1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: Keeping an eye on the market response to the events 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: while we're watching in the Middle East, of course, events 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: that the President and top administration officials are also paying 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: attention to, having convened in the Situation Room at eleven 10 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: o'clock this morning to consider what the way forward may be. 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: Knowing we still have questions about the extent to which 12 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: Israel plans to continue these attacks and the course, the 13 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 2: extent to which Iron will have the capacity to respond 14 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: and in what fashion. But as we mentioned Israeli Prime 15 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: Minister Benjamin Nettnia who has signaled that these operations will 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: continue for some time, as he outlined last evening, in 17 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: and rest the operation that Israel is referring to as 18 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 2: Operation Rising Lion. 19 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to 20 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 3: roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival. This 21 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 3: operation will continue for as many days as it takes today, 22 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 3: it is clear that Iran is just buying for time. 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 3: It refuses to agree to this basic requirement of peaceful nations. 24 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: That is why we have no choice but to act 25 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 3: and act now. 26 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 4: In fact, they are still acting Secretary of State Marko 27 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 4: Rubio calling the Israeli strikes unilateral action. And that's where 28 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 4: we start with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, who has the latest 29 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 4: from the North lawn of the White House. 30 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 5: Tyler, Yeah, hey, Joe, Well, we're still waiting on some 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 5: pretty important updates from the White House. One, President Trump 32 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 5: convened his National Security Council earlier today. That was on 33 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 5: the public schedule for eleven am Eastern. And two we 34 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 5: are expecting a phone call between President Trump and his 35 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 5: real Prime Minister Benjamin and Yahoo. Of course, when we 36 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 5: get any of those readouts, will bring them to you. 37 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 5: But it does come as President Trump does seem to 38 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 5: signal some apparent. 39 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 6: Support for these Israeli air. 40 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 5: Strikes, even as the US contends it is not part 41 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 5: of the ongoing operation, though it did get advanced warning 42 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 5: that it was coming ahead of time. And there's really 43 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 5: a few key things that we are focusing in here on, 44 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 5: of course, one being that in a series of posts 45 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 5: on True Social earlier today, President Trump really counting American 46 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 5: military might and also suggesting that US equipment could be 47 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 5: flowing into Israel shortly. But he made the point that 48 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 5: one of the top priorities here is that the US 49 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 5: wants to see Iran make a nuclear deal. This is 50 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 5: going to be absolutely imperative, and he sort of put 51 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 5: on a warning to it, right He said that it 52 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 5: has to happen. 53 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 6: Before it's too late. 54 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 5: He's using these strikes as leverage to see if that 55 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 5: can get aron to the negotiating tables. 56 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 6: We wait to see if those six. 57 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 5: Rounds of talk in Oman actually end up materializing. A 58 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 5: US official does tell Bloomberg News they are hopeful that 59 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 5: they will continue there. It is clear that the administration 60 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 5: wants to find this diplomatic de escalation. That's been their 61 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 5: stance going into this. In fact, President Trump said that 62 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 5: he gave her on a deadline to make a deal, 63 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 5: which they ended up not being able to meet. In fact, 64 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 5: it was Bloomberg's very own Amory hor Dern but reported 65 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 5: back in March that the Trump administration sent a letter 66 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 5: to Iran saying that they had two months to wrap 67 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:25,959 Speaker 5: up the deal. 68 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 6: Of course, we are well beyond this, Joe and Kelley. 69 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 5: It could take a while as we watched to see 70 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 5: how this ends up escalating. We had the Israeli ambassador 71 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 5: to the United Nations on Bloomberg Television earlier today who 72 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 5: said that this operation could extend in two weeks. 73 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 6: As we wait to see how this develops. 74 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: And Tyler, of course, the president still has no public 75 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 2: events on his schedule today. Do we expect to hear 76 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: from him beyond his posts on truth social about this. 77 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 5: At the moment, Kayley, there's nothing publicly on the schedule, 78 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 5: So we're going to have to see how this ends 79 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 5: up evolving if he does give come out and and 80 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 5: gives us some sort of update here moving forward. 81 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 6: We know though that they are really. 82 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 5: Pushing to have these talks in Oman continue, as that 83 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: has been a really clear priority from this administration since 84 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 5: President Trump actually took office, but it's been unclear if 85 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 5: there's really has been any substantial progress towards an outcome. 86 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 5: Unclear what an outcome would look like beyond the JCPOA, 87 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 5: which of course the first Trump administration did pull out 88 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 5: of back in twenty. 89 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 6: Eighteen, We're going to have to see. 90 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 5: We're also watching closely, of course, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 91 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 5: and what he has to say about the situation as 92 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 5: it continues to evolve. 93 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live on the North lawn 94 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,119 Speaker 2: of the White House for us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 95 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 7: Thank you so much. We appreciate it. 96 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 2: And as Tyler referenced, there was a conversation that took 97 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: place with our colleagues on Bloomberg Surveillance earlier today where 98 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,559 Speaker 2: the Israeli Ambassador to the UN joined them and talked 99 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 2: about what Israel's expectation is will happen next year. 100 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 7: Here's part of their exchange. 101 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 8: We took into consideration that there would be retaliation on 102 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 8: Marie and proportional. Well, they know that we have capability 103 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 8: as well, so they will have to think, you know, 104 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 8: twice before the attack athen and what they are doing. 105 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 8: And I would say that today we can reach every 106 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 8: target in Iwan. We have the control. 107 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 7: And just as we. 108 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 2: Listen to that sound, we get headlines from the Israeli 109 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 2: defense forces that residents have been instructed to minimize movement 110 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 2: in public areas and remain in protected spaces as Israel 111 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: braces for further response. Here for more, we turn to 112 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 2: Mona Yakubian, who is joining us here on Balance of Power. 113 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 2: She's director of the Middle East Program at the Center 114 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 2: for Strategic and International Studies. Mona, we appreciate your time 115 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 2: as we consider that Israel is still active in these operations. 116 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 2: These strikes are continuing, and the signal from the Israeli 117 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 2: government has been that they will continue for days to come. 118 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 2: Do we have an understanding of to what extent Israel 119 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: has already been had reduced Iran's capacity to respond to 120 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: retally in some way, Well. 121 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 9: We haven't. We don't have direct bomb damage assessments. There's 122 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 9: lots of film footage coming out that shows some fairly 123 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 9: extensive hits, and of course is noted the attacks are continuing. 124 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 9: I think it is interesting to see that we have 125 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 9: yet to see a significant response from Iran that could 126 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 9: indicate that there at least their ballistic missile capabilities have 127 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 9: taken a hit. But again it's too soon to know. 128 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 9: Iran could just be biding its time and waiting, but 129 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 9: I think some sort of Iranian retaliation is certainly to 130 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 9: be expected. 131 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: With reports from the Associated Press Mona suggesting that we're 132 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 4: now hearing explosions near the four Doah underground nuclear site. 133 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 4: What does that tell you about Israel's plans to so 134 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 4: called close the deal this time? 135 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 9: Well, Israel has made it very clear Prime Minister Ntsagna, 136 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,239 Speaker 9: who has said that Israel will not tolerate Iran gaining 137 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 9: any sort of the nuclear weapons capable ability. Fairdough is 138 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 9: the mother load, if you will, of Iranian uranium and Richmond. 139 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 9: It is deep, deep underground. There are real questions as 140 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 9: to whether Israel has the armaments, the bunker busters, if 141 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 9: you will, that can penetrate. So time will. 142 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,239 Speaker 7: Tell, Well, it certainly will. 143 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: And when we consider that, that gets to the US 144 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: position Mona, where we have seen some conflicting characterization as 145 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: to what extent the US knew of this attack or 146 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 2: supported it is. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, immediately 147 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: last night acted to distance the US government from Israel's action, 148 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 2: and yet President Trump today is signaling that this never 149 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: would have happened without US military technology that Israel has 150 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 2: access to. What role do you expect the administration to 151 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 2: play in what happens moving forward? 152 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 9: Well, how much the US knew in advance. I think 153 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 9: is going to be a question that we will all 154 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 9: be learning about in the coming days. But I think 155 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 9: what is clear is that the United States is not 156 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 9: interested in taking on an offensive role in this military engagement. 157 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 9: We are seeing US military assets being flown in and 158 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 9: coming in by sea to the region, but that is 159 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 9: largely for a defensive posture, both to protect significant US 160 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 9: assets and of course Israeli forces as well. 161 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 4: We saw strikes and responses tit for tat a couple 162 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 4: of times last year, Mona, Are you thinking of that 163 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 4: again in this case or is this the beginning of 164 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 4: a war between Israel and Iran? 165 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 10: Yeah? 166 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 9: I think this is a distinct departure from what we 167 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 9: saw last year, which were, as you noted, limited tit 168 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 9: for tat attacks that came to a quick conclusion. Already, 169 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 9: Israel is signaling that it is intends to continue its 170 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 9: campaign for days, if not weeks, and we know Iran 171 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 9: has said that this is a declaration of war. And 172 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 9: so I'm afraid that the region is really at an 173 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 9: incredibly perilous moment, one that has been long feared, where 174 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 9: it really could fall into the abyss of a region 175 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 9: wide war. 176 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 2: Well, and what role will Iran's proxies play in that moment, 177 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 2: knowing that they have been greatly diminished over the last 178 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: several years. Is Israel, of course, has waged an ongoing 179 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 2: war against Tamas, has acted to take out Hesbela. The 180 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 2: US had reached at one point recently a truce with 181 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 2: the Huthis. I don't know if you think that will stand. 182 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: But what role will those proxies play here? 183 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 9: Well, I think that's a big question, and this in 184 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 9: part may account for Israel's timing of the attacks Hesbela, 185 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 9: Uran's primary proxy, its second strike capability, if you will, 186 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 9: was largely decimated last year, and Tamas too has had 187 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 9: extreme damage to its forces. That leaves the Huthis, and 188 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 9: I think the Huthis are a wild card. We should 189 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,719 Speaker 9: not underestimate the Huthis' capabilities. We'll have to see what 190 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 9: they do, whether they choose they have already launched attacks 191 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 9: on Israel in the past, do they join the fight. 192 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 9: We're going to have to wait and see. 193 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 4: You mentioned the lack of response, or at least the 194 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 4: slow response from Iran, knowing that a lot of things 195 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 4: could still happen Mona, does that speak to disruption at 196 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 4: the top of the chain of command following the killings 197 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 4: we saw last night. 198 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:38,439 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, we're seeing fairly significant decapitation of Iran's 199 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 9: military and paramilitary forces. There's no question this has put 200 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 9: Iran on the back foot, and this might account again 201 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 9: for the fact that we're not seeing right now a 202 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 9: significant response. We'll have to wait and see where things go, 203 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 9: but Iran has certainly suffered some fairly significant blows over 204 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 9: the past twenty months. Whether or not it is completely down, 205 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 9: I think, is another question. But I would always say, 206 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 9: you know, we should never completely count Iran out. It 207 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 9: will find a way, I think to respond. 208 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 6: Well. 209 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 2: President Trump today has suggested multiple times that some of 210 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 2: the individuals inside Iron's chain of command that the US 211 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 2: was negotiating with trying to come to terms with, are 212 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 2: now dead Mona and I wonder as we considered the 213 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 2: future of those negotiations, knowing that six round of talks 214 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 2: was set to take place this weekend, if you think 215 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 2: there really is a future, does this add to or 216 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 2: diminish the chances of reaching another nuclear record between the 217 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: US and Iran. 218 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 9: I'm afraid this dramatically diminishes those prospects. It's hard to 219 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 9: imagine negotiations going forward given everything that's just happened. I think, 220 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 9: you know, best case scenario, these talks are put on 221 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 9: the back burner. But again, I think we're entering, unfortunately, 222 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 9: a new and very scary period in the Middle East, 223 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 9: one that's really going to be dominated more unfortunately by 224 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 9: military action to resolve problems rather than diplomacy. 225 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 4: Well by extension mona. You wonder about talk. It was 226 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 4: only months ago there was talk about expanding the Abraham Accords, 227 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 4: that normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was at 228 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 4: last at hand. 229 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 9: How about now, Well, already prospects for Israeli Saudi normalization 230 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 9: were diminishing given the deepening conflict in Gaza. Now I 231 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 9: think it's virtually impossible to imagine how that goes forward. 232 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 9: I'd note that when we look at responses from the 233 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 9: region to Israel's attacks, among the most vocal critics of 234 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 9: the attacks was Saudi Arabia, and Saudi almost in the 235 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 9: quote from the King, seemed to align itself with Iran. 236 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 9: So I think Saudi Israeli normalization is at really I 237 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 9: wouldn't even call it a distant prospect. I think the 238 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 9: chances for that for it right now are next to nil. 239 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: Well, I wonder, Mona, how much you think that might 240 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 2: have to do with Saudi concern or concerns of any 241 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: oil producing country in the Middle East about Iran potentially 242 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: going after their production capacity or taking the perhaps most 243 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 2: dramatic option of closing off the Straight of Hormuz entirely. 244 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 2: Do you think that's a realistic possibility here? 245 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 9: You know, I don't in the sense that I think 246 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 9: that Iran would essentially be shooting itself in the foot. 247 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 9: I don't see that happening because it would of course 248 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 9: dramatically imperil the global energy supplies and Iran would suffer 249 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 9: as a result. The other thing to keep in mind 250 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 9: is just prior to all of this happening, there really 251 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 9: had been an interesting and marked warming of relations between 252 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 9: Iran and Gulf Arab countries. I sense that Iran is 253 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 9: going to want to actually protect those relationships now more 254 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 9: than ever. So I don't see Ron doing anything to 255 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 9: provoke its neighboring Arab countries. 256 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 4: We just have about a minute left. Mona, is Jordan 257 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 4: the most nervous neighbor in the neighborhood. 258 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 9: I think Jordan has a lot to fear. Absolutely, people, 259 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 9: you know, colleagues and friends there already reporting concerns sirens 260 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 9: going off. Jordan is not a country that is used 261 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 9: to daily warfare and fighting, and it is right now 262 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 9: on the edge of the of the most intense fighting. 263 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 9: And so where things go in Jordan, I think we're 264 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 9: going to need to watch very very closely. But I'm 265 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 9: sure that the Jordaanes are deeply, deeply concerned about the 266 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 9: spillover of this conflict into their country. 267 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 4: Moni Yakubian, director of the Middle East Program at the 268 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 4: Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS, thank you so 269 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 4: much for the insights. With more breaking news on the terminal, 270 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 4: the Kremlin saying that Vladimir Putin spoke with Israel and 271 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 4: Iranian leaders. The Russian president had phone calls with both today, Kaylee, 272 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 4: remarkable development as we wait for input from Russia and 273 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 4: China on this. 274 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 275 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 276 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: Coarcley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 277 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon, Alexa, from our flagship 278 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: New York station just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven. 279 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 4: Thirty headlines crossing the terminal. Now, the International Energy Agency 280 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 4: commenting on an email here, the ia email activating its 281 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 4: Incident and Emergency Center on Iran attacks. We had heard 282 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 4: earlier that they had not measured radiation at dangerous levels 283 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 4: around the Uranium and Richmond sites bombed by Israel. The 284 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 4: IAEA commenting that it is continuous contact with Iran on 285 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 4: potential hazards. There's a big question here about response, about retaliation. 286 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 4: We know for a fact that about one hundred drones 287 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 4: were sent back from Iran toward Israel. Most of them 288 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 4: were knocked down. We don't have much of any recorded damage, 289 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 4: and very few people believe that will be it. We 290 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 4: actually had a conversation earlier today my colleague and Marie 291 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 4: hor Dern on Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg TV, speaking with 292 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 4: Israel's UN ambassador Danny Dan and listen. 293 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 8: We took into consideration that there will be retaliation. 294 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 7: On Marie and will be proportional. 295 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 8: Well, they know that we have capabilities as well, so 296 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 8: they would have to think, you know, twice before the 297 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 8: attacks and what they are doing, and I would say 298 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 8: that today we can reach every target in Iwan. We 299 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 8: have the control. 300 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 4: We have the voice now of Holly Dagras, Senior fellow 301 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 4: at the Washington Institute, for her take on this. Holly, 302 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 4: it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. Thank you 303 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 4: for joining us. What is next in retaliation from Iran? 304 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 11: Well, I think that the Iranians are currently trying to 305 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 11: assess the damage. So it's a lot of US analysts 306 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 11: as well to understand what capabilities do they still have left. 307 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 11: The last time we saw tit for tat strikes in 308 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 11: April and October of twenty twenty four, Israel had taken 309 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 11: out its capabilities, So we'd like to know do they 310 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 11: have the capabilities still to actually respond to Israel? Do 311 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 11: they have the defense capabilities? Probably not, given that they 312 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 11: had allegedly over two hundred Israeli drets flying over Iranian airspace. 313 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 11: So I think it's first assessing the damage and then 314 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 11: they're going to have to decide how they're going to respond. Historically, 315 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 11: as you've noted, and because of these tip for tat strikes, 316 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 11: a response is expected because they have to stand up 317 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 11: to Israel and show their very few supporters that they 318 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 11: have left, that they are strong and defined, and that 319 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 11: they know how to respond. 320 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 4: Considering the fact that Iran may be on its heels militarily, 321 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 4: how could it inflict the most damage. We did hear 322 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 4: threats of hundreds of ballistic missiles that could be shot 323 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 4: at Israel, but of course the US was moving personnel 324 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 4: out of Iraq. We know that there could be some 325 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 4: asymmetric retaliation here with regard to energy infrastructure. Where should 326 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 4: we be looking? 327 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 11: You hit at some important points? Of course, I keep 328 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 11: referring back to those original tip for tat strikes because 329 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 11: those are our best data points. Iran did for at 330 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 11: least three hundred munitions at Israel in both instances, so 331 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 11: that should tell us that they are definitely capable of that. 332 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 11: And as you noted, the US actually did come in 333 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 11: for airspace backup, and so did Jordan, the UK and 334 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 11: other countries. Presumably that some of the conversations that are 335 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 11: happening behind closed doors because there is a retaliation expected. 336 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 11: Israel has actually announced that and has told its people 337 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 11: to shelter in place for that event. But it's also 338 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 11: noteworthy that the Israelis have said this isn't a one 339 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 11: off that this is an ongoing operation, So we're all 340 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 11: waiting to see tonight in the coming days, what other 341 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 11: targets is REEL going after, and if they'll be continuing 342 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 11: to hit these nuclear sites that they've already hit. 343 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 4: There are big questions about whether for Dough will be 344 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 4: on that list. There were a number of enrichment sites, 345 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 4: nuclear infrastructure sites, but this is the area where you 346 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 4: have the deep underground caverns and the control centers that 347 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 4: would likely require the use of the MOAB. The US 348 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 4: made Mother of All Bombs as it's called. Will that 349 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 4: be on the list of targets? 350 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 11: Well, when you talk about bombs and capabilities, that's the 351 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 11: issue that's been why there's been a lot of conversational 352 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 11: washing about why Israel shouldn't go on alone, because Israel 353 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 11: doesn't have the capabilities to hit these very deep nuclear facilities, 354 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 11: and that the United States arguably has the right bombs, 355 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 11: and it hasn't, at least to our knowledge, handed over 356 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 11: those bombs to Israel to do these kind of attacks. 357 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 11: So in essence, this is looking more like a mow 358 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 11: the lawn attack where they're taking out things and slowing 359 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 11: things down. Thus far, and as we wait for more information, 360 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 11: it's not entirely clear if these facilities are being taken 361 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 11: out in their entirety. 362 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 4: I want to ask you about the diplomatic side of 363 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 4: this before you leave us, Holly. The President is still 364 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 4: talking about a deal being possible. In fact, he seems 365 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 4: to think, based on comments to Axios earlier today, that 366 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 4: these strikes make a deal more likely, knowing that there 367 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 4: was a set of talks planned for Sunday. Here's how 368 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 4: the President put it yesterday at the White House. Ahead 369 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,360 Speaker 4: of these attacks. 370 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 12: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I 371 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 12: want them to be successful. I want to have agreement 372 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 12: with Iran. We're fairly close to an agreement. We are 373 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 12: fairly close to a pretty good agreement. It's got to 374 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 12: be better than pretty good, though, but it's got to be. 375 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 12: I much prefer an agreement as long as I think 376 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 12: there is an agreement. I don't want them going in 377 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 12: because I think I. 378 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 4: Would blow it. 379 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 12: Might help it, actually, but it also could blow it. 380 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 4: Well, they've gone in. What are the chances now, Holly? 381 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 11: Well, historically Iran doesn't respond to this kind of pressure well, 382 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 11: given their ideology and so presumably, it's hard to believe 383 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 11: that after everything that's just happened in these past twelve 384 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 11: hours or more, that the Iranians would sit across from 385 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 11: the Americans and say say uncle and make a deal. 386 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,360 Speaker 11: I mean, this calculation can change potentially over time if 387 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 11: these strikes continue. But I think just looking at the 388 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 11: climate that Iran is in now and reeling from the 389 00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 11: events that have just taken place, with some of its 390 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 11: top military blat brass and nuclear scientists being assassinated, that 391 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 11: they'd be like, Okay, let's sit across some of these 392 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 11: guys and make a deal. 393 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 4: Not likely. Holly Dagrass, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, 394 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 4: one of the voices we wanted to hear from today. Holly, 395 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 4: thank you so much for the insights. Something tells me 396 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 4: we're going to be talking again soon, and we do 397 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 4: want to stay in touch as well with Mike mcgloane, 398 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 4: one of the other voices that we add to the 399 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,920 Speaker 4: mix today. With our eyes on the energy space here, 400 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 4: having seen the pop and oil prices, West Texas intermediate 401 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 4: crude oil futures up about six percent right now, we're 402 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 4: hovering just below seventy two dollars a barrel, and we 403 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 4: saw Brent jump on this even more overnight. Mike mcgloon, 404 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 4: of course, covers commodities for US, our senior commodity strategist 405 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, it's interesting that no actual energy 406 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 4: infrastructure that I'm aware of was targeted outside of nuclear 407 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 4: infrastructure by Israel. Is this in anticipation of in fear 408 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,479 Speaker 4: of a supplied disruption that we have not Senia? 409 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 13: Correct, Joe, and I like that word you use. Pop 410 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 13: pops usually don't last long. It's a few better ways 411 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 13: to fuel a bear market than to cleanse the shorts, 412 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 13: and we certainly did that today. The high for the 413 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 13: year and WTI is round eighty. We pumped up around 414 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 13: seventy six or so overnight. Now we're about seventy two, 415 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 13: which is unchanged on the year. The lowes fifty five, 416 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 13: and we still have an overhang of access supply in 417 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 13: the US and the world in decline demand. You have 418 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 13: to ask ourselves is this going to add to that 419 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 13: or reverse it. It's going to increase that supply and 420 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 13: decrease demand, and unless there's some kind of supply shock 421 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 13: that's enduring, it's probably going to enhance that bear market 422 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 13: for prices to go lower. 423 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 4: So if we did see Iran respond with an attack 424 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 4: on energy infrastructure, an attack on pipelines or on ports, 425 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 4: what would it mean. Would it fulfill this jump in 426 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 4: prices or send it even higher? 427 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 13: Exactly, it might fulfill the current jumping prices. It might 428 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 13: get to eighty, but I probabish today. I think eighty 429 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,959 Speaker 13: is a new hundred since the Russians invasion in Ukraine 430 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 13: that bear mark with prices going down from one point thirty, 431 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 13: the highest volume area has been around eighty. To get 432 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 13: above near you have to have some major enduring cut 433 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 13: in production. But even if they shut it off in 434 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 13: the short term, it's going to incentivize more supply and memory. 435 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 13: The massive incremental supply is really coming from South America 436 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 13: Opak too. It'll turn MOPEC back on, and we have 437 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 13: actually the declined demand from China. So the situation for 438 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 13: this is bad. And if Crudel stay hot Staysie tilts 439 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 13: that world towards a global recession, which you are kind 440 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 13: of leaning there already, as indicated by rising gold and 441 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 13: falling crude oil. 442 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 4: Well really interesting. It's not what I expected to hear 443 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 4: from you, Mike, and that's why we like to talk, 444 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 4: of course, because you're the expert here, but we all 445 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 4: grew up thinking that this was the end. When you 446 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 4: see the headline that Israel has attacked Tehran, head for 447 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 4: the hills, start stockpiling oil and gas. This is a 448 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 4: remarkable reaction, then, isn't it. 449 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 14: Well. 450 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 13: I like how you brought that up as we grew up, 451 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 13: because that's how the world's changed. In two thousand and eight, 452 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 13: the US was importing about ten eleven million barrels a day. 453 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 13: Now we're exporting about three million barrels a day. The 454 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,119 Speaker 13: world has the paradigm shifted. We have a massive oversupply 455 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 13: of energy and grains in agriculture, and so it's the 456 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 13: Alpe's less significant. So that might hurt the rest of 457 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 13: the world. But I can just sense a lot of 458 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 13: people and the oil patch are looking at this and say, 459 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 13: oh cool, I can sell forward some of these prices, 460 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 13: add to my production and lock in profits. 461 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 4: How about that. I have to ask you, because you're 462 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 4: with us, about what's happening on the gasoline side as 463 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 4: we look to refine products. Triple A's got a national 464 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 4: average three dollars thirteen cents for a gallon of unleaded 465 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 4: When we consider a geopolitical world that could be very 466 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 4: tense this summer, and you add demand from summer driving season. 467 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 4: Is this the level we're going to be at or 468 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 4: could we see something more severe? You remember what happened 469 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 4: to gas when Russia invaded Ukraine. 470 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 13: Yeah, so that's the key reason why we're still in 471 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 13: a domin me trajectory, and both energy products and commodities. 472 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 13: It's on the back of Russia's invasion in Ukraine incentivized 473 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 13: more supplies and recreased and decreased demand. But the price 474 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 13: right now you mentioned is down about ten percent from 475 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 13: this time last year. 476 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 6: It's a seasonal factor. 477 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 13: Come next year, I think it's going to be closer 478 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,160 Speaker 13: to a two handle, particular if we get a little 479 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 13: bit of roll over US stock market, and particularly because 480 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 13: remember we have we're a net exporter of crude oil, 481 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 13: liquor fuels in this country. We don't have to worry 482 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 13: about the rest of the world anymore. So it's actually 483 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 13: more their problem if this continues. Happens actually good for 484 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 13: the US. 485 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 4: Fascinating A true expert, Mike mcglohan, great to see them. 486 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 4: I can appreciate your clutch analysis here as always from 487 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence, where I swear the smartest people in the 488 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 4: business all work. We just saw a headline across the 489 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 4: terminal the IDF detecting a missile was launched from Yemen 490 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:53,479 Speaker 4: towards Israeli territory. This is another potential factor here if 491 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 4: this begins to impact shipping in the Red Sea, with 492 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 4: big questions about what it means for our agreement or 493 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 4: truce or whatever we're calling it. With hoothy rebels in 494 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 4: Yemen park that here, We're going to assemble our panel 495 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 4: next with developing news under our feet here on Bloomberg. 496 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,640 Speaker 4: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, I'm glad to say are 497 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 4: straight ahead here on the fastest show in politics. Stay 498 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 4: with us on Balance of Power only on Bloomberg. 499 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. 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With our continuing coverage here that's going to 508 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 4: continue rolling through the day because we have a lot 509 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 4: to learn about, not only what happened last evening in Israel, 510 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 4: strikes against Iran nuclear facilities, against its top military commanders, 511 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 4: but of course the retaliation that we're expecting, and frankly, 512 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 4: the continued attacks by Israel Benjaminetnye who making it clear 513 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 4: they are not done. This could last days. Jets have 514 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,959 Speaker 4: been scrambled again. There was another round of strikes that 515 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 4: apparently set off air defenses in Iran, and we are 516 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 4: now seeing headlines from the IDF. This is important. Sirens 517 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 4: in Jerusalem are now being heard after a projectile was 518 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 4: fired from Yemen. Of course, remembering our truce if I 519 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 4: can use that word with hoo, they rebels in Yemen 520 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 4: who are interfering with shipping in the Red Sea. All 521 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 4: of this could be renewed at this moment. Reuter's sighting 522 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 4: Israeli military on continuing attacks. Of course, as we get 523 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 4: into the evening there we could have a lot more 524 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 4: to talk about. Is really attacks focusing on missile launchers 525 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 4: and drone sites now, Reuter says. Israel says its air 526 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 4: force is continuing to attack Iran. This is happening as 527 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 4: I speak to you here on Bloomberg Radio. I want 528 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 4: to back up a little bit to eleven am Eastern time. 529 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 4: Less than two hours ago. President Trump was scheduled to 530 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 4: be in the situation room for a meeting of his 531 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 4: National Security Council. We have not heard that that meeting 532 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 4: has concluded. He may still be in there now. That 533 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 4: is also likely why we're not seeing continued posts untruth 534 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 4: social He did post a short time before he went 535 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 4: into the situation room, and there were a couple of 536 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 4: things that were really interesting. Knowing that the administration so far, 537 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 4: at least on an official level, has said that the 538 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 4: US was not involved, Secretary of State Mark Arrubio calling 539 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 4: the Israeli strikes a unilateral action in his statement last evening, 540 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 4: saying point blank the United States was not involved. He 541 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 4: said the Trump Administration's top priority, as you can see 542 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 4: on YouTube, is protecting American forces in the region. But 543 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 4: of course Donald Trump had many different things to say 544 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 4: about this. Talking about the use of US military equipment, 545 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 4: he says more lethal than anywhere else in the world 546 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 4: by far that Israel has a lot of it, with 547 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 4: much more to come. He also said, I gave Iran 548 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 4: a chance, a chance after chance, to make a deal. 549 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 4: I told them, in the strongest words, to just do it. 550 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 4: But no matter how hard they tried, no matter how 551 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 4: close they got, they just couldn't get it done. He 552 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 4: also then referred to this as day sixty one. In 553 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 4: a separate post before he entered the situation room two 554 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 4: months ago, the President writes, I gave Iran a sixty 555 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 4: day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. 556 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 4: Today is day sixty one, implying that he was the 557 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 4: force behind this. The President says, I told them what 558 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 4: to do, but they just couldn't get there. Now they 559 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 4: have perhaps a second chance. Let's assemble our panel. I'm 560 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 4: really glad both Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano are with 561 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 4: us today. Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, of course republican strategist 562 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 4: and partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie is a senior 563 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 4: Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the 564 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 4: Presidency in Congress. Let's get into all of this, guys. 565 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 4: Good to see you here. It's our first chance to 566 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 4: talk since this all happened last evening. Rick, I'm going 567 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 4: to start with you on the messaging that's coming from 568 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 4: the White House. Are we to believe the United States 569 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 4: was involved or not? 570 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 10: Yeah, it seems like we're doing everything we can to 571 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 10: distance ourselves from the attack. Typically we would lean in 572 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 10: and say we've got their back. You would think there'd 573 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 10: be a carrier group headed toward Israel. You would think 574 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 10: that we would be sharing intelligence and the kinds of 575 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 10: sort of standard things we do for our allies. But 576 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 10: in this case, the administration seemed to be going out 577 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 10: of its way to say, hey, we didn't do any 578 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 10: of that, and this is day one. Obviously there's a 579 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 10: lot more to be done. Taking credit for the kind 580 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 10: of weaponry that Israeli is flying and launching is kind 581 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 10: of overtaken by events in the sense that that's already engagement. 582 00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 10: So I'm a little surprised. I think we saw kind 583 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 10: of a distance between what Donald Trump was trying to 584 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 10: do with a peace treaty and with Iran and what 585 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 10: Israel was saber rattling over the course of the last month. 586 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 10: Maybe it was a coordinated effort to get them to 587 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 10: a deal, but clearly the deal wasn't happening fastened up, 588 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 10: and Israel has made it very clear that they have 589 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 10: intelligence that Iran was nearing an ability to build a bomb, 590 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 10: and they weren't going to go for it. And that's 591 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 10: been very consistent on their part for many years. 592 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 4: The statement from Iran makes no qualms here about US involvement. Genie. 593 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 4: Iran of course summoned the Swiss ambassador to Tehran, as 594 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 4: we've been reporting, to deliver this warning to the United States. 595 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 4: This was delivered via the Swiss ambassador to Tehran. It 596 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 4: is unthinkable the Zionist regimes aggressive actions against Iran were 597 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 4: carried out without cooperation, coordination, or at least a green 598 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 4: light from the US. It says, in this regard, the 599 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 4: US must be held accountable for its illegal behavior. In 600 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 4: this regard, you can't separate the two in the eyes 601 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 4: of Tehran. What do you think of the attempt here 602 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 4: to distance from the White House? But also Donald Trump 603 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,240 Speaker 4: personalizing this Genie, He says, two months ago I gave 604 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 4: iron a sixty day ultimatum. Today is day sixty one. 605 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 14: Yeah, you know, I was struck last night when Benjamin 606 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 14: Netanyahu made his statement. There was a line in the 607 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 14: middle of that statement where he clearly said, long live Israel, 608 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 14: Long live the United States. And so it's going to 609 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 14: be very hard for the United States to separate itself 610 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 14: from this action, particularly given the transition of the President's statements. 611 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,400 Speaker 14: I mean another thing I was struck by, and I 612 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 14: know you were watching this, Joe. President Trump was eerily 613 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 14: quiet last night when this happened, letting Marco Rubio take 614 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 14: center stage, which we all know is highly unusual for 615 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 14: Donald Trump. And what did Marco Ruby say? He said, 616 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 14: Israel informed the United States that they were going to 617 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 14: do this. 618 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 9: Who informed who? 619 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 6: When? 620 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 4: Where? Why? 621 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 14: We I'm not clear on and you may know better. 622 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 14: But the reality is is that if the US wanted 623 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 14: to stop this, they likely could have. And we have 624 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 14: seen an evolution because this morning and Donald Trump, he 625 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,279 Speaker 14: read some of it, has been truthing all morning with 626 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 14: these increasingly sort of loud statements about, you know, just 627 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 14: do it, come to the table, sort of bulletsh in 628 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 14: his remarks today. So you know, all of that I 629 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,879 Speaker 14: think is very striking. But I think when you get 630 00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 14: down to it, what we're seeing is that Benjamin and 631 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 14: Yahoo knew if Iran and the US strike a nuclear deal, 632 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 14: his window in which to attack is gone and over. 633 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,280 Speaker 14: And this is something he's been on tent and intent 634 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,720 Speaker 14: on doing since he held up that picture in twenty twelve, 635 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,600 Speaker 14: twenty thirteen at the UN. So he went out and 636 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 14: he did it, and the United States didn't stop it, 637 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 14: and for them, I think we are likely going to 638 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 14: see some attempt at retaliation by Iran. 639 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:10,680 Speaker 4: An important headline just crossed from the Associated Press. Rick. 640 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 4: We've been waiting to see if this was in fact 641 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 4: going to happen, if this type of follow through would 642 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,720 Speaker 4: in fact happen under the orders of Benjaminett and Yahoo 643 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 4: and Iranian news outlet close to the government now says 644 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,240 Speaker 4: two explosions have been heard near the four Dough Underground 645 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 4: nuclear Enrichment Plant. This is the big one, Rick, This 646 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 4: is hundreds of feet under ground under rock. We have 647 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 4: been told repeatedly that Israel could not access the centerfuges 648 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,839 Speaker 4: or the technology under there without the MOAB, without American technology, 649 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 4: bunk or busting bombs. What does it tell you when 650 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 4: you see a headline like this. 651 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 10: It's a continuation of the attacks. I think you have 652 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 10: to believe the officials and or Israel when they said 653 00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 10: they're going to continue to prosecute this attack until at 654 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 10: which point in time they are assured that they have 655 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 10: completely degraded the Ranian capability to make a bomb. And 656 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 10: obviously this location is the focal point of a lot 657 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 10: of that activity. And look, there is an enormous amount 658 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 10: of damage you can do even if you don't actually 659 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 10: penetrate the final chambers of where these centrifuges are to 660 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,640 Speaker 10: stop the progress that they were making and set them back. 661 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,680 Speaker 10: So it's not totally clear to me whether they will 662 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 10: have repeated percussions on site so that they can do 663 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 10: the same kind of damage with the weapons they have, 664 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 10: precision strike weapons that a thirty thousand ton bunker buster 665 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 10: them lab would do. And so we'll see. It's pretty 666 00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:50,799 Speaker 10: clear they feel unfettered in their ability to control the 667 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 10: skies over ran and attack. They spend time. There's really 668 00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 10: idf air force knocking out the last time they went 669 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 10: into Iran a lot of their air defense systems. It 670 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 10: seems to be that those things are still not very effective. Again, 671 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 10: the attacks from the air that Israel is perpetrating. 672 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 4: Genie, it's going to be interesting to find out what 673 00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,560 Speaker 4: Israel's neighbors, beginning with Jordan. Think of this. You put 674 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 4: more than two hundred warplanes in the area, you have 675 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:27,520 Speaker 4: to cross through airspace beyond your own. What will this 676 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 4: mean for Jordan? What will this mean for Saudi Arabia 677 00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,399 Speaker 4: and their relationships with the United States? 678 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 14: You know, I think we're still in a wait and 679 00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 14: see mode on that. It shouldn't be lost on any 680 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 14: of us that it was just yesterday for the first 681 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 14: time and I think twenty years, the International Atomic Energy 682 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:49,399 Speaker 14: Agency said Iran was not complying with its nuclear non 683 00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 14: proliferation obligations. That was a big, big moment, and none 684 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 14: of their neighbors are immune from that kind of statement. 685 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,600 Speaker 14: So how this impact our relationship with these with these 686 00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,359 Speaker 14: neighboring countries is important. You know, we still don't know. 687 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,560 Speaker 14: It's hard for me to believe that wit Cough would 688 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,800 Speaker 14: be meeting in Oman with Iran this weekend on Sunday, 689 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,839 Speaker 14: but that still seems to be maybe in the off thing. 690 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,880 Speaker 14: It's hard again for me to believe that so so 691 00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 14: much of this is still up in the air. And 692 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,719 Speaker 14: you know, the divide that we're talking about between and 693 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,239 Speaker 14: Yahoo and Trump by the way, you see it repeated 694 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 14: in the MAGA movement. You hear Tucker Carlson just the 695 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 14: other day, don't bomb no, you know, don't do it Israel. 696 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 14: And then you have other more traditional Hawks in the 697 00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 14: Republican parties supporting it. And so we're very much division 698 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 14: both at home as it pertains to this and the 699 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,279 Speaker 14: US is rolling it, which again is still unclear and 700 00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,279 Speaker 14: what this is going to mean going forward for our 701 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 14: alliances in the Middle East. Just after the President's trip 702 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,320 Speaker 14: visiting so many of those neighbors you just mentioned. 703 00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,399 Speaker 4: It's a really great point you bring up here, Rick, 704 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,760 Speaker 4: and I'm wondering your thoughts on the split in MAGA. 705 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,840 Speaker 4: Charlie Kirk was on immediately after. I don't quote Charlie 706 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,359 Speaker 4: Kirk very often. After the strikes, he said, how does 707 00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,919 Speaker 4: the America First foreign policy doctrine and foreign policy agenda 708 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 4: stay consistent with this? Right now? Does this White House 709 00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 4: have an answer? I don't think they even address it. 710 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 10: First of all, they will send people out within the 711 00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:27,440 Speaker 10: movement and say, it's not our task to degrade the 712 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,640 Speaker 10: Iranian capabilities to make a bomb. Israel's done that themselves 713 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,560 Speaker 10: without our cooperation, right I have no doubt that part 714 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 10: of this distancing from the event is a head fake 715 00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,359 Speaker 10: to the political realities of the mega movement. But this 716 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 10: isn't the first time MAGA has been scratching their head 717 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,640 Speaker 10: over exactly what Donald Trump's up to with his foreign policy. 718 00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,799 Speaker 10: It is not consistent with the protectionist attitudes that he's 719 00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 10: campaigned on. 720 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 4: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno are here with us on 721 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,560 Speaker 4: an important day in geopolitics, and I really appreciate your insights, 722 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,040 Speaker 4: both of you Bloomberg Politics contributors here as we wait 723 00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,480 Speaker 4: for further headlines to roll in. The sun is setting 724 00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 4: in Tehran and we could see a lot take place overnight. 725 00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,320 Speaker 4: What does happen? Of course you'll hear about it first 726 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 4: on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 727 00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,160 Speaker 4: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 728 00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,839 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 729 00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 730 00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:31,880 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.