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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing a zong, so we're saying it's a cash touchdown that.

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Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, but

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Speaker 2: they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank small. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, This is the ultimate kabine you want to.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: We are presented by bet MGM. I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen.

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Speaker 4: Today we return with one of the most fun annual

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Speaker 4: episodes of the NFL preseason. I also really enjoy this.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of folks that work at Action

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Speaker 4: Network enjoyed this one when it is published and put

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Speaker 4: out to the people, which you matter more than we do,

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Speaker 4: but I think you'd all agree. I hope we're covering

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Speaker 4: exotic NFL wagers for the twenty twenty four season, basically

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Speaker 4: anything that is not a standard bet or a standard

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Speaker 4: future or an NFL award or a season long player

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Speaker 4: prop all the other stuff. This is when we cover

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Speaker 4: all of the other stuff. We're gonna do it with

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Speaker 4: to our favorites. I think I've done this with these

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Speaker 4: guys now at least, the very least the last couple

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Speaker 4: of years. Joe Galant the touchdown better he's here, And

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Speaker 4: mister Brandon Anderson, I want to get this out there

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Speaker 4: right now before there are any doubts, questions, conspiracy theories. Combined,

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Speaker 4: these two are gonna give out about twenty five bets.

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Speaker 4: So I will speak for them because I've consulted them

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Speaker 4: before we recorded. We're talking like pizza size bets, and

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Speaker 4: I don't mean the actual physical pizza. I mean the

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Speaker 4: price of a pizza. Bonus plays that you might have

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Speaker 4: at your respective books, five to ten dollars long shots.

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Speaker 4: So the hope is to hit one of these and

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Speaker 4: in some cases based on the line, a handful, right.

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Speaker 4: So wanted they get that out there. You do what

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Speaker 4: you want as the gambler, as the audience responsibly, of course,

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Speaker 4: but wanted they get that out there. So, without further ado,

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Speaker 4: our first topic category betting discussion as it pertains to

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Speaker 4: the exotics. Brandon, We're going to talk best record.

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Speaker 3: What do you got? I'm gonna start out with a

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Speaker 3: responsible bet, Brandon, just one. I gotta do one on

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Speaker 3: the podcast, So give me the Chiefs plus seven to fifty.

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Speaker 3: Now you gotta shop around, because I've seen this as

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Speaker 3: low as four hundred and four to fifty. If you're

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Speaker 3: that low, skip it. But if you're getting anywhere near

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Speaker 3: seven to fifty, like, look, I need you to tell

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Speaker 3: you why. It's the Chiefs Pat Mahomes. You got the

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Speaker 3: coaching staff, you got the line, sixth season, six conference championships.

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Speaker 3: The defense is better now, the receivers are better now.

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Speaker 3: The division is terrible. They're gonna beat Denver twice. They're

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Speaker 3: gonna be the Raiders twice. Chargers are moving in the

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Speaker 3: right direction. The spine I like, but no weapons. There

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Speaker 3: are lots of turnover, even like the home Chargers game.

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Speaker 3: That should be the one toughest game. That's a home

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Speaker 3: Chiefs game in Los Angeles. That's an easy home game

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Speaker 3: for them. Also, you can bet Chiefs six and zero

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Speaker 3: in the division plus three seventy five. I like that

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Speaker 3: as well. But if you want the responsible bet here,

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Speaker 3: I project the Chiefs number one overall record twelve point

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Speaker 3: one wins. Now, it's a little low. That's kind my

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Speaker 3: numbers crunch together. I don't have anyone else almost within

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Speaker 3: the one. My next highest is eleven point two wins,

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Speaker 3: So to me if you want to just try to

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Speaker 3: get a winner here. Come on, it's just the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: it's pat We know this by now.

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Speaker 4: And when we do these is, you get this out

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Speaker 4: there too, that Brandon is going to have another one,

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Speaker 4: so he's going to throw. In some cases, we'll have

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Speaker 4: a couple for each of these categories. In some cases

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Speaker 4: might only be one. Last year, Brandon hit Dallas at

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Speaker 4: fourteen to one, and he also had the Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 4: two years ago at twenty to one. I don't know

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Speaker 4: how to put this, but I'm kind of a big deal,

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Speaker 4: and we give that historical data just so you don't

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Speaker 4: think we're a bunch of schmucks, even though you might

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Speaker 4: think so. Anyway, not a suck chill your best record.

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Speaker 2: Sure, So when I usually look at this market, I

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Speaker 2: tend to steer away from the AFC. I just find

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Speaker 2: it's such a blood bat that a lot of the

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Speaker 2: time it's very difficult to project the team having more

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Speaker 2: than twelve wins, just given how hard every team's schedule is.

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Speaker 2: So for myself, I was looking more at the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take them at plus nine hundred. I

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Speaker 2: was flip flopping between them and the Eagles, but I

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Speaker 2: decided with Detroit, and this team is just low key loaded.

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Speaker 2: They made some nice offseason moves, got quarterback Carlton Davis

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Speaker 2: from the Bucks, defensive end Marcus Davenport. They've got a

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Speaker 2: top ranked offensive line. They still have Ben Johnson as

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Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. I think that's key because if he had left,

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Speaker 2: I think we could see a big drop off there offensively.

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Speaker 2: And then of course they've got two stud running backs

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Speaker 2: and David Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs. But the elephant in

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Speaker 2: the room, the guy I have not mentioned yet, is

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff. And Jared Goff is probably the reason that

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Speaker 2: anyone would even detract on this bet. But the one

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Speaker 2: thing I would just reassure people about with Jared Goff,

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Speaker 2: much like last year, he's just infinitely better playing indoors

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Speaker 2: than he is outdoors. Five outdoor games last year, Jared

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Speaker 2: Goff saw his completion rate, touchdown per pass rate, yards

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Speaker 2: per attempt, they all fall off a cliff. When he

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Speaker 2: plays indoors, we see top five quarterback play well. From

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Speaker 2: Week ten onward, Lions only have to play outside twice

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Speaker 2: once in cold weather versus Chicago in Week sixteen, and

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Speaker 2: the other in San Francisco in Week seventeen, which I

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Speaker 2: think may likely end up deciding this market.

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Speaker 3: So what that.

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Speaker 2: Means is that they only have four outdoor games this

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Speaker 2: entire season. Last year they had five, the year before

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Speaker 2: they had six. I don't think it's a coincidence that

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Speaker 2: their record has improved in that time, given that Jared

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Speaker 2: Goff is able to be more effective indoors. So I

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Speaker 2: think the Detroit Lions at nine to one is who

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Speaker 2: I like for the best record in the twenty eighty

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Speaker 2: fourth season.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Lions only have two I would call really

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Speaker 4: tough outdoor games Green Bay November three at Lambeau and

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Speaker 4: then at Chicago the twenty second in December, so there

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Speaker 4: you go. And then both division games of course, so

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Speaker 4: those aren't surprises, but their AFC draws not too shabby

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Speaker 4: as it pertains to the weather being included indoors. Brandon's

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Speaker 4: got a second one for ust best record.

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Speaker 3: Play All right, now, I'm going the long shot here,

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Speaker 3: and I am actually reluctantly in on this team. I

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Speaker 3: guess my matrix. I rank all the positions, quarterbacks, coaches,

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Speaker 3: special teams, the whole thing. This team came out number

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Speaker 3: four in my list, I got Chiefs Eagles forty nine ers,

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Speaker 3: and then my pick here the Cleveland Browns fifty to

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Speaker 3: one for best records. So here's the case. I don't

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Speaker 3: need to make the case for the defense. You watch

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Speaker 3: someone last year. The defense is incredible. Jim Schwartz, I

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Speaker 3: think is the best defensive coordinator right now. The defense

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Speaker 3: actually was probably even better than they looked. They got

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Speaker 3: unlucky in the red zone. They had unlucky turnover numbers.

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Speaker 3: You got Miles Garrett, you got a great pass rush.

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Speaker 3: They've built this team around pass rush and corners. That's

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Speaker 3: the premium position in defense that fits Jim Schwartz. Defense

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Speaker 3: is really good. So the path you want here and

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Speaker 3: when I'm looking at long shots, well you want a

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Speaker 3: long shots are multiple paths. You want to have multiple

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Speaker 3: ways for this bet to come through. You're gonna hear

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Speaker 3: that a lot from me. Cleveland's offense, we need some

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Speaker 3: pass They sucked last year. They were terrible. They were

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Speaker 3: twenty seventh by dB Away. There's a lot of pass here.

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Speaker 3: The offensive line I think is clearly top five if

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Speaker 3: they can get healthy. Last year, their top three tackles

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Speaker 3: basically all we're out for the season now, we're still

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Speaker 3: working on it. Dewan Jones, the third guy, hopefully should

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Speaker 3: be ready to go to the top two guys. We're

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Speaker 3: still sye about the health, but it should be better

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Speaker 3: than last year. The interior is great, The run game

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Speaker 3: hopefully gets better. We're gonna get chubbed back at some point,

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Speaker 3: hopefully that helps. We added Jerry Judy at receiver. That

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Speaker 3: should help a little bit. We added Ken Dorsey offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how it's gonna work. It sounds like

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Speaker 3: Stefanski is still calling the plays, but I think that

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Speaker 3: that is a more pass heavy, more balanced attack that

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Speaker 3: should help a lot. And then, of course, the huge

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Speaker 3: swing factor here is quarterback. Five dudes started games at

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Speaker 3: quarterback for this team last year and made the playoffs

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Speaker 3: first time in NFL history. And I'm reluctantly betting on

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Speaker 3: Deshaun wattson upside here. I put him number sixteen in

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Speaker 3: my quarterback rankings. It's my wildcard spot right in the middle.

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Speaker 3: The last time we saw him healthy, he was a

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Speaker 3: top five quarterback by any metric he used. He was

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Speaker 3: a stud, elite quarterback that could lead this team to

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Speaker 3: a great record. Now, that's three years ago. He missed

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Speaker 3: a season for good reason. He came back mid season

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Speaker 3: with a whole bunch of new teammates and everything, and stunk.

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Speaker 3: That kind of makes sense. Last year he had a

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Speaker 3: shoulder injury, wasn't and out and he was no good.

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Speaker 3: That was on his throwing arm. That kind of makes sense.

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Speaker 3: There are reasons he would be this bad now. He

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Speaker 3: might just be cooked. Actually, kind of don't mind Jameis

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Speaker 3: Winston either. Jamis sort of feels like what Flacco was

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Speaker 3: last year. Shot it up, Give our guys a shot.

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Speaker 3: Let the defense do things. Schedule you start out Raiders, Giants, Washington, Saints, Denver, Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: Lots of easy wins there for a defense this good.

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Speaker 3: That's not all right at the beginning. But I have

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Speaker 3: them at ten and a half wins. I only have

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Speaker 3: three teams above them, the three I mentioned clearly above them.

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Speaker 3: So it's a long shot. I don't I don't want

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl futures. I don't want any part of this

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Speaker 3: team in the playoffs, but I think they could be

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Speaker 3: a one seed getting there with the top record fifty

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Speaker 3: to one in Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 4: I mean, if there's one thing we all agree on

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Speaker 4: when it comes to Cleveland taking up personnel. The coaching staff,

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Speaker 4: I think is beyond impressed with how Kevin Stefanski, no

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Speaker 4: matter who's been his quarterback, Baker Mayfield into Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 4: I mean, fair argument, fair points, love it. But that's

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Speaker 4: why it's a long shot. Let's go to worst record,

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Speaker 4: worst record in the NFL. I can tell you now

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Speaker 4: that the favorite would be the New England Patriots plus

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Speaker 4: two seventy and then there is a drastic, drastic drop

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Speaker 4: off to Panthers, Broncos, so on and so forth. Brandon,

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Speaker 4: who jumps out to you value wise.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Patriots would be my favorite as well, but

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Speaker 3: you can't bet it at that number. I've got four

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Speaker 3: teams basically in a tier at the bottom. I have

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Speaker 3: the Patriots and Broncos he mentioned, and I've got two

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Speaker 3: NFC East teams, New York and Alashie. Here's the thing.

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Speaker 3: Three of those teams just drafted a quarterback in the

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Speaker 3: first round. One of them's got Daniel Jones. So I

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Speaker 3: want the team that's gonna suck and then suck more

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Speaker 3: because they need a pick to get a quarterback next year.

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Speaker 3: The Patriots don't need number one. They got Drake Mail

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Speaker 3: already the Broncos. I mean they still need a quarterback,

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Speaker 3: but that's the certain thing. Washington's not Jayden Daniels. The Giants,

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Speaker 3: if they are bad, have every incentive to be worse

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Speaker 3: and try to be worse and get that number one

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Speaker 3: to pick. You need a quarterback there. I don't think

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Speaker 3: the Laite neighbors is gonna say this offense their bottom

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Speaker 3: of five offensive line. I do like the front seven

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Speaker 3: in defense, but the defensive corner typically is a pass funnel.

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Speaker 3: This is the worst secondary in the league. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that's gonna go that well either. So I see

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Speaker 3: this going very poorly for them. And again I want

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Speaker 3: motivation here. I want the team that wants number one

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Speaker 3: to go get that quarterback. So I like Giants ten

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Speaker 3: to one. That's my favorite here. I've got a long shot,

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Speaker 3: but I think Jill has a favorite in that range.

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Speaker 4: Also, yeah, we want we want Brian Dayball if he

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Speaker 4: keeps job, which more on that coach first coach fired

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Speaker 4: is coming up later in this particular episode. We want

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Speaker 4: we want day Ball sending scouts to Carson Beck Georgia

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Speaker 4: games in November and December for that number one pick.

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Speaker 4: That's that's the idea there. That makes sense. Okay, Jill,

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Speaker 4: go ahead.

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 2: Worst record, Brandon, apologies in advance. I know you're a

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Speaker 2: Vikings fan, but I think they're going to be the

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Speaker 2: worst team in the NFL this year, and at twelve

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Speaker 2: to one, that's the team I want to look at.

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Speaker 2: The quarterback drop off to Sam Darnald cannot be overstated.

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Speaker 3: Brandon.

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Speaker 2: You had Donald at twenty fourth in your overall quarterback rankings,

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Speaker 2: but you did say the disclaimer that he could be

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Speaker 2: this year's Baker. That doesn't necessarily inspire confidence in me.

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Speaker 2: And I will just say this, like when you look

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Speaker 2: at their schedule, like I'm not convinced he's going to

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Speaker 2: be the starter by the time they get to the

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Speaker 2: week six by they might just leave him in London

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Speaker 2: because they've got a tough first five weeks of the year.

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Speaker 2: They faced two teams that rank in the top five

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Speaker 2: in defensive DVOWA last year in the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: and the Jets top two overall if you're using PFF.

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Speaker 2: They've got the Giants on the road to start the

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Speaker 2: year in what I thought was going to be a

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Speaker 2: blitz OFFCA but they've changed defensive coordinators with the Giants,

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Speaker 2: they were first and second in blitz rate last year.

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Speaker 2: But Shane Bowen is coming over from the Titans better

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Speaker 2: run defense. And again with Donald, if that pass rush

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Speaker 2: doesn't get to him in week one, he's not seeing ghosts.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna have the Niners in Week two and that's

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Speaker 2: going to be brutal for him. They've got the Texans

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Speaker 2: the Packers on the road, and then they play the

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Speaker 2: Jets in London and that week six, by when they

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Speaker 2: come out of the break, then they've got the Lions, Rams, Jags,

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Speaker 2: and Colts. Like, if they don't win in Week one,

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Speaker 2: it's conceivable this team could start zero to eight for

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Speaker 2: the year. So also I wanted to give a little

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Speaker 2: shout out to Sean Kerner, our director of predictive Analytics.

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Speaker 2: He has the Vikings with the fifth hardest strength of

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Speaker 2: schedule this year out of all thirty two NFL teams.

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Speaker 2: So I think the Minnesota Vikings with Sam Darnold at

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Speaker 2: quarterback are just going to be brutal. And again, apologies

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Speaker 2: for Brandon, didn't mean the crap on your team too much.

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Speaker 4: Really quick follow up to that Jefferson was banged up

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Speaker 4: last year, they used multiple quarterbacks last year, and they

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Speaker 4: somehow treaded water and wound up in that five hundred

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Speaker 4: ish record. Your response to that.

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Speaker 2: I think there's just too much of a drop off. Again,

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying that they couldn't be able to, you know,

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Speaker 2: manufacture some wins late, but this could be one of

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Speaker 2: those teams like where that just the wheels fall off.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Kevin O'Connell was showing the door. There's just a

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Speaker 2: lot that could go wrong with this team. And it's

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Speaker 2: more about the odds too. At twelve to one, I

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Speaker 2: think that's a team where I would look at whereas

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Speaker 2: instead of a team like New England where the writing's

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Speaker 2: on the wall it's not going to be a good year.

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Speaker 4: Oh no, And then I'll come back on the other side.

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Speaker 4: Hawkinson definitely out the first four weeks. That's a factor, right,

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Speaker 4: Aaron Jones, I know is there And if Jefferson, Jefferson

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Speaker 4: was banged up last season, so Brandon's got one more

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Speaker 4: worst record.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Further down the board, here's my long shot. Give

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Speaker 3: me the Los Angeles Rams worst rocker in the NFL

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Speaker 3: sixty though one now here's the case. Look, we know

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Speaker 3: the offense is going to be really good. Sean McVay, Stafford,

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Speaker 3: the receivers, Karen Williams rounding the ball. Now, the offensive

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Speaker 3: line I have is a top ten offensive line, but

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Speaker 3: it's not been a good training camp. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of injuries there. Cluster injuries online or at corner are

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Speaker 3: a great way to derail the season. You know, it's

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Speaker 3: also a great way to derail the season. Mats Stafford

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Speaker 3: being thirty six and like one hit away from retiring.

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Speaker 3: Remember we thought that a year ago. At this time,

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Speaker 3: we didn't know if he was ever going to come

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Speaker 3: back and be this level again, He's right there. And

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Speaker 3: don't forget his defense was twenty second in DVA last year.

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Speaker 3: They lost Raheem Morris, the defensive coordinator who helped win

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. They lost Aaron Donald, the best defensive

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Speaker 3: player of our lifetimes. They took that off of a

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Speaker 3: bottom ten defense I had. This is the number thirty

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Speaker 3: one defense. They don't really have a strength. They don't

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Speaker 3: have a known name leading the team. And I think

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Speaker 3: it's the best offensive division in football. I mean on

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Speaker 3: Seattle and Arizona. We'll get to them. A little bit

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Speaker 3: later on, even assuming regular health, I had the Rams

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Speaker 3: that six point eight wins had them the sixth worst record,

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Speaker 3: and that is assuming good health. If Stafford gets injured,

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Speaker 3: not only do they lose more games, but they are

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Speaker 3: again a motivated team that needs a quarterback now, that

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Speaker 3: needs the next Stafford on this team. So they're a

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Speaker 3: team that if things start to go badly, I want

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Speaker 3: the long tail down, I want the long way out,

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Speaker 3: and they could be a team. I think mcvay's smart

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Speaker 3: enough here to be like, you know what, let's let's

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Speaker 3: take my lumps for a year. Let's get a peck

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Speaker 3: and get a new quarterback in here if needed if

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Speaker 3: it goes poorly. So Rams sixty to one for worst record.

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Speaker 4: Poka Nakua nicked up in camp, Cooper Cup was out

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Speaker 4: last year in games. Okay, yeah, I mean Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 4: You cannot dismiss the decade plus in Detroit getting his

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Speaker 4: ass beat up. And is that going to catch up

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Speaker 4: with him soon? Right, because we see quarterbacks now playing

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Speaker 4: into thirty nine forty Brady Rogers most recently for sure,

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Speaker 4: and more on the Jets very soon. Okay, let's do

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Speaker 4: this next market where the Jets are going to be well.

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Speaker 4: They were discussed last year. This next market was make

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Speaker 4: Make or Miss the Playoffs, and both Jill and Brandon

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Speaker 4: on this very episode this time last year both hit

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Speaker 4: the Jets at plus one twenty. As we know, four

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Speaker 4: plays in, Aaron Rodgers done for the year. I remember

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Speaker 4: being in New York at Action Network HQ with Brandon

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Speaker 4: the next day, trying to figure out, how do we

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Speaker 4: bet this team, how do we capitalize on this? Well,

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Speaker 4: the Jets are not in this year's conversation brand in

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Speaker 4: this transitions well from Ram's worst record A take on

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Speaker 4: the Rams make or Miss Playoffs?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Rams miss playoffs is plus one oh five. You

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Speaker 3: give me a plus money on a team that I

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Speaker 3: think is a chance at the worst record that I

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Speaker 3: think is number six worst record, even if relatively healthy.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to take that. That's the case. I don't

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Speaker 3: have much more to add to that. I only have

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Speaker 3: the Giants and Commanders below them in the NFC again,

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Speaker 3: the healthy version of them. That's where I have the

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Speaker 3: Rams at, so plus one oh five for them in

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Speaker 3: that division. Though I mentioned the team I want to

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Speaker 3: come back to the Seahawks. We're back to Seahawks Island.

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Speaker 3: It's not quite an island right now because we kind

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Speaker 3: of like them now. They're a THINGXAM make the playoffs

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Speaker 3: plus two point fifteen. I'm in. I just like everything

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Speaker 3: about this team. Love the Mike McDonald higher. I thought

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Speaker 3: he was the number one coaching higher. He's the CEO,

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Speaker 3: He's the guy that all the everyone seemed excited to

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Speaker 3: bring in. Look, Pete Carroll's a good coach, but I

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Speaker 3: think this is a fresh voice for a team that

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Speaker 3: needed a one after many years. I have this defense

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Speaker 3: taking a huge stuff for it. They have on the

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Speaker 3: line Leonard Williams, who they got mid last season, Draymond Jones,

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Speaker 3: they drafted Byron Murphy in the first round. I love

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Speaker 3: linebackers Tyrel Dobson and Jome Baker to kind of like

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Speaker 3: nerd niche backers. I think he'll be really good. Devin Weatherspoon,

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Speaker 3: last year's first round pick. I think he might be

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Speaker 3: the Cal Hamilton on this team for Mike McDonald, that

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Speaker 3: weapon that blows stuff up. And don't forget McDonald's defense

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Speaker 3: specifically in recent years, has been good against the Shanahan

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Speaker 3: McVay offense. They're in this division Shanahan McVay are here.

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Speaker 3: This is the guy you wanted here. I have the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks guys as my number five defense this year, and

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Speaker 3: I like the offense. Ryan Grubb comes over from Washington,

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Speaker 3: not Washington Commanders. We don't like that Washington Husky is

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Speaker 3: from college. Michael Pennix and those receivers we saw bombing

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Speaker 3: it down the field all last season. Gino Smith. I

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Speaker 3: can go back and forth on our guy. The one

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Speaker 3: thing I know he does well is he is the

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Speaker 3: number one deep ball passer by PFF. The guy can

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Speaker 3: just shuck it down the field. And I think with

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Speaker 3: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jackson Smith and Jig But I

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Speaker 3: think he's gonna have a big sophomore season. I'm going

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Speaker 3: to get some long deep passes. We've had a top

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Speaker 3: eight special teams four straight on this team. We literally

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Speaker 3: hired a Harbad there's another Harbor out there. We got

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Speaker 3: him to run the special teams. I'm just in on Seattle.

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Speaker 3: The NFC is a weaker conference. I've got like Green

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Speaker 3: Bay Chicago fighting for the last spot in the in

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Speaker 3: the division or in the conference. So really, Seattle, I

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Speaker 3: have holding off the number two team from the NFC South,

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Speaker 3: which is a position I'm happy to be in. So

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Speaker 3: with the Rams out for me, Seattle is in plus

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Speaker 3: two fifteen to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: Well said, and I like their tight ends too. No,

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Speaker 4: Farrell Brown was good in New England last year. Offensive

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Speaker 4: line is fine. And do you get a good quarterback

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Speaker 4: playout Gino Smith. He showed signs and he can still

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Speaker 4: play the position at an average to maybe some days

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Speaker 4: above average level. Any given Sunday, Jill Maker miss playoffs,

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Speaker 4: who jumps out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go to the AFC and I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take the Jaguars to make the playoffs at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I love some of the roster moves they made in

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Speaker 2: the off season, getting Eric Armstead on the defensive line,

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Speaker 2: Darnell Savage at the secondary. They even got Ronald Darby

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Speaker 2: who's a little washed, but he should be able to

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Speaker 2: help some of the secondary as well. Now, I know

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Speaker 2: one of the things that people will look at this

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Speaker 2: offense and say they don't have a top end wide receiver.

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Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest Calvin Ridley true through like. I

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Speaker 2: think he's pretty good, but again, I don't think he

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Speaker 2: was worth that money and I think they did better

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Speaker 2: with their resources by being able to draft somebody who

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Speaker 2: are really high on in Brian Thomas and spreading that

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Speaker 2: money out to those defensive players even gave Davis and

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Speaker 2: Devin Duverney. Again not peak quality, but enough where you

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Speaker 2: could stretch it out and have more talent on the

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Speaker 2: field at a time. But again, Trever Lawrence, I think

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Speaker 2: is really where this comes down to. And that ankle

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Speaker 2: injury that he suffered in Week eleven was brutal. The

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Speaker 2: Jags were eight and three coming into that game. He

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Speaker 2: only had seven interceptions. He was completing close to like

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Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of his passes. That would have been

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Speaker 2: a career high, that would have been top three in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. But in the final four games he just

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Speaker 2: completely fell apart the entire Jaguars team.

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Speaker 3: He was awful. He had seven.

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Speaker 2: Interceptions just in those four games. His yards per at

430
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 2: temp dropped EPA for play. They lost four games in

431
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 2: a row, and despite that, they were still in the

432
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 2: mix to make the playoffs in Week eighteen against the Titans,

433
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: but again cough that up as well. And again I know, Brandon,

434
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: in your coaching rankings not as really higher on Doug Peterson.

435
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 2: I like Doug Peterson, but I also agree with you.

436
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 2: I think he is still dining out on the Philly

437
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 2: special five years later. But also their defensive coordinator high

438
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 2: I really enjoy him and Ryan Nielsen, maybe just because

439
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 2: of making the Falcons defense not terrible.

440
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 3: They don't really have a ton of talent.

441
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 2: On that team, and they were above average for most

442
00:20:58,080 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 2: of the years that he was there. Able to make

443
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 2: something out of enough. And there's a lot more talent

444
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball on the Jags

445
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 2: than offensively. And then when I was looking at the

446
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: other markets of like whether or not maybe the Jags

447
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 2: like to win the division. For example, they're round plus

448
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 2: two fifty to win the division at plus one twenty,

449
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 2: I'd rather just take them to make the playoffs given

450
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 2: that price difference. So I like the Jags to make

451
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: the playoffs at plus one twenty.

452
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 4: In the AFC, Trevor Lawrence is one of those few

453
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 4: quarterbacks well I guess technically several quarterbacks who were just

454
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 4: paid and I think we've yet to see even in

455
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 4: that eight and three start, and even being a playoff

456
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 4: team two years ago, has Trevor Lawrence even had his

457
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 4: best year yet, overcoming the Urban Meyer debacle, and as

458
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 4: you said, you know, Peterson at least got through to

459
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 4: him to make a playoff, you know, make a playoff run,

460
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 4: only lost by a touchdown to the Chiefs in that

461
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two playoffs. Trevor Lawrence still hasn't had a

462
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 4: number one overall pick caliber year for as highly touted

463
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 4: as he was coming out of college. I guess what

464
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 4: I'm getting at, so kind of approve it year for

465
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 4: Lawrence with the injury as well. Last year, the Action

466
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 4: Network podcast Everybody Has Brought to You by bet MGM

467
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 4: used the bonus code action when signing up to get

468
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 4: up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if

469
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 4: your first bet does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

470
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 4: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

471
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 4: and Wyoming, terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty

472
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 4: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler okay,

473
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 4: and Brandon's got one more make or miss playoffs give

474
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 4: us the team make or miss.

475
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll go with a miss here. I'm gonna go

476
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 3: for the second straight year. Give me the Bengals plus

477
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 3: two ten to miss the playoffs. Now, look, you can

478
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 3: read right now today as you were listening to this

479
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 3: at Action Network, you can read my Worst of First

480
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: Division column, one of my favorites to do every year.

481
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 3: We'll get back to that in a second. The Bengals

482
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 3: were last last year. I thought they were the obvious

483
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 3: worst to first pick. I expected them to be an

484
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: obvious pick. Actually ended up with them third in the division. Here,

485
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: you heard me make the case for Cleveland. Already. We

486
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 3: know Baltimore is good. I think the Bengals might be

487
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 3: living out that Super Bowl reputation a little bit. Still. Well,

488
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 3: here's the rankings by this team offense and defense the

489
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 3: last three years. Offense eleventh last year, fourth before that

490
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 3: really good, eighteenth before that not that great defense. Lou

491
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 3: On Aarrumo, we love Louon Aroumo twenty third, eleventh, and nineteenth.

492
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 3: The last three years like this, pretty average for the

493
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: most part. I don't think the coaching staff is adding

494
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,679
Speaker 3: much to this team. Zach Taylor have never been a

495
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 3: fan of they lost Callahan and replaced him in the

496
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 3: house when I had a chance to bring a new

497
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: voice in. The old line is below average and kind

498
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: of slowly getting worse. Howly's a bad team. I have

499
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: them at nine point seven wins. I have them eight seeds,

500
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 3: so one spot out of the playoffs. But the AFC

501
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 3: is loaded. There's a lot of teams to make the

502
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 3: playoffs in the AFC, and early on the Bengals play

503
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 3: the Chiefs in Week two at Burrowhead. We know Kansas

504
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: City will be ready for that one, right They play

505
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 3: a Ravens in week five. So I like with these

506
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 3: make miss playoffs, you can kind of like get both

507
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: sides of the equation and hedge at different times if

508
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 3: you want. If you're not feeling this one, even if

509
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: the Bengals lose a couple of those games early and

510
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: you're like, you know what, I kind of like them,

511
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 3: you could probably at that point get a plus on

512
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 3: the other side and then just be done and you've

513
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: made a little bit of profit and you're done for

514
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: the season. So it's not a team I hate by

515
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: any stretch. I think they'll be in the mix this year. Obviously,

516
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 3: Burrow was injured last year, so getting him back is huge,

517
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 3: but I just think it's a bad number plus two

518
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 3: ten and make him more like fifty to fifty.

519
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 4: Historically, since they drafted Burrow, they have started slow, healthy

520
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 4: or not the first couple weeks. That is right, Okay,

521
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 4: very good, and it aligns with how good the conference is,

522
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 4: at least as far as quarterback play, that's for sure. Okay,

523
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 4: let's move on to our next one. Division long shot

524
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 4: also want to I want to make mention you squeezed

525
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 4: in burrowhead and for about a half second, I thought

526
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 4: you misspoke, and I'm like, oh, right, that that thing.

527
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 4: I totally forgot about that until you mentioned it. Division

528
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 4: long Shots. Last year, Brandon on this pod nailed the

529
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 4: Texans at eleven to one, worse to first Texans playoffs.

530
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 4: Mister will Anderson still holds a very special place in

531
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 4: our hearts. At twenty five to one. That was one

532
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: of our best bets pods late in the year. We

533
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 4: got the twenty five to one. You played them earlier

534
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 4: in the year, of course, but we've got that better price.

535
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 4: I'm kind of a big deal. Texans Island was a

536
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 4: thing last year and the Jaguars in twenty twenty two,

537
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 4: which we just discussed with Jill when he mentioned the

538
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 4: Jags for this season to make the playoffs. With all

539
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 4: that in mind, this is where you can get really creative,

540
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 4: right division long shots Brandon where we had and I'll

541
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 4: add I'll say it now, if Brandon is going to

542
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 4: use a team Twitter hashtag in his show notes that,

543
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 4: I know he's really excited, so give it to us.

544
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 3: Look, Brandon, it's time to go island hunting, right, there's

545
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 3: a lot of pressure. Right, We've we've found Texans Island

546
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 3: and Seahawks Island and Jaguars Island the last three years,

547
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 3: what's the island? People have been asking me for like

548
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 3: six months, what's the island we're fining. I've got a

549
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: few other islands I visited I like put down maybe

550
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 3: not this quite this one, well, well, mention a couple

551
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 3: of others. Here's the thing. When you're picking an island,

552
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: you gotta pay attention to which archipelago you're at. You

553
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 3: gotta pay attention to the surroundings. How on an island

554
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 3: in a surroundings I can win. That's why I like

555
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 3: Houston and Jacksville. The last couple of years because that

556
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: division was terrible. So first things first, Well, okay, I got,

557
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 3: I got the shirt on. This is closely I get.

558
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 3: This is just like a bland blue color. As close

559
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 3: as I get. Keep pounding baby Panthers Island thirteen to one,

560
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 3: worst to first division winner. Okay, I want this division.

561
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 3: I want to pick on all the teams in this

562
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 3: division to suck. We did that all last year was great.

563
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 3: The ANCTY South is terrible. The Saints are bottom three

564
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: head coach and offensive line. The Bucks are blah, They're fading.

565
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: We know that the Falcons are the team that are

566
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 3: like the by default, but I think this is like

567
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: a five hundred ish team. I think they're a pretty

568
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: average offense, a pretty average at best defense. Coaching staff

569
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 3: is unproven to me. With the Panthers, this reeks of

570
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 3: post Urban Meyer year two Trevor Lawrence. Last year's coaching

571
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 3: on this team was abysmal. We cleaned staff, we got

572
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 3: rid of everything, we started over. We also had This

573
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 3: was the third worst team by injuries games lost, per

574
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 3: Aaron Schottz at FTN. Now we got Dave Canalis, the

575
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: adult in the room. He's the Doug Peterson here. Dave Canalis,

576
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: who already in the last couple of years worked with

577
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield, helped him redeem his career, worked with Gino Smith,

578
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 3: helped him redeem his career. Next up, Bryce Young. That's

579
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 3: what we got to do here. Did not think I'd

580
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: be betting on Bryce Young. But again we're looking for

581
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: paths here. The offense. The line is not good yet,

582
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 3: but their left tackle, center, right tackles started every game

583
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 3: last season. The guards, they started ten guards last season

584
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: between two positions. They went out and they signed two

585
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: good guards. That's gonna help. Receivers terrible last season, just

586
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 3: Adam Thielen catching like twenty five balls a game. They

587
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 3: signed Deontay Johnson, a real route runner. They drafted Xavier Legett.

588
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: Is how I'm hearing that we're pronouncing this name now.

589
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 3: They drafted Jonathan Brooks, the best running back in the draft.

590
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 3: He's not ready yet, but the running game was pretty good.

591
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 3: This team last year to down the stretch to Bahabur

592
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 3: was turn it out and then Bryce Young. Bryce Young

593
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 3: was awful, He was terrible. I don't have any secret

594
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 3: numbers I found. I don't have any way to redeem that.

595
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 3: The way to redeem that is Dave Kanalis and not

596
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: last year's coaching staff. Even if Bryce Young can just

597
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 3: be like twenty fourth best quarterback or twentieth best quarterback,

598
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 3: this guy was number one pick a year ago. Right,

599
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 3: Let's not give up after one year. Just get some competence.

600
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 3: Now we're six or seven wins. I think nine wins

601
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 3: gets the division. Here's the first games for ten games

602
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: for the Panthers. This is the actual first ten games.

603
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: I think they could win every one of these games.

604
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: Not going to win all of them. I think they

605
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 3: could win any of these games. Saints, Chargers, Raiders, Bengals, Bears, Falcons, Commanders, Broncos, Saints, Giants.

606
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 3: These are not good teams. There's no good teams in

607
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 3: the division. These are not great opponents. It gets tougher

608
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 3: later in the year they played the Chiefs, play the

609
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: rest of the NFC East. But I think the Panthers

610
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 3: can win some games. I love the over five and

611
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: a half. It's my favorite win total on the board

612
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: in this division. I have the Panthers projected at eight

613
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: point three wins. Guys, I have Atlanta eight point five

614
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: at the Saints eight point zero of the Bucks last

615
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: in division. So I make the Panthers about plus two

616
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: point fifty. Actually we're getting plus thirteen hundred year. Here's

617
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: one final stat for you. On quarterbacks that get drafted

618
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 3: number one, they don't do well the first year. That

619
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: was the reason I faded the Panthers. Last year, I

620
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: wanted Panthers last year. I tucked myself out of the stock.

621
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 3: Rookie to sophomore leaps. Let me give you some numbers.

622
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: Jamis Winston number one, pick six games he won as

623
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 3: a freshman as a rookie nine his next year. Jared

624
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: Goff went from zero wins to eleven, Caller Murray three

625
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: to seven, Joe Burrow two to ten, CYVERL. Lawrence three

626
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: to nine wins. These guys have averaged a leap of

627
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 3: five and a half wins right strong one two. So

628
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: now we're at seven and a half. We only probably

629
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: need like one more win. We might win this division.

630
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 3: Panthers Island, Baby, I can't believe we got here. We're

631
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: in keep pounding. Let's go thirteen to one.

632
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: Number one. I knew you'd be excited. Two. I'm getting

633
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 4: married very soon. Do you want do you want to

634
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 4: book my honeymoon? Island? Man, because God.

635
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: I'm the guys, I'm trying.

636
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 4: To all right, fantastic, Okay, Jill go on division long shot.

637
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: Okay, so it's not gonna be as cool or shiny

638
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: as what Brandon just presented, but it is piggybacking a

639
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: little bit off of his best record long shot, and

640
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 2: that's the Browns to win the AFC North around plus

641
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: five point fifty. It's really difficult for me to overlook

642
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 2: a divisional odds winner when you have inarguable a top

643
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 2: three defense returning pretty much nearly all of their starters. Again,

644
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 2: Jim Schwartz is coming back. I think that's huge. They

645
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: added Devin Bush to their linebackers. This is really a

646
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: turn key team. There's not really a lot to improve

647
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: except for quarterback. They've got a top five offensive line,

648
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: they've got a great coaching staff, and Kevin Stefanski just

649
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: won his second Coach of the Year. Nick Chubb is

650
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 2: going to start on the pup list. But if you

651
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 2: watch his off season training videos, he looks like he's

652
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 2: training to be like and like mister like the world,

653
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: Like with how much weight he's lifting, like, imagine he's

654
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,479
Speaker 2: going to come out Week five and be just as

655
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 2: strong or not much adjustment time when he eventually gets back.

656
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: But then also looking at the rest of the teams

657
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: in the division, like Baltimore has nearly the same strength

658
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: of schedule as the Browns, and they regressed with their

659
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: roster the Bengals. Brandon kind of touched on this a

660
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: second ago, but I would bet on them maybe a

661
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: little bit later in the season because both years where

662
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 2: Cincinnati did have right regular season success, it was actually

663
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: more in the latter half of the season. They always

664
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 2: really kind of stumbled out of the gate and then

665
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: they would just get hot from Week nine onward. And

666
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: again the Steelers, if you have two quarterbacks, you have

667
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: no quarterbacks, so they don't have a quarterback and they

668
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: have less talent on both sides of the ball. So again,

669
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: the only reason why we would even consider that a

670
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: long shot at five hundred or fifty to one or

671
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,479
Speaker 2: even plus five fifty for them to win the AFC

672
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: North is because a Deshaun Watson. And again I don't

673
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: think it's that much of a drop off from Jameis

674
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 2: Winston to Sean Watson based on what we've seen. So yeah,

675
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: I think right now the Browns are the best bet

676
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 2: to make for a division, especially at plus five to fifty.

677
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 4: Brandon quick follow up on the Browns for a different market,

678
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 4: obviously outside of what you mentioned earlier.

679
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, this is a best bet for me too,

680
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 3: So I just want to make sure to chime in here,

681
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: like this is equally a best bet to me. It's

682
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 3: not a worse the first, so it's not an island

683
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 3: for me. But I love Browns plus five to fifty.

684
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 3: I make this a little bit under plus two hundred

685
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: and about thirty five percent likely Pittsburgh I have kind

686
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:46,959
Speaker 3: of out of the picture. And then I have them

687
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: at ten and a half wins versus ten point seven Baltimore.

688
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 3: And since he just under ten, this also is the

689
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: one you got a bet. Now, you play the Cowboys

690
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 3: in week one as Cleveland, that's a toss up. But

691
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 3: if you get that one Jacksonville, then the Giants, Raiders

692
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 3: and Commanders. So if you get the win in week one,

693
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 3: you suddenly might be sitting at five to zero. And

694
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 3: if you give the quarterback a chance to get some momentum,

695
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: figure some things out, find a little offense, you never

696
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 3: know how things go after that. Like, momentum is a

697
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 3: real thing week to week in sports. So yeah, I

698
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 3: love the Browns. Just two other quick division long shotzs

699
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 3: to mention out to need to make the case here,

700
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 3: Rams last in the division plus seven hundred. Again, I've

701
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 3: talked a lot about this division, guys. I wanted Cardinals Island.

702
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 3: I wanted it so bad. I'm in on Kyler Murray.

703
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: I love Drew Petsing, the offensive coordinator. I have them

704
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: dead last. On defense. I think the Cardinals and the

705
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 3: Rams are kind of the same thing. I think it's

706
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: a pretty good offense and a terrible defense. Have the

707
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 3: Cardinals slightly ahead because of strength of schedule, So I

708
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 3: think Ram's last division is just ahead to head Rams

709
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 3: versus Cardinals. I think it's close, but seven to one.

710
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 3: I'll take that. Then on the other side, I think

711
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 3: the Niners are really good. I can't quite get there

712
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 3: on Seahawks division, but if I'm gonna get there, give

713
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 3: me the one two exact outcome Seattle first, Niners second,

714
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 3: because I've got a gap than before the other teams.

715
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 3: That's twelve to one odds. So get a fancy with

716
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 3: the division odds here. Just Seahawk's division is an eight

717
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,760
Speaker 3: to one if you prefer that, but I like this divisional.

718
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: I think this is the division I'm most excited about

719
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 3: this year, So I want to get creative with some

720
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: ways to bet it.

721
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 4: Okay, NFL Week one is next week, folks, So if

722
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,840
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723
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725
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726
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731
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 4: or check out the link in the episode description. Quick

732
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733
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734
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741
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746
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 4: Got a couple more to go, a couple more long

747
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 4: shot categories to go. Let's discuss team points scored, so

748
00:35:55,800 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 4: to map that out, most points scored, least points scored

749
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 4: for the entire season. We had Evan Abrams, our director

750
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 4: of research on this very podcast last year, and he

751
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 4: nailed least points scored New England Patriots at thirty to one.

752
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 4: I'm kind of a big deal. Ended up being a

753
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 4: split in the end of I forget who they tied with.

754
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 4: Someone is probably Carolina, I would the three way tie.

755
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 4: Actually somehow okay, Carolina, Well, anyway, Patriots were involved at

756
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 4: thirty to one and somehow to get a tie. Is

757
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: actually pretty amazing that I ended up playing out that way. Okay,

758
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 4: So with that in mind, Brandon, which direction are you

759
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 4: heading in and with which team?

760
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 3: Now i'n go with point score. I'll give you two.

761
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: I'll give you most and the least. Give me the

762
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 3: Dolphins most points scored sixty in the one. I think

763
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 3: it's a ludicrous number. The Dolphins, the offense that we

764
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 3: all know. Is amazing that the offense that dropped seventy

765
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 3: on Denver last year, they finished up four to ninety six.

766
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: They were thirteen behind Dallas for winning this category a

767
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 3: year agoing don't forget it. Scored nineteen and fourteen the

768
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 3: last two games, just like don't stink the last two weeks,

769
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 3: and the Dolphins would be the champion in this category.

770
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: They had last year eight games of thirty or more points.

771
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 3: They had three games of forty two or more points.

772
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: This is my number one offense. I don't need to

773
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: make the case. Tyreek Wattle a chan moster. You can

774
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 3: score any play here and you want them now because

775
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 3: they a will start out the year hot. Well see

776
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 3: if it holds up. But last year through six games,

777
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 3: they averaged over thirty seven points a game. Through twelve games,

778
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 3: they're at thirty two points a game. Even if it

779
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 3: doesn't hold up late, you can hedge. You can figure

780
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 3: out ways around us later with the ticket that you

781
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 3: want leading. I don't know why in the world this

782
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 3: will be sixteen to one. I think it's a terrible number.

783
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 3: And then on the other end of the spectrum, least

784
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 3: points scored, Commanders thirty to one. The Commanders on my

785
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 3: dead last offense. They're number thirty two. They've been a

786
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 3: bottom seven DEVA offense in five to the last six years.

787
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 3: They've been bottom nine points scored six straight seasons. This

788
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 3: is not a team that scores. They're my worst offensive line.

789
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 3: They gave up a ton of sacks. They have no continuity,

790
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,280
Speaker 3: they have bottom five have weapons they traded away. Johan Dotson,

791
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 3: hackeler Ertz are washed. And then of course our loansome

792
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 3: loser Cliff Kingsbury is back to leave the offense. Have

793
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: you heard about the Lords and Loser? He's a loisa,

794
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 3: but he still keeps up trying. You know, I'm betting

795
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 3: against Cliff Kingsbury. This dude couldn't win football games with

796
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams. I don't

797
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 3: know if Jane Daniel is bad. You just gotta play

798
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 3: him like they could just not be good all year

799
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,280
Speaker 3: thirty to one Commanders for least points scored.

800
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 4: Okay, welcome back, Cliff, What a welcoming gift. Brandon Anderson's

801
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 4: gonna bet against you, Chill Galot, He's got two for us.

802
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: What do you have?

803
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: I just love that Cliff keeps catching shrapnel on this part.

804
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 3: Be an ongoing theme, this thing, Cliff Kingsbury.

805
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 2: All right, So I'm gonna do least points allout, and

806
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take two teams. One is more closer to

807
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 2: a favorite. I'm gonna take a little bit of a

808
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 2: long shot as well. So the one that's closer to

809
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: a favorite, I'm gonna take the Jets at plus six

810
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 2: to fifty for least points allowed. And I think part

811
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 2: of it, and a really huge part of it, is

812
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: competent quarterback play will actually give this defense a little

813
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 2: bit of a rest, and the fact that their offense

814
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 2: was on the field for way less snaps than most teams.

815
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 2: They had the third worst third down percentage in over

816
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: twenty years for an offense, it was twenty five percent

817
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: conversion rate. The next best team was the Patriots five

818
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 2: percent better. So it's just historically bad. You actually have

819
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 2: an average quarterback or even now considered an elite Hall

820
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Maybe now this defense

821
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: won't have to play as much and could actually shut

822
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 2: some teams down. And it was just nearly impossible to

823
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 2: feeld a good defense because they're constantly being run the

824
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: ball run off. Basically, they have a top five pass

825
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: defense for DVAWA last year, second rate of pass defense. Rather,

826
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 2: they're nearly impossible to throw on, but their run defense

827
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 2: just get gashed because they never have to. Teams would

828
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 2: never have to throw the ball on them essentially the

829
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 2: entire year. And they went and got Javon Kinloff from

830
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. Maybe they resolved that stuff with

831
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 2: Hasan Redick. I'm not sure, but I don't even think

832
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,399
Speaker 2: they'll need him. I mean, they signed safety Chuck Clark

833
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: from the Ravens too. I think that'll help. If they

834
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: could just actually feeld a competent or even complimentary offense

835
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 2: like this defense will finally be recognized, in my opinion

836
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 2: as the best in the NFL. Now the long shot

837
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 2: picked though, I'm going to take the Chicago Bears at

838
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 2: twenty eight to one.

839
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 3: Again.

840
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 2: First look, the Jets were the first team that I saw.

841
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: But here's a team that was the top team and

842
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: stopping the run last year. They were first in opponent

843
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: yards per carry, they allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns.

844
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 2: And then they've added defensive coordinator Eric Washington over from

845
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills. He was the defensive line coach assistant

846
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: coach for the Bills over the last four years. He

847
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 2: oversaw a defense that was first, second, and fourth in

848
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: opponent points per game over the last three seasons. Again,

849
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 2: a lot of great pieces on defense as well, and

850
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 2: not that it's all comes down to one player, but

851
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: montes Wet was pretty good for them last year and

852
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: that effect was real because after he got traded from Washington,

853
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 2: the Bears only allowed eighteen points per game in their

854
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 2: final nine games, and that would have finished top three

855
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: if that was over a full season. I think there's

856
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: a lot of upside for this defense to carry the

857
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 2: load on this team. So I think got twenty eight

858
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 2: to one. That's a team that I would sprinkle on

859
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: for the fewest points allowed in the twenty twenty four season.

860
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 4: I think it's an next one point something I wouldn't

861
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 4: even have thought of had you not mentioned it. Having

862
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:25,399
Speaker 4: on the other side of the ball, competent quarterback play,

863
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: and of course you have to have the personnel that

864
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 4: are good on defense. I think the Jets do have. Well,

865
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 4: we'll see if Hassan Redick place, but they have enough

866
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 4: competent pieces on the defensive end. But good stuff. That's

867
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 4: a fun one. That's a fun segment. Team's team points

868
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 4: scored a couple of different directions, their most points scored,

869
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 4: at least points scored, and then least points allowed. Is

870
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 4: Jill mapped out with his two Okay, this one's fun.

871
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 4: Last winless team, Brandon.

872
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 3: Brandon, I hate to do it to you. I gotta

873
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 3: break your heart. I'm going chalk on this one. It's

874
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 3: your new England Patriots five to one plus five hundred.

875
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: It's my chockiest picker Eric podcast today. Look, only there's

876
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 3: ever been a bigger brain drain in NFL history than

877
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick being gone from this team. He was not

878
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 3: just the head coach. He had his hands on the

879
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 3: offensive line. Now terrible in special teams now terrible on defense,

880
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: I'm not so sure. Like I listen to a lot

881
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: of these like top ten defense rankings, and there's a

882
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 3: lot of Patriots in there. I don't know. Man Belichick

883
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: mattered a lot to this defense. Guys like Bentley and Tavai,

884
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 3: the linebackers, guys like Dugger and Mapu at safety. The

885
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 3: whole thing with them is they came cheaper in the

886
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 3: draft because they were quote weapons, and Belichick weaponized them

887
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 3: and figured out how to make them work. Are we

888
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 3: positive Drad Mayo is going to be the same thing

889
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 3: like he's been in the system. Like I know, we

890
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 3: like him, but we don't know a lot about Mayo

891
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: right now. I know a lot about Bill Belichick. He's

892
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 3: really good at defense. So I actually have this as

893
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: a bottom ten defense. You lost Christian Barmore, I think

894
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 3: really important on the defensive line. We don't know how

895
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 3: long he traded away. Matthew Judon probably their best pass rusher.

896
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: The offense we know is very good. Alex van Pelt

897
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: a new play caller. He's a low ceiling guy. Jacobe

898
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 3: Brissett is the definition of low ceiling. They can't even

899
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 3: play Drake may because the line is so bad that

900
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,919
Speaker 3: they're worried about protecting him. Special teams has gone bad.

901
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 3: It's just a bad team. The division is tough. I

902
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: have all three other teams in the division winning double

903
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 3: digits and pushing for the playoffs. And then here's the

904
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 3: schedule starting out. This is why this is the last

905
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 3: winless team. Cincinnati, Seattle, the Jets, San Francisco, Miami, Houston,

906
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 3: Jacksonville the Jets. Again, these are all teams that think

907
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: that they're pushing for the playoffs. They're oh to eight.

908
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 3: After that at Tennessee, that might be one of their

909
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 3: best chances to win. And I looked at Tennessee. Here

910
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 3: they're eight to one. But if I'm gonna pick a

911
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 3: team at like eight to one, or I don't mind

912
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,439
Speaker 3: Joe's pick at plus nine point fifty, if I'm going

913
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 3: that short anyway for me, if I'm not picking the

914
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 3: long shot, I'm just gonna pick the team I think

915
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 3: is like the clear favorite here. I also, by the way,

916
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 3: like Patriots all win six in the division plus four hundred.

917
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 3: I just I go through and I project every single

918
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 3: team on the schedule is a win, a loss, a

919
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 3: coin flip, or a definite lock win or lock loss.

920
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 3: The Patriots are the only team that I've ever done

921
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 3: in the history of doing that that I don't even

922
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 3: have a fifty to fifty game for There are no

923
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 3: coin flips. They just lose or definitely lose all the games.

924
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 3: There's not even a coin flip on the map for me.

925
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: So I think this is the clear worst team in

926
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: the NFL. I will take them at plus five hundred

927
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 3: for a last winless team.

928
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 4: You encapsulated the current experience very well. Christian Gonzales their

929
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 4: first round corner who got hurt last year. He knocked

930
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 4: great reports out of camp and preseason games, kind of

931
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 4: getting burned Belichick pick Belichick's last pick in the first round.

932
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 4: As we know you mentioned the bar Moore thing. What else? Oh,

933
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 4: I got one more note for you. It's just a

934
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 4: joke that I think you guys should enjoy. The Boston

935
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 4: sports talk radio folk have told folks that, yeah, Sunday,

936
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,399
Speaker 4: September twenty ninth here in the New England area, that's

937
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 4: the day when the Patriots go to San Francisco at

938
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 4: four o'clock, get your get your apple picking in that

939
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 4: that's your apple picking day. Chut the TV off. Don't

940
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 4: even bother with San Francisco. Week four, get the apple

941
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 4: picking in even though you dried it with your significant other.

942
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 4: That's the weekend. That's the day. Turn the TV off

943
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 4: and then catch the you know, watch the one o'clocks

944
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 4: if you want to watch, and then go out and

945
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 4: apple pick during the Niners Patriots bloodbath. And I'll let

946
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 4: you determine who I'm talking about is going to have

947
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 4: the blood bath day. But very well done, Brandon. I'm

948
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 4: impressed with your breakdown of the Patriots. Okay, Jill, last

949
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 4: winless team, You've got one for us.

950
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 2: Right, And the only reason why I didn't look at

951
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: the Patriots is I was looking for a team that

952
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 2: had just a little bit better odds, and I think

953
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: this is actually baked into the odds. Why we're getting

954
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 2: this is the Minnesota Vikings at plus nine point fifty,

955
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,280
Speaker 2: so I kind of went over this already.

956
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 3: With worst record.

957
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: This is really a Week one bet because if they

958
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 2: lose to the Giants in the opening game. We talked

959
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 2: about this seven be tough games in a row, and

960
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 2: part of it, too, is just getting ahead of it, right.

961
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 2: If they lose in Week one, these odds are going

962
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 2: to plumme it down closer to the same price of

963
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 2: New England, which is the favorite in this market. So

964
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 2: I think part of the strategy though, is if you

965
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 2: take them for worst record, you also take them for

966
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: last winless team. That way, if they do win in

967
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 2: Week one, you still have a little bit of a

968
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 2: safety net.

969
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 4: Easy enough. Again, go back earlier in the pod discussing

970
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 4: the uh the worst record, very similar handicap. Good notes

971
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: on the schedule. All right, one, Brandon's going to cover

972
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 4: this one last unbeaten slash undefeated team.

973
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to stay in the division with the Patriots.

974
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: I'm going to go to the New York Jets seventeen

975
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 3: to one last on beating This is a team that

976
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 3: I've been talking about on this podcast since March. This

977
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,240
Speaker 3: is a team to me, you want the long tail outcomes.

978
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 3: I don't want meeting outcomes of the Jets. If I'm

979
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 3: going to be in the Jets, I'm going to be

980
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 3: in on all the question marks I'm accepting, so I

981
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 3: at least may as well accept them to the degree

982
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 3: that they should. In my matrix, again, I mentioned like

983
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 3: I rank all the quarterback, offensive lines, everything The Jets

984
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 3: are my number one team. Guys, They on paper are

985
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: my number one team. And I know football is not

986
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 3: played on paper, but they just edge out the Chiefs

987
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 3: and the Niners, just only on roster, not including coaching.

988
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 3: We'll get to that in a second. But we know

989
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,919
Speaker 3: the defense is awesome. They've been great for years, even

990
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 3: with no offense. Jill just talked about that special teams

991
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 3: was top five last year, and then to the offense. Look,

992
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 3: they finished dead last offensively last year. There is no

993
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 3: way to quantify the leap you're gonna take on offense.

994
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 3: Going from a bottom seven offensive line to what I

995
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:37,399
Speaker 3: have is a top seven to zero line this year.

996
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 3: That is a massive swing. You bring in Tyron Smith,

997
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 3: who for the twelve games he'll play, is awesome. You

998
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 3: get back Elijah your attucker, You've remade the line you

999
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 3: had Mike Williams, and of course, what bigger swing can

1000
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 3: you possibly have then Zach Wilson and all the losers

1001
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 3: that played quarterback for this team last year to hopefully

1002
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 3: a healthy Aaron Rodgers from number thirty two quarterback to

1003
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 3: a guy that I have fourth in my quarterback ringings.

1004
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 3: Now you can quibble with that, if you want. But

1005
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers in healthy seasons for his career, has been

1006
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 3: a top eleven offense every single season and top eight

1007
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 3: ten out of thirteen seasons. So this, to me is

1008
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: a team that offensively has a number one offense ceiling.

1009
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 3: If Rodgers is healthy, if this line is healthy, it's

1010
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 3: a lot of efs. But again, we're going last un beaten.

1011
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: If you want to bet on this team, maybe you

1012
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: don't want them the whole season, that's all right. How

1013
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 3: about half the season? Can we get there for last unbeaten? Again,

1014
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 3: like Joe mentioned with the Vikings pick, you're paying a

1015
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 3: price here on week one, Monday night in San Francisco,

1016
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 3: Jets are underdogs. We might just lose right away. We're out.

1017
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 3: But we know about Aaron Rodgers is going to San Francisco, right, guys,

1018
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 3: we know that. And if you get out of that

1019
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:53,280
Speaker 3: one Titans, Patriots, Broncos, Vikings, Hey, feeling pretty good now,

1020
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 3: then you got a Buffalo game Monday night in New York.

1021
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: Then you get Pittsburgh, New England. There's a path eight.

1022
00:48:59,239 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: No.

1023
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 3: If this is going well, it could go very well.

1024
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 3: This is not the last time you can hear from me.

1025
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: On the Jets. This is a team that you need

1026
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 3: to find ways to invest in the long tail, and

1027
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 3: I think last unbeaten team seventeen oh one is a

1028
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 3: good way to do it.

1029
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 4: But but do we trust the coaches? Do we trust

1030
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 4: the coaches? Which leads us to first coach fired? Joe

1031
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 4: Glant doesn't trust the coaching staff in New York.

1032
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:25,800
Speaker 3: No, not at all.

1033
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 2: And I think the real thing here when you look

1034
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: at the first coach fired market, I think we should

1035
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 2: just put this out there right now that Dennis Allen

1036
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:36,439
Speaker 2: is the favorite to be the first coach fired, much

1037
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 2: like Josh McDaniels last year. Josh McDaniels is actually the favorite,

1038
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 2: and he was the first coach fired. I don't think

1039
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 2: that necessarily is indicative. And it's a huge odds swing

1040
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,360
Speaker 2: from Dennis Allen, who's around plus two seventy five to

1041
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 2: the next one, which is of course Mike McCarthy around

1042
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: six to one, who is always in the top five

1043
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 2: in this category. But out of every NFL coach in

1044
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 2: the NFL right now, the most pressure to win now

1045
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 2: that's where I'm looking at, is Robert Sali because they

1046
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: went back to back years of seven to ten. Part

1047
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:06,919
Speaker 2: of the reason why I want to take solid here

1048
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 2: is that opening month on paper fairly easy schedule three

1049
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,919
Speaker 2: games with the Patriots, Broncos, and Titans. All these teams

1050
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 2: are expected to win less than seven games. That's more

1051
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 2: pressure for the Jets to win. And if the games

1052
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 2: that the Jets are expected to win, and if they

1053
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: stumble early, maybe their defense gets carved up and they lose.

1054
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 2: That New York media they already are have it out

1055
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: for him. They're going to chew his ass up if

1056
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 2: they lose to one of those teams, and if the

1057
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: defense falters, it comes up short, all the blame is

1058
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 2: going to fall on him, being a defensive guy. Jets ownership,

1059
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 2: they know their time is limited with Aaron Rodgers. You

1060
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 2: look at the rest of the division. Pats aren't good anymore,

1061
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: the Bills rosters regress. The Jets need to win now,

1062
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 2: and if they stumble out of the gate, I could

1063
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 2: see them pulling the shoot on this and just saying, Nope,

1064
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 2: get out of here. Hackett can take over.

1065
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 4: No, I was just gonna go there empower Aaron Rodgers, Binkie,

1066
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:04,479
Speaker 4: who is Nathaniel Hackett. Most of these guys and Jill

1067
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 4: gave a couple. Allen of course underperformed Todd Bowles track record,

1068
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,399
Speaker 4: Robert Salad track record, Brian day Ball as your side

1069
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 4: of the ball figured out day Ball as we learned

1070
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 4: in that Giants offseason hard knocks. I think he wants

1071
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 4: a quarterback, but he really liked Neighbors and those interviews

1072
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 4: and some of the other receivers, Siriani. There appears to

1073
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 4: be turbulence with Sirianni and Jalen Hurts based on some

1074
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 4: of the reporting and so on and so forth. Stefanski's

1075
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 4: been now with the Browns, and you guys have been

1076
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,359
Speaker 4: advocating for the Browns, but I think that's a raw

1077
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 4: deal for Stefanski. But he's been there a bit. Antonio

1078
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 4: Pierce first first year without the interim tag, so Sean

1079
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 4: McDermott caught a lot of crap at the end of

1080
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 4: last year. Then they figured it out and they changed

1081
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 4: the offensive coordinator and they squeezed in there. So I'm

1082
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 4: not going to go through every name, but I want

1083
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 4: to now send it over to Brandon. First coach fired

1084
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 4: someone other than it's obviously not Robert. Solid for Brandon,

1085
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 4: and he thinks the Chests loves the chests. But who

1086
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 4: do you got, Brandon?

1087
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I don't hate the Robert Soli pick.

1088
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 3: You want long tails, that's a long tail. You just

1089
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 3: pick on the other tail. I don't mind that one.

1090
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 3: You could probably conceivably bet both ends. If it goes sour,

1091
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 3: go very sour. Two. I'm gonna go with the guy

1092
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 3: that I think fits a lot of what you just

1093
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 3: talked about, Brandon. But I'm taking a long shot here,

1094
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 3: my longest shot down the board. Here, give me a

1095
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,320
Speaker 3: different first year coach. Give me dan Quinn one hundred

1096
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 3: to one. First coach fired. Washington didn't want Dan Quinn

1097
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 3: to start with. They wanted Ben Johnson. That sent the

1098
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 3: plane for Ben Johnson and had to get turned down

1099
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 3: like mid flight. Robert at Dan Quinn, Robert Quinn, all

1100
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: the Quinns. I don't want any of the Quinns. What's

1101
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 3: he do he brings in Brian Johnson, failed Eagles coordinator

1102
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 3: Anthony Lynn, couldn't do anything anywhere. He's gone, Darryl tap

1103
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,839
Speaker 3: Ken Norton, the Greeks of Hey. I know a guy.

1104
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 3: It's the Panthers all star staff from last year. And

1105
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 3: don't forget you bring in Cliff Kingsbury to run the

1106
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 3: offense bubble screens for a day. It's like dan Quinn

1107
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 3: is not the franchise. Jane Daniels are the franchise. If

1108
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 3: this starts out poorly, Josh Harris, do you think he

1109
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 3: cares about thirty million guaranteed to Quinn? This six billion

1110
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 3: dollar dude. He is gonna hit the EJEC button and

1111
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 3: get Jane Daniels the right guy. And if it looks

1112
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: like this is not the right guy quickly, I would

1113
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 3: not be surprised if he's just like, all right, get

1114
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,879
Speaker 3: this staff out here, let's do something different, or work

1115
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:24,399
Speaker 3: with me here.

1116
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 4: What if they are scoring points and Cliff Kingsbury is

1117
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 4: actually doing well, but dan Quinn screws up his side

1118
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 4: of the ball and they empower Kingsbury.

1119
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 3: So again, I know you hate him, and we just

1120
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,959
Speaker 3: want multiple ways to win one hundred to one. Let's

1121
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 3: go Washington commanders. We got multiple Washington fades this this episode.

1122
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 4: There is a path though, for Kingsbury to be a

1123
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 4: hero in this. I just want to throw that out

1124
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 4: there if it works, and he whispers to a little to.

1125
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels, Listen, we don't have a drop for Kingsbury

1126
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 3: being a hero. You might be the drop for Kingsbury

1127
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,799
Speaker 3: being a hero on now, but it's an election year.

1128
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 3: I'll fade Washington all day long on election year. Just

1129
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 3: give me a ways to do that.

1130
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 4: Cliff Kingsbury last one. Then we'll do best bets. Will

1131
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 4: recap some of the picks these guys gave out the

1132
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 4: last hour. So player long shots, Joe Galot, you can

1133
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 4: go first.

1134
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 2: Okay, So I bet this last year. I feel like

1135
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 2: I got kind of hosed on it. I'm going right

1136
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,959
Speaker 2: back to it. And it is Josh Allen to throw

1137
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 2: the most interceptions At ten to one. He is right

1138
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 2: now a co favorite with Caleb Williams and Bo Nix.

1139
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 2: He's also the second favorite to win MVP, which is

1140
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 2: just hilarious.

1141
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 3: But he has thrown the.

1142
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 2: Most interceptions total over the last three seasons. He's had

1143
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 2: the second and most interceptions in each of the last

1144
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 2: three seasons, where he finished with the second most interceptions

1145
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 2: seventy eight picks. In his ninety four career games. He

1146
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: has double digit interceptions in five of his six seasons

1147
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and eight of his eighteen interceptions last

1148
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 2: year were just against divisional opponents. According to Sean Kerner,

1149
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 2: second hardest strength of schedule. They've got a weaker wide

1150
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 2: receiver room and weaker skill positions to throw to. They

1151
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 2: already got injuries to Curtis Samuel and Marcus Feldis scaling

1152
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 2: Keon Coleman's.

1153
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:13,240
Speaker 3: Still a rookie.

1154
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 2: Allen is also one of those quarterbacks, only there's only

1155
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 2: a handful of them that has a long leash when

1156
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 2: it comes to interceptions and turnovers. He's probably one of

1157
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 2: the few quarterbacks who could throw three interceptions in a

1158
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 2: game and still not be benched. And for a little

1159
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 2: week one tidbit he starts to season versus the Arizona Cardinals. Well,

1160
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 2: in the last sixteen games versus NFC opponents, he's thrown

1161
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,720
Speaker 2: an interception of fourteen of them twenty one total interceptions

1162
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 2: in sixteen games versus against the NFC. So again, when

1163
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 2: you're facing an opponent in the opposite conference and right

1164
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 2: off the week, like he finished as the second most

1165
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 2: profitable quarterback for game to game interception props last year,

1166
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 2: you would have bet one unit on every game he played.

1167
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 2: You would have made seven point four units in profit

1168
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 2: for Josh Allen. So I think right now, I'm just

1169
00:55:57,560 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 2: doubling down on that. I would not be shocked if

1170
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 2: it's a minus one thirty in Week one against the Cardinals.

1171
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 2: But I'm going to take the season long at ten

1172
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,720
Speaker 2: to one for Josh Allen to lead the league in interceptions.

1173
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 4: And the overall in the bigger picture view. With the

1174
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 4: Bills moving on from Diggs, the reporting out of their

1175
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 4: camp is they are trying to make it so Allen

1176
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 4: does not run as much and have a true running game.

1177
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 4: But with that said, maybe he'll be throwing the ball

1178
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 4: more if, of course, if Cook establishes but Alan running

1179
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 4: more is what I'm getting at, trying to sit in

1180
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,879
Speaker 4: the pocket and throw the ball, which with younger receivers too.

1181
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:36,840
Speaker 4: Keon Coleman, I know it was a nice player. Younger

1182
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 4: Shakiir is getting a lot of love early on. Curtis Samuel,

1183
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 4: you don't get you don't have dudes that bail you

1184
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 4: out as much. I guess, so like the look interceptions, Jilly,

1185
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:48,760
Speaker 4: not surprised you interceptions get brought up on this podcast. Okay,

1186
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 4: last one player long shot from Brandon.

1187
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 3: I think this is actually one of the most fun

1188
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 3: bets you can make on a future this season, give

1189
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 3: me Tyreek Hill to have at least two hundred receiving

1190
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 3: yards in any game this season plus two to seventy five. Now, look,

1191
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 3: have you got this bet? Last year you cashed on

1192
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 3: opening Day he had two hundred and fifteen yards and

1193
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 3: two touchdowns in the opener. He had a one to

1194
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 3: eighty one and a one sixty three by the end

1195
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 3: of October. Previous year, he had four games one to

1196
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 3: six year higher by the end of October. In the

1197
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 3: last two seasons, the Mike McDaniel seasons, he has twelve

1198
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 3: games one hundred and forty three yards or better. So

1199
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 3: I'll do the math for you. About once every three weeks,

1200
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 3: you're at one hundred and forty three yards or better.

1201
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 3: You're watching on Sunday afternoon on NFL Red Zone. The

1202
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 3: TV flips over to Miami and two was dropping back,

1203
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 3: and you get that moment every Sunday for the whole season.

1204
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 3: The bomb is in the air and you're like, oh

1205
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 3: my gosh, is this the tireek one where one bomb

1206
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: away from two hundred. It's so fun. I can't wait

1207
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 3: to just root for crazy Tyre Killed yardage totals two

1208
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 3: hundred a game is Child's play for tyre kill plus

1209
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 3: two seventy five.

1210
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 4: Even just yack, right, you're into that, just catch it

1211
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 4: ten yards up and then run love it. Okay, let's

1212
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 4: recap best bets. So we're gonna take from these twenty

1213
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 4: five plus combined, and they're gonna give their favorite favorite ones.

1214
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 4: Brandon you first, all.

1215
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 3: Right, I'll take Seahawks playoffs plus two fifteen to make

1216
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Give me my Panthers Island thirteen to one

1217
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 3: division winner, and that Browns Division plus five to fifty,

1218
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 3: and then I'll go Dolphin's most points score to sixteen

1219
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 3: to one.

1220
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 2: Jill, I'm gonna go with Josh Allen most interceptions Jags

1221
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs at plus one twenty and I'm

1222
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 2: also with the Browns Division at plus five fifty.

1223
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 4: Okay, excellent job, both of you. I know you guys

1224
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 4: put a lot of time into this, and we don't.

1225
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 4: Your research and what you've put into it preparation wise

1226
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 4: doesn't all make the one hour, but it helps you

1227
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 4: filter it through your brain and then make your arguments.

1228
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:50,440
Speaker 4: So I know that there's a lot of time that

1229
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 4: get to put into this, So hats off, Jill, Glant,

1230
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson. Follow these guys in the Action App. If

1231
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 4: you don't do so already, they'll be adding these And

1232
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 4: I would also just add and you guys have hinted

1233
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 4: at this live in season plays that I know. Brand's

1234
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 4: all over that. Jill, you'll dabble as well. It's this

1235
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 4: is a kind of episode to remind you there are

1236
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 4: there are angles you can take once the season starts,

1237
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 4: based on anything injuries, how a team is overperforming, underperforming.

1238
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 4: That's why it's really important to follow these guys in

1239
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 4: the app and stay locked in over at the Action Network.

1240
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 4: We will return here are the Action Network Podcast later

1241
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 4: this week with season long player props. Chris Raybond Sean

1242
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 4: Kerner will be with you for that, and then next week,

1243
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 4: NFL Week one will kick things off with mister Brandon

1244
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 4: Anderson talking his favorite bets on NFL Award categories, so

1245
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 4: a little more specific market and we'll get Brandon to

1246
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 4: dive into that for joke. Alant, Brandon Anderson, Brendan Glasheet,

1247
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,720
Speaker 4: thanks so much for listening to the Action Network Podcast.

1248
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 4: Hope you enjoyed our long Shots and Exotics episode. Action

1249
00:59:57,600 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 4: Network Podcast presented by vem festive block Action Network reminds

1250
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 4: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1251
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 4: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1252
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 4: to seven at one eight hundred gambler