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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: It is my understanding that the Office of Budget Responsibilities

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Speaker 2: Economic and Financial Outlook was released on their website before

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Speaker 2: this statement.

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Speaker 3: This is deeply.

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Speaker 2: Disappointing and a serious error.

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Speaker 3: On their parts.

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Speaker 4: That was the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Hello, I'm Caroline Hepke,

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Speaker 4: I'm you and.

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Speaker 1: Pots Hello and welcome to this Bloomberg UK Budget podcast special. Now.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twelve, it was the omni Shambles. In twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, it was that disastrous mini budget. Well, maybe

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Speaker 1: this year's budget will become known as the pre release

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Speaker 1: shambles after the economic analysis of the budget and all

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Speaker 1: of the headline tax measures were posted online by accident

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Speaker 1: on the obi's website more than thirty minutes ahead of

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Speaker 1: Rachel Reavey's speech, a chaostic disruption for which the OBR

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Speaker 1: had to swiftly apologize.

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Speaker 4: Well, in a moment, we're going to bring you reaction

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Speaker 4: to the budget itself from our political editor Alex Wickham,

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Speaker 4: as well as analysis from Bloomberg opinion writers Marcus Ashworth

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Speaker 4: and Rosa Prince. We'll dig into the numbers in the

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Speaker 4: way that only Bloomberg can do. With our UK chief

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Speaker 4: economist Dan Hanson.

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Speaker 1: Will of course discuss that unprecedented situation which saw the

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Speaker 1: Chancellor's carefully choreographed speech front run, leaving markets scrambling to

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Speaker 1: react in just a moment and Caroline in terms of

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Speaker 1: announcements though made by Rachel Reeves and before that at

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Speaker 1: the OBR, there was a lot, wasn't there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, huge number of headlines. So the Chancellor is raising

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Speaker 4: taxes by nearly thirty billion pounds and keeping income tax

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Speaker 4: thresholds frozen for longer. She's lowering the cash portion of

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Speaker 4: iSER tax free savings allowances and other considerable measure There'll

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Speaker 4: also be a tax on homes worth more than two

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Speaker 4: million pounds from twenty twenty eight. Then there's the increased

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Speaker 4: tax on dividends, property and savings. Also the removal of

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Speaker 4: the two child benefit cap for universal Credit, which is

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Speaker 4: a type of benefit. There's a mileage tax for electric vehicles,

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Speaker 4: and then there are also changes a reduction to the

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Speaker 4: benefits that you get from sacrificing some of for your

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Speaker 4: salary into pensions, a whole load of different tax changes.

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Speaker 4: Here's the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves just giving her take and

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Speaker 4: some of the measures that she outlined.

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Speaker 2: This labor government is changing our country in the base

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Speaker 2: of challenges on our productivity. I will grow our economy

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Speaker 2: through stability, investment and reform. I've met my fiscal rules

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Speaker 2: and built our economic resilience for the future. I have

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Speaker 2: asked everyone to contribute yes for the security of our

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Speaker 2: country and the brightness of its future. But I have

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Speaker 2: kept that contribution as low.

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Speaker 3: As possible by reforming.

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Speaker 2: Our tax system, making it fairer.

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Speaker 3: And stronger for the future.

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Speaker 2: I have protected our NHS, maintaining public investment and having

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Speaker 2: efficiency in government spending. I've taken action on our broken

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Speaker 2: welfare system, routie out waste and lifting children.

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Speaker 3: Out of poverty. And I have cut the cost of

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Speaker 3: living with.

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Speaker 2: Money off bills and prices frozen, all while keeping every

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Speaker 2: single one of our Manifesto commitments.

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Speaker 4: So that was the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. The opposition Conservative

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Speaker 4: leader Kemmy Baynock then gave a response after that speech

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Speaker 4: from Rachel Reeves that lasted well over an hour. It

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Speaker 4: was a hard hitting response calling for the Chancellor to resign.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's dig into the numbers now are UK Chief

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Speaker 1: economist Dan Hansen has jumped into the studio of Dan.

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Speaker 1: You've had a little bit more time than usual two

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Speaker 1: digest the figures as of all of us with the

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Speaker 1: obr's massive blunder, what did you make over all about

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Speaker 1: with the budget and that particularly that extra headroom we've

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Speaker 1: got from the Chancellor.

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Speaker 5: In of itself, it's good news, isn't it. Twenty two

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Speaker 5: billion pounds is more than nine point nine billion pounds,

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Speaker 5: so taking up face value, it is good news. I

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Speaker 5: think what what I'm looking at and what we've been

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Speaker 5: looking at sort of as we're trying to sort of

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Speaker 5: take on board the OBR document, we were absolutely not

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Speaker 5: ready for that whatsoever. But I think we're sort of

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Speaker 5: back on track now that a lot of the pain

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Speaker 5: is backloaded, so the tax rises are backloaded in the

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Speaker 5: near term, there's actually a little fiscal giveaway which lower

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Speaker 5: CPI inflation through a feel duty freeze and freezing energy bills.

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Speaker 5: All of that was pretty much expected, and I think

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Speaker 5: the backloading was probably expected as well. And the question

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Speaker 5: that comes from delaying tax increases or pushing the pain

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Speaker 5: into the latter years of the parliament, when you're thinking

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Speaker 5: of it from a political perspective, is will it actually

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Speaker 5: be delivered, and so there's a question you've got this

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Speaker 5: sort of these two forces weighing on the UK's physcal

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Speaker 5: credibility in this budget. On the one hand, you've got

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Speaker 5: more headroom. We've all been asking for that, wanting that,

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Speaker 5: the markets have been wanting that. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 5: you've delivered it in a way that doesn't look as

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Speaker 5: credible as it could, say, had you raised, for example,

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Speaker 5: the basic rate of income tax or something like that.

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Speaker 5: So I mean, just on the point of why we

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Speaker 5: got that league a couple of weeks ago, it's quite

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Speaker 5: clear now looking at the OBR forecast why. It's because

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Speaker 5: they handed Reeves a much better than expected I think

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Speaker 5: fiscal forecast. So the fiscal deterioration was not that large.

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Speaker 5: It was about six billion pounds at the end of

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Speaker 5: the forecast thirteen billion pounds if you take into account

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Speaker 5: the policy U turn, so that is about half what

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Speaker 5: people were expecting. So she has been able to bring

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Speaker 5: this headroom up, probably by doing a little bit less

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Speaker 5: than she feared she might, which is why we've had

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Speaker 5: that U turn on income tax.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, taxes overall though are going to go buys almost

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Speaker 4: thirty billion pound as you say, there will be more

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Speaker 4: leeway for the chancellor twenty two billion pounds in terms

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Speaker 4: of the fiscal headroom. Growth has been downgraded by the OBR,

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Speaker 4: Inflation a little bit higher overall. Is it going to

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Speaker 4: end up being a credible budget, one that sticks, one

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Speaker 4: that can be delivered? I know that's quite a big

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Speaker 4: thought in terms of how this budget is going to

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Speaker 4: be digested by investors.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think I think if the I mean,

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Speaker 5: let's just put aside the fact that the forecast got

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Speaker 5: published completely at the wrong time. But if you look

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Speaker 5: at the shape of the obr's forecast now, I would

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Speaker 5: say it looks much more realistic than it did, say

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Speaker 5: in March, or has done in past forecasts. So that's

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Speaker 5: a tick in the obr's box. Obviously, the pre relelye

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Speaker 5: or the release of it early is a is a big,

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Speaker 5: a big error, and that'll be the focus. But actually,

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Speaker 5: if you look at the shape of the forecast, they've

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Speaker 5: up there, They've lowered their growth forecast, they've up their

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Speaker 5: inflation forecasts slightly, and that's due to stronger wage growth.

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Speaker 5: We thought that was going to be the case that

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Speaker 5: they would do something like that, So all of those

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Speaker 5: things taken together. If I look at their forecast now,

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Speaker 5: and if you look at it relative to the consensus forecast.

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Speaker 5: For example, our react on the terminal has a chart

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Speaker 5: showing this, you know they're right close to consensus now.

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Speaker 5: They're not outside of the basically the band of all

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Speaker 5: external forecasters, right at the top of the range, which

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Speaker 5: is just not the right place to be as a

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Speaker 5: fiscal forecaster. Where the credibility question comes in is the

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Speaker 5: policy response to that, Because as I say, the fiscal

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Speaker 5: deterioration wasn't quite as bad as first thought. Reads has

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Speaker 5: been able to do the sort of stealth tax approach,

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Speaker 5: if you like, by delaying the pain. So I think

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Speaker 5: there's probably on the credibility as I say, setting aside

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Speaker 5: the early release of the forecast, on the credibility front,

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Speaker 5: looking at the obr's forecast, it looks more realistic. That's

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Speaker 5: a big tick. But as I say, there are question

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Speaker 5: marks I think at least about about the policy package

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Speaker 5: in terms of will it actually be delivered with an

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Speaker 5: election on the horizon or you know, August twenty twenty nine,

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Speaker 5: it's due by then, a lot of these policies will

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Speaker 5: be biting at that point, so there's a real question

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Speaker 5: mark there, so.

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Speaker 1: It concerns about the credibility of the numbers. I just

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Speaker 1: wanted to just ask you about what the situation was

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Speaker 1: like where you're sitting in the newsroom when these numbers

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Speaker 1: came through. How much of a shot was it to you,

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Speaker 1: and how did you deal with it?

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Speaker 5: Well, I used to I mean the OBR, I said

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Speaker 5: to Anna Edwards on television, as this sort of happened.

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Speaker 5: This has never happened before. The OBIS are very secretive organization,

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Speaker 5: They're very good at this sort of thing. There's never

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Speaker 5: a leak. We were ready to obviously respond to Rees's

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Speaker 5: speech rather than the OBR document, which has got so

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Speaker 5: many details in it, so it's a very different sort

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Speaker 5: of test of your mental acumen. The speech sort of

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Speaker 5: delivers high level numbers and you can try and piece

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Speaker 5: something together. The OBR document doesn't lie about the numbers

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Speaker 5: because it's all there in black and black and blue

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Speaker 5: and a little bit of white.

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Speaker 1: So it.

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Speaker 3: Was a bit of a shock.

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Speaker 5: As I said at the start, we feel like we're

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Speaker 5: just about back on track now, but we're going to

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Speaker 5: be as everyone will be digesting this this afternoon. I

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Speaker 5: think you know, if I'm going to say the high

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Speaker 5: level high level points are it's probably about as expected.

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Speaker 5: She boosted the head room, perhaps a little bit more

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Speaker 5: than expected. She lowered CPI inflation in the near term.

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Speaker 5: We thought she'd do that, and she still laid the

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Speaker 5: pain with the tax measures. And that seems pretty much

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Speaker 5: what the consensus was going into the going into it,

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Speaker 5: and you've seen from the market reaction hasn't been huge,

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Speaker 5: so that you know, and if anything has been marginally positive, okay, but.

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Speaker 4: It was certainly confused and the Office of Budget Responsibility

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Speaker 4: had to apologize for releasing the data early, well before

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Speaker 4: the Chancellor even stood up, and so that was quite

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Speaker 4: a scramble in some fusion really in markets. Thank you

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Speaker 4: so much, Dad for being with us. Bloomberg's UK Chief economist,

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Speaker 4: Dan Hanson my thanks to you. Now let's bring in

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Speaker 4: the rest of our top team, our Bloomberg Budget Voices,

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Speaker 4: our political editor Alex Wickham from Bloomberg Opinion, our UK

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Speaker 4: commentator Rosa Prince, and last but not least, Marcus Ashworth,

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Speaker 4: who covers European markets for Bloomberg Opillion. Alex Wickham, straight

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Speaker 4: to you, I was reading what you were putting out

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Speaker 4: as we were all watching charts of Rachel rees You

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Speaker 4: talked about it being chaotic at the beginning with the

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Speaker 4: release of the OBR figures early. What did you make

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Speaker 4: overall of the budget.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's always a nightmare when you're impressibonche getting your

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Speaker 6: lunch and your editor rings humans get back to your

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Speaker 6: desk immediately. Yeah, that was one of those things. I mean, look,

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Speaker 6: there are some winners from this budget. It may be

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Speaker 6: enough to get Rachel Reeves and Kissed Arma through the day,

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Speaker 6: through the week, which is their main ask at the minute.

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Speaker 6: That's how badly things have been going for them. There

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Speaker 6: is that higher than expected HEAVEM twenty two billion, which

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Speaker 6: so far, so far seems to have kept markets largely calm.

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Speaker 6: There is stuff in there for Labour MPs to waive

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Speaker 6: their papers in the Commons Chamber in delight over things

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Speaker 6: like removing the two child benefit cap, lifting hundreds of

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Speaker 6: thousands of children out of poverty. There are wins for

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Speaker 6: pensioners with the state pension going up, for low earners

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Speaker 6: with the minimum wage going up. Those are Labour policies

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Speaker 6: that will keep Labour's core vote happy. But there is

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Speaker 6: so much bad news in there that will over the

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Speaker 6: coming days leave investors and labour MPs and voters all

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Speaker 6: wondering about the future for Britain. Really, when you see

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Speaker 6: living standards rising more slowly than expected, that's not good news.

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Speaker 6: When living standards are in grasing living standards. Raising living

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Speaker 6: standards are the core aim of this government, along with

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Speaker 6: economic growth, which is downgraded, the tax burden hitting an

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Speaker 6: all time high, as the welfare bill still soares. There

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Speaker 6: are lots of painful things in this budget that will

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Speaker 6: make people doubt over the coming days and weeks whether

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Speaker 6: this government has the right plan for the future.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you to dig into some of

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Speaker 1: the detail of this because we've had so many kites.

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Speaker 1: It kind of feels like every kite in the kite

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Speaker 1: shop was sort of released over the over the last

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Speaker 1: few months.

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Speaker 3: Just tell us that were there.

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Speaker 1: Any nasty surprises, was anything that we weren't expecting in

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Speaker 1: this budget? What do you think? What do you think

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Speaker 1: more the political narrative be over the coming weeks as

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Speaker 1: we digest this.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I mean I'm sure over the next hours

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Speaker 7: and days people will be going through the figures and

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Speaker 7: finding out if there are any sort of niche surprises.

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Speaker 7: But I think it's more rather than of the little surprises.

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Speaker 7: I think it's more the kind of bald fact which

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Speaker 7: faces you when you actually look at the overall budget

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Speaker 7: of the tax burden going up. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 7: we are now on a trajectory where we're at thirty percents,

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Speaker 7: really high, you know, historically high levels. And I think that,

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Speaker 7: as Alex said, that's something which we'll get we'll move

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Speaker 7: on from this budget will kind of to somecent forget

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Speaker 7: about all the chaos and the or but that will

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Speaker 7: be something that day in day out, will will be

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Speaker 7: felt in voters pockets now as they think about spring

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Speaker 7: elections coming up further down line a few years time

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Speaker 7: of general election. I think that will have a lasting impact.

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Speaker 4: Okay, well, the Chances are saying I'm asking everyone to

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Speaker 4: make a contribution. That's her view, the opposition leader saying

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Speaker 4: it's time for the Chances to resign, that she should go.

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Speaker 4: It did feel very stark, and I think actually some

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Speaker 4: of the issues for the UK that have been so

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Speaker 4: pent up really emerged in this budget, didn't they Marcus.

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Speaker 4: It's not something that investors were in much doubt about.

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Speaker 4: They know this, how are they going to react to it?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 8: I think short term, me am I going to relief Roley.

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Speaker 8: This is not quite a defeat snatch from the jaws

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Speaker 8: of victory, because the OBR have given her a much nicer,

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Speaker 8: happier layout than she could have had, and certainly she

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Speaker 8: was trailing. I don't know what that's all about, but

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Speaker 8: she'd have known about this by the end of October.

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Speaker 8: So some very strange politics going on. That's the overall

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Speaker 8: level of competence, which initially why guilt yields rose. However,

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Speaker 8: the guilt yield, particularly long end, is falling as it

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Speaker 8: should do. It should fall a lot more. She may

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Speaker 8: not get as big a benefits she could and could

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Speaker 8: have out of this budget, so long end guilt supplies falling,

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Speaker 8: which is good news, I guess overall for the influence

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Speaker 8: of that dead interest bill, which is one of the

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Speaker 8: big killers. So I think, you know, this isn't as

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Speaker 8: bad as it could have been. A lot of it

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Speaker 8: is backloaded, and this is the real problem. No one's

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Speaker 8: going to quite believe that she is going to raise

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Speaker 8: these taxes. Certainly things like this mansion tax, the salary

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Speaker 8: sacrifice stuff. None of it makes much sense. I don't

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Speaker 8: think it raised very much. And it's a double hit

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Speaker 8: on employers. She's hitting landlords again, she's hitting savers at

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Speaker 8: dividend payments for you know, entrepreneurs. This is anti growth

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Speaker 8: and that's where the gawngrade of ovr's growth forecast is worrying.

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Speaker 8: And an upgrade in their inflation forecasts, they're only zero

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Speaker 8: point three reduction CPI will that give Governor Andrew Bailey

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Speaker 8: a chance to cut in December? Marginal I think she

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Speaker 8: should have been a bit more aggressive on the inflation,

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Speaker 8: didn't get that bank of him and rate cut, possibly

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Speaker 8: another one again in February, get the debt interest bill down.

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Speaker 8: Guilty altill have loved it. So she could have done better,

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Speaker 8: but she could have done also a lot worse.

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Speaker 1: Alex, I want to ask you about the thing which

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Speaker 1: got the biggest cheer from the chance that one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest spending commands, probably biggest spanding commitment was scrapping

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Speaker 1: the two child cap. Now, Kemmy Baidenock was pretty robust

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Speaker 1: on this. She says it was a budget for benefits.

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Speaker 1: Street says, hiking taxes to pay for welfare. I just

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Speaker 1: wanted to clean this is please labor backventures, but it

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Speaker 1: doesn't affit many people. It's a lot of money for

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Speaker 1: people who want benefits, some of whom are working in fairness.

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Speaker 1: How is this going to go down politically? Is there

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Speaker 1: a dangers to this that it may actually end up

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Speaker 1: being a political loser rather than the political winner.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, And you know, I just want to read you

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Speaker 6: that this really quite astonishing statistic that over the next

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Speaker 6: five years the OBR is forecasting welfare spending in Britain

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Speaker 6: will rise by seven and three billion pounds to four

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Speaker 6: hundred and six billion pounds. And you know it is

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Speaker 6: a question is kemmy Baidino was making out there a

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Speaker 6: question of what does labor want this country to look like?

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Speaker 6: Does it want it to be a pro gross boosting

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Speaker 6: productivity competitive country, as she made out in the election

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Speaker 6: and has done at every opportunity up until she came

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Speaker 6: under extreme political pressure from her own party, or does

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Speaker 6: it want it to be a high tax country with

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Speaker 6: a large welfare state and more typically in the labor mold.

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Speaker 6: And what kiss Arma and Rachel Rude appear to have

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Speaker 6: done is thrown off some of those pro gross gross

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Speaker 6: being the number one mission living you know, all of

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Speaker 6: that stuff that they used to say towards a more

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Speaker 6: typical labor you know, slated policies that may please the part,

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Speaker 6: but you have to wonder, you know, why have they

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Speaker 6: done that? Have they done it because the public finances

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Speaker 6: are in much of a better state. Well, I think

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Speaker 6: it's mainly about politics, isn't it. They saw the danger

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Speaker 6: that they were facing and they basically to be blunt

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Speaker 6: tilted to the left. And again that may be something

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Speaker 6: that investors look at with skepticism. Is it even enough

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Speaker 6: to get labor MPs on side where they might decide

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Speaker 6: that if that's the direction they want to go in,

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Speaker 6: why don't they get somebody who sort of really believes

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Speaker 6: that stuff in to do the job.

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Speaker 4: Rosa in terms of then the flip side of that,

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Speaker 4: the kind of idea of soaking the rich, of the

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Speaker 4: wealth tax, of the tax on mansions, there is a

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Speaker 4: question mark about whether these constitute wealth taxes and what level,

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Speaker 4: what gradation of rich individual or rich business person they're

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Speaker 4: going to hit, and whether that has political consequences or not.

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Speaker 4: Once you're thinking about middle classes versus wealth taxes, because

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Speaker 4: again that that's also going to be quite a big

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Speaker 4: takeaway for voters. I think surely when they look at

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Speaker 4: this budget.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if.

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Speaker 7: You ask voters, they all say, yeah, we want to

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Speaker 7: tax the rich. When you look at the receipts of

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Speaker 7: what that actually means, it's less clear that that brings

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Speaker 7: in enough to make a difference. And also, as we've

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Speaker 7: written about often at Bloomberg, the impact of the very

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Speaker 7: wealthy leaving the country, taking their money out of Britain.

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Speaker 7: And I think the message was got through to Rachel

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Speaker 7: Reason the run up to the budgets that it risks

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Speaker 7: sort of tipping over. There had been a lot of

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Speaker 7: speculation that there would be some kind of banking tax

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Speaker 7: which didn't come to fruition. She actually sort of caused

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Speaker 7: some smiles because apparently she was going around saying or

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Speaker 7: the Treasury was to the banks, well, you need to say,

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Speaker 7: this is a really good budget to make up for

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Speaker 7: the fact that I'm not taxing you. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 7: I think both on Welsh taxes and on the two

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Speaker 7: child poverty limit, it's kind of a sign of her

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Speaker 7: weakness that she's being directed on both of these huge

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Speaker 7: issues by her own backbenches, and not a very healthy

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Speaker 7: sign going forward.

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Speaker 1: The Marcus. How significant is the backloading? Backloading doing a

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Speaker 1: lot of heavy lifting. Us need to remember criticism of

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Speaker 1: Jeremy Hunt for this and other chances. But the Obi

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Speaker 1: says that borrowing over the next three years is actually

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Speaker 1: an increase by twenty one billion pounds over the next

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Speaker 1: three year is only when the threshold freezes come in

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Speaker 1: after twenty twenty eight the borrowing actually starts to fall.

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Speaker 1: What do you think markets were making of that, of

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Speaker 1: that backloading.

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Speaker 8: Well, it's in some senses they're not hitting growth as

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Speaker 8: hard earlier, they're backloading that, so it's one for the other.

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Speaker 8: So I think the real worry here, as I think,

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Speaker 8: as Alex points out, is that whether this falls apart

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Speaker 8: on the fact that this is a classic socialist tax

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Speaker 8: and spend budget, and whether or not the markets feel

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Speaker 8: that this is ruinous for growth longer run. There are

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Speaker 8: some nasty things about quite how much q is going

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Speaker 8: to cost That could be a nasty thing comes back

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Speaker 8: out adding extra sort of thirty billion on the cost

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Speaker 8: of QE twenty one billion per year going basically to

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Speaker 8: the Bank of England.

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Speaker 3: So this could fall apart.

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Speaker 8: I'm not saying it's going to but there is a

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Speaker 8: serious risk at some point that the markets will go

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Speaker 8: do you know what? This is not a competent economic

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Speaker 8: package which will deliver growth sustainably, And that the fact

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Speaker 8: that the numbers only add up by a lot of

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Speaker 8: backload and stuff in twenty eight, twenty nine thirty which

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Speaker 8: may not ever come about. We don't believe the numbers.

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Speaker 8: We can see the welfare spending coming right here, right now,

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Speaker 8: and that's the risk really. Whether or they can get

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Speaker 8: it through.

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Speaker 4: And whether that happens in three days or three months

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Speaker 4: depends on the budget. We've seen different things happen with

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Speaker 4: different budgets about how long it takes in.

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Speaker 8: It should be loving this, It's quite liking it, but

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Speaker 8: it should be absolute loving it. You should see the

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Speaker 8: guilt curve flatten. You should be expecting rate cuts coming

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Speaker 8: for sure. We're not getting that confidence yet, but so

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Speaker 8: we'll see what the final vad is. But you know,

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Speaker 8: at the moment, stop market likes that. I think everyone

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Speaker 8: wants to sound to rally, so maybe she'll get away

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Speaker 8: with it.

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Speaker 4: Alex Is Rachel reeves more or less in danger post budget.

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Speaker 6: I think Look, there was a lot of noise over

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Speaker 6: the last few weeks about Kiirs Starmer's position, in Rachel

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Speaker 6: Reeves's position, and a lot of that noise came from

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Speaker 6: number ten because they were going around turned everybody old,

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Speaker 6: kis Starmer's going to fight fight down any any leadership challenge,

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Speaker 6: and you know, daring his opponents out of the woodwork,

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Speaker 6: all of that stuff. You know, I think it is

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Speaker 6: hard to see how immediately there is a threat to

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Speaker 6: either Rachel Reeves or Kiss Starmer. As we've been talking about,

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Speaker 6: you know, so far caveat, that's so far. The markets

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Speaker 6: are okay. That's the that's the main hurdle to clear

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Speaker 6: is no adverse mark reaction. See what happens over the

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Speaker 6: coming days. Is there a tax rise or spending change

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Speaker 6: that goes wrong and emerges as can happen as we've

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Speaker 6: seen happen with previous budgets, that comes out over the

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Speaker 6: next twenty four hours, which suddenly everybody gets very upset about. Potentially,

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Speaker 6: there were so many tax risers in there, it is

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Speaker 6: quite possible that one of them looks worse than first

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Speaker 6: thought in the small print and becomes controversial. But if

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Speaker 6: I had to bet right now, I would still on

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Speaker 6: the side of we are probably going to still have

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Speaker 6: kid Starma and Rachel Reeves in post in the coming days,

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Speaker 6: weeks and months ahead.

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Speaker 1: Thanks, I'm going to put you all on the spot

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Speaker 1: with a quick fire. I want you to give you

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Speaker 1: mark's out of ten for the Chancellor's budget.

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Speaker 8: Marcus, Oh, please come to me last. I'm going to

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Speaker 8: have to give us six and a half because I

437
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:56,719
Speaker 8: think it's it compared to what we're expecting. It's a

438
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 8: lot better than perhaps it could have been. I think

439
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 8: delivery from start to finish was terrible, so I can't

440
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 8: give anything close to the higher marks than that. But

441
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 8: I think overall, she's going to get away with a

442
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 8: green ex. I think she stays in power for a

443
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 8: bit longer.

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00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 3: Rosa, Yeah, I'm in that same territory.

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00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 7: I'd say about a six, mainly because it was kind

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00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 7: of so in a funny way. The actual budget was

447
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 7: sort of drama free with everything that surrounded it that

448
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 7: I'm into my minus figures.

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00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 4: With minus I know I should we should have separated

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00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 4: it out really the actual fact and the delivery. But Alex,

451
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 4: overall budget school.

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00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 6: I'm afraid I can't give it more than a five. Look,

453
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 6: you know she's got through looks like she's got through

454
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 6: the day weeks months ahead. But really, should we not

455
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 6: want a bit more from our government than that, you know,

456
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 6: should we not want more of a plan and a

457
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 6: strategy for the economy and for the country rather than survival.

458
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 6: You know, I'm not long ago people in the government

459
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 6: were briefing me about how they wanted to do a

460
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 6: big bowl budget that was going to you know, really

461
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 6: shake up the tax code and you know, make some

462
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 6: big changes that made the country better and gave markets

463
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 6: a lot of confidence going forward about the public finances.

464
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 6: All this sort of stuff that sounded quite good. They

465
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 6: obviously decided instead to do this smagas board approach out

466
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 6: of political desperation. Yeah, maybe enough to get them through,

467
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 6: but you know, not much more than that.

468
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: So a budget to get by serling. The markets seem

469
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: to have accepted the budget. If not, you couldn't quite

470
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 1: say they've embraced it. That's our top team of Bloomberg

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00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: Budget Voices Alex Alex wickm my political editor and from

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00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. I you could commentate with Rosa Prince and

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00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: Marcus Ashworth. It covers European markets for Bloomberg Opinion.

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00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was a real day where you know, dropped

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00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 4: sandwhich is a massive rush as we got the data

476
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 4: the Obihar package landing early before the Chancellor had stood up.

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00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 4: It was a surprise. Let's see though, how voter and

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00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 4: investors actually think about this over the next few days.

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00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 4: That was our special Bloomberg coverage on the UK budget.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for listening. I'm Caroline HEPKEA and

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00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:09,479
Speaker 4: I'm new and Potts.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg