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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have Ryssel? Indeed, we do a lot

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Speaker 1: of big stories to get to. First, Are we in

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Speaker 1: a recession already? Are we heading towards a recession? The

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Speaker 1: White House very much out there trying to parse and

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Speaker 1: come up with their own alternative facts around the state

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Speaker 1: of the economy. Also, as we have been previewing, the

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Speaker 1: Fed set to raise interest rates to expectation is they

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Speaker 1: will probably lift it seventy five basis points or point

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent. There is an outside chance that they'll

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Speaker 1: lifted one percentage point either way. This is an extraordinary

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Speaker 1: move with major implications for you and for the economy.

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Speaker 1: So we will break all of that down. Also, some

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Speaker 1: new questions about whether the Murdochs and Fox News are

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Speaker 1: turning on Trump. Yeah, it's an interesting one, big debate

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Speaker 1: out there, so we'll read some of the tea leaves

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Speaker 1: see what they're up to. Also, yesterday we brought you

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Speaker 1: the news that Nordstream won that critical pipeline bringing natural

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Speaker 1: gas in particular to Germany, had been turned back on.

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Speaker 1: Now we're getting numbers about how much capacity maybe on,

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Speaker 1: but not really not a full blast. So and also

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Speaker 1: a new deal just breaking this morning among EU member

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Speaker 1: nations to curb their natural gas consumption. So we'll break

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Speaker 1: all of that down for you. Also, another insider trading scandal,

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Speaker 1: this time with a former congressman, and we have this

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Speaker 1: is kind of a stunning development a friend of the show,

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Speaker 1: Glenn Greenwold, along with a lot of other figures, Chelsea Gabert, Ran,

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Speaker 1: Paul Lula, the former president of Brazil, put on a

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Speaker 1: blacklist in Ukraine of people who are quote unquote spreading

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Speaker 1: Russian propaganda. It's completely it's completely insane, and it's part

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Speaker 1: of a really disturbing trend in Ukraine of cracking down

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Speaker 1: on any descent. So bring that to you. We also

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Speaker 1: have a first time guest on the show, Jonathan Swanto,

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Speaker 1: had a big scoop about the plans being laid for

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Speaker 1: a second Trump term. But before we jump into the

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Speaker 1: latest news about potential recession, we do have a couple

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Speaker 1: of announcement. Number One, you guys already known to say

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Speaker 1: live show, we got to sell those tickets. People. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. September sixteenth in Atlanta. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot to discuss. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be election season, part of a bigger midterm tour that

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Speaker 1: chrisal and I are doing with many other friends of

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Speaker 1: the show. We'll be making appearances across the Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're obviously going to drag Marshall's Chylde of course, of course,

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Speaker 1: but we're we're still looking at some others. All right,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be great and listen this tour, it's this

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Speaker 1: is the first show as we've said, we have to

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Speaker 1: show people that we can sell these tickets. We'd really

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Speaker 1: really like to sell this one out as soon as possible,

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Speaker 1: just to prove it to many other venues who we're

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Speaker 1: speaking with exactly how many tickets we can sell, booking,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. I don't want to bring people too far in,

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Speaker 1: but that is why we've been pushing it so hard,

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Speaker 1: so we deeply appreciate it. Number two also as a

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Speaker 1: reminder our premium monthly subscribers, just if you could help

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Speaker 1: out the show for financial planning purposes, we are offering

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Speaker 1: a discount to upgrade to yearly. It is deeply appreciative

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Speaker 1: on our parts. It really helps, as we said, financial planning,

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Speaker 1: as we're looking to hire and expand further out into

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Speaker 1: the show. Just given everything with the economic situation, we

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Speaker 1: thought it was best and as such we're offering those

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Speaker 1: existing monthly subscribers the ability to upgrade. There is a

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Speaker 1: link in your premium newsletter at the very very top

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Speaker 1: for you to do so. For all. For the many

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Speaker 1: of you who have already done so, we appreciate it

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Speaker 1: so much and they've been sending in such nice messages

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Speaker 1: like of course I can if you can't afford it,

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Speaker 1: no worries whatsoever. We totally get it, you know, given

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Speaker 1: what's happening with the economy right now. And so that's

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Speaker 1: probably a good segue actually to what we should discuss,

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Speaker 1: which is the Biden administration is facing down the barrel

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Speaker 1: of a quote technical recession. And whenever you do such

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Speaker 1: a thing, what do you do? You go, you know what,

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Speaker 1: let's just change the definition of recession. So that's what's happening.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. So Thursday

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Speaker 1: we are likely to see a GDP report that shows

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Speaker 1: a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Now, technically that

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Speaker 1: should be a recession. However, the Council of Economic Advisors,

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Speaker 1: which is appointed by the White House and which provides

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Speaker 1: supposed to be nonpartisan economic analysis to the executive branch,

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Speaker 1: is now changing the definition ahead of that Thursday GDP report.

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Speaker 1: And so Jackie Henrik, who is over at Fox News,

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Speaker 1: points out very clearly that the White House release says,

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Speaker 1: what is a recession? Oh, please tell us? While some

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Speaker 1: maintain to consecutive quarters of following real GDP constituted recession,

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Speaker 1: that is neither the official definition nor the way economists

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Speaker 1: evaluate the state of the business cycle instead. Both official

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Speaker 1: determinations of recession economist secessions are based on a holistic

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Speaker 1: look at the data. Based on these data, it is

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Speaker 1: unlikely the decline in the GDP of the first quarter

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Speaker 1: of this year, even if followed by another GDP decline

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Speaker 1: in the second quarter, indicates a recession. Well, there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a problem with that. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and throw this next one. Or let's go ahead actually

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Speaker 1: and listen on CNN whenever the White House Economic Advisor

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Speaker 1: is pressed for changing this definition, and it will also

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Speaker 1: show you some historical stuff which outright proves that the

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Speaker 1: White House is lying. Let's take a listen to the

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Speaker 1: White House spin first. What will be comments from some

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Speaker 1: saying two quarters of negative growth in a row, that's

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Speaker 1: a recession, right, And certainly in terms of the technical definition,

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Speaker 1: it's not a recession. The technical definition considers a much

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Speaker 1: broader spectrum of data points. But in practical terms, what

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Speaker 1: matters to the American people is whether they have a

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Speaker 1: little economic breathing room, they have more job opportunities, their

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Speaker 1: wages are going up. That has been Joe Biden's focus

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Speaker 1: since coming into office. Yeah, so are any of those

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Speaker 1: things happening? No, so it also is a recession. But

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Speaker 1: as Michael Strain points out, let's gohead and put this

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Of the past ten times

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Speaker 1: that the US economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of

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Speaker 1: negative economic growth, how many times was a recession officially

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Speaker 1: declared ten? So ten out of ten times. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: I get that it's not great pr optics, but redefining

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Speaker 1: definitions of recession is frankly, in my opinion, worse than saying, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're living through hard times. I'm doing everything I possibly

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Speaker 1: can about it. I will give one counter defense, Crystal.

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Speaker 1: I spoke with Joe Wisenthal friend over at Bloomberg. Here's

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Speaker 1: what he says. Every single post World War II recession

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Speaker 1: saw unemployment rise before it or during it. However, in

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Speaker 1: the first half of Time twenty twenty two, we saw

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Speaker 1: unemployment fall from three point nine to three point six.

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Speaker 1: So that is the defense of like the White House position.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Joe is not spinning, He's just giving

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Speaker 1: you the facts of why this one is wonky. Fine,

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Speaker 1: say that, hey, this is a wonky recession, but redefining

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Speaker 1: the term recession and really gaslighting people, also using criteria

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Speaker 1: which clearly are negatively trending for all of the American people.

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Speaker 1: On top of the fact that everybody know that nothing

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Speaker 1: is working in American society. You're not fooling everybody. It's

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Speaker 1: such insane move on there. Nominal wages maybe rising, but

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Speaker 1: of course when you count inflation, everyone is getting a

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Speaker 1: pay cut basically every week. So the idea that wages

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Speaker 1: are going up, I mean again, that's it's very gaslighting.

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Speaker 1: And the bottom line is this isn't going to work.

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Speaker 1: People know what's going on in their own lives. I

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Speaker 1: just was looking, you know, earlier this month, there was

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Speaker 1: a poll that found fifty eight percent of Americans already

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Speaker 1: think the country is in a recession. So they don't

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Speaker 1: need your like technical person definition to figure out what's

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Speaker 1: going on in the economy. And I think politicians really

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Speaker 1: air when they try to persuade people that things are

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Speaker 1: going better than what they actually think and feel. I

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Speaker 1: think Obama made this same mistake in his second term

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Speaker 1: when he tried to sell the recovery as something that

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Speaker 1: was really robust and really amazing when people were really

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Speaker 1: still struggling, and it made him vulnerable to defeat if

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Speaker 1: the Republicans had run anyone other than like a cartoon

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Speaker 1: character like monopoly plutocratic villain. And so I think the

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Speaker 1: Bind team throughout this period has consistently made this same

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Speaker 1: mistake of trying to sell the unemployment numbers, trying to

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Speaker 1: sell the nominal wage gains as this incredible recovery and

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Speaker 1: the media is just spinning and the economy is actually great.

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Speaker 1: You just don't understand it when people know that things

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Speaker 1: are really tight for them. They know that, you know,

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Speaker 1: the job market already, there's signs of significant deterioration that

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Speaker 1: we're going to get to in a moment. You have

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Speaker 1: new unemployment claims coming and higher, so you see that

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Speaker 1: starting to ebb. Well, you already see massive impacts in

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Speaker 1: terms of the housing market. So I was actually just

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Speaker 1: reading an article about how how upper middle class Americans,

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Speaker 1: not that they're the most compelling or most sympathetic group,

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Speaker 1: but they're really being squeezed right now too because they

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Speaker 1: didn't benefit from the pandemic programs which means tested and

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Speaker 1: now they're stock portfolios which made them feel like they

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Speaker 1: had a lot of money have all crashed their housing values,

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Speaker 1: which also made them feel like they had a lot

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Speaker 1: of money are starting to crash. They recognize they can't

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Speaker 1: sell into this market. If they did and tried to

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Speaker 1: move somewhere else, they couldn't afford a new home. So

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Speaker 1: you have people increasingly in their lives feeling like things

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Speaker 1: are tight, like they can't afford what they could at

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Speaker 1: the grocery store, like they're having to cut back. And

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Speaker 1: the White House's like technical parsing of whether or not

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Speaker 1: it's a recession is not going to change their minds

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Speaker 1: on that. Yeah, and Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, is

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Speaker 1: sticking to the same spin. Let's go and put this

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen. She says, the economy shows

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Speaker 1: no signs of recession. And once again this is bs

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Speaker 1: because Janet Yellen should know better. Her background is as

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Speaker 1: a technical economist. Her and her husband are both I

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Speaker 1: think her husband is a nob Well prize in the

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Speaker 1: field of economic They're the ones who came up with

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Speaker 1: this definition, and yet now they are saying, you don't

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Speaker 1: see any of the signs. A recession is a broad

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Speaker 1: based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We

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Speaker 1: just don't have that. In the very same breath. She

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Speaker 1: acknowledges the impact of high inflation numbers on Americas, specifically gas, food,

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Speaker 1: and other economic problems. And this the issue that I

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Speaker 1: really have on this is that they are all over

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Speaker 1: the place. Remember it was not even three months ago

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden was standing in front of the Port of

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles telling us that we've lived in the strongest

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Speaker 1: economic recovery since World War Two. Look again, they're using

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Speaker 1: technical definitely, like wholl economy has unemployments three point nine.

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Speaker 1: What does the unemployment rate matter if you cannot expec

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Speaker 1: if you cannot literally afford anything in your daily life,

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Speaker 1: if you can't buy a car. I mean, even just recently,

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Speaker 1: I was looking again, especially with this FED rate hike,

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Speaker 1: which is like we're about to talk about, it's about

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Speaker 1: to come down the pipe. That's going to raise the

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Speaker 1: average car price to like eight hundred undred dollars a month.

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Speaker 1: That's not even including not even including insurance and all

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Speaker 1: the other attendant costs. And that's if you can buy

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Speaker 1: a car. So the used car market is on fire.

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Speaker 1: People are having real trouble taking out loans. Their credit

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Speaker 1: card usage is sky high. We're seeing all sorts of

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Speaker 1: insanity happen in the mortgage markets, in the loan markets.

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Speaker 1: That's on top of what have anyone been to a

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Speaker 1: grocery store lately? It's crazy, Like you look at a

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Speaker 1: price of a pound of ground beef is going for

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Speaker 1: like eight to nine dollars, and you know, we've even

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Speaker 1: seen a reduction. And this is again what really bothers me.

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Speaker 1: People are making really material cutbacks in their daily lives.

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Speaker 1: I told you about the booming YouTube channel about how

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Speaker 1: to cook like a depression housewife, Like this is not

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Speaker 1: good or American. Yeah, they literally have these old videos.

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Speaker 1: I have a lot of friends who could fill out

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Speaker 1: that YouTube context. You're very effective at that. This is

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Speaker 1: grandma who has now died but in twenty thirteen did

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Speaker 1: like a whole series or their grandson. She's like, here's

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Speaker 1: how we used to cook in the depression, and now

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Speaker 1: her views are going like booming right now because people

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Speaker 1: are like, oh, how do I make like a single

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Speaker 1: Costco rotisserie chicken last for a week? We don't want

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Speaker 1: the American people if that's a terrible situation to be in.

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Speaker 1: You know, that leaves generational scars, no acknowledgment by the government.

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Speaker 1: That's that's the single failure I think by the industry. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's right. You have to level with people.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they just they know what's going on. They

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Speaker 1: see it and feel it better than you do. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're talking about officials who aren't worried about

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Speaker 1: their next paycheck. They're not worried about having to stretch

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Speaker 1: a costco chicken. All we hear their families, So the

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Speaker 1: American people have a much better sense of what is

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Speaker 1: really happening on the ground. There's another reason why people

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Speaker 1: like Janet Yellen in particular would be interested in sort

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Speaker 1: of spinning the numbers and pointing to out, we have

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Speaker 1: these really great, you know, low unemployment numbers, which is

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Speaker 1: true but does not even come close to telling the

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Speaker 1: whole story of what's going on here. But if you

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Speaker 1: have the economy already slipping into a recession, you can't

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Speaker 1: have the FED continuing to move forward with these incredibly

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Speaker 1: drastic hawkish measures, because you know, if you already have

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Speaker 1: tipped things into a recession and you still have this

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Speaker 1: high inflation, this proves the point that the FED policy,

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Speaker 1: the direction they're going in, is really not working and

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Speaker 1: is actually just making things worse, And I guess that's

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Speaker 1: a great transition to talk about what the Fed is

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Speaker 1: set to do this week. Let's go ahead and put

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Speaker 1: this Bloomberg article up on the screen. They're on track

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Speaker 1: at their Wednesday meeting to raise interest rates by seventy

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Speaker 1: five basis points. Again, that's zero point seventy five percent.

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Speaker 1: That's for the second straight month when they meet later

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Speaker 1: in July. As you know, they raise interest rates by

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Speaker 1: a quarter point in March, a half point in May,

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Speaker 1: three quarters of a point in June. That was the

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Speaker 1: biggest move since nineteen ninety four, and they are set

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Speaker 1: to replicate it this week on Wednesday. Now, there had

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Speaker 1: been some expectation, which is not completely out the window,

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Speaker 1: but seems like a very outside chance now that they

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Speaker 1: might go so far as to lift the rates a

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Speaker 1: full one hundred basis points. That's a full percentage point,

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Speaker 1: So that would be, you know, quite astonishing and quite

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Speaker 1: significant of a move. But seventy five basis points is

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Speaker 1: no joke either. This is in an extraordinarily hawkish direction

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Speaker 1: that the Fed is pushing things in, and you know,

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Speaker 1: they're kind of flying blind. No one really has a

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Speaker 1: great sense of exactly how these interest rates increases are

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Speaker 1: going to trickle down throughout the economy. We already see

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Speaker 1: huge impacts in terms of financing cars, in terms especially

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Speaker 1: of the housing market. As I was saying before, you're

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Speaker 1: starting to see impacts even in the employment market as well,

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Speaker 1: in spite of the fact that you have had this

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Speaker 1: these low unemployment numbers for a long time. The reason

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Speaker 1: that they seem to have backed off of the full

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Speaker 1: hundred basis point move is because they got some data

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Speaker 1: showing that US consumers long term inflation expectations actually declined

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Speaker 1: in early July. So they were forecast to go two

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Speaker 1: point eight percent versus three point one percent the month before.

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Speaker 1: That's what people's expectations of inflation were. So they sort

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Speaker 1: looked at that, and I said, Okay, maybe we don't

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Speaker 1: need to go quite so far, but I don't want

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Speaker 1: to underplay how extraordinary of a move this still is

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Speaker 1: to have for the second month in a row, an

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Speaker 1: interest rate increase that we have not seen since nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety four. Yeah, and actually what Wall by the way,

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Speaker 1: the one hundred basis points not off the table. I

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Speaker 1: was just reading this morning that City Bank and many

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Speaker 1: other major traders on Wall Street are still betting on

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Speaker 1: the one hundred. They're willing to be surprised if they

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Speaker 1: do go ahead and hit seventy five basis points. And

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Speaker 1: the reason again that this matters is that not only

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Speaker 1: was the previous rate hike the highest since nineteen ninety four,

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Speaker 1: and then you do it again, but you know, it's

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Speaker 1: it just shows you that given where inflation is right now,

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Speaker 1: which is that we continue to have forty year highs

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Speaker 1: almost every month since the number comes out, there still

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be any indication that they're going to stop.

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Speaker 1: So what others are pointing to? The chief economist over

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Speaker 1: at JP Morgan says, the real question is what comes

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Speaker 1: after because they're going to have to continue hiking rates.

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Speaker 1: They could go up as high as five, six, seven,

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Speaker 1: eight nine percent, could continue, you know, month after month,

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Speaker 1: every time that they have these quarterly meetings, and if

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Speaker 1: they increase seventy five basis points over a period of time,

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Speaker 1: and we could be looking at mortgage rates which are

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Speaker 1: nine or ten percent. Now, those of you who bought

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Speaker 1: houses in like the nineties won't be that sympathetic, but

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Speaker 1: it's a different country. We haven't lived in a country

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Speaker 1: like that for thirty some years and I was actually

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Speaker 1: reading that the real issue also is the housing stock.

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Speaker 1: So obviously we have a major housing shortage across the

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Speaker 1: United States. Low interest rates and low mortgage or the

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Speaker 1: housing boom was actually fueling a hell of a lot

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Speaker 1: of construction. But now guess what the problem is. We

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Speaker 1: actually need that construction to finish. We really do. But

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Speaker 1: why would general contractors finish their houses if they can't

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Speaker 1: sell them? So it actually the housing increase. While yes,

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Speaker 1: will slow down the housing market, it also will probably

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Speaker 1: it will probably increase the housing shortage that we have

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Speaker 1: across the United States. So the investment that we have

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Speaker 1: right now is really a major problem. And also I

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Speaker 1: just you know, I can't emphasize enough in the past,

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Speaker 1: which is the key tool that the FAT has here

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Speaker 1: is targeting demand and increasing unemployment. That is not going

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Speaker 1: to solve the vast majority of inflation that we have

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Speaker 1: right now in twenty twenty two. And you flag this

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Speaker 1: and look, no fanibolism with Warren here, But to be fair,

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Speaker 1: she's been actually pretty relentless. Let's put this up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen writing, well, that she can be good

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Speaker 1: on economics when she's good, Oh yeah, you know, her

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Speaker 1: trade policy and all that are always supported. So let's

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Speaker 1: gohe and put this on the screen. Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 1: opinion paid so very clearly targeted the business economic elite.

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Speaker 1: And she specifically points out here more aggressive rate hikes

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Speaker 1: are costs millions of jobs and will not address the

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Speaker 1: cause of high prices. And she quotes the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: chairman when she asked him whether that was going to

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Speaker 1: bring down the price of gas or food, and he said, quote,

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Speaker 1: there are many things that we can't affect. Again, the

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Speaker 1: reason it matters is your demand at the grocery store.

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Speaker 1: Is not the reason that we have seen seven ten

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Speaker 1: to twenty percent increase for twenty percent, for example, in

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Speaker 1: the price of egg. It's supply. We have massive supply problems.

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Speaker 1: We have fertilizer problems. Climate obviously, you know there's a

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Speaker 1: scorcher all across the country. There's wildfires all the way

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Speaker 1: out west, not just here. Brazil had a massive shortage,

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Speaker 1: so a coffee is down by for you know, there's

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Speaker 1: a shortage of like forty percent. That's the reason that

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Speaker 1: there's such crazy increases. And we've had shortages in the

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Speaker 1: economy now for two years. We've had bad corporate planning,

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Speaker 1: and we've had over financialization. The FED can't do anything

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Speaker 1: that's right about all those things. And she very articulately

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Speaker 1: lays that out here. Yeah, she did this. This was

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Speaker 1: well written, easily, like, very easy for anyone to understand,

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Speaker 1: because she makes the argument very clearly, and I mean

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Speaker 1: it goes a lot of what we've been saying on

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Speaker 1: this show. Frankly, we played for you before that moment

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Speaker 1: when she questioned Federal Reserve Chairman J Powell about so,

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Speaker 1: hiking interest rates by the FED, is that going to

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Speaker 1: deal with increased gas prices? Is that going to deal

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Speaker 1: with supply chain shocks? And he very honestly said no.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, okay, she lays down here, she says,

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Speaker 1: all right, So then if raising interest rates by the Fed,

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Speaker 1: if that doesn't solve these underlying issues that are actually

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Speaker 1: made problem right now, what do they actually do? And

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Speaker 1: she says when the FED raises interest rates, increasing the

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Speaker 1: cost of borrowing money, it becomes more expensive for businesses

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Speaker 1: to invest in their operations. As a result, employers will

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Speaker 1: slow hiring, cut hours, and fire workers, leaving families with

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Speaker 1: less money. In the bloodless language of economists, that's referred

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Speaker 1: to as dampening demand. But make no mistake, if the

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Speaker 1: FED cuts too much or too abruptly, the resulting recession

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Speaker 1: will leave millions of people, disproportionately lower wage workers and

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Speaker 1: workers of color, with smaller paychecks or no paycheck at all.

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Speaker 1: So making it clear that listen. As bad as the

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Speaker 1: inflation situation is, the inflation continuing to soar on top

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Speaker 1: of a recession is a way worse situation. She closes

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Speaker 1: by saying, before the Federal Reserve triggers a recession, mister

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Speaker 1: pal should remember that the one medicine in his kit

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Speaker 1: does not treat every economic illness. Low unemployment and high

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Speaker 1: inflation are painful, but a FED manufactured recession that puts

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Speaker 1: millions of Americans out of work without addressing high prices

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Speaker 1: would be far worse. And as I pointed to before,

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Speaker 1: the Washing Post has an article pointing to some of

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Speaker 1: these signs that the job market is starting to slow down.

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Speaker 1: In other words, that yes, not only are we going

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Speaker 1: to have two quarters of GDP contraction, which is the

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Speaker 1: sort of standard issue definition of a recession, but even

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Speaker 1: the metrics that the White House is using here are

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Speaker 1: heading in the wrong direction. Let's go ahead and throw

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Speaker 1: this up on the screen. This is according to the

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Speaker 1: Washington Posts. They say the job market is beginning to

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Speaker 1: show cracks. Job growth is slowing, vacancies are down, and

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Speaker 1: unemployment claims are ticking up. They point in particular to

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Speaker 1: the tech sector, which has of course taken a beating

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Speaker 1: in terms of the stock market. We're going to get

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Speaker 1: a lot of earnings out this week to get a

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Speaker 1: better picture even of what's going on there. Soccer talked

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Speaker 1: about some of this in his monologue yesterday. They say

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Speaker 1: that tech hiring has fallen nine percent in just the

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Speaker 1: past month. That's compared with a five point four percent

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Speaker 1: dip in hiring across all industries. Number of tech firms

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Speaker 1: and startups laying off workers has picked up in recent weeks.

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Speaker 1: You've had Netflix, Tesla, Coinbase all announcing job cuts or

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Speaker 1: hiring freezes. Vimeo, the online video platform, and one time

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Speaker 1: tech Darling announced this week it is laying off six

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Speaker 1: percent of their staff. They also interview a lot of

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Speaker 1: job recruiters and ordinary workers. Some people who when the

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Speaker 1: job market was super hot, switched jobs were actually recruited

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Speaker 1: into new jobs with big pay increases and exciting new

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Speaker 1: roles and responsibilities, only to see themselves laid off months

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Speaker 1: later because of fears of recession and because of the

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Speaker 1: fact that everything is slowing down. So even the one

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Speaker 1: number that the White House really loves to point to

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Speaker 1: and highlight, the low unemployment number, that is also beginning

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Speaker 1: to show signs of cracking. And as I mentioned before,

431
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 1: new unemployment claims are ticking up. Not a good sign. Yeah.

432
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 1: The stuff that I pay even more attention to is

433
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: like the candy point here Convene seven to eleven, eight

434
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: hundred workers at the corporate level, Ford eight thousand positions

435
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 1: in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Rivian, the electric car maker,

436
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: down seven hundred delivery down. That thing is always going

437
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: to mess though, hasn't it right? Yeah, although I'm going

438
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: to say this, you know, like bezos aside, the Rivian

439
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 1: looks cool. I've never driven one. I saw one on

440
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 1: the road. It looks sweet. However, the mortgage lender loan

441
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: Depot forty eight hundred jobs gone ahead and slashed this year.

442
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 1: So it's not just tech, and this stuff will bleed

443
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: into the broader economy, especially if it hits manufacturing. And

444
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: why this is such a tragedy is we are finally

445
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 1: building more stuff in America for the first time yea,

446
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: in several years, the supply chain crisis, the tariffs, all

447
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: of it. For the first year on record, we actually

448
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: brought more manufacturing back to the United States. They said

449
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: it couldn't be done people, Well, we proved them that

450
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: we actually could. And now all of a sudden decrease

451
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: in demand, specifically FED policy would absolutely hammer many of

452
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: these new jobs and would frankly only increase the pressure

453
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,479
Speaker 1: on the White House right now in order to remove tariffs,

454
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: to outsource even more and to cut costs, because I

455
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: think that's the other point that we should remember, which

456
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: is that manufacturing investment and all of that doesn't just

457
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 1: come out of capital. It comes out of your ability

458
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: to borrow. And if borrowing is way more expensive, you

459
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: can't hire more people, and you can't invest in your

460
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 1: future workforce. And we already know what Wall Street is

461
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: going to do. They're going to cut jobs, try and

462
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: buy back their own stock in order to try and

463
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 1: save their pensions and all this other stuff. But none

464
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: of that translates into a better economic future. I think

465
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,719
Speaker 1: for people it's a grim picture, it really is. And

466
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: the high level view is that the reason why they

467
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: are leaning so heavily on this, as Elizabeth Warren puts it,

468
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: this medicine that is not the right cure for the

469
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 1: disease that ails us, is because the only institutions that

470
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 1: still function, that still function, and I mean function in

471
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: terms of actually being able to do anything, are basically

472
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 1: the ones that are beholden to rich people. Also, not

473
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: only all of an undemocratic right I mean, and everything

474
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: else has been completely unintentionally by the way hamstrung, gridlocked

475
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: made so it, you know, is not responsive to the

476
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 1: people whatsoever. And so the only institutions that are left

477
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: that actually have power and are able to operate, not

478
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 1: in a good fashion, but able to operate are the

479
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: ones that have been sort of designed by and for

480
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: rich people, the FED being key among those. All right,

481
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: let's move on to what's going on with our former

482
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: and potentially future president Trump. Some shots fired from Trump

483
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: at his former friends over at Fox and Friends. I

484
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 1: guess now it's no longer Fox and Friends of Trump

485
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 1: and yeah, Fox and Box former friends gun and put

486
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. He sent out a truth

487
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: saying true, but the Fox, everything's wrong with that? I mean,

488
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: for a man who's so good at branding, he really screwy,

489
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: really dropped the ball in this anyway. He says, Fox

490
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: and Friends just really botched my poll numbers, no doubt

491
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: on purpose. That show has been terrible. Gone to the

492
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 1: quote dark side. They quickly quote the big Turning Point

493
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: poll victory of almost sixty points over the number two Republican.

494
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: Funny he won't say DeSantis's name and then hammer me

495
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: with out liars. Actually, almost all poles have me leading

496
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: all Republicans and Biden by a lot. Rhyano Paul Ryan,

497
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 1: one of the weakest and worst speakers ever, must be

498
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: running the place anyway, Thank you to Turning Point. The

499
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: crowd and love he puts in quotes was amazing in

500
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: all caps classic Trump. A couple things to note about

501
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: what he says there. First of all, as I said, funny,

502
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: this says the number two Republican, which is Ron de Santis.

503
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: Second of all, I think the police referring to as

504
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: like a straw pole at the Turning Points conference whatever.

505
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: In terms of him, you know, overall, how he's doing

506
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: the polls. He's definitely still leading the Republican field by

507
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 1: quite a lot. He's right about that. Most of the

508
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: poles had to head against Biden, though, are pretty much

509
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: neck and neck. Most of the ones that I've seen

510
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: have Biden with a small edge over Trump. So he's

511
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: not correct about that one. But the bigger question here,

512
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 1: which has been sparked over the past several weeks, is

513
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 1: whether there is a true schism between Trump and the

514
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: Murdoch family, which of course owns Fox News. Not to

515
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: mention Wall Street Journal, New York Post and other outlets

516
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: around the world. Oh, the one other thing to note

517
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 1: about his truth there is he mentions Paul Ryan. That's

518
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: because Paul Ryan now sits on the board of Fox News.

519
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 1: So he's sort of laying the blame at Paul Ryan's

520
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: feeve and saying, oh, they're taking this anti Trump turn

521
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 1: because of that. Fuel to the fire of the idea

522
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: that there might be some sort of split between the

523
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: Murdochs and Trump is the fact, and that's put this

524
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: next piece up on the screen. Both the Wall Street

525
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: Journal and the New York Post, again Murdoch owned papers,

526
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,479
Speaker 1: published op eds critical, very critical of Trump and his

527
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: behavior on January sixth. The Wall Street Journal, which of

528
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: course is sort of the mouthpiece to the business community, says,

529
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: the brute facts remained. Mister Trump took an oh to

530
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: defend the constitution. He had a duty as commander in

531
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: chief to protect the capital from a mob attacking it

532
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: in his name. He refused. They went on to say

533
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: that Trump utterly failed his uh character, you know, his

534
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: test of character in this crisis, while Pence past his

535
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: January sixth trial. So interesting developments here now in terms

536
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: of Fox News, they've been more, you know, just continuing

537
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: down the path of supporting Trump and backing him up,

538
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: and a lot of their personality is very much, you know,

539
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: downplaying January six not talking about it, not covering it,

540
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: all of those things. But it is kind of interesting

541
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: to see here. And my guess saga is that the

542
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: Murdochs and the Fox News brass they would rather have

543
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: someone other than Trump, just like they would have rather

544
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: had someone other than Trump back at twenty sixteen. Are

545
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: they going to go like hard to the matt to

546
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: try to prop up a Rond DeSantis or anyone else. No, Well,

547
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: it is a little bit of a trial. It's complicated,

548
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 1: and that's why I think you phrase it correctly, which

549
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: is that they'll do everything in their power in the

550
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: very very early stages to make sure that Trump doesn't win. However,

551
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: they need ratings and their base loves Trump, you know.

552
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz had a very interesting this I think it

553
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: was like twenty seventeen, where he gave a retrospective and

554
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: he said that one of the major deathnells to his

555
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: campaign was November twenty fifteen, whenever Murdoch and Trump and

556
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: Fox decided to go all in for Trump. Previous remember,

557
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: I mean, Megan Kelly was critical of Trump. Obviously, there

558
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: was quite a bit of anti Trump sentiment on Fox News,

559
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,479
Speaker 1: at least it was allowed, and Ales was still running

560
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 1: the network at that time. But Ted Cruz, very very

561
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: in name, which almost never happens, actually went after Roger

562
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 1: Ailes and was like, Roger Ales turned on me November

563
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. I do got to say, though, that's also

564
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: at the time when Trump really almost surged to the

565
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: very top of the polls. I don't know if people

566
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: remember fifteen November twenty fifteen was San Bernardino, and that

567
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: is what led to the Muslim band. Whatever you think

568
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: of that, it was very popular amongst Republican voters. And

569
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: that's really what surged him all the way to the

570
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: top and encouraged some of the tabloid treatment. And whenever

571
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: Ales and others saw the way that Trump raided with

572
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: the audience, they just decided to go all in for him.

573
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: But right now you fly this and I found it fascinating,

574
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: which is that Fox basically aired a three minute commercial

575
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: for Ron DeSantis where they started interviewing all of these

576
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: Trump voters who said that they wouldn't vote for Trump.

577
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: So we've cut like a minute and a half of

578
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: this thing. Why don't you guys all just take a listen,

579
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: because it's remarkable that this aired on the Fox News

580
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: channel in the year twenty twenty two. Let's take a listen. Yes,

581
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: I don't want him to like what he stands for,

582
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: it like what he does, but he upset too many

583
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: people and he said really bad, so I don't think

584
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: he's good for the party. He needs to get back

585
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: in that he already had gains out of respect from

586
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: all the world of years and finish what he started.

587
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: It's too bad that he did what he did do

588
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: and was fought all the way along star near everything

589
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: that he did. But that's what happened. So I'd like

590
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: to see him not rent. If he did, I would

591
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: vote for him, but I would not recommend he runs.

592
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: I voted for some both times, and I love him.

593
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: I think he was a good candidate, but I think

594
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: his time has passed. I couldn't care less about President

595
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: Trump personally. I'd prefer somebody different. But if he is

596
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: now many have probably got for him. You know what,

597
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: I voted for him for my very first time. I

598
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: voted for him. I don't think it'll be best for

599
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: our country for him to run for reelection. You know,

600
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: I'm thank Forravitsk that he's done, but I think our

601
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: Republican party needs to be united at this point. He's

602
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: a little too polarizing, and I think that there are

603
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: candidates out there, Republican candidates obviously, that maybe be able

604
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 1: to pull in people that he would lose to be

605
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 1: able to change this. I would like to see, you know,

606
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: Governor DeSantis or someone like that, some some new blood

607
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: in the race President if he wanted, then you can

608
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: pick up Donald as the vice president. Work from Florida.

609
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 1: DeSantis is slipig fans of the Samus on this one.

610
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: He seeks to get much more common sense and people

611
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: communicate better to both sides to get those people back

612
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: than this switch. Got it crazy. I think it's like

613
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: a DeSantis campaign at Yeah, they literally put his face

614
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: up there like this, and then they just interview after

615
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: interview after I'm like, wow, I mean, and you know

616
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: this has to be cherry pick, because I mean, Trump

617
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: was just in Arizona an incredibly racous response. His candidate

618
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: for governor is ahead by twelve points in the polls, Like,

619
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: clearly there's still a lot of affinity for Trump in Arizona.

620
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: Of course there is. I mean, there's no question. I

621
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: mean he has. Look, I mean, people, for all the

622
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: New Hampshire polls and others that we've pointed to, there

623
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: are many other poles, including out of New Hampshire, which

624
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: show him winning by a massive and wide margin. So again,

625
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: look black Swan event aside, I just don't think that

626
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis could beat him in a Republican primary. And

627
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: I think the other reason that people should think is

628
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: there's no world where Ron DeSantis is the only person

629
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: running against Trump. As I've said, there are already open

630
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: indications Ron de Santis may run against Trump, but he's

631
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: not the only one Mike Pence, which we're about to

632
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: get to Mike Pompeo. Apparently he's been telling billionaire donors

633
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: that he thinks he can beat Trump, and the Iowa

634
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: Cock says, the level of delusion. I would love to know.

635
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: I think to have this like level of delusional self confidence,

636
00:31:58,040 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 1: just for one day, I'd like to know what that

637
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,959
Speaker 1: feels like to be president. You simply have to have that,

638
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: you know. That's what people always say, which is that

639
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: Peter Baker who was talking about previously interviewed like seven presidents.

640
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: He's like, the only thing that unites them is that

641
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: they're all egomaniacs. Definitely true God's gift. Absolutely. I mean

642
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: there's no other way that you sacrifice your entire family

643
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: life in order to become the president. I mean, Hence

644
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: literally thinks he is God's gift. Yeah, he thinks he's

645
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: on a mission from God to be president. You know,

646
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: so did George W. Bush. Robney thought the same thing.

647
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: Robney thought he was like the fulfillment of some prophecy.

648
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 1: There's a psychology to this which I don't think a

649
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: lot of us will ever understand. But that's why they

650
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: are who they are and we are who we are.

651
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: One other thing I want to say about the Fox

652
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 1: News piece before we move on, because it is I mean,

653
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: the arc of Trump and his relationship with Fox News

654
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 1: is very interesting, right. They were the ones that first

655
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 1: gave him a sort of platform into politics. Eleven. Yeah,

656
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: I mean he would come on I think it was

657
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: Fox and Friends that he would call into all the time.

658
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: He had a regular segment. This is where he's pushing

659
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: like the Birther conspiracy nonsense. But this really gave him

660
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: sort of traction and a base of support with the

661
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: Republican base that allowed him to kind of fake it

662
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: till he made it, until he actually gained a lot

663
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: of significant support in the Republican primary. And I it

664
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 1: seems to me at this point in terms of Fox

665
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: News and the Republican Party base, they are if they

666
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,479
Speaker 1: were ever able to just completely drive the train in

667
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: whatever direction they wanted, those days are now passed. And

668
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: you saw this very much with Stop this Deal. I

669
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: mean they tried, especially in the early days, to they

670
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: certified Arizona. They were the first ount of the gates.

671
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: People like Brett Bair and others who were there tried

672
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: to press the Trump people and the Trump spokespeople that

673
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 1: they would have on the show about the nonsense that

674
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,959
Speaker 1: they were spewing. But ultimately, you know, they have fallen

675
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 1: more in line with what the base thinks, which is

676
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: believing Trump and believing his conspiracies. So they just try

677
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: not to talk about it much now, but they'll flirt

678
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: with the idea that it was rigged or that it

679
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: was somehow unfair. So I think think that their ability

680
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: to just totally shape sentiment and direction of the of

681
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: the Republican base, I think that's gone. And I really

682
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: think Trump is the one who kind of broke that

683
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, because they did want to go in

684
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 1: a different direction, they were unable to overcome the level

685
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,479
Speaker 1: of intense support that was there among their viewership for Trump.

686
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: I don't think it was just Trump. I think Trump

687
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: came at the perfect time, which was the Internet. I mean,

688
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 1: what people don't forget. I used to work in this,

689
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: so I remember the Daily Caller, which is that the

690
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: in conservative media infrastructure was brand new, and really twenty twelve,

691
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: they didn't play as big of a role because the

692
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 1: Internet at that time and the blog is spared, it

693
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: was not as influential. But I worked at The Daily

694
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 1: Caller in twenty fifteen. We knew in the data in

695
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: like October twenty fifty, they're like, the base loves Trump

696
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: because we knew you could see it literally, and that

697
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: became the vector for spread like spread quote unquote for

698
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 1: Trump support. So it didn't even matter what was happening

699
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: on Fox. People were posting on Facebook, sharing stuff Twitter.

700
00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 1: I mean, online really became the battleground versus Fox. I

701
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: think the Internet just disrupted Fox in the same way

702
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 1: disrupted everything. So but you just Trump is the He's

703
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: a ruler of conservative Internet. Yeah, everybody knows that. And

704
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 1: having been both on the cable news side and now

705
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: in the online media space, you just have so much

706
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: more granular feel for what the you know, what the

707
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: audience is into, what they're excited about, what their emotions

708
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 1: are about any given subject. Whereas Fox News, which for

709
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: a cable news network, has done much better than any

710
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: of their competitors in terms of understanding their audience, you

711
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: still can't come close to the level of sort of

712
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 1: detailed understanding of who your audience is and what they're

713
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: really into. So I think I think that's a really

714
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: great point. Yeah, moving on to one of the would

715
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 1: be contenders against Trump. His former vice president, Mike Pence

716
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 1: is out there. Let's go ahead and put Washington Post

717
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: up on the up on the screen. Pence is out

718
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: there trying his darnedest to find his own lane. The

719
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 1: Washington Post headline here is Pency distance from Trump as

720
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 1: he considers twenty twenty four presidential run. As the January

721
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: sixth Committee focuses on Pence's role in certificing Biden's win,

722
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: the former vice president is making moves toward a campaign,

723
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: whether Trump runs or not. They have some details here

724
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 1: about the workings of this now sort of fully functioning operation.

725
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 1: He is aggressively working to build on a team. They say.

726
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: He's got a nonprofit with a twenty million dollar budget

727
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 1: and a Washington office. He's prepared for a possible announcement

728
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: for president in the spring. So we're looking at, you know,

729
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: less than a year from now, making regular visits to Iowa,

730
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, South Carolina. This was a funny detail. Splurging

731
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: on a fifty four into zero turn. John Deere mower

732
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: he can brag about on the campaign trail, began flying

733
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: commercial again when donors aren't available to lend him a plane,

734
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 1: remarking with surprise to AIDS at how Southwest Airline seats customers. Yeah,

735
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: shut the game for a while. I actually like the

736
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: Southwest model. But we'll table that for other day. He's

737
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 1: writing two different books that could anchor his next campaign,

738
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: a memoir of his life that's due out this fall,

739
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 1: and a book about his faith journey that's aimed at

740
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: evangelical voters, which he clearly sees as you know, his

741
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: ticket to the White House. And we've tracked here how

742
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: he's as Roe versus Wade was overturned. And you know,

743
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,919
Speaker 1: in these fights, cultural fights, which are in some way

744
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,240
Speaker 1: throwbacks to the past decades. He knows where he stands,

745
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 1: and he is unafraid of being unabashedly on the far

746
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: right of cultural conservative cultural conservatism when it comes to

747
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 1: gay marriage and abortion in particular, he's expected to offer

748
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 1: his most extensive and critical comments about Trump and January

749
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: sixth in that forthcoming memoir, he got a nice little

750
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 1: seven figure book contract from Simon and Schuster because he

751
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 1: vowed to be so open about it. But to me,

752
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: the soccer the most important detail from this piece was

753
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: they talked to a polster she's an anti Trump Republican strategist,

754
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: So this is someone who would like to see Pence

755
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 1: or someone like him get some traction in order to

756
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: get away from Trump. She's been doing focus groups of

757
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: a woman named Sarah Longwell, and she says Pence's name

758
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 1: is almost never volunteered as a preferred alternative candidate, to

759
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: the extent that people are offering an alternative name, it's

760
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis. She says, quote, we ask people, so what

761
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: about Mike Pence, and you get a lot of eh.

762
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: She said, that's the sound people make eh. And I

763
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: think that kind of says it all. That does says

764
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: it all. I don't know. I mean, there's as we

765
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: were just talked about previously, there is obviously a massive

766
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: level of delusion to even think that you could do this,

767
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 1: which is probably a prerequisite for the job, but you

768
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: should also have some level of rationality. And a lot

769
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: of this war has now broken out into the public sphere,

770
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: with the MAGA world really making sure that they're going

771
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,760
Speaker 1: after Pence because Pence, remember this, he not only campaigned

772
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 1: for Brian Kemp, but he's been endorsing alternative slates of candidates,

773
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: often not the same as Donald Trump, he's been making

774
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 1: inroads with the Heritage Foundation, He's been giving speeches kind

775
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 1: of with the Conservative ink quote unquote of all of

776
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: the high dollar donors who've always liked Mike Pence to

777
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 1: everybody thinks he's honorable for January sixth, et cetera. But

778
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: nobody seems to understand the political realities of all of this.

779
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: But if you want to know what the party faithful think,

780
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: check this out. Matt Gates attacking Mike Pence on the

781
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: stage at Sea Pack and listen to the audience. On

782
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: that note, let me just say what everybody here knows.

783
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 1: Mike Pence will never be president, Nice Scott, not a leader.

784
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 1: There you go, that's the that's the reds there. And

785
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: at the same time, Chrystal, we had Mike Pence. So

786
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: this is now kind of erupting into open warfare. Mike

787
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 1: Pence's former chief advisor, Mark Short, longtime kind of coke guy,

788
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 1: he worked for Mike Pence while he was in the

789
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: White House. He then went after Matt Gates, erupting into

790
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: open warfare on the airwaves. Let's take a listen to that.

791
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: Mike Pence will never be president, Nice Scott not a

792
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: leader Mark Well. I don't know if Mike penc will

793
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: run for president of twenty twenty four, but I don't

794
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 1: think Matt Gates will have an impact on that. In fact,

795
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: i'd be surprised if he was still voting. It's more

796
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: likely he'll be in prison for child sex trafficking by

797
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and I'm actually surprised if Florida law

798
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 1: enforcement still allows him to speak to teenage conferences like that.

799
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 1: So I'm not too worried about Matt Gates things. Wow,

800
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 1: child sex trafficking, not being on stage in front teenagers

801
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: a great burn, no doubt. However, you got to admit

802
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: the basis definitely on Matt Gates society here. I mean,

803
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,720
Speaker 1: there's just no question. And the eruption of this really

804
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 1: just gives me twenty fifteen vibes. I'm like, Pence, what

805
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 1: are you smoking? Men like, Yeah, No, you're not gonna win. Okay,

806
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: I don't believe what I'm about to say, but I'm

807
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: gonna make the I'm gonna be the Devil's advocate and

808
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 1: make the case for Pence, which is that you know,

809
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: the thing I've been saying with DeSantis is what is

810
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: the case you're gonna make against Trump, because you have

811
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: to convince people that they need to go in another direction.

812
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: And it's not clear to me that this idea of like, oh,

813
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: high brow version of Trump is really what the majority

814
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 1: of the Republican base is after. There is a subset

815
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: and we're seeing that already of largely college educated voters

816
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: who are saying sort of like what the was said

817
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: in that Fox News montage, he's too divisive. We want

818
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: to go in another direction. But a lot of people

819
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: are there for the divisive. They're there for the you know,

820
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: owning the Libs and the causing everybody to melt down

821
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 1: on cable news. I mean, to me, that is the

822
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: best part of Trump, right, and I think that's the

823
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 1: case for a lot of his base. Pence, I understand

824
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: how he could have a critique of Trump, and that's

825
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: not focused on January six. You're not going to make

826
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: an effect of January six case against Trump. That's not

827
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: going to be the way to go. Even as I

828
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 1: do think that January six has kind of damaged his

829
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 1: image broadly with the general public and with some segments

830
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: of the Republican base. Certainly with the Republican establishment. That's

831
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: not going to be the root. Pence though, if these

832
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: battles over abortion, gay marriage, if that is the battleground

833
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 1: that's being fought over right now, is very very comfortable

834
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: and very willing to go further on those issues, and

835
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: with a lot more credibility than Trump at this point.

836
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: So I do see more of how he could get

837
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: to Trump's right on some issues where he has sort

838
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 1: of core credibility and which are central to his you know,

839
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 1: evangelical worldview for forever. But ultimately, do I think that

840
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: that's what's going to decide the Republican primary. I don't.

841
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: It's only twenty something percent of the base at the

842
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: end of the day. The vast majority of the people

843
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: who love Trump, they're non college educated, wise, and not

844
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: particularly religious. They identify as quote Christian, but they don't

845
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: really go to church. And Trump has the Trump card

846
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: sorry of being able to say I put these justices

847
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: on which is true, that was me. So if you're

848
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: happy with how this all went down, you have me

849
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,959
Speaker 1: to thank for it. Of all the groups that make

850
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 1: up the you know coalition of the Republican Party, the

851
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: white evangelical base has been his most lockstep hardest supporters

852
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: because of exactly this reason. You know, they've been trying

853
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: to get to the promised land of the super conservative

854
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 1: Supreme Court that would overturn rovers has weighed for literally

855
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 1: fifty years. Trump got them there. So that's why I

856
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: don't think that Pence is going to be able to

857
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 1: really penetrate with that argument. And I also just think

858
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 1: stylistically he's such a throwback. You know, he really feels

859
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: like it's like a George W. Bush compassionate. I mean,

860
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: he almost feels like like a late nineties kind of

861
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 1: Republican conservative or yeah, George W. Bush air. I mean,

862
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 1: it just doesn't feel like the vibe or the esthetic

863
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: of the Republican base today. So I completely agree. I

864
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: don't think he has a chance in hell, but I

865
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 1: guess it'll be fun in order to watch it all

866
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 1: play out on cable news. Okay, let's go ahead and

867
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 1: talk about the Nordstream pipeline. We guys brought We brought

868
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 1: you all the news that Nordstream and Russia had decided

869
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,839
Speaker 1: to turn the pipeline back on after shutting down for

870
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: eleven days. This is a high stakes game because Germany

871
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: gets the vast majority of its natural gas supply, which

872
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: is predominant use for consumer power from Russia. However, some

873
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 1: news actually just broke that, let's put this up there

874
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: on the screen. Russia, while it has gone ahead and

875
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: restarted the nord Stream pipeline, they have cut an additional

876
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 1: twenty percent of the gas supply to Germany. This brings

877
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: the total to nearly eighty percent cut to the German

878
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: consumer since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, which

879
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think it takes a genius to

880
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: figure out that an eighty percent drop in the supply

881
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: of natural gas when the vast majority of your gas

882
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: is coming from a country, is a huge problem, both

883
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: from an energy perspective, but also for natural gas markets

884
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 1: in general, and it is leading to all sorts of

885
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: insanity in Germany we've talked about. They're already in phase

886
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 1: two of their energy cut plan. Phase three requires actual blackouts.

887
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 1: It's already destroying the German economy, German manufacturing and the

888
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,959
Speaker 1: trade deficit has gone reversed for the first time since

889
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties, and it's an outright political and economic

890
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: catastroph You're for them if they're beginning to slide we're

891
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: seeing problems with the Eurozone. Given that German banks and

892
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: Germany is the most powerful actor within the eurosystem, this

893
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 1: has all kinds of spillover effects on the natural gas markets.

894
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: It also is having a major impact. Let's put this

895
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: up there on the screen from the Financial Times, which

896
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 1: is that traders are expecting European gas prices to remain

897
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: elevated for years to come. And again, why does this matter.

898
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: One of the benefits of natural gas and LNG was

899
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: that it was cheap and its cheap ability to supply

900
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: power and influence manufacturing in Germany, not just Germany, Pakistan, Thailand,

901
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: many other Asian countries across the globe. We're having access

902
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 1: to this cheaper power, which also I believe it's carbon

903
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 1: emissions are something like fifty percent or whatever of coal

904
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 1: fired plants, so it was better for the climate and

905
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 1: it was cheaper. Well, the increase in the price, and

906
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: given the ability and the conscious decision to cut ourselves

907
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: off from Russian gas, has now made it so that

908
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: the West is going to be paying sky high natural

909
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 1: gas prices. This also impacts us here at home because

910
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 1: some forty something percent of power crystal in twenty twenty

911
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: one came from natural gas, and natural gas is a

912
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: globally traded commodity. We ship out huge portions of our

913
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: natural gas to the global market, and then you put

914
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 1: everything on top the rush. The germ of the EU

915
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 1: decided today this morning, this news just broke, has agreed

916
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 1: to a sweeping curb on natural gas usage. So the

917
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 1: EU has come together and said that they are going

918
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: to cut natural gas consumption between now and spring by

919
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: a total of fifteen percent. This is being billed to

920
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: the global community as we're standing up to Russia. But

921
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: if you care about carbon emissions, this is a disaster

922
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 1: because at the very same time that they are curbing

923
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 1: fifteen percent of natural gas, guess what, The Germans are

924
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,240
Speaker 1: going to continue to decommission nuclear power plants, which leaves

925
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: you one option coal, So they are going to be

926
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: burning coal out the water, and they don't even have

927
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: enough coal in order to do so. So they're inducing

928
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 1: an energy crisis on their own shores, increasing their carbon emissions,

929
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: and frankly, they're making the entire world less safe as

930
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 1: a result of all of us. All in order to

931
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 1: quote own Putin and reduce his ability to screw with them,

932
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 1: but the truth is fifteen percent is still not going

933
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 1: to cut it. If Putin wants to cut them off,

934
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 1: they're still screwed even if they try and reduce their

935
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: natural gasketing. And that's exactly what he's doing, is yeah,

936
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 1: he's toying with them. Yeah, he wants I mean Russian

937
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 1: The Russians are saying like, oh, this is just about

938
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 1: turbine they do we need yeah, okay, yeah, so they

939
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 1: want they want the Europeans and the Germans in particular,

940
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 1: to know that they have their own weapons at their disposal,

941
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 1: that they can make their people suffer. And there was

942
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 1: a quote in the article actually that we cited yesterday

943
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:52,280
Speaker 1: where one analyst was saying, this is exactly what Putin

944
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 1: wants to achieve. That when we make the next decision

945
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: about arms deliveries to Ukraine, that's somewhere in the back

946
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 1: of our heads, and this is a German analyst, there's

947
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: this thought, well, what is this going to do to

948
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:06,240
Speaker 1: our gas deliveries? Now, personally, I don't think it's wrong

949
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 1: for people to have that thought, right to understand, because

950
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: it's not like the policy that we have pursued has

951
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 1: worked in terms of you know, hurting Putin's bleeding the

952
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 1: warmers to That was the whole idea. You know, this,

953
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: this concept that we could achieve or that the Ukrainians

954
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: backed by our military, you know, by our military might,

955
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 1: would be able to achieve total victory, that does not

956
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: seem anywhere close to able to happen. So I don't

957
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 1: think it's wrong for German citizens or other European citizens

958
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,760
Speaker 1: to weigh the costs and the benefits of the approach,

959
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 1: especially when the approach has been so ineffective thus far. Oh. Absolutely,

960
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:45,839
Speaker 1: And this is going to be like I said, it's

961
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 1: it's not going to solve the problem. You know, reducing

962
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: gas consumption by fifteen percent means a tons of more

963
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 1: coal and carbon being emitted into the atmosphere as long

964
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 1: as they decide not to pursue nuclear. But also fifteen

965
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 1: is just still not going to do anything. It's the

966
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 1: fact is forty percent of all EU gas, not just

967
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 1: Germany EU gas comes from Russia. So fine, you can

968
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 1: cut fifteen percent, that still leads nearly a third of

969
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,840
Speaker 1: your grid vulnerable to what the Russians want to do.

970
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: No country on Earth can survive a one third cut

971
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: in their grid power it's just not possible, especially with

972
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 1: the lack of nuclear capacity. And what are we all

973
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 1: learning here in real time? It takes ten years to

974
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 1: build this shit from LNG terminals, the nuclear power plant, call,

975
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: all of it. It takes decades for investment, shipping things

976
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: across the globe. They're extraordinarily vulnerable. The Russians will still

977
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: be able to influence their economies and wage economic warfare

978
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: if they want. And the price of all of this

979
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: is going to have long time ramifications. You know, oil,

980
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: of course, we all feel that at the pump, but

981
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 1: you absorb increases in natural gas for your heating bills

982
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 1: and others. And the thing that really worries me is

983
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 1: in this article they also talk about from the traders

984
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 1: respective that the inventories are supposed to be very high

985
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,760
Speaker 1: right now because they stock up in the summer while

986
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: winter is going to come. So deal with volatility. Nobody

987
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 1: knows how the hell weather is going to be. I mean,

988
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,720
Speaker 1: right now, there's like a crazy heat wave in Europe

989
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: that doesn't at all rule out a crazy cold spell

990
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 1: that also would happen. And if that happens, you know,

991
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 1: increase in extreme weather events, which we would beginning to

992
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: see more of also within Europe. That's going to be

993
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 1: a real test of their ability to heat their homes.

994
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 1: And it's not a joke because if you have rolling

995
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: blackouts in the middle of winter, old people die, people

996
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 1: literally freeze to death. It happens every year, not just

997
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: from homeless people, but literally anytime there's blackouts, you know,

998
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:43,880
Speaker 1: hospital grids, all that other stuff. So it's a real problem.

999
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 1: The energy blackmail remains carbon wise, it's a real problem,

1000
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,799
Speaker 1: and I just think it really highlights the real just

1001
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 1: hypocrisy and lack of foresight to our overall strategy towards Russia.

1002
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: All of it is signaling we're cutting off the gas,

1003
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 1: but not enough to actually do anything. They're still paying

1004
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: them hundreds of billions of euros and the leverage remains

1005
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: there if they want it. So I don't know, there's

1006
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 1: there's a lot that's happening, But I do want to

1007
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 1: also add on the diplomatic front, it's not like the

1008
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 1: Russians are doing their best in order to try and

1009
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 1: bring an end to this thing. Let's put this up

1010
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: there on the screen. You know, Saragai Lavrov, who is

1011
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: the Foreign Minister of Russia. The top diplomat said yesterday

1012
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: that the Ukraine, the overarching goal of Moscow is to

1013
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 1: quote free its people from an unacceptable regime. So even

1014
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 1: after all this, after their economy has suffered, tens of

1015
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 1: thousands of their troops are dead, tens of thousands of

1016
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 1: Ukrainians are dead, They've been embarrassed on the world stage. Yes,

1017
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 1: they're still printing money, but it hasn't exactly worked out,

1018
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 1: you know, as how they thought it would. They're still

1019
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 1: pursuing regime change in Kiev and trying to oust Zelensky.

1020
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: So it's not like they're giving anything on the diplomatic

1021
00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: front exactly, as long as they want to act like

1022
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:05,359
Speaker 1: this and then bomb stuff in Odessa. Yeah, minutes after

1023
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 1: signing a grain deal, how are we supposed to get

1024
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,359
Speaker 1: to any solution. I think anybody who's like us, who

1025
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: also wants peace should also emphasize, like, man, these damn Russians,

1026
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 1: they're not giving any ground here, Like what are you

1027
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 1: people doing? Yeah, I mean that's exactly right. That doesn't

1028
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: change the fact that our administration's policy should be doing

1029
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 1: everything that is in our power to push for negotiations

1030
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: and diplomatic resolution, because that will be the best thing

1031
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 1: for the world, for the Ukrainians, for our people, etc.

1032
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean there are a lot of openings

1033
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 1: right now. And I think frankly, the Russians feel like

1034
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: they're in a pretty good position. They've weathered a lot

1035
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 1: of the economic storm. They've figured out their strategy in

1036
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 1: terms of waging war using food prices and energy prices,

1037
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 1: which this is again something we said from the beginning

1038
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,879
Speaker 1: of don't fall into the hubris of thinking that your

1039
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: enemy doesn't have any tools and weapons at their disposal

1040
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: to make you pay as well launching all out economic

1041
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 1: warfare against them. Guess what they're going to respond. I mean,

1042
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,759
Speaker 1: this is just this is utterly predictable and it was

1043
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: a tremendous act of hubris to imagine any differently. But yeah,

1044
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:15,720
Speaker 1: I think the Russians feel like they, you know, secured

1045
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: a lot of territory in the eastern part of Ukraine,

1046
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 1: that they're kind of on the offense, that they've got

1047
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: worked down some of their early failures and total embarrassing

1048
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 1: catastrophes and they're pursuing a much more effective strategy now.

1049
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 1: And so why should they feel like, why should we

1050
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 1: negotiate right now when we have the upper hand. So

1051
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways too, I think the moment

1052
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 1: when negotiations would have been more likely that time, when

1053
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,400
Speaker 1: you had Ukrainian side and the Russian side meeting together

1054
00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: in Turkey and there was some actual effort to come

1055
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 1: to a resolution, and the Ukrainians were much more stronger

1056
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 1: on much stronger on the battlefield at that point, I think,

1057
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 1: you know, we didn't want the Ukrainians to strike a

1058
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 1: deal at that point. We didn't put any pressure in

1059
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 1: that direction. So in a lot of ways, that moment

1060
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 1: has been lost, and that that is really truly a tragy.

1061
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:08,760
Speaker 1: That's the moment when Boris Johnson, Prime former Prime Minister

1062
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 1: of the UK went to Kiev specifically to deliver the

1063
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: Messachizolynsky that we were not ready for the war to

1064
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:17,879
Speaker 1: be open. Yeah. I think that's right, and I really

1065
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 1: think unfortunately at this point we are locked in. The

1066
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 1: Russians are not going to give anything their policy. If anything,

1067
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 1: they are now at a point where they see no

1068
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 1: option but to continue this. Also, reporting currently indicates, and

1069
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:30,479
Speaker 1: this is going to be a key thing to watch.

1070
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 1: It broke this morning that the Ukrainians are actually planning

1071
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 1: a major counter attack on the city of Kerson, and

1072
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:40,319
Speaker 1: the fate of that counterattack is going to matter a lot.

1073
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: It will actually give us quite a bit of insight

1074
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 1: into the offensive capability of the Ukrainian military. We have

1075
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 1: now shipped tens of billions of dollars to these people,

1076
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 1: and predominantly all of the stuff we've been giving them

1077
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: is very useful for defense. So if they don't have

1078
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: the ability to mount a capable offensive attack on the

1079
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 1: Russian military and retake this city, well that also spells

1080
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,279
Speaker 1: a lot of questions for what's the future here. I mean,

1081
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 1: we're going to have an endless front line because if

1082
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 1: it ends up being that way, it also could amount

1083
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 1: the ability for the Russians then to counter attack that

1084
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 1: and say, well, we have to keep pushing further because

1085
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are going to attack us. I have no

1086
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's a good thing, like if I

1087
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 1: was Ukraine, I would counterattack. To what I'm saying from

1088
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 1: our perspective is it will give us a real insight

1089
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: into their ability militarily on the ground. So that's another

1090
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 1: thing in order to want realistic for them to retake

1091
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 1: any of the territories. Is it possible loss. And at

1092
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 1: that point, what are they going to say? I mean,

1093
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: I already know what the Hawks are going to say,

1094
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: and that means we need to give them. I mean,

1095
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:46,279
Speaker 1: a realistic analysis will tell us whether that could be

1096
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 1: a demarcation point. But we are not even close to

1097
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 1: the end of this thing. Russians is still saying they

1098
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 1: want regime change in Ukraine. As long as that's the

1099
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 1: default policy, nothing is going to happen, and they're going

1100
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 1: to guarantee the Western reaction. Then the Western reaction is

1101
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 1: guarantee the Russian reaction. It's a mutually reinforcing force which

1102
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 1: makes the world less safe and a lot more people

1103
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: are going to die. I just don't think there's any

1104
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 1: other way that does the sad state of affairs. We

1105
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:09,879
Speaker 1: wanted to update you on something that broke yesterday, which

1106
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: was some major indictments in insider trading scandal, specifically some

1107
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 1: indictments of a US former congressman from Indiana. Let's go

1108
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up on the screen. Ex congressman

1109
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 1: among nine charged in insider trading cases. Here are some

1110
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,959
Speaker 1: of the details. This guy's name is Stephen Bayer. Can't

1111
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 1: make it up. Spelled Buyer was accused in court papers

1112
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 1: of engaging in insider trading during the twenty six point

1113
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 1: five billion dollar merger of Tea Mobile and Sprint that

1114
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 1: was announced back in April twenty eighteen. Basically, he is accused,

1115
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: he denies wrongdoing of misappropriating secrets that he learned as

1116
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: a consultant to cash into the tune of three hundred

1117
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:56,440
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars illegally. He was arrested on Monday

1118
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 1: in his home state of Indiana. When he was in Congress,

1119
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 1: which for a long time from ninety three to twenty eleven,

1120
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 1: all lough and behold, he served on committees with oversight

1121
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 1: over the telecoms industry. So he's, you know, member of

1122
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: Congress overseeing this key committee with regards to telecoms. He leaves,

1123
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 1: he goes to cash in, as members do. But it's

1124
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: not enough for just him just to get like the

1125
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: lobbying gig or whatever. He has to also use this

1126
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 1: insider info that he got allegedly in order to you know,

1127
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 1: buy stock at a key moment before this merger became

1128
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 1: public and cash in, they said. But that's not all.

1129
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: They said that he also engaged in illegal trading in

1130
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen ahead of Navigant Consulting Inks acquisition by consulting

1131
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: and advisory firm guide House documents that he leveraged his

1132
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: work again as a consultant and as a lobbyist to

1133
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: make illegal profits. There's another case in here that I

1134
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 1: wanted to highlight of a dude who was training to

1135
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: be an FBI agent who was also just arrested for

1136
00:57:56,400 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: insider trading. This guy allegedly stole information from his girlfriend

1137
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 1: they're not boyfriend and girlfriend anymore, apparently, who was working

1138
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 1: at a major DC law firm, and according to court papers,

1139
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 1: he and a friend then made more than one point

1140
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 1: four million dollars in illegal profits after he learned that

1141
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 1: Merk was going to acquire Pandeon Therapeutics. I'm sure he

1142
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 1: denies wrongdoing whatever whatever allegedly, and we don't. Everybody's in

1143
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 1: a sit until proven guilty. With regard to the former congressman,

1144
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're engaged in this kind of crooked,

1145
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 1: shady shit once you get out, pretty likely you weren't

1146
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 1: a paragon of moral virtue when you were head of

1147
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 1: this committee and privy to all sorts of insider information

1148
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 1: about what type of legislation that's going to affect the

1149
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 1: industry is going to come down. I think the stuff,

1150
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 1: the details of this are literally like out of a movie,

1151
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 1: because if you see the details on how exactly he

1152
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 1: got the tip that a merger was coming between Sprint

1153
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 1: and T Mobile, it was on the golf course, It's

1154
00:58:56,560 --> 00:59:00,439
Speaker 1: like you couldn't It's literally out of a film. He's

1155
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 1: there working this high level connections and then immediately leaves

1156
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: the golf course the next day, buys a ton of

1157
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 1: stock and makes a profit of nearly one hundred thousand dollars,

1158
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,439
Speaker 1: and then in the same next tip in twenty twenty one,

1159
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 1: makes a profit of two hundred and seven thousand. So

1160
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 1: this is not just like middling stuff. We're talking about

1161
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 1: ten hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. So that

1162
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 1: means that millions of dollars of capital might have even

1163
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 1: been employed again betting on individual stocks. I don't know

1164
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 1: how he possibly thought it wasn't gonna get caught. But

1165
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 1: the other one, I mean, just the arrogance they think

1166
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: the rules. Don't they really that, I mean, oftentimes they don't.

1167
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 1: This is just one where they could prove it right.

1168
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 1: I mean This is just one where they could prove

1169
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,439
Speaker 1: the timing of the deal, the meeting. All of this

1170
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 1: and in fire training is difficult, very hard to be

1171
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 1: because you have to prove that they had confidential information

1172
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 1: and that they acted on that confidential information. It's part

1173
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 1: of the reason why even all this Paul Pelosi stuff,

1174
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 1: it's hard to prove unless you tap the phones of

1175
00:59:57,840 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 1: the speaker of the house. Yeah, and then even then

1176
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 1: you need him on the phone being like I am

1177
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:06,919
Speaker 1: doing this because my wife's stage insider trading right now. Yeah,

1178
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 1: as long as you can incredibly say like oh I

1179
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 1: had non public or I had public access to X

1180
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 1: information and took a bet, it's hard for the SEC

1181
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 1: to win that case against you. This other one of

1182
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:19,440
Speaker 1: the FBI training. I mean, that's literally out of the

1183
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 1: movie Wall Street of going to like your girlfriend's briefcase,

1184
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: like looking at the details and then making a million

1185
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 1: dollars like what, how is this possible? I mean, but

1186
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 1: it does show you that this stuff is alive and well.

1187
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 1: For all of the so called electronic triggers and all

1188
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: that on insider trading, we have people in high levels

1189
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: of authority with connections to power who are using their

1190
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 1: connections abilities. Maybe he used his FBI training or whatever

1191
01:00:47,680 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: to spy on his girlfriend's deil binder, et cetera, in

1192
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 1: order to make themselves l of a lot em the

1193
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 1: things he learned in the FBI training to be able

1194
01:00:56,840 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 1: to spy on his girlfriend. Yeah, smart, I get so

1195
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 1: she did dumpsise. Yeah, they're not no longer together. Good

1196
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 1: for her with regard to the Congress, And I also

1197
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:12,800
Speaker 1: think it exposes this mentality that Dan Crenshaw accidentally revealed

1198
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:14,959
Speaker 1: of like, well, I mean, if we can't tread stock,

1199
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 1: how are we going to better ourselves. It's the sense

1200
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:22,640
Speaker 1: of entitlement that their position, you know, having attained this

1201
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:25,959
Speaker 1: office of quote unquote public service, they have this sense

1202
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: of entitlement that they should be able to profit off

1203
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 1: of that position, and not just a little bit to

1204
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:34,760
Speaker 1: the tune of hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars.

1205
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 1: It's not enough for this guy that he could go

1206
01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 1: and then cash in in what I consider to be

1207
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 1: a disgusting way, becoming a lobbyist and consultant to industry,

1208
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 1: a total revolving door. After being the head of the

1209
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 1: committee that was, you know, charged with regulating this industry,

1210
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 1: then you walk across the street and you cash in

1211
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:55,640
Speaker 1: on that quote unquote expertise. That's gross enough, and in

1212
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: my opinion, should be illegal as well. But that wasn't enough. No,

1213
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:02,000
Speaker 1: then you have to go above and beyond and use

1214
01:02:02,720 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 1: insider information to illegally acquire an additional three hundred thousand

1215
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 1: some dollars in profits. I think that just speaks to

1216
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 1: a really endemic mentality here in Washings. Pelosi said the

1217
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 1: same thing when she was initially asked about Hey, should

1218
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 1: spouse's beach be banned from trading stocks? And she's like, no,

1219
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 1: it's free. They should be able to participate in the

1220
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 1: free market. Sense of entitlement to being able to cash

1221
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,480
Speaker 1: in on these positions, complete loss of the idea that

1222
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 1: this is supposed to be public service. You are supposed

1223
01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 1: to be there to serve the public, not to better

1224
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: yourself or play in the free market. But that's not

1225
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 1: the way that these people see their jobs. They don't.

1226
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 1: And this guy served in Congress for nearly twenty years,

1227
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 1: had in I mean shady enough that you preside over

1228
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 1: the Telecom Committee and now you work for the telecom industry,

1229
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 1: and then you use your work in the telecom industry

1230
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 1: to trade on inside information. So look, my only advice

1231
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:57,920
Speaker 1: or my only you know, input on this would tell

1232
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 1: the SEC hey start going out after active congressmen and

1233
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: see what they're working on. I would love to see

1234
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 1: more of that information. We never got any update, by

1235
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 1: the way, on the Richard Burr case. You know, remember

1236
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 1: the FBI ses his phones. They never gave us an

1237
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 1: yeah to date yet, I mean, there's still a hell

1238
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,560
Speaker 1: of a lot more to investigate on what was happening there. Yeah,

1239
01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 1: that's true. And you know, I know that they tend

1240
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 1: to be very conservative in terms like cautious in terms

1241
01:03:24,120 --> 01:03:28,160
Speaker 1: of going after members of Congress, especially if they aren't

1242
01:03:28,160 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 1: one hundred percent convinced that they can actually prove insider trading,

1243
01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 1: which again is very heart high bar. You have to

1244
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:37,280
Speaker 1: essentially have, like you know, direct wire tapped information about

1245
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: what you received and that it was non public and

1246
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 1: that you traded based on that. But I don't think

1247
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 1: it's a bad thing to have some investigations to you know,

1248
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: really make people feel like they are being watched and

1249
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 1: they are under scrutiny. In a lot of ways, the

1250
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 1: public has done some of that by really closely tracking

1251
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 1: the stock trades of these members of Congress and letting

1252
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 1: them know they're not going to be able to just

1253
01:03:58,000 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 1: get away with it and not have to answer for

1254
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 1: that's an important step forward. Enforcement is important. So this

1255
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 1: is a good first step. But let's start going after

1256
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 1: the actual governments. Yes, okay, let's talk about Ukraine. This

1257
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 1: is a really troubling development, and you should be able

1258
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 1: to both separate the obvious view that the Russian invasion

1259
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 1: of Ukraine is unjust from your also ability to critique

1260
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian government and the way that it acts domestically.

1261
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 1: They are not holy gods. They are able to criticize them,

1262
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 1: supposedly as allies. Given that we provide them billions of dollars,

1263
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 1: we should probably hold them to a standard of which

1264
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:33,640
Speaker 1: we try to hold all of people who are in

1265
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: the West. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian government has really pursued something

1266
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 1: that I find very troubling. Let's put this up there

1267
01:04:40,400 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 1: on the screen. They have issued a quote blacklist of

1268
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 1: Russian propagandists. And this was from the Center for Countering

1269
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 1: Disinformation established in twenty twenty one, familiar under President Zelenski

1270
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 1: and headed by a former lawyer who sits on the

1271
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 1: National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and its aim

1272
01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:03,360
Speaker 1: is to quote detect, encounter propaganda and destructive disinformation and

1273
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 1: to prevent the quote manipulation of public opinion. Well, on

1274
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 1: July fourteenth, it went ahead and published a list of politicians, academics,

1275
01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:18,160
Speaker 1: activists that they say are quote promoting Russian propaganda, including

1276
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:22,120
Speaker 1: some not only Western intellectuals but politicians. So let me

1277
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:25,000
Speaker 1: read you some of the lists. Rand Paul the current

1278
01:05:25,160 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 1: Republican senator, former congresswoman Tulsey Gabbard, military and geopolitical analyst,

1279
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 1: Edward Lutwalk, realist and political scientist John Mersheimer, and finally

1280
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 1: heterodox journalist Glenn Greenwald. Now, again the criteria for the

1281
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 1: inclusion is completely unclear. They simply label them in a

1282
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:52,600
Speaker 1: list of having quote pro Russian opinions. Now I love

1283
01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:56,920
Speaker 1: this because really dig into what exactly the reasons for

1284
01:05:57,000 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 1: being labeled this are. Edward Lutwalk, for example, was labeled

1285
01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 1: a Russian propagandis for suggesting that referendums should be held

1286
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:10,439
Speaker 1: in the Donetsk and Lahansk regions. Mersheimer is recorded as

1287
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 1: a Russian propagandis for saying this quote NATO has been

1288
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 1: in Ukraine since twenty fourteen, and for saying quote NATO

1289
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 1: provoked Putin as far as Greenwald and others, they don't

1290
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:27,360
Speaker 1: even give a proper reason. And I really think that

1291
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 1: going through the details of this matters because the quote

1292
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 1: Russian propagandist label is thrown out willy nilly, But the

1293
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: Ukrainian government is taking its cue from the Twitter activists

1294
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 1: and the Western intellectuals. You're in Washington, and Edward Luitwok

1295
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 1: actually gives perfect a perfect retort. He says, from twenty

1296
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 1: fourth to February, day one of the war, I have

1297
01:06:49,000 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: relentlessly argued not just the United States, the UK, Norway

1298
01:06:52,560 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 1: and others should send weapons to Ukraine, but also called

1299
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 1: out the reluctance of France, Germany and Italy to do so.

1300
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 1: I have personally lobbied the defense ministers of NATO countries

1301
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 1: to send more weapons as the part of a war effort.

1302
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:11,640
Speaker 1: I am not exactly Putin's most faithful agent. What's happened

1303
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:14,080
Speaker 1: is this, I said, there is victory party, and the

1304
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 1: victory party is not realistic. Their idea is if Russia

1305
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 1: can be defeated, then Putin will fall. This is also

1306
01:07:19,280 --> 01:07:22,600
Speaker 1: a moment when nuclear escalations becomes a feasibility. It is

1307
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:25,960
Speaker 1: a fantasy to believe Russia can be squarely defeated in Kiev.

1308
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,760
Speaker 1: They have interpreted this stance as meaning I am pro Russia.

1309
01:07:29,280 --> 01:07:32,600
Speaker 1: I think that's the perfect example giving a realistic analysis.

1310
01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: Edward Lukwok is an American strategist. He's trying to think

1311
01:07:35,560 --> 01:07:38,000
Speaker 1: about what is best for the United States, best for peace.

1312
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 1: He's not Ukrainian, and it's not his job to faithfully

1313
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:44,320
Speaker 1: tout the Ukrainian party line. Same when we think about

1314
01:07:44,400 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 1: John Meherscheimer, and we played even the clip here. Meerscheimer

1315
01:07:47,840 --> 01:07:51,080
Speaker 1: is a realist. He's long been against NATO expansion, but

1316
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 1: by the same definition of John Mehersheimer, John Meherscheimer as

1317
01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 1: a quote Russian propagandist. Well, then George Kennan, the fi

1318
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:03,640
Speaker 1: of containment against the Cold War, a victory against the

1319
01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 1: Soviet Union. He wrote the same thing in the nineteen

1320
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:09,360
Speaker 1: nineties in the New York Times. Well, by the way,

1321
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 1: Meerscheimer was way more correct about last. He actually predicted

1322
01:08:14,040 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 1: very accurately this exact sequence of events. So while no,

1323
01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:20,799
Speaker 1: I don't co sign everything that he says, the idea

1324
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:24,200
Speaker 1: that he should be blacklisted. He's a Russian. It is crazy.

1325
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:26,599
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe the most disturbing one is actually Senator

1326
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:31,640
Speaker 1: Ran Paul states politicians, well exactly. I mean, whatever you

1327
01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 1: think of any of these characters and their views on

1328
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:37,000
Speaker 1: the issues, we have to be able to have a

1329
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:40,919
Speaker 1: debate that takes into account what the enemy is thinking

1330
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 1: as well, Rand Paul, you know, maybe his greatest great

1331
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:48,360
Speaker 1: crime here in their view is that he didn't even say,

1332
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:50,680
Speaker 1: don't send the weapons. He said we should be tracking them.

1333
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 1: He said we should have inspector general to keep track

1334
01:08:53,920 --> 01:08:55,679
Speaker 1: of where these weapons are going and law and behold

1335
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 1: just I think a few weeks later, and we covered

1336
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 1: this on the show too, you had European law enforcement saying,

1337
01:09:01,800 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 1: we have a problem with a lot of you know,

1338
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:05,960
Speaker 1: black market weapons coming out of Ukraine, and this is

1339
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 1: something we really need to pay attention to because this

1340
01:09:08,080 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 1: is a big problem because once those weapons are shipped

1341
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,519
Speaker 1: into the country, wait, have no idea what happens next.

1342
01:09:13,560 --> 01:09:19,559
Speaker 1: So this was an incredibly rationable, rational, reasonable idea that

1343
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 1: everyone acted like, oh, this is ridiculous, and you just

1344
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:25,479
Speaker 1: start like a Russian puppet you and you know what,

1345
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:29,599
Speaker 1: here's the other thing is even people who do I think,

1346
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 1: go too far and do you know, echo some of

1347
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 1: the Kremlin talking points or whatever, they should be allowed

1348
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:40,160
Speaker 1: to do. That. You should be allowed to hear what

1349
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:42,360
Speaker 1: the enemy's line is, what they're thinking. And so this

1350
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,200
Speaker 1: is why I've always been against, you know, cracking down

1351
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,760
Speaker 1: at all. We can't see ourt on YouTube and we

1352
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:51,000
Speaker 1: can't have any of the sort of Kremlin state TV

1353
01:09:51,200 --> 01:09:54,760
Speaker 1: or state media available in the West, because it really

1354
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:58,679
Speaker 1: does hinder our ability to understand how they are approaching

1355
01:09:58,720 --> 01:10:00,439
Speaker 1: this and what they are thinking, what they are selling

1356
01:10:00,439 --> 01:10:02,840
Speaker 1: to their population. Absolutely, I completely agree with that. And

1357
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:05,240
Speaker 1: you know, call me whatever you want for saying this,

1358
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:07,439
Speaker 1: but you know, Rand Paul is a sitting United States

1359
01:10:07,520 --> 01:10:10,679
Speaker 1: member senator, an elected member of the United States government.

1360
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:13,320
Speaker 1: And last time I checked, we shipped you and forty

1361
01:10:13,360 --> 01:10:17,200
Speaker 1: billion dollars of weapons guaranteed your security to quote unquote

1362
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 1: fight for freedom. So how about you keep your mouth

1363
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 1: shut about our politicians given the fact that we are

1364
01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 1: literally guaranteeing the existence of your country. Another right, and

1365
01:10:26,960 --> 01:10:29,679
Speaker 1: another one who's on the list, Lula da Silva, who

1366
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:32,320
Speaker 1: is very likely to I mean he's the former president

1367
01:10:32,320 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 1: of Brazil, is very likely to be the next president

1368
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 1: of Brazil, leading significantly in the polls last I saw

1369
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 1: it that I followed Brazilian politics like extraordinarily closely. But

1370
01:10:40,880 --> 01:10:43,559
Speaker 1: this is this isn't Marine La penn Is on there again.

1371
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:45,800
Speaker 1: I don't care what you think about these people, and

1372
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:50,760
Speaker 1: this is a broader trend in Ukraine that is very uncomfortable,

1373
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:53,519
Speaker 1: I think for people to talk about because they just

1374
01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 1: want to you know, put up the Ukrainian flag and

1375
01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:57,840
Speaker 1: be support and support of the Ukrainian people. I totally

1376
01:10:57,920 --> 01:11:00,160
Speaker 1: get it. I share the same sentiment. We also have

1377
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:01,680
Speaker 1: to be honest about the fact that this is a

1378
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:04,920
Speaker 1: state that has suffered from a lot of corruption. Is

1379
01:11:05,360 --> 01:11:07,960
Speaker 1: that before the war and since the war has started,

1380
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:10,960
Speaker 1: has cracked down on a lot of descent, banning police,

1381
01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:14,840
Speaker 1: opposition political parties, banning descent in terms of what their

1382
01:11:14,880 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 1: population can consume, and then coming out with you know,

1383
01:11:19,280 --> 01:11:21,559
Speaker 1: blacklists like this, which I do want to be clear,

1384
01:11:21,600 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 1: it's not it is not at all spelled out what

1385
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:28,519
Speaker 1: this list means, how they're going to use it. It

1386
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:31,479
Speaker 1: is sort of like the you know, disinformation board that

1387
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 1: they floated here, where it's very vague with the actual

1388
01:11:34,280 --> 01:11:36,000
Speaker 1: purpose of the list. Here's my question, what if rand

1389
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:38,200
Speaker 1: Paul wants to go on a congressional delegation to Ukraine,

1390
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:40,080
Speaker 1: are they going to ban him from doing so? Also, Glenn,

1391
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:41,840
Speaker 1: you know Glenn is a journalist, Why shouldn't he be

1392
01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 1: He should absolutely be allowed to go into Ukraine and

1393
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:47,120
Speaker 1: to maybe report on how some of these weapons are doing.

1394
01:11:47,400 --> 01:11:49,640
Speaker 1: Save this for last. I love Glenn's response. Here's what

1395
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:52,479
Speaker 1: he says. Fitting fact more proponents in the West and

1396
01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,000
Speaker 1: other functionaries of the Western security state have used the

1397
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:58,320
Speaker 1: same tactics for decades to demonize anyone questioning the foreign

1398
01:11:58,360 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 1: policy of the US and NATO. Among them, going back

1399
01:12:01,040 --> 01:12:03,000
Speaker 1: to the start of the Cold War, is accusing any

1400
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 1: dissionent of spreading Russian propaganda or otherwise serving the Kremlin.

1401
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:08,880
Speaker 1: That's all this is the Ukrainians is just standard with

1402
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:12,320
Speaker 1: mccarthured idiocy. The Ukrainians have the absolute right to pursue

1403
01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:14,960
Speaker 1: whatever war policies they want, But then they start demanding

1404
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:17,280
Speaker 1: that my country and my government use its resources to

1405
01:12:17,280 --> 01:12:20,720
Speaker 1: fuel their effort. Then I, along with all other Americans,

1406
01:12:20,760 --> 01:12:23,439
Speaker 1: have the absolute right to question that policy or to

1407
01:12:23,520 --> 01:12:26,160
Speaker 1: point out its dangers and risks. I don't care at

1408
01:12:26,200 --> 01:12:28,800
Speaker 1: all about Ukraine's attempts to shut down debate in our

1409
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:32,040
Speaker 1: country by smearing journalists and politicians who are questioning US

1410
01:12:32,040 --> 01:12:35,280
Speaker 1: and NATO policy as being Russian propagandists. That tactic is

1411
01:12:35,280 --> 01:12:39,640
Speaker 1: as inconsequential as it is cheap, tawdry, and discredited. I

1412
01:12:39,680 --> 01:12:43,000
Speaker 1: completely agree with that sentiment. In our country, we have

1413
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 1: a robust debate about who we support and who we don't.

1414
01:12:46,120 --> 01:12:48,800
Speaker 1: The whole reason supposedly, by the way, for supporting this

1415
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:51,840
Speaker 1: sometimes here too. Okay, fine, but you know, at least

1416
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 1: we should try and aspire to that. But the whole

1417
01:12:54,080 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 1: reason that we supposedly support these people is the cause

1418
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:58,920
Speaker 1: of freedom, etc. Well, you know, if you're going to

1419
01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:01,280
Speaker 1: be behaving just like the Russians, who also, by the way,

1420
01:13:01,400 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 1: probably have many of the people who accused Glenn of

1421
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 1: being a Russian propagandists on their blacklist, then what is

1422
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:11,280
Speaker 1: the point of this entire thing? I exposes a hell

1423
01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:13,519
Speaker 1: of a lot of hypocrisy and people who really believe

1424
01:13:13,880 --> 01:13:17,479
Speaker 1: into supposed free Ukraine, Western Ukraine. That's the whole reason

1425
01:13:17,479 --> 01:13:22,280
Speaker 1: for anything you that's all member uh well, potential NATO member,

1426
01:13:22,320 --> 01:13:26,960
Speaker 1: an EU person is issuing blacklists against US politicians, and

1427
01:13:27,240 --> 01:13:30,599
Speaker 1: US journalists. That's not how they're supposed to behave. Nobody

1428
01:13:30,640 --> 01:13:32,760
Speaker 1: will say it, though, because they themselves will also be

1429
01:13:32,800 --> 01:13:35,519
Speaker 1: accused of a Russian propagandist Ukraine. Please don't put me

1430
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 1: on the list. I still do want to visit your beauty. Okay,

1431
01:13:41,320 --> 01:13:42,880
Speaker 1: all right, Christal, what are you taking a look at?

1432
01:13:42,920 --> 01:13:45,800
Speaker 1: But the Democratic Party? You know you've really messed up

1433
01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:49,280
Speaker 1: when even CNN is calling you out for hypocrisy. And

1434
01:13:49,320 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 1: that is exactly what happened on a recent set end

1435
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:54,800
Speaker 1: panel where every guest and the host blasted Dems for

1436
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:57,799
Speaker 1: propping Upstop this Deal candidates to the tune of millions

1437
01:13:57,840 --> 01:14:01,080
Speaker 1: of dollars, while at the same time declaring that preserving

1438
01:14:01,120 --> 01:14:04,440
Speaker 1: democracy is a sacred duty that should be beyond politics.

1439
01:14:04,479 --> 01:14:06,679
Speaker 1: Take a listen. It's like, okay, you've got this political

1440
01:14:06,720 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: message about our democracy and about what's important. Propping up

1441
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:11,560
Speaker 1: these kinds of candidates like a Doug Mastrano in Pennsylvania

1442
01:14:11,880 --> 01:14:14,920
Speaker 1: or a Kerry Lake potentially in Arizona. That is contrary

1443
01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:17,000
Speaker 1: to everything else that you are telling the American people

1444
01:14:17,000 --> 01:14:19,080
Speaker 1: about where you stand and what you believe and what's important.

1445
01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:21,320
Speaker 1: And if we end up, if it ends up, that

1446
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:23,200
Speaker 1: some of these extreme candidates that they propped up get

1447
01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 1: elected and actually do make moves in twenty twenty four

1448
01:14:25,439 --> 01:14:28,200
Speaker 1: that jeopardize our presidential election process. Like they're going to

1449
01:14:28,240 --> 01:14:29,920
Speaker 1: have to answer for that. Yeah, it's not just contrary,

1450
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:31,720
Speaker 1: it undercuts the whole art. It does. Yeah, I mean

1451
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:33,799
Speaker 1: when Democrats tell you that the greatest steps to democracy

1452
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:36,240
Speaker 1: is Donald Trump like candidates and the very fate of

1453
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:38,400
Speaker 1: our republic rests undefeating them, and at the same time

1454
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,439
Speaker 1: they're bolstering them for partisan advantage in a tight race.

1455
01:14:41,640 --> 01:14:43,960
Speaker 1: The first argument. Both arguments can't be true, right, and

1456
01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:46,680
Speaker 1: so it's you see why they're doing it, and you

1457
01:14:46,720 --> 01:14:49,240
Speaker 1: see they're in their obvious strategic advantages and tactical advantage.

1458
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:50,679
Speaker 1: They're more likely to win an election if they they'll

1459
01:14:50,680 --> 01:14:52,479
Speaker 1: probably work in most cases. But there is that, but

1460
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:54,000
Speaker 1: it might not. That's the difference. And it's not just

1461
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:55,600
Speaker 1: because some of our moms are listening. But in the

1462
01:14:55,600 --> 01:14:57,240
Speaker 1: back of my head, I always care like, be careful

1463
01:14:57,240 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 1: what you wish for. Yeah, I mean, that's just the

1464
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 1: little thing that I just came appearing on these arguments

1465
01:15:02,160 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 1: against old Trump right sixty they lost him, And again,

1466
01:15:06,120 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 1: it's certainly possible. This here's midterm so critical. The gobsmacked

1467
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 1: panels here are one hundred percent correct. You can't take

1468
01:15:13,200 --> 01:15:16,160
Speaker 1: up massive congressional resources diving into the details of what

1469
01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 1: happened on January six, solemnly vowing you will do whatever

1470
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:23,360
Speaker 1: it takes to protect democracy from conspiracy adult insurrectionists, and

1471
01:15:23,439 --> 01:15:26,280
Speaker 1: then turn right around and spend millions ushering a gaggle

1472
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: of those conspiracy adult insurrectionists through their primary contest. Let

1473
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:32,280
Speaker 1: me give you some of the numbers surrounding the strategy,

1474
01:15:32,320 --> 01:15:36,080
Speaker 1: because it is really astounding. In Maryland, Democrats spent one

1475
01:15:36,080 --> 01:15:39,800
Speaker 1: point two million dollars on ads persuading conservative voters that

1476
01:15:39,880 --> 01:15:43,759
Speaker 1: gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox was the most conservative candidate. According

1477
01:15:43,800 --> 01:15:45,840
Speaker 1: to Vox, that was more than what Cox and the

1478
01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 1: other GOP candidates spent combined. In the primary. He ultimately prevailed.

1479
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 1: Current Republican Governor Larry Hogan says Dems are playing with

1480
01:15:53,240 --> 01:15:55,479
Speaker 1: fire and that he himself will not vote for his

1481
01:15:55,560 --> 01:15:59,599
Speaker 1: parties nominee. In Illinois, Democrats spent in eye watering thirty

1482
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:02,599
Speaker 1: five million dollars propping up state center Darren Bailey. He's

1483
01:16:02,640 --> 01:16:04,960
Speaker 1: a Trump back candidate who once pushed to kick Chicago

1484
01:16:05,000 --> 01:16:08,120
Speaker 1: out of the state altogether. Bailey also prevailed in his

1485
01:16:08,280 --> 01:16:11,160
Speaker 1: primary now Marilyn and Illinois, and they're both generally blue

1486
01:16:11,160 --> 01:16:13,479
Speaker 1: states and Democrats will be favored to prevail in both

1487
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:16,639
Speaker 1: of those races in the fall. But Democrats have also

1488
01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:19,479
Speaker 1: meddled in races in hotly contested swing states where the

1489
01:16:19,560 --> 01:16:22,960
Speaker 1: national mood could easily sweep a Republican no matter how fringe,

1490
01:16:23,040 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 1: into office. As we've covered before, DEM's backstop the Steel

1491
01:16:26,400 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 1: true believer Doug Mastriano in Petsylvania, buying more ads to

1492
01:16:29,520 --> 01:16:31,960
Speaker 1: back him than the campaign did itself, and they are

1493
01:16:32,000 --> 01:16:35,240
Speaker 1: now flirting with another Trump backed election denier in Arizona.

1494
01:16:35,479 --> 01:16:38,160
Speaker 1: Carrie Lake has been leading the GOP primary polls for

1495
01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:41,759
Speaker 1: governor and has leaned into every election conspiracy outright declaring

1496
01:16:41,800 --> 01:16:44,000
Speaker 1: she would not have certified the results if she had

1497
01:16:44,040 --> 01:16:46,840
Speaker 1: been governor in twenty twenty. Dems have been helping Lake

1498
01:16:46,880 --> 01:16:50,559
Speaker 1: prevail by highlighting her opponent's past donations to Democrats, and

1499
01:16:50,600 --> 01:16:52,640
Speaker 1: the very latest poll of the race has Lake up

1500
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:56,520
Speaker 1: in the primary by twelve and new reporting by Axios

1501
01:16:56,800 --> 01:17:00,879
Speaker 1: reveals that Democrats are working to unseat one of Trump's

1502
01:17:00,960 --> 01:17:05,040
Speaker 1: few remaining GOP critics in the House. They are spending

1503
01:17:05,280 --> 01:17:08,559
Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of dollars in a GOP primary on

1504
01:17:08,640 --> 01:17:12,320
Speaker 1: behalf of a Trump backed far right candidate. That candidate

1505
01:17:12,439 --> 01:17:15,599
Speaker 1: is looking to defeat incumbent Peter Meyer, who voted for

1506
01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:19,800
Speaker 1: Trump's impeachment after January sixth. Let me just repeat that

1507
01:17:20,320 --> 01:17:23,479
Speaker 1: Democrats are trying to oust in a primary one of

1508
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:26,640
Speaker 1: the few Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his

1509
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:30,280
Speaker 1: actions on January sixth. All in all, according to an

1510
01:17:30,320 --> 01:17:33,400
Speaker 1: Open Secrets analysis, Democrats have spent at least forty four

1511
01:17:33,479 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: million dollars propping up extreme candidates in Republican primaries. In

1512
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:39,880
Speaker 1: their article if for Open Secrets, they point out that

1513
01:17:39,920 --> 01:17:43,520
Speaker 1: these candidates ultimately winning is not the only danger. Elevating

1514
01:17:43,520 --> 01:17:46,880
Speaker 1: extremists back in conspiracy nonsense who are hostile democracy helps

1515
01:17:46,880 --> 01:17:50,439
Speaker 1: to mainstream and legitimize those views even if the candidates

1516
01:17:50,439 --> 01:17:53,280
Speaker 1: do not ultimately prevail. Some of these candidates, though, are

1517
01:17:53,320 --> 01:17:56,280
Speaker 1: pretty likely to prevail. There's a long history, of course

1518
01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:58,599
Speaker 1: the political party is playing in the opposite team's primary,

1519
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:01,080
Speaker 1: and the most storied recent example is Claire mccaskell, former

1520
01:18:01,040 --> 01:18:04,839
Speaker 1: Missouri senator, helping Todd legitimate rape ach in to victory.

1521
01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:08,280
Speaker 1: Now aikens assent to the GOP nomination that helped mccaskell

1522
01:18:08,360 --> 01:18:11,240
Speaker 1: win another term against all the odds. And although now

1523
01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:14,719
Speaker 1: even mccaskell is wary of the DEM strategy and skeptical

1524
01:18:14,720 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 1: it's going to actually work, given how stiff the national

1525
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:20,400
Speaker 1: wins are blowing against the Democratic Party, I was not

1526
01:18:20,439 --> 01:18:23,519
Speaker 1: familiar with a more historic DEM medaling which ended up

1527
01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:28,640
Speaker 1: massively and spectacularly backfiring. As a Washington examiner writes in

1528
01:18:28,720 --> 01:18:33,680
Speaker 1: the California gubernatorial race back in nineteen sixty six, Democrats

1529
01:18:33,720 --> 01:18:36,840
Speaker 1: worried that the moderate Republican mayor of San Francisco, a

1530
01:18:36,840 --> 01:18:39,840
Speaker 1: guy named George Christopher, would be a formidable challenge for

1531
01:18:39,920 --> 01:18:42,720
Speaker 1: them in the general election, so they dub dug up

1532
01:18:42,720 --> 01:18:46,160
Speaker 1: an old milk price fixing scandal and leaked it to

1533
01:18:46,240 --> 01:18:50,919
Speaker 1: a friendly columnist. This actually recapped Christopher's chances, so instead

1534
01:18:50,960 --> 01:18:54,519
Speaker 1: of Christopher, DEM's got their political wish and faced off

1535
01:18:54,560 --> 01:18:58,400
Speaker 1: in the general against a hard right political neophyte named

1536
01:18:58,479 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan, and of course went on to not only

1537
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:03,920
Speaker 1: romp in the general, but ultimately to remake the entire

1538
01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:06,639
Speaker 1: Republican Party and the nation, destroying the New Deal order.

1539
01:19:07,040 --> 01:19:10,639
Speaker 1: Way to go, guys. The current dem strategy might work

1540
01:19:10,680 --> 01:19:12,920
Speaker 1: out for them, might hand them some governor mansions and

1541
01:19:13,120 --> 01:19:16,080
Speaker 1: key states, given Biden's record low approval ratings in the

1542
01:19:16,120 --> 01:19:19,240
Speaker 1: dire state of the economy, though it could also easily

1543
01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:23,120
Speaker 1: backfire stacking those very same governor's mansions with candidates who

1544
01:19:23,120 --> 01:19:26,000
Speaker 1: have outright said they would trigger a constitutional crisis if

1545
01:19:26,000 --> 01:19:29,160
Speaker 1: they were given the opportunity. One thing is absolutely clear

1546
01:19:29,400 --> 01:19:33,479
Speaker 1: when Democrats invey about the threats to democracy and existential stakes,

1547
01:19:33,680 --> 01:19:37,200
Speaker 1: they do not actually mean it. They're still playing their games.

1548
01:19:37,400 --> 01:19:40,439
Speaker 1: They're still only concerned first with servicing their donors and

1549
01:19:40,520 --> 01:19:43,160
Speaker 1: second with winning so long as it doesn't interfere with

1550
01:19:43,360 --> 01:19:46,759
Speaker 1: the donor servicing. They're telling you these aren't normal times,

1551
01:19:46,880 --> 01:19:49,920
Speaker 1: but they are approaching politics as if they are completely

1552
01:19:49,960 --> 01:19:52,360
Speaker 1: normal times. That's why, even though I do think the

1553
01:19:52,439 --> 01:19:54,479
Speaker 1: January six hearings have done some damage to Trump and

1554
01:19:54,520 --> 01:19:57,439
Speaker 1: the GOP, the most important thing Democrats could do right now,

1555
01:19:57,640 --> 01:20:00,880
Speaker 1: if they actually consider the Republican threat to be the existential,

1556
01:20:01,400 --> 01:20:03,680
Speaker 1: is to try to win, and you do that by

1557
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:07,400
Speaker 1: relentlessly focusing on the economic concerns that voters have routinely

1558
01:20:07,439 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 1: told you they care the most about. If the future

1559
01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:13,280
Speaker 1: of democracy depends on this nation, then act like it.

1560
01:20:13,680 --> 01:20:17,040
Speaker 1: Buck your donors, deliver for voters, and stop putting lunatic

1561
01:20:17,160 --> 01:20:21,639
Speaker 1: psychos in position to win. The latest example is really

1562
01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:24,040
Speaker 1: something hundreds of thousands of them. And if you want

1563
01:20:24,040 --> 01:20:26,960
Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium

1564
01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:32,960
Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, Sager, what

1565
01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:35,120
Speaker 1: are you looking at. If there's one thing that COVID

1566
01:20:35,120 --> 01:20:37,479
Speaker 1: baked into me, it's this. I'm never going to trust

1567
01:20:37,479 --> 01:20:41,320
Speaker 1: the scientific establishment again. Before the pandemic, I honestly was

1568
01:20:41,360 --> 01:20:43,960
Speaker 1: pretty trusting. And while the phrase do your own research

1569
01:20:44,000 --> 01:20:47,040
Speaker 1: has become a meme, watching the public health authorities outright

1570
01:20:47,120 --> 01:20:50,000
Speaker 1: lie to us about masking and social distancing and pushing

1571
01:20:50,000 --> 01:20:52,960
Speaker 1: policy that makes no sense for two years straight has

1572
01:20:53,040 --> 01:20:55,680
Speaker 1: really made it my baseline assumption they're full of it.

1573
01:20:55,960 --> 01:20:59,320
Speaker 1: But more importantly COVID, what really happened is I started

1574
01:20:59,320 --> 01:21:02,360
Speaker 1: to understand that that was just the tip of the iceberg.

1575
01:21:02,680 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 1: Take the lab leak theory. While yes, the fact that

1576
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:07,720
Speaker 1: COVID likely leaked from a lab is important in and

1577
01:21:07,760 --> 01:21:10,280
Speaker 1: of itself, the cover up was way worse, and it

1578
01:21:10,400 --> 01:21:13,559
Speaker 1: showed to us that the scientific establishment was too afraid

1579
01:21:13,600 --> 01:21:16,200
Speaker 1: to admit the truth because of how powerful that the

1580
01:21:16,280 --> 01:21:19,439
Speaker 1: National Institute of Health was. If scientists told the truth

1581
01:21:19,439 --> 01:21:22,200
Speaker 1: about gain of function research, then it meant that doctor

1582
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:25,599
Speaker 1: Fauci and doctor Collins, two of the people who control

1583
01:21:26,000 --> 01:21:30,760
Speaker 1: billions of dollars in scientific funding, could end their incomes overnight.

1584
01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:33,240
Speaker 1: It showed to me how the science is just like

1585
01:21:33,320 --> 01:21:36,920
Speaker 1: any other discipline corrupt. Once you start to understand that

1586
01:21:37,040 --> 01:21:41,839
Speaker 1: dynamic involving the NIH pharmaceutical companies and more, the medical

1587
01:21:41,840 --> 01:21:44,000
Speaker 1: outcomes in our society start to make a hell of

1588
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:47,439
Speaker 1: a lot more sense. And furthermore, the Internet revolution that

1589
01:21:47,479 --> 01:21:50,080
Speaker 1: has come to disrupt every area of American life is

1590
01:21:50,160 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 1: now coming for science, where ruthless scrutiny by those who

1591
01:21:53,439 --> 01:21:57,080
Speaker 1: were not able to critique people before is exposing truths

1592
01:21:57,160 --> 01:22:00,280
Speaker 1: that are genuinely shocking. Let's take the first revelation that

1593
01:22:00,320 --> 01:22:03,640
Speaker 1: has come to light recently. It is a massive indictment

1594
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:07,800
Speaker 1: of the scientific establishment. Science Magazine reports the critical elements

1595
01:22:07,960 --> 01:22:11,160
Speaker 1: of one of the most cited pieces in the history

1596
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:16,479
Speaker 1: of Alzeimer's research, disease may have been purposefully manipulated and

1597
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:21,400
Speaker 1: outright fraudulent. This paper, published in Nature in two thousand

1598
01:22:21,439 --> 01:22:24,920
Speaker 1: and six, proposed that specific proteins in your body were

1599
01:22:24,960 --> 01:22:29,000
Speaker 1: responsible for cognitive decline. This became one of the baseline

1600
01:22:29,040 --> 01:22:32,959
Speaker 1: assumptions of research and of drug companies, which the government

1601
01:22:33,040 --> 01:22:37,120
Speaker 1: funded to the tune of billions and billions of dollars

1602
01:22:37,280 --> 01:22:39,640
Speaker 1: to try and target for a cure. Well, guess what

1603
01:22:40,200 --> 01:22:43,639
Speaker 1: prominent researchers, more than a decade later, who are trying

1604
01:22:43,680 --> 01:22:47,639
Speaker 1: to replicate the results of the study. They can't. In fact,

1605
01:22:47,840 --> 01:22:51,200
Speaker 1: current scrutiny shows that images included in the initial paper

1606
01:22:51,479 --> 01:22:56,000
Speaker 1: have signs of manipulation. So consider the consequences. A potentially

1607
01:22:56,040 --> 01:22:59,559
Speaker 1: false study from two thousand and six has wasted tens

1608
01:22:59,640 --> 01:23:03,559
Speaker 1: of billions of dollars with a b in research, not

1609
01:23:03,600 --> 01:23:06,840
Speaker 1: only taxpayer dollars. How many well meaning people who saw

1610
01:23:06,880 --> 01:23:10,519
Speaker 1: parents or loved ones waylaid by Alzheimer's, who donated their

1611
01:23:10,560 --> 01:23:13,000
Speaker 1: hard earned money only for it to be pissed away

1612
01:23:13,200 --> 01:23:17,280
Speaker 1: for nearly a decade. This is a scandal of proportions,

1613
01:23:17,479 --> 01:23:19,960
Speaker 1: and frankly, if it's proven that the data was manipulated,

1614
01:23:20,040 --> 01:23:22,680
Speaker 1: these people should be punished for at least fraud. But

1615
01:23:22,800 --> 01:23:25,519
Speaker 1: on a broader level. It shows us the horrific choke

1616
01:23:25,560 --> 01:23:28,120
Speaker 1: points that we have in our system. Why is the

1617
01:23:28,280 --> 01:23:31,719
Speaker 1: NIH the major funder of research in the United States?

1618
01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:37,000
Speaker 1: How did academics get so captured by one single government bureaucracy,

1619
01:23:37,280 --> 01:23:40,320
Speaker 1: and more so as we saw with COVID, why is

1620
01:23:40,360 --> 01:23:43,120
Speaker 1: it so hard to get these people to admit when

1621
01:23:43,160 --> 01:23:46,200
Speaker 1: they were wrong and not waste money and actually focus

1622
01:23:46,360 --> 01:23:49,640
Speaker 1: on doing the right thing and saving lives? And Alzheimer's

1623
01:23:49,640 --> 01:23:52,000
Speaker 1: is not the only scientific area that we've seen effectively

1624
01:23:52,080 --> 01:23:56,519
Speaker 1: upended overnight. In this same week, another landmark study has

1625
01:23:56,560 --> 01:23:59,559
Speaker 1: just come out involving depression and its causes. A new

1626
01:23:59,600 --> 01:24:03,360
Speaker 1: meta analysis of massive bodies of scientific evidence finds quote

1627
01:24:03,600 --> 01:24:07,720
Speaker 1: no consistent evidence of their being an association between serotonin

1628
01:24:07,920 --> 01:24:11,760
Speaker 1: and depression, or that depression is caused by lowered serotonin

1629
01:24:11,800 --> 01:24:16,200
Speaker 1: activity or concentrations. Researchers reach this conclusion after looking at

1630
01:24:16,240 --> 01:24:20,960
Speaker 1: research that spanned hundreds of thousands of people. Again, this

1631
01:24:21,120 --> 01:24:24,760
Speaker 1: is shocking because the current major intervention against depression are

1632
01:24:24,800 --> 01:24:30,160
Speaker 1: antidepressants or SSRIs otherwise known as serotonin reuptake inhibitors. The

1633
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:33,880
Speaker 1: medical theory behind ssriys are that chemically intervening to affect

1634
01:24:33,920 --> 01:24:36,639
Speaker 1: serotonin levels in the brain can have a major impact

1635
01:24:36,680 --> 01:24:39,400
Speaker 1: on depression, because it was previously thought of as a

1636
01:24:39,439 --> 01:24:43,559
Speaker 1: major cause, and yet now we know that's not true. Now,

1637
01:24:43,600 --> 01:24:46,720
Speaker 1: to be clear, it does appear though that SSRIs are

1638
01:24:46,800 --> 01:24:51,799
Speaker 1: still effective against depression, but we have no idea why. Again,

1639
01:24:52,160 --> 01:24:55,679
Speaker 1: why does this matter? Well, the United States is awash

1640
01:24:55,840 --> 01:24:59,240
Speaker 1: in antidepressants. In fact, if you look at per capita usage,

1641
01:24:59,280 --> 01:25:01,360
Speaker 1: we are among them highest in the world, with one

1642
01:25:01,439 --> 01:25:04,120
Speaker 1: hundred and ten people per one thousand on some sort

1643
01:25:04,120 --> 01:25:07,000
Speaker 1: of antidepressant. The only people who even come close are

1644
01:25:07,000 --> 01:25:10,840
Speaker 1: in Iceland. We far outstrip other developed nations. Now, to

1645
01:25:10,920 --> 01:25:13,479
Speaker 1: be clear, Korea lasts on the list. They have a

1646
01:25:13,479 --> 01:25:16,320
Speaker 1: sky high suicide rate. So I'm not saying it's necessarily

1647
01:25:16,320 --> 01:25:18,880
Speaker 1: a bad thing, but it does show you how much

1648
01:25:18,920 --> 01:25:22,599
Speaker 1: our nation has leaned on this specific medication. In fact,

1649
01:25:22,640 --> 01:25:25,720
Speaker 1: a recent disclosure from the CDC found that one in

1650
01:25:25,880 --> 01:25:28,920
Speaker 1: eight Americans over the age of eighteen at one point

1651
01:25:29,040 --> 01:25:33,080
Speaker 1: has been prescribed in antidepressant medication. SSRI pushers have long

1652
01:25:33,120 --> 01:25:36,360
Speaker 1: pointed to the faulty research that we just described as

1653
01:25:36,360 --> 01:25:40,519
Speaker 1: to why it's the number one intervention against depression. Yet

1654
01:25:40,960 --> 01:25:44,760
Speaker 1: most studies beyond the so called chemical fix to depression

1655
01:25:45,120 --> 01:25:48,880
Speaker 1: focused on subjects only within eight to twelve weeks. If

1656
01:25:48,920 --> 01:25:51,360
Speaker 1: you zoom out and you look at people two years

1657
01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:55,519
Speaker 1: out post antidepressant intervention, you see no difference between those

1658
01:25:55,560 --> 01:25:58,439
Speaker 1: who took them and those who did not. Beyond that,

1659
01:25:58,840 --> 01:26:02,120
Speaker 1: what are the risks to screwing with your brain chemistry? Well,

1660
01:26:02,400 --> 01:26:05,400
Speaker 1: here's what we know. There are withdrawal symptoms from SSRIs

1661
01:26:05,520 --> 01:26:08,040
Speaker 1: that can last for weeks or months. The drug can

1662
01:26:08,040 --> 01:26:11,920
Speaker 1: pose major risks for strokes, heart attacks, falls, death, Not

1663
01:26:12,040 --> 01:26:14,880
Speaker 1: to mention untold side effects. I want to acknowledge there

1664
01:26:14,880 --> 01:26:18,400
Speaker 1: are millions of people for whom these drugs have benefited massively.

1665
01:26:18,760 --> 01:26:21,200
Speaker 1: But it isn't it a bit crazy that the one

1666
01:26:21,240 --> 01:26:24,280
Speaker 1: that so many Americans are on, one the doctors reach

1667
01:26:24,360 --> 01:26:28,120
Speaker 1: for so quickly that the underlying research backing them is

1668
01:26:28,240 --> 01:26:32,920
Speaker 1: shoddy at best. As with Alzheimer's, it again raises big

1669
01:26:33,000 --> 01:26:36,240
Speaker 1: questions around money. In twenty twenty alone, the sale of

1670
01:26:36,280 --> 01:26:40,479
Speaker 1: antidepressant drugs grew to thirteen point five billion dollars. It

1671
01:26:40,560 --> 01:26:43,519
Speaker 1: is anticipated to keep growing seven percent per year from

1672
01:26:43,560 --> 01:26:46,920
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one to twenty twenty seven. Specific drugs have

1673
01:26:46,960 --> 01:26:49,920
Speaker 1: netted nearly two billion dollars in their life cycle of

1674
01:26:49,960 --> 01:26:52,960
Speaker 1: profits so far, so not as much money in exercise

1675
01:26:53,080 --> 01:26:57,000
Speaker 1: or groundbreaking current research labs on psychedelics or fish oil

1676
01:26:57,120 --> 01:27:00,120
Speaker 1: or a host of other lifestyle interventions or vitamins are

1677
01:27:00,200 --> 01:27:03,120
Speaker 1: proven to work. Not nearly a studied. Both of those

1678
01:27:03,160 --> 01:27:05,799
Speaker 1: instances show that the incentive structure in our current system

1679
01:27:06,120 --> 01:27:09,639
Speaker 1: is not built to keep us healthy at all. They

1680
01:27:09,680 --> 01:27:16,320
Speaker 1: succumb to the same influences that all powerful institutions do, money, corruption, politicization.

1681
01:27:16,640 --> 01:27:18,680
Speaker 1: So while yes, you should listen to your doctors and

1682
01:27:18,720 --> 01:27:21,719
Speaker 1: the scientists, you should also be comfortable asking them why,

1683
01:27:21,920 --> 01:27:23,640
Speaker 1: because if you don't do it, and if you do

1684
01:27:23,720 --> 01:27:26,200
Speaker 1: it enough times now, you may find out they don't

1685
01:27:26,240 --> 01:27:29,160
Speaker 1: have very good answers. The forces behind what they are

1686
01:27:29,200 --> 01:27:32,120
Speaker 1: saying don't have your interest at heart at all, So

1687
01:27:32,200 --> 01:27:34,599
Speaker 1: you need to dig deeper. I think the depression one

1688
01:27:34,680 --> 01:27:37,120
Speaker 1: is just mind boggling. I mean, look again, I want

1689
01:27:37,120 --> 01:27:39,560
Speaker 1: to acknowledge that there are people. As I've said derogatory

1690
01:27:39,560 --> 01:27:42,439
Speaker 1: things about SSRIs, many people have found them to be

1691
01:27:42,560 --> 01:27:44,840
Speaker 1: useful in your life. And if you want to hear

1692
01:27:45,080 --> 01:27:48,599
Speaker 1: my reaction to Sager's monologue, become a premium subscriber today

1693
01:27:48,680 --> 01:27:54,160
Speaker 1: at Breakingpoints dot Com. Joining us now is a great guest,

1694
01:27:54,240 --> 01:27:56,840
Speaker 1: Jonathan Swan. He's a reporter over at Axios. He has

1695
01:27:56,880 --> 01:27:59,360
Speaker 1: a fascinating news story on the plans for a second

1696
01:27:59,360 --> 01:28:02,080
Speaker 1: Trumpet minute of one term materialize. Let's go ahead and

1697
01:28:02,080 --> 01:28:04,880
Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. It go ahead

1698
01:28:05,040 --> 01:28:07,760
Speaker 1: and details the radical plan for Trump's second term that

1699
01:28:08,160 --> 01:28:11,479
Speaker 1: focuses on something called schedule F. So, Jonathan, this is

1700
01:28:11,520 --> 01:28:13,400
Speaker 1: one of those things we focus a hell of a

1701
01:28:13,439 --> 01:28:15,200
Speaker 1: lot here on this show and try to emphasize to

1702
01:28:15,280 --> 01:28:19,719
Speaker 1: people that personnel is policy, something that not many can understand.

1703
01:28:19,800 --> 01:28:22,519
Speaker 1: So this is an entirely personnel plan that details an

1704
01:28:22,520 --> 01:28:25,040
Speaker 1: executive order and more that you've spent a long time

1705
01:28:25,080 --> 01:28:27,280
Speaker 1: reporting out. Why don't you go ahead and lay this

1706
01:28:27,320 --> 01:28:32,360
Speaker 1: out for the audience? Well, President Trump's form persent. Trump's

1707
01:28:32,360 --> 01:28:38,920
Speaker 1: biggest regret from his first term is personnel. And it's

1708
01:28:38,920 --> 01:28:41,160
Speaker 1: not even close. I mean, of all the things that

1709
01:28:41,200 --> 01:28:44,160
Speaker 1: he wishes he could have done differently, it's the people

1710
01:28:44,200 --> 01:28:48,479
Speaker 1: he hired. And every time he sees one of his

1711
01:28:48,560 --> 01:28:52,240
Speaker 1: former cabinet secretaries come out with a new book or

1712
01:28:52,280 --> 01:28:57,120
Speaker 1: go on television and criticize him, it reignites his animus

1713
01:28:57,439 --> 01:29:00,960
Speaker 1: towards them, and how the f did we pick these

1714
01:29:01,000 --> 01:29:04,040
Speaker 1: people who you know, blah blah blah, it's just sort

1715
01:29:04,080 --> 01:29:08,920
Speaker 1: of well worn rant. Fine, Okay, that great. He was

1716
01:29:08,960 --> 01:29:11,880
Speaker 1: rounding about that for a long time. The question I

1717
01:29:11,920 --> 01:29:16,400
Speaker 1: embarked upon actually really started thinking about this a year ago,

1718
01:29:16,439 --> 01:29:19,439
Speaker 1: but the reporting got a lot much more intense in

1719
01:29:19,439 --> 01:29:22,800
Speaker 1: the last six months. Was fine, you can whine about this,

1720
01:29:22,920 --> 01:29:27,400
Speaker 1: but is anyone serious actually doing anything about it? Because

1721
01:29:27,520 --> 01:29:29,680
Speaker 1: if they're not, then who cares. I'm not writing a

1722
01:29:29,720 --> 01:29:33,080
Speaker 1: story about Trump, you know, whining about people being disloyal.

1723
01:29:33,520 --> 01:29:36,280
Speaker 1: And what I discovered and it took me a while

1724
01:29:36,320 --> 01:29:38,080
Speaker 1: to kind of piece all the bits of it together,

1725
01:29:38,760 --> 01:29:41,280
Speaker 1: is there there are actually serious people working on this

1726
01:29:41,360 --> 01:29:44,840
Speaker 1: problem who have Trump's blessing. In some cases they have

1727
01:29:44,920 --> 01:29:50,240
Speaker 1: Trump's funding, and they're sorry, let me just put this

1728
01:29:50,280 --> 01:29:54,599
Speaker 1: on more stable footing. Yeah, So there are actually serious

1729
01:29:54,640 --> 01:29:58,439
Speaker 1: people working on this problem, and they're well funded and

1730
01:29:58,479 --> 01:30:00,559
Speaker 1: their experience, some of them are quite a dept at

1731
01:30:00,680 --> 01:30:03,519
Speaker 1: using government power. And there are sort of a network

1732
01:30:03,760 --> 01:30:08,080
Speaker 1: of groups out there, the Conservative Partnership Institute, which has

1733
01:30:08,160 --> 01:30:10,879
Speaker 1: got people like Ed Corrigan who worked on Trump's transition,

1734
01:30:11,080 --> 01:30:15,000
Speaker 1: Mark Meadows, his former chief of Staff. There's Russ Votes group.

1735
01:30:15,080 --> 01:30:20,920
Speaker 1: Russ was Trump's Director of Officer Management and Budget. And

1736
01:30:21,200 --> 01:30:24,280
Speaker 1: there's this group America First Policy Institute, run by President

1737
01:30:24,280 --> 01:30:30,240
Speaker 1: Trump's former domestic policy director. Each group is fits into

1738
01:30:30,280 --> 01:30:32,640
Speaker 1: this ecosystem in a different way. And then there are

1739
01:30:32,680 --> 01:30:37,160
Speaker 1: some interesting groups that aren't affiliated with Trump, but I

1740
01:30:37,160 --> 01:30:42,920
Speaker 1: would say affiliated with the America First Movement. They're ideologically simpatico.

1741
01:30:43,080 --> 01:30:44,960
Speaker 1: And one of them is a group that I featured

1742
01:30:45,040 --> 01:30:47,040
Speaker 1: is a younger group which actually you're on the board of,

1743
01:30:47,640 --> 01:30:51,200
Speaker 1: which is American Moment, which I think what they're doing

1744
01:30:51,240 --> 01:30:55,320
Speaker 1: is really interesting. They're younger guys. Saab Shama twenty four

1745
01:30:55,360 --> 01:30:59,439
Speaker 1: year old guy from Texas, very smart guy and has

1746
01:30:59,640 --> 01:31:02,600
Speaker 1: very good connections in I would just say the younger

1747
01:31:02,800 --> 01:31:06,160
Speaker 1: America First Movement, and they're developing a pipeline of talent

1748
01:31:06,200 --> 01:31:10,000
Speaker 1: at that more mid level junior job. So you can

1749
01:31:10,040 --> 01:31:11,680
Speaker 1: sort of see it. What the piece lays out is

1750
01:31:11,720 --> 01:31:14,360
Speaker 1: how it all comes together. And at the center of

1751
01:31:14,439 --> 01:31:18,080
Speaker 1: all of it is this legal instrument which most of

1752
01:31:18,080 --> 01:31:22,680
Speaker 1: your viewers probably weren't aware of. It's called Schedule F. Basically,

1753
01:31:23,040 --> 01:31:25,240
Speaker 1: every time a new president comes in, they can replace

1754
01:31:25,280 --> 01:31:28,800
Speaker 1: about four thousand so called political appointees. Right, it's this

1755
01:31:28,960 --> 01:31:32,160
Speaker 1: rotating layer of personnel at the top level of the government,

1756
01:31:32,640 --> 01:31:36,599
Speaker 1: but below that sits this mass of people, around two

1757
01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:42,639
Speaker 1: million federal employees, and they're effectively insulated from being replaced

1758
01:31:42,720 --> 01:31:45,479
Speaker 1: or fired. It's it's extremely difficult to fire, and they

1759
01:31:45,520 --> 01:31:49,920
Speaker 1: have really strong civil service protections that are enshrined in law.

1760
01:31:50,439 --> 01:31:54,559
Speaker 1: And to grossly simplify it, what this executive order does

1761
01:31:55,080 --> 01:31:58,400
Speaker 1: is it allows a Cabinet secretary on behalf of the

1762
01:31:58,400 --> 01:32:04,800
Speaker 1: president to reassign potentially tens of thousands of civil servants

1763
01:32:05,080 --> 01:32:09,240
Speaker 1: into a new employment category called Schedule F, which removes

1764
01:32:09,600 --> 01:32:12,760
Speaker 1: all of their employment protections or certainly almost all of them,

1765
01:32:13,040 --> 01:32:15,640
Speaker 1: and allows the president or the capa secreture to very

1766
01:32:15,720 --> 01:32:19,920
Speaker 1: quickly replace them. So what it does is it stipulates

1767
01:32:19,960 --> 01:32:23,400
Speaker 1: that any federal government employee who's working on policy, who's

1768
01:32:23,439 --> 01:32:26,880
Speaker 1: influencing policies. That doesn't apply to someone who's answering the

1769
01:32:26,920 --> 01:32:29,280
Speaker 1: phones in a field office, but people who are at

1770
01:32:29,280 --> 01:32:34,720
Speaker 1: that top layer influencing policy, they become replaceable. And so

1771
01:32:34,800 --> 01:32:37,760
Speaker 1: what is happening now on the outside of people affiliated

1772
01:32:37,760 --> 01:32:43,040
Speaker 1: with Trump is they're building an alternative labor source to

1773
01:32:43,120 --> 01:32:46,880
Speaker 1: meet that scale, which would be unprecedented scale. They don't think,

1774
01:32:46,920 --> 01:32:48,320
Speaker 1: to be clear, they don't think they're going to need

1775
01:32:48,360 --> 01:32:51,120
Speaker 1: to fire fifty thousand people, but they might need to

1776
01:32:51,160 --> 01:32:54,640
Speaker 1: fire an additional six or seven thousand people. And so

1777
01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:58,120
Speaker 1: therefore you need a talent pool of not just four thousand,

1778
01:32:58,120 --> 01:33:01,120
Speaker 1: but probably ten thousand, eleven thousand, twelve. That's a lot

1779
01:33:01,120 --> 01:33:04,559
Speaker 1: of people. That's a very ambitious undertaking, and that's what's

1780
01:33:04,600 --> 01:33:06,800
Speaker 1: going on right now. So I think there are a

1781
01:33:06,800 --> 01:33:10,320
Speaker 1: couple of things to point out here. First of all,

1782
01:33:10,479 --> 01:33:12,920
Speaker 1: part of what you're describing sounds a lot like what

1783
01:33:13,040 --> 01:33:15,760
Speaker 1: normal political operations do all the time you think about,

1784
01:33:15,840 --> 01:33:18,040
Speaker 1: you know, the Clinton campaign they had their sort of

1785
01:33:18,120 --> 01:33:21,519
Speaker 1: like administration in waiting, primarily a center for American Progress.

1786
01:33:22,040 --> 01:33:24,800
Speaker 1: The Biden team they had West exec Advisors, which was

1787
01:33:25,160 --> 01:33:28,240
Speaker 1: essentially their like foreign policy team in waiting or their

1788
01:33:28,320 --> 01:33:31,040
Speaker 1: cabinet in waiting that they're able then to pluck directly

1789
01:33:31,080 --> 01:33:34,240
Speaker 1: from to staff up their administration. The piece that is

1790
01:33:34,400 --> 01:33:37,680
Speaker 1: different is the schedule F piece, which allows them to

1791
01:33:38,160 --> 01:33:42,000
Speaker 1: get rid of a much larger number of individuals and

1792
01:33:42,040 --> 01:33:44,760
Speaker 1: sort of put in place their true believers and the

1793
01:33:44,760 --> 01:33:47,479
Speaker 1: ideologues who are committed to their cause. I guess my

1794
01:33:47,520 --> 01:33:50,280
Speaker 1: big question reading this is whether you actually think that

1795
01:33:50,360 --> 01:33:53,639
Speaker 1: a Trump administration could pull this off, because they're certainly

1796
01:33:53,840 --> 01:33:56,920
Speaker 1: the last time around, they were not known for their discipline,

1797
01:33:57,320 --> 01:34:00,559
Speaker 1: or their combatants, or their ability to follow through with

1798
01:34:00,600 --> 01:34:02,720
Speaker 1: the plan. I'm just thinking about, like, you know, how

1799
01:34:02,720 --> 01:34:04,280
Speaker 1: many times did they've oh, this is going to be

1800
01:34:04,320 --> 01:34:07,639
Speaker 1: infrastructure week and it never actually ended up being infrastructure week.

1801
01:34:08,000 --> 01:34:10,639
Speaker 1: So when you talk about something of the level of

1802
01:34:10,760 --> 01:34:14,160
Speaker 1: scale and complexity that you're laying out in this piece,

1803
01:34:14,640 --> 01:34:17,400
Speaker 1: do you actually think that a second Trump administration is

1804
01:34:17,439 --> 01:34:19,559
Speaker 1: going to have the kind of discipline that it takes

1805
01:34:19,600 --> 01:34:23,000
Speaker 1: to carry something like this out. Well, I'm skeptical, and

1806
01:34:23,000 --> 01:34:26,120
Speaker 1: that's why I have throughout the piece it's laced pretty

1807
01:34:26,120 --> 01:34:30,040
Speaker 1: heavily with skepticism. It's a huge undertaking, and as I said,

1808
01:34:30,200 --> 01:34:33,680
Speaker 1: developing that labor source it is, it would be of

1809
01:34:33,840 --> 01:34:37,240
Speaker 1: unprecedented scale. But there's a few things that I would

1810
01:34:37,360 --> 01:34:41,320
Speaker 1: just put in the column of it's possible and shouldn't

1811
01:34:41,360 --> 01:34:44,920
Speaker 1: be dismissed. The first is I'm not suggesting in this

1812
01:34:45,040 --> 01:34:48,000
Speaker 1: article that Donald Trump himself has changed, that he is

1813
01:34:48,040 --> 01:34:55,200
Speaker 1: now some disciplined, you know, monastic figures who's transformed himself

1814
01:34:55,240 --> 01:34:58,479
Speaker 1: in exile and is sort of reading Marcus Aurelius and

1815
01:34:58,560 --> 01:35:00,519
Speaker 1: is ready to, you know, come onto the seen as

1816
01:35:00,520 --> 01:35:05,000
Speaker 1: a complete No, that's absurd, Obviously, that's absurd. What's changed

1817
01:35:05,520 --> 01:35:08,000
Speaker 1: is the people working on this and the people around him,

1818
01:35:08,000 --> 01:35:11,960
Speaker 1: and he has a very hardened mentality against having any

1819
01:35:12,000 --> 01:35:14,479
Speaker 1: of these sort of people who I would just call

1820
01:35:14,560 --> 01:35:17,760
Speaker 1: them the sort of restrainers, the people who wanted to

1821
01:35:17,800 --> 01:35:21,480
Speaker 1: restrain him from what they saw as his most extreme impulses.

1822
01:35:22,040 --> 01:35:24,320
Speaker 1: And there are some people working on it that I

1823
01:35:24,320 --> 01:35:28,519
Speaker 1: would say have a track record of implementation inside government.

1824
01:35:28,600 --> 01:35:31,280
Speaker 1: Russ vote is a very good example of that. The

1825
01:35:31,360 --> 01:35:34,120
Speaker 1: other thing I would just say to you is this

1826
01:35:34,280 --> 01:35:37,840
Speaker 1: is not some fantastical document. This is an executive order

1827
01:35:37,880 --> 01:35:41,600
Speaker 1: that went through legal vetting and it was issued. It

1828
01:35:41,680 --> 01:35:44,679
Speaker 1: was signed into law at the end of twenty twenty,

1829
01:35:45,160 --> 01:35:50,160
Speaker 1: and Democrats are alarmed enough about its resurrection that Representative

1830
01:35:50,200 --> 01:35:54,040
Speaker 1: Jerry Connolly from Virginia, who chairs the subcommittee that oversees

1831
01:35:54,080 --> 01:35:56,720
Speaker 1: the federal Civil Service, He's attached an amendment to the

1832
01:35:56,760 --> 01:35:59,320
Speaker 1: annual Defense Bill this year to try to prevent a

1833
01:35:59,360 --> 01:36:02,800
Speaker 1: future president from reviving Schedule F. It passed the House,

1834
01:36:03,000 --> 01:36:05,080
Speaker 1: Republican's probably going to try and I know they're going

1835
01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:08,439
Speaker 1: to try and block it in the Senate, so Democrats

1836
01:36:08,479 --> 01:36:10,439
Speaker 1: are very worried about it. The other thing I would

1837
01:36:10,439 --> 01:36:14,000
Speaker 1: just say is it actually doesn't require a sort of

1838
01:36:14,760 --> 01:36:17,120
Speaker 1: You don't need to be Oliver Wendel Holmes to fire

1839
01:36:17,160 --> 01:36:19,679
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of people. You can do that pretty

1840
01:36:19,680 --> 01:36:22,760
Speaker 1: fricking easily. And actually, if you look at a big

1841
01:36:22,800 --> 01:36:24,439
Speaker 1: part of what they want to do, which is fire

1842
01:36:24,479 --> 01:36:27,680
Speaker 1: people in the intelligence community, they actually you don't even

1843
01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:29,439
Speaker 1: need schedule f for that. A lot of those people

1844
01:36:29,479 --> 01:36:34,600
Speaker 1: are not protected by these civil service protections. So you

1845
01:36:34,680 --> 01:36:39,040
Speaker 1: might say, well, can they pull this off? Well, sending

1846
01:36:39,560 --> 01:36:43,040
Speaker 1: a letter and firing someone is actually not that difficult,

1847
01:36:44,160 --> 01:36:47,200
Speaker 1: and so you don't need the great geniuses of the

1848
01:36:47,240 --> 01:36:50,040
Speaker 1: world to come together to pull this off. What would

1849
01:36:50,080 --> 01:36:52,639
Speaker 1: be interesting to know is who's going to replace these people?

1850
01:36:52,640 --> 01:36:54,439
Speaker 1: Are you going to have that labor source. That's the

1851
01:36:54,479 --> 01:36:58,840
Speaker 1: part that I remain skeptical about. But implementing a purge

1852
01:36:59,360 --> 01:37:02,439
Speaker 1: is not actually that difficult necessarily if they have this

1853
01:37:02,560 --> 01:37:06,600
Speaker 1: legal instrument combined with the will to do it. Absolutely

1854
01:37:06,720 --> 01:37:08,519
Speaker 1: And I think one thing I also want to focus

1855
01:37:08,560 --> 01:37:12,240
Speaker 1: on is what are these people believe because the real

1856
01:37:12,439 --> 01:37:14,439
Speaker 1: you know, you can fire people, you can appoint them.

1857
01:37:14,479 --> 01:37:16,439
Speaker 1: But I think one of the things that stung Trump

1858
01:37:17,040 --> 01:37:19,080
Speaker 1: was that many of the people who he would hire,

1859
01:37:19,120 --> 01:37:21,240
Speaker 1: and even many of these groups, they don't even necessarily

1860
01:37:21,280 --> 01:37:25,200
Speaker 1: ideologically agree with each other on anything. So when Trump

1861
01:37:25,240 --> 01:37:28,000
Speaker 1: has a criterion for who he wants to elevate and

1862
01:37:28,040 --> 01:37:31,680
Speaker 1: put into a personnel office, does he have any policy

1863
01:37:31,720 --> 01:37:34,760
Speaker 1: behind that or is it simply he's never criticized me

1864
01:37:34,840 --> 01:37:38,320
Speaker 1: on TV and he believes or at least mouths the

1865
01:37:38,560 --> 01:37:41,280
Speaker 1: language of stop the steal. I mean beyond that, does

1866
01:37:41,320 --> 01:37:43,680
Speaker 1: it matter for to be able to end up in

1867
01:37:43,720 --> 01:37:46,360
Speaker 1: one of these jobs? That's what I'm most curious about this. Well,

1868
01:37:46,400 --> 01:37:48,800
Speaker 1: this is where you distinguish between Trump himself and the

1869
01:37:48,800 --> 01:37:52,519
Speaker 1: Pivolia points. And so what's interesting is so the answer

1870
01:37:52,520 --> 01:37:54,559
Speaker 1: for Trump is no, he doesn't really care that much

1871
01:37:54,560 --> 01:37:58,040
Speaker 1: about brolacy. It's stopped the steal and loyalty to him absolutely,

1872
01:37:58,160 --> 01:37:59,760
Speaker 1: Like he said this to Milli Tills peop, why want

1873
01:37:59,760 --> 01:38:02,640
Speaker 1: people or loyal And you can get very closely, you

1874
01:38:02,680 --> 01:38:04,839
Speaker 1: give it quickly into his inner circle by just sucking

1875
01:38:04,880 --> 01:38:08,040
Speaker 1: up to him. Of course, we know that what's interesting though,

1876
01:38:08,160 --> 01:38:10,640
Speaker 1: is the person that I expect him to appoint to

1877
01:38:10,720 --> 01:38:13,800
Speaker 1: run his transition, which is John mcinte, who ran his

1878
01:38:13,840 --> 01:38:17,280
Speaker 1: personnel office. John mcintee is an ideal logue actually, and

1879
01:38:17,320 --> 01:38:21,200
Speaker 1: he does believe in these policies. He is very very

1880
01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:25,440
Speaker 1: anti interventionist on foreign policy, and he is hardcore on immigration.

1881
01:38:25,800 --> 01:38:29,519
Speaker 1: And so by dint of appointing John mcinte and people

1882
01:38:29,600 --> 01:38:33,800
Speaker 1: like him, russ vote is authentically is sort of comes

1883
01:38:33,800 --> 01:38:36,519
Speaker 1: out of the Ross Perot type of Republican. So some

1884
01:38:36,560 --> 01:38:39,559
Speaker 1: of the key people that will be I expect, I

1885
01:38:39,600 --> 01:38:42,720
Speaker 1: expect things could change, and you know, nothing certain in trumpworld,

1886
01:38:42,840 --> 01:38:44,400
Speaker 1: but some of the key people that I expect to

1887
01:38:44,439 --> 01:38:49,599
Speaker 1: be running this actually are America First ideo logues, and

1888
01:38:49,640 --> 01:38:52,240
Speaker 1: so that's why I do believe there will be a

1889
01:38:52,320 --> 01:39:00,240
Speaker 1: pretty strong ideological criteria applied to these selections. And by

1890
01:39:00,280 --> 01:39:03,600
Speaker 1: the way, a lot of the groups that are developing this,

1891
01:39:04,000 --> 01:39:06,920
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right, like, I don't know, I wouldn't describe

1892
01:39:06,960 --> 01:39:09,719
Speaker 1: the America First Policy Institute. I wouldn't describe their foreign

1893
01:39:09,720 --> 01:39:12,960
Speaker 1: policy proposals. You know, what they put out on Ukraine

1894
01:39:12,960 --> 01:39:15,240
Speaker 1: could have been written by John Bolton. So I'm not

1895
01:39:15,240 --> 01:39:19,639
Speaker 1: suggesting that there's ideological uniformity across these groups. There absolutely isn't.

1896
01:39:19,880 --> 01:39:22,400
Speaker 1: But I do believe that if he has people like

1897
01:39:22,520 --> 01:39:25,680
Speaker 1: mc and Tee running it, they will be discerning that

1898
01:39:26,200 --> 01:39:28,559
Speaker 1: they're deep enough in this that they can discern between

1899
01:39:28,600 --> 01:39:31,240
Speaker 1: these groups and see the types of people that they

1900
01:39:31,280 --> 01:39:33,519
Speaker 1: want to have in key roles. Can that be done

1901
01:39:33,560 --> 01:39:38,160
Speaker 1: at scale? I'm very skeptical. Yeah, that's the excellent, excellent

1902
01:39:38,280 --> 01:39:42,520
Speaker 1: cap Yeah. Absolutely. And then lastly, you mentioned that Democrats,

1903
01:39:42,560 --> 01:39:46,639
Speaker 1: including Carsman Jerry Connolly from Virginia, are trying to block

1904
01:39:47,000 --> 01:39:51,160
Speaker 1: their ability to reimpose this Schedule F executive order. What

1905
01:39:51,200 --> 01:39:54,240
Speaker 1: do you think the fate of that is. I think

1906
01:39:54,280 --> 01:39:56,600
Speaker 1: it's unlikely because I do think it's going to be

1907
01:39:56,720 --> 01:40:00,000
Speaker 1: very hard to get that through the Senate, and if

1908
01:40:00,000 --> 01:40:02,360
Speaker 1: if they don't manage to block it, they will certainly

1909
01:40:02,439 --> 01:40:05,360
Speaker 1: challenge it. They'll be huge legal challenges against it. But

1910
01:40:05,400 --> 01:40:09,400
Speaker 1: Trump's advisors like their chances in a court system that's

1911
01:40:09,439 --> 01:40:13,599
Speaker 1: now dominated by conservatives at the highest level. If they

1912
01:40:13,600 --> 01:40:16,080
Speaker 1: do get Schedule F into it, sorry, if they do

1913
01:40:16,160 --> 01:40:18,439
Speaker 1: get this amendment into an inter force to prevent a

1914
01:40:18,439 --> 01:40:22,360
Speaker 1: future president from introducing SCHEDULEF, Trump could still execute as

1915
01:40:22,680 --> 01:40:25,120
Speaker 1: far as I'm talking to experts on this a pretty

1916
01:40:25,200 --> 01:40:28,960
Speaker 1: large scale purge of the intelligence community, even without schedule F.

1917
01:40:29,520 --> 01:40:31,400
Speaker 1: Oh that's a great point, right, because I believe they're

1918
01:40:31,400 --> 01:40:34,719
Speaker 1: governed there are different authority Toren. This is fascinating, absolutely

1919
01:40:34,720 --> 01:40:37,640
Speaker 1: fascinating reporting. It's long, but I encourage everybody to go

1920
01:40:37,680 --> 01:40:40,240
Speaker 1: and read. It just influences everything that we talk about

1921
01:40:40,280 --> 01:40:41,960
Speaker 1: here all the time. So we're going to put link

1922
01:40:42,000 --> 01:40:44,000
Speaker 1: down there in the description. And we really appreciate you

1923
01:40:44,080 --> 01:40:46,120
Speaker 1: making the time for us this morning. Thank you. Thanks

1924
01:40:46,160 --> 01:40:48,040
Speaker 1: for having me, guys. And it's a two part series,

1925
01:40:48,120 --> 01:40:50,759
Speaker 1: so there's great It really goes deep in the second

1926
01:40:50,840 --> 01:40:53,719
Speaker 1: part on Schedule F. So perfeanks for having me. Absolutely

1927
01:40:53,760 --> 01:40:57,600
Speaker 1: para pleasure. Thank you guys so much for watching me.

1928
01:40:57,680 --> 01:41:00,800
Speaker 1: Really appreciate it. Live show tickets, don't forget. Link is

1929
01:41:00,840 --> 01:41:03,160
Speaker 1: down there in the description. Premium members, you guys already

1930
01:41:03,200 --> 01:41:04,840
Speaker 1: gave you the pitch for all of that. We'll see

1931
01:41:04,840 --> 01:41:05,879
Speaker 1: you guys on Thursday.