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Speaker 1: Hiatz Weskasova. The Big Take is taking a break this week,

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Speaker 1: so here's an episode you might have missed. Consequences are

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Speaker 1: coming right quick, with missile firings in the East China

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Speaker 1: see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes

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Speaker 2: across the midline of the Taiwan Straight How.

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Speaker 1: Would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That question

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Speaker 1: is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world.

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Speaker 1: President Biden said last year that the United States would

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Speaker 1: consider using military force to defend Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan

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Speaker 3: if it comes to that, Yes, you are.

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Speaker 4: That's the commitment we made.

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Speaker 1: That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan

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Speaker 1: not as an independent entity but a part of China

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Speaker 1: that will one day be united with the mainland. The

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Speaker 1: terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue

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Speaker 1: in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front

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Speaker 1: runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice

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Speaker 1: president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive party it's known

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Speaker 1: as the DPP. Laia is hoping to succeed President, saying

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Speaker 1: when she can't run again because of term limits. He's

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Speaker 1: taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of

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Speaker 1: the other candidates.

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Speaker 4: We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace

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Speaker 4: and prosperity. However, untier China relong states the force against Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to shoulder,

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Speaker 4: which democracies to activity deter the straits from China.

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Speaker 1: That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he

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Speaker 1: recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide

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Speaker 1: ranging interviews in Taiwan.

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Speaker 5: That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this

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Speaker 5: democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its

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Speaker 5: prosperity and keep Beijing away?

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Speaker 1: Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are

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Speaker 1: here with me to talk about what's at stake for

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Speaker 1: Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face.

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Speaker 1: I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election

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Speaker 1: for Taiwan's future. Cindy there's this very important presidential election

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Speaker 1: coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections

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Speaker 1: are important, but this one seems to have extra significance.

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Speaker 1: Why are people paying so close attention to this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan

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Speaker 3: these days, the first question that comes to people's mind

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Speaker 3: would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait.

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Speaker 3: So the key question that everybody wants to note about

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Speaker 3: Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well,

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Speaker 3: China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially

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Speaker 3: because Taiwan is the very important tech cub that has

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Speaker 3: this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this

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Speaker 3: election is especially important because it's all about war, and

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Speaker 3: that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about

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Speaker 3: right now. So people here are also anxious to know

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Speaker 3: whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to

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Speaker 3: handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can

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Speaker 3: or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war.

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Speaker 3: And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's

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Speaker 3: presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner in most

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Speaker 3: of the polls now, and if DPB wins again, it

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Speaker 3: would be the first time in Taiwan that a political

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Speaker 3: party could govern for a third term, and that would

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Speaker 3: probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as

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Speaker 3: a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong

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Speaker 3: signal to China because there is a risk that China's

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Speaker 3: nationalism will be so high that it could increase the

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Speaker 3: chance of a war across the strait.

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Speaker 1: Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chenda, is

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Speaker 1: the front runner in the race, and you went to

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Speaker 1: Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him.

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Speaker 5: Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than

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Speaker 5: the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to

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Speaker 5: the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that

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Speaker 5: I think I brought to it, which was I'm just

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Speaker 5: going to drop into this place and I just expected

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Speaker 5: there to be this cloud of China that was over everything,

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Speaker 5: and I was actually kind of surprised that that's not

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Speaker 5: how it felt. It felt like everyone going about their

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Speaker 5: normal lives and then all of a sudden there would

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Speaker 5: be reminders of that presence and I think Lie actually

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Speaker 5: is a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm,

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Speaker 5: mild manner, or at least that's what he wants to project.

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Speaker 5: He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in

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Speaker 5: nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the

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Speaker 5: Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which

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Speaker 5: has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views

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Speaker 5: himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as

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Speaker 5: we want to talk about war and this war sentiment,

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Speaker 5: and that is one of the defining elements of this

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Speaker 5: I think president election, he will frame it around democracy

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Speaker 5: and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with

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Speaker 5: the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of.

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Speaker 5: But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because

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Speaker 5: he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks

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Speaker 5: to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents.

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Speaker 1: Cindy, What does it mean when we say that LII

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Speaker 1: wants to be a continuity candidate.

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Speaker 3: So Vice Persondent Lai has been known for his provocative

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Speaker 3: comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public

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Speaker 3: as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the

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Speaker 3: impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here,

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Speaker 3: So he has this kind of track record. He said

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Speaker 3: many times in the past that he would be like

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Speaker 3: a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that and that kind

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Speaker 3: of provocative comments really worry people and worry Beijing and

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Speaker 3: US as well as people are worried that he may

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Speaker 3: try to change the status quo, and that's something that

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Speaker 3: nobody has a stake with Taiwan would like to see.

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Speaker 3: At the moment, soli Is now has a very very

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Speaker 3: important task. Is he has to prove to everyone, to

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Speaker 3: the US, to China and even to people in Taiwan

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Speaker 3: that he is going to be a very steady pair

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Speaker 3: of hands. He will not change the status quo. He

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Speaker 3: has to maintain the status quo that present Thai has

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Speaker 3: maintained over the past almost eight years. So we asked

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Speaker 3: him during our sitdown interview with him whether there would

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Speaker 3: be a romance to tell independence, whether he would consider

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Speaker 3: change the name of Taiwan. So his answers to all

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Speaker 3: those questions are no, there isn't going to be any change.

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Speaker 3: Currently the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,

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Speaker 3: and he said, because present Thai has used the name

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Speaker 3: Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and

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Speaker 3: that's the name he would continue to use.

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Speaker 1: Joel Cindy says, people watch very carefully how LII describes Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone.

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Speaker 1: The way Taiwan talks about itself, the way China describes

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Speaker 1: Taiwan is really at the heart of this whole question.

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Speaker 5: Right, And there's this status quo that a lot of

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Speaker 5: the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches

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Speaker 5: their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually,

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Speaker 5: probably right when you read about this stuff, you got

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Speaker 5: to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my

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Speaker 5: interviews with La. He speaks decent English, but he actually

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Speaker 5: chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically,

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Speaker 5: to be super mindful of the words that were coming

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Speaker 5: out of his mouth. There are a couple of times

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Speaker 5: that he opted to speak in English, but I think

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Speaker 5: default setting for him was in Chinese because of the

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Speaker 5: importance of getting his message rights. You what the stakes

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Speaker 5: really look like? Here. So what really comes down to

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Speaker 5: here is Taiwan, in the eyes of Beijing is viewed

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Speaker 5: as a breakaway province and under this One China policy

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Speaker 5: that has become sort of the driving principle of beijing

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Speaker 5: geopolitical goals, they view everything Taiwan included as part of

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Speaker 5: a greater China and will be absorbed at a future date.

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Speaker 5: What that future date is, no one really knows. Taiwan

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Speaker 5: wants it to be never and wants this status quo

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Speaker 5: to remain where they are a democratically independent sovereign entity.

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Speaker 5: So that's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve

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Speaker 5: this democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of

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Speaker 5: its prosperity and keep Beijing away?

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Speaker 3: I think status quo is really the key thing here.

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Speaker 3: I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan

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Speaker 3: all wants who preserve the status quo, although they may

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Speaker 3: have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in

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Speaker 3: Taiwan showed that at least three folds of Taiwan's population

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Speaker 3: supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they

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Speaker 3: don't want to unification with China either, but they want

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Speaker 3: the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan

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Speaker 3: cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched

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Speaker 3: ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then

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Speaker 3: from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a

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Speaker 3: sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that

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Speaker 3: China's idea that there is only one China and that's

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Speaker 3: represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves

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Speaker 3: the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing

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Speaker 3: about the US One China policy. So even though US

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Speaker 3: President Joe Biden has that four times that it would

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Speaker 3: defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan

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Speaker 3: as a country, so you can't really call Taiwan as

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Speaker 3: a nation.

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Speaker 5: I think the other thing to keep in mind there

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Speaker 5: is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on

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Speaker 5: a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking,

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Speaker 5: and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue

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Speaker 5: to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the

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Speaker 5: middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired

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Speaker 5: missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in

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Speaker 5: response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago.

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Speaker 5: So all of these things sort of challenged the status

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Speaker 5: quo and the moment that Taiwan or the US were

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Speaker 5: to respond in a way that might be a little

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Speaker 5: too impulsive. For instance, Beijing will use that as an

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Speaker 5: indication of change the status quote and maybe escalate the situation.

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Speaker 1: Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support

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Speaker 1: it gets from the rest of the world.

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Speaker 5: Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly?

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Speaker 4: I think so. I think so because Taiwan security is

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Speaker 4: a global yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific

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Speaker 4: region benefit all the country.

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Speaker 5: I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a

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Speaker 5: situation Taiwan's in With its diplomatic relationships around the world.

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Speaker 5: There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them,

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Speaker 5: thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally,

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Speaker 5: but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's

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Speaker 5: flipped a couple of them, and right now actually Vice

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Speaker 5: President Lie is in transit through the US to visit

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Speaker 5: an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier

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Speaker 5: of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or

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Speaker 5: anywhere in Taiwan, beef noodle soup is one of the

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Speaker 5: dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in

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Speaker 5: beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a

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Speaker 5: sense of what they're going to talk about when live

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Speaker 5: shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between

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Speaker 5: Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US,

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Speaker 5: he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him

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Speaker 5: in the US. He has to transit through here to

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Speaker 5: get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on

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Speaker 5: the way and then he goes through San Francisco on

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Speaker 5: the way back. And that's all not to inflame China.

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Speaker 5: So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes

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Speaker 5: down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official

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Speaker 5: allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones.

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Speaker 5: And part of what the current administration President Si with

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Speaker 5: Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean

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Speaker 5: into this informal, unofficial frame of like minded democracies they'll

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Speaker 5: call it. So Japan is a huge part of that,

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Speaker 5: Australia is a part of that, South Korea could be

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Speaker 5: part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has

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Speaker 5: suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow,

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Speaker 5: here's a place that we should also be supporting. And

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Speaker 5: then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt

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Speaker 5: that Taiwan hopes has its back.

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Speaker 1: And as you say, Lie has to transit through the

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Speaker 1: US bocanishally stop there. Like you would never see the

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Speaker 1: president or vice president of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at

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Speaker 1: the White House.

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Speaker 5: Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you

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Speaker 5: won't see the president of the vice president go to Taiwan.

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Speaker 5: And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy

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Speaker 5: Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think

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Speaker 5: a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that,

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Speaker 5: and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election.

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Speaker 1: More from Joel's interview with Lie. When we come back, Joel,

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Speaker 1: we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the

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Speaker 1: relationship between Taiwan and China, and Lie has really pushed

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Speaker 1: those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him,

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Speaker 1: how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China.

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Speaker 5: So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what

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Speaker 5: he says in the interview is really about this idea

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Speaker 5: of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this

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Speaker 5: continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president

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Speaker 5: President sign can't run because of term elaments. So he's

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Speaker 5: continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to

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Speaker 5: have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only

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Speaker 5: Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening

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Speaker 5: bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that

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Speaker 5: it is part of Greater China, and that is a

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Speaker 5: non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort

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Speaker 5: of how fractured the rest of this race looks like

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Speaker 5: and what the opposition parties might be willing to do.

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Speaker 1: And you spoke to Lie about this, and here's what

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Speaker 1: he had to say.

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Speaker 6: Well, Jensa Tan Senji, this election is about choosing between

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Speaker 6: two roads. One way is to continue engaging and cooperating

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Speaker 6: closely with the international community while deepening our democracy. The

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Speaker 6: other choice is to accept the one China principle and

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Speaker 6: stand together with China. I believe the US will continue

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Speaker 6: to support us on the first path one means.

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Speaker 3: Will say so lia is talking about, of course, the US,

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Speaker 3: and he believes that US will want him to continue

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Speaker 3: to pass to work with the international community, including the US.

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Speaker 3: While the opposition candidates would probably go down to the

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Speaker 3: other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges

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Speaker 3: with China. So the key issue for this presidential election

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Speaker 3: is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal

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Speaker 3: with China going forward.

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Speaker 1: Joe, when you spoke to Lie about how he would

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Speaker 1: lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform?

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Speaker 5: Well, there's a formal answer to that which he's got

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Speaker 5: these four principles that are effectively speak to how he

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Speaker 5: will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though,

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Speaker 5: is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy.

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Speaker 4: I have the confidence that if we go on the

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Speaker 4: right path to strengthen our sybil and the nation capability

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Speaker 4: and extend shoulder to shoulder, which democracies, I think we

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Speaker 4: will go through this complicated situation. And I always say

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Speaker 4: peace is our destination. Democracy is our campus. We have two.

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Speaker 4: We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he won best Legislator in Taiwan when he

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Speaker 5: was on a more local level. And the foundation of

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Speaker 5: the DPP is this is a democracy, right. So part

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Speaker 5: of how this election is being framed is that Lie

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Speaker 5: says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition

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Speaker 5: candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting

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Speaker 5: for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace.

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Speaker 5: And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that

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Speaker 5: are kind of playing out here.

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Speaker 1: And what does he say about those charges that a

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Speaker 1: vote for him is a vote for war.

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Speaker 5: He does not want to provoke China full stop. So

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Speaker 5: for him, he wants to be ready to defend and

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Speaker 5: he said that to us. One element of that is

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Speaker 5: that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan

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Speaker 5: had been four months. So if you're an adult male,

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Speaker 5: you had to do a four month tour of duty

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Speaker 5: with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's

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Speaker 5: been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan

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Speaker 5: needs to be able to defend itself and one of

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Speaker 5: the things Life says is we would want the US

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Speaker 5: to come to our back, but we need to be

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Speaker 5: able to defend ourselves.

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Speaker 4: We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned

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Speaker 4: and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and

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Speaker 4: freedom just like us as long as Slayo is Parity

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Speaker 4: and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to

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Speaker 4: cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, untier

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Speaker 4: China relaunches the force against Taiwan, we must strengthen our

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Speaker 4: military capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder with democracies

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Speaker 4: to effectively deter the straits from China and to secure

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Speaker 4: stability in the Intero Pacific region.

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Speaker 3: So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has

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Speaker 3: to be prepared for war. So I think people here

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Speaker 3: usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy, saying that

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Speaker 3: the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from

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Speaker 3: doing anything stupid. So that's why. Not only just Why,

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Speaker 3: but also the KNT and the opposition candidates as well.

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Speaker 3: They all support the idea that talent should be fat

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Speaker 3: the deterrence so that that could stop China from having

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Speaker 3: the idea to invade Taiwan and also have to let

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Speaker 3: China think twice about a massive consequence they may have

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Speaker 3: should one day they wanted to invade Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Joe, We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is

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Speaker 1: one of its most important assets and one of the

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Speaker 1: things that the rest of the world would potentially want

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Speaker 1: to protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC,

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Speaker 1: the big chip maker, is now building plants in the US.

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Speaker 1: Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing

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Speaker 1: for Taiwan's security?

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Speaker 5: That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all

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Speaker 5: of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan

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Speaker 5: and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or

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Speaker 5: just open warfare, the world could be set back years.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in

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Speaker 5: a world that looks like nineteen eighty two.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the

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Speaker 5: US military because those advanced chips are what the US

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Speaker 5: would need to power its military. So from a US perspective,

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Speaker 5: it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on

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Speaker 5: short and as reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that

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Speaker 5: are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an

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Speaker 5: opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move

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Speaker 5: out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan,

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Speaker 5: they're flirting with Germany, so there's this idea that maybe

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Speaker 5: there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now

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Speaker 5: that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear

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Speaker 5: that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan,

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Speaker 5: would anyone come to Taiwan's aid should tensions escalate in

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Speaker 5: China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan,

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Speaker 5: do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really

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Speaker 5: difficult question that is part of this election as well.

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Speaker 1: Cindy, where do you lie and the other candidates say

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Speaker 1: about this question of exporting ship making capability to other countries.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we asked lied about this question during our interview

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Speaker 3: and lie thanks. It's actually a good thing that Taiwan,

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Speaker 3: especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that

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Speaker 3: shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows

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Speaker 3: Taiwan's significance and the global tech supply chain, tawand Pan.

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Speaker 6: Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world,

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Speaker 6: but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan,

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Speaker 6: we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing.

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Speaker 6: Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our

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Speaker 6: equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As

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Speaker 6: a result, the semiconductor industry consists of a shared supply

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Speaker 6: chain from across democracies.

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Speaker 3: Tanye and He also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to

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Speaker 3: give back to the international community. So when we ask

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Speaker 3: him during the interview if TSMC is going to set

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Speaker 3: up another plan in the US in the future, will

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Speaker 3: he stopped that? His ansor is literally no, because he

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Speaker 3: thinks that's just a positive development to show the Taiwan's

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Speaker 3: significance to the world.

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Speaker 5: All of this speaks to an element in the election

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Speaker 5: that you could think of as American skepticism, which is,

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Speaker 5: if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US

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Speaker 5: actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up,

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Speaker 5: which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip

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Speaker 5: making moves to the US. Taiwan has this ecosystem that's

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Speaker 5: been built over decades, and the US doesn't have that

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Speaker 5: same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get

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Speaker 5: made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and

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Speaker 5: whoever else, those chips are going to go back to

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Speaker 5: Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right,

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Speaker 5: So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips

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Speaker 5: out of this, but they're going to get made and

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Speaker 5: then ship somewhere else to get assembled into the final

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Speaker 5: product that Americans buy as consumer goods.

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Speaker 1: Cindy. How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this?

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Speaker 1: Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making?

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Speaker 3: I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now,

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Speaker 3: and I believe some people saying it's a good idea.

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Speaker 3: It's just like Vice President lies it well. Other people

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Speaker 3: would also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's

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Speaker 3: probably the US trying to get the chip industry out

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Speaker 3: of Taiwan in case of emergency or conflict, then US

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Speaker 3: probably won't really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend

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Speaker 3: Taiwan and not helping this just a while ago. We

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Speaker 3: see former US President Trump said.

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Speaker 2: Remember this, Taiwan took smart, brilliant, they took our business away.

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Speaker 2: We should have stopped them, We should have text them,

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Speaker 2: we should have tariffed them.

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Speaker 3: So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. I just

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Speaker 3: totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't

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Speaker 3: really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit.

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Speaker 1: After the break. How do people in Taiwan see the

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Speaker 1: relationship with China, Joe. We've talked about how some people

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Speaker 1: are making comparisons between Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and that a lot of people see this election is

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Speaker 1: important in part because the next president may have to

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Speaker 1: deal with an escalation of tensions with China. What is

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Speaker 1: Lie's view on what thai No one needs to do

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Speaker 1: if war with China is a real risk.

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Speaker 5: I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China,

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Speaker 5: and so that will be the first thing. One of

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Speaker 5: the other people that we talked to was actually the

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Speaker 5: Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to

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Speaker 5: draw red lines and bluster, and one of the things

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Speaker 5: that the international community should do is recognize that and

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Speaker 5: not take that bait. So I think first and foremost

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Speaker 5: it's imperative that lie to keep the status quo, not provoke,

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Speaker 5: but should it happen, He's made clear that Taiwan will

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Speaker 5: defend itself.

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Speaker 3: When we as lie. During the interview what he learned

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Speaker 3: from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent securities

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Speaker 3: of international concern, and we will not be provocative and

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Speaker 3: try to avoid war as much as possible.

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Speaker 6: Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. Residents

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Speaker 6: Lenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are

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Speaker 6: protecting not only their country, their land, and their people.

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Speaker 6: They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values.

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Speaker 4: I'd also say how tong Jinga or China will collad.

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Speaker 6: Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to see

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Speaker 6: that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the best

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Speaker 6: preparations for a worst case scenario.

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Speaker 4: And inn way do.

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Speaker 6: We also see that Presidents Zelenski's courage, as well as

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Speaker 6: the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance

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00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,239
Speaker 6: against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that

439
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 6: we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are

440
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 6: no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war

441
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 6: in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we

442
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 6: can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.

443
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: Tensen, Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about

444
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: this risk of war? Is this a topic of Kandrus

445
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: that comes up a lot.

446
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: I think on the surface, the lives in Taiwan are

447
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 3: pretty normal, just like when Joe visited US week. Took

448
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 3: Joe to the night markets and you can see that

449
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: the night markets are packed with the food vendors and

450
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: packed with tourists not only from Taiwan but also from

451
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 3: around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan.

452
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 3: And the other day when I try to book a restaurant,

453
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 3: I still need to like there's a long queue for

454
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 3: Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on

455
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I

456
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 3: think under the surface something started to change, especially after

457
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 3: the Russian Ukraine war started. I think people here started

458
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 3: to realize that war is not impossible. One of my friends,

459
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 3: who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about buying

460
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 3: passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries in

461
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 3: the Caribbean Sea or even in EU if you invests

462
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 3: a certain amount of money. So that kind of options

463
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 3: have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially those

464
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: people from the wealthy families, because they probably have more

465
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,959
Speaker 3: to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves and

466
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 3: even for their kids. And in the campaign, there are

467
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 3: some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages,

468
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 3: high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to

469
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the

470
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 3: biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else.

471
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What

472
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan.

473
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: Certainly China doesn't like Lie, so there was an anodote

474
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 3: about Lie. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and

475
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,040
Speaker 3: he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to

476
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: to one of the person who was in Live's delegation

477
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 3: at that time, he said Like immediately picked up that

478
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 3: question by saying Taiwan independence was the consensus among the

479
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: Taiwanese people that still vividly remembered by many of us

480
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: in Taiwan, and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin

481
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 3: said afterwards that they'll worry whether they will be able

482
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 3: to leave Shanghai after his comments on Taiwan independence.

483
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 5: Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician

484
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 5: to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil.

485
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 5: That shows you how much Beijing does not like him.

486
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 3: As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably

487
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder

488
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid

489
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he

490
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 3: probably will do that. And the reason why he is

491
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 3: the most China friendly one is because he has said

492
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 3: an an opinion piece to the Washington Post that he

493
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 3: called for Taiwan to immediately start a talk with China

494
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 3: under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current

495
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: leader the President Taie and Vice President Lie for bringing

496
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that

497
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: Perry Will would declare his bid for the presidential candidate

498
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 3: as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split

499
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 3: among three candidates, that's probably going to increase Vice present

500
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 3: lives chance as a presidential candidate, Joe.

501
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: So where do things go from here?

502
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 5: So the election is going to actually be in January,

503
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 5: so we have several months for this to play out,

504
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 5: and then once we know who's won the election, the

505
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 5: new president actually won't take office until May, so we

506
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 5: have a lot of time. But it does speak to

507
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 5: also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the

508
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 5: current president side was not in the lead and then

509
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 5: dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide.

510
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 5: So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's

511
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 5: an election and anything can happen.

512
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 3: One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support

513
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,719
Speaker 3: rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty

514
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So

515
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 3: if there is any way that a position campaign they

516
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could

517
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 3: be the only way that they could lead over Vice

518
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 3: Present Lie beat him and be elected next January.

519
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 5: A way to think about what unfolds over the next

520
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 5: couple months is you've got Lie who's a former kidney doctor,

521
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 5: the TPP candidate, former surgeon. You've got the KMT candidate

522
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 5: who's a former detective, and then you've got Fox con

523
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 5: founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've got a doctor,

524
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 5: a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire walking into an election.

525
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 5: Who wins. The world is going to be watching this

526
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 5: election come January. Obviously Taiwan's invested in this outcome. Beijing

527
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 5: is watching it, the US is watching it, Europe's watching it.

528
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 5: The global economy might hinge in the balance of who's

529
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 5: elected president, So the stakes for this election could not

530
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 5: be higher.

531
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks

532
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at

533
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 1: The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.

534
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

535
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. And we'd love to to hear

536
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: from you. Email us questions or comments to Big Take

537
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The Big

538
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: Take is Vicky Virgalina. Our Senior producer is Katherine Fink.

539
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: Our producers are Michael Falero and Moberrow. Philde Garcia is

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00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 1: our engineer, with additional production support from Nielli, Haramio Plata

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00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: and Jill Namazzi. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin.

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00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 1: I'm West Kasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another big take.