaker 1: elect our mayors, and our mayors are the least partisan

1839
01:53:09,600 --> 01:53:13,560
Speaker 1: office holders in America. And if we're tired of partisanship,

1840
01:53:14,439 --> 01:53:21,559
Speaker 1: that's the path to go. Thank you, James. Next question boy,

1841
01:53:21,600 --> 01:53:25,120
Speaker 1: another year. European question from another question from Europe So

1842
01:53:25,160 --> 01:53:28,000
Speaker 1: as sextuary insight insightful analysis that really helps me understand

1843
01:53:28,000 --> 01:53:30,479
Speaker 1: you as politics more clearly from a European perspective. I

1844
01:53:30,520 --> 01:53:32,320
Speaker 1: have two questions. How luckily is it that the divide

1845
01:53:32,360 --> 01:53:35,799
Speaker 1: between MAGA and liberal America becomes unbridgable and turns violent

1846
01:53:36,080 --> 01:53:38,559
Speaker 1: and our Americans even able to protest effectively given how

1847
01:53:38,640 --> 01:53:42,360
Speaker 1: comparatively limited their demonstrations seem compared to European protest kind

1848
01:53:42,360 --> 01:53:45,479
Speaker 1: regards Bernard from EU, you know, Fuddy Bernard. I've heard

1849
01:53:45,479 --> 01:53:47,680
Speaker 1: this from some of my other European friends, going, how

1850
01:53:47,680 --> 01:53:52,719
Speaker 1: come more people aren't in the streets right? My counter

1851
01:53:52,800 --> 01:53:55,720
Speaker 1: on that is, we did the streets stuff, and you know,

1852
01:53:55,760 --> 01:53:58,160
Speaker 1: the public was in the streets a lot in twenty seventeen.

1853
01:53:58,400 --> 01:54:03,880
Speaker 1: In twenty eighteen, I think now it's a bit more concentrated.

1854
01:54:03,920 --> 01:54:08,280
Speaker 1: But one one could argue that, you know, those No

1855
01:54:08,439 --> 01:54:12,599
Speaker 1: Kings protests keep growing, and we're about to have another one,

1856
01:54:12,640 --> 01:54:15,720
Speaker 1: I think, and that's only going to keep growing. So

1857
01:54:16,960 --> 01:54:19,759
Speaker 1: and we've seen the demonstrations in Minneapolis have been huge.

1858
01:54:21,600 --> 01:54:24,760
Speaker 1: But I understand, I get what you're saying. I think

1859
01:54:25,439 --> 01:54:27,800
Speaker 1: what you're saying is it feels like European protests have

1860
01:54:27,840 --> 01:54:31,280
Speaker 1: been bigger than about Trump in America than the American

1861
01:54:31,280 --> 01:54:39,560
Speaker 1: protests about Trump in America. As for the issue of

1862
01:54:41,200 --> 01:54:51,840
Speaker 1: that unbridgeable divide, I am. I'm mostly confident this won't

1863
01:54:51,880 --> 01:54:57,000
Speaker 1: end with violence, that this era that here's what I

1864
01:54:57,040 --> 01:55:00,320
Speaker 1: and I say this, and I don't say it for

1865
01:55:00,400 --> 01:55:03,160
Speaker 1: dramatic purposes, but look, we're going to get through this.

1866
01:55:04,720 --> 01:55:08,600
Speaker 1: We've been through these periods before. Now, a lot of

1867
01:55:08,600 --> 01:55:11,240
Speaker 1: people had to die before we got through it. With

1868
01:55:11,320 --> 01:55:15,800
Speaker 1: the Civil War, a lot of people died with our

1869
01:55:16,320 --> 01:55:20,000
Speaker 1: horrible labor laws in the nineteen hundreds and the nineteen tens.

1870
01:55:20,800 --> 01:55:23,320
Speaker 1: A lot of people die during the civil rights movement.

1871
01:55:24,600 --> 01:55:26,520
Speaker 1: So the question is how many people have to die

1872
01:55:26,600 --> 01:55:30,280
Speaker 1: before we sort of turned the corner? How violent? It's

1873
01:55:30,320 --> 01:55:35,520
Speaker 1: already violent. We've already had violence, right, January six was

1874
01:55:35,520 --> 01:55:39,680
Speaker 1: pretty violent. We've had two assassination attempts on Donald Trump.

1875
01:55:41,240 --> 01:55:45,560
Speaker 1: We've had those assassinations in Minneapolis, first of the lawmakers,

1876
01:55:45,600 --> 01:55:57,400
Speaker 1: then then the the two killings by Ice agents. The

1877
01:55:57,520 --> 01:56:02,800
Speaker 1: question is, so, look, we'll get through this. How how

1878
01:56:03,520 --> 01:56:09,160
Speaker 1: much blood has to be spilled? Can we get through

1879
01:56:09,200 --> 01:56:11,320
Speaker 1: this without a full fledged civil war? And you heard

1880
01:56:11,320 --> 01:56:16,560
Speaker 1: Tim Wilson. Now I think we don't want to be there,

1881
01:56:16,880 --> 01:56:19,440
Speaker 1: but it only takes you know, we are on it.

1882
01:56:19,560 --> 01:56:25,560
Speaker 1: We're in a tinder box. You know. I'll tell you

1883
01:56:25,600 --> 01:56:29,600
Speaker 1: a scenario that I've been very nervous about. If things

1884
01:56:29,640 --> 01:56:34,720
Speaker 1: had kept escalating in Minneapolis. Now, Donald Trump chose the escalation.

1885
01:56:36,560 --> 01:56:39,480
Speaker 1: So did Tom Holman, right by sending Tom Homan there.

1886
01:56:39,480 --> 01:56:41,640
Speaker 1: And they're making and some of the moves are real,

1887
01:56:41,720 --> 01:56:45,800
Speaker 1: and some of them might be the UH for show,

1888
01:56:45,840 --> 01:56:48,720
Speaker 1: But it all is in an attempt to de escalate,

1889
01:56:48,800 --> 01:56:52,560
Speaker 1: not escalate, and what it but it thinks escalate? It

1890
01:56:53,040 --> 01:56:55,480
Speaker 1: does Tim Walls call in the National Guard? And if

1891
01:56:55,480 --> 01:57:00,280
Speaker 1: Tim Walls calls in the National Guard, does truck then

1892
01:57:00,320 --> 01:57:02,880
Speaker 1: try to federalize that National Guard? And who does is?

1893
01:57:03,080 --> 01:57:08,839
Speaker 1: Do we see the National Guard and Minneapolis PD shooting

1894
01:57:11,200 --> 01:57:13,720
Speaker 1: or being shot at by ice and vice versa? Right?

1895
01:57:14,600 --> 01:57:25,280
Speaker 1: So I almost am uncomfortable even articulating that scenario, but

1896
01:57:25,360 --> 01:57:27,640
Speaker 1: we have to be honest. Right, it's all it's crossed,

1897
01:57:27,840 --> 01:57:32,280
Speaker 1: clearly crossed your mind and it's crossed my mind. But

1898
01:57:32,360 --> 01:57:34,520
Speaker 1: I don't think these divides are unbridgable. But I do

1899
01:57:34,600 --> 01:57:37,400
Speaker 1: think and I go back to something I've said, and

1900
01:57:38,000 --> 01:57:39,520
Speaker 1: I think I've said it here a few times, and

1901
01:57:39,840 --> 01:57:44,960
Speaker 1: I certainly say to my speeches, which is, you know

1902
01:57:45,000 --> 01:57:51,480
Speaker 1: what I think the biggest reason why particularly you guys

1903
01:57:51,480 --> 01:57:55,200
Speaker 1: in Europe are struggling. You can't figure out what you're

1904
01:57:55,200 --> 01:57:58,560
Speaker 1: seeing here. This looks so Unamerican. Is the American the

1905
01:57:58,600 --> 01:58:05,080
Speaker 1: America you're used to was Cold War America? Well, Cold

1906
01:58:05,120 --> 01:58:09,040
Speaker 1: War America was an outlier in America. Cold War America

1907
01:58:09,160 --> 01:58:13,080
Speaker 1: was the most pragmatic version of America that we had.

1908
01:58:15,040 --> 01:58:22,720
Speaker 1: The rest American politics up until nineteen forty, you know,

1909
01:58:22,840 --> 01:58:26,240
Speaker 1: seventeen eighty nine right for the Constitution in nineteen forty

1910
01:58:26,680 --> 01:58:35,400
Speaker 1: and American politics, you know, from I'm going to go

1911
01:58:35,440 --> 01:58:37,920
Speaker 1: ahead and say two thousand and five, two thousand and

1912
01:58:38,000 --> 01:58:44,680
Speaker 1: four to today has been very familiar. Our natural state

1913
01:58:45,600 --> 01:58:51,000
Speaker 1: is polarization. We make fifty two forty eight, fifty one

1914
01:58:51,000 --> 01:58:55,560
Speaker 1: to forty nine decisions. We don't make seventy thirty decisions.

1915
01:58:55,960 --> 01:58:58,440
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of people that are always going

1916
01:58:58,480 --> 01:59:01,080
Speaker 1: to be in the minority, and we make decisions as

1917
01:59:01,080 --> 01:59:06,720
Speaker 1: a country. It's not lost on me that we had

1918
01:59:06,760 --> 01:59:13,840
Speaker 1: our biggest growth as an economic and uh security power

1919
01:59:14,240 --> 01:59:16,960
Speaker 1: in the Cold War, when we were the most pragmatic,

1920
01:59:17,200 --> 01:59:23,600
Speaker 1: when we both parties kept their extremes at bay, and

1921
01:59:23,680 --> 01:59:27,240
Speaker 1: you know, we focused on the existential threat that was

1922
01:59:27,280 --> 01:59:31,680
Speaker 1: the Soviets and the fear of nuclear holocaust, and that

1923
01:59:31,800 --> 01:59:38,160
Speaker 1: kept us sober politically. Then that fear went away, So

1924
01:59:40,600 --> 01:59:43,280
Speaker 1: it so I don't so, I guess what I'm saying

1925
01:59:43,320 --> 01:59:49,080
Speaker 1: is the divides have always been unbridgable, but it but

1926
01:59:49,120 --> 01:59:53,560
Speaker 1: they're but they've been tolerated. Right, We tolerate our divides,

1927
01:59:53,600 --> 01:59:58,680
Speaker 1: we accept that we disagree on what those divides are,

1928
01:59:58,720 --> 02:00:03,480
Speaker 1: and we kind of muddle through. So we'll get there.

1929
02:00:05,840 --> 02:00:09,720
Speaker 1: But we've done a ton of damage. And you know,

1930
02:00:09,960 --> 02:00:14,720
Speaker 1: I it's going to take decades to restore the faith

1931
02:00:14,800 --> 02:00:18,000
Speaker 1: of global allies to stick by the United States again.

1932
02:00:19,440 --> 02:00:23,640
Speaker 1: We're probably going to have to We're probably going to

1933
02:00:23,720 --> 02:00:25,480
Speaker 1: have to go seventy percent of the way when all

1934
02:00:25,520 --> 02:00:28,120
Speaker 1: of these relationships for a while, when for a long

1935
02:00:28,160 --> 02:00:31,320
Speaker 1: time we only had to go thirty percent of the way.

1936
02:00:32,480 --> 02:00:39,040
Speaker 1: And we're going to have to have leaders, people that

1937
02:00:39,120 --> 02:00:42,200
Speaker 1: run for president, that accept the premise of what America

1938
02:00:42,240 --> 02:00:44,240
Speaker 1: is supposed to be. And you know, look, this is

1939
02:00:44,280 --> 02:00:47,160
Speaker 1: the first un American president we've ever had. He does

1940
02:00:47,200 --> 02:00:49,880
Speaker 1: not believe in the story of America. He does not

1941
02:00:50,040 --> 02:00:54,400
Speaker 1: believe that America is an idea. You know, he doesn't.

1942
02:00:54,520 --> 02:00:57,440
Speaker 1: I don't. And here's the thing with Trump. It's not

1943
02:00:57,520 --> 02:00:59,400
Speaker 1: that he doesn't believe it. I don't think he's really

1944
02:00:59,440 --> 02:01:04,240
Speaker 1: thought about it. You know, I think about it all

1945
02:01:04,240 --> 02:01:07,200
Speaker 1: the time. I think of every president as a chapter

1946
02:01:07,240 --> 02:01:12,880
Speaker 1: in the story of America. He doesn't most of our

1947
02:01:13,520 --> 02:01:17,560
Speaker 1: not most every president in my lifetime, and every president

1948
02:01:17,800 --> 02:01:20,840
Speaker 1: for the most part that I've read about, believed that

1949
02:01:20,880 --> 02:01:24,040
Speaker 1: a baton was passed to them, and they were going

1950
02:01:24,120 --> 02:01:27,680
Speaker 1: to be passing a baton, and that they were all

1951
02:01:27,800 --> 02:01:31,800
Speaker 1: writing another chapter in the story of America. Donald Trump

1952
02:01:31,880 --> 02:01:34,040
Speaker 1: doesn't want a chapter. He wants to throw away that

1953
02:01:34,120 --> 02:01:36,200
Speaker 1: book and only have a book, the Book of Trump.

1954
02:01:37,680 --> 02:01:41,480
Speaker 1: But he does not believe in the You know, I

1955
02:01:41,480 --> 02:01:43,760
Speaker 1: don't think he knows what a federalist paper is, and

1956
02:01:43,800 --> 02:01:46,200
Speaker 1: I promise you he hasn't read it all. If he's read one,

1957
02:01:46,280 --> 02:01:58,000
Speaker 1: he didn't done it since grade school. Next question comes

1958
02:01:58,000 --> 02:02:02,720
Speaker 1: from got somebody from Chicago. It's Mike, he said, some president.

1959
02:02:02,760 --> 02:02:05,040
Speaker 1: I were debating wild scenarios where Trump could serve a

1960
02:02:05,040 --> 02:02:07,080
Speaker 1: third term. One theory floated was that if Trump became

1961
02:02:07,120 --> 02:02:09,280
Speaker 1: Speaker of the House and the newly elected president and

1962
02:02:09,360 --> 02:02:12,080
Speaker 1: VP resigned, he could ascend to the presidency again. I

1963
02:02:12,120 --> 02:02:14,560
Speaker 1: know the Constitution bars him from being elected president again,

1964
02:02:14,920 --> 02:02:18,720
Speaker 1: but could he legally return via the line of succession.

1965
02:02:19,280 --> 02:02:22,600
Speaker 1: So it's funny. The Speaker of the House loophole has

1966
02:02:22,600 --> 02:02:26,720
Speaker 1: always been the one I've thought about too. I interviewed

1967
02:02:26,760 --> 02:02:32,160
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon about ten months ago and we went through

1968
02:02:32,200 --> 02:02:34,560
Speaker 1: this ould Trump twenty eight and he's like, oh, he's

1969
02:02:34,560 --> 02:02:37,840
Speaker 1: gonna be unbalot And I said, I said, I know

1970
02:02:37,880 --> 02:02:42,040
Speaker 1: you want to I said, constitution bars it. And he says, well,

1971
02:02:42,080 --> 02:02:46,280
Speaker 1: you just wait, We've got a path. It's the only

1972
02:02:46,360 --> 02:02:51,200
Speaker 1: one I can think of, is that one. I think

1973
02:02:51,240 --> 02:02:54,680
Speaker 1: that's the only one. I think it's the you know,

1974
02:02:55,800 --> 02:02:59,280
Speaker 1: it fits the description that my friend likes to say,

1975
02:02:59,280 --> 02:03:01,320
Speaker 1: which is, you know, our biggest problem with Trump is

1976
02:03:01,320 --> 02:03:05,680
Speaker 1: failure of imagination. You know, Donald Trump doesn't spend a

1977
02:03:05,680 --> 02:03:07,560
Speaker 1: lot of time thinking about what's the best way to

1978
02:03:07,600 --> 02:03:09,520
Speaker 1: tame the Iranians, but he does think a lot of

1979
02:03:09,560 --> 02:03:12,480
Speaker 1: time about all the different loopholes that he can exploit

1980
02:03:12,800 --> 02:03:15,960
Speaker 1: in the Constitution. When you look at the language of

1981
02:03:16,000 --> 02:03:20,160
Speaker 1: the twenty second Amendment, it keeps using the word elected. Right,

1982
02:03:20,240 --> 02:03:24,200
Speaker 1: So that's loophole that you've found very well. And I

1983
02:03:24,240 --> 02:03:27,440
Speaker 1: think that that's a fair loophole. But the twelfth Amendment

1984
02:03:27,520 --> 02:03:32,040
Speaker 1: is fascinating because the wording doesn't have elected in there.

1985
02:03:33,200 --> 02:03:36,960
Speaker 1: It just simply says, no person constitutionally ineligible to the

1986
02:03:37,000 --> 02:03:39,520
Speaker 1: office of President shall be eligible to that a vice

1987
02:03:39,560 --> 02:03:44,320
Speaker 1: president of the United States, and you're ineligible. No person

1988
02:03:44,800 --> 02:03:47,480
Speaker 1: let's read the word no person shall be elected to

1989
02:03:47,520 --> 02:03:50,320
Speaker 1: the office of president more than twice. And no person

1990
02:03:50,320 --> 02:03:52,600
Speaker 1: who has held the office of president or acted as

1991
02:03:52,640 --> 02:03:55,680
Speaker 1: president for more than two years of a term to

1992
02:03:55,720 --> 02:03:58,280
Speaker 1: which some other person was elected president shall be elected

1993
02:03:58,280 --> 02:04:03,320
Speaker 1: to the office of the president more than once. Right,

1994
02:04:03,360 --> 02:04:06,680
Speaker 1: that's if a vice president takes over and serves less

1995
02:04:06,680 --> 02:04:09,160
Speaker 1: than two years of the previous president's term, they can

1996
02:04:09,160 --> 02:04:11,839
Speaker 1: still run for two full terms of their own, potentially

1997
02:04:11,840 --> 02:04:18,040
Speaker 1: serving ten years. So you know, the word elected matters

1998
02:04:18,040 --> 02:04:23,080
Speaker 1: a lot there. Right, you have to assume that Republicans

1999
02:04:23,120 --> 02:04:26,800
Speaker 1: win a House majority for this to happen. You have

2000
02:04:26,880 --> 02:04:30,960
Speaker 1: to assume that Donald Trump can get all the votes

2001
02:04:30,960 --> 02:04:35,400
Speaker 1: he needs to be speaker, so he would still have

2002
02:04:35,480 --> 02:04:40,280
Speaker 1: to go through a process right to become speaker. And

2003
02:04:40,400 --> 02:04:44,560
Speaker 1: I just you know, so, I think you've identified the

2004
02:04:44,600 --> 02:04:51,320
Speaker 1: one loophole where you could claim a fig leaf of

2005
02:04:51,400 --> 02:04:56,960
Speaker 1: constitutional legitimacy. But in some ways it reminds me of

2006
02:04:57,640 --> 02:05:03,920
Speaker 1: Putin and Medvedev. Phutin decided to become prime minister to

2007
02:05:04,040 --> 02:05:07,839
Speaker 1: abide by what was a two term limit in Russia,

2008
02:05:08,200 --> 02:05:12,560
Speaker 1: right for president, So what does he do? He makes

2009
02:05:12,600 --> 02:05:18,200
Speaker 1: the prime minister slot of the more powerful slot. He

2010
02:05:18,520 --> 02:05:22,880
Speaker 1: slides in and becomes Prime minister. Medvedev becomes the president. Right,

2011
02:05:23,000 --> 02:05:24,760
Speaker 1: he's the head of state. But that's really it. It's

2012
02:05:24,800 --> 02:05:27,880
Speaker 1: kind of like he weakened the presidency for that period

2013
02:05:27,920 --> 02:05:32,520
Speaker 1: of time to sort of how Israel's presidency works. Right,

2014
02:05:32,600 --> 02:05:36,040
Speaker 1: the prime minister has all the power, the presidency is

2015
02:05:36,080 --> 02:05:40,040
Speaker 1: head of state, a little more ceremonial, a few pieces

2016
02:05:40,080 --> 02:05:44,400
Speaker 1: of power, but not a ton. That's what this would

2017
02:05:44,440 --> 02:05:49,240
Speaker 1: feel like, right, And I I think you've identified the loophole,

2018
02:05:50,520 --> 02:05:55,040
Speaker 1: and I also believe that attempting it it would be impossible.

2019
02:05:55,960 --> 02:05:58,400
Speaker 1: I still think if there's going to be a Trump

2020
02:06:00,600 --> 02:06:05,080
Speaker 1: on the ballot, and that's the thing, right, Like Republicans

2021
02:06:05,080 --> 02:06:07,839
Speaker 1: would rather have a Trump on a ballot than Trumps president,

2022
02:06:08,360 --> 02:06:11,800
Speaker 1: right because they it's Trump's voters that they need to

2023
02:06:11,240 --> 02:06:15,200
Speaker 1: get their majorities in Congress, and they don't necessarily want

2024
02:06:15,200 --> 02:06:19,160
Speaker 1: to actually work with Trump the situation you're outlining, you know,

2025
02:06:19,200 --> 02:06:21,720
Speaker 1: and do they just campaign that Trump's going to run

2026
02:06:21,760 --> 02:06:25,760
Speaker 1: for speaker and then you make it a referendum on that? Right?

2027
02:06:26,440 --> 02:06:31,280
Speaker 1: But I do think you've found the loophole that it

2028
02:06:31,720 --> 02:06:38,320
Speaker 1: in theory could be it. I will just say I

2029
02:06:38,400 --> 02:06:40,360
Speaker 1: just don't think it could. I don't think it could

2030
02:06:40,360 --> 02:06:42,840
Speaker 1: pull it off. And then you know, the actuary tables

2031
02:06:43,080 --> 02:06:45,400
Speaker 1: are going to catch up to Donald Trump sooner than

2032
02:06:45,440 --> 02:06:48,880
Speaker 1: you think. Next question comes from Brandon and Charlotte. Hey,

2033
02:06:48,920 --> 02:06:50,800
Speaker 1: I really enjoy the podcast. Appreciate how you keep us

2034
02:06:50,840 --> 02:06:53,520
Speaker 1: informed without leaning into full doom and gloom. What are

2035
02:06:53,560 --> 02:06:55,760
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the DJ Collecting voter rolls and seizing

2036
02:06:55,800 --> 02:06:58,280
Speaker 1: ballot boxes in Fulton County, Georgia feels like voter suppression

2037
02:06:58,360 --> 02:07:00,320
Speaker 1: or worse, a way to track and target people who

2038
02:07:00,320 --> 02:07:02,160
Speaker 1: din't vote for Trump. Why isn't this getting more attention

2039
02:07:02,440 --> 02:07:06,200
Speaker 1: and how concerned should we be? Well, I think it's

2040
02:07:06,240 --> 02:07:09,640
Speaker 1: getting a decent amount of tension. What I don't understand

2041
02:07:09,720 --> 02:07:11,600
Speaker 1: is what they want to do with all these voter roles.

2042
02:07:11,640 --> 02:07:13,520
Speaker 1: I think some of this has to do with just

2043
02:07:13,560 --> 02:07:17,680
Speaker 1: simply purging roles voter roles and just trying to make

2044
02:07:17,720 --> 02:07:20,280
Speaker 1: it harder. You know, people are going to have to reregister.

2045
02:07:21,360 --> 02:07:24,560
Speaker 1: I know what I would do if you're concerned that

2046
02:07:24,800 --> 02:07:27,280
Speaker 1: they're messing with your voter registration, just go register to

2047
02:07:27,360 --> 02:07:30,440
Speaker 1: vote again. You know it cancels out the old registration

2048
02:07:30,720 --> 02:07:35,480
Speaker 1: and just do it again. That would be the number

2049
02:07:35,480 --> 02:07:38,000
Speaker 1: one way I'd protect myself on this if if I

2050
02:07:38,040 --> 02:07:40,520
Speaker 1: had af I were a registered voter in a state

2051
02:07:41,000 --> 02:07:44,360
Speaker 1: that has agreed to letting the Department of Justice have

2052
02:07:44,400 --> 02:07:51,120
Speaker 1: the voter roles. You know, there's a part of me

2053
02:07:51,200 --> 02:07:55,720
Speaker 1: that says, call their bluff and say, you know, yes,

2054
02:07:55,960 --> 02:07:59,000
Speaker 1: let's let's let's do an audit of all the voter roles.

2055
02:07:59,440 --> 02:08:02,120
Speaker 1: Let's set up a special committee, and let's explain how

2056
02:08:02,160 --> 02:08:08,800
Speaker 1: it works and explain how each state does it. Ultimately,

2057
02:08:10,920 --> 02:08:12,720
Speaker 1: what I think Trump's up to is that he just

2058
02:08:13,720 --> 02:08:19,080
Speaker 1: he just wants to keep feeding the conspiracy that he's

2059
02:08:19,080 --> 02:08:24,680
Speaker 1: somehow won in twenty twenty. And it's he is just

2060
02:08:24,720 --> 02:08:30,720
Speaker 1: so committed to it. I mean, I guess it's amazing

2061
02:08:30,760 --> 02:08:34,080
Speaker 1: that he's committed to the bit this long, right, but

2062
02:08:34,160 --> 02:08:38,000
Speaker 1: it is sort of I find it laughable, except it's

2063
02:08:38,040 --> 02:08:40,400
Speaker 1: so serious, right, what he's trying to do in the

2064
02:08:40,400 --> 02:08:45,760
Speaker 1: manipulation of it all. Yeah, I think what you're I

2065
02:08:45,760 --> 02:08:50,000
Speaker 1: think the realistic fear we should have is a form

2066
02:08:50,040 --> 02:08:53,839
Speaker 1: of voter suppression, which is just purging of voter rolls

2067
02:08:54,120 --> 02:08:59,800
Speaker 1: or using it to you know, perhaps the information is

2068
02:08:59,800 --> 02:09:05,640
Speaker 1: get into some nefarious political direct mail company to scare

2069
02:09:05,680 --> 02:09:09,200
Speaker 1: those voters from voting. But there are other ways to

2070
02:09:09,200 --> 02:09:12,920
Speaker 1: get those voter roles too, But that's what that's why,

2071
02:09:13,840 --> 02:09:17,200
Speaker 1: you know. I think the fail safe is if you're

2072
02:09:17,200 --> 02:09:21,280
Speaker 1: in one of these states that is decided to not

2073
02:09:21,360 --> 02:09:24,720
Speaker 1: care about their Tenth Amendment rights. I'm very curious to

2074
02:09:24,720 --> 02:09:26,760
Speaker 1: see what happens with this lawsuit from Fulton County with

2075
02:09:26,800 --> 02:09:29,680
Speaker 1: it and see if they get their ballots back. If

2076
02:09:29,680 --> 02:09:33,240
Speaker 1: federalism is still in existence, they'll get their ballots back.

2077
02:09:36,120 --> 02:09:40,680
Speaker 1: But I would I would advocate for, you know, just

2078
02:09:41,040 --> 02:09:45,280
Speaker 1: go red story again, give them more voter roles to

2079
02:09:45,320 --> 02:09:50,760
Speaker 1: go through. Next question comes from Brian. Hey, I've been

2080
02:09:50,760 --> 02:09:52,720
Speaker 1: a fan of your work since twenty oh seven. All right,

2081
02:09:52,720 --> 02:09:54,800
Speaker 1: thanks for everything you do. Maybe I need a refreshment.

2082
02:09:54,800 --> 02:10:00,880
Speaker 1: Our politics usually works what as usual anymore? But anyway,

2083
02:10:01,160 --> 02:10:03,200
Speaker 1: but isn't it unusual for the out party to get

2084
02:10:03,200 --> 02:10:05,240
Speaker 1: a bill through? How much influence should we expect in

2085
02:10:05,280 --> 02:10:08,800
Speaker 1: a situation like this? Best bride? One hundred percent? Now,

2086
02:10:09,040 --> 02:10:16,360
Speaker 1: I'll say this Traditionally, when a president gets shell ACKed

2087
02:10:16,400 --> 02:10:21,080
Speaker 1: in a midterm George W. Bush oh six, Barack Obama

2088
02:10:21,120 --> 02:10:24,520
Speaker 1: twenty ten and twenty fourteen, Bill Clinton nineteen ninety four.

2089
02:10:26,480 --> 02:10:32,200
Speaker 1: They've wanted to prove that, particularly Obama twenty ten and

2090
02:10:33,720 --> 02:10:36,120
Speaker 1: Clinton ninety four, because they had their own real ex

2091
02:10:36,120 --> 02:10:39,480
Speaker 1: storry about that. Hey, all right, we can go I

2092
02:10:39,520 --> 02:10:41,480
Speaker 1: can govern with the other side. Let me show you

2093
02:10:41,520 --> 02:10:43,480
Speaker 1: how I can govern with the other side. And there's you.

2094
02:10:43,600 --> 02:10:45,960
Speaker 1: And by the way, the new majority usually it's in

2095
02:10:46,040 --> 02:10:48,360
Speaker 1: their interest to prove because a lot of them won

2096
02:10:48,440 --> 02:10:50,240
Speaker 1: by saying, look, I'll work with Trump where I can,

2097
02:10:50,360 --> 02:10:51,840
Speaker 1: or you know, I'll work with Obama where I can,

2098
02:10:51,880 --> 02:10:58,720
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So so bad. There might be

2099
02:10:59,120 --> 02:11:01,880
Speaker 1: a few a few things here or there. Maybe it's

2100
02:11:01,880 --> 02:11:05,680
Speaker 1: on healthcare subsidies. I mean, Trump's such a political chameleon, right,

2101
02:11:05,680 --> 02:11:10,000
Speaker 1: he has no ideology, And if you know, it all

2102
02:11:10,000 --> 02:11:16,280
Speaker 1: depends on how much the Democrats want to want to

2103
02:11:16,640 --> 02:11:21,560
Speaker 1: allow Trump to come along for the ride, you know,

2104
02:11:21,760 --> 02:11:24,840
Speaker 1: or do they want instead to prepare for twenty twenty

2105
02:11:24,880 --> 02:11:29,280
Speaker 1: eight in twenty twenty nine, right, and you and you

2106
02:11:29,400 --> 02:11:33,080
Speaker 1: actually pass bills that are designed to be vetoed. So

2107
02:11:33,160 --> 02:11:35,400
Speaker 1: I think there are two ways if Democrats get control

2108
02:11:35,400 --> 02:11:38,200
Speaker 1: of Congress, of what you know, you find a few

2109
02:11:38,200 --> 02:11:41,720
Speaker 1: things you can work on, particularly affordability, maybe something on electricity.

2110
02:11:42,440 --> 02:11:44,840
Speaker 1: You know, there's going to be things that you should

2111
02:11:44,880 --> 02:11:47,520
Speaker 1: you got your budgets and things like that. But I

2112
02:11:47,600 --> 02:11:51,360
Speaker 1: might argue that if you're if you're trying, you know

2113
02:11:51,400 --> 02:11:55,480
Speaker 1: that you you pass some bills and you dare him

2114
02:11:55,480 --> 02:11:58,160
Speaker 1: to veto it. Now, the question is what if he doesn't.

2115
02:11:58,640 --> 02:12:01,880
Speaker 1: And this is Trump, you never know how much do

2116
02:12:01,920 --> 02:12:07,160
Speaker 1: you attempt to work with him? I think it depends

2117
02:12:07,160 --> 02:12:09,520
Speaker 1: on how you got elected. I think some people got

2118
02:12:09,560 --> 02:12:13,960
Speaker 1: elected to say we've got to eradicate Trump from politics,

2119
02:12:13,960 --> 02:12:17,800
Speaker 1: and some people will get elected by promising those swing voters.

2120
02:12:17,800 --> 02:12:19,520
Speaker 1: Look they're you know, I'm not going to throw out

2121
02:12:19,520 --> 02:12:25,680
Speaker 1: every idea just because Trump came up with it. But

2122
02:12:27,080 --> 02:12:32,200
Speaker 1: I do think when you look at you know, there

2123
02:12:32,280 --> 02:12:37,560
Speaker 1: was some affordability bills, that some economic stimulus that the

2124
02:12:37,600 --> 02:12:42,440
Speaker 1: Democrats passed in seven that George W. Bush signed. There

2125
02:12:42,520 --> 02:12:47,000
Speaker 1: was certainly welfare reform that Republicans passed that bill Clinton signed.

2126
02:12:48,160 --> 02:12:52,480
Speaker 1: So and we like, I go back to there's no

2127
02:12:52,560 --> 02:12:58,360
Speaker 1: greater political chameleon than Donald Trump. And you know there's

2128
02:12:58,400 --> 02:13:01,600
Speaker 1: always this one instinctive hit like look at what he

2129
02:13:01,640 --> 02:13:04,280
Speaker 1: did was how he was with mom Donnie? Oh, Mom

2130
02:13:04,320 --> 02:13:06,760
Speaker 1: Donnie won by you. You know, he likes to be

2131
02:13:06,800 --> 02:13:10,440
Speaker 1: associated with winners, and he may deem especially if it's

2132
02:13:10,480 --> 02:13:13,640
Speaker 1: a blowout. He may want to show that there are

2133
02:13:13,680 --> 02:13:15,440
Speaker 1: some things he's because that means some of his voters

2134
02:13:15,480 --> 02:13:21,440
Speaker 1: voted for the Democrats. So I wouldn't don't, I wouldn't assume.

2135
02:13:23,720 --> 02:13:26,160
Speaker 1: I wouldn't assume it's that it's going to be nothing

2136
02:13:26,160 --> 02:13:29,760
Speaker 1: but messaging bills if Democrats win full control of Congress

2137
02:13:29,920 --> 02:13:33,480
Speaker 1: in working with Trump. All right, I'm going to have

2138
02:13:33,480 --> 02:13:36,000
Speaker 1: two more questions here and this will be I will

2139
02:13:36,000 --> 02:13:40,680
Speaker 1: empty my mike cue four this week. Hey, Chuck, Anthony

2140
02:13:40,680 --> 02:13:43,000
Speaker 1: from La here, long time, first time, quick question. If

2141
02:13:43,000 --> 02:13:45,360
Speaker 1: the Senate ends up split, say forty eight Republicans, forty

2142
02:13:45,360 --> 02:13:48,040
Speaker 1: eight Democrats and four independents who are the independence? By

2143
02:13:48,040 --> 02:13:51,000
Speaker 1: the way, how is majority controlled determined? Do Independence have

2144
02:13:51,040 --> 02:13:53,120
Speaker 1: to declare a caucus and can they switch at any time?

2145
02:13:53,320 --> 02:13:55,560
Speaker 1: Could that lead to the majority leadership changing hands? Thanks

2146
02:13:55,560 --> 02:13:58,040
Speaker 1: for turning me into a college football fan last year, Anthony,

2147
02:13:58,360 --> 02:14:03,880
Speaker 1: right on, Perhaps the the conferences ESPN or Fox can

2148
02:14:03,880 --> 02:14:06,960
Speaker 1: give me a kickback for for bringing bringing another fan

2149
02:14:06,960 --> 02:14:14,400
Speaker 1: into the fold. Well, the independents also vote on who

2150
02:14:14,440 --> 02:14:18,680
Speaker 1: which who which party? Should organize. Now, some of that

2151
02:14:18,720 --> 02:14:23,000
Speaker 1: stuff's usually negotiated, you know, behind the scenes. Now, who

2152
02:14:23,000 --> 02:14:26,080
Speaker 1: are your for independence? Right? I think Lisa Murkowski is

2153
02:14:26,120 --> 02:14:31,720
Speaker 1: up for grabs, right. I think Lisa Murkowski if if

2154
02:14:32,000 --> 02:14:36,080
Speaker 1: if her vote is the difference between the Democrats having

2155
02:14:36,120 --> 02:14:40,680
Speaker 1: full control of Congress and organizing with them, right, if

2156
02:14:40,680 --> 02:14:45,640
Speaker 1: they are a seat short, does Murkowski become you know,

2157
02:14:45,880 --> 02:14:53,560
Speaker 1: and do Democrats offer her, say, energy and natural resources

2158
02:14:54,840 --> 02:14:58,120
Speaker 1: in exchange for coming over? So the independence in theory

2159
02:14:58,280 --> 02:15:01,720
Speaker 1: have some leverage here if they choose to use it, right,

2160
02:15:01,840 --> 02:15:03,960
Speaker 1: you know, I've always had this dream that the four

2161
02:15:04,000 --> 02:15:06,800
Speaker 1: to six of them in there would be independence and

2162
02:15:06,840 --> 02:15:10,520
Speaker 1: they would always vote in a block right each time,

2163
02:15:10,560 --> 02:15:13,920
Speaker 1: and maybe maybe they would agree, okay, for calendar year

2164
02:15:14,720 --> 02:15:18,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven, Democrats are in charge for calendar year

2165
02:15:18,000 --> 02:15:21,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight, Republicans or whatever it is. But ultimately

2166
02:15:21,920 --> 02:15:27,080
Speaker 1: it's it's you know, if it's one of those where

2167
02:15:27,920 --> 02:15:30,600
Speaker 1: you know, we had it when we had a fifty

2168
02:15:30,600 --> 02:15:33,320
Speaker 1: to fifty Senate with Dick Cheney as the tiebreaker, when

2169
02:15:33,320 --> 02:15:36,840
Speaker 1: George W. Bush came into office, and then Jim Jefferts

2170
02:15:36,840 --> 02:15:39,520
Speaker 1: decided to leave the Republican Party become an independent and

2171
02:15:39,560 --> 02:15:42,000
Speaker 1: caucus with the Democrats. And the minute he did that,

2172
02:15:42,520 --> 02:15:44,400
Speaker 1: it went from a fifty to fifty Senate to a

2173
02:15:44,400 --> 02:15:47,960
Speaker 1: fifty one to forty nine Senate and the Democrats had control.

2174
02:15:48,920 --> 02:15:53,600
Speaker 1: So that's how it works, right, And yes, it can

2175
02:15:53,920 --> 02:15:57,480
Speaker 1: be that fickle. You know. Jefferts just said, Ah, screwt,

2176
02:15:57,680 --> 02:16:00,000
Speaker 1: I'm out now. I think there was a lobbying campaign

2177
02:16:00,160 --> 02:16:02,600
Speaker 1: by Dashel and Harry Reid and all of that stuff

2178
02:16:02,600 --> 02:16:05,680
Speaker 1: that was taking place. You know, Jeffers was the most

2179
02:16:05,720 --> 02:16:08,240
Speaker 1: liberal Republican in the Senate at the time, right, Barack

2180
02:16:08,240 --> 02:16:11,880
Speaker 1: Obama got on inspector to flip to become the sixtieth

2181
02:16:12,320 --> 02:16:15,880
Speaker 1: Democrat for a small period of time until the Scott

2182
02:16:15,880 --> 02:16:23,000
Speaker 1: Brown election. So yeah, in theory, majority can change hands

2183
02:16:23,000 --> 02:16:24,960
Speaker 1: mid term. Wheat, Like I said, it happened in my

2184
02:16:25,000 --> 02:16:31,560
Speaker 1: lifetime in twenty oh one with Vermont Senator Jim Jeffers.

2185
02:16:33,320 --> 02:16:37,160
Speaker 1: Last question comes from Nelson H. In New Orleans, Louisiana.

2186
02:16:37,760 --> 02:16:39,959
Speaker 1: I love the podcast. I'm calling my shot if James

2187
02:16:40,000 --> 02:16:43,480
Speaker 1: Talerico wins the Democratic primary upsets John Cornyn, I'm getting

2188
02:16:43,480 --> 02:16:45,680
Speaker 1: the vibe that his timing could be perfect to catch fire,

2189
02:16:45,760 --> 02:16:47,760
Speaker 1: just like Barack Obama did in twenty eight. Sure it

2190
02:16:47,760 --> 02:16:49,960
Speaker 1: probably won't happen, but think about it. As we all say,

2191
02:16:50,000 --> 02:16:52,160
Speaker 1: history doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does. Rhyme all

2192
02:16:52,160 --> 02:16:55,039
Speaker 1: the best in ghost Saints spelled of course with the

2193
02:16:55,200 --> 02:17:00,920
Speaker 1: French do. I am a believer that of the following

2194
02:17:01,959 --> 02:17:04,959
Speaker 1: that the most likely Democratic nominee in twenty eight is

2195
02:17:04,959 --> 02:17:09,560
Speaker 1: somebody we're not talking about today. I have floated tall

2196
02:17:09,680 --> 02:17:12,000
Speaker 1: Rico as that idea. Now I will say this, I

2197
02:17:12,080 --> 02:17:17,119
Speaker 1: think he's This was a bad week for tall Rico's politics, right,

2198
02:17:17,320 --> 02:17:24,120
Speaker 1: this story about how he referred. According to an influencer,

2199
02:17:24,520 --> 02:17:28,080
Speaker 1: Tall Rico referred to Colin Allred as a mediocre black

2200
02:17:28,120 --> 02:17:34,520
Speaker 1: man versus Jasmine Crockett a talented black woman, and that

2201
02:17:34,680 --> 02:17:39,120
Speaker 1: phrase really took off on social media. Colin Allred certainly

2202
02:17:39,120 --> 02:17:43,199
Speaker 1: took offense to it, understandably. So now there was no recording,

2203
02:17:43,240 --> 02:17:48,760
Speaker 1: it wasn't clear. What was What I found interesting to

2204
02:17:48,800 --> 02:17:51,760
Speaker 1: pick a word was Tall Rico never denied saying it

2205
02:17:52,360 --> 02:17:56,760
Speaker 1: and basically confessed to saying something like it. And then

2206
02:17:56,920 --> 02:17:59,720
Speaker 1: because when you're doing the that isn't what I meant

2207
02:17:59,720 --> 02:18:04,920
Speaker 1: to say, that's code for yeah, I probably was a

2208
02:18:04,920 --> 02:18:07,440
Speaker 1: little loose. Now you've thought he was off the record,

2209
02:18:07,440 --> 02:18:13,600
Speaker 1: but hey, if you're not assuming, you know I do.

2210
02:18:15,080 --> 02:18:17,320
Speaker 1: The only time I assume I'm not being quoted is

2211
02:18:17,400 --> 02:18:20,560
Speaker 1: when I'm in a private home with my close friends

2212
02:18:20,680 --> 02:18:24,600
Speaker 1: or in my house. I am very careful in public.

2213
02:18:25,240 --> 02:18:28,360
Speaker 1: I assume when people say anything to me that it's

2214
02:18:28,440 --> 02:18:32,080
Speaker 1: very possible they're recording that they could be used, you know,

2215
02:18:32,600 --> 02:18:36,480
Speaker 1: in social media for better or for worse. Right, So

2216
02:18:37,480 --> 02:18:40,680
Speaker 1: I am a big milk toaster. When you come and

2217
02:18:40,680 --> 02:18:44,240
Speaker 1: see me in public, it's sort of in sort of

2218
02:18:44,440 --> 02:18:51,160
Speaker 1: you know, unofficial venues. So so I think it's look,

2219
02:18:51,200 --> 02:18:55,160
Speaker 1: he's I think it's done some damage. And you know,

2220
02:18:55,320 --> 02:18:57,840
Speaker 1: I'm not one hundred percent convinced. Colin all Redwood have

2221
02:18:57,920 --> 02:19:01,200
Speaker 1: endorsed Stasman Crockett, but he is now and he's all

2222
02:19:01,240 --> 02:19:10,560
Speaker 1: in now. So but where your head is at is

2223
02:19:10,560 --> 02:19:14,160
Speaker 1: where my head's at. So another name I throw out there,

2224
02:19:14,160 --> 02:19:17,920
Speaker 1: Molly McMorrow, Right, I think she's somebody who are already

2225
02:19:17,920 --> 02:19:20,520
Speaker 1: went viral once when she was a state legislator. She's

2226
02:19:20,560 --> 02:19:24,960
Speaker 1: now decided to run for US Senate. She's I think

2227
02:19:25,000 --> 02:19:28,480
Speaker 1: she's going to be the Goldilocks candidate that Democratic primary, right,

2228
02:19:28,800 --> 02:19:31,400
Speaker 1: Ailey Stephens is going to seem to establishment abd al

2229
02:19:31,440 --> 02:19:33,280
Speaker 1: say it, it might seem too progressive. She's going to be

2230
02:19:33,320 --> 02:19:35,480
Speaker 1: the one that seems to bridge. That's certainly the race

2231
02:19:35,520 --> 02:19:38,040
Speaker 1: she's trying to run, and it's probably going to work

2232
02:19:38,840 --> 02:19:42,520
Speaker 1: just because of how defined I think Stevens and I'll

2233
02:19:42,560 --> 02:19:50,800
Speaker 1: do say it are becoming maybe Rob saying getting elected

2234
02:19:50,800 --> 02:19:56,959
Speaker 1: governor of Iowa. If somebody, some Democrat, pulls a state

2235
02:19:57,000 --> 02:19:59,440
Speaker 1: wide upset in the Deep South, in any race, right,

2236
02:20:00,080 --> 02:20:03,240
Speaker 1: the point is is that I think it's just as likely.

2237
02:20:03,400 --> 02:20:07,480
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Remember Better O'Rourke was considered a major

2238
02:20:07,520 --> 02:20:12,200
Speaker 1: presidential candidate. He didn't even win in twenty eighteen, and

2239
02:20:12,200 --> 02:20:15,200
Speaker 1: within six months of losing, he's considered one of the

2240
02:20:15,200 --> 02:20:18,760
Speaker 1: front runners for the nomination because of how close he

2241
02:20:18,800 --> 02:20:21,760
Speaker 1: came to defeating Ted Cruz in twenty eighteen. So the

2242
02:20:21,760 --> 02:20:26,600
Speaker 1: Democratic Party's history is they're likely more likely to go

2243
02:20:26,680 --> 02:20:30,960
Speaker 1: with the new, freshest face they can find Pete Bootage. Look,

2244
02:20:31,080 --> 02:20:35,400
Speaker 1: without the intervention of Jim Clyburn and Covid, I will

2245
02:20:35,400 --> 02:20:37,680
Speaker 1: go to my grave, believe in Boudhajj and Sanders have

2246
02:20:37,760 --> 02:20:40,680
Speaker 1: a fight to the convention, and I think Pete wins

2247
02:20:40,680 --> 02:20:44,800
Speaker 1: the convention fight. But it's close. But you know, and

2248
02:20:44,840 --> 02:20:49,920
Speaker 1: that's a world without COVID essentially, and in a world

2249
02:20:49,959 --> 02:20:53,680
Speaker 1: that Iowa counted the caucuses correctly and gave Pete his

2250
02:20:53,760 --> 02:20:56,920
Speaker 1: correct victory there in Iowa. But either way, the point was,

2251
02:20:57,400 --> 02:21:00,320
Speaker 1: this former mayor of South Bend, who loved lost a

2252
02:21:00,440 --> 02:21:02,400
Speaker 1: race for d n C chair, suddenly is one of

2253
02:21:02,440 --> 02:21:07,119
Speaker 1: the front runners for the Democratic nomination. Right the Democratic Party.

2254
02:21:07,520 --> 02:21:10,640
Speaker 1: An unknown governor from Georgia ends up the Democratic nominee.

2255
02:21:10,640 --> 02:21:13,640
Speaker 1: A lesser known governor of Arkansas ends up the Democratic.

2256
02:21:14,040 --> 02:21:18,640
Speaker 1: A guy who was state senator in six years before

2257
02:21:18,680 --> 02:21:20,960
Speaker 1: he ever ran for president ends up the nominee in

2258
02:21:20,959 --> 02:21:25,400
Speaker 1: Barack Obama. The history of the Democratic Party is when

2259
02:21:25,400 --> 02:21:30,280
Speaker 1: they and here's another fact in this recent era, when

2260
02:21:30,280 --> 02:21:33,520
Speaker 1: they go with first time candidates, the new candidate, they're

2261
02:21:33,560 --> 02:21:35,840
Speaker 1: more likely to win. When they go with people that

2262
02:21:35,879 --> 02:21:39,840
Speaker 1: have been around a while, they're more likely to lose.

2263
02:21:40,520 --> 02:21:48,039
Speaker 1: Al Gore, John Kerry, Joe Hillary Clinton, sitting Vice President

2264
02:21:48,120 --> 02:21:53,000
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris right. Biden was an outlier, an unusual you know,

2265
02:21:53,040 --> 02:21:57,280
Speaker 1: in a normal primary process, Joe Biden never wins that primary. Right,

2266
02:21:58,040 --> 02:22:04,360
Speaker 1: he was an accidental primary winner because of the circumstances

2267
02:22:04,480 --> 02:22:12,119
Speaker 1: of of Covid and Clyburn, and that nomination was looking

2268
02:22:12,160 --> 02:22:15,879
Speaker 1: a lot more like seventy six with beat Boodaget's Jimmy

2269
02:22:15,879 --> 02:22:23,080
Speaker 1: Carter parallels, or even a bit ninety two with Bill Clinton,

2270
02:22:23,320 --> 02:22:24,800
Speaker 1: you know, having to go all the way to the

2271
02:22:24,800 --> 02:22:31,920
Speaker 1: convention and and keep beating back Jerry Brown. So I

2272
02:22:31,959 --> 02:22:37,240
Speaker 1: don't think you're off kilter here. I like I said,

2273
02:22:38,560 --> 02:22:41,440
Speaker 1: let's see how taal Rico manages this first crisis of

2274
02:22:41,480 --> 02:22:44,879
Speaker 1: his political career. And I'll tell you this. I you

2275
02:22:44,920 --> 02:22:49,240
Speaker 1: know I was. I was more pro tol Rico as

2276
02:22:49,280 --> 02:22:52,760
Speaker 1: a potential dark horse if he'd run for governor than

2277
02:22:53,000 --> 02:22:57,680
Speaker 1: running for Senate. I do think that he's going to

2278
02:22:58,760 --> 02:23:00,879
Speaker 1: I think he'd have made it more because I think

2279
02:23:00,879 --> 02:23:02,720
Speaker 1: he could have run and lost for governor but kept

2280
02:23:02,720 --> 02:23:06,200
Speaker 1: it close and still preserved sort of a future. I

2281
02:23:06,280 --> 02:23:09,920
Speaker 1: think this Senate seat right, especially if Kaka pass the primary.

2282
02:23:09,959 --> 02:23:12,560
Speaker 1: But I just think it's the wrong position. I think

2283
02:23:12,560 --> 02:23:15,879
Speaker 1: he had a serving in Austin in the Texas State legislature.

2284
02:23:16,680 --> 02:23:20,120
Speaker 1: I just thought his issues that he was that Abbott

2285
02:23:20,120 --> 02:23:24,200
Speaker 1: would have been a better foil for him, and it

2286
02:23:24,200 --> 02:23:26,039
Speaker 1: would have been a It would have been better for

2287
02:23:26,080 --> 02:23:29,640
Speaker 1: the party, better for the future of Texas Democrats. But

2288
02:23:29,680 --> 02:23:32,080
Speaker 1: he's trying to take a short cut. He has too

2289
02:23:32,160 --> 02:23:36,120
Speaker 1: many consultants, I think whispering sweet presidential, nothing's in his

2290
02:23:36,200 --> 02:23:42,760
Speaker 1: ear and saying, hey, Senate's an easier road. Okay, good

2291
02:23:42,840 --> 02:23:47,240
Speaker 1: luck with that. But I like your thinking, Nelson, because

2292
02:23:47,480 --> 02:23:51,160
Speaker 1: history backs up your prediction whether it's him. The point is,

2293
02:23:52,520 --> 02:23:55,320
Speaker 1: if you're going to close this off into gambling terms,

2294
02:23:56,200 --> 02:23:59,600
Speaker 1: go find the twelve to fifteen to twenty to one shot.

2295
02:23:59,640 --> 02:24:02,520
Speaker 1: Right now the Democratic primary, they're more likely to be

2296
02:24:02,560 --> 02:24:09,600
Speaker 1: the nominee than one somebody who's run before, and two

2297
02:24:11,240 --> 02:24:20,840
Speaker 1: somebody who had national name recognition ten years earlier. How

2298
02:24:20,840 --> 02:24:25,279
Speaker 1: are that? Enjoy your weekend. I hope nothing crazy happens

2299
02:24:25,280 --> 02:24:31,600
Speaker 1: that I see you before Monday. But if not, hey,

2300
02:24:32,000 --> 02:24:34,480
Speaker 1: that's the beauty of being in this world. We can

2301
02:24:34,560 --> 02:24:37,680
Speaker 1: pop in and quickly jump on something. But if not,

2302
02:24:37,760 --> 02:24:40,640
Speaker 1: for that, I'll see you Monday. Joy the super Bowl