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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action.

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Speaker 3: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing show.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to cash to start.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 4: they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you.

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Speaker 4: Want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: What's of everybody?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 5: your host, Chris Raybound NFL Week five is year Today.

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Speaker 5: I have joined by one of the most accurate rancors

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Speaker 5: in the game, Sean Kerner. I have joined by Touchdown

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Speaker 5: betting guru Jill. This is the Touchdown Show, Fellas. What's

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Speaker 5: going on, Sean? I'll start with you. We had a

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Speaker 5: few of these last week, Dark pitts irving a Hampton genty.

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Speaker 4: How you feeling?

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Speaker 3: Yeah good?

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Speaker 6: I had Dart and Hampton in that same game. I

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Speaker 6: don't know if we're gonna get dartedt plus three fifty anymore.

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Speaker 3: He looked pretty.

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Speaker 6: Good rushing the ball, but yeah, I was so close

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Speaker 6: on the eighty Mitchell plus four fifty Again, He's a

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Speaker 6: gift that keeps on giving. I mean, in theory, you'd

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Speaker 6: probably want to just ladder his I said his all,

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Speaker 6: you know, receiving yards over over over over what he

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Speaker 6: finished with ninety six yards and what an inch away

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Speaker 6: from a touchdown. But he celebrated a bit too early,

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Speaker 6: so we didn't catch the plus four fifty. But you know,

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Speaker 6: I'd go back to the well there if I had

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Speaker 6: to again.

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Speaker 3: It was so close Kerner eighty.

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Speaker 5: Richard was never in his career having as many yards

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Speaker 5: as he had that last game. Like this is like

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Speaker 5: this is like Jill with Mariota, Like Jill is just

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Speaker 5: like no, Mariota is terrible. It's never happening. It probably

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Speaker 5: will happen. But I mean, yo, what do you think?

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Speaker 5: What do you think about?

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Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing that I would give him

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Speaker 2: credit for is that he was at least reaching out,

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean to trying to score. It

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Speaker 2: wasn't like the toss behind like is Jonathan Taylor, Toshaun

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Speaker 2: Jackson all that kind of stuff. So I try to.

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Speaker 4: Give him a little bit of benefit of the doubt.

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Speaker 2: But I think Alex Pearce might be back this week too,

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Speaker 2: so I don't know how much playing time he's gonna

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Speaker 2: get going forward, But I mean that was prime time

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Speaker 2: for him, and I think, yeah, like, I just think

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Speaker 2: right now, he probably needs a week just to cool out.

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Speaker 2: Let's see what happens on that receiving side on the

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Speaker 2: Colts and then maybe he can get his role back.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, after that, it's an infamy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, his role is to back up Pierce.

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Speaker 6: I said, you know, he'll go back to you know,

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Speaker 6: being a benchwarmer this week. And I don't care if

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Speaker 6: he doesn't do it again. He did it last week

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Speaker 6: when I said he can go off, so that's all

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Speaker 6: that matters. But again, it was so close on the touchdown,

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Speaker 6: but I mean he crushed his like you know, yarders

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Speaker 6: ladders for sure.

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Speaker 5: All right, we're gonna get into our favorite touchdowns for

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Speaker 5: every game on the Week five Slate Alternate given our

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Speaker 5: favorite touchdown bets there. We'll also get to some parways

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Speaker 5: for Sunday and Monday Night football before we get out

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Speaker 5: of here. We'll track them in the Parlay Express account

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Speaker 5: on the Action Network app, so be sure to follow that. Also,

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Speaker 5: if you want to tail some of these bets, just

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Speaker 5: look for the quick slip link down in the podcast

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Speaker 5: and video description, or you can go to Actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 5: com slash bet. Now, this episode should drop shortly before

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Speaker 5: Thursday Night Football, so we'll start right there. Thursday Night Football,

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Speaker 5: Niners at Rams. Niners just completely decimated on offense. Looks

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Speaker 5: like it's gonna be Matt Jones throwing to Kendrick Bourne,

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Speaker 5: Marcus Valdez scaling. I can't even think of all these receivers, Kurner.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, DeMarcus, he's back. So I mean, what do

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Speaker 5: you do in this spot if you're looking for a touchdown?

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Speaker 3: Bet?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm gonna go Jake Tanjas here at plus four

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Speaker 6: twenty five. You know, like you just said, the wide

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Speaker 6: receiver room is completely decimated and depleted right now. But

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Speaker 6: Tans is still filling in for Kittle and should see

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Speaker 6: you know, increase in targets here just by everybody being hurt.

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Speaker 6: And he's scored twice this season.

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Speaker 3: He looks solid.

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Speaker 6: He's he's out there running her out, you know, around

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Speaker 6: seventy percent of the dropbacks, maybe higher tonight, who knows.

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Speaker 6: So I just think that plus four twenty five tonight

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Speaker 6: is too good to pass up for him.

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Speaker 4: And I gotta give you.

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Speaker 5: Credit, Kurner for just not for resisting the temptation to

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Speaker 5: just go at Christian McCaffrey. Luckily, the forty nine ers

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Speaker 5: have another lunch pale guy who just comes in early

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Speaker 5: and leaves late in their starting lineup in tanj just

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Speaker 5: so I'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 4: Jai, we got Ram Ninus Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: I'm given the same guy. I think this guy has

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Speaker 2: been given out as a ram every week on this show,

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Speaker 2: So I'm keeping the tradition going DeVante Adams anytime touchdown

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Speaker 2: he's scored in three or four games. I believe the

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Speaker 2: NFL and ED zone turn targets with nine. I think

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Speaker 2: I'll also just mention Poka Nakula, who I think is amazing,

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Speaker 2: sometimes gets maybe a little too much love from the

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Speaker 2: receptions and the yardage, like he's not really somebody who

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Speaker 2: gets a ton of end zone targets. Now he has scored,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen him even run for a rushing touchdown,

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Speaker 2: But when they get with inside the twenty, they are

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Speaker 2: looking for Davante repeatedly. So I think anytime we can

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Speaker 2: get Davonte at plus odds at this rate, especially in

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Speaker 2: a favorable matchup, I think we have to take them.

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Speaker 5: Oh Ben, I like that, Joe, because you kind of

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Speaker 5: you kind of teed up my anytime touchdown selection for

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Speaker 5: this game with those little nuggets there, because yeah, I'm

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Speaker 5: going to Rams wide receiver. It's not Davante Adams, it's

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Speaker 5: not Poka Nakula, it's not even my favorite.

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Speaker 4: Ram receiver too.

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Speaker 5: To Atwill who scored at a long play last week,

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Speaker 5: it's Jordan Whittington at plus five point fifty. This is

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Speaker 5: the guy that if you look at the underlying red

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Speaker 5: zone usage, he is in there on every red zone

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Speaker 5: snap for this Rams tea. It's not at Well, it's

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Speaker 5: Jordan Waitington. And what do you have for this game?

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Speaker 5: We have starting tight end Tyler Higbee out, so that

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Speaker 5: increases the odds. I think of more one to one personnel.

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Speaker 5: Sean mcvay's bread and butter in the red zone, and

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Speaker 5: that third receiver more often than not is going to

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Speaker 5: be Jordan Whittington. They love him for run blocking and

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Speaker 5: things like that. So he's going to be in there,

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Speaker 5: and he's a guy that's most likely to kind of

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Speaker 5: sneak by the defense. He's going to get the least

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Speaker 5: coverage out of all these guys. That's just what happens

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Speaker 5: when you have a Davante Adam, you have a Pooka Nakua,

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Speaker 5: you have a Kien Williams on the team. So at

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Speaker 5: plus five fifty, I think his odds are being sold

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Speaker 5: a bit short. I have him around a plus about

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Speaker 5: around just over twenty percent chance to score in this game.

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Speaker 5: I think that he's been undervalued all year and we

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Speaker 5: haven't really seen him getting the end zone yet.

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Speaker 4: So like it for this spot.

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Speaker 5: So Jordan Winnington for me at plus five fifty. If

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Speaker 5: you parway all these together on draftings, Jake Tanjis for

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Speaker 5: Sean at plus four twenty five, Davante Adams for Jill

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Speaker 5: at plus one thirty, and Jordan Wittington for me at

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Speaker 5: plus five point fifty, you get an eighty to one

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Speaker 5: same game parway on DraftKings. Will track this in the

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Speaker 5: Parlay Express account and the Action Network app, so be

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Speaker 5: sure to follow that account for this parlay and more.

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Speaker 5: All Right, before we get into the Sunday slate, I'll

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Speaker 5: toss it over to myself for a word from our sponsor.

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Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in

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Speaker 5: partnership with DraftKings, we'd like to tell you that the

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Speaker 5: next great touchdown is coming and you can bet on

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Speaker 4: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 5: All right, Sunday Slate, we have another early games, so Sean,

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Speaker 5: be sure we're up in case, you know, there's a

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Speaker 5: late scratch early like he was last week with Jalen Warren,

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Speaker 5: I went some good things for Kenny Gainwell, favorite of

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Speaker 5: the show who seems to or you know, guy just

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Speaker 5: never seems to go away.

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Speaker 4: But on this one, maybe maybe the touchdowns will go away.

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Speaker 5: Because the total for this game is about thirty five

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Speaker 5: thirty six. Sean Kerner, it is Vikings Brown in the UK,

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Speaker 5: I believe, yeah in the UK. Who are you looking

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Speaker 5: at if if there's a touch If you think there's

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Speaker 5: gonna be a touchdown in this game, well well.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I guess I could do the no touchdowns, but

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Speaker 6: you know it's a low total, so I think we're

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Speaker 6: gonna get some decent prices on the two guys I'm

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Speaker 6: talking about. But the first one this game is in London,

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Speaker 6: so this is a homecoming game for Bond. Isaiah Bond

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Speaker 6: at plus five hundred, So like, let's go with him

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Speaker 6: because I was already you know, excited about him this

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Speaker 6: week on the waiver Pod Ray Bond and he's an

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Speaker 6: up and coming guy who hasn't scored yet, so hopefully

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Speaker 6: it doesn't pull an eighty Mitchell. But he's a guy

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Speaker 6: I want to invest in before he does, because you know,

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Speaker 6: he was an undrafted rookie, but that was only because

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Speaker 6: he was dealing with some legal issues at the time

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Speaker 6: of the draft. A lot of people thought, you know,

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Speaker 6: he was like a third round prospect at one point.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's considered like a first round talent. So

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Speaker 3: he was undrafted.

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Speaker 6: Brown scooped him up and then his legal issues were resolved,

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Speaker 6: so he you know, he joined the Browns late in

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Speaker 6: preseason and his role has been growing every single week

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Speaker 6: so far. He was eating in the Cedric Tillman's role,

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Speaker 6: and now Cedric Tillman's out, so I think he's you know,

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Speaker 6: the clear number two wide receiver right now. So again

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Speaker 6: I want to invest in him before he scores his

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Speaker 6: first touchdown, before the market catches on.

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Speaker 3: So give me Bond at plus.

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Speaker 6: Five hundred, and then I got to go with Raybaun's

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Speaker 6: guy on the other side, Jalen Naylor at plus nine hundred. Again,

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Speaker 6: we're not expecting many points here, so I think, you know,

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Speaker 6: the studs on the vikings are a bit over. There's

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Speaker 6: not really much value there. So I think taking a

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Speaker 6: guy like Naylor makes a ton of sense. He's always

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Speaker 6: sneaking in this market, and he's plus nine hundred here.

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Speaker 6: I barely cash on his under one and a half receptions.

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Speaker 3: Last week. They were peppering him with targets.

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Speaker 6: At the end of the game he got I think

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Speaker 6: he got three straight end zone targets. He finally caught

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Speaker 6: one of them for the score. So you know they

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Speaker 6: love looking his way in the red zone because you

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Speaker 6: know you're having to cover Justin Jefferson.

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Speaker 3: TJ.

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Speaker 6: Hockinson worried about you know, Jordan Mason, so he tends

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Speaker 6: to get open, you know, near the end zone. So

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Speaker 6: projecting him closer to plus seven to fifty, so I

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Speaker 6: like the value of getting here at nine to one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and quick question.

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Speaker 5: I know this is not a fantasy pod Kerner, but

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Speaker 5: I love the Bond call. You know a lot of

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Speaker 5: people lost, neighbors lost Tyreek. How high are your ranking

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Speaker 5: Bond this week? Is because if I give him the

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Speaker 5: Folks Hendric Kilvin role, he creeps into my top forty.

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Speaker 4: I'm just curious where you have him for this week.

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Speaker 3: I don't have him that high. I do think he's

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Speaker 3: going to take the full Tillman role.

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Speaker 6: I think the variable is we now have Dylan Gabriel, who, yeah,

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Speaker 6: you know, could be better or worse than Flacco.

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Speaker 3: We don't really know.

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Speaker 6: I think he's going to have a little bit more

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Speaker 6: chemistry with Bond because they have been on the second unit.

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Speaker 6: But that's just kind of the variable that I don't

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Speaker 6: really know. And this this is a tough matchup for

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Speaker 6: rookie going up against the Brian Flores defense, so that's

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Speaker 6: my only concern. But yeah, I think Bond absolutely has

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Speaker 6: the upside to be a top forty type receiver. I'm

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Speaker 6: just being a little bit more conservative, you know, this

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Speaker 6: week round wide receiver fifty.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, he has a ton of upside for sure.

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Speaker 2: Anything letter than Flacco. Man, and Flacco is just horrible

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Speaker 2: through four games.

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Speaker 5: Say yeah, yeah, the Bond Nailor, and I'll say, if

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Speaker 5: it's not those two guys, probably going to be quinch

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Speaker 5: On Gis, Yeah, Judgis. This is what the Browns are

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Speaker 5: doing these days. But no love the Isaiah Bonkoll really

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Speaker 5: loved that one. All right, Jill, let's go to the

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Speaker 5: normal daytime slate, Miami at Carolina. We're surprised to see

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Speaker 5: Carolina as a home dog. I mean, Miami season has

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Speaker 5: been kind of just circling the drain too, but of

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Speaker 5: course they get to win over the half with the Jets,

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Speaker 5: the half with Jets on in prime time, so I

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Speaker 5: guess Miami's riding high here.

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Speaker 4: Who do you like in this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think we got to go with Ali Gordon, the

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Speaker 2: backup running back behind Devon a Chan. He's around plus

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Speaker 2: three to twenty, so he scored in week three and

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Speaker 2: right now through four games. I was actually surprised when

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Speaker 2: I saw this, but he has as many red zone

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Speaker 2: carries as Devon a Chan and all the carries inside

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Speaker 2: the five yard line. Davon a Chan as prominent as

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Speaker 2: he is in that offense he's just not getting those

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Speaker 2: carries between the tackles, especially when they get inside the

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Speaker 2: ten yard line. And I also would just like to

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Speaker 2: point out I think this Panthers run defense is started

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Speaker 2: to crack because I think there was almost too much

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Speaker 2: of a shift after that Week three game against the

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Speaker 2: Falcons where all they shut down Bijon and Algier and

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Speaker 2: it's like no, no, no, no, no, sattle down. Because we

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Speaker 2: just watched in Week four the Patriots had three rushing

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Speaker 2: touchdowns Antonio Gibson, Traveon Henderson, Drake May ran one in

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Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna have to probably lean a

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Speaker 2: little bit more on the run as well, because their

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Speaker 2: offense is going to take a complete shift now with

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Speaker 2: Tyreek Hillow where he won't necessarily bend to defense the

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Speaker 2: way that you know he had in previous times. So

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Speaker 2: I think if they go with a more conservative approach

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Speaker 2: and take a little bit off of TUIs played on

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Speaker 2: the on the passing side, they're gonna run it a

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Speaker 2: little bit more.

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Speaker 6: So.

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Speaker 2: Olie Gordon around plus three to twenty is my favorite

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Speaker 2: dolphin bet. But on the Panthers side, I think we

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Speaker 2: just got to keep taking the quarterbacks to score on

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins, Bryce Young, he's right now around six to one.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing I odds around six to one and as

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Speaker 2: low as like plus two to fifty at other places.

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Speaker 2: And the Dolphins just I don't know what's their deal,

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Speaker 2: but they will not They just give up touchdowns to quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Even justin Field's on a fourth down and five still

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Speaker 2: ran for a forty six yard touchdown on them. Daniel

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Speaker 2: Jones ran for twice on them, Drake may ran one in.

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Speaker 2: The only quarterback actually to not score on them, surprisingly

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Speaker 2: and go figure was Josh Allen, which was funny. So

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Speaker 2: now Bryce Young, he ran for a touchdown in Week two.

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Speaker 2: He had actually six rushing touchdowns last year. And I

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Speaker 2: think if the Dolphins, one of the things that I've

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Speaker 2: noticed as well is in the red zone they're playing

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Speaker 2: a lot more man coverage. Now a lot of teams

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Speaker 2: they'll play man coverage more in the red zone, but

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins were almost going exclusively that way against the Jets,

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Speaker 2: and I think if that's the case, Young is just

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Speaker 2: going to take off and score. And now Truba Hubbard

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Speaker 2: is gonna potentially miss this game as well, So I'm

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Speaker 2: not I'm just saying at this price point, it's really

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Speaker 2: hard to overlook Bryce Young against this defense.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the biggest challenge for Bryce Young is that his

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Speaker 5: odds to get benched are probably also six to them.

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Speaker 3: It was a non zero chance.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he's in the game. I think he has a

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Speaker 4: great chance, and I think I think he needs to

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Speaker 4: use his legs more, to be completely honest.

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Speaker 5: You know, he's doing a lot better with the sacks

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Speaker 5: and and things like that, but there's just not enough

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Speaker 5: guys getting.

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Speaker 4: Open for him not to you know, be using his

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Speaker 4: legs a little more.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Al Gordon, Bryce Young love it.

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Speaker 5: Let's go to Raiders at cold for the Indianapolis coachs,

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Speaker 5: gotta go Jonathan Taylor at minus two ten here. Now

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Speaker 5: that sounds juiced up. You can always go first two touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: Don't want to get greedy here, but I will say this,

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Speaker 5: it is not often that you see a player as

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Speaker 5: prominent as Jonathan Taylor underpriced in the touchdown market. I

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Speaker 5: actually have his projected odds at minus two forty five,

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Speaker 5: So toget him have minus two ten here.

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Speaker 4: I'll take that all day.

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Speaker 5: There's a Raider defense that over their last forty one

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Speaker 5: running back carries have given up three rushing touchdowns. You

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Speaker 5: saw McNichols, you saw Crosskey Merritt and then Swift get

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Speaker 5: in the end zone against this team. So like Taylor

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Speaker 5: and then shout to our guy Nick Giffen, the doctor

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Speaker 5: gotta go with Trey Tucker on the Raiders side. This

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Speaker 5: is another interesting one because I have Tuck He's at

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Speaker 5: plus two to seventy five. I remember projected around plus

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Speaker 5: two thirty three. And I have Tucker's touchdown onds projected

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Speaker 5: higher than Jacoby Myers, who in the touchdown market is

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Speaker 5: plus you know, plus two ten compared to Tucker's plus

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Speaker 5: two seventy five. So I think this is a steal

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Speaker 5: to get Tucker at this price.

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Speaker 4: Here. Love him in this spot.

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Speaker 5: This is the kind of game where you know he

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Speaker 5: erupts right after a dud. So love Trey Tucker. Love

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Speaker 5: Jonathan Taylor in this spot. Raiders Colts next up, we

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Speaker 5: got the oh Man disgusting this bowl curder. I guess

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Speaker 5: it's only right that you get this one. Texans Ravens.

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Speaker 5: The Ravens they don't even they're not even they're not

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Speaker 5: even using like the normal rushing quarterback.

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Speaker 4: That they usually use.

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Speaker 5: Uh, you got got you got Isaiah likely Cardio kig In.

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Speaker 5: We got Nick Chubb in here getting getting usurped. But uh,

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Speaker 5: I think I think you kind of want to buy

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Speaker 5: low on some guys in this spot.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we had to just blow the cover on Those

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Speaker 6: are the two guys that I'm taking here.

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Speaker 3: I was just thinking of this disgusting game. Yeah, first up,

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Speaker 3: Nick Chubb.

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Speaker 6: Okay, it's important to hear this next part plus two eighty.

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Speaker 6: That's why I like last week. Last week, I was

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Speaker 6: expecting Woody Marx to potentially get the hot hand and

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Speaker 6: leapfrog Nick Chubb, and sure enough he did. It was

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Speaker 6: an easy matchup, of course against the Titans, but I

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Speaker 6: had Woody Marks in my crazy triple ground bet to lead.

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Speaker 3: The game in rushing, which he did.

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Speaker 6: But then I got over zealous thinking cam Or could

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Speaker 6: throw for more than one hundred and ten yards against

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Speaker 6: the Texans.

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Speaker 3: I was wrong about that, so that one was cooked.

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Speaker 6: But I think you know, it could revert back to

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Speaker 6: fifty to fifty type timeshare. We don't really know yet.

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Speaker 6: I do think Woody Marks is the better back right now,

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Speaker 6: but I do think it is sort of a toss

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Speaker 6: up who would see the next goal line carry, so

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Speaker 6: I think, you know, Nick Chubb all the way up

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Speaker 6: to plus two to eighty now probably is offering some

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Speaker 6: decent value.

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Speaker 3: So gonna go Chubb here.

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Speaker 6: And on the other side, you mentioned him the cardio

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Speaker 6: king himself of week four, Isaiah likely at plus of course,

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Speaker 6: you know he returned to the lineup last week, ran

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Speaker 6: twenty art twenty routes for zero targets, so he was

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Speaker 6: in fact the cardio king that we awarded him on

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Speaker 6: the fancy flex. But I think you know he's gonna

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Speaker 6: he's too good not to bounce back. I think as

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Speaker 6: soon as this week. The one wrinkle is, you know,

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Speaker 6: we don't know how this offense will look necessarily with

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Speaker 6: Cooper Rush under center, but we do know that he's

390
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Speaker 6: not gonna scramble as much as Lamar Jackson. So if

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Speaker 6: they're in the red zone, it's more likely that you know,

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Speaker 6: Russia is gonna tempt to pass then scramble, So I

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Speaker 6: think that's gonna help likely and unlikely should be out

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Speaker 6: there in most red zone packages. And again he's he's

395
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Speaker 6: too good to not bounce back at some point, So

396
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Speaker 6: this week, you know, he might be more involved and

397
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Speaker 6: at plus five fifty.

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Speaker 3: I gotta go with likely here.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens defense, aren't they missing like half the team

400
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 2: at this point right now as well? Like I think

401
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Speaker 2: that's the end of thing.

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Speaker 5: They're missing, they're missing wins, they're missing they're missing quarterback,

403
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Speaker 5: they're missing ye yeah.

404
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Speaker 6: I mean Ropewan's out now too, or he's doubtful. Yeah,

405
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Speaker 6: this is it's a good spot to you know, invest

406
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Speaker 6: in some Texans players for sure.

407
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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I mean, if the Texans run went in,

408
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 5: it's either going to be Chubb or Woody. If they

409
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Speaker 5: just had Cameron Dicker to kick the extra point, we'd

410
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Speaker 5: be in business here, all right. Denver at Philadelphia had

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Speaker 5: Jill who you're looking after touchdowns?

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Speaker 4: And Broncos at Eagles.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, to stick with the libido conversation, this

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Speaker 2: game feels a little flaccid for touchdowns. You know, I'll

415
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Speaker 2: just say this for Broncos Eagles. So I've talked to

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Speaker 2: Nick Giffin about this game probably more than any other

417
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Speaker 2: game over the last two weeks, and no touchdown is

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Speaker 2: seriously on the table in this game. It's around one

419
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Speaker 2: hundred to one. The Eagles and Broncos, like their defenses

420
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 2: are legit like top five in the lowest explosive play

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Speaker 2: rate allowed on both pass and the run. And then

422
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Speaker 2: now they're facing each other this week and both of

423
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Speaker 2: these pass offenses have been pretty underwhelming through four games.

424
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Speaker 2: Even the running game hasn't been great outside of maybe

425
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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts, who's maybe picked his own spots here or there.

426
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Speaker 2: So I would just put a disclaimer out there that

427
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out a touchdown prop on each side,

428
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Speaker 2: but no touchdown is extremely on the table. That was

429
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Speaker 2: the first thing I wrote about this game when I

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Speaker 2: did my Anytime Touchdown preview that'll come out this Sunday.

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Speaker 3: So on the.

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Speaker 2: Eagle side, Dallas Goddards around plus four hundred, that's where

433
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Speaker 2: I would go two touchdowns last week. The Eagles interior

434
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Speaker 2: offensive line, they just have They're graded really low obviously

435
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Speaker 2: from a run standpoint for PFF, but they just have

436
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Speaker 2: him been doing their job, and I think more passing

437
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: could be coming. But that doesn't really mean that it's

438
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 2: going to go to a J.

439
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 3: Brown.

440
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 2: You know, just because he sends a cryptic message doesn't

441
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 2: mean that he's going to get more targets. It's not

442
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 2: been the case from a squeaky wheel standpoint in this

443
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: Eagles offense, and then, of course he could be shadowed

444
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 2: by Patricks' retained for most of the game as well.

445
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 2: Broncos they play man coverage at the second highest rate.

446
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 2: Goddard actually scored twice versus man defenses this year. Now,

447
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 2: he did miss practice on Wednesday, but from reports out

448
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 2: as the Thursday evening he is back, so I'll have

449
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 2: toimistic he'll play. So Dallas Goddard is who I would

450
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: vote for. If you were going to go with Devonte Smith,

451
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: just make sure Dallas Carter isn't playing, because that's when

452
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: Devonte Smith seems his target rate go up. On the

453
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 2: Broncos side, we're going Marvin Mims again plus four to fifty.

454
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 2: I mean, he scored, and he could just score in

455
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 2: a variety of ways. I think this is the thing

456
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 2: about him that I just love is that you could

457
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 2: take the top off the defense. He could get a

458
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 2: Jets sweep. He's returning kicks, he leads the team in

459
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 2: end zone targets and a dot And one of the

460
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: things about this Eagles defense, surprisingly over the last three

461
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: games it should be four games straight, they've ad out

462
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 2: a fifty plus yard touchdown in three or four games,

463
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: and we've watched them just get kind of taken advantage

464
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 2: of over the top. So I think Marvin Mims is

465
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 2: the guy to do that, especially because he leads the

466
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: team in a dots. So Dallas Goddard and Marvin Mims,

467
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 2: if I'm picking a touchdown on each side, but no

468
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: touchdown at one hundred to one, is also going to

469
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 2: be bet for this game.

470
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, these are two really good defense I could see

471
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 5: this being a lower scoring one. But like always like

472
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 5: Mims and like the Goddard call, I think he only

473
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 5: he only had one catch.

474
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,479
Speaker 4: Well was it a couple of weeks ago, and it

475
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: was a touchdown?

476
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: So both of his touchdowns against the Bucks were both

477
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: like shovel passes like inside the table.

478
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 5: Oh, that was a great play call. That was a

479
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 5: I don't think we've ever seen that before in the NFL.

480
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 5: Like it was like everyone was just lined up on

481
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 5: to the right of Hurts and it looked kind of

482
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 5: like a touch push formation.

483
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 2: He just Yeah, they're getting gated with Markley touchdown. They

484
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 2: misdirected it twice in that game.

485
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're starting to they're starting to get mad at

486
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 5: all those you know, everyone talking about the touch push

487
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 5: and just get just just start styling on him. So yeah,

488
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 5: I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see more

489
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 5: you know, eagle skill guy touchdowns, maybe at the expense

490
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 5: of Jalen Hurts rushing.

491
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 4: All right, Uh, Cowboys at the Jets.

492
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 5: One thing I've kind of learned about these two teams

493
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 5: and I've kind of put it into play on the

494
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 5: show and I've I've been assigning these games is he

495
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 5: kind of just got to stick with the the obvious

496
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 5: guys in these spots.

497
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 4: So for Dallas, we're going Javonte Williams here.

498
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 5: He was in on more red zone staffs than any

499
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 5: other Cowboy last week. And the Jets they've given up

500
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 5: the most running back carries in the league. Teams are

501
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 5: teams are running on them. A lot of that is

502
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 5: game script. But you know, Miles Sanders a little banged

503
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 5: up last week. They Jayden Blue seem to have you know,

504
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 5: bang somebody's mom or something. I don't know, but he

505
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 5: hasn't gotten down.

506
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 4: The field yet.

507
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 5: So it's all about Javonte in this spot. Got to

508
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 5: give him an apology for you know, kind of being

509
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 5: down on him heading into the year. But he's look

510
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 5: good and you know, regardless what's going on with this

511
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 5: offensive line, he seemed he seems to be a focal

512
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 5: point of the offense. So like him at even money.

513
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 5: I actually have his touchdown onds higher than that. I

514
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,479
Speaker 5: think it's above fifty percent for Shavonte Williams to get

515
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 5: in the end zone in MetLife.

516
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 4: And then for the Jets, Garrett Wilson.

517
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 5: Another guy who you don't expect to have to really

518
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 5: project value at a guy at plus one point fifty.

519
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 5: But the Cowboys have given up an NFL high nine

520
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 5: touchdown receptions two opposing wide receivers. So Garret Wilson is

521
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 5: another guy who have undervalue to the market. I have

522
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 5: him close to a fifth fifty touchdown bet in this

523
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 5: spot for the New York Jets. So Javonte and Garrett

524
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 5: Wilson for Cowboys at Jets.

525
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 4: Kerner, Man, did you just piss off our producers?

526
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,959
Speaker 5: You keep getting these games that I don't know if

527
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 5: there's gonna be I mean, I know, due didn't like

528
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 5: the touchdowns.

529
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 4: And Eagles broncause, man, that's kind of a marquee game.

530
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 5: You got Titans at Cardinals and the Cardinals don't even

531
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 5: have a running back right now, so I know, what.

532
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 4: Do you doing?

533
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 6: That?

534
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: What I did?

535
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 6: But you know, when the going gets weird, the weird

536
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 6: turn pro. So give me these weird games. I'm going

537
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 6: to go for the Titan side. I'm going to go

538
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 6: with elik Io Manor at plus four twenty. You know,

539
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 6: last week calv really saw his playing time cut in half.

540
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 6: Apparently he's dealing with a couple of injuries, and yesterday

541
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 6: he saw a practice with the knee and elbow injuries.

542
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 6: I just got an alert recently that he missed today's practice,

543
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 6: today's Thursday. So you know, the chances that he sits

544
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 6: out this week are elevated now. So there's a chance

545
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 6: Io Manner could be the lead dog this week. Already

546
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 6: has two touchdowns this year. I think he's the future

547
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 6: of this wide receiver room. So you know, the chemistry

548
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 6: between he and cam Or should only get better as

549
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 6: the season goes. So the plus four to twenty price,

550
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 6: you know, seems kind of high to me, pun intended,

551
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna take it.

552
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 3: And then on the other side, yeah.

553
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 6: The running back room for the Cardinals open up again

554
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 6: with you know, not only James Connor out for the season,

555
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 6: but now Trey Benson's gonna miss four to six weeks,

556
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 6: I'm gonna go with Amari Demarcado at plus two fifty.

557
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 6: I originally wrote Michael Carter here yesterday when he was

558
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 6: like plus one seventy. Now he's down to even money,

559
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 6: so the market shock to be fair. Yeah, yeah, the

560
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 6: market's caught on. He's gonna be the lead back. He's

561
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 6: probably gonna take over most of the Tray Benson work

562
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 6: or the James Connor work at this point. But de

563
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 6: Marcado is probably gonna mix in more on early down

564
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 6: work than you know, traded with James or Carter did

565
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 6: with Benson. So you know, I think at plus two

566
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 6: to fifty, he's kind of sneaky here, and you know

567
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 6: he's going to be out there for all the passing

568
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 6: downs a two minute offense. That's how he scored last week.

569
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 6: He was in there for that you know, twelve fifteen

570
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 6: play yard drive play drive at the end of the

571
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 6: game where he caught the touchdown. So anytime he's you know,

572
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 6: had to step up, he's been pretty efficient. So I

573
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 6: think even in you know, sort of the backup role,

574
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 6: still he's sneaky here at plus two to fifty Karner.

575
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: I have a question about Michael Carter because he just

576
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 2: got sign and now announced that he is the starter.

577
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: Do you think he'll get kind of a starter role or.

578
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, yeah, I think yeah. I have him projected

579
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 6: for double digit carries. He he had double digit touches

580
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 6: in his three games with them at the end of

581
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 6: last year.

582
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: He was the leading rusher in.

583
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 6: The preseason, so he's he's been with the team now

584
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 6: for almost a year.

585
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, they and he he was operating.

586
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 6: I had demer Cod, I was under whatever it was

587
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 6: fourteen and a half rushing yards, so I was like

588
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 6: intently watching who would come in for Benson on early

589
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 6: downs and it was Carter just a few snaps. But

590
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 6: he's been operating as you know, the lead early down

591
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 6: back outside of Benson. So yeah, I think he's gonna

592
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 6: be rayb on what do you haven't projected for like

593
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 6: twelve carries like somewhere around there, I.

594
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 5: Think, yeah, definitely, yeah, right around double digits, right yeah,

595
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 5: right at that spot. I think I'm gonna bump them

596
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 5: up a little more now. But yeah, we talked about this,

597
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 5: you know, full disclosure off air last week, Kerner, because

598
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 5: you asked me, like, how many carries do I have

599
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 5: for de Marcater And I was like a confident one

600
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 5: and a half because yeah, I had Carter.

601
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 4: I had Carter taking that role.

602
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 3: It was going to be Night or Carter. We didn't know, right,

603
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 3: it could have been Bam Knight or Carter.

604
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 6: And it was absolutely Carter with Bam Knight playing special teams.

605
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 6: But we were intently, you know, focused on the Tray

606
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 6: Benson backups. So the fact that he's out, I think

607
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 6: we're equipped now to kind of figure out how this

608
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 6: is gonna parts out.

609
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: And they definitely have Carter Price like he is the

610
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: RB one in this offense for touchdowns, like he's around.

611
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: He's seen him like minus one twenty maybe even a

612
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: plus one oh five out there. But yeah, he's getting

613
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 2: James Connor touchdown prices, right, Yeah, yeah, Yeah.

614
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 4: We'll see if Bam Night mixes.

615
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 5: And I guess that's the kind of wild card because

616
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 5: it could be like thirty to nothing in the third

617
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 5: quarter in this game. If we see how Titans games

618
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 5: have gone, Uh okay, and mentioned Calvin Ridley. I think

619
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 5: twenty twenty two Calvin Ridley would also been on Io Manor.

620
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: That said, let's go to Bucks at Seahawks. Jill, what

621
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: you got all right? On the Bucks side, We'll go

622
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: with Chris Godwin. He's a plus two seventy five ten

623
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: targets in Week four, first game back, now only three catches,

624
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: but I kind of attribute a lot of that to rust,

625
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: and I think this is a matchup where I think

626
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: he could still be used quite a bit, especially if

627
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: Baker's throwing the ball so well right now, because they

628
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 1: play zone at a top ten rate, a lot of

629
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: Cover two and a lot of Cover three. Again, if

630
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: you have to use more last year sample size, but

631
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 1: his target rate versus those coverages last year was much

632
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: higher than compared to Winn, he says. Man defenses, of course,

633
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: Mike Evans is out, Bucky Irving is probably out as well.

634
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: And then also another reason why I like Godwin here especially,

635
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: I would like a Buccaneers touchdown that is within short

636
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: range because when you look at all the receiving touchdowns

637
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: the Seahawks have allowed so far, the longest one they've

638
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: allowed was last week to Marveson Marvin Harrison for seventeen yards.

639
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: Five of those are inside the ten yard line. So

640
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: to me, that thinks, let's go for the receiver who

641
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: has the lower A dot in the lower average depth

642
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: of target, and that's Chris Godwin right away. So on

643
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: the Bucks side, we'll go with him and this guy

644
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: I just can't quit him, Cooper Cups at plus three hundred,

645
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: and I don't know what to do with the Seahawks

646
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: offense if Cooper Cup is going to be keeping price

647
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: this way because he's just he's running as many routes

648
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: as JSN. But that forty target share for JSN is

649
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: just not sustainable. So if he and Sam Darnold ever

650
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: get on the same page, he might actually have a

651
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: He's some breakout opportunity, especially against a Bucks defense that

652
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: just is so good against the run. I don't expect

653
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: much from Kenneth Walker or our guy Zach Sharboney at

654
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: this point, so I do think the Seahawks are gonna

655
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 1: have to throw a little bit more. And if they

656
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: double up on JSM, which I kind of hope they do,

657
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: that'll be the Cooper Cup who's a touchdown price around

658
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: three to one.

659
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 6: I agree jsn's target chair forty unsustainable. It's got to

660
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 6: go up to like fifty or like, you know, sixty percent.

661
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 2: He needs more targets, or at least more end zone targets.

662
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's the big thing for me

663
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: with him is that he gets he's a killer between

664
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: the twenties, but don't they don't really target him that

665
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 2: much in the red zone?

666
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, JSN Cardio.

667
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 3: King Right, it was for three and a half quarters

668
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 3: last week one. I was saying that that had to

669
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: be five hundred million to one.

670
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 4: Thursday night weirdness. All right, what do we got?

671
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 5: Lions at Bengals? For the Bengals got a roll with

672
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 5: t Higgins here at plus two thirty. If you look

673
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 5: at Higgins's career with Jake Browning, he scored four times

674
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 5: on twenty completions. That's once every five catches. With Joe

675
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 5: Burrow it's double that. It's once every ten catches. Obviously

676
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 5: a lot bigger sample size. But the point is Browning,

677
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 5: you know, still one of the better backups in the league.

678
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 4: You know, it hasn't showed it, but he's.

679
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 5: Played against two of the top defenses in the Vikings

680
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 5: and then the Denver bron because those are two just

681
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 5: murderous defenses.

682
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 4: Now, the Lions are.

683
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 5: Still solid, but they're not at that level. This is

684
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 5: a game I think they could turn into a shootout here.

685
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 5: Unlike you know, the last the last couple as well,

686
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 5: So like t Higgins at plus two thirty here he

687
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 5: has you know, been efficient from a touchdown perspective with

688
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 5: browning behind center and for the Lions rolling with a

689
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 5: Monross sate Brown here. The Bengals have been playing a

690
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 5: lot of single high in this in this you know,

691
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 5: this new season with their new coordinator Al Golden, and

692
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 5: then a Monra has all four of the Lions receiving

693
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 5: touchdowns against single high. Now you would think it would

694
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 5: be Jamo more a Monro's doubled him up in first

695
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 5: reads in against single high and uh, you know, caught

696
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 5: all the touchdowns. And so it seems like even when

697
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 5: you know defenses are playing single high, they're they're kind

698
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 5: of rotating coverage to Jmo on those deeper routes and

699
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 5: it's leaving a manra and with opportunities underneath.

700
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 4: So that's kind of how you have.

701
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 5: To play it with this Lion's offense at this point

702
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 5: because Jamo will run away from you said, I don't

703
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 5: hate him either, but just based on my projections a

704
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 5: Monro minus one oh five. I have him at like

705
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 5: over a fifty percent touchdown odds for this game touchdown probability,

706
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 5: So I like him around right there, around even money,

707
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna roll with him. I don't hate Jamo either,

708
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 5: but officially rolling with a Monro. Saint brown all with

709
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 5: T Higgins.

710
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 2: Ray Bonn, I got a question for you about the

711
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: Bengals offense, specifically touchdown ons. What is the threshold that

712
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase would have to hit before you, guys would

713
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 2: be like, all right, I'm back on board because the

714
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: last two weeks with Browning has been around one seventy

715
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 2: to plus one eighty. And you know, it's just wondering

716
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: kind of because you know that people are gonna wonder.

717
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 2: They want to bet Jamar Chase, they want the good,

718
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: they want the top wide receiver. But you got Jake Browning.

719
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: You got to take that into consideration. So I'm kind

720
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 2: of wondering, from your guys perspective, what would the odds

721
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 2: have to be your threshold before you'd be like, all right,

722
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: I'm back on Chase now.

723
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 3: Plus two hundred plus two hundred, That's.

724
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: What I was thinking too. But I wanted to just

725
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 2: hear it. I needed to hear it. I needed I

726
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 2: needed some confirmation on my end.

727
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually maybe a little higher for me, maybe

728
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 5: like plus maybe like plus one what do you say.

729
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: Was plus one seventy five?

730
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, give or take.

731
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I actually don't mind that price.

732
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 5: I have him, I do have his him and Higgins,

733
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 5: I have both as values on this slate. So I

734
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 5: could have gotten a Chase, you know, for this one.

735
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 5: But yeah, Browning, I think he's gonna hit wide receivers.

736
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 5: This Lion defense will play a little bit more man

737
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 5: coverage than usual, I think, So I think this is

738
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 5: a good spot. You know, we've seen what we've seen

739
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 5: sample score for the Bengals this year. We've seen we've

740
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 5: seen a lot of tight end touchdowns. So I think,

741
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 5: just in general, wide receiver touchdowns for the Bengals are

742
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 5: a little undervalued. And you know, Yoshi, he's kind of

743
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 5: up and down in terms of the routes. But even him,

744
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 5: for a long shot, depending on his odds, would be

745
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 5: in play.

746
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't mind him.

747
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 5: I don't mind Chase around plus one seventy five or higher.

748
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 5: So he's kind of right right at that threshold from me.

749
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,919
Speaker 5: So we got the Commanders at the Chargers charges coming

750
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 5: off that lost to Jackson Dark Kerner.

751
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 4: We looking at four Washington at LA.

752
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, so this might be my favorite bet so far.

753
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 6: On the commander side, it's Chris Rodriguez Junior to score

754
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 6: the first touchdown at twelve to one, because ever since

755
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 6: Austin Eckler went down in week two, you know, we've

756
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 6: seen a very murky three way committee for the Commanders,

757
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 6: you know, where c rod actually gets the first two

758
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 6: drives that was the old Eckler role, and then he

759
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 6: gets way to Bill Crosby Merrit who's looked phenomenal this

760
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 6: year and he pretty much owns early down work the

761
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 6: rest of the game with Jeremy McNichols, you know, mixing

762
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 6: in but handling most of the you know, passing down work.

763
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:14,280
Speaker 3: But the fact that.

764
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 6: Sea Rods involved so much in the first two drives,

765
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 6: those are like his drives. He sees about half his

766
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 6: work in the game on the first two drives, means

767
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 6: he's a little bit underpriced to score the first touchdown

768
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 6: here at twelve to one. He's a bruiser too, you know,

769
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 6: if they get down to the goal line, on the

770
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 6: first two drives, he would be the one getting the

771
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 6: goal line work, and I think he's very talented short

772
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,800
Speaker 6: yarders back. So give me c rod to score the

773
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 6: first touchdown at twelve to one, and then on the

774
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 6: Chargers side, there's always so many options, but I gotta

775
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 6: go with my flavor of the week here Ronda Gatz

776
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 6: in the second at plus two to eighty, because, like

777
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 6: I said last week, we're probably not getting Hampton at

778
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 6: minus one twenty anytime soon. I mean, he just saw

779
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 6: a massive workload. He looked great, so I think he's

780
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 6: up to like mius one fifty everywhere. So and you know,

781
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 6: Quentin Johnson, he's having a breakout yere. He's the most

782
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 6: likely Chargers pass catcher to score here, but his markets

783
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 6: all the way down to plus one fifty. I think

784
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 6: the guy to invests in now is Gatson, who you know,

785
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 6: he's a fourth or fifth round pick, but he gives

786
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 6: me Darren Waller vibes he always has, so I think

787
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 6: he's who they intend to be their pass catching tight end,

788
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,919
Speaker 6: you know, long term, and ever since Will Disney went out,

789
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 6: he has been operating as the pass catching tight end.

790
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 6: So we'll see what happens if Disney returns this week.

791
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 6: I'm guessing Conklin will be the odd man out. But

792
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 6: if not, you know, they'll make Gatson a healthy scratch.

793
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 6: Like he's either going to be a healthy scratch or

794
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 6: the lead pass catching tight end, nothing in between, because

795
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 6: he doesn't really provide much else. So I think we're

796
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 6: kind of safe here in that aspect. So give me

797
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 6: Gats in the second at plus two to eighty here.

798
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we kind of.

799
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 5: I guess we could get Tucker Fisk as the healthy

800
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 5: scratch too, but uh, he's he's like more of a

801
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 5: special teams blocker type, and I agree, I think he

802
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 5: might have a role regardless because you still have some

803
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 5: other injuries there. But yeah, I mean, Quentin Johnston's it's

804
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 5: just ridiculous at this point. I hope it's I hope

805
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 5: it's not him again. I mean, I don't hope that,

806
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 5: but I hope it. I hope your guys get into

807
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 5: because he's just been hogging all the scores. We love Guds.

808
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 5: Then all right, we're gonna get into our primetime games

809
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 5: before we continue.

810
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 4: Don't forget to sign up for Action Pro for real time.

811
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 5: Piglerts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joe GLANMP, myself, and

812
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 5: our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access our

813
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 5: pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

814
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 5: Just go to Action network dot com slash pro and

815
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 5: get twenty dollars off the annual price with promo code

816
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 5: Pod twenty.

817
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 4: That's Pod two zero.

818
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 5: Don't miss out on the best bets at the best prices.

819
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 5: Visit Action Network dot com slash pro and use promo

820
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 5: code Pod two zero to get twenty dollars off a

821
00:37:55,760 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 5: year of Action Pro. Before we get into sunning game

822
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 5: Monday night, we've been having fun with the Parway Express

823
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 5: account in the free award winning Actually Network got So

824
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 5: let's make a quick partway of our top three favorite

825
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 5: Anytime Touchdown picks from the Sunday after Noon Swit. This

826
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 5: is our favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown Parway presented by DraftKings

827
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 5: Sean Kernery, You're at first.

828
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 4: Who you got?

829
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 6: I'm gonna go with my elik Ioman or plus four

830
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 6: twenty one. I think that's a good price. I'll go

831
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 6: with him.

832
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: Jim.

833
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Allie Gordon to get a touchdown

834
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: on that Panthers defense, he's around plus three twenty five.

835
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 5: All right, Well, you guys got plus money, So I'm

836
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 5: just gonna go with some chalk here to kind of

837
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 5: bounce it out.

838
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 4: We need to go Johnson Taylor.

839
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's go Jonathan Taylor minus two twenty five.

840
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 4: Are you parway?

841
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 5: Iomn Or at plus four twenty Gordon at plus three

842
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 5: twenty five and Taylor at minus two to twenty five

843
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 5: on DraftKings and you get plus twenty four forty eight.

844
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 5: It's about twenty four and a half two to one

845
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 5: on DraftKings. That was a favorite anytime touchdown parlay presented

846
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 5: by Draftings. All Right, Sunday Night Football Patriots at Bill's

847
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 5: divisional matchup. Kurder is a guy I know you're gonna

848
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 5: give out. We talked about him on a fantasy flex.

849
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 5: Why do you like him in this spot?

850
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm gonna go James Cook here at minus one five.

851
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 6: I have zero shame with this. I'm actually showing some

852
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 6: slight value. But I know you both of you guys,

853
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 6: we've talked off the side just how annoying it is

854
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 6: that he just keeps scoring. I'm not projecting against it here,

855
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 6: Ray but we have talked about just mainly projecting him

856
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 6: to score at this point. So I figured since we're

857
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 6: since we're putting it, I'll be the anchor on this.

858
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 6: Since we're putting a parlay together, I like it. I

859
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 6: probably wouldn't bet it straight up again. Minus one fifty

860
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 6: five for a guy that should technically see some touchdown

861
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 6: regression at some point isn't a great bet. But I mean,

862
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,439
Speaker 6: he's in one of the top scoring offenses in the lead. Yes,

863
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 6: he's gonna lose some touchdowns to Josh Allen in the

864
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 6: red zone, but there's plenty of chances so Cook typically

865
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 6: does end up getting a score. Plus he's seeing such

866
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 6: a big workload Rayboughn.

867
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 3: You've mentioned this. They're just unleashing him after this contract.

868
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 3: They're not mixing in Ray Davis as much. Ray Davis

869
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 3: is essentially the backup kicker right now. He's not even

870
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 3: the backup running back.

871
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:28,399
Speaker 5: He just watching from the week where's milk Carton out?

872
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,240
Speaker 6: I think he's the backup kicker. I'm almost half serious,

873
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 6: because you know Bass is hurt. They got Prader there,

874
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 6: Uh you know, if Prader goes down, Ray Davis is

875
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 6: their kicker.

876
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 3: So that's my only theory. I could think ud.

877
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:46,240
Speaker 4: Davis his name should be Bass because it's b asked, that's.

878
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 6: What d Yeah, exactly, So I mean Ray Davis. He's

879
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 6: on a milk carton. This is the type of game

880
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 6: where James Cook is going to see max workload.

881
00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me Cook minus one fifty five, yo.

882
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 4: What you got?

883
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna go with Stefan Diggs. And just

884
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 2: to clarify for some people that I've seen post on social,

885
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: this is not a revenge game. He played against the

886
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 2: Bills last season with the Texans. There were people were like, man,

887
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 2: he's going They're gonna go up against the Bill's revenge spot.

888
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 2: It's like, no, no, no, I just want to take him

889
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: because I like his odds. He's around plus two to sixty,

890
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 2: and I think he's gonna have a decent matchup because, honestly,

891
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 2: when you look at Christian Benford in the way that

892
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: he's been playing so far this year, getting burned quite

893
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: a bit up burned by Crystal Lobby here at the

894
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: end of the game as well. So I think Stefan Diggs,

895
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 2: even though he hasn't scored a touchdown yet this year,

896
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: he is still, you know, playing the majority of snaps,

897
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: running the majority of routes. So I think this is

898
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 2: a matchup where he can win. So I'll take it

899
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: at plus two to sixty.

900
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,360
Speaker 5: And I gotta go with Dawson Knox at yeah, six

901
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 5: to one.

902
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 4: Now, Dawson Knox came into the year.

903
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 5: I think we've were talking about expected Kincaid's touchdowns here

904
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 5: to go up because Josh said he missed him a

905
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 5: ton last year in the red zone. However, looking at

906
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 5: their usage last week, Knox all six of the red

907
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 5: zone routes KAKA zero for this Buffalo Bill offense, and

908
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 5: that spells Knox touchdowns. So give me Knox at six

909
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 5: to one. In this spot, we saw last week the

910
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 5: New England Patriots going up against the Carolina Panthers who

911
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 5: scored for Carolina Tommy Trumble and Mitchell Evan, so he

912
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 5: had both the top two tight ends. James Mitchell came

913
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 5: from the dead to get two recepts. I mean, Kurner

914
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 5: talk about a tail outcome. James Mitchell caught two balls

915
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 5: for seventeen yards last week as the third tight end.

916
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 5: So I think this is a really good spot for Knox,

917
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 5: who technically is the backup tight end, but in the

918
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 5: red zone, looks like he's going to be that lead

919
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 5: tight end. So we've hit on Jackson Hawes on this show.

920
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 5: I don't know if we've hit on Kcate or not,

921
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 5: but I know he've hit on Hawes. So we're going

922
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 5: with NOx here. These odds are ridiculous six to one,

923
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 5: well under priced.

924
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 4: I love him in this spot. You can partway these

925
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: all together at DraftKings.

926
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 5: You get about a thirty six and a half to

927
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 5: one parway with Cook anytime touchdown, Digs anytime touchdown, and

928
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 5: Dawson Knox anytime touchdown for the Sunday night matchup between

929
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 5: the New England Patriots and the.

930
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 4: Buffalo Bills Monday Night. Another good one.

931
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 5: Jacksonville, Kansas City Kerner. I'm sitting here feeling good about

932
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 5: my Jaguars to win the division. It just got to

933
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 5: see some more cult stumbledge. Maybe not feeling is good

934
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 5: about my Chiefs super Bowl ticket? Which team you're looking

935
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 5: at for a touchdown scorer in this spot?

936
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 6: Chief super Bowl should be fine. You know they're gonna,

937
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 6: you know, eventually make the playoff. Yeah, I'm buy him

938
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,959
Speaker 6: at Yeah, I am going to go with the Chiefs

939
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 6: player here Brishard Smith at plus four to seventy five.

940
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 6: You know, we finally saw him start to get more

941
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 6: work last week. Caught three balls for twenty seven yards.

942
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 6: They keep saying they want to get him even more involved,

943
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 6: probably an expensive Isaiah Pacheco. I think that experiment might

944
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 6: be over good news.

945
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 4: I got is it is? It isn't Chris Rodriguez Junior.

946
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 5: All we wanted Isaiah, for Checko to be like, come in,

947
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 5: you know, get some early work. Just run over people, score,

948
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 5: score a touchdown early in the game.

949
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 4: Short like that. He's everything we wanted for Checko to be.

950
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: You know.

951
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 6: The thing with the thing with Smith, I know you

952
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 6: love him too, ray Baugh, but Smith Smith can win downfield,

953
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 6: like he plays like a ride receiver at times. So

954
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 6: I think he could catch a long one if needed.

955
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 6: But I think he's an excellent pass catching back, and

956
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 6: they really haven't had one since Jerck McKinnon, so they've been,

957
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 6: you know, lacking this in their offense the past couple

958
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 6: of seasons. Plus you know, you know, allowing Mahomes a

959
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 6: check down will prevent him from scrambling as much I

960
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 6: know he's been scrambling at such a high rate, they

961
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 6: probably don't want that, you know, all season, So Smith

962
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 6: could be the guy that they kind of limit Mahomes scrambles.

963
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 6: But I think he's gonna play a ton more this week.

964
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 6: They've already hinted at that. So yeah, give me Smith

965
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 6: the rookie at plus four seventy five.

966
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 4: I j where you going and how is his hair?

967
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 2: Well, I would definitely give Trevor Lawrence this. He definitely

968
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 2: has the nicest hair from all quarterbacks. Definitely nicer than

969
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: mine for sure. But yeah, at the same time, very nice.

970
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: Odds around plus four to fifty to score a touchdown

971
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 2: in this game. And if Liam Cohen and the coach

972
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: speak finally comes through after four weeks of we're going

973
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 2: to implement the push push, this is the guy to

974
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 2: do it. I mean, he's got the physicality in the

975
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 2: statue to be able to pull this off. And frankly,

976
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 2: I'm still not really sold on Travis Atien. Like maybe

977
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: I'm wrong, maybe, like you know, depending on a fantasy

978
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 2: rank standpoint, I just still don't love him as like

979
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: a three down RB one type of back. So I

980
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 2: do think if they get inside the five yard line,

981
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: I think Trevor Lawrence at this price is pretty good

982
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 2: at plus four to fifty to score on a defense

983
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 2: that frankly hasn't looked very good at stopping quarterbacks and

984
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 2: rushing so far this year. Justin Herbert had some success.

985
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 2: Lamar was having success before he got hurt, you know.

986
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: So anyway, just the point is that Trevor Lawrence, I

987
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 2: think at this price is where you want to grab

988
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: him anything over to one.

989
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: Yeah.

990
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,720
Speaker 5: I still been waiting for that that score for Lawrence

991
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 5: down in there, but I think it's coming because I mean,

992
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 5: probably he probably better off not uncorking some of those

993
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 5: red zone passes.

994
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: So the turnover where he plays is just it's mind

995
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: boggling to watch. So and I think the other thing

996
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 2: too with him is that we've seen it in the past.

997
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: He has a little bit of upside even for two

998
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns if you're wanting to get real spicy.

999
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so I love that one.

1000
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 5: This is not going to be as correlated, but I

1001
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 5: think I think it's gonna happen sooner or later. I'm

1002
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 5: going Travis Hunter at plus two seventy five. Now with

1003
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 5: kind of raised my eyebrow with about Hunter heading into

1004
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 5: this game, which Monday night primetime game. Wien Cone getting

1005
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 5: called out for all types of things last week still

1006
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 5: wins the game. Now you're at home, Travis Hunter only

1007
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 5: played wide receiver in the second half of that Niner

1008
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 5: game last week.

1009
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 4: He asked him why.

1010
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,280
Speaker 5: He said, due to some personal in house decisions. Not personnel,

1011
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 5: but personal in house decisions. Owned an offensive guy Sean

1012
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 5: coming into the year. I know we talked about you

1013
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 5: figure that at some point it would kind of even

1014
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 5: out to more offensive snaps defensive. I think he's played

1015
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 5: a lot more than we expected. But in this spot,

1016
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 5: I'm looking for Hunter to score here. He was in

1017
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 5: on all of their red zone passes a week ago,

1018
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 5: So second half all wide receiver. A guy that's still

1019
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 5: gonna be in there in the red zone if it's

1020
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 5: not Lawrence. I think, you know, Hunter starts to get

1021
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 5: going here. They can't just keep throwing a Parker Washington

1022
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 5: and Diami Brown forever down. At some point they just

1023
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 5: got to play it a little more straight up and

1024
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 5: give the goal a Hunter. So we started to see

1025
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 5: a little mini breakout last week for a Hunters, So

1026
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: I hope I think he keeps it going. This is

1027
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 5: the time of year where I feel like any rookies

1028
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 5: who haven't scored, you kind of kind of just keep

1029
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 5: hammering them home.

1030
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:47,919
Speaker 4: Because they're gonna get in sooner or later.

1031
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 5: That's you know, once you get into five games, even

1032
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 5: got any full time player, you usually expect them to

1033
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 5: score a third of their game. So now there were

1034
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 5: in week five guys that haven't scored, you're gonna start

1035
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 5: seeing more of that.

1036
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 4: So this is a juicy parway here Bishard Smith, Trevor Lawrence,

1037
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 4: Travis Hunter one forty four to one.

1038
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 6: Uh.

1039
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 5: You can get those parlay onds, So that's a nice

1040
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 5: little juice you want to close out the week. As

1041
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 5: I mentioned, we'll add these anytime touchdown partways to the

1042
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 5: parlay Express account in the Action App to go follow

1043
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 5: parlay Express if you have not already, have some fun

1044
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 5: with us on some of these longer shots and parways.

1045
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 5: While you're looking at Parway Express in the Action App,

1046
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 5: be sure to sign up for Action Pro. It's the

1047
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 5: only way for you to get the best bets at

1048
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:35,240
Speaker 5: the best prices with immediate notifications when Action Experts post

1049
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,400
Speaker 5: their picks. You can get twenty dollars off right now

1050
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1051
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Speaker 5: when you sign up for one year of Action Pro

1052
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 5: that is going to do it for NFL Week five

1053
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 5: Touchdown Show presented by DraftKings made thanks to Sean Kerner

1054
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 5: Joe Blant for joining me. If you want to tail

1055
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 5: some of the touchdown bets we discussed today, find a

1056
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 5: quick slip link in the podcast and video description, or

1057
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 5: visit actionnetwork dot com. Bet now, and don't forget if

1058
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 5: you're on Twitter x whatever you're calling it, we have

1059
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 5: a great new feature. If you see a bet from

1060
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:09,439
Speaker 5: any of your favorite action experts or anyone one game

1061
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 5: with Twitter, you can now tag at playbook and tell

1062
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,840
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1063
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 4: Of your choice.

1064
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:19,240
Speaker 5: It will build it out for you with a quick

1065
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,200
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1066
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 5: check that out. It's Playbook on Twitter just at Playbook.

1067
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 5: It's a great feature. And make sure to subscribe to

1068
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast so you don't miss another episode

1069
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 5: all season long. I'm here at Stucky breaking down the

1070
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 5: six pack as far as the against the spread sides

1071
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 5: and totals we like. On Wednesdays as well, you can

1072
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 5: find Kerner on X at the Underscore odds maker, Jill

1073
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 5: is at G doub five thousand DAWG.

1074
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 4: And I am at Chris Raybon.

1075
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:52,240
Speaker 5: We're at those same handles on the free award winning

1076
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 5: Action Network app Go download it until week six.

1077
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 4: Studios the sutrading to subduing the sub students the same

1078
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 4: stuprading