Speaker 1: Hiatz Weskasova. The Big Take is taking a break this week,
Speaker 1: so here's an episode you might have missed. Consequences are
Speaker 1: coming right quick, with missile firings in the East China
Speaker 1: see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan.
Speaker 2: In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes
Speaker 2: across the midline of the Taiwan Straight How.
Speaker 1: Would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That question
Speaker 1: is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world.
Speaker 1: President Biden said last year that the United States would
Speaker 1: consider using military force to defend Taiwan.
Speaker 3: Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan
Speaker 3: if it comes to that, Yes, you are.
Speaker 4: That's the commitment we made.
Speaker 1: That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan
Speaker 1: not as an independent entity but a part of China
Speaker 1: that will one day be united with the mainland. The
Speaker 1: terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue
Speaker 1: in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front
Speaker 1: runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice
Speaker 1: president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive party it's known
Speaker 1: as the DPP. Laia is hoping to succeed President, saying
Speaker 1: when she can't run again because of term limits. He's
Speaker 1: taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of
Speaker 1: the other candidates.
Speaker 4: We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace
Speaker 4: and prosperity. However, untier China relong states the force against Taiwan.
Speaker 4: We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to shoulder,
Speaker 4: which democracies to activity deter the straits from China.
Speaker 1: That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he
Speaker 1: recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide
Speaker 1: ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Speaker 5: That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this
Speaker 5: democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its
Speaker 5: prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 1: Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are
Speaker 1: here with me to talk about what's at stake for
Speaker 1: Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face.
Speaker 1: I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election
Speaker 1: for Taiwan's future. Cindy there's this very important presidential election
Speaker 1: coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections
Speaker 1: are important, but this one seems to have extra significance.
Speaker 1: Why are people paying so close attention to this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan
Speaker 3: these days, the first question that comes to people's mind
Speaker 3: would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 3: So the key question that everybody wants to note about
Speaker 3: Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well,
Speaker 3: China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially
Speaker 3: because Taiwan is the very important tech cub that has
Speaker 3: this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this
Speaker 3: election is especially important because it's all about war, and
Speaker 3: that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about
Speaker 3: right now. So people here are also anxious to know
Speaker 3: whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to
Speaker 3: handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can
Speaker 3: or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war.
Speaker 3: And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's
Speaker 3: presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner in most
Speaker 3: of the polls now, and if DPB wins again, it
Speaker 3: would be the first time in Taiwan that a political
Speaker 3: party could govern for a third term, and that would
Speaker 3: probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as
Speaker 3: a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong
Speaker 3: signal to China because there is a risk that China's
Speaker 3: nationalism will be so high that it could increase the
Speaker 3: chance of a war across the strait.
Speaker 1: Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chenda, is
Speaker 1: the front runner in the race, and you went to
Speaker 1: Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him.
Speaker 5: Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than
Speaker 5: the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to
Speaker 5: the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that
Speaker 5: I think I brought to it, which was I'm just
Speaker 5: going to drop into this place and I just expected
Speaker 5: there to be this cloud of China that was over everything,
Speaker 5: and I was actually kind of surprised that that's not
Speaker 5: how it felt. It felt like everyone going about their
Speaker 5: normal lives and then all of a sudden there would
Speaker 5: be reminders of that presence and I think Lie actually
Speaker 5: is a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm,
Speaker 5: mild manner, or at least that's what he wants to project.
Speaker 5: He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the
Speaker 5: Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which
Speaker 5: has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views
Speaker 5: himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as
Speaker 5: we want to talk about war and this war sentiment,
Speaker 5: and that is one of the defining elements of this
Speaker 5: I think president election, he will frame it around democracy
Speaker 5: and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with
Speaker 5: the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of.
Speaker 5: But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because
Speaker 5: he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks
Speaker 5: to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents.
Speaker 1: Cindy, What does it mean when we say that LII
Speaker 1: wants to be a continuity candidate.
Speaker 3: So Vice Persondent Lai has been known for his provocative
Speaker 3: comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public
Speaker 3: as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the
Speaker 3: impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here,
Speaker 3: So he has this kind of track record. He said
Speaker 3: many times in the past that he would be like
Speaker 3: a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that and that kind
Speaker 3: of provocative comments really worry people and worry Beijing and
Speaker 3: US as well as people are worried that he may
Speaker 3: try to change the status quo, and that's something that
Speaker 3: nobody has a stake with Taiwan would like to see.
Speaker 3: At the moment, soli Is now has a very very
Speaker 3: important task. Is he has to prove to everyone, to
Speaker 3: the US, to China and even to people in Taiwan
Speaker 3: that he is going to be a very steady pair
Speaker 3: of hands. He will not change the status quo. He
Speaker 3: has to maintain the status quo that present Thai has
Speaker 3: maintained over the past almost eight years. So we asked
Speaker 3: him during our sitdown interview with him whether there would
Speaker 3: be a romance to tell independence, whether he would consider
Speaker 3: change the name of Taiwan. So his answers to all
Speaker 3: those questions are no, there isn't going to be any change.
Speaker 3: Currently the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,
Speaker 3: and he said, because present Thai has used the name
Speaker 3: Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and
Speaker 3: that's the name he would continue to use.
Speaker 1: Joel Cindy says, people watch very carefully how LII describes Taiwan,
Speaker 1: and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone.
Speaker 1: The way Taiwan talks about itself, the way China describes
Speaker 1: Taiwan is really at the heart of this whole question.
Speaker 5: Right, And there's this status quo that a lot of
Speaker 5: the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches
Speaker 5: their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually,
Speaker 5: probably right when you read about this stuff, you got
Speaker 5: to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my
Speaker 5: interviews with La. He speaks decent English, but he actually
Speaker 5: chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically,
Speaker 5: to be super mindful of the words that were coming
Speaker 5: out of his mouth. There are a couple of times
Speaker 5: that he opted to speak in English, but I think
Speaker 5: default setting for him was in Chinese because of the
Speaker 5: importance of getting his message rights. You what the stakes
Speaker 5: really look like? Here. So what really comes down to
Speaker 5: here is Taiwan, in the eyes of Beijing is viewed
Speaker 5: as a breakaway province and under this One China policy
Speaker 5: that has become sort of the driving principle of beijing
Speaker 5: geopolitical goals, they view everything Taiwan included as part of
Speaker 5: a greater China and will be absorbed at a future date.
Speaker 5: What that future date is, no one really knows. Taiwan
Speaker 5: wants it to be never and wants this status quo
Speaker 5: to remain where they are a democratically independent sovereign entity.
Speaker 5: So that's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve
Speaker 5: this democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of
Speaker 5: its prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 3: I think status quo is really the key thing here.
Speaker 3: I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan
Speaker 3: all wants who preserve the status quo, although they may
Speaker 3: have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in
Speaker 3: Taiwan showed that at least three folds of Taiwan's population
Speaker 3: supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they
Speaker 3: don't want to unification with China either, but they want
Speaker 3: the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan
Speaker 3: cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched
Speaker 3: ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then
Speaker 3: from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a
Speaker 3: sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that
Speaker 3: China's idea that there is only one China and that's
Speaker 3: represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves
Speaker 3: the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing
Speaker 3: about the US One China policy. So even though US
Speaker 3: President Joe Biden has that four times that it would
Speaker 3: defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan
Speaker 3: as a country, so you can't really call Taiwan as
Speaker 3: a nation.
Speaker 5: I think the other thing to keep in mind there
Speaker 5: is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on
Speaker 5: a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking,
Speaker 5: and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue
Speaker 5: to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the
Speaker 5: middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired
Speaker 5: missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in
Speaker 5: response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago.
Speaker 5: So all of these things sort of challenged the status
Speaker 5: quo and the moment that Taiwan or the US were
Speaker 5: to respond in a way that might be a little
Speaker 5: too impulsive. For instance, Beijing will use that as an
Speaker 5: indication of change the status quote and maybe escalate the situation.
Speaker 1: Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support
Speaker 1: it gets from the rest of the world.
Speaker 5: Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly?
Speaker 4: I think so. I think so because Taiwan security is
Speaker 4: a global yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific
Speaker 4: region benefit all the country.
Speaker 5: I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a
Speaker 5: situation Taiwan's in With its diplomatic relationships around the world.
Speaker 5: There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them,
Speaker 5: thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally,
Speaker 5: but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's
Speaker 5: flipped a couple of them, and right now actually Vice
Speaker 5: President Lie is in transit through the US to visit
Speaker 5: an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier
Speaker 5: of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or
Speaker 5: anywhere in Taiwan, beef noodle soup is one of the
Speaker 5: dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in
Speaker 5: beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a
Speaker 5: sense of what they're going to talk about when live
Speaker 5: shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between
Speaker 5: Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US,
Speaker 5: he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him
Speaker 5: in the US. He has to transit through here to
Speaker 5: get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on
Speaker 5: the way and then he goes through San Francisco on
Speaker 5: the way back. And that's all not to inflame China.
Speaker 5: So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes
Speaker 5: down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official
Speaker 5: allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones.
Speaker 5: And part of what the current administration President Si with
Speaker 5: Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean
Speaker 5: into this informal, unofficial frame of like minded democracies they'll
Speaker 5: call it. So Japan is a huge part of that,
Speaker 5: Australia is a part of that, South Korea could be
Speaker 5: part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has
Speaker 5: suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow,
Speaker 5: here's a place that we should also be supporting. And
Speaker 5: then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt
Speaker 5: that Taiwan hopes has its back.
Speaker 1: And as you say, Lie has to transit through the
Speaker 1: US bocanishally stop there. Like you would never see the
Speaker 1: president or vice president of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at
Speaker 1: the White House.
Speaker 5: Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you
Speaker 5: won't see the president of the vice president go to Taiwan.
Speaker 5: And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy
Speaker 5: Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think
Speaker 5: a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that,
Speaker 5: and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election.
Speaker 1: More from Joel's interview with Lie. When we come back, Joel,
Speaker 1: we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the
Speaker 1: relationship between Taiwan and China, and Lie has really pushed
Speaker 1: those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him,
Speaker 1: how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China.
Speaker 5: So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what
Speaker 5: he says in the interview is really about this idea
Speaker 5: of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this
Speaker 5: continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president
Speaker 5: President sign can't run because of term elaments. So he's
Speaker 5: continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to
Speaker 5: have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only
Speaker 5: Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening
Speaker 5: bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that
Speaker 5: it is part of Greater China, and that is a
Speaker 5: non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort
Speaker 5: of how fractured the rest of this race looks like
Speaker 5: and what the opposition parties might be willing to do.
Speaker 1: And you spoke to Lie about this, and here's what
Speaker 1: he had to say.
Speaker 6: Well, Jensa Tan Senji, this election is about choosing between
Speaker 6: two roads. One way is to continue engaging and cooperating
Speaker 6: closely with the international community while deepening our democracy. The
Speaker 6: other choice is to accept the one China principle and
Speaker 6: stand together with China. I believe the US will continue
Speaker 6: to support us on the first path one means.
Speaker 3: Will say so lia is talking about, of course, the US,
Speaker 3: and he believes that US will want him to continue
Speaker 3: to pass to work with the international community, including the US.
Speaker 3: While the opposition candidates would probably go down to the
Speaker 3: other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges
Speaker 3: with China. So the key issue for this presidential election
Speaker 3: is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal
Speaker 3: with China going forward.
Speaker 1: Joe, when you spoke to Lie about how he would
Speaker 1: lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform?
Speaker 5: Well, there's a formal answer to that which he's got
Speaker 5: these four principles that are effectively speak to how he
Speaker 5: will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though,
Speaker 5: is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy.
Speaker 4: I have the confidence that if we go on the
Speaker 4: right path to strengthen our sybil and the nation capability
Speaker 4: and extend shoulder to shoulder, which democracies, I think we
Speaker 4: will go through this complicated situation. And I always say
Speaker 4: peace is our destination. Democracy is our campus. We have two.
Speaker 4: We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation.
Speaker 5: I mean, he won best Legislator in Taiwan when he
Speaker 5: was on a more local level. And the foundation of
Speaker 5: the DPP is this is a democracy, right. So part
Speaker 5: of how this election is being framed is that Lie
Speaker 5: says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition
Speaker 5: candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting
Speaker 5: for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace.
Speaker 5: And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that
Speaker 5: are kind of playing out here.
Speaker 1: And what does he say about those charges that a
Speaker 1: vote for him is a vote for war.
Speaker 5: He does not want to provoke China full stop. So
Speaker 5: for him, he wants to be ready to defend and
Speaker 5: he said that to us. One element of that is
Speaker 5: that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan
Speaker 5: had been four months. So if you're an adult male,
Speaker 5: you had to do a four month tour of duty
Speaker 5: with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's
Speaker 5: been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan
Speaker 5: needs to be able to defend itself and one of
Speaker 5: the things Life says is we would want the US
Speaker 5: to come to our back, but we need to be
Speaker 5: able to defend ourselves.
Speaker 4: We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned
Speaker 4: and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and
Speaker 4: freedom just like us as long as Slayo is Parity
Speaker 4: and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to
Speaker 4: cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, untier
Speaker 4: China relaunches the force against Taiwan, we must strengthen our
Speaker 4: military capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder with democracies
Speaker 4: to effectively deter the straits from China and to secure
Speaker 4: stability in the Intero Pacific region.
Speaker 3: So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has
Speaker 3: to be prepared for war. So I think people here
Speaker 3: usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy, saying that
Speaker 3: the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from
Speaker 3: doing anything stupid. So that's why. Not only just Why,
Speaker 3: but also the KNT and the opposition candidates as well.
Speaker 3: They all support the idea that talent should be fat
Speaker 3: the deterrence so that that could stop China from having
Speaker 3: the idea to invade Taiwan and also have to let
Speaker 3: China think twice about a massive consequence they may have
Speaker 3: should one day they wanted to invade Taiwan.
Speaker 1: Joe, We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is
Speaker 1: one of its most important assets and one of the
Speaker 1: things that the rest of the world would potentially want
Speaker 1: to protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC,
Speaker 1: the big chip maker, is now building plants in the US.
Speaker 1: Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing
Speaker 1: for Taiwan's security?
Speaker 5: That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all
Speaker 5: of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan
Speaker 5: and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or
Speaker 5: just open warfare, the world could be set back years.
Speaker 5: I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in
Speaker 5: a world that looks like nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 5: It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the
Speaker 5: US military because those advanced chips are what the US
Speaker 5: would need to power its military. So from a US perspective,
Speaker 5: it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on
Speaker 5: short and as reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that
Speaker 5: are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an
Speaker 5: opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move
Speaker 5: out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan,
Speaker 5: they're flirting with Germany, so there's this idea that maybe
Speaker 5: there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now
Speaker 5: that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear
Speaker 5: that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan,
Speaker 5: would anyone come to Taiwan's aid should tensions escalate in
Speaker 5: China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan,
Speaker 5: do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really
Speaker 5: difficult question that is part of this election as well.
Speaker 1: Cindy, where do you lie and the other candidates say
Speaker 1: about this question of exporting ship making capability to other countries.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we asked lied about this question during our interview
Speaker 3: and lie thanks. It's actually a good thing that Taiwan,
Speaker 3: especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that
Speaker 3: shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows
Speaker 3: Taiwan's significance and the global tech supply chain, tawand Pan.
Speaker 6: Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world,
Speaker 6: but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan,
Speaker 6: we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing.
Speaker 6: Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our
Speaker 6: equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As
Speaker 6: a result, the semiconductor industry consists of a shared supply
Speaker 6: chain from across democracies.
Speaker 3: Tanye and He also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to
Speaker 3: give back to the international community. So when we ask
Speaker 3: him during the interview if TSMC is going to set
Speaker 3: up another plan in the US in the future, will
Speaker 3: he stopped that? His ansor is literally no, because he
Speaker 3: thinks that's just a positive development to show the Taiwan's
Speaker 3: significance to the world.
Speaker 5: All of this speaks to an element in the election
Speaker 5: that you could think of as American skepticism, which is,
Speaker 5: if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US
Speaker 5: actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up,
Speaker 5: which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip
Speaker 5: making moves to the US. Taiwan has this ecosystem that's
Speaker 5: been built over decades, and the US doesn't have that
Speaker 5: same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get
Speaker 5: made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and
Speaker 5: whoever else, those chips are going to go back to
Speaker 5: Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right,
Speaker 5: So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips
Speaker 5: out of this, but they're going to get made and
Speaker 5: then ship somewhere else to get assembled into the final
Speaker 5: product that Americans buy as consumer goods.
Speaker 1: Cindy. How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this?
Speaker 1: Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making?
Speaker 3: I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now,
Speaker 3: and I believe some people saying it's a good idea.
Speaker 3: It's just like Vice President lies it well. Other people
Speaker 3: would also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's
Speaker 3: probably the US trying to get the chip industry out
Speaker 3: of Taiwan in case of emergency or conflict, then US
Speaker 3: probably won't really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend
Speaker 3: Taiwan and not helping this just a while ago. We
Speaker 3: see former US President Trump said.
Speaker 2: Remember this, Taiwan took smart, brilliant, they took our business away.
Speaker 2: We should have stopped them, We should have text them,
Speaker 2: we should have tariffed them.
Speaker 3: So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. I just
Speaker 3: totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't
Speaker 3: really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit.
Speaker 1: After the break. How do people in Taiwan see the
Speaker 1: relationship with China, Joe. We've talked about how some people
Speaker 1: are making comparisons between Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan,
Speaker 1: and that a lot of people see this election is
Speaker 1: important in part because the next president may have to
Speaker 1: deal with an escalation of tensions with China. What is
Speaker 1: Lie's view on what thai No one needs to do
Speaker 1: if war with China is a real risk.
Speaker 5: I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China,
Speaker 5: and so that will be the first thing. One of
Speaker 5: the other people that we talked to was actually the
Speaker 5: Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to
Speaker 5: draw red lines and bluster, and one of the things
Speaker 5: that the international community should do is recognize that and
Speaker 5: not take that bait. So I think first and foremost
Speaker 5: it's imperative that lie to keep the status quo, not provoke,
Speaker 5: but should it happen, He's made clear that Taiwan will
Speaker 5: defend itself.
Speaker 3: When we as lie. During the interview what he learned
Speaker 3: from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent securities
Speaker 3: of international concern, and we will not be provocative and
Speaker 3: try to avoid war as much as possible.
Speaker 6: Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. Residents
Speaker 6: Lenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are
Speaker 6: protecting not only their country, their land, and their people.
Speaker 6: They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values.
Speaker 4: I'd also say how tong Jinga or China will collad.
Speaker 6: Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to see
Speaker 6: that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the best
Speaker 6: preparations for a worst case scenario.
Speaker 4: And inn way do.
Speaker 6: We also see that Presidents Zelenski's courage, as well as
Speaker 6: the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance
Speaker 6: against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that
Speaker 6: we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are
Speaker 6: no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war
Speaker 6: in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we
Speaker 6: can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 1: Tensen, Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about
Speaker 1: this risk of war? Is this a topic of Kandrus
Speaker 1: that comes up a lot.
Speaker 3: I think on the surface, the lives in Taiwan are
Speaker 3: pretty normal, just like when Joe visited US week. Took
Speaker 3: Joe to the night markets and you can see that
Speaker 3: the night markets are packed with the food vendors and
Speaker 3: packed with tourists not only from Taiwan but also from
Speaker 3: around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan.
Speaker 3: And the other day when I try to book a restaurant,
Speaker 3: I still need to like there's a long queue for
Speaker 3: Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on
Speaker 3: the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I
Speaker 3: think under the surface something started to change, especially after
Speaker 3: the Russian Ukraine war started. I think people here started
Speaker 3: to realize that war is not impossible. One of my friends,
Speaker 3: who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about buying
Speaker 3: passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries in
Speaker 3: the Caribbean Sea or even in EU if you invests
Speaker 3: a certain amount of money. So that kind of options
Speaker 3: have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially those
Speaker 3: people from the wealthy families, because they probably have more
Speaker 3: to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves and
Speaker 3: even for their kids. And in the campaign, there are
Speaker 3: some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages,
Speaker 3: high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to
Speaker 3: renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the
Speaker 3: biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else.
Speaker 1: Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What
Speaker 1: do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan.
Speaker 3: Certainly China doesn't like Lie, so there was an anodote
Speaker 3: about Lie. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and
Speaker 3: he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to
Speaker 3: to one of the person who was in Live's delegation
Speaker 3: at that time, he said Like immediately picked up that
Speaker 3: question by saying Taiwan independence was the consensus among the
Speaker 3: Taiwanese people that still vividly remembered by many of us
Speaker 3: in Taiwan, and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin
Speaker 3: said afterwards that they'll worry whether they will be able
Speaker 3: to leave Shanghai after his comments on Taiwan independence.
Speaker 5: Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician
Speaker 5: to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil.
Speaker 5: That shows you how much Beijing does not like him.
Speaker 3: As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably
Speaker 3: the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder
Speaker 3: of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid
Speaker 3: for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he
Speaker 3: probably will do that. And the reason why he is
Speaker 3: the most China friendly one is because he has said
Speaker 3: an an opinion piece to the Washington Post that he
Speaker 3: called for Taiwan to immediately start a talk with China
Speaker 3: under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current
Speaker 3: leader the President Taie and Vice President Lie for bringing
Speaker 3: Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that
Speaker 3: Perry Will would declare his bid for the presidential candidate
Speaker 3: as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split
Speaker 3: among three candidates, that's probably going to increase Vice present
Speaker 3: lives chance as a presidential candidate, Joe.
Speaker 1: So where do things go from here?
Speaker 5: So the election is going to actually be in January,
Speaker 5: so we have several months for this to play out,
Speaker 5: and then once we know who's won the election, the
Speaker 5: new president actually won't take office until May, so we
Speaker 5: have a lot of time. But it does speak to
Speaker 5: also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the
Speaker 5: current president side was not in the lead and then
Speaker 5: dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide.
Speaker 5: So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's
Speaker 5: an election and anything can happen.
Speaker 3: One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support
Speaker 3: rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty
Speaker 3: percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So
Speaker 3: if there is any way that a position campaign they
Speaker 3: can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could
Speaker 3: be the only way that they could lead over Vice
Speaker 3: Present Lie beat him and be elected next January.
Speaker 5: A way to think about what unfolds over the next
Speaker 5: couple months is you've got Lie who's a former kidney doctor,
Speaker 5: the TPP candidate, former surgeon. You've got the KMT candidate
Speaker 5: who's a former detective, and then you've got Fox con
Speaker 5: founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've got a doctor,
Speaker 5: a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire walking into an election.
Speaker 5: Who wins. The world is going to be watching this
Speaker 5: election come January. Obviously Taiwan's invested in this outcome. Beijing
Speaker 5: is watching it, the US is watching it, Europe's watching it.
Speaker 5: The global economy might hinge in the balance of who's
Speaker 5: elected president, So the stakes for this election could not
Speaker 5: be higher.
Speaker 1: Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks
Speaker 1: for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at
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