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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea and the single best idea is I

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Speaker 2: feel like we're deep into twenty twenty five. I believe

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Speaker 2: the calendar since January tenth of twenty twenty five, and

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Speaker 2: I can just tell you that actually before the new year,

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Speaker 2: it has just been twenty four to seven for our team,

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Speaker 2: and they really outdid themselves today. Just very fluid flexibility.

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Speaker 2: Thank you June Grosso of Bloomberg Law for stepping in

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Speaker 2: with perspective on this sentencing of the president elect that

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Speaker 2: we saw in New York City, but much much more

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Speaker 2: than that, just an extraordinary news flow, a major weekend.

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Speaker 2: Shout out to Rob Carolyn. I kid, I say he's

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Speaker 2: surveillance meteorologist, but Rob Carolyn is definitive across all of

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Speaker 2: Blue Weather, providing level headed analysis of whatever the storm is,

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Speaker 2: the crisis, or that I should say. He said that

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Speaker 2: the winds in the east are highly unusual that we're

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Speaker 2: seeing right now, and of course we did focus on

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Speaker 2: the horrific fire in Los Angeles. I'm sure mister Carolyn

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Speaker 2: will be with us next week, so I'm real worry

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Speaker 2: out there of increased winds next week. What a stellar

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Speaker 2: lineup today on very short notice. Rebecca Patterson joined US

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Speaker 2: definitive at JP Morgan and then at Bessemer Trust, and

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Speaker 2: of course her tenure at Bridgewater as well. We talked

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Speaker 2: about this, that and the other of economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 2: in international relations. But we ended on a new strong

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Speaker 2: dollar after the jobs report and ever stronger dollar. Rebecca

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Speaker 2: Patterson on the Chinese renminbi in.

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Speaker 1: Twenty eighteen, the rememby fell ten percent against the dollar

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Speaker 1: during the trade war. Most economists and strategists I'm talking

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Speaker 1: to think that is very likely to happen again. So

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Speaker 1: here's your headline. The Chinese. Remember if the PBOC, if

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Speaker 1: the central Bank lets it, is going to fall ten

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Speaker 1: percent or more this year. The question is will they

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Speaker 1: allow it? Are they are they going to avoid capital

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Speaker 1: flight worries and prevent it, or are they going to

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Speaker 1: do it because they need it for exports, they need

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Speaker 1: it for manufacturing.

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Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson there on currency, and she did look to

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Speaker 2: a resilient dollar that was before the jobs report. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure if we interviewed her now, she would really underscore

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Speaker 2: that that red sticky that came out, the red headline

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Speaker 2: across the Bloomberg Service of the people in the parlor

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Speaker 2: game gaming out no rate increase by the rate decrease

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Speaker 2: by the Fed until October. That was extraordinary. Ellen Zenner

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Speaker 2: was with us and we got a wow off that

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Speaker 2: joining us as well an extended conversation with the Nobel

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Speaker 2: Laureate Paul Krugman. Thank you for the huge comments that

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Speaker 2: we saw out on YouTube on that. A lightning rod

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Speaker 2: of politics and liberal and conservative and all that. I

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Speaker 2: really wanted to stick with him about international economics. That's

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Speaker 2: how he won the Nobel Prize. His textbooks with Maurice

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Speaker 2: Absfeld to Berkeley are definitive Paul Krugman. Of course, in

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Speaker 2: the theme of the moment tariffs.

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Speaker 3: The magnitude, I mean, one of the things that you

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Speaker 3: learn from studying the economics of tarriffs is that tariffs

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Speaker 3: at low rates do very very little harm. We had

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Speaker 3: an average tariff of something like two to three percent.

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Speaker 3: We do at the moment coming into this that if

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Speaker 3: you ask, you know, how much difference would it make

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Speaker 3: if we got that down to zero, the answer is

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Speaker 3: basically invisible. But if you go from five percent to

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent, which is what Trump's talking about, for

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Speaker 3: everybody and sixty percent for China. Then it's roughly speaking,

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Speaker 3: we think that the losses are to go up roughly

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Speaker 3: as the square of the tariff freight. So with Trump

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Speaker 3: talking not about a modest increase in tariffs, not about

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Speaker 3: a tariffs on a few products, but across the board

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Speaker 3: trade war sweet Holly tarrf levels that starts to become

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Speaker 3: a really really big deal.

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Speaker 2: Paul Krugman there of Cuney, and of course always of

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Speaker 2: Princeton there on his International economics on tariffs. I want

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Speaker 2: to identify a single sentence there which is not a

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Speaker 2: small matter. And this is the wonkish Paul Krugman. He

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Speaker 2: said the loss is roughly the square. What does he

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Speaker 2: mean about that? That's an exponent And you can go

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Speaker 2: back to physics one oh one with a you know,

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Speaker 2: just to pick on one theme, the wizardry of Isaac

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Speaker 2: Newton and figuring out gravitational constants between the Moon and

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Speaker 2: the Earth, and always in there there's a squared function,

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Speaker 2: and of course squared function is not a linear function.

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Speaker 2: One two, three four. A squared function is a power

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Speaker 2: of two four eight sixteen thirty two. There's a power

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Speaker 2: to that in an effect that is a glide path

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Speaker 2: that is much greater than some of the linear emotions

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Speaker 2: that we have within economy. Hope that will helps a

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Speaker 2: little bit today. Did people drive off the road on that, Eric,

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Speaker 2: I think so. Yeah. I think we try. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: try next week as well. We launch into the earnings

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Speaker 2: next week, and of course we'll have all the services

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Intelligence and our wonderful guests from across Wall

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Speaker 2: Street as well. We're out on YouTube podcasts. This is

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Speaker 2: single best idea